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How's Hawaiian Doing On The JFK-HNL Route?  
User currently offlineTakeOff From United States of America, joined May 2004, 89 posts, RR: 0
Posted (1 year 10 months 16 hours ago) and read 15716 times:

Any information/insights would be greatly appreciated. Thanks in advance. TakeOff

77 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlinewrldtvlr From United States of America, joined Jan 2012, 38 posts, RR: 0
Reply 1, posted (1 year 10 months 16 hours ago) and read 15689 times:

Last Friday I booked myself JFK-HNL-OGG roundtrip on HA for $499.50 departing November 6 return November 12. Pretty damn good fare, and the seat map looks pretty full. Not quite sure how they're making money on a fare like that, but I'm not complaining.

User currently offlinehiflyeras From United States of America, joined Jul 2011, 930 posts, RR: 2
Reply 2, posted (1 year 10 months 9 hours ago) and read 14822 times:

Wow, only $500 bucks round trip for a 10 hour flight? Of course the question is how many seats are going at that fare. I checked the Hawaiian website and they show multiple dates under $500 r/t between now and Thanksgiving. Fares are much higher around Christmas but that isn't a surprise. Not a good sign for this route....they must be losing their Aloha shirts.

User currently offlineazjubilee From United States of America, joined Apr 2000, 3894 posts, RR: 28
Reply 3, posted (1 year 10 months 9 hours ago) and read 14757 times:

I'd hardly measure the success of a route based on a fare sale during what is traditionally the slowest part of the year. There's a fare sale to the west coast, Fukuoka and Auckland right now too, are those routes losing their "aloha shirts?" HA has maintained that the JFK route is beating all internal measurements of success and is beating out the established west coast routes in the same metrics. I think that we need to wait a full year of service to make final judgement wether the route is a success or not. HA also needs to give this route time to prove successful as they are a new brand on the east coast. Building brand awareness in this new market will also be the key to JFKs success. The demand is there, the product top notch and fares competitive. Now they need time to let the route mature.

User currently offlinehiflyeras From United States of America, joined Jul 2011, 930 posts, RR: 2
Reply 4, posted (1 year 10 months 9 hours ago) and read 14634 times:

Quoting azjubilee (Reply 3):
The demand is there, the product top notch and fares competitive.

I think the jury's still out on whether there is demand for n/s service from NYC to Hawaii. New Yorkers are accustomed to traveling to the Carribean, Bahamas, Florida. Sure HA can fill flights to Hawaii but, again, $500 for a 10 hour flight has to hurt. That's pretty much giving it away...no wonder it's full.


User currently offlineazjubilee From United States of America, joined Apr 2000, 3894 posts, RR: 28
Reply 5, posted (1 year 10 months 9 hours ago) and read 14552 times:

As we all know, full flights don't necessarily translate to profits. However, we as the general public don't know what the fare breakdown is, how much cargo is being carried and how much the F cabin makes up for the lower ticket prices in Y.

Then there's the tired argument that east coasters would rather go to the Carribean, Florida or Bahamas. True, it's closer. True, they too have beaches. But there is nowhere like Hawaii. People go to Hawaii for more than sun and surf. I think people making that boring and oft repeated argument are being a little presumptuous as to the wants and needs of the east coast traveler. HA does their homework before launching a route. They believe the demand is there and that this is the most opportune time to be doing this service. The jury is still out on the success as again, I believe we need to see a years worth of data to make proper judgement. The route has been flying since June, just about 4 months now. It's way to early to rule this a failure or not.


User currently offlineEA CO AS From United States of America, joined Nov 2001, 13518 posts, RR: 62
Reply 6, posted (1 year 10 months 8 hours ago) and read 14395 times:
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Quoting azjubilee (Reply 5):
Then there's the tired argument that east coasters would rather go to the Carribean, Florida or Bahamas.

How is that a tired argument when it's absolutely, positively, 100% true? Fact: from the mainland, West Coasters are the predominant travelers to Hawaii, whereas East Coasters are the predominant travelers to Florida and the Caribbean.

The same holds true for the Mexican resorts of Cabo San Lucas and Cancun; East Coast travelers and midwesterners make up the bulk of traffic to Cancun, whereas Cabo is primarily West Coasters. It all boils down to a matter of proximity (less flight time and lower cost to get there).



"In this present crisis, government is not the solution to our problem - government IS the problem." - Ronald Reagan
User currently offlinepanam330 From United States of America, joined Mar 2004, 2669 posts, RR: 9
Reply 7, posted (1 year 10 months 7 hours ago) and read 14084 times:

Quoting hiflyeras (Reply 4):
I think the jury's still out on whether there is demand for n/s service from NYC to Hawaii.

CO, then UA, has been doing it for the better part of a decade (if not longer) from EWR, so I'd say the demand is at least there for a daily 764.


User currently onlinePohakuloa From United States of America, joined Jun 2006, 409 posts, RR: 0
Reply 8, posted (1 year 10 months 7 hours ago) and read 14046 times:

With full seat maps at cheap airfares, either ticket sales are slumping and any fare is better than no fare and empty seats, or cargo is making a killing so that it can manage the lower fares. it has been my observation from insiders at HA that seat sales are not the be all end all on routes they choose to fly. HA seems to gain a lot of revenue through cargo other than passenger bags and from the other types that fly to and from the mainland, they have the most potential to offset costs compared with the NB offerings. i took an airline management course and visited HA offices and gained some insight as to their forms of revenue streams as well. No links here, just observation and and real world learning experiences.


Fast cars and 'Jet A' - such a sweet smell!
User currently offlinehiflyeras From United States of America, joined Jul 2011, 930 posts, RR: 2
Reply 9, posted (1 year 10 months 6 hours ago) and read 13435 times:

Quoting Pohakuloa (Reply 11):
HA seems to gain a lot of revenue through cargo

I wouldn't be surprised by this. Shipping fresh seafood and flowers out of Hawaii are probably a huge business for HA. The return flights though might not bring in as much revenue.


User currently offlineazjubilee From United States of America, joined Apr 2000, 3894 posts, RR: 28
Reply 10, posted (1 year 10 months 6 hours ago) and read 13271 times:

I'm not discrediting anyones tenure in the industry nor am I saying anyone is wrong in their assertions. I'm just saying it's too early to tell. Also, using the fact that there are low fares, in the shoulder season as a barometer for the success of a very young route is a bit misguided and overly simplistic.

And yes, I think the "East coasters prefer FL and the Carribean over Hawaii" argument is tired. Just like the similarly tired "Hawaii is all about trashy yields and frequent flier freebies" argument. Yes, they are overwhelmingly the biggest visitor to that catchment area, but they are actually allowed to look beyond those traditional markets. It turns out that there's an entire nation to the west of the east coast and that large population. Thinking outside the box here, while it might be far, Hawaii provides a vacation experience that is unmatched in many ways by Florida, the Carribean and the Bahamas.

On wether there is a market or not... it just turns out that the State compiles statistics regarding visitors and where they come from. I'm pretty sure HAL has looked at them and has launched this route based on careful planning and data. There are many visitors each day that arrive from the East coast and this flight will further expand that market. To say that people from the east coast only go to FL etc... is simply narrow minded and rather patronizing to those that realize there are vacation opportunities beyond going south.


User currently offlineEA CO AS From United States of America, joined Nov 2001, 13518 posts, RR: 62
Reply 11, posted (1 year 10 months 5 hours ago) and read 13046 times:
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Quoting azjubilee (Reply 14):
yes, I think the "East coasters prefer FL and the Carribean over Hawaii" argument is tired.

You're absolutely entitled to your opinion. I'm simply pointing out that facts state otherwise.

Quoting azjubilee (Reply 14):
while it might be far, Hawaii provides a vacation experience that is unmatched in many ways by Florida, the Carribean and the Bahamas.

But again, the "far" part is key, as that's what keeps many East Coast travelers going to Florida, the Caribbean (one R, two Bs - sorry, it's a pet peeve of mine), and the Bahamas, much in the same way West Coasters typically go to Hawaii instead of the Caribbean.

And I'm sorry, but having lived on both the East Coast and West Coast, and having vacationed extensively in both Hawaii and the Caribbean, I have yet to find a Hawaiian beach that is equal to - much less superior to - Caribbean beaches. There's just no comparison. Yes, Hawaii is a unique destination and travel experience, but in terms of the quality of the beaches, the Caribbean wins hands-down every time.



"In this present crisis, government is not the solution to our problem - government IS the problem." - Ronald Reagan
User currently offlineBobloblaw From United States of America, joined Jan 2012, 1642 posts, RR: 1
Reply 12, posted (1 year 10 months 5 hours ago) and read 13009 times:
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The problem isn't traffic, it's going to be yield and fuel costs.

User currently offlineairbazar From United States of America, joined Sep 2003, 8232 posts, RR: 10
Reply 13, posted (1 year 10 months 5 hours ago) and read 12760 times:

Quoting EA CO AS (Reply 7):
How is that a tired argument when it's absolutely, positively, 100% true? Fact: from the mainland, West Coasters are the predominant travelers to Hawaii, whereas East Coasters are the predominant travelers to Florida and the Caribbean.

That doesn't mean people wouldn't rather go to Hawaii. That just means the Caribbean is more accessible. I would rather go to Hawaii every year but I can't so I go to Florida instead.


User currently offlineazjubilee From United States of America, joined Apr 2000, 3894 posts, RR: 28
Reply 14, posted (1 year 10 months 5 hours ago) and read 12689 times:

EA CO AS - I've already submitted to the fact that more East coast visitors head down south. It's hard to dispute those facts, which I am not doing. What I'm saying is that there are still a large amount of visitor traffic from the east coast to Hawaii that can be using the 2 NY areas flights, the DC flight and the ATL flight. There is indeed demand, despite the love affair with the CaRiBBean, Florida and the Bahamas. The arguable superiority of Hawaii over other beach destinations is a moot point and really immaterial to the discussion. The bottom line is that people in the millions arrive in Hawaii every year from points that originate in the Eastern part of the USA and this is despite the close proximity of the beach destinations to the south. HAL provides yet another alternative to those who are obviously heading west.

User currently offlineidlewildchild From United States of America, joined Nov 2011, 166 posts, RR: 0
Reply 15, posted (1 year 10 months 5 hours ago) and read 12674 times:

Work colleague just flew them JFK-HNL-SYD-HNL-JFK and said they were excellent, for every flight. She said she highly recommended them. The flights were on time, meals were good and overall service was excellent, on every flight. She also mentioned the flights were full.

User currently offlineIrishAyes From United States of America, joined Jan 2008, 2165 posts, RR: 15
Reply 16, posted (1 year 10 months 5 hours ago) and read 12580 times:

Quoting EA CO AS (Reply 7):
The same holds true for the Mexican resorts of Cabo San Lucas and Cancun; East Coast travelers and midwesterners make up the bulk of traffic to Cancun, whereas Cabo is primarily West Coasters. It all boils down to a matter of proximity (less flight time and lower cost to get there).

This is purely speculative and simply untrue. Mexican resort destinations draw people from points ALL over North America.

I grew up in Texas and never once traveled to Cabo. When I moved to the Midwest six years ago, I went to Cabo for the first time, and while I was there, I met people from Boston, New York, Philly, D.C., North Carolina and Virginia. Granted, they were college kids on Spring Break like us, but my point is that people aren't just drawn to specific places just due to proximity. Sure, geographic locations are advantageous, but people will travel further if they feel the inspiration to do so and the price is compelling.

Quoting azjubilee (Reply 14):
And yes, I think the "East coasters prefer FL and the Carribean over Hawaii" argument is tired. Just like the similarly tired "Hawaii is all about trashy yields and frequent flier freebies" argument. Yes, they are overwhelmingly the biggest visitor to that catchment area, but they are actually allowed to look beyond those traditional markets. It turns out that there's an entire nation to the west of the east coast and that large population. Thinking outside the box here, while it might be far, Hawaii provides a vacation experience that is unmatched in many ways by Florida, the Carribean and the Bahamas.

I completely agree. As I said above, geographic location does play some role, but people get tired of repetition. The NYC catchment area is full of very wealthy families who are looking for something novel. Hawaii indeed offers treasures that cannot be found in Florida nor the Caribbean, both culturally, geographically and historically.

Quoting azjubilee (Reply 14):
On wether there is a market or not... it just turns out that the State compiles statistics regarding visitors and where they come from. I'm pretty sure HAL has looked at them and has launched this route based on careful planning and data.

   HA is done their homework on this one and they are a very smart, well-managed carrier. They don't just throw spaghetti on the world map hoping a route will stick. If it doesn't work, it will be pulled, but so far, I don't see that being a pattern nor a problem with HA's international ops.

Quoting EA CO AS (Reply 15):
You're absolutely entitled to your opinion. I'm simply pointing out that facts state otherwise.

What facts? You seem to be basing said "facts" off of your own perceptions (see below quote)

Quoting EA CO AS (Reply 15):
And I'm sorry, but having lived on both the East Coast and West Coast, and having vacationed extensively in both Hawaii and the Caribbean, I have yet to find a Hawaiian beach that is equal to - much less superior to - Caribbean beaches. There's just no comparison. Yes, Hawaii is a unique destination and travel experience, but in terms of the quality of the beaches, the Caribbean wins hands-down every time.

While nothing wrong with this, this is not a fact, this is an opinion...



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User currently offlineBMI727 From United States of America, joined Feb 2009, 15719 posts, RR: 26
Reply 17, posted (1 year 10 months 4 hours ago) and read 12306 times:

Quoting EA CO AS (Reply 7):
How is that a tired argument when it's absolutely, positively, 100% true? Fact: from the mainland, West Coasters are the predominant travelers to Hawaii, whereas East Coasters are the predominant travelers to Florida and the Caribbean.

It is true, but New York has enough people with enough money that success on JFK-HNL isn't really surprising. I'm not optimistic that the success could be duplicated without feed on the mainland side at other destinations.



Why do Aerospace Engineering students have to turn things in on time?
User currently offlineSSTeve From United States of America, joined Dec 2011, 695 posts, RR: 1
Reply 18, posted (1 year 10 months 4 hours ago) and read 12144 times:

Quoting Pohakuloa (Reply 11):
With full seat maps at cheap airfares, either ticket sales are slumping and any fare is better than no fare and empty seats, or cargo is making a killing so that it can manage the lower fares.

How would the arrangement with JetBlue work for connecting passengers? It looks like B6/HA is charging a bit of a premium over other airlines on routes like BOS-HNL, BTV-HNL or PWM-HNL. Doesn't seem to indicate they're desperate to fill the plane with connecting passengers if they're not matching fares on any of those routes.


User currently offlinehiflyeras From United States of America, joined Jul 2011, 930 posts, RR: 2
Reply 19, posted (1 year 10 months 4 hours ago) and read 12031 times:

Quoting EA CO AS (Reply 7):
The same holds true for the Mexican resorts of Cabo San Lucas and Cancun; East Coast travelers and midwesterners make up the bulk of traffic to Cancun, whereas Cabo is primarily West Coasters. It all boils down to a matter of proximity (less flight time and lower cost to get there).

It's all about the yield. AS attempted seasonal SEA-CUN for many years but the yields were poor. It was a 6hr flight but they couldn't raise fares any higher than those to Cabo or PVR (a 5hr flight) without pushback. Was sad to see the route dropped but it couldn't turn a profit. A 10hr flight between JFK-HNL should probably be commanding a r/t fare closer to $900-$1000....more in line with a flight to Europe or Asia from the US as they're about the same stage-length. Heck, a 7hr flight from JFK to LHR is about $900.


User currently offlineEA CO AS From United States of America, joined Nov 2001, 13518 posts, RR: 62
Reply 20, posted (1 year 10 months 3 hours ago) and read 11905 times:
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Quoting IrishAyes (Reply 20):
Quoting EA CO AS (Reply 7):
The same holds true for the Mexican resorts of Cabo San Lucas and Cancun; East Coast travelers and midwesterners make up the bulk of traffic to Cancun, whereas Cabo is primarily West Coasters. It all boils down to a matter of proximity (less flight time and lower cost to get there).

This is purely speculative and simply untrue.

  

Hogwash. DOT data backs it up, as does the fact that nonstop service to CUN from the West Coast is difficult to maintain due to demand (and yield) that is lower than from the East Coast and Midwest. Look at the airlines that tried (and failed) at making LAX-CUN work, for example. Then look at the multitude of nonstops from East Coast destinations.

Quoting IrishAyes (Reply 20):
Quoting EA CO AS (Reply 15):
You're absolutely entitled to your opinion. I'm simply pointing out that facts state otherwise.

What facts?

Again, DOT data. It's readily available; go look it up if you're that curious.



"In this present crisis, government is not the solution to our problem - government IS the problem." - Ronald Reagan
User currently offlinewn676 From Djibouti, joined Jun 2005, 1031 posts, RR: 4
Reply 21, posted (1 year 10 months 3 hours ago) and read 11889 times:

Quoting hiflyeras (Reply 12):
Shipping fresh seafood and flowers out of Hawaii are probably a huge business for HA. The return flights though might not bring in as much revenue.

Strangely enough, my airline tends to ship a lot of fresh flowers to Honolulu fairly often. There's lots of stuff going each direction.



Tiny, unreadable text leaves ample room for interpretation.
User currently offlineChiGB1973 From United States of America, joined Mar 2004, 1613 posts, RR: 1
Reply 22, posted (1 year 10 months 3 hours ago) and read 11807 times:

It's fairly simple to figure out who is coming from where.

http://www.hawaiitourismauthority.or...h/reports/annual-visitor-research/

It's kinda general, but settles several arguments on here.

As far as HA or any other airline on this route, I cannot find any data nor sure it's available. I looked at www.bts.gov and cannot find statistics.

I wish them luck though.

M


User currently offlineSuperman24 From Canada, joined Oct 2009, 40 posts, RR: 0
Reply 23, posted (1 year 10 months 3 hours ago) and read 11775 times:

Hey everyone,

Seems like some of you are going off topic. Just flew JFK-HNL-OGG on September 24th and the first leg was 100% full. My cousin flew the next day and said the same thing. Looks like they are doing good.

Cheers!


User currently offlineHNLPointShoot From United States of America, joined Feb 2007, 319 posts, RR: 0
Reply 24, posted (1 year 10 months 3 hours ago) and read 11745 times:

Quoting wn676 (Reply 25):
Strangely enough, my airline tends to ship a lot of fresh flowers to Honolulu fairly often. There's lots of stuff going each direction.

For flowers, it depends on the specific species of plant; for example, orchids are mostly imported from Asia (see this Hawaii News Now article about flooding in Thailand causing a shortage of orchids for leis in Hawaii) while anthurium and plumeria are usually exported.

Quoting EA CO AS (Reply 24):
Again, DOT data. It's readily available; go look it up if you're that curious.

Just wondering, but where in the DOT data does it give information on tourist travel from NYC? I've been poking around http://www.transtats.bts.gov/ and I can't figure out where that data is located.

[Edited 2012-10-03 23:10:05]

User currently offlineSSTeve From United States of America, joined Dec 2011, 695 posts, RR: 1
Reply 25, posted (1 year 10 months 3 hours ago) and read 11885 times:

Quoting hiflyeras (Reply 23):
A 10hr flight between JFK-HNL should probably be commanding a r/t fare closer to $900-$1000....more in line with a flight to Europe or Asia from the US as they're about the same stage-length.

That's not how pricing works in an environment where you have to match fares. EWR-HNL nonstop on United is $465!


User currently offlineunityofsaints From Ireland, joined Nov 2011, 49 posts, RR: 0
Reply 26, posted (1 year 10 months 2 hours ago) and read 11728 times:

I think the question won't be whether there is enough demand NYC to Hawai'i at the proper yields - there is. The question is do people really value the daytime nonstop? No real opportunity to sleep and in the end it's only practical if you want to HNL and not one of the other islands.

If I was going NYC - OGG (for example) I'd fly NYC - ORD/DEN/LAX/SFO - OGG, not NYC-HNL-OGG (provided price is the same).


User currently offlineairbazar From United States of America, joined Sep 2003, 8232 posts, RR: 10
Reply 27, posted (1 year 9 months 4 weeks 1 day 21 hours ago) and read 10365 times:

Quoting hiflyeras (Reply 19):
A 10hr flight between JFK-HNL should probably be commanding a r/t fare closer to $900-$1000....more in line with a flight to Europe or Asia from the US as they're about the same stage-length. Heck, a 7hr flight from JFK to LHR is about $900.

Nonsense. Look at the actual fare and you'll find that it's on par with your examples. The problem is that international tickets add on huge taxes and fees, sometimes doubling the actual fare whereas domestic tickets don't have such astronomical taxes and fees.


User currently offlinedlflynhayn From United States of America, joined Apr 2008, 420 posts, RR: 1
Reply 28, posted (1 year 9 months 4 weeks 1 day 20 hours ago) and read 9946 times:

DL ATL-HNL average fare this month is around $800-1000 non-stop,although a one stop via LAX,SEA is a little cheaper.Anyways good luck to HA there gonna need it.

User currently offlineORDBOSEWR From United States of America, joined Jun 2011, 426 posts, RR: 0
Reply 29, posted (1 year 9 months 4 weeks 1 day 19 hours ago) and read 9761 times:

Quoting airbazar (Reply 27):
The problem is that international tickets add on huge taxes and fees, sometimes doubling the actual fare whereas domestic tickets don't have such astronomical taxes and fees.

Many of those 'fees' are actually fuel (aka international) surcharges. I call that part of the fare. That is money the airline gets. It is not passed on to governments, etc.

Here is a recent ticket I had from Newark to Barcelona Spain:
Fare Breakdown
Airfare: 622.00 USD
International Surcharge: 476.00
U.S. Federal Transportation Tax: 33.40
U.S. Customs User Fee: 5.50
U.S. Immigration User Fee: 7.00
U.S. APHIS User Fee: 5.00
September 11th Security Fee: 2.50
Spain Departure Charge: 12.80
Spain Security Tax: 2.90
U.S. Passenger Facility Charge: 4.50
Per Person Total: 1,171.60 USD

The airline is getting 1098 out of 1171.
I would say United did pretty good for me and may family on this trip....Yes, other countries and airports have higher fees (I know as for this trip we were going to France and we booked Spain because it is cheaper than Paris to fly in and out of).


User currently offlinedaviation From United States of America, joined Sep 2008, 596 posts, RR: 2
Reply 30, posted (1 year 9 months 4 weeks 1 day 19 hours ago) and read 9721 times:

I just flew HA's new JFK-HNL service in July and August. I've lived in NYC and the NYC-area all my life. I'm tired of the Caribbean and Florida and Bermuda.

Both of my flights were completely full. However, I can easily say that in coach, HA has the best service I've ever received on a domestic airline.

And as our friend HAL has pointed out on this board, the stage length doesn't matter in pricing. I'm sure HA has researched this route very carefully, and I hope it's a success. Continental/United has had this nonstop route from EWR for many years.

I'd love to return to Hawaii.



PlaneFlown:717,727,737,747,757,767,777,DC8,DC9,DC10,L1011,F100,A300,319,320,321,330,340,CRJ,ERJ,E190,Av85,DH8,Beaver,ATR
User currently offlineplanereality From United States of America, joined Sep 2008, 103 posts, RR: 0
Reply 31, posted (1 year 9 months 4 weeks 1 day 17 hours ago) and read 8780 times:

Quoting hiflyeras (Reply 4):
The demand is there, the product top notch and fares competitive

Never flown Hawaiin, but product does have a great reputation... which class contributes to that reputation? Both? And what are the highlights? Food? IFE?



Andiamo!
User currently offlineGARUDAROD From United States of America, joined Apr 2000, 1516 posts, RR: 1
Reply 32, posted (1 year 9 months 4 weeks 1 day 17 hours ago) and read 8672 times:

Quoting Pohakuloa (Reply 8):
With full seat maps at cheap airfares, either ticket sales are slumping and any fare is better than no fare and empty seats, or cargo is making a killing so that it can manage the lower fares. it has been my observation from insiders at HA that seat sales are not the be all end all on routes they choose to fly. HA seems to gain a lot of revenue through cargo other than passenger bags and from the other types that fly to and from the mainland, they have the most potential to offset costs compared with the NB offerings. i took an airline management course and visited HA offices and gained some insight as to their forms of revenue streams as well. No links here, just observation and and real world learning experiences.

I know for a fact this flight is restricted to the amount of cargo they can carry because
of the ETOPS regulations, so in this instance, I dont think cargo is as much as a
determining factor in beyond yield benefits as some other markets.
That being said, when you are moving 260 or passengers a day, unless you are selling $99
fares, which HA is not, you are making some pretty good revenue.



Cargo doesn't whine, moan, or complain
User currently offlinejfklganyc From United States of America, joined Jan 2004, 3391 posts, RR: 5
Reply 33, posted (1 year 9 months 4 weeks 1 day 17 hours ago) and read 8466 times:

This is a flagship route with lots of attention.

Loads seem good. No idea on yields.

Given ny first statment barring a spike in fuel...this flight sticks around. Delta should have beat them to it...and now it would be a bloodbath if they tried


User currently offlinealoha73g From United States of America, joined Jul 2003, 2356 posts, RR: 4
Reply 34, posted (1 year 9 months 4 weeks 1 day 16 hours ago) and read 8007 times:

Keep in mind that HA's business model & cost structure are designed to be profitable flying economy passengers to/from Hawaii. They have a relatively small premium cabin. Only 6.1% of HA's A330 seats and 6.8% of their 763 seats are first class vs 10% on an AS 738, 10.7% on a DL 753, 11.1% on a UA 753, 11.7% on an AA 752. Also, HA doesn't give away first class to anyone. They have figured out how to make money flying leisure leisure routes while providing industry leading service & amenities.

I don't think a fare sale during one of the slowest times of the year for Hawai'i's tourism is indicative of their financial performance on the route. I got a tweet yesterday that HA is offering $297 round-trips from the Bay Area too during October & November. All comments from management to investors & analysts indicate the JFK is performing better than they expected it would.

Aloha!



Aloha Airlines - The Spirit Moves Us. Gone but NEVER Forgotten. Aloha, A Hui Hou!
User currently offlinerampart From United States of America, joined Aug 2005, 3109 posts, RR: 6
Reply 35, posted (1 year 9 months 4 weeks 1 day 15 hours ago) and read 7867 times:

Quoting EA CO AS (Reply 11):
And I'm sorry, but having lived on both the East Coast and West Coast, and having vacationed extensively in both Hawaii and the Caribbean, I have yet to find a Hawaiian beach that is equal to - much less superior to - Caribbean beaches. There's just no comparison. Yes, Hawaii is a unique destination and travel experience, but in terms of the quality of the beaches, the Caribbean wins hands-down every time.

Iin that case, that would be an opinion, not the facts or data you seem to want. You don't speak for all East Coasters. I feel quite the opposite. I would bet, unless you can show data otherwise, since you are into data, that a reasonable proportion of people prefer Hawaii to the Caribbean. And I'm purposefully vague on "reasonable proportion", just saying that HA has the supposition that there is enough market to warrant a flight of their own. At any rate, your N=1 opinion, not data, does not supercede my N=1 opinion.

Quoting airbazar (Reply 13):
That doesn't mean people wouldn't rather go to Hawaii. That just means the Caribbean is more accessible. I would rather go to Hawaii every year but I can't so I go to Florida instead.

Exactly.

-Rampart


User currently offlineAeroWesty From United States of America, joined Oct 2004, 20394 posts, RR: 62
Reply 36, posted (1 year 9 months 4 weeks 1 day 15 hours ago) and read 7796 times:

Quoting EA CO AS (Reply 11):
There's just no comparison. Yes, Hawaii is a unique destination and travel experience, but in terms of the quality of the beaches, the Caribbean wins hands-down every time.

I've been to Hawaii numerous times and the Caribbean a few times, but enjoy Hawaii more without the stifling Caribbean humidity.

Quoting aloha73g (Reply 34):
I don't think a fare sale during one of the slowest times of the year for Hawai'i's tourism is indicative of their financial performance on the route.

   It could even be said that a fare sale on the route, during a period when seats would go out empty, may be a cheap way to raise their profile in the New York area.



International Homo of Mystery
User currently offlineIrishAyes From United States of America, joined Jan 2008, 2165 posts, RR: 15
Reply 37, posted (1 year 9 months 4 weeks 1 day 15 hours ago) and read 7770 times:

Quoting EA CO AS (Reply 20):
Hogwash. DOT data backs it up, as does the fact that nonstop service to CUN from the West Coast is difficult to maintain due to demand (and yield) that is lower than from the East Coast and Midwest. Look at the airlines that tried (and failed) at making LAX-CUN work, for example. Then look at the multitude of nonstops from East Coast destinations.

I see the following:

Air Transat: Vancouver, Calgary (seasonal), Edmonton (seasonal)
CanJet: Vancouver, Edmonton (seasonal), Kelowna (seasonal)
Delta: Los Angeles, Salt Lake City
Enerjet: Calgary, Edmonton, Vancouver (all seasonal)
Sunwing: Edmonton, Vancouver
United: San Francisco, Los Angeles
US Airways: Phoenix
Virgin America: Los Angeles, San Francisco
WestJet: Calgary, Edmonton, Vancouver, Kelowna (seasonal)

That's a fairly sizable group of airlines and destinations. And, pray tell, which airlines have tried and "failed" to make LAXCUN work? for the week of 24-DEC-12, I am seeing 19x services from LAX to Cancun weekly.

Quoting EA CO AS (Reply 20):
Again, DOT data. It's readily available; go look it up if you're that curious.

I don't need to look it up. I am not trying to dispute your point that the bulk of CUN traffic hails from the East Coast and similarly the bulk of the SJD/PVR etc. traffic comes from the West Coast.

What I am trying to point out here is that your position that it all boils down to proximity and travel time is largely flawed.

Looking at the CUN data, for example, it's incredible how much international traffic CUN draws from OUTSIDE of North America: Russia, Argentina, Germany, Italy, France, Spain, Chile, Portugal, Finland, Belgium, U.K., Denmark and so many places in between on nonstop services.

The same goes for Punta Cana in the Dominican Republic. You ever wonder why Europeans, especially Spaniards, would hop on a 10-14 hour flight when they can easily head to plenty of beaches all over the Mediterranean. Or Brazilians when they have some of the most BEAUTIFUL beaches in the world so close by!!!!!

It's because of the discretionary travel market. For a Russian or Brazilian family of four, sometimes a package vacation to Punta Cana can ultimately be less expensive than a visit to Mallorca or Porto Alegre, despite the much shorter commute. If the value of the Ruble, Real, Euro etc. can be stretched even further and provide a new and exciting opportunity to visit an exotic destination, they'll jump at the chance.

The situation is no different with Hawaii in the US, although I do agree it is questionable whether or not HA is able to fill up its JFK flight profitably at such fare levels, and while cheap tickets to Hawaii are not that difficult to come by, it is indeed expensive to visit.



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User currently offlineIrishAyes From United States of America, joined Jan 2008, 2165 posts, RR: 15
Reply 38, posted (1 year 9 months 4 weeks 1 day 14 hours ago) and read 7705 times:

Quoting Superman24 (Reply 23):
Seems like some of you are going off topic. Just flew JFK-HNL-OGG on September 24th and the first leg was 100% full. My cousin flew the next day and said the same thing. Looks like they are doing good.

This does not mean they are making a profit on this route, or breaking even for that matter. A very basic, but highly important, principle of revenue management to always bear in mind.



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User currently offlineEA CO AS From United States of America, joined Nov 2001, 13518 posts, RR: 62
Reply 39, posted (1 year 9 months 4 weeks 1 day 14 hours ago) and read 7597 times:
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Quoting IrishAyes (Reply 37):
I am not trying to dispute your point that the bulk of CUN traffic hails from the East Coast and similarly the bulk of the SJD/PVR etc. traffic comes from the West Coast.

Fine, then - we're in agreement on that. I was just pointing out that calling it "a tired argument" is BS.



"In this present crisis, government is not the solution to our problem - government IS the problem." - Ronald Reagan
User currently offlineSSTeve From United States of America, joined Dec 2011, 695 posts, RR: 1
Reply 40, posted (1 year 9 months 4 weeks 1 day 10 hours ago) and read 7244 times:

Quoting IrishAyes (Reply 38):
This does not mean they are making a profit on this route, or breaking even for that matter.

They're at least charging a little more than UA is on EWR-HNL, and probably flying fewer mileage redeemers. If they're doing poorly with full planes at higher fares, stands to reason the other guys are maybe doing worse.

[Edited 2012-10-04 16:04:07]

User currently offlinemariner From New Zealand, joined Nov 2001, 25012 posts, RR: 85
Reply 41, posted (1 year 9 months 4 weeks 1 day 10 hours ago) and read 7178 times:
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Quoting IrishAyes (Reply 38):
This does not mean they are making a profit on this route, or breaking even for that matter. A very basic, but highly important, principle of revenue management to always bear in mind.

I don't think mentioned profit - he just said his flight was full. The OP didn't mention profit, either.

Time was when no one expected a new airline route to be profitable for a year or two. These days people seem to want it to happen on the first flight.

mariner



aeternum nauta
User currently offlineAeroWesty From United States of America, joined Oct 2004, 20394 posts, RR: 62
Reply 42, posted (1 year 9 months 4 weeks 1 day 10 hours ago) and read 7161 times:

Quoting SSTeve (Reply 40):
and probably flying fewer mileage redeemers.

Not sure why that'd be the case. HA has quite a few airline partners, including AA. Strangely though, you can earn/burn AAdvantage miles on HA (changes are due Oct 31st though), but you can't earn/burn on AA flights using the HawaiianMiles FF plan.



International Homo of Mystery
User currently offlineOOer From United States of America, joined Oct 2005, 1464 posts, RR: 2
Reply 43, posted (1 year 9 months 4 weeks 1 day 9 hours ago) and read 7093 times:

$500 on NYC-HNL might not be great...but consider that most airlines on those same dates offer JFK-LAX for $298. JFK-LAX is within a couple of miles of being 1/2 the distance of JFK-HNL and it's supposed to be a "high yield" market. Just because a couple of people got a good deal on JFK-Hawaii doesn't mean Hawaiian is losing their shirts off.

User currently offlineCompensateMe From United States of America, joined Jan 2009, 1060 posts, RR: 0
Reply 44, posted (1 year 9 months 4 weeks 1 day 8 hours ago) and read 6899 times:

While tourism between the mainland & Hawaii has seen a surge this calendar year, it's a derivative of falling fares. This upcoming winter, one can purchase a ticket between the west cost & Hawaii for ~$400, and UA's nonstop flights from EWR & IAD have plenty of availability for ~$650-$750. These fares aren't sustainable, and unless demand at higher fare levels occurs real soon, we'll see capacity rescind (and probably sooner than later).

Hawaii is a very beautiful place, but I don't understand why some people believe it's the Holy Grail of vacationing. People will travel to Hawaii if it's cheap, but look elsewhere when costs soar. From the Eastern USA, growth in tourism has lagged that to Mexico/Caribbean for many years.

Quoting OOer (Reply 43):
$500 on NYC-HNL might not be great...but consider that most airlines on those same dates offer JFK-LAX for $298.

Although economy fares between JFK-LAX regularly sell for sub-$300, most of those flights have a significant number of passengers paying $3500 or more to sit up front. Meanwhile, fewer people pay to sit up front to Hawaii -- and at significantly cheaper prices (for example, DL charges sub-$2000 for ATL-HNL nonstop). .



Hypocrisy: "US airlines should only buy Boeing... BTW, check out my new Hyundai!"
User currently offlineEA CO AS From United States of America, joined Nov 2001, 13518 posts, RR: 62
Reply 45, posted (1 year 9 months 4 weeks 1 day 7 hours ago) and read 6705 times:
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Quoting CompensateMe (Reply 44):
Although economy fares between JFK-LAX regularly sell for sub-$300, most of those flights have a significant number of passengers paying $3500 or more to sit up front.

And sheer numbers of customers PDEW vs. other markets; you get a far larger overall customer base to spread your fixed costs over.



"In this present crisis, government is not the solution to our problem - government IS the problem." - Ronald Reagan
User currently offlinemariner From New Zealand, joined Nov 2001, 25012 posts, RR: 85
Reply 46, posted (1 year 9 months 4 weeks 1 day 6 hours ago) and read 6668 times:
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Quoting CompensateMe (Reply 44):
From the Eastern USA, growth in tourism has lagged that to Mexico/Caribbean for many years.

That;s completely unsurprising. But it doesn't say that here is NO market between New York and Hawaii.

Nor are those pax necessarily all going to Hawaii. They may not represent a huge connection market, but there may well be some. It's a neat way to Asia or Australia/NZ - a couple of days on a tropical island along the way.

I really can't see why some are so poopy about this. Given Hawaiian's recent track record, it may know rather more about its own market than anyone here.

mariner



aeternum nauta
User currently offlineairportugal310 From Palau, joined Apr 2004, 3587 posts, RR: 2
Reply 47, posted (1 year 9 months 4 weeks 1 day 6 hours ago) and read 6613 times:

Quoting mariner (Reply 46):
I really can't see why some are so poopy about this. Given Hawaiian's recent track record, it may know rather more about its own market than anyone here.

        

Thanks for having faith!



I sell airplanes and airplane accessories
User currently offlineCompensateMe From United States of America, joined Jan 2009, 1060 posts, RR: 0
Reply 48, posted (1 year 9 months 4 weeks 1 day 6 hours ago) and read 6612 times:

Quoting mariner (Reply 46):
That;s completely unsurprising. But it doesn't say that here is NO market between New York and Hawaii.

I didn't say that. But early anecdotal evidence suggests that the market cannot support two daily nonstops (and each carrier carries a fair share of connecting traffic) -- there's no way current fare levels are sustainable. Maybe the problem will correct itself, maybe it won't and one carrier will give.

There will always be a market to Hawaii, but when sustainable fares are nearly 3x those to Mexican & Caribbean beaches closer to home, the market will be limited.



Hypocrisy: "US airlines should only buy Boeing... BTW, check out my new Hyundai!"
User currently offlinemariner From New Zealand, joined Nov 2001, 25012 posts, RR: 85
Reply 49, posted (1 year 9 months 4 weeks 1 day 5 hours ago) and read 6520 times:
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Quoting airportugal310 (Reply 47):
Thanks for having faith!

Thanks, but it isn't actually a question of having faith - I give Hawaiian management the benefit of the doubt, that they know what they are doing.

The negativity here seems based on a whole lot of stuff about the Caribbean, possibly a different market, and that quoted $500 fare, on a young route at the slowest time of the year. I just checked several days in deeper winter and the lowest I could get, without making a song and dance about it, were fares that are three and four times that number.

I have no idea how the route will eventually do, but it seems to me to have potential, at least.

mariner

[Edited 2012-10-04 20:57:48]


aeternum nauta
User currently offlineCompensateMe From United States of America, joined Jan 2009, 1060 posts, RR: 0
Reply 50, posted (1 year 9 months 4 weeks 1 day 5 hours ago) and read 6508 times:

Quoting mariner (Reply 49):
The negativity here seems based on a whole lot of stuff about the Caribbean, possibly a different market, and that quoted $500 fare, on a young route at the slowest time of the year. I just checked several days in deeper winter and the lowest I could get, without making a song and dance about it, were fares that are three and four times that number.

I have no negativity to HA, or NYC-HNL; in fact, I believe competition's a great thing and wish HA well.

That said, airfare to Hawaii -- and not just from NYC -- are the lowest they've been in years. A tremendous amount of capacity has been injected into the market but previous fare levels couldn't absorb it. It's quite possible that things could turn around, but that better happen quickly.



Hypocrisy: "US airlines should only buy Boeing... BTW, check out my new Hyundai!"
User currently offlinemariner From New Zealand, joined Nov 2001, 25012 posts, RR: 85
Reply 51, posted (1 year 9 months 4 weeks 1 day 5 hours ago) and read 6477 times:
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Quoting CompensateMe (Reply 50):
I have no negativity to HA, or NYC-HNL; in fact, I believe competition's a great thing and wish HA well.

it isn't just you.   

mariner



aeternum nauta
User currently offlineViscount724 From Switzerland, joined Oct 2006, 24906 posts, RR: 22
Reply 52, posted (1 year 9 months 4 weeks 1 day 4 hours ago) and read 6446 times:

Quoting mariner (Reply 46):
It's a neat way to Asia or Australia/NZ - a couple of days on a tropical island along the way.

That's fine to Australia/NZ where HNL is a logical en route point and about the same distance as any other routing, but to Asia it's usually 30% to almost 40% further via HNL. Almost everyone these days wants to get where they're going as quickly and directly as possible, especially Americans who get such little vacation time compared to most other countries.

To convince anyone to fly 1/3 further to Asia via Hawaii, you'd have to offer even lower fares than carriers operating directly. That's not very compatible with the costs of a couple of thousand additional miles of flying.

Examples:

JFK-NRT 5861 nm
JFK-HNL-NRT 7649 nm (31% further)

JFK-PVG 6424 nm
JFK-HNL-PVG 8611 nm (34% further)

JFK-ICN 6001 nm
JFK-HNL-ICN 8307 nm (38% further)


User currently offlinemariner From New Zealand, joined Nov 2001, 25012 posts, RR: 85
Reply 53, posted (1 year 9 months 4 weeks 1 day 4 hours ago) and read 6374 times:
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Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 52):
Almost everyone these days wants to get where they're going as quickly and directly as possible, especially Americans who get such little vacation time compared to most other countries.

I guess I know different Americans.

I know many Americans who enjoy time in Hawaii, either going or coming back, even if it is somewhat longer to/from their eventual destination. For, say, Manila, Hawaiian is arguably the best way to go and I don't think that Hawaiian flies to Shanghai - PVG - yet.

I have a problem with generalisations about long haul travellers.

I've heard it said that Australians won't go to Phuket because Bali is closer and sure, Bali is an amazing mass market. But perhaps not everyone wants that (I've given up on it) because Phuket does very well.

mariner



aeternum nauta
User currently offlineViscount724 From Switzerland, joined Oct 2006, 24906 posts, RR: 22
Reply 54, posted (1 year 9 months 4 weeks 6 hours ago) and read 5808 times:

Quoting mariner (Reply 53):
For, say, Manila, Hawaiian is arguably the best way to go and I don't think that Hawaiian flies to Shanghai - PVG - yet.

China Eastern operates HNL-PVG nonstop 3 x week. I'm sure they have an interline agreements with most carriers operating HNL-mainland U.S., especially DL since they're a member of SkyTeam.


User currently offlinemariner From New Zealand, joined Nov 2001, 25012 posts, RR: 85
Reply 55, posted (1 year 9 months 4 weeks 5 hours ago) and read 5763 times:
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Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 54):
China Eastern operates HNL-PVG nonstop 3 x week. I'm sure they have an interline agreements with most carriers operating HNL-mainland U.S., especially DL since they're a member of SkyTeam.

Yes, okay - I was discussing Hawaiian Airlines, but China Eastern will do. What you post suggests China Eastern have pax who go to and from the US via HNL.

I thought your point was that people prefer not to do that:

Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 52):
To convince anyone to fly 1/3 further to Asia via Hawaii, you'd have to offer even lower fares than carriers operating directly. That's not very compatible with the costs of a couple of thousand additional miles of flying.

Maybe I'm missing your point.

mariner



aeternum nauta
User currently offlineViscount724 From Switzerland, joined Oct 2006, 24906 posts, RR: 22
Reply 56, posted (1 year 9 months 4 weeks 5 hours ago) and read 5793 times:

Quoting mariner (Reply 53):
For, say, Manila, Hawaiian is arguably the best way to go

HA JFK-HNL flights don't even connect with HNL-MNL without an overnight stop. JFK-HNL arrives 1500 and HNL-MNL departs 1305. They do connect eastbound but it's a 3 hour connection and total elapsed time MNL-JFK of 23 hrs. 20 min., over 4 hours longer than DL's daily 744 MNL-JFK with a stop at NRT which is 19 hrs. 5 min.

Since aircraft began operating nonstop over the North Pacific many years ago, routings via HNL to/from Asia have always been very secondary due to the much longer distance and travel time.


User currently offlinemariner From New Zealand, joined Nov 2001, 25012 posts, RR: 85
Reply 57, posted (1 year 9 months 4 weeks 5 hours ago) and read 5765 times:
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Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 56):
HA JFK-HNL flights don't even connect with HNL-MNL without an overnight stop.

Yes. I think spoke of a stopover - a couple of days even - in Hawaii.

Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 56):
Since aircraft began operating nonstop over the North Pacific many years ago, routings via HNL to/from Asia have always been very secondary due to the much longer distance and travel time.

The fact that Hawaiian is doing it profitably suggests there is still a market for it.

It may not be a huge market, but there's money to be made in a niche which others ignore.

mariner



aeternum nauta
User currently offlineViscount724 From Switzerland, joined Oct 2006, 24906 posts, RR: 22
Reply 58, posted (1 year 9 months 4 weeks 4 hours ago) and read 5656 times:

Quoting mariner (Reply 57):
Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 56):
Since aircraft began operating nonstop over the North Pacific many years ago, routings via HNL to/from Asia have always been very secondary due to the much longer distance and travel time.

The fact that Hawaiian is doing it profitably suggests there is still a market for it.

Airlines virtually never publish profitability data for specific routes. How do you know that whatever traffic they may carry all the way JFK-MNL is profitable?

And the price-sensitive VFR passengers, usually with huge amounts of baggage, who make up almost all the traffic to MNL aren't going to want to spend a rather expensive night in HNL when there are many much faster same-day connections.


User currently offlinemariner From New Zealand, joined Nov 2001, 25012 posts, RR: 85
Reply 59, posted (1 year 9 months 4 weeks 4 hours ago) and read 5643 times:
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Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 58):
Airlines virtually never publish profitability data for specific routes. How do you know that whatever traffic they may carry all the way JFK-MNL is profitable?

I've no idea. Profitability of specific routes was not my point. I only know that the airline is operating profitably.

But MNL is one of the most mature (2008) of their Asian routes and they're still flying it, so I guess it is doing okay. Maybe not - but if it is losing money, the other routes will have to be working harder.

mariner



aeternum nauta
User currently offlinequestions From Australia, joined Sep 2011, 758 posts, RR: 1
Reply 60, posted (1 year 9 months 4 weeks 4 hours ago) and read 5657 times:

HA flies JFK-HNL nonstop with a standard U.S. first class seat and pitch?

User currently offlineDocLightning From United States of America, joined Nov 2005, 19416 posts, RR: 58
Reply 61, posted (1 year 9 months 4 weeks 3 hours ago) and read 5607 times:

Quoting CompensateMe (Reply 44):
Hawaii is a very beautiful place, but I don't understand why some people believe it's the Holy Grail of vacationing.

Um... because it kinda is. Some people prefer the Caribbean. Some people prefer Tahiti. Some people prefer the Mediterranean or the Canaries. But Hawaii is one of the truly great tropical archipelagos of the world.

Quoting questions (Reply 60):
HA flies JFK-HNL nonstop with a standard U.S. first class seat and pitch?

The A330 is maybe a bit better than your average domestic F class, but pretty much, yes. Soft product is top-notch, though.

http://images3.jetphotos.net/img/4/2/4/4/90502_1342362442.jpg

Quoting CompensateMe (Reply 50):

That said, airfare to Hawaii -- and not just from NYC -- are the lowest they've been in years. A tremendous amount of capacity has been injected into the market but previous fare levels couldn't absorb it. It's quite possible that things could turn around, but that better happen quickly.

I believe that there will be a capacity war and someone is going to lose. WN is going to throw into the ring. B6 or VX might muscle up next. Someone has got to go. It won't be UA or HA, but I could see US leaving the game and just selling code shares.

However, the nonstop JFK-HNL route does not have an enormous amount of capacity and given its distance, requires a widebody.


User currently offlineHAL From United States of America, joined Jan 2002, 2558 posts, RR: 53
Reply 62, posted (1 year 9 months 4 weeks 2 hours ago) and read 5551 times:

Quoting GARUDAROD (Reply 32):
I know for a fact this flight is restricted to the amount of cargo they can carry because
of the ETOPS regulations, so in this instance, I dont think cargo is as much as a
determining factor in beyond yield benefits as some other markets.

Just curious how you 'know for a fact' it's restricted in cargo because of ETOPS, and how the cargo carried can in any way relate to ETOPS regulations. Thanks in advance for your insightful clarification on the subject.

HAL (HA A330 Captain)



One smooth landing is skill. Two in a row is luck. Three in a row and someone is lying.
User currently offlineRWA380 From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 3129 posts, RR: 5
Reply 63, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 6 days 15 hours ago) and read 5210 times:

Quoting EA CO AS (Reply 6):
How is that a tired argument when it's absolutely, positively, 100% true? Fact: from the mainland, West Coasters are the predominant travelers to Hawaii, whereas East Coasters are the predominant travelers to Florida and the Caribbean.

Doesn't mean that things can't change a bit. I know people on the east coast who prefer Hawaii, first it is domestic travel and does not require a passport to travel, at the cost of new passports today, that goes a ways towards the expense of a Hawaiian vacation. This is the best weapon HA has in promoting their beautiful Islands, Florida has nothing on Hawaii.

Quoting azjubilee (Reply 10):
And yes, I think the "East coasters prefer FL and the Carribean over Hawaii" argument is tired. Just like the similarly tired "Hawaii is all about trashy yields and frequent flier freebies" argument. Yes, they are overwhelmingly the biggest visitor to that catchment area, but they are actually allowed to look beyond those traditional markets. It turns out that there's an entire nation to the west of the east coast and that large population. Thinking outside the box here, while it might be far, Hawaii provides a vacation experience that is unmatched in many ways by Florida, the Carribean and the Bahamas

Agreed, of the few places in the Caribbean you can visit without securing a passport, none compare to the magic of the Hawaiian Islands, plus you add in the history of the people and the staggering beauty of Hawaii, it can not be beat. IMO

Quoting EA CO AS (Reply 11):
You're absolutely entitled to your opinion. I'm simply pointing out that facts state otherwise.

Statistics rarely paint an accurate full picture of a situation.



AA-AC-AQ-AS-BN-BD-CO-CS-DL-EA-EZ-HA-HP-KL-KN-MP-MW-NK-NW-OO-OZ-PA-PS-QX-RC-RH-RW-SA-TG-TW-UA-US-VS-WA-WC-WN
User currently offlinejfk787nyc From United States of America, joined Apr 2007, 812 posts, RR: 2
Reply 64, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 6 days ago) and read 4798 times:

You guys are forgetting that taxes Taxes imposed by certain governments and there airports

HNL and JFK are both in the USA, 500 rt makes sense, when your paying 900 for JFK-LHR half the money goes to Excise Tax from LHR


User currently offlinecsavel From United States of America, joined Jan 2001, 1362 posts, RR: 4
Reply 65, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 5 days 22 hours ago) and read 4683 times:

Interesting discussion, and as a New Yorker and aviation enthusiast, I sure hope HA makes it here, if it can make it here, it can make it anywhere  

One thing about Hawaii vs. Caribbean which might make Hawaii less attractive from the east cost for airlines is the FR in VFR.

Frankly, I've always been disdainful when people say Air Ruritania should fly to city X because there are a bunch of Ruritanians there. Unless the number of Ruritanians are *huge* and really maybe only NY or LA [1] would have that population for most groups, that wouldn't be a good reason to start a flight. Most people travelling back "home" would probably travel mostly by price point - willing to transfer at some hub - since they are bringing the whole family, and it would likely be summer since the kids are out of school.

Yeah I know there are other reasons, and commercial ties are often built up from immigrant communities, but if the flight is 9 - 10 hours with the corresponding cost even in coach, it had better be a good one!

Now, NYC to almost every part of the Caribbean has a a lot of FR, "friends and relatives" in the VFR abbreviation. And the New York metro area is large enough that my caveat above goes out the window. It's little whatever is often larger than entire other large metro areas! Plus the flights are short enough, and the fares are cheap enough that it would make sense to go to the DR for the week-end to surprise abuela on her birthday. Much less likely if abuela is in Buenos Aires.

West Coast HA is ~ 5 hours or so, maybe just on the cusp of being "week-end FR-able." I imagine a lot of West Coasters have relatives who have moved to Hawaii, so there is a lot of interchange.

So tl;dr - NY to Hawaii has to rely almost solely on vacationers, whereas NY to the Caribbean, and perhaps West Coast to Hawaii can rely on friends, and relatives (maybe some biz). The NY Market maybe large enough for this to work with high end vacationers - hope so.
__________________________________________________

[1] Yeah I know your city has a lot of people from country x. Obviously Miami for Latin America, Detroit for much of the Middle East, much of the West Coast for Asia, but my point is that I believe that the immigrant communities have to be extremely large for VFR to work given factors of price, planning, and distance. Most cities don't have communities of that scale and I think the further the distance to the mother country, the larger the community has to be. Maybe some quant in Business school can come up with a formula.

F = c/d * √w
where F is profitability factor, c = community size in population, d = distance, w = per capita average wealth (wealthier community might have more First or business travelers going home for a visit)

Maybe throw in some complicated math to make it look cool. Note my, um, formula is NOT REALLY an attempt at this, just filler to look cool. I would have no idea how to structure my hypothesis to test it.



I may be ugly. I may be an American. But don't call me an ugly American.
User currently offlineRWA380 From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 3129 posts, RR: 5
Reply 66, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 5 days 22 hours ago) and read 4666 times:

Quoting csavel (Reply 65):
Interesting discussion, and as a New Yorker and aviation enthusiast, I sure hope HA makes it here, if it can make it here, it can make it anywhere

Actually I think NYC is one of those places that HA can make it, but not too many other E coast cities would work well for HA. IMO. NYC has the population, plus numerous close by cities and states that easily can attract travellers to Hawaii.

Quoting csavel (Reply 65):
West Coast HA is ~ 5 hours or so, maybe just on the cusp of being "week-end FR-able." I imagine a lot of West Coasters have relatives who have moved to Hawaii,

Ugh, I've done weekends from the West Coast to Hawaii, and when living in Hawaii weekends on the mainland, it's a rough 48-60 hours with many things that happen on top of 10+ hours of flying. I think it is more folks in Hawaii have relatives who have moved to the mainland, and HA captures a large percentage of Hawaii origin travel. The majority of residents in Hawaii travel, a much larger percentage on average than here on the mainland, so capturing the local market is a good thing to have for HA.



AA-AC-AQ-AS-BN-BD-CO-CS-DL-EA-EZ-HA-HP-KL-KN-MP-MW-NK-NW-OO-OZ-PA-PS-QX-RC-RH-RW-SA-TG-TW-UA-US-VS-WA-WC-WN
User currently offlinecsavel From United States of America, joined Jan 2001, 1362 posts, RR: 4
Reply 67, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 5 days 21 hours ago) and read 4629 times:

Quoting RWA380 (Reply 66):
Ugh, I've done weekends from the West Coast to Hawaii, and when living in Hawaii weekends on the mainland

Yeah, and I have done NY to LA and SF. Hard, but if you've got a 3-day week-end and can perhaps take an extra day off, doable. Not possible NY to Hawaii.

I do tend to agree with you that NY is probably large enough to make this work. Sure hope so because an A-330 tricked out in Hawaiian's colors is a joy to behold.



I may be ugly. I may be an American. But don't call me an ugly American.
User currently offlinenycdave From United States of America, joined Aug 2010, 546 posts, RR: 1
Reply 68, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 5 days 17 hours ago) and read 4470 times:

Just anecdotal, but:

I've now had TWO of my Aussie friends swear off of all other options to do HA to SYD with a stopover in HNL -- no additional cost, a night or three in a tropical paradise, and, from what they've told me, better, cheaper service than QF, WAY better/more comfortable service than UA, and much cheaper and more convenient than JetStar.... plus, splitting the trip in half seems a much more pleasant way to go than doing a transcon and then the brutal (in coach) entire pacific back to back.

I don't think the fare is at all unreasonably low for profit, either -- remember, that's actually better (from the airline's standpoint) than most TATL sale fares, when you take out the excise/landing fees!

Wishing HA good luck from JFK -- I'm a firm believer that, as proven by NYC operations of B6 and PD for example, that pax will pay a (little) bit more for excellent service and a more convenient flight.


User currently offlinebobnwa From United States of America, joined Dec 2000, 6449 posts, RR: 9
Reply 69, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 5 days 17 hours ago) and read 4382 times:

Quoting csavel (Reply 65):
F = c/d * √w
where F is profitability factor, c = community size in population, d = distance, w = per capita average wealth (wealthier community might have more First or business travelers going home for a visit)

Maybe throw in some complicated math to make it look cool. Note my, um, formula is NOT REALLY an attempt at this, just filler to look cool. I would have no idea how to structure my hypothesis to test it.

If you don't understand what you are writing about, then, then how are we sopposed to?


User currently offlinevinniewinnie From United States of America, joined Nov 2005, 772 posts, RR: 0
Reply 70, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 5 days 16 hours ago) and read 4311 times:

Is HA in a similar yet much more comfortable place than Icelandair? Let me explain my reasoning: they are both Island airlines in the middle of an ocean that rely on mainland tourism to sustain the needs of the local population.

Whilst Hawaiian serves the us- Asia/Oceania flows through a fantastic one stop connection allowing people to chill and relax in paradise, Icelandair enables the same through a stopover in a rough and exciting stony island

Hawaii wouldn't be Hawaii without Hawaiian, Iceland wouldn't be Iceland without Icelandair.

Both airlines seem to be pretty successful at what they are doing: Icelandair has opened new destinations such as Seattle and Denver which are rather long whilst Hawaiian opened JFK. They both seem to be successful in their new ventures, despite not relying on high yield traffic.

Trip length though seems to give Hawaiian an advantage: on a 7hr IAD- LHR flight, it is way less convenient and appealing to go through a stopover in Iceland than it is to stopover between LAX and SYD which is about 14hr. Plus choosing between lush landscapes/beaches and stones people would rather pick the first one no?


User currently offlineViscount724 From Switzerland, joined Oct 2006, 24906 posts, RR: 22
Reply 71, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 5 days 15 hours ago) and read 4239 times:

Quoting vinniewinnie (Reply 70):
Whilst Hawaiian serves the us- Asia/Oceania flows through a fantastic one stop connection allowing people to chill and relax in paradise, Icelandair enables the same through a stopover in a rough and exciting stony island

The difference is that FI has always relied heavily on connecting traffic via KEF to/from other points in Europe, while HA's primary market is O&D traffic to/from Hawaii. O&D traffic to/from Iceland is tiny compared to Hawaii due to the very small population and limited tourist infrastructure and weather/seasonality issues. FI and HA have very different business models as a result.


User currently offlinemariner From New Zealand, joined Nov 2001, 25012 posts, RR: 85
Reply 72, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 5 days 15 hours ago) and read 4169 times:
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Quoting nycdave (Reply 68):
I've now had TWO of my Aussie friends swear off of all other options to do HA to SYD with a stopover in HNL -- no additional cost, a night or three in a tropical paradise, and, from what they've told me, better, cheaper service than QF, WAY better/more comfortable service than UA, and much cheaper and more convenient than JetStar.... plus, splitting the trip in half seems a much more pleasant way to go than doing a transcon and then the brutal (in coach) entire pacific back to back.

  

There was always a percentage of Aussies (and Kiwis) who wanted the stop in HNL rather than take the non-stop. Then the 747-400 came along and killed that - whether the pax actually wanted it or not, non-stop was cheaper for the airlines. It was the triumph of majority thinking.

Hawaiian appears to be offering choice again.

Going the other way, it amuses me that airlines travelling to Europe from Oz had to make a fuel stop at one of the Gulf airports - DXB as one of them (or BAH or AUH).

The 747-400 removed that need and so the airlines gave those airports the two finger salute. Which is partly why Emirates was able to grow so quickly and spectacularly - there was very little competition.

It amuses me, then, that Qantas will now be flying to Europe - via DXB.  

mariner

[Edited 2012-10-07 11:39:39]


aeternum nauta
User currently offlineCompensateMe From United States of America, joined Jan 2009, 1060 posts, RR: 0
Reply 73, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 5 days 8 hours ago) and read 3924 times:

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 61):
Um... because it kinda is. Some people prefer the Caribbean. Some people prefer Tahiti. Some people prefer the Mediterranean or the Canaries. But Hawaii is one of the truly great tropical archipelagos of the world.

I don't disagree with you; my original post wasn't clear on what I was thinking -- a.net portrays Hawaii as the 'Holly Grail must-serve-from-every-major-market-with-a-competitive-product' market, which it is not. I agree that Hawaii is an important marketing piece to FF programs, but it's also a very price sensitive market.

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 61):
believe that there will be a capacity war and someone is going to lose. WN is going to throw into the ring. B6 or VX might muscle up next. Someone has got to go. It won't be UA or HA, but I could see US leaving the game and just selling code shares.

However, the nonstop JFK-HNL route does not have an enormous amount of capacity and given its distance, requires a widebody.

While two daily NYC-HNL flights seems petty compared to the size of the NYC market, it's very clear that the introduction of HA's service has placed tremendous downward pressure on airfares. RT$500, $650, etc. just isn't sustainable. And UA's set to inject more capacity into the market when its 764 are replaced with 777. Something needs to change, and real fast.

Quoting jfk787nyc (Reply 64):
HNL and JFK are both in the USA, 500 rt makes sense, when your paying 900 for JFK-LHR half the money goes to Excise Tax from LHR

Don't confuse "fuel surcharges" as being taxes. So while you're paying more in taxes to LHR, the discrepancy isn't as large as you believe. And RT$500 doesn't make sense, since the route would be hemorrhaging cash if it sold a significant number of tickets at that price.

Quoting mariner (Reply 57):
The fact that Hawaiian is doing it profitably suggests there is still a market for it.

I'd be curious if you have any data to support that claim, since HA's network isn't set-up to connect mainland passengers to Asia (with few exceptions).



Hypocrisy: "US airlines should only buy Boeing... BTW, check out my new Hyundai!"
User currently offlineCompensateMe From United States of America, joined Jan 2009, 1060 posts, RR: 0
Reply 74, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 5 days 8 hours ago) and read 3905 times:

Quoting RWA380 (Reply 63):
Statistics rarely paint an accurate full picture of a situation.

It's not statistics, it's data. Data proves that significantly fewer passengers from the Central/Eastern USA travel to Hawaii compared to the West Coast. There's no point in arguing this point, you can readily research it. Hawaii's most popular from the West Coast in which travel time is significantly shorter, fares are cheaper & surfing culture is stronger.

Tourism growth between the mainland & Hawaii has lagged that of the USA & Mexico/Caribbean for many years. No matter how much one loves Hawaii, it's still an expensive place to visit. For the price of a room in a basic hotel a block from the beach in Waikiki, a couple can enjoy a mid-range beachfront all-inclusive in Mexico. Yes, there will always be a faction of vacationers who want to surf or enjoy their morning coffee then set out hiking, but they're a minority to those who want to enjoy the amenities of their beachfront hotel - which is cost prohibitive to most in Hawaii. Coupled with cheaper flights & shorter travel time, this has lead people to Mexico & the Caribbean in recent years.



Hypocrisy: "US airlines should only buy Boeing... BTW, check out my new Hyundai!"
User currently offlinemariner From New Zealand, joined Nov 2001, 25012 posts, RR: 85
Reply 75, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 5 days 7 hours ago) and read 3866 times:
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Quoting CompensateMe (Reply 73):
I'd be curious if you have any data to support that claim, since HA's network isn't set-up to connect mainland passengers to Asia (with few exceptions).

Only Hawaiian's published numbers, statements - and actions. Everything else is anecdotal.

I said "suggests," I didn't say "proves," nor did I claim that they were large numbers of connecting pax to Asia - I only said "there may be some" - as here:

Quoting mariner (Reply 46):
Nor are those pax necessarily all going to Hawaii. They may not represent a huge connection market, but there may well be some. It's a neat way to Asia or Australia/NZ - a couple of days on a tropical island along the way.

I know that at least a few from Australia are connecting at HNL to mainland US, I know people who have done it, just as I know Kiwis who are already booked to connect at HNL. I know at least one Kiwi who is flying AKL-HNL-HND, because he wants a few days in Hawaii - he has family there and then business in Tokyo.

And if there are, as you say, "exceptions" that provide connection opportunities to Asia I assume "some" may be taking advantage of them.

I'm not claiming anything for Hawaiian other than that it is operating profitably and that the model thus appears to be working.

I'm just questioning a number of the negatives and generalisations that have been posted here.

mariner



aeternum nauta
User currently offlineAngMoh From Singapore, joined Nov 2011, 479 posts, RR: 0
Reply 76, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 5 days 6 hours ago) and read 3766 times:

Quoting CompensateMe (Reply 74):
It's not statistics, it's data. Data proves that significantly fewer passengers from the Central/Eastern USA travel to Hawaii compared to the West Coast. There's no point in arguing this point, you can readily research it. Hawaii's most popular from the West Coast in which travel time is significantly shorter, fares are cheaper & surfing culture is stronger.

There are fewer passengers from Eastern USA than from the West Coast, but there are also far less flights which means far less competition from the East Coast than from the West Coast. And the net result could be (and I don' t say "it is") that the East Coast is more profitable. It is all about the balance between supply and demand. The data/statistics don't show how profitable everybody actually is.


User currently offlineBMI727 From United States of America, joined Feb 2009, 15719 posts, RR: 26
Reply 77, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 5 days 5 hours ago) and read 3709 times:

Quoting CompensateMe (Reply 73):
And UA's set to inject more capacity into the market when its 764 are replaced with 777.

It's also going to likely lower costs. UA will have some help in the form of connections as well.

Quoting AngMoh (Reply 76):
There are fewer passengers from Eastern USA than from the West Coast, but there are also far less flights which means far less competition from the East Coast than from the West Coast.

If you ignore connections, which one a route that long, could lower the cost significantly.



Why do Aerospace Engineering students have to turn things in on time?
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