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With QR To Oneworld, What Will Oneworld Do Next?  
User currently offlineTWA85 From United States of America, joined Feb 2012, 224 posts, RR: 0
Posted (2 years 2 weeks 21 hours ago) and read 10962 times:

Hello all,

Now that Oneworld has successfully secured a carrier from the Persian Gulf, what will Oneworld do next? 1) Will they turn their focus back to recruiting a member from Mainland China which is a large hole that Oneworld needs to fill asap? The QF-EK and BA-QR relationships could demonstrate to CX, that they may continue to partner with CA, while the rest of oneworld carrier partner with HU. 2) Will Oneworld focus on bringing JJ over from the Star Alliance as JJ completes its merger with LA? Brazil is another important market that Oneworld needs fill before they potentially loose market-share to the Star and possibly SkyTeam Alliances. 3) Will Oneworld focus on developing closer relationships between its members in a further attempt to narrow the gap between them and the other two alliances? Or will Oneworld focus on a combination of the scenarios? Your thoughts are greatly appreciated!

43 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlinebehramjee From Canada, joined Aug 2003, 4802 posts, RR: 44
Reply 1, posted (2 years 2 weeks 20 hours ago) and read 10847 times:

One World needs a solid Africa presence as well and unfortunately for them all the viable carriers are part of an alliance now from that continent.

India too is a market that needs to be looked at again with Air India as a partner as they will gain massive political leverage in India if this comes through positively. In addition, they shall benefit as AI flies into all the major OW hubs such as HKG, LHR, JFK, ORD, NRT, DOH, CMB and soon SYD so a no brainer there.

AI-AA can code share on DEL-ORD and JFK-DEL/BOM.

AI-QF can code share on AI's soon to be launched B787 nonstop service to SYD/MEL and in turn AI can code share on QF via Australia to AKL/CHC.

CX-AI can code share on all HKG-India flights + AI can code share on CX's trans-pacific services to LAX/SFO/YVR + via HKG to TPE/MNL

BA-AI can code share on UK-India + domestically within each country + AI can code share on trans-atlantic services via LHR to USA operated by AA/BA.

JL-AI can code share on all Japan-India flights + domestically within their own respective countries + AI can code share on trans-pacific routes via NRT on JAL.

With regards to QR-AI, QR can code share on domestic India where as the main benefit for AI with QR is to code share on DOH-Africa and DOH-Levant/Iraq/Iran services.


User currently offlineQANTASvJet From United Kingdom, joined Sep 2012, 78 posts, RR: 0
Reply 2, posted (2 years 2 weeks 20 hours ago) and read 10838 times:

What will OneWorld do - or maybe the question is what will it have done to it? Etihad just dragged AirBerlin into an alliance with AF/KLM. Emirates has taken QANTAS, nominally still part of OneWorld but not at all in its heart, and Emirates is also circling JAL and AA. None of those will actually leave OneWorld, but if Emirates gets its way, nor will they help it. It also looks like LATAM will hedge its bets by keeping LAN in the alliance but letting TAM play the field. That leaves Cathay Pacific, who have never had much to do with their OneWorld partners, and Finnair and Royal Jordanian, both of which are snookered by the Qatar deal. Oh, and S7. From Siberia. Excuse me?

User currently offlinejustinlee From China, joined Aug 2012, 331 posts, RR: 0
Reply 3, posted (2 years 2 weeks 20 hours ago) and read 10775 times:

I will just say something about HU. CX thinks that HU's base is to close to HKG but actually HU is building its largest hub in PEK now. They are exclusively using PEK T1 now and open various international connections such as DXB, BER, SVO, ZRH, SEA and so on. I think OW should seize this opportunity to acquire HU as soon as possible because it's the last possible partner in Mainland China now.

User currently offlineQANTASvJet From United Kingdom, joined Sep 2012, 78 posts, RR: 0
Reply 4, posted (2 years 2 weeks 20 hours ago) and read 10755 times:

Justinlee is of course right about HU. When will WW read the riot act to CX? You can understand why his predessor was diplomatic, but not him.

User currently offlineCX282 From Germany, joined May 2012, 20 posts, RR: 0
Reply 5, posted (2 years 2 weeks 19 hours ago) and read 10432 times:

Quoting behramjee (Reply 1):

I think they will add Royal Air Maroc sooner or later. While they might not be as big as ET/MS/KQ, they have a decent western African presence. I would have loved ET in oneworld, but now they have to pick what's left in Africa.


User currently onlineASA From Bangladesh, joined Dec 2010, 750 posts, RR: 1
Reply 6, posted (2 years 2 weeks 19 hours ago) and read 10367 times:

i think the right question is: What would Al-Baker do?   

User currently offlinecageyjames From United States of America, joined Nov 2006, 329 posts, RR: 0
Reply 7, posted (2 years 2 weeks 19 hours ago) and read 10331 times:

OW needs to get US out of Star. Even if the American merger doesn't happen, AA + US would make OneWorld a very strong "airline" in USA.

Africa is a tough nut. SA, ET and MS are the perfect choices. Alas *A already has them wrapped up.

[Edited 2012-10-09 14:55:59]

User currently offlineleftyboarder From Turkey, joined Apr 2008, 693 posts, RR: 1
Reply 8, posted (2 years 2 weeks 19 hours ago) and read 10307 times:

If Nigeria could've overcome corruption and come up with a reasonable airline, that would've been the ideal partner for OW if you ask me. Perfect location to connect Africa to AA and LA with a large home market. Of course with Arik gone there is not even a candidate. AT is indeed their best bet in Africa.

And India... If UL can build a strong base in CMB, it can assume the role of leaping stone into India, me thinks.


User currently offlineiFlyLOTs From United States of America, joined Apr 2012, 491 posts, RR: 0
Reply 9, posted (2 years 2 weeks 18 hours ago) and read 10222 times:

Quoting leftyboarder (Reply 8):
Of course with Arik gone there is not even a candidate

I thought that they had only stopped domestic operations, and that international were still operating relatively normally.

I see them making a play at any African carrier that they can get and is somewhat proven, and possibly an Indian one (they should have gone for 9W over IT).

I also think that a Canadian carrier could be in the mix, WestJet maybe?



"...stay hungry, stay foolish" -Steve Jobs
User currently offlinegauravpai From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 10, posted (2 years 2 weeks 10 hours ago) and read 9564 times:

Quoting iFlyLOTs (Reply 9):
And India... If UL can build a strong base in CMB, it can assume the role of leaping stone into India, me thinks.

i seriously doubt that ULs expansion plans are limited and there are enough direct connections to most cities in india QR themselves serve a lot of cities on their own  

One world has so many criss cross inter airline agreements its fascinating almost like a soap drama!

Quoting iFlyLOTs (Reply 9):
and possibly an Indian one (they should have gone for 9W over IT)

dont think 9W will join oneworld ,if at all it will join star alliance in the near future depending on the ongoing AI-LH fiasco

Quoting behramjee (Reply 1):
With regards to QR-AI, QR can code share on domestic India where as the main benefit for AI with QR is to code share on DOH-Africa and DOH-Levant/Iraq/Iran services
Quoting QANTASvJet (Reply 2):
CX-AI can code share on all HKG-India flights + AI can code share on CX's trans-pacific services to LAX/SFO/YVR + via HKG to TPE/MNL

Absolutely   

Quoting QANTASvJet (Reply 2):
AI-AA can code share on DEL-ORD and JFK-DEL/BOM.

dont think they will as del ord and jfk del and ewr bom flights are doing fine with good pax and cargo loads

cheers


User currently offlineAirlineCritic From Finland, joined Mar 2009, 728 posts, RR: 1
Reply 11, posted (2 years 2 weeks 8 hours ago) and read 8780 times:

Implode? Fracture?

Not just after QR but also after QF/EK and AB/KL/AF cases.


User currently offlinegauravpai From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 12, posted (2 years 2 weeks 8 hours ago) and read 8659 times:

Quoting AirlineCritic (Reply 11):
Implode? Fracture?

 


User currently offline3rdGen From Bahrain, joined Jul 2011, 238 posts, RR: 0
Reply 13, posted (2 years 2 weeks 5 hours ago) and read 7813 times:

OW need a good domestic Indian carrier like IndiGo, they have enough connectivity into India. The entire alliance picture is messed up, but I believe there'll be a big shift in allegiances soon, alliances need to consolidate and trim down to their core members who are full heartedly on board with the alliance and then rebuild from there.

User currently offlineRyanairGuru From Australia, joined Oct 2006, 5736 posts, RR: 5
Reply 14, posted (2 years 2 weeks 5 hours ago) and read 7657 times:

Quoting QANTASvJet (Reply 2):
QANTAS, nominally still part of OneWorld but not at all in its heart

What? QF are much more in OW than AB and CX. I still don't understand why people think QF have turned their back on OW, other than terminating their JSA with BA nothing has changed. QF worships the ground at AA's feet and despite running in direct competition with LA TPAC they have a very important code sharing agreement with them within South America.

And even with BA, the change isn't as drastic as everyone makes it out. I've seen much speculation about who BA's new partner to Australia will be (CX, MH, QR). News flash: they don't need a new partner, they already have a perfectly decent one. BA and QF are going to continue to codeshare on flight from Aus-Asia and Asia-UK, the only think they won't do is revenue share.

Quoting cageyjames (Reply 7):
OW needs to get US out of Star. Even if the American merger doesn't happen, AA + US would make OneWorld a very strong "airline" in USA.

I agree. Along with JJ I think this should be their #1 priority. US, even as a standalone carrier, would complement AA nicely.



Worked Hard, Flew Right
User currently offlineqf002 From Australia, joined Jul 2011, 2987 posts, RR: 2
Reply 15, posted (2 years 2 weeks 4 hours ago) and read 7507 times:

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 14):
QF worships the ground at AA's feet

I think the worshiping is probably around the other way. QF brings a whole lot more to AA than AA does to QF (at least that's always been my impression).

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 14):
And even with BA, the change isn't as drastic as everyone makes it out.

   Many people also forget that EK only flies to 30-odd European cities, while BA flies to over 90 -- QF will still make use of BA connections through LHR to help cover small cities that EK can never hope to serve.


User currently offlinegegarrenton From United States of America, joined Aug 2012, 211 posts, RR: 0
Reply 16, posted (2 years 2 weeks 3 hours ago) and read 6865 times:

Quoting qf002 (Reply 15):
I think the worshiping is probably around the other way. QF brings a whole lot more to AA than AA does to QF (at least that's always been my impression).

The feed AA gives QF is considerably higher than the other way around.


User currently offlineiFlyLOTs From United States of America, joined Apr 2012, 491 posts, RR: 0
Reply 17, posted (2 years 2 weeks 2 hours ago) and read 6724 times:

Quoting gauravpai (Reply 10):
dont think 9W will join oneworld ,if at all it will join star alliance in the near future depending on the ongoing AI-LH fiasco

Oh, I don't think that they will either, but instead of going for IT, they should have made a play for 9W.



"...stay hungry, stay foolish" -Steve Jobs
User currently offlineRyanairGuru From Australia, joined Oct 2006, 5736 posts, RR: 5
Reply 18, posted (2 years 2 weeks 2 hours ago) and read 6567 times:

Quoting qf002 (Reply 15):
QF brings a whole lot more to AA than AA does to QF (at least that's always been my impression).

QF gives AA a small market of 21 mn people which would certainly neither make or break AA. AA gives QF access to a vitally important part of its network and its most profitable long haul market.

I think AA is definitely more valuable to QF than v.v.



Worked Hard, Flew Right
User currently offlineaaexecplat From United States of America, joined Sep 2009, 636 posts, RR: 4
Reply 19, posted (2 years 2 weeks 2 hours ago) and read 6483 times:

I think the priorities for OW should be (in no particular order) :

- Lure HU in the alliance (for a solid mainland China presence)
- "Steal" US from Star and include them in the TATL JV/ATI (for a beefed up US network)
- Lure AI into OW now that Jet has gone to Star already (for a solid India presence)


User currently offlineTWA85 From United States of America, joined Feb 2012, 224 posts, RR: 0
Reply 20, posted (2 years 2 weeks ago) and read 6042 times:

Quoting behramjee (Reply 1):
One World needs a solid Africa presence as well and unfortunately for them all the viable carriers are part of an alliance now from that continent.



This a valid point, oneworld is very weak in Africa, however oneworld does not seem to be very concerned for their lack of African coverage. Why is this? As for oneworld expansion, the best option would be to recruit regional African airlines and funnel their traffic to destinations served oneworld airlines that provide long-haul service to and from Africa.

Quoting behramjee (Reply 1):
India too is a market that needs to be looked at again with Air India as a partner as they will gain massive political leverage in India if this comes through positively. In addition, they shall benefit as AI flies into all the major OW hubs such as HKG, LHR, JFK, ORD, NRT, DOH, CMB and soon SYD so a no brainer there.



AI would make a great addition to oneworld in terms of Indian coverage, however AI has many of the same problems that IT does, just with the advantage of backing from the GOI. IndiGo would probably be oneworlds best option as the have the largest domestic network in India with a stable financial balance sheet. Also oneworld CEO Bruce Ashby is a former IndiGo CEO.


As for mainland China, after further researching HU, they appear to have a lot of strength in secondary long-haul markets like SEA, BRU, ZRH, DME, etc. and have no presence in major oneworld hubs like LAX, JFK, NRT, LHR, etc. which could be a bit of an issue. Does HU have any long term plans to expand into these global markets?


User currently offlineIrishAyes From United States of America, joined Jan 2008, 2214 posts, RR: 15
Reply 21, posted (2 years 1 week 6 days 23 hours ago) and read 5843 times:

Quoting gauravpai (Reply 10):
dont think they will as del ord and jfk del and ewr bom flights are doing fine with good pax and cargo loads

Yet these flights are hemorrhaging cash  
Quoting 3rdGen (Reply 13):
OW need a good domestic Indian carrier like IndiGo, they have enough connectivity into India.

IndiGo is a very successful carrier, arguably the only one in India (embarrassingly). Despite this, as a LCC, I don't believe they've reached the maturity stage where they face any major *need* to join a global alliance.

Notably, virtually none of the world's largest LCCs belong to alliances at this juncture, despite the recent evolution in the way they operate: WN, FR, U2, JT, DY, AK, VY etc. are all unaligned.

Even most hybrid airlines (G3, WS, B6) are still separate from alliances. The only hybrid carrier off the top of my head that has joined in recent years has been AB, and they are in a wacky position.

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 14):
What? QF are much more in OW than AB and CX. I still don't understand why people think QF have turned their back on OW, other than terminating their JSA with BA nothing has changed. QF worships the ground at AA's feet and despite running in direct competition with LA TPAC they have a very important code sharing agreement with them within South America.

I don't either. The world isn't ending. The approach just has changed. Europe represents ONE PART of QF's network that needed a major strategic re-think. That's it!

QF had better remain in OneWorld else it wants to watch its long-haul network unravel. It can forget about the Americas without maintaining the relationships it has with AA and LA. Those ties run very deep (at least with regards to AA) and don't seem in imminent danger of being yanked anytime soon.

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 14):
And even with BA, the change isn't as drastic as everyone makes it out. I've seen much speculation about who BA's new partner to Australia will be (CX, MH, QR). News flash: they don't need a new partner, they already have a perfectly decent one. BA and QF are going to continue to codeshare on flight from Aus-Asia and Asia-UK, the only think they won't do is revenue share.

Exactly. People are completely overlooking the fact that BA's reaction to the QF+EK tie-up and the JSA termination has been cordial. Similarly, QF/AJ's reaction to IAG's sponsorship of QR into OneWorld showed an equivalent level of mutual support.

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 14):
I agree. Along with JJ I think this should be their #1 priority. US, even as a standalone carrier, would complement AA nicely.

Agreed.

Quoting aaexecplat (Reply 19):
- Lure HU in the alliance (for a solid mainland China presence)
- "Steal" US from Star and include them in the TATL JV/ATI (for a beefed up US network)
- Lure AI into OW now that Jet has gone to Star already (for a solid India presence)

Jet has not gone to Star. Where did you get this information?

And forget about AI. Why does everyone seem to cling onto the idea that AI is this diamond in the rough that every airline/global alliance should be chasing after? They are a failed airline! There is absolutely ZERO value proposition that AI brings to the table other than the fact that they are an Indian carrier. That is hardly saying anything. Emirates deserves greater distinction for being the national carrier of India as opposed to ANY of the Indian-bred airlines, because all of them, with the exception of IndiGo, are in poor health. They are EXTREMELY limited in the manner in which they can contribute to meet the needs of an alliance in India.

Quoting TWA85 (Reply 20):
This a valid point, oneworld is very weak in Africa, however oneworld does not seem to be very concerned for their lack of African coverage. Why is this? As for oneworld expansion, the best option would be to recruit regional African airlines and funnel their traffic to destinations served oneworld airlines that provide long-haul service to and from Africa.

Africa is tricky. Much like India, on one hand its importance cannot be underplayed given the growth in emerging markets. On the other hand, the national carriers have to be able to pull their own weight as well. Unfortunately, few of African flag carriers can hold themselves to the high standards that the major alliances require in order to be granted membership.

Quoting TWA85 (Reply 20):
AI would make a great addition to oneworld in terms of Indian coverage, however AI has many of the same problems that IT does, just with the advantage of backing from the GOI. IndiGo would probably be oneworlds best option as the have the largest domestic network in India with a stable financial balance sheet. Also oneworld CEO Bruce Ashby is a former IndiGo CEO.

See my points above on 6E and AI. I think OneWorld is better off sticking with its current path of pursuing agreements with the Gulf Airlines and UL rather than wasting its time with India.



next flights: jfk-icn, icn-hkg-bkk-cdg, cdg-phl-msp
User currently offlineaaexecplat From United States of America, joined Sep 2009, 636 posts, RR: 4
Reply 22, posted (2 years 1 week 6 days 23 hours ago) and read 5673 times:

Quoting IrishAyes (Reply 21):
Jet has not gone to Star. Where did you get this information?

Check this article out. Nothing has been decided, but the stars are certainly aligned.

http://travel.usatoday.com/alliance/...ion-to-Join-Star-Alliance/820106/1


User currently onlineUnited787 From United States of America, joined May 2005, 2730 posts, RR: 2
Reply 23, posted (2 years 1 week 6 days 23 hours ago) and read 5653 times:

It would seem that even without an African partner, MAD is well located geographically for Africa, kind of like MIA to South America. Especially for North America and Western Europe to Western Africa. But, it doesn't seem like IB is very strong to Africa, why is that? At least not like AA is to Latin America or UA is to Asia... I know they do have a number of destinations covered but I would expect more given their location...

User currently offlineIrishAyes From United States of America, joined Jan 2008, 2214 posts, RR: 15
Reply 24, posted (2 years 1 week 6 days 23 hours ago) and read 5623 times:

Quoting aaexecplat (Reply 22):
Check this article out. Nothing has been decided, but the stars are certainly aligned.

Just because 9W has submitted a request to the GOI does not mean they will be given the green light. This is far from being a done deal. Based on previous patterns, I doubt the GOI will grant 9W any sort of permission unless there is some immediate benefit to AI as well.



next flights: jfk-icn, icn-hkg-bkk-cdg, cdg-phl-msp
25 IrishAyes : You can't really compare traffic patterns between two geographic locations in this manner and draw many conclusions from such comparisons. It really
26 justinlee : Because the primary hub for HU, HAK, is definitely a tourism airport and too close to HKG. They want to expand their international routes from their
27 kyrone : I think they still have a lot of internal work to do. They need to cooperate with each other on a larger scale
28 RyanairGuru : Just too nitpick, after AB I'd suggest that VA is the most prominent "hybrid" carrier. After all, they operate long haul flights and have a 2 class d
29 Post contains images Byrdluvs747 : Before all the other suggestions about India.. China.. TAM.. and Africa, OW(mostly IAG) needs to secure AB. Otherwise the alliance will be facing anot
30 qf002 : Very true, though AA's feed could have been easily replicated by pretty much any other North American airline. The way I see it, QF's services genera
31 neveragain : I'd like to know why there is the perception that there is a gap between oneworld and the other two alliances (and, for the record, I'm no fan of one
32 commavia : Maybe, except that Air Berlin is, in the scheme of things, far less important to oneworld than JAL, which was and is a pivotal, strategically importa
33 Post contains links RyanairGuru : While I don't doubt that AA get traffic from QF, realistically how much is it? There are 2 A380s and 1 747 to LAX, and we know from what QF have said
34 neveragain : Not true. AA's domestic operation at DFW is much bigger than UA's at IAH, both in frequency and capacity. True. As long as there's open skies between
35 Post contains links RyanairGuru : I should have made it clearer: CLT would have made US a more realistic partner IF AA weren't available. I wasn't saying that if they could fly to CLT
36 neveragain : I should've been clearer--I was disagreeing your assertion that AA was QF's only option in the US. What was the rationale for the approval of the Del
37 SCL767 : QF code-shares on LAN's routes within South America? Also, remember that CX code-shares on LA800/LA801. In fact, LAN has a very strong bilateral code
38 RyanairGuru : Codeshare was the wrong word. Interline. One of the main reasons that SCL replaced EZE was to fly into LAN's primary hub and therefore improve connec
39 neveragain : The memory jog is much appreciated. I take your point now.
40 Post contains links allrite : In a recent speech the Qantas CEO mentioned their relationship with non-Oneworld members South African Airways for African flights and China Eastern,
41 qf002 : I don't disagree, though in my mind this argument serves to undermine QF's reliance on AA as much as it serves to prove their dependence. I certainly
42 Post contains images RyanairGuru : I see what you mean, I guess I've come full circle in my logic. Nonetheless, QF have put their eggs in the AA basket and that's where they are likely
43 neveragain : RyanairGuru--I was reminded of what I learned yesterday while reading an article about the QF-EK tie-up. There was no mention of fears regarding simi
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