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With QR To Oneworld, What Will Oneworld Do Next?  
User currently offlineTWA85 From United States of America, joined Feb 2012, 225 posts, RR: 0
Posted (2 years 1 month 2 weeks 4 days 20 hours ago) and read 11014 times:

Hello all,

Now that Oneworld has successfully secured a carrier from the Persian Gulf, what will Oneworld do next? 1) Will they turn their focus back to recruiting a member from Mainland China which is a large hole that Oneworld needs to fill asap? The QF-EK and BA-QR relationships could demonstrate to CX, that they may continue to partner with CA, while the rest of oneworld carrier partner with HU. 2) Will Oneworld focus on bringing JJ over from the Star Alliance as JJ completes its merger with LA? Brazil is another important market that Oneworld needs fill before they potentially loose market-share to the Star and possibly SkyTeam Alliances. 3) Will Oneworld focus on developing closer relationships between its members in a further attempt to narrow the gap between them and the other two alliances? Or will Oneworld focus on a combination of the scenarios? Your thoughts are greatly appreciated!

43 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlinebehramjee From Canada, joined Aug 2003, 4833 posts, RR: 44
Reply 1, posted (2 years 1 month 2 weeks 4 days 19 hours ago) and read 10899 times:

One World needs a solid Africa presence as well and unfortunately for them all the viable carriers are part of an alliance now from that continent.

India too is a market that needs to be looked at again with Air India as a partner as they will gain massive political leverage in India if this comes through positively. In addition, they shall benefit as AI flies into all the major OW hubs such as HKG, LHR, JFK, ORD, NRT, DOH, CMB and soon SYD so a no brainer there.

AI-AA can code share on DEL-ORD and JFK-DEL/BOM.

AI-QF can code share on AI's soon to be launched B787 nonstop service to SYD/MEL and in turn AI can code share on QF via Australia to AKL/CHC.

CX-AI can code share on all HKG-India flights + AI can code share on CX's trans-pacific services to LAX/SFO/YVR + via HKG to TPE/MNL

BA-AI can code share on UK-India + domestically within each country + AI can code share on trans-atlantic services via LHR to USA operated by AA/BA.

JL-AI can code share on all Japan-India flights + domestically within their own respective countries + AI can code share on trans-pacific routes via NRT on JAL.

With regards to QR-AI, QR can code share on domestic India where as the main benefit for AI with QR is to code share on DOH-Africa and DOH-Levant/Iraq/Iran services.


User currently offlineQANTASvJet From United Kingdom, joined Sep 2012, 79 posts, RR: 0
Reply 2, posted (2 years 1 month 2 weeks 4 days 19 hours ago) and read 10890 times:

What will OneWorld do - or maybe the question is what will it have done to it? Etihad just dragged AirBerlin into an alliance with AF/KLM. Emirates has taken QANTAS, nominally still part of OneWorld but not at all in its heart, and Emirates is also circling JAL and AA. None of those will actually leave OneWorld, but if Emirates gets its way, nor will they help it. It also looks like LATAM will hedge its bets by keeping LAN in the alliance but letting TAM play the field. That leaves Cathay Pacific, who have never had much to do with their OneWorld partners, and Finnair and Royal Jordanian, both of which are snookered by the Qatar deal. Oh, and S7. From Siberia. Excuse me?

User currently offlinejustinlee From China, joined Aug 2012, 331 posts, RR: 0
Reply 3, posted (2 years 1 month 2 weeks 4 days 19 hours ago) and read 10827 times:

I will just say something about HU. CX thinks that HU's base is to close to HKG but actually HU is building its largest hub in PEK now. They are exclusively using PEK T1 now and open various international connections such as DXB, BER, SVO, ZRH, SEA and so on. I think OW should seize this opportunity to acquire HU as soon as possible because it's the last possible partner in Mainland China now.

User currently offlineQANTASvJet From United Kingdom, joined Sep 2012, 79 posts, RR: 0
Reply 4, posted (2 years 1 month 2 weeks 4 days 19 hours ago) and read 10807 times:

Justinlee is of course right about HU. When will WW read the riot act to CX? You can understand why his predessor was diplomatic, but not him.

User currently offlineCX282 From Germany, joined May 2012, 20 posts, RR: 0
Reply 5, posted (2 years 1 month 2 weeks 4 days 18 hours ago) and read 10484 times:

Quoting behramjee (Reply 1):

I think they will add Royal Air Maroc sooner or later. While they might not be as big as ET/MS/KQ, they have a decent western African presence. I would have loved ET in oneworld, but now they have to pick what's left in Africa.


User currently onlineASA From Bangladesh, joined Dec 2010, 784 posts, RR: 2
Reply 6, posted (2 years 1 month 2 weeks 4 days 18 hours ago) and read 10419 times:

i think the right question is: What would Al-Baker do?   

User currently offlinecageyjames From United States of America, joined Nov 2006, 339 posts, RR: 0
Reply 7, posted (2 years 1 month 2 weeks 4 days 18 hours ago) and read 10383 times:

OW needs to get US out of Star. Even if the American merger doesn't happen, AA + US would make OneWorld a very strong "airline" in USA.

Africa is a tough nut. SA, ET and MS are the perfect choices. Alas *A already has them wrapped up.

[Edited 2012-10-09 14:55:59]

User currently offlineleftyboarder From Turkey, joined Apr 2008, 693 posts, RR: 1
Reply 8, posted (2 years 1 month 2 weeks 4 days 18 hours ago) and read 10359 times:

If Nigeria could've overcome corruption and come up with a reasonable airline, that would've been the ideal partner for OW if you ask me. Perfect location to connect Africa to AA and LA with a large home market. Of course with Arik gone there is not even a candidate. AT is indeed their best bet in Africa.

And India... If UL can build a strong base in CMB, it can assume the role of leaping stone into India, me thinks.


User currently offlineiFlyLOTs From United States of America, joined Apr 2012, 492 posts, RR: 0
Reply 9, posted (2 years 1 month 2 weeks 4 days 17 hours ago) and read 10274 times:

Quoting leftyboarder (Reply 8):
Of course with Arik gone there is not even a candidate

I thought that they had only stopped domestic operations, and that international were still operating relatively normally.

I see them making a play at any African carrier that they can get and is somewhat proven, and possibly an Indian one (they should have gone for 9W over IT).

I also think that a Canadian carrier could be in the mix, WestJet maybe?



"...stay hungry, stay foolish" -Steve Jobs
User currently offlinegauravpai From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 10, posted (2 years 1 month 2 weeks 4 days 9 hours ago) and read 9616 times:

Quoting iFlyLOTs (Reply 9):
And India... If UL can build a strong base in CMB, it can assume the role of leaping stone into India, me thinks.

i seriously doubt that ULs expansion plans are limited and there are enough direct connections to most cities in india QR themselves serve a lot of cities on their own  

One world has so many criss cross inter airline agreements its fascinating almost like a soap drama!

Quoting iFlyLOTs (Reply 9):
and possibly an Indian one (they should have gone for 9W over IT)

dont think 9W will join oneworld ,if at all it will join star alliance in the near future depending on the ongoing AI-LH fiasco

Quoting behramjee (Reply 1):
With regards to QR-AI, QR can code share on domestic India where as the main benefit for AI with QR is to code share on DOH-Africa and DOH-Levant/Iraq/Iran services
Quoting QANTASvJet (Reply 2):
CX-AI can code share on all HKG-India flights + AI can code share on CX's trans-pacific services to LAX/SFO/YVR + via HKG to TPE/MNL

Absolutely   

Quoting QANTASvJet (Reply 2):
AI-AA can code share on DEL-ORD and JFK-DEL/BOM.

dont think they will as del ord and jfk del and ewr bom flights are doing fine with good pax and cargo loads

cheers


User currently offlineAirlineCritic From Finland, joined Mar 2009, 731 posts, RR: 1
Reply 11, posted (2 years 1 month 2 weeks 4 days 7 hours ago) and read 8832 times:

Implode? Fracture?

Not just after QR but also after QF/EK and AB/KL/AF cases.


User currently offlinegauravpai From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 12, posted (2 years 1 month 2 weeks 4 days 6 hours ago) and read 8711 times:

Quoting AirlineCritic (Reply 11):
Implode? Fracture?

 


User currently offline3rdGen From Bahrain, joined Jul 2011, 240 posts, RR: 0
Reply 13, posted (2 years 1 month 2 weeks 4 days 4 hours ago) and read 7865 times:

OW need a good domestic Indian carrier like IndiGo, they have enough connectivity into India. The entire alliance picture is messed up, but I believe there'll be a big shift in allegiances soon, alliances need to consolidate and trim down to their core members who are full heartedly on board with the alliance and then rebuild from there.

User currently offlineRyanairGuru From Australia, joined Oct 2006, 5906 posts, RR: 5
Reply 14, posted (2 years 1 month 2 weeks 4 days 4 hours ago) and read 7709 times:

Quoting QANTASvJet (Reply 2):
QANTAS, nominally still part of OneWorld but not at all in its heart

What? QF are much more in OW than AB and CX. I still don't understand why people think QF have turned their back on OW, other than terminating their JSA with BA nothing has changed. QF worships the ground at AA's feet and despite running in direct competition with LA TPAC they have a very important code sharing agreement with them within South America.

And even with BA, the change isn't as drastic as everyone makes it out. I've seen much speculation about who BA's new partner to Australia will be (CX, MH, QR). News flash: they don't need a new partner, they already have a perfectly decent one. BA and QF are going to continue to codeshare on flight from Aus-Asia and Asia-UK, the only think they won't do is revenue share.

Quoting cageyjames (Reply 7):
OW needs to get US out of Star. Even if the American merger doesn't happen, AA + US would make OneWorld a very strong "airline" in USA.

I agree. Along with JJ I think this should be their #1 priority. US, even as a standalone carrier, would complement AA nicely.



Worked Hard, Flew Right
User currently offlineqf002 From Australia, joined Jul 2011, 2994 posts, RR: 2
Reply 15, posted (2 years 1 month 2 weeks 4 days 3 hours ago) and read 7559 times:

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 14):
QF worships the ground at AA's feet

I think the worshiping is probably around the other way. QF brings a whole lot more to AA than AA does to QF (at least that's always been my impression).

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 14):
And even with BA, the change isn't as drastic as everyone makes it out.

   Many people also forget that EK only flies to 30-odd European cities, while BA flies to over 90 -- QF will still make use of BA connections through LHR to help cover small cities that EK can never hope to serve.


User currently offlinegegarrenton From United States of America, joined Aug 2012, 211 posts, RR: 0
Reply 16, posted (2 years 1 month 2 weeks 4 days 1 hour ago) and read 6917 times:

Quoting qf002 (Reply 15):
I think the worshiping is probably around the other way. QF brings a whole lot more to AA than AA does to QF (at least that's always been my impression).

The feed AA gives QF is considerably higher than the other way around.


User currently offlineiFlyLOTs From United States of America, joined Apr 2012, 492 posts, RR: 0
Reply 17, posted (2 years 1 month 2 weeks 4 days 1 hour ago) and read 6776 times:

Quoting gauravpai (Reply 10):
dont think 9W will join oneworld ,if at all it will join star alliance in the near future depending on the ongoing AI-LH fiasco

Oh, I don't think that they will either, but instead of going for IT, they should have made a play for 9W.



"...stay hungry, stay foolish" -Steve Jobs
User currently offlineRyanairGuru From Australia, joined Oct 2006, 5906 posts, RR: 5
Reply 18, posted (2 years 1 month 2 weeks 4 days 1 hour ago) and read 6619 times:

Quoting qf002 (Reply 15):
QF brings a whole lot more to AA than AA does to QF (at least that's always been my impression).

QF gives AA a small market of 21 mn people which would certainly neither make or break AA. AA gives QF access to a vitally important part of its network and its most profitable long haul market.

I think AA is definitely more valuable to QF than v.v.



Worked Hard, Flew Right
User currently offlineaaexecplat From United States of America, joined Sep 2009, 636 posts, RR: 4
Reply 19, posted (2 years 1 month 2 weeks 4 days ago) and read 6535 times:

I think the priorities for OW should be (in no particular order) :

- Lure HU in the alliance (for a solid mainland China presence)
- "Steal" US from Star and include them in the TATL JV/ATI (for a beefed up US network)
- Lure AI into OW now that Jet has gone to Star already (for a solid India presence)


User currently offlineTWA85 From United States of America, joined Feb 2012, 225 posts, RR: 0
Reply 20, posted (2 years 1 month 2 weeks 3 days 23 hours ago) and read 6094 times:

Quoting behramjee (Reply 1):
One World needs a solid Africa presence as well and unfortunately for them all the viable carriers are part of an alliance now from that continent.



This a valid point, oneworld is very weak in Africa, however oneworld does not seem to be very concerned for their lack of African coverage. Why is this? As for oneworld expansion, the best option would be to recruit regional African airlines and funnel their traffic to destinations served oneworld airlines that provide long-haul service to and from Africa.

Quoting behramjee (Reply 1):
India too is a market that needs to be looked at again with Air India as a partner as they will gain massive political leverage in India if this comes through positively. In addition, they shall benefit as AI flies into all the major OW hubs such as HKG, LHR, JFK, ORD, NRT, DOH, CMB and soon SYD so a no brainer there.



AI would make a great addition to oneworld in terms of Indian coverage, however AI has many of the same problems that IT does, just with the advantage of backing from the GOI. IndiGo would probably be oneworlds best option as the have the largest domestic network in India with a stable financial balance sheet. Also oneworld CEO Bruce Ashby is a former IndiGo CEO.


As for mainland China, after further researching HU, they appear to have a lot of strength in secondary long-haul markets like SEA, BRU, ZRH, DME, etc. and have no presence in major oneworld hubs like LAX, JFK, NRT, LHR, etc. which could be a bit of an issue. Does HU have any long term plans to expand into these global markets?


User currently offlineIrishAyes From United States of America, joined Jan 2008, 2230 posts, RR: 15
Reply 21, posted (2 years 1 month 2 weeks 3 days 22 hours ago) and read 5895 times:

Quoting gauravpai (Reply 10):
dont think they will as del ord and jfk del and ewr bom flights are doing fine with good pax and cargo loads

Yet these flights are hemorrhaging cash  
Quoting 3rdGen (Reply 13):
OW need a good domestic Indian carrier like IndiGo, they have enough connectivity into India.

IndiGo is a very successful carrier, arguably the only one in India (embarrassingly). Despite this, as a LCC, I don't believe they've reached the maturity stage where they face any major *need* to join a global alliance.

Notably, virtually none of the world's largest LCCs belong to alliances at this juncture, despite the recent evolution in the way they operate: WN, FR, U2, JT, DY, AK, VY etc. are all unaligned.

Even most hybrid airlines (G3, WS, B6) are still separate from alliances. The only hybrid carrier off the top of my head that has joined in recent years has been AB, and they are in a wacky position.

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 14):
What? QF are much more in OW than AB and CX. I still don't understand why people think QF have turned their back on OW, other than terminating their JSA with BA nothing has changed. QF worships the ground at AA's feet and despite running in direct competition with LA TPAC they have a very important code sharing agreement with them within South America.

I don't either. The world isn't ending. The approach just has changed. Europe represents ONE PART of QF's network that needed a major strategic re-think. That's it!

QF had better remain in OneWorld else it wants to watch its long-haul network unravel. It can forget about the Americas without maintaining the relationships it has with AA and LA. Those ties run very deep (at least with regards to AA) and don't seem in imminent danger of being yanked anytime soon.

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 14):
And even with BA, the change isn't as drastic as everyone makes it out. I've seen much speculation about who BA's new partner to Australia will be (CX, MH, QR). News flash: they don't need a new partner, they already have a perfectly decent one. BA and QF are going to continue to codeshare on flight from Aus-Asia and Asia-UK, the only think they won't do is revenue share.

Exactly. People are completely overlooking the fact that BA's reaction to the QF+EK tie-up and the JSA termination has been cordial. Similarly, QF/AJ's reaction to IAG's sponsorship of QR into OneWorld showed an equivalent level of mutual support.

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 14):
I agree. Along with JJ I think this should be their #1 priority. US, even as a standalone carrier, would complement AA nicely.

Agreed.

Quoting aaexecplat (Reply 19):
- Lure HU in the alliance (for a solid mainland China presence)
- "Steal" US from Star and include them in the TATL JV/ATI (for a beefed up US network)
- Lure AI into OW now that Jet has gone to Star already (for a solid India presence)

Jet has not gone to Star. Where did you get this information?

And forget about AI. Why does everyone seem to cling onto the idea that AI is this diamond in the rough that every airline/global alliance should be chasing after? They are a failed airline! There is absolutely ZERO value proposition that AI brings to the table other than the fact that they are an Indian carrier. That is hardly saying anything. Emirates deserves greater distinction for being the national carrier of India as opposed to ANY of the Indian-bred airlines, because all of them, with the exception of IndiGo, are in poor health. They are EXTREMELY limited in the manner in which they can contribute to meet the needs of an alliance in India.

Quoting TWA85 (Reply 20):
This a valid point, oneworld is very weak in Africa, however oneworld does not seem to be very concerned for their lack of African coverage. Why is this? As for oneworld expansion, the best option would be to recruit regional African airlines and funnel their traffic to destinations served oneworld airlines that provide long-haul service to and from Africa.

Africa is tricky. Much like India, on one hand its importance cannot be underplayed given the growth in emerging markets. On the other hand, the national carriers have to be able to pull their own weight as well. Unfortunately, few of African flag carriers can hold themselves to the high standards that the major alliances require in order to be granted membership.

Quoting TWA85 (Reply 20):
AI would make a great addition to oneworld in terms of Indian coverage, however AI has many of the same problems that IT does, just with the advantage of backing from the GOI. IndiGo would probably be oneworlds best option as the have the largest domestic network in India with a stable financial balance sheet. Also oneworld CEO Bruce Ashby is a former IndiGo CEO.

See my points above on 6E and AI. I think OneWorld is better off sticking with its current path of pursuing agreements with the Gulf Airlines and UL rather than wasting its time with India.



next flights: jfk-icn, icn-hkg-bkk-cdg, cdg-phl-msp
User currently offlineaaexecplat From United States of America, joined Sep 2009, 636 posts, RR: 4
Reply 22, posted (2 years 1 month 2 weeks 3 days 22 hours ago) and read 5725 times:

Quoting IrishAyes (Reply 21):
Jet has not gone to Star. Where did you get this information?

Check this article out. Nothing has been decided, but the stars are certainly aligned.

http://travel.usatoday.com/alliance/...ion-to-Join-Star-Alliance/820106/1


User currently offlineUnited787 From United States of America, joined May 2005, 2745 posts, RR: 2
Reply 23, posted (2 years 1 month 2 weeks 3 days 22 hours ago) and read 5705 times:

It would seem that even without an African partner, MAD is well located geographically for Africa, kind of like MIA to South America. Especially for North America and Western Europe to Western Africa. But, it doesn't seem like IB is very strong to Africa, why is that? At least not like AA is to Latin America or UA is to Asia... I know they do have a number of destinations covered but I would expect more given their location...

User currently offlineIrishAyes From United States of America, joined Jan 2008, 2230 posts, RR: 15
Reply 24, posted (2 years 1 month 2 weeks 3 days 22 hours ago) and read 5675 times:

Quoting aaexecplat (Reply 22):
Check this article out. Nothing has been decided, but the stars are certainly aligned.

Just because 9W has submitted a request to the GOI does not mean they will be given the green light. This is far from being a done deal. Based on previous patterns, I doubt the GOI will grant 9W any sort of permission unless there is some immediate benefit to AI as well.



next flights: jfk-icn, icn-hkg-bkk-cdg, cdg-phl-msp
User currently offlineIrishAyes From United States of America, joined Jan 2008, 2230 posts, RR: 15
Reply 25, posted (2 years 1 month 2 weeks 3 days 22 hours ago) and read 5751 times:

Quoting United787 (Reply 23):
It would seem that even without an African partner, MAD is well located geographically for Africa, kind of like MIA to South America. Especially for North America and Western Europe to Western Africa. But, it doesn't seem like IB is very strong to Africa, why is that? At least not like AA is to Latin America or UA is to Asia... I know they do have a number of destinations covered but I would expect more given their location...

You can't really compare traffic patterns between two geographic locations in this manner and draw many conclusions from such comparisons. It really has more to do with evaluating the business and cultural ties (or lack thereof) between Spain and Africa. Based on what I know, there are very few.

Spain has much stronger connections with Latin America and the Caribbean (hence, why you have IB's robust long-haul network across the Atlantic). Conversely, Africa has stronger ties with the U.K, Germany, France, Belgium, Netherlands, Portugal etc. etc. rather than Spain. Although MAD is indeed geographically well-suited to cater to African traffic, much of that demand is already satisfied via LHR, FRA, CDG, AMS, etc.

In your example, MIA not only has the geographic advantage to serve Latin America, but also the other elements I listed above. The same goes for the West Coast gateway cities to Asia (namely LAX, SFO, SEA and YVR).



next flights: jfk-icn, icn-hkg-bkk-cdg, cdg-phl-msp
User currently offlinejustinlee From China, joined Aug 2012, 331 posts, RR: 0
Reply 26, posted (2 years 1 month 2 weeks 3 days 21 hours ago) and read 5556 times:

Quoting TWA85 (Reply 20):
As for mainland China, after further researching HU, they appear to have a lot of strength in secondary long-haul markets like SEA, BRU, ZRH, DME, etc. and have no presence in major oneworld hubs like LAX, JFK, NRT, LHR, etc. which could be a bit of an issue. Does HU have any long term plans to expand into these global markets?

Because the primary hub for HU, HAK, is definitely a tourism airport and too close to HKG. They want to expand their international routes from their secondary hub PEK, which is a far larger market. But CA is the landlord of PEK! They will never compete with CA in the existing routes so what they plan to do is opening new secondary markets routes out of PEK.


User currently offlinekyrone From United States of America, joined Mar 2011, 126 posts, RR: 0
Reply 27, posted (2 years 1 month 2 weeks 3 days 18 hours ago) and read 5204 times:

I think they still have a lot of internal work to do. They need to cooperate with each other on a larger scale

User currently offlineRyanairGuru From Australia, joined Oct 2006, 5906 posts, RR: 5
Reply 28, posted (2 years 1 month 2 weeks 3 days 18 hours ago) and read 5125 times:

Quoting IrishAyes (Reply 21):
Even most hybrid airlines (G3, WS, SA)">B6) are still separate from alliances

Just too nitpick, after AB I'd suggest that VA is the most prominent "hybrid" carrier. After all, they operate long haul flights and have a 2 class domestic product, something WS and SA)">B6 haven't done (yet)

Quoting IrishAyes (Reply 21):
few of African flag carriers can hold themselves to the high standards that the major alliances require in order to be granted membership.

Agreed, and those 4 that are (SA, KQ, ET and MS) are already aligned.

Quoting United787 (Reply 23):
MAD is well located geographically for Africa, kind of like MIA to South America.

There is very little O&D traffic between Spain and Africa.

If you look at the major European carriers, they have a "strength" in markets which were previously colonial possessions. For example: BA to South/East Africa and India, AF to North/West Africa, IB to Latin America, TP to Brazil.

Spain simply doesn't have the historical economic and cultural links to Africa to make MAD a viable market from that continent, unless IAG can figure out how to operate an EK style operation



Worked Hard, Flew Right
User currently offlineByrdluvs747 From United States of America, joined Jul 2004, 2424 posts, RR: 1
Reply 29, posted (2 years 1 month 2 weeks 3 days 16 hours ago) and read 4950 times:

Before all the other suggestions about India.. China.. TAM.. and Africa, OW(mostly IAG) needs to secure AB. Otherwise the alliance will be facing another DL-JL situation. I foresee AF making a bid for a percentage of AB, and combined with EY forcing AB over to Skypiles.

Quoting leftyboarder (Reply 8):
Of course with Arik gone there is not even a candidate.

  Arik is still operating. They only suspended domestic operations for a week.

Quoting United787 (Reply 23):
It would seem that even without an African partner, MAD is well located geographically for Africa,

I have been saying for years that AA needed to start direct African flights and stop relying on the old Colonial mentality of routing pax through Europe. DL and UA took the initiative and left AA(OW) in the dust.



The 747: The hands who designed it were guided by god.
User currently offlineqf002 From Australia, joined Jul 2011, 2994 posts, RR: 2
Reply 30, posted (2 years 1 month 2 weeks 3 days 6 hours ago) and read 4544 times:

Quoting gegarrenton (Reply 16):
The feed AA gives QF is considerably higher than the other way around.
Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 18):
QF gives AA a small market of 21 mn people which would certainly neither make or break AA. AA gives QF access to a vitally important part of its network and its most profitable long haul market.

Very true, though AA's feed could have been easily replicated by pretty much any other North American airline.

The way I see it, QF's services generate a lot of traffic for AA. It's traffic that comes to AA for virtually no investment or ongoing requirement to do anything other than continue to fly planes. This also includes a lot of high yielding corporate traffic, and passengers chasing frequent flyer points...

I'm not saying that AA isn't important to QF's success in North America. It just strikes me that AA get a lot out of their relationship with QF for very little effort/investment.


User currently offlineneveragain From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 31, posted (2 years 1 month 2 weeks 3 days 3 hours ago) and read 4321 times:

Quoting TWA85 (Thread starter):
Will Oneworld focus on developing closer relationships between its members in a further attempt to narrow the gap between them and the other two alliances?

I'd like to know why there is the perception that there is a gap between oneworld and the other two alliances (and, for the record, I'm no fan of oneworld). These new bilaterals are proof to me that alliances are an overblown marketing tool. There are plenty of airlines out there in the same alliance that have nothing more than an interline relationship with matched elite benefits and frequent flyer benefits (with the latter diluted in many cases). Joint venture relationships are really all that matter.

Quoting TWA85 (Reply 20):
This a valid point, oneworld is very weak in Africa, however oneworld does not seem to be very concerned for their lack of African coverage. Why is this?

Concluding that oneworld "does not seem to be very concerned for their lack of African coverage" because they have no African affiliate is spurious.

Quoting IrishAyes (Reply 21):
QF had better remain in OneWorld else it wants to watch its long-haul network unravel. It can forget about the Americas without maintaining the relationships it has with AA and LA. Those ties run very deep (at least with regards to AA) and don't seem in imminent danger of being yanked anytime soon.

QF could very well decide it makes sense to leave oneworld and sign agreements with AA and LA similar to the one it just signed with EK. Hell, it could sign an agreement with UA or DL, for that matter.

Quoting IrishAyes (Reply 21):
People are completely overlooking the fact that BA's reaction to the QF+EK tie-up and the JSA termination has been cordial.

Perhaps. On the other hand, it could be a bit naive to take what's quoted in the press at face value. Do you expect Willie Walsh to advertise to the industry that he's upset with Qantas over its decision?


User currently offlinecommavia From United States of America, joined Apr 2005, 11840 posts, RR: 62
Reply 32, posted (2 years 1 month 2 weeks 3 days 3 hours ago) and read 4281 times:

Quoting Byrdluvs747 (Reply 29):
OW(mostly IAG) needs to secure AB. Otherwise the alliance will be facing another DL-JL situation. I foresee AF making a bid for a percentage of AB, and combined with EY forcing AB over to Skypiles.

Maybe, except that Air Berlin is, in the scheme of things, far less important to oneworld than JAL, which was and is a pivotal, strategically important member for the alliance. The oneworld alliance would have survived without JAL, but it would have taken a huge hit. I don't even know if oneworld would take all that much of a hit from losing Air Berlin - whose network doesn't align much with the rest of the alliance and exchanges only marginal amounts of feed with other alliance members - chiefly BA, Iberia, Finnair and AA.

If Air France-KLM - backed by Etihad or not - started a huge effort to pry Air Berlin away, I don't realistically see IAG or oneworld putting up all that much of a fight. They would obviously prefer Air Berlin stay in the alliance, but I doubt they would expend all that much time or energy - let alone money - keeping Air Berlin in.

Quoting qf002 (Reply 30):
The way I see it, QF's services generate a lot of traffic for AA. It's traffic that comes to AA for virtually no investment or ongoing requirement to do anything other than continue to fly planes. This also includes a lot of high yielding corporate traffic, and passengers chasing frequent flyer points...

I'm not saying that AA isn't important to QF's success in North America. It just strikes me that AA get a lot out of their relationship with QF for very little effort/investment.

Could the same not be said in reverse, though? QANTAS, through the AA partnership, gets a ready-made North American distribution network that it could never replicate on its own. I don't think it can be easily determined which got more from which - I think the bottom line is that both have benefited enormously from each other.


User currently offlineRyanairGuru From Australia, joined Oct 2006, 5906 posts, RR: 5
Reply 33, posted (2 years 1 month 2 weeks 3 days ago) and read 4078 times:

Quoting qf002 (Reply 30):
QF's services generate a lot of traffic for AA. It's traffic that comes to AA for virtually no investment or ongoing requirement to do anything other than continue to fly planes

While I don't doubt that AA get traffic from QF, realistically how much is it? There are 2 A380s and 1 747 to LAX, and we know from what QF have said before that the majority of that traffic is O&D LAX. Also QF interline with other carriers (AS for example). Let's say that after all this 35% of LAX passengers connect to AA, or roughly 380 passengers a day. At DFW the figure is obviously higher, but even then there is O&D DFW traffic and I see a surprisingly high number of interline options with US come up on consolidator sites such as WebJet and Expedia (ie. SYD-DFW-CLT-xxx). Let's say that 75% of passengers are connecting to AA, or roughly 250 passengers per day. Somehow I doubt that an airline that carries 275,000 passengers per day will loose too much sleep if it lost 630.
(source re AMR pax: http://www.aa.com/i18n/amrcorp/corporateInformation/facts/amr.jsp)

The other thing to consider is that the domestic code share tag of any long haul-short haul connection is generally very low yielding. This is something which beset BD, who ran domestic flights which largely fed *A partners and collected very little revenue for doing so. As a practical example, in May my mum flew BNE-LAX-CLT-GSO on VA and US on a combined PNR under one ticket number. If you looked at the fare breakdown, $10 (yes, 10!) went to US for carrying her LAX-CLT-GSO-CLT-LAX, with about $2000 going to VA (and the government).

While I don't doubt the strategic importance of the QF-AA tie up, I believe that QF benefit from enjoying a comprehensive network in its largest long haul market to a much greater extent than AA do picking up those passengers.

Quoting qf002 (Reply 30):
AA's feed could have been easily replicated by pretty much any other North American airline.

In terms of traffic flows you are right, but it probably wouldn't be permissible.

I think that in terms of domestic connectivity that UA would be a better partner than AA. They have a more significant operation in terms of routes served at LAX, and better links to the East Coast (especially secondary markets) at IAH does at DFW. Also, I'm pretty certain that UA have a better Central/South America network from IAH than AA do at DFW given that it is their primary LatAm hub vis-a-vis MIA.

The problem is that as UA (and DL for that matter) fly to Aus, QF would not get regulatory approval for any tie-up with them. The main reason that QF-AA JSA was approved was because AA didn't fly to Aus and had no intention of doing so, meaning that their agreement didn't reduce competition.

Because of this AA are QF's only effective option in North America. Sure, they might be able to cosy up to VX or fly to PHX to connect with US, but in terms of network those are fairly insignificant (If they could reach CLT I would sing a different tune, but they can't so it's irrelevant)



Worked Hard, Flew Right
User currently offlineneveragain From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 34, posted (2 years 1 month 2 weeks 3 days ago) and read 4066 times:

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 33):
better links to the East Coast (especially secondary markets) at IAH does at DFW.

Not true. AA's domestic operation at DFW is much bigger than UA's at IAH, both in frequency and capacity.

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 33):
Also, I'm pretty certain that UA have a better Central/South America network from IAH than AA do at DFW given that it is their primary LatAm hub vis-a-vis MIA.

True.

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 33):
The problem is that as UA (and DL for that matter) fly to Aus, QF would not get regulatory approval for any tie-up with them.

As long as there's open skies between the US and Australia, I don't see what the problem would be on the US side. The Australia side of the equation is even more liberal, no?

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 33):
Because of this AA are QF's only effective option in North America. Sure, they might be able to cosy up to VX or fly to PHX to connect with US, but in terms of network those are fairly insignificant (If they could reach CLT I would sing a different tune, but they can't so it's irrelevant)

Don't think so.


User currently offlineRyanairGuru From Australia, joined Oct 2006, 5906 posts, RR: 5
Reply 35, posted (2 years 1 month 2 weeks 2 days 18 hours ago) and read 3812 times:

Quoting neveragain (Reply 34):
Don't think so.

I should have made it clearer: CLT would have made US a more realistic partner IF AA weren't available. I wasn't saying that if they could fly to CLT they would ditch DFW.

Quoting neveragain (Reply 34):
AA's domestic operation at DFW is much bigger than UA's at IAH, both in frequency and capacity.

Looking again I see that you're right. I think I was getting confused with UA operating into more smaller markets on the East Coast overall, but that's because they have two fortress hubs at EWR and IAD, whereas AA doesn't really have a proper East Coast connecting hub (MIA not withstanding)

Quoting neveragain (Reply 34):
As long as there's open skies between the US and Australia, I don't see what the problem would be on the US side

While not wholly determinative, the DoT put particular emphasis on the fact that AA do not - and will not - fly to Australia, meaning that there is no effective reduction in competition:

AA and QF [Qantas] have no overlapping nonstop transpacific routes. AA states that it does not have aircraft currently capable of providing nonstop service between the U.S. and Australia and that its existing labor agreements preclude nonstop flights over U.S.-South Pacific stage lengths.

“Accordingly, we conclude that American is unlikely to become a nonstop competitor between the U.S. and Australia, and that no reduction in the number of nonstop competitors would result from approving the application.”

Source: http://aviationblog.dallasnews.com/2...t-approves-qantas-american-a.html/



Worked Hard, Flew Right
User currently offlineneveragain From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 36, posted (2 years 1 month 2 weeks 2 days 18 hours ago) and read 3792 times:

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 35):
I should have made it clearer: CLT would have made US a more realistic partner IF AA weren't available. I wasn't saying that if they could fly to CLT they would ditch DFW.

I should've been clearer--I was disagreeing your assertion that AA was QF's only option in the US.

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 35):
While not wholly determinative, the DoT put particular emphasis on the fact that AA do not - and will not - fly to Australia, meaning that there is no effective reduction in competition:

What was the rationale for the approval of the Delta-Virgin Australia alliance? (I'm asking seriously here. If I recall correctly, it was disapproved once.)


User currently offlineSCL767 From Chile, joined Feb 2006, 8862 posts, RR: 5
Reply 37, posted (2 years 1 month 2 weeks 2 days 18 hours ago) and read 3753 times:

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 14):
and despite running in direct competition with LA TPAC they have a very important code sharing agreement with them within South America.

QF code-shares on LAN's routes within South America? Also, remember that CX code-shares on LA800/LA801. In fact, LAN has a very strong bilateral code-share relationship with CX whereby LA code-shares on CX operated flights via AKL, JFK, LAX, and SFO. CX code-shares on LAN operated flights to SCL via AKL, JFK and LAX; as well as LAN operated flights to LIM via JFK, LAX and SFO.


User currently offlineRyanairGuru From Australia, joined Oct 2006, 5906 posts, RR: 5
Reply 38, posted (2 years 1 month 2 weeks 2 days 18 hours ago) and read 3710 times:

Quoting SCL767 (Reply 37):
QF code-shares on LAN's routes within South America?

Codeshare was the wrong word. Interline. One of the main reasons that SCL replaced EZE was to fly into LAN's primary hub and therefore improve connectivity to the rest of the continent, but you are right: LAN flights don't actually carry QF codes.

Quoting neveragain (Reply 36):
What was the rationale for the approval of the Delta-Virgin Australia alliance? (I'm asking seriously here. If I recall correctly, it was disapproved once.)

Back in 2009 Aus-USA was a blood bath with 2 new entrants dumping capacity during the biggest downturn in air travel in recent times. This wasn't DL and VA's fault, rather bad luck with the timing of the Open Skies agreement. Fares fell below $1000 in some cases, levels which were totally unsustainable. At the way things were going, at least one carrier was going to have to pull out.

DL and VA shared the same problems: they were the new comers, with no brand awareness nor feed at the opposite end of the route. They recognised that it was in their joint interests to join together, with DL marketing and feeding at the US end and DJ marketing and feeding at the Aus end.

They sought regulatory approval for a JBA. You are right, at first it was denied. They then complied with some additional requests, the main one being an undertaking from both airlines that neither would reduce capacity if the JBA was approved. The partnership was approved for 3 years, with no guarantee of being renewed. This 3 year term was to give the two new comers a leg up in the market, and therefore shore up long term competition. It was expected that at the end of that time both would be sufficiently established that they would be able to stand alone in the market. In effect the DoT allowed a short term reduction in competition, believing that doing so was in the long term competitive interest.



Worked Hard, Flew Right
User currently offlineneveragain From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 39, posted (2 years 1 month 2 weeks 2 days 17 hours ago) and read 3676 times:

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 38):

They sought regulatory approval for a JBA. You are right, at first it was denied. They then complied with some additional requests, the main one being an undertaking from both airlines that neither would reduce capacity if the JBA was approved. The partnership was approved for 3 years, with no guarantee of being renewed. This 3 year term was to give the two new comers a leg up in the market, and therefore shore up long term competition. It was expected that at the end of that time both would be sufficiently established that they would be able to stand alone in the market. In effect the DoT allowed a short term reduction in competition, believing that doing so was in the long term competitive interest.

The memory jog is much appreciated. I take your point now.


User currently offlineallrite From Australia, joined Aug 2007, 2193 posts, RR: 5
Reply 40, posted (2 years 1 month 2 weeks 2 days 14 hours ago) and read 3563 times:

Quoting justinlee (Reply 3):
I think OW should seize this opportunity to acquire HU as soon as possible because it's the last possible partner in Mainland China now.
Quoting behramjee (Reply 1):

One World needs a solid Africa presence as well and unfortunately for them all the viable carriers are part of an alliance now from that continent.

In a recent speech the Qantas CEO mentioned their relationship with non-Oneworld members South African Airways for African flights and China Eastern, in addition to Emirates. Airlines and passengers are not restricted to the alliances - I would say that the ability to easily get to a destination (codeshare/interline) is more important in the end to a passenger than being able to do it in the same alliance.



Applying insanity to normality
User currently offlineqf002 From Australia, joined Jul 2011, 2994 posts, RR: 2
Reply 41, posted (2 years 1 month 2 weeks 2 days 13 hours ago) and read 3477 times:

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 33):
While I don't doubt that AA get traffic from QF, realistically how much is it?

I don't disagree, though in my mind this argument serves to undermine QF's reliance on AA as much as it serves to prove their dependence.

I certainly don't agree that AA is 'vital' to QF's success in North America. Most of QF's traffic travels all the way to their destination on QF/JQ (just under 70%, plus passengers flying to JFK, using your figures). The vast majority of those who do connect will be connecting to a major city, which can easily be covered using alternative partners. The few passengers going further to smaller/regional cities can be covered with the same sort of arrangement QF has today, by simply selling tickets on other airlines flights (ie the large number of flights they offer on US to CLT).

This discussion has me seriously doubting if either airline particularly 'worships' the other... They actually seem to be pretty equal partners.


User currently offlineRyanairGuru From Australia, joined Oct 2006, 5906 posts, RR: 5
Reply 42, posted (2 years 1 month 2 weeks 2 days 12 hours ago) and read 3400 times:

Quoting qf002 (Reply 41):

I see what you mean, I guess I've come full circle in my logic.

Nonetheless, QF have put their eggs in the AA basket and that's where they are likely to stay, OW or no OW. I think we can agree on that much  



Worked Hard, Flew Right
User currently offlineneveragain From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 43, posted (2 years 1 month 2 weeks 2 days ago) and read 2997 times:

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 38):
They then complied with some additional requests, the main one being an undertaking from both airlines that neither would reduce capacity if the JBA was approved. The partnership was approved for 3 years, with no guarantee of being renewed.

RyanairGuru--I was reminded of what I learned yesterday while reading an article about the QF-EK tie-up. There was no mention of fears regarding similar restrictions applying in this case. Is there a reason why QF-EK would fly and QF-UA would not?

I have no dog in this hunt--I don't care if QF ditches AA in favor of UA, just wondering if it's correct to conclude that QF is wedded to AA in the US.


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