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The Future Of Cathay Pacific  
User currently offlineCXCPA From Hong Kong, joined May 2000, 387 posts, RR: 0
Posted (13 years 2 weeks 6 days 10 hours ago) and read 3478 times:

Now, Taiwan government agree to operate direct flights between Taiwan and mainland China. The mainland government has been wanting direct flights between mainland and Taiwan. The direct flights will operate soon. So that the most profitable CX route--flying between Taipei and Hong Kong will become less profitable becuase most passengers of that routes fly between Taiwan and mainland, not between Hong Kong and Taipei. And the economic turns down, so that fewer people travel to other countries. People do not have enough money to buy large amount of products. So that the traffic figures of passengers and cargo will go down. The fuel cost is increasing...Now, their pilots seems know nothing about this, they still want to have high pay rise at this poor situation. This cause CX earn very little. So CX do not have enough money to improve their services. But other airlines do not face so great problem, they can earn enough money to improve their service. As a result, no one will travel CX, then CX will bankrupt. Cathay Pacific, no hope now...
If you want to travel by CX, you should do it now. Otherwise, you cannot travel by CX....
CX is a potentially sick company, CX need to consult a company doctor. Many people cannot observe this now. But they will observe it in the near future.
Hkgspotter1 and CX flyboy, do you have any comment?

26 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineCx flyboy From Hong Kong, joined Dec 1999, 6601 posts, RR: 55
Reply 1, posted (13 years 2 weeks 6 days 10 hours ago) and read 3379 times:

The problem does not neccessarily lie in staff costs, but the fact that management have no forsight. China and Taiwan are going to have direct flights. Everyone knows this. People have known this for years. The question has been when.

Look at Singapore airlines. They have a huge fleet and route network, yet Singapore's population is even smaller than Hong Kong's. SIA carry many passengers through Singapore on their way to other places. This is their main business. How about Cathay? We do this, but only on a small scale. It has been estimated that HKG-TPE provides up to 20% of flight revenue. If direct flights start up, along with Dragonair's TPE flights, Cathay will lose market share. No question about it. Cathay rely on the TPE route too much. We should have a fleet double the size that we do. People flying from Europe to Australia should always fly Cathay. People flying from the US to Asia should fly Cathay, but they do not.....not in any great numbers anyway. Cathay has passenger flights to 3 US destinations. Paethetic.

There are a lot of places that we could be flying at the moment and we are not. CX management are the first to jump up and limit expansion at the first sight of any downturn, but when times get better, they do nothing. When the economy last had it's problems, Cathay got rid of all the 747 classics. 6 747-300s and 7 747-200s. That's a lot of aircraft. When the economy improved, Cathay did not have enough pilots, and not enough planes. We did not have the capacity to cover the normal flights, let alone add charter flights to other destinatins, as many other Asian carriers were doing. We lost out. We always lose out..

If this management had the foresight to expand and spread ourselves across many more markets, then it would not matter if conditions changed on a certain route. At the moment we rely too much on a few routes. If we lost those few routes, there would be huge ramifications and that's not the way it should be.


User currently offlineCXCPA From Hong Kong, joined May 2000, 387 posts, RR: 0
Reply 2, posted (13 years 2 weeks 6 days 9 hours ago) and read 3362 times:

To CX flyboy,
I want to ask you a question:
Why should people travel by CX? There are many choices. Flying from America to Asia, you can choose United, ANA, Japan Airlines...
Flying from Europe to Australia, you can shoose Sngapore Airlines, Qantas and so on. Why should I travel by CX? You should know that the price of CX ticket is higher than other airlines'. Singapore Airlines have a excellent service as Cathay, but their price is lower. Why should I fly by Cathay?

Cathay Pacific will have too many aircraft. You should know that Cathay have already ordered new Airbuses. And some of their classic 747 was leased to other airlines such as PIA.

The biggest problem of CX is the operating cost. The operating cost of CX is high becuase the charge of their hub--HK Int'l--is very high, just lower than Kansai and Narita. Can CX have alternative method to reduce the operating cost?


User currently offlineCx flyboy From Hong Kong, joined Dec 1999, 6601 posts, RR: 55
Reply 3, posted (13 years 2 weeks 6 days 9 hours ago) and read 3365 times:

CXCPA,

I agree with you (For once). Why should passengers fly Cathay? They don't offer as many destinations as people like SQ do, and not as many flights in the schedule to choose from. Why should people fly CX?
Management should increase schedules, increase destinations, and lower prices. If you look at profits per aircraft in the fleet, Cathay must have one of the highest in the world. I know that running a business is all about money, but it is better to increase the size of the airline, decrease risk by exposure to a specific market, then raise prices. Cathay has always been one of the highest ranking profit making airlines in the world, but we are only a small airline. We have around 60 aircraft. Some airlines have a few hundred, yet we make some of the highest profits in the world. Even with the dispute and downturn we are still making money.
Make the fleet larger, increase the number of flights and destinations, take business away from airlines like Singapore and make everyone want to fly Cathay Pacific before even considering any other airline. I believe that we can do it with the right management, and the current one is not the right one. CXCPA, don't you want to see Cathay beat SQ? Don't you want to see Cathay as the biggest airline in Asia with the highest profits? I know I do. I want to be proud of the airline I work for.


User currently offlineUnited Airline From Hong Kong, joined Jan 2001, 9169 posts, RR: 15
Reply 4, posted (13 years 2 weeks 6 days 9 hours ago) and read 3356 times:

Cathay Pacific will NEVER go bankrupt. NO WAY! The Hong Kong Government will not allow that to happen. Besides, Swire Group is in good Financial Position and they have enough cash.

Cathay Pacific should expand into China, as well as expand globally. That will allow them to enjoy 'Economies of Scale' and can divert their sources of profit.

Regards


User currently offlineHkgspotter1 From Hong Kong, joined Nov 2005, 0 posts, RR: 0
Reply 5, posted (13 years 2 weeks 6 days 7 hours ago) and read 3344 times:

China and Taiwan have not agreed to direct flights between the two countries and will not for some time. Even if they do it will be very limited so Hong Kong and Macau have nothing to worry about.

What I worry about is some of the people on this forum !!


User currently offlineThe Coachman From Australia, joined Apr 2001, 1429 posts, RR: 0
Reply 6, posted (13 years 2 weeks 6 days 7 hours ago) and read 3340 times:

CXCPA,

That was some of the most glib and shallow analysis I have seen.

While there ARE problems, and CXflyboy has already pointed them out, to say that other airlines do have such a big problem, well, mate, you're obviously not up to date with the Australian scene.

QF has problems because its large domestic corporate accounts have been reduced in value because of the entry of Virgin Blue. It's profit dropped by about 30% (as announced recently). SYD-MEL is where the big corporate dollars are found and with Impulse having cut savagely into the yields and Virgin Blue continuing the attack, to say that other airlines don't have that problem is to say that only HKG is affected by the economic downturn...

For even worse problems, see AN. From a $AUD 157 million profit under Rod Eddington (now CEO of BA), to a multi-hundred million loss because of the corporates. AN has a massive exposure to domestic operations, even more than QF does.

The problems are not limited to CX, CXCPA. Perhaps you should get a reality check.

Perhaps we should fly QF and AN quickly before they go bust...aww...wait a minute...if we queue up for airfares, esp. at relatively higher prices, won't the airlines make a profit...

Do you see what I'm saying??

On the other hand, CXFlyboy's analysis was far better and quite enjoyable to read actually.

The Coachman



M88, 722, 732, 733, 734, 73G, 73H, 742, 743, 744, 752, 762, 763, 772, 773, 77W, 320, 332, 333, 345, 388, DH8, SF3 - want
User currently offlineLutfi From China, joined Sep 2000, 775 posts, RR: 0
Reply 7, posted (13 years 2 weeks 6 days 6 hours ago) and read 3336 times:

However, SIN is a much cheaper place to do business than HK. SQ pay no housing allowance to cabin crew, SQ salary for B744 captain is 113,000 USD a year, compared to UA 250,000 USD or so.

Easy to be successful when you pay half compared to the competition...

Interestingly, in the USA, there are no hub airlines in cities like LAX/ SFO/ NYC, as they are too expensive. The hub carriers are in cheaper locations (CHI/ORD/ATL)

MAS tried the "spread all over the world" tactic, and lost badly. EK I think will succeed, but that is because they have a very strong position in India/ Pakistan - Europe traffic, thanks to the govts there being illiberal with traffic rights, and the airlines not so good...


User currently offlineKaitak From Ireland, joined Aug 1999, 12466 posts, RR: 37
Reply 8, posted (13 years 2 weeks 6 days 5 hours ago) and read 3320 times:

I have to say, as a long time fan of CX, I am deeply worried about the airline; leaving aside the direct Taiwan routes which (as CX Flyboy said) were expected sooner or later, the airline has quite a few problems. I am seriously concerned about the long term ramifications of the current dispute and as an impartial observer (I'm not a pilot), I place the blame squarely on management's shoulders. Something needs to be done to alleviate the poisonous atmosphere between pilots and the airline and that means management offering an olive branch and pilots doing likewise, preferably in the form of a no strike clause. Things cannot go on the way they are going.

Having flown CX quite a few times, I am very much of the opinion that CX has the potential to be the best in the world; there is very little between SQ and CX, but I find CX more "laid back". But mistakes have been made; someone should have known that you should refit the long haul fleet with PTVs before the short haul fleet, yet this was done; why?

Long term, I see CX being a huge success; it has the best hub in Asia geographically speaking and this will count very much in its favour. Also if travel between Taiwan and PRC rockets, HK still stands to benefit, even if the total numbers go down; HK is still a great stopover.
Come on Cathay, GET IT TOGETHER!

(Whoever gets the Taipei - Shanghai route is going to be rolling in it! I can see that being one of the world's busiest within a few years!)


User currently offlineCXCPA From Hong Kong, joined May 2000, 387 posts, RR: 0
Reply 9, posted (13 years 2 weeks 4 days 10 hours ago) and read 3273 times:

To Hkgspotters1,
You should get the information from the professional before reply any post about the economics.
To United Arilines,
I agree that my comment is a little bit too serious. If I do not post like this, some people do not understand the problem of CX. Chinese government do not want a british owned carrier to operate flights between Hong Kong and mainland.
To CX flyboy,
Of course, I want CX to be a very large airlines. You should know that the aviation industry is a political issue. It is very complex to increase the schedule and destination.
To Lufti,
Cathay management knows that pay cut is a good method to reduce the cost. But the staff object it.If CX has pay cut again, I cannot imagine what the CX staff will do.
To Coachman,
I'm from HK, I do not familiar with the situation in Australia. QF an AN are very large firm, they also have abilities to establish new airlines in Europe. But CX do not have this ability in this moment.


User currently offlineCathay250 From Hong Kong, joined Aug 1999, 221 posts, RR: 0
Reply 10, posted (13 years 2 weeks 4 days 9 hours ago) and read 3271 times:

Yes cxflyboy is right, CX has its potential to be a large airline. I think one of the resons is the marketing problem. As cxflyboy said, CX has a large Europe and Australia network, why people don't even consider CX?

Last week, I talked to my professor in my University, at first he thought i was a Malaysian, and then he showed me the advertisment in the newspaper "The Age", which about the best cabin crew service in the world. I corrected him that i am from HongKong, and my city 's airline is Cathay Pacific, he looked confused ,and ask me whether CX got any award of best service or something, after i answered him yes, he said he never heard of that. I think this shows CX 's marketing is not doing well enough, as an Economics professor in one of the most famous Australian university never know CX is doing well in the market!!

In fact, i found many people in Australia don't know CX( or Australian don't know the outside world  Smile), but i believe CX 's service is up to standard, and worth how much they cost, most people did have a postive comment of their CX experience, .... cxflyboy is right, i found their managment is always a few steps behind


User currently offlineThe Coachman From Australia, joined Apr 2001, 1429 posts, RR: 0
Reply 11, posted (13 years 2 weeks 4 days 2 hours ago) and read 3235 times:

Cathay250,

Australians actually know a lot about the outside world thank you very much, we're not that parochial. The greatest domain of parochialism is the USA, and that comes from me being a student in American History, specialising in culture.

CXCPA,

What kind of rubbish is that???

You said "QF and AN are very large firm [sic]. They also have abilities to establish new airlines in Europe [sic]."

QF is 25% owned by BA. QF is currently struggling, AN even more so. How could you say that QF and AN have the ability to establish new AIRLINES in Europe???

 Nuts

CXCPA, your lack of knowledge is quite incredible.

Edit what you are going to post.

The Coachman




M88, 722, 732, 733, 734, 73G, 73H, 742, 743, 744, 752, 762, 763, 772, 773, 77W, 320, 332, 333, 345, 388, DH8, SF3 - want
User currently offlineLJ From Netherlands, joined Nov 1999, 4428 posts, RR: 0
Reply 12, posted (13 years 2 weeks 4 days 2 hours ago) and read 3231 times:

One other reason why CX won't go bankrupt is that Hong Kong is still a financial "hot spot" for Asia and still is the gateway for China for many European companies. As long is this remains CX would survive.

Regards
Laurens


User currently offlineKaitak From Ireland, joined Aug 1999, 12466 posts, RR: 37
Reply 13, posted (13 years 2 weeks 4 days ago) and read 3224 times:

You're correct in saying that HK's economic importance will contribute to its survival, but I don't think we're talking about the airline's survival here; we're talking about under-achieving. Cathay has the potential to be the world's best airline; it has one of the world's best hubs, it offers some of the best service, yet the CX of today is way off its best.

The current management has a lot to do with this failure and has made numerous strategic errors, has been slow and most dangerous of all, has created a dangerously poisonous atmosphere in the airline.

CX Flyboy, can you tell us what the AOA's current stance is? Are they insisting on reinstatement of the sacked crew before any further talks. I wonder if it would make sense to drop the pay claim from the current talks and focus on the sacked crews AND the rostering system; is there any sign of "give" or olive branches being waved, even secretly?


User currently offlineCx flyboy From Hong Kong, joined Dec 1999, 6601 posts, RR: 55
Reply 14, posted (13 years 2 weeks 3 days 14 hours ago) and read 3206 times:

Kaitak,

Unfortunately, no signs of talks. No olive branches. Nothing. We have just voted to increase industrial action, however, this is nothing more than a reconfirmations that we are carrying out our Maximum Safety Strategy. This is to make every flight as safe as possible, and doing EVERYTHING our company manuals tell us to without regard to OTP. If 5 minutes before departure, the Captain decides it would be good to take on a little extra fuel, then he will take it, even if it delays the aircraft by 45mins. There is actually a lot of paperwork to read and we are not allocated enough time to read it. Previously, much of it would not be read, but now, we will take our time and read it all. Our manuals tell us to.
There is no plan for a mass sick-out, or strike. Not now anyway. We are here for the long run. Management is hoping that if they ignore us, the problem will go away. Unfortunately for them, it won't.
The reinstatement of the 49 guys is a condition to the agreement of any new contract, and not a condition to talks. The AOA would talk today, if the company would allow them to. The company are simply not interested.


User currently offlineCXCPA From Hong Kong, joined May 2000, 387 posts, RR: 0
Reply 15, posted (13 years 2 weeks 3 days 11 hours ago) and read 3186 times:

To CX Flyboy,
You said that you do not have enough time for preparation. You should arrive the airport earlier. I'm very suprised that the time limit is so short.
And according to the CX management, CX will talk to AOA if AOA stop the industrial action. No employer want to talk to someone who disrupt the operation.


User currently offlineCx flyboy From Hong Kong, joined Dec 1999, 6601 posts, RR: 55
Reply 16, posted (13 years 2 weeks 2 days 15 hours ago) and read 3159 times:

CXCPA,

No company can tell people to do overtime without their agreement. The company are treating us quite badly, so why should be come in early and do overtime just to read everything?
The AOA have been in talk with the company without disruptions for 8 years. It has not helped. If the management are not under any pressure, they feel there is no hurry to fix things, so we need to provide pressure in order to solve the problem. Sad, but true.


User currently offlineCXCPA From Hong Kong, joined May 2000, 387 posts, RR: 0
Reply 17, posted (13 years 2 weeks 2 days 11 hours ago) and read 3138 times:

To CX Flyboy,
AOA disrupted the flight on June, 1999. At that time, the sick leave rate was very high. After the AOA agreed the new contract, the AOA said that the sick leave rate would become normal. It's very easy to make people think that the AOA asked the members to have sick leaves. It's a kind of disruption.
And you do not arrive earlier, but you also need to leave your work place later. So you also need to overwork. Why don't you arrive earlier? Do you want to be late?


User currently offlineCx flyboy From Hong Kong, joined Dec 1999, 6601 posts, RR: 55
Reply 18, posted (13 years 2 weeks 1 day 14 hours ago) and read 3124 times:

Obviously, by turning up late and sticking to what is said in all our company manuals, we are trying to show the management that they have stretched their resources too thinly and that they cannot run the airline efficiently without the goodwill of the pilots, as they have been doing for years. If we turn up early, this is showing goodwill. The flights will not be delayed and management will believe that there is no problem. If they think there is no problem, then there will be no solution. However, there is a problem. We need to show them that there is, so we turn up when we are supposed to. If there are delays after that, then so be it.

Besides, many flights are planned with longer than needed sector times, so even if we leave late, we arrive ontime. However, studies have shown that even in these cases, passengers still remember that you were late taking off and it leaves a bad image with them, even though they arrived early, or on time.

We are doing what we are doing to get management's attention. Unfortunately, the only way we can do this is to withdraw our goodwill and do only what the company manuals say. Nothing else. This will impact operations and eventually get management to renegotiate.


User currently offlineJiml1126 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 19, posted (13 years 2 weeks 1 day 13 hours ago) and read 3118 times:

Actually, Taiwan has revealed a list of proposed 23 destinations which Taiwan's airline will be flying, which are almost the same as DragonAir's destinations in China.

So I think both Cathay and DragonAir will be the hardest hit.

Cathay's biggest market share is from Taiwan. If Cathay didn't prepare for the aftermath of Taiwan and China opens direct airlink, CX will have a difficulty to survive.


User currently offlineCXCPA From Hong Kong, joined May 2000, 387 posts, RR: 0
Reply 20, posted (13 years 2 weeks 1 day 10 hours ago) and read 3109 times:

To Jiml 1126,
You're right. But the Dragonair's pilots do not demand for pay rise and less working hours! The Dragon's pilots want to work more! This can save the Dragonair's cost.
To CX flyboy,
Delaying the flights for a very short time do not affect the image.I've flied serval times. But it is very seldom that the plane can leave on time or earlier. The flights always need to depart later. The plane can depart on time or earlier only when the traffic is low.
To all,
The AOA said that the pilots strictly follow the safety pocedure. The AOA just say nothing! Pilots should always strictly follow the safety procedure. The aim of AOA is that they want to make people scare and threaten the CX management.


User currently offlineHkgspotter1 From Hong Kong, joined Nov 2005, 0 posts, RR: 0
Reply 21, posted (13 years 2 weeks 1 day 10 hours ago) and read 3107 times:

CXCPA.

Are you aware that the pilots at KA are pissed at KA ??

Why, for employing 747 pilots from outside the airline to fly the new 747-312F's. The KA pilots want current pilots to be trained on the 747.

May be the KA pilots will join the CX pilots soon !!



User currently offlineCXCPA From Hong Kong, joined May 2000, 387 posts, RR: 0
Reply 22, posted (13 years 2 weeks 1 day 10 hours ago) and read 3104 times:

To Hkgspotter1,
Your post prove my statement is correct. The pilots do not want the company to employ new pilots from outside, that mean they want to have more work. It's very easy to understand. You're 'cleverer' than in the past. That's 'good'! 'Thank you for your support statement.'


User currently offlineCX flyboy From Hong Kong, joined Dec 1999, 6601 posts, RR: 55
Reply 23, posted (13 years 2 weeks 1 day 7 hours ago) and read 3095 times:

CXCPA,

Why does flying a different type in your fleet (I.e. 747-300F) mean that they will have more work? Do you think that the Airbus pilots will come back to HKG after a long day and they fly the freighter instead of going home? Of course not. If KA trained their own pilots onto the 747 it would simply mean that they move up the seniority list sooner and then KA can employ some new people to join the bottom of the list. It does not mean they will fly more. We are still controlled by the law you know!!!


User currently offlineCX flyboy From Hong Kong, joined Dec 1999, 6601 posts, RR: 55
Reply 24, posted (13 years 2 weeks 1 day 7 hours ago) and read 3091 times:

CXCPA,

I quote:
---------------------------------------------
To CX flyboy,
Delaying the flights for a very short time do not affect the image.I've flied serval times. But it is very seldom that the plane can leave on time or earlier. The flights always need to depart later. The plane can depart on time or earlier only when the traffic is low.
---------------------------------------------

I really don't know what you are talking about. If you say that we are only delaying the flights by a 'very short time' and this this does not affect the image, then what are you complaining about? If this is all we are doing, what is your problem with the industrial action?


25 Post contains images Hkgspotter1 : The twilight zone !!!
26 Catpac : In summary one could say that CX future is in jeopardy.
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