kanban From United States of America, joined Jan 2008, 3547 posts, RR: 26
Reply 5, posted (1 year 10 months 3 weeks 6 days 13 hours ago) and read 34872 times:
I love the way people gloat over short term numbers and situations... the 747-8 is primarily a freighter, the 8i is an add on. the beauty is Boeing can go several years without producing one, and insert a build into the freighter line with only a few months notice.
Where I think this will get interesting is when all those first 50 A380's are up for sale and there are few if any takers
( though I suspect several will be stored for Haj operations) and there is no mod feasibility. The 747-8i can at least be converted for a second life, and remaining a passenger version, is an upgrade to -300/-400 operations that do not support anything bigger.
woodsboy From United States of America, joined Mar 2000, 1031 posts, RR: 2
Reply 7, posted (1 year 10 months 3 weeks 6 days 13 hours ago) and read 34799 times:
So, Im sure someone can dig this factoid out....: What was the forecast pre A380 for the VLA market over the next 2 decades? As with all forecasts for the number of any particular size of airliner that wil be required in the next ten or twenty years, it was way off the mark. Right now the forecast for the 100 seat NB airliner market seems ridiculous given the very small numbers of new airliners being ordered in that segment. Id say the same is true for the VLA market. As we have seen orders for the A380 and the 748 have not materialized in numbers required for two side by side products that fill a very niche segment of the airliner market. The A380 beat the 748 to market by YEARS and thus has cemented it as the choice for that size aircraft. Im not saying anything about which one of these aircraft are better, it just doesnt matter. The 748 was probably too late to the game, we will see how it plays out. At this point in time the sweet spot is with the 737 and A320 segment and the 777/787/A350 segment and not much above or below that.
DoubleDelta From United States of America, joined Jul 2012, 44 posts, RR: 0
Reply 8, posted (1 year 10 months 3 weeks 6 days 13 hours ago) and read 34796 times:
Quoting anstar (Reply 4): Well there has been more for the A380 than the 748..... How many 748 frames are ordered vs the 380??
You can try to spin "orders" and "popularity" anyway you want, in an attempt to boost your argument for either side. At the end of the day, NEITHER of the current VLA's are selling well.
The A380 has been on-sale for over a decade, yet it has only secured a dismal 260 orders, give or take. That's nothing to gloat about any way you slice it. And of those 260+/- orders, the VAST majority of those orders have been from ONE eccentric airline, which amounts to a whopping 44% of all orders... nearly half.
The 747-8 family, has only been on offer since 2005... closer to 2006. Since then it has only secured a disappointing 106 orders, the overwhelming majority for the freighter model. Most of any potential 747-8i customers were already committed to the A380. Not many will be able to justify both the A380 and 748i, as LH and KE will be doing. That's just the reality. There isn't enough room in the market for both. Even if there was a direct Boeing equivalent for the A380, it would still be like the situation that Douglas and Lochkeed faced with the DC-10 and L-1011. There was only room for one, and only one aircraft won out by a large margin.
Northwest Airlines — my very first flight aboard a Boeing 727-251ADV.
WarpSpeed From United States of America, joined Feb 2010, 591 posts, RR: 3
Reply 9, posted (1 year 10 months 3 weeks 6 days 13 hours ago) and read 34749 times:
Boeing Sr. Management noted on today's earnings call that it will likely secure additional 747-8F & I orders/commitments before year-end. With that said, the F & I variants were mentioned in the same breath, so consider the comment well hedged. The freighter model seems to have the most potential being the sole player in the VLA freighter market at present. It is difficult to foresee a broad business case for the -8i with super efficient 400+ passenger 777-9X looming on the horizon. Then again, even if we are counting down to "game over," markets are dynamic and the 747-8i could earn some "extended play."
flightsimer From United States of America, joined Aug 2009, 556 posts, RR: 1
Reply 10, posted (1 year 10 months 3 weeks 6 days 13 hours ago) and read 34656 times:
257 firm for the A380 (not including the 5 from kingfisher which are 99% not going to be delivered).
111 firm for the 747-8 with another 15-25 still pending government approval.
So right now the A380 is at about 2:1. However, Airbus had a nearly six year head start in launch time over the 747-8 (early 2000 vs Nov. 2005).
Since the time of the 747-8 launch the net orders have favored the 747-8, but overall orders are at a nearly 3:2 towards the A380. Once transaero firms their four along with the 15 from Hong Kong/Hainan, both will be near a 1:1 split.
A380 144 sold, 39 canceled, net 105
747-8 111 net
Also, we are still waiting on quite a few carriers to order still, which could possibly go 747 over the A380. So It's not quite over yet for the -8I, but it is unfortunately inching closer and closer to that point. At least the -8F should be able to continue for a while yet.
Probably, but the freighters will soldier on well enough until Boeing comes out with a replacement. If somebody wants a 747-8I they can get one, and if they don't Boeing won't be in too much trouble.
Quoting DoubleDelta (Reply 8): You can try to spin "orders" and "popularity" anyway you want, in an attempt to boost your argument for either side. At the end of the day, NEITHER of the current VLA's are selling well.
It's a naturally smaller market. That's like blasting Lamborghini for selling fewer cars than Toyota.
The argument isn't really that Boeing should have built an all new plane, it's that they should have done something else entirely and left the 77W as the largest plane in their lineup.
Why do Aerospace Engineering students have to turn things in on time?
DoubleDelta From United States of America, joined Jul 2012, 44 posts, RR: 0
Reply 13, posted (1 year 10 months 3 weeks 6 days 13 hours ago) and read 34427 times:
Quoting BMI727 (Reply 11): The argument isn't really that Boeing should have built an all new plane, it's that they should have done something else entirely and left the 77W as the largest plane in their lineup.
Respectfully, I have not really seen many people on A.net present that argument. But, I must ask, what exactly should have Boeing built? The Sonic Cruiser? No one wanted it and the 787 was born from that. The 77W was still practically brand new at the time the 747-8 was launched, so looking past the 77W wasn't even an option. A replacement 737 wasn't in the cards for a multitude of reasons... mainly due to it selling so well, and there not being an advancement in engine technology to allow for a new narrowbody.
Northwest Airlines — my very first flight aboard a Boeing 727-251ADV.
cosmofly From United States of America, joined May 2009, 649 posts, RR: 0
Reply 15, posted (1 year 10 months 3 weeks 6 days 13 hours ago) and read 34120 times:
Quoting flightsimer (Reply 10): 257 firm for the A380 (not including the 5 from kingfisher which are 99% not going to be delivered).
111 firm for the 747-8 with another 15-25 still pending government approval.
If you take away the freighters and the VIPs, the order ratio is 256 : 32 .
Even for China and Korea orders, it may be tied to the fact that they both want 747-8 AF1s.
Quoting Stitch (Reply 3): The VLA RFP between the 747-8 and A380-800 at BA was a "winner take all" one.
That was before 777-9X talk and no one expected A380s to replace all 747s.
skipness1E From United Kingdom, joined Aug 2007, 3251 posts, RR: 1
Reply 16, posted (1 year 10 months 3 weeks 6 days 12 hours ago) and read 33495 times:
Quoting kanban (Reply 5): Where I think this will get interesting is when all those first 50 A380's
That's a long time away, Boeing needs to build B747-8s today.
Quoting DoubleDelta (Reply 8): , the VAST majority of those orders have been from ONE eccentric airline, which amounts to a whopping 44% of all orders... nearly half.
Oh come on, "eccentric airline"? Are you serious? Have you been to Dubai? That's just condescending nonsense.
The A380 isn't going to do massively well but the B747-8i is going nowhere. It's the A340NG of the B747 range. OK, that's a shame but that's the sad reality. No one wants a four engined airliner if they can possibly avoid it.
ER757 From Cayman Islands, joined May 2005, 2523 posts, RR: 7
Reply 17, posted (1 year 10 months 3 weeks 6 days 12 hours ago) and read 33496 times:
Quoting DoubleDelta (Reply 8): the VAST majority of those orders have been from ONE eccentric airline, which amounts to a whopping 44% of all orders... nearly half.
And most of Boeing's 748-i order book is from one airline. In both cases, it warrants a "so what?" If said airlines take delivery and pay for them, why should either OEM care bout what percentage of the order book that airline represents? A sale is a sale, the check gets deposited and the money's in the bank. Doesn't matter whose name is on the check.
To answer the OP's question - I don't think it's game over as Boeing never intended to sell shedloads of the 748 (more than they have to be sure, but not in the numbers previous versions sold). I think there are a handful of orders left out there, although most airlines have gone (or will go) up to the A380 or down to the 77W or 351. The 747 occupies a pretty small niche, but it's there if an airline wants it.
yyz717 From Canada, joined Sep 2001, 16248 posts, RR: 56
Reply 18, posted (1 year 10 months 3 weeks 6 days 12 hours ago) and read 33174 times:
Given that a large number of 744's are still in service, it stands to reason that both the 388 and 748 will gain orders as the 744 fleets are wound down (as will the 77W and 359). It may never be a flood, but likely more than a trickle.
Panam, TWA, Ansett, Eastern.......AC next? Might be good for Canada.
2175301 From United States of America, joined May 2007, 1069 posts, RR: 0
Reply 22, posted (1 year 10 months 3 weeks 6 days 12 hours ago) and read 32716 times:
I would not write off the 8I yet; and I believe it will get a few more orders in the next couple of years. But the 8F will get a steady supply of orders likely for decades.
One card not yet played in this game that could swing a lot of people towards the 8I instead of the A380 is the potential length of time to do a D check on an A380. A lot of the current production time for an A380 is due to outfitting - the vast majority of which has to be removed and reinstalled during a D check. There has been speculation about the potential D check length on the A380 production thread. Will an A380 D check take 2 months - or 6 or more months? The answer is unknown at this point. How it turns out will affect the future of A380 sales one way or the other. The 8I could benefit substantially if an A380 D check is on the long end of the possible answers.
bluesky73 From UK - England, joined Oct 2012, 322 posts, RR: 0
Reply 23, posted (1 year 10 months 3 weeks 6 days 12 hours ago) and read 32650 times:
Sadly price of oil, high running costs and profit is finishing off four engined passenger aircraft and in next 10 years they will join the history books along with concorde and triple holers.
As much as the new A35X, 77X Cseries etc are exciting to us lovers of airliners it is a still a shame the next generation are becoming various sized twin engined jets. Even A32X are getting winglets, sorry sharklets.
Fortunately freighters will keep variety going for while yet.
I hope some airlines order the 748i purely from a selfish point of view
SSTeve From United States of America, joined Dec 2011, 706 posts, RR: 1
Reply 24, posted (1 year 10 months 3 weeks 6 days 11 hours ago) and read 32359 times:
Quoting bluesky73 (Reply 23): Sadly price of oil, high running costs and profit is finishing off four engined passenger aircraft and in next 10 years they will join the history books along with concorde and triple holers.
How can you say that when the cost per seat mile advantage of these 4-engine jets grows with higher fuel prices? The only thing that's been definitively killed are large fleets of 50-seat jets, not 500.
: Every few weeks someone posts derogatory comments about EK, meanwhile they continue to take delivery of their orders, operate them and fill them. Acc
: Nice and vague and pretty much the same degree of vagueness in fleet planning announcements that have periodically emanated from BA since they placed
: Risk management. Boeing feared too much exposure to AA and ended up losing some of the 737 order to Airbus and yet folks at Boeing aren't really too
: I think we may see add-on orders for the 748i from LH and KE in small numbers. In any event, I am sure the 748F will sell quite well.
: IIRC they have said this almost every year since the program started!
: Say what?? I'm sure you meant 'outsold the freighter model'. Yes, and what a waste of time THAT was! 'Boring' is too kind a word.
: The topic is the 8i. It's 'game over'. The number sold is so small it means that it is hot a viable product line for people to buy into. The A380 is a
: Do you think the 748 as the next AF1 is pretty much a given? Or will another Boeing be given consideration?
: It's pretty much a given and when it happens it's worth 50 to 75 a/c sales in public relations. The product line extends back to RA001.... and includ
: We'll be at 32 tomorrow when TK's order posts.
: That wouldn't be my logic. My logic is the sales for the 8i are low, the order queue is short, the number in service is small, the critical mass requ
: How many 747-400F last built units and 747-8F are owneed by Boeing at the moment? It seems like the last 747F that were built were white tails and in
: Your point is a moot one. Unlike aircraft such as the A345/A346 or A380, the 748 isn't one aircraft with one role. Even if Boeing never sells another
: That's pretty debatable. There's a large enough fleet and more than enough incentive for Boeing to support the product. If I had an issue, it'd more
: Refer to the topic, is it game over for the 8i.
: The two last build 747-400ERFs were white tails but one has now been placed with Kalitta Air in the United States; the other remains stored AFAIK. Th
: That could very well happen, but Boeing is giving the 748i a hard time themselves by offering a high performing 77W and having the 777X lurking aroun
: Listen folks, the Boeing 747 no matter what model airlines still fly today, has made a tremendous debut in the history of commercial aviation since 19
: Uhm ... that would be .... right now .... going on for several years. The B747-400 is being replaced by B777-300ER's and A380's (and actually B747-8i
: That may all be true. But like other have said, no one wants a four engined aircraft anymore (Unless it can carry as many people as the A380 can).
: One of the reasons Airbus launched the A380, is that without it Boeing (with the 744) had a monopoly on the VLA market, and hence could make large pro
: .....and hot.....really really hot. wow.....6+ months for a D check....thats a long costly visit. this. 747-8 will be mostly the F with some small or
: Not building a new plane but building a better 747. The CASM difference between the 747-8i and the 77W is too small, why take a 4-engine jet if the o
: That's not how Boeing initially pitched it - they expected 60% pax 747-8 vs. 40% freighters and claimed the 747-8i was going to be so much more effic
: I think it is sad that has decided against the 747-8I and for the 777W. TK was one of the orders I hoped for
: Boeing apparently knocked back offers for the 747-8i because they were too low. So there are airlines interested in the 747-8i, but Boeing isn't prep
: British Airways have previously stated that they're only interested in one VLA for their future requirements, so I'm afraid there will come a time whe
: You conveniently combine 747-8F and 747-8i sales against A380 sales, despite the fact that there currently is no A380F on offer. A380F itself is a di
: He just made that figure up. It is an interesting question, but 6+ months for a D check is not the answer.
: Many 744's are collecting their pensions, just look at Japan. Singapore's 744 fleet, gone; Cathay's some gone other soon to be gone. Air Canada's lon
: What is all this jazz on this thread? The 747-8 is doing fine. Boing will make a net on it... and that was all that was expected. Granted, orders are
: I think it is a matter of time until more airlines are interested in the 747-8. I'm sure there have been other aircraft models that have also had a sl
: I hope the B748i will score some more orders, but chances imho are not the best to put it mildly. Especially with the biggest competitor coming from B
: We all are talking about viability of the 747-8i. So, as long as Boeing is building the 747-8F, the 747-8i is viable. That is why the freighter comes
: I think that comparing order numbers of A vs B in the VLA segment is a bit not relevant considering the small numbers ordered of each. The real questi
: As will I. Excellent point on the economics of flying.
: Unlike the 747-400, 747-8 is cargo first pax second. Luckily for Boeing, A380F is essentially cancelled so 747-8F would hold the crown for cargo hauli
: That has got to be the most ridiculous excuse I have ever heard for why Boeing lost the AA NB order to Airbus.
: Who offered the 748i??? Anyway it means that the value these customers would have gotten, was not on par with the price they'd had paid.... The 748i
: The two-year delay or so (IIRC) did the -8i substantial damage IMO. Partly the flutter problem, but more the collateral damage incurred when it was "
: You misunderstand... I'll rephrase the AF1 sale is equal to selling 50-75 planes in publicity and visibility benefits alone
: Except it actually was one of the reasons. Note I said "one", as there were many reasons (availability being the big one, IMO). But Airbus was willin
: I've kept away from this thread because it's a dead-end but this argument caught my eye. Perhaps I also misunderstand. You're suggesting that by bein
: Well I guess it's still early days for the 748. I wouldn't be surprised if other pax airlines ordered it, as it is the only other VLA option other tha
: Agree with that. FWIW the A380 is still suffering IMO As per the above, in more ways than one... OTOH, it might be just the impetus needed to bring t
: The two aircraft that currently operate as Air Force One are 20+ years old, basic -200 "steam gauge" models and I would think that sooner rather than
: This could be coming from pure fantasy land, but BA might need a top up order of VLA's. WIth at one point 59 744's, (now 55 I believe) 10 77W's and 12
: That's one possible implication but another is that the work required to bring a 747-8i up to AF1 spec would bring Boeing a lot of money and be worth
: And if they do, it will be more A380-800s. The only 747-8s you will see in BA colors are the freighters operated for them by Global Supply Systems.
: Would this be eccentric because they make lots of profit?
: I agree, but that's a different view of the 747-8 programme. My response was to a post by flightsimer in which he compared order numbers of the 747-8
: The Boeing spec sheets they got must have had a typo in the "number of engines" item then when they bought these: http://www.airliners.net/photo/USA-
: DTWPurserBoy's is admittedly general in nature. The USAF prefers four engines for longer and overwater flights. When the President is on a C-32, C-40,
: I think flying a 20+ year plane, no matter how good the maintenance is, is higher risk than flying a twin. The 747-8i would look great as AF1
: Sad! But, BA has stated that they intend to keep flying the 744's for quite some time, so happy about that! Are they still taking 748-F's? Sorry, but
: A ultra-lomg-range model of the A380-800 with a center fuel tank to carry an additional 46,000 liters of fuel (good for about another 1000nm). I tend
: My (our) contention is that once a twin can fly the kangaroo route, there will be more airlines who will be willing to compete on that route thus dil
: That is Air Force 2 C32A... Not Air Force 1 VC-25A... That one's primarily NOT used for POTUS (especially his long-haul flights) and is used for the
: Would the 748i have done better if the A380 wasnt around?
: As part of the regulations and instructions covering contracts and purchases, the USAF can NOT primarily go with only ONE bidder. They must send out
: Sadly, I don't believe it would be around if it weren't for the A380. As I mentioned it a little bit ago, Boeing (very reluctantly) entered the VLA m
: The 777-200LR can do LHR-SYD now, but it is going to be payload-limited to do it. And frankly, so would any twin as I don't really see a twin heavier
: So it would have been 777 and A340 variants only as big birds, pathetic.
: No: The 747-400 would still have been produced. Going back to the original question is the 747-8i game over. It is way to early to tell as I alluded
: I doubt seriously that Boeing spent all that money developing the 747-8's to close up shop on them this soon in the game. They knew up front their bes
: I assumed as much - sorry, I should have added one of these fellas to my comment:
: The 747 freighter, and conversions transport half of all air freight IIRC, I think you have to consider all the 400s that can be converted as competi
: The reality so far in this current period of contracting air cargo demand is that the fuel efficiency of the 747-8F (even being overweight and with a
: Why is a D-check in an A380 so much more work than a 748i? Do you know for sure that it will be? Don't airlines have to specify exactly what gets don
: Fortunately EPA001 isn't one of them ... If it ever happens, an A388R would almost certainly boast some 30t MTOW hike over the A388 to offset the phe
: one more time ... every time an AF1 is seen where ever, the Boeing name is associated with it... in public relations that's great. airlines could buy
: If you fill the standard tanks, you get 254t. WV006 (573t) would give up 50t of payload to fill them. A full fuel load on an A380-800R would approach
: Thanks a lot for the clarification. That sounds like a variation of the "frequency over capacity" theme. I still don't buy into it, I have to admit.
: If you know what type of plane it is anyway - in which case you'll associate the Boeing name with the few dozen 747-400 at FRA, LHR or JFK as well. A
: Yes, as I mentioned, they are required to go to multiple contractors...however... they want the highest quality product and if you go to far out on s
: Publicity where? The US carriers don't buy many VLA these days. The rest of the world doesn't really care about AF1.
: I doubt that AF1 ever carries tonnes of cargo, certainly never enough to offset the performance of a twin compared to a 4 engined beast. There has nev
: Somewhat O/T I know, but that describes a plane capable of carring its Max Structural Payload about 9 500nm - 2 500nm further than the 772LR's MSP. I
: Which shows the growth potential of the A380 which I am certain we will see it one day. But at the end of this decade, or even at the start of the ne
: I just flew into BKK on a UA 744 upperdeck C class. I'll miss it when/if it is gone, it's my favorite ride. It's like a nice private aircraft up ther
: The 625t limit is with a braking unit on all 20 wheels (compared to the current 16 wheels). The 16-brake RTO was performed at 575t TOW, which is the
: No I wasn't referring to frequency, as it does not apply to the ultra long route. I was thinking more in the line of a smaller airline can now compet
: Ah, thanks for the additional information. I thought they had done that 625 tons test with the standard brakes configuration. But they could still in
: More reversers doesn't get you any credit, you have to do the maximum braking test without them anyway. It actually makes it worse by increasing the
: Well the 777 is still widebody, so it wouldn't be bad replacing the aging 747-400, but even the Boeing 747-400 I believe will still fly for several a
: Plenty of emotion in that post, but almost no-ones buying 8i. If you want a CASM killer, buy the A380.[Edited 2012-10-27 00:46:20]
: Havent read every topic in this thread, but here we go: VS and 748i ...i can be wrong, what do you think? Cheers
: Sorry if this has been said before - I have not read ALL the 100+ preceding posts. I could see that where the 748F best meets an airline's needs but t
: Recent topic here, Virgin getting out of the four engine business.
: Although they haven't turned their backs on their A380 order. Yet. Rgds
: If the F model has some life the 8i can be produced as needed going forward. And I see no other freighter coming in the near future that can do anythi
: On the contrary, I think 262 orders is quite an achievement. Additionally - if we were to use the 747 as a benchmark which a decade after its initial
: I think so too. And the B747 was really without competition for a very long time, though it was offered in a smaller market then we see today. But th
: Airlines have learned the downside with a huge frame like the A380, in this fast moving global credit economy you go from profit and 500+ filled seats
: There at least 3 or 4 Asian carriers still open to the 748i. And thought UA has indicated the A350 will replace the 744, market changes especially in
120 United Airline
: At first Airbus expected the A380 to replace the B 747 on a 1 to 1 basis from what I heard. Hope the A380 will sell like hot cakes over time. I am sur
: You do? Funny. In the depths of the GFC, it was A380 load factors that held up the best... Fortunately no-one knows, as they've never been parked up.
: stock holders and prospective stockholders. That's why Boeing has a big PR Department. Stockholders need constant reassurance that they bought into a
123 United Airline
: I guess BA will order more A380s eventually in addition to the option/firm orders they made