AWACSooner From United States of America, joined Jan 2008, 1418 posts, RR: 1 Reply 1, posted (6 months 3 weeks 4 days 20 hours ago) and read 13555 times:
Good luck with this one...they've really jumped into bed with AA on the codesharing deals and are the newest member into OW...I don't know how feasible (not to mention how much it might hit them in the wallet) it will be for them to simply jump ship over to Skyteam.
Independence76 From United States of America, joined Jul 2007, 165 posts, RR: 0 Reply 2, posted (6 months 3 weeks 4 days 19 hours ago) and read 13419 times:
Not going to happen.
BER opens next year and the full potential of the airport has yet to be seen. I don't think AB would be so quick to change alliances before they could see what Oneworld would offer them.
However, in the midst of speculation, say AB were to leave, who else would Oneworld attempt to court in central Europe to fill the gap?
"In general, pride is at the bottom of all great mistakes." - John Ruskin
Carfield From United States of America, joined Dec 2003, 1727 posts, RR: 9 Reply 5, posted (6 months 3 weeks 4 days 19 hours ago) and read 13062 times:
If I recall correctly, all these major alliances have specific clauses that will impose a heavy penalty if these airlines decide to bail out all the sudden, or within a period of time. Given how new AB is to OW, I doubt it will jump ship now, unless AF is willing to pay the penalty for the switch.
American 767 From United States of America, joined May 1999, 3321 posts, RR: 14 Reply 6, posted (6 months 3 weeks 4 days 19 hours ago) and read 13030 times:
Quoting Independence76 (Reply 2): However, in the midst of speculation, say AB were to leave, who else would Oneworld attempt to court in central Europe to fill the gap?
This question would not be asked if Malev was still in business.
Yes, I agree. AB should stay in One World. Sky Team would have no big advantage to have them. For Central and Eastern Europe, Sky Team has CSA and Tarom already. And Star has LOT, Austrian and Turkish.
Ben Soriano
"Aimer jusqu'a l'impossible, c'est possible". Tina Arena.
neveragain From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR: Reply 7, posted (6 months 3 weeks 4 days 19 hours ago) and read 12875 times:
Quoting Carfield (Reply 5): Given how new AB is to OW, I doubt it will jump ship now, unless AF is willing to pay the penalty for the switch.
And if AF were making the request (as is claimed in this article), what makes you think they wouldn't be happy to? EY isn't happy with the alliance decision, either.
LAXintl From United States of America, joined May 2000, 22054 posts, RR: 51 Reply 8, posted (6 months 3 weeks 4 days 19 hours ago) and read 12855 times:
Air Berlin is wanted as Germany is the largest travel market in Europe outside the UK.
Having AB in an alliance, gives that group a home footing in the large German market. Something quite valuable to both OW and Skyteam.
From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
aloges From Germany, joined Jan 2006, 8357 posts, RR: 47 Reply 9, posted (6 months 3 weeks 4 days 18 hours ago) and read 12633 times:
Quoting American 767 (Reply 6): Sky Team would have no big advantage to have them. For Central and Eastern Europe, Sky Team has CSA and Tarom already.
If you take one look at AB's destinations in Easter Europe, you will notice immediately that they are a small player in that market. Sky Team would gain the second largest German airline whose passenger numbers dwarf CSA and TAROM put together and the overlap wouldn't be as bad as you seem to expect.
Walk together, talk together all ye peoples of the earth. Then, and only then, shall ye have peace.
LJ From Netherlands, joined Nov 1999, 4149 posts, RR: 1 Reply 10, posted (6 months 3 weeks 4 days 18 hours ago) and read 12622 times:
Quoting Independence76 (Reply 2): BER opens next year and the full potential of the airport has yet to be seen. I don't think AB would be so quick to change alliances before they could see what Oneworld would offer them.
One of the owners of AB (EY) doesn't have any interest in AB staying in Oneworld either (more so when one of its competitors will join in the future).
BTW Oneworld seems to be the only alliance where all big 3 Miidle Eastern airlines are in a way affiliated to. QR, because it will join oneworld, Ek, beacuse it has signed a joint venture with QF and EY because they own a stake in AB and also finance this airline to keep it running.
Quoting American 767 (Reply 6):
Yes, I agree. AB should stay in One World. Sky Team would have no big advantage to have them. For Central and Eastern Europe, Sky Team has CSA and Tarom already. And Star has LOT, Austrian and Turkish.
The same advantage of having AB in oneworld. In the end, Skyteam would get German domestic flights and as such being able to compete with Star for German corporate contracts. Moreover, it would mean it can compete with Star much better than they can do now as they also would get a mini hub in VIE.
Quoting AWACSooner (Reply 1): Good luck with this one...they've really jumped into bed with AA on the codesharing deals and are the newest member into OW..
Doesn't say anything. They've also signed an extensive codeshare agreement with AF/KL and one of the owners of Ab has signed codeshare agreements with AF, KL and GA. However, it would be sad for DUS as I doubt AA will start their flight to DUS if AB were to leave oneworld.
panamair From United States of America, joined Oct 2001, 4584 posts, RR: 26 Reply 12, posted (6 months 3 weeks 4 days 18 hours ago) and read 12456 times:
Quoting Independence76 (Reply 2): BER opens next year and the full potential of the airport has yet to be seen.
A brand spanking new large airport is not going to change Berlin into a hugely desirable market; the problem with Berlin has been (and will be for the foreseeable future) its lack of a decent premium market. Most corporate traffic is focused elsewhere - FRA, DUS, MUC, etc.
Its location also does not make it a good connecting point for most of Europe except for Eastern European markets, most of which are also very poor premium markets. Oneworld is made up of many heavily premium-driven carriers, and few of them have shown any inclination to expand or even fly to Berlin (which is one of AB's chief complaints about its OW partners).
Independence76 From United States of America, joined Jul 2007, 165 posts, RR: 0 Reply 13, posted (6 months 3 weeks 4 days 18 hours ago) and read 12346 times:
Just like Qantas will never enter a joint venture with Emirates.
Or a Big 3 Middle Eastern airline will never join an alliance.
Nope, can't happen.
QF + EK is not AB + AF/KL.
AB has been codesharing with BA for a while now with no issues. Etihad's lack of alliance membership also shows that they're conservative regarding the idea. They're not going to force AB into an alliance just after they just entered another one. There are costly penalties for violating such contracts.
[Edited 2012-10-29 14:29:33]
"In general, pride is at the bottom of all great mistakes." - John Ruskin
kyrone From United States of America, joined Mar 2011, 118 posts, RR: 0 Reply 14, posted (6 months 3 weeks 4 days 18 hours ago) and read 12247 times:
I think AB would definitely suffer on the proposed ORD route should they switch. DL does not have the feed that AA can provide in ORD.
However, it wouldn't be the first time an announced route didnt happen. I'm not aware of AB signing a ground handler yet or getting a ticket counter...
FI642 From Monaco, joined Mar 2005, 1056 posts, RR: 2 Reply 15, posted (6 months 3 weeks 4 days 16 hours ago) and read 11764 times:
OW needs that hub in BER when it opens. They'll do whatever they can to keep Air Berlin in their alliance. LH needs a bit of competition on their home turf.
737MAX, Cool Planes for the Worlds Coolest Airline.
commavia From United States of America, joined Apr 2005, 10193 posts, RR: 62 Reply 16, posted (6 months 3 weeks 4 days 15 hours ago) and read 11513 times:
I have no doubt that the members of oneworld would like for Air Berlin to stay, and Air Berlin does provide some marginal benefit to some particular oneworld members in terms of feed and general German presence - AA, BA/Iberia and Finnair especially. Nonetheless, I doubt oneworld would put up a massive fight to keep Air Berlin - certainly nothing on the order of what happened 2 1/2 years ago with JAL. JAL was an absolutely critical, strategically crucial member of the alliance and especially for some other members (especially AA) - thus we witnessed a massive and expensive retention campaign. I don't think any member of the alliance would be nearly as invested in keeping Air Berlin in if it really wanted to leave.
LAXintl From United States of America, joined May 2000, 22054 posts, RR: 51 Reply 17, posted (6 months 3 weeks 4 days 14 hours ago) and read 10894 times:
Quoting LJ (Reply 10): One of the owners of AB (EY) doesn't have any interest in AB staying in Oneworld either (more so when one of its competitors will join in the future).
. EY has explicitly stated they wish for AB to get closer to AF/KL. Doing this while member of a competing alliance will only make any partnership less workable.
Quoting panamair (Reply 12): A brand spanking new large airport is not going to change Berlin into a hugely desirable market; the problem with Berlin has been (and will be for the foreseeable future) its lack of a decent premium market. Most corporate traffic is focused elsewhere - FRA, DUS, MUC, etc.
Its location also does not make it a good connecting point for most of Europe except for Eastern European markets, most of which are also very poor premium markets. Oneworld is made up of many heavily premium-driven carriers, and few of them have shown any inclination to expand or even fly to Berlin (which is one of AB's chief complaints about its OW partners).
I have long had doubts about the viability of a hub in Berlin due to the realities it faces.
As you state geography, demographics, and economics all work against BER as much of a Europe continental hub.
Quoting FI642 (Reply 15): OW needs that hub in BER when it opens. They'll do whatever they can to keep Air Berlin in their alliance.
Yes OW might wish to have a continental Europe hub, but frankly I don't think BER was really the answer nor offering much in the grand scale to the alliance.
I think OW can go back to the drawing board and come up with a better plan for central Europe.
Quoting FI642 (Reply 15): LH needs a bit of competition on their home turf.
Sure LH could see some competition, but I don't think it matters much if its OW of ST.
Quoting commavia (Reply 16): I don't think any member of the alliance would be nearly as invested in keeping Air Berlin in if it really wanted to leave.
Only one I can see putting up a bit of a fight is British Airways which sponsored AB.
BA wanted continental partner after its own failed efforts of running airlines in France and Germany, so linking up with a carrier in a huge market like Germany is beneficial for BA.
But, yes at the end, I agree, I cant see a major battle to hang onto AB. I'm not even sure most OW members even know what to make of AB with its confused product offering.
From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
AA767LOVER From Hong Kong, joined Aug 2007, 551 posts, RR: 0 Reply 18, posted (6 months 3 weeks 4 days 13 hours ago) and read 10393 times:
Simply put, if AF wants to keep AB in bed for a hot and steamy liaison, they better be willing to pay the price to help sponsor them over to Skyteam. Otherwise, it's just a one night stand with empty promises. AF wants AB? Great, then they should fork out the cash. To join ANY alliance, and leave another, there are "change penalties" just like they fine us for "refund/redeposit" or "change fees". It's not so easy to say, ditch OW and come over. AB needs to fork out money on its own to leave OW. I have nothing against Skyteam and I think the carriers involved are of high quality, but not as high as OW. Delta is the only exception. I find Delta to be the best and strongest Skyteam carrier - far better quality than AA in many respects - and more choices. Though I really hate the Skymiles policy of $150 for ANY changes - date change or whatever. Even AA and UA don't charge for date changes, only for change of carrier or change of routing. Other than that, Delta is very superior product.
J.I. Tsui, American Advantage Member, United Mileage Plus (Premier)
RyanairGuru From Australia, joined Oct 2006, 2525 posts, RR: 2 Reply 19, posted (6 months 3 weeks 4 days 13 hours ago) and read 10346 times:
Quoting AA767LOVER (Reply 18): I find Delta to be the best and strongest Skyteam carrier - far better quality than AA in many respects - and more choices
Being the only SkyTeam carrier I've flown I can't say if they're the best in that alliance. They are, however, IMHO far superior to AA, who I consider to be the weak link in what is otherwise a fairly premium collection of airlines.
Yes, I strongly agree with you - and don't forget the many hundreds and thousands of people who have faced cancellations because of AA. I keep my title AA767LOVER because I love the classic -200's. Chubby, cute and short!
Imagine if the rumor ever became true that US really wanted to pursue AA, that's two mediocre airlines right there.
I would prefer Delta since they have a lot of commonalities. Delta is in a good position, but needs to be much stronger to buy able to buy out AA. Hey in a case like that, which name would they choose? Delta or American?
Continental was better than Northwest when they were under Skyteam, but not better than Delta. I appreciated Delta's service overall.
J.I. Tsui, American Advantage Member, United Mileage Plus (Premier)
lightsaber From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 10687 posts, RR: 100 Reply 21, posted (6 months 3 weeks 4 days 12 hours ago) and read 9997 times:
Interesting twist.
Quoting Independence76 (Reply 2): BER opens next year and the full potential of the airport has yet to be seen. I don't think AB would be so quick to change alliances before they could see what Oneworld would offer them.
All that is required is that AB be in an alliance when BER (finally) opens. Keep the code share with AA... Otherwise, why not shop for the best deal?
Quoting LAXintl (Reply 17): EY has explicitly stated they wish for AB to get closer to AF/KL.
And the golden rule speaks.... This implies EY is leaning towards Skyteam. It would strengthen the alliance to add both AB and EY tremendously...
IMHO a DL/AB/EY partnership would be impressive. (We already have AF/AB). Would KL/AB add much? (Note: I'm asking a serious question. Does AB add much to KL's network?)
neveragain From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR: Reply 23, posted (6 months 3 weeks 4 days 9 hours ago) and read 8990 times:
Quoting Independence76 (Reply 13): They're not going to force AB into an alliance just after they just entered another one. There are costly penalties for violating such contracts.
OK, that's the answer, then.
Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 11):
Perhaps it depends on how easy it would be to switch alliances at this point.
I think you've got it. I certainly don't know the pricetag or other implications, but I'd never claim that AB leaving oneworld would never happen.
Quoting commavia (Reply 16):
I have no doubt that the members of oneworld would like for Air Berlin to stay, and Air Berlin does provide some marginal benefit to some particular oneworld members in terms of feed and general German presence - AA, BA/Iberia and Finnair especially. Nonetheless, I doubt oneworld would put up a massive fight to keep Air Berlin - certainly nothing on the order of what happened 2 1/2 years ago with JAL. JAL was an absolutely critical, strategically crucial member of the alliance and especially for some other members (especially AA) - thus we witnessed a massive and expensive retention campaign. I don't think any member of the alliance would be nearly as invested in keeping Air Berlin in if it really wanted to leave.
Commavia, you've got to be the most inoffensive poster on this board, which is a laudable accomplishment. I'm not sure of anyone else who "covers their bases" like you do. The problem is, I'm often not sure what you really believe (but I've got a pretty good guess). "Sure, oneworld would like to keep AB, but it's okay if they lose them, because it's not like it's JAL, which was really important (good job oneworld!!). And, BTW, if they left, they didn't add anything other than at the margins. So it's OK. But it'd also be OK if they stayed. Either way, it's fine. And it certainly won't affect AA, nevermind they announced a route from ORD-DUS."
(BTW, you use the word "massive" way too much (as many do). When one overuses words, they lose their meaning, although I'm waiting for the first time I can use "retention campaign.")
PanHAM From Germany, joined May 2005, 7771 posts, RR: 26 Reply 24, posted (6 months 3 weeks 4 days 8 hours ago) and read 8740 times:
AB invested some 60 to 100 million € in joining OW.
Does AFKL or EY compensate them for that money?
Where's the beef for AB in abandoning OW and becoming a feeder carrier for EY / AFKL instead?
We have discussed that before but I still do not see any advantage for AB in sky team.
They have to struggle with the inability of the Berlin and Brandenburg governmenmts to get the new airport terminal at SXF open and rename the place BER, which is hurting AB badly. Opening of BER could be in 2014 or even later, we willknow that in November.
Looks like AB applied to a loan at the wrong Gulf adress. But then, geeting in bed with QR and Al Baker, is something which may even be less desirable, looking at what happens in Luxemburg.
Buten und binnen, wagen un winnen
25 Bill142: Air Berlins safety record seems to good for them to be an ideal Skyteam candidate.
26 commavia: You seem to have gotten my point. JAL was critical to the alliance, so the alliance fought hard to keep them. Air Berlin is not critical to the allia
27 vfw614: This discussion mostly misses the point that it is no longer airberlin that is calling the shots, but Etihad as airberlin's part-owner and financer. E
28 PanHAM: AB is not even critical for Skyteam, they may serve a purpose for EY opening up some gateways and absorbing/feeding Indian Sub Continent / Far East an
29 ushermittwoch: Personally, I'd love to see AB move over to Skyteam, purely for selfish reasons.
30 CARST: EY hold 29,21 percent of the AB shares. While this might be a large number, the AB management also works for the other shareholders, which are owning
31 LAXintl: I very seriously doubt its was more than even 1/10th of this. Frankly if it was that big, there would be a nice long explanation in the AB annual rep
32 joost: They might have no issues with BA, but there is hardly any cooperation either. There is a BA-code on a handful of domestic AB flights, but that's abo
33 joost: But EY is a party with liquidity available. Irrespective whether the money comes from airline revenues or other sources, they have it. And could purs
37 Plane Holland: EK to me seems fit for Star Alliance.
38 Delimit: EK has just about zero use for an alliance. It just needs feeder arrangements in some of the larger markets. QR and EY need them because they are dwar
39 joost: Indeed. EK doesn't need to feed their hub, but only the spokes. They can make use of partners to feed their flights far away from DXB (like their par
40 LJ: Which will diminsh even further when IB leaves Berlin in January.
41 lightsaber: It wouldn't be that big of a deal for AB to leave OW. AB needs an alliance when BER opens to help feed. OW isn't exactly helping. With EY owning a big
42 r2rho: That pretty much sums up OW's attitude towards its members, with the exception of JL, and the AA-BA-IB core. They don't seem to care much who comes a
43 avek00: There's no set forumla for alliance exit fees. It's a point that is negotiable at ANY time, and subject to any conditions mutually agreed to by the p
44 lightsaber: *A (Mainly LH, but also TK, TI, and SQ) would love to kill off EK. That is one alliance I would bet more than a beer that EK will never join. Lightsa
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. EY has explicitly stated they wish for AB to get closer to AF/KL. Doing this while member of a competing alliance will only make any partnership less workable.
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