Sponsor Message:
Civil Aviation Forum
My Starred Topics | Profile | New Topic | Forum Index | Help | Search 
Virgin Australia To YVR?  
User currently offlineCPA62 From Canada, joined Jan 2012, 52 posts, RR: 0
Posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 18 hours ago) and read 7126 times:

Just wondering if YVR is on Virgin Australia's radar? Vancouver to South Pacific flights appear to be doing very well and from what i understand the yields are good. With Air Canada operating additional flights during the winter peak season and
NZ increasing flights to Auckland. Seems there is room for another, at least seasonal?

24 replies: All unread, jump to last
 
User currently onlineRyanairGuru From Australia, joined Oct 2006, 5383 posts, RR: 4
Reply 1, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 17 hours ago) and read 6943 times:

Possibly in the future VA might launch flights to SFO and YVR (two which have been rumored before) and possibly do something left-field like SEA (especially if they could get AS feed). I think that VA probably have a (slightly) higher chance of growing outside of LAX on the west coast than QF do, but I still think it is a slim chance.

First, they don't have the aircraft to do it and they don't have any more 777s on order. So far they haven't shown much enthusiasm for international expansion right now, so I can't see them ordering more anytime soon. At the time of the rebranding as Virgin Australia I was expecting a larger A330 order to help open routes to markets such as HKG, PVG and NRT - major destinations which cannot be served effectively from the east coast via SIN. That has failed to eventuate. Further, I wondered if they would operate a 737 from CNS (and maybe DRW) to SIN to help fill a hole in SQ's network. CNS never happened and DRW was started by SilkAir.

The other thing to consider is that BNE and MEL to LAX are currently only 3x weekly. I think that their first priority should be to get those to daily, or at least 5x weekly, to better compete against QF for business traffic.

To come full circle, I could possibly see a 772 order from VA, the 77W is simply too big for them. They were blinded by CASM figures, and didn't consider that they would struggle to fill the larger aircraft with decent frequencies. The 772 would be a better size for BNE and MEL to LAX: just the decrease in capacity could justify increasing the flight to 5x weekly, and the increase in frequency might sufficiently stimulate the market to allow them to increase the flight to daily. The 772 would also be a better aircraft for SFO and YVR - I think that a 77W would simply be too big in these markets.

And then comes the question of why order the 777? Given that they aren't growing internationally in the next couple of years, why don't they just order the 787 or A350 and wait until then to start international expansion?

So many questions, and - unfortunately - right now there aren't many answers. I'm not certain that even VAH management are certain what their international strategy is right now (using their own metal, that is), but hopefully they can figure it out soon and that we will see some more growth.



Worked Hard, Flew Right
User currently offlineQFA380 From Australia, joined Jul 2005, 2061 posts, RR: 1
Reply 2, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 6 hours ago) and read 5870 times:

They certainly don't seem to have much international strategy other than getting with everyone else. I think the A350 would be fit perfectly for them in a few years time. One of the biggest problems is the lack of brand recognition that they even fly internationally. I know plenty of people who see them only as a domestic airline, which they practically are.

Maintaining the status quo for now seems like the right plan, more important to secure solid domestic market share in the corporate and government world and ship those customers on partner airlines internationally, then figure out what international routes those customers want and go after them. Having only Abu Dhabi and Los Angeles seems like a waste of time.


User currently offlineSurfandSnow From United States of America, joined Jan 2009, 2862 posts, RR: 30
Reply 3, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 5 hours ago) and read 5561 times:

I would think VA prefers to just serve a single gateway at LAX, and then have VX carry pax beyond LAX - similar to the QF/AA strategy. Although VX got killed on its YYZ routes, I do wonder if they could pull off YVR-SFO/LAX. They seem to be holding their own against AS/B6/UA on the California-Pacific Northwest routes thus far, but of course with YVR there's AC and WS to worry about. I'm sure VA would much rather see VX offer LAX-YVR, with a schedule conducive to Australian connections, than send its own metal all the way to YVR.


Flying in the middle seat of coach is much better than not flying at all!
User currently offlinethegeek From Australia, joined Nov 2007, 2638 posts, RR: 0
Reply 4, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 5 hours ago) and read 5450 times:

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 1):
To come full circle, I could possibly see a 772 order from VA

I can't. The 77E is a has been aircraft. The 77L is a bit more likely but I think they would have a significant fear that they wouldn't find a profitable place to send it, and also be left with an expensive to operate aircraft in the latter half of this decade.

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 1):
why don't they just order the 787 or A350

Perhaps, but before making a multi billion aircraft order they should have a proper business plan.

I was going to say the A350 to avoid confronting QF directly, but that goes against most of their strategy so far.


User currently offlineYVRLTN From Canada, joined Oct 2006, 2447 posts, RR: 0
Reply 5, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 3 hours ago) and read 4789 times:

If another entrant enters the market, I could see it being JQ with 787's first.

Quoting SurfandSnow (Reply 3):
I do wonder if they could pull off YVR-SFO/LAX.

Its been rumored for a long time VX have been looking at YVR, but as you say there is a lot of competition - remember AS too to LAX and even they couldnt make SFO work. A codeshare with WS could work much better for VA if they were interested in Canada.



Follow me on twitter for YVR movements @vernonYVR
User currently offlinemariner From New Zealand, joined Nov 2001, 25080 posts, RR: 85
Reply 6, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 2 hours ago) and read 4328 times:
Support Airliners.net - become a First Class Member!

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 1):
So many questions, and - unfortunately - right now there aren't many answers. I'm not certain that even VAH management are certain what their international strategy is right now (using their own metal, that is), but hopefully they can figure it out soon and that we will see some more growth.

If they do know, they have given out any clues and in terms of long haul international expansion, I'm not holding my breath.

I would have thought that the first priority would be a couple of routes to Asia, rather than routing everything through Singapore, but Mr. Borghetti's suggestion that there are more alliances or code shares may cover that.

mariner



aeternum nauta
User currently offlineQF175 From Portugal, joined Mar 2007, 680 posts, RR: 2
Reply 7, posted (1 year 9 months 2 weeks 6 days 21 hours ago) and read 3068 times:

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 1):

Sorry to nitpick but BNE-LAX is actually 4x weekly (M/W/F/S).

[Edited 2012-11-04 05:59:22 by srbmod]

User currently offlineLufthansa From Christmas Island, joined May 1999, 3207 posts, RR: 10
Reply 8, posted (1 year 9 months 2 weeks 6 days 19 hours ago) and read 2676 times:

Quoting QF175 (Reply 8):
Sorry to nitpick but BNE-LAX is actually 4x weekly (M/W/F/S).

This is still not enough for the J market. It does however work much like BA and VS's flights to LAS.
They can do it but it will be lower yeilding. In this case the want the lower CASM. They won't be able to
charge a revenue premium.


User currently offlinelonghauler From Canada, joined Mar 2004, 4927 posts, RR: 43
Reply 9, posted (1 year 9 months 2 weeks 6 days 14 hours ago) and read 2093 times:

Quoting YVRLTN (Reply 5):
If another entrant enters the market, I could see it being JQ with 787's first.

I remember at a Town Hall meeting a few months ago, someone asked if Australia would be flown by the then proposed Pacific LCC. The answer was that the Australia market seems to be unique, and high yield, and passengers surveyed appeared to be resistant to the "Low Cost" type of travel, in favour of a more "upscale" carrier. For that reason, I would imagine QF would be in the market before JQ.



Never gonna grow up, never gonna slow down .... Barefoot Blue Jean Night
User currently offlinethegeek From Australia, joined Nov 2007, 2638 posts, RR: 0
Reply 10, posted (1 year 9 months 2 weeks 6 days 10 hours ago) and read 1826 times:

Quoting QF175 (Reply 7):
Sorry to nitpick but BNE-LAX is actually 4x weekly (M/W/F/S).

QF are not daily on this route either, only 6x weekly, Tu-Su QF15/16. Better by enough to make a yield difference, but not as good as having a daily flight.


User currently onlineRyanairGuru From Australia, joined Oct 2006, 5383 posts, RR: 4
Reply 11, posted (1 year 9 months 2 weeks 5 days 17 hours ago) and read 1411 times:

Quoting longhauler (Reply 9):
he answer was that the Australia market seems to be unique, and high yield, and passengers surveyed appeared to be resistant to the "Low Cost" type of travel, in favour of a more "upscale" carrier

I think this is true, especially with regards to inbound traffic. Most of the passengers travelling from North America to Australia are generally very wealthy, and would prefer to avoid a "low cost" product for a 14 hour flight.

Quoting thegeek (Reply 10):
not as good as having a daily flight.

On such a long flight 5 is the magic number, having flights most days but then skipping a slow traffic day such as Saturday or Tuesday is acceptable. 3 or 4 flights a week, though, is (psychologically) a massive drop - there is a greater than 50% chance that there won't be a flight the next day.



Worked Hard, Flew Right
User currently offlinewpigott From Canada, joined Oct 2008, 26 posts, RR: 0
Reply 12, posted (1 year 9 months 2 weeks 5 days 15 hours ago) and read 1411 times:

Virgin Australia could go to SFO and be fed by VX, especially since Canadian Competition Bureau blocked 14 routes from being AC/UA joint venture which included SFO-YYC/YVR/YYZ where AC and UA already have at least 87% market share. Though if Virgin Atlantic does join Star as it's been rumored the door for VA/VX codeshares with AC. Has there been any other moves in the idea of a new Virgin brand airline out of YVR?

User currently offlineanstar From United Kingdom, joined Nov 2003, 5188 posts, RR: 6
Reply 13, posted (1 year 9 months 2 weeks 5 days 15 hours ago) and read 1413 times:

Quoting wpigott (Reply 12):
Has there been any other moves in the idea of a new Virgin brand airline out of YVR?

It was publically canned by AC last week.


User currently offlineqf002 From Australia, joined Jul 2011, 2963 posts, RR: 2
Reply 14, posted (1 year 9 months 2 weeks 5 days 10 hours ago) and read 1413 times:

Doesn't make sense to me. The market is wrong, VA's equipment is wrong, and there are far more profitable/suitable cities they could fly to before YVR. SFO makes the most sense in North America, but I think they'd rather use capacity to start flying to Asia...

Quoting longhauler (Reply 9):
passengers surveyed appeared to be resistant to the "Low Cost" type of travel, in favour of a more "upscale" carrier. For that reason, I would imagine QF would be in the market before JQ.

For the QF Group, it would either be JQ or nothing. QF cannot make a route like YVR profitable, because it lacks the level of corporate traffic that they need to make money. I actually think JQ would be quite successful into YVR with a seasonal flight that runs November-February. AC charges through the nose for these flights at this time of year, and I think there are probably quite a few people (specifically families) who would love to travel to Canada in the winter but simply cannot afford it.


User currently onlineRyanairGuru From Australia, joined Oct 2006, 5383 posts, RR: 4
Reply 15, posted (1 year 9 months 2 weeks 5 days 10 hours ago) and read 1415 times:

Quoting qf002 (Reply 14):
AC charges through the nose for these flights at this time of year, and I think there are probably quite a few people (specifically families) who would love to travel to Canada in the winter but simply cannot afford it.

I realise that Canadian Thanksgiving is in October meaning that there isn't the same spike in demand at the end of November as in the USA and that it is before Australian school holidays, but my mother and her partner are going to the USA for Thanksgiving, returning in early Decemeber. They are burning her UA miles, there was nothing on UA at all from SYD to LAX and SFO, but wide open availability on Saver awards on AC, so I'm not so sure that they're such a great time filling it after all.



Worked Hard, Flew Right
User currently offlinestrangr From Australia, joined Apr 2012, 110 posts, RR: 0
Reply 16, posted (1 year 9 months 2 weeks 5 days 9 hours ago) and read 1413 times:

Quoting qf002 (Reply 14):
I actually think JQ would be quite successful into YVR with a seasonal flight that runs November-February. AC charges through the nose for these flights at this time of year, and I think there are probably quite a few people (specifically families) who would love to travel to Canada in the winter but simply cannot afford it.

I would think you are right for a seasonal ticket only. To cover those skiers that want to take to the slopes of the Rocky Mountains.

Quoting longhauler (Reply 9):
appeared to be resistant to the "Low Cost" type of travel, in favour of a more "upscale" carrier.

Personally anyone who wants to fly for 19+ hours (inclusive of transit) in a low cost environment should check out the local shipping companies that will offer a ticket. It would cost you more to cover the extras then it would for an actual full fare style ticket.

In saying that we purchased a ticket MEL-SYD-DFW-MSY then the return leg LAS-LAX-MEL and it cost us $1600 inclusive of taxes, which was easy to upgrade the two long legs to premium with FF points. yes our ticket is somewhat low season but still thats a pretty good price. (that above is with QF and AA)


User currently offlinethegeek From Australia, joined Nov 2007, 2638 posts, RR: 0
Reply 17, posted (1 year 9 months 2 weeks 5 days 9 hours ago) and read 1413 times:

Quoting qf002 (Reply 14):
VA's equipment is wrong

That's the killer argument for me. Unless you are talking about BNE-YVR for which its equipment is still wrong.

Quoting qf002 (Reply 14):
SFO makes the most sense in North America

Possibly, but I would say that SEA gives it a good run for its money. If a code share deal with AS could be arranged, that would be a much more connected service than with VX at SFO. Against that is the greater O&D at SFO.

SYD-SEA is a bit shorter than MEL-LAX, so shouldn't be a big problem for the 77W to operate.


User currently offlineYVRLTN From Canada, joined Oct 2006, 2447 posts, RR: 0
Reply 18, posted (1 year 9 months 2 weeks 5 days 6 hours ago) and read 1411 times:

Quoting longhauler (Reply 9):
remember at a Town Hall meeting a few months ago, someone asked if Australia would be flown by the then proposed Pacific LCC. The answer was that the Australia market seems to be unique, and high yield, and passengers surveyed appeared to be resistant to the "Low Cost" type of travel, in favour of a more "upscale" carrier. For that reason, I would imagine QF would be in the market before JQ.

I wouldnt normally disagree with your knowledge and experience, but I dont think the passengers surveyed in this case were the dozens and dozens of young Ozzie snowboarders up in Whistler. I think the fares are artifically high because AC have a monopoly and can charge what they want. Still, neither necessarily justifies another entrant into the market, the cost sensitive traveller can get deals with NZ via AKL or the Chinese carriers.



Follow me on twitter for YVR movements @vernonYVR
User currently offlinelonghauler From Canada, joined Mar 2004, 4927 posts, RR: 43
Reply 19, posted (1 year 9 months 2 weeks 5 days 6 hours ago) and read 1410 times:

Quoting YVRLTN (Reply 18):
I wouldnt normally disagree with your knowledge and experience, but I dont think the passengers surveyed in this case were the dozens and dozens of young Ozzie snowboarders up in Whistler. I think the fares are artifically high because AC have a monopoly and can charge what they want.

You are correct, but ... if AC is admitting to 80% LF at the fares currently charged, why drop them?

And, if a Chinese carrier can make money flying someone from Australia to Canada, through China, at fares for half what AC charges ... go for it! There will always be those "back-packing" passengers looking for the absolutely lowest fare, and not every carrier chases them.

However, when a carrier has a monopoly, and charges fares reflecting that monopoly, then they leave themselves open for competition. We'll see what happens.



Never gonna grow up, never gonna slow down .... Barefoot Blue Jean Night
User currently offlineqf002 From Australia, joined Jul 2011, 2963 posts, RR: 2
Reply 20, posted (1 year 9 months 2 weeks 5 days 5 hours ago) and read 1409 times:

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 15):

I'm looking at fares through December and early January on their website, and they are all coming out at $3200+. Perhaps there is some more availability this year because of the additional flights they've added?

Quoting thegeek (Reply 17):
Possibly, but I would say that SEA gives it a good run for its money. If a code share deal with AS could be arranged, that would be a much more connected service than with VX at SFO. Against that is the greater O&D at SFO.

SEA would be interesting. DL also has decent connectivity out of SEA, which would be a positive. That said, I think bringing BNE/MEL-LAX frequencies up would take priority.


User currently offlinea36001 From Australia, joined Sep 2012, 172 posts, RR: 0
Reply 21, posted (1 year 9 months 2 weeks 4 days 20 hours ago) and read 1409 times:

What was the reason QF pulled out of YVR again?

Never mind.... Q answered  Smile

[Edited 2012-11-06 05:19:12]

User currently offlinelonghauler From Canada, joined Mar 2004, 4927 posts, RR: 43
Reply 22, posted (1 year 9 months 2 weeks 4 days 18 hours ago) and read 1409 times:

Quoting qf002 (Reply 20):
I'm looking at fares through December and early January on their website, and they are all coming out at $3200+. Perhaps there is some more availability this year because of the additional flights they've added?

As you know, that is high season for travel between Canada and Australia, with the lowest fares selling out almost 6 months in advance. Out of interest, I checked the loads in res, and all but full fare Y and J are booked solid for about 6 weeks, so yes, the "cheapest" fare showing would be full fare Y. But ... that is not the fare paid by about 75% of the passengers.

Quoting a36001 (Reply 21):
What was the reason QF pulled out of YVR again?

Why did QF pull out of YVR?



Never gonna grow up, never gonna slow down .... Barefoot Blue Jean Night
User currently offlinethegeek From Australia, joined Nov 2007, 2638 posts, RR: 0
Reply 23, posted (1 year 9 months 2 weeks 4 days 9 hours ago) and read 1408 times:

Quoting a36001 (Reply 21):
What was the reason QF pulled out of YVR again?

I surmise that the reason was AC started offering a far superior direct service SYD-YVR as compared to QF's seasonal tag SYD-SFO-YVR.

It's not rocket science.


User currently offlinethegeek From Australia, joined Nov 2007, 2638 posts, RR: 0
Reply 24, posted (1 year 9 months 2 weeks 4 days 4 hours ago) and read 1408 times:

Quoting qf002 (Reply 20):
SEA would be interesting. DL also has decent connectivity out of SEA, which would be a positive. That said, I think bringing BNE/MEL-LAX frequencies up would take priority.

I imagine that they would love to increase BNE/MEL-LAX, but there isn't the demand to do so. Whether there would be demand for SFO or SEA is probably debatable too.

Regarding DL@SEA, that seems to offer a subset of what AS would.

SYD-SFO pax for August:
2009: 28 939
2010: 25 956
2011: 14 890 (UA only)
2012: 17 699 (UA only)

Certainly seems like the market could bear increased direct services.


Top Of Page
Forum Index

This topic is archived and can not be replied to any more.

Printer friendly format

Similar topics:More similar topics...
Virgin Australia To Ground Low Cost Fares posted Mon Feb 16 2009 03:08:51 by 1821
Virgin Australia To Get Terminals posted Sun Dec 5 1999 04:04:03 by Sp-deluxe
Virgin Pacific To Launch Ex YVR? posted Tue Oct 9 2012 21:33:59 by YVRLTN
Virgin Australia A330 Diverted To ADL. Why? (21/5) posted Mon May 21 2012 05:20:34 by CXfirst
Virgin Australia: No Plans To Join Star Alliance, posted Thu Apr 5 2012 23:28:47 by ZKOJH
Virgin Atlantic To Operate To Australia By DEC posted Tue Jul 15 2003 19:37:47 by Gulfair
Virgin Atlantic To Australia & Future Routes? posted Sun May 11 2003 10:50:58 by Airmale
Virgin Atlantic To Start Australia Services posted Wed Nov 6 2002 11:29:24 by Britair
Virgin Atlantic To Australia posted Sat Jan 12 2002 10:41:29 by Skippy777
Virgin To YVR (Vancouver) posted Tue Nov 6 2001 05:12:32 by ILS 09