cosmofly From United States of America, joined May 2009, 648 posts, RR: 0 Reply 2, posted (6 months 2 weeks 5 days 18 hours ago) and read 25535 times:
If CAAC has issues about 787 certification, CAAC should just publish what they have concern with and let everybody make their judgement. If they are valid, I am sure there will be a lot of support to make the sky safer.
Again if it is certfication issues related, FAA could also publish what CAAC brought up.
Just wondering why all these silence about mothballing the 787s.
SonomaFlyer From United States of America, joined Apr 2010, 1177 posts, RR: 0 Reply 3, posted (6 months 2 weeks 5 days 18 hours ago) and read 25483 times:
Quoting cosmofly (Reply 2): If CAAC has issues about 787 certification, CAAC should just publish what they have concern with and let everybody make their judgement. If they are valid, I am sure there will be a lot of support to make the sky safer.
That's not how the Chinese roll. They will be more subtle and use their considerable leverage in all sorts of different areas of our Govt. That is assuming this is the hold up.
KarelXWB From Netherlands, joined Jul 2012, 1787 posts, RR: 6 Reply 4, posted (6 months 2 weeks 5 days 12 hours ago) and read 25127 times:
Quote: They are probably removing the interiors to perform the electrical and A/C ducting rework. a good part of the interiors are common to all customers so I think it's smoke.
True, but the case of LN11, LN18 and LN22 is different. Boeing moved those frames back into storage after they did some work on it. Maybe they stripped the interiors and used it for the new frames, meaning LN11, LN18 and LN22 and maybe LN15 will go to another customer.
United787 From United States of America, joined May 2005, 2346 posts, RR: 1 Reply 5, posted (6 months 2 weeks 5 days 6 hours ago) and read 24914 times:
As always, thank you to All Things 787 (NYC777) and others for the information that is summarized here. For more specific information on the production aircraft, I recommend going to http://nyc787.blogspot.com/
United787 From United States of America, joined May 2005, 2346 posts, RR: 1 Reply 6, posted (6 months 2 weeks 5 days 5 hours ago) and read 24915 times:
It is shocking to me that of the 19 aircraft that have completed production and change incorporation, 13 of them are for airlines that aren't taking delivery of them in a timely manner: AI, QR, HU & CZ. That is 68%! That has to be unprecedented for this type of program. The production seems to be clogged with aircraft for these four airlines...
It will be nice to get some more "normal" airlines as operators so Boeing can deliver planes at a pace that reflects it's production and change incorporation rate. Too bad that after LO takes delivery, it will be a while until BY and AM takes their first.
sweair From Sweden, joined Nov 2011, 1551 posts, RR: 0 Reply 7, posted (6 months 2 weeks 5 days 5 hours ago) and read 24899 times:
QR is always a hassle for any program, AI is mostly financial, the Chinese carriers would probably love to take their frames but someone higher up is calling the shots now.
capri From Morocco, joined Sep 2003, 280 posts, RR: 1 Reply 12, posted (6 months 2 weeks 5 days 5 hours ago) and read 24913 times:
It's strange that Boeing didn't comment on schedule change for AT, usually we are used to the other way around from AT, they never comment on anything even that famous hard landing at JFK in 2009, well anyway they are trying to sell 44% of its stake that no one will buy same as strangely their 4 A321 still didn't find a buyer since March through falko
"i may not know everything, but i try to know a bit of everything"
NYC777 From United States of America, joined Jun 2004, 5155 posts, RR: 49 Reply 13, posted (6 months 2 weeks 5 days 4 hours ago) and read 24913 times:
Quoting capri (Reply 12): It's strange that Boeing didn't comment on schedule change for AT, usually we are used to the other way around from AT, they never comment on anything even that famous hard landing at JFK in 2009, well anyway they are trying to sell 44% of its stake that no one will buy same as strangely their 4 A321 still didn't find a buyer since March through falko
It's Boeing's policy not to comment on customer deliveries.
PHX787 From Japan, joined Mar 2012, 4966 posts, RR: 14 Reply 14, posted (6 months 2 weeks 5 days 3 hours ago) and read 24920 times:
Quoting United787 (Reply 5): Please note that I have removed the Chinese aircraft from the “Next Up” list since they are being put in storage…
Quoting cosmofly (Reply 2): If CAAC has issues about 787 certification, CAAC should just publish what they have concern with and let everybody make their judgement. If they are valid, I am sure there will be a lot of support to make the sky safer.
So CAAC/ CZ and HU are going to be our new "Airlines that shall not be named"
starrion From United States of America, joined Jul 2003, 1081 posts, RR: 2 Reply 15, posted (6 months 2 weeks 5 days 2 hours ago) and read 24915 times:
Quoting PHX787 (Reply 14): So CAAC/ CZ and HU are going to be our new "Airlines that shall not be named"
Seriously. Charleston must be planning a parking annex.
Has the been any chatter over why the CAAC has a problem with the 787? Are they having an issue with the investigation into the problems with the GenX?
WarpSpeed From United States of America, joined Feb 2010, 516 posts, RR: 3 Reply 17, posted (6 months 2 weeks 5 days 1 hour ago) and read 24898 times:
Quoting PHX787 (Reply 14): So CAAC/ CZ and HU are going to be our new "Airlines that shall not be named"
More like "Aviation Administration that shall not be named." Unlike AI, which certainly contributed to its delivery delays, CZ and HU appear to be pawns in an Anglo-American/Sino chess match.
United787 From United States of America, joined May 2005, 2346 posts, RR: 1 Reply 19, posted (6 months 2 weeks 5 days 1 hour ago) and read 24906 times:
I wonder if this Chinese issue has to due with the presidential campaign and Romney's threat to China...we will see if it goes away after the election, if Obama wins...
WarpSpeed From United States of America, joined Feb 2010, 516 posts, RR: 3 Reply 20, posted (6 months 2 weeks 5 days 1 hour ago) and read 24903 times:
Quoting petera380 (Reply 18): Er, I think that should read Yank-Sino chess match as Anglo refers to England as in Anglo Saxon etc!
I thought the same, but looked it up. Apparently, Anglo can refer to "a white person who lives in the U.S. and is not Hispanic." With that said, I've edited the post to "Anglo-American" to differentiate from "Anglo Saxon" all the more to show that we are two nations divided by a common language.
WarpSpeed From United States of America, joined Feb 2010, 516 posts, RR: 3 Reply 21, posted (6 months 2 weeks 5 days 1 hour ago) and read 24907 times:
Quoting United787 (Reply 19): I wonder if this Chinese issue has to due with the presidential campaign and Romney's threat to China
And/or, the high Japanese content in the 787? Japanese-Chinese relations are very frayed at the moment over disputed islands and rights to surrounding natural resources. Its my understanding that the drama is being played out on economic fronts, as well as, the diplomatic/military confrontations. The 787 may be one of those battlefields...
petera380 From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 324 posts, RR: 0 Reply 23, posted (6 months 2 weeks 5 days ago) and read 24914 times:
Quoting petera380 (Reply 18): I wonder if this Chinese issue has to due with the presidential campaign and Romney's threat to China
From what I have read I believe that the CAAC wants the FAA/CAA to relax their rules to make it easier for the Chinese to get their own aircraft certified in the West. The CAAC standards appear to be lower then the standards used in the West.
SonomaFlyer From United States of America, joined Apr 2010, 1177 posts, RR: 0 Reply 24, posted (6 months 2 weeks 4 days 23 hours ago) and read 24903 times:
Quoting petera380 (Reply 23): From what I have read I believe that the CAAC wants the FAA/CAA to relax their rules to make it easier for the Chinese to get their own aircraft certified in the West. The CAAC standards appear to be lower then the standards used in the West.
If that is the case, the 787's for the Chinese airlines will be sitting in storage and on Boeing's books for a long time.
Stitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 26718 posts, RR: 83 Reply 25, posted (6 months 2 weeks 4 days 22 hours ago) and read 25376 times:
Quoting WarpSpeed (Reply 21): And/or, the high Japanese content in the 787?
The 777 has a fair bit of Japanese-sourced content.
Quoting petera380 (Reply 23): From what I have read I believe that the CAAC wants the FAA/CAA to relax their rules to make it easier for the Chinese to get their own aircraft certified in the West. The CAAC standards appear to be lower then the standards used in the West.
Quoting SonomaFlyer (Reply 24): If that is the case, the 787's for the Chinese airlines will be sitting in storage and on Boeing's books for a long time.
Even if the FAA did loosen their standards, that wouldn't help with EASA certification. And since CZ has taken delivery of their first A380, they have no card to play with the EU until it comes time for CA's first A350 delivery.
fleabyte From Brazil, joined Jan 2010, 76 posts, RR: 0 Reply 26, posted (6 months 2 weeks 4 days 22 hours ago) and read 25384 times:
"From what I have read I believe that the CAAC wants the FAA/CAA to relax their rules to make it easier for the Chinese to get their own aircraft certified in the West. The CAAC standards appear to be lower then the standards used in the West."
=ABSURDITY
1. Can someone briefly explain at a high level what will be involved to refit these Chinese planes and sell them to another carrier?
2. Can someone explain what will be required to switch the future Chinese slots to the next non prima dona client in the lineup?
3. It seems like this must be hurting Hainan and China Southern business plans, and the cost of getting ready for the 787's wasted.
NYC777 From United States of America, joined Jun 2004, 5155 posts, RR: 49 Reply 27, posted (6 months 2 weeks 4 days 22 hours ago) and read 25909 times:
Other airlines will fly into China (i.e. United with service from LAX to Shanghai next year) While foreign airlines are flying the 787 (and other modern aircraft) into Chinese airspace, the local airlines are being shut out of acquiring the same equipment to compete with. Guess the Chinese have yet to learn something more about free market competition.
ual747-600 From United States of America, joined Sep 1999, 538 posts, RR: 0 Reply 28, posted (6 months 2 weeks 4 days 22 hours ago) and read 25883 times:
I don't understand how the Chinese gov't can keep their domestic airlines from taking delivery of their 787's on certification issues and yet let ANA and JAL fly 787 to Chinese cities.
SonomaFlyer From United States of America, joined Apr 2010, 1177 posts, RR: 0 Reply 29, posted (6 months 2 weeks 4 days 22 hours ago) and read 25893 times:
Quoting fleabyte (Reply 26): 1. Can someone briefly explain at a high level what will be involved to refit these Chinese planes and sell them to another carrier?
2. Can someone explain what will be required to switch the future Chinese slots to the next non prima dona client in the lineup?
3. It seems like this must be hurting Hainan and China Southern business plans, and the cost of getting ready for the 787's wasted.
It's not as simple as refitting for another carrier and "reallocating" slots to other carriers. If Boeing were to take the step of taking those a/c and selling them to someone else and cancelling the production slots and orders, they will effectively shut themselves out of a massive market. China is the world's most populous country and experiencing more growth in air service demand than anywhere on earth.
It would be relatively simple to either move up everyone to take the Chinese slots or sell them to an airline. Refitting the aircraft will be more complicated because each order has specialty items attached that vary from carrier to carrier. It could take weeks or months to "refit" an aircraft for another carrier.
fleabyte From Brazil, joined Jan 2010, 76 posts, RR: 0 Reply 30, posted (6 months 2 weeks 4 days 21 hours ago) and read 25914 times:
Thanks for your reply Sonoma Flyer
but...
I would think that In reality, China must buy aircraft from Boeing whether they want to or not, Airbus can not produce enough aircraft at this point. I realize it is not easy and hence the question.
so the already built aircraft - I assume it would be to find a flexible buyer that would accept as many installed systems as possible such as the seats, the galleys, the engines, the options on the engines and avionics, then refit the other systems that the client could not accept? and negotiate with the Chinese carrier- refusing to accept delivery to reduce, delay or cancel their order.
aircraft in production lineup - I think I read in here that major sub systems are ordered years in advance and manufactured and delivered JIT or close to JIT? So just pushing the near term slots back by 10 or 20 positions seems a reasonable reaction to the current situation of Boeing continuing to pile up 200 million dollar paper weights at the far field runway?
WarpSpeed From United States of America, joined Feb 2010, 516 posts, RR: 3 Reply 31, posted (6 months 2 weeks 4 days 21 hours ago) and read 25938 times:
Quoting Stitch (Reply 25): The 777 has a fair bit of Japanese-sourced content.
And, it was certified for China decades before the Diaoyu or Senkaku islands tension escalated dramatically. There have been violent anti-Japanese protests across China in the recent months.
SonomaFlyer From United States of America, joined Apr 2010, 1177 posts, RR: 0 Reply 33, posted (6 months 2 weeks 4 days 20 hours ago) and read 25924 times:
Quoting fleabyte (Reply 30): I would think that In reality, China must buy aircraft from Boeing whether they want to or not, Airbus can not produce enough aircraft at this point.
I just don't think Boeing will be willing to run that risk. They will grind their teeth at keeping a/c in storage but the aircraft are needed to fuel China's growth and as you stated, Airbus can't pick up the slack. Also, China is fighting the EU on the carbon tax issue which has further complicated wide body purchases for Chinese airlines. There is leverage on Boeing's side as well.
kanban From United States of America, joined Jan 2008, 2467 posts, RR: 21 Reply 34, posted (6 months 2 weeks 4 days 20 hours ago) and read 25876 times:
I think the country that shall not be named discussion on delayed deliveries should be a separate thread. we burn through these fast enough as it is especially with the airline that shall note be named, the CEO that shall not be named, and now the country....
as far as these planes though, would the same governmental restrictions apply if the airlines were leasing them? Say they asked a leasing company to buy the planes for them.
etoile From United States of America, joined Jun 2009, 98 posts, RR: 0 Reply 35, posted (6 months 2 weeks 4 days 19 hours ago) and read 25856 times:
Quoting WarpSpeed (Reply 20): i've edited the post to "Anglo-American" to differentiate from "Anglo Saxon" all the more to show that we are two nations divided by a common language.
tdscanuck From Canada, joined Jan 2006, 12709 posts, RR: 80 Reply 36, posted (6 months 2 weeks 4 days 18 hours ago) and read 25852 times:
Quoting fleabyte (Reply 26): 1. Can someone briefly explain at a high level what will be involved to refit these Chinese planes and sell them to another carrier?
Remove the customer-specific interior (sidewalls, seats, carpet, galleys, lavs, IFE). Install new customer interior. Change out the software. Re-register the aircraft (actual registry, ICAO code, SELCAL, etc.). Potentially add/remove several hardware options.
Quoting fleabyte (Reply 26): 2. Can someone explain what will be required to switch the future Chinese slots to the next non prima dona client in the lineup?
Very little. Customers have no say in what production slot they have (they only have control over their delivery time window). Slots are typically assigned about 6-12 months ahead (probably more for the 787 since it's so delayed) but they're moved around on a regular basis.
Quoting fleabyte (Reply 26): "From what I have read I believe that the CAAC wants the FAA/CAA to relax their rules to make it easier for the Chinese to get their own aircraft certified in the West. The CAAC standards appear to be lower then the standards used in the West."
=ABSURDITY
How so? This has happened before, no particular reason it can't be happening again.
Quoting fleabyte (Reply 26): 3. It seems like this must be hurting Hainan and China Southern business plans, and the cost of getting ready for the 787's wasted.
Yes, but Hainan and China Southern don't control aircraft purchasing, the Chinese government does. If the government has decided, for whatever reason, that this is a good political move then Hainan and China Southern have no leverage to combat that.
Quoting ual747-600 (Reply 28): I don't understand how the Chinese gov't can keep their domestic airlines from taking delivery of their 787's on certification issues and yet let ANA and JAL fly 787 to Chinese cities.
ANA and JAL 787's are certified by the JAA, not the Chinese government. ICAO treaties, almost without exception, grant reciprocal acceptance of other countries' certification. That's the same way that old Russian aircraft can fly in the US despite not having (and probably never having) FAA certification.
sweair From Sweden, joined Nov 2011, 1551 posts, RR: 0 Reply 38, posted (6 months 2 weeks 4 days 11 hours ago) and read 25694 times:
I hope we never trade safety for profits, the western world may be financially weak but we still have some morals left! This time I think the Chinese miscalculated with our resolve?!
par13del From Bahamas, joined Dec 2005, 5901 posts, RR: 8 Reply 39, posted (6 months 2 weeks 4 days 10 hours ago) and read 25691 times:
Quoting WarpSpeed (Reply 21): And/or, the high Japanese content in the 787? Japanese-Chinese relations are very frayed at the moment over disputed islands and rights to surrounding natural resources.
Well, if that is the case either they will never operate 787's or they must make accomodations elsewhere, I'm certain they know that Boeing will not chnage OEM's and set up an entirely new production system for a/c destined for China
Quoting ual747-600 (Reply 28): I don't understand how the Chinese gov't can keep their domestic airlines from taking delivery of their 787's on certification issues and yet let ANA and JAL fly 787 to Chinese cities.
It is every governments right to set the standards for its people, domestic is just that, domestic.
Now if China cancels it bi-lateral with Japan to stop the 787 operating into China for the benefit of the Japanese people, one can expect them to do the same with any other country who attempt to fly the 787 into China, would be very benevolent of them looking out for the world like that.
scouseflyer From United Kingdom, joined Apr 2006, 3254 posts, RR: 10 Reply 40, posted (6 months 2 weeks 4 days 10 hours ago) and read 25717 times:
I'm very puzzled that the Chinese seem to be picking fights with both A & B at the moment (remember that they keep trying to influence EU rules by dangling the "large A330" order that could be placed. Where are they going to get wide bodies from if they fall out with both suppliers?
par13del From Bahamas, joined Dec 2005, 5901 posts, RR: 8 Reply 41, posted (6 months 2 weeks 4 days 8 hours ago) and read 25685 times:
Quoting scouseflyer (Reply 40): Where are they going to get wide bodies from if they fall out with both suppliers?
Will never happen, the politicians in the USA and the EU want / need Chinese money, so accomodations will be made elsewhere.
Quoting scouseflyer (Reply 40): I'm very puzzled that the Chinese seem to be picking fights with both A & B
It's called leveraging ones position, in this case, they are a customer. Until a business house tells a customer to take his money elsewhere, these things will continue. Boeing previously turned down FR, but did cave to "others" and did a flying display for the first time in decades, fact that the customer did not take the a/c after supposed "damages" and made public its displeasure on the issue did make those of us who did not support the cave on the display a bit of "See I told you so", but we digress.
BlueSky1976 From Poland, joined Jul 2004, 1709 posts, RR: 4 Reply 42, posted (6 months 2 weeks 4 days 7 hours ago) and read 25723 times:
I have a little update from various sources, regarding delivery of SP-LRA (Lot's first 787). As of now, it is scheduled for November 9, following by training flights.
Flyout to Warsaw will take place on 14th, arrival on the 15th, sometime between 10:30 and 11:30 local time. Apparently, it will be "intercepted" escorted to WAW by pair of PLAF F-16s with formation flypast over Okecie Airport, weather permitting.
Stitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 26718 posts, RR: 83 Reply 43, posted (6 months 2 weeks 4 days 6 hours ago) and read 25711 times:
Quoting fleabyte (Reply 37): I did not realize the FAA had relaxed standards already in such a scenario?
It's not the FAA relaxing their standards. It's the FAA accepting at prima facia value the certification of another country's aviation certification agency. And it is not unique or specific to the FAA, but is established by treaty for most agencies.
If the CAAC is deliberately holding up certification of the 787, Boeing might very well have legal grounds to stand on, but they won't because of the backlash from the Chinese if they did so.
As such, they'll just park the planes in the corner until CAAC is ready to accept them.
NYC777 From United States of America, joined Jun 2004, 5155 posts, RR: 49 Reply 44, posted (6 months 2 weeks 4 days 4 hours ago) and read 25663 times:
Quoting BlueSky1976 (Reply 42): I have a little update from various sources, regarding delivery of SP-LRA (Lot's first 787). As of now, it is scheduled for November 9, following by training flights.
Flyout to Warsaw will take place on 14th, arrival on the 15th, sometime between 10:30 and 11:30 local time. Apparently, it will be "intercepted" escorted to WAW by pair of PLAF F-16s with formation flypast over Okecie Airport, weather permitting.
cosmofly From United States of America, joined May 2009, 648 posts, RR: 0 Reply 46, posted (6 months 2 weeks 4 days ago) and read 25600 times:
Quoting SonomaFlyer (Reply 3):
Quoting cosmofly (Reply 2):
If CAAC has issues about 787 certification, CAAC should just publish what they have concern with and let everybody make their judgement. If they are valid, I am sure there will be a lot of support to make the sky safer.
That's not how the Chinese roll.
" “Some people say the CAAC is being tougher with Comac than the FAA would have been,” says that official. That should not be a surprise. The Chinese authority, renowned for its conservative approach to safety, is also unusually demanding in the standards it imposes on airframe maintenance, while its requirements for the physical condition of civil pilots are sometimes half jokingly compared with the national space program’s demands on astronauts. "
aeroblogger From India, joined Dec 2011, 1363 posts, RR: 0 Reply 47, posted (6 months 2 weeks 4 days ago) and read 25593 times:
Quoting WarpSpeed (Reply 17): More like "Aviation Administration that shall not be named." Unlike AI, which certainly contributed to its delivery delays, CZ and HU appear to be pawns in an Anglo-American/Sino chess match.
In the case of Air India's delivery delays, AI is also a pawn in a chess match. It's just that the chess match is internal - between the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Civil Aviation...
Thanks to this chess match, MoF has blocked AI's access to the bridge financing they had lined up, so AI has restarted the tender process a few weeks ago.
Until this new tendering process is complete (or Ministry of Finance shuts up), AI's deliveries are all on hold.
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NYC777 From United States of America, joined Jun 2004, 5155 posts, RR: 49 Reply 48, posted (6 months 2 weeks 3 days 23 hours ago) and read 25609 times:
Quoting aeroblogger (Reply 47):
In the case of Air India's delivery delays, AI is also a pawn in a chess match. It's just that the chess match is internal - between the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Civil Aviation...
Thanks to this chess match, MoF has blocked AI's access to the bridge financing they had lined up, so AI has restarted the tender process a few weeks ago.
Until this new tendering process is complete (or Ministry of Finance shuts up), AI's deliveries are all on hold.
That's just great.
Any fears in the Western World of India being an economic power house are put to rest by the actions of hte Indian Govt.
WarpSpeed From United States of America, joined Feb 2010, 516 posts, RR: 3 Reply 49, posted (6 months 2 weeks 3 days 21 hours ago) and read 25559 times:
Quoting etoile (Reply 35): Why are you excluding 1/3 of the U.S. population?
You're right, I should have just said Americans! The melting pot of the world. I'm sure "Sino" offended someone, somewhere, too....
Quoting aeroblogger (Reply 47): In the case of Air India's delivery delays, AI is also a pawn in a chess match
Stepping back a bit, would the Indian government be so involved at this juncture but for AI needing a bailout due unprofitable operations/mismanagement? Its hard to imagine AI as a pawn if their actions gave rise to increased oversight. My apologies upfront for not having a complete understanding of the dynamics at play here. Your perspective adds a lot to this thread.
sweair From Sweden, joined Nov 2011, 1551 posts, RR: 0 Reply 50, posted (6 months 2 weeks 3 days 21 hours ago) and read 25606 times:
ANA, JAL, UA,ET, QR and LOT will take some frames before years end, maybe they even get their frames a bit faster when others are putting up a show. Bad luck to have so many customers with problems.
aeroblogger From India, joined Dec 2011, 1363 posts, RR: 0 Reply 51, posted (6 months 2 weeks 3 days 20 hours ago) and read 25593 times:
Quoting WarpSpeed (Reply 49): Stepping back a bit, would the Indian government be so involved at this juncture but for AI needing a bailout due unprofitable operations/mismanagement? Its hard to imagine AI as a pawn if their actions gave rise to increased oversight. My apologies upfront for not having a complete understanding of the dynamics at play here. Your perspective adds a lot to this thread.
Air India is most certainly a pawn. Management has no control over the airline - the Ministry micromanages the airline. Why? So that they can embezzle hundreds of millions of dollars out of the airline... Ministries like Civil Aviation and Railways are known as "Cash Ministries" - they are given to partners of the leading coalition for a few years at a time to fund their campaigns and create a vote bank (labor usually).
I won't go into the private carriers now, but I will tell you that they have their own warts as well. If you have more questions, feel free to PM, I don't want to take us too far off topic
Quoting WarpSpeed (Reply 49): The only profitable Indian airline, correct? When are they expected to take delivery of their first 787?
9W is not anywhere near long term profitability. They have an occasional profitable quarter or 2, but overall, it's a money-losing venture. It's an airline after all
6E is India's most profitable carrier, although those strong balance sheets are benefiting from repeated sale-leasebacks.
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tdscanuck From Canada, joined Jan 2006, 12709 posts, RR: 80 Reply 52, posted (6 months 2 weeks 3 days 19 hours ago) and read 25833 times:
Quoting fleabyte (Reply 37): I did not realize the FAA had relaxed standards already in such a scenario? when was that and for what aircraft?
I didn't mean that the FAA had relaxed standards necessarily, just that different regulators have disagreed with each other and butted heads in the past, sometimes within or without larger political machinations, as part of aircraft certification. The flammability reduction rule comes to mind (that was primarily FAA vs. EASA).
Quoting sweair (Reply 38): I hope we never trade safety for profits, the western world may be financially weak but we still have some morals left!
Too late. Take a look at how the Eclipse got certified.
sweair From Sweden, joined Nov 2011, 1551 posts, RR: 0 Reply 54, posted (6 months 2 weeks 3 days 10 hours ago) and read 25718 times:
Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 53): Qatar has taken delivery of A7-BCA (LN57 / ZA460) and A7-BCL (LN64 / ZA463) yesterday.
Is there anywhere that we could get official confirmation of this? We have been fooled before, jumping the gun. But seeing how Qr whined about not getting its frames fast enough, I am sure there is some good will from U-turns side, more love than from either India or China anyway. Qatar has no cash worries I bet, they just have high standards, not a speck of dust would be ok before delivery. This would make it 3 frames and 2 more are on the flight line being prepared. With a bit of luck Al could have 5 frames at years end.
United787 From United States of America, joined May 2005, 2346 posts, RR: 1 Reply 58, posted (6 months 2 weeks 3 days 1 hour ago) and read 25660 times:
Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 53): Qatar has taken delivery of A7-BCA (LN57 / ZA460) and A7-BCL (LN64 / ZA463) yesterday.
Well that is great news! I had wondered if we might see a double delivery from them...
I think it is safe to move QR to the "normal" airline list for my next update...
BTW, a minor milestone but the 788 has now passed the 748 in deliveries... 35 788 vs. 34 748
7BOEING7 From United States of America, joined Oct 2012, 508 posts, RR: 3 Reply 62, posted (6 months 2 weeks 2 days 23 hours ago) and read 25685 times:
Quoting sweair (Reply 61): 34 is correct, only 1 QR frame delivered.
Note #8 - the earlier financing had been negotiated with a GoI guarantee, which Ministry of Financing is now refusing to honor.
Also, note #3 - Boeing/AI's expected 2 Dreamliners to be delivered this month as of Oct 30. I would be very surprised if AI and Boeing can keep to this schedule.
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WarpSpeed From United States of America, joined Feb 2010, 516 posts, RR: 3 Reply 65, posted (6 months 2 weeks 2 days 20 hours ago) and read 25653 times:
Quoting aeroblogger (Reply 64): Note #8 - the earlier financing had been negotiated with a GoI guarantee, which Ministry of Financing is now refusing to honor.
The RFP's for the prior financings had the same no GoI guarantee language as in the link you provided (I reviewed them). Did the final agreements for the "winning" financing provider some how end up with such a guarantee? If so, its highly likely that any response to this new RFP will be conditioned upon ranking equally to the prior deals in all material respects; including a GoI guarantee. That is, unless AI sweetens the collateral over and above the prior deals to mitigate the lack of a guarantee.
aeroblogger From India, joined Dec 2011, 1363 posts, RR: 0 Reply 66, posted (6 months 2 weeks 2 days 20 hours ago) and read 25696 times:
Quoting WarpSpeed (Reply 65): The RFP's for the prior financings had the same no GoI guarantee language as in the link you provided (I reviewed them). Did the final agreements for the "winning" financing provider some how end up with such a guarantee? If so, its highly likely that any response to this new RFP will be conditioned upon ranking equally to the prior deals in all material respects; including a GoI guarantee. That is, unless AI sweetens the collateral over and above the prior deals to mitigate the lack of a guarantee.
Huh, I just went back and looked the earlier RFPs over, and sure enough, you're right. They all state that there is no GoI guarantee for bridge loans.
Unfortunately, my go-to person at AI finance is traveling tonight, but I will find out and get back to you tomorrow...
Airports 2012: IXE HYD DEL BLR BOM CCU KNU KTM BKK SIN ICN LAX BUR SFO PHX IAH ORD EWR PHL PVD BOS FRA MUC IST
United787 From United States of America, joined May 2005, 2346 posts, RR: 1 Reply 67, posted (6 months 2 weeks 2 days 6 hours ago) and read 25662 times:
KarelXWB From Netherlands, joined Jul 2012, 1787 posts, RR: 6 Reply 69, posted (6 months 2 weeks 1 day 9 hours ago) and read 25555 times:
Some updates:
- The next Qatar frame (A7-BCK, LN62, ZA462) is now in paint on the flightline
- The 5th Qatar frame for this year (LN82, ZA464) is inside the paint shop
- A 787 delivery ceremony for LOT is scheduled for November 12
- The second 787 for LOT (SP-LRB, LN78, ZA271) is now back on the flightline (she was at the EMC for some time)
United787 From United States of America, joined May 2005, 2346 posts, RR: 1 Reply 70, posted (6 months 2 weeks 1 day 7 hours ago) and read 25521 times:
Quoting BlueSky1976 (Reply 42): I have a little update from various sources, regarding delivery of SP-LRA (Lot's first 787). As of now, it is scheduled for November 9, following by training flights.
Is LO's first plane still scheduled for contractual delivery today?
7BOEING7 From United States of America, joined Oct 2012, 508 posts, RR: 3 Reply 71, posted (6 months 2 weeks 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 25538 times:
Looks like UAL ZA286 is out on its C-1 (5 out of the last 7 airplanes have only flown a B-1 then on to customer ) and ETH ZA261 is on its 3rd and final (hopefully) customer flight.
United787 From United States of America, joined May 2005, 2346 posts, RR: 1 Reply 74, posted (6 months 2 weeks 18 hours ago) and read 25467 times:
Both KarelXWB and 7BOEING7 said 2 QR frames were delivered this week so I am going with it...
As always, thank you to All Things 787 (NYC777) and others for the information that is summarized here. For more specific information on the aircraft in production, I recommend going to http://nyc787.blogspot.com/
DELIVERED TO DATE: 36 Aircraft to 8 Airlines
DELIVERIES PRIOR TO NOVEMBER
NH-16; JL-6; AI-3; ET-3; LA-2; UA–2; QR-1
NOVEMBER DELIVERIES TO DATE
L/N 64 - A7-BCL – 11/06/2012- QR #2
L/N 57 - A7-BCA – 11/06/2012 - QR #3
L/N 61 - SP-LRA - 11/09/2012 - LO #1
NEXT IN LINE FOR DELIVERY Tentative - Subject to Change
L/N 44 - ET-AOP - 11/xx/2012 - ET #4
L/N 50 - N20902 - 11/xx/2012 - UA #3
L/N 80 - CC-BBC - 11/xx/2012 - LA #3 Awaiting first flight
L/N 55 - N26905 - TBD - UA #4 Awaiting first flight
L/N 62 - A7-BCC - TBD - QR #4 Awaiting first flight
L/N 78 - SP-LRB - TBD - LO #2 Awaiting first flight
L/N 82 - A7-BC? - TBD - QR #5 Awaiting first flight
L/N 83 - JA81?A - TBD - NH #17 Awaiting first flight
In addition, there are three airlines that aren’t accepting deliveries of completed aircraft due to financing or political/certification issues: 4 for AI; 3? for CZ; & 2 for HU.
sweair From Sweden, joined Nov 2011, 1551 posts, RR: 0 Reply 75, posted (6 months 2 weeks 11 hours ago) and read 25417 times:
Qr could have 5 frames by the end of 2012, do you guys think they will accept all this year, I think they only accepted 1 in November so far, 1 more is ready for delivery, 2 more await first flight. Coming years end a few more airlines would have 4 or 5 frames starting 2013.
Hainan has a bad time now, A380s deferred and its 787s stored. I guess they feel a bit squashed between its needs and the politicians in charge? The cant be blamed for the 787 holdup, that would be a political problem CAAC is the governments agency.
lightsaber From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 10685 posts, RR: 100 Reply 76, posted (6 months 2 weeks 3 hours ago) and read 25428 times:
It looks like we are on course for over a hundred 787 deliveries in 2013. Finally building 'economy of scale.' I've been posting on various a.net threats that once there is are enough 787s+A350s in the fleet, we will see a big shift in routes offered (as well as economic shift on other aircraft types). That is a few years away, but we are on the path.
Note: I'm also an A380 fan. If one plots a dot on a chart with the x-axis being the cost per flight and the y-axis the CASM, the 787, A350, and A380 all hold excellent positions. (One wants to be towards the lower left corner of the chart.) This will continue to make life interesting on the 744, A346/A345, A343, 763ER, and eventually A332 (but much later).
So far of the airlines flying the 788 today, I'm most interested to see what LA does with the type. I think they will be the first (but not the only) airline to show how the 787 will 'change the game.' But there is a chance UA, NH, or JL will also (but I just haven't seen it yet); perhaps I missed an interesting new route announcement? What I know is LA and the 787 are certain to change how people fly between South America and Europe and probably North America too.
Quoting NYC777 (Reply 48): Any fears in the Western World of India being an economic power house are put to rest by the actions of hte Indian Govt.
I'm not sure holding up 787 deliveries is really hurting AI. Not with readily available 77Ls. But the GoI is amusing in how they handicap the home industries. That needs to change for economic reasons, but is outside this forum (and very off topic). I'm sad not seeing 787s delivered, but with the 'Airline that shall not be named,' it is just another day. Its stopped being drama but rather expected.
sweair From Sweden, joined Nov 2011, 1551 posts, RR: 0 Reply 78, posted (6 months 2 weeks 3 hours ago) and read 25622 times:
Parts for the first Thomson 787 is being loaded into FAL now, production to start in a week? Nice to see a multitude of airlines getting their 787s now. Even if this frame will not deliver for a few months yet.
ER757 From Cayman Islands, joined May 2005, 2225 posts, RR: 8 Reply 80, posted (6 months 1 week 6 days 21 hours ago) and read 25558 times:
Quoting NYC777 (Reply 77): ZA460 is making another test flight today thus this aircraft has not been delivered to Qatar.
Don't know which aircraft number it was, but a QR 787 was at BFI today - saw it when I was headed northbound on I-5 around 09:00 and was still there when I headed back south around 12:30. Have to say that is one beautiful bird. Best looking 787 I've seen so far
dynamicsguy From Australia, joined Jul 2008, 767 posts, RR: 8 Reply 83, posted (6 months 1 week 5 days 12 hours ago) and read 25488 times:
Quoting afriwing (Reply 82): This is the actual delivery, as opposed to the media-propaganda-a-la-QR-style delivery last month
I know you're stirring, but I'll bite. No this is not. The actual delivery is when they transfer ownership, and that is what happened back then. What QR chooses to do with it after that is their own business.
justloveplanes From United States of America, joined Jul 2004, 871 posts, RR: 1 Reply 84, posted (6 months 1 week 5 days 9 hours ago) and read 25424 times:
Quoting lightsaber (Reply 76): What I know is LA and the 787 are certain to change how people fly between South America and Europe and probably North America too.
SCL767 From Chile, joined Feb 2006, 8270 posts, RR: 5 Reply 85, posted (6 months 1 week 5 days 6 hours ago) and read 25428 times:
Quoting lightsaber (Reply 76): What I know is LA and the 787 are certain to change how people fly between South America and Europe and probably North America too.
Indeed, LA is extremely happy with the performance of the 787s and will deploy them on routes to LAX very soon. However, LA is looking at opening two new long-haul routes to Europe next year with the 787s.
Quoting lightsaber (Reply 76):
What I know is LA and the 787 are certain to change how people fly between South America and Europe and probably North America too.
So is Chile going to be a mini-Dubai?
FYI, LAN has passenger affiliates in five different South American countries and also plans to open new long-haul routes via Brazil in cooperation with its sister carrier TAM.
rwessel From United States of America, joined Jan 2007, 1989 posts, RR: 2 Reply 88, posted (6 months 1 week 5 days 4 hours ago) and read 25410 times:
Boeing has announced that they rolled out the first 787 at the 5/mo production rate last week, and stated that they'll be increasing production to 10/mo by the end of 2013.
7BOEING7 From United States of America, joined Oct 2012, 508 posts, RR: 3 Reply 89, posted (6 months 1 week 5 days 4 hours ago) and read 25383 times:
Quoting rwessel (Reply 88): Boeing has announced that they rolled out the first 787 at the 5/mo production rate last week, and stated that they'll be increasing production to 10/mo by the end of 2013.
The initial goal was 10 a month -- 7 at Everett without the surge line and 3 in S Carolina. So since I imagine the surge line will still be in operation turning out 1, 2, 3 ? a month it appears they will not make their goal of 7 a month down the main line.
Stitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 26718 posts, RR: 83 Reply 90, posted (6 months 1 week 5 days 3 hours ago) and read 25381 times:
Quoting 7BOEING7 (Reply 89): The initial goal was 10 a month -- 7 at Everett without the surge line and 3 in S Carolina.
The original goal was 10 a month just at PAE. And Boeing have hinted that they could take (combined) production across both PAE and CHS beyond 10 per month.
rwessel From United States of America, joined Jan 2007, 1989 posts, RR: 2 Reply 91, posted (6 months 1 week 5 days 1 hour ago) and read 25321 times:
Quoting 7BOEING7 (Reply 89): The initial goal was 10 a month -- 7 at Everett without the surge line and 3 in S Carolina. So since I imagine the surge line will still be in operation turning out 1, 2, 3 ? a month it appears they will not make their goal of 7 a month down the main line.
I can't read anything into Boeing statement that says they're expecting no further increases in production rate beyond 2013, or that 10/mo is their final goal. They're not saying they will increase it further either, of course. The announcement simply says nothing about what might follow "late 2013".
KarelXWB From Netherlands, joined Jul 2012, 1787 posts, RR: 6 Reply 92, posted (6 months 1 week 5 days ago) and read 25346 times:
LN84 / ZA183 (JAL) at position 4 inside the 40-26 building.
Here is LN83 at position 2 inside the 40-24 building, before moving to position 4 inside 40-26:
LN87 / ZA273 (LOT) and LN89 / ZA184 (JAL) at position 2 and 1 inside the 40-24 building (surge line).
Quite impressive. The surge line started with 1 frame, now there are 2 and soon there will be 3 frames at positions 1, 2 and 3 each. Together with the 4 frames inside the 40-26 building Boeing will be assembling 7 frames at once in Everett.
kanban From United States of America, joined Jan 2008, 2467 posts, RR: 21 Reply 93, posted (6 months 1 week 4 days 23 hours ago) and read 25330 times:
Quoting 7BOEING7 (Reply 89): it appears they will not make their goal of 7 a month down the main line.
Quoting rwessel (Reply 91): I can't read anything into Boeing statement that says they're expecting no further increases in production rate beyond 2013, or that 10/mo is their final goal. T
I believe that Boeing is keeping it's mouth shut and reviewing the process of these first accelerations before sticking their neck out and making announcements before all the pieces/subs are in place.
7BOEING7 From United States of America, joined Oct 2012, 508 posts, RR: 3 Reply 94, posted (6 months 1 week 4 days 21 hours ago) and read 25297 times:
Quoting Stitch (Reply 90): Quoting 7BOEING7 (Reply 89):The initial goal was 10 a month -- 7 at Everett without the surge line and 3 in S Carolina.
The original goal was 10 a month just at PAE. And Boeing have hinted that they could take (combined) production across both PAE and CHS beyond 10 per month.
I agree the initial goal was 10 at PAE but that went away in mid 2010 and since then it has been 7 and 3 without the surge line by the end of 2013. Now they're saying 10 from all sources by the end of 2013 which means their single line 10 has dropped to 7 and now to something less than 7 depending on how many the surge line turns out a month.
Quoting rwessel (Reply 91): I can't read anything into Boeing statement that says they're expecting no further increases in production rate beyond 2013, or that 10/mo is their final goal. They're not saying they will increase it further either, of course. The announcement simply says nothing about what might follow "late 2013".
I'm not saying they won't go higher, it all depends on their suppliers. I'm just sayng that it's taking 3 lines now to produce what they initally expected to produce by late 2013 from 1 or 2 lines, which is an extra added expense.
Quoting kanban (Reply 93): I believe that Boeing is keeping it's mouth shut and reviewing the process of these first accelerations before sticking their neck out and making announcements before all the pieces/subs are in place.
Not from what I've read over the last several years.
lightsaber From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 10685 posts, RR: 100 Reply 96, posted (6 months 1 week 4 days 16 hours ago) and read 25309 times:
Quoting SCL767 (Reply 85): Indeed, LA is extremely happy with the performance of the 787s and will deploy them on routes to LAX very soon. However, LA is looking at opening two new long-haul routes to Europe next year with the 787s.
Exactly. While initially it will be new routes to Europe that are exciting, I also see potential to OZ (long term, not for 3 to 5 years at a minimum) as well as new destinations in North America.
What I also wonder is the opportunities in Africa... However, I do not know enough about the business ties to start suggesting routes.
Not just Chile. I should have said LATAM. But it will open up hubbing for them in Chile that otherwise either wouldn't happen or would happen elsewhere. I also expect the TAM division to also see new long haul. With the 787? Eventually. Just when... . I'll have to admit I was thinking more the Chile LAN and TAM for the 787's near term prospects. While I hope the other LAN's show high potential (Argentina, Equador, and Colombia), I just do not see them having the need for the 787 yet.
Quoting rwessel (Reply 88):
Boeing has announced that they rolled out the first 787 at the 5/mo production rate last week, and stated that they'll be increasing production to 10/mo by the end of 2013.
Excellent. Now there was noise of deliveries of 10/mo starting soon. Have the various political 'issues' derailed that hope?
Quoting Stitch (Reply 90): The original goal was 10 a month just at PAE.
Without a surge line too... But alas, production needs to smooth out before that happens.
Quoting 7BOEING7 (Reply 94): I'm just sayng that it's taking 3 lines now to produce what they initally expected to produce by late 2013 from 1 or 2 lines, which is an extra added expense.
They are producing from 3 lines what they should have been able to do from 1. Cest la vie. How much "traveling work" is coming with the components? I suspect it is still high, but a fraction of the initial traveling work.
SCL767 From Chile, joined Feb 2006, 8270 posts, RR: 5 Reply 97, posted (6 months 1 week 4 days 16 hours ago) and read 25290 times:
Quoting lightsaber (Reply 96):
Quoting SCL767 (Reply 85):
Indeed, LA is extremely happy with the performance of the 787s and will deploy them on routes to LAX very soon. However, LA is looking at opening two new long-haul routes to Europe next year with the 787s.
Exactly. While initially it will be new routes to Europe that are exciting, I also see potential to OZ (long term, not for 3 to 5 years at a minimum) as well as new destinations in North America.
LAN also sees major potential for growth on long-haul routes via Brazil. 2014 will be an interesting year for LATAM as LAN will receive 7 787s during that year alone. By 2015, LAN plans to deploy the B-787-9s to AKL/SYD. By the end of 2015, LAN will have at least 16 787s in the fleet.
Quoting lightsaber (Reply 96): While I hope the other LAN's show high potential (Argentina, Equador, and Colombia), I just do not see them having the need for the 787 yet.
LAN Perú, LAN Colombia and LAN Ecuador will eventually operate the 787s as well.
BlueSky1976 From Poland, joined Jul 2004, 1709 posts, RR: 4 Reply 99, posted (6 months 1 week 4 days 5 hours ago) and read 25222 times:
Small update on LO 787 deliveries, per airline CEO comments:
SP-LRA - delivered 09.11.2012
SP-LRB - due "early" January 2013
SP-LRC - due "late" January 2013
SP-LRD - due "early" February 2013
SP-LRE - due "early" March 2013.
United787 From United States of America, joined May 2005, 2346 posts, RR: 1 Reply 100, posted (6 months 1 week 4 days 5 hours ago) and read 25219 times:
Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 69): - A 787 delivery ceremony for LOT is scheduled for November 12
Quoting afriwing (Reply 82): It's being tweeted that QR officials are now heading to Seattle for the delivery ceremony of A7-BCB (QR's 1st delivery)
According to Boeing, the QR 787 delivery took place yesterday, 11/12/2012. No mention of the other 1 or 2 contractual deliveries...
What about LO, they were supposed to have their big delivery ceremony yesterday?
In other news, I just checked to see if UA had put their #2 (N26906) in service and saw that it has been doing IAH-SFO, IAH-EWR and IAH-ORD. But now it is showing that it is enroute to BFI. Is UA returning the plane, 30 day money back guarantee http://flightaware.com/live/flight/N26906
NYC777 From United States of America, joined Jun 2004, 5155 posts, RR: 49 Reply 102, posted (6 months 1 week 4 days 3 hours ago) and read 25316 times:
Quoting United787 (Reply 100): According to Boeing, the QR 787 delivery took place yesterday, 11/12/2012. No mention of the other 1 or 2 contractual deliveries...
This is the ceremonial delivery of the 11st '87 that was delivered contractually last month. QR has received two 787s, the third should be delivered next week.
BlueSky1976 From Poland, joined Jul 2004, 1709 posts, RR: 4 Reply 104, posted (6 months 1 week 4 days 3 hours ago) and read 25315 times:
Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 101): What about LO, they were supposed to have their big delivery ceremony yesterday?
Apparently, the big feast will take place in Warsaw, hopefully... While Polish news outlets are reporting the delivery, industry services are awfully quiet on this topic.
The flypast over Okecie (WAW) is confirmed; 787 will be escorted by formation of four F-16s, before landing. If anybody is in Warsaw in the late morning, around 10:30CET, it's definitely worth stopping by Okecie.
United787 From United States of America, joined May 2005, 2346 posts, RR: 1 Reply 105, posted (6 months 1 week 4 days 3 hours ago) and read 25302 times:
Quoting NYC777 (Reply 102): This is the ceremonial delivery of the 11st '87 that was delivered contractually last month. QR has received two 787s, the third should be delivered next week.
Oops, I meant ceremonial delivery... I will correct the QR delivery date for #3 on my next post...
KarelXWB From Netherlands, joined Jul 2012, 1787 posts, RR: 6 Reply 106, posted (6 months 1 week 4 days 2 hours ago) and read 25313 times:
Quoting NYC777 (Reply 103): I put a call into my source and I'm waiting to find out.
Great! Thanks.
Quoting NYC777 (Reply 102): This is the ceremonial delivery of the 11st '87 that was delivered contractually last month. QR has received two 787s, the third should be delivered next week.
flightsimer From United States of America, joined Aug 2009, 409 posts, RR: 1 Reply 107, posted (6 months 1 week 4 days 2 hours ago) and read 25315 times:
We won't know what the true output of each assembly line is until they increase above 10 frames a year. Just because they have decided to use three lines instead of one for the 10/month, I would not make the statement that the original line can not handle it. If they create another line, then we know that the current lines can't be expanded to meet demand. But if they continue expand the production rate with no new lines, then we know Boeing had built a safety margin into their production plan by splitting up production onto different lines instead of trying to make them all on one.
By splitting up production now, they trained more employees up front. However, when it comes time to increase production, they will have already had practical experience and should be able to transition to the higher rates easier and quicker than if they were hired later.
United787 From United States of America, joined May 2005, 2346 posts, RR: 1 Reply 108, posted (6 months 1 week 4 days 2 hours ago) and read 25337 times:
Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 106): Al baker with scissors in his hand, that looks like a dangerous combination
I would be more concerned with Ray Conner (or any Boeing or Airbus executive) holding a pair of scissors next to Al Baker after the crap he pulls...
ual747-600 From United States of America, joined Sep 1999, 538 posts, RR: 0 Reply 109, posted (6 months 1 week 4 days 2 hours ago) and read 25340 times:
Does anyone know why UA N26906 is on the way to KBFI today?
KarelXWB From Netherlands, joined Jul 2012, 1787 posts, RR: 6 Reply 111, posted (6 months 1 week 4 days 2 hours ago) and read 25348 times:
Quoting flightsimer (Reply 107): We won't know what the true output of each assembly line is until they increase above 10 frames a year. Just because they have decided to use three lines instead of one for the 10/month, I would not make the statement that the original line can not handle it. If they create another line, then we know that the current lines can't be expanded to meet demand. But if they continue expand the production rate with no new lines, then we know Boeing had built a safety margin into their production plan by splitting up production onto different lines instead of trying to make them all on one.
By splitting up production now, they trained more employees up front. However, when it comes time to increase production, they will have already had practical experience and should be able to transition to the higher rates easier and quicker than if they were hired later.
The main 787 assembly line inside the 40-26 building is certainly able of producing at least 7 frames a month. If the 777 line can do it, so can the 787 line. So what is the problem with the main assembly line? Are there not enough workers? No, because Boeing would hire more workers if that is the case.
I think the problem is the tooling. I think workers have to do a lot of the work by hand, and there is still a lot of traveling work. Doing things by hand costs more time, and at this time you can only increase production by adding extra space. And that is what Boeing did with the 40-24 building: adding a new assembly line.
Boeing will decrease the traveling work and they can shut down the surge line once the main line is producing - let's say - 7 frames a month. Boeing could also keep the surge line to ramp the production beyond 10 frames a month but I'm not sure if that will ever happen.
KarelXWB From Netherlands, joined Jul 2012, 1787 posts, RR: 6 Reply 112, posted (6 months 1 week 4 days 2 hours ago) and read 25356 times:
Quoting NYC777 (Reply 110): LN 59 is in Stall 102 and painted.
LN 83 is in the paint hangar
LN 59 is JA817A.
Cool, thanks for the quick update.
Quoting United787 (Reply 108): I would be more concerned with Ray Conner (or any Boeing or Airbus executive) holding a pair of scissors next to Al Baker after the crap he pulls...
:D
Quoting ual747-600 (Reply 109): Does anyone know why UA N26906 is on the way to KBFI today?
7BOEING7 From United States of America, joined Oct 2012, 508 posts, RR: 3 Reply 113, posted (6 months 1 week 4 days 2 hours ago) and read 25376 times:
Quoting flightsimer (Reply 107): We won't know what the true output of each assembly line is until they increase above 10 frames a year. Just because they have decided to use three lines instead of one for the 10/month, I would not make the statement that the original line can not handle it.
Never said the original line can't handle it, just said they won't be producing as many on the main line at PAE as they said they would by the end of 2013. I fully expect them to eventually get to 7 or even 10 a month on that line--they're over 8 a month on the 777.
Quoting flightsimer (Reply 107): But if they continue expand the production rate with no new lines, then we know Boeing had built a safety margin into their production plan by splitting up production onto different lines instead of trying to make them all on one.
Each new line is more investment $$$$ pushing the breakeven point farther out. It may get more planes out the door each month but they cost more.
Quoting flightsimer (Reply 107): By splitting up production now, they trained more employees up front. However, when it comes time to increase production, they will have already had practical experience and should be able to transition to the higher rates easier and quicker than if they were hired later.
The object is not to train more employees to increase the rate but to use the ones they have more efficiently.
sweair From Sweden, joined Nov 2011, 1551 posts, RR: 0 Reply 114, posted (6 months 1 week 4 days 1 hour ago) and read 25369 times:
The manager that had to leave told Charleston they would make 7 frames a month in the future, I can see 7+7 being the long term plan for Boeing. They built Charleston with expansion in mind.
Seeing how few new orders the 787 program has got the last few years maybe there is no need to go above 120 frames /year? At the end of 2012 they have produced closer to 100 frames so far in the program, with some 800 more to get produced.
I wonder when the backlog will start to grow again?
KarelXWB From Netherlands, joined Jul 2012, 1787 posts, RR: 6 Reply 115, posted (6 months 1 week 4 days 1 hour ago) and read 25385 times:
Quote: I wonder when the backlog will start to grow again?
Never? Boeing will be building 787 frames faster they are selling them. In the end, the backlog should be something around the current 777 backlog, a little bit bigger maybe. And a production rate of 10 frames a month should be fine for a backlog of 300-350 frames.
Quote: I can see 7+7 being the long term plan for Boeing.
Building 168 frames a year is probably good to shrink the current backlog, but they will have to decrease it again later (unless Boeing could sell 168 frames a year but I don't see that happen). Increasing production is tricky business.
Stitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 26718 posts, RR: 83 Reply 116, posted (6 months 1 week 4 days 1 hour ago) and read 25385 times:
Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 111): I think the problem is the tooling. I think workers have to do a lot of the work by hand, and there is still a lot of traveling work.
Travel work on currently-produced frames is said to be close to "norm" (you'll never have zero travel work) and we have seen some newer frames moving almost directly from the line to the paint hangar, implying they have little travel work.
I do not believe the suppliers are all able to deliver 10 shipsets per month so that's clearly slowing the production.
KarelXWB From Netherlands, joined Jul 2012, 1787 posts, RR: 6 Reply 117, posted (6 months 1 week 4 days 1 hour ago) and read 25381 times:
Quoting Stitch (Reply 116): I do not believe the suppliers are all able to deliver 10 shipsets per month so that's clearly slowing the production.
Well, the suppliers are able to deliver 4 frames to Everett and yet Boeing need an extra assembly line? Why not producing those 4 frames on the main assembly line?
Stitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 26718 posts, RR: 83 Reply 118, posted (6 months 1 week 4 days 1 hour ago) and read 25427 times:
Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 117): Well, the suppliers are able to deliver 4 frames to Everett and yet Boeing need an extra assembly line? Why not producing those 4 frames on the main assembly line?
The main line is producing four 787s at a time.
The surge line can't complete a 787 as it only has three positions, so the fourth position on the main line has to interleave frames from the main line and the surge line.
And CHS was built due to the need to protect themselves against the IAM.
KarelXWB From Netherlands, joined Jul 2012, 1787 posts, RR: 6 Reply 119, posted (6 months 1 week 4 days 1 hour ago) and read 25413 times:
Quote: The main line is producing four 787s at a time.
But not a month. In theory, the main line should be able to produce at least 7 frames a month. It was at 3.5 frames a month and Boeing activated the surge line to increase that number to 4 frames a month. So my question is, why can't the main line produce 4 frames a month on itself?
tdscanuck From Canada, joined Jan 2006, 12709 posts, RR: 80 Reply 120, posted (6 months 1 week 3 days 20 hours ago) and read 25358 times:
Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 119): But not a month. In theory, the main line should be able to produce at least 7 frames a month. It was at 3.5 frames a month and Boeing activated the surge line to increase that number to 4 frames a month. So my question is, why can't the main line produce 4 frames a month on itself?
Everybody seems to be mixing up two different issues. There is line capacity (how much a line can produce in theory) and line rate (how much it's producing right now). Boeing has been ramping the production rate for a couple of years and they'll keep ramping. The fact that the main line is currently producing whatever it's doing doesn't mean it can't do 7 per month. However, ramping production rates on aircraft final assembly lines has to be done VERY carefully. Boeing halted production completely on all lines for several months back in the late 90's by trying to ramp too fast and they never ever ever want to have to do that again.
Likewise, *given* that they've got two lines, they should load balance the lines (weighted by each line's capacity) so it's better to have both lines running at partial rate. They want each line (surge, main, and CHS) ramping up together; that is far more effective than running one line from zero to full capacity, then starting the second, etc.
Capt747ret From United States of America, joined Sep 2012, 18 posts, RR: 1 Reply 121, posted (6 months 1 week 3 days 16 hours ago) and read 25298 times:
I read this blog all the time but rarely post so I’ll catch up with this long series of my personal thoughts.
B has a large number of extremely smart people who really know the market and where it’s going. I would never sell them short. Anyone second guessing them will be second guessing themselves.
B is very deliberate about what they do. Some would say that they were too late with the MAX but time will tell and I think I would not bet against B on the MAX or any program. At the end of the day I think that B will prove themselves again.
The two 78 lines and the surge line I believe were created for more than what has been discussed. We only have the -8 and kind of soon the -9. They are still spooling up to what they have publically touted as 10 per month.
B also has stated that they have looked at their supply chain and have put a number on the board that is north of 10. Why not? Primary Everett and SC were created to accommodate 7 each or more per month. That is where B’s efficiency is.
B has stated that the surge line is temporary – maybe. This last word speaks volumes. It gives B huge flexibility and keeps A guessing.
It takes years to increase production and starting now gives them the opportunity to be ready as the 300 enters sunset and the needed increase for the -10. These both will place additional pressure on the 10/month rate
SC was a clean sheet of paper with huge expansion potential. They have also secured additional large acreage around their facility. B is not in the agricultural business.
It seems that the 78 will place the 300 into sunset and fade away the 350-800. Also, the -900 is slipping as is the -1000. B’s trump card on those two and especially the -1000 is the 777-8x&9x. They will have a common pilot rating with an endorsement on the license with the 78. Why buy an A and a B when the asymmetric training and operating costs eat into profitability.
Yes A is doing a revamped 300 which will have a measure of success especially with those carriers that already have this model in their inventory. But in a larger since, A is just pissing against the wind.
What ultimately turns out to be the 350 product line will be facing a better and more efficient B counterpart. A may deliver earlier but the long haul of development and production will favor the 78 & 777x lines.
Some have said that B has been reacting to A’s program. I think that B has been letting A get their program set in stone so as to deliver a far superior product. With the world the way it’s become and the cost of fuel high with a probable trending line only going up for the next few decades. B has done it right.
IMHO B has been looking at a 78 production rate north of 15 per month. What would you say would be the number of 787 orders in the first few months of 78-10 offers? There are now some 800 confirmed with a number yet to be posted like American Airlines. B has not posted their orders while negotiations were in progress with the Allied Pilots Association. Now with the new contract that has just happened, I believe that we will see these orders posted. I would like to read the details pertaining to the 78.
IMHO, the initial -10 orders would reach 3-400 with initial launch orders and then with a steady increase along with her sisters. We will be amazed to watch the order book pass 1500 and 2000. Again don’t sell B short. It takes years of planning to just say that you will go to higher numbers. B knows that the production must balance the orders.
No airline wants to be left out with older, less efficient and less pax desirable planes then your competition.
The AIM is trying to organize the SC workforce. If they do then I see the -10 being built on the surge line. B would build a couple of additional Dreamlifers of the -8F frame to accommodate the -9 and -10 sizes.
Given their “druthers” B would like to build the -10 in SC if nothing more than to save the transportation cost. B doesn’t have to make a commitment to the production location of the -10 for quite a while yet. This gives them time to observe the outcome of the next union election.
XT6Wagon From United States of America, joined Feb 2007, 3132 posts, RR: 4 Reply 122, posted (6 months 1 week 3 days 15 hours ago) and read 25291 times:
Quoting tdscanuck (Reply 120): Likewise, *given* that they've got two lines, they should load balance the lines (weighted by each line's capacity) so it's better to have both lines running at partial rate.
I expect to see the "surge" line stick around for a while even after they get to 7 frames a month on the primary line in Washington. Its just way too much risk reduction to have that space with the tooling setup incase a frame on the main line goes sideways in its build. So depending on where the trouble frame is in the line you either start building frames on the surge or you wheel the trouble frame over there clearing the way for non-trouble frames to keep flowing.
kanban From United States of America, joined Jan 2008, 2467 posts, RR: 21 Reply 123, posted (6 months 1 week 3 days 15 hours ago) and read 25314 times:
To put that in perspective, some components from supplier start to delivery for installation are over 2 1/5 years in the making.. especially if forgings of unique aircraft quality and spec metal are involved. Cargo - pax door buildups generally are in the 1 1/2 year range. Wings are another pacing item.
So a rate increase seen today started over 2 years ago...
7BOEING7 From United States of America, joined Oct 2012, 508 posts, RR: 3 Reply 126, posted (6 months 1 week 3 days 4 hours ago) and read 25301 times:
Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 112): Quoting ual747-600 (Reply 109):Does anyone know why UA N26906 is on the way to KBFI today?
http://flightaware.com/live/flight/N26906
Test flight? Crew training? Some kind of ceremony at Boeing Field? It's not heading to PAE so I don't think something is wrong with the plane.
Actually if there is an "issue" after delivery it could be handled at BFI. They have people there qualified to do the work and available parking. That was UAL's last delivery which only had two flights on it. It doesn't appear to have left (FA) and I haven't heard about any big ceremony. ??????
Stitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 26718 posts, RR: 83 Reply 127, posted (6 months 1 week 3 days 4 hours ago) and read 25553 times:
Quoting ual747-600 (Reply 109): Does anyone know why UA N26906 is on the way to KBFI today?
It's a special Employee Appreciation flight. There is also a tour of the PAE factory, which is why the plane flew to Seattle.
KarelXWB From Netherlands, joined Jul 2012, 1787 posts, RR: 6 Reply 129, posted (6 months 1 week 3 days 2 hours ago) and read 25510 times:
Quoting tdscanuck (Reply 120): Everybody seems to be mixing up two different issues. There is line capacity (how much a line can produce in theory) and line rate (how much it's producing right now). Boeing has been ramping the production rate for a couple of years and they'll keep ramping. The fact that the main line is currently producing whatever it's doing doesn't mean it can't do 7 per month. However, ramping production rates on aircraft final assembly lines has to be done VERY carefully. Boeing halted production completely on all lines for several months back in the late 90's by trying to ramp too fast and they never ever ever want to have to do that again.
Likewise, *given* that they've got two lines, they should load balance the lines (weighted by each line's capacity) so it's better to have both lines running at partial rate. They want each line (surge, main, and CHS) ramping up together; that is far more effective than running one line from zero to full capacity, then starting the second, etc.
I was mixing things up indeed, thanks for the clarification.
sweair From Sweden, joined Nov 2011, 1551 posts, RR: 0 Reply 130, posted (6 months 1 week 3 days 1 hour ago) and read 25503 times:
It has been a bit slow on B1s lately? Sure many of the frames were Chinese and now stored, but there are a few better customers on flight line? I get the feeling pre flight and flight testing is not up to speed just yet.
KarelXWB From Netherlands, joined Jul 2012, 1787 posts, RR: 6 Reply 131, posted (6 months 1 week 3 days 1 hour ago) and read 25531 times:
Let's have a look:
- LN44 / LN50 / LN54 / LN57 and LN60 are ready for delivery but I have no idea why it's taking so long (except for Air India).
- LN55: should have been in the air by now?
- LN59, LN62 and LN72 are just outside, it's too soon for their B1 flight
- LN78: no rush as it is scheduled for a January delivery
- LN80: B1 flight today
- LN82 and LN83 inside the paint hangar so it's too soon for their B1 flight
COEWR787 From United States of America, joined Mar 2005, 305 posts, RR: 4 Reply 132, posted (6 months 1 week 3 days 1 hour ago) and read 25515 times:
Quoting United787 (Reply 100): In other news, I just checked to see if UA had put their #2 (N26906) in service and saw that it has been doing IAH-SFO, IAH-EWR and IAH-ORD.
I was on it doing EWR - IAH - EWR over the weekend. Had two wonderful flights, though both were delayed due to servicing issues.
I guess being an observer one gets impatient on progress. There was some serious action at the end of October however.
Anyway it could be good to prepare frames in advance, gives a bit of slack in the future? 5 frames a month plus a backlog of reworked frames, the priority should be to shrink this backlog?
KarelXWB From Netherlands, joined Jul 2012, 1787 posts, RR: 6 Reply 134, posted (6 months 1 week 3 days ago) and read 25521 times:
Quote: 5 frames a month plus a backlog of reworked frames, the priority should be to shrink this backlog?
Boeing is working on it. 9 frames are undergoing change incorporation: 5 inside the EMC, 1 inside the 40-24 building and 3 outside the EMC. But the output is slowing down because almost all late builds have finished change incorporation and there is more work to do on the early builds.
7BOEING7 From United States of America, joined Oct 2012, 508 posts, RR: 3 Reply 135, posted (6 months 1 week 3 days ago) and read 25521 times:
Quoting sweair (Reply 130): It has been a bit slow on B1s lately? Sure many of the frames were Chinese and now stored, but there are a few better customers on flight line? I get the feeling pre flight and flight testing is not up to speed just yet.
The paperwork for preflight and in flight checks was set prior to certification. The personnel know what to do and how to do it. Any major delays in those two areas are due to the airplane not being "ready to fly". When the flight or ground tests fail it takes time to fix the problem ie., a delay. In the flight regime some airplanes recently have needed only two flights prior to delivery--LOT ZA270 & UAL ZA290--while others have taken considerably more--ETH ZA261 has flown 8 times so far. The production flight test crew knows what they're doing, sometimes the airplane just doesn't "behave". In the factory the systems are all tested individually but until you roll it out the door and test the "whole" airplane on the ground and inflight you never know what you are going to get. Most issues are minor it just takes time to fix them. Some airplanes are just built better than others.
NYC777 From United States of America, joined Jun 2004, 5155 posts, RR: 49 Reply 142, posted (6 months 1 week 2 days 23 hours ago) and read 25567 times:
Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 141): So Boeing moved LN21 from 40-24 to the EMC. Interesting.
Not really. It was in 40-24 for a long time undergoing change incorporation but I don't think it can complete change incorporation there so they had to trasfer it to EMC to finish it off. They also want to make sure the space is available for use by the surge line as needed. I don't really expect any other change incorporation activities to take place in 40-24.
I guess now with China Southerns frames stored until CAAC will sort the certification issue Aeromexico/LN96 could be first to get the 787, their first frame should load into the assembly line before the end of this year. Maybe for a Jan-Feb delivery? At least 4 weeks for FAL and then another 4 or 5 weeks until its ready to deliver. Probably earliest around end of January or more likely February.
Check the 787 blog, it lists all frames up to LN100, no dates however but I think new frames get loaded 1 time a week so parts should arrive next week and FAL start the week after that. ILFC should not be a problem with finances.
petera380 From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 324 posts, RR: 0 Reply 147, posted (6 months 1 week 2 days 8 hours ago) and read 25495 times:
starrion From United States of America, joined Jul 2003, 1081 posts, RR: 2 Reply 148, posted (6 months 1 week 2 days 4 hours ago) and read 25484 times:
Quoting sweair (Reply 145): until CAAC will sort the certification issue
Is CAAC "sorting" the certification issue or is it on hold for political reasons? I think Boeing is storing the chinese frames with the expectation that they will be there for a good long time.
In a related question, how much distruption would it be for Boring to pull the subsequent frames out of the firing order under the cert issue is taken up?
tdscanuck From Canada, joined Jan 2006, 12709 posts, RR: 80 Reply 149, posted (6 months 1 week 2 days ago) and read 25486 times:
Quoting starrion (Reply 148): In a related question, how much distruption would it be for Boring to pull the subsequent frames out of the firing order under the cert issue is taken up?
It depends how far out the frames you want to pull out are. Firing orders typically aren't nailed down until about 6 months ahead so anything out beyond that is probably no big deal. Within that window it would depend if you can pull the variable components (interiors, BFE, etc.) forward and how much of the customer engineering is complete.
United787 From United States of America, joined May 2005, 2346 posts, RR: 1 Reply 151, posted (6 months 1 week 1 day 6 hours ago) and read 25438 times:
As always, thank you to All Things 787 (NYC777) and others for the information that is summarized here. For more specific information on the aircraft in production, I recommend going to http://nyc787.blogspot.com/
DELIVERED TO DATE: 35 Aircraft to 8 Airlines
DELIVERIES PRIOR TO NOVEMBER
NH-16; JL-6; AI-3; ET-3; LA-2; UA–2; QR-1
NOVEMBER DELIVERIES TO DATE
L/N 64 - A7-BCL – 11/06/2012- QR #2
L/N 61 - SP-LRA - 11/09/2012 - LO #1
NEXT IN LINE FOR DELIVERY Tentative - Subject to Change
L/N 57 - A7-BCA – 11/xx/2012 - QR #3
L/N 44 - ET-AOP - 11/xx/2012 - ET #4
L/N 50 - N20902 - 11/xx/2012 - UA #3
L/N 80 - CC-BBC - 12/xx/2012 - LA #3
L/N 55 - N26905 – 12/xx/2012 - UA #4 Awaiting first flight
L/N 62 - A7-BCK - 12/xx/2012 - QR #4 Awaiting first flight
L/N 59 - JA817A - 12/xx/2012 - NH #17 Awaiting first flight
L/N 83 - JA818A - 12/xx/2012 - NH #18 Awaiting first flight
L/N 45 - N26901 – 12/xx/2012 – UA #5 Awaiting first flight
L/N 82 - A7-BC? – 12/xx/2012 - QR #5 Awaiting first flight
L/N 78 - SP-LRB – 1/xx/2013 - LO #2 Awaiting first flight
In addition, there are three airlines that aren’t accepting deliveries of completed aircraft due to financing or political/certification issues: 4 for AI; 3 for CZ; & 2 for HU.
starrion From United States of America, joined Jul 2003, 1081 posts, RR: 2 Reply 159, posted (6 months 4 days 7 hours ago) and read 25404 times:
FTA: HNA Group chairman Chen Feng previously said the carrier may change its 787 order to the 747-8 aircraft.
Wow. Now that some change incorporation. Exactly how previously?
So if both carriers frames are going to be sitting there until March, it makes sense that Boeing is taping them up. If they have the intervening months to finish all the tasks, that should be a fair little fleet to fly out once the paperwork is finished.
frigatebird From Netherlands, joined Jun 2008, 1195 posts, RR: 1 Reply 160, posted (6 months 4 days 5 hours ago) and read 25375 times:
Quoting starrion (Reply 159): FTA: HNA Group chairman Chen Feng previously said the carrier may change its 787 order to the 747-8 aircraft.
Wow. Now that some change incorporation. Exactly how previously?
Well, they were said to be behind a MoU for 15 748i's at Le Bourget last year. They did order 10 A380s, which they now apparently want to cancel. So, perhaps 748i's instead of 787s and A350s instead of A380s? I doubt Airbus will allow this just like that...
Quoting starrion (Reply 159): So if both carriers frames are going to be sitting there until March, it makes sense that Boeing is taping them up.
If it is indeed gonna be Q2, May-June will be more likely.
Too bad for those almost finished 787s, I´ve noticed Charleston has been allocated mostly AI, CZ and Hainan 787s, with the slower pace there this seems a smart move. Hope they have enough parking space there though...
By chance, I saw it on FR24 on my phone. However, it shows a LGG (Liege) stopover which does not seem to be correct. Anyone knows why? There is a 777F (ET3715) that did LGG-ADD and is a few minutes ahead of ET-AOP on teh FR24 radar view...
Two B-1's, three deliveries and a C-1, guess the wx wasn't as big an issue as some people keep wanting to make it.
ZA538 hasn't even done it's B-2 flight. It had an abortive B-1 then flew a B-1 profile on its second flight and has yet to fly a B-2 before it can fly a C-1 assuming there are no issues with the B-2 flight
7BOEING7 From United States of America, joined Oct 2012, 508 posts, RR: 3 Reply 177, posted (6 months 2 days 20 hours ago) and read 23818 times:
Quoting NYC777 (Reply 175): ZA538 hasn't even done it's B-2 flight. It had an abortive B-1 then flew a B-1 profile on its second flight and has yet to fly a B-2 before it can fly a C-1 assuming there are no issues with the B-2 flight
First let's get our nomenclature correct here--the first production flight of a Boeing airplane is a B-1 (whether it completes the full B-1 profile or not), the second flight is a B-2 (whether its up and down to correct B-1 squawks or a full B-1 profile because it didn't complete the B-1 flight). The flight today (that I guess never made into the air) filed for what appeared to be a full profile which generally doesn't occur on subsequent flights except for the C-1. In the words of T. E. Lawrence "nothing is written" and especially the requirement for a "B-2" flight after every "B-1" flight.
NYC777 From United States of America, joined Jun 2004, 5155 posts, RR: 49 Reply 178, posted (6 months 2 days 19 hours ago) and read 23680 times:
Today's flight, if it occurred, wasn't going to be a customer test flight flown by customer pilots. Boeing would still need to fly a B-2 profile before moving on to customer flights assuming there aren't any issues that need to be resolved and subsequent Boeing test flights flown to validate fixes.
7BOEING7 From United States of America, joined Oct 2012, 508 posts, RR: 3 Reply 179, posted (6 months 2 days 17 hours ago) and read 23614 times:
Quoting NYC777 (Reply 178): Today's flight, if it occurred, wasn't going to be a customer test flight flown by customer pilots. Boeing would still need to fly a B-2 profile before moving on to customer flights assuming there aren't any issues that need to be resolved and subsequent Boeing test flights flown to validate fixes.
I guess you need to tell Boeing that they need to recall QTR ZA463 (64), ANA ZA511 (63), LOT ZA270 (61), UAL ZA290 (77) and UAL ZA 286 (50) as they all flew only the B-1 before putting the customer on board for the C-1. Boeing could legally as far as the FAA is concerned and with customer agreement, deliver any airplane after a successful B-1 flight only.
Quoting 7BOEING7 (Reply 175): Yep, looks like UAL ZA286 (50) will be heading out and LAN ZA538 (80) should be off on its C-1 soon.
Two B-1's, three deliveries and a C-1, guess the wx wasn't as big an issue as some people keep wanting to make it.
I guess flight plans aren't worth the paper they're printed on--only one B-1, two deliveries
mham001 From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 3001 posts, RR: 3 Reply 187, posted (6 months 2 days 2 hours ago) and read 22521 times:
Quoting NYC777 (Reply 180): Dude, what's with your attitude?
Maybe that you directly contradicted his (apparent) professional knowledge, in which it appears he is absolutely correct. I know I was getting confused reading it all. The proper thing to do would be to acknowledge the mistake and move on.
starrion From United States of America, joined Jul 2003, 1081 posts, RR: 2 Reply 189, posted (6 months 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 21472 times:
Boeing has gotten a nice bump recently from the rework frame deliveries.
It looks like that will be coming to an end soon. There are only five of the later build frames (other than air india and the chinese) left to deliver. After that everything is going to have to come from the teens and twenties which have months of work per frame. I recall from a thread that each of the early build frames will need five months of time at the EMC before beinag able to be delivered?
If that is the case then the 2013 deliveries will mostly be new build with 1 or 2 units of rework planes per month...
NYC777 From United States of America, joined Jun 2004, 5155 posts, RR: 49 Reply 190, posted (6 months 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 21426 times:
Boeing has gotten a nice bump recently from the rework frame deliveries.
It looks like that will be coming to an end soon. There are only five of the later build frames (other than air india and the chinese) left to deliver. After that everything is going to have to come from the teens and twenties which have months of work per frame. I recall from a thread that each of the early build frames will need five months of time at the EMC before beinag able to be delivered?
If that is the case then the 2013 deliveries will mostly be new build with 1 or 2 units of rework planes per month...
Yes I think that sounds about right but it also depends on when the customers want them and if they're going to be delivered to the original customers. Right now my sources are telling me that they're still allocated to the carriers listed on my tables.
Rheinbote From Germany, joined May 2006, 1956 posts, RR: 52 Reply 194, posted (6 months 10 hours ago) and read 20317 times:
Quoting flightsimer (Reply 107): We won't know what the true output of each assembly line is until they increase above 10 frames a year. Just because they have decided to use three lines instead of one for the 10/month,
The 'surge line' in 40-24 is soon going to be turned into a dedicated 787-9 final assembly line, starting with LN126.
Quoting starrion (Reply 148): Is CAAC "sorting" the certification issue or is it on hold for political reasons? I think Boeing is storing the chinese frames with the expectation that they will be there for a good long time.
Word is that China holds Boeing's 787s hostage over FAA refusal to certify the AVIC ARJ21...
Stitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 26718 posts, RR: 83 Reply 195, posted (6 months 8 hours ago) and read 20220 times:
Quoting Rheinbote (Reply 194): Word is that China holds Boeing's 787s hostage over FAA refusal to certify the AVIC ARJ21...
As of last week, COMAC announced another major EIS delay for the ARJ21 because of “inexperience in certification in terms of methods and infrastructure,” according to COMAC VP Luo Ronghuai.
The ARJ21 has only completed about 80% of the ground tests required for CAAC certification and is just now starting fatigue testing. They have also completed some 2800 flight hours. CAAC certification is not expected before 1H 2013 and first deliveries are not planned until 2014.
As for the FAA, they have finished training pilots, and they will come to China at the end of November to test the ARJ21. And during tests of the ARJ21, China had to turn to foreign countries for help on a number of issues, including its resistance to electromagnetic radiation, protection against lightning and electromagnetic compatibility.
So there are no grounds for China to hold up the 787's certification because of the ARJ21, but then this is China, so...
United787 From United States of America, joined May 2005, 2346 posts, RR: 1 Reply 196, posted (6 months 6 hours ago) and read 19970 times:
I assume that since the B-1 for L/N 62 keeps getting postponed, that the weather isn't great as predicted.
As always, thank you to All Things 787 (NYC777) and others for the information that is summarized here. For more specific information on the aircraft in production, I recommend going to http://nyc787.blogspot.com/
DELIVERED TO DATE: 38 Aircraft to 8 Airlines
DELIVERIES PRIOR TO NOVEMBER
NH-16; JL-6; AI-3; ET-3; LA-2; UA–2; QR-1
NOVEMBER DELIVERIES TO DATE
L/N 64 - A7-BCL – 11/06/2012- QR #2
L/N 61 - SP-LRA - 11/09/2012 - LO #1
L/N 44 - ET-AOP - 11/19/2012 - ET #4
L/N 57 - A7-BCA – 11/20/2012 - QR #3
L/N 50 - N20902 - 11/20/2012 - UA #3
NEXT IN LINE FOR DELIVERY Tentative - Subject to Change
L/N 80 - CC-BBC - xx/xx/2012 - LA #3
L/N 55 - N26905 – 12/xx/2012 - UA #4
L/N 62 - A7-BCK - 12/xx/2012 - QR #4 Awaiting first flight
L/N 59 - JA817A - 12/xx/2012 - NH #17 Awaiting first flight
L/N 83 - JA818A - 12/xx/2012 - NH #18 Awaiting first flight
L/N 45 - N26901 – 12/xx/2012 – UA #5 Awaiting first flight
L/N 82 - A7-BCC – 12/xx/2012 - QR #5 Awaiting first flight
L/N 78 - SP-LRB – 1/xx/2013 - LO #2 Awaiting first flight
L/N 52 - N26903 – 1/xx/2013 – UA #6 Awaiting first flight
L/N 86 – SP-LRC – 1/xx/2013 – LO #3 Awaiting first flight
In addition, there are three airlines that aren’t accepting deliveries of completed aircraft due to financing or political/certification issues: 4 for AI; 2 for CZ; & 2 for HU.
Rheinbote From Germany, joined May 2006, 1956 posts, RR: 52 Reply 199, posted (5 months 4 weeks 1 day 23 hours ago) and read 19222 times:
Quoting Stitch (Reply 195): So there are no grounds for China to hold up the 787's certification because of the ARJ21
Stitch, you may find that press statements by the Chinese are quite inconsistent. Let us generously assume that this is due to a general lack of PR communication skills.
March 2012:
"[COMAC President Jin Zhuanglong] added that COMAC's jet liner ARJ21-700 has passed all [...] fatigue tests required for license application [...]" http://www.ecns.cn/cns-wire/2012/03-07/9660.shtml
All that is needed may just be a token type certificate so that the project can be terminated or re-oriented without losing face.
But this is a 787 trhead, so let's carry on with the Dreamliner
NYC777 From United States of America, joined Jun 2004, 5155 posts, RR: 49 Reply 200, posted (5 months 3 weeks 6 days 23 hours ago) and read 17731 times:
Just put a new 787 update summarizing the 787 update call from this afternoon.
ETinCaribe From Ethiopia, joined Dec 2009, 621 posts, RR: 0 Reply 201, posted (5 months 3 weeks 6 days 19 hours ago) and read 17329 times:
Quoting dkny (Reply 183): I am sure ET is happy with the 787. They have been sending it on long missions to IAD and YYZ. It has even done ADD-YYZ non stop a couple of times.
I don't know for sure but I would think that they are fairly happy with it. And whatever issues they may have, we would not know about them as they will not publicize it; very professional bunch down in ADD, IMHO.
Capt747ret From United States of America, joined Sep 2012, 18 posts, RR: 1 Reply 202, posted (5 months 3 weeks 6 days 17 hours ago) and read 17400 times:
Concerning the 787-10; IMHO, yes it will be offered and built. That is a no brainer. When? I’ve heard soon, next few days and in a few weeks. I believe it will officially happen between the 7th and the 9th of January.
Why? Just look at the calendar. It’s the Holidays and B will get less press. The week after New Year’s is ripe for it. Earlier in the week yields more business days to create excitement and for those reporters that know nothing about aviation to suddenly become experts and put pen to paper.
In the meantime, B is refining the -10 and lining up launch customers. They want the publicity just as much as B does, I would too.
Neither A nor B can compete with Santa. All eyes are also focused on 1/1/13. Just let the Rose Bowl and all else happen, then B will be in the lime-light.
Additionally, there probably will be a large number of new orders for the -10. They will be figured into the ’13 count. What a great way for B to start the New Year!
It all has to do with timing and B knows it well. In the meantime enjoy the Holidays and its tangential sporting events. The -10 will have its day and it will be huge. Just think of the number of biz Jets in town for the launch!
Would anyone venture a guess on the number of new orders that B will announce on that day? British Airways, Lufthansa, Singapore, ILFC, Emirates, Who else? What do you think? Will we see any new customers?
Ruscoe From Australia, joined Aug 1999, 1408 posts, RR: 2 Reply 203, posted (5 months 3 weeks 6 days 13 hours ago) and read 17106 times:
Good post.
I love your positive confidence, and I agree the 10 will happen.
I am wondering though if Boeing might think they can maximise sales by waiting a bit, otherwise I think a lot of the 10 sales might be conversions. Just a thought.
parapente From United Kingdom, joined Mar 2006, 1316 posts, RR: 10 Reply 204, posted (5 months 3 weeks 6 days 10 hours ago) and read 16914 times:
787 deliveries........
"Boeing has already delivered 35 787s through the first 11 months of the year, meeting the low-end of the company's guidance of 35 to 42 aircraft deliveries in 2012." Woweee
You mean a whole 35 aircraft - oh and just the other 850 to go then....(assuming no new orders or option take up's - there will be many I assure you)
A -10? Well Boeing has spoken.
"The market will tell us really when that is, but really we're looking at the back end of this decade," Loftis says.
So a first aircraft EIS 2020/1? I would say yes - at the earliest. At least by then they will have worked out how to make this plane in (real) numbers.
So Airbus has approx 8 (10?) years to figure out an alternative cos sure as hell the 358 ain't it. But the "9" is not far off for those wanting decent range/ payload. But fundamentally as stated by others in a different forum.The min they will need to do is create a 787 sized wing for the 350 and hope that some fancy new GTF engine is on the blocks to give them a chance - other wise they will be out of the 330 double segment.(in 10 yeras time).
flightsimer From United States of America, joined Aug 2009, 409 posts, RR: 1 Reply 205, posted (5 months 3 weeks 6 days 7 hours ago) and read 16641 times:
They said "this decade", at the latest, that would be 2019, 6 years max, not 8-10. Since its a simple stretch, I can see it being moved up to the 2016-2017 time frame due to costumer demand.
Stitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 26718 posts, RR: 83 Reply 206, posted (5 months 3 weeks 6 days 6 hours ago) and read 16459 times:
If the Asian Aerospace show was still running, I'd have said that might have been a logical launch place for the 787-10 if they were securing orders from airlines like SQ and CX.
I guess they could wait for Le Bourget.
Or wait for Airbus Commercial to announce their 2012 results in late January / early February.
Mayohoo From United States of America, joined Apr 2012, 7 posts, RR: 0 Reply 207, posted (5 months 3 weeks 6 days 5 hours ago) and read 16315 times:
IF B achieves its 10/m by the end of 2013, then by end of 2019 it will have burned through the 850 orders it has currently.
2011-12= 45
2013 at 5/m and 7/m= 72
2014=120
2015=120
2016=120
2017=120
2018=120
2019=120
Plus 25 reworked aircraft by 2015
Total 862
One would presume that they would like to have 3-4 years backlog at any one time so they should have room for perhaps 360-480 787s to sell through 2019. They could probably fit the -10 into one of the 3 lines (an 8, a 9 and a 10 line?)
NYC777 From United States of America, joined Jun 2004, 5155 posts, RR: 49 Reply 208, posted (5 months 3 weeks 6 days 3 hours ago) and read 16038 times:
I just put up a new blog post with the updated firing order for LN 101 to LN 115.
United787 From United States of America, joined May 2005, 2346 posts, RR: 1 Reply 210, posted (5 months 3 weeks 5 days 18 hours ago) and read 15310 times:
I think we might see L/N 80 - CC-BBC - LA #3 delivered in the next few days
That is correct. The fourth 787 for LAN is L/N 113 CC-BBD and will be assembled in Charleston. On a side note, LAN expects to receive its first B-787-9 during 2014.
NYC777 From United States of America, joined Jun 2004, 5155 posts, RR: 49 Reply 212, posted (5 months 3 weeks 5 days 7 hours ago) and read 14737 times:
Quoting SCL767 (Reply 211): That is correct. The fourth 787 for LAN is L/N 113 CC-BBD and will be assembled in Charleston. On a side note, LAN expects to receive its first B-787-9 during 2014.
Can you confirm that ZA538 (LN 80) will be delivered this month? right now it's in the Everett paint hangar though I don't know why.
xaapb From Mexico, joined Jan 2005, 374 posts, RR: 6 Reply 213, posted (5 months 3 weeks 5 days 6 hours ago) and read 14594 times:
Good morning
Anyone knows why now LN96 will go for TUI Travel (Thomson)? LN96 was supposed to be ILFC / Aeromexico and it appears that LN115 will be the first for ILFC/ Aeromexico.
7BOEING7 From United States of America, joined Oct 2012, 508 posts, RR: 3 Reply 214, posted (5 months 3 weeks 5 days 6 hours ago) and read 14578 times:
Quoting NYC777 (Reply 212): Can you confirm that ZA538 (LN 80) will be delivered this month? right now it's in the Everett paint hangar though I don't know why.
There might have been some cuetomer issues with the paint and due to the tight scheduling of the paint hangar this may have been the only opprotunity to correct them.
starrion From United States of America, joined Jul 2003, 1081 posts, RR: 2 Reply 215, posted (5 months 3 weeks 5 days 6 hours ago) and read 14570 times:
Quoting United787 (Reply 210): I think we might see L/N 80 - CC-BBC - LA #3 delivered in the next few days
I presume that means that Air India got an insufficient funds notice from the bank again?
NYC777 From United States of America, joined Jun 2004, 5155 posts, RR: 49 Reply 216, posted (5 months 3 weeks 5 days 5 hours ago) and read 14567 times:
Quoting starrion (Reply 215): I presume that means that Air India got an insufficient funds notice from the bank again?
According to my source, one AI 787 is to be delivered by the end of this month. This info was as of last week but with AI who knows.
Quoting xaapb (Reply 213): Anyone knows why now LN96 will go for TUI Travel (Thomson)? LN96 was supposed to be ILFC / Aeromexico and it appears that LN115 will be the first for ILFC/ Aeromexico.
There are still occaisional re-allocation of frames depending on customer needs even at this late stage.
NYC777 From United States of America, joined Jun 2004, 5155 posts, RR: 49 Reply 218, posted (5 months 3 weeks 5 days 5 hours ago) and read 14469 times:
Quoting xaapb (Reply 217): I see, well thats sad, we were expecting the first 787 for sometime between March or April, I guess this will pushback the date maybe untill July.
aeroblogger From India, joined Dec 2011, 1363 posts, RR: 0 Reply 219, posted (5 months 3 weeks 5 days 1 hour ago) and read 14079 times:
Quoting NYC777 (Reply 216): According to my source, one AI 787 is to be delivered by the end of this month. This info was as of last week but with AI who knows.
We're unlikely to see an AI delivery this week.
Airports 2012: IXE HYD DEL BLR BOM CCU KNU KTM BKK SIN ICN LAX BUR SFO PHX IAH ORD EWR PHL PVD BOS FRA MUC IST
NYC777 From United States of America, joined Jun 2004, 5155 posts, RR: 49 Reply 220, posted (5 months 3 weeks 4 days 22 hours ago) and read 13770 times:
Quoting aeroblogger (Reply 219): We're unlikely to see an AI delivery this week.
NYC777 From United States of America, joined Jun 2004, 5155 posts, RR: 49 Reply 221, posted (5 months 3 weeks 4 days 4 hours ago) and read 13097 times:
Matt Cawby is reporting that ZA382 (LN43, B-2727) is out of the South Ramp storage and is at the fuel dock. I'm not sure what this means but I'm going out on the a limb and saying that this is preparation to resume pre-delivery tests and actually deliver the aircraft to China Southern. Can anyone corroborate? Also Boeing may be planning to fly the aircraft to a long term storage facility like Marana or Victorville.
NYC777 From United States of America, joined Jun 2004, 5155 posts, RR: 49 Reply 222, posted (5 months 3 weeks 4 days 2 hours ago) and read 12777 times:
Looks like ZA538 (LN 80, CC-BBC) will be flying a customer flight tohis afternoon. First 787 activity since the past weekend.
7BOEING7 From United States of America, joined Oct 2012, 508 posts, RR: 3 Reply 223, posted (5 months 3 weeks 4 days 1 hour ago) and read 12692 times:
Quoting NYC777 (Reply 222): Looks like ZA538 (LN 80, CC-BBC) will be flying a customer flight tohis afternoon. First 787 activity since the past weekend.
Capt747ret From United States of America, joined Sep 2012, 18 posts, RR: 1 Reply 225, posted (5 months 3 weeks 3 days 19 hours ago) and read 12092 times:
NYC777 From United States of America, joined Jun 2004, 5155 posts, RR: 49 Reply 227, posted (5 months 3 weeks 2 days 2 hours ago) and read 10944 times:
ZA271 (LN 80, SP-LRB) is off on its B-1 flight today.
SCL767 From Chile, joined Feb 2006, 8270 posts, RR: 5 Reply 228, posted (5 months 3 weeks 1 day 20 hours ago) and read 10492 times:
Quoting NYC777 (Reply 212): Can you confirm that ZA538 (LN 80) will be delivered this month? right now it's in the Everett paint hangar though I don't know why.
Hopefully CC-BBC will be delivered to LAN next week so that the SCL-LAX route can operate with B-787 within the next few weeks. Boeing just continue to deliver brand new B-767-316ERs to LAN!
Wx was questionable but they're airborne now. If it "flies straight" we should have two QTR (ZA462 & ZA464) customer flights in the next week or so with delivery before the end of the month.
starrion From United States of America, joined Jul 2003, 1081 posts, RR: 2 Reply 233, posted (5 months 3 weeks ago) and read 8511 times:
Alex, I'll take what is
Quoting NYC777 (Reply 221): Also Boeing may be planning to fly the aircraft to a long term storage facility like Marana or Victorville.
Quoting 7BOEING7 (Reply 232): Wx was questionable but they're airborne now. If it "flies straight" we should have two QTR (ZA462 & ZA464) customer flights in the next week or so with delivery before the end of the month.
How many frames can they push through the IFE process at once? Will QTR accept the frames before they have a place to get the work done?
NYC777 From United States of America, joined Jun 2004, 5155 posts, RR: 49 Reply 234, posted (5 months 2 weeks 6 days 22 hours ago) and read 8214 times:
Quoting starrion (Reply 233): How many frames can they push through the IFE process at once? Will QTR accept the frames before they have a place to get the work done?
Qatar has been accepting airfrmes and sending them down to Victorville one at a time. Though it might be etnirely plausible that they have to do this only for the first few frames but I'm not sure when that's going to be of if it'll happen. Just so weird that they have to ferry them down to VCV for this work and not have it down in Everett.
NYC777 From United States of America, joined Jun 2004, 5155 posts, RR: 49 Reply 235, posted (5 months 2 weeks 6 days 3 hours ago) and read 7504 times:
Boeing is planning another B-1 flight today. This time for ZA510 (LN 59, JA817A) for ANA. It was supposed to earlier but is delayed until 4:10pm local time due to low ceilings. Hopefully it should get off today.
ZA239 (LN 60, VT-ANK) made its 6th flight today. I don't know if this is preparation for delivery or not. Also I've been told that this plane will be the next to deliver even though ZA238 (LN 54, VT-ANJ) hasn't been delivered and is still on the CHS flightline. I don't know why the delivery positions have been switched even though it appears that both aircraft are ready to be delivered to Air India.
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But it will open up hubbing for them in Chile that otherwise either wouldn't happen or would happen elsewhere. I also expect the TAM division to also see new long haul. With the 787? Eventually. Just when... . I'll have to admit I was thinking more the Chile LAN and TAM for the 787's near term prospects. While I hope the other LAN's show high potential (Argentina, Equador, and Colombia), I just do not see them having the need for the 787 yet.
Without a surge line too... But alas, production needs to smooth out before that happens. 
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I doubt Airbus will allow this just like that... 
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