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Fall 2012 Aircraft Values And Lease Pricing  
User currently offlineLAXintl From United States of America, joined May 2000, 25166 posts, RR: 48
Posted (1 year 9 months 4 weeks ago) and read 7735 times:

Back by request, here is an update on aircraft valuations and market lease rates.

Below values are estimated current market value (in USD) based on the oldest to newest airframes, along with sample monthly lease rates based also on oldest to newest airframes for many common models.

A319 – $12.0-34.4M, $120-260,000
A320 – $4.0 - 40.5M, $65-300,000
A321 – $20.0 - 48.5M, $180-365,000
A330-200 – $40.0 - 88.5M, $400-830,000
A340-300 – $8.0 -55.0M, $180-490,000
B737-300 – $1.8 – 6.0M, $40-90,000
B737-700 - $13.0 - 36.0M, $140-290,000
B737-800 - $17.0 - 44.5M, $190-350,000
B737-900ER - $33.5 - 48.0M, $290-390,000
B747-400 – $12.0 – 50.0M, $220-550,000
B757-200 – $6.0 – 21.0M, $100-220,000
B767-300ER – $10.0 – 61.5M, $170-460,000
B777-200ER – $43.0 – 118.0M, $450-950,000
B777-300ER – $93.0 – 158.0M, $850-1,400,000
MD-11 - $8.0 – 13.0M , $150-210,000
MD-82 - $0.7 - 2.2M, $25-48,000
CRJ200 – $1.8 - 6.5M, $35-85,000
CRJ700 – $10.5 – 22.5M, $105-225,000
CRJ900 - $13.0 – 25.0M, $135-250,000
Q400 – $10.0 – 19.5M, $120-220,000
ERJ145 – $4.0 – 8.9M, $45-105,000
EMB170 – $14.4 – 26.2M, $140-240,000
EMB190 – $20.7 – 32.6M, $195-285,000
ATR-72 – $6.8 – 18.1M, $85-180,000


The grand bargain remains the MD-80 series. You can own your own for mere $700,000 or a $25,000 monthly lease   


Information is derived from actual transactions along with market valuations and is current as of September 2012.


Sources: IBA/Ascend

=


From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
52 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlinecapri From United Kingdom, joined Sep 2003, 449 posts, RR: 1
Reply 1, posted (1 year 9 months 4 weeks ago) and read 7753 times:

wow, I am sure the airlines hit the wall when their yields in first and business class are very low because if you go by published economy fares, there is no way you make it , especially when you add all the extras (fuel, personnel, etc..) to the monthly lease

User currently offlinePHX787 From Japan, joined Mar 2012, 7474 posts, RR: 18
Reply 2, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 6 days 22 hours ago) and read 7753 times:

Quoting LAXintl (Thread starter):
A340-300 – $8.0 -55.0M, $180-490,000

Oh god, this will probably quicken the scrapping rates of the 343   



次は、渋谷、渋谷。出口は、右側です。電車とホームの間は広く開いておりますので、足元に注意下さい。
User currently offlineLufthansa From Christmas Island, joined May 1999, 3213 posts, RR: 10
Reply 3, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 6 days 10 hours ago) and read 7762 times:

Very Interesting indeed.

Do we have a price for the Fokker 100? these are becoming very popular for mining operations in Australia with the fleet growing all the time, and I'm wondering with its high tail configuration if the MD-80 would also be well suited to this kind of work, but offering a capacity boost?


User currently offlinekhpn From United States of America, joined Sep 2010, 155 posts, RR: 0
Reply 4, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 6 days 9 hours ago) and read 7754 times:

wow, what a great collection of information, thanks for sharing!

User currently offlinelightsaber From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 13018 posts, RR: 100
Reply 5, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 6 days 9 hours ago) and read 7759 times:
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Thank you for these numbers. I always enjoy seeing them and find them interesting.

Quoting LAXintl (Thread starter):
B747-400 – $12.0 – 50.0M, $220-550,000
Quoting LAXintl (Thread starter):
B777-200ER – $43.0 – 118.0M, $450-950,000
B777-300ER – $93.0 – 158.0M, $850-1,400,000

How the mightly have fallen. A 77E sells/leases for more than a 744.

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 2):
Oh god, this will probably quicken the scrapping rates of the 343

   They are worth quite a bit as A333 parts.   I expect the A345 and A346 to trail by only a few years.

But the same is true of the 733.   


Lightsaber



Societies that achieve a critical mass of ideas achieve self sustaining growth; others stagnate.
User currently onlineKaran69 From India, joined Oct 2004, 2887 posts, RR: 18
Reply 6, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 6 days 7 hours ago) and read 7756 times:

Thanks for the figures

Any idea of the 330-300 figures?

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 5):
They are worth quite a bit as A333 parts

   But to add to that the lower rates have enabled airlines like EK to renew leases on their 343s and keep them flying till replacements start arriving

Karan


User currently offlinebjorn14 From Norway, joined Feb 2010, 3421 posts, RR: 2
Reply 7, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 6 days 4 hours ago) and read 7752 times:

Quoting LAXintl (Thread starter):
The grand bargain remains the MD-80 series. You can own your own for mere $700,000 or a $25,000 monthly lease

That's interesting as G4 seems to abandoning them un favor of 319s which are higher valued than the 320s.



"I want to know the voice of God the rest is just details" --A. Einstein
User currently offlineLAXintl From United States of America, joined May 2000, 25166 posts, RR: 48
Reply 8, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 6 days ago) and read 7755 times:

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 2):
Oh god, this will probably quicken the scrapping rates of the 343

Yes likely. The secondary market seems near dead on the model. Several operators have frames for sale without takers.

Quoting Lufthansa (Reply 3):
Do we have a price for the Fokker 100?

Most recent valuation I could find was from April 2012.

$2.3 – 3.7M, $50-70,000

Seems with over 80-frames parked its not a model that has wide interest.

Quoting khpn (Reply 4):
wow, what a great collection of information, thanks for sharing!
Quoting lightsaber (Reply 5):
Thank you for these numbers. I always enjoy seeing them and find them interesting.

You are welcome.   

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 5):
How the mightly have fallen. A 77E sells/leases for more than a 744.

Indeed the 744 is yesterdays plane for most. Its economics no longer work the way it did when compared to more efficient models like the 777.

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 5):
But the same is true of the 733.

One good thing about older 733s is there is still demand, and rather regular secondary transactions, so the fleet is being churned. Its not stuck in neutral like others.

Quoting Karan69 (Reply 6):
Any idea of the 330-300 figures?

A330-300 – $18.0 - 97.0M, $240-880,000

Quoting bjorn14 (Reply 7):
That's interesting as G4 seems to abandoning them un favor of 319s which are higher valued than the 320s.

Keep in mind, the low end of A320 pricing is lower as there are lots of older 20+ year airframes out there now. (and likely headed for the scrap man)
But if you look at the top end, the A320 still commands the premium.

I'm sure there are good bargains to be had on A319s particularly as more come off leases from their first owners and become more ubiquitous on the secondary market.



From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
User currently offlineseabosdca From United States of America, joined Sep 2007, 5410 posts, RR: 4
Reply 9, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 6 days ago) and read 7760 times:

Quoting LAXintl (Thread starter):
A321 – $20.0 - 48.5M, $180-365,000
Quoting LAXintl (Thread starter):
B737-900ER - $33.5 - 48.0M, $290-390,000

Interesting to see that the value of a near-new A321 has finally overtaken that of a 737-900ER. The 737-900ER's higher value was always one of the bigger puzzles in earlier versions of these threads.


User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 30908 posts, RR: 87
Reply 10, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 5 days 23 hours ago) and read 7760 times:
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Quoting lightsaber (Reply 5):
How the mightly have fallen. A 77E sells/leases for more than a 744.

747-400 passenger values have cratered because with the air cargo slump, there is no demand for passenger-to-freighter conversions. So instead of being feed-stock, they're now parts-stock.

Cargo operators are holding on to their dedicated freighters, so values for both the 747-8F and 747-400F remain strong.



Quoting seabosdca (Reply 9):
The 737-900ER's higher value was always one of the bigger puzzles in earlier versions of these threads.

The 737NG family as a whole has consistently had higher values than the A320 family, so while the A321-200 is a more capable airframe than the 737-900ER, I expect it's a case of "high tide lifts all boats".


User currently offlineBWIA 772 From Barbados, joined May 2002, 2200 posts, RR: 2
Reply 11, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 5 days 23 hours ago) and read 7761 times:

Quoting LAXintl (Thread starter):

So what are values for the 77L? Will the AI decision to dump their 5 77L affect the values greatly?

Regards
BWIA 772

[Edited 2012-11-06 08:40:49]


Eagles Soar!
User currently offlineLAXintl From United States of America, joined May 2000, 25166 posts, RR: 48
Reply 12, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 5 days 23 hours ago) and read 7761 times:

I don't have any published 777LR values. Its such a small fleet and the lack of transactions provides not much history.

The LR really only has value to someone that needs the range, otherwise one can actually easily argue the LR is a handicapped and less desirable compared the the -200ER due to it being a heavier frame (bigger wing, extra plumbing for cargo aux tanks, less cargo space, etc).

I know an operator that was speaking with AI almost 2-years ago about leasing the aircraft and at that time AI insisted on pricing which would cover their own purchase ownership cost for the models. This asking price was unrealistic as the open market had the larger 77W leases at about the same price.



From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 30908 posts, RR: 87
Reply 13, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 5 days 21 hours ago) and read 7758 times:
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Quoting BWIA 772 (Reply 11):
So what are values for the 77L?

As of April 2012, average airframe values range between $96 million for a 2006 delivery to $121 million for a 2011 delivery.

777-200LR values average ~20% stronger than 777-200ER values of similar delivery ranges as it's performance capabilities make it pretty much master of it's niche.

In terms of lease rates, EK pays $1.2 million a month so I expect that's a fair idea of what other lessees are paying.



Quoting BWIA 772 (Reply 11):
Will the AI decision to dump their 5 77L affect the values greatly?

The near-term trend on values is they will not contract very much.

[Edited 2012-11-06 11:10:09]

User currently offlinelightsaber From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 13018 posts, RR: 100
Reply 14, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 5 days 20 hours ago) and read 7756 times:
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Quoting Karan69 (Reply 6):
But to add to that the lower rates have enabled airlines like EK to renew leases on their 343s and keep them flying till replacements start arriving

Wait, did EK renew leases? Those aircraft were supposed to be leaving the fleet.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 10):
747-400 passenger values have cratered because with the air cargo slump, there is no demand for passenger-to-freighter conversions. So instead of being feed-stock, they're now parts-stock.

Cargo operators are holding on to their dedicated freighters, so values for both the 747-8F and 747-400F remain strong.

Do you mean factory built 744F values remain strong? If 744BCF values were strong, I would expect to see some conversions that would the state of the passenger 744.

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 12):
This asking price was unrealistic as the open market had the larger 77W leases at about the same price.

And getting less realistic as 787 deliveries ramp up... (Like it or not, for non-ULH missions there is some competition between the 788 and 77L.)

Lightsaber



Societies that achieve a critical mass of ideas achieve self sustaining growth; others stagnate.
User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 30908 posts, RR: 87
Reply 15, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 5 days 19 hours ago) and read 7754 times:
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Quoting lightsaber (Reply 14):
Do you mean factory built 744F values remain strong?

Correct.

747-400BCFs are heading to storage, so I expect their values are slumping, as well.


User currently offlineLAXintl From United States of America, joined May 2000, 25166 posts, RR: 48
Reply 16, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 5 days 19 hours ago) and read 7756 times:

Quoting Stitch (Reply 15):
747-400BCFs are heading to storage, so I expect their values are slumping, as well.

   and not just BCF but there are now 7 pure -400F parked also.

This was actually brought up on the Atlas Air earnings call. The BCF was termed, handicap as it is older, less reliable, heavier and is less weight and capacity capable. Said they foresee the industry shying away from the BCF unless there is a major uptick in global airfreight - something not forecast for the next couple of years.



From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
User currently offlinelightsaber From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 13018 posts, RR: 100
Reply 17, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 4 days 20 hours ago) and read 7751 times:
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I'm going to repeat a question: Did EK renew their leases on the A343s? I was expecting them to leave the fleet this year (possibly into early 2013).

Quoting Stitch (Reply 15):
747-400BCFs are heading to storage, so I expect their values are slumping, as well.

Ouch... Thank you.

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 16):
Said they foresee the industry shying away from the BCF unless there is a major uptick in global airfreight - something not forecast for the next couple of years.

Interesting. Are *any* 744s being converted in 2012 or 2013?

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 16):
The BCF was termed, handicap as it is older, less reliable, heavier and is less weight and capacity capable.

This implies the 'baseload' of freight demand wants that nose door (or perhaps just the weight lift of the factory 744F).

Lightsaber



Societies that achieve a critical mass of ideas achieve self sustaining growth; others stagnate.
User currently offlineKarelXWB From Netherlands, joined Jul 2012, 11367 posts, RR: 33
Reply 18, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 4 days 19 hours ago) and read 7752 times:

There is an interesting piece of information on Aspire Aviation about the 747 BCF:

Quote:
As for grounding the 747-400BCF, the cost saving is more significant as not only the 747-8F is 16% more fuel efficient per payload tonne than the 747-400F and around 23% more fuel efficient than the 747-400BCF, the 747-400BCF is also maintenance-heavy which is very expensive. Grounding these maintenance-intensive, fuel inefficient 747-400BCF freighters and taking cargo capacity out of a soft market not only saves expensive fuel and maintenance costs, but also prevents further pressuring the cargo yields.
http://www.aspireaviation.com/2012/0...or-cathay-pacific-in-stormy-skies/



Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity. And I'm not sure about the universe.
User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 30908 posts, RR: 87
Reply 19, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 4 days 19 hours ago) and read 7753 times:
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I'm going to repeat a question: Did EK renew their leases on the A343s? I was expecting them to leave the fleet this year (possibly into early 2013).[/quote]

An EK executive last month stated they were working to phase out the A330-200, A340-300, A340-500, 777-200 and 777-200ER by 2017, with one or two perhaps sticking around longer.



Quoting lightsaber (Reply 17):
Are *any* 744s being converted in 2012 or 2013?

Back in July, Boeing delivered the 50th 747-400BCF to Evergreen International Airlines (it was EVA's first delivery). That appears to be the latest.


User currently offlineLAXintl From United States of America, joined May 2000, 25166 posts, RR: 48
Reply 20, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 3 days ago) and read 7745 times:

The global economic malaise, and especially the Chinese export engine slowdown has effected the freighter aircraft market.

Looks like finally will see the death of the 747 Classic and models like the DC-10 (except for FX MD-10 conversions), while even many newer models are parked and available.
As both passenger and cargo carriers continue to see economic headwinds, the pruning of fleet and networks have not exempted freighter ops.
Also I see this as partially behind Airbus inability to get its P2F ventures off the ground.



From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
User currently offlinedon From Japan, joined Jun 2003, 274 posts, RR: 0
Reply 21, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 2 days 11 hours ago) and read 7748 times:

Your post is very timely for me as I have just started a very preliminary feasibility study for a 747 dry leasing project on behalf of a friend.

Do you have any figures for 747 pax dry leasing rates for both 747 classic and 744 ?

Thank you very much.


User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 30908 posts, RR: 87
Reply 22, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 1 day 23 hours ago) and read 7750 times:
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Quoting don (Reply 21):
Do you have any figures for 747 pax dry leasing rates for both 747 classic and 744?

747 Classics are at scrap values nowadays, so not sure what, if any, lease market is around for them. For freighters, a 747-200SF leases out for around $65,000-90,000 a month. Southern Air has a large fleet in storage due to the high maintenance and fuel costs, which has depressed values.

Averages for the 747-400 are between $170,000-295,000 a month for a 1989-1995 delivery and $245,000-505,000 for a 1996-2002 delivery.

Due to the general lack of demand for the type, if you are planning a short-term lease or a less secure customer, expect to pay a premium.


User currently offlineDash8Driver16 From United States of America, joined Dec 2011, 94 posts, RR: 0
Reply 23, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 1 day 18 hours ago) and read 7747 times:

Do you have any numbers for the Dash 8 100/200/300?

User currently offlinedon From Japan, joined Jun 2003, 274 posts, RR: 0
Reply 24, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 1 day 18 hours ago) and read 7748 times:

Quoting Stitch (Reply 22):
747 Classics are at scrap values nowadays, so not sure what, if any, lease market is around for them. For freighters, a 747-200SF leases out for around $65,000-90,000 a month. Southern Air has a large fleet in storage due to the high maintenance and fuel costs, which has depressed values.

Averages for the 747-400 are between $170,000-295,000 a month for a 1989-1995 delivery and $245,000-505,000 for a 1996-2002 delivery.

Due to the general lack of demand for the type, if you are planning a short-term lease or a less secure customer, expect to pay a premium.

Thank you, Much appreciated.


25 Larshjort : I am amazed that the ATR 72 holds it value so well. I count at least 48 returned to lessors this year out of a total production of +500 produced, tha
26 Stitch : The Dash8-100 is between $20,000 and $40,000 a month. The -200 runs $30,000 to $40,000. The -300 is $35,000 to $90,000 and the -400 is $70,000 to $19
27 cuban8 : With all these A340-500/600 on the ground, I would not be surprised if you could get a good bargain on them wether it's leasing or buying. Can anyone
28 Stitch : (Average Monthly Rents in Thousands of US Dollars) A340-500 (2002 Delivery) 2008: $882,000 2009: $660,000 2010: $465,000 2011: $360,000 2012: $290,00
29 mffoda : That's an amazing drop in value! I can't imagine what the lessors are going through? It's almost like the housing market? Just let mortgage lapse and
30 Post contains images PHX787 : Damn, if my family sells our house, we can rent an A345 for a month What a drop. I'm probably gonna safely say that in the next few years, the only p
31 lightsaber : Agreed. Oh, coupled with decent A330 resale value in passenger configuration too... Hence why Boeing has delayed the 777 conversion too (not as publi
32 Post contains links and images lightsaber : Wow... That is a plummet. Almost plots with the inverse of oil prices. Concur. What surprises me is how close the rates are on the A345/A346. I would
33 Stitch : The 737-800 and A320-200 also saw tremendous drops in their lease rates once the GFC hit - rates dropped by over half between 2007 and 2012. Really,
34 flightsimer : Evergreen will be taking delivery of another one in the first week of December, which is either their third or forth. And then in 2013, they have thr
35 Post contains images TrijetsRMissed : I'm interested in the data on the ex-SV MD-90s. It has yet to be determined, but some time next year we'll know the market lease rate for these specif
36 astuteman : Airbus admitted that mid last decade they were a tad sharper on A32X pricing than they might have wanted to be. I wonder if the stronger prices for l
37 mffoda : As Stitch pointed out, all lease rates have taken a hit. I thought it would be useful to see them together. Here's a side by side comparison of lease
38 Stitch : Could be. We're also starting to enter another "order bubble" and that raises values and lease rates. There is also the supply and demand angle - Air
39 Viscount724 : Don't think your numbers are in thousands. I interpret that to mean that you have to add 3 zeros which would make them rather high.
40 Post contains images Stitch : Yeah, ignore that bit.
41 Post contains links and images lightsaber : It just occured to me the latest build A343s are worth more than the newest 744! That had to happen, I just didn't realize the point had already been
42 Stitch : The high supply has hurt A330 rates, though the later-build high-TOW frames are holding their own.
43 something : As there is virtually no market for second hand frames of either aircraft, both aircraft are effectively worth their scrap value. The re-useable part
44 United727 : Might you cite a current value/lease for the 732 and the 722? Thanks!
45 Post contains links lightsaber : We'll have to disagree on this. The A343 (newest builds) is doing too well vs. the 77E to disapear that quickly. I'll agree they will be retired earl
46 Stitch : Evidently it depends on the airline and mission. A VS staffer has noted the 747-400 works out better than the A340-600 unless they can fill the hold
47 something : But what airline will still have A343s by then in noteworthy numbers? There may be some left at airlines like Aerolineas Argentinas, or Iran Air. But
48 Post contains images lightsaber : I doubt any one or two airlines, but a large number of airlines flying a small number each. Due to the much higher cost per flight, I do not see thos
49 something : I don't have a list of all A343s operators, but I can't even think of a large number of airlines flying the type of today. Air Asia will dump theirs,
50 tayaramecanici : Excellent post, before that i've to thank LAXintl for the thread, a very selfless post. My Take. The BOEING Classices are showing the ''GLOW WORM'' (
51 Post contains links and images lightsaber : Thank you for the facts. However, if this list is close to accurate, there are enough A340 operators to keep the fleet going for a while: http://en.w
52 RickNRoll : Which would be a surprise for the A380 skeptics here.
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