FWAERJ From United States of America, joined Jun 2006, 3221 posts, RR: 1 Reply 2, posted (7 months 2 weeks 1 day 16 hours ago) and read 654 times:
To me, the lack of the MAX means that this might be their last 737 order, and when the MAX comes online, FR will be the European launch customer for the C919 (after COMAC has proven their planes in China).
Aesma From France, joined Nov 2009, 4934 posts, RR: 9 Reply 3, posted (7 months 2 weeks 1 day 15 hours ago) and read 654 times:
I'm guessing they're expecting a very low price so ruled out the MAX for that reason alone. Not sure Boeing really wants to give them such a deal again, though.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
mffoda From United States of America, joined Apr 2010, 945 posts, RR: 0 Reply 4, posted (7 months 2 weeks 1 day 15 hours ago) and read 652 times:
Quoting FWAERJ (Reply 2): To me, the lack of the MAX means that this might be their last 737 order, and when the MAX comes online, FR will be the European launch customer for the C919 (after COMAC has proven their planes in China).
Nothing more, nothing less.
Maybe I don't understand your meaning...
But, If you think 737 orders (NG or MAX) are over?? You might want to avoid the internet in the next few months as hundreds 737's are orders are finalized, and new orders are confirmed... Not counting Ryanair...
mffoda From United States of America, joined Apr 2010, 945 posts, RR: 0 Reply 7, posted (7 months 2 weeks 1 day 15 hours ago) and read 652 times:
Quoting FWAERJ (Reply 6): Regardless of what FR does, there will still be plenty of other customers knocking on Boeing's door for 737s, both NG and MAX.
Stitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 26959 posts, RR: 83 Reply 8, posted (7 months 2 weeks 1 day 13 hours ago) and read 650 times:
I see the C919 as being too much of a maintenance and dispatch reliability risk to have FR buy them - especially as the backbone of their fleet.
Honestly, I could see dispatch reliability as a reason for not looking at the MAX (or, by extension, the neo). They run a tight ship schedule-wise and they know the 737NG like the back of their hand. It's certainly the lowest-risk option, whereas the C919 would be the highest risk.
tdscanuck From Canada, joined Jan 2006, 12709 posts, RR: 80 Reply 10, posted (7 months 2 weeks 1 day 12 hours ago) and read 650 times:
Quoting FWAERJ (Reply 2): FR will be the European launch customer for the C919 (after COMAC has proven their planes in China).
FR is about the last carrier on earth that will purchase the C919.
More than almost any other airline, FR's business model rests on extremely high dispatch reliability, extremely high operating efficiency, and extremely high safety. The C919 is none of these things.
Whatever COMAC does after the C919 is far more likely to make inroads with FR. Even COMAC admits that the C919 isn't competitive with the 737/A320, isn't designed to be, and never will be. The C919 is a stepping stone. FR's not going to step on it.
boilerla From United States of America, joined Jul 2010, 264 posts, RR: 0 Reply 11, posted (7 months 2 weeks 1 day 7 hours ago) and read 650 times:
Quoting tdscanuck (Reply 10):
More than almost any other airline, FR's business model rests on extremely high dispatch reliability, extremely high operating efficiency, and extremely high safety. The C919 is none of these things.
Not to mention that FR isn't going to replace a fleet of 300 737s overnight. In order to execute the business plan you indicate (high operating efficiency & dispatch reliability), you need things like crew bases and spare parts. Even if FR ordered 300 C919s, they would at best have a dozen or so a year. So their entire business plan goes to hell whenever a plane needs a spare part that has to be flown in from the nearest base that has 919 spare parts, and that plane sits on the ground for hours at a time.
They're locked in (to the 737) for the long haul now.
parapente From United Kingdom, joined Mar 2006, 1320 posts, RR: 10 Reply 13, posted (7 months 2 weeks 1 day 6 hours ago) and read 654 times:
The man wants a 'deal' pure and simple.Indeed he indicated a while back that 'price' had been sorted with Boeing. One assumes that there is a 'gap' between the MAX and the existing aircraft which both parties can exploit happily.
Who knows since both Boeing and their Blended winglet partners are both offering a variant of "Feathers" perhaps he could have these and save a little fuel. The present aircraft has got the brand new interior too.
I think there is a deal there for both parties and good luck to them both.Other aircraft? Nope he follows the South West model to the 'n'th' degree. It will be 737's no question about that.
flybyguy From United States of America, joined Jun 2004, 1791 posts, RR: 1 Reply 14, posted (7 months 2 weeks 1 day 6 hours ago) and read 650 times:
Quoting Aesma (Reply 3): I'm guessing they're expecting a very low price so ruled out the MAX for that reason alone. Not sure Boeing really wants to give them such a deal again, though.
FR's operation may not need greater fuel efficiency if they can get another significant discount on new build aircraft. The resale values for used FR aircraft will be driven lower with the introduction of the MAX. FR makes money selling seats and by selling used aircraft before maintenance becomes expensive. If they get their next tranche of 737NGs, they probably need to get a significant discount from Boeing to make that scheme work. Not sure if Boeing will bite this time. FR will be forced to purchase new design aircraft when Boeing ends production of the NG. It remains to be seen if at that point Boeing will have price command over FR.
As a side note, I'm almost certain FR does not want to throw all its eggs on unproven COMAC aircraft. COMAC has been plagued with delays only to introduce aircraft inferior to Boeing, Bombardier and Airbus offerings. I foresee that in the near term, COMAC will be producing aircraft based upon reverse engineering of older Airbus, McDonnell Douglas and Embraer aircraft built in China. COMAC will be a force to be reckoned with, but not anytime this decade.
"Are you a pretender... or a thoroughbred?!" - Professor Matt Miller
kl911 From Ireland, joined Jul 2003, 4994 posts, RR: 13 Reply 15, posted (7 months 2 weeks 1 day 4 hours ago) and read 653 times:
Quoting parapente (Reply 13): I think there is a deal there for both parties and good luck to them both.Other aircraft? Nope he follows the South West model to the 'n'th' degree. It will be 737's no question about that.
Unless you do it the Easyjet way and replace all 737's with A319 or A320's . And doing that one base at a time will allow migration of crewbase and spare parts too. And A320 spare parts can be found anywhere ofcourse.
scbriml From United Kingdom, joined Jul 2003, 11446 posts, RR: 50 Reply 16, posted (7 months 2 weeks 1 day 4 hours ago) and read 660 times:
Quoting boilerla (Reply 11): They're locked in (to the 737) for the long haul now.
Like all the other airlines that purchased A320s after being 'life long' 737 customers?
If FR were able to make more money by switching away from the 737NG, they'll do it. They'll have to at some point in the future, the NG will eventually stop being built.
N766UA From United States of America, joined Jul 1999, 8008 posts, RR: 27 Reply 17, posted (7 months 2 weeks 1 day 3 hours ago) and read 659 times:
Quoting tdscanuck (Reply 10): FR is about the last carrier on earth that will purchase the C919.
I'd think the list for "last carrier on earth" would be pretty long. I mean, honestly, why would anyone buy an unproven Chinese jet (a country with practically zero track record in aviation) when Boeing, Embraer, Airbus, and Canadair offer similar jets?
wingman From Spain, joined May 1999, 1856 posts, RR: 5 Reply 18, posted (7 months 2 weeks 23 hours ago) and read 652 times:
They've been building and reverse engineering MDs and 320s for years now. So they start with the 919 and apply ever so gentle tactics on domestic carriers to buy them by the hundreds. Then they advance to Asian and African carriers in markets where they exert significant economic influence and apply those same tactics. Next thing you know they're selling "Airbus" kit at half the price and by 2030 they have 30%-50% of the narrowbody market.
All of this assumes the first tranche of 919s aren't falling out of the sky weekly. If they build a safe plane and iron out the MX quality over the first 5-10 years, then I think they will be on par or will have surpassed Boeing and/or Airbus in this segment in the next 20 years. These people build dams, skyscrapers, iPads, and what look to be pretty reliable human-capable spacecraft. I doubt passenger jets will faze them much if they really want to be in the space that badly.
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