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Pilot Shortage In The US - WSJ Article  
User currently offlineVS11 From United States of America, joined Jul 2001, 1109 posts, RR: 0
Posted (1 year 9 months 1 week 4 days 10 hours ago) and read 2709 times:

The topic of a forthcoming pilot shortage in the US comes up again - this time in the WSJ:

128 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineseabosdca From United States of America, joined Sep 2007, 5379 posts, RR: 4
Reply 1, posted (1 year 9 months 1 week 4 days 10 hours ago) and read 2735 times:

Try this link.

User currently offlineVS11 From United States of America, joined Jul 2001, 1109 posts, RR: 0
Reply 2, posted (1 year 9 months 1 week 4 days 10 hours ago) and read 2731 times:

Here is the link:

User currently offlineVS11 From United States of America, joined Jul 2001, 1109 posts, RR: 0
Reply 3, posted (1 year 9 months 1 week 4 days 10 hours ago) and read 2720 times:

Quoting seabosdca (Reply 1):
Try this link.

Thank you! Tried several times..not sure what was going on.


User currently offlineseabosdca From United States of America, joined Sep 2007, 5379 posts, RR: 4
Reply 4, posted (1 year 9 months 1 week 4 days 10 hours ago) and read 2718 times:

WSJ stories can't be directly linked because they will end up behind the paywall. To link to a WSJ story you need to find a Google referrer link for it.

User currently offlineVS11 From United States of America, joined Jul 2001, 1109 posts, RR: 0
Reply 5, posted (1 year 9 months 1 week 4 days 10 hours ago) and read 2721 times:

Quoting seabosdca (Reply 4):
WSJ stories can't be directly linked because they will end up behind the paywall. To link to a WSJ story you need to find a Google referrer link for it.

Got it. Thanks again!


User currently offlineiowaman From United States of America, joined May 2004, 4383 posts, RR: 6
Reply 6, posted (1 year 9 months 1 week 4 days 9 hours ago) and read 2725 times:
AIRLINERS.NET CREW
FORUM MODERATOR

Well, when you barely get paid pay enough to get by in a large city, people aren't going to be as inclined to become a pilot especially with the stricter requirements and higher costs than ever, simple as that. If they are serious about needing more pilots, an airline sponsorship and/or higher starting pay will solve the problem.

[Edited 2012-11-12 16:05:46]


Next flights: WN DSM-LAS-PHX, US PHX-SJD. Return: US SJD-PHX, WN PHX-MDW-DSM
User currently offlinejetblueguy22 From United States of America, joined Nov 2007, 2782 posts, RR: 4
Reply 7, posted (1 year 9 months 1 week 4 days 9 hours ago) and read 2720 times:
AIRLINERS.NET CREW
HEAD MODERATOR

Pretty interesting insight. They mentioned Kent Lovelace from the University of North Dakota and as a student I can give a little bit more to what he's saying. We have a UAS program up here and that seems to be where a lot of the students are headed. I've heard more about the need for pilots in that field than in commercial aviation. Not to mention the starting pay is a lot better. It should be interesting to see if any of the financial support comes to happen. I know a lot of kids up here who pay for their flight fees themselves as many people do, but can't get federal loans or get very little because of their parent's financial situation. I think if low interest government loans are offerred that could help a lot of kids who were scared away due to money. I know it would help me a ton. The interest rates on private loans are terrible.
Blue



You push down on that yoke, the houses get bigger, you pull back on the yoke, the houses get bigger- Ken Foltz
User currently offlineAcey559 From United States of America, joined Jan 2007, 1529 posts, RR: 2
Reply 8, posted (1 year 9 months 1 week 4 days 9 hours ago) and read 2721 times:

Republic has been offering a hiring bonus for a while and now we're planning to offer $5000 here at Eagle as well, though many are upset because it circumvents our contract and we just passed a new concessionary contract, but that's for another discussion.  

User currently offlineindiansbucs From Costa Rica, joined May 2007, 151 posts, RR: 0
Reply 9, posted (1 year 9 months 1 week 4 days 9 hours ago) and read 2717 times:

I would like to make emphasys on this quote from the article:

"Tim Brady, dean of the school's Florida college of aviation, warned that expanding the pipeline of pilots "is not a future problem; it is upon us now." Some proponents want to see low-interest loans or various other federal subsidies go to fledgling aviators at flight schools or academic institutions. Others advocate scholarships or loan guarantees provided by prospective employers. "We're going to have to do something unique" to find answers, John Allen, a senior Federal Aviation Administration official, told a training conference in Washington over the summer. Without swift, coordinated action, he told another industry gathering, "by the time big airlines feel [a shortage], the need will be critical."

Actually... there is no incentive from any US airline to promote the pilot career, not even if they have the pilots doing other jobs like ACS or anything else (like it happens to me). All my studies and flying hours i have accomplished it because of personal efforts, and there isnt any light at the end that would tell me that the airline is willing to recruit me soon. But at the pace the industry has... i hope that will change sooner than later...


User currently offlineflymia From United States of America, joined Jun 2001, 7140 posts, RR: 9
Reply 10, posted (1 year 9 months 1 week 4 days 8 hours ago) and read 2717 times:

It might actually happen due to what a low payIng low security job it has become. That being said I was hearing about a pilot shortage 8 years ago and besides for a brief hiring at the regionals a few years ago I have yet to see it. It is nice to see the legacies hiring a bit more again though. Who knows. But as long as training cost are high and starting pay is low I can see why a pilot shortage might happen.


"It was just four of us on the flight deck, trying to do our job" (Captain Al Haynes)
User currently offlineindiansbucs From Costa Rica, joined May 2007, 151 posts, RR: 0
Reply 11, posted (1 year 9 months 1 week 4 days 8 hours ago) and read 2714 times:

There is a phrase in spanish that says: "Cuando el rio suena, es porque piedras trae". It means that if you hear the river from far away... it will definitively bring rocks.

I know the pilot shortage has been a topic of discussion for quite some time... but it will eventually come.

Quoting indiansbucs (Reply 9):
"Tim Brady, dean of the school's Florida college of aviation, warned that expanding the pipeline of pilots "is not a future problem; it is upon us now."

Now we can see... 1) The drain at the top with the retiring of pilots (which is quite a lot). 2) Bringing the requirements up will make life harder for younger pilots and for airlines to get them onboard to replace the older pilots. 3) The low salaries currently offered which make people to think it twice to become a career pilot.

These big issues will lead eventually to:

Quoting indiansbucs (Reply 9):
"We're going to have to do something unique" to find answers, John Allen, a senior Federal Aviation Administration official, told a training conference in Washington over the summer.

and of course:

Quoting indiansbucs (Reply 9):
Without swift, coordinated action, he told another industry gathering, "by the time big airlines feel [a shortage], the need will be critical."


User currently offlinePHX787 From Japan, joined Mar 2012, 7394 posts, RR: 17
Reply 12, posted (1 year 9 months 1 week 4 days 8 hours ago) and read 2716 times:

I'm beginning to regret being a FLA Japanese language student at my university instead of to flight school....but then again what kind of job could I get in 2 or 3 years from now? It says there is a shortage, but for what airlines/services/aircraft?


次は、渋谷、渋谷。出口は、右側です。電車とホームの間は広く開いておりますので、足元に注意下さい。
User currently offlinecontrails From United States of America, joined Oct 2000, 1833 posts, RR: 0
Reply 13, posted (1 year 9 months 1 week 4 days 8 hours ago) and read 2715 times:

This news didn't really surprise me. I've been expecting this sort of thing to develop eventually. People used to flying where they want when they want should start considering alternatives.

Amtrak - are you listening?



Flying Colors Forever!
User currently offlineDeltaMD90 From United States of America, joined Apr 2008, 7867 posts, RR: 52
Reply 14, posted (1 year 9 months 1 week 4 days 8 hours ago) and read 2715 times:

They've got me sold. I still hope they're hiring a lot of pilots in 2021... I'll be ready about then. Hope that's not too late  


Ironically I have never flown a Delta MD-90 :)
User currently offlineRyanairGuru From Australia, joined Oct 2006, 5366 posts, RR: 4
Reply 15, posted (1 year 9 months 1 week 4 days 8 hours ago) and read 2717 times:

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 12):
what kind of job could I get in 2 or 3 years from now? It says there is a shortage, but for what airlines/services/aircraft?

And herein lies the problem. The majors are probably not too concerned, they can draw upon the endless pool of regional pilots out there.

Where this is going to bite hardest is at the bottom of the pile. It is the regionals who are going to suffer recruitment problems as more and more people are drawn up to the majors, yet they operate on razor thin margins and certainly aren't in a position to start funding cadetships like the LH suggestion in the article above.

To answer your question, PHX787, you would be flying ERJ and CRJs for ExpressJet or Chautauqua. Sounds attractive, right?



Worked Hard, Flew Right
User currently offlinedoug_Or From United States of America, joined Mar 2000, 3402 posts, RR: 3
Reply 16, posted (1 year 9 months 1 week 4 days 8 hours ago) and read 2718 times:

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 12):

I'm beginning to regret being a FLA Japanese language student at my university instead of to flight school....but then again what kind of job could I get in 2 or 3 years from now?

The major airlines will be able to pull from the thousands of well qualified regional pilots. The regional airlines will probably be the only ones who have any trouble finding qualified applicants (especially with the new experience requirements).



When in doubt, one B pump off
User currently offlineaviateur From United States of America, joined Apr 2004, 1352 posts, RR: 11
Reply 17, posted (1 year 9 months 1 week 4 days 7 hours ago) and read 2715 times:

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 15):
And herein lies the problem. The majors are probably not too concerned, they can draw upon the endless pool of regional pilots out there.



Exactly (and that's almost a verbatim line from the new version of my book).

The idea that airlines face an "acute shortage of pilots" is both true and untrue.

Will there be a "pilot shortage"? That depends very much on which sector of the airline industry you're talking about.

The major carriers will ALWAYS have a surplus of highly qualified candidates to choose from, coming from the regionals and the military.

At the moment there are something like 2,000 pilots still furloughed from the US majors, some of whom have been laid off for ten years or more. A good friend of mine, who had worked for TWA and American, recently took a job flying in Dubai because decent US flying jobs are so scarce.

Shortage?

At the regionals it's a slightly different story. It much depends on how the FAA and carriers interpret the new hiring standards rules. There are still going to be a thousand applications for every available job.

[Edited 2012-11-12 18:11:44]


Patrick Smith is an airline pilot, air travel columnist and author
User currently offlineVS11 From United States of America, joined Jul 2001, 1109 posts, RR: 0
Reply 18, posted (1 year 9 months 1 week 4 days 7 hours ago) and read 2718 times:

Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 14):
They've got me sold. I still hope they're hiring a lot of pilots in 2021... I'll be ready about then. Hope that's not too late

Me too. I almost signed up with ATP last year as they were making the same argument i.e. the regionals will feel the crunch and they (ATP) have working relationships with them. I didn't do it because I realized what a dramatic change that would be and I am in my mid-30s. Another thing that sort of annoyed me is that there are no tax breaks if you want to fund your pilot education - i.e. deductions on a loan interest, and you can't take a student loan, unless it is a college degree (and I already have 2 graduate degrees). But maybe things will change now - write to your Congressman or Congresswoman  


User currently offlineoswegobag From United States of America, joined Oct 2008, 169 posts, RR: 0
Reply 19, posted (1 year 9 months 1 week 4 days 6 hours ago) and read 2716 times:

How do you think the new FAA regulations requiring 1500 hours will affect things? Do you think that there is a chance the new law will be repealed before it goes into effect in August?

User currently offlinePHX787 From Japan, joined Mar 2012, 7394 posts, RR: 17
Reply 20, posted (1 year 9 months 1 week 4 days 6 hours ago) and read 2714 times:

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 15):
To answer your question, PHX787, you would be flying ERJ and CRJs for ExpressJet or Chautauqua. Sounds attractive, right?
Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 15):
Where this is going to bite hardest is at the bottom of the pile. It is the regionals who are going to suffer recruitment problems as more and more people are drawn up to the majors, yet they operate on razor thin margins and certainly aren't in a position to start funding cadetships like the LH suggestion in the article above.
Quoting doug_Or (Reply 16):
The major airlines will be able to pull from the thousands of well qualified regional pilots. The regional airlines will probably be the only ones who have any trouble finding qualified applicants (especially with the new experience requirements).

Buuuuut aren't the RJ airlines retiring a number of their 50-seaters? I mean, You gotta start somewhere...but where?  

lets say I finish university, go to flight school, get my commercial license, you know, get as qualified as possible....I end up with an RJ airline, get furloughed when they start retiring their fleet, or get put under, bought out, or something...

It looks like an endless circle.



次は、渋谷、渋谷。出口は、右側です。電車とホームの間は広く開いておりますので、足元に注意下さい。
User currently offlinemayor From United States of America, joined Mar 2008, 10373 posts, RR: 14
Reply 21, posted (1 year 9 months 1 week 4 days 6 hours ago) and read 2717 times:

Not a pilot, myself, but my son-in-law is......he's flown commercial as well as corporate in any number of types. I think airlines like DL are going to have to drop their requirement of a 4 year degree, just to open up the pool of possible candidates. My son-in-law has more experience, flying, available than many who have a 4 year degree (in art history, for example), but they don't look at that experience level.



Another thing that, IMO, has changed the available pool for the majors is the fact that the military pilots that used to be available are now reservists or national guard. Much of the military flying done now is by the reserve and guard and those pilots are airline pilots during the week, anyway.



"A committee is a group of the unprepared, appointed by the unwilling, to do the unnecessary"----Fred Allen
User currently offlineXFSUgimpLB41X From United States of America, joined Aug 2000, 4194 posts, RR: 37
Reply 22, posted (1 year 9 months 1 week 4 days 6 hours ago) and read 2717 times:

There's no reason the airlines can't handle the 1500 hr requirement. There are thousands of unemployed pilots out there with thousands of hours. All the regionals have to do is pay decent wages. They've had 5 years to plan for age 65, 3 years for 1500 hours, and have done nothing but kick the can down the street.

Heck, Sully speaks for me:

http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=50134972n



Chicks dig winglets.
User currently offlinedoug_Or From United States of America, joined Mar 2000, 3402 posts, RR: 3
Reply 23, posted (1 year 9 months 1 week 4 days 5 hours ago) and read 2717 times:

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 20):
Buuuuut aren't the RJ airlines retiring a number of their 50-seaters? I mean, You gotta start somewhere...but where?

lets say I finish university, go to flight school, get my commercial license, you know, get as qualified as possible....I end up with an RJ airline, get furloughed when they start retiring their fleet, or get put under, bought out, or something...

It looks like an endless circle.

Just to clarify, with the new experience requirements, when you graduate with two or three hundred hours you'll probably need to work for a couple of years before you meet the minimum FAA requirements for a part 121 airline.



When in doubt, one B pump off
User currently offlineXFSUgimpLB41X From United States of America, joined Aug 2000, 4194 posts, RR: 37
Reply 24, posted (1 year 9 months 1 week 4 days 5 hours ago) and read 2717 times:

Quoting doug_Or (Reply 23):
Just to clarify, with the new experience requirements, when you graduate with two or three hundred hours you'll probably need to work for a couple of years before you meet the minimum FAA requirements for a part 121 airline.

Just like many of us have done for many years. Took me almost 2000 hours total time before I could get a call from a regional.



Chicks dig winglets.
User currently offlineRyanairGuru From Australia, joined Oct 2006, 5366 posts, RR: 4
Reply 25, posted (1 year 9 months 1 week 4 days 3 hours ago) and read 3136 times:

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 20):
Buuuuut aren't the RJ airlines retiring a number of their 50-seaters? I mean, You gotta start somewhere...but where?

I was being somewhat sarcastic, but you get the point... as with right now, new entrants would almost certainly be at the regionals. Whether that be CRJ200s, Q400s or EMB-170s, well I guess time will tell.

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 20):
get furloughed when they start retiring their fleet

I actually think that's the one positive that could come out of this: you are much less likely to get furloughed. As the majors draw out the experienced regional pilots, the junior ones will probably rise up the seniority list quite quickly.

Let's hypothetically say that, right now, you join SkyWest on the EMB-120 seat. Those will probably be gone within 3 years. By then, however, enough current CRJ pilots could have been called to mainline that you could hold a line on the CRJ fleet, and even if OO draw down CRJ200 capacity they would likely backfill it will 700/900 capacity keeping you in a job.



Worked Hard, Flew Right
User currently offlinemayor From United States of America, joined Mar 2008, 10373 posts, RR: 14
Reply 26, posted (1 year 9 months 1 week 4 days 3 hours ago) and read 3076 times:

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 25):
By then, however, enough current CRJ pilots could have been called to mainline

That's assuming, of course, that the system will have changed enough by then, so that the majors will actually draw from their own regionals. Not sure if they do, now, or not.



"A committee is a group of the unprepared, appointed by the unwilling, to do the unnecessary"----Fred Allen
User currently offlineXFSUgimpLB41X From United States of America, joined Aug 2000, 4194 posts, RR: 37
Reply 27, posted (1 year 9 months 1 week 4 days 3 hours ago) and read 3416 times:

Quoting mayor (Reply 26):

That's assuming, of course, that the system will have changed enough by then, so that the majors will actually draw from their own regionals. Not sure if they do, now, or not.

Over 60% of DL (and NW) pilots hired from 2007-2010 (the last time DL hired) were from the regionals.

The rest were military with a very small handful of corporate.

[Edited 2012-11-12 22:21:14]


Chicks dig winglets.
User currently offlinemayor From United States of America, joined Mar 2008, 10373 posts, RR: 14
Reply 28, posted (1 year 9 months 1 week 4 days 3 hours ago) and read 3359 times:

Quoting XFSUgimpLB41X (Reply 27):
Over 60% of DL (and NW) pilots hired from 2007-2010 (the last time DL hired) were from the regionals.

The rest were military with a very small handful of corporate.

Ok....it's already changed then. Back when I was still working at SLC and my son-in-law was still flying for Skywest, DL seemed like they had an unwritten rule that they wouldn't hire anyone, flying with Skywest.



"A committee is a group of the unprepared, appointed by the unwilling, to do the unnecessary"----Fred Allen
User currently offlineRyanairGuru From Australia, joined Oct 2006, 5366 posts, RR: 4
Reply 29, posted (1 year 9 months 1 week 4 days 3 hours ago) and read 3352 times:

Quoting mayor (Reply 28):
DL seemed like they had an unwritten rule that they wouldn't hire anyone, flying with Skywest.

Back then DL could draw upon Comair and ASA (anyone I've forgotten?) which were wholly owned subsidiaries. Similarly I think that CO drew from ExpressJet prior to the spin-off. Now, however, Eagle is the only in-house regional left, and its days as part of AMR are numbered. Therefore the majors are going to need to hire from other sources.


Edit: I'd completely forgotten about US, and that PSA and Piedmont are wholly owned. Does anyone know if US hires from those carriers, or whether PSA and Piedmont pilots have to compete on the open market for jobs at mainline?

[Edited 2012-11-12 22:46:42]


Worked Hard, Flew Right
User currently offlineAirlineCritic From Finland, joined Mar 2009, 701 posts, RR: 1
Reply 30, posted (1 year 9 months 1 week 4 days 2 hours ago) and read 3325 times:

It is a market on a global economy. There will never be a situation where the US airlines are short of pilots. If the majors are short of pilots, they get plenty of applicants from people who currently work for the regional airlines. If the regional airlines do not have enough pilots, rising the pay they offer will attract reserve pilots, furloughed pilots, and pilots who had moved overseas. If the economy of moving to America and being pilot gets good enough, pilots from Europe and elsewhere could easily make the switch. If the economics of being a pilot are good enough, students will flock to do it. And pilot education is relatively short, compared to the length of education needed for many other fields.

In other words, the more you pay, the more people you will get. It is conceivable that there will be a "pilot shortage" that causes some companies to not be able to hire pilots on benefits that do not make it possible to live in any big city or near the base. So be it.


User currently offlineXFSUgimpLB41X From United States of America, joined Aug 2000, 4194 posts, RR: 37
Reply 31, posted (1 year 9 months 1 week 4 days 2 hours ago) and read 3330 times:

I should clarify, my 60% from the regionals should also include other "major" carriers such as AirTran, JetBlue, and various others (including freight operations). DL did not discriminate on pulling from any and all carriers. NW did have a rule of not hiring from its regionals (their logic was it caused them to have to pay to train 2 pilots- dumb), but that policy died with the merger thankfully.


Chicks dig winglets.
User currently offlineindiansbucs From Costa Rica, joined May 2007, 151 posts, RR: 0
Reply 32, posted (1 year 9 months 1 week 3 days 18 hours ago) and read 3265 times:

Quoting AirlineCritic (Reply 30):
If the regional airlines do not have enough pilots, rising the pay they offer will attract reserve pilots, furloughed pilots, and pilots who had moved overseas. If the economy of moving to America and being pilot gets good enough, pilots from Europe and elsewhere could easily make the switch. If the economics of being a pilot are good enough, students will flock to do it. And pilot education is relatively short, compared to the length of education needed for many other fields.

What makes you think the "pilot shortage" will be felt only in the US? There are currently many airlines all over the world that are hiring people with zero experience in flying to make them pilots for their airline and hold them with a long term contract. Also, what makes you think US airlines will be as competitive as Middle East airlines that are paying much more than US airlines will ever pay and are stealing pilots from all over the world as well, to think that pilots will just go to the US because: "its the US"...

Let me tell you... there are many airlines in Latin America (and I know that in Asia as well) that are hiring pilots with lower requirements and in some cases not putting any restrictions regarding nationalities. The US airline industry has always thought they had control of everything, including the pilot industry... but let me tell you it isnt me who is talking about it.

Quoting indiansbucs (Reply 9):
"We're going to have to do something unique" to find answers, John Allen, a senior Federal Aviation Administration official, told a training conference in Washington over the summer. Without swift, coordinated action, he told another industry gathering, "by the time big airlines feel [a shortage], the need will be critical."


User currently offlinefutureualpilot From United States of America, joined May 2000, 2602 posts, RR: 8
Reply 33, posted (1 year 9 months 1 week 3 days 16 hours ago) and read 3155 times:

Quoting indiansbucs (Reply 32):
What makes you think the "pilot shortage" will be felt only in the US? There are currently many airlines all over the world that are hiring people with zero experience in flying to make them pilots for their airline and hold them with a long term contract. Also, what makes you think US airlines will be as competitive as Middle East airlines that are paying much more than US airlines will ever pay and are stealing pilots from all over the world as well, to think that pilots will just go to the US because: "its the US"...

Let me tell you... there are many airlines in Latin America (and I know that in Asia as well) that are hiring pilots with lower requirements and in some cases not putting any restrictions regarding nationalities. The US airline industry has always thought they had control of everything, including the pilot industry... but let me tell you it isnt me who is talking about it.

Easy, nobody ever said it is only the US, but the article is from a US news source discussion the situation in the states, and subsequently the discussion is too. I don't know where you're getting the idea that the US airline industry thinks they're the ones that "have control of everything" but we certainly don't. I doubt you'll find many in the US airline industry who feel that way as well.

With regard to the middle east companies, many of them pay very well but the work rules can be absolutely atrocious. Worse than the worst of the regional carriers here in the states. There is more to attracting pilots than the pay scales.



Life is better when you surf.
User currently offlinesaab2000 From Switzerland, joined Jun 2001, 1610 posts, RR: 11
Reply 34, posted (1 year 9 months 1 week 3 days 15 hours ago) and read 3124 times:

I have no way to know if there's any substance to it, but I have heard that there is a push to again up the retirement age, this time to 67 or 68. The group pushing it? The RAA - Regional Airline Association. They know their ranks will be decimated in a few years.

There's a perfect storm brewing. Huge retirements at major/legacy carriers. ATP requirements. New duty and rest regulations. I don't know which one will be more challenging but I think the ATP requirement is being underestimated. Finding hundreds or even thousands of ATP-rated pilots to work at a regional airline for peanuts as F/Os is going to be difficult. Why would someone who has that level of experience grovel for a job flying for $25/hour or less to start with? And after a few years top out at some carriers flying EMB-175/190 for $36/hour?

There will be a problem in this industry. It's going to get very interesting in the next 36 months.

Also, there really aren't thousands of pilots out there on the street with thousands of hours. The furlough numbers published on sites like APC dot com are do not tell the whole story. Nr. 1, those numbers make no mention of how many have gone on to other airlines or other careers, never to return. Nr. 2, few, if any, of those pilots will be standing in line to fly at regionals. They could do that already if they wanted. Airlines like JetBlue, Southwest, AirTran, VX, etc. have swallowed up large numbers of those furloughees from AA and United and they won't be going back. And if they do it will just open up a slot at those carriers. People said US Airways wouldn't hire for decades as recently as 5 years ago. Guess who's hiring? Most of these carriers have to call 3 or 4 pilots to get one to return. The number of pilots on furlough from majors will be exceeded by the retirements at the same majors within 24 months.



smrtrthnu
User currently offlinelightsaber From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 12981 posts, RR: 100
Reply 35, posted (1 year 9 months 1 week 3 days 13 hours ago) and read 3121 times:
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I'd like to see an analysis of how the up-gauging of RJs is going to effect pilot demand. Oh, those at the bottom whom no longer may use pilots with 250 to 1500 hours of experience will have issues. How many of those will pay more?

Also, the military is drawing down. The #1 issue I see is the pay of pilot jobs versus the other jobs those candidates are able to secure. I know more than a dozen commercial pilots who 'fly desks' rather than take a pay cut.

If this is a big enough hit, expect the 1500 hour rule to be changed to 1000 hours (or even a little less). In my opinion, the rule change was made to help ex-military pilots as the post-gulf wars pull down commences.

And the WSJ notes an 'out' The FAA is trying to soften the blow. It has proposed a rule that would lower the requirement to 750 hours for military aviators and 1,000 hours for graduates of four-year aviation universities.

Now wouldn't that be a gift to the aviation universities... I suspect that change will happen.

Quoting indiansbucs (Reply 11):
I know the pilot shortage has been a topic of discussion for quite some time... but it will eventually come.

Why? If so, it will be temporary and then the flood of candidates will be hungry. We've heard about this shortage for so long it has become the boogey man. And for many good reasons, it won

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 15):
And herein lies the problem. The majors are probably not too concerned, they can draw upon the endless pool of regional pilots out there.

Or corporate. There is zero reason for a major, in particular the better paying ones, to give a hoot.

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 15):
yet they operate on razor thin margins and certainly aren't in a position to start funding cadetships like the LH suggestion in the article above.

   But will the regionals be as hard hit as corporate?

Quoting aviateur (Reply 17):
The idea that airlines face an "acute shortage of pilots" is both true and untrue.

Will there be a "pilot shortage"? That depends very much on which sector of the airline industry you're talking about.

The major carriers will ALWAYS have a surplus of highly qualified candidates to choose from, coming from the regionals and the military.

At the moment there are something like 2,000 pilots still furloughed from the US majors, some of whom have been laid off for ten years or more. A good friend of mine, who had worked for TWA and American, recently took a job flying in Dubai because decent US flying jobs are so scarce.

That sums it up nicely. For HIGH PAYING flying jobs, there is a surplus of pilots. For low paying, there is a shortage. I'm not sure how many regionals will be hit. But I also suspect they won't have trouble manning up long term.

Quoting mayor (Reply 21):
I think airlines like DL are going to have to drop their requirement of a 4 year degree, just to open up the pool of possible candidates.

   DL will have their choice of candidates who dream of flying widebodies. It will be DL's regional partners who have to adapt.

Quoting AirlineCritic (Reply 30):
There will never be a situation where the US airlines are short of pilots. If the majors are short of pilots, they get plenty of applicants from people who currently work for the regional airlines. If the regional airlines do not have enough pilots, rising the pay they offer will attract reserve pilots, furloughed pilots, and pilots who had moved overseas.

True, except that many oversees jobs pay enough to raise a family and the regionals will never be able to offer that to entry candidates. So they will be squeezed. However, the switch to ~76 seat RJs will help reduce their pilot demand.

Lightsaber

[Edited 2012-11-13 12:18:51]


Societies that achieve a critical mass of ideas achieve self sustaining growth; others stagnate.
User currently offlineFlighty From United States of America, joined Apr 2007, 8468 posts, RR: 2
Reply 36, posted (1 year 9 months 1 week 3 days 10 hours ago) and read 3088 times:

Quoting XFSUgimpLB41X (Reply 22):
There's no reason the airlines can't handle the 1500 hr requirement

Mechanically, how would you go from 500 to 1500 hrs if not at a regional? Small cargo air? It will cause all other pilots jobs to pay less, because young 'uns will be truly desperate for hours.

I mean, for the moment yes we have enough pilots. But to have a future, there has to be a pipeline in. What is it?..

Quoting indiansbucs (Reply 32):
There are currently many airlines all over the world that are hiring people with zero experience in flying to make them pilots for their airline and hold them with a long term contract

Hopefully those new recruits would not try flying to the USA. They would not be eligible to enter our airspace with under 1,500 hours, or is that a misunderstanding on my part...


User currently offlinefutureualpilot From United States of America, joined May 2000, 2602 posts, RR: 8
Reply 37, posted (1 year 9 months 1 week 3 days 10 hours ago) and read 3084 times:

Quoting Flighty (Reply 36):
Mechanically, how would you go from 500 to 1500 hrs if not at a regional? Small cargo air? It will cause all other pilots jobs to pay less, because young 'uns will be truly desperate for hours.

Instruct, photo flying, pipeline flying, fly freight, fish spotting, ferry flying. I found a way to get a couple thousand hours before my first airline job, as have thousands of other current and former RJ pilots. It can be done before you're flying paying passengers in the back.



Life is better when you surf.
User currently offlineindiansbucs From Costa Rica, joined May 2007, 151 posts, RR: 0
Reply 38, posted (1 year 9 months 1 week 3 days 10 hours ago) and read 3078 times:

Quoting Flighty (Reply 36):
Hopefully those new recruits would not try flying to the USA. They would not be eligible to enter our airspace with under 1,500 hours, or is that a misunderstanding on my part...

My friend... it means carriers like Etihad for example, they hire people with no flying experience at all... to introduce them into a two year program in which they will learn to fly, build sufficient hours and convert them into their own pilots, and also they are going to be hold for some years by the contract they sign.

If airlines like Etihad have these kind of problem recruiting to do these kind of programs, even though they offer a lot of benefits and high salaries... a shortage is evident in the world industry. And it isnt just Etihad...


User currently offlineDashTrash From United States of America, joined exactly 8 years ago today! , 1522 posts, RR: 2
Reply 39, posted (1 year 9 months 1 week 3 days 10 hours ago) and read 3097 times:

Quoting XFSUgimpLB41X (Reply 22):
There's no reason the airlines can't handle the 1500 hr requirement. There are thousands of unemployed pilots out there with thousands of hours. All the regionals have to do is pay decent wages. They've had 5 years to plan for age 65, 3 years for 1500 hours, and have done nothing but kick the can down the street.

Heck, Sully speaks for me:

http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?...4972n

Bingo. I haven't seen a cockpit since 2009. I'm sitting here with 5K +, and a couple of type ratings. I currently fly a desk for more than double the money I would make even as a fourth year regional FO. I will not bring my experience into a cockpit for less than what I feel is a fair wage. No regional offers that as far as I'm concerned.

Quoting XFSUgimpLB41X (Reply 24):
Just like many of us have done for many years. Took me almost 2000 hours total time before I could get a call from a regional.

Already been addressed, but I had about 1500 TT, most of it multi before I got hired at a regional. I flew a lot of aerial photography, pipeline patrols, GPS / LIDAR mapping flights and cargo.

Quoting Flighty (Reply 36):
Mechanically, how would you go from 500 to 1500 hrs if not at a regional? Small cargo air? It will cause all other pilots jobs to pay less, because young 'uns will be truly desperate for hours.

Flight instructing will be the main way to go. Going forward someone coming into this profession will really have to want it. It was that way for a long time, then it became easy if you had the money or could get the money. I'm happy to see those days go away.


User currently offlinezeke From Hong Kong, joined Dec 2006, 8997 posts, RR: 75
Reply 40, posted (1 year 9 months 1 week 3 days 9 hours ago) and read 3075 times:

Quoting oswegobag (Reply 19):
How do you think the new FAA regulations requiring 1500 hours will affect things? Do you think that there is a chance the new law will be repealed before it goes into effect in August?

That is something that is incorrectly understood by industry.

The law states the requirement is to hold an ATP.

Currently an ATP holder needs 1500 hours, however there is a current push by a number of larger schools to have academic qualifications to be used in lieu of flight time, some schools are proposing to the FAA that an ATP could be issued at 500 hours.

Other pilot training aspects which are changing include the MPL, where a person can hold a CPL with 70 hours of flight time.



We are addicted to our thoughts. We cannot change anything if we cannot change our thinking – Santosh Kalwar
User currently offlineRyanairGuru From Australia, joined Oct 2006, 5366 posts, RR: 4
Reply 41, posted (1 year 9 months 1 week 3 days 9 hours ago) and read 3059 times:

Quoting saab2000 (Reply 34):
The furlough numbers published on sites like APC dot com are do not tell the whole story. Nr. 1, those numbers make no mention of how many have gone on to other airlines

Exactly, while you can say that there are X thousand pilots on furlough, those that wanted to remain in the industry are almost certainly with another carrier whether it be RAH, SkyWest, Spirit, Virgin or whoever. Therefore there is a shortage, since those "surplus" pilots aren't actually surplus.

Quoting oswegobag (Reply 19):
Do you think that there is a chance the new law will be repealed before it goes into effect in August?

Almost definitely not. The Bill was passed almost unanimously through Congress, quite a remarkable feat right now!



Worked Hard, Flew Right
User currently offlineMaverickM11 From United States of America, joined Apr 2000, 17418 posts, RR: 46
Reply 42, posted (1 year 9 months 1 week 3 days 9 hours ago) and read 3048 times:

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 35):
For HIGH PAYING flying jobs, there is a surplus of pilots. For low paying, there is a shortage. I'm not sure how many regionals will be hit.
Quoting AirlineCritic (Reply 30):

In other words, the more you pay, the more people you will get.

Isn't this a good thing? Pilot unions are always worried about a wage spiral down to the lowest common denominator. This could be the floor due to supply constraints.



E pur si muove -Galileo
User currently offlinebahadir From United States of America, joined Oct 2001, 1775 posts, RR: 10
Reply 43, posted (1 year 9 months 1 week 3 days 9 hours ago) and read 3060 times:

WSJ is very pro business paper, Roger Cohen is nothing but a patological liar (he was insisting that the Colgan FO was able to afford a hotel room for $35/night at EWR) .. The whole purpose of the article is to scare people so that management can get away with getting rid of this new rule or increase the retirement age to 67.

Pay the people that are doing this job a decent wage (but no Colgan people are facing entire contract being wiped out) and you will see people showing interest in the business again. Otherwise I would say that they are all reaping what they sow.



Earthbound misfit I
User currently offlineKELPkid From United States of America, joined Nov 2005, 6370 posts, RR: 3
Reply 44, posted (1 year 9 months 1 week 3 days 9 hours ago) and read 3074 times:

Training costs have skyrocketed in the last 10 years. Incomes have remained flat. The only ways to become a pilot: be a rich playboy, get a good paying job (very rare these days) and throw all your money into your training, or indebt yourself to infinity  

Been there, tried to do that, and decided to raise my family instead...although I've got 500 hours and have taken ground school for all ratings through ATP at a community college   While I was still single, I had a good paying job and could throw all my money into flying. But the rental rates for aircraft went nowhere but up and up...



Celebrating the birth of KELPkidJR on August 5, 2009 :-)
User currently offlineaviateur From United States of America, joined Apr 2004, 1352 posts, RR: 11
Reply 45, posted (1 year 9 months 1 week 3 days 8 hours ago) and read 3058 times:

Quoting mayor (Reply 21):
I think airlines like DL are going to have to drop their requirement of a 4 year degree, just to open up the pool of possible candidates.

No way. The idea that an airline like Delta (or any other major) will have a REMOTELY hard time recruiting qualified candidates, with thousands of airline hours AND a college degree, is simply absurd.

As I said above, this supposed "shortage" is something that will affect the REGIONAL sector only.

And the new rules, with the 1,500 hour requirement, etc., are merely restoring things back to the way they were 20 or so years ago. It wasn't all that long ago when the idea of grabbing a job with a regional airline ("commuters" we used to call them) with anything less than1,000 hours was almost unheard of. When I was hired by my first regional, in 1990, I had 1,500 hours and an FAA ATP certificate. Those were average to below-average qualifications among my 15 or so classmates. And that was to fly a 15-passenger Beech 99!


PS



Patrick Smith is an airline pilot, air travel columnist and author
User currently offlineaviateur From United States of America, joined Apr 2004, 1352 posts, RR: 11
Reply 46, posted (1 year 9 months 1 week 3 days 8 hours ago) and read 3052 times:

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 29):
Back then DL could draw upon Comair and ASA (anyone I've forgotten?) which were wholly owned subsidiaries. Similarly I think that CO drew from ExpressJet prior to the spin-off. Now, however, Eagle is the only in-house regional left, and its days as part of AMR are numbered. Therefore the majors are going to need to hire from other sources.

What in the world are you talking about? The regional sector accounts for more than 50 percent of all domestic flying in the United States. Are you suggesting there aren't enough highly experienced regional pilots for the majors to draw from? Are you KIDDING?

Some of the posts in this thread are truly baffling.


PS



Patrick Smith is an airline pilot, air travel columnist and author
User currently offlineaviateur From United States of America, joined Apr 2004, 1352 posts, RR: 11
Reply 47, posted (1 year 9 months 1 week 3 days 7 hours ago) and read 3049 times:

Quoting Flighty (Reply 36):
Mechanically, how would you go from 500 to 1500 hrs if not at a regional? Small cargo air? It will cause all other pilots jobs to pay less, because young 'uns will be truly desperate for hours.

I'm sorry, but are you joking?

As I was saying in the post above, the 1,500 hour requirement, etc., is merely restoring things back to historical norms. When I was hired by a regional in 1990, the AVERAGE qualifications among new-hires included 1,500 hours and an ATP.

How do you get to that level? Flight instructing is one option. I had 1,100 hours of CFI hours in my logbook before I began applying at the regionals. I hadn't applied sooner because, back then, I knew I had no chance.

My god, the sense of entitlement that has developed among some would-be pilots, spoiled by the absurd hiring trends of the past 5-7 years or so, when guys were getting hired into the right seat of an RJ with as little as 300 total hours. There will be no more of that, and there SHOULDN'T be.


PS



Patrick Smith is an airline pilot, air travel columnist and author
User currently offlineRyanairGuru From Australia, joined Oct 2006, 5366 posts, RR: 4
Reply 48, posted (1 year 9 months 1 week 3 days 7 hours ago) and read 3045 times:

Quoting aviateur (Reply 46):
The regional sector accounts for more than 50 percent of all domestic flying in the United States. Are you suggesting there aren't enough highly experienced regional pilots for the majors to draw from? Are you KIDDING?

That's not what I said at all. I said that AFAIK airlines previously recruited to mainline from their in-house regional, ExpressJet to CO, Comair to DL etc. Now that those airlines either don't exist or have been sold, then they are recruiting on the open market, accepting applicants from all airlines.



Worked Hard, Flew Right
User currently offlineTangowhisky From United States of America, joined Jun 2006, 910 posts, RR: 7
Reply 49, posted (1 year 9 months 1 week 3 days 7 hours ago) and read 3044 times:

If there is an up and coming pilot shortage, why does the pay suck for new pilots? This is just a spin to attract a flood of new candidates. Market forces always catch up, in this case, it is saying too many pilots coming out of schools.


Only the paranoid survive
User currently offlineaviateur From United States of America, joined Apr 2004, 1352 posts, RR: 11
Reply 50, posted (1 year 9 months 1 week 3 days 7 hours ago) and read 3049 times:

[quote=RyanairGuru,reply=48]That's not what I said at all. I said that AFAIK airlines previously recruited to mainline from their in-house regional, ExpressJet to CO, Comair to DL etc.


That's not true though.

They recruited from across the board: in-house regionals, outside regionals, etc. In fact there was probably a slight reluctance to recruit from affiliate regionals that were wholly owned, since replacing those pilots increased training costs twofold.



Patrick Smith is an airline pilot, air travel columnist and author
User currently offlineRyanairGuru From Australia, joined Oct 2006, 5366 posts, RR: 4
Reply 51, posted (1 year 9 months 1 week 3 days 7 hours ago) and read 3034 times:

Quoting aviateur (Reply 50):
They recruited from across the board: in-house regionals, outside regionals, etc.

That's why I said "as far as I know" - I was clearly misinformed/forgotten



Worked Hard, Flew Right
User currently offlineaviateur From United States of America, joined Apr 2004, 1352 posts, RR: 11
Reply 52, posted (1 year 9 months 1 week 3 days 6 hours ago) and read 2943 times:

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 51):
That's why I said "as far as I know" - I was clearly misinformed/forgotten

No trouble at all. But yes, it's true: recruitment was across the board.

Some regionals have had so-called "flow-through" agreements with their major carrier affiliates, but these are exceptions to the rule and they only apply to a small percentage of pilots moving on.

PS



Patrick Smith is an airline pilot, air travel columnist and author
User currently offlineMir From United States of America, joined Jan 2004, 21554 posts, RR: 55
Reply 53, posted (1 year 9 months 1 week 3 days 6 hours ago) and read 2988 times:

Quoting saab2000 (Reply 34):
Why would someone who has that level of experience grovel for a job flying for $25/hour or less to start with? And after a few years top out at some carriers flying EMB-175/190 for $36/hour?

To have $36/hour be top pay, even for an FO, is ridiculous. You can make more than that as an FO on a seven-seat jet in the corporate/charter world.

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 35):
For HIGH PAYING flying jobs, there is a surplus of pilots. For low paying, there is a shortage.

Which you would think would make the payscales even out a bit. Well, one could hope.

-Mir



7 billion, one nation, imagination...it's a beautiful day
User currently offlineFlighty From United States of America, joined Apr 2007, 8468 posts, RR: 2
Reply 54, posted (1 year 9 months 1 week 3 days 6 hours ago) and read 2937 times:

Quoting indiansbucs (Reply 38):
If airlines like Etihad have these kind of problem recruiting to do these kind of programs, even though they offer a lot of benefits and high salaries... a shortage is evident in the world industry. And it isnt just Etihad...

Makes sense. Actually I thought you were saying the opposite -- people can be hired off the street -- but now your meaning is clearer! Thank you.

Quoting aviateur (Reply 47):
My god, the sense of entitlement that has developed among some would-be pilots, spoiled by the absurd hiring trends of the past 5-7 years or so, when guys were getting hired into the right seat of an RJ with as little as 300 total hours. T

Yeah, but that was actually a trough of hiring... capacity has gone down, and virtually no-one aged out for 5 whole years. This "crisis" would have 2 causes -- increased turnover of pilots due to age 65 and the 1,500 hour requirement. I do think turnover will increase for self evident reasons.

But the 1,500 hour issue, it was nice to hear perspectives on that. I am a beancounter type with no idea about flight. It seems like the US will continue to supply enough pilots.


User currently offlineinfiniti329 From United States of America, joined Jul 2012, 643 posts, RR: 0
Reply 55, posted (1 year 9 months 1 week 3 days 6 hours ago) and read 2929 times:

It baffles me that some on here think that the pilot shortage will not effect the majors.. Maybe it wont directly but it will effect them indirectly esp. If they suck the regionals dry. Think about it if the regional cant run the regional flights the majors need the majors will be hurt.The industry it so inter-connected that when one gets hurt someone else will feel it to. This something that majors may need to step in to intervene in to protect their regional ops.

User currently offlineweb500sjc From United States of America, joined Sep 2009, 735 posts, RR: 0
Reply 56, posted (1 year 9 months 1 week 3 days 5 hours ago) and read 2923 times:
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Quoting Flighty (Reply 54):
This "crisis" would have 2 causes -- increased turnover of pilots due to age 65 and the 1,500 hour requirement. I do think turnover will increase for self evident reasons.

Im surprised no one has brought up the third reason-the new duty limits. While the duty limits don't apply too cargo pilots, they certainly apply to passenger pilots. overall there is a threefold perfect storm

1) age 65, all the retirements that have been held off for the last 5 years will begin again.
2) the 1500 hour rule (and because of the ATP req. also 23 years old), temporarily limiting the amount of pilots entering the very bottom of the airline chain (and just for news I have heard of people coming out of college that were offered a job only to have the job offer their class canceled because the incoming pilots would not be able to build the necessary hours, it started with some of the June 2012 class entries at regionals).
3) new duty rules, that would require an increase in staffing at airlines to cover current schedules.

so we have pilots retiring, more pilots needed overall, and a reduced number of available pilots to choose from.



Boiler Up!
User currently offlinelightsaber From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 12981 posts, RR: 100
Reply 57, posted (1 year 9 months 1 week 3 days 4 hours ago) and read 2925 times:
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Quoting infiniti329 (Reply 55):
It baffles me that some on here think that the pilot shortage will not effect the majors.. Maybe it wont directly but it will effect them indirectly esp. If they suck the regionals dry.

It will first hit the business jet pilots. This will just accelerate the need to up-gauge to fewer 76 RJs instead of 50 seat RJs. There will be some impact, but the reality is the majors pay enough to not care.

And as far as B6, WN, Allergiant, or Spirit care, there is no downside.

Quoting infiniti329 (Reply 55):
This something that majors may need to step in to intervene in to protect their regional ops.

How could they do so economically? Nothing is going to stop the four above mentioned airlines from pilfering pilots. This will have a *small* boost in pay for the regionals. What will happen is the regionals will partner with those except to help train pilots. For example, I could see DL working with a corporate jet vendor to help a few pilots gain the ATP.

Quoting web500sjc (Reply 56):
so we have pilots retiring, more pilots needed overall, and a reduced number of available pilots to choose from.

At a time the military will be releasing a number of pilots and the regionals reduce their demand due to larger gauge RJs. I think there will be some crunch, but not as bad as some project.

Quoting Flighty (Reply 54):
It seems like the US will continue to supply enough pilots.

   After a transitional shock.    Anyway, there is already a push to let the universities and military produce pilots with an ATP earlier. Thus, the rule will be circumvented enough to prevent an economic shock.

Oh, I think the minimum pay of pilots with ATPs will go up. That is a given. However, that isn't saying much as the current FO pay at a regional is below a living wage. Which will ruin the economics of flying smaller planes...    Time to upgauge for fuel burn per passenger anyway...

Lightsaber



Societies that achieve a critical mass of ideas achieve self sustaining growth; others stagnate.
User currently offlinemayor From United States of America, joined Mar 2008, 10373 posts, RR: 14
Reply 58, posted (1 year 9 months 1 week 3 days 4 hours ago) and read 2912 times:

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 57):
For example, I could see DL working with a corporate jet vendor to help a few pilots gain the ATP.

I know that Comair folded, but is the Comair Flight Academy still operational?



"A committee is a group of the unprepared, appointed by the unwilling, to do the unnecessary"----Fred Allen
User currently offlineB727FA From United States of America, joined Jun 2011, 756 posts, RR: 0
Reply 59, posted (1 year 9 months 1 week 3 days 3 hours ago) and read 2928 times:

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 29):
Back then DL could draw upon Comair

I'm trying to scour the list for an OH pilot hired at DL post 2001...

Quoting mayor (Reply 58):
I know that Comair folded, but is the Comair Flight Academy still operational?

It's the Delta Connection Academy now.



My comments/opinions are my own and are not to be construed as the opinion(s) of my employer.
User currently offlinesilentbob From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 2071 posts, RR: 1
Reply 60, posted (1 year 9 months 1 week 3 days 3 hours ago) and read 2918 times:

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 29):
Edit: I'd completely forgotten about US, and that PSA and Piedmont are wholly owned. Does anyone know if US hires from those carriers, or whether PSA and Piedmont pilots have to compete on the open market for jobs at mainline?

US takes a few, though the number is restricted.

Quoting saab2000 (Reply 34):
There will be a problem in this industry. It's going to get very interesting in the next 36 months.

I couldn't possibly agree more.

Quoting Tangowhisky (Reply 49):
If there is an up and coming pilot shortage, why does the pay suck for new pilots? This is just a spin to attract a flood of new candidates. Market forces always catch up, in this case, it is saying too many pilots coming out of schools.

The pay sucks because that's what the airlines have been able to negotiate over the last few years. It will be interesting to see how they are able to attract new talent and still fly for the rates they have already contracted.


User currently offlineMir From United States of America, joined Jan 2004, 21554 posts, RR: 55
Reply 61, posted (1 year 9 months 1 week 3 days ago) and read 2917 times:

Quoting B727FA (Reply 59):
Quoting mayor (Reply 58):
I know that Comair folded, but is the Comair Flight Academy still operational?

It's the Delta Connection Academy now.

Delta got rid of it a while ago. I think it's now called the Aerosim Flight Academy.

-Mir



7 billion, one nation, imagination...it's a beautiful day
User currently offlinezeke From Hong Kong, joined Dec 2006, 8997 posts, RR: 75
Reply 62, posted (1 year 9 months 1 week 2 days 23 hours ago) and read 2935 times:

Quoting aviateur (Reply 45):
And the new rules, with the 1,500 hour requirement,

The new rule is not 1500 hrs.



We are addicted to our thoughts. We cannot change anything if we cannot change our thinking – Santosh Kalwar
User currently offlinebjorn14 From Norway, joined Feb 2010, 3411 posts, RR: 2
Reply 63, posted (1 year 9 months 1 week 2 days 20 hours ago) and read 2926 times:

Not sure how this will work out but if many US entry level pilots go overseas to fly to get to the 1500 hour level. It could put pressure on the afforementioned industries in which serve as traditional time-building areas.


"I want to know the voice of God the rest is just details" --A. Einstein
User currently offlinelightsaber From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 12981 posts, RR: 100
Reply 64, posted (1 year 9 months 1 week 2 days 19 hours ago) and read 2915 times:
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Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 41):
Therefore there is a shortage, since those "surplus" pilots aren't actually surplus.

Yes and know. I know about a dozen 'desk jokey' pilots who would love to fly again. Some would be willing to take a 2/3rds pay cut! Some... Pay would have to be parity. The issue is pay.

Quoting Tangowhisky (Reply 49):
If there is an up and coming pilot shortage, why does the pay suck for new pilots? This is just a spin to attract a flood of new candidates.

Because so many people want to become a pilot. Since the requirement is just to gain an ATP, I see the flight schools changing their curriculum to be * extremely* ATP focused. Perhaps by adjusting the classes into a 5 year program with more flight time (but not the 1500 hours).

Thus they will sell the 'upcoming pilot shortage' (as they have for as long as I can remember) to new candidates. Oh, pay will have to go up. Some routes will have to be cut.   

Lightsaber



Societies that achieve a critical mass of ideas achieve self sustaining growth; others stagnate.
User currently offlineFlighty From United States of America, joined Apr 2007, 8468 posts, RR: 2
Reply 65, posted (1 year 9 months 1 week 2 days 15 hours ago) and read 2879 times:

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 64):
Yes and know. I know about a dozen 'desk jokey' pilots who would love to fly again. Some would be willing to take a 2/3rds pay cut! Some... Pay would have to be parity. The issue is pay.

If the pay were not based on seniority at your company, maybe those individuals would be paid much more fairly. Just a thought.


User currently offlinesaab2000 From Switzerland, joined Jun 2001, 1610 posts, RR: 11
Reply 66, posted (1 year 9 months 1 week 2 days 15 hours ago) and read 2878 times:

There are not enough jobs doing banner towing, pipeline inspection, etc. to have 1000 pilots per year (minimum industry retirements, it'll be more annually) getting the requisite 1500 hours for the ATP. Ain't gonna happen. There is simply no way the industry will continue to function with a de facto 1500 hour rule (ATP mins) in a few years. All eligible pilots will be sucked up.

And with the industry being so incredibly reactive, as opposed to proactive, I don't see it being fixed in a good manner.

I'm just along for the ride. I have a decent job at a decent company, thousands of hours of jet PIC, an ATP years ago, etc. I am not worried for myself. But it will be interesting to see what's coming. I hate the word "Shortage" but it's not going to be surplus, that's for sure.



smrtrthnu
User currently offlinezeke From Hong Kong, joined Dec 2006, 8997 posts, RR: 75
Reply 67, posted (1 year 9 months 1 week 2 days 14 hours ago) and read 2880 times:

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 64):
Because so many people want to become a pilot. Since the requirement is just to gain an ATP, I see the flight schools changing their curriculum to be * extremely* ATP focused. Perhaps by adjusting the classes into a 5 year program with more flight time (but not the 1500 hours).

This is exactly what will happen, the ATP will be issued through approved schools after attaining something like 500 flight hours in an approved course. There is a large push from the ICAO level to adjust the flight time down, however to compensate that with simulator time, so a person may have 500 hrs flight time, and 750 hours of simulator time. For example under the ICAO MPL guidelines, a person can gain the commercial MPL with only 70 hours of flight time through an approved school.

The schools will be able to run the simulators 24/7 (rain, hail, shine, day, night), and probably be able to turn students out in 18 months from zero to ATP.

This is what happens when politicians get involved with knee jerk reactions.



We are addicted to our thoughts. We cannot change anything if we cannot change our thinking – Santosh Kalwar
User currently offlineMir From United States of America, joined Jan 2004, 21554 posts, RR: 55
Reply 68, posted (1 year 9 months 1 week 2 days 14 hours ago) and read 2882 times:

Quoting bjorn14 (Reply 63):
Not sure how this will work out but if many US entry level pilots go overseas to fly to get to the 1500 hour level. It could put pressure on the afforementioned industries in which serve as traditional time-building areas.

Unlikely. The market for expat pilots overseas isn't incredibly strong for low-time guys. There's a lot of demand for more experienced guys to be mentor pilots as countries train their own pilots, but that doesn't really help people who are trying to build time.

Quoting saab2000 (Reply 66):
There are not enough jobs doing banner towing, pipeline inspection, etc. to have 1000 pilots per year (minimum industry retirements, it'll be more annually) getting the requisite 1500 hours for the ATP.

   A lot of the jobs that used to be filled by GA have been replaced. Traffic watch uses cameras now instead of aircraft. Cancelled checks are dealt with electronically. Small freight has been absorbed into larger freight, meaning people need more experience to fly those planes. Instructing is the only really strong pathway left, and I can imagine serious wage pressure being put on that sector in the next few years.

Quoting zeke (Reply 67):
For example under the ICAO MPL guidelines, a person can gain the commercial MPL with only 70 hours of flight time through an approved school.

Now I'm all in favor of reduced minimums if the training is good (hell, the military does it, foreign carriers do it), but 70 hours of time in an aircraft before carrying passengers onboard is ridiculously low. Yes, simulation has come a long way, but it is NOT the real thing (and I train on some of the newest simulator models out there - they're really good, but they're not that good).

-Mir



7 billion, one nation, imagination...it's a beautiful day
User currently offlineXFSUgimpLB41X From United States of America, joined Aug 2000, 4194 posts, RR: 37
Reply 69, posted (1 year 9 months 1 week 2 days 14 hours ago) and read 2869 times:

Quoting Flighty (Reply 36):
Mechanically, how would you go from 500 to 1500 hrs if not at a regional? Small cargo air? It will cause all other pilots jobs to pay less, because young 'uns will be truly desperate for hours.

As has already been answered, there are numerous ways to build that time- much of mine was simply flight instructing. It takes a couple years, but is the pilot this decade so entitled that they can't teach for a while? I networked, diversified and flew some small corporate stuff as well while teaching. It's not that difficult! The key is to ensure the pilots have an appropriate diverse experience foundation to where a. they have some idea of what it means to command an aircraft, and b. they have scared themselves a few times to where they understand how to respect the aircraft and the consequences.

Quoting zeke (Reply 67):
The schools will be able to run the simulators 24/7 (rain, hail, shine, day, night), and probably be able to turn students out in 18 months from zero to ATP.

This is what happens when politicians get involved with knee jerk reactions.

And that is exactly what must be prevented. I abhor the exemption for 4-year aviation degree students (they turn out no better than non aviation degree pilots- in fact many times worse and much farther in debt!), and the idea for the ATP is experience! There was a short stint in the late 2000s where low time pilots were hired, but that was a blip on the radar yet so many people act like that was the norm!

For decades, it has taken at least 1500 hours to be competitive to get hired at a regional. In 2003, I had 1700 hours and almost 400 multi-engine time before I could get a call from a regional. There is zero reason why people can't get that now other than lack of understanding on networking.

The good thing is, at least at DL, the airline is paring down its regional network by several hundred airplanes and is increasing the size of its mainline network. Hopefully that trend will continue as it sets the bar of pay higher, as well as the promise of career progression higher. Continuing to do that will be the only way to weather this "shortage," not lowering requirements to try to fill low paying jobs.



Chicks dig winglets.
User currently offlineaffirmative From France, joined Jul 2009, 351 posts, RR: 0
Reply 70, posted (1 year 9 months 1 week 2 days 12 hours ago) and read 2872 times:

If there will be a shortage among the US majors I can assure you that there will be a mass exodus from EK, EY and QR with pilots wanting to move back to the US. I know a few pilots that was working in the middle east during the crisis and once the majors started to hire again (BA, LH and others) they were really quick to move. Most of them don't even mind the pay cut if they can move back home. Asian carriers are screaming for Captains and are constantly raising offers, still no pilots apply. I just saw a contract paying $200.000 p/a on a 40 on 20 off scheme if you have a command rating on a 777..

There's a funny anecdote floating around about EK when they went to a major Airline staffer asking how many pilots they had in their database, they answered; about 2000.. Once EK got their hands on it they realized 80% of them already worked for EK..  



I love the smell of Jet-A1 in the morning...
User currently offlineMir From United States of America, joined Jan 2004, 21554 posts, RR: 55
Reply 71, posted (1 year 9 months 1 week 2 days 11 hours ago) and read 2867 times:

Quoting XFSUgimpLB41X (Reply 69):
It takes a couple years, but is the pilot this decade so entitled that they can't teach for a while?

The pilot this decade has seen the regionals become a career. That's going to make one a bit less interested in having to invest the time (or in some cases money) in getting an ATP.

-Mir



7 billion, one nation, imagination...it's a beautiful day
User currently offlinenorcal From United States of America, joined Mar 2005, 2459 posts, RR: 5
Reply 72, posted (1 year 9 months 1 week 2 days 11 hours ago) and read 2870 times:

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 64):
Because so many people want to become a pilot. Since the requirement is just to gain an ATP, I see the flight schools changing their curriculum to be * extremely* ATP focused. Perhaps by adjusting the classes into a 5 year program with more flight time (but not the 1500 hours).

Who is going to pay for it? Have you stopped by a local FBO to see how expensive flight training is today for an hour in a cessna? College students are going into debt to the tune of $100,000 to meet the old requirements. That got people in the door at 250-300 hours.

How on earth will they afford it and get the required time, even if it's reduced a little? CFI used to be an easy path but now there are less students learning how to fly because no one wants to be airline pilots. Now you have a chicken and egg type scenario.

The higher cost of general aviation has also eliminated a lot of the other time building jobs making it increasingly difficult for people to break in to the profession.

There is a big shortage coming to the regional airlines. I know because I've personally talked to a couple of recruiters at a job fair (which btw the regionals had largely empty tables, applicants were looking elsewhere) who have told me as much. The pool is just about as dry as it can be.

The only thing that'll solve this problem is higher pay. You increase the pay, you'll have more people interested in coming into the profession. Plain and simple. Going $100,000 in debt for a $20,000 a year job where you are treated like crap isn't worth it anymore.

For years the flight schools were able to sell the dream of flying to starry eyed kids but now the truth is out and the job market has reacted.

Republic declared that it was going to hire 850 pilots next year but yet what growth opportunities are out there with both Delta and United (likely) downsizing the overall size of their fleets. American is mostly reshuffling there existing flying around and adding a little. An eventual US Airways mreger will result in more regional downsizing likely eliminating the growth at American.

Eagle is planning on hiring 100 this year and 400 next year, not because they are growing (they are shrinking, ATRs and ERJs being parked) but because they are losing people left and right.

Neither one of these airlines will reach this goal unless someone, like Pinnacle, folds or furloughs. That's not attracting new talent, that is simply recycling old talent and is a very short term fix.


User currently offlineRyanairGuru From Australia, joined Oct 2006, 5366 posts, RR: 4
Reply 73, posted (1 year 9 months 1 week 2 days 10 hours ago) and read 2861 times:

Quoting affirmative (Reply 70):
Most of them don't even mind the pay cut if they can move back home.

I'm not disagreeing with you, but the one person I know at EK says that he's never coming home, at least until he retires. The money is simply too good.

Quoting norcal (Reply 72):
Neither one of these airlines will reach this goal unless someone, like Pinnacle, folds or furloughs.

Comair and Colgan have both folded last couple of months, there's a few regional pilots on the street right now. Also RAH can pillage from the likes of Cape Air or Great Lakes if those pilots wanted to move up.



Worked Hard, Flew Right
User currently offlineXFSUgimpLB41X From United States of America, joined Aug 2000, 4194 posts, RR: 37
Reply 74, posted (1 year 9 months 1 week 2 days 10 hours ago) and read 2864 times:

Quoting Mir (Reply 71):
The pilot this decade has seen the regionals become a career. That's going to make one a bit less interested in having to invest the time (or in some cases money) in getting an ATP.

I was a pilot that started this decade... the regionals sure weren't a career for me, nor for almost all of my peers that had the motivation and ability to move on.

FYI- the new law states that the ATP has to be completed before they start flying pax, not before hiring. 1500 hours will be the minimum (as it already was for many many years anyways, but I digest...) as their checkride in whatever aircraft they are checking out in is easily made into an ATP ride (just like my type ride was for my upgrade to CRJ captain).

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 73):
I'm not disagreeing with you, but the one person I know at EK says that he's never coming home, at least until he retires. The money is simply too good.

EK is probably the best international deal out there- if you can deal with living in the expensive oven that is Dubai. Others with the likes of Etihad are certainly second tier and beat the living tar out of their pilots flying them straight to the ICAO maximum.

The freighters in the US look like bankers hours compared to the carriers pushing their pilots to the ICAO max.



Chicks dig winglets.
User currently offlineMir From United States of America, joined Jan 2004, 21554 posts, RR: 55
Reply 75, posted (1 year 9 months 1 week 2 days 10 hours ago) and read 2862 times:

Quoting XFSUgimpLB41X (Reply 74):
I was a pilot that started this decade...

You said you got hired in 2003, which was during the previous hiring boom. That's before the downturn happened, and before pretty much everyone who's currently in or recently removed from flight school started their training. So the situations aren't really analogous.

Quoting XFSUgimpLB41X (Reply 74):
the regionals sure weren't a career for me, nor for almost all of my peers that had the motivation and ability to move on.

But you can't deny that they have become a career for those who just don't want to uproot their lives to go sit on the bottom of the seniority list at a mainline carrier. They just got caught in the wrong place at the wrong time in their lives, and that's no fault of their own.

-Mir



7 billion, one nation, imagination...it's a beautiful day
User currently offlineaffirmative From France, joined Jul 2009, 351 posts, RR: 0
Reply 76, posted (1 year 9 months 1 week 2 days 9 hours ago) and read 2852 times:

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 73):
I'm not disagreeing with you, but the one person I know at EK says that he's never coming home, at least until he retires. The money is simply too good.

To be fair I know a few of those too. And I can see that since the golden paychecks in Europe for command positions are a thing of the past. One of my friends down there basically went from an 8000 euro salary tax free doing about 90h a month to a 5500 euro salary minus 30% tax for 55h a month doing charter. But I can see that it is difficult once you get used to the lifestyle to go back to Europe, I lived there for 18 months and wouldn't mind going back but I'm still about a 1000h short..

Quoting XFSUgimpLB41X (Reply 74):
EK is probably the best international deal out there- if you can deal with living in the expensive oven that is Dubai. Others with the likes of Etihad are certainly second tier and beat the living tar out of their pilots flying them straight to the ICAO maximum.

EK, EY and QR are basically the same. They will fly an f/o 100h per month, rumors say that some fly more but the GCAA caps it at 114h and with the cap at 900/year you'll still get a lot of vacation. The people I know that have worked for both EK and EY tend to prefer EY, they are experienced pilots so I guess they haven't seen the grunt of EY in the narrow body fleet but I sense that EK pilots are less content than EY pilots. I don't know anyone at QR but the rumors at the other forum says that they're the same if not worse.. But I guess you can take quite a lot of cr*p for upwards of 11-12k euros per month in a command position.

Secondly, Dubai is not expensive. People living there makes loads of money and many likes to spend it. My living costs in the last two years in Europe have been roughly the same. But since your neighbor has a Porsche Cayenne or a Range Rover you have to have one too, right?  



I love the smell of Jet-A1 in the morning...
User currently offlineXFSUgimpLB41X From United States of America, joined Aug 2000, 4194 posts, RR: 37
Reply 77, posted (1 year 9 months 1 week 2 days 8 hours ago) and read 2845 times:

Quoting Mir (Reply 75):
But you can't deny that they have become a career for those who just don't want to uproot their lives to go sit on the bottom of the seniority list at a mainline carrier.

This may be a bit blunt, but that's the lamest excuse in the book- mostly put forth by those that have tried and failed to get out. Quality of life, pay, and career potential are light years beyond any regional. Only someone hired when they were around 50 years old or has some serious secondary income could every justify risking staying at a regional.



Chicks dig winglets.
User currently offlineXFSUgimpLB41X From United States of America, joined Aug 2000, 4194 posts, RR: 37
Reply 78, posted (1 year 9 months 1 week 2 days 8 hours ago) and read 2838 times:

Quoting Mir (Reply 75):

You said you got hired in 2003, which was during the previous hiring boom. That's before the downturn happened, and before pretty much everyone who's currently in or recently removed from flight school started their training. So the situations aren't really analogous.

I got hired while there were still thousands on the street and even more being put on the street. I'd hardly call that a boom.

Those recently removed from flight school are at the start of a major boom. They'll be able to progress quite quickly and there will be plenty of opportunities. This ATP qualifications stuff is a complete red herring... no way around it. There was a bit of a no man's land for those starting at a regional in 2007-09, but even so if they wanted to move on to something better (not necessarily a legacy), many could have that chance.



Chicks dig winglets.
User currently offlinenorcal From United States of America, joined Mar 2005, 2459 posts, RR: 5
Reply 79, posted (1 year 9 months 1 week 2 days 8 hours ago) and read 2833 times:

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 73):

Colgan was a small operation and their pilots are being rolled into Pinnacle, they aren't hitting the streets.

Comair was also a very small operation at the end, about 7 aircraft. Maybe 100 pilots total on the high end. They have been winding down for awhile, so those pilots are mostly spoken for. All of those pilots had been Captains at one point and thus have PIC time, they can go get jobs at majors and LCCs (not that PIC time is a requirement but it helps). There are also a lot of opportunities to in the corporate world and over seas. Some will leave the industry. You simply won't see many guys as senior as the Comair pilots start over at a regional (possibly commuting) on reserve for $20,000 a year. There are better opportunities out there.

Cape Air is a 230 pilot operation and many of those guys choose to work there for quality of life reasons. They like the flying and many can be based at home. Furthermore, many of them actually make more money than first year regional FOs

Great Lakes is a 300 pilot operation. People go there and suffer that place for the quick upgrade. They chose not to go to the regionals so they could get their PIC time and move on to a major. There won't be many heading to the bottom of a regional.

Bottom line, even if RAH and Eagle got every single pilot from Colgan, Comair, Cape Air, and Great Lakes they'd still fall short. They won't get all those pilots, getting 50% of them would be incredible.


User currently offlineaviateur From United States of America, joined Apr 2004, 1352 posts, RR: 11
Reply 80, posted (1 year 9 months 1 week 2 days 7 hours ago) and read 2828 times:

Quoting XFSUgimpLB41X (Reply 77):
This may be a bit blunt, but that's the lamest excuse in the book- mostly put forth by those that have tried and failed to get out. Quality of life, pay, and career potential are light years beyond any regional. Only someone hired when they were around 50 years old or has some serious secondary income could every justify risking staying at a regional.

I couldn't agree with you more. The differences between working at a major and working at a regional are night and day.


PS



Patrick Smith is an airline pilot, air travel columnist and author
User currently offlineDeltaRules From United States of America, joined Sep 2001, 3737 posts, RR: 9
Reply 81, posted (1 year 9 months 1 week 2 days 4 hours ago) and read 2811 times:

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 35):
And the WSJ notes an 'out' The FAA is trying to soften the blow. It has proposed a rule that would lower the requirement to 750 hours for military aviators and 1,000 hours for graduates of four-year aviation universities.

Is there any truth to the rumblings that the 1,000 hour rule would only be for "selected" aviation universities? Meaning if you want to go to Ohio State, the University of Cincinnati, or any other non-ERAU school with a Part 141 program, you're still out of luck?

Quoting Mir (Reply 61):
Delta got rid of it a while ago. I think it's now called the Aerosim Flight Academy.

Delta Connection Academy, originally based at SFB and, for a period, expanding to DAY, New Bedford, MA, Jacksonville, Houston, and the Ft. Lauderdale area before contracting again fairly quickly, is now Aerosim. I don't know if they still have any satellite bases (DAY, New Bedford, and I think one other closed in 2007-2008), but the change happened within the last year and a half or so.

Quoting norcal (Reply 72):
Who is going to pay for it? Have you stopped by a local FBO to see how expensive flight training is today for an hour in a cessna? College students are going into debt to the tune of $100,000 to meet the old requirements. That got people in the door at 250-300 hours.

Yep. The last place I knew of that had rental fees of under $100/hr wet for a C172 jumped from $90 to $100/hr in 2010.

I'm currently paying $125/hr wet for a C172SP at a local FBO. I still have 53 hours before I reach the magic 250 for Commercial, though some of that will also be with an instructor at $35-40/hr. Do the math.



Let's Kick the Tires & Light the Fires!!
User currently offlinelightsaber From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 12981 posts, RR: 100
Reply 82, posted (1 year 9 months 1 week 2 days 4 hours ago) and read 2818 times:
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Quoting Flighty (Reply 65):
Quoting lightsaber (Reply 64):
Yes and know. I know about a dozen 'desk jokey' pilots who would love to fly again. Some would be willing to take a 2/3rds pay cut! Some... Pay would have to be parity. The issue is pay.

If the pay were not based on seniority at your company, maybe those individuals would be paid much more fairly. Just a thought.

Pay at my company has ZERO input with seniority. That is the issue. They are paid too well to step over to a new company with seniority based pay. Hence, why they are *not* flying but instead doing flight test related engineering.   

I should say, my old company. My new job has nothing to do with flight test. Again, with enough of a pay boost, enough pilots would come out of the wood work. How many routes wouldn't make it with such pay though?

Quoting zeke (Reply 67):
There is a large push from the ICAO level to adjust the flight time down, however to compensate that with simulator time, so a person may have 500 hrs flight time, and 750 hours of simulator time. For example under the ICAO MPL guidelines, a person can gain the commercial MPL with only 70 hours of flight time through an approved school.

The schools will be able to run the simulators 24/7 (rain, hail, shine, day, night), and probably be able to turn students out in 18 months from zero to ATP.

This is what happens when politicians get involved with knee jerk reactions.

Agree 100%. You laid out what I think is the most logical scenario for a 5 year college program.

Quoting norcal (Reply 72):
How on earth will they afford it and get the required time, even if it's reduced a little?

It will be reduced more than a little. Probably by about 2/3rds flight with substitute simulator time as Zeke noted. It would be part of a 5 year degree in aviation. The system will adapt. I look forward to seeing the first "Green Program" that pushes the limit on minimum actual flight time with a high simulator and classroom portion. Seriously, what better way for a university to sell itself than with the 'lowest carbon footprint to an ATP.'   Does anyone really want to bet against that prediction?   

Quoting DeltaRules (Reply 81):
Is there any truth to the rumblings that the 1,000 hour rule would only be for "selected" aviation universities?

I'm hearing rumblings of a lower rule (along the lines of what Zeke noted) with any university that is willing to create an accredited program. I do not claim to know what 'accredited' will end up looking like.

Lightsaber



Societies that achieve a critical mass of ideas achieve self sustaining growth; others stagnate.
User currently offlineFlighty From United States of America, joined Apr 2007, 8468 posts, RR: 2
Reply 83, posted (1 year 9 months 1 week 2 days 3 hours ago) and read 2802 times:

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 82):
Pay at my company has ZERO input with seniority. That is the issue. They are paid too well to step over to a new company with seniority based pay. Hence, why they are *not* flying but instead doing flight test related engineering.

I should say, my old company. My new job has nothing to do with flight test. Again, with enough of a pay boost, enough pilots would come out of the wood work. How many routes wouldn't make it with such pay though?

Yes, my comment was so badly worded, just was calling out seniority in general. Worker shortages do not happen without the intervention of bizarre rules such as seniority or the 1500 rule or what have you... barriers between consenting job applicants and hiring managers. Such barriers make some people happy, and others unhappy.


User currently offlineMir From United States of America, joined Jan 2004, 21554 posts, RR: 55
Reply 84, posted (1 year 9 months 1 week 2 days 3 hours ago) and read 2807 times:

Quoting DeltaRules (Reply 81):
Is there any truth to the rumblings that the 1,000 hour rule would only be for "selected" aviation universities? Meaning if you want to go to Ohio State, the University of Cincinnati, or any other non-ERAU school with a Part 141 program, you're still out of luck?

From what I heard, the school would have to have an accredited aviation program, which means pretty much any college could be eligible, but that schools such as ATP or Flight Safety Academy would not. The idea being not so much that the flight training one would receive would be better, but that having a degree would involve being exposed to a broader base of knowledge, which one could substitute for a certain amount of in-flight experience.

Whether that's practical or not I don't really know - the concept is sound IMO, but I have my doubts about the quality control aspect.

-Mir



7 billion, one nation, imagination...it's a beautiful day
User currently offlinenorcal From United States of America, joined Mar 2005, 2459 posts, RR: 5
Reply 85, posted (1 year 9 months 1 week 1 day 22 hours ago) and read 2800 times:

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 82):
It will be reduced more than a little. Probably by about 2/3rds flight with substitute simulator time as Zeke noted. It would be part of a 5 year degree in aviation. The system will adapt. I look forward to seeing the first "Green Program" that pushes the limit on minimum actual flight time with a high simulator and classroom portion. Seriously, what better way for a university to sell itself than with the 'lowest carbon footprint to an ATP.'   Does anyone really want to bet against that prediction?

That is still a lot of flight time and it still doesn't remove the expense factor. People were going through 4 year programs and accumulating $100,000 worth of debt to get 250-300 hours and a job right out of college.. I doubt 700 hours would be the additional 700 hours of time would be substituted with simulators. Buying enough simulators and building the facilities to house them won't be cheap. Furthermore, simulator time is cheaper but by no means cheap to buy. The expenses are still going to be much higher than the old days.

All that additional training and hours requirements would likely add at least a year onto a college program, maybe two.

I still don't agree that $100,000+ of debt justifies a $20,000 a year job. With higher training costs that equation gets more unfavorably skewed.

The pay has to come up or there will be a shortage.


User currently offlineAviRaider From United States of America, joined Nov 2007, 183 posts, RR: 0
Reply 86, posted (1 year 9 months 1 week 1 day 19 hours ago) and read 2802 times:

Quoting norcal (Reply 85):
I still don't agree that $100,000+ of debt justifies a $20,000 a year job. With higher training costs that equation gets more unfavorably skewed.

The pay has to come up or there will be a shortage.

I couldn't agree more. This is why I decided against being an airline pilot during college, I just couldn't stomach the idea of that much debt for little gain. It's a decision I still ponder about but I like being debt free. I told my wife that if I could get all of those ratings and hours for free or paid for or something drastic changed in the cost structure I would seriously consider going into that profession.

[Edited 2012-11-15 06:05:33]

User currently offlineDashTrash From United States of America, joined exactly 8 years ago today! , 1522 posts, RR: 2
Reply 87, posted (1 year 9 months 1 week 1 day 18 hours ago) and read 2805 times:

Quoting norcal (Reply 79):
They have been winding down for awhile, so those pilots are mostly spoken for.

Not quite true.

Quoting norcal (Reply 79):
All of those pilots had been Captains at one point and thus have PIC time, they can go get jobs at majors and LCCs (not that PIC time is a requirement but it helps).

Not true at all. Good friend of mine on the 700 there was on '06 hire and never had the seniority to hold CA. He lasted there one week before the shutdown.

Quoting norcal (Reply 79):
There are also a lot of opportunities to in the corporate world and over seas.

Overseas, yes. Corporate, hell no. Corporate operators want guys already current and typed in the aircraft their flying. When I got furloughed from NJA I had just been through recurrent, thought I'd get picked up quickly to fly something else. That was in 2010. I haven't flown an airplane since then.

Quoting norcal (Reply 79):
You simply won't see many guys as senior as the Comair pilots start over at a regional (possibly commuting) on reserve for $20,000 a year.

Yeah, you will. GoJet is full of them right now. That will continue. I hear Air Wisconsin has snapped up a bunch also.

Quoting norcal (Reply 79):
There are better opportunities out there.

USAir is the only one hiring right now that I'm aware of. Fractional has dried up with EVERY fractional operator having furloughs. XOJet may or may not be hiring at the moment, but you're going to need an internal rec. I think Atlas might be hiring in the cargo world, but that's about it. The only opportunities outside of regionals and lower tier carriers at the moment is overseas.

This pilot shortage is going to be smoke and mirrors as it is. If nothing changes in DC, we have another recession to look forward to. That, along with astronomic fuel prices will cause the parking of a whole lot of jets no longer needed (mostly RJ's I would bet). Everyone here knows about the bitchy economics of the 50 seat jet. The 70 seaters aren't far behind. 20 more seats on a few more hundred pounds per hour, along with a second FA. In 5 years you will be discussing the shitty 70 seat economics. On top of that, airlines are more heavily invested in those 70s than they are 50s right now. Yep, economics will take care of the "pilot shortage". Airlines will use the combination of high fuel prices and a crap economy to shrink to profitability negating the need for mass hiring.


User currently offlinemayor From United States of America, joined Mar 2008, 10373 posts, RR: 14
Reply 88, posted (1 year 9 months 1 week 1 day 17 hours ago) and read 2799 times:

Quoting Mir (Reply 84):
The idea being not so much that the flight training one would receive would be better, but that having a degree would involve being exposed to a broader base of knowledge, which one could substitute for a certain amount of in-flight experience.

Yeah, those BA's in art history are definitely going to help in the long run.  



"A committee is a group of the unprepared, appointed by the unwilling, to do the unnecessary"----Fred Allen
User currently offlineRyanairGuru From Australia, joined Oct 2006, 5366 posts, RR: 4
Reply 89, posted (1 year 9 months 1 week 1 day 17 hours ago) and read 2802 times:

Quoting DashTrash (Reply 87):
I hear Air Wisconsin has snapped up a bunch also.

It seems to be a pretty persistent rumor around here that ZW will fold when its current contract with US is up. If so I feel sorry for those guys, they could well be back on the street before too long  
Quoting DashTrash (Reply 87):
USAir is the only one hiring right now that I'm aware of
http://www.airlineapps.com/Intro/United/

sCO is as well.



Worked Hard, Flew Right
User currently offlineItalianFlyer From United States of America, joined Nov 2007, 1099 posts, RR: 2
Reply 90, posted (1 year 9 months 1 week 1 day 17 hours ago) and read 2804 times:

This is an anecdotal observation, but something I thought I would never see when I joined the industry 12 years ago; pilots leaving the profession alltogether. I know more than 20 people, including a family member, who have decided that the QOL, pay, uncertainty and stagnent movement were not worth it and moved on to other careers. These are folks at both regionals and majors.

User currently offlineapodino From United States of America, joined Apr 2005, 4257 posts, RR: 6
Reply 91, posted (1 year 9 months 1 week 1 day 14 hours ago) and read 2792 times:

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 89):
Quoting DashTrash (Reply 87):
I hear Air Wisconsin has snapped up a bunch also.

It seems to be a pretty persistent rumor around here that ZW will fold when its current contract with US is up. If so I feel sorry for those guys, they could well be back on the street before too long

They did on both the Pilot and the MX side. On the 2015, if ZW gets no flying deal before then they are going to become just a ground handler. However, AA is going to need someone to operate the large RJ's, and with the need to fly about 200 of those frames, that could be their answer. The one disadvantage that ZW has to other carriers is no planes on order and they don't operate any thing over 50 seats, while both SkyWest and Trans States have MRJ's on order, and both companies have had working relationships with AMR in the past or present. As for the US deal...it is up in 2015, and there is no way that US is going to extend the deal because they want to downsize the 50 seat fleet, and ZW's contract expiring allows them to do so. US cannot ignore the operational success that ZW has had for them in recent months, but operational success doesn't guarantee anything; it is all about cost, and ZW has higher costs because they have not invested in their product to bring their costs down, and they are trying to play hardball with their unions.



I would argue there is a pilot shortage right now, except that the regional airlines won't admit it. Instead, they are deliberately understaffing, and overworking pilots and it is making QOL miserable. Not to mention the low pay, especially for FO's. And Crew Schedulers have no clue what toll this takes on their body, instead when pilots bring up legitimate concerns, the attitude always is that the pilots are trying to screw the company and think only about themselves. I see it every day. It is not pretty. And if we have these problems now, imagine after 1500 hours goes into effect and a lot of Regionals are hired by mainline carriers who now are hiring. It is not going to be pretty. And this affects the mainline carrier because in order to even attract candidates to the regionals they have to raise wages and improve QOL, but then those costs are passed on the mainline carriers and they can no longer save as much money by outsourcing. This will be a big issue in the future.


User currently offlinefutureualpilot From United States of America, joined May 2000, 2602 posts, RR: 8
Reply 92, posted (1 year 9 months 1 week 1 day 14 hours ago) and read 2794 times:

Quoting apodino (Reply 91):
US cannot ignore the operational success that ZW has had for them in recent months, but operational success doesn't guarantee anything; it is all about cost, and ZW has higher costs because they have not invested in their product to bring their costs down, and they are trying to play hardball with their unions.

Unfortunately I fear you may be right. There is no shortage of great people at ZW, who deserve great futures but may not get it because it all comes down to cost, and a senior company that pays well, has a great contract and flies only 50 seaters does not bode well for longevity.

Quoting apodino (Reply 91):
I would argue there is a pilot shortage right now, except that the regional airlines won't admit it. Instead, they are deliberately understaffing, and overworking pilots and it is making QOL miserable.

   Fewer and fewer days at home and more and more flights to operate each day at work, makes for an awful tired and discontent employee group both above and below the wing. Some companies are decidedly better than others, but even at a "good" regional it can still be pretty rough.

Quoting apodino (Reply 91):
And Crew Schedulers have no clue what toll this takes on their body, instead when pilots bring up legitimate concerns, the attitude always is that the pilots are trying to screw the company and think only about themselves.

   I've seen this time and again and cannot stress the first part of the sentence enough. The toll some of the schedules, particularly the schedules junior pilots get is just brutal. More and more people are leaving just to save the wear and tear on their bodies and save their home life from the sometimes asinine schedules.



Life is better when you surf.
User currently offlineMir From United States of America, joined Jan 2004, 21554 posts, RR: 55
Reply 93, posted (1 year 9 months 1 week 1 day 12 hours ago) and read 2787 times:

Quoting mayor (Reply 88):
Yeah, those BA's in art history are definitely going to help in the long run.

Obviously, the degree would be in aviation, not just anything.

-Mir



7 billion, one nation, imagination...it's a beautiful day
User currently offlineXFSUgimpLB41X From United States of America, joined Aug 2000, 4194 posts, RR: 37
Reply 94, posted (1 year 9 months 1 week 1 day 11 hours ago) and read 2800 times:

Quoting Mir (Reply 93):
Obviously, the degree would be in aviation, not just anything.

-Mir

A degree in aviation is more worthless than a degree in art history.

I would never ever ever advise anyone to get a degree in aviation.

The kids coming out of overpriced schools with aviation degrees in 100k in debt are no better pilots (and in many cases worse) than those that did like I like did and worked their way up through the FBO and instructed and flew corporate. They have an isolated and supervised environment instead of a diversity of experience as pilot in command.

The exemption of accredited universities in the ATP rule is nothing but a farce bought by the aviation universities.



Chicks dig winglets.
User currently offlineMaverick623 From United States of America, joined Nov 2006, 5592 posts, RR: 6
Reply 95, posted (1 year 9 months 1 week 1 day 11 hours ago) and read 2800 times:

Quoting XFSUgimpLB41X (Reply 94):
A degree in aviation is more worthless than a degree in art history.

Yep. As every single commercial pilot I've ever talked to said: get a degree in something you want to do when you get laid off from flying.



"PHX is Phoenix, PDX is the other city" -777Way
User currently offlineplanemaker From Tuvalu, joined Aug 2003, 6144 posts, RR: 35
Reply 96, posted (1 year 9 months 1 week 1 day 10 hours ago) and read 2795 times:

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 35):
How many of those will pay more?

Doesn't it simply come down to supply and demand...  
Quoting lightsaber (Reply 35):
Why? If so, it will be temporary and then the flood of candidates will be hungry. We've heard about this shortage for so long it has become the boogey man. And for many good reasons, it won

Continual advancement in this area will eventually deal with any future shortages...   



Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
User currently offlinemayor From United States of America, joined Mar 2008, 10373 posts, RR: 14
Reply 97, posted (1 year 9 months 1 week 1 day 8 hours ago) and read 2788 times:

Quoting Mir (Reply 93):
Obviously, the degree would be in aviation, not just anything.

I guess I was referring, more to an airline like DL's policy that requires a 4 year degree, no matter what it's in.

Quoting XFSUgimpLB41X (Reply 94):
The kids coming out of overpriced schools with aviation degrees in 100k in debt are no better pilots (and in many cases worse) than those that did like I like did and worked their way up through the FBO and instructed and flew corporate. They have an isolated and supervised environment instead of a diversity of experience as pilot in command.

Kinda like the people that were in my orientation class at DL in '71, that had gone to airline school, that didn't know any more about the airline at the end of that class than I did. No matter what they had learned, they were going to have to learn it the Delta "way" or whatever airline they were going to.



"A committee is a group of the unprepared, appointed by the unwilling, to do the unnecessary"----Fred Allen
User currently offlineaviateur From United States of America, joined Apr 2004, 1352 posts, RR: 11
Reply 98, posted (1 year 9 months 1 week 1 day 7 hours ago) and read 2782 times:

Here's what I had to say about the matter in my latest blog post......



As the pundits have it, our airlines are running out of pilots. But is this true?



OVER THE PAST WEEK, word of a looming pilot shortage made headlines at the Wall Street Journal. National Public Radio and the major network news channels also carried the story. It’s amazing how the media can pick up and run with something, regardless of how unclear or inaccurate the premise is.

What does “pilot shortage” really mean?

The idea that airlines will soon face an “acute shortage of pilots,” as the Journal piece puts it, is both true and untrue. It depends very much on which sector of the airline industry we’re talking about. We need to draw a sharp divide between the major carriers and their regional affiliates. It’s the latter that may have a problem on its hands.

The major carriers will always have a surplus of highly qualified candidates to choose from. They are able to cull from from the top ranks of the regional carriers, as well as from the military. The impending wave of retirements won’t come close to depleting a supply of senior, highly experienced regional airline pilots who would kill for a slot with a major. That is, if and when they are hiring. Attrition is slow, and at the moment there are more than 3,000 pilots on indefinite furlough from the likes of American, United, and US Airways, some of whom have been laid off for ten years or more. A friend of mine who lost his job at TWA and American recently took a position in Dubai because decent US flying jobs are so scarce. He’s one of many.

At the regionals it’s a slightly different story. By regionals we’re referring to the numerous subcontractors who operate smaller jets and turboprops on behalf of the network carriers: those myriad “Connection” and “Express” carriers. This sector of the industry has grown tremendously over the past two decades, and now accounts for an astonishing one-half (53 percent to be exact) of all domestic departures in the United States.

Pay and working conditions are often terrible at these companies, with salaries starting at around $20,000 annually — sometimes less. And with little to no hiring by the majors, pilots are figuring out that a job with a regional often means a career with a regional. An aspiring aviator has to ask, is it worth sinking $75,000 or more into one’s primary flight training, plus the time it will take to build the requisite number of flight hours, plus the cost of a college education, only to spend years toiling at poverty-level wages, with at best a marginal shot at moving on to a major?

Meanwhile, the FAA is about to enforce tougher hiring standards for entry-level pilots. All of that rapid growth created thousands of new regional pilot jobs. As the number of applicants dwindled, airlines sharply lowered their experience and flight time minimums for new-hires. Suddenly, pilots were being taken on with as little as 350 hours of total time, assigned to the first officer’s seat of sophisticated regional jets. Twenty or thirty years ago this would have been unthinkable. Then came a rash of accidents, including the Colgan Air (Continental Connection) disaster outside Buffalo in 2009. Regulators began taking a closer look at hiring practices, eventually enacting legislation that is about to mandate higher flight time totals and additional certification requirements for new-hires.

(The new rules may sound highly restrictive to young pilots, but really all they’re doing is returning things to historical norms. My first job with a regional — “commuters” we called them in those days — was in 1990. Competitive applicants at the time had between 1,500 and 2,000 hours, and most of us had an FAA Airline Transport Pilot certificate as well. And that was to fly an unpressurized 15-seater.)

There are fewer pilots getting into the business — understandably so. And those that are getting in will have to accrue substantially more flight time before sending resumes to the airlines. Thus, the hiring pool is drying up.

How much it dries up remains to be seen. It’s somewhat telling that virtually no regional carriers have raised their salaries or benefit packages to levels that would appear aimed at retaining or attracting pilots. The media seems to be expecting a shortage, but perhaps not the airlines themselves.

And the regionals are no longer growing like they once were. On the contrary, many are downsizing and laying off. Comair, a Delta Connection carrier and one of the oldest and largest regionals, recently shut its doors, throwing 500 or so pilots onto the street, many of whom had been with the company for twenty years or more. The much maligned Colgan Air also ceased operations. Others are overstaffed, and at least one large regional is offering early-retirement incentives and soliciting voluntary leaves of absence.

If you ask me, there will be plenty of experienced crewmembers out there in the foreseeable future, hungry for work. Even with the tougher new hiring rules, airlines big and small can continue to expect a hundred or more applications for every available job.


- PS



Patrick Smith is an airline pilot, air travel columnist and author
User currently offlineMir From United States of America, joined Jan 2004, 21554 posts, RR: 55
Reply 99, posted (1 year 9 months 1 week 1 day 7 hours ago) and read 2778 times:

Quoting XFSUgimpLB41X (Reply 94):
A degree in aviation is more worthless than a degree in art history.

For flying? No. It does have value. But does that value match the cost involved in getting it? Probably not, which is why I'd agree with this:

Quoting XFSUgimpLB41X (Reply 94):
would never ever ever advise anyone to get a degree in aviation.

With one caveat: if someone wants to get an aviation degree, more power to them, but they should be double majoring in something else as well.

-Mir



7 billion, one nation, imagination...it's a beautiful day
User currently offlineGoldenshield From United States of America, joined Jan 2001, 6003 posts, RR: 14
Reply 100, posted (1 year 9 months 1 week 1 day 7 hours ago) and read 2776 times:

Quoting aviateur (Reply 98):
Comair, a Delta Connection carrier and one of the oldest and largest regionals,

One of the oldest? Not really. Sure, it was around before the recent spat of union-busters and scope-evaders came about, but they are far from being one of the oldest. Of the current large regionals, Air Whiskey has at least 30 years on it, and so did Mesaba,

One of the largest? Not really, either. At its peak (though I'm not sure when exactly that was, but more than likely in the mid-2000's) they had roughly 1,100 flights, which other regionals at the time, such as Expressjet and SkyWest had long surpassed even then.

As for "terrible" pay and working conditions, though, that's highly subjective. Is it bad at a couple operators? Sure. Is it bad at EVERY operator? No! Heck, I know quite a few supplememtal operators that pay worse, fly larger planes, and hire people with fresh commercial tickets.

Otherwise, great article!

[Edited 2012-11-15 19:28:47]


Two all beef patties, special sauce, lettuce, cheese, pickles, onions on a sesame seed bun.
User currently offlinelightsaber From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 12981 posts, RR: 100
Reply 101, posted (1 year 9 months 1 week 1 day 5 hours ago) and read 2770 times:
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Quoting Flighty (Reply 83):
Worker shortages do not happen without the intervention of bizarre rules such as seniority or the 1500 rule or what have you... barriers between consenting job applicants and hiring managers. Such barriers make some people happy, and others unhappy.

Agreed.

Quoting Mir (Reply 84):
The idea being not so much that the flight training one would receive would be better, but that having a degree would involve being exposed to a broader base of knowledge, which one could substitute for a certain amount of in-flight experience.

I agree with that fully. Experience is required, but experience with knowledge of the theory is worth quite a bit more.

Quoting norcal (Reply 85):
That is still a lot of flight time and it still doesn't remove the expense factor.

Agreed. But the added expense versus the prior degree won't be as bad as trying to accumulate 1500 hours sans pay.

Quoting norcal (Reply 85):
I still don't agree that $100,000+ of debt justifies a $20,000 a year job. With higher training costs that equation gets more unfavorably skewed.

I do have a problem with any skilled position being paid $20k/year. So it will be:

Quoting planemaker (Reply 96):
Doesn't it simply come down to supply and demand...

   Which hasn't been the case with pilots forever...

Quoting planemaker (Reply 96):
Continual advancement in this area will eventually deal with any future shortages...

I believe we have been in agreement on prior threads.   But let's not break the mood.

Quoting aviateur (Reply 98):
This sector of the industry has grown tremendously over the past two decades, and now accounts for an astonishing one-half (53 percent to be exact) of all domestic departures in the United States.

So the question is, how many pilots will be feed up with 70 and 76 seaters? I personally like the economics as theoretically a pilot should be paid 15% to 30% more for flying the larger plane that requires the same skills. Note: I'm just talking about the added revenue. No one will get rich flying 70 seaters, but at least it should be a living wage.

Quoting Mir (Reply 99):
With one caveat: if someone wants to get an aviation degree, more power to them, but they should be double majoring in something else as well.

Art History?   

Lightsaber



Societies that achieve a critical mass of ideas achieve self sustaining growth; others stagnate.
User currently offlinemayor From United States of America, joined Mar 2008, 10373 posts, RR: 14
Reply 102, posted (1 year 9 months 1 week 1 day 4 hours ago) and read 2791 times:

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 101):
Art History?

I used "Art History" as an example because the media, every year, interviews college graduates about their major and job prospects and EVERY year, the graduates are mystified when no one is knocking down their doors to hire them, depending on what their major was.  



"A committee is a group of the unprepared, appointed by the unwilling, to do the unnecessary"----Fred Allen
User currently offlinePassedV1 From United States of America, joined Oct 2012, 220 posts, RR: 0
Reply 103, posted (1 year 9 months 1 week 1 day 3 hours ago) and read 2790 times:

First I'll start out with what it is not. It is NOT the wages at the regionals. The wages at the regionals is not the main factor, it is the wages at the majors that is the biggest problem right now.

The wages at the regionals have always been low, in fact, the fact that they pay anything at all is an improvement over the conditions in the late 80's early 90's that those of us that were working toward our major airline job endured. Pay-For-Training was the norm, that's right, want to fly for Com Air - we'll take $15,000 cash please. The days when flying for free was a luxury. Airlines that ONLY made you sign a 15,000 promisary note were seen as a godsend.

Although the amounts seem pale compared to what guys are paying now, I paid $40K which back then was a pretty good chunk of change.

I built a lot of my time flying freight. The company I worked for had a newspaper contract that required the airplane to be flown out with newspapers, and flown back empty. In exchange for helping the pilot load and unload the airplane, I got to fly the empty leg back (since it was a part-91 op). It was in a Cessna 402 which was premium time. If I was lucky, the pilot who was getting paid (althugh not much) would buy me a cup of coffee at the end of the night. By the time I left, demand for multi-time got to the point where guys that were merely willing to load/unload planes were not getting to fly, you had to come in early and either fix (if you had an A&P) or wash the airplanes, before you could load/unload, and then fly for free. All this was being done while going to college in the morning, and flight instructing in the afternoon.

I then went on to American Eagle after 1,300 hours of total time. And that was considered low. In fact, the director of training called me and 3 of my classmates into a special meeting, where we were basically told that we were being "watched" because of their concern over our "low" time. They had NEVER hired civilians with less than 1,500 hours before.

All of us coming through the civilian ranks were willing to endure the hardship because at the time top Captains at United, AA, and Delta were making upwards of $300K a year. If the salaries had kept up with inflation, top Captains should now be making $500k plus a year. On par with Surgeons as it was then. You were destined for a GOOD life. You put up with a lot of BS because there was a nice fat juicy carrot at the end of the stick.

Now, Captains make good money, and First Officers make descent money at major airlines when compared to other profesions, but it's nothing really all that special. Throw in all the negatives of the business (time away from home, living your 20's in poverty, 25% chance you will medical-out and start over, endure lengthy furlough, virtual gurantee that your first marriage will not work), it's not such a great deal.

I honestly cannot see how any young person can pick "pilot" out of all possible career choices available to young, smart people. I know that if I had to start from zero in today's environment I would have picked something else.

[Edited 2012-11-15 22:04:12]

User currently offlineplanemaker From Tuvalu, joined Aug 2003, 6144 posts, RR: 35
Reply 104, posted (1 year 9 months 1 week 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 2790 times:

Quoting Goldenshield (Reply 100):
One of the oldest?

At least Comair will always be remembered for being the N. American launch customer for the CRJ.

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 101):
But let's not break the mood.

I agree!! However, you may be interested to check out this just published book.



Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
User currently offlineairportugal310 From Palau, joined Apr 2004, 3608 posts, RR: 2
Reply 105, posted (1 year 9 months 1 week 1 day 1 hour ago) and read 2781 times:

Quoting XFSUgimpLB41X (Reply 94):
I would never ever ever advise anyone to get a degree in aviation.

Neither would I. I was lucky...almost most others are NOT.

Quoting Maverick623 (Reply 95):

Right on.

Quoting mayor (Reply 97):
Kinda like the people that were in my orientation class at DL in '71, that had gone to airline school, that didn't know any more about the airline at the end of that class than I did. No matter what they had learned, they were going to have to learn it the Delta "way" or whatever airline they were going to.

Exactly.

Quoting mayor (Reply 102):



That should shock no one, and yet...it still does...???? Odd, eh?



I sell airplanes and airplane accessories
User currently offlineplanemaker From Tuvalu, joined Aug 2003, 6144 posts, RR: 35
Reply 106, posted (1 year 9 months 1 week 1 day 1 hour ago) and read 2779 times:

This was a reader's interesting response from AIN re a summer news article on the "pilot shortage"...

Quote:
Steve
on July 25, 2012 - 10:16am
Pilot shortage

I fly for a first class flight department that just recently had a opening. We received over 5800 resumes. There is not a shortage of highly qualified pilots seeking quality jobs. I personally know pilots that choose to collect unemployment rather than accept bottom feeder flying job. Unemployment paid better.



Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
User currently offlineDashTrash From United States of America, joined exactly 8 years ago today! , 1522 posts, RR: 2
Reply 107, posted (1 year 9 months 1 week 17 hours ago) and read 2774 times:

Quoting PassedV1 (Reply 103):
It is NOT the wages at the regionals. The wages at the regionals is not the main factor, it is the wages at the majors that is the biggest problem right now.

I disagree to some extent. There is little movement in the industry at the moment, so you're stuck making shit for a several years at a regional when you start out in the profession. I absolutely disagree the biggest problem in the industry as being payrates at the majors. The BIGGEST problem in the industry is scope, specifically lack thereof. We have skies full of CRJ-900s and EMB-175s that 10 years ago were DC-9s, F-28s / F-100s, and 737s. They're all in the desert now. Transcons previously flown by widebodies and even 757s are now being flown by 737s. That part is catch 22 however, because it is using those aircraft with better economics is what allows our career progression, albeit at a lower hourly rate than flying heavier stuff.

Scope is absolutely the number one problem. Take a look at Midwest. Weak scope and the airline became a brand name only before disappearing altogether. Different issue, but we as a profession flat blew it when we allowed the first codeshare with Henson in the 60s. It got further blown out with the first CRJ hit Comair's property. Had we been more forward thinking we could have, and SHOULD have kept all flying in house.


User currently offlineMir From United States of America, joined Jan 2004, 21554 posts, RR: 55
Reply 108, posted (1 year 9 months 1 week 16 hours ago) and read 2774 times:

Quoting DashTrash (Reply 107):
The BIGGEST problem in the industry is scope, specifically lack thereof.

True, but that cat is out of the bag, and I'm not convinced that there's any way to put it back in the bag.

-Mir



7 billion, one nation, imagination...it's a beautiful day
User currently offlineplanemaker From Tuvalu, joined Aug 2003, 6144 posts, RR: 35
Reply 109, posted (1 year 9 months 1 week 14 hours ago) and read 2771 times:

Quoting DashTrash (Reply 107):
The BIGGEST problem in the industry is scope, specifically lack thereof. We have skies full of CRJ-900s and EMB-175s that 10 years ago were DC-9s, F-28s / F-100s, and 737s. They're all in the desert now. Transcons previously flown by widebodies and even 757s are now being flown by 737s. That part is catch 22 however, because it is using those aircraft with better economics is what allows our career progression, albeit at a lower hourly rate than flying heavier stuff.

"Lack of Scope"... and whatever you would suggest to correct the 'BIGGEST problem" would have knock on implications regarding levels of service. For example, to enable the flying of Transcons with widebodies instead of 737s an airline would obviously have to reduce the frequency of the 737s... and an airline reducing the frequency of flights will drive many pax to their competitors. Likewise, reducing frequencies so as to be able to run larger hub feed aircraft will drive pax to competitors. With the competitive landscape an airline can't have frequency and widebody aircraft. There are many such "cause and effects" that need to be taken into account.



Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
User currently offlinelightsaber From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 12981 posts, RR: 100
Reply 110, posted (1 year 9 months 1 week 13 hours ago) and read 2771 times:
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Quoting PassedV1 (Reply 103):
The wages at the regionals is not the main factor, it is the wages at the majors that is the biggest problem right now.

I disagree. The majors are receiving far too many resumes per position and they won't feel a shortage even when they need to hire thousands. If time at the regionals was short, no one would care. But now as noted:

Quoting DashTrash (Reply 107):
There is little movement in the industry at the moment, so you're stuck making shit for a several years at a regional when you start out in the profession.

The change will be when time at the regionals is shorter... I think we'll see enough bright eyed pilots pursing the career.

Quoting DashTrash (Reply 107):
Transcons previously flown by widebodies and even 757s are now being flown by 737s.

Why is that a problem? It has allowed the LCCs to transform the public's flying habit. The era of controlled competition (regulation) is not coming back.

Quoting Mir (Reply 108):
Quoting DashTrash (Reply 107):
The BIGGEST problem in the industry is scope, specifically lack thereof.

True, but that cat is out of the bag, and I'm not convinced that there's any way to put it back in the bag.

In many ways it will accelerate. In particular if the MRJ hits promised costs.

Lightsaber



Societies that achieve a critical mass of ideas achieve self sustaining growth; others stagnate.
User currently offlineStarAC17 From Canada, joined Aug 2003, 3359 posts, RR: 9
Reply 111, posted (1 year 9 months 1 week 12 hours ago) and read 2761 times:

Quoting bahadir (Reply 43):
he was insisting that the Colgan FO was able to afford a hotel room for $35/night at EWR

I'm not too familiar with how things work at regional carriers but from my work experiences in the past if I was required to travel across Canada for work I am not picking up the tab and my company is and this is true of many of you as well. Also regional carriers aren't the only businesses strapped for cash in today's economy so if you are paying somebody 20K and asking them to pay their a hotel room in the greater NY area its insult to injury. People then find this out and less people will want to fly.

Quoting Tangowhisky (Reply 49):
If there is an up and coming pilot shortage, why does the pay suck for new pilots?

Because we all demand the lowest fare, you could make the same argument that Wal-Mart always needs staff but they aren't paying a cent above minimum wage.

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 35):
That sums it up nicely. For HIGH PAYING flying jobs, there is a surplus of pilots.

For now but many will go to Asia and the ME if pilots are continually scapegoated for the reason legacies can't make money.

Quoting apodino (Reply 91):
I would argue there is a pilot shortage right now, except that the regional airlines won't admit it. Instead, they are deliberately understaffing, and overworking pilots and it is making QOL miserable. Not to mention the low pay, especially for FO's. And Crew Schedulers have no clue what toll this takes on their body, instead when pilots bring up legitimate concerns, the attitude always is that the pilots are trying to screw the company and think only about themselves.

As people who fly we should be outraged because this kind of overworking puts our lives on the line when we have to fly these regional carriers on which the legacies have outsourced the flying to. Also we ask more prudent rest requirements out of bus and truck drivers and they have much less lives in their hands than pilots. Also I think crew schedulers know the toll it takes but they just don't care and they are scapegoating the pilots for the failures of management.

The cold hard truth of the matter is there are some players in every industry out there that just don't give a damn about the well-being of their employees. Those people I try not to give business to and as long as I can control it I hope to never work for one.



Engineers Rule The World!!!!!
User currently offlinemanny From United States of America, joined Sep 2006, 473 posts, RR: 0
Reply 112, posted (1 year 9 months 1 week 12 hours ago) and read 2764 times:

Its so ironic to see an article about Government help when most columnists and editorials are focused on reducing the very same Government!

At the end of the day if Lufthansa can afford to have its personal program than so can the US based carriers. It's called a business investment. And thanks to all fees that are now charges most US based airlines are in great shape. Period. So the Government should not get involved financially. We have to look at if the training can be revolutionized to a point where it takes 2 years for these pilots to get trained instead of 5 years thus reducing the expense.


User currently offlineMir From United States of America, joined Jan 2004, 21554 posts, RR: 55
Reply 113, posted (1 year 9 months 1 week 11 hours ago) and read 2768 times:

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 110):
In many ways it will accelerate. In particular if the MRJ hits promised costs.

It doesn't have to accelerate if the pilots stand firm on scope. If an airline wants MRJs, they can fly them with mainline crews.

The problem is that if one pilot group doesn't play long, and does allow MRJs to be outsourced, then everyone will eventually have to go along.

-Mir



7 billion, one nation, imagination...it's a beautiful day
User currently offlineRyanairGuru From Australia, joined Oct 2006, 5366 posts, RR: 4
Reply 114, posted (1 year 9 months 1 week 11 hours ago) and read 2773 times:

Quoting StarAC17 (Reply 111):
I am not picking up the tab and my company is

When a pilot is RON at an outstation then they are getting a hotel room etc. The issue in question, I think, is when they are staying in base, either because they flew in at 10pm and are crewing an outbound at 6am, or because they are stuck on reserve. There is probably no way a Colgan FO could afford to live in NYC unless it was with their parents or their partner was an investment banker. Therefore they are not at home during these downtimes, and need to find some alternative accommodation.

Quoting manny (Reply 112):
if Lufthansa can afford to have its personal program than so can the US based carriers.

This is something I hadn't really considered before, not planning on being a pilot myself, but it would appear that in Australia QF, JQ, VA and Rex all have cadetship programs like the LH program mentioned.

The VA one is particularly interesting: once graduated you are put into the left seat of an AT7 operated by regional-outsourcee Skywest, and after a period of 3 years you are eligible for a shift to mainline if a position comes available. While the regionals can't afford such a program in the US, the legacies probably could if they are desperate to keep those low cost RJs in their network. Therefore they could maybe reach a similar agreement to the VA-XR agreement where the major picks up the training tab, and then offers preferential hiring to that person if a position opens.



Worked Hard, Flew Right
User currently offlineplanemaker From Tuvalu, joined Aug 2003, 6144 posts, RR: 35
Reply 115, posted (1 year 9 months 1 week 10 hours ago) and read 2759 times:

Quoting Mir (Reply 113):
The problem is that if one pilot group doesn't play long, and does allow MRJs to be outsourced, then everyone will eventually have to go along.

And that will happen.



Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
User currently offlineGoldenshield From United States of America, joined Jan 2001, 6003 posts, RR: 14
Reply 116, posted (1 year 9 months 1 week 10 hours ago) and read 2770 times:

Quoting planemaker (Reply 115):
Quoting Mir (Reply 113):
The problem is that if one pilot group doesn't play long, and does allow MRJs to be outsourced, then everyone will eventually have to go along.


And that will happen.

It's going to happen anyway, because with a little modification of the cabin layout, the MRJ fits perfectly within the allowances for scope already established.



Two all beef patties, special sauce, lettuce, cheese, pickles, onions on a sesame seed bun.
User currently offlinevio From Canada, joined Feb 2004, 1409 posts, RR: 10
Reply 117, posted (1 year 9 months 1 week 9 hours ago) and read 2781 times:

I love the stories and headlines of "PILOT SHORTAGES"... What they fail to mention is that they have a shortage of EXPERIENCED PILOTS... That's a huge difference. In Canada some companies are having a "harder" time finding captains on the King Air, B1900, Metro, etc because the majors are taking guys with 2500 hrs. You'll never have problems finding guys with 1000 hrs or less... never mind the 200 hrs fresh pilots straight out of flight school.

Just my 2 cents...



Superior decisions reduce the need for superior skills.
User currently offlineDashTrash From United States of America, joined exactly 8 years ago today! , 1522 posts, RR: 2
Reply 118, posted (1 year 9 months 1 week 7 hours ago) and read 2762 times:

Quoting planemaker (Reply 109):
"Lack of Scope"... and whatever you would suggest to correct the 'BIGGEST problem" would have knock on implications regarding levels of service. For example, to enable the flying of Transcons with widebodies instead of 737s an airline would obviously have to reduce the frequency of the 737s... and an airline reducing the frequency of flights will drive many pax to their competitors. Likewise, reducing frequencies so as to be able to run larger hub feed aircraft will drive pax to competitors. With the competitive landscape an airline can't have frequency and widebody aircraft. There are many such "cause and effects" that need to be taken into account.

You can't correct it. The cat is out of the bag. You're correct on the rest of your statement as well. I wasn't making the argument that all transcons should be on widebodies, merely stating the difference between the flying today as opposed to 20 years ago.

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 110):

Why is that a problem? It has allowed the LCCs to transform the public's flying habit. The era of controlled competition (regulation) is not coming back.

From a pilot standpoint, deregulation and LCCs are a part of what drove work rules and wages into the ground to begin with.


User currently offlinefutureualpilot From United States of America, joined May 2000, 2602 posts, RR: 8
Reply 119, posted (1 year 9 months 1 week 6 hours ago) and read 2757 times:

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 110):
I think we'll see enough bright eyed pilots pursing the career.

I'd take a look at the numbers of student pilot, commercial and ATP certificates being issued in recent years. They're not indicative of an increase in interest.

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 110):
In many ways it will accelerate. In particular if the MRJ hits promised costs.

Scope clauses are now including seat and weight limits, the MRJ may be allowed but it would depend on the scope language and what size MRJ we're talking. DL and UA (with their TA) have both addressed this with their scope clauses.

Quoting StarAC17 (Reply 111):
I'm not too familiar with how things work at regional carriers but from my work experiences in the past if I was required to travel across Canada for work I am not picking up the tab and my company is and this is true of many of you as well.

If we're on a trip, the company picks up the tab, but for commuters since you're not "on duty" the company generally doesn't pay for a hotel.



Life is better when you surf.
User currently offlineStarAC17 From Canada, joined Aug 2003, 3359 posts, RR: 9
Reply 120, posted (1 year 9 months 1 week 6 hours ago) and read 2755 times:

Quoting futureualpilot (Reply 119):
If we're on a trip, the company picks up the tab, but for commuters since you're not "on duty" the company generally doesn't pay for a hotel.

That makes sense as I don't get paid to drive to work and would never ask to be.

Regarding Colgan Air Flight 3407 in Buffalo and from watching the Mayday on it I couldn't understand why the F/O was flying in from Washington state to EWR. My biggest question is wouldn't they be based out of the same hub not just for the benefit of the pilot but for the sake of the airline efficiently managing their personnel. So even though the F/O couldn't afford residence near EWR she could have found something closer than Seattle, say in rural areas a few hours away.



Engineers Rule The World!!!!!
User currently offlineGoldenshield From United States of America, joined Jan 2001, 6003 posts, RR: 14
Reply 121, posted (1 year 9 months 1 week 6 hours ago) and read 2762 times:

Quoting StarAC17 (Reply 120):
Regarding Colgan Air Flight 3407 in Buffalo and from watching the Mayday on it I couldn't understand why the F/O was flying in from Washington state to EWR.

She was living with her parents is why.

Even (the untouchable) Sully was commuting from Sacramento, although he was based at CLT. And then he still had the cajones to complain that he couldn't afford to live there...



Two all beef patties, special sauce, lettuce, cheese, pickles, onions on a sesame seed bun.
User currently offlinefutureualpilot From United States of America, joined May 2000, 2602 posts, RR: 8
Reply 122, posted (1 year 9 months 1 week 5 hours ago) and read 2756 times:

Quoting StarAC17 (Reply 120):
That makes sense as I don't get paid to drive to work and would never ask to be.

Right, but your work schedule likely dictates that you can wake up and drive to work as you choose to do so. Commuting flight crew do not always have the option to choose when they leave since we have to go by the scheduled flights. Complicating matters are frequent base closures. I've moved twice to live in my base only to see both close within 6mos of my getting there but fortunately I was single and without a family to consider. Low pay and a high cost of moving or living in a busy metropolitan area (such as EWR) and trying to make it all work with either your one job as an FO or a couple of jobs adds yet more complexity to the situation. Yes, we choose the profession, but that is no excuse for not paying a livable wage under the guise that "crew can commute if they choose to" when commuting isn't the great problem solver people like to think it is. Particularly those who do not commute in the same manner that flight crews do.

Quoting StarAC17 (Reply 120):
Regarding Colgan Air Flight 3407 in Buffalo and from watching the Mayday on it I couldn't understand why the F/O was flying in from Washington state to EWR. My biggest question is wouldn't they be based out of the same hub not just for the benefit of the pilot but for the sake of the airline efficiently managing their personnel. So even though the F/O couldn't afford residence near EWR she could have found something closer than Seattle, say in rural areas a few hours away.

She did it for cost reasons, an FO on Colgan's pay would have a terrible time making somewhere in the NYC metro area (to include EWR) work while being able to still cover bills and living expenses. I lived with several people in a modest apartment my first year and we shared expenses in the DC metro area and it was still tough to make it work. And I had the luxury of driving to work after I switched bases to stop commuting. I believe she also had a second job to make ends meet. Never mind the cost of moving and relocating especially across the country. While a one time expense, on first year pay, it is a HUGE decision to make to move across the country to a more expensive area when you are living at home for free, or relatively cheap.

[Edited 2012-11-16 20:39:58]

[Edited 2012-11-16 20:40:51]


Life is better when you surf.
User currently offlineStarAC17 From Canada, joined Aug 2003, 3359 posts, RR: 9
Reply 123, posted (1 year 9 months 1 week 4 hours ago) and read 2758 times:

Quoting futureualpilot (Reply 122):
Complicating matters are frequent base closures. I've moved twice to live in my base only to see both close within 6mos of my getting there but fortunately I was single and without a family to consider.

That is fortunate and even the fact you are single doesn't make it much of a hassle. Its still challenging and even after 6 months you build a network of friends that makes it tough. Personally I would rather move to another city for more than a year than to move around every 6 months or so and I'm single. I don't need a job to figure out my travel goals.

Quoting futureualpilot (Reply 122):
Yes, we choose the profession, but that is no excuse for not paying a livable wage under the guise that "crew can commute if they choose to" when commuting isn't the great problem solver people like to think it is. Particularly those who do not commute in the same manner that flight crews do.

It's also bad business, it takes far less money to have a low turnover and people who are satisfied with their jobs develop more loyalty to a company and are far more productive.



Engineers Rule The World!!!!!
User currently offlineRyanairGuru From Australia, joined Oct 2006, 5366 posts, RR: 4
Reply 124, posted (1 year 9 months 1 week 2 hours ago) and read 2761 times:

Quoting vio (Reply 117):
You'll never have problems finding guys with 1000 hrs or less... never mind the 200 hrs fresh pilots straight out of flight school.

Sorry to be blunt, but have you read this thread?

You're absolutely right, you can always find someone with 250 hours. The little detail you seemed to have missed is that the FAA won't allow them to sit in an airliner until they have 1,500. That's the problem.



Worked Hard, Flew Right
User currently offlinelightsaber From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 12981 posts, RR: 100
Reply 125, posted (1 year 9 months 5 days 17 hours ago) and read 2737 times:
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Quoting StarAC17 (Reply 111):
Quoting lightsaber (Reply 35):
That sums it up nicely. For HIGH PAYING flying jobs, there is a surplus of pilots.

For now but many will go to Asia and the ME if pilots are continually scapegoated for the reason legacies can't make money.

That would be great. Supply and demand would be in balance and in the long run everyone would be better off. I'm not for pilots paid less than a living wage (it just seems wrong for a skilled profession).

Quoting Mir (Reply 113):
It doesn't have to accelerate if the pilots stand firm on scope. If an airline wants MRJs, they can fly them with mainline crews.

I think the MRJ should have costs low enough to be effective under those terms. I would *love* to see a legacy work with their unions to bring costs/productivity in line so they could fly the MRJ in house. I would be more likely to fly a product that has that extra level of consistency.

But the pilots didn't hold firm on scope. DL, AA, and (to a lesser degree) UA have caved. For the legacies need feed at a cost structure that prevents WN, B6, Spirit, and others from coming into their cities and gaining market share.

Quoting DashTrash (Reply 118):
Quoting lightsaber (Reply 110):

Why is that a problem? It has allowed the LCCs to transform the public's flying habit. The era of controlled competition (regulation) is not coming back.

From a pilot standpoint, deregulation and LCCs are a part of what drove work rules and wages into the ground to begin with.

I was talking from a customer perspective on how smaller narrow bodies going TCON has been great! Half of my flights that are TCON are to markets too small to support a daily 752 and I prefer the non-stop. Once there are connections, Orbitz (or other search engines) provide far too much competition to hold any RASM advantage.

Quoting futureualpilot (Reply 119):
I'd take a look at the numbers of student pilot, commercial and ATP certificates being issued in recent years. They're not indicative of an increase in interest.

I speculate that is tied to their friends not receiving *any* position. There hasn't been much domestic growth. I believe it is also due to the extended war and budget cuts forcing many a military pilot to stick with the service. Now, I live near zamperini field in Torrance and it is almost impossible to check out of Costco without bumping into a student pilot and that is but one *tiny* airfield. (Van Nuys, IIRC, is the big teaching airfield for Los Angeles.) I'm perfectly fine with their being better wages; I simply see zero market reason for the majors to pay better. Their applicant to position ratio is extreme! They're back at the old days where they have no choice but to throw out a HUGE number of applications unopened in order to sort through a reasonable (economical in terms of labor hours) pool of candidates.

Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 124):
the FAA won't allow them to sit in an airliner until they have 1,500. That's the problem.

Nitpick, the FAA requires the ATP, not hours. The ATP will be the 'problem.' (Which I actually think is a fine regulation.)

Quoting futureualpilot (Reply 122):
Yes, we choose the profession, but that is no excuse for not paying a livable wage under the guise that "crew can commute if they choose to" when commuting isn't the great problem solver people like to think it is.

Commuting is certainly a problem. It will probably push up wages at the bottom. But by how much would be required to ensure an adequate pilot pool? In the end, that is what we are debating. What is the Supply/demand curve for pilots in the United states?

Lightsaber



Societies that achieve a critical mass of ideas achieve self sustaining growth; others stagnate.
User currently offlinelightsaber From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 12981 posts, RR: 100
Reply 126, posted (1 year 9 months 5 days 17 hours ago) and read 2740 times:
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Due to it being related to this thread, Monster now has out the worst paying college degrees:

http://career-advice.monster.com/sal...2/article.aspx?wt.mc_n=CRMUS001649


Best paying (older article):
http://career-advice.monster.com/sal...st-paid-jobs-by-major/article.aspx


Although, something seems wrong with those salaries. If a senior civil engineer is really paid that much less than an senior Aerospace or mechanical engineer, they need to switch fields. Most of the pilots I know with engineering degrees are working as engineers and not pilots due to the extreme pay difference.

Lightsaber



Societies that achieve a critical mass of ideas achieve self sustaining growth; others stagnate.
User currently offlineDeltaRules From United States of America, joined Sep 2001, 3737 posts, RR: 9
Reply 127, posted (1 year 9 months 3 days 11 hours ago) and read 2730 times:

Here's what I want to know about these rumored "accredited" ATP programs which may knock the time requirements down, using these posts as my information (and understanding that the concepts and numbers you posted may not be the final ones in the programs):

Quoting zeke (Reply 67):
This is exactly what will happen, the ATP will be issued through approved schools after attaining something like 500 flight hours in an approved course. There is a large push from the ICAO level to adjust the flight time down, however to compensate that with simulator time, so a person may have 500 hrs flight time, and 750 hours of simulator time. For example under the ICAO MPL guidelines, a person can gain the commercial MPL with only 70 hours of flight time through an approved school.

The schools will be able to run the simulators 24/7 (rain, hail, shine, day, night), and probably be able to turn students out in 18 months from zero to ATP.

This is what happens when politicians get involved with knee jerk reactions.
Quoting lightsaber (Reply 64):
Because so many people want to become a pilot. Since the requirement is just to gain an ATP, I see the flight schools changing their curriculum to be * extremely* ATP focused. Perhaps by adjusting the classes into a 5 year program with more flight time (but not the 1500 hours).
Quoting Mir (Reply 84):
From what I heard, the school would have to have an accredited aviation program, which means pretty much any college could be eligible, but that schools such as ATP or Flight Safety Academy would not. The idea being not so much that the flight training one would receive would be better, but that having a degree would involve being exposed to a broader base of knowledge, which one could substitute for a certain amount of in-flight experience.


What about guys who just crossed 200TT and are working on building time to get their Commercial single? Would it be possible for somebody in those shoes to wait for Chuck Schumer and the geniuses in Washington, likely with the consultation of Saint Sully, to roll out a plan so they could go to a fast-track or five-year program?

Is there any grandfathering of previously earned flight time and/or previously earned aviation degrees, or does one with some time have to tack on the (using the example numbers above) 500 hours of flight and 750 sim to their existing ratings should they choose an "accredited" program? For example, I'm sitting on 201.4TT (had to tally up the logbook last week, hence the exact figure ) and already HAVE a Bachelor's from Riddle (Worldwide, and have nearly finished a Master's). Would that count for anything?



Let's Kick the Tires & Light the Fires!!
User currently offlineXFSUgimpLB41X From United States of America, joined Aug 2000, 4194 posts, RR: 37
Reply 128, posted (1 year 9 months 3 days 10 hours ago) and read 2732 times:

Quoting DeltaRules (Reply 127):
What about guys who just crossed 200TT and are working on building time to get their Commercial single? Would it be possible for somebody in those shoes to wait for Chuck Schumer and the geniuses in Washington, likely with the consultation of Saint Sully, to roll out a plan so they could go to a fast-track or five-year program?

Is there any grandfathering of previously earned flight time and/or previously earned aviation degrees, or does one with some time have to tack on the (using the example numbers above) 500 hours of flight and 750 sim to their existing ratings should they choose an "accredited" program? For example, I'm sitting on 201.4TT (had to tally up the logbook last week, hence the exact figure&nbsp Wink and already HAVE a Bachelor's from Riddle (Worldwide, and have nearly finished a Master's). Would that count for anything?

Do what the rest of us did for many years- finish your commercial, get your CFI, networkm and build your time above 1500 hours (and as such pilot in command experience!).

It's a fun and rewarding path... don't count on short cuts!

Question- why are you getting your masters?



Chicks dig winglets.
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