zeke From Hong Kong, joined Dec 2006, 7725 posts, RR: 73 Reply 1, posted (6 months 6 days 23 hours ago) and read 549 times:
That makes it two "soft" announcements in two weeks, first for the 787-10 offer that was not on offer, and this 737MAX firm concept which is not frozen.
What is the strategy here ?
We have seen Boeing do this before in my view to run up the share price before releasing less favourable news.
We are addicted to our thoughts. We cannot change anything if we cannot change our thinking – Santosh Kalwar
tarheelwings From United States of America, joined Jul 2009, 201 posts, RR: 0 Reply 3, posted (6 months 6 days 23 hours ago) and read 556 times:
Quoting zeke (Reply 1): first for the 787-10 offer that was not on offer
Do you doubt that the 787-10 will be offered? If so, how about stating it.
Quoting oykie (Thread starter): and this 737MAX firm concept which is not frozen.
Per the article "recently completing a major milestone in development known as Firm Concept"....what is wrong with announcing progress in the development of the 737MAX?
Stitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 26697 posts, RR: 83 Reply 4, posted (6 months 6 days 23 hours ago) and read 553 times:
To me, the "strategy" looks to me like providing guidance on both programs.
I see the 787-10X announcement as removing the "X(perimental)" part. Boeing's been muttering about doing a 787-10 for years, but now they're committed to making it happen.
And with the 737MAX at "firm concept", they now know what features the plane is going to have and now they will work on integrating them into design.
As for "less than favorable news", Boeing will be announcing record orders and record deliveries at the end of the year. Indeed that should hammer the stock price.
Stitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 26697 posts, RR: 83 Reply 7, posted (6 months 6 days 21 hours ago) and read 542 times:
Quoting zeke (Reply 5): I assume you are talking about selective products, overall are they not behind their goal?
In general, Boeing's quarter-to-quarter results have been better than 2011's. The overall change between 2011 and 2012 has been positive outside of Operating Margin, which has fallen about 0.7 points (to 7.9% from 8.6%). They have also raised their full year guidance, so if anything, they appear to generally be ahead of goal.
tdscanuck From Canada, joined Jan 2006, 12709 posts, RR: 80 Reply 8, posted (6 months 6 days 21 hours ago) and read 538 times:
Quoting zeke (Reply 5): I assume you are talking about selective products, overall are they not behind their goal ?
Which goal? As far as I know, they're on track to meet/beat almost all the financial targets (which is all the market really cares about) and the programs all seem to be doing about what they're supposed to be doing at this point based on past guidance.
wingman From Trinidad and Tobago, joined May 1999, 1836 posts, RR: 5 Reply 9, posted (6 months 6 days 20 hours ago) and read 536 times:
I think what he means is that Boeing will declare Chapter 11 in January and fully capitulate to Airbus. The next day our nuclear arsenal will self detonate and the United States will disappear into the dusty annals of failed nation states.
BlueSky1976 From Poland, joined Jul 2004, 1703 posts, RR: 4 Reply 10, posted (6 months 6 days 20 hours ago) and read 535 times:
From the press release:
Quote: The team also has defined the high-speed aerodynamic lines for the 737 MAX. Through analysis and testing conducted in high- and low-speed wind tunnels, the 737 MAX design team has further refined the geometric shape of the airplane, eliminating the need for the small bump on the nose-gear door that appeared in earlier design iterations.
Good new. No. GREAT news!
This blister thingy was an eyesore. I'm glad Boeing engineers were able to get rid of it for good.
phxa340 From United States of America, joined Mar 2012, 624 posts, RR: 1 Reply 11, posted (6 months 6 days 20 hours ago) and read 533 times:
Quoting zeke (Reply 1): We have seen Boeing do this before in my view to run up the share price before releasing less favourable news.
1. That they are almost at their goal of selling 1,000 MAX Aircraft in 1 year
2. That they are going to deliver their goal of 787s and raised production
3. That they have successfully raised 777 production
Stitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 26697 posts, RR: 83 Reply 12, posted (6 months 6 days 20 hours ago) and read 531 times:
Anyway, before we drag this thread so off-topic the Moderators close it...
Referring to the report from Leeham.net that queb linked to, UBS Securities seems to be a bit worried that "design creep" might have grown to the point that they fear Boeing might have to re-certify the MAX, as opposed to just amending the existing 737 Type Certificate.
Also, it appears Boeing is not yet concerned about no customers having publicly committing to the 737-7. I would hazard a guess that AA might add the type as they have shown there is a need for a 737-7 / A319-100neo in their fleet for "secondary domestic markets, select markets in Latin America and high-alrtudue or short-runway airports". Beverly Wyse, VP and GM of the 737 Program, identified these as missions she felt the 737-7 would appeal to operators.
odwyerpw From Mexico, joined Dec 2004, 641 posts, RR: 3 Reply 13, posted (6 months 6 days 20 hours ago) and read 529 times:
Yesterday, Airbus reaches 1500 sales for the NEO. Great news.
Today, Boeing releases updates to the MAX program. Improvements to the cockpit (Thought the cockpit would go untouched. This is welcome news.) and the proposed bump on the nose gear door is removed (Mo more aerodynamic penalty to accomodate lengthened nose gear. This is welcome news too.).
Personally, i'm relieved to see a little mission creep with the plane. I imagine they are having a few discussions with customers and regulators about ways to modify the cockpit and still keep type certification. If for no other reason than to reduce build costs, by changing a few of the assemblies. I hope they make a few changes to the overhead panel as well.
Revelation From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 10452 posts, RR: 20 Reply 15, posted (6 months 6 days 20 hours ago) and read 528 times:
Quoting zeke (Reply 1): That makes it two "soft" announcements in two weeks, first for the 787-10 offer that was not on offer, and this 737MAX firm concept which is not frozen.
What is the strategy here ?
Not sure what issue you are raising. It's normal in engineering circles to have a concept commit before a design freeze, and I don't have any issue at all with Boeing communicating that the concept commit has been reached, especially given there are a large number of customers who've already put money down on it so are sure to want such news to be communicated.
Of course the design freeze isn't even a freeze, many aspects still end up being worked out right till the time it ships and beyond. Typically it just means the engineering community has a design that they feel will meet the requirements, but of course some times it doesn't and so it needs to change.
phxa340 From United States of America, joined Mar 2012, 624 posts, RR: 1 Reply 16, posted (6 months 6 days 20 hours ago) and read 530 times:
Quoting Stitch (Reply 12): UBS Securities seems to be a bit worried that "design creep" might have grown to the point that they fear Boeing might have to re-certify the MAX, as opposed to just amending the existing 737 Type Certificate.
I am confident Boeing would want to avoid this at all cost, it sounds like Boeing wants to push the envelope as much as possible without requiring re-certification.
packsonflight From Iceland, joined Jan 2010, 321 posts, RR: 0 Reply 18, posted (6 months 6 days 19 hours ago) and read 532 times:
Quoting phxa340 (Reply 16): I am confident Boeing would want to avoid this at all cost, it sounds like Boeing wants to push the envelope as much as possible without requiring re-certific
I was under the impression that they already did that with the NG
mffoda From United States of America, joined Apr 2010, 908 posts, RR: 0 Reply 19, posted (6 months 6 days 19 hours ago) and read 531 times:
Quoting packsonflight (Reply 18): Quoting phxa340 (Reply 16):
I am confident Boeing would want to avoid this at all cost, it sounds like Boeing wants to push the envelope as much as possible without requiring re-certific
I was under the impression that they already did that with the NG
They did. So, this should be very minor in comparison.
rheinwaldner From Switzerland, joined Jan 2008, 2063 posts, RR: 6 Reply 20, posted (6 months 6 days 18 hours ago) and read 527 times:
Is a firm concept about the same as preliminary guarantee?
To my uneducated perception dozens of firm concepts have been launched to answer the NEO since its launch....
Roseflyer From United States of America, joined Feb 2004, 8739 posts, RR: 52 Reply 21, posted (6 months 6 days 18 hours ago) and read 528 times:
Unless you are familiar with the design process, firm concept means little to you. However, in reality it is a major milestone.
Firm concept is a huge milestone in a program. It means that basically all the trade studies have been complete. There is a plan for production. High level decisions have been made. Boeing will have already began tenders for information from potential suppliers. They’ll be achieving firm configuration next year which is what triggers engineers to actually release engineering.
Airplanes are typically offered for sale around Firm Concept. Airbus pressured the MAX to being offered early in the design process, which is something typically avoided. At Firm Concept, the projections for operating costs are fairly well known. At this point Boeing can begin promising efficiency targets to airlines.
Because of the importance of Firm Concept and Firm Configuration, I have routinely cast doubt on anyone providing performance comparisons between the MAX and competing models. Until you get to this point in the design process, Boeing truly does not know what the efficiency numbers will turn out like. Projections are fair, but you can’t have legitimate comparisons. Because of the early offering for sale on the MAX, airlines have been relying on preliminary figures when making purchase decisions.
Quoting zeke (Reply 1): That makes it two "soft" announcements in two weeks, first for the 787-10 offer that was not on offer, and this 737MAX firm concept which is not frozen.
What is the strategy here ?
We have seen Boeing do this before in my view to run up the share price before releasing less favourable news.
Firm Concept is different from Firm Configuration which is “frozen”. Firm Configuration won’t happen until midway through next year. Firm Configuration means that suppliers have been selected and they are going to start work on releasing engineering. The MAX is still a long way from that.
The strategy is that Boeing is making progress on the 737MAX design and announcing a huge internal milestone. I don’t know why anyone would relate achieving a major design milestone with the impeding less favorable news.
If you have never designed an airplane part before, let the real designers do the work!
Roseflyer From United States of America, joined Feb 2004, 8739 posts, RR: 52 Reply 22, posted (6 months 6 days 18 hours ago) and read 534 times:
Quoting rheinwaldner (Reply 20): Is a firm concept about the same as preliminary guarantee?
Basically Yes. Any numbers promised earlier had additional conservatism built in to them. Boeing may have seen preliminary estimates saying 15% improvement, yet they only would go on record promising 12% because of not wanting to make promises that couldn't be kept.
Quoting rheinwaldner (Reply 20): To my uneducated perception dozens of firm concepts have been launched to answer the NEO since its launch....
Those haven't been announced by Boeing as firm concepts. Seeing a concept sketch, and Boeing announcing completions of significant trade studies (winglet, nose gear stretch, etc) are not firm concepts. Boeing uses a gated design process. The NSA never got anywhere near firm concept. Nothing that you hear from marketing teams is firm concept. You get that from the engineering teams.
[Edited 2012-11-15 12:46:24]
If you have never designed an airplane part before, let the real designers do the work!
JAAlbert From United States of America, joined Jan 2006, 1190 posts, RR: 1 Reply 23, posted (6 months 6 days 17 hours ago) and read 534 times:
The 737-MAX will have a new electronic bleed air system supplied by Honeywell. Does this mean the bleed air is going the way of the 787? If so, I think that's a major departure for this plane.
CM From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR: Reply 24, posted (6 months 6 days 17 hours ago) and read 534 times:
Quoting rheinwaldner (Reply 20): Is a firm concept about the same as preliminary guarantee?
Guarantees can be offered at any point in the PD process. What changes is the tolerance from nominal performance. Firm Concept reduces that tolerance down to something quite comfortable for most operators, and close to the tolerance you would see on guarantees for an already in-service aircraft.
Quoting JAAlbert (Reply 23): The 737-MAX will have a new electronic bleed air system supplied by Honeywell. Does this mean the bleed air is going the way of the 787?
No, it is digital in its control (as opposed to analog - using bleed pressure for control sensing and muscle pressure to valves). It is still a full bleed systems architecture, the same as the NG.
25 tdscanuck: Keep a.net quiet because we're constantly whining that the OEM's don't tell us enough about how their programs are progressing? Tom.
26 odwyerpw: Firm Concept means that we can also stop debating whether or not Boeing will convert to 777 style windows like they have on their last 2 reworks (767-
27 JAAlbert: Come on now -- put the 777 windows in the MAX for crying out loud! Or be really daring and add the 787 windows! Now that would be a plane! (I know, I
29 nomadd22: Because small, aluminum fuselages don't like having lots of large holes cut in them. The extra structure needed to beef it up would weigh a whole lot
30 American 767: I was going to ask if it will be built using composite materials like on the 787 or it will continue to be built with Aluminium foils. Of course with
31 tdscanuck: Most of the aluminum comes from Alcoa. Tom.
32 ODwyerPW: I agree. I want them too. But I don't engineer, sell or purchase 737s, so I don't get a vote. I do fly allot in them though...almost exclusively! Jus
33 zeke: A company maybe in the black and still behind budget. All I was saying is that it was my understanding they were behind this years delivery targets o
34 ODwyerPW: It means it's good news. No need to put any other spin on it or back peddle. But if I were required to explain it, I would simply offer Tom's words a
35 zeke: I do not recall a large thirst of such information on here, we are not seeing lots of threads on the 737MAX concept. I do not think the target audien
36 bikerthai: Even within Boeing these terms do evolve as process changes. Starting with the 777, airliners have continued to become more involved in new airplane
37 CXB77L: What would be the point in doing that? There is no return of investment here ... all it will do is perhaps appease the passengers with a larger windo
38 tdscanuck: Absolutely true, but it's very hard to be behind budget and simultaneously exceeding analyst expectations and your own earnings guidance from earlier
39 Revelation: I like the description in #21 because IIRC Roseflyer has worked with Boeing and with its suppliers: It's similar yet different in my company, where i
40 MountainFlyer: Pardon my lack of technical knowledge here, but how does having radial tires allow the nose gear to retract further? Are most aircraft tires not radi
41 mffoda: No they're mostly bias ply tires. However, radial is where they are now heading. The 787 is standard with only radial tires and I believe the A380 as
42 Roseflyer: Radial may allow a smaller tire than the conventional Bias Ply
43 barney captain: But wasn't the reason for the 8 inch stretch on the nose gear to get greater ground clearance? Wouldn't a smaller tire somewhat defeat the purpose? M
44 Roseflyer: On Boeing airplanes you see a separate brake pressure gauge because you need to be able to check brake pressure when the airplane is powered down. Yo
45 barney captain: Rose - Thanks! I need my morning coffee to kick in but of course, that's correct. Have you seen the panel layout that was sent out? Very impressive to
46 Tristarsteve: Well The B777 and the A320 family has always had radial tyres from the start. It is only in the past few years that it has been an option on the B737
47 PITingres: Completely wild guess here, but if the radial tire is thinner, it may be that they could jigger things enough to fit it deeper into the well without
48 barney captain: All valid points but at the end of the day, the nose gear was lengthened 8" for increased ground clearance with the lager fans. Installing a smaller t
49 Areopagus: I'll hazard a guess. The nose gear is 8 inches longer, with a smaller tire and a strut that is more than 8 inches longer. When the gear is retracted,
50 CM: Just to clarify. The new radial tire is the same size as the bias-ply. Here is how radial helps with retracting the gear farther into the well: When
51 zeke: Agreed, however my thoughts do have some substance to them, Jon Ostrower at The Wall Street Journal had this in a recent article "Boeing Hits a Miles
52 tdscanuck: Absolutely. But that's true for any major accounting change (ExxonMobil would lose about $8 billion dollars off their bottom line if they switched fr
53 Revelation: Right, the main issue is how to get the tire back into the well, not the ground clearance.
54 JoeCanuck: I think they're both pretty important. If clearance wasn't an issue, getting the tire back into the well wouldn't be either.
55 Roseflyer: It is because the NEO sold at a record pace. We all know Boeing rushed the MAX to customers earlier than they wanted to. The consequences are that th
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