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737MAX Firm Concept  
User currently offlineoykie From Norway, joined Jan 2006, 2751 posts, RR: 4
Posted (1 year 10 months 1 week 1 day 17 hours ago) and read 1201 times:

Boeing just tweeted the 737MAX firm concept

The MAX will feature 4x large displays as speculated and the front wheel bay has been removed http://boeing.mediaroom.com/index.php?s=43&item=2500


Dream no small dream; it lacks magic. Dream large, then go make that dream real - Donald Douglas
55 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlinezeke From Hong Kong, joined Dec 2006, 9102 posts, RR: 75
Reply 1, posted (1 year 10 months 1 week 1 day 16 hours ago) and read 1237 times:

That makes it two "soft" announcements in two weeks, first for the 787-10 offer that was not on offer, and this 737MAX firm concept which is not frozen.

What is the strategy here ?

We have seen Boeing do this before in my view to run up the share price before releasing less favourable news.



We are addicted to our thoughts. We cannot change anything if we cannot change our thinking – Santosh Kalwar
User currently offlinegarpd From UK - Scotland, joined Aug 2005, 2659 posts, RR: 4
Reply 2, posted (1 year 10 months 1 week 1 day 15 hours ago) and read 1237 times:

Mmmm, they've managed to eliminate the bump for the nose gear, excellent.


arpdesign.wordpress.com
User currently offlinetarheelwings From United States of America, joined Jul 2009, 209 posts, RR: 0
Reply 3, posted (1 year 10 months 1 week 1 day 15 hours ago) and read 1244 times:

Quoting zeke (Reply 1):
first for the 787-10 offer that was not on offer

Do you doubt that the 787-10 will be offered? If so, how about stating it.

Quoting oykie (Thread starter):
and this 737MAX firm concept which is not frozen.

Per the article "recently completing a major milestone in development known as Firm Concept"....what is wrong with announcing progress in the development of the 737MAX?

Some a.netters are very predictable sometimes      


User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 30992 posts, RR: 86
Reply 4, posted (1 year 10 months 1 week 1 day 15 hours ago) and read 1241 times:
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To me, the "strategy" looks to me like providing guidance on both programs.

I see the 787-10X announcement as removing the "X(perimental)" part. Boeing's been muttering about doing a 787-10 for years, but now they're committed to making it happen.

And with the 737MAX at "firm concept", they now know what features the plane is going to have and now they will work on integrating them into design.


As for "less than favorable news", Boeing will be announcing record orders and record deliveries at the end of the year. Indeed that should hammer the stock price.  


User currently offlinezeke From Hong Kong, joined Dec 2006, 9102 posts, RR: 75
Reply 5, posted (1 year 10 months 1 week 1 day 14 hours ago) and read 1230 times:

Quoting Stitch (Reply 4):

I assume you are talking about selective products, overall are they not behind their goal ?



We are addicted to our thoughts. We cannot change anything if we cannot change our thinking – Santosh Kalwar
User currently offlinequeb From Canada, joined May 2010, 685 posts, RR: 3
Reply 6, posted (1 year 10 months 1 week 1 day 14 hours ago) and read 1228 times:

No more bliss, thanks to radial tires, nose gear retracts further into the wheel well

http://leehamnews.wordpress.com/2012/11/15/boeing-737-max-update/


User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 30992 posts, RR: 86
Reply 7, posted (1 year 10 months 1 week 1 day 13 hours ago) and read 1230 times:
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Quoting zeke (Reply 5):
I assume you are talking about selective products, overall are they not behind their goal?

In general, Boeing's quarter-to-quarter results have been better than 2011's. The overall change between 2011 and 2012 has been positive outside of Operating Margin, which has fallen about 0.7 points (to 7.9% from 8.6%). They have also raised their full year guidance, so if anything, they appear to generally be ahead of goal.

[Edited 2012-11-15 09:16:39]

User currently offlinetdscanuck From Canada, joined Jan 2006, 12709 posts, RR: 79
Reply 8, posted (1 year 10 months 1 week 1 day 13 hours ago) and read 1226 times:

Quoting zeke (Reply 5):
I assume you are talking about selective products, overall are they not behind their goal ?

Which goal? As far as I know, they're on track to meet/beat almost all the financial targets (which is all the market really cares about) and the programs all seem to be doing about what they're supposed to be doing at this point based on past guidance.

Tom.


User currently offlinewingman From Seychelles, joined May 1999, 2262 posts, RR: 5
Reply 9, posted (1 year 10 months 1 week 1 day 13 hours ago) and read 1224 times:

I think what he means is that Boeing will declare Chapter 11 in January and fully capitulate to Airbus. The next day our nuclear arsenal will self detonate and the United States will disappear into the dusty annals of failed nation states.

Keep dreaming Captain.


User currently onlineBlueSky1976 From Poland, joined Jul 2004, 1884 posts, RR: 4
Reply 10, posted (1 year 10 months 1 week 1 day 13 hours ago) and read 1223 times:

From the press release:

Quote:
The team also has defined the high-speed aerodynamic lines for the 737 MAX. Through analysis and testing conducted in high- and low-speed wind tunnels, the 737 MAX design team has further refined the geometric shape of the airplane, eliminating the need for the small bump on the nose-gear door that appeared in earlier design iterations.

Good new. No. GREAT news!

This blister thingy was an eyesore. I'm glad Boeing engineers were able to get rid of it for good.



STOP TERRORRUSSIA!!!
User currently offlinephxa340 From United States of America, joined Mar 2012, 891 posts, RR: 1
Reply 11, posted (1 year 10 months 1 week 1 day 13 hours ago) and read 1221 times:

Quoting zeke (Reply 1):
We have seen Boeing do this before in my view to run up the share price before releasing less favourable news.

1. That they are almost at their goal of selling 1,000 MAX Aircraft in 1 year
2. That they are going to deliver their goal of 787s and raised production
3. That they have successfully raised 777 production

Just awful news from Puget Sound  


User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 30992 posts, RR: 86
Reply 12, posted (1 year 10 months 1 week 1 day 13 hours ago) and read 1219 times:
Support Airliners.net - become a First Class Member!

Anyway, before we drag this thread so off-topic the Moderators close it...

Referring to the report from Leeham.net that queb linked to, UBS Securities seems to be a bit worried that "design creep" might have grown to the point that they fear Boeing might have to re-certify the MAX, as opposed to just amending the existing 737 Type Certificate.

Also, it appears Boeing is not yet concerned about no customers having publicly committing to the 737-7. I would hazard a guess that AA might add the type as they have shown there is a need for a 737-7 / A319-100neo in their fleet for "secondary domestic markets, select markets in Latin America and high-alrtudue or short-runway airports". Beverly Wyse, VP and GM of the 737 Program, identified these as missions she felt the 737-7 would appeal to operators.


User currently offlineodwyerpw From Mexico, joined Dec 2004, 856 posts, RR: 3
Reply 13, posted (1 year 10 months 1 week 1 day 13 hours ago) and read 1217 times:

Yesterday, Airbus reaches 1500 sales for the NEO. Great news.

Today, Boeing releases updates to the MAX program. Improvements to the cockpit (Thought the cockpit would go untouched. This is welcome news.) and the proposed bump on the nose gear door is removed (Mo more aerodynamic penalty to accomodate lengthened nose gear. This is welcome news too.).

Personally, i'm relieved to see a little mission creep with the plane. I imagine they are having a few discussions with customers and regulators about ways to modify the cockpit and still keep type certification. If for no other reason than to reduce build costs, by changing a few of the assemblies. I hope they make a few changes to the overhead panel as well.



Quiero una vida simple en Mexico. Nada mas.
User currently offlinebikerthai From United States of America, joined Apr 2010, 2131 posts, RR: 4
Reply 14, posted (1 year 10 months 1 week 1 day 13 hours ago) and read 1217 times:

Sounds like Boeing is just getting with the times . . .

Dribbling out information to keep people interested.

Better than just keeping quiet until major milestones and risk being left behind like a certain political party I know.

bt



Intelligent seeks knowledge. Enlightened seeks wisdom.
User currently offlineRevelation From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 12561 posts, RR: 25
Reply 15, posted (1 year 10 months 1 week 1 day 12 hours ago) and read 1216 times:

Quoting zeke (Reply 1):
That makes it two "soft" announcements in two weeks, first for the 787-10 offer that was not on offer, and this 737MAX firm concept which is not frozen.

What is the strategy here ?

Not sure what issue you are raising. It's normal in engineering circles to have a concept commit before a design freeze, and I don't have any issue at all with Boeing communicating that the concept commit has been reached, especially given there are a large number of customers who've already put money down on it so are sure to want such news to be communicated.

Of course the design freeze isn't even a freeze, many aspects still end up being worked out right till the time it ships and beyond. Typically it just means the engineering community has a design that they feel will meet the requirements, but of course some times it doesn't and so it needs to change.



Inspiration, move me brightly!
User currently offlinephxa340 From United States of America, joined Mar 2012, 891 posts, RR: 1
Reply 16, posted (1 year 10 months 1 week 1 day 12 hours ago) and read 1218 times:

Quoting Stitch (Reply 12):
UBS Securities seems to be a bit worried that "design creep" might have grown to the point that they fear Boeing might have to re-certify the MAX, as opposed to just amending the existing 737 Type Certificate.

I am confident Boeing would want to avoid this at all cost, it sounds like Boeing wants to push the envelope as much as possible without requiring re-certification.


User currently offlinesweair From Sweden, joined Nov 2011, 1824 posts, RR: 0
Reply 17, posted (1 year 10 months 1 week 1 day 12 hours ago) and read 1221 times:

The NSA is pushed aside for another 20 years I guess. When the NSA enters the market a few new competitors have arrived so it better be good.

Maybe Zeke will fly Boeing gear in the future, I am sure he would love that  


User currently offlinepacksonflight From Iceland, joined Jan 2010, 381 posts, RR: 0
Reply 18, posted (1 year 10 months 1 week 1 day 12 hours ago) and read 1220 times:

Quoting phxa340 (Reply 16):
I am confident Boeing would want to avoid this at all cost, it sounds like Boeing wants to push the envelope as much as possible without requiring re-certific

I was under the impression that they already did that with the NG


User currently offlinemffoda From United States of America, joined Apr 2010, 1072 posts, RR: 0
Reply 19, posted (1 year 10 months 1 week 1 day 12 hours ago) and read 1219 times:

Quoting packsonflight (Reply 18):
Quoting phxa340 (Reply 16):
I am confident Boeing would want to avoid this at all cost, it sounds like Boeing wants to push the envelope as much as possible without requiring re-certific

I was under the impression that they already did that with the NG

They did. So, this should be very minor in comparison.  



harder than woodpecker lips...
User currently offlinerheinwaldner From Switzerland, joined Jan 2008, 2225 posts, RR: 5
Reply 20, posted (1 year 10 months 1 week 1 day 11 hours ago) and read 1215 times:

Is a firm concept about the same as preliminary guarantee?
To my uneducated perception dozens of firm concepts have been launched to answer the NEO since its launch....


User currently offlineRoseflyer From United States of America, joined Feb 2004, 9642 posts, RR: 52
Reply 21, posted (1 year 10 months 1 week 1 day 11 hours ago) and read 1216 times:

Unless you are familiar with the design process, firm concept means little to you. However, in reality it is a major milestone.

Firm concept is a huge milestone in a program. It means that basically all the trade studies have been complete. There is a plan for production. High level decisions have been made. Boeing will have already began tenders for information from potential suppliers. They’ll be achieving firm configuration next year which is what triggers engineers to actually release engineering.

Airplanes are typically offered for sale around Firm Concept. Airbus pressured the MAX to being offered early in the design process, which is something typically avoided. At Firm Concept, the projections for operating costs are fairly well known. At this point Boeing can begin promising efficiency targets to airlines.

Because of the importance of Firm Concept and Firm Configuration, I have routinely cast doubt on anyone providing performance comparisons between the MAX and competing models. Until you get to this point in the design process, Boeing truly does not know what the efficiency numbers will turn out like. Projections are fair, but you can’t have legitimate comparisons. Because of the early offering for sale on the MAX, airlines have been relying on preliminary figures when making purchase decisions.

Quoting zeke (Reply 1):
That makes it two "soft" announcements in two weeks, first for the 787-10 offer that was not on offer, and this 737MAX firm concept which is not frozen.

What is the strategy here ?

We have seen Boeing do this before in my view to run up the share price before releasing less favourable news.

Firm Concept is different from Firm Configuration which is “frozen”. Firm Configuration won’t happen until midway through next year. Firm Configuration means that suppliers have been selected and they are going to start work on releasing engineering. The MAX is still a long way from that.

The strategy is that Boeing is making progress on the 737MAX design and announcing a huge internal milestone. I don’t know why anyone would relate achieving a major design milestone with the impeding less favorable news.



If you have never designed an airplane part before, let the real designers do the work!
User currently offlineRoseflyer From United States of America, joined Feb 2004, 9642 posts, RR: 52
Reply 22, posted (1 year 10 months 1 week 1 day 10 hours ago) and read 1222 times:

Quoting rheinwaldner (Reply 20):
Is a firm concept about the same as preliminary guarantee?

Basically Yes. Any numbers promised earlier had additional conservatism built in to them. Boeing may have seen preliminary estimates saying 15% improvement, yet they only would go on record promising 12% because of not wanting to make promises that couldn't be kept.

Quoting rheinwaldner (Reply 20):
To my uneducated perception dozens of firm concepts have been launched to answer the NEO since its launch....

Those haven't been announced by Boeing as firm concepts. Seeing a concept sketch, and Boeing announcing completions of significant trade studies (winglet, nose gear stretch, etc) are not firm concepts. Boeing uses a gated design process. The NSA never got anywhere near firm concept. Nothing that you hear from marketing teams is firm concept. You get that from the engineering teams.

[Edited 2012-11-15 12:46:24]


If you have never designed an airplane part before, let the real designers do the work!
User currently offlineJAAlbert From United States of America, joined Jan 2006, 1600 posts, RR: 1
Reply 23, posted (1 year 10 months 1 week 1 day 10 hours ago) and read 1222 times:

The 737-MAX will have a new electronic bleed air system supplied by Honeywell. Does this mean the bleed air is going the way of the 787? If so, I think that's a major departure for this plane.

User currently offlineCM From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 24, posted (1 year 10 months 1 week 1 day 10 hours ago) and read 1222 times:

Quoting rheinwaldner (Reply 20):
Is a firm concept about the same as preliminary guarantee?

Guarantees can be offered at any point in the PD process. What changes is the tolerance from nominal performance. Firm Concept reduces that tolerance down to something quite comfortable for most operators, and close to the tolerance you would see on guarantees for an already in-service aircraft.

Quoting JAAlbert (Reply 23):
The 737-MAX will have a new electronic bleed air system supplied by Honeywell. Does this mean the bleed air is going the way of the 787?

No, it is digital in its control (as opposed to analog - using bleed pressure for control sensing and muscle pressure to valves). It is still a full bleed systems architecture, the same as the NG.


User currently offlinetdscanuck From Canada, joined Jan 2006, 12709 posts, RR: 79
Reply 25, posted (1 year 10 months 1 week 1 day 9 hours ago) and read 1761 times:

Quoting zeke (Reply 1):
What is the strategy here ?

Keep a.net quiet because we're constantly whining that the OEM's don't tell us enough about how their programs are progressing?

Tom.


User currently offlineodwyerpw From Mexico, joined Dec 2004, 856 posts, RR: 3
Reply 26, posted (1 year 10 months 1 week 1 day 9 hours ago) and read 1796 times:

Firm Concept means that we can also stop debating whether or not Boeing will convert to 777 style windows like they have on their last 2 reworks (767-400, 747-8) for the 737Max.

777-style Windows On 737RE? (by 1337Delta764 Jul 20 2011 in Civil Aviation)

777 Interiors On A 737, Possible? (by LH4116 Sep 10 2008 in Civil Aviation)

737max Windows - Any Update? (by captainstefan Jul 22 2012 in Civil Aviation)



Quiero una vida simple en Mexico. Nada mas.
User currently offlineJAAlbert From United States of America, joined Jan 2006, 1600 posts, RR: 1
Reply 27, posted (1 year 10 months 1 week 1 day 6 hours ago) and read 1890 times:

Quoting odwyerpw (Reply 26):
Firm Concept means that we can also stop debating whether or not Boeing will convert to 777 style windows like they have on their last 2 reworks (767-400, 747-8) for the 737Max.

Come on now -- put the 777 windows in the MAX for crying out loud! Or be really daring and add the 787 windows! Now that would be a plane! (I know, I know, never gonna happen, but still )


User currently offlineTWA772LR From United States of America, joined Nov 2011, 2055 posts, RR: 1
Reply 28, posted (1 year 10 months 1 week 1 day 5 hours ago) and read 1791 times:

Quoting JAAlbert (Reply 28):
Or be really daring and add the 787 windows! Now that would be a plane! (I know, I know, never gonna happen, but still )

Why not?



Go coogs! \n//
User currently offlinenomadd22 From United States of America, joined Feb 2008, 1866 posts, RR: 0
Reply 29, posted (1 year 10 months 1 week 1 day 4 hours ago) and read 1797 times:

Quoting TWA772LR (Reply 29):
Quoting JAAlbert (Reply 28):
Or be really daring and add the 787 windows! Now that would be a plane! (I know, I know, never gonna happen, but still )

Why not?

Because small, aluminum fuselages don't like having lots of large holes cut in them. The extra structure needed to beef it up would weigh a whole lot. They're not even using those big windows in the 748.



Andy Goetsch
User currently offlineAmerican 767 From United States of America, joined May 1999, 3795 posts, RR: 12
Reply 30, posted (1 year 10 months 1 week 1 day 1 hour ago) and read 1682 times:
AIRLINERS.NET CREW
FORUM MODERATOR

I was going to ask if it will be built using composite materials like on the 787 or it will continue to be built with Aluminium foils. Of course with some composite surfaces like on current modern civil aircraft, I mean an Aluminium metal tube for the fuselage.

But after reading the last few replies, it seems to me that it will continue to be built with Aluminium foils unlike the 787. Where does Boeing get raw material from?

Ben Soriano



Ben Soriano
User currently offlinetdscanuck From Canada, joined Jan 2006, 12709 posts, RR: 79
Reply 31, posted (1 year 10 months 1 week 1 day 1 hour ago) and read 1662 times:

Quoting American 767 (Reply 31):
But after reading the last few replies, it seems to me that it will continue to be built with Aluminium foils unlike the 787. Where does Boeing get raw material from?

Most of the aluminum comes from Alcoa.

Tom.


User currently offlineODwyerPW From Mexico, joined Dec 2004, 856 posts, RR: 3
Reply 32, posted (1 year 10 months 1 week 1 day ago) and read 1632 times:

Quoting JAAlbert (Reply 28):
Come on now -- put the 777 windows in the MAX for crying out loud! Or be really daring and add the 787 windows! Now that would be a plane! (I know, I know, never gonna happen, but still )

I agree. I want them too. But I don't engineer, sell or purchase 737s, so I don't get a vote. I do fly allot in them though...almost exclusively! Just seems to be the plane doing allot of work between Upstate NY to SouthWest AZ.



Quiero una vida simple en Mexico. Nada mas.
User currently offlinezeke From Hong Kong, joined Dec 2006, 9102 posts, RR: 75
Reply 33, posted (1 year 10 months 1 week 22 hours ago) and read 1594 times:

Quoting tdscanuck (Reply 8):

A company maybe in the black and still behind budget. All I was saying is that it was my understanding they were behind this years delivery targets on two of the newer products, the two mature products ahead, and one not doing much at all.

Quoting Revelation (Reply 15):
Not sure what issue you are raising. It's normal in engineering circles to have a concept commit before a design freeze, and I don't have any issue at all with Boeing communicating that the concept commit has been reached, especially given there are a large number of customers who've already put money down on it so are sure to want such news to be communicated.

I have not seen Boeing use the term firm concept. I do not recall this being used on other recent development like the 747-8 or 787, or even the 787 derivatives. You say it is a normal gate used by Boeing in the design process, I do not know any different. I just have not seen them use this before, and do not realize the significance.

With the 787-10 announcement, it said they can now go and talk to airlines, however I know from our internal dealings that they have been talking to airlines for a long time about the 787-10 concept, and the 777X concept, so I did not know what that press release was supposed to mean either.

I described them as being soft as in both cases they had a way to go before for example the 737MAX is frozen, or the 787-10 is offered.

Quoting Revelation (Reply 15):
Of course the design freeze isn't even a freeze, many aspects still end up being worked out right till the time it ships and beyond.

I understand that as well, which begs the question, if frozen does not mean it is immune from further changes, what does a firm concept mean ?



We are addicted to our thoughts. We cannot change anything if we cannot change our thinking – Santosh Kalwar
User currently offlineODwyerPW From Mexico, joined Dec 2004, 856 posts, RR: 3
Reply 34, posted (1 year 10 months 1 week 21 hours ago) and read 1537 times:

Quoting zeke (Reply 33):
I understand that as well, which begs the question, if frozen does not mean it is immune from further changes, what does a firm concept mean ?

It means it's good news. No need to put any other spin on it or back peddle.

Quoting tdscanuck (Reply 25):
Keep a.net quiet because we're constantly whining that the OEM's don't tell us enough about how their programs are progressing?

But if I were required to explain it, I would simply offer Tom's words above.



Quiero una vida simple en Mexico. Nada mas.
User currently offlinezeke From Hong Kong, joined Dec 2006, 9102 posts, RR: 75
Reply 35, posted (1 year 10 months 1 week 21 hours ago) and read 1555 times:

Quoting ODwyerPW (Reply 34):

But if I were required to explain it, I would simply offer Tom's words above.

I do not recall a large thirst of such information on here, we are not seeing lots of threads on the 737MAX concept. I do not think the target audience was a.net.

Even this thread has not seen a lot of interest.



We are addicted to our thoughts. We cannot change anything if we cannot change our thinking – Santosh Kalwar
User currently offlinebikerthai From United States of America, joined Apr 2010, 2131 posts, RR: 4
Reply 36, posted (1 year 10 months 1 week 16 hours ago) and read 1461 times:

Quoting zeke (Reply 33):

I have not seen Boeing use the term firm concept

Even within Boeing these terms do evolve as process changes. Starting with the 777, airliners have continued to become more involved in new airplane programs earlier and earlier in the process. As things evolve new terminology get incorporated into the business system to adapt to the changing process. Remember the time when the only thing the public was made aware of was PDR and CDR?

bt



Intelligent seeks knowledge. Enlightened seeks wisdom.
User currently offlineCXB77L From Australia, joined Feb 2009, 2614 posts, RR: 5
Reply 37, posted (1 year 10 months 1 week 16 hours ago) and read 1455 times:
AIRLINERS.NET CREW
CHAT OPERATOR

Quoting JAAlbert (Reply 27):
Come on now -- put the 777 windows in the MAX for crying out loud!

What would be the point in doing that? There is no return of investment here ... all it will do is perhaps appease the passengers with a larger window. There will be no aerodynamic advantages. Conversely, the disadvantage would be increased weight.



Boeing 777 fanboy
User currently offlinetdscanuck From Canada, joined Jan 2006, 12709 posts, RR: 79
Reply 38, posted (1 year 10 months 1 week 16 hours ago) and read 1471 times:

Quoting zeke (Reply 33):
A company maybe in the black and still behind budget.

Absolutely true, but it's very hard to be behind budget and simultaneously exceeding analyst expectations and your own earnings guidance from earlier in the year.

Quoting zeke (Reply 33):
I have not seen Boeing use the term firm concept. I do not recall this being used on other recent development like the 747-8 or 787, or even the 787 derivatives.

It goes back to at least 2003 (when the 787 was the 7E7). I'm not sure when Boeing instituted the gated review process that includes "firm concept" as a milestone, but it's at least 9 years old.
http://forum.keypublishing.com/showthread.php?t=17635

Quoting zeke (Reply 33):
With the 787-10 announcement, it said they can now go and talk to airlines, however I know from our internal dealings that they have been talking to airlines for a long time about the 787-10 concept, and the 777X concept, so I did not know what that press release was supposed to mean either.

It means they passed a program milestone called "firm concept". Just because you haven't seen the term before doesn't mean it isn't a real milestone or that it doesn't have a good definition.

Quoting zeke (Reply 33):
I understand that as well, which begs the question, if frozen does not mean it is immune from further changes, what does a firm concept mean ?

Even designs in current production aren't immune from future changes; that's not a criteria for anything.

According to Boeing's own words, "firm concept" means:
-defining the significant changes needed to deliver the performance we've committed to our customers
-defining the high-speed aerodynamic lines
-defining the factory plan

Equally relevantly, it means they haven't *started* detailed design (which starts mid-2013). Firm configuration will have to happen before detailed design can begin.

Quoting zeke (Reply 35):
I do not recall a large thirst of such information on here, we are not seeing lots of threads on the 737MAX concept.

I agree that the "thirst" around 737MAX is lower, but a.net as a collective whole constantly bitches about how the manufacturers don't tell us the details of what's going on. Then, when they do, we bitch that what they're telling us isn't a big deal, is "soft", is trying to boost the stock price, yada yada yada...

Quoting zeke (Reply 35):
I do not think the target audience was a.net.

I agree. It was partly a joke.

Tom.


User currently offlineRevelation From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 12561 posts, RR: 25
Reply 39, posted (1 year 10 months 1 week 13 hours ago) and read 1418 times:

Quoting zeke (Reply 33):
I understand that as well, which begs the question, if frozen does not mean it is immune from further changes, what does a firm concept mean ?

I like the description in #21 because IIRC Roseflyer has worked with Boeing and with its suppliers:

Quoting Roseflyer (Reply 21):
Firm concept is a huge milestone in a program. It means that basically all the trade studies have been complete. There is a plan for production. High level decisions have been made. Boeing will have already began tenders for information from potential suppliers. They’ll be achieving firm configuration next year which is what triggers engineers to actually release engineering.

It's similar yet different in my company, where it means marketing and engineering agree on what the product will be and engineering agrees it can deliver such a product, but may not yet know exactly how it will deliver such a product. As Roseflyer says, this means trade studies have been done, i.e. engineering has done enough to convince itself it can deliver such a product. From that point on in my company, marketing is largely out of the picture, unless engineering finds during the next phase(s) that it can't deliver on some aspect of the product.

For instance it may have been a marketing requirement to deliver a level of efficiency that made engineering study if they can't get rid of the nose blister, since having the nose blister may have led them to believe they would not make marketing's desired level of efficiency. Of course I'm just speculating on this, it may be totally unrelated.

I wouldn't get hung up on the word "firm" since all kinds of things change as the product is developed and tested, and even after it ships to customers.



Inspiration, move me brightly!
User currently offlineMountainFlyer From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 476 posts, RR: 0
Reply 40, posted (1 year 10 months 1 week 13 hours ago) and read 1415 times:

Quoting queb (Reply 6):
No more bliss, thanks to radial tires, nose gear retracts further into the wheel well

Pardon my lack of technical knowledge here, but how does having radial tires allow the nose gear to retract further? Are most aircraft tires not radial?



SA-227; B1900; Q200; Q400; CRJ-2,7,9; 717; 727-2; 737-3,4,5,7,8,9; 747-2; 757-2,3; 767-3,4; MD-90; A319, 320; DC-9; DC-1
User currently offlinemffoda From United States of America, joined Apr 2010, 1072 posts, RR: 0
Reply 41, posted (1 year 10 months 1 week 12 hours ago) and read 1406 times:

Quoting MountainFlyer (Reply 40):
Pardon my lack of technical knowledge here, but how does having radial tires allow the nose gear to retract further? Are most aircraft tires not radial?

No they're mostly bias ply tires. However, radial is where they are now heading. The 787 is standard with only radial tires and I believe the A380 as well.

[Edited 2012-11-16 10:23:23]


harder than woodpecker lips...
User currently offlineRoseflyer From United States of America, joined Feb 2004, 9642 posts, RR: 52
Reply 42, posted (1 year 10 months 1 week 12 hours ago) and read 1392 times:

Quoting MountainFlyer (Reply 40):
Pardon my lack of technical knowledge here, but how does having radial tires allow the nose gear to retract further? Are most aircraft tires not radial?

Radial may allow a smaller tire than the conventional Bias Ply



If you have never designed an airplane part before, let the real designers do the work!
User currently offlinebarney captain From United States of America, joined Nov 2001, 965 posts, RR: 12
Reply 43, posted (1 year 10 months 1 week 11 hours ago) and read 1393 times:

Quoting Roseflyer (Reply 42):
Radial may allow a smaller tire than the conventional Bias Ply

But wasn't the reason for the 8 inch stretch on the nose gear to get greater ground clearance? Wouldn't a smaller tire somewhat defeat the purpose? Mountain raises a good question.

FWIW, yesterday we saw what the MAX cockpit panel will look like with the 4 large-format displays. It presents a very cleaned up appearance with things like the clocks and "steam gauges" being removed completely - with the exception of what looks like the brake pressure gauge. The layout is also different. The 4 displays occupy most of the forward panel with the brake pressure gauge top dead center, directly below that is the Electronic Integrated Stand-by Display. Directly below that are the landing gear indicators followed by a smaller and relocated landing gear lever - now dead center bottom. One thing I couldn't spot was the flap gauge - possibly it's integrated in the displays or is in fact what in the drawing looks like the brake pressure gauge - hard to tell.



...from the Banana Republic....
User currently offlineRoseflyer From United States of America, joined Feb 2004, 9642 posts, RR: 52
Reply 44, posted (1 year 10 months 1 week 11 hours ago) and read 1387 times:

Quoting barney captain (Reply 43):
It presents a very cleaned up appearance with things like the clocks and "steam gauges" being removed completely - with the exception of what looks like the brake pressure gauge.

On Boeing airplanes you see a separate brake pressure gauge because you need to be able to check brake pressure when the airplane is powered down. You wouldn't want to have your brake pressure bleed off and have the airplane roll away with the parking brake still set, so that's the reason why it isn't integrated.



If you have never designed an airplane part before, let the real designers do the work!
User currently offlinebarney captain From United States of America, joined Nov 2001, 965 posts, RR: 12
Reply 45, posted (1 year 10 months 1 week 11 hours ago) and read 1387 times:

Rose -

Thanks! I need my morning coffee to kick in but of course, that's correct. Have you seen the panel layout that was sent out? Very impressive to be sure. Let's just hope the overhead get's the same LUV  



...from the Banana Republic....
User currently offlineTristarsteve From Sweden, joined Nov 2005, 4009 posts, RR: 33
Reply 46, posted (1 year 10 months 1 week 11 hours ago) and read 1389 times:

Quoting mffoda (Reply 41):
No they're mostly bias ply tires. However, radial is where they are now heading. The 787 is standard with only radial tires and I believe the A380 as well

Well The B777 and the A320 family has always had radial tyres from the start. It is only in the past few years that it has been an option on the B737.

I like radial tyres. They are much more resistant to ramp damage.

Can anyone explain how the nose blister has gone? Is there some complicated geometry change on the nose leg?


User currently offlinePITingres From United States of America, joined Dec 2007, 1144 posts, RR: 13
Reply 47, posted (1 year 10 months 1 week 10 hours ago) and read 1381 times:

Quoting Tristarsteve (Reply 46):
Can anyone explain how the nose blister has gone? Is there some complicated geometry change on the nose leg?

Completely wild guess here, but if the radial tire is thinner, it may be that they could jigger things enough to fit it deeper into the well without shouldering up against something. Or possibly the original physically fit, but without enough room for tolerances and cooling, and an inch or so thinner makes it work. The better heat tolerance and performance of the radial might allow for a thinner tire spec.



Fly, you fools! Fly!
User currently offlinebarney captain From United States of America, joined Nov 2001, 965 posts, RR: 12
Reply 48, posted (1 year 10 months 1 week 10 hours ago) and read 1377 times:

All valid points but at the end of the day, the nose gear was lengthened 8" for increased ground clearance with the lager fans. Installing a smaller tire seems counter intuitive, no?


...from the Banana Republic....
User currently offlineAreopagus From United States of America, joined exactly 13 years ago today! , 1369 posts, RR: 1
Reply 49, posted (1 year 10 months 1 week 10 hours ago) and read 1381 times:

I'll hazard a guess. The nose gear is 8 inches longer, with a smaller tire and a strut that is more than 8 inches longer. When the gear is retracted, it runs parallel to the skin, requiring a longer well. But the smaller tire occupies less depth normal to the skin, which means no blister is required.

User currently offlineCM From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 50, posted (1 year 10 months 1 week 9 hours ago) and read 1372 times:

Quoting barney captain (Reply 43):
Wouldn't a smaller tire somewhat defeat the purpose?
Quoting Areopagus (Reply 49):
The nose gear is 8 inches longer, with a smaller tire and a strut that is more than 8 inches longer.

Just to clarify. The new radial tire is the same size as the bias-ply. Here is how radial helps with retracting the gear farther into the well:

When a wheel well is designed, it is sized for the diameter of tire, plus some additional space for what is called a "grown" tire. The grown tire volume accounts for the deformation (elongation) of the tire when it is spinning at high RPM. A bias-ply tire "grows" more from centrifugal force than a radial tire. As a result, the volume needed in the wheel well for a radial tire is less than for a bias-ply tire. Radial tires permit the gear to retract the tire closer to the upper bulkhead of the doghouse. It also permits the gear doors to be located closer to the tire. These two things together is how radial tires helped Boeing to eliminate the blister on the lower fuselage of the MAX.


User currently offlinezeke From Hong Kong, joined Dec 2006, 9102 posts, RR: 75
Reply 51, posted (1 year 10 months 1 week 5 hours ago) and read 1331 times:

Quoting tdscanuck (Reply 38):
Absolutely true, but it's very hard to be behind budget and simultaneously exceeding analyst expectations and your own earnings guidance from earlier in the year.

Agreed, however my thoughts do have some substance to them, Jon Ostrower at The Wall Street Journal had this in a recent article "Boeing Hits a Milestone"

"Boeing reported that first-quarter profit at its Commercial Airplanes division more than doubled to $1.08 billion from a year earlier. But the company acknowledges that accounting for the costs of each individual plane would have resulted in a first-quarter loss of $138 million%u2014a drop UBS analyst David Strauss says is almost entirely attributable to the Dreamliner.

The Dreamliner%u2019s drain on cash is balanced by strong sales of the profitable single-aisle 737 and long-range 777 models. And analysts estimate Boeing is reducing the losses per Dreamliner by about $10 million each quarter. But maintaining the pace of cost reduction gets harder as the simplest problems are solved. Meanwhile, Boeing aims to increase production of Dreamliners to 10 per month at the end of 2013, up from 3.5 per month today%u2014meaning the losses per plane will be magnified, but will also be tempered by the decreasing cost of each jet."

I think without program accounting, the numbers in the earning guidance would be very different.

Quoting tdscanuck (Reply 38):
It goes back to at least 2003 (when the 787 was the 7E7). I'm not sure when Boeing instituted the gated review process that includes "firm concept" as a milestone, but it's at least 9 years old.

That article has the firm concept before the authority to offer, any reason you see why it is in a different order this time ?

Quoting CM (Reply 50):
When a wheel well is designed, it is sized for the diameter of tire, plus some additional space for what is called a "grown" tire. The grown tire volume accounts for the deformation (elongation) of the tire when it is spinning at high RPM. A bias-ply tire "grows" more from centrifugal force than a radial tire. As a result, the volume needed in the wheel well for a radial tire is less than for a bias-ply tire. Radial tires permit the gear to retract the tire closer to the upper bulkhead of the doghouse. It also permits the gear doors to be located closer to the tire. These two things together is how radial tires helped Boeing to eliminate the blister on the lower fuselage of the MAX.

That makes a lot of sense.

Link from the WSJ article

We are addicted to our thoughts. We cannot change anything if we cannot change our thinking – Santosh Kalwar
User currently offlinetdscanuck From Canada, joined Jan 2006, 12709 posts, RR: 79
Reply 52, posted (1 year 10 months 1 week 3 hours ago) and read 1298 times:

Quoting zeke (Reply 51):
I think without program accounting, the numbers in the earning guidance would be very different.

Absolutely. But that's true for any major accounting change (ExxonMobil would lose about $8 billion dollars off their bottom line if they switched from LIFO to FIFO accounting). Boeing's been using program accounting for decades, all the analysts know that, and it's all priced into the market.

Saying that Boeing would have different numbers if they switched off program accounting (undoubtedly true) is *very* different from your original claim:

Quoting zeke (Reply 5):
overall are they not behind their goal ?
Quoting zeke (Reply 51):
That article has the firm concept before the authority to offer, any reason you see why it is in a different order this time ?

No idea what it actually went that way, but one potential reason could be that the 7E7 was a new type that had almost everything new, so I can see an argument about why you'd want to get a lot farther down the design path before you decide to offer it for sale.

Tom.


User currently offlineRevelation From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 12561 posts, RR: 25
Reply 53, posted (1 year 10 months 1 week 3 hours ago) and read 1284 times:

Quoting barney captain (Reply 43):
Quoting Roseflyer (Reply 42):
Radial may allow a smaller tire than the conventional Bias Ply

But wasn't the reason for the 8 inch stretch on the nose gear to get greater ground clearance? Wouldn't a smaller tire somewhat defeat the purpose?
Quoting CM (Reply 50):
Here is how radial helps with retracting the gear farther into the well:

Right, the main issue is how to get the tire back into the well, not the ground clearance.



Inspiration, move me brightly!
User currently onlineJoeCanuck From Canada, joined Dec 2005, 5465 posts, RR: 30
Reply 54, posted (1 year 10 months 1 week 2 hours ago) and read 1285 times:

Quoting Revelation (Reply 53):
Right, the main issue is how to get the tire back into the well, not the ground clearance.

I think they're both pretty important. If clearance wasn't an issue, getting the tire back into the well wouldn't be either.



What the...?
User currently offlineRoseflyer From United States of America, joined Feb 2004, 9642 posts, RR: 52
Reply 55, posted (1 year 10 months 1 week 1 hour ago) and read 1287 times:

Quoting zeke (Reply 51):
That article has the firm concept before the authority to offer, any reason you see why it is in a different order this time ?

It is because the NEO sold at a record pace. We all know Boeing rushed the MAX to customers earlier than they wanted to. The consequences are that they have to sell it with more conservative figures in case the trade studies did not come out favorably. Since they put it for sale earlier and airplanes are sold on lifecycle figures, they had to come in with more aggressive prices than the board usually wants.



If you have never designed an airplane part before, let the real designers do the work!
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