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Is The Pilot Job Market Going To Boom? Part 1  
User currently offlineprizeframe From France, joined Nov 2012, 8 posts, RR: 0
Posted (1 year 9 months 1 week 6 days 9 hours ago) and read 15846 times:

Hey!

Researching the pilot job market right now as a student.
Do you think/know if the pilot job market is going to boom? For what types of pilots?
I saw two articles stating just that and I'd like to learn more about the subject - if it's true or not.
If there's anything that points to the opposite, and sources on that would be great.

Is Boeings predictions valid?

Is there any number or estimation on if it there's a lot of unemployed pilots? If not, you think it's a big number or just a small amount?

I value your views and would be awesome to get more educated about this.

http://www.airforcetimes.com/news/20...mercial-pilot-market-boom-072211w/

and

http://travel.usatoday.com/flights/s...line-pilots-set-to-soar/48661596/1

and

http://www.planetalkinglive.com/2012...and-airline-pilot-technician-jobs/

225 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineAcey559 From United States of America, joined Jan 2007, 1532 posts, RR: 2
Reply 1, posted (1 year 9 months 1 week 6 days 8 hours ago) and read 15923 times:

The consensus among many is that with the upcoming flight time requirements, new duty rigs and large numbers of retirements, it will create the need for pilots. The major airlines though will not have a shortage however, because of the number of qualified applicants from the regional and (to a lesser extent) corporate ranks. The regional airlines will feel the strain from this, and some already have. My airline is desperately trying to hire and can't find more than a handful, and it will only get worse as time goes on. Once the major airlines begin to hire in earnest, it will get interesting. Hopefully this will cause pay and work rules to improve in order to attract new applicants, though I'm not holding my breath for that.

User currently offlinetdscanuck From Canada, joined Jan 2006, 12709 posts, RR: 80
Reply 2, posted (1 year 9 months 1 week 6 days 8 hours ago) and read 15908 times:

Quoting prizeframe (Thread starter):
Do you think/know if the pilot job market is going to boom? For what types of pilots?

The demand is going to boom for ATP's. That may nor may not turn into improved wages and conditions for ATPs...piloting is one of those industries that, I believe, will always suffer from huge over-supply.

Quoting prizeframe (Thread starter):
Is there any number or estimation on if it there's a lot of unemployed pilots? If not, you think it's a big number or just a small amount?

There are tons of people who are pilots who aren't employed as pilots; they're not unemployed though, they just have non-pilot jobs.

Tom.


User currently offlineprizeframe From France, joined Nov 2012, 8 posts, RR: 0
Reply 3, posted (1 year 9 months 1 week 6 days 8 hours ago) and read 15890 times:

Thanks for the quick and insightful response Withheld!

Could you tell me what airline you're working for?
How does the hiring process work today, how do they find pilots? Why is it hard?


User currently offlineN766UA From United States of America, joined Jul 1999, 8232 posts, RR: 23
Reply 4, posted (1 year 9 months 1 week 6 days 8 hours ago) and read 15890 times:

Quoting tdscanuck (Reply 2):
piloting is one of those industries that, I believe, will always suffer from huge over-supply.

I think that will get less and less true as time goes on. With the new airline hiring requirements (1500 hrs, ATP), many, many pilots are deciding that the road is just not one worth traveling. I mean, really, you spend tens of thousands to get through your commercial, a few thousand more on a CFI, you spend however many months CFIing until you can get picked up flying boxes in the back of a Piper for no money, you do that for 1,000 more hours, then you finally get hired at an airline and the big payoff is…. 22,000k/year? Garbage work rules? Commuting? Crash pads? Labor disputes?

Pilots have never been pilots for the pay, the industry has always sucked, but there's just absolutely no incentive anymore.



This Website Censors Me
User currently onlineBMI727 From United States of America, joined Feb 2009, 15735 posts, RR: 26
Reply 5, posted (1 year 9 months 1 week 6 days 3 hours ago) and read 15893 times:

Quoting tdscanuck (Reply 2):
The demand is going to boom for ATP's. That may nor may not turn into improved wages and conditions for ATPs...piloting is one of those industries that, I believe, will always suffer from huge over-supply.

I would tend to agree. No matter where the requirements go or what the pay is like, shiny jet syndrome will ensure a steady stream of pilots for those who need them. If the government requires more hours, guys will do it because they like to fly. Plus the carrot of the relatively few well paying jobs at the top of major airlines, which most pilots will never approach.



Why do Aerospace Engineering students have to turn things in on time?
User currently offlineAirRyan From United States of America, joined Mar 2005, 2532 posts, RR: 5
Reply 6, posted (1 year 9 months 1 week 6 days 3 hours ago) and read 15887 times:

Here are some of the questions that you will have to ask yourself. Are doing it because you love to fly, or is it just another way of making a living? Are you willing to go to where the work is? Could be overseas (ex. Emirates or Cathay Pacific,) or the opposite end of the country. Are you willing to fly cargo with an even more so unorthodox schedule? Can you live on peanuts until you get the right gig? (Could be 10-15 years+) Can you get into military fixed wing flight training? Army WO flight training is great but there are just not a whole lot of professional helicopter jobs out there, and they are even more so unconventional and the pay is on average, meager.

Personally, I think the 1,500 hour rule will be changed before it becomes implemented because it was more so pushed by bureaucrats who don't know jack about the industry than it was the actual FAA. However, given the current level of unbelievable incompetence in D.C. right now, I wouldn't count on it. Half the current pilots in the US are over 50 so it's only logical that there will be a lot of vacancies in the next 15 years.

Choose wisely.


User currently offlineHAL From United States of America, joined Jan 2002, 2560 posts, RR: 53
Reply 7, posted (1 year 9 months 1 week 6 days 2 hours ago) and read 15891 times:

What I've seen from flight schools across the US is that there simply aren't enough new students coming up through the pipeline to satisfy the demand in the years to come.

Sure, the majors will be the last to get hurt since they are the far end of that pipeline, but the shortage is real, and it's going to hurt the bottom end first. In my 30+ years of hanging around airports (as well as working in the industry) I've never seen it so dead at both the local/regional flight schools, as well as the 'big' pilot factories & colleges.

Getting through the process of becoming a pilot takes years, so a shortage of new-starts that began before the 2008 recession would hardly be noticed right now. But as the economy picks up and pilots begin to retire in larger numbers again, the pressure will grow rapidly on regionals, cargo operators, air taxis, night freight airlines, and everyone else that depends on a steady supply of newly-minted pilots to sit in their cockpits. This is an industry that has a very long-leadtime for the production of highly skilled workers (pilots). That supply has been cut off for so long though, that the effects are finally being felt, as Acey559 said in reply #1

Ask any flight school anywhere, and you'll see that times are tough (if you're a flight school). If you are an aspiring pilot, the market couldn't be better.

Quoting N766UA (Reply 4):
I think that will get less and less true as time goes on. With the new airline hiring requirements (1500 hrs, ATP), many, many pilots are deciding that the road is just not one worth traveling. I mean, really, you spend tens of thousands to get through your commercial, a few thousand more on a CFI, you spend however many months CFIing until you can get picked up flying boxes in the back of a Piper for no money, you do that for 1,000 more hours, then you finally get hired at an airline and the big payoff is…. 22,000k/year? Garbage work rules? Commuting? Crash pads? Labor disputes?



This has been true in the industry essentially forever. It's not a new phenomenon. Have patience, and you will be rewarded. If you're looking for a quick payday, forget it.

HAL



One smooth landing is skill. Two in a row is luck. Three in a row and someone is lying.
User currently offlineAcey559 From United States of America, joined Jan 2007, 1532 posts, RR: 2
Reply 8, posted (1 year 9 months 1 week 6 days 2 hours ago) and read 15883 times:

Quoting prizeframe (Reply 3):

My pleasure. I work for American Eagle. We went through a big hiring boom last year, which was stymied by bankruptcy. We stopped hiring and furloughed 50 pilots. Shortly after, they were recalled and it was announced that we'd begin hiring again. The company knew they had to furlough in order to scare us into a new contract, but also knew that we had to retain as many as possible because finding new applicants would be difficult in the face of losing a large chunk to attrition. We officially recalled and out of 70, about 12 came back. We're now hiring but with the nee minimums (1500 hours, etc) we've only been able to find about 10 people since we started about a month ago, and it's expected to get more difficult. The company is now floating a $5,000 signing bonus on addition to higher first year pay (which is against out contract, but that's a different story). The company is desperate for people and they're just not out there, at least people who want to work here. If you have any other question, feel free to email/message me.


User currently onlineTWA772LR From United States of America, joined Nov 2011, 1896 posts, RR: 1
Reply 9, posted (1 year 9 months 1 week 5 days 23 hours ago) and read 15875 times:

Word on the street is there is supposed to be a big shortage coming up, at least in the US, of commercial (I think) pilots. And with this new 1500 rule, the shortage may last quite a while, and may even get bigger.


Go coogs! \n//
User currently offlineMir From United States of America, joined Jan 2004, 21562 posts, RR: 55
Reply 10, posted (1 year 9 months 1 week 5 days 22 hours ago) and read 15873 times:

Quoting BMI727 (Reply 5):
No matter where the requirements go or what the pay is like, shiny jet syndrome will ensure a steady stream of pilots for those who need them. If the government requires more hours, guys will do it because they like to fly.

There will always be those people, but I doubt there will be enough of them to fill all the spots that are going to be vacant. The regionals are probably going to get hit hard in a year or two, and it will be very interesting to see how things shake out.

-Mir



7 billion, one nation, imagination...it's a beautiful day
User currently offlinetrent772 From Colombia, joined Oct 2012, 121 posts, RR: 0
Reply 11, posted (1 year 9 months 1 week 5 days 21 hours ago) and read 15873 times:

If airlines get so shorthanded that the situation turns difficult for operators to find qualified pilots in the US, do you think the Government will ever open its doors to foreign pilots?

A little too much wishful thinking on my part?



Pedaling Squares…
User currently offlineual777 From United States of America, joined Aug 2003, 1550 posts, RR: 5
Reply 12, posted (1 year 9 months 1 week 5 days 21 hours ago) and read 15868 times:

Wishful thinking. Its going to get bad, but it won't be THAT bad.


It is always darkest before the sun comes up.
User currently offlineas739x From United States of America, joined Apr 2003, 6124 posts, RR: 23
Reply 13, posted (1 year 9 months 1 week 5 days 18 hours ago) and read 15867 times:

Quoting trent772 (Reply 11):
If airlines get so shorthanded that the situation turns difficult for operators to find qualified pilots in the US, do you think the Government will ever open its doors to foreign pilots?



No . the Government will stick it's foot in it's mouth realizing it made a huge mistake in raising min's to 1500. It was a reactionary move, mainly after the Colgan crash, to please the public. What the public forgets is that flying is safer than it's ever been. Also, the public outcry will now cause higher airfares in the future as pilots demand more money for their services.



"Some pilots avoid storm cells and some play connect the dots!"
User currently offlinesilentbob From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 2078 posts, RR: 1
Reply 14, posted (1 year 9 months 1 week 5 days 18 hours ago) and read 15868 times:

I don't know if reducing the 1500 to 500 would even be enough to fill the needs at the regional level in the next 3-5 years. I would not be surprised to see someone petition for single pilot operations at the regional level.

User currently offlinexjramper From United States of America, joined Dec 2003, 2460 posts, RR: 51
Reply 15, posted (1 year 9 months 1 week 5 days 17 hours ago) and read 15863 times:

Quoting silentbob (Reply 14):
I don't know if reducing the 1500 to 500 would even be enough to fill the needs at the regional level in the next 3-5 years. I would not be surprised to see someone petition for single pilot operations at the regional level.

I would be shocked if anyone wants to petition single pilot operations, ever, at least for 50+ seat aircraft.

A lot of people forget that prior to the government intervening, the hour requirements were mainly set by airline (or corporate or cargo) insurance mins. required. Perfect example of the government screwing something up yet again.

As I have feared, unless something is done with this new government reg, the aviation landscape will change like crazy, and more for the worst.



Look ma' no hands!
User currently offlinepecevanne From Mexico, joined Jun 2004, 180 posts, RR: 0
Reply 16, posted (1 year 9 months 1 week 5 days 17 hours ago) and read 15866 times:

Ask me, Mexican, training pilots in Baharain

User currently offlinesilentbob From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 2078 posts, RR: 1
Reply 17, posted (1 year 9 months 1 week 5 days 2 hours ago) and read 15860 times:

Quoting xjramper (Reply 15):
I would be shocked if anyone wants to petition single pilot operations, ever, at least for 50+ seat aircraft.

Someone will, I have no doubts. The only question is "who will it be?"


User currently offlineBostonMike From United States of America, joined Nov 2011, 47 posts, RR: 0
Reply 18, posted (1 year 9 months 1 week 4 days 11 hours ago) and read 15860 times:

Quoting silentbob (Reply 14):
I don't know if reducing the 1500 to 500 would even be enough to fill the needs at the regional level in the next 3-5 years. I would not be surprised to see someone petition for single pilot operations at the regional level.

I had the dubious distinction of learning flight procedures in a Link Trainer eons ago. My retirement flight was in command of a 777. Needless to say the level of automation developed dramatically during that period. The sophistication of drone reconnaissance and attack aircraft is increasing exponentially. Military drones now have the capability to self-determine targeting possibilities. Could there be a petition to drop the third pilot on some international flights? Yes. How long will it be until someone feels comfortable petitioning for a single pilot/robotic-assist designation?

Aviation like medicine and law are changing dramatically. Whether the cost of flight training today can be offset by a rewarding career over the next thirty years is a question best left to others.


User currently offlineMir From United States of America, joined Jan 2004, 21562 posts, RR: 55
Reply 19, posted (1 year 9 months 1 week 4 days 11 hours ago) and read 15858 times:

Quoting trent772 (Reply 11):
If airlines get so shorthanded that the situation turns difficult for operators to find qualified pilots in the US, do you think the Government will ever open its doors to foreign pilots?

A little too much wishful thinking on my part?

I believe that will be one of the options that they will look at. But here's something to keep in mind: the whole reason that would be considered is because the regionals (who would be the ones hit) don't want to pay more money to attract applicants. If that's the case, why would experienced foreign pilots with ATP qualifications want to come over to the US to work for peanuts when they could find better paying jobs elsewhere in the world.

That said, I do agree with as739x that you will probably see a reduction in the legal minimums before you see a program to expedite getting visas for foreign pilots (you can work as a pilot right now in the US if you can get a visa, but that can of course be a difficult process).

Quoting BostonMike (Reply 18):
Could there be a petition to drop the third pilot on some international flights? Yes. How long will it be until someone feels comfortable petitioning for a single pilot/robotic-assist designation?

I could see reduced crewing on long-haul flights relatively soon, but I think it will be decades before we ever see single-pilot airliners. Not saying it won't happen, because it eventually will, but it'll be a while.

-Mir



7 billion, one nation, imagination...it's a beautiful day
User currently offlinejonnyclark From United Kingdom, joined Feb 2011, 115 posts, RR: 0
Reply 20, posted (1 year 9 months 1 week 4 days 7 hours ago) and read 15857 times:

As this is currently very Americo-centric, thought I would balance the worldwide view. I have just finished my training in Europe, and now just starting my type rating for a very large LCC in Europe. I've been VERY lucky to actually get a job. Most people coming out of the aviation schools right now in the UK at least, are really struggling to find a job. As they will continue to do so for a while. There just isn't enough jobs out there for the cadets who are finishing. There are literally hundreds of employable cadets who just can't find a job. Out of my course, only 2 out of 17 cadets have managed to secure a job 6 months after completion. That's self funded, and to our American cousins, at a cost of roughly $140-150,000. You can just imagine what that means.

Most European carriers have actually slowed down their airplane deliveries by the looks of things, and other airlines crumbling, the market is starting to stagnate. In Europe, I would wait to start training until at least either of the two major low cost carriers make another plane order.



Jonny, commercial pilot & founder of Thedesignair
User currently offline76er From Netherlands, joined Mar 2007, 521 posts, RR: 1
Reply 21, posted (1 year 9 months 1 week 4 days 6 hours ago) and read 15860 times:

Quoting prizeframe (Thread starter):
Is there any number or estimation on if it there's a lot of unemployed pilots?

Dutch pilot union VNV-Dalpa just did some research on the jobless rate and found about 1000 recent graduates unemployed without any prospect of finding a job. That's in the Netherlands alone.

I'm kinda confused about where you're from. Your profile says Nice, but your name suggests otherwise. The job markets east and west of the pond are quite different, to put it mildly. Having worked on both sides, I should know.


User currently offlinelightsaber From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 13005 posts, RR: 100
Reply 22, posted (1 year 9 months 1 week 4 days 5 hours ago) and read 15856 times:
Support Airliners.net - become a First Class Member!

Quoting jonnyclark (Reply 20):
Out of my course, only 2 out of 17 cadets have managed to secure a job 6 months after completion. That's self funded, and to our American cousins, at a cost of roughly $140-150,000. You can just imagine what that means.

Ouch. I feel for your compatriots. That surplus pool is why I wonder how much of these articles are the schools trying to drum up interest.

Quoting 76er (Reply 21):
Dutch pilot union VNV-Dalpa just did some research on the jobless rate and found about 1000 recent graduates unemployed without any prospect of finding a job. That's in the Netherlands alone.

  



Quoting BostonMike (Reply 18):
Whether the cost of flight training today can be offset by a rewarding career over the next thirty years is a question best left to others.

And it won't be measured purely in dollars.

Lightsaber



Societies that achieve a critical mass of ideas achieve self sustaining growth; others stagnate.
User currently offlineaviateur From United States of America, joined Apr 2004, 1352 posts, RR: 11
Reply 23, posted (1 year 9 months 1 week 2 days 7 hours ago) and read 15687 times:

There is a glut of pilots, just as there always has been, and this glut will continue.

One exception MIGHT BE a drying up of the applicant pool at the regional level. For good reasons (low pay, hostile work environments, very little attrition and hiring at the majors, etc.). Thus this whole "pilot shortage" discussion needs to be re-phrased:

There will be no pilot shortage, per se. What there might be, however, is a shortage of pilots willing to work for very low wages, in poor work environments.

PS



Patrick Smith is an airline pilot, air travel columnist and author
User currently offlineplanemaker From Tuvalu, joined Aug 2003, 6146 posts, RR: 35
Reply 24, posted (1 year 9 months 1 week 2 days 6 hours ago) and read 15652 times:

Quoting Mir (Reply 19):
I think it will be decades before we ever see single-pilot airliners.

Not decades... we'll start to see SP's within 15 years. The next generation of RJ's will be SP's and A & B's next all-new NB's will also be SP's.



Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
25 XFSUgimpLB41X : Lots of know it alls with the single pilot thing... Even heavy trains aren't single manned and they just go forward and backward.
26 EA CO AS : Negative; it will be decades, if ever. Besides, any carrier flying with only one pilot will suddenly find themselves having a huge marketing disadvan
27 planemaker : Less than 4 years ago most people discussing this area on A.net also said that we would not EVER see a car that could drive in traffic autonomously..
28 xjramper : You all are confusing the difference between the technology being there vs public perception. Just because the technology and capability exists, does
29 tdscanuck : 1) We've had single pilot ops for decades. Whether it makes it into Part 121 service is a different question, but pretending we don't know how do sin
30 tdscanuck : The public already knowingly flies on single pilot aircraft in scheduled commercial service. The only thing we're quibbling about here is scale. Tom.
31 XFSUgimpLB41X : 121 airliners are a totally different ballgame than a citation or a premier. Sorry. There are no single pilot 121 airliners even on the drawing board
32 BMI727 : The biggest hurdles for single pilot operations on airliners will not be technological. Getting passengers, regulators, and pilot groups on board wil
33 xjramper : Where? Every single 50+ seater is driven by two pilots in commercial service. I will give you Cair. But that's a less than 9 pax aircraft.
34 Mir : Accident statistics say that SP ops are more dangerous, though. -Mir
35 tdscanuck : Exactly. I'm fully onboard with the idea that it will never fly (pun only partly intended) due to lack of market acceptance. But that's a completely
36 ATCtower : If I may offer another prospective from an enroute air traffic controller, while the flying public may generally be ok with single pilot operations,
37 Post contains images XFSUgimpLB41X : Those are very very small operations with very small airplanes with a very small amount of passengers into very small areas of the world with very hi
38 tdscanuck : I think you missed what my point is. I was responding to this: I didn't say it was safer, I didn't even say it was as safe (the record speaks for its
39 XFSUgimpLB41X : The "shortage" is primarily within the next 10-15 years. The technology will not be there at the airlines to do anything remotely as to what you asse
40 xjramper : Over 400,000 miles flown in the last two and a half years as a commercial passenger, never once have I stepped aboard any of those aircraft, nor have
41 planemaker : There may be a large % now but in ~15 years with an all-new RJ's design and ~25 years for all-new NB's the majority "mindset" will shift to accepting
42 saab2000 : Maybe one day, but not anytime soon. The airplanes on the market right now must be flown by two pilots. I have heard that Embraer was doing research
43 bahadir : There is no shortage of pilots. There are two things that need to happen : - There is no company providing flight training financing right now. (ATP I
44 Post contains images lightsaber : And the military is paying a fortune for UAV's in commercial airspace. That is the enabling technology. IMHO, as small cities are cut off in the curr
45 BostonMike : Several things are in flux now. The regional airline model is rapidly changing. In bankruptcy proceedings, Pinnacle is demanding their pilots accept
46 lightsaber : Which will be balanced by supply and demand. Not many pilots are going through training as the pay is poor. If pay improves, which it should be able
47 Post contains images Mir : The regionals are the LAST places that should see single-pilot ops. -Mir
48 Post contains images planemaker : Yes, a couple of years back Embraer was looking at the possibility of SP ops by as early as 2020 and was planning to provide SP capability in the 202
49 Mir : Shorter flights will still have higher workloads then longer flights. That's not going to change. -Mir
50 planemaker : Obviously as a % of flight time. So what is going to change is that both will have lower "respective" workloads.
51 DashTrash : They can petition all they want. The current flock of regional aircraft all require two pilots per the type certificates. Ain't gonna happen anytime
52 Post contains images lightsaber : All aircraft. I'm very excited where the next generation of ATC is going. But it will be the military paying for the initial certifications. We can a
53 tdscanuck : True. I suspect the first "chink in the armour" for passenger service will be the second crew on long-haul. The relatively low workload oceanic cruis
54 BostonMike : There has always been a reluctance for U.S. airlines to go this route. It has always made sense. But now we "may" be facing the 1500 hour minimum rul
55 tdscanuck : That is my suspicion as well. *If* the shortage results in improved wages and conditions, the number of available pilots will increase in a big hurry
56 norcal : I don't think you are because of the regulatory, public perception, and insurance hurdles associated with SP ops. I also believe there are technologi
57 tdscanuck : Just as in aviation, any sufficiently determined captain can crash his vessel regardless of what the engineers do. How come there are still so many f
58 norcal : The titanic was claimed to be "unsinkable," reminds me of arrogance often displayed by engineers with other projects. There are furloughed mainline p
59 saab2000 : One reason there are a fair number of furloughed pilots is that many refuse to go to the right seat of an RJ for peanut wages. My guess is that many C
60 Antoniemey : The connotation that the Titanic was believed "unsinkable" actually came about later. She WAS considered an engineering marvel and the safest ship af
61 norcal : I guess I must know different engineers than you do. Exactly, there are many pilots that have moved on to other places or left the industry entirely.
62 tdscanuck : The combination of these two statements means that, if true, the "shortage" is entirely of the regionals' own making and entirely within their power
63 Post contains links BostonMike : The following is from today's New York Times and discusses similar issues about the need for skilled manufacturing workers. http://www.nytimes.com/201
64 norcal : I've been saying that all along. They can't keep paying crap wages and expect people to show up. The regionals won't be able to continue as they are
65 DeltaRules : I have a friend at a regional who suffered an injury requiring surgery, which took him off line flying for a period. He was placed in training while h
66 Post contains links planemaker : As I mentioned, the military is paying the lion share now but commercial ops are chomping at the bit to start flying and 2015 can't come soon enough
67 2175301 : I agree with the general statements made by the designers as implying that the Titanic would not sink in any normal mishap - assuming that all standa
68 Semaex : Wow, people. I have never in my life seen so many times the phrase "Single Pilot Operation". Neither did I expect the subject of the Titanic to drop i
69 prizeframe : Thanks for all the posts, there's a lot of valuable stuff here that I love reading. I have to agree with Semaex, and also feel that the train went of
70 Post contains images lightsaber : But we will develop the technology. It is somewhat about local job market, but the reality is that pilot slots are now a global market excluding dome
71 SQ325 : I sometimes struggle to get myself home in one piece after one of these "low workload oceanic cruise segments" As long as we still need bus and train
72 Post contains images planemaker : The industry is still in flux... just look at how so many on here laughed at Emirates for their pretentious ambitions a few years ago... not to menti
73 tdscanuck : True, but that's mostly because it's a freakin' long day...why have two people exhausted when you could have just one? Put another way...are you dog
74 Mir : Or are you dog tired because you weren't working that hard over that segment? Staring at screens waiting for something to go wrong can get pretty tir
75 Post contains links and images planemaker : I mentioned earlier in response to BostonMike's comment about Moore's Law how now every pax potentially has a back-up PFD... WingX now has the Pro7 on
76 Semaex : I know what you mean and I also think that there is a global impact whatever region of the world comes up with whatever legislation on the matter. Ho
77 silentbob : I don't believe that regional flying is easier. Having done it for years, I know better. I simply believe that it will happen first at a regional air
78 lightsaber : Agreed. But I know us pilots in Dubai, Tokyo, and a few other locations. I met (barely know) a few European pilots in the mid-east and India. If the
79 planemaker :
80 aviateur : flight instructing 135 charter operations air taxi banner towing ad-hoc whatever hitching rides begging bribing No offense, but you build it the way(
81 Post contains images planemaker : They might want to go to UND. From the article I linked to...
82 XFSUgimpLB41X : THANK YOU!!! However, the return on investment is lower now.... Considering inflation, major airline pilots make a fraction of what they used to even
83 Semaex : "Welcome to the US" is the only thing I can comment on that. The matter of the fact is that I could start with 200 hours as a Ready Entry with a lot
84 PassedV1 : Which is exactly why I don't fly most non-US carriers...I don't care what the inflight meals look like.
85 saab2000 : There are simply not enough jobs like this out there to allow thousands of pilots to build the 1500 hours needed for an ATP when the retirement numbe
86 Semaex : Which is a simply naive point of view. Think about that it takes an AB first officer around 8-12 years to become captain. And guess what: every fligh
87 Post contains images norcal : None of that stuff is certified for 121. It's been several years since the iPad came out and most carriers still don't have it approved to replace pa
88 Post contains images HAL : Wow, all it takes is for planemaker to drop in yet another post about 'single-pilot' operations and we're off to the races! Are you freakin' kidding??
89 norcal : For regionals that shortage is already here. American Eagle and Republic are both offering $5,000 signing bonuses to attract people but they aren't f
90 BostonMike : We may have gotten off the track a bit. Which forum doesn't? And, admittedly, the posters from the US don't know much about European pilot training a
91 norcal : It's not the technology that makes up for the experience gap, sure it helps a little, but it is the seasoned captains that are holding the hands of t
92 Mir : I wouldn't either. But would you fly on them if they had two pilots in the cockpit during takeoff and landing and one in cruise (with the other resti
93 DeltaRules : I have a friend from a recently departed regional who saw the writing on the wall and put his resume in elsewhere. He'd been offered a spot with Repub
94 HAL : No, I wouldn't. I fly long-haul, and despite Tdscanuck's preference, there are always times that two heads are better than one, even in mid-cruise. W
95 tdscanuck : No. Which part of *second crew* was unclear? I am certainly not advocating reducing crew at the highest workload portion of flight, that's ridiculous
96 Post contains images planemaker : No one is suggesting using current RJ's for SP pax ops... but when we have an all-new RJ design (and on an all-new NB design). At that point a co-pil
97 delta2ual : That's true, but it hasn't affected our staffing: we still have the surgeon, anesthesia provider, circulating nurse, and even the scrub nurse (who, i
98 jfklganyc : That is way too optimistic a time schedule. It has taken decades and several fatigue related accidents just to get simple rest rules in place. And ev
99 tdscanuck : Agreed. Technology isn't really the issue, it's regulations and public perception that will be the time limiter, but whatever shortage is coming is g
100 norcal : There is really no set number amount since all individuals are different. Some learn faster then others, some can't learn at all. One of the most imp
101 n6238p : I want to meet the instructor that flies 50 hours in a week and ask them how much they flew the week after. I was a former part time instructor for a
102 Post contains images planemaker : What major technology breakthrough????? That is why it is called single pilot. Why would anyone use a cell phone as a PFD? No one is saying that we'l
103 brilondon : Most pilot jobs suck. The hours are not great, seniority lists that would have you only flying sporadically, continually having the chance to have you
104 tdscanuck : But against all those problems is the fact that you're flying! That makes up for a huge amount of "suck", at least for many many people. This is why
105 brilondon : And that is why a lot of pilots have another job and don't do it as their primary vocation. It is more of a hobby for them. I travel with a pilot for
106 aviateur : This applies to a VERY SMALL number of pilots overall. PS
107 Post contains images mandala499 : Try and tell that to the airlines where I am Deliveries are being deferred because of... lack of pilots. Foreign pilots being looked at, a lot of the
108 vio : Everyone here is talking about hours here as if that's the only important factor. I have seen guys with 1500 hrs in the right seat who should not be t
109 Post contains images Mir : But what if you're getting vectors the whole way? -Mir
110 Post contains images mandala499 : It wasn't... and then got SPDSEL/VS on Managed lateral... on an RNAV... with no traffic... Well, just some are... well, dunno how they made the cut..
111 aviateur : This is true. Hours alone are not necessarily a good indicator of skills or performance. HOWEVER, you have to draw the line somewhere. And, I'm sorry
112 tdscanuck : That really depends on what they were doing outside the 300 hours of loggable time. This is one of the issues with using hours as the primary metric.
113 HAL : That is completely incorrect. Most pilot jobs are intense, sometimes stressful, and very rewarding. Unless you are the type of person who would compl
114 tdscanuck : If that was how the real world worked, we'd still have flight engineers. I don't think anybody advocates reduced crewing, for any phase of flight, if
115 HAL : I don't buy the argument about Flight Engineers. They performed a function, yes, but that function has been automated. Their job wasn't nearly as muc
116 Post contains images planemaker : Most??? An emergency ER doctor has an intense job. And that schedule depending on airline, seniority and schedule... typically works out to 10 to 20
117 HAL : Why? Because I live in the real world. After watching billions spent trying to get the Next-Gen air traffic control system up and running with little
118 brilondon : As are a lot of jobs. You are right, as I am basing my information on what I have been told by my partner's neighbour, and what a friend of mine expe
119 planemaker : Attempting to equate the behind schedule replacement of our Cold War era ATC by government bureaucracy/political wrangling (e.g. Congressional Reps.
120 PH-BFA : Ah planemaker and his obsession of SP operated aircraft... "not any time in the next several decades". In 25 years the 737max and a320neo will still,
121 aviateur : When it comes to flying, the TV and press have no bloody idea what the #^&*$ they are talking about. HAL is correct. This is not going to happen.
122 aviateur : Thank you HAL. PS
123 aviateur : brilondon: I'm sorry, but this post of yours is ridiculous and ought to be deleted. You have no idea what you are talking about. - Patrick Smith
124 Mir : I'm wondering what tasks you think the second pilot does that would be able to be automated away. Something other than a blanket "everything", be spe
125 2175301 : I would disagree in part. I am not a pilot and do not work for any airline. But, I do know pilots. Of the ones I know they break into 3 main categori
126 planemaker : Being informed about the geometric progression of information technology is simply being aware of what is happening around us. If you do not see the
127 HAL : Which means you have not experienced the industry like someone who is in the industry, and knows hundreds of pilots. Again, quite simply wrong. Major
128 HAL : planemaker, again with all due respect, you quote Moore's Law like it's carved in stone, or is an immutable truth like the laws of physics. It is not
129 Antoniemey : I'm pretty sure most people knew that a self-driving car would be possible... but it has yet to prove itself both viable and practical. Time will tel
130 zeke : Just a minor correction, the requirement will be to hold an ATP, not 1500 hrs. I think you will see a number of schools in the US being able to issue
131 Mir : Well then you're mistaken. A computer cannot perceive a cockpit dynamic (i.e. the current workload and priorities of the PF) and adjust the way it co
132 PH-BFA : Ah yes the autonomous cars.... Ever seen one driving on a public road? Makes you wonder why not...
133 planemaker : For the purpose of this discussion it is. Again, for the purpose of this discussion it doesn't need to. We'll have AGI as early as 2030 by some estim
134 PH-BFA : Exactly my point... still it is not viable to produce and operate them (and will not be for 40+ years at the very least), although technology is ther
135 tdscanuck : Single pilot is a lovely topic to discuss, but can we start a new thread on it (or revive the old one), rather than clogging this one up? Whether sing
136 silentbob : Without changing the existing regulations, single pilot operations is going to be the only other way airlines will be able to fill all of the expecte
137 planemaker : The DARPA Urban Challenge was only a few years ago but already the automakers have adopted some autonomous technology in their vehicles. Several say
138 PassedV1 : This is the same government, that is going to have to approve this SP operation. This is the same FAA that is taking over 2 years now to approve a US
139 XFSUgimpLB41X : Ah, engineers going back and forth about automating pilots out of the plane. Single pilot, while doubtful, maybe find its way into part 121 (but under
140 planemaker : Yes, the FAA can move very slowly but we are talking about 15 years out on SP and there will be a large body of evidence on key factors over the next
141 ual777 : I don't see it. There are way too many factors to make this a reality for airliners. This flies in the face of just about every CRM cornerstone there
142 planemaker : It is because you are looking at it from your existing paradigm and not ~15 years hence. Even today look at the cockpit/avionics/technology differenc
143 XFSUgimpLB41X : A better comparison in the correct time frame would be the 777 and the 787. Those are 20 years apart in release. A CRJ 200 is actually 7-10 years pri
144 tdscanuck : Anyone who's flown an IAN approach would seriously contest that assertion. An interim step, probably, will be to segregate the crew capabilities. Ful
145 XFSUgimpLB41X : The 777 has IAN capability... so does the A320 (late 80s tech). Granted, those are software updates, but it is through the same tech as 20 years ago.
146 ual777 : Its not an issue of technology, its an issue of the environment. The airports are too busy, the hours are too long, and the aircraft too complex to g
147 Post contains images planemaker : It isn't a better comparison because IT progresses geometrically not linearly. The architecture and capabilities are very, very different. (BTW, a bi
148 Post contains images warden145 : Forgive me for interrupting the single-pilot debate (regardless of the technological improvements, I abhor the idea of only having one human brain on
149 tdscanuck : I reiterate my request to get the single pilot discussion onto another thread if we want to go into the technical details. The simple explanation to
150 BMI727 : The answer is that it isn't a rational decision. They love to fly, enough to put up with all the crap that being a professional pilot requires. Shiny
151 Post contains images XFSUgimpLB41X : You guys are right, the latest most advanced aircraft... at the cutting edge of technology... are supremely reliable and capable of handling any probl
152 2175301 : 2 underpaid pilots: Likely not true. I understand that United Pilots are paid very well. Also I understand that these would have been senior pilots a
153 XFSUgimpLB41X : That was more of a facetious statement than anything- a round about way of saying that they very much earned their paycheck in a situation with compo
154 tdscanuck : I think you're mixing compound failure (which aren't supposed to happen) with simultaneous failures (which are designed for). So far, I haven't seen
155 PassedV1 : United pilots are not "well paid", unless you are compairing them to real-estate agents and nurses. Not a slam on those two, but pilots used to be com
156 HAL : That is the whole point of why people have a hard time understanding why I think single-pilot won't happen any time soon. Sure, on most of my flights
157 planemaker : Yes... "now"... not in ~15 years. All commercial jets are designed for "two human brains" because human brains need back up because human brains are
158 XFSUgimpLB41X : Welp, passedV1 nailed it. I'll give you another example, planemaker: There are still a few active NDBs in the country. They were slated to be phased o
159 silentbob : When Congressmen start pushing them or pass a law requiring them to do something, they do it. Cost doesn't matter if you can't find someone qualified
160 XFSUgimpLB41X : There is wayyy more that goes on that is undocumented. ASAP is a fantastic program, though... and it proves how critical it is to have two minds up t
161 Mir : They're going to have to. Either that, or deal with the consequences of not being able to have as much regional feed as they used to. -Mir
162 HAL : silentbob, XFSUgimpLB41X is right. What we're talking about with the whole safety issue are not events that would require an ASAP filing, but rather
163 planemaker : On late model cargo aircraft the actual cost would be relatively inexpensive since it would be mostly software upgrade on FAA approved avionics. What
164 Post contains images HAL : And that entire rant clearly demonstrates that you have limited understanding about what pilots actually can do, as well as an vastly overrated sense
165 PH-BFA : Because it is not, it is probably one of the lowest priorities airlines currently have. If its about cost; airlines will find a way around it (low sa
166 tdscanuck : Despite they many repeated attempts to drag the thread off course, the entire point of the thread is about pilot shortage. Either the shortage doesn'
167 Post contains images XFSUgimpLB41X : It's been widely agreed upon that the implementation of reduced crewing is at least 15 years away... yet the shortage is supposed to start in a coupl
168 Post contains images VS11 : Soooo...now we start researching and picking up flight schools ....well, I almost am...I am sold
169 tdscanuck : No idea. That's why I said this about a week ago: Tom.
170 planemaker : They won't duplicate the "safety ability" of two pilots landing on a taxiway... to give one of many examples of the "safety ability of a human brain"
171 Post contains images XFSUgimpLB41X : Yep... The biggest thing coming is going to be reducing the size of the overbloated regionals and a shift back to mainline. Then they can duplicate t
172 Post contains images planemaker : The Google "robot" cars have driven over 300,000 miles autonomously without an accident... but the one fender bender one had was when a "human brain"
173 HAL : That accident rate will go up once the Google cars start working their way through freeway traffic, rush-hour stop & go traffic, rainy weather, s
174 Post contains images XFSUgimpLB41X : Because cars are so similar to airplanes, right? Nope! Large transport freight trains aren't even autonomous. An airplane (as you should know) is an
175 Post contains images planemaker : Unfortunately, your statement illustrates how little you know about this subject (just as your 172 hypothetical also does). It well known that Google
176 PH-BFA : ' In fact, civilian UAV's will start to take away pilot jobs in a couple of years. ' Yes indeed, just like we would definitely have a personal flying
177 Post contains images lightsaber : In addition to the autonomous operation, I advocate a 2nd pilot on the ground. What is ALREADY KNOWN is that the developing UAVs sans a test pilot is
178 planemaker : The facts are that you do have a very limited understanding of technology and its advancement.. your replies are proof to that. The FAA has a statuto
179 Post contains images PH-BFA : 'The facts are that you do have a very limited understanding of technology and its advancement.. your replies are proof to that.' As do you regarding
180 planemaker : The "economic viability" is exceedingly obvious... in fact, is should have been far easier for you to comprehend than IT because it is just basic mat
181 Mir : From a controversy standpoint perhaps. But from an operational standpoint, those planes fly the routes that have the most workload, and thus are leas
182 tdscanuck : There are two sides to that coin...one is that you're sometimes better off tackling the hardest challenge first. I think we can all admit that if (IF
183 PH-BFA : 'Your post has absolutely no relevance since I have posted many times that SP will not be on legacy pax aircraft but will begin with all-new RJs in ~1
184 tdscanuck : The recent bankrupcies of several legacy carriers in the US can be traced directly to overly generous labour packages...not just to pilots, but pilot
185 PH-BFA : 'It's a *huge* problem in the real world.' Unfortunately, bankruptcies have more to do with incompetent management, than with labour costs. There are
186 Post contains images warden145 : I didn't want to get involved in this debate, but here's a question for those who advocate single-pilot ops. As I've always understood it, from a care
187 futureualpilot : To me having two crew up front is entirely safety. One pilot makes sense to a bean counter who has never operated an airplane in a busy or stressful e
188 Post contains images warden145 : THANK YOU...couldn't have worded it better myself, even though I tried. I hate to say this, but part of me wonders if airline safety has gotten so go
189 pvjin : As long as airliners can't safely fly their whole route and land automatically without pilot doing something at some point there won't be commercial a
190 tdscanuck : I'm going to make a plea, again, for this thread to get back on target. Whatever you think about SP ops, any pending pilot shortage will occur before
191 Post contains links and images lightsaber : The issue of aircraft is cooling (as the computers must work with a loss of cabin pressure). So I'm more excited about the multi-core tablet processo
192 warden145 : My apologies for letting emotion overcome my better judgement and participating in that off-shoot; I'll keep my trap shut from here on out.
193 tdscanuck : Anyone out there know the financials of the regionals in depth? I'm trying to figure out, IF the notional pilot shortage occurs, what possible way the
194 PassedV1 : I think just about everyone on here would agree that AT SOME POINT in the future, we will see commercial airliners in a normal (non-experimental) SP o
195 ual777 : Ive instructed in Redbirds sims and they are good for instrument training and VFR cross-country "dead reckoning" training only. Outside of that they
196 planemaker : I will answer your plea. However... ... so I will resist and won't add anything new about SP on this thread.
197 Post contains images XFSUgimpLB41X : Hey.... don't tell planemaker he's wrong. He has engineering and stuff. He thinks everything we can do can be seen on the screens. Maybe in 40-50 year
198 futureualpilot : Clearly you've never flown an airline trip with the way schedules are now. The turn times are limited by aircraft servicing, not flight crews. You ca
199 Post contains images lightsaber : As you point out, it is the fuel. They will only come back if the cockpit is smaller/lighter (single pilot) and a few other technology additions. Per
200 futureualpilot : I disagree. A "pilot" focused on several flights cannot possibly maintain the same SA as a pilot operating a flight where their butt is in the seat.
201 silentbob : I think the topics are so inextricably linked that much of the discussions would be repeated in both topics. While it may not be a "pure" discussion,
202 planemaker : The reason for his plea makes sense... SP ops don't apply to the "imminent" pilot shortage (which is what this thread is about) since SP ops are stil
203 warden145 : As long as the senior captains have a good attitude about it and are willing/wanting to act as mentors/teachers to the rookies, IMHO that is an excel
204 XFSUgimpLB41X : FedEx is still running 3 pilot operations. Try 20 years away at the earliest.
205 Mir : That may be, but I've never heard of a new technology in aviation that wasn't introduced in low-risk environments for a trial period before being exp
206 norcal : This is already happening at the regional level by default. Most of the Captains now flying at most regionals have a lot of experience, many have yea
207 tdscanuck : I wholeheartedly disagree...although the SP discussion is very interesting, there is no credible timeframe for SP that will cover up the potentially
208 planemaker : I agree that this isn't the thread to discuss SP ops on. It isn't a matter of ignoring. The only point that is open to genuine discussion is how soon
209 lightsaber : The ground pilot will focus on one flight at a time with the superior situational awareness being plugged into the FAA radar network, GPS, and all th
210 Mir : You're going to have to have two seats. At some point, a pilot is going to be flying a jet for the first time. You want a second person there for tha
211 Post contains links planemaker : Dec 13th article: The Unstable Training Environment and The Coming Pilot Shortage, written by Executive Director, National Association of Flight Instr
212 aviateur : I'm really sorry, Planemaker, but you don't know what you're talking about. You clearly have little idea of what actually goes on in a commercial air
213 Post contains links planemaker : Several online pubs have reported recently, and now Aviation Week, about a "blue-chip" group of industry players (reportedly representing a Who's Who
214 Post contains links and images lightsaber : If the Northrop flying wing gets built, it would be ready. Recall how heavy Northrop is into UAVs. Future transports are going to be built with UAV c
215 Post contains links and images planemaker : I've always been a fan of MIT's D series and how they have an aluminum (lower risk, near-term alternative with 50% less fuel burn than 738) or CFRP v
216 76er : To get back on topic: Dutch business news radio station BNR is reporting this morning that the only bank in the country still providing loans for flig
217 PH-BFA : First of all there are 2 banks providing loans for flight training. Secondly they are only stopping the so called 'living' part of the loans; which i
218 Post contains links 76er : I'm not making this up, here's the audio (in dutch): http://www.bnr.nl/?service=player&ty...archief&fragment=20121221070300360
219 lightsaber : The concept has merit. I see it being built with unducted fans. Note: Where the engines are will have a poor inlet profile for the engines, in partic
220 aviateur : For as long as there are pilots willing to work for fast-food wages, there will NOT be a pilot shortage. In other words, there will not be a pilot sho
221 Post contains images planemaker : Hey... Pratt was part of the team so you may ask them why they put the engines there. Starting on page 56 they discuss the design features, such as 4
222 jfklganyc : Sir, you clearly have a problem with young pilots from good schools getting in too young. I have encountered this several times in my career, either
223 Post contains links lightsaber : Which part of Pratt? There are airframe advantages. As someone out of flight test who has also done initial design, that is a concept that is begging
224 Post contains images planemaker : Many thanks for the link. I noticed that that article was posted just over 3 years ago. Remember, that the CFRP version of the D-series is 70% more f
225 Post contains links and images wilco737 : Part 2 now available here: Is The Pilot Job Market Going To Boom? Part 2 (by wilco737 Dec 24 2012 in Civil Aviation) Enjoy. wilco737
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