flybehubby From United Kingdom, joined Oct 2008, 177 posts, RR: 0 Posted (6 months 1 day 12 hours ago) and read 823 times:
EZY are due to announce their 2012 year end results tomorrow and are expected to have made record profits. In anticipation of this what do we think their results will show, any news on a new aircraft order and what is next for the airline.
My expectations : Results - Expectation of lower costs per seat ex fuel, higher avg seat prices and lower ancillary revenues, passengers up maybe 7%, similar load factors as previous years (mid 80's is it?)
New aircraft order : Quite quickly after the results (to ride on the good news) I expect an announcement on a new aircraft order. Possibly before the end of the year? More airbus A320s (possibly pick up the VX cancelled delivery slots) to replace older A319s and bridge the gap until A320neo / B737max. This could also deliver capacity expansion without increasing number of aircraft, crew etc. How about larger gauge aircraft A321, B737-900? Possibly even A330 for LGW routes (Moscow etc)? Im unsure on which way the neo/max decision could go but again expect this before 2013. Im sure it's Airbus' order to loose but Boeing must still be pretty interested in having a large (and profitable) airline on it's order books.
What next : a "business" type onboard service - already flexi fares get a choice of seats, bags etc. Maybe a free drink , sandwich and newspaper? EZY always say no "bundling" but flexi already has an element.
A frequent flyer scheme - possibly expanding the nectar agreement and allow passengers to collect nectar points.
Expanded (in house) holidays division to take on Jet2 and exploit weaknesses in legacy tour operators.
Longer range flying - I think i'm correct in saying that all EZY destinations are capable of the crew returning to their home base on one duty but the airline isn't adverse to night stopping crew? Would the airline maybe reach out to key destinations (within the range of A320) but require crew nightstop? I'm guessing Atlantic flying is a no go with the lack of ETOPs (and I doubt EZY would consider ETOPS for a limited number of destinations) but maybe DXB and other destinations within the middle east.
Livery - EZY has dropped ".com" from it's new special schemes and recent advertising. Is this a sign of things to come? It'd also save cost on paint and a couple of grams of weight off the aircraft.
With the "lack" of aircraft on order, is EZY (and FR to some degree) limiting itself to any potential opportunities that may come up - closure/restructuring of SAS, IB etc.
PlymSpotter From Spain, joined Jun 2004, 11113 posts, RR: 63 Reply 1, posted (6 months 1 day 11 hours ago) and read 830 times:
My thoughts on the fleet is that easyJet will go with the CS100/300 and A320/321NEO.
The C100 is less of a contender than the CS300, but I can see it being able to allow easyJet to enter more smaller markets with a lower cost base than current CRJ/ERJ/Prop operators. It will also be available in greater numbers sooner. At the other end of the spectrum the A321NEO may be too big for now, but I believe it will ultimately have a place in eastJet's fleet.
timboflier215 From United Kingdom, joined May 2005, 1238 posts, RR: 1 Reply 3, posted (6 months 1 day 5 hours ago) and read 830 times:
Quoting flybehubby (Thread starter): With the "lack" of aircraft on order, is EZY (and FR to some degree) limiting itself to any potential opportunities that may come up - closure/restructuring of SAS, IB etc.
I was thinking exactly this the other day. With such vast numbers of neo's and MAX's already ordered, U2 and FR really have left it late to start rolling over their fleets/ react to any changing situation with new routes.
My guess is any neo/MAX order will come with a healthy top up of current generation a/c to see them through the transition.
Re: the A321, they did receive some from BMED (admittedly with the 'wrong' engines), and got rid of them pretty sharp-ish. Not saying they won't, as times/economics and strategies have changed in the intervening years since that purchase, but I'd have thought they would have ordered them already if they wanted them, having had a relatively decent amount of experience with the type.
EagleBoy From Niue, joined Dec 2009, 1612 posts, RR: 2 Reply 4, posted (6 months 1 day 4 hours ago) and read 830 times:
Keep in mind that a large portion of the NEO/MAX orders are from leasing companies directly. (380/1554 and 185/960 respectively)So while delivery slots may be chock full for a few years the 'ownership'/operation of these aircraft are possibly still availiable.
flybehubby From United Kingdom, joined Oct 2008, 177 posts, RR: 0 Reply 5, posted (6 months 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 830 times:
Quoting PlymSpotter (Reply 1): My thoughts on the fleet is that easyJet will go with the CS100/300 and A320/321NEO.
I really can't see EZY ordering anything other than B737 or A320 series a/c. For a start, the support network throughout Europe would be severely restricted for the C series. Imagine going tech in, for example, Malaga - currently there are a number of B737 and A320 operators with engineers stationed who could fix common problems.
Quoting timboflier215 (Reply 3): Re: the A321, they did receive some from BMED (admittedly with the 'wrong' engines), and got rid of them pretty sharp-ish.
It was actually GB Airways (BMED went to bmi) - the A321 I think proved a little too large 156 seats to 214 (eventually) at the time. They also had the "wrong" cabin, BA style equipment and require and extra crew member. Also, as you've said, they had the wrong engines. EZY went through a huge change with the GB takeover and I think the complication of the A321 could have posed too much of a challenge at the time. There was also less of them 6 x A321 vs 9 x A320 in the GB fleet.
Quoting EagleBoy (Reply 4): So while delivery slots may be chock full for a few years the 'ownership'/operation of these aircraft are possibly still availiable.
True but remember EZY have a 70/30 ownership / lease preference with regard to aircraft.
PlymSpotter From Spain, joined Jun 2004, 11113 posts, RR: 63 Reply 6, posted (6 months 1 day ago) and read 830 times:
Quoting flybehubby (Reply 5): For a start, the support network throughout Europe would be severely restricted for the C series
No, it will be integrated with the overall Bombardier customer service network. If the support network was as limited as you suggest, why would other carriers like Swiss have signed up for 30 C Series which will fly to places like Malaga, and why would carriers like easyJet and Vueling be studying it closely?
Quoting flybehubby (Reply 5): Imagine going tech in, for example, Malaga - currently there are a number of B737 and A320 operators with engineers stationed who could fix common problems.
Having engineers there and having an agreement with their company to perform work are two different things. So long as you have the relevant contracts in place with the correct licenses (Malaga for instance already sees a large number of Bombardier (CRJ) movements) then going tech in a C Series is no more of an issue than going tech in an A319.
On computer/paper the CS300 is a far superior aircraft to the A319NEO, which is likely to become the next A318 in terms of economics. So unless easyJet plan on going all A320 or above for new purchases, a split fleet is very likely to make more sense.
The issue was also that they had different engine types from their existing fleet making It more expensive from maintenance point of view.
EZY starting DXB or AUH would be fantastic. Emirates already have 3 daily 777 flights from LGW but if EZY are able to price it right, I think it could work from LGW. Does anybody know how their Amman and Tel Aviv flights are performing?
danfearn77 From United Kingdom, joined Jul 2008, 1780 posts, RR: 9 Reply 8, posted (6 months 19 hours ago) and read 828 times:
I was looking at Amman flights and I think, although i may be wrong, but they dropped 1 frequency per week? (3 down to 2 if I'm correct) Maybe that points to lighter loads. I know the flight I wanted to book on stayed at a very cheap price for a long long time. Almost 6 months between me first checking it and finally deciding I wasn't going and the price hadnt budged. I'd like to see a 2 weekly MAN-AMM I think it could work.
Eagles may soar high, but weasels dont get sucked into jet engines!
I doubt they could make it there let alone back which always takes around 7 and a half hours. Then again, Air Blue used A319 from Pakistan to Manchester if I remember correctly? If they got themselves an A330 then I think I could work
??? EZY is a very well-run and for-profit business. They have, on the whole, been developing very nicely. Why would they then start operating 330s long-haul, especially on already heavily competitive routes?!
"Everyone writing for the Telegraph knows that the way to grab eyeballs is with Ryanair and/or sex."
TC957 From UK - England, joined May 2012, 334 posts, RR: 0 Reply 18, posted (6 months 15 hours ago) and read 830 times:
I personally don't see EZY getting wide-bodies in the medium term at least. If they have eyes on the UAE then best to wait for the 320/321NEO. For one thing, aircraft like the A333 can't be turned around regularly in the 25-40 minute times the LCC's require. And has been demonstrated so often, lo-cost and long-haul are a very risky mix.
kaitak From Ireland, joined Aug 1999, 11950 posts, RR: 37 Reply 23, posted (6 months 14 hours ago) and read 828 times:
I think quite a few low cost operators, such as Air Arabia, Air Asia and Easyjet, are looking closely at the CS300; Bombardier have a lot of talking to do, but if the aircraft is considerably lighter than the A319 and better still, if there's any stretching potential left, it could be a big success. The A319, as fine an acft as it certainly is, a shortened aircraft, while the CS300 is not; it would have roughly the same, if not slightly more capacity, than the 319s it would replace, but if the CASMs are considerably less, it could pose a serious threat to FR. U2 can also benefit from the fact that Bombardier will be desperate to get a European launch customer on board.
Looking down the road, I see Flybe being particularly vulnerable. Its 88 seat E-175s are going to find it very hard to compete against U2's A319s, let alone something with better costs. The Q400s are obviously cheaper to operate, but not terribly popular (for example, can't take normal size carry-ons in the bins). I think there's a lot of UK domestic routes where BE could be vulnerable to U2 and I can't help wondering if it might be a suitable takeover target.
PlymSpotter From Spain, joined Jun 2004, 11113 posts, RR: 63 Reply 24, posted (6 months 13 hours ago) and read 829 times:
Quoting kaitak (Reply 23): Bombardier have a lot of talking to do, but if the aircraft is considerably lighter than the A319 and better still, if there's any stretching potential left,
At least 25-30% lighter than an A319NEO. I think the CS500 can be expected as well, I should think Bombardier would like to get the CS100 in the air and rolling out the door first, but if it can help get major orders then I'm sure it's being offered now.
Quoting kaitak (Reply 23): U2 can also benefit from the fact that Bombardier will be desperate to get a European launch customer on board.
Lufthansa (for Swiss) already are.
Quoting kaitak (Reply 23): Looking down the road, I see Flybe being particularly vulnerable. Its 88 seat E-175s are going to find it very hard to compete against U2's A319s, let alone something with better costs. The Q400s are obviously cheaper to operate, but not terribly popular (for example, can't take normal size carry-ons in the bins). I think there's a lot of UK domestic routes where BE could be vulnerable to U2 and I can't help wondering if it might be a suitable takeover target.
There is a lot of concern about BE's business model not being sustainable even in the short term, certainly competing with easyJet at present is often a fruitless option. Their ERJ 175/195s are great aircraft right now which stand up well even to the 737/320 family, but they are about to become obsolete, to the same extent that they made the 146/RJ obsolete a few years ago.
In under five years time the NEO, MAX, C Series and ERJ-NG will be setting new standards in the skies, and what can FlyBe do about it? Nothing, IMO; their hands are tied by their current situation and poor past decisions. Yes they'll have a relatively new fleet, but they are operating in one of the most competitive markets and when it becomes last generation its value will drop significantly and badly expose them - this may even happen before they've finished receiving their ERJ-175s.
25 kaitak: Sorry, I should have said "low cost carrier"! Sad, but doesn't surprise me; with the departure of WW from a number of routes (such as JER-MAN and JER
26 f4f3a: I think it will be a vs b I'm not sure the c series is big enough and unproven. If they can have a split fleet then it may be considered . They still
27 PlymSpotter: Major LCC yes, they have already seen an order from airBaltic. This is one of BE's strategies; shrink domestic capacity forcing yields up and increas