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Garuda Considers 748 Or A380  
User currently offlineLAXintl From United States of America, joined May 2000, 24796 posts, RR: 46
Posted (1 year 8 months 4 days 16 hours ago) and read 8952 times:

A bit bizarre since the airline says it cannot keep its 744s busy enough, but GA is apparently launching an evaluation of the 748 and A380.

The high-capacity large widebody is seen as being valuable for operations to Saudi Arabia over the 3-month Hajj period, but carrier needs to determine how it can integrate such large capacity into scheduled service the remainder of the year.


Story:
Hajj Demand Prompts Garuda To Consider New Widebodies
http://www.aviationweek.com/Article....l/avd_11_09_2012_p05-01-514956.xml

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From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
34 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlinekaitak From Ireland, joined Aug 1999, 12407 posts, RR: 37
Reply 1, posted (1 year 8 months 4 days 16 hours ago) and read 8954 times:

Sounds a bit odd; didn't they also cancel their orders for 77Ws?

Can they not continue to just lease capacity from other carriers during the Hajj?

They seem to have really got their act together in the last few years, so it would be a shame to spoil it with unnecessary expenditure.


User currently offlinePlymSpotter From Spain, joined Jun 2004, 11611 posts, RR: 60
Reply 2, posted (1 year 8 months 4 days 16 hours ago) and read 8956 times:

Makes sense. Even with another runway CGK is going to be seriously capacity restricted in the future and at the rate air travel/tourism is growing a full A333 will equate to a full VLA in a decade.

Quoting kaitak (Reply 1):
Sounds a bit odd; didn't they also cancel their orders for 77Ws?

Delivered from next year I thought.


Dan  



...love is just a camouflage for what resembles rage again...
User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 30537 posts, RR: 84
Reply 3, posted (1 year 8 months 4 days 15 hours ago) and read 8957 times:
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Quoting LAXintl (Thread starter):
A bit bizarre since the airline says it cannot keep its 744s busy enough, but GA is apparently launching an evaluation of the 748 and A380.

Airbus has been talking up the A380-800 to Garuda for hajj missions, but they didn't mention what the plane would do the rest of the year.  
Quoting kaitak (Reply 1):
Sounds a bit odd; didn't they also cancel their orders for 77Ws?

All 10 still show on Boeing's Orders page and as of 01 November 2012 they are currently working out a sale-and-leaseback deal on 9 of the 10. And on 12 November Garuda president director Emirsyah Satar stated they would take delivery of 4 in 2013.

He also noted the 777-300ERs would replace their 747-400 fleet on hajj missions and new international routes. So perhaps a partial order conversion from the 777-300ER to the 747-8?



Quoting kaitak (Reply 1):
They seem to have really got their act together in the last few years, so it would be a shame to spoil it with unnecessary expenditure.

They intend to spend USD $2.2 billion next year to take delivery of 24 airplanes - four Boeing 777-300 ERs, two Airbus 330-200s, 10 Boeing 737-800 NGs, seven Bombardier CRJ1000s and an Airbus 330-300.


User currently offlinekaitak From Ireland, joined Aug 1999, 12407 posts, RR: 37
Reply 4, posted (1 year 8 months 4 days 15 hours ago) and read 8955 times:

Quoting Stitch (Reply 3):
They intend to spend USD $2.2 billion next year to take delivery of 24 airplanes - four Boeing 777-300 ERs, two Airbus 330-200s, 10 Boeing 737-800 NGs, seven Bombardier CRJ1000s and an Airbus 330-300.

Thanks for that; must have been the 787s they cancelled - couldn't remember!


User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 30537 posts, RR: 84
Reply 5, posted (1 year 8 months 4 days 15 hours ago) and read 8956 times:
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Quoting kaitak (Reply 4):
Thanks for that; must have been the 787s they cancelled - couldn't remember!

Not sure they ever firmed that order, to be honest. There is a report of them ordering 10 in 2005, but no note of them subsequently canceling them.


User currently offlinemigair54 From Spain, joined Jun 2007, 1650 posts, RR: 0
Reply 6, posted (1 year 8 months 4 days 15 hours ago) and read 8955 times:

Buying a few VLA to use only during hajj is a very good way to go under, specially with so many low cost pushing very hard to get any single market in the region. I think the A380 is a lil bit too much but the B748 could fit in the network given that they operate B744, however B77W is the best option, a few in a high density config like AF does with the CIO could be use all the year round and also for the hajj with 430 pax. they can reduce operation cost of a B744 by far and they can carry almost the same load passenger wise in few different configurations.

So IMO more B77W make a lot of more sense than a new type.

Where do they deploy the B747 right now?? DXB, HKG, Australia??



A bit off topic but also related to Garuda.
I heard that they are planning a big regional expansion with Citilink by Garuda and they are likely to place a very big order for ATR´s most probably. Any news about that??


User currently offlineLAXintl From United States of America, joined May 2000, 24796 posts, RR: 46
Reply 7, posted (1 year 8 months 4 days 14 hours ago) and read 8955 times:

According to now expired summer timetable, they are only regularly scheduled on a single market - Jeddah.

Though I have seen the 744 in HKG and SIN recent years.



From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
User currently onlineRoseflyer From United States of America, joined Feb 2004, 9489 posts, RR: 52
Reply 8, posted (1 year 8 months 4 days 14 hours ago) and read 8955 times:

With other airlines having big aspirations for the A380 and then backing out, I think Airbus is going to be very cautious before signing on to any deal. Airbus has sold the A380 to smaller airlines like Air Austral, Hong Kong Airlines, Kingfisher and Skymark. All of whom have had some question marks associated with whether they will actually take delivery of the airplanes on the terms that were originally agreed upon since the airlines are forecasting significant demand increases to fill the planes. I'd consider Garuda in the same category.


If you have never designed an airplane part before, let the real designers do the work!
User currently offlinePlymSpotter From Spain, joined Jun 2004, 11611 posts, RR: 60
Reply 9, posted (1 year 8 months 4 days 14 hours ago) and read 8956 times:

Quoting Roseflyer (Reply 8):
Airbus has sold the A380 to smaller airlines like Air Austral, Hong Kong Airlines, Kingfisher and Skymark. All of whom have had some question marks associated with whether they will actually take delivery of the airplanes on the terms that were originally agreed upon since the airlines are forecasting significant demand increases to fill the planes. I'd consider Garuda in the same category.

On the flip side the same can be said for the major gulf carriers, and you don't see EK struggling to fill their aircraft. There are also some fairly obvious differences between Garuda and the carriers you mention.


Dan  



...love is just a camouflage for what resembles rage again...
User currently offlineHB-IWC From Greece, joined Sep 2000, 4496 posts, RR: 72
Reply 10, posted (1 year 8 months 4 days 13 hours ago) and read 8955 times:

The VLA story is never going to happen. GA does not have any route it can operate such aircraft on profitably outside the 2 times six weeks of the Hajj operation, for which it will continue to rely on 15+ leased widebodies.

In 2013, the first 4 B77W aircraft will be used to replace the two remaining B744s on CGK JED flights as well as to launch nonstop CGK AMS terminator flights in cooperation with KLM as part of Garuda's upcoming Skyteam membership. Meanwhile, GA will continue rebuilding its Europe presence, and the airline will likely launch LGW operations via AUH, in cooperation with EY, with which it recently signed a comprehensive code share agreement. GA is also looking into serving Moscow.


User currently offlineje89_w From United States of America, joined Mar 2002, 2360 posts, RR: 9
Reply 11, posted (1 year 8 months 4 days 11 hours ago) and read 8769 times:
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Quoting migair54 (Reply 6):
Where do they deploy the B747 right now?? DXB, HKG, Australia??
Quoting LAXintl (Reply 7):
According to now expired summer timetable, they are only regularly scheduled on a single market - Jeddah.

Though I have seen the 744 in HKG and SIN recent years.

Jeddah is the only GA destination that sees regular scheduled B744 service (some days double daily), but the route seems to be suspended from 19 Nov to 19 Jan, per Airlineroute info. Currently, it seems that the B744s are not flying (unless they're doing domestic routes like CGK-DPS).

During peak holiday periods, GA often deploys the B744 to SIN.


User currently offlineBen175 From Australia, joined Jul 2008, 674 posts, RR: 0
Reply 12, posted (1 year 8 months 4 days 9 hours ago) and read 8546 times:

Maybe they can send the 380 down to PER and squeeze 500 Bali-bound bogans on the plane.  

User currently offlinektachiya From Japan, joined Sep 2004, 1792 posts, RR: 2
Reply 13, posted (1 year 8 months 3 days 21 hours ago) and read 7799 times:

Quoting Ben175 (Reply 12):
Maybe they can send the 380 down to PER and squeeze 500 Bali-bound bogans on the plane

Their HND operations seem to be doing extremely well. They can reduce HND and NRT flights to one A380 from HND instead.



Flown on: DC-10-30, B747-200B, B747-300, B747-300SR, B747-400, B747-400D, B767-300, B777-200, B777-200ER, B777-300
User currently offlinemigair54 From Spain, joined Jun 2007, 1650 posts, RR: 0
Reply 14, posted (1 year 8 months 3 days 20 hours ago) and read 7551 times:

Quoting ktachiya (Reply 13):
Their HND operations seem to be doing extremely well. They can reduce HND and NRT flights to one A380 from HND instead.

It could be an option but for that they only need 1 plane and only for 12-13 hours, not even the whole day. they could combine with HKG and get a high MZFW version but still not the best way to operate the plane because of the high cycles will reduce the life span of the frame.

Quoting je89_w (Reply 11):
During peak holiday periods, GA often deploys the B744 to SIN.
Quoting HB-IWC (Reply 10):
In 2013, the first 4 B77W aircraft will be used to replace the two remaining B744s on CGK JED flights as well as to launch nonstop CGK AMS terminator flights in cooperation with KLM as part of Garuda's upcoming Skyteam membership. Meanwhile, GA will continue rebuilding its Europe presence, and the airline will likely launch LGW operations via AUH, in cooperation with EY, with which it recently signed a comprehensive code share agreement. GA is also looking into serving Moscow.

And to start building an european network the B777 is more appropiate than the A380 or even B748, however now the compentence with the middle east carriers like EK, QR, TK.. it´s very fierce and then also SQ, MH, TG... I see it very difficult but maybe they can find a place in the market, I think they could do also very nice with B787.

what about US East Coast?? i think they use to operate to LAX before being banned.


User currently onlineRoseflyer From United States of America, joined Feb 2004, 9489 posts, RR: 52
Reply 15, posted (1 year 8 months 3 days 19 hours ago) and read 7142 times:

Quoting migair54 (Reply 14):

what about US East Coast?? i think they use to operate to LAX before being banned.

The market between Indonesia and the US is very small. It has also been established that HKG is about the furthest south airport in Asia that can sustain nonstop service to the US. The 748 or A380 would be a disaster on 1-stop CGK-LAX routes. Maybe the 787 or 777, but never a 748 or A380.

It has been a long time since a US airline served Indonesia which shows how small of a market is.

Amsterdam and Jeddah are the markets where Garuda could use a large airplane. Neither are particularly slot controlled, so Garuda would be better off adding frequency with the 77Ws that they already have on order rather than buy a bigger plane only to have it lose money during the slow season.



If you have never designed an airplane part before, let the real designers do the work!
User currently offlinebehramjee From Canada, joined Aug 2003, 4746 posts, RR: 43
Reply 16, posted (1 year 8 months 3 days 18 hours ago) and read 6498 times:

Gardua does not need to waste its financial resources by ordering a VLA and that too another aircraft type into its vast fleet.

If it really wants a high dense aircraft for Hajj and for year round flights to JED and other high volume routes, it should purchase 7-8 more B777-300ERs and configure them into a high density 2 class layout which would seat 470 passengers. The J class can be of a regional layout with a 45 inch seat pitch and 130 degree recline only and should have max 18-24 seats in the cabin.

This aircraft type apart from Hajj, can be used year round to JED for Umrah season too + year round to Abu Dhabi (especially now with vast EY code sharing deal being signed), Riyadh, Hong Kong, Beijing, Shanghai and Tokyo.


User currently offlinena From Germany, joined Dec 1999, 10632 posts, RR: 9
Reply 17, posted (1 year 8 months 3 days 18 hours ago) and read 6368 times:

Very good if they consider a VLA if their routes allow for it. No reason to be as shy as some of the competition which has its pants full  A380s and 748s are more comfortable and therefore better marketable planes than the 777W everyone else got anyway and which no marketing department can make a point of anymore. I hope they convert some of the 77W orders to 748Is. Every true aviation enthuasist will think so too!

User currently onlineRoseflyer From United States of America, joined Feb 2004, 9489 posts, RR: 52
Reply 18, posted (1 year 8 months 3 days 17 hours ago) and read 6160 times:

Quoting na (Reply 17):
A380s and 748s are more comfortable and therefore better marketable planes than the 777W everyone else got anyway and which no marketing department can make a point of anymore.

Pilgrims to Mecca aren't necessarily the demographic to care about what airplane they are flying or appreciate the comforts of the latest and greatest that marketing to offer. A sizeable percentage will have never flown on an airplane before and will never fly on an airplane again.



If you have never designed an airplane part before, let the real designers do the work!
User currently onlinejfk777 From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 8275 posts, RR: 7
Reply 19, posted (1 year 8 months 3 days 17 hours ago) and read 6041 times:
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Buying A380 is the last thing Garuda should be considering. The Haj is a limited time of the years, about 6 weeks. Garuda needs to fleet plan for 52 weeks a years, the 77W acomplishes that. Flying to the USA makes no commercial sense for Garuda. Since Garuda is a Skyteam airline connecting with Delta at NRT is the easiest way for US to Indonesia travel, using Amsterdam is also good for east coast US travel. The 748 is not viable as the 77W is very close in size.

User currently offline777way From Pakistan, joined Dec 2005, 5716 posts, RR: 4
Reply 20, posted (1 year 8 months 3 days 15 hours ago) and read 5207 times:

Quoting migair54 (Reply 14):
i think they use to operate to LAX before being banned.

banned for what? they served LAX and HNL and quit the places, they werent kicked out.


User currently offlineGARUDAROD From United States of America, joined Apr 2000, 1514 posts, RR: 1
Reply 21, posted (1 year 8 months 3 days 15 hours ago) and read 5111 times:

Quoting 777way (Reply 20):
Quoting migair54 (Reply 14):
i think they use to operate to LAX before being banned.

banned for what? they served LAX and HNL and quit the places, they werent kicked out.

Garuda stopped flying to the U.S. in November 1997 due to the SARS outbreak and the Asian Economic
Crisis. This had nothing to do with the ban issued by the CAA in the mid 2000's that stopped all of their
flights to Europe that remained.

Contrary to what people think, the Los Angeles area has the second highest concentration of Indonesian
people outside of the Netherlands and of course Indonesia.
A return to the U.S. has long been discussed, whether it ever materializes again is the basis for many
opinions.



Cargo doesn't whine, moan, or complain
User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 30537 posts, RR: 84
Reply 22, posted (1 year 8 months 3 days 15 hours ago) and read 5015 times:
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Quoting GARUDAROD (Reply 21):
Garuda stopped flying to the U.S. in November 1997 due to the SARS outbreak and the Asian Economic Crisis.

While the AEC was in 1997, SARS was 2003.


User currently offlinemandala499 From Indonesia, joined Aug 2001, 6760 posts, RR: 76
Reply 23, posted (1 year 8 months 3 days 6 hours ago) and read 4582 times:

Quoting HB-IWC (Reply 10):
The VLA story is never going to happen.

Obviously... but I think the rest of this forum wonders why the CEO made such an announcement (of course, we both know it's just 'talk' to please politicians.

Quoting kaitak (Reply 1):
Can they not continue to just lease capacity from other carriers during the Hajj?

There is a slight problem for Hajj ops in the next few years... as it moves about 10-14 days a year, it's now beginning to encroach on the tail end of the northern summer peak season... this will raise the cost of the hajj wet leases at least for another few years.

Quoting PlymSpotter (Reply 2):
Makes sense. Even with another runway CGK is going to be seriously capacity restricted in the future and at the rate air travel/tourism is growing a full A333 will equate to a full VLA in a decade.

Simple answer: NO.
There's no international markets that warrant a VLA. The market (both Indonesian domestic and Indonesian international) is in love with frequency over "large aircraft" at the moment. Domestically, using widebody has so far been a money losing proposition.

If you want to talk about tourism... most go to DPS, which is undergoing an expansion & revamp of it terminals. CGK will remain mainly a business destination. The tourist market of central Java is served by several intl flights from 3 airports there, and there will be airport expansion (SRG), and a new airport (replace JOG) to cater for future growth. The bulk of the Sumatra market is in MES, that too will be getting a new airport to replace the current one. UPG is now beginning to have GA hubbing there, with QZ joining, and JT already there.

All these will relieve the pressure on CGK, and spread the growth directly to the growth areas, while CGK waits for the new 3rd runway, and additional terminals... (CGK is not only running out of runway slots, but also parking slots both for airplanes, and for visitors cars!    )

Quoting migair54 (Reply 6):
Where do they deploy the B747 right now?? DXB, HKG, Australia??

JED... JED.... JED.... JED...

Quoting je89_w (Reply 11):
Jeddah is the only GA destination that sees regular scheduled B744 service (some days double daily), but the route seems to be suspended from 19 Nov to 19 Jan, per Airlineroute info.

Suspended, most of the pax to JED are inclusive tour pax (Umra package tours), and there will be renovations to the the main mosque in Mecca during that time, hence, Umra packages are stopping for that period... so.... why fly there?

Quoting Roseflyer (Reply 15):
The market between Indonesia and the US is very small. It has also been established that HKG is about the furthest south airport in Asia that can sustain nonstop service to the US. The 748 or A380 would be a disaster on 1-stop CGK-LAX routes. Maybe the 787 or 777, but never a 748 or A380.

It is not small. It's just that CGK-US is well served by other carriers so far. It forms a consistent part of the passengers for SIN-LAX and SIN-EWR non-stops, and the 'normal' services are will covered by BR, CI, CX, SQ, TG, KE, OZ, JL, NH, and add also LH, KL, TK, EK, QR for east coast USA... these airlines actively (but low key) market USA from CGK, but SQ takes the lead on the 'exposure' at the moment.

But yes, 777 or even 332, would be the right way to go for the US routes.

Quoting Roseflyer (Reply 15):
It has been a long time since a US airline served Indonesia which shows how small of a market is.

It's more of a lack of widebody aircraft to fly the route. Plus, there are more high-yield routes around here waiting to be milked.

Quoting na (Reply 17):
A380s and 748s are more comfortable and therefore better marketable planes than the 777W everyone else got anyway and which no marketing department can make a point of anymore.

For Hajj? You nuts? Hajj flights = Pack as many pax as you can onto the airplanes.
A majority of the Hajj pax, never been on an aircraft before.
The minority, the "hajj lux" packages, are small... and they use the regular flights.

Besides, outside the Hajj season, the Umra packages, are also, mostly, 1st time flyers... and go with tour operators, who wants to keep the travel segment costs down to its lowest (EK, EY, QR, offer the lowest prices in this market).

Quoting na (Reply 17):
Every true aviation enthuasist will think so too!

Not every!   



When losing situational awareness, pray Cumulus Granitus isn't nearby !
User currently offlineN14AZ From Germany, joined Feb 2007, 2686 posts, RR: 25
Reply 24, posted (1 year 8 months 3 days 5 hours ago) and read 4510 times:

Quoting mandala499 (Reply 23):

There is a slight problem for Hajj ops in the next few years... as it moves about 10-14 days a year, it's now beginning to encroach on the tail end of the northern summer peak season... this will raise the cost of the hajj wet leases at least for another few years.

Interesting. I knew that Ramadan is moving every year but I didn't know that the Hadj season is moving as well.


25 afterburner : Hajj pilgrimage season, just like Ramadan, is based on Islamic calendar. One Islamic calendar year has only about 354 days, 11 days shorter than West
26 Post contains images EPA001 : Slightly off-topic of Garuda ordering a B748i or A380, which I also can not believe any time soon, I thought there are plans being developed for a ne
27 Post contains images PlymSpotter : The key part of that being 'at the moment'. The time will soon come, you can't keep adding frequency for ever. Dan
28 JQflightie : At the moment SYD and MEL see A330's and PER get B738's you took the words right out of my mouth! could you imagine? yuck! all those mullets and rats
29 Post contains images mandala499 : Airlines are now beginning to be forced to de-hub out of Jakarta... and set up bases outside. And infrastructure of other airports are improving, to
30 Post contains images art : To me it seems inconceivable that one (a business that happens to be an airline) would order equipment to service a very short lived demand spike, gi
31 EPA001 : OK. Thanks for your answer. How soon do you expect that a relieve for CGK can be build on the Eastern side of Jakarta?
32 HB-IWC : As indicated earlier in the thread, the issue was brought up because the Hajj operation is about to start overlapping with a time window during which
33 Post contains images PlymSpotter : Personally I think it'll be within 10 years that we see a Garuda VLA. I think DPS is just as likely a candidate for them, if not more so in a high Y
34 worldrider : Indonesia's economy is boooming!! at a fast pace, more and more locals travel abroad and there is an ever growing business traffic, its not just about
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