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Maybe A Larger B747-8i To Compete With A380?  
User currently offlinemitris From United States of America, joined Oct 2012, 24 posts, RR: 0
Posted (1 year 4 months 4 weeks 1 day 5 hours ago) and read 18234 times:

Sorry if this has been discussed before, but why Boeing is not designing an additional larger version of the B747-8i to compete with the A380?

98 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineyendig From United Kingdom, joined Mar 2006, 145 posts, RR: 0
Reply 1, posted (1 year 4 months 4 weeks 1 day 4 hours ago) and read 18208 times:
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AFAIK Boeing saw only limited future orders from the VLA category so, rather than designing a new 'superjumbo' to match the A380, updated their older 747 design & built the new 787 instead. As a business, they figured the 787 would offer them a better Return On Investment.

User currently offlineg500 From United States of America, joined Oct 2011, 896 posts, RR: 0
Reply 2, posted (1 year 4 months 4 weeks 1 day 4 hours ago) and read 18105 times:
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Quoting mitris (Thread starter):
Sorry if this has been discussed before, but why Boeing is not designing an additional larger version of the B747-8i to compete with the A380?

Why in the world would Boeing desing a "larger version of the 747-800 to compete with the A380"?? they're trying to sell aircraft not figure out who can build the largest airplane.

Boeing has been bashing Airbus because "the A380 is just too large for many markets" and now they're going to build something as big? not happening

[Edited 2012-11-20 17:00:54]

User currently offlineADent From United States of America, joined Dec 2006, 1333 posts, RR: 2
Reply 3, posted (1 year 4 months 4 weeks 1 day 4 hours ago) and read 18066 times:

Because they won't make money.

The 747-8i was a relatively low investment option - and yet not a big success.

They have in the past offered bigger versions and yet no orders - see 747-600X and 747-700X.

To take sales from the competitor, you want to be 15% cheaper. The A380 is not super efficient, but the A380-900 NEO would be the target that Boeing would need to beat. That means an all new plane. All new programs have not been great for Boeing - 787 is a train wreck, 777 cost more than planned.

Apparently Boeing doesn't think the money to invest in a A380-900 NEO killer would pay back in a timely matter. Not big enough market or not enough margin, or just too much risk.


User currently offlinemitris From United States of America, joined Oct 2012, 24 posts, RR: 0
Reply 4, posted (1 year 4 months 4 weeks 1 day 4 hours ago) and read 18039 times:

That makes sense, yendig. However, I believe Airbus has proven Boeing to be wrong with firm orders of the A380 to be reaching 262 as of today (according to Wikipedia).

On the other hand, Boeing has received 844 orders for the B787. Thus, this aircraft is indeed profitable. But Airbus designed the A350 as a competitor.

So, how come Boeing is not creating a stretched version of the B747-8i in the near future, so it can compete with the A380, and receive more orders?


User currently offlinemitris From United States of America, joined Oct 2012, 24 posts, RR: 0
Reply 5, posted (1 year 4 months 4 weeks 1 day 4 hours ago) and read 18010 times:

Quoting ADent (Reply 3):

Apparently Boeing doesn't think the money to invest in a A380-900 NEO killer would pay back in a timely matter. Not big enough market or not enough margin, or just too much risk.

Gotcya


User currently offlineart From United Kingdom, joined Feb 2005, 3341 posts, RR: 0
Reply 6, posted (1 year 4 months 4 weeks 1 day 4 hours ago) and read 18013 times:

The 748-i has a capacity niche below A380. Why stretch it so that it has to compete more directly with A380 (and possibly fail to win any orders)?

User currently offlinemitris From United States of America, joined Oct 2012, 24 posts, RR: 0
Reply 7, posted (1 year 4 months 4 weeks 1 day 4 hours ago) and read 17950 times:

Quoting art (Reply 6):

The 748-i has a capacity niche below A380. Why stretch it so that it has to compete more directly with A380 (and possibly fail to win any orders)?

Well, they are not doing well with their B747-8i orders. That's why I was suggesting to have two versions of the B747-8. I guess time will tell if the B747-8I will be successful.


User currently offlinejetblueguy22 From United States of America, joined Nov 2007, 2649 posts, RR: 4
Reply 8, posted (1 year 4 months 4 weeks 1 day 4 hours ago) and read 17913 times:
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Quoting mitris (Reply 4):
That makes sense, yendig. However, I believe Airbus has proven Boeing to be wrong with firm orders of the A380 to be reaching 262 as of today (according to Wikipedia).

On the other hand, Boeing has received 844 orders for the B787. Thus, this aircraft is indeed profitable. But Airbus designed the A350 as a competitor.

They may have 262 orders but last I heard they are still a good ways away from being profitable on the program. They invested a ton in the airplane. Same with the 787. Another article stated they may have to pump out 1000 before they start getting good returns. Which at the number they are currently at, may be very achievable. Just like load factors a full order book doesn't always equate to a profitable program.

There just isn't a huge market for aircraft as big as the A380. Maybe someday there will be a large demand, but as of now not really. The 747-8 seems to be hurt by the 777. It is an aircraft with great range and capacity and when compared the -8 provides similar things. Nothing really stands out about the 747. I personally think the 777 is worse for the 747 than the A380 program.
Blue



You push down on that yoke, the houses get bigger, you pull back on the yoke, the houses get bigger- Ken Foltz
User currently offlinebrilondon From Canada, joined Aug 2005, 4058 posts, RR: 1
Reply 9, posted (1 year 4 months 4 weeks 1 day 3 hours ago) and read 17876 times:

I don't think that Boeing wants to compete for the 262 frames. Not a whole lot of demand for such a large aircraft so why would Boeing want to build such an aircraft?


Rush for ever; Yankees all the way!!
User currently offlineRuscoe From Australia, joined Aug 1999, 1517 posts, RR: 2
Reply 10, posted (1 year 4 months 4 weeks 1 day 3 hours ago) and read 17868 times:

I would like to see how a smaller 748-SP, same size as 744, but 748 MTOW, would go. Would be a limited market I realise.
I wonder what the range of such an aircraft would be?

ruscoe


User currently offlinejfk777 From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 8090 posts, RR: 7
Reply 11, posted (1 year 4 months 4 weeks 1 day 3 hours ago) and read 17853 times:
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Quoting art (Reply 6):
The 748-i has a capacity niche below A380. Why stretch it so that it has to compete more directly with A380 (and possibly fail to win any orders)?

There are many planes today capable of 7000 miles carrying 300 passengers. The 748's best competition is the 777-300ER, offering an A380 size plane is a lemon. Offering 77W and 787-9 creates two winning programs. The "iconic" 747 is a great plane for its past, its future is as a niche machine.


User currently offlineJAAlbert From United States of America, joined Jan 2006, 1491 posts, RR: 1
Reply 12, posted (1 year 4 months 4 weeks 1 day 3 hours ago) and read 17748 times:

Quoting mitris (Reply 4):
I believe Airbus has proven Boeing to be wrong with firm orders of the A380 to be reaching 262 as of today (according to Wikipedia).

Yes, but didn't Boeing forecast a VLA market for only about 400 planes? I think Airbus' forecast three times that many planes. Perhaps the market will take off, but right now, it doesn't seem that demand can support two VLA programs. VLAs are also frightfully expensive and I know we've discussed on A.net a few airlines struggling to fit the A380 into their schedules due to its capacity. (I think this has been less a problem for the 748 because so few have ordered it!) If the airline can't fill the seats, it's got an expensive problem on its hands. I think it's just one reason - of many I'm sure - that makes an airline think long and hard before buying a VLA.


User currently offlinetdscanuck From Canada, joined Jan 2006, 12709 posts, RR: 80
Reply 13, posted (1 year 4 months 4 weeks 1 day 3 hours ago) and read 17714 times:

Quoting mitris (Thread starter):

Sorry if this has been discussed before, but why Boeing is not designing an additional larger version of the B747-8i to compete with the A380?

Because they'd lose money (or more money than the current 747-8i, take your pick).

Quoting mitris (Reply 4):
However, I believe Airbus has proven Boeing to be wrong with firm orders of the A380 to be reaching 262 as of today (according to Wikipedia).

262 isn't even enough to pay for the A380. If you split that market between the A380 and the 747-8i all you do is guarantee that *both* aircraft will never make money.

Quoting mitris (Reply 4):
So, how come Boeing is not creating a stretched version of the B747-8i in the near future, so it can compete with the A380, and receive more orders?

Because that's mutual suicide. If they keep the airplanes sufficiently different in size there's some hope that there's enough demand for A380-sized aircraft to keep the A380 profitable and enough demand for 747-8i-sized aircraft to keep the 747-8i profitable. If they go head-to-head, they're both guaranteed to lose.

Tom.


User currently offlinemffoda From United States of America, joined Apr 2010, 1019 posts, RR: 0
Reply 14, posted (1 year 4 months 4 weeks 1 day 3 hours ago) and read 17715 times:

Quoting art (Reply 6):
The 748-i has a capacity niche below A380. Why stretch it so that it has to compete more directly with A380 (and possibly fail to win any orders)?

Well, that is of course one way to look at it??... The reality is that Airbus shot for the Niche ABOVE the 747. I don't know how that will work out? But, please keep things in perspective.  



harder than woodpecker lips...
User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 29686 posts, RR: 84
Reply 15, posted (1 year 4 months 4 weeks 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 17498 times:
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Quoting mitris (Thread starter):
Sorry if this has been discussed before, but why Boeing is not designing an additional larger version of the B747-8i to compete with the A380?

Realistically, Boeing could stretch the 747-8 another 3m (to 79.5m). Using Boeing's OEM seating configuration, this would increase capacity from 467 to 492.

In LH's configuration, assuming they gave it all to Economy Class, that would raise capacity from 362 to 392. That is still 75% of the capacity of the A380-800 and 128 less Economy seats.


User currently offlinethegeek From Australia, joined Nov 2007, 2638 posts, RR: 0
Reply 16, posted (1 year 4 months 4 weeks 1 day 1 hour ago) and read 17382 times:

I never understood why the 748i was ever built. Boeing spent years/decades shopping around further derivatives of the 747 and a number of studies and found there wasn't enough market for them. Why didn't they continue to back their own judgement and leave the market for the A380?

User currently offlinecosmofly From United States of America, joined May 2009, 649 posts, RR: 0
Reply 17, posted (1 year 4 months 4 weeks 1 day 1 hour ago) and read 17358 times:

Boeing can already make the 747-8i "bigger" without stretching it. Clever use of the crown space from door 3 to 5 can do magic. Currently the space is already used by 5 747-8i VIPs.

http://www.greenpnt.com/wp-content/u...ivers-First-BBJ-747-8-Aeroloft.pdf

Easiest way to add seats is to move some galley and toilet up to that space to free up more main cabin area.

More adventurous design is to put more seats up in that space.

After the 2013 pips, may be Boeing can try to find some launch customers for such upgrade.


User currently offlinemitris From United States of America, joined Oct 2012, 24 posts, RR: 0
Reply 18, posted (1 year 4 months 4 weeks 1 day 1 hour ago) and read 17300 times:

Quoting cosmofly (Reply 17):

Boeing can already make the 747-8i "bigger" without stretching it. Clever use of the crown space from door 3 to 5 can do magic. Currently the space is already used by 5 747-8i VIPs.

http://www.greenpnt.com/wp-content/u...ivers-First-BBJ-747-8-Aeroloft.pdf

Easiest way to add seats is to move some galley and toilet up to that space to free up more main cabin area.

More adventurous design is to put more seats up in that space.

After the 2013 pips, may be Boeing can try to find some launch customers for such upgrade.

I LOVE your statement, cosmofly! I hope something like that happens. The B747 is such a beautiful aircraft. It's sad to see it disappearing. But yes, I know... Not so profitable these days.


User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 29686 posts, RR: 84
Reply 19, posted (1 year 4 months 4 weeks 1 day ago) and read 17157 times:
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Quoting thegeek (Reply 16):
I never understood why the 748i was ever built.

They wanted to counter the A380-800F and they greatly overestimated the market for the passenger model.


User currently offlineRuscoe From Australia, joined Aug 1999, 1517 posts, RR: 2
Reply 20, posted (1 year 4 months 4 weeks 1 day ago) and read 17139 times:

At a certain price the 748 will be more attractive than the 380.

It's doubtful Boeing would ever go that low, but it does keep a lid on the amount Airbus can charge, and that may be seen as beeficial to Boeing.

Ruscoe


User currently offlinethegeek From Australia, joined Nov 2007, 2638 posts, RR: 0
Reply 21, posted (1 year 4 months 4 weeks 1 day ago) and read 17137 times:

On the former point it can even be called a success. Perhaps a Pyrrhic victory though.

User currently offlineMcoov From United States of America, joined Jul 2011, 128 posts, RR: 1
Reply 22, posted (1 year 4 months 4 weeks 1 day ago) and read 17042 times:

Let's face it. With the 77W and the 787 and A350 (soon to be) around, nobody wants a 4-holer for the kinds of loads a 747 used to do, and nobody needs a massive 350+ capacity airplane for the ranges the 747 used to do. Exceptions exist, such as on US --> Europe routes, Australia --> North America routes, and the Kangaroo route, but considering what the 747's role used to be, this really does limit the need for such a large airplane. The same could be said for the A380: that its role is really limited to these kinds of routes. Anything else can be handled by a 77W.

User currently offlineMax Q From United States of America, joined May 2001, 4071 posts, RR: 19
Reply 23, posted (1 year 4 months 4 weeks 1 day ago) and read 17030 times:

I love the B747, she is the Queen of the skies and always will be.


Having said that, the 748 will be the end of the line.


I'm not a great fan of the A380, that's partly my bias against Airbus and partly it's frumpy looks but I think it has a bright future.


As the sole real new generation VLA I can see an increasing demand for it, especially higher performing and stretched versions which will really be game changers.



The best contribution to safety is a competent Pilot.
User currently onlinetravelhound From Australia, joined May 2008, 824 posts, RR: 12
Reply 24, posted (1 year 4 months 4 weeks 23 hours ago) and read 16988 times:

You would think if Boeing were to spend more money on the 747 they would be better off improving the existing 748i than going for another derivative.

25 CARST : I don't see the future of the A380 that positive. If we think about the average production time of an airplane program, most aircraft are obsolete af
26 Aither : The VLAs are largely targeting the big cities of Asia. Just look at where the A380 is used. Most commentators here are from America or Europe. The spe
27 dennys : Well i doubt about the A380-900 to BE built . And 4 holers are out of fashion on our days ....
28 par13del : The impetus for the 748i was the 748F, the pax version is an off shoot of the freighter model and Boeings views of the cargo market demands / desires
29 2175301 : I believe if Airbus had it all over to do again - they never would have built the A380 at all. It has proven to be a massive financial disaster - and
30 BlueSky1976 : Larger 747-8i to compete with A380? Lemme guess.... No way. I'd rather have two 777-9Xs instead.
31 dennys : USER PROFILE SEND INSTANT MSG ADD TO RESP MEMBERS SUGGEST DELETION SELECTED TEXT QUOTED _ Ruscoe From Australia, joined Aug 1999, 1385 posts, RR: 2 R
32 EPA001 : Like you said there are many variables which will determine in what direction future developments will take the airliners which we know of today. I a
33 Daysleeper : No it’s not – Far from it in fact. As has been discussed in many threads already the 787 is going to need upwards of 1600 orders to come anywhere
34 HOMsAR : All the arguments against Boeing designing a larger 747 are valid. Another one, not yet mentioned, is that Boeing is currently working on finishing up
35 Post contains links airfrnt : Given the lack of real commercial success shown by the A380, to say nothing of the 747-8i, why on earth would anyone get into this space? For the A38
36 Post contains images astuteman : Yep. By 2025-2027 I expect the A380 to have both upgraded engines (Trent XWB or GTF's) and some form of wingtip treatment (not a new wing, but someth
37 faro : The A380 has more than enough work competing with itself; no need -or space- for another competitor. Faro
38 Stitch : Boeing has already stated they have refused a number of 747-8 sales because the price offered by the customer was too low. Quite simply, Boeing canno
39 AirlineCritic : In general, the two manufacturers do not attempt to make their products compete head-on. They rather place their products in slightly different catego
40 airbazar : In order for it to be obsolete, there has to be something to replace it with. There's no way that we'll have another VLA airplane in 20 years. The lo
41 Stitch : Many customers purchased the 747-400 not for it's capacity, but for it's range. Once smaller planes with similar range became available, customers sta
42 tdscanuck : There is some demand in that space and the 747-400 was too old and inefficient. The *vast* majority of aircraft in production today come from program
43 Daysleeper : Unless I’m missing it I can’t find anywhere in that article which states the 787 will break even at 1100 frames, there are some comments which ma
44 StickShaker : There will be no more money spent on any 747 derivative - its a large black hole. Regards, StickShaker
45 B2707SST : For the past 15 years, Boeing has believed that the VLA market is not strong enough to justify a new model like the A380 or a major investment like t
46 Post contains images readytotaxi : A380 or B747 shape or size is not key for an airline in the future, but the development of engine technology is. When you can build an engine that ret
47 bobloblaw : There is barely a market for the A380 much less two of them. It would end up like the L1011 v DC10 debacle, which neither won.
48 Post contains images rcair1 : To date - Boeing's estimates for VLA market appear more realistic that Airbus's. I'm not seeing anything that will change that. I know there are lots
49 Aither : The dynamics are different when soon there will be 6 times more people flying long haul than 10 years ago. Not all the Chinese will have the freedom
50 Daysleeper : I’m not entirely sure what your point is here, as I’m not aware of any aircraft which is able to operate profitably when empty. The A380 will of
51 sbworcs : Would not let me quote actual text. With regard to break even for B787 being upwards of 1600 units. Ar these actual projections or guesses? Has Boein
52 airbazar : Boeing's and Airbus' market estimate is exactly the same and it has always been exactly the same. Airbus took the plunge on the A380 because they kne
53 Stitch : Boeing's initial accounting block for the 787 is 1100 deliveries. However, the accounting block is not how many airframes Boeing believes they need t
54 redflyer : I think it was a low-cost option to hedge their bets against the A380 in case the VLA market did take off. However, in hindsight, that "low cost" tur
55 sbworcs : Many thanks. So is the 1600 mentioned likely to be the accounting block of likely total sales or the analysts guesstimate of break even?
56 Post contains links B2707SST : The 747 at this point in its development life (12 years after launch, or 1978) had sold 433 airframes, and the commercial aircraft market then was mu
57 Stitch : I am of the opinion this is a "program break even" figure as I believe the 787 family will exceed that number in sales.
58 ER757 : It would be a good question if Boeing had seen no market for a VLA, but as has been stated many, many times, they never said that.
59 7BOEING7 : The A380 was built for prestige and to provide jobs; with government funding behind them very little thought was given to profit--the 748 was built to
60 KC135TopBoom : The firm order of 262 airplanes for the A-380 averages just 21.8 airplanes per year for the 12 year old program (from launch in 2000). The B-747-8 was
61 jetblueguy22 : Although the governments have an interest in Airbus they are a for profit business. We all have our favorite manufacturers and want them to do well b
62 Post contains images EPA001 : Oh no. Not this again. That is absolutely total rubbish which has been discussed at least a 1,000 times here. . Very true. I could not agree more.
63 Daysleeper : I don’t refute the fact that the A380 hasn’t exactly gone to plan and it certainly has cost significantly more than Airbus ever intended, my obje
64 Viscount724 : I think it's clear the DC-10 won with 446 sold compared to only 250 L-1011s which almost bankrupted Lockheed and did bankrupt Rolls-Royce and resulte
65 B2707SST : The 787 business case benefits tremendously from the fact that it has a very clear market opportunity. There are thousands of 767s, 777-200s, MD-11s,
66 RickNRoll : Compare the resale/lease prices for an A380 to 748, the A380 is holding it's value very well. That indicates the level of latent interest in the plan
67 Stitch : That being said, the long-term value prognosis for the 747-8 is still about as strong as the A380-800 - likely due to the expectation of a future Boe
68 tdscanuck : Yes, this applies to any aircraft. The point is that, since the A380 is so big, you have to be a lot more careful with it (in terms of route structur
69 mffoda : That is a bit disengenuousness, since there is No resale value to compare with? And, I wonder why/how that argument would be any different from the A
70 RickNRoll : Kind of my point. The A380 has a value, and it is high compared to new, because it is a viable commodity. The 748i on the other hand doesn't. When I
71 thegeek : Yet the forecasts were for 2:1 sales ratio 748i:748F Hmm... Perhaps they figured the margins on the freighter model would be higher or something. The
72 Post contains images solnabo : Take notice Boeing. If they´re to make a bigger 748i then Airbus have the A389 in service before we can say "superheavies"
73 Post contains images Unflug : It's always a good approach in statistics to carefully select your numbers before doing the math, isn't it?
74 rheinwaldner : This might speak more about the 748 than the VLA market. Not the vast majority. And as the 77W really is more a VLA than a mid-twin (check how payloa
75 Post contains images N14AZ : The thread opener was refering to the B 748i, not the freighter. What kind of relevance has such an analysis for the on-going discussion? It's like a
76 flipdewaf : Are you new here? do some reading>learn some facts>come back and discuss facts. OK then topboom we'll do your version of statistics, if you tak
77 travelhound : I question this one. With the exception of EK all of the major players have been previous 747 operators. QANTAS use to have a fleet of 36 747's. In a
78 Aither : Thanks for the analysis Travelhound. On top of other things previously said the distribution of the international traffic has dramatically changed the
79 KC135TopBoom : No sir, the A-380 has sold 106 airplanes since 2007, about the same number as the B-748 has sold. The A-388 sold 156 airplanes between 2000 and 2006.
80 rheinwaldner : So what? I said "A significant number of the today ordered A380's do not replace older VLA's at all.". You wrote a long post that proves that I would
81 Stitch : Well EK didn't even exist until 1985 and spent it's first decade as mostly a regional carrier. I'd argue that was because EK didn't start their major
82 bobloblaw : After the DC-10, MDD never again developed an entirely new aircraft. All subsequent models were simply derivitives of existing frames.
83 Post contains images astuteman : Sort of proves the point, really, though that. Doesn't it? The percentage of A380's that have NOT gone into a direct role as a 747 replacement is ver
84 Stitch : It depends on the point you are trying to make. If the point is that EK would never have expanded like they have if they only had the 747, I'd disagr
85 Post contains images astuteman : The point was very simple. These A380's are frequently not "1 for 1" replacing 747's, but going into fleets that have never used 747's, indeed for th
86 rheinwaldner : No, the point that was made, was that the 744-to-A380 conversion rate would representative for the future success of the A380. I only tried to explai
87 Daysleeper : With the A380 you are of course correct as it's EIS was only 5 years ago - Which was my point in the first place!!
88 Post contains images art : Well, A380 has sold about 260 in about 12 years - about 21 per annum A380 has sold about 100 in the last 6 years - about 16 a year The trend is obvio
89 Stitch : Okay. I understand now. And yes, as 747-400 operators were already replacing those planes with A340-600s in the 1990s and 777-300ERs in the 2000s, re
90 SEPilot : The original conception of the 747 was that it would have a short life as a passenger carrier and then the airlines would all buy SST's, and the 747'
91 travelhound : I would argue the success or failure of the EK model (and airlines of similar like) is not dependent upon the A380 (especially when you consider the
92 RickNRoll : We do know how the resale price of an A380 is going, it was in the currently leasing values topic. The 777 and A380 are both holding their value very
93 cosmofly : Take LH 747-8i configuration. Boeing can use the Aeroloft space from door 3-5 and add 50 seats with biz jet like atmosphere. Even at 32" pitch, such
94 art : If that would not cost much to do why does Boeing not offer it to make the aircraft more attractive to potential customers? There are reports that Bo
95 Daysleeper : Because although it might be relatively simple to install the seats and load the passengers into the OSU, getting them out in a hurry during an emerg
96 thegeek : There is nothing really preventing the MTOW being raised. So the range could be held constant.
97 rheinwaldner : Of course I don't. I only countered a claim that the 744-to-A380 conversion rate would give the full picture.
98 Post contains images Darksnowynight : Right. The thing is that Boeing really have no interest in the A380's profit margins. If they sell a 748i, it's to help their bottom line, not to hur
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