Gonzalo From Chile, joined Aug 2005, 1675 posts, RR: 0 Posted (5 months 3 weeks 3 days 15 hours ago) and read 4211 times:
I'm not talking about the quality or safety of the aircraft itself, but about the real fact that there are so few orders, from so few operators from Western countries, that it looks like there is no real future, long term, for this model except maybe in Russia and its allies. If we took out the orders from Russian operators, or from operators of countries under the Russian influence, the orders are almost non existent. And the the SSJ must compete with the E-Jets, COMAC, C-Series, and even the An-148 in Russia too.
In addition, the financial shape of Sukhoi Civil Aircraft is not precisely good, with net losses of U$D 100M in the first half of 2012...
XT6Wagon From United States of America, joined Feb 2007, 3132 posts, RR: 4 Reply 1, posted (5 months 3 weeks 3 days 15 hours ago) and read 4186 times:
maybe you should give a plane more than a few months after one enters into service to judge how its doing in the market. Aircraft are NOT cheap plastic toys you can puke out by the thousands in a day.
PanHAM From Germany, joined May 2005, 7771 posts, RR: 26 Reply 2, posted (5 months 3 weeks 3 days 15 hours ago) and read 4141 times:
The cost pof the aircraft itself is really not so important, more important are the costs of operation. That inclues freliability of the aircraft itself, the spares service, maintenance and whatever else it takes.
Russian built aircraft have so far no proven track record that could encourage any western operators to buy.
Gonzalo From Chile, joined Aug 2005, 1675 posts, RR: 0 Reply 3, posted (5 months 3 weeks 3 days 15 hours ago) and read 4146 times:
Quoting XT6Wagon (Reply 1): maybe you should give a plane more than a few months after one enters into service to judge how its doing in the market. Aircraft are NOT cheap plastic toys you can puke out by the thousands in a day.
Ok, point taken.... but there are cases, several cases, of planes being sold like chocolate muffins even long time *before* EIS....
Aquila3 From Italy, joined Nov 2010, 208 posts, RR: 0 Reply 4, posted (5 months 3 weeks 3 days 14 hours ago) and read 4120 times:
I would not mind the "westerns" . It certainly not where the growth is. And possibly not the realistic target of the SSJ.
Hoping the best for this project.
chi vola vale chi vale vola chi non vola è un vile
DrColenzo From UK - Scotland, joined Jan 2012, 105 posts, RR: 1 Reply 5, posted (5 months 3 weeks 3 days 14 hours ago) and read 4057 times:
Quoting PanHAM (Reply 2):
The cost pof the aircraft itself is really not so important, more important are the costs of operation. That inclues freliability of the aircraft itself, the spares service, maintenance and whatever else it takes.
Russian built aircraft have so far no proven track record that could encourage any western operators to buy.
Exactly, this is exactly how the market will be established for aircraft such as the SSJ and other similar projects from Russia and China.
If you want to see a case study of a similar situation, look at the Embraer ERJ family - it was a radical departure from the previous products the company produced and was released at a time when Embraer had narrowly avoided bankruptcy and was privatised by the Brazilian government. However, the ERJ gained from the reliable reputation of the EMB 120, used the technology developed for the stillborn Embraer/FMA CBA 123 Vector and used already proven US and European engines and avionics. As a result, the success of the E-Jet family was built on this reputation for reliability and east of use and Embraer can now think about offering a wider produce base in the future.
Russian or Chinese civilian aircraft can only succeed by following a similar path to build a reputation for cost effective and reliable operation. I think the Chinese are doing this well by sourcing engines and avionics from overseas and because their designs are 'clean-sheet' without a past, they will not suffer from the previous reputation that Russian products have.
However, I have to admit to be unsure about the western prospects of the SSJ, AN-148/158 or Irkut MS-21 - partially based upon the entry into service problems of the first two examples but also because the MS-21 won't be an entirely clear sheet design and will owe a partial debt to a project to evolve the Yak-42 into the 242 with two underwing PS-90 engines. That said, the Comac ARJ-21 is a rehashed DC-9/MD-80 with new engines, avionics and wings, the 717 followed a smilar concept smilar and works well despite low sales and so maybe the MS-21 will work out in the end?
My personal view is the SSJ will do fine but that it will only represent a stepping stone to better Russian model in the future.
Aquila3 From Italy, joined Nov 2010, 208 posts, RR: 0 Reply 6, posted (5 months 3 weeks 3 days 14 hours ago) and read 3991 times:
BTW I am flying quite a lot recently from VIE to the ex-URSS. Most of the times you get a cramped Fokker or an old 737 Classic in codeshare. A SSJ would be really welcome there. What plans AUA have for replacing its aging Fokker fleet (assuming AUA will survive at all) ?
chi vola vale chi vale vola chi non vola è un vile
rfields5421 From United States of America, joined Jul 2007, 6150 posts, RR: 25 Reply 8, posted (5 months 3 weeks 3 days 14 hours ago) and read 3930 times:
Quoting flyingturtle (Reply 7): when will the Indonesian accident investigation board publish its results?
Someone in that region will have to answer that question - but there was recently a thread on this forum announcing that the SSJ had passed certification tests in Indonesia and was now legal to carry paying passengers in that country.
To me that hints the SSJ accident report is going to come down to pilot error in flying too low in a high terrain area.
lightsaber From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 10682 posts, RR: 100 Reply 10, posted (5 months 3 weeks 3 days 12 hours ago) and read 3628 times:
Quoting PanHAM (Reply 2): Russian built aircraft have so far no proven track record that could encourage any western operators to buy.
The SSJ must prove dispatch reliability, turn time, fuel burn, and maintenance economics.
Quoting Gonzalo (Reply 3): but there are cases, several cases, of planes being sold like chocolate muffins even long time *before* EIS....
Only from vendors with a proven track record. The SSJ lacks that proven track record. It is is a reliable and economic aircraft, it will sell.
lollomz From Italy, joined Sep 2005, 146 posts, RR: 0 Reply 11, posted (5 months 3 weeks 3 days 11 hours ago) and read 3488 times:
In my opinion SSJ will have more public when Interjet will start operations with it. Tha first plane will be delivered in Mexico in March 2013. Time will tell about the western market.
srbmod From United States of America, joined Mar 2001, 16888 posts, RR: 51 Reply 13, posted (5 months 3 weeks 3 days 5 hours ago) and read 3024 times:
While the bulk of the orders have been from Russian and Asian carriers, there has been orders from Western carriers (Interjet and Blue Panorama) as well as Western a/c leasing firms (Willis Finance and Pearl Aircraft Corporation). One problem for Sukhoi is that they're trying to enter a crowded market and Western carriers have for the most part opted for the E-Jets and the CRJ-700/900/1000 for the market segment the Superjet fits into. They might see some additional orders from Western carriers, but unless they can get an order from a top tier Western airline, they will struggle to gain customers in the West.
Quoting TC957 (Reply 12): I'm surprised the Iranian Airlines haven't ordered lots of them. Or are there too many American bits and pieces on a SSJ ?
There's quite a few US companies with involvement with the Superjet:
The Powerjet SaM146 engine is based off the CFM56 developed jointly by GE Aviation and Snecma via their CFM International joint venture, so it may have enough US tech in it to fail under this as well.
r2rho From Germany, joined Feb 2007, 2249 posts, RR: 1 Reply 14, posted (5 months 3 weeks 2 days 15 hours ago) and read 2592 times:
Western Countries... so what? The growth is elsewhere. The days when it was mandatory to sell in the West to be successful are over, an aircraft program can do perfectly fine selling in Asia, LatAm and Middle East only, without having a single a/c in the US or EU.
Of course, it would still be a big credibility boost for the program to land a customer there, and should be attempted. But with patience. Before any Western customer considers it, it needs to be operational in larger numbers with more customers, proving reliability, economics, etc.
The SSJ is the Russian industry's first serious post-Soviet attempt at an all-new a/c program and should be seen in the larger picture too - it is serving to consolidate and modernize the Russian industry as well as a stepping stone towards the MS-21, it is more than just about selling aircraft, although I'm confident it will at least break even.
Quoting lollomz (Reply 11): In my opinion SSJ will have more public when Interjet will start operations with it. Tha first plane will be delivered in Mexico in March 2013. Time will tell about the western market.
Probably some routes will be operated into the US, giving the a/c some very valuable exposure there too.
Quoting srbmod (Reply 13): I'm surprised the Iranian Airlines haven't ordered lots of them. Or are there too many American bits and pieces on a SSJ ?
There's quite a few US companies with involvement with the Superjet:
Correct, and that makes the SSJ a no-go for them, why is why they are getting An-148's/158's IIRC.
anrec80 From Canada, joined Jan 2011, 114 posts, RR: 0 Reply 15, posted (5 months 2 weeks 6 days 20 hours ago) and read 2089 times:
In fact there was an Italian customer, but they were gone because of delays. SSJ has been designed to receive EASA and FAA certification as a type, but that's not yet there. Once the certificates are obtained, I do see negotiations with Western airlines - there is no reason for that not to happen.
They will also look at reliability and performance. SU gets their 10 original planes replaced with newer built frames, since many improvements were necessary to bring the type to the promised specs. And Sukhoi is willing to do it. Nice - its like changing a car after a year of use or so.
gipsy From Germany, joined Mar 2009, 100 posts, RR: 0 Reply 17, posted (5 months 2 weeks 6 days 18 hours ago) and read 1904 times:
Besides the economy of the aircraft the support is a vital interest of operators. I only know that support for military aircraft built in Russia is a nightmare. Takes forever and costs a fortune. Even with Alenia being a partner I suspect that many fear being left alone with AOGs. If the economies are on track and the trust in the support chain can be established it will take up momentum. Otherwise not. And I think airlines now how to figure that out, even if just a few operators use this type.
r2rho From Germany, joined Feb 2007, 2249 posts, RR: 1 Reply 18, posted (5 months 2 weeks 6 days 13 hours ago) and read 1715 times:
Quoting anrec80 (Reply 15): In fact there was an Italian customer, but they were gone because of delays.
My understanding is that the survival of Blue Panorama is at stake, havinf filed for bankrupcty after a failed AZ acquisition deal, and that is the reason why these orders are "on hold" pending what will happen to the airline.
Quoting anrec80 (Reply 15): SSJ has been designed to receive EASA and FAA certification as a type, but that's not yet there.
EASA certification was granted in february this year. No need for FAA certification as there are no US customers, but after having EASA it wouldn't be a huge deal, if a US customer shows interest they will surely do it.
Quoting anrec80 (Reply 15): SU gets their 10 original planes replaced with newer built frames, since many improvements were necessary to bring the type to the promised specs.
SavannahMark From United States of America, joined Dec 2012, 22 posts, RR: 0 Reply 20, posted (5 months 2 weeks 6 days 9 hours ago) and read 1503 times:
Not sure if this link has been posted before during conversations about the Sukhoi Superjet but it still appears to be as applicable as ever:
strfyr51 From United States of America, joined Apr 2012, 488 posts, RR: 0 Reply 21, posted (5 months 2 weeks 6 days 9 hours ago) and read 1476 times:
If the SSJ comes in and is reliable and at a GOOD price?? The airplane will sell. BUT! Because the prime contractors have only a limited western exposure? The Price had BETTER be good, and I mean REAL GOOD !! they'd better Not be counting on much more than Razor Thin Profits for a LONG time or they won't be selling anything in the west since they have no real track record in the commercial jet market.
SKAirbus From Norway, joined Oct 2007, 1327 posts, RR: 2 Reply 23, posted (5 months 2 weeks 3 days 16 hours ago) and read 1008 times:
Russian airliners are catching up with their western counterparts but in terms of innovation, they have very little to offer when you compare with the likes of Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier, Embraer etc. At the moment Sukhoi cannot compete with the level of investment in the aforementioned companies and although a lot of western assistance has been sought building the SSJ, it lacks something.
I also can't see how the SSJ fits into the Aeroflot fleet other than the Russian government pressuring the airline to purchase it.
Then again, I wouldn't write it off just yet.
Next Flights: LHR-OSL (319), OSL-LHR (321), LHR-ARN (320), ARN-VXO (S34), VXO-BMA (ATP), ARN-LHR (763), LHR-CPH (320), C
25 connies4ever: Can't remember the issue, but 8-9 months ago "AIR International" had a feature on the SSJ that seemed to indicate engine sfc was about 3% over target
26 art: Are you saying that (a) performance falls short of what is guaranteed or (b) Sukhoi think they need to make significant improvements to the SSJ for i
27 connies4ever: Both. Existing SSJ can't meet guarantees, if you believe AIR International (and I tend to). And Sukhoi by focussing more on an NG version tells me th
Sponsor Message: 
From Chile, joined Aug 2005, 1675 posts, 
From United States of America, joined Feb 2007, 3132 posts, 
From Germany, joined May 2005, 7771 posts, 
From Italy, joined Nov 2010, 208 posts, 
From UK - Scotland, joined Jan 2012, 105 posts, 
From Switzerland, joined Oct 2011, 1283 posts, 
The SSJ must prove dispatch reliability, turn time, fuel burn, and maintenance economics. 
From UK - England, joined May 2012, 336 posts, 
From Canada, joined Jan 2011, 114 posts, 
From Mexico, joined Mar 2000, 5127 posts, 
From Lebanon, joined Feb 2005, 2937 posts, 
From Norway, joined Oct 2007, 1327 posts, 
Printer friendly format 
