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Qatar Increases Order Of A350-1000 Considerably  
User currently offlineQatarA340 From Qatar, joined May 2006, 1817 posts, RR: 6
Posted (1 year 8 months 2 weeks 6 days 16 hours ago) and read 15536 times:

This was unexpected. Looks like the death of the A358 and a boost of confidence of A350-1000.

Qatar Airways converted its a bit of it A358 to A350-1000 to have a total of 37 A350-1000s!


Quote:

Airbus said Qatar Airways had upgraded its order for the largest A350-1000 variant to 37 planes from 20 and increased its order for the base model, the A350-900, by three planes to 43, confirming what aviation sources had previously told Reuters.

However these are not net new orders, since the same airline has scrapped an order for the A350-800, the smallest variant which faces speculation about its future due to weak sales.

The upgraded order will net Airbus an extra $2.8 billion at list prices. In volume, Qatar's A350 order remain at 80 units.




http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/.../uk-airbus-a-idUSLNE8B202920121203


لا اله الا الله محمد رسول الله
34 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineKarelXWB From Netherlands, joined Jul 2012, 11179 posts, RR: 33
Reply 1, posted (1 year 8 months 2 weeks 6 days 16 hours ago) and read 15481 times:

And the official press release:
http://www.airbus.com/presscentre/pr...dorses-the-larger-a350-xwb-models/



Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity. And I'm not sure about the universe.
User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 30855 posts, RR: 86
Reply 2, posted (1 year 8 months 2 weeks 6 days 16 hours ago) and read 15426 times:
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Quoting QatarA340 (Thread starter):
This was unexpected.

Not really. QR announced the plans like a month ago.  


User currently offlinePHX787 From Japan, joined Mar 2012, 7394 posts, RR: 17
Reply 3, posted (1 year 8 months 2 weeks 6 days 16 hours ago) and read 15400 times:

Quoting Stitch (Reply 2):
Not really. QR announced the plans like a month ago.

Im not surprised either. QR needs some long haul replacement for the Airbus planes.



次は、渋谷、渋谷。出口は、右側です。電車とホームの間は広く開いておりますので、足元に注意下さい。
User currently offlineQatarA340 From Qatar, joined May 2006, 1817 posts, RR: 6
Reply 4, posted (1 year 8 months 2 weeks 6 days 16 hours ago) and read 15401 times:

Quoting Stitch (Reply 2):

Yes and at the same time we were getting mixed feelings about the A350 1000 since EK and QR are not fully satisfied with it.



لا اله الا الله محمد رسول الله
User currently offlinemigair54 From Spain, joined Jun 2007, 1694 posts, RR: 0
Reply 5, posted (1 year 8 months 2 weeks 6 days 16 hours ago) and read 15322 times:

80 is not a bad number for the A350´s..... it looks like they are really working many years in advance and doing a good fleet planning, I always wonder how do you do such a thing with an airline like Qatar and such a big grow, it must be difficult to make really accurate planning for let´s say 15 years time...

It seems like they have no limit, how many planes on order do they have as today, and what models?? it´s just crazy...

Last time I went to Doha, a good friend told me that one of the challenge they are facing is the training for pilots, they need around 700 new pilots a year and it´s not that easy to arrange all of this, specially also including to that number upgrades to captain from existing pilots. it´s a big challenge for Training and HR.


User currently onlineastuteman From United Kingdom, joined Jan 2005, 9997 posts, RR: 96
Reply 6, posted (1 year 8 months 2 weeks 6 days 16 hours ago) and read 15168 times:
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Quoting Stitch (Reply 2):
QR announced the plans like a month ago

Gads! That was kept very quiet! Or else I've fallen asleep at the wheel.

In which case that's probably because I got bored of the (recent) threads telling us how dissatisfied the Gulf carriers are with the A350-1000 
Quoting QatarA340 (Reply 4):
Yes and at the same time we were getting mixed feelings about the A350 1000 since EK and QR are not fully satisfied with it

It's somewhat humourous to recall how when Airbus made the changes to the A350-800, QR endorsed it as "differentiating it" from the 787-8, and when Airbus made the changes to the A350-1000, QR roundly criticised them for doing so.

Always goes to show "Watch the actions, not the words".
I'll keep watching here for EK's follow-on order for the A3510's "they don't want"  

On a side note, as we see more defections from the A350-800 to the bigger planes, I can't help thinking that in retrospect, Airbus would have been better optimising the two bigger A350's together, and left the A358 market to "A330NEO's"

I wonder what they'll do going forward...

Rgds


User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 30855 posts, RR: 86
Reply 7, posted (1 year 8 months 2 weeks 6 days 16 hours ago) and read 15015 times:
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Quoting astuteman (Reply 6):
On a side note, as we see more defections from the A350-800 to the bigger planes, I can't help thinking that in retrospect, Airbus would have been better optimising the two bigger A350's together, and left the A358 market to "A330NEO's"

I wonder what they'll do going forward...

I think we're seeing it now with the HGW A330s.



More and more I feel the A350-800 has lost the battle against the 787-8 and 787-9. If Airbus has come to the same conclusion, then scrapping it to save $1 billion is not an imprudent move, IMO. And by offering HGW A330s now while they have the advantage in availability, then they're also bringing in billions in extra revenues.

I know some have claimed that Airbus cannot leave a gap between the A321-200 and the A350-900, but I'd argue they can. The 787 has 838 orders, of which 523 are for the 787-8. With this latest order conversion, the A350-800 is now below 100 frames. So the market clearly seems to favor the 787 platform for sub-250 seat twin-engine widebodies. With the market expressing strong favor for the A350-900 and improving favor for the A350-1000, those are the frames Airbus should be concentrating resources and production slots on - especially if Boeing is preparing a HGW 787-10 to directly take on the A350-900, as it now appears may be the case.


And it's not like the A330 as a platform will be dead. Like the 767, I expect it to soldier on as a dedicated freighter (these new MTOW boosts help the freighter model even more than they do the passenger) with a new-build A330-300F likely being announced before the end of the decade.


User currently onlineastuteman From United Kingdom, joined Jan 2005, 9997 posts, RR: 96
Reply 8, posted (1 year 8 months 2 weeks 6 days 15 hours ago) and read 14884 times:
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Quoting Stitch (Reply 7):
I know some have claimed that Airbus cannot leave a gap between the A321-200 and the A350-900, but I'd argue they can. The 787 has 838 orders, of which 523 are for the 787-8. With this latest order conversion, the A350-800 is now below 100 frames. So the market clearly seems to favor the 787 platform for sub-250 seat twin-engine widebodies

The trouble is, I think that is because Airbus's "line-up" at this size hasn't been as coherent as it is at A350-900 or -1000 size.

I'll almost guarantee Airbus won't leave the 787-8 alone.
Which either means
a) an A330NEO, or
b)a very heavily optimised and re-designed A350-800

And whilst my heart prefers the former, my head votes for the latter.

And if the "250 seater" offering becomes sufficiently de-coupled from the A350-900 and A350-1000, I can't help thinking that at some point in about a decade or so's time, we'll see upgrades of these bigger frames launched that a) restore the commonality between the two, and b) offer better growth potential

Only speculating though. Hence my question

rgds


User currently offlinekaitak From Ireland, joined Aug 1999, 12427 posts, RR: 37
Reply 9, posted (1 year 8 months 2 weeks 6 days 15 hours ago) and read 14700 times:

What's also interesting is that only very recently, Ali Al Baker indicated an interest in the 787-10. Wonder how this would fit into QR's fleet plans and what missions it might do that a 359/10 wouldn't do so well. And let's face it, if they have -8s and -10s, they'll definitely have -9s at some stage.

Looking down the road, we could see a QR with:

4-8 A380s (even though these have been "long fingered", I fully expect to see QR operate them)
20-30 777-300ERs (likely to be a customer for the 777-9X)
37 A350-1000
43 A350-900
? 787-10
20 787-9
40 787-8 (I would expect a significant number of the -8 orders to go to -9s, replacing both the 332/333)
? A321 NEO
? A320 NEO
? Bombardier CS300

I haven't forgotten the 777-200LR, but I expect these to be replaced by the 789 or A359.


User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 30855 posts, RR: 86
Reply 10, posted (1 year 8 months 2 weeks 6 days 15 hours ago) and read 14676 times:
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Quoting astuteman (Reply 8):
I'll almost guarantee Airbus won't leave the 787-8 alone.

I was under the impression not leaving the 787-8 alone was why Airbus has been offering all these weight improvements for the A330-200 and A330-300.



Even the staunchest A350-800 customers don't want the plane before 2016 - and with speculation the A350-800 EIS could be pushed back even farther to ensure the A350-1000 meets it's EIS date - then we could see the plane delayed until 2018.

And by 2018 Boeing should have cleared most of their 787 production backlog and the 787-8s and 787-9s available for delivery in that timeframe will only have improved thanks to structural Block Points and engine PiPs. Airbus could arguably have to come up with a "very heavily optimized design" just to be competitive.

If you believe the pundits, Boeing has't had an offering in the ~200-seat market between 1995 and 2005 because the 767-400ER was a flop against the A330-200. And the A330-300 effectively ended sales of the 777-200 in 1998 and put the 777-200ER to bed a little over a decade later.

But Boeing still sold 126 767-300 freighters and is closing in on 700 combined 777-200LR and 777-300ER sales so I'd argue they did alright.

If Airbus no longer has an offering in the sub-250 seat market at the end of the decade, I believe they will do alright from sales of the A330-200F, the A330-300F, the A350-900 and A350-1000.


User currently offlineTP313 From Portugal, joined Nov 2001, 260 posts, RR: 9
Reply 11, posted (1 year 8 months 2 weeks 6 days 14 hours ago) and read 14411 times:

Quoting astuteman (Reply 8):
I'll almost guarantee Airbus won't leave the 787-8 alone.
Which either means
a) an A330NEO, or
b)a very heavily optimised and re-designed A350-800

And whilst my heart prefers the former, my head votes for the latter.

I agree that a "straight NEO" will not be very plausible, but...

A rewinged 330 + New Engine might be a possibility. And no I'm not talking about a 350 mk I, for such composite wing would be scaled down (slightly smaller than the 787 wing) and optimized for sectors below 7000 nm.

To target the same market with a 350 would mean a new landing gear, new horizontal and verical tails and possibly a new wingbox, besides the rewing.

[Edited 2012-12-03 09:53:22]

User currently offlineRubberJungle From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 12, posted (1 year 8 months 2 weeks 6 days 14 hours ago) and read 14238 times:

Quoting astuteman (Reply 6):
Gads! That was kept very quiet!

Not by everyone...

http://www.flightglobal.com/news/art...ps-a350-800-for-larger-900-378997/

http://www.flightglobal.com/news/art...pped-to-include-more-1000s-379015/


User currently offlineKarelXWB From Netherlands, joined Jul 2012, 11179 posts, RR: 33
Reply 13, posted (1 year 8 months 2 weeks 6 days 14 hours ago) and read 13911 times:



Quote:
And by 2018 Boeing should have cleared most of their 787 production backlog and the 787-8s and 787-9s available for delivery in that timeframe will only have improved thanks to structural Block Points and engine PiPs. Airbus could arguably have to come up with a "very heavily optimized design" just to be competitive.

I'm not sure if Airbus should spent that much money and recources to re-design the A350-800. I can see the 787-8 orders drying up - just like the 767-200 - by the end of the decade because airlines are taking the bigger planes (787-9/10).

[Edited 2012-12-03 10:37:09]


Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity. And I'm not sure about the universe.
User currently offlineairbazar From United States of America, joined Sep 2003, 8282 posts, RR: 10
Reply 14, posted (1 year 8 months 2 weeks 6 days 13 hours ago) and read 13025 times:

Quoting astuteman (Reply 8):
And if the "250 seater" offering becomes sufficiently de-coupled from the A350-900 and A350-1000, I can't help thinking that at some point in about a decade or so's time, we'll see upgrades of these bigger frames launched that a) restore the commonality between the two, and b) offer better growth potential

At this point it makes no sense doing anything about the "250 seater". I see Airbus solving that issue eventually with an entirely new narrowbody lineup. I am convinced that the future of the "250 seater" for Airbus is as a narrowbody medium haul airplane.


User currently offlineEddieDude From Mexico, joined Nov 2003, 7566 posts, RR: 43
Reply 15, posted (1 year 8 months 2 weeks 6 days 11 hours ago) and read 11626 times:

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 13):
I'm not sure if Airbus should spent that much money and recources to re-design the A350-800. I can see the 787-8 orders drying up - just like the 767-200 - by the end of the decade because airlines are taking the bigger planes (787-9/10).

Does anyone have any insight as to what airlines that have ordered A358s expected to do? I think there are three distinct possibilities for Airbus customers that have ordered A358s:

a. Switch their orders to A359s.
b. Switch their orders to the newly offered enhanced A332s and A333s.
c. Cancel their orders and order 789s.

According to Wiki, SU, AZ, OZ, AWAS, HA, ILFC, TU, US and IY have outstanding orders for the A358.



Next flights: MEX-GRU (AM 77E), GRU-GIG (JJ A320), SDU-CGH (G3 73H), GRU-MEX (JJ A332).
User currently offlineDocLightning From United States of America, joined Nov 2005, 19495 posts, RR: 58
Reply 16, posted (1 year 8 months 2 weeks 6 days 11 hours ago) and read 11518 times:

Quoting Stitch (Reply 7):
More and more I feel the A350-800 has lost the battle against the 787-8 and 787-9. If Airbus has come to the same conclusion, then scrapping it to save $1 billion is not an imprudent move, IMO. And by offering HGW A330s now while they have the advantage in availability, then they're also bringing in billions in extra revenues.

But have they sunk too many costs already? After all, they are already developing the A350. The A358 is already being assembled, no? I doubt that canceling the 358 at this point is going to be a long-term winning strategy.


User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 30855 posts, RR: 86
Reply 17, posted (1 year 8 months 2 weeks 6 days 11 hours ago) and read 11127 times:
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Quoting DocLightning (Reply 16):
But have they sunk too many costs already? After all, they are already developing the A350. The A358 is already being assembled, no? I doubt that canceling the 358 at this point is going to be a long-term winning strategy.

Airbus should be only producing parts for the A350-900 at this time as even long-lead items for the A350-800 should still be years away from starting production as the current EIS is 2016 and it may yet slip even farther (to favor the A350-1000).

Engineering resource expenditures should also have been minimal, since you're just removing frames from the CATIA model and shortening up the cable runs.   (I jest, but probably not by much.)

So at the moment, Airbus has likely spent very little on line items that are unique to the A350-800 (as opposed to being shared with the A350-900).


User currently offlineEPA001 From Netherlands, joined Sep 2006, 4721 posts, RR: 39
Reply 18, posted (1 year 8 months 2 weeks 6 days 10 hours ago) and read 10716 times:
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Quoting Stitch (Reply 2):
Not really. QR announced the plans like a month ago.

I have missed that.

Quoting astuteman (Reply 6):
Gads! That was kept very quiet! Or else I've fallen asleep at the wheel.

Probably that happened to me as well.  .

Quoting astuteman (Reply 6):
In which case that's probably because I got bored of the (recent) threads telling us how dissatisfied the Gulf carriers are with the A350-1000 

And now we start seeing it picking up momentum quite rapidly from blue-chip customers. Customers who at first seemed sceptical about the design changes now convert for 17 more or these A351's.  .

Quoting astuteman (Reply 6):
I'll keep watching here for EK's follow-on order for the A3510's "they don't want"

No doubt within a year we will see that happing too. Probably at Paris?

Quoting RubberJungle (Reply 12):
Not by everyone...

http://www.flightglobal.com/news/art...ps-a350-800-for-larger-900-378997/

http://www.flightglobal.com/news/art...9015/

Thanks for posting these. I really have overlooked those news reports.

[Edited 2012-12-03 14:05:20]

User currently offlineBigJKU From United States of America, joined Feb 2007, 877 posts, RR: 12
Reply 19, posted (1 year 8 months 2 weeks 6 days 10 hours ago) and read 10370 times:

Quoting astuteman (Reply 8):
The trouble is, I think that is because Airbus's "line-up" at this size hasn't been as coherent as it is at A350-900 or -1000 size.
Quoting astuteman (Reply 8):
I'll almost guarantee Airbus won't leave the 787-8 alone.
Which either means
a) an A330NEO, or
b)a very heavily optimised and re-designed A350-800

Airbus is faced with some interesting choices from my POV that result from the attempt to cover the 777 and 787 with the A350. I honestly think they are going to be forced to leave the 787 bottom end alone in that market because too many potential operators of aircraft in that size range have already bought and I don't see the R&D cost of optimizing A350 (shrinks are harder than stretches usually) working out financially. You can't stretch it or shrink it again after all.

I am curious how the top end of the market will work out for both framers. Right now I would say Boeing has an open top end (above the 787-10) to replace the 777 and 747. I think the 747-8 is what it is and Boeing won't hesitate to run right over it if they have to. I think the discussion of increasing 787-10 MTOW probably relates to that. I would think that if Boeing can re-do the MLG and possibly tweak the wing of the 787-10 in a way that let them do an 11 I would not see a need for the 777x to even exist. For Boeing I think this discussions is almost wholly about seeing where they can push the 787-10 to and where that allows them to set the 777x (or replacement) baseline for whatever occupies their portfolio above the 787.

Ideally I would think Boeing would like to be able to baseline its top of the market offering at say 400-425 seats with a stretch that gets you into the 500ish range on a very large twin (assuming you don't do anything radical). That would let them chop away at the bottom of the A380 market and basically corner the 77W replacement market with the carriers I would think.

Airbus on the other hand has a closed top end of the market in the A388 and presumably a stretch model of that aircraft they won't mess with so anything they would do would get no bigger than 450ish seats I would think. It leaves them with two "gaps" that you can really only fit one plane variant into 250ish and 400ish. I would think the best way to address that would be to stretch the A351 and be done with it and just leave the gap at the 250ish area. Spend the money on making the A389 get airborne and what I assume will be new narrow body aircraft that will follow the NEO and MAX.


User currently offlineairmagnac From Germany, joined Apr 2012, 307 posts, RR: 44
Reply 20, posted (1 year 8 months 2 weeks 6 days 10 hours ago) and read 10124 times:

Quoting Stitch (Reply 7):
I feel the A350-800 has lost the battle against the 787-8 and 787-9. If Airbus has come to the same conclusion, then scrapping it to save $1 billion is not an imprudent move, IMO

I know the A350-800 order book is seeing slow attrition, but IIRC there are still over 90 orders, which is still quite respectable. I feel the crucial point will be how well Airbus manage the production ramp-up of the -900.
If all goes well and recurrent costs remain low, thanks to the "shrink" decision these production savings should be passed on to the -800 and Airbus could still make money on it, even with a specific $1 billion investment (if that's a realistic number). Now if the A359 production process is once again a total cluster f***, adding a second model in the mess is the most certain way to make things worse...
Production seems to be progressing rather well so far, and if MSN1 goes through FAL initial testing and first flight by next summer without major hiccups, this should give a rather positive indication to Airbus management to continue with the -800. And with a 3 year margin to EIS, which should be enough to launch production of long lead time items.

Additonnally, IMO this "simple shrink" is some kind of stop gap measure to buy some time against the 788, rather than a definitive answer to market needs. Depending on where Airbus sees itself and assesses the market after 2020, I guess they'll make a decision around 2015 on how best to proceed (a new optimized -800 ?).
So while I do suspect that Airbus people are working hard to figure out how to position this -800 version on the market, I doubt they'll cancel it. IMO, of course  



One "oh shit" can erase a thousand "attaboys".
User currently offlineSonomaFlyer From United States of America, joined Apr 2010, 1761 posts, RR: 0
Reply 21, posted (1 year 8 months 2 weeks 6 days 10 hours ago) and read 10016 times:
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With respect to the 388/389, replace the engines with the RR engines used on the 359's and add tweaks the engineers I'm sure have filed away to further refine the aerodynamics and reduce a bit of weight? Would that not give this new a/c the range to do DXB to SFO/LAX with full loads?

User currently offlineferpe From France, joined Nov 2010, 2803 posts, RR: 59
Reply 22, posted (1 year 8 months 2 weeks 6 days 2 hours ago) and read 7420 times:

Quoting airmagnac (Reply 20):
So while I do suspect that Airbus people are working hard to figure out how to position this -800 version on the market, I doubt they'll cancel it. IMO, of course

John Lehay sees it the same way:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-1...as-airlines-favor-bigger-jets.html


"While Qatar’s decision today to almost double its A350-1000 backlog to 37 while dropping an order for 20 smaller -800s highlights a trend toward larger jets, scrapping the baseline plane would leave Airbus vulnerable to the similar 787-9, Chief Operating Officer John Leahy said in an interview. "

The main question will be if it will come before or after -1000, if the -900 testing shows it to be a no brainer and a good performer (it does what is promised) then before, otherwise after.



Non French in France
User currently offlineferpe From France, joined Nov 2010, 2803 posts, RR: 59
Reply 23, posted (1 year 8 months 2 weeks 6 days 1 hour ago) and read 6991 times:

Here a quote from Johns boss from yesterday:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/...rbus-bregier-idUSBRE8B20Q720121203

He says these changes are to give them more time to optimize the -800, what he can't say (because they are not through with all the customer negotiations yet) is that this is WIP to get the -800 behind the -1000 in the EIS order so they can focus on the -1000 and then make the -800 as competitive as possible with the toolbox the -900 and -1000 will give them. Once all customers are finished negotiating what they want to do with their -800 slots the real news will be brought out that the -800 trails the -1000.



Non French in France
User currently offlineKC135TopBoom From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 12134 posts, RR: 51
Reply 24, posted (1 year 8 months 2 weeks 5 days 20 hours ago) and read 5209 times:

Sorry, but I still don't see a need for Airbus to offer an A-330-300F. They already have a planned A-350-900F on the books, that most seem to have forgotten about here. They also have a proposed A-359R model, too. Has that changed?

IIRC the A-358 is scheduled to EIS about a year before the A-3510 does. Is that going to change since now the -10 has more orders than the -8? By my count the A-3510 now has sme 105 orders and the A-358 has dropped to about 95 orders, is that about right?

The A-359F is suppose to compete directly wqith the B-777F, and also finally try to kill off the B-767F, which is still getting orders. The A-359R is suppose to compete directly with the B-777L. The B-77F has about 130 total orders, including the 55, or so yet to be delivered, the B-77L has about 60 orders, including about 4-5 yet to be delivered. The slow selling A-332 has some 51 orders with about 35 still on back-order. I don't know how many A-359Rs and A-359Fs have been ordered.


25 Post contains images EPA001 : I guess you mean the A330F? The A332 still has about 100 frames on back-order. It is not really selling slowly.
26 zeke : Its a P2F program. No Nothing to do with the 767F, the 767F will kill itself. None.
27 bjorn14 : QR better be careful their fleet planning will soon look like SK's. I also have to wonder if this Al Baker's way of jabbing at Boeing.
28 ytz : What a ridiculous fleet mix. I wonder why they need that many types. In AB's shoes, I would've taken up a few cheap A330s or leased them. Gone all in
29 Post contains images EPA001 : Unlike QR, EK already has B77W's and A380's to open up new routes in Europe, and elsewhere. .
30 kaitak : There aren't that many types for what is going to be quite a large carrier: A380, 777 (and later, 777X), A350, 787 and A320NEO, albeit with various d
31 Daysleeper : The 767F is dead, prior to the FedEx order they had managed to sell a staggering 2 frames in 5 years. Slow? In comparison to what? It's taken Boeing
32 Stitch : I expect FX and 5X to both place follow-on orders to replace the remainder of their A300-600F, A310-200F and A310-300F fleets.
33 zeke : A 767F does little to improve the economics provided by those aircraft, I doubt Boeing will provide the same discounts unless they need to keep the p
34 Stitch : Even so, they eventually need to be replaced and the 767-300F does offer more total volume. Yes, it can't interline the same cans as the Airbus platf
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