Sponsor Message:
Civil Aviation Forum
My Starred Topics | Profile | New Topic | Forum Index | Help | Search 
Why Has The RJ Market Faltered?  
User currently offlineRussianJet From Belgium, joined Jul 2007, 7703 posts, RR: 21
Posted (1 year 9 months 2 weeks 3 days 12 hours ago) and read 6872 times:
Support Airliners.net - become a First Class Member!

Please don't flame, but I fully admit this is based largely on my perception rather than solid research, but bear with me.

It seems to me that there is less and less interest in anything much under 150 seats. Now, I understand that in many situations the economics just make more sense for a bigger airframe, but surely there are enough 'necessary' smaller, thinner routes around the world to keep the smaller pax jet market buoyant?

Embraer I hear in another thread are not selling as many smaller planes as they used to, the Superjet doesn't seem to be going big guns, and I don't hear an awful lot about the Mitsubishi project. Smaller than that, it is my impression that props like the Q400 and ATR-72 are doing ok, but there doesn't seem to be much interest in smaller jets any more, such as the CRJ series and similar. What are the principle reasons for that?

Are my thoughts broadly correct? If not, what are the primary developments I am missing? Are aircraft like the ERJ145 a thing of the past?

Surely there is some demand in many larger countries for smaller city pairings that are quite far apart, maybe outside the comfortable range for the props I referred to, and for which a fair number of pax would pay a premium?

Sorry if it all sounds a bit naive, but I am no expert in these matters, but am interested to know why this once seemingly large sector or aviation seems to be in decline, contributing to more boring skies full of A319/A320 and B737.

As ever, grateful for thoughts.


✈ Every strike of the hammer is a blow against the enemy. ✈
44 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlinePHX787 From Japan, joined Mar 2012, 7560 posts, RR: 18
Reply 1, posted (1 year 9 months 2 weeks 3 days 12 hours ago) and read 6854 times:

A perfect question, don't worry about flamers  

Here's my take-

1) Pax hate them. The CRJ- 50 seater is uncomfortable as hell and nobody likes flying them. I see people all the time trying their damndest to avoid flying the CRJ-200 on their legs.

2) Fuel Efficiency is unheard of on the 50-seaters. The fuel-burn per seat per person is really horrible. Economics are poor.

3) The mx costs are skyrocketing these days



次は、渋谷、渋谷。出口は、右側です。電車とホームの間は広く開いておりますので、足元に注意下さい。
User currently offlineAA737-823 From United States of America, joined Mar 2000, 5821 posts, RR: 11
Reply 2, posted (1 year 9 months 2 weeks 3 days 12 hours ago) and read 6849 times:

Cost, cost, cost, cost, COST.
The costs of flying a 50-seat object through the air at 550 MPH are too high, unless you can find a way to fuel it off the passengers' farts.

The Mitsubishi is years delayed, much as the 787 and 380 were.
The Sukhoi is, evidently, a wretched piece of machinery.
The products coming out of China aren't being taken seriously by the market.

Smaller, thinner routes in the developed world are being pushed out of the market by higher prices; as the carriers in the USA raise fares to secondary and tertiary cities, people just choose to drive further to a hub.

As far as props, the reliability issues of the Q400 have driven everyone away, apparently, though Bombardier swears they're looking into it.... still.
The ATR seems to be doing pretty well.

The sweet spot for airliners is clearly in the 737/A320 size class. And even that class has been growing; while the 737-300 was immensely popular, the comparable -700 isn't, while creep up to the -800 and -9ER is quite evident. Similarly, the 319 has done pretty well, but we're starting to see upward trends toward 320's and 321's. What was previously considered a handicap to the A321 (namely, that it wasn't as capable as a 757) is now considered a blessing.


User currently offlineXFSUgimpLB41X From United States of America, joined Aug 2000, 4200 posts, RR: 37
Reply 3, posted (1 year 9 months 2 weeks 3 days 12 hours ago) and read 6823 times:

The airlines extracted all the cuts they could get out of mainline pilots via the RJs... now the level of inefficiency of the airplanes and outsourced product is coming back to bite.


Chicks dig winglets.
User currently offlineRussianJet From Belgium, joined Jul 2007, 7703 posts, RR: 21
Reply 4, posted (1 year 9 months 2 weeks 3 days 12 hours ago) and read 6815 times:
Support Airliners.net - become a First Class Member!

How about in countries such as Russia and China? People don't always have the option of driving to the nearest hub, and costs aren't necessarily such a big deal in some respects? Also, routes may be subsidised. Also, in all markets, surely some of the expense is offset when connections are taken?


✈ Every strike of the hammer is a blow against the enemy. ✈
User currently offlineLHCVG From United States of America, joined May 2009, 1576 posts, RR: 2
Reply 5, posted (1 year 9 months 2 weeks 3 days 12 hours ago) and read 6764 times:

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 1):
1) Pax hate them. The CRJ- 50 seater is uncomfortable as hell and nobody likes flying them. I see people all the time trying their damndest to avoid flying the CRJ-200 on their legs.

That's a bit overstated - and that's not to flame but to emphasize the latter two points you make here. It's far and away the simple economics of 50-seat flying (which includes both mx and CASM), and passenger preference is a DISTANT factor. Even in those cases where a carrier deploys large, 2-class RJs against someone else' CRJs on a route specifically to compete with a superior product, it's to garner increased revenue and higher-yielding pax more so than alleviating customer complaints about CRJs. Again, I'm not criticizing you in this case, but the pax hate for CRJs is a much weaker argument, because airlines would still fly them in droves if there were money to be made.


User currently offlineFabo From Slovakia, joined Aug 2005, 1219 posts, RR: 1
Reply 6, posted (1 year 9 months 2 weeks 3 days 12 hours ago) and read 6727 times:

IMHO, RJs were, more or less, just a marketing gimmick. Airlines traded turboprop efficiency for the jet appeal. Pax often consider props "old technology".
To many pax, a 732 seems more attractive than newest 72-600, because it is a jet. Then at the time turboprops tended to be quite uncomfortable regarding noise and vibrations.

However, with rising fuel costs, this came to bite the airlines, and with DHC-8Q400 even speed advantage is negligent. Plus newer prop airliners are quieter and even more fuel economical.



The light at the end of tunnel turn out to be a lighted sing saying NO EXIT
User currently offlineADent From United States of America, joined Dec 2006, 1384 posts, RR: 2
Reply 7, posted (1 year 9 months 2 weeks 3 days 12 hours ago) and read 6696 times:

With $3+ per gallon of gas the 50 seaters are not very efficient anymore.

The 70 seaters are maxed out due to scope clauses at a couple of airlines.

AA isn't buying anything, and neither is sCO while scope clauses are being worked out.


User currently onlineFlighty From United States of America, joined Apr 2007, 8540 posts, RR: 2
Reply 8, posted (1 year 9 months 2 weeks 3 days 12 hours ago) and read 6698 times:

Quoting AA737-823 (Reply 2):
Cost, cost, cost, cost, COST.
The costs of flying a 50-seat object through the air at 550 MPH are too high, unless you can find a way to fuel it off the passengers' farts.

Cost, precisely. The 50 seater is the cheapest way to transport 50 people and their bags. Cheapest, cheapest, cheapest. So, it does have some role in the world (not a huge role). But it is the best and cheapest at doing one particular job -- a job that happens 1,000s of times per day.


User currently offlinelightsaber From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 13121 posts, RR: 100
Reply 9, posted (1 year 9 months 2 weeks 3 days 12 hours ago) and read 6669 times:
Support Airliners.net - become a First Class Member!

There were too many RJs bought when the per hour labor cost difference between outsourced product and in house product was too high.

As already noted, fuel. RJs were great at $35/bbl oil. With oil oscillating at $70/bbl to $140/bbl, there isn't much relief.

There have also been a number of mergers which have allowed consolidation of hubs on larger gauge aircraft. That has reduced the number of cities that will pay $1,400 fares. People have discovered its cheaper to drive 2 hours to a more competitive airport.

There is a market for RJs, just not in the quantity out there. As Fabo alludes, turboprops are much more competitive than the product offered in the early 1990s.

Quoting XFSUgimpLB41X (Reply 3):
The airlines extracted all the cuts they could get out of mainline pilots via the RJs... now the level of inefficiency of the airplanes and outsourced product is coming back to bite.

Some. Some is the collapse of the relative costs and cuts in RASM from secondary airports.

I predict the MRJ should do well. But that is a larger RJ. It is all about reducing the CASM to stay competitive.

Lightsaber



Societies that achieve a critical mass of ideas achieve self sustaining growth; others stagnate.
User currently offlineFreshSide3 From United States of America, joined Nov 2012, 213 posts, RR: 0
Reply 10, posted (1 year 9 months 2 weeks 3 days 11 hours ago) and read 6651 times:

Quoting RussianJet (Reply 4):
How about in countries such as Russia and China? People don't always have the option of driving to the nearest hub, and costs aren't necessarily such a big deal in some respects? Also, routes may be subsidised. Also, in all markets, surely some of the expense is offset when connections are taken?

I fly to Ukraine frequently, and need to get a city called Mariupol. It's a bit over 400,000 population. They have an airport(MPW), but currently has no service, international OR domestic. Next closest useful airport is Donetsk(DOK). So, typically I take SEA-ORD-MUC, and then take a RJ on LH for a three hour flight, and then about 1:40 by ground to get to MPW. Why?

I could go SEA-FRA-KBP, go to downtown Kiev, and then take ground transportation straight to the city of Mariupol. Problem is, the bus from Kiev is about 8 hours, and the train is close to 13. Done both before.

Needless to say, the three hours on the RJ isn't so bad after all, compared to the alternatives. My guess, for some cities in Russia, there are similar types of cities with similar situations.


User currently offlinePHX787 From Japan, joined Mar 2012, 7560 posts, RR: 18
Reply 11, posted (1 year 9 months 2 weeks 3 days 9 hours ago) and read 6472 times:

Quoting LHCVG (Reply 5):
Again, I'm not criticizing you in this case, but the pax hate for CRJs is a much weaker argument, because airlines would still fly them in droves if there were money to be made.

I understand your argument, and maybe for organizing purposes I should've put that one at the end. I never really intended on organizing them in order of importance, because I think everyone agrees it is one thing that is bringing the RJ down:

Quoting AA737-823 (Reply 2):
Cost, cost, cost, cost, COST.
Quoting Flighty (Reply 8):
Cost, precisely.
Quoting XFSUgimpLB41X (Reply 3):
level of inefficiency
Quoting ADent (Reply 7):
With $3+ per gallon of gas the 50 seaters are not very efficient anymore.



次は、渋谷、渋谷。出口は、右側です。電車とホームの間は広く開いておりますので、足元に注意下さい。
User currently offlineCRJ900 From Norway, joined Jun 2004, 2191 posts, RR: 1
Reply 12, posted (1 year 9 months 2 weeks 3 days 4 hours ago) and read 6294 times:
Support Airliners.net - become a First Class Member!

What about 88-seat CRJ900 and E175s? If they have roughly the same operating costs as the 50-seater jets but an additional 38 seats to spread those costs over, doesn't that make them fairly efficient?

FlyBE has ordered a lot of 88-seat E175s - I doubt they would have done that if they were grossly inefficient...?



Come, fly the prevailing winds with me
User currently offlineLHCVG From United States of America, joined May 2009, 1576 posts, RR: 2
Reply 13, posted (1 year 9 months 2 weeks 3 days 4 hours ago) and read 6224 times:

Quoting CRJ900 (Reply 12):

Larger RJs tend to be much more efficient, not to mention their much greater capabilities make them useful on a much larger portion of the route map. There was a comparison of operating costs a while back that showed CR7/9 leases being not much more than what a CRJ goes for, but they carry 50% more pax much further and include F cabins to bring additional revenue. They still cost a little more, but the difference was small enough that the cost per pax was significantly lower. Plus, the relative efficiency starts to increase dramatically when you get up into that 88+ seat range, where if you can't fill a mainline 319/735/73G, you can do the same job (up to mid-con or better range, 9-12 F pax) with a much lighter plane that has much lower operating and crew costs.

Another aspect is the break-even load factor, which others can comment specifically on, but that tends to scale more or less in line with size. A CRJ break-even l/f is extremely high, whereas widebodies can be down around 50%.

[Edited 2012-12-05 04:20:53]

User currently offlinesweair From Sweden, joined Nov 2011, 1823 posts, RR: 0
Reply 14, posted (1 year 9 months 2 weeks 3 days 3 hours ago) and read 6196 times:

The battle heats up in the 737-700/A319 market going forward. A and B are selling very few of these in the future. CS100/300, superjet among others are coming to cover that niche. What will A+B do, will they give up on this segment or will they fight back? But this is hardly regional space?

User currently offlineLHCVG From United States of America, joined May 2009, 1576 posts, RR: 2
Reply 15, posted (1 year 9 months 2 weeks 3 days 3 hours ago) and read 6157 times:

Quoting sweair (Reply 14):
The battle heats up in the 737-700/A319 market going forward. A and B are selling very few of these in the future. CS100/300, superjet among others are coming to cover that niche. What will A+B do, will they give up on this segment or will they fight back? But this is hardly regional space?

From the looks of things, they've all but ceded the sub-150 (and certainly sub-130) seat ranges going forward. For instance, the 737MAX has been re-centered around 150+ seats, in order to make more headroom for top-end range and capacity at the expense of viability as a 120-seat variant. The regional makers are now moving upmarket into that 110-130 seat range to fill the void.

[Edited 2012-12-05 04:44:11]

User currently offlineRussianJet From Belgium, joined Jul 2007, 7703 posts, RR: 21
Reply 16, posted (1 year 9 months 2 weeks 3 days 2 hours ago) and read 6034 times:
Support Airliners.net - become a First Class Member!

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 11):

I understand your argument, and maybe for organizing purposes I should've put that one at the end. I never really intended on organizing them in order of importance, because I think everyone agrees it is one thing that is bringing the RJ down:

Surely the question of whether passengers choose or like to fly on certain types *if* there is any conceivable alternative is a valid part of the cost equation?

Quoting sweair (Reply 14):
What will A+B do, will they give up on this segment or will they fight back? But this is hardly regional space?

I think it has long been established in other discussions that A+B are quite content to stay out of that bloodbath of a sector, given that they have their hands full with other, much more profitable projects. Having said that, are there any concepts from them out there for sub-150-seat frames?



✈ Every strike of the hammer is a blow against the enemy. ✈
User currently offlineFreshSide3 From United States of America, joined Nov 2012, 213 posts, RR: 0
Reply 17, posted (1 year 9 months 2 weeks 3 days 2 hours ago) and read 5993 times:

Quoting RussianJet (Reply 16):
Surely the question of whether passengers choose or like to fly on certain types *if* there is any conceivable alternative is a valid part of the cost equation?

On other threads, there have been valid justifications of why United is better off using RJs on SEA-LAX. I can understand that, but.......bottom line is, the Premier travelers hate them, and are mostly taking AS(who have more comfortable 737s) on this route nowadays.


User currently offlinena From Germany, joined Dec 1999, 10735 posts, RR: 9
Reply 18, posted (1 year 9 months 2 weeks 3 days 2 hours ago) and read 5965 times:

Looking at the fuel/km/pax ratio, RJs are generally uncompetitive, the RJs using not just 10 or 20 percent more fuel which would be the difference in favour of a A380 against a 777, but multiple times. If memory serves me right, the now retired CRJ200 of LH used almost three times more fuel than the A380 per pax. Totally unacceptable these days. Its so much that in the latest LH "Balance" reports the specific fuel consumption of RJs isnt mentioned anymore.

User currently offlineRussianJet From Belgium, joined Jul 2007, 7703 posts, RR: 21
Reply 19, posted (1 year 9 months 2 weeks 3 days 1 hour ago) and read 5923 times:
Support Airliners.net - become a First Class Member!

Quoting FreshSide3 (Reply 17):
On other threads, there have been valid justifications of why United is better off using RJs on SEA-LAX. I can understand that, but.......bottom line is, the Premier travelers hate them, and are mostly taking AS(who have more comfortable 737s) on this route nowadays.

Are such routes really so few? On a point I raised earlier which doesn't seem to have been picked up, how about the off-set in costs from connecting premium pax? I accept what you say about how many high-paying premium pax don't like them, but on routes where there is no alternative AS 737 for example?



✈ Every strike of the hammer is a blow against the enemy. ✈
User currently offlineSavannahMark From United States of America, joined Dec 2012, 45 posts, RR: 0
Reply 20, posted (1 year 9 months 2 weeks 3 days 1 hour ago) and read 5906 times:

Guess this topic pretty much explains the reason for all those parked ERJ-135s.

User currently offlineFreshSide3 From United States of America, joined Nov 2012, 213 posts, RR: 0
Reply 21, posted (1 year 9 months 2 weeks 3 days 1 hour ago) and read 5843 times:

Quoting RussianJet (Reply 19):
Are such routes really so few? On a point I raised earlier which doesn't seem to have been picked up, how about the off-set in costs from connecting premium pax? I accept what you say about how many high-paying premium pax don't like them, but on routes where there is no alternative SA)">AS 737 for example?
SA)">UA has not only gone to small planes, but also, the first UAX trip from SEA-LAX does not leave until 11am. Not really a convenient schedule for the business traveler. And one of the trips is a single-class cabin, so even if you wanted to buy first, it doesn't exist.

Virgin America does have SEA-LAX using an Airbus, too......but no connection with any of the other US carriers. You can't check bags onto other carriers' flights (particularly international)out of LAX due to no agreements. You don't get reciprocal miles, either.....and SA)">AS is a partner with both SA)">AA and SA)">DL, not to mention other international carriers.One of the flights on Virgin America also is a no-op on two days of the week(I think TU/SA, but correct me it I'm wrong).

SA)">AS also offers LGB, BUR, SNA, and SEA.

There's more to it, but I think this is enough to give you an idea of how wrong the SEA-LAX RJ scenerio is on SA)">UA.

[Edited 2012-12-05 06:54:50]

[Edited 2012-12-05 06:55:38]

User currently offlineenilria From Canada, joined Feb 2008, 7191 posts, RR: 13
Reply 22, posted (1 year 9 months 2 weeks 3 days 1 hour ago) and read 5815 times:

OIL PRICES

You can lock the thread now


User currently offlineRussianJet From Belgium, joined Jul 2007, 7703 posts, RR: 21
Reply 23, posted (1 year 9 months 2 weeks 3 days ago) and read 5712 times:
Support Airliners.net - become a First Class Member!

Quoting enilria (Reply 22):
OIL PRICES

You can lock the thread now

Well sure, clearly that was always going to be a huge factor - but I'm sure you are aware that markets are pretty diverse, particularly comparing different countries, and that there are a hell of a lot of other things to consider too.



✈ Every strike of the hammer is a blow against the enemy. ✈
User currently offlineNorthStarDC4M From Canada, joined Apr 2000, 3023 posts, RR: 36
Reply 24, posted (1 year 9 months 2 weeks 2 days 23 hours ago) and read 5645 times:
AIRLINERS.NET CREW
CHAT OPERATOR

RJs had their place where they made sense (60-120 min light feeder flying from hubs, where turboprops are time pressed and the loads are too light for 150+ seat mainline). The problem is in the US the majors moved them into EVERYTHING regional and even into mainline markets displacing the 100-150 seat class mainline 737/Dc9/MD80/A320/F100/etc with 2 or 3 50 seaters instead. It's this last bit that is backfiring now.

Delta is trying to move mainline back into the 100 seat range with the 717 purchase... but they have alot of RJ flying to shift as well.

It would seem to me though that the other majors are now stuck. They basically have to mix larger types and RJs on many previously mainline markets, and the costs of competition, fuel and all the associated financial tangle of the economy. But it really is their own doing in many ways:

AA dumped the F100 without replacing it.
United's smallest type is the 737-500 which is being retired, pmUA's smallest type was the A319.
USAirways smallest now is the A319 having just retired the 733...
Makes a big gap that RJs just aren't good at filling in all markets unfortunately.



Those who would give up Essential Liberty to purchase a little Temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety.
User currently offlinesweair From Sweden, joined Nov 2011, 1823 posts, RR: 0
Reply 25, posted (1 year 9 months 2 weeks 2 days 23 hours ago) and read 5918 times:

I flew a CRJ200 with Air Nostrum, ok my hair licked the ceiling but for a 40 minute flight it is ok, it is a nice ride, much sportier than 737/A320, you fell every movement of the frame. I got to feel a windy landing, damn those brakes bite hard  

User currently offlinemandala499 From Indonesia, joined Aug 2001, 6858 posts, RR: 75
Reply 26, posted (1 year 9 months 2 weeks 2 days 22 hours ago) and read 5818 times:

I'll add to:

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 1):
2) Fuel Efficiency is unheard of on the 50-seaters. The fuel-burn per seat per person is really horrible. Economics are poor.

Fuel cost per seat is about 1.75-2.5x on a 30-50 seater RJ comparing to a 738 or A320... depending on how you calculate.

I'll add another point:
CRJs and ERJs have to rely on pax revenue with no ticket price relief from cargo... coz they can't carry much of that when seats are full... mainliners however, can.

Once we go to 70seats and above, the numbers begin to look waaaaay friendlier.

Mandala499



When losing situational awareness, pray Cumulus Granitus isn't nearby !
User currently onlineFlighty From United States of America, joined Apr 2007, 8540 posts, RR: 2
Reply 27, posted (1 year 9 months 2 weeks 2 days 21 hours ago) and read 5881 times:

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 11):
because I think everyone agrees it is one thing that is bringing the RJ down:

Quoting AA737-823 (Reply 2):
Cost, cost, cost, cost, COST.

To be fair, no I wasn't agreeing. The CRJ200 or ERJ145 burns less fuel carrying 45 passengers than an A320 does carrying 45 passengers. Less than an E-175 carrying 45 passengers.

The CRJ200 is the cheapest, most fuel efficient solution for some market cases.


User currently onlineGoldenshield From United States of America, joined Jan 2001, 6042 posts, RR: 14
Reply 28, posted (1 year 9 months 2 weeks 2 days 21 hours ago) and read 5769 times:

Quoting na (Reply 18):
If memory serves me right, the now retired CRJ200 of LH used almost three times more fuel than the A380 per pax. Totally unacceptable these days.

Is it? It'd be even more unacceptable to send an A380 to do a CRJ's job.



Two all beef patties, special sauce, lettuce, cheese, pickles, onions on a sesame seed bun.
User currently offlineLHCVG From United States of America, joined May 2009, 1576 posts, RR: 2
Reply 29, posted (1 year 9 months 2 weeks 2 days 20 hours ago) and read 5226 times:

Quoting Flighty (Reply 27):
The CRJ200 is the cheapest, most fuel efficient solution for some market cases.

True. BUT, the number of those markets that remain viable continues to shrink as fuel stays high and/or rises further. It's not that there aren't markets which only support ~50 pax at a time and there isn't sufficient paid F demand to warrant using a large RJ or a mainliner. It's that more and more markets become marginal to losing propositions, and as CRJ fleets continue to shrink, the number of those marginal routes will dimish as carriers can park them. We're at the early stages of a paradigm shift in the industry where the 50-seat RJ is going to disappear and there is no clear, direct replacement that we've seen yet. There may be new 50-seat turboprops, or the 50-seat market may get bracketed between smaller props and larger props or large RJs, but either way that traditional RJ is out.


User currently onlinemaxpower1954 From United States of America, joined Sep 2008, 1097 posts, RR: 7
Reply 30, posted (1 year 9 months 2 weeks 2 days 20 hours ago) and read 5207 times:

Quoting NorthStarDC4M (Reply 24):
USAirways smallest now is the A319 having just retired the 733...

Mainline US Airways flies 20 E-190s, with 99 seats.


User currently offlineflashmeister From United States of America, joined Apr 2000, 2900 posts, RR: 6
Reply 31, posted (1 year 9 months 2 weeks 2 days 20 hours ago) and read 4991 times:
Support Airliners.net - become a First Class Member!

Quoting AA737-823 (Reply 2):
The Sukhoi is, evidently, a wretched piece of machinery.

Not disputing this, but just wondering where you've heard this -- other than the marketing tour incident, I haven't heard a lot about the performance of the SSJ. Any links?


User currently onlinefalstaff From United States of America, joined Jun 2006, 6103 posts, RR: 28
Reply 32, posted (1 year 9 months 2 weeks 2 days 19 hours ago) and read 4525 times:
Support Airliners.net - become a First Class Member!

Quoting Fabo (Reply 6):
RJs were, more or less, just a marketing gimmick

I agree. I Remember back in when the CRJ flying was getting hot and heavy at DTW I remember seeing NW banners hanging around the old Davey Terminal saying "Introducing jet service to ____________.

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 1):
I see people all the time trying their damndest to avoid flying the CRJ-200 on their legs.

I'm one of those. I flew on an CRJ-200 for the first time in ages last month, on Thanksgiving, when I flew DTW-STL.



My mug slaketh over on Falstaff N503
User currently offlinecoronado From United States of America, joined Jun 1999, 1177 posts, RR: 2
Reply 33, posted (1 year 9 months 2 weeks 2 days 19 hours ago) and read 4509 times:
Support Airliners.net - become a First Class Member!

The will still be a demand for a 50 pax jet, just not much of it. There are certain towns that are far enough away that are but yet are small enough where a mainline jet is too much capacity. Here in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan the largest town is MQT with a population of 25,000 with 6 ERJ's per week to ORD and 13 CRJ's per week to DTW. DTW is 800kms from MQT. and a tiring 10 hour drive in good weather. ORD is over 600kms or 8 hours in good weather. The closest town of over 100,000 is GRB and that is a difficult 4 1/2 to 5 hour drive or longer in winter months. And yet MQT supports a university witth 10,000 students. 200kms away from MQT you find Houghton/Hancock/?calumet (CMX) with 2 universities and another 9,000 studdents. These are destinations that justify the size and speed of a CRJ.
Where the major airlines went wrong was in looking at the CRJ as a way to increase market share by increasing frequency on more travelled routes that justified 2 or 3 mainline aircraft per day, but which all of a suddent were sprouting CRJ's every hour so that the internet computer reservation search engines showed this massive schedule connecting cities like MSP and CVG even if 90% of the flights were on CRJ's. They got away with that when oil was 25-30drls/barell. With fuel triple that the lunacy of that caught up quickly.



The Original Coronado: First CV jet flights RG CV 990 July 1965; DL CV 880 July 1965; Spantax CV990 Feb 1973
User currently offlinempdpilot From United States of America, joined Jul 2006, 993 posts, RR: 0
Reply 34, posted (1 year 9 months 2 weeks 2 days 16 hours ago) and read 3152 times:

I agree with the conscious here that cost is what driving airlines to get rid of the 50-seaters.

However! I really like flying on a CRJ-200/700/900/ERJ-170/175/190/195. at 6'4" I do need to duck, but I need to duck entering a 737 too. They are quick, the load and unload fast, you can gate check your big carryon (i love this!!). The only reason I really like flying mainline over RJs is the ability to get up and walk around. RJs don't leave a lot of unused space so getting just isn't worth it (luckily the flights are almost always under 2hrs).

Now the ERJ-135/140/145 are not fun at all!! I avoid those like the plague. The one seat side is nice but the plane is so small it isn't worth it.



One mile of highway gets you one mile, one mile of runway gets you anywhere.
User currently offlineRamblinMan From United States of America, joined Oct 2010, 1138 posts, RR: 1
Reply 35, posted (1 year 9 months 2 weeks 2 days 16 hours ago) and read 3088 times:

Quoting Flighty (Reply 27):
The CRJ200 is the cheapest, most fuel efficient solution for some market cases.

Not true. In most cases a dash 8 would be even better. I remember in the late 90s the RJs being used as a marketing gimmick... "Now introducing all-jet service!"

The problem is that a lot of the markets which can't sustain anything larger than a CR2 can't really sustain a CR2 either. The economics of a 50-seat jet are such that the fares into small cities have to be sky-high in order to make it work, people in the small cities do a comparison search and wind up driving a couple hours to a bigger airport. For the far less price-sensitive business market it can also become a wash time-wise if flying directly to a smaller city requires a connection and an inconvenient schedule vs hourly nonstops to a bigger city a couple hours away.

And they suck. I go out of my way to avoid the damn things, and while the common a.net perception is that the flying public is too dumb to know the difference, I bet a fair number of people know how to avoid certain types. Sites like kayak have "flight quality warnings" where they notify passengers about low ontime ratings, long connections, and yes, RJs.


User currently offlinemultimark From Canada, joined Jul 2006, 796 posts, RR: 0
Reply 36, posted (1 year 9 months 2 weeks 2 days 15 hours ago) and read 2883 times:

Quoting AA737-823 (Reply 2):
As far as props, the reliability issues of the Q400 have driven everyone away, apparently, though Bombardier swears they're looking into it.... still.
The ATR seems to be doing pretty well.

Were that true, I doubt you would have seen a savvy airline like WS picking them for their new regional.


User currently offlineLufthansa From Christmas Island, joined May 1999, 3213 posts, RR: 10
Reply 37, posted (1 year 9 months 2 weeks 2 days 15 hours ago) and read 2607 times:

Quoting RamblinMan (Reply 36):
And they suck. I go out of my way to avoid the damn things, and while the common a.net perception is that the flying public is too dumb to know the difference, I bet a fair number of people know how to avoid certain types.

  . Living here in Australia, we don't have many of the things. The CRJ-200 was introduced by Ansett Australia as a BAe 146 replacement but a subsidiary, attempting to go along the US thought of higher frequency. You could basically have 2 CRJ-200s for every 146 flight. QF of course didn't follow suit, and PAX switched in droves. A lot of them were regulars living in regional Australian cities that had to connect to the live blood of Australian Capitals. So there were regularly doing this and they knew the difference. They didn't know much about the CRJ other than it was bloody cramped, and they hated it and preferred a much other aircraft over it.

I'm going to call it Oil prices on one side that was wrong with the jet, the other side I do believe it has been a lot of places got excessive frequency. It depends on the mix of passengers, but as the price of oil went up, a lot of markets, when faced with less frequency but a more sustainable price picked the 150 seat option. The LCC's around the world largely proved this model successful. If I could get a one way for $130 on my LCC i'm going to wait for it rather than pay $250 on the full service carrier with the CRJ. Yes some business pax would want the frequency, but if the LCC sucked up the flexible part of the market with the cost advantage, that took away key revenue needed for the things (or reduced what a mainline could charge, say even if they could still get $170 instead of $250) at a time when they were suffering a major cost disadvantage.


User currently offlinePassedV1 From United States of America, joined Oct 2012, 220 posts, RR: 0
Reply 38, posted (1 year 9 months 2 weeks 2 days 14 hours ago) and read 2294 times:

Quoting RamblinMan (Reply 35):
I remember in the late 90s the RJs being used as a marketing gimmick... "Now introducing all-jet service!"

Absolutely true. I was American Eagle in the mid 90's when the RJ's were just starting to become all the rage. I find it hard to believe that there is any scenario where an RJ is more economical than t/p service unless you consider customer preference for jets. AE management came out and said "RJ's do not make sense...we will not be ordering ANY RJ's" Then Delta starting putting RJ's into SHV and TXK and the word on the street anyway was that our market share almost instantly halved. Bombardier couldn't make CRJ's fast enough so AE was forced to order ERJ's.

In the 90's, AA's scope with AE was that it couldn't fly more than 75 total jets with more than 44 seats so AE ordered 75 EMB-145's (50 seats). Then they told EMB that they would really like a 44 seat jet and EMB said they couldn't, but, we can take out the fuselage plug forward of the wings and you can have a 37 seat jet. AE said that's GREAT, we'll take 150(???). Thus, the EMB-135 was born. About 2 years later EMB came back to AE and said...you know...our engineers have been looking at this problem and we figured out that if we just take a little out of the plug forward of the wings and a little out behind the wings, we can give you a 44 seat jet like you wanted. AE said SOLD, convert all our orders to EMB-140's and add 50 more to the order while you are at it. Thus the EMB-140 was born.

Contractual events loseing the AA scope claus later caused AE to convert all remaining ERJ orders to EMB-145's and order 75 CRJ-700's.

The demise of the ERJ and the CRJ-200, and quite frankly a lot of the older T/P's was the crash of Air midwest 5481 which caused the FAA to go and restudy passenger weights, effectively ensuring that an EMB-145 or a CRJ-200 cannot consistently take 50 people with their bags. Small regional aircraft have the disadvantage of not having adequate stowage space so almost all carry-ons end up in the cargo hold. In a quirk of FAA regulation, your roll-a-board stowed in the cabin weighs zero pounds for weight and balance purposes, but take the same bag and put it in the cargo hold and now it all of a sudden weighs 20(ish) pounds.

As far as the final nail in the coffin it has been fuel prices, specifically the refining margin which is I believe 4 or 5 times what it was just 5 years ago.

I wish I could say I hate to see them go, but I think there useful has long passed.


User currently offlineRussianJet From Belgium, joined Jul 2007, 7703 posts, RR: 21
Reply 39, posted (1 year 9 months 2 weeks 2 days 13 hours ago) and read 2219 times:
Support Airliners.net - become a First Class Member!

Quoting AA737-823 (Reply 2):
The Sukhoi is, evidently, a wretched piece of machinery.

Not sure how this comment passed me by earlier - why is it 'evidently' so?



✈ Every strike of the hammer is a blow against the enemy. ✈
User currently offlinempsrent From Canada, joined Apr 2006, 133 posts, RR: 0
Reply 40, posted (1 year 9 months 2 weeks 2 days 13 hours ago) and read 2047 times:

I've spent many a flight on CRJ200's and I must admit that given what they were designed for, they aren't as bad an aircraft as some would make them out to be. For average size people, an RJ is just fine for regional flights lasting 1 or 2 hours. The problems start when consumers are either larger than average or the flight times become greater than the aircraft was designed for.

I'd suggest the demise of RJ's is simply a case of economics. They were designed for a market where it was still cost effective to operate a jet that could only transport 50 people.


User currently offlinewoodsboy From United States of America, joined Mar 2000, 1031 posts, RR: 2
Reply 41, posted (1 year 9 months 2 weeks 2 days 13 hours ago) and read 1960 times:

All of us have seen the small/medium RJ crisis coming. After 9/11 with the great reduction in air travel, bankrupt carriers and the mass layoffs of pilots, flight attendants and parking of hundreds of larger planes, the RJs made sense, for a while. They at least allowed the major carriers to maintain connectivity between hubs and smaller markets with smaller planes.AND to maintain hub to hub frequencies without having lots of empty seats on mainline jets. Times have changed and the small and medium RJs no longer fit into the same niche as they once did. I think that we have downplayed the significance of customer displeasure with small jets. I have found that more often than not, those who dont travel as much have a much higher degree of disdain for smaller planes, equating small planes with less safety and claustrophobia. I myself will do anything to avoid a RJ but sometimes its not possible. I have never found the premium service on a RJ to be comparable to that on a mainline jet. Lately I have been getting caught on a Compass E175 on the MSP-IAH run with breakfast service or dry cereal, not exaclty what I would expect on DL mainline F class. Anyway, that aside, I hope that DLs addition of the 717 elevates the mainline jet service on thinner routes to a point well above that found on RJs.

User currently onlineGoldenshield From United States of America, joined Jan 2001, 6042 posts, RR: 14
Reply 42, posted (1 year 9 months 2 weeks 2 days 13 hours ago) and read 1894 times:

Quoting PassedV1 (Reply 38):
The demise of the ERJ and the CRJ-200, and quite frankly a lot of the older T/P's was the crash of Air midwest 5481 which caused the FAA to go and restudy passenger weights, effectively ensuring that an EMB-145 or a CRJ-200 cannot consistently take 50 people with their bags.

A LOT of airplanes were affected by that mandate, including the venerable 737-2/3/4/5, F-100, DC-9s, and BAE-146.



Two all beef patties, special sauce, lettuce, cheese, pickles, onions on a sesame seed bun.
User currently onlineCubsrule From United States of America, joined May 2004, 23014 posts, RR: 20
Reply 43, posted (1 year 9 months 2 weeks 2 days 12 hours ago) and read 1742 times:

Quoting RamblinMan (Reply 35):
For the far less price-sensitive business market it can also become a wash time-wise if flying directly to a smaller city requires a connection and an inconvenient schedule vs hourly nonstops to a bigger city a couple hours away.

How many city pairs have a few RJs a day and hourly nonstops to a city within, say, 100 miles? There aren't many. ORD-AVP comes to mind. It's usually a closer call than that. If I'm going to CAE, flying to CLT usually makes more sense because CLT has so much service and the connection is often in CLT. But flying to BTR versus MSY - which is a similar distance - is harder because MSY doesn't have as much service as CLT and generally it's possible to have a longer day in Baton Rouge flying from BTR with late flights out to DFW and IAH.

Quoting coronado (Reply 33):
There are certain towns that are far enough away that are but yet are small enough where a mainline jet is too much capacity.

There are also certain frequencies on large routes that are more appropriately served on a 50 seat jet. If I see a schedule with 6 or 7 CR9 to 738 sized aircraft and a couple of CRJs at odd times, that really doesn't set off any warning bells for me.

Quoting PassedV1 (Reply 38):
The demise of the ERJ and the CRJ-200, and quite frankly a lot of the older T/P's was the crash of Air midwest 5481 which caused the FAA to go and restudy passenger weights, effectively ensuring that an EMB-145 or a CRJ-200 cannot consistently take 50 people with their bags.

It has probably been five years since I was on a 50 seat jet that left passengers or bags, and that flight had a lot of unusual things going for it (it was ORD-JAX, and the weather was so bad in the area that I believe CLT was the alternate). That's definitely the exception, not the rule.



I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
User currently offlineRayChuang From United States of America, joined Jun 2000, 8017 posts, RR: 5
Reply 44, posted (1 year 9 months 2 weeks 2 days 12 hours ago) and read 1698 times:

I think with the Bombardier Dash 8 Q400 capable to carrying under 75 passengers with near-jet speeds and higher fuel efficiency, that explains why smaller regional jets are being rapidly retired. One wonder is Saab kicking themselves for no longer in the airliner market now, because the demand for a modern version of the Saab 2000 would be huge.

Also, improvements in propeller technology could make it possible for the Dash 8-Q400 to switch to eight-bladed propellers, which would allow the propeller to spin even slower for additional fuel savings.


Top Of Page
Forum Index

This topic is archived and can not be replied to any more.

Printer friendly format

Similar topics:More similar topics...
Why Has The "-100" Disappeared After The 747? posted Thu Feb 25 2010 01:54:47 by faro
What If Boeing Went In The RJ Market? posted Sun Oct 30 2005 02:04:02 by 797
Why Has The New Generation JL Never Flown To MEX? posted Mon Jan 31 2005 20:58:51 by Ktachiya
Who Has The Biggest Market Share At LAX? posted Fri May 14 2004 00:17:48 by A2
Why Wasn't The Avro RJ A Big Hit With US Carriers? posted Wed Apr 14 2010 17:46:23 by c5load
Why Has Delta Removed The Northwest Name Already? posted Thu Jul 9 2009 21:32:03 by Sankaps
Why Asia Has The World's Best Airports posted Fri Apr 3 2009 11:14:15 by SJC30L
Why Does The BAA RJ 70, Etc Have 4 Engines? posted Sat Mar 22 2008 05:52:45 by Deaphen
Why Has Boeing Discontinued The B757 posted Sun Apr 15 2007 08:24:20 by Chinook747
Why Do The Second 747 400 LCF Has No Winglets? posted Fri Feb 16 2007 23:56:39 by 747400sp