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KE Dropping LAX-NRT?  
User currently offlineANA787 From United States of America, joined Jun 2012, 330 posts, RR: 0
Posted (1 year 11 months 2 weeks 2 days 8 hours ago) and read 11798 times:

I always fly this route and bookings seem to be no longer available after March 31, 2013? Is this route being cut?

37 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineAeroWesty From United States of America, joined Oct 2004, 20791 posts, RR: 62
Reply 1, posted (1 year 11 months 2 weeks 2 days 8 hours ago) and read 11764 times:

It appears so, as noted towards the end of this thread:

Out Of 8 Routes To NRT, UA Downgrades LAX, Why? (by g500 Dec 11 2012 in Civil Aviation)



International Homo of Mystery
User currently offlineDolphinAir747 From United States of America, joined Jun 2012, 326 posts, RR: 0
Reply 2, posted (1 year 11 months 2 weeks 2 days 7 hours ago) and read 11688 times:

That's not surprising. I always wondered why they flew this seeing as they have more than ample service directly from ICN. Also, the presence of 7 other carriers on the route must have massacred yields.

User currently offlineLAXintl From United States of America, joined May 2000, 26028 posts, RR: 50
Reply 3, posted (1 year 11 months 2 weeks 2 days 7 hours ago) and read 11621 times:

Yes after 41-years the Tokyo to Los Angeles link ends.


From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
User currently offlineFL787 From United States of America, joined Aug 2007, 1551 posts, RR: 12
Reply 4, posted (1 year 11 months 2 weeks 2 days 6 hours ago) and read 11304 times:

Yet another sign that Japan is losing its relative importance in the region.


717,72S,732/3/4/5/G/8/9,744,752/3,763/4,772/3,D9S/5,M8/90,D10,319/20/21,332/3,388,CR2/7/9,EM2,ER4,E70/75/90,SF3,AR8
User currently offlineyowza From Canada, joined Jul 2005, 4906 posts, RR: 15
Reply 5, posted (1 year 11 months 2 weeks 2 days 6 hours ago) and read 11218 times:

Quoting FL787 (Reply 4):

Perhaps an overstatement no? Don't SQ, UA, DL, AA, JL, NH, MH all also offer this route?



12A whenever possible.
User currently offlinePHX787 From Japan, joined Mar 2012, 7859 posts, RR: 19
Reply 6, posted (1 year 11 months 2 weeks 2 days 6 hours ago) and read 11144 times:

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 3):
Yes after 41-years the Tokyo to Los Angeles link ends.

So Sad. My flight last year flew along side it for most of the trip back. Great companion back to the states.

Buddy of mine always took this route too because of KE's service. Sad loss  
Quoting yowza (Reply 5):
Perhaps an overstatement no? Don't SQ, UA, DL, AA, JL, NH, MH all also offer this route?

Indeed an overstatement. Rumor has MH is going to run A380s on this route alongside the SQ A380.

Japan may be struggling a bit but NRT is still one heck of a hub.



我思うゆえに我あり。(Jap. 'I think, therefore I am.')
User currently offlineDolphinAir747 From United States of America, joined Jun 2012, 326 posts, RR: 0
Reply 7, posted (1 year 11 months 2 weeks 2 days 6 hours ago) and read 11083 times:

Don't forget that NRT is also getting/just got new flights to SAN, SJC, DEN, and SEA. Four 787s replacing a 330 is a large increase...

User currently offlineFL787 From United States of America, joined Aug 2007, 1551 posts, RR: 12
Reply 8, posted (1 year 11 months 2 weeks 2 days 5 hours ago) and read 10931 times:

Quoting yowza (Reply 5):
Perhaps an overstatement no? Don't SQ, UA, DL, AA, JL, NH, MH all also offer this route?

I'm not saying LAX-NRT is a bad route or that it shouldn't be flown but its just not a prestige route like it once was. UA, AA, DL, NH, and JL all have significant operations on one end while SQ and MH both have hubs that make nonstops to LAX difficult. Given how competitive the route is, and how KE's partner DL is also on the route, I find it tough to believe they found NRT-LAX to be the best use of aircraft instead of something out of ICN for so long.



717,72S,732/3/4/5/G/8/9,744,752/3,763/4,772/3,D9S/5,M8/90,D10,319/20/21,332/3,388,CR2/7/9,EM2,ER4,E70/75/90,SF3,AR8
User currently offlineLAXintl From United States of America, joined May 2000, 26028 posts, RR: 50
Reply 9, posted (1 year 11 months 2 weeks 2 days 5 hours ago) and read 10786 times:

Bottom line is that US-Japan is a declining market in size.

Not only has the fact that Japan no longer need to play the role as the Asia gateway with ever growing nonstop direct services, the economic malaise and demographic shifts in Japan have led to reduced travel demand for US flights.



From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
User currently offlineMaverickM11 From United States of America, joined Apr 2000, 17787 posts, RR: 46
Reply 10, posted (1 year 11 months 2 weeks 2 days 5 hours ago) and read 10741 times:

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 9):
Bottom line is that US-Japan is a declining market in size.

  

Quoting DolphinAir747 (Reply 7):
Don't forget that NRT is also getting/just got new flights to SAN, SJC, DEN, and SEA. Four 787s replacing a 330 is a large increase...

NRT has been in a terminal decline for years, if not decades.



E pur si muove -Galileo
User currently offlineg500 From United States of America, joined Oct 2011, 1018 posts, RR: 0
Reply 11, posted (1 year 11 months 2 weeks 2 days 3 hours ago) and read 10372 times:
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Quoting LAXintl (Reply 3):
Yes after 41-years the Tokyo to Los Angeles link ends.

sad but expected I guess. LAX-NRT is crowed for the looks of it


User currently offlineas739x From United States of America, joined Apr 2003, 6187 posts, RR: 24
Reply 12, posted (1 year 11 months 2 weeks 2 days 3 hours ago) and read 10329 times:

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 6):
Indeed an overstatement. Rumor has MH is going to run A380s on this route alongside the SQ A380

Don't get your hopes up on that one! As LAXIntl said: "Bottom line is that US-Japan is a declining market in size". So why? They can't do daily service as is.



"Some pilots avoid storm cells and some play connect the dots!"
User currently offlineFly2yyz From Canada, joined Jan 2006, 1046 posts, RR: 2
Reply 13, posted (1 year 11 months 2 weeks 2 days 3 hours ago) and read 10205 times:

So is this official? I mean this is sorta like a prestige route for KE right?

And I'm not sure, but was/is KE allowed to sell NRT-LAX-GRU for instance?


User currently offlineordjoe From United States of America, joined Aug 2010, 731 posts, RR: 0
Reply 14, posted (1 year 11 months 2 weeks 2 days 1 hour ago) and read 9466 times:

Good for ke they are offering nothing more than what the 7 other carriers are at the end of the the day. I see most premium pax using UA or AA from the us or ana or jl from the Japanese side. Seems more prestige driven.

User currently offlinelightsaber From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 13457 posts, RR: 100
Reply 15, posted (1 year 11 months 2 weeks 2 days 1 hour ago) and read 9334 times:
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Quoting LAXintl (Reply 3):
Yes after 41-years the Tokyo to Los Angeles link ends.

Wow...

Am I the only one floored by this announcement. It was an option always taken for granted...

Quoting yowza (Reply 5):
Don't SQ, UA, DL, AA, JL, NH, MH all also offer this route?

I still remember the threads on the route competition... I think only SYD-LHR is more brutal.

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 10):
NRT has been in a terminal decline for years, if not decades.

Sad but true. When it forgo being a larger hub the writing was on the wall.

Quoting Fly2yyz (Reply 13):
So is this official? I mean this is sorta like a prestige route for KE right?

Then it probably should be dropped. Usually 'prestigue'=money losing.

Quoting as739x (Reply 12):
Quoting PHX787 (Reply 6):
Indeed an overstatement. Rumor has MH is going to run A380s on this route alongside the SQ A380

Don't get your hopes up on that one! As LAXIntl said: "Bottom line is that US-Japan is a declining market in size". So why? They can't do daily service as is.

I have to agree with not getting one's hopes up. LAX-NRT is being displaced by bypass to many other destinations: ICN, PEK, PVG, HKG, CAN and probably a few others I missed the launch of the non-stop. The connections at NRT aren't that convenient. The reality is that ICN, PEK, PVG, HKG, CAN, SIN, and other competing hubs have raised the bar. MH might fly to LAX, but there is more money to be made stopping elsewhere.

I would like to see NRT become more competitive. But that would take another runway and terminal which is unlikely.

Lightsaber



Societies that achieve a critical mass of ideas achieve self sustaining growth; others stagnate.
User currently offlineSCQ83 From United States of America, joined Oct 2012, 1103 posts, RR: 0
Reply 16, posted (1 year 11 months 2 weeks 2 days ago) and read 9219 times:

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 9):
Bottom line is that US-Japan is a declining market in size.

Not only has the fact that Japan no longer need to play the role as the Asia gateway with ever growing nonstop direct services, the economic malaise and demographic shifts in Japan have led to reduced travel demand for US flights.

Japan has a demographic shrink and there is less need to transfer in NRT to go to China or Korea (at least from major US cities with direct connections to those countries), but economic malaise? It has more likely to do with Japanese corporations turning to China and South East Asia as well... no need to go to America for business or holiday when the fastest growing region in the world is at Japan's doorstep.

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 10):
NRT has been in a terminal decline for years, if not decades.

Despite numbers to the US have been drowning consistently since the 90s, I wonder how this can be called a terminal decline... in 2013 NRT will have direct services to 18 US airports served by 8 airlines. I can't think of many (or any) airports that have or are to begin four international new TATL services from the US (BOS, DEN, SAN, SJC) with three different airlines (NH, JP, UA) in just slightly more than a year.


User currently offlineLAXintl From United States of America, joined May 2000, 26028 posts, RR: 50
Reply 17, posted (1 year 11 months 2 weeks 1 day 23 hours ago) and read 8639 times:

Quoting SCQ83 (Reply 16):
but economic malaise?

Yes the economic malaise Japan has found itself in now in its second decade has created a situation where the lack of growth had led to a market without a catalyst to spur travel, keeping corporate and consumer demand down.

Quoting SCQ83 (Reply 16):
I wonder how this can be called a terminal decline...

Here are some Japan-US travel stats:

Total traffic between US-Japan including 3rd country transit / of which is US or Japan O&D

1998 - 19,517,050 / 14,082,361 (1998 as far back as I have)
2000 - 19,895,806 / 15,248,725
2005 - 16,919,565 / 13,536,808
2010 - 13,309,056 / 10,773,156
2011 - 12,996,970 / 10,199,965

And so far for 2012 (thru July) traffic is down another 5.7%.


If you want to look at the LAX - Tokyo market specifically.

Total enplanements / of which O&D

2003 - 1,295,825 / 607,754
2011 - 1,101,245 / 596,086


On the opposite side of this coin the large growth of nonstop Transpac traffic from places like South Korea, China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, etc..
For example, US-Korea produced mere 2.8mil travelers in 2000, but 5.4mil by 2011. Almost double.



From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
User currently offlinecarpethead From Japan, joined Aug 2004, 2975 posts, RR: 3
Reply 18, posted (1 year 11 months 2 weeks 1 day 21 hours ago) and read 8094 times:

KE has nothing smaller than the A332 that can make NRT-LAX, so I suppose it was the obvious decision.
To note, in the last few years, NH & DL have added HND-LAX, so the net number of daily flights will be one.

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 17):
Total traffic between US-Japan including 3rd country transit / of which is US or Japan O&D

1998 - 19,517,050 / 14,082,361 (1998 as far back as I have)
2000 - 19,895,806 / 15,248,725
2005 - 16,919,565 / 13,536,808
2010 - 13,309,056 / 10,773,156
2011 - 12,996,970 / 10,199,965

The drop is largely related to dramatic decrease in tourist visiting the US.
1. Dealing with the TSA (enough said)
2. Application for entry into the US (EU and many Asian countires have no such measures- tourists want no such hassles)

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 15):
I would like to see NRT become more competitive. But that would take another runway and terminal which is unlikely.

Not to mention a curfew which has allowed NRT to drop numerous position in the cargo rankings.


User currently offlinemah4546 From Sweden, joined Jan 2001, 33195 posts, RR: 71
Reply 19, posted (1 year 11 months 2 weeks 1 day 20 hours ago) and read 8012 times:

Quoting carpethead (Reply 18):
1. Dealing with the TSA (enough said)
2. Application for entry into the US (EU and many Asian countires have no such measures- tourists want no such hassles)

Sorry, but, no.

I know people love to spout out the above nonsense, but it's not true. Japan's economy sucks and keeps on sucking more. Arrivals from elsewhere are up all round - even many European countries - and I assure you those transiting from outside of TWOV countries have much more hassle than Japanese travelers, who have virtually zero hassle flying to the U.S.



a.
User currently offlineTC957 From UK - England, joined May 2012, 989 posts, RR: 0
Reply 20, posted (1 year 11 months 2 weeks 1 day 20 hours ago) and read 7986 times:

It'll be interesting to see if KE will introduce more new services with the A332's that are being released from ICN-NRT-LAX schedules. Perhaps AMS will go daily next summer.

User currently offlineklwright69 From Saudi Arabia, joined Jan 2000, 2083 posts, RR: 3
Reply 21, posted (1 year 11 months 2 weeks 1 day 16 hours ago) and read 7281 times:

Quoting SCQ83 (Reply 16):
Despite numbers to the US have been drowning consistently since the 90s, I wonder how this can be called a terminal decline... in 2013 NRT will have direct services to 18 US airports served by 8 airlines. I can't think of many (or any) airports that have or are to begin four international new TATL services from the US (BOS, DEN, SAN, SJC) with three different airlines (NH, JP, UA) in just slightly more than a year.

Maybe it's a gaining market share strategy.


User currently offlineLAXintl From United States of America, joined May 2000, 26028 posts, RR: 50
Reply 22, posted (1 year 11 months 2 weeks 1 day 13 hours ago) and read 6279 times:

As a good sign of how things have fallen, look back on JAL - once worlds largest operator of 747s, now does not operate a single frame. Similarly ANA has moved away from the 747.

The Japan medium/longhaul markets are now built on smaller types such as the 767/777 and now growing numbers of 787s. The passenger demand is simply not there anymore.



From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
User currently offlineANA787 From United States of America, joined Jun 2012, 330 posts, RR: 0
Reply 23, posted (1 year 11 months 2 weeks 1 day 12 hours ago) and read 6116 times:

Quoting TC957 (Reply 20):
It'll be interesting to see if KE will introduce more new services with the A332's that are being released from ICN-NRT-LAX schedules. Perhaps AMS will go daily next summer.

BNE is also being discontinued so a few additional aircraft will be available. With these additional A330s I could see them opening up ICN-YYC/PDX services.


User currently offlineLAXintl From United States of America, joined May 2000, 26028 posts, RR: 50
Reply 24, posted (1 year 11 months 2 weeks 1 day 10 hours ago) and read 5694 times:

Quoting klwright69 (Reply 21):
Maybe it's a gaining market share strategy.

I think its simply a splintering of the market made possible with a small long range model, similar to how the 767 helped splinter the Atlantic in the mid 1980s.

However one big difference is the Atlantic was a growing market, while Japan is a declining one.
I believe it will be interesting to see how many of these splintered routes will be sustainable and still around 5-years from now if the broader traffic decline between the nations continues. I mean look at JAL, they are down to mere single daily flights using smaller equipment already at key markets such as SFO and LAX where historically they maintained much higher activity.



From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
25 TakeOff : Japan is in the Visa Waiver Program. Japanese citizens who wish to visit the U.S. don't need a visa to enter the country unless they plan to stay for
26 panamair : The flight still carries the flight numbers KE001 and KE002, amazing they have nevers switched KE1 / 2 to a nonstop ICN-LAX service all this time.
27 mah4546 : Yeah, but one still needs to apply for ETSA. It's $14 and valid for two years. I believe it can be done online in a matter of 1-2 minutes.
28 eta unknown : BNE stays, MEL goes.
29 SCQ83 : I have agreed in my first message that traffic was declining for years...I don't rebate those numbers. However this is not because the "terminal" Jap
30 Viscount724 : Yes, no problem. That may have been true 40 years ago when Korea was still a small market, but these days those 5th freedom services are becoming few
31 Post contains images LAXintl : Well here is total historic outbound Japanese tourism. Seems to have peaked in 2000 and now sputtering and in decline. =
32 SCQ83 : This is getting so biased. The chart finishes in 2009, when international traffic plummet because of the global financial crisis. Take any US-Europe
33 Post contains links LAXintl : Biased? I'm showing you Japanese government data. The numbers are what they are. Outbound Japanese travel is hardly vibrant. It peaked back in 2000 a
34 Fly2yyz : This is definitely too bad if this is true. I know that KE decided to do ICN-KIX-GUM recently and have been running it for a few months I believe. I
35 klwright69 : I am sure he's right. Like how Kuwait Airlines has rock bottom fares on JFK-LHR. I think DEN-NRT will work. DEN has always been underserver internati
36 HeeseokKoo : KE001/002 was initially started as Seoul-Tokyo-HNL-LAX at Apr 1972 as KE's first transpacific passenger regular flight. And according to KE website, f
37 LAXintl : Yes also competitive, however the Japan-beach markets seem to be doing well. Both DL and UA have added capacity, while new player HA keep growing. Mu
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