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Will AA MIA-NRT Ever Become A Reality?  
User currently onlinemiaintl From United States of America, joined Jun 2010, 1017 posts, RR: 0
Posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 1 day 22 hours ago) and read 9175 times:

Seeing that AA is expanding rapidly in MIA especially in their Latin American/Brazil service, is there now a real possibility that we might see AA feed that traffic with an Asian service to NRT from MIA? I think the new 77W plane is perfect with that route. MIA is the only major airport in the south without any direct service to East Asia. DFW, IAH, and ATL all have services to NRT and other east Asian destinations, but MIA has none. So I think time is due for a Japan link to MIA.

38 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineLonghornmaniac From United States of America, joined Jun 2005, 3278 posts, RR: 45
Reply 1, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 1 day 22 hours ago) and read 9150 times:

I expect it would be a 787 route.

  

Cheers,
Cameron


User currently offlineTdan From United States of America, joined Nov 2011, 408 posts, RR: 3
Reply 2, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 1 day 22 hours ago) and read 9067 times:

It will happen soon. Either JL 788 or AA 777/77W. The timing actually works best if it is served by AA for deep South America, but best by JL to hit Central America and the Caribbean.


We will ride this thunderbird, silver shadows on the earth, a thousand leagues away our land of birth... -Captain Bruce
User currently onlinemiaintl From United States of America, joined Jun 2010, 1017 posts, RR: 0
Reply 3, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 1 day 22 hours ago) and read 8984 times:

Is there actually a market between Miami and Japan, because I know that always factors in on whether a route is profitable.

User currently offlinejustinlee From China, joined Aug 2012, 331 posts, RR: 0
Reply 4, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 1 day 22 hours ago) and read 8964 times:

Quoting miaintl (Reply 3):
Is there actually a market between Miami and Japan, because I know that always factors in on whether a route is profitable.

I believe there is a big market between Japan and South America considering the immigrants and investment Japan have in that region. But I don't know where they actually connect now  


User currently offlinemah4546 From Sweden, joined Jan 2001, 32603 posts, RR: 72
Reply 5, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 1 day 21 hours ago) and read 8943 times:

Yes.

I'm told it was on one of the route maps shown to ALPA at a presentation this week about AA's future growth. AA actually gave away a lot about its future route planning last week to a group of employees. I believe there is a redacted version posted online.

Florida-Japan is a traditionally large O&D market - around 160 PDEW - but took a huge hit after the Tsunami, like many U.S.-Japan markets.



a.
User currently offlineAeroWesty From United States of America, joined Oct 2004, 20392 posts, RR: 62
Reply 6, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 1 day 21 hours ago) and read 8898 times:

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 5):
I'm told it was on one of the route maps shown to ALPA at a presentation this week about AA's future growth.

Ah, I wondered if that was one of the 'redacted' items in the PDF I saw posted by the Dallas paper. I made a few other assumptions based on routes often talked about here, too. Thanks for the confirmation.   

I do wonder if that'll continue to fractionalize the U.S. - Japan market. Was there any indication if this would be service to NRT or HND?



International Homo of Mystery
User currently offlineViscount724 From Switzerland, joined Oct 2006, 24817 posts, RR: 22
Reply 7, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 1 day 21 hours ago) and read 8877 times:

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 5):
Florida-Japan is a traditionally large O&D market - around 160 PDEW

How would that 160 number break down between US-origin, Japan-origin, and connecting traffic to/from other points in Asia or Latin America etc.?


User currently offlinemah4546 From Sweden, joined Jan 2001, 32603 posts, RR: 72
Reply 8, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 1 day 21 hours ago) and read 8838 times:

Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 7):
How would that 160 number break down between US-origin, Japan-origin, and connecting traffic to/from other points in Asia or Latin America etc.?

That's O&D, so there is no connecting traffic there.

Florida-Japan is roughly two-thirds Japan-originating.

That number is also pre-Tsunami. MIATYO alone dropped around 30% in 2011.

The largest Florida-Asia markets by city pair are traditionally MCOTYO, MIAMNL, MIAHKG, MIATYO and MIABOM.

Florida-Asia also, and quite obviously, isn't a yields goldmine, but MIAHKG and MIATPE are outliers - premium-heavy markets, high average fares.

[Edited 2012-12-18 16:35:22]


a.
User currently offlinenomorerjs From United States of America, joined Sep 2004, 444 posts, RR: 0
Reply 9, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 1 day 21 hours ago) and read 8723 times:

What are the yields on these routes? MNL to Florida must be deep in the toilet.

User currently offlinemah4546 From Sweden, joined Jan 2001, 32603 posts, RR: 72
Reply 10, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 1 day 21 hours ago) and read 8691 times:

Quoting nomorerjs (Reply 9):
What are the yields on these routes? MNL to Florida must be deep in the toilet.

Of course Manila-Florida is trash yield. I think the average is sub-$700. Big market, though.

Average one-ways to Japan/China/Korea are typically around $700-850 one-way, which is pretty much on par with averages from California, but California is a lot closer. Hong Kong/Taipei average $1,300-1,450 one-way. When the averages start skewing that high, that shows a larger than average proportion of J demand.

[Edited 2012-12-18 16:59:33]


a.
User currently offlineDolphinAir747 From United States of America, joined Jun 2012, 305 posts, RR: 0
Reply 11, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 1 day 20 hours ago) and read 8472 times:

MIA-NRT is certainly a large O&D market compared to, say ATL-NRT, and MIA has much, much, much better South American connectivity than ATL for onbvious reasons. There's a reason DL wants to buy AA's MIA operation...

User currently offlineRoseflyer From United States of America, joined Feb 2004, 9495 posts, RR: 52
Reply 12, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 1 day 20 hours ago) and read 8359 times:

Quoting miaintl (Thread starter):
I think the new 77W plane is perfect with that route

I think the 77W would be their worst choice from a capacity management point of view. MIA-NRT is going to be a thin route with little to no domestic feed. It is an unproven route relying upon connections to South America which require many to have transit visas. The 787 is far better for such a route. It's the same distance as ORD-DEL, but has some headwind problems, but the 772 would be a better choice because starting a new route with your biggest airplane almost never makes sense.



If you have never designed an airplane part before, let the real designers do the work!
User currently onlinemiaintl From United States of America, joined Jun 2010, 1017 posts, RR: 0
Reply 13, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 1 day 18 hours ago) and read 8054 times:

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 10):

I don't know of any plane that can do MIA-HKG nonstop and as far as i heard CX has not placed any orders of 787s.


User currently onlineLAXdude1023 From India, joined Sep 2006, 7497 posts, RR: 24
Reply 14, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 1 day 17 hours ago) and read 7939 times:

Quoting DolphinAir747 (Reply 11):

MIA-NRT is certainly a large O&D market compared to, say ATL-NRT, and MIA has much, much, much better South American connectivity than ATL for onbvious reasons. There's a reason DL wants to buy AA's MIA operation...

Actually no it isnt. I wouldnt call MIA-NRT large and its actually smaller than ATL-NRT as well as IAH-NRT and DFW-NRT.

MCO-NRT is by far the largest South-NRT market.

The largest MIA-East Asia market is MIA-MNL and it is also the largest South-MNL market.

All that said, could MIA-NRT work? I believe it can with a 787. The key will be marketing the flight to Florida bound traffic. I dont think going after Latin America connections is going to be worth while since all the major markets from Latin America to NRT and Asia are pretty well covered via other hubs (GRU, EZE, GIG, SCL, and LIM).

What will make this flight unique is Florida and it needs to be marketed as such.



Stewed...Lewd...Crude...Irreverent...Belligerent
User currently offlinejfk777 From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 8280 posts, RR: 7
Reply 15, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 1 day 9 hours ago) and read 6765 times:
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Miami to Narita is probably best with a 787-9. Since the GRU and GIG flights arrive before sunrise in Miami customs should not be a problem. A 777-300ER is too big for Miami to Tokyo even if it could be flown. AA already provides through connections from Brazil to Tokyo over DFW and JFK. Connecting over Miami is only replicating a service already offered.

User currently offlinejfklganyc From United States of America, joined Jan 2004, 3379 posts, RR: 5
Reply 16, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 1 day 8 hours ago) and read 6302 times:

Why????

What a long, low yielding route.

The US screwed up international to international connections via the US after 9/11. That is why IB dismantled their MIA mini hub.

To most of the world, connecting through the US is like one of us buying a ticket to connect through LGA. No reason to do it if it can be avoided.


User currently offlineairbazar From United States of America, joined Sep 2003, 8204 posts, RR: 10
Reply 17, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 1 day 8 hours ago) and read 6302 times:

Quoting DolphinAir747 (Reply 11):
MIA-NRT is certainly a large O&D market compared to, say ATL-NRT, and MIA has much, much, much better South American connectivity than ATL for onbvious reasons.

ATL-NRT doesn't exist to connect S.America. It exists primarily to connect NRT with the US South.

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 15):
Miami to Narita is probably best with a 787-9. Since the GRU and GIG flights arrive before sunrise in Miami customs should not be a problem. A 777-300ER is too big for Miami to Tokyo even if it could be flown. AA already provides through connections from Brazil to Tokyo over DFW and JFK. Connecting over Miami is only replicating a service already offered.

I do agree that the 789 is the better plane however, it all depends on how each of the planes will be configured and how AA/JL choose to manage their yields. They can very easily direct their S.American connecting traffic primarily via MIA instead of DFW or JFK if they need to fill that 77W. Personally I think MIA is a better connecting point than JFK, if nothing else because it's not subject to the weather delays and congestion that JFK often experiences thus providing a much more reliable service.


User currently offlinemax550 From United States of America, joined Nov 2007, 1147 posts, RR: 0
Reply 18, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 1 day 8 hours ago) and read 6153 times:

Quoting miaintl (Thread starter):
MIA is the only major airport in the south without any direct service to East Asia.

CLT?

Quoting miaintl (Thread starter):
So I think time is due for a Japan link to MIA.

I think we'll see it once more 787's are in service, whether it's from an Asian carrier or AA. Much like BOS, SAN, and SJC, who up until recently didn't have any Asian service (SJC starts Jan. 11).

I just wonder how much connecting traffic there would be from South America. MIA is pretty out of the way for nearly everyone in the US and I could see it cannibalizing other AA routes (ORD and JFK) rather than bringing in people who were using other airlines before.


User currently offlineclrd4t8koff From United States of America, joined Mar 2005, 225 posts, RR: 0
Reply 19, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 1 day 7 hours ago) and read 5686 times:

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 14):
Actually no it isnt. I wouldnt call MIA-NRT large and its actually smaller than ATL-NRT as well as IAH-NRT and DFW-NRT.

Bingo! Which is why MIA is without direct passenger service to Asia even though it's a large hub.


User currently onlineLAXdude1023 From India, joined Sep 2006, 7497 posts, RR: 24
Reply 20, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 1 day 7 hours ago) and read 5603 times:

Quoting clrd4t8koff (Reply 19):
Bingo! Which is why MIA is without direct passenger service to Asia even though it's a large hub.

To be fair though, MIA-Asia could fill a 787. The question I would have would be regarding yields. Some Asia destinations from MIA (Im thinking of MNL particularly) are trash yielding and not even worth going after while others (like HKG) are more premium.

Thats why I say a flight like this needs to be geared at the Florida O&D. Make people pay the premium for traveling directly to Florida and leave the Latin American connections to DFW. DFW has most of the majors covered anyway (GRU, EZE, SCL, and soon to be LIM and BOG). Asia-GIG could better be routed through JFK since they only fly DFW-GIG thrice weekly.



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User currently offlinebobloblaw From United States of America, joined Jan 2012, 1607 posts, RR: 1
Reply 21, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 1 day 6 hours ago) and read 5501 times:
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Asia-South America traffic tends to be lower yield, though there should be a growing business component.

User currently offlinemah4546 From Sweden, joined Jan 2001, 32603 posts, RR: 72
Reply 22, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 1 day 3 hours ago) and read 4409 times:

Quoting clrd4t8koff (Reply 19):
Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 14):
Actually no it isnt. I wouldnt call MIA-NRT large and its actually smaller than ATL-NRT as well as IAH-NRT and DFW-NRT.

Bingo! Which is why MIA is without direct passenger service to Asia even though it's a large hub.

Not really. Miami has an ample-sized market to Asia and will have no problem support non-stop to Tokyo. Miami to it's five largest Asia markets - MNL, TYO, HKG, SHA and SEL - is 175 PDEW. That's nothing to sneeze at, and that was in a year when the Florida-Tokyo market collapsed due to the Tsunami. Historically this decade MIATYO has been ~45-50 PDEW, but following the Tsunami dipped to ~30 PDEW. Traffic for the first three months of 2012 already indicates it returning to previous levels. MCOTYO also saw a big dip, but remains large.

Further, Japanese tourists visting Florida often combine Miami and Orlando and use Orlando as the airport choice, so Miami-Tokyo definitley has leakage.

I've said it many times before, here is the key to Florida-Asia:

1) Grab the Orlando-Tokyo traffic. This traffic is indifferent between using MCO and MIA; MCOTYO is a large market, larger than BOSTYO, SANTYO or PDXTYO.
2) Grab the Miami-Hong Kong market. It's only about ~25-30 PDEW right now, but it's the largest Southeast-HKG market and very high-yielding. Miami and Hong Kong have strong business ties thanks to Swire Group and the strength of both as major international trade/cargo hubs.
3) Grab connecting traffic from northern South America. It's an exploding market. And forget that nonsense people like to spout about visas. Koreans, Japanese and Taiwanese don't need them, while most Latins that are going to Asia have multi-year U.S. transit visas secured already.
4) Grab Miami-Philippines. The yield isn't hot, but the market is large and - along with Japanese tourists - helps fill the Y cabin.

[Edited 2012-12-19 10:51:49]

[Edited 2012-12-19 10:52:47]


a.
User currently onlineLAXdude1023 From India, joined Sep 2006, 7497 posts, RR: 24
Reply 23, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 1 day 3 hours ago) and read 4366 times:

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 22):
1) Grab the Orlando-Tokyo traffic. This traffic is indifferent between using MCO and MIA; MCOTYO is a large market, larger than BOSTYO, SANTYO or PDXTYO.
2) Grab the Miami-Hong Kong market. It's only about ~25-30 PDEW right now, but it's the largest Southeast-HKG market and very high-yielding. Miami and Hong Kong have strong business ties thanks to Swire Group and the strength of both as major international trade/cargo hubs.
3) Grab connecting traffic from northern South America. It's an exploding market. And forget that nonsense people like to spout about visas. Koreans, Japanese and Taiwanese don't need them, while most Latins that are going to Asia have multi-year U.S. transit visas secured already.
4) Grab Miami-Philippines. The yield isn't hot, but the market is large and - along with Japanese tourists - helps fill the Y cabin.

In my opinion, points one and two are much more key to the success of this route than points three or four.



Stewed...Lewd...Crude...Irreverent...Belligerent
User currently offlineByrdluvs747 From United States of America, joined Jul 2004, 2349 posts, RR: 1
Reply 24, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 1 day 3 hours ago) and read 4282 times:

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 22):
Grab Miami-Philippines.

Are you proposing that AA should start US-MNL or just codeshare/interline with PR's MNL-LAX flight? If the former, then how would AA operate such a long low yielding route? MIA-MNL is around 9k nm.



The 747: The hands who designed it were guided by god.
25 mah4546 : I'm not proposing any such thing. All I said was Manila traffic can help fill the Y cabin of MIA-NRT. AA already interlines with PR.
26 mpdpilot : By the sound of this thread there seem to be three routes that could be started tomorrow, assuming there are aircraft to operate them. NRT-MIA AA/JL 7
27 MHTripple7 : Considering TWOV is no longer possible through the U.S., I fail to see how MIA could ever act as an effective connecting point between Japan and S. Am
28 mah4546 : Well, for one thing, DFW, ATL, DTW, JFK and LAX all already do act as an effective connecting point between Japan and S. America (and for deep South
29 airbazar : Because of this, which I agree entirely. Visas are primarily an issue for low yield tourists, not business travelers. I don't agree for a few reasons
30 mah4546 : Which is exactly why, as much as I want to see a JL 787 at MIA, I don't believe the 788 - in the way JAL configures it - is right for this route. Not
31 crosswinds21 : Even though the US doesn't have TVOW, the problem is that there just aren't many other options to get from North East Asia to South America. There's
32 Viscount724 : Why are you ingoring routings via Gulf points such as DXB or DOH? The mileage difference is inconsequential to many major destinations in South Ameri
33 crosswinds21 : First of all, the gulf routings are, in many cases, longer (but not always, as you showed). Of course, this doesn't automatically disqualify that opt
34 jonathanxxxx : Yes those routings for GRU. How about BSB, GIG, EZE or even BOG, CCS, or LIM (All but GIG and EZE not served through Gulf points and still very large
35 DolphinAir747 : I notice that AA has not announced any new destinations with the 77W. Horton has hinted to MIA-NRT in the past, and the other rumored route, DFW-ICN,
36 brilondon : Would South American routes not connect through DFW or LAX instead of MIA?
37 jonathanxxxx : LAX barely has service to South America, DFW on the other hand does have more, but frequencies are much more limited compared to MIA.
38 Post contains links mah4546 : Publicly. Internally AA has announced a huge expansion plan. All the public knows is DFW-BOG and MIA-CWB-POA-MIA. Wish we knew what was on there, but
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