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Another Mystery Customer For BBD CS100  
User currently offlineDash9 From Canada, joined Nov 2008, 210 posts, RR: 0
Posted (1 year 10 months 5 days 19 hours ago) and read 8927 times:

Hello. An unidentified client has ordered 12+18 CS100.

Press released: http://www.bombardier.com/en/corpora...ses/details?docID=0901260d8027f220

This is good news for the program a few weeks after admitting to a delay of first flight.

So lets the speculation begin. Who is it?

On a side note, why are there so many CS clients that wish to remain unidentified? Scope clause negotiation?


-Dash9

40 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineFDH From Canada, joined Sep 2001, 104 posts, RR: 0
Reply 1, posted (1 year 10 months 5 days 19 hours ago) and read 8862 times:

Also, it is worth mentioning here that the carrier is based in the Americas (as specified in the news release). Also, it is a Letter of Intent at this point.

FDH


User currently offlineDash9 From Canada, joined Nov 2008, 210 posts, RR: 0
Reply 2, posted (1 year 10 months 5 days 19 hours ago) and read 8793 times:

Quoting FDH (Reply 1):
carrier is based in the Americas

True. If it would be north America I think they would have mentioned it. My feeling is its for a central/south American carrier.


Since its a LOI that is not binding, would it be possible for a manufacturer to 'forge' fake LOI to gain momentum on a program? Since there is no financial commitment they don't have to disclose it for stock market regulators. I'm not implying its the case, just asking i it would be possible. Again, I'm surprised by the number of undisclosed customers...


-Dash9


User currently offlineiFlyLOTs From United States of America, joined Apr 2012, 491 posts, RR: 0
Reply 3, posted (1 year 10 months 5 days 19 hours ago) and read 8745 times:

Quoting Dash9 (Reply 2):
True. If it would be north America I think they would have mentioned it. My feeling is its for a central/south American carrier.

That's my feeling too. So who in Central/South America could use a plane like this? AV? LAN? Those would be my guess if they were going to use it as an A318 replacement. But other than that I have no idea who it could be.



"...stay hungry, stay foolish" -Steve Jobs
User currently offlineJoeCanuck From Canada, joined Dec 2005, 5476 posts, RR: 30
Reply 4, posted (1 year 10 months 5 days 18 hours ago) and read 8612 times:

I'm guessing a S.American airline...one that can really use the high/hot/short field capabilities of the aircraft.

Quoting Dash9 (Reply 2):

Since its a LOI that is not binding, would it be possible for a manufacturer to 'forge' fake LOI to gain momentum on a program?

Too easy to have that exposed...which would create all sorts of nasty securities issues. Besides, the CSeries is doing well enough that they don't need an artificial boost, especially this close to first flight.

[Edited 2012-12-19 14:29:38]


What the...?
User currently offlineYVRLTN From Canada, joined Oct 2006, 2490 posts, RR: 0
Reply 5, posted (1 year 10 months 5 days 14 hours ago) and read 8133 times:

LATAM or AV/TA is my guess - former F100 operators.


Follow me on twitter for YVR movements @vernonYVR
User currently offlinetotesen From Mexico, joined Dec 2008, 64 posts, RR: 0
Reply 6, posted (1 year 10 months 5 days 13 hours ago) and read 7916 times:

Quoting YVRLTN (Reply 5):
LATAM or AV/TA is my guess - former F100 operators.

But also TA is currently a Embraer 190 Operator, i really doupt they will change that. Specially if they are merging both companies.



Follow me on Twitter: www.twitter.com/totesen
User currently offlineytz From Canada, joined Jun 2009, 2067 posts, RR: 24
Reply 7, posted (1 year 10 months 5 days 13 hours ago) and read 7916 times:

Fake customer? I doubt it. But I'm curious who ask these mystery customers are. And I can't believe that other airlines and OEMs don't know who they are. They all have teams of business intelligence analysts who would be figuring it out.

User currently offlineJean Leloup From Canada, joined Apr 2001, 2116 posts, RR: 19
Reply 8, posted (1 year 10 months 5 days 13 hours ago) and read 7911 times:

All of these little, unidentified orders... probably good for the program in the long run if they all pan out, but not great at getting the media and public imagination excited.

First flight, whenever it is, can't come soon enough. The consensus seems to be that a successful flight test program, and movement toward production, is what will really determine sales in the medium term. Until then there is just a lot of speculation, and a little frustration/impatience on the part of a.netters, myself included!

JL



Next flight.... who knows.
User currently offlinelightsaber From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 13250 posts, RR: 100
Reply 9, posted (1 year 10 months 5 days 12 hours ago) and read 7806 times:
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Congrats to Bombardier and the C-series. This is good news. If confirmed, it brings the order book to 150!   

I wish it was a firm order, otherwise 2012 will exit with a mere 5 orders. Cest la vie. At least Bombardier has avoided a year with zero sales.   

Quoting Dash9 (Reply 2):
would it be possible for a manufacturer to

Why when they were exposed, and they would be, it would have consequences far worse than any potential benefit.

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 4):
Besides, the CSeries is doing well enough that they don't need an artificial boost, especially this close to first flight.

   It is encouraging to receive a LOI during what is normally a 'dead time' for orders!

Quoting Jean Leloup (Reply 8):
All of these little, unidentified orders... probably good for the program in the long run if they all pan out

Even better when one of those little orders becomes a big one. It all depends on if the plane meets promise or not. If so... sales will build. I fully expect sales to build.

Quoting Jean Leloup (Reply 8):
The consensus seems to be that a successful flight test program, and movement toward production, is what will really determine sales in the medium term.

At this point, any wise airline would wait to see the inflight and possibly in service performance. It is simply a tough time to sell any non-derivative aircraft.

Lightsaber



Societies that achieve a critical mass of ideas achieve self sustaining growth; others stagnate.
User currently offlineytz From Canada, joined Jun 2009, 2067 posts, RR: 24
Reply 10, posted (1 year 10 months 5 days 12 hours ago) and read 7776 times:

@lightsaber

Surprised we haven't seen more LOIs. Airlines could get these for cheap (maybe even free). They get to reserve a spot. Not commit capital. And back out if BBD can't deliver. So why not more LOIs?


User currently offlinemingocr83 From Costa Rica, joined Dec 2007, 70 posts, RR: 0
Reply 11, posted (1 year 10 months 5 days 9 hours ago) and read 7617 times:

Well, AV just announced a order for 15 ATR's. They will replace older ATR42's in Central America, and some will go to AV in different routes.

BUT

TA/LR is not happy with the Embraers because of underbelly constraints with cargo. There are 12 on the fleet as we speak. Could be a possibility though for AV to get this planes...AV has 14 Fokkers... as well 10 F50s and 4 F100s....those 15 planes seems like a match...



A380, A321, A320, A319, 757-200, 737-800WL, 737-700WL, E190
User currently offliner2rho From Germany, joined Feb 2007, 2675 posts, RR: 1
Reply 12, posted (1 year 10 months 5 days 7 hours ago) and read 7448 times:

Quoting Dash9 (Thread starter):
why are there so many CS clients that wish to remain unidentified? Scope clause negotiation?

Strange indeed. I count 5 unidentified customers, of which 3 are even firm orders from back in 2011, and 2 are LOI's from 2012. A total of 40 "unidentified" aircraft (+options) if all are firmed up. All these mystery customers have only ordered the CS100, not the CS300. So your theory of scope clause negotiations being behind sounds plausible...   

Quoting Jean Leloup (Reply 8):
First flight, whenever it is, can't come soon enough. The consensus seems to be that a successful flight test program, and movement toward production, is what will really determine sales in the medium term. Until then there is just a lot of speculation, and a little frustration/impatience

Definitely. Now is a very bad time for orders, with first flight so near and early delivery slots easily available. Why should an airline commit now to an unproven aircraft, when it can wait another 6months or so to see it fly, take their decision based on flight test feedback rather than performance promises, and still get decent delivery slots?

That makes this potentially large LOI order encouraging, as there is no immediate need for an airline to commit to the aircraft at this time. The sooner first flight happens, the sooner we will hear from still hesitating customers.


User currently offlinelightsaber From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 13250 posts, RR: 100
Reply 13, posted (1 year 10 months 5 days 2 hours ago) and read 7125 times:
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Quoting ytz (Reply 10):
Surprised we haven't seen more LOIs.

I'm not, its the wrong time in the development cycle to see. The 717 had years of zero orders due to the risk.

Quoting ytz (Reply 10):
Airlines could get these for cheap (maybe even free). They get to reserve a spot. Not commit capital. And back out if BBD can't deliver. So why not more LOIs?

LOIs might not require a big deposit, but what the airlines care about is delivery slots and those are not assigned until cash is transferred. But it costs to negotiate (very well paid people are doing quite a bit of travel).

Quoting r2rho (Reply 12):
The sooner first flight happens, the sooner we will hear from still hesitating customers.

Agreed. There is a risk to the C-series and as that risk is reduced, orders will flow in.

Quoting r2rho (Reply 12):
Quoting Dash9 (Thread starter):
why are there so many CS clients that wish to remain unidentified? Scope clause negotiation?

Strange indeed. I count 5 unidentified customers,

I speculate it is because these customers do not want Boeing and Airbus to know until they are certain the C-series delivers. There was speculation about Bombardier going after small customers when the program was launched. These customers are exactly the type that need the CS100 but also would not want to cross the big suppliers.

Lightsaber



Societies that achieve a critical mass of ideas achieve self sustaining growth; others stagnate.
User currently onlineBlueSky1976 From Poland, joined Jul 2004, 1896 posts, RR: 5
Reply 14, posted (1 year 10 months 5 days 1 hour ago) and read 6942 times:

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 13):
I speculate it is because these customers do not want Boeing and Airbus to know until they are certain the C-series delivers. There was speculation about Bombardier going after small customers when the program was launched. These customers are exactly the type that need the CS100 but also would not want to cross the big suppliers.

I expect 2014 to be a big year for CSeries. That's when the plane will start flying in revenue service and the real operational numbers will hit the air.

There will be one facepalm after another in both Chicago and Toulouse.



STOP TERRORRUSSIA!!!
User currently offlinelostsound From Canada, joined May 2012, 232 posts, RR: 0
Reply 15, posted (1 year 10 months 5 days 1 hour ago) and read 6597 times:

If the C-Series flying prototype makes it off the ground and to air shows next year, I suspect the order book will grow fairly quickly at those visits.

[Edited 2012-12-20 07:50:16]


"Our hands are full, our lives are not"
User currently offlinedavs5032 From United States of America, joined Sep 2010, 394 posts, RR: 0
Reply 16, posted (1 year 10 months 4 days 23 hours ago) and read 6003 times:

Now would be a great time for our "BBD insider" to share with us some more pictures/details if he's got them   ...don't remember his username, but IIRC he carries a Spanish flag. Last update he gave us was a couple of weeks ago, when the wings' arrival was anticipated. I'm curious to see how the plane is progressing.

Quoting lostsound (Reply 15):
If the C-Series flying prototype makes it off the ground and to air shows next year, I suspect the order book will grow fairly quickly at those visits.

Having a CS100 and an A359 both present & competing for air show attention would be incredible!


User currently offlinesebring From Canada, joined Jul 2004, 1665 posts, RR: 14
Reply 17, posted (1 year 10 months 4 days 22 hours ago) and read 5483 times:

Another order, this one firm, for 10 CSeries aircraft

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe...r-10-c-series-jets/article6595902/

[Edited 2012-12-20 10:31:58]

User currently offlinebtblue From United Kingdom, joined Mar 2004, 579 posts, RR: 4
Reply 18, posted (1 year 10 months 4 days 22 hours ago) and read 5431 times:
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Could it be possible we will see a flurry of orders given the unavailability of the NEO and MAX as orders have built up with A and B? The next best thing being the CSeries?


146/2/3 737/2/3/4/5/7/8/9 A320 1/2/18/19/21 DC9/40/50 DC10/30 A300/6 A330/2/3 A340/3/6 A380 757/2/3 747/4 767/3/4 787 77
User currently offlinebonusonus From United States of America, joined Nov 2009, 403 posts, RR: 0
Reply 19, posted (1 year 10 months 4 days 22 hours ago) and read 5390 times:

Quoting r2rho (Reply 12):
Strange indeed. I count 5 unidentified customers, of which 3 are even firm orders from back in 2011

Including the launch customer. Bombardier and its suppliers should be well into designing for this configuration (and I'm assuming they are), yet still no disclosure. When do you think we will see it? Paris?


User currently onlineseabosdca From United States of America, joined Sep 2007, 5589 posts, RR: 6
Reply 20, posted (1 year 10 months 4 days 22 hours ago) and read 5390 times:

Quoting btblue (Reply 18):
Could it be possible we will see a flurry of orders given the unavailability of the NEO and MAX as orders have built up with A and B? The next best thing being the CSeries?

The order book strongly implies that the CSeries is already beating the neo and MAX where they compete. The 737 MAX 7 has zero orders and the A319neo has relatively few.


User currently offlineytz From Canada, joined Jun 2009, 2067 posts, RR: 24
Reply 21, posted (1 year 10 months 4 days 22 hours ago) and read 5233 times:

Quoting seabosdca (Reply 20):
The order book strongly implies that the CSeries is already beating the neo and MAX where they compete. The 737 MAX 7 has zero orders and the A319neo has relatively few.

CS500 will really put a dent into the MAX and NEO programs. I fully expect EZY to go all in, if (or rather when) BBD launches the CS500.

Till the CS500, I expect orders will be a steady drip rather than a torrent.


User currently offlinebtblue From United Kingdom, joined Mar 2004, 579 posts, RR: 4
Reply 22, posted (1 year 10 months 4 days 20 hours ago) and read 4743 times:
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Quoting seabosdca (Reply 20):
The order book strongly implies that the CSeries is already beating the neo and MAX where they compete. The 737 MAX 7 has zero orders and the A319neo has relatively few.

Thanks for clarifying that. Didn't know so have discovered something new.  



146/2/3 737/2/3/4/5/7/8/9 A320 1/2/18/19/21 DC9/40/50 DC10/30 A300/6 A330/2/3 A340/3/6 A380 757/2/3 747/4 767/3/4 787 77
User currently offlineflood From United States of America, joined Feb 2009, 1381 posts, RR: 1
Reply 23, posted (1 year 10 months 4 days 19 hours ago) and read 4421 times:

A North American carrier, according to ATW:
http://atwonline.com/aircraft-engine...erican-carrier-buy-30-cseries-1220


User currently offlinebonusonus From United States of America, joined Nov 2009, 403 posts, RR: 0
Reply 24, posted (1 year 10 months 4 days 19 hours ago) and read 4383 times:

Actual press release here. Unless ATW has a source that we don't know about, they are simply misreading the press release. http://www.bombardier.com/en/corpora...ses/details?docID=0901260d8027f220

25 Post contains links BD500 : Before we get some information from an "insider" Bombardier released a video about the Air Baltic order and we can see in the background the A/C as w
26 BlueSky1976 : Both 737-700 and A319 became slowest selling variant of their families for some time now. I think at this point, there is only one firm order for A31
27 spiritair97 : I really doubt that the a319 and 737-700 will share the fate of the a318. Firstly, the 737-700 is a very popular aircraft. WN has 383, with 189 on or
28 czbbflier : It's a ploy. It's called WORLD DOMINATION BY STEALTH. Watch out A and B. The Canadians are coming! Moua ha ha ha!
29 danimarroquin : I really smell like this is gonna be AV to replace the ex mexicana A319 and A318 , that where leased only for 5 years !
30 Jean Leloup : Nope, it is you who are not only mostly, but completely wrong. Either you have not fully read the comment you are criticizing, or you are completely
31 Post contains images lightsaber : Exciting! Latvian, so not a 'customer in the Americas.' Well done Bombardier! I'm amused Wikipedia was already updated. I've posted in other threads h
32 lostsound : Air Canada recently said they were looking at CSeries. I highly doubt they've decided this quickly however.
33 BlueSky1976 : Well, if you like to be so picky, please read my comment again as you have clearly misunderstood it. I bolded the key phrases for your convenience: R
34 SHAQ : I don't know why you are saying that the 737-7 have no orders, if there are airlines that haven't decided which model they want. ( GOL)
35 Post contains images faro : The CS series is really 'The Next Big Thing' in short haul. Once flight testing is complete and in-service reliability is chalked up, we should expec
36 Post contains images r2rho : It only adds to the mystery that the launch customer for the CS100 is not known yet... BBD will not have yet started building that frame, but the cab
37 BlueSky1976 : I am not so sure. Back in the day, when Boeing was launching 737NG family, a large chunk of the orders went for the -700 model. Similarly, for A319,
38 Post contains links ytz : Only if our Maple Syrup reserve doesn't get attacked! http://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/20/bu...ft-from-quebec-warehouse.html?_r=0 Please see my comment
39 MesaFlyGuy : Based on what you wrote, it seems like you simply missed that they were talking of the a319neo and 737-7max. They have been slow sellers, and might j
40 JoeCanuck : Orders for the 737-700 and 319 have been slowing for some time, in relation to their larger brethren. As the price of fuel rises, the seat/mile econo
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