thekennady From United States of America, joined Nov 2008, 71 posts, RR: 0 Reply 3, posted (4 months 3 weeks 1 day 23 hours ago) and read 1658 times:
Rumor/word was that NH applied to add a second daily NRT flight from ORD this summer. Maybe they can pick up the KIX market instead with a 787. Would be the perfect plane for it. With ORD Europe being mostly covered, i believe Asia could be the main target market for new routes with the 787 out of ORD. Any other potential ORD 787 routes come to mind? Could some some south america routes work such as EZE? this time with the right plane?
IrishAyes From United States of America, joined Jan 2008, 1727 posts, RR: 6 Reply 6, posted (4 months 3 weeks 15 hours ago) and read 1175 times:
This is a tough question. On one hand, I constantly hear how demand from the US to Japan is trending downward, yet NH just announced a second daily ORDNRT flight, (although obviously that will cater to more than just US-Japan demand). However, I'd argue that an ORD-KIX/NGO flight is probably more "at risk" from any shifting demand trends just by the nature of how connections and business ties play into the game.
If I were to say go vs. no-go, I'd say no-go. On the Japan side, NH and JL are obviously utilizing their 787s to open up new "thin" routes to US markets such as SEA, BOS, SAN and SJC. On the American side, the approach is similar, but China seems to be the larger focus right now.
Quoting thekennady (Reply 5):
TLV, TPE, CAI may also be able to support a 787 flight to ORD
Hmm.. CAI is constantly in political flux. Also, not many business ties to Chicago. Don't see it coming.
TLV also has political constraints (Cat II, etc). that don't seem to have this one largely on the radar for now.
TPE is more likely, especially with BR joining Star. I would personally be thrilled to see a nonstop ORD-TPE flight.
UA787DEN From United States of America, joined Dec 2012, 291 posts, RR: 0 Reply 8, posted (4 months 3 weeks 6 hours ago) and read 922 times:
CAI isn't the big name 787 destination most US people want. Political mess. Asia is where most will go. Longer flights let them enjoy the benifits of 787 economics more, and the market is growing fast. KIX will probably return to LAX or ORD. Not NGO. TPE could work. China-LAX/SFO/ORD and EWR/IAH-Middle east might happen.
AADC10 From United States of America, joined Nov 2004, 1831 posts, RR: 0 Reply 9, posted (4 months 3 weeks ago) and read 834 times:
Quoting STT757 (Reply 4): I can see UA re-launching SFO-NGO and possibly LAX-KIX with the 787.
I doubt both of them. SFO-NGO was launched in part because of the Toyota/GM NUMMI plant in Fremont but the plant closed in 2010. Executive and cargo traffic have declined on the route as a result. LAX-KIX seems unlikely since UA had to reduce LAX-NRT to a 787. If LAX-NRT can only support a 787 then how is KIX going to do it? The existing SFO-KIX might go to a 787 at least seasonally.
Going back to the original topic, there is little O&D demand for KIX or NGO out of ORD. SFO can effectively collect demand for KIX from the entire UA network, while ORD leaves out the west coast, where a large portion of the demand for KIX originates. If SFO-NGO can't make it, ORD-NGO has no chance.
I do not think that the 787 will add routes to marginal destinations or open new destinations in the short term. I think it and the converted ghetto birds will mostly fill some hub to existing major destination routes such as the announced DEN-NRT on the 787 and SFO-CDG on the reconfigured 2-class 763. SEA-NRT might be in range of some 767 configurations although cargo considerations may keep it a 772 or downgauge to a 787 when available. Also, part of the announced plan is to seasonally alternate 772s with 787s and 767s between destinations in the northern and southern hemispheres.