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WSJ-E: LOT To Get Rid Of Almost Half Its Fleet  
User currently online76er From Netherlands, joined Mar 2007, 539 posts, RR: 1
Posted (1 year 8 months 4 weeks 1 day 15 hours ago) and read 24507 times:

Quite shocking, if true. It seems the 787's are to stick around though.

source: http://blogs.wsj.com/emergingeurope/...ling-polish-airline-lot-to-shrink/

65 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineKL911 From Czech Republic, joined Jul 2003, 5147 posts, RR: 15
Reply 1, posted (1 year 8 months 4 weeks 1 day 14 hours ago) and read 24457 times:

Sad, but not really surprising. Eastern Europe is very well covered by LCC's. Hard to compete with them when your cost base is too high. Warsaw might follow Budapest in becoming a LCC only base.

User currently offlineg500 From United States of America, joined Oct 2011, 979 posts, RR: 0
Reply 2, posted (1 year 8 months 4 weeks 1 day 14 hours ago) and read 24431 times:
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The 787s better stick around, otherwise they'd have to pay Boeing a huge cancellation fee. Money they might not have

Think of Malev, shrink the fleet or close the shop... If they're leaking red ink, this might be a good step


User currently onlinescbriml From United Kingdom, joined Jul 2003, 12573 posts, RR: 46
Reply 3, posted (1 year 8 months 4 weeks 1 day 14 hours ago) and read 24404 times:
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Quoting g500 (Reply 2):
The 787s better stick around, otherwise they'd have to pay Boeing a huge cancellation fee.

Given how late their 787s are, I'd be amazed if any cancellation fees still applied.



Time flies like an arrow, but fruit flies like a banana!
User currently offlineBestWestern From Hong Kong, joined Sep 2000, 7165 posts, RR: 57
Reply 4, posted (1 year 8 months 4 weeks 1 day 14 hours ago) and read 24353 times:

Without feed, LO's Asian ambitions will not be successful. There is probably enough point to point traffic for US markets to be successful.


The world is really getting smaller these days
User currently offlinejfk777 From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 8391 posts, RR: 7
Reply 5, posted (1 year 8 months 4 weeks 1 day 14 hours ago) and read 24328 times:
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Must mean 737 are gone, since LOT like their Embraer planes.

User currently offlinemloew From Germany, joined Oct 2011, 32 posts, RR: 0
Reply 6, posted (1 year 8 months 4 weeks 1 day 14 hours ago) and read 24208 times:

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 5):
Must mean 737 are gone, since LOT like their Embraer planes.

Jep, think that the EMBs go over to euroLOT, which is be 'the other government-regulated airline' the article speaks of. They currently have 13 ATRs and 8 Dash 8s, maybe the remaining ATRs will also go.

[Edited 2013-01-05 08:02:11]

[Edited 2013-01-05 08:04:19]


Proudly flying Oman Air
User currently offlineKC135TopBoom From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 12150 posts, RR: 51
Reply 7, posted (1 year 8 months 4 weeks 1 day 14 hours ago) and read 24063 times:

LO had already planned on retiring their B-737s and replacing them with the E-175/-195s. They are also rplacing their remaining B-767-300ERs with the B-787-8. I can see LO dumping all of their E-170s and most of the E-175s. Two E-175s are leased to the Polish defense ministry because of the PolAF Tu-154 crash back in 2010.

LO currently has 2 B-787s with 6 more on order.


User currently onlineBlueSky1976 From Poland, joined Jul 2004, 1889 posts, RR: 4
Reply 8, posted (1 year 8 months 4 weeks 1 day 11 hours ago) and read 23396 times:

LO recently received 400 million zlotys (around 150 mil. USD) of government help. The government calls it "repayable loan", but I hope EU knows better than that and demands it to be returned back, forcing inefficient carrier to shut down for good.


STOP TERRORRUSSIA!!!
User currently offlineirshava From Ukraine, joined Oct 2011, 214 posts, RR: 0
Reply 9, posted (1 year 8 months 4 weeks 1 day 8 hours ago) and read 22310 times:

Really turbulent times for Eastern European carriers.. Malev, Aerosvit, and now LOT... I wonder how this will turn out.


“If you were born without wings, do nothing to prevent them from growing.”
User currently offlinesweair From Sweden, joined Nov 2011, 1824 posts, RR: 0
Reply 10, posted (1 year 8 months 4 weeks 1 day 8 hours ago) and read 22065 times:

LOTs 787s could be taken by BA? RR engines, european airline etc..

User currently offlineUnited885 From Germany, joined Apr 2011, 63 posts, RR: 0
Reply 11, posted (1 year 8 months 4 weeks 1 day 8 hours ago) and read 21752 times:

There are a lot of european customers which ordered the 787 with RR engines. (I remember VS, UX and FI)
But I can´t believe that one of them would take LOT´s delivered and undelivered Dreamliner if they should be sold...



I haven´t been everywhere, but it´s on my list.
User currently offlineAF022 From France, joined Dec 2003, 2162 posts, RR: 1
Reply 12, posted (1 year 8 months 4 weeks 1 day 7 hours ago) and read 21053 times:

Does LO have Q400s?
CH-Aviation doesn't show any.


User currently offlinedebonair From Germany, joined Jan 2004, 2435 posts, RR: 4
Reply 13, posted (1 year 8 months 4 weeks 1 day 6 hours ago) and read 20544 times:

Quoting AF022 (Reply 12):
Does LO have Q400s?

No own ones - these DASH8Q400 are operated by eurolot SA.


User currently offlineboeing773ER From United States of America, joined Dec 2011, 433 posts, RR: 0
Reply 14, posted (1 year 8 months 4 weeks 1 day 4 hours ago) and read 19088 times:

I'm confused as to why LOT can not get a bailout from Poland, which is their owners (well the Treasury of Poland)

Since the treasury is their parent company shouldn't they be allowed to inject as much cash as they need? In my mind that's like BA asking IAG for money. Of course IAG is privately held but it is the parent company of BA.

I don't understand European politics really, can someone explain to me why the government who owns the airline can't invest money into it?



Work Hard, Fly Right.
User currently offlineDLT123 From United States of America, joined Oct 2012, 150 posts, RR: 0
Reply 15, posted (1 year 8 months 4 weeks 1 day 4 hours ago) and read 19071 times:

Quoting boeing773ER (Reply 15):
I don't understand European politics really, can someone explain to me why the government who owns the airline can't invest money into it?

It would construed be an anti-competitive subsidy that is likely to be prohibited by EU law.


User currently offlineAkiestar From Philippines, joined May 2009, 786 posts, RR: 0
Reply 16, posted (1 year 8 months 4 weeks 1 day 4 hours ago) and read 18866 times:

Quoting KL911 (Reply 1):
Warsaw might follow Budapest in becoming a LCC only base.

I highly doubt that. For one, Warsaw's market is significantly larger than that at Budapest, despite having a smaller catchment area (BUD essentially serves all of Hungary, while WAW/WMI serves only the eastern parts of Poland). LOT also benefits from a large Polish diaspora in the U.S. and Canada, making trans-Atlantic flying profitable for them.

Much as the Poles love W6 and FR, I doubt that Warsaw (and Poland as a whole) is that low-yielding, especially with the Polish economy doing so well compared to the rest of Europe, that it will suddenly see the imminent collapse of LOT, and in a flash become LCC-only.


User currently offlineBestWestern From Hong Kong, joined Sep 2000, 7165 posts, RR: 57
Reply 17, posted (1 year 8 months 4 weeks 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 18030 times:

I give LOT twenty-four months at maximum. They will lose a fortune on their Asian routes, and part of their 787 fleet will be offloaded.

Quoting Akiestar (Reply 17):
making trans-Atlantic flying profitable for them.

I doubt that Trans-Atlantic flying is profitable for them - probably less loss making. The 787 will help this.

Quoting Akiestar (Reply 17):
I doubt that Warsaw (and Poland as a whole) is that low-yielding, especially with the Polish economy doing so well compared to the rest of Europe

The polish market is notoriously low yielding, and WAW is an expensive airport to be handled in.

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 7):
LO had already planned on retiring their B-737s and replacing them with the E-175/-195s.

The 737s were due to go to Central wings, and be replaced by the excellent E Jets.

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 7):
Two E-175s are leased to the Polish defense ministry because of the PolAF Tu-154 crash back in 2010.
Quoting mloew (Reply 6):
Jep, think that the EMBs go over to euroLOT, which is be 'the other government-regulated airline' the article speaks of.

Moving over part of the fleet sounds like a short term answer, solving none of the problems, as the loss making nature doesn't go away. Actually, this sounds like a political decision.



The world is really getting smaller these days
User currently offlinemke717spotter From United States of America, joined Dec 2005, 2458 posts, RR: 5
Reply 18, posted (1 year 8 months 4 weeks 23 hours ago) and read 16754 times:

This sure sounds disappointing, but when they say the fleet is going to be downsized, how much of this is what we already knew? They currently have 4 767s, 8 737 classics, 11 ATRs, and I think its safe to assume that those frames were already going to be phased out. The fleet is going to be made up of Q400s, 787s, and E-170/190s.

Quoting BestWestern (Reply 18):
They will lose a fortune on their Asian routes


Does anyone know how WAW-PEK is doing? I know that one of the main reasons they got 787s was to start up routes to Asia, but obviously HAN didn't work and I'm skeptical as to whether LO can actually fill seats on these routes. ORD, JFK, and YYZ work because they are in large Polish population centers.



Will you watch the Cleveland Browns and the Detroit Lions on Sunday? Only if coach Eric Mangini resigned after a loss.
User currently offlineBestWestern From Hong Kong, joined Sep 2000, 7165 posts, RR: 57
Reply 19, posted (1 year 8 months 4 weeks 21 hours ago) and read 16024 times:

Quoting mke717spotter (Reply 23):
Does anyone know how WAW-PEK is doing? I know that one of the main reasons they got 787s was to start up routes to Asia, but obviously HAN didn't work and I'm skeptical as to whether LO can actually fill seats on these routes. ORD, JFK, and YYZ work because they are in large Polish population centers.

HAN was never going to work. PEK has a chance, as it is a Star hub, but connecting with Air China isn't easy. Without feed from europe, and high point to point yields, this route will not work. This route will have neither.



The world is really getting smaller these days
User currently offlinemilan320 From Canada, joined Jan 2005, 869 posts, RR: 11
Reply 20, posted (1 year 8 months 4 weeks 21 hours ago) and read 16304 times:

Would be sad if LOT were to shut down, given it's history and the fact that it's one of the oldest airlines in the world.
Hope they stick around. The service in general on their European routes is good and comfortable.



I accept bribes ... :-)
User currently offlineBestWestern From Hong Kong, joined Sep 2000, 7165 posts, RR: 57
Reply 21, posted (1 year 8 months 4 weeks 20 hours ago) and read 16031 times:

Quoting milan320 (Reply 25):
The service in general on their European routes is good and comfortable.

Their European service is excellent. However, perception in western Europe remains that LOT service does not merit a premium. With the attack of the low cost players, quality doesn't pay anymore, and their cost based does not permit a low cost operation - they tried that with central wings.

I fear that Lot will follow Malev into the history books. Long Haul from the Balkans, Eastern Europe and the Balkans is notoriously tough. Look to Romania, Ukraine, Hungary and the Czech Republic for recent examples. Poland is no different, but for their large diaspora in North America.



The world is really getting smaller these days
User currently offlineLJ From Netherlands, joined Nov 1999, 4435 posts, RR: 0
Reply 22, posted (1 year 8 months 4 weeks 18 hours ago) and read 15024 times:

Quoting United885 (Reply 11):
There are a lot of european customers which ordered the 787 with RR engines. (I remember VS, UX and FI)
But I can´t believe that one of them would take LOT´s delivered and undelivered Dreamliner if they should be sold...

Why? UX may need some additional planes after IBs downsizing of their long haul destinations. To be honest I'm still trying to figure out from where they'll soource the additional A330s they need for their recent increases to some long haul destinations

Quoting BestWestern (Reply 24):

HAN was never going to work. PEK has a chance, as it is a Star hub, but connecting with Air China isn't easy. Without feed from europe, and high point to point yields, this route will not work. This route will have neither.

It will be interesting if NRT and ICN will be opened given their financial situation (and new route structure). AFAIK their original plan was to open these destinations after they've replaced the 787 on the current 767 routes. However, as you correctly point out, how are they going to sustain flights to these stations when they don't get enough feed?


User currently offlinesweair From Sweden, joined Nov 2011, 1824 posts, RR: 0
Reply 23, posted (1 year 8 months 4 weeks 18 hours ago) and read 14749 times:

Quoting United885 (Reply 11):

With the backlog of the 788 I think it is pretty easy to find new owners, even if you have to change the cabin interior, some airlines would probably prefer a chance to get some frames a few years earlier than planned? The backlog is what 5 or 6 years!?


User currently offlineEHRD From Netherlands, joined Jun 2005, 66 posts, RR: 0
Reply 24, posted (1 year 8 months 4 weeks 16 hours ago) and read 13734 times:

Quoting mke717spotter (Reply 23):
Does anyone know how WAW-PEK is doing?

Last october I flew AMS-WAW-PEK and back and the loads on the flights between WAW and PEK were were good in economy, I think about 90%. Don't know about businessclass. A lot of transit passengers on board, some of them coming from AMS.
Also a lot of Chinese people on board, I think most of them work in Poland.

The good loads in economy doesn't say anything. I paid € 496,- for a returnticket from AMS to PEK. Don't know how many tickets are sold for this price but I can understand LO won't make a lot of money when selling tickets for € 496,-.

[Edited 2013-01-06 05:41:13]

25 ltbewr : Wouldn't some of those 767's be quite old? If I recall correctly, LOT was one of the first Soviet Bloc countries to operate USA/Euro aircraft, includi
26 skiaplg : It would be sad to see the end of LOT. I flew with them between CDG and WAW in 2011 on an E175, and it was certainly some of the best european service
27 dcann40 : It's been a rough couple of years for Eastern European airlines. Unfortunately, whatever LOT did in 2011 hasn't quite met its needs.
28 BestWestern : It's ok offering discounted transit fares when your home market can deliver a premium. However, Warsaw doesn't deliver a premium yield. As AMS serves
29 KC135TopBoom : I think LO will take all 8 of the B-788 order. They may have one or two of them configuered for the Polish Presidential airplane.
30 ordwaw : B788 is not even an option for a specially configured Presidential airplane. It is too expensive, and Polish government does not have a need for such
31 BlueSky1976 : ...if LO would still exist in 2015. So far, they are taking 5 in 2013. If EU Court rules against the government so-called "loan", its "do widzenia, n
32 WROORD : The article has a few catch phrases, but nothing concrete. The downsizing or unifying of fleet was planned for some time. As LO gets their 787s they a
33 apruzesse13 : Over the last 3 years, LOT Group, including EuroLOT, has taken delivery of 23 new aircraft: - 8 new ERJ 175 - 5 new ERJ 195 - 2 new B787 - 8 new Q400
34 marcinGDN : Actually 6 B788, and as far as I know 1 E95. The Q400 fleet is to reach 20. For me the Q400 does not make sense with a large E70/75 fleet of 22. They
35 AF022 : Are they going to focus on either Q400 or E, or are they keeping both?
36 apruzesse13 : Agreed. K2 is even a greater basket case as LOT. The funny thing is that the government already bailed out LOT by buying from them around 70% of K2 a
37 marcinGDN : keep E75/95, get rid of E70 just like the 14 ERJs. K2 will have to bailed out sooner than we think, it is some weird C0-turboprop hybrid. There is al
38 Post contains links Viscount724 : No they can't. EU comments related to recent approval of restrucuring aid for Czech Airlines. See the "Background" section. http://europa.eu/rapid/pr
39 dcann40 : I suppose it really was an over expansion, based on the planned contraction.
40 DLT123 : I just hope LOT will be able to launch its Dreamliner overseas flights later this month. Any word on that?
41 boeing773ER : Thanks for the those replies, I knew it was ilegal but I was just not sure how that worked out. I really hope this all works out for LO, it seems lik
42 VC10er : It would be very sad to see such a vet of the skies disappear. How is CSA doing? If they were to go under I'd assume UA would jump on opening ORD nons
43 dcann40 : Speaking of which, who does offer non-stops to WAW besides LOT (from the U.S.) and from where? Anyone know?
44 Post contains images ordwaw : Nobody. The only non-stops from Poland to North America are on LOT ... - WAW-ORD - WAW-JFK - WAW-YYZ Last year there was also one time WAW-IAD on US
45 airbazar : And there lies the biggest disadvantage of being owned by the government. EU law prohibits airlines from taking any government money. IAG is not a go
46 delta777jet : You would be surprised to hear that EuroLOT also operate EMB 170 AND including the presidential Embraer aircraft. You are right, but their current le
47 marcinGDN : Indeed, K2 leases 2E75 as VIP planes and one to LO. The governmental deal is very lucrative, thus they burn evern more cash flying their own routes. I
48 DLT123 : I just looked at Lot's website and you can still buy tickets for the Dreamliner launch flight. It's $547 in coach (I think) and $4100 in business. May
49 ordwaw : Looking at WAW-ORD-WAW leaving 1/16 and returning 1/23 one can travel on - KL/AF/DL/LH/BA for $597-650 or - LO for $1,042 60-75% is a pretty hefty pr
50 Hoya : How quickly are they getting rid of the 763s? Wouldn't it be more of a chance of cancellation? Though I assume since they have two 787s, one would ba
51 dcann40 : I presume for the launch flights, one will back up the other. Re getting rid fo the 763s, I guess it depends on how quickly they get more 787s.
52 LO231 : Don't fotget the Polish being proud. If necessary, they will collect money in churches to save LO. Kidding.
53 Post contains images FlyingAY : You are comparing a direct flight with a non-direct option. 400 dollars to avoid AMS, CDG, LHR and be home earlier is not that much. 787 is a nice bo
54 ordwaw : I agree, to a business traveler flying to/from WAW it is a small amount to pay for a non-stop, and to an enthusiast, it is a great opportunity to fly
55 DLT123 : It all depends on where LOT sees its revenue coming from. Almost all airlines get the majority of revenue on a flight from business/first and freight
56 ordwaw : Good point. I agree. One of the reasons why RZE-JFK-RZE flights were cancelled was the fact that the planes were flying with almost empty J cabin. Th
57 dcann40 : Agreed. It looks as if LOT is making an extra effort in this area and indeed should add strength to the argument to fly LOT.
58 DLT123 : For at least the next short while, LOT's plans to retire the 763s will be put on hold. Given LOT's precarious situation, however, will the Dreamliner
59 nrt1011 : I am trying to imagine the Management meeting where the 787's were recommended and approved. Did they not know back then that this would not be a good
60 na : Two 737s have already being withdrawn from use in the past three months.
61 Polot : LOT was a early customer for the 787, ordering it first back in 2005 and about a month before the industrial launch of the original A350. What exactl
62 dcann40 : Good analysis of LOT's situation. It's clear that the airline made the right choice at the time and certainly would have been behind the eightball in
63 Cubsrule : Polish roads are generally awful, but you are overplaying your hand a bit here. All of those drives are doable in 4 hours, and on a good day WAW-KRK
64 Post contains images ordwaw : If after getting off at WAW from a TATL flight from ORD, YYZ, or JFK, and given a mid-level rental car, you can manage to get from the Chopin airport
65 Cubsrule : I expect that the drive to Gdansk isn't very hard now, though I confess that I haven't lived in Poland since 2006 and there were many fewer controlle
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