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Another 30 A380 For EK?  
User currently offlineoldeuropean From Germany, joined May 2005, 2068 posts, RR: 4
Posted (1 year 6 months 6 days 4 hours ago) and read 16466 times:

Tim Clark: EK consider to order another 30 A380s:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-0...rjumbos-for-network-expansion.html


Wer wenig weiss muss vieles glauben
66 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 30434 posts, RR: 84
Reply 1, posted (1 year 6 months 6 days 4 hours ago) and read 16401 times:
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Well JL said he had a large order in the works and a number of folks thought it could be another major top-up from EK...

User currently offlineEPA001 From Netherlands, joined Sep 2006, 4673 posts, RR: 38
Reply 2, posted (1 year 6 months 6 days 4 hours ago) and read 16201 times:
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Quoting Stitch (Reply 1):
Well JL said he had a large order in the works and a number of folks thought it could be another major top-up from EK...

Well, as always time will tell.   But they are going to need that new airport in Dubai now pretty soon. Where else can they park all these A380's, B77W's and the A350's to come.  


User currently offlineKC135Hydraulics From United States of America, joined Nov 2012, 289 posts, RR: 0
Reply 3, posted (1 year 6 months 6 days 4 hours ago) and read 16200 times:

Is there really the need?? I can't imagine the necessity.

User currently offlinestarrion From United States of America, joined Jul 2003, 1126 posts, RR: 2
Reply 4, posted (1 year 6 months 6 days 4 hours ago) and read 16072 times:

at what point does top-up become over-the-top-up?

Or is the plan to start cycling units out of the fleet?



Knowledge Replaces Fear
User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 30434 posts, RR: 84
Reply 5, posted (1 year 6 months 6 days 4 hours ago) and read 16014 times:
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Quoting starrion (Reply 4):
Or is the plan to start cycling units out of the fleet?

A good number (if not majority) of EK's frames are on 12-year leases, so they will certainly be placing replacement orders.


User currently offlineSteelyman From Andorra, joined Feb 2007, 118 posts, RR: 1
Reply 6, posted (1 year 6 months 6 days 4 hours ago) and read 15984 times:

It is really interesting that in DXB you can see enormous rows of aircrafts seating in the tarmac for many hours and they still order 380 while they don't put up on the air their actual planes...


BRGDS, Mike
User currently onlineUnited885 From Germany, joined Apr 2011, 56 posts, RR: 0
Reply 7, posted (1 year 6 months 6 days 4 hours ago) and read 15945 times:

120 A380.
That´s an unbelievable number!
But why not? They have 5 daily flights to LHR on it´s own...I guess one day, EK will serve even the smallest airports with multiple A380 flights daily 



I haven´t been everywhere, but it´s on my list.
User currently offlineKarelXWB From Netherlands, joined Jul 2012, 10366 posts, RR: 30
Reply 8, posted (1 year 6 months 6 days 3 hours ago) and read 15638 times:

Quoting starrion (Reply 4):
Or is the plan to start cycling units out of the fleet?

Both. EK wants 120 whalejets but they will have to replace the older frames in the near feature. So expect a few new orders between today and 2020.



Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity. And I'm not sure about the universe.
User currently offlineOzGlobal From France, joined Nov 2004, 2711 posts, RR: 4
Reply 9, posted (1 year 6 months 6 days 3 hours ago) and read 15560 times:

Quoting KC135Hydraulics (Reply 3):
Is there really the need?? I can't imagine the necessity.

This is partly about developing demand, not just servicing it. 707's were big when no one but the wealthy could afford to fly, but they and 747's introduced 'tourist' class and the capacity tapped new demand. A huge new middle class is developing in China, India and other high growth markets. More and more people are travelling long haul more readily and more often in the world. Out of 8 Billion inhabitants, how many fly today on this planet today?

Your text exactly is what many US members wrote in the relation to the very idea of the A380 project. Now that it is delivered and EK is building its growth largely and successfully on the aircraft, we hear the same again, "can't imagine the necessity". Clearly the US aviation market dynamics are not those of other parts or even most parts of the world. Further, when I see the number of A380s now at JFK and LAX, I wonder if US carriers didn't just get that wrong too.



When all's said and done, there'll be more said than done.
User currently onlinescbriml From United Kingdom, joined Jul 2003, 12284 posts, RR: 47
Reply 10, posted (1 year 6 months 6 days 1 hour ago) and read 14929 times:
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Quoting KC135Hydraulics (Reply 3):
Is there really the need?? I can't imagine the necessity.

Have you seen their passenger numbers and the sustained year-on-year growth in those numbers?

Quoting starrion (Reply 4):
at what point does top-up become over-the-top-up?

When their passenger numbers stop growing?

It's odd that EK ordering 50 77Ws at a throw isn't generally seen as "ridiculous". Why is that?  

Quoting Stitch (Reply 1):
Well JL said he had a large order in the works and a number of folks thought it could be another major top-up from EK...

Indeed. It could be that an MoU/LoI has already been signed. If it has, I would expect a firm order at the Dubai air show in November. Then again, the postulated "significant order" could be something else all together.



Time flies like an arrow, but fruit flies like a banana!
User currently offlinegreenwichsud From United States of America, joined May 2008, 60 posts, RR: 0
Reply 11, posted (1 year 6 months 6 days 1 hour ago) and read 14768 times:

Quoting OzGlobal (Reply 9):
Your text exactly is what many US members wrote in the relation to the very idea of the A380 project. Now that it is delivered and EK is building its growth largely and successfully on the aircraft, we hear the same again, "can't imagine the necessity". Clearly the US aviation market dynamics are not those of other parts or even most parts of the world. Further, when I see the number of A380s now at JFK and LAX, I wonder if US carriers didn't just get that wrong too.

No one is denying that that the global aviation market is growing at a rate faster than that of the US. That is the definition of a mature market: 1. all demand that can be stimulated has been tapped and 2. population and wealth growth in the US, for the most part, is typical of that of a mature nation. That is not the case in much of the world and there is clearly much more demand to be tapped beyond US O&D. With that said, when you read about the woes of the European carriers (AF being in worse shape than most), QF and, more recently SQ, one must wonder if there is enough room at this growing table for everyone.

Quoting OzGlobal (Reply 9):
Further, when I see the number of A380s now at JFK and LAX, I wonder if US carriers didn't just get that wrong too.

The revenue numbers from the stronger US carriers (none of whom fly A380s) indicate otherwise.


User currently offlineJAAlbert From United States of America, joined Jan 2006, 1542 posts, RR: 1
Reply 12, posted (1 year 6 months 6 days ago) and read 14717 times:

Quoting scbriml (Reply 10):
Quoting KC135Hydraulics (Reply 3):
Is there really the need?? I can't imagine the necessity.

Have you seen their passenger numbers and the sustained year-on-year growth in those numbers?
Quoting scbriml (Reply 10):
It's odd that EK ordering 50 77Ws at a throw isn't generally seen as "ridiculous". Why is that?


Okay, I'll say it - ordering 50 77Ws at a pop sounds ridiculous!

Having on hand 120 380s also sounds outrageous. Of course, Mr. Clark knows far better than us a.netters how many aircraft he needs and if he needs 50 new 77Ws and 120 380s, of course he should have them straight away. And yes, it seems he's making mountains of money flying these things around. I think what we are all breathless about is the shear size of these orders. No other carrier orders widebodies in such numbers - and certainly not in a single order or so. A thread a few years ago listed the largest 747s operators of the time. JAL had 70 or so 747s, BA had north of 50. Those are big airplanes and big fleets. EK comes along and intends on almost doubling the size of the largest 747 fleet with the even larger 380. On top of that, EK operates 50 77Ws and has another 120 on order. Its an astonishing number of big, big aircraft and certainly worth pondering.

Quoting Steelyman (Reply 6):
It is really interesting that in DXB you can see enormous rows of aircrafts seating in the tarmac for many hours and they still order 380 while they don't put up on the air their actual planes...

This is an interesting comment. What is the utilization rate of EK's aircraft? Could it do more with fewer planes?


User currently offlineViscount724 From Switzerland, joined Oct 2006, 24658 posts, RR: 22
Reply 13, posted (1 year 6 months 5 days 22 hours ago) and read 14302 times:

Quoting United885 (Reply 7):
120 A380.
That´s an unbelievable number!

It's not that big when you look at the number of 747s (over 50 in a few cases) operated by several carriers long ago when the global air traffic market was much smaller and deregulation was almost non-existent.

Or look at QF which once had around 30 744s in service, and Australia isn't a huge market and, unlike DXB, isn't a connecting hub well-located for most of the world's population.


User currently offlineOzGlobal From France, joined Nov 2004, 2711 posts, RR: 4
Reply 14, posted (1 year 6 months 5 days 22 hours ago) and read 14306 times:

Quoting JAAlbert (Reply 12):
Okay, I'll say it - ordering 50 77Ws at a pop sounds ridiculous!

Having on hand 120 380s also sounds outrageous. Of course, Mr. Clark knows far better than us a.netters how many aircraft he needs and if he needs 50 new 77Ws and 120 380s, of course he should have them straight away. And yes, it seems he's making mountains of money flying these things around. I think what we are all breathless about is the shear size of these orders. No other carrier orders widebodies in such numbers - and certainly not in a single order or so. A thread a few years ago listed the largest 747s operators of the time. JAL had 70 or so 747s, BA had north of 50. Those are big airplanes and big fleets. EK comes along and intends on almost doubling the size of the largest 747 fleet with the even larger 380. On top of that, EK operates 50 77Ws and has another 120 on order. Its an astonishing number of big, big aircraft and certainly worth pondering.

Don't forget, the UAE have a limited time window to re-invent them-selves as an economy. They have the sense to recongnize that their relatively modest oil reserves will run out soon enough and the music will stop. They have as a sort of city state, the task of inventing an alternative economy to replace the oil. I think they look to Singapore: a city state with nothing but a strategic location as a port (sea and air). UAE want to be the new Singapore. Emirates is one of their main levers. Now may be seen as the time to put it all on that horse and hope it comes home, as Singapore Airlines has helped Singapore to be what it is today....



When all's said and done, there'll be more said than done.
User currently offlinejustinlee From China, joined Aug 2012, 331 posts, RR: 0
Reply 15, posted (1 year 6 months 5 days 22 hours ago) and read 13731 times:

Quoting OzGlobal (Reply 9):
This is partly about developing demand, not just servicing it. 707's were big when no one but the wealthy could afford to fly, but they and 747's introduced 'tourist' class and the capacity tapped new demand. A huge new middle class is developing in China, India and other high growth markets. More and more people are travelling long haul more readily and more often in the world. Out of 8 Billion inhabitants, how many fly today on this planet today?

That's the whole point of EK. They are not serving passengers, they are creating passengers. With one stop service linking every major cities in Europe, Asia and Africa, it provides cheaper and more convenient connections for the rising middle class and business.


User currently offlineHoMsaR From United States of America, joined Jan 2010, 1148 posts, RR: 0
Reply 16, posted (1 year 6 months 5 days 22 hours ago) and read 13660 times:

Quoting Stitch (Reply 5):
A good number (if not majority) of EK's frames are on 12-year leases, so they will certainly be placing replacement orders.

So then the question is, what happens when several dozen A380s suddenly flood the second-hand market?

12 years isn't exactly old, especially on a plane that spends most of its life doing long-haul flights.



I was raised by a cup of coffee.
User currently onlinescbriml From United Kingdom, joined Jul 2003, 12284 posts, RR: 47
Reply 17, posted (1 year 6 months 5 days 22 hours ago) and read 13660 times:
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Quoting Steelyman (Reply 6):
It is really interesting that in DXB you can see enormous rows of aircrafts seating in the tarmac for many hours and they still order 380 while they don't put up on the air their actual planes...

If you look at DXB in the middle of one of EK's arrival banks, there will be a lot of planes on the ground. Look at Dubai at other times and it's almost devoid of Emirates planes. I would suggest EK's utilisation of its planes is better than many other airlines.

Quoting JAAlbert (Reply 12):
Okay, I'll say it - ordering 50 77Ws at a pop sounds ridiculous!

Having on hand 120 380s also sounds outrageous.

But what, in Emirates history of amazing traffic and profit growth, makes anyone think they don't know exactly what they're doing?   



Time flies like an arrow, but fruit flies like a banana!
User currently offlinedergay From Ireland, joined Dec 2006, 44 posts, RR: 0
Reply 18, posted (1 year 6 months 5 days 22 hours ago) and read 13568 times:

Quoting OzGlobal (Reply 9):
Your text exactly is what many US members wrote in the relation to the very idea of the A380 project. Now that it is delivered and EK is building its growth largely and successfully on the aircraft, we hear the same again, "can't imagine the necessity". Clearly the US aviation market dynamics are not those of other parts or even most parts of the world. Further, when I see the number of A380s now at JFK and LAX, I wonder if US carriers didn't just get that wrong too.

Totally agree - remember Concorde, America initially banned it! They then restricted it in such a way as to harm it's economical operation. When will they ever learn............



Flown on A300,A310,A318,A319,A320,A321,A330,B707,B720,B727,B737,B747,B757,B767,L382,L1011,C5,DC-3,DC8,
User currently offlineKaiTak747 From Switzerland, joined Aug 2012, 157 posts, RR: 0
Reply 19, posted (1 year 6 months 5 days 21 hours ago) and read 12889 times:

Quoting OzGlobal (Reply 9):
Out of 8 Billion inhabitants, how many fly today on this planet today?


I read on the Swiss inflight magazine that only 5% of the world's population have been on a plane... not sure if accurate but a surprising figure nonetheless.

EK really are banking on a huge, sustained increase in travel demand from East to West to fill all those A380s, 777s and A350s. They are well positioned to connect emerging economies in Asia, Africa and elsewhere to the rest of the world and with their new airport I'm sure they will prosper.


User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 30434 posts, RR: 84
Reply 20, posted (1 year 6 months 5 days 21 hours ago) and read 12782 times:
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Quoting dergay (Reply 19):
When will they ever learn...

You could ask the same of India....

They banned supersonic overflight by Concorde services planned for SE Asia and Australia and they currently ban the A380...


User currently offlinescouseflyer From United Kingdom, joined Apr 2006, 3371 posts, RR: 9
Reply 21, posted (1 year 6 months 5 days 21 hours ago) and read 12738 times:

Quoting HoMsaR (Reply 17):
So then the question is, what happens when several dozen A380s suddenly flood the second-hand market?

That isn't the much of an issue for EK as they've sold and leased back many of their planes so it's the lessors tkaing the punt on future values and even 50 A380s hitting the used market is small compared to the numbers of narrow bodies that will soon be "churned" every year - both A and B are looking between 400 and 500 deliveries a year add to that the C series and any chinese offering and that's possibly 1000 new NBs a year being delivered and pushing a similar number of older frames onto the second hand market.


User currently offlineKC135Hydraulics From United States of America, joined Nov 2012, 289 posts, RR: 0
Reply 22, posted (1 year 6 months 5 days 21 hours ago) and read 12627 times:

Quoting Stitch (Reply 20):
They banned supersonic overflight by Concorde services planned for SE Asia and Australia and they currently ban the A380...

Aside from obviously smaller airports that cannot handle an aircraft the size of an A380, where is this aircraft "banned" in the United States? Maybe this is sarcasm and I'm missing it, because I'm slow on the up-take, but I've not heard of any banning of this aircraft at US airports equipped with the infrastructure to accomodate it


User currently offlinerjm777ual From UK - England, joined Nov 2011, 246 posts, RR: 0
Reply 23, posted (1 year 6 months 5 days 20 hours ago) and read 12294 times:

The A380 is clearly not banned anywhere, as it is flown to almost every major US airport. He may mean that some airports might not have the runway space/terminal space to accommodate it, but that isn't "banning."


Greetings from Dulles!
User currently offlineflood From United States of America, joined Feb 2009, 1381 posts, RR: 1
Reply 24, posted (1 year 6 months 5 days 20 hours ago) and read 12114 times:

Quoting KC135Hydraulics (Reply 22):
Aside from obviously smaller airports that cannot handle an aircraft the size of an A380, where is this aircraft "banned" in the United States?

His comment was in reference to India, not the US. India hasn't permitted LH and EK to operate anything larger than the 748 into the country.

Not sure what the current status is, but here's an older thread on the issue:
Indian Govt: Indefinite Ban On A380 To India (by bastew Oct 4 2011 in Civil Aviation)


25 Asiaflyer : Not really big news about another 30 A380 for EK as Tim Clark was mentioning this already last year. What impresses me with EK is their massive growth
26 Tardis : This sounds like Pan Am in the early 1970's Too many wide bodies.....
27 skipness1E : Pan Am in the early 70s was flying half empty B741s all over the place, for almost zero profit. Spot the key difference with EK.....
28 HoMsaR : It may not be an issue for EK, per se, but it will be an issue for the lessors and the market as a whole. It's different from the narrowbody issue be
29 Post contains images ASA : We all get our own A380s to drive around ... Well, atleast, EK keeps the A380 program floating and in the black. EU should be proud!
30 BlueSky1976 : Pan Am = no little to none domestic feed network with huge number of intercontinental routes. Emirates = strategically placed hub at the historic tra
31 aerorobnz : I feel that the 30 will only come when the 389 is confirmed, I also think that many of the existing undelivered 388 orders will be trensfered to 389s.
32 OzGlobal : Don't forget, the UAE have a limited time window to re-invent them-selves as an economy. They have the sense to recongnize that their relatively mode
33 Post contains images scbriml : That's not what Tim Clark has said. Frankly, Airbus would be pretty dumb to launch the -900 before they've delivered all (or the vast majority) of EK
34 gauravpai : do you have an actual source on a comment like that? i have it that the average turnaround per aircraft currently at DXB is only 4 hrs or so...please
35 abba : I am not so surprised by the many 380 - relative to the model EK is working after. I am more curios as to why they want all these 777ERs and 350s - i
36 cmf : Boeing claimed break even was as little as 100 passengers. Why?
37 na : I would rather see the rumoured "significant" A380 order coming from a new airline, but Emirates has surprised us more than often. They upgrade many r
38 scbriml : To avoid EK simply switching undelivered -800s to -900s. That would generate some incremental revenue for Airbus, but nowhere near the revenue that t
39 Post contains images EPA001 : I would love to see it too. But I guess a launch of the A389 in 2015 and an EIS in 2020 seems realistic. The A350 development should be finalized in
40 cmf : I know this is a difficult concept but revenue as standalone measurement is useless. Switching models will mean some lost profit. But if this is a sh
41 a380900 : Indeed. Can companies start operations with the A380 with second hand planes? I guess that's what carrier like Corsair did with the 747. That will re
42 babybus : Umm...if only all airlines could do that. As Airbus say in their marketing blurb ' it takes an A380 to compete with an A380'. Flying with Emirates ha
43 Post contains images lightsaber : Concord violated noise requirements. It was given an exemption for a small number of airports. How can one require new planes to be quieter than a th
44 Stitch : Airbus doesn't need to launch the A380-900 because there is no competition to the A380-800. It's the only viable VLA in service now and it will remai
45 JAAlbert : Absolutely nothing - as I stated in my post. EK obviously created a profitable business plan - but that doesn't take away from the amazement and wond
46 OzGlobal : Really? I'm surprised to hear that from an aviation enthusiast. I'm sure if the US had built it, it would not have been the case. Do a search on some
47 ATL : 7 Billion. And no. US Aviation market dynamics are obviously not those of other parts of the world. But this isn't news. This is the result of a matu
48 Post contains images Stitch : The US Congress ended the US SST program in 1971 when they ended funding to Boeing to continue the 2707-300. And one of the main factors that resulte
49 UALWN : Try less than half a billion. Only about 5% of today's world population has ever been on a commercial flight.
50 ekgold : EK Drivers may correct me here, but EK uses the capability by filling the bellies with freight. A good friend who drives EK T7's describes the T7 as
51 OzGlobal : My post mentioned "US carriers" not US aircraft manufacturers: DL, UA, AA,, If KL, AF, QF, EK, LH and others can profitably fly A380 to US destinatio
52 ATL : I was referring to the actual world population... The world population is 7 Billion people, not 8 billion. 7, not 8. Minute detail though.
53 ATL : As both you and I stated, it is a completely different dynamic. The US aviation industry is all about a lot of smaller aircraft, rather than a few bi
54 na : I would think more. 5% would be roughly 350 million people, about the population of the US. Surely more have flown on a plane at least once.
55 HoMsaR : Doesn't surprise me that it's only 5%. Airlines have a lot of repeat business driving their traffic, and the most populous parts of the world still h
56 abba : That at least makes sense
57 greenwichsud : Taking that back a step, population, wealth and commerce in the US is much more widely spread around the US than what is typical for an Asian or Euro
58 Viscount724 : The big difference then is that fares were heavily regulated by governments and there was no flexibility to reduce fares to fill empty seats. In most
59 cmf : I think it is more complicated than that. First, I don't think it is reasonable to think that every customer interested in a -900 will take an -800 i
60 N14AZ : I belong to the group of a-netters who don't believe (i.e. don't hope) that EK is not behind this so called "significant MoU" (if it ever materializes
61 Stitch : True, they could take two 777-300ERs | A350-1000s - same passenger capacity as one A380-900 and significantly more cargo capacity.[Edited 2013-01-09
62 GDB : A little unfair, as someone who had the pleasure of being involved with this aircraft, I can say that the Port Of New York banned it, until BA and AF
63 thegeek : The A389 would justify a higher sale price, perhaps even per seat due to its superior CASM. Could cost them less to build the 4 A389s and make them m
64 DolphinAir747 : EK seems to be treading on the fine line between capitalizing on the rise of the middle classes in developing nations, greater tourism etc. and leadin
65 cmf : And a lot more in capital cost. Without access to Airbus numbers there is no way for us to know but I'm having problems seeing the margin on an -900
66 thegeek : On the other hand, I think you'd have problems making the business case for the -900 work if the profit per seat for Airbus wasn't close to the -800.
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