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AA/AS Merger Vs. AA/B6 Merger  
User currently offlinemartinrpo1 From United States of America, joined Dec 2012, 63 posts, RR: 0
Posted (1 year 6 months 2 weeks 3 days 8 hours ago) and read 9604 times:

Let us suppose AA rejects the merger with US Airways and emerges from CH11 in pretty good shape. What would be a better merger in future: Alaska-American or JetBlue-American?

69 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineLAXdude1023 From India, joined Sep 2006, 7506 posts, RR: 24
Reply 1, posted (1 year 6 months 2 weeks 3 days 7 hours ago) and read 9574 times:

I think both AS and B6 would fight with every ounce of their being to not merge with AA.


Stewed...Lewd...Crude...Irreverent...Belligerent
User currently offlinechepos From Puerto Rico, joined Dec 2000, 6207 posts, RR: 11
Reply 2, posted (1 year 6 months 2 weeks 3 days 7 hours ago) and read 9533 times:

Well I would venture to say AS will not be merging with anyone, God knows why this is brought up so often.


Fly the Flag!!!!
User currently offlinejfk777 From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 8287 posts, RR: 7
Reply 3, posted (1 year 6 months 2 weeks 3 days 7 hours ago) and read 9490 times:
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Quoting chepos (Reply 2):
Well I would venture to say AS will not be merging with anyone, God knows why this is brought up so often.

Alaska would only be good for an airline wanting feed in Seattle for west coast and SEA feed, DL would be better then AA. AS loves being independent.

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 1):
I think both AS and B6 would fight with every ounce of their being to not merge with AA.

The Jetblue / AA marriage seems to get speculated about often, they do two very different things. AA doesn't want to fly people from NYC to Florida, Puerto Rico or the Dominican Republic any more. They want an international operation with Transcon flights at JFK. AA probably is better with Usairways and its Charlottle hub, the future does seem to have AA 777 from CLT to GRU, LHR and NRT.


User currently offlinexjramper From United States of America, joined Dec 2003, 2460 posts, RR: 51
Reply 4, posted (1 year 6 months 2 weeks 3 days 7 hours ago) and read 9379 times:

How about no merger? People have this mindset that there has to be a merger. Of the airlines that are left as stand alone, there really isn't a good proposal left. USAir really has nothing to offer on the international front that AA doesn't already occupy or had and dropped. B6 has a great chunk of flying out of a leisure-heavy market, which will provide absolutely nothing in terms of yield. And AS isn't going to merge with anyone anytime soon.

Quite honestly, I see AA emerging as stand alone and staying that way.



Look ma' no hands!
User currently offlineBoeingGuy From United States of America, joined Dec 2010, 2996 posts, RR: 7
Reply 5, posted (1 year 6 months 2 weeks 3 days 7 hours ago) and read 9352 times:

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 3):
Alaska would only be good for an airline wanting feed in Seattle for west coast and SEA feed, DL would be better then AA. AS loves being independent.

Oh not this s**t again.  

AS would be good for an airline wanting feed in SEA, but the rest of the route system would probably not be useful to DL. Does DL really want to serve Adak, Prudhoe Bay and stuff like SJC-LIH or BLI-OGG? At best, DL would parse off most of AS's route structure.

Just what AS Mileage Plan members need too - being part of an airline that is the biggest joke for lack of availability of frequent flier awards (DL, a.k.a. the bait-and-switch frequent flier program).

AS loves being independent because they feel it's the best choice for their shareholders, employees and customers. I still don't see why some people think it written in stone that it's inevitable or mandatory that AS must merge with someone. Did someone pass a law stating that, and I missed it?


User currently offlinestlgph From United States of America, joined Oct 2004, 9303 posts, RR: 25
Reply 6, posted (1 year 6 months 2 weeks 3 days 7 hours ago) and read 9306 times:

jetblue -
current senior management: no American
largest shareholder? Lufthansa. view? no American


Alaska -
current senior management: no American
largest shareholders? Blackrock, Par Capital Management, Vanguard Group. view? no American.



Eternal darkness we all should dread. It's hard to party when you're dead.
User currently offlineetops1 From United States of America, joined Nov 2005, 1069 posts, RR: 1
Reply 7, posted (1 year 6 months 2 weeks 3 days 7 hours ago) and read 9306 times:

Quoting xjramper (Reply 4):

Yeah well , what you see and what reality is are two very different things . AA will combine with US . It really doesn't matter who likes it or not .


User currently offlineAA94 From United States of America, joined Aug 2011, 577 posts, RR: 2
Reply 8, posted (1 year 6 months 2 weeks 3 days 7 hours ago) and read 9274 times:

Quoting xjramper (Reply 4):
How about no merger? People have this mindset that there has to be a merger. Of the airlines that are left as stand alone, there really isn't a good proposal left. USAir really has nothing to offer on the international front that AA doesn't already occupy or had and dropped. B6 has a great chunk of flying out of a leisure-heavy market, which will provide absolutely nothing in terms of yield. And AS isn't going to merge with anyone anytime soon.

Quite honestly, I see AA emerging as stand alone and staying that way.

        

AA doesn't need to merge with anyone, and if they're going to any merging at all, it's going to be with US. I think that neither AA and B6/AS really want to merge with each other, so they won't.



Choose a challenge over competence / Eleanor Roosevelt
User currently offlineenilria From Canada, joined Feb 2008, 7040 posts, RR: 13
Reply 9, posted (1 year 6 months 2 weeks 3 days 7 hours ago) and read 9271 times:

Quoting martinrpo1 (Thread starter):
Let us suppose AA rejects the merger with US Airways and emerges from CH11 in pretty good shape. What would be a better merger in future: Alaska-American or JetBlue-American?
Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 1):

I think both AS and B6 would fight with every ounce of their being to not merge with AA.

I think neither want to merge, but at the right price it isn't their decision.

I think B6 is much more likely because DL would attempt to outbid AA for AS, but really can't do anything to stop B6-AA. I'm not sure whether DL is actually better off with AA and B6 merging. It would eliminate price pressure.

Quoting chepos (Reply 2):
Well I would venture to say AS will not be merging with anyone, God knows why this is brought up so often.

Because everybody is merging. There are fewer and fewer airlines.

Quoting xjramper (Reply 4):

How about no merger? People have this mindset that there has to be a merger.

I don't want a merger. The FL-WN merger was the worst one yet in terms of fare impact. The reality is, though, the more everybody merges the more money they all make. Less competition, more profit.

Quoting xjramper (Reply 4):
Quite honestly, I see AA emerging as stand alone and staying that way.

Very unlikely. It will either be a merger or a virtual merger. AA has to have more critical mass. DL and UA are too far ahead of them and are pounding on them in LAX and NYC. AA is moving backwards and did not get costs down to levels that will allow them much of an advantage if any in their labor deals. I think we will see a deal of some sort. It may be as little as US joining OW or B6 being a very tightly integrated partner.

B6 doesn't want a deal, but it wants slots and gates in NYC/DCA. This is the price for that.


User currently offlinexjramper From United States of America, joined Dec 2003, 2460 posts, RR: 51
Reply 10, posted (1 year 6 months 2 weeks 3 days 7 hours ago) and read 9225 times:

Quoting etops1 (Reply 7):
Yeah well , what you see and what reality is are two very different things . AA will combine with US . It really doesn't matter who likes it or not .

Did I miss something? Please link it here so we can see that it is official.

Otherwise, unless you are Tommy Horton or Dougie Parker and/or a member of the internal board, what you are writing here is only what you "see" as well.



Look ma' no hands!
User currently offlineetops1 From United States of America, joined Nov 2005, 1069 posts, RR: 1
Reply 11, posted (1 year 6 months 2 weeks 3 days 7 hours ago) and read 9157 times:

Quoting xjramper (Reply 10):

I am writing what I know .. You can bet on that  


User currently offlineripcordd From United States of America, joined Apr 2000, 1149 posts, RR: 1
Reply 12, posted (1 year 6 months 2 weeks 3 days 7 hours ago) and read 9124 times:

enilria, I think AA leads LAX or they are a very close#2 and with lower labour costs than DL & UA and new code sharing allowed and 90 seater coming I don't see their position changing too much in LA.

User currently offlinedabpit From United States of America, joined May 2012, 103 posts, RR: 0
Reply 13, posted (1 year 6 months 2 weeks 3 days 6 hours ago) and read 8990 times:

Just throwing this out there (it would never happen in my opinion) but what about AA/VX?

User currently offlineRoseflyer From United States of America, joined Feb 2004, 9509 posts, RR: 52
Reply 14, posted (1 year 6 months 2 weeks 3 days 6 hours ago) and read 8882 times:

The only way AS would merge would be through a hostile takeover. ALK stock is valued at over 3 Billion. The company is worth more than US Airways (LCC). Jetblue is worth about half that of Alaska.


If you have never designed an airplane part before, let the real designers do the work!
User currently offlineDeltaMD90 From United States of America, joined Apr 2008, 7832 posts, RR: 52
Reply 15, posted (1 year 6 months 2 weeks 3 days 6 hours ago) and read 8831 times:

Aw no not this thread again! Sigh...

Anyway, I don't think AS is going anywhere... if AA tries to merge DL will do everything they can to block them, and if DL tries to merge, AA will do the same.

As for B6, I'm not sure how much competition concerns would be raised, but I would imagine that B6 is strong enough to put up a good fight, especially in AA's current, lowly existance



Ironically I have never flown a Delta MD-90 :)
User currently offlinebobloblaw From United States of America, joined Jan 2012, 1631 posts, RR: 1
Reply 16, posted (1 year 6 months 2 weeks 3 days 6 hours ago) and read 8810 times:
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AA cant operate B6 routes at B6 fares and make money. Raising fares would shrink the markets and result in overcapacity.

I see youre a kid, so Ill go easy on you.


User currently offlinestlgph From United States of America, joined Oct 2004, 9303 posts, RR: 25
Reply 17, posted (1 year 6 months 2 weeks 3 days 6 hours ago) and read 8757 times:

Quoting dabpit (Reply 13):
AA/VX?

VX and anybody? No.
VX is worth some planes sitting around if the carrier's to go out of business.

VX already flies among heavily competitive routes and offers a "sexy" in flight service that the loyal fliers will expect and want if someone was to "merge" with them, which they won't get.



Eternal darkness we all should dread. It's hard to party when you're dead.
User currently offlineluv2fly From United States of America, joined May 2003, 12090 posts, RR: 49
Reply 18, posted (1 year 6 months 2 weeks 3 days 5 hours ago) and read 8742 times:

Why do people think that AS and B6 need to merge to remain viable! And VX why would anyone want a few planes that operate on heavily traveled routes.


You can cut the irony with a knife
User currently offlineBoeingGuy From United States of America, joined Dec 2010, 2996 posts, RR: 7
Reply 19, posted (1 year 6 months 2 weeks 3 days 5 hours ago) and read 8730 times:

Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 15):
Anyway, I don't think AS is going anywhere... if AA tries to merge DL will do everything they can to block them, and if DL tries to merge, AA will do the same.

Yep. I think AS has very skillfully positioned themselves to remain independent with some very strategic moves.

Not only are they in bed with several members from both One World and Sky Team, who would fight to avoid the other from locking them up as you state, but they'd also lose the code share revenue from the other alliance partnerships. If DL bought them, DL would lose the substantial code share revenue that AS gets from AA and also QF and LA. If AA buys them, they lose AS's code share revenue from DL, KE, AF and KL. And they might lose FI and EK partnerships also.

AS bought by AA or DL loses value immediately for reasons stated above. Plus, how much does AA or DL really want to serve all those state of Alaska cities?


User currently onlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 30617 posts, RR: 84
Reply 20, posted (1 year 6 months 2 weeks 3 days 5 hours ago) and read 8731 times:
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AS offers little to AA other than making SEA a new hub, and I don't see AA interested in having a hub in SEA. Didn't they pretty much shut down Air California and Reno Air when they took them and their SJC hub over?

User currently offlineRoseflyer From United States of America, joined Feb 2004, 9509 posts, RR: 52
Reply 21, posted (1 year 6 months 2 weeks 3 days 5 hours ago) and read 8672 times:

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 16):
AA cant operate B6 routes at B6 fares and make money. Raising fares would shrink the markets and result in overcapacity.

According to figure 11 on this presentation, AA's 738s have almost the exact same CASM as B6's A320s.

http://planestats.com/Files/20110203...Economic_Analysis_APC_included.pdf

Here's an excerpt:

American’s success in bringing down the cost of operating the 737-800 is the result of three important changes in its 737-800 fleet. First, over the last two years American increased the 737-800 fleet by 91%, from 77 to 147 aircraft, and as the fleet has grown rapidly, its Direct CASM has decreased. A higher proportion of lower seniority pilots are likely flying the aircraft; the newest aircraft have no maintenance cost yet; and over 50% of the fleet have the newest, most fuel efficient engines. Second, American is retrofitting the 737-800 fleet and adding an average of 12 seats per aircraft. Finally, American changed the mission of the 737-800 fleet, deploying the aircraft in longer haul markets, which increased the stage length 11%. The combined power of these levers is well known and traditionally used by value carriers in their growth phase, but rare among network carriers.



If you have never designed an airplane part before, let the real designers do the work!
User currently offlineB6JFKH81 From United States of America, joined Mar 2006, 2878 posts, RR: 7
Reply 22, posted (1 year 6 months 2 weeks 3 days 4 hours ago) and read 8433 times:



Upper leadership has made it quite clear that we're not interested in getting into bed with AA or any other carrier:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yOM6csohc5c

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-0...-more-airport-access-correct-.html



"If you do not learn from history, you are doomed to repeat it"
User currently offlineenilria From Canada, joined Feb 2008, 7040 posts, RR: 13
Reply 23, posted (1 year 6 months 2 weeks 3 days 4 hours ago) and read 8379 times:

Quoting ripcordd (Reply 12):
nilria, I think AA leads LAX or they are a very close#2 and with lower labour costs than DL & UA and new code sharing allowed and 90 seater coming I don't see their position changing too much in LA.

I get that, but DL is growing. They just added LAX-SEA. DL has a target on AA there.

Quoting dabpit (Reply 13):

Just throwing this out there (it would never happen in my opinion) but what about AA/VX?

It could happen as a VX liquidation strategy. Don't think it means much in the scheme of things.

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 16):
AA cant operate B6 routes at B6 fares and make money. Raising fares would shrink the markets and result in overcapacity.

All true, but owning the slots at JFK is valuable to rebuild a hub there.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 20):
AS offers little to AA other than making SEA a new hub,

For one thing it completely orphans DL's SEA transpac aspirations and generally denies DL a lot of market strength in the West.

Bottom line: I think AS stays neutral until there is a management change or Wall Street pressure, but I think AA and B6 start code sharing and do a LGA slot deal.


User currently onlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 30617 posts, RR: 84
Reply 24, posted (1 year 6 months 2 weeks 3 days 4 hours ago) and read 8230 times:
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Quoting enilria (Reply 23):
For one thing it completely orphans DL's SEA transpac aspirations and generally denies DL a lot of market strength in the West.

Even without AS, DL could still keep SEA as an international gateway, like UA does. And UA has significantly scaled back their feeder ops into SEA over the years.


25 Post contains images NWAROOSTER : I CAN'T think of of one GOOD reason Alaska Airlines would merge with American Airlines or US Airways. It would be just plain STUPID. Pun intended.
26 JoePatroni707 : How about we just hire some of their flight attendants, they have some hotties!
27 ckfred : So, you're privy to the conversations between senior AMR management and the major creditors of AMR/AA? If AA merges with US, it's because the credito
28 brilondon : What would AA gain by merging with VX? Are you sure you don't mean VS?
29 chepos : We should review history a bit, let's see AA purchases B6 and we see them do what has always happened in the past when they purchase someone. They use
30 BD338 : For the sake of innovative service, care about the customer (and not just the FF or J/F person) attitude and friendly helpful service I hope neither A
31 flyby519 : VX could be quite a jewel if SFO turns into a slot controlled airport: CrankyFlier just posted an article about the problems with SFO and possibility
32 BoeingGuy : Agreed, but why would Wall Street pressure AS to combine with someone? As the old saying goes, "It ain't broke." What would a merger and the subseque
33 flyby519 : By that logic then US should just keep trucking along without any pressure from wall street. They have had great financial success over the past few
34 BoeingGuy : I have never seen anywhere in the media that Wall Street or anyone else thinks that AS needs to be taken over. Am I missing anything? Who would benef
35 Post contains links Roseflyer : Of the major airlines, Alaska has the highest profit margin by far. Their profit margin is almost double their nearest competitor. They are very high
36 dabpit : I do mean VX
37 Post contains images dabpit : Do you happen to still have the link for that? Agreed
38 brilondon : Understood.
39 Post contains links flyby519 : Sure http://crankyflier.com/2013/01/14/sf...CrankyFlier+%28The+Cranky+Flier%29
40 lucky777 : Your a junior flight attendant at US Airways...you have as much access to inside information as does the green vest dumping the lavs on the midnight
41 BarryH : Once again, purely financial deals are being emotionalized. Every public company is for sale - for a price. AS management is put there by the Board w
42 ckfred : Why do people think that AA buys an airline to run it out of business? Why did AA get rid of the SJC hub the first time, after buying Air Cal? Becaus
43 etops1 : Whatever Lucky , I know a lot more than you think . But I don't have to come on here and prove it to you . Guess we shall see if I was right or wrong
44 brons2 : This, and I think they should explore a wide ranging partnership before undertaking a full-on merger. Sort of like CO and UA did before their merger.
45 hereandthere41 : UA/UAX is significantly larger than #2 AA/Eagle at LAX......approximately 210 daily departures vs. 123. AA is barely larger than WN at LAX.
46 LAXdude1023 : You might think you do, but if youre an FA, you dont know anything the rest of us dont.
47 stlgph : But by default, they're still the largest shareholders. incorrect. A legalized "consideration of sale" is far different than a "we want to sell."
48 jfklganyc : If AA wanted a JFK hub they would have had one. They were larger 10 years ago at JFK than they are now They build a billion dollar terminal, only to s
49 BarryH : Horton didn't "feel" a merger in bankruptcy was in AA's best interest. How did that work out? NDA's were signed and it's being thoroughly vetted. Aye
50 yeelep : If your'e going to drop names, at least get them right. Write on the blackboard 100 times,Tilden.
51 XT6Wagon : AS survives on its Focus. Merging with AA would remove the focus and basicly gut the value of AS. The other majors (and WN) would quickly tear the gut
52 Post contains images EA CO AS : While you're absolutely correct that the BOD has a fiduciary responsibility to the shareholders to review any offer, they're not obligated to accept
53 PassedV1 : Wow, "this one again"...no kidding. I don't believe that an AA/AS merger/acquisition is out of the question. Although Alaska's market cap of 3.0 Billi
54 BD338 : so you propose shutting down an entire airline just so you can get 124 various sized and aged 737s to replace 210 MD-80s?
55 bobloblaw : AS has many very loyal flyers who would not necessarily extend their loyalty. I also think that politicians from Alaska might try to scuttle any buyou
56 Roseflyer : Very true that for the right price the company is for sale. However with a market cap over $3 Billion, no one has that type of money to buy AS. They
57 EA CO AS : I do. But the main reason here never seems to get emphasized enough; AS provides critical, profitable feed to both AA and DL. If either carrier tried
58 dabpit : Thank you
59 BoeingGuy : Yep, as I've stated before, AS has brilliantly positioned themselves to stay independent by moves like that. Also, I suspect that AA or DL would find
60 PassedV1 : Sort of an airline style, Mutually Assured Destruction. I hope it works with airlines as well it has worked with Nuclear Missles. So an airline buyin
61 enilria : IMHO it would doom DL's efforts there. UA is a much stronger brand in the Asian point of sale than DL. I think DL desperately needs the feed in SEA.
62 BoeingGuy : Why? Anyone with any foresight knows that most of AS's network would be gutted in just a few years. Neither DL or AA (or US for that matter) has ever
63 Post contains links BarryH : Funny. All it takes is 51% of the shareholders to oust a Board and subsequently management by the reconstituted Board if they feel their best interes
64 LAXdude1023 : Youre starting to sound like Doug Parker. If you want to know what its like to see a whole airline workforce rise against a potential takeover, look
65 brilondon : Great comparison. I had to go, well not had but decided to re-read the article on KCS, and definitely saw the comparison with the AS situation.
66 PRAirbus : AA/B6 merger would work; AA gets bigger in NY and recuperates the Caribbean/SJU. Wasn't there a codeshare agreement being worked on between AA/B6????
67 chepos : [quote=PRAirbus,reply=66]AA gets bigger in NY and recuperates the Caribbean/SJU[/quote SJU would be dropped faster than STL, a SJU focus city no longe
68 PRAirbus : Well, CHEPOS might be right about SJU especially when PRico's tourism is in deep crisis but people need to fly to/from SJU otherwise SWA would've drop
69 chepos : SJU is now low cost territory, if B6 disappears I would expect WN/FL to cover the loss (or even NK). Yields to SJU are not good, very little premium t
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