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What Will AA/US Fleet Be After They Merge?  
User currently offlinecosyr From United States of America, joined Jul 2012, 386 posts, RR: 0
Posted (1 year 6 months 3 weeks 5 days 16 hours ago) and read 11462 times:

After a year or two of "right sizing" and cross fleeting, I would see these planes gone:
All Classic 737's from US, 762's from US and AA, with the A321's replacing transcons, and a substantial reduction in 757's. Do you think the merger will have any effect speeding up the MD-80 retirements?

Also, with both US and AA having A320's on order, and the combined airline having a fleet to start with of almost 1000, do you think they might cancel the 737max orders? Would they take both the 787 and A350?

22 replies: All unread, jump to last
 
User currently offlineaztrainer From United States of America, joined Oct 2011, 576 posts, RR: 1
Reply 1, posted (1 year 6 months 3 weeks 5 days 16 hours ago) and read 11439 times:

Quoting cosyr (Thread starter):
Also, with both US and AA having A320's on order, and the combined airline having a fleet to start with of almost 1000, do you think they might cancel the 737max orders?

I thought that they split the order between the A320 and 737MAX because neither A or B could get all the planes in a timely manner. The interesting thing would be IF they merge the US management would be in charge and since they moved to Airbus, would they change the order and take the delays?

This is also under the prediction that US/AA do merge. Both airlines need to get rid of the high CPSM aircraft IMHO.

I would wonder if US would move a 767 or two to PHX from the PHX-HNL and PHX-OGG route? I have been on a US 757 that has weight restrictions due to the blazing heat here in the summer.


User currently offlineDualQual From United States of America, joined Mar 2006, 763 posts, RR: 1
Reply 2, posted (1 year 6 months 3 weeks 5 days 16 hours ago) and read 11394 times:

Seems the horse is staring at the back of the cart.

User currently offlinecrAAzy From United States of America, joined Jan 2008, 783 posts, RR: 0
Reply 3, posted (1 year 6 months 3 weeks 5 days 16 hours ago) and read 11335 times:
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Quoting aztrainer (Reply 1):

I would wonder if US would move a 767 or two to PHX from the PHX-HNL and PHX-OGG route? I have been on a US 757 that has weight restrictions due to the blazing heat here in the summer.

Maybe they can replace US's 757s with AA's for missions like these. OTOH ... it seems to me the above would be one of several reasons to replace PHX-Hawaii with LAX and DFW.


User currently onlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 30858 posts, RR: 86
Reply 4, posted (1 year 6 months 3 weeks 5 days 16 hours ago) and read 11316 times:
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Quoting cosyr (Thread starter):
Also, with both US and AA having A320's on order, and the combined airline having a fleet to start with of almost 1000, do you think they might cancel the 737max orders? Would they take both the 787 and A350?

I do not believe that US has any A320neo orders of their own, so they'd need to place an additional order with Airbus to cover the 737NG and 737MAX order and wait perhaps years for delivery.

AA also has permission to firm their 737MAX and 787 orders, so they'd forfeit any monies paid to date if they cancelled them. Same if they cancelled the balance of AA's 737-800 and 777-300ER orders.

So I would expect that if AA and US merge, they will remain a dual Airbus and Boeing customer just as DL and UA have.


User currently offlineLY777 From France, joined Nov 2005, 2679 posts, RR: 2
Reply 5, posted (1 year 6 months 3 weeks 5 days 16 hours ago) and read 11207 times:

If they merge, what will be the name of the "new" airline: AA or US?


אמא, אני מתגעגע לך
User currently offlineKC135Hydraulics From United States of America, joined Nov 2012, 298 posts, RR: 0
Reply 6, posted (1 year 6 months 3 weeks 5 days 16 hours ago) and read 11173 times:

How certain of we of a merger? Is this still speculation or are we just waiting for the official announcement?

User currently offlineflymia From United States of America, joined Jun 2001, 7140 posts, RR: 9
Reply 7, posted (1 year 6 months 3 weeks 5 days 15 hours ago) and read 11119 times:

Quoting LY777 (Reply 5):

It is fairly certain the airline will be "American Airlines" if it happens.



"It was just four of us on the flight deck, trying to do our job" (Captain Al Haynes)
User currently offlineFWAERJ From United States of America, joined Jun 2006, 3733 posts, RR: 2
Reply 8, posted (1 year 6 months 3 weeks 5 days 15 hours ago) and read 10924 times:

Quoting Stitch (Reply 4):
I do not believe that US has any A320neo orders of their own, so they'd need to place an additional order with Airbus to cover the 737NG and 737MAX order and wait perhaps years for delivery.

US has no NEO orders, just A321OEO, A330, and A350 orders along with some E190 options.

Quoting cosyr (Thread starter):

After a year or two of "right sizing" and cross fleeting, I would see these planes gone:
All Classic 737's from US,

The 737 Classics are almost gone from US, merger or no merger.



Primary Airport: FWA/Alternate Airport: DTW/Not employed by the FWACAA or their partners
User currently onlineLonghornmaniac From United States of America, joined Jun 2005, 3284 posts, RR: 44
Reply 9, posted (1 year 6 months 3 weeks 5 days 15 hours ago) and read 10894 times:

Quoting KC135Hydraulics (Reply 6):
still speculation

  

Cheers,
Cameron


User currently offlinebrilondon From Canada, joined Aug 2005, 4194 posts, RR: 1
Reply 10, posted (1 year 6 months 3 weeks 5 days 10 hours ago) and read 9799 times:

I doubt that there will be a merger considering the events of this week. It would be suicide for AA to be associated with US and there is really no reason for speculation, although fun, really, it is getting old.


Rush for ever; Yankees all the way!!
User currently offlineSEA From United States of America, joined Jul 2011, 235 posts, RR: 0
Reply 11, posted (1 year 6 months 3 weeks 5 days 10 hours ago) and read 9769 times:

Well, if we are just going to be treating speculation as fact, let's say the combined fleet will be all 748i and MRJ100.  

User currently offlineskycub From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 12, posted (1 year 6 months 3 weeks 5 days 10 hours ago) and read 9744 times:

An all Fokker 100 fleet.... some in the Love Field Luxury Configuration.

User currently offlineflymia From United States of America, joined Jun 2001, 7140 posts, RR: 9
Reply 13, posted (1 year 6 months 3 weeks 5 days 10 hours ago) and read 9673 times:

Quoting skycub (Reply 12):
An all Fokker 100 fleet.... some in the Love Field Luxury Configuration.

If they do that they might as well just bring Legend Airlines back to life. 



"It was just four of us on the flight deck, trying to do our job" (Captain Al Haynes)
User currently offlineBD338 From United States of America, joined Jul 2010, 703 posts, RR: 0
Reply 14, posted (1 year 6 months 3 weeks 5 days 10 hours ago) and read 9613 times:

Quoting brilondon (Reply 10):
I doubt that there will be a merger considering the events of this week.

what events? the only thing I've seen is an increase in speculation that a deal will be done

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/...mr-usairways-idUSBRE90O13420130125

As for the fleet, very little change. Networks barely overlap so unless a combined US/AA goes on a route chopping spree they'll need very nearly the same number of aircraft as they have as separate entities today. Maybe accelerate a few US 734 and AA MD83 retirements with more efficient use of newer US aircraft but I can't see much.


User currently offlinecosyr From United States of America, joined Jul 2012, 386 posts, RR: 0
Reply 15, posted (1 year 6 months 3 weeks 5 days 10 hours ago) and read 9484 times:

Quoting BD338 (Reply 14):
As for the fleet, very little change. Networks barely overlap so unless a combined US/AA goes on a route chopping spree they'll need very nearly the same number of aircraft as they have as separate entities today.

I'm sure there would be some chopping, but more important would be flight chopping. If US flies 7 flights a day to a particular city to cover all times that flyers want in competition to AA's 8 flights a day to that same city. The combined carrier could fly 10 flights a day to that same city, cover more times, through more hubs, in more geographic directions, with 33% fewer flights. If they do that at many cities served heavily by both airlines now, that could be a substantial reduction in need for aircraft. These are the kinds of "synergies" that companies always praise with mergers. Some might be just blowing smoke to get a merger through and eliminate a competitor, but AA and US fly to mostly the same markets now. Besides, all airlines can be more profitable if there is less supply in the industry.

I see this as an opportunity to then retire older, less fuel efficient aircraft, without the same imminent need to replace that capacity, that each airline has when stand alone. So if AA needs NEO's and Max's to be able to replace planes fast enough, perhaps they won't need that speed if they adopt 300+ US planes and scale back redundant routes/frequencies. Then maybe they rethink the need to have such a mixed fleet...


User currently offlinenwcoflyer From United States of America, joined Jun 2003, 690 posts, RR: 14
Reply 16, posted (1 year 6 months 3 weeks 5 days 9 hours ago) and read 9029 times:

Quoting brilondon (Reply 10):
I doubt that there will be a merger considering the events of this week. It would be suicide for AA to be associated with US and there is really no reason for speculation, although fun, really, it is getting old.

What events are you talking about??? AA board is discussing merger Mon and Tues of this upcoming week. The fact that US hasn't said anything other than the non-disclosure agreement is still intact and has been extended for months since it was supposed to originally expire on 10/31/12.... would indicate a significant chance that a merger is going to happen. If it was not being taken seriously, AA's creditors/board would have already said so.

Fleet wise... I think AA/US will most definitely run a split fleet. The combined airline would by far have the largest mainline fleet in the world. Efficiencies to running single types after fleets hit a certain time really are not as impressive as many would think. Additionally, with such a vast network. having multiple types allows the airline to right size markets. Assuming the merger happens- 5 years from now I could see:

A-319/320/321 and NEO
B737-800/MAX
B757-200 (for thin TATL, some Hawaii/South America, must smaller fleet than today)
B767-300
A-330-200/300
B-777/200/300
EMB-190



The New American is arriving.
User currently offlineTusAadvantage From United States of America, joined Oct 2006, 160 posts, RR: 0
Reply 17, posted (1 year 6 months 3 weeks 5 days 9 hours ago) and read 8941 times:

Any speculations on whether they will be keeping the hideous new AA livery, using the US livery, or forming a new hybrid livery (a la United/Continental)?

User currently offlinecosyr From United States of America, joined Jul 2012, 386 posts, RR: 0
Reply 18, posted (1 year 6 months 3 weeks 5 days 8 hours ago) and read 8557 times:

Quoting nwcoflyer (Reply 16):

That may have been true if there were airlines of this size back when Fokker, Bae, MD and others were around making similar capacity fleets for different types of missions, but when it comes to the A320 and 737, they are such similar aircraft with such similar performance and capabilities, what is the point of both? Choosing your engine for your particular hub seems more important than what plane will be perfect for what mission between the two. Both planes will float around the network so much that I don't believe any perfect match is possible. Nowadays I think all that matters is the price you pay vs the speed you need deliveries.


User currently offlinefraspotter From United States of America, joined May 2004, 2348 posts, RR: 9
Reply 19, posted (1 year 6 months 3 weeks 5 days 7 hours ago) and read 8464 times:

Quoting TusAadvantage (Reply 17):
Any speculations on whether they will be keeping the hideous new AA livery, using the US livery, or forming a new hybrid livery (a la United/Continental)?

I imagine they would keep the new AA livery since it was just released and have already gone into the process of updating the old signage to the new signage. I actually like the new livery...



"Drunks run stop signs. Stoners wait for them to turn green."
User currently offlinecommavia From United States of America, joined Apr 2005, 11522 posts, RR: 61
Reply 20, posted (1 year 6 months 3 weeks 5 days 1 hour ago) and read 6486 times:

I'll add my uninformed speculation ...

If there is a merger, much of the US fleet is as old or older than much of the AA fleet, so there would be plenty of planes that would need replacing in the not-too-distant future on both sides. Plus, I suspect a not-insignificant portion of the present USAirways network would likely be rendered unprofitable at a merged airline's higher unit costs (labor and otherwise), so that is going to drive some "optimization." And, from the AA side, AA has of course been taking near-continuous delivery of new 737s, and will soon begin taking delivery of new A319s and A321s, with the priority on replacing MD80s and 757s, with the 767-200ERs also soon to leave.

To start with the obvious, I think the network optimization and ensuing fleet rationalization would immediately mean the elimination of what was left of US 737, 757 and 767 fleets, all of which are small (total of 66 jets among all 3 fleets). AA's current 757s are capable of covering US 757 missions, both domestically and internationally, and AA's international 757 fleet is underutilized and offers a substantially nicer JY cabin than the international US 757s. The US 767s only number 10, and are used just to Europe and South America - AA's 767-300ER fleet, coupled with the A330s US is taking delivery off, plus the underutilized AA international 757, and some inevitable network optimization, would be able to take care of the US 767 fleet. One example: the US network today flies 5 daily flights to Germany and Switzerland. I could see 2, maybe 3, of those going away with a merger - so that's the equivalent of 2-3 767s/other longhaul widebodies right there.

Beyond that, it gets a bit more complicated. The rest of US fleet - which is basically all the A320 family - is mostly still valuable, with the possible exception of some of the oldest US A320s, which are rather old. I think most of the rest of the US fleet (244 A319/A320/A321s + 16 A330s) would stick around. The A330s could be useful in the combined network, and the narrowbodies will mesh with the new jets AA is also taking. As for the A320 vs 737-800, I suspect AA will keep the A320 in a higher-density, smaller-F configuration and prioritize it for lower-yielding markets like PHX, MCO, LAS and Caribbean leisure markets. The more premium-configured 737-800s would be used for relatively higher-yielding markets.


User currently offlineAA94 From United States of America, joined Aug 2011, 582 posts, RR: 2
Reply 21, posted (1 year 6 months 3 weeks 4 days 22 hours ago) and read 5009 times:

Quoting LY777 (Reply 5):
If they merge, what will be the name of the "new" airline: AA or US?

It would be AA.

Quoting LY777 (Reply 5):
How certain of we of a merger? Is this still speculation or are we just waiting for the official announcement?

Speculation at best.

Quoting brilondon (Reply 10):
I doubt that there will be a merger considering the events of this week. It would be suicide for AA to be associated with US and there is really no reason for speculation, although fun, really, it is getting old.

I agree. I believe that AA's renegotiated agreement to begin flying the mid to large sized RJs is exactly what they need, and all but basically negates any value that US brings to the table.

Quoting SEA (Reply 11):
Well, if we are just going to be treating speculation as fact, let's say the combined fleet will be all 748i and MRJ100.  

  

Quoting TusAadvantage (Reply 17):
Any speculations on whether they will be keeping the hideous new AA livery, using the US livery, or forming a new hybrid livery (a la United/Continental)?

AA's new livery. The US brand will be DOA with a merger.

Quoting fraspotter (Reply 19):
I imagine they would keep the new AA livery since it was just released and have already gone into the process of updating the old signage to the new signage. I actually like the new livery...

  

Regardless of anyone's opinion, AA's spent plenty of time and money on their new look, and they aren't just going to throw that away.



Choose a challenge over competence / Eleanor Roosevelt
User currently offlineFLALEFTY From United States of America, joined Jan 2006, 461 posts, RR: 3
Reply 22, posted (1 year 6 months 3 weeks 4 days 20 hours ago) and read 4170 times:

http://aa.mediaroom.com/index.php?s=43&item=3286>

While there still might be some puts and takes still to come, it appears that both airlines' pre-merger fleet plans seem to be compatible post-merger. Here's my take on the post-merger fleet:

1) The MD-80 retirements (196 units) will be top priority. I expect these to be gone in less than 5 years.
2) The 734s (32 units) will be gone by the end of 2014.
3) Both airlines have active replacement programs for the 762ERs (23 units), but I bet they will be gone quicker that US Airway's current 2017 deadline.
4) I expect the ETOPs 757s (26 units) from both airlines to stick around to the end of the decade.
5) Do not be surprised if the new AA buys or leases more than the 8 A332s that LCC currently has on order.
6) Expect the 5 open 772ER orders from AA to be converted to 773ERs.
7) The timing of the A350 deliveries that LCC has scheduled starting in 2017 might be moved out closer to the end of the decade, which will match better with the expected retirement of AA's older 772ERs.
8) Due to "The Troubles", look for AA to ease out first delivery dates for 789s until 2016 or 2017.
9) I'm still not convinced that the new AA will take both the A32XNEO and the 737MAX. I bet that that there will be some horse trading and the NEO will eventually win this order.


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