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Opportunity For The 748I Afterall?  
User currently offlineAfricawings From United States of America, joined Dec 2004, 112 posts, RR: 0
Posted (1 year 9 months 4 weeks 1 day 7 hours ago) and read 20060 times:
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Fellow A. Netters:

Given the recent teething troubles between the A380 and the 787 Dreamliner, I‘m beginning to think that there might be a stop gap opportunity for commercial carriers to order the 748i while the teething problems of any new larger capacity aircraft ordered are worked out.

So, for example, rather than hang on to older 744’s in their fleets, wouldn’t it make senses for carriers like Delta and United to order (or lease) say 10 748i’s each to help with the inevitable delays as the new A350s and 777X’s and other large new jet work their way through their teething problems?

I know the 77Ws are available, but their don’t truly match the capabilities of the 748i. Alternatively; leasing companies might have a couple of 748i’s on order to use as leases to carriers like United when the introduction problems of the new aircraft become manifest.

Seems to me that it’s not a matter of if but when and for how long these technical challenges last (be it performance, range shortfalls, design hitches etc), they slow down commercial entry into service by a number of years (avg. 3 year delays).

The 748s are here and ready to go now!

Thoughts?

42 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineKC135Hydraulics From United States of America, joined Nov 2012, 318 posts, RR: 0
Reply 1, posted (1 year 9 months 4 weeks 1 day 7 hours ago) and read 20054 times:

77W > 748 for most applications as I see it. It's not going to happen.

User currently offlineKarelXWB From Netherlands, joined Jul 2012, 12664 posts, RR: 35
Reply 2, posted (1 year 9 months 4 weeks 1 day 7 hours ago) and read 19999 times:

Quote:
I know the 77Ws are available, but their don’t truly match the capabilities of the 748i.

Uh, yes they do? The 77W can do almost all of the 747 missions. The performance of the current 747-8 is not good enough, but things could change in 2014 with the upgrades coming in. However, 2014 could also be the year of the 777X announcement and such an aircraft could easily kill the 747-8i CASM.

At this point I don't really see a big market for the 747-8i. The 77W is too good, and a 777X will eventually kill it.



Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity. And I'm not sure about the universe.
User currently offlineBurkhard From Germany, joined Nov 2006, 4405 posts, RR: 2
Reply 3, posted (1 year 9 months 4 weeks 1 day 7 hours ago) and read 19737 times:

Quoting KC135Hydraulics (Reply 1):
77W > 748 for most applications as I see it. It's not going to happen.

What makes you think so? The 748I beats the 77W on capacity, range and CASM by half a generation. The 77W is the right aircraft for bean counters who want to shrink and loose market share...


User currently onlineqf002 From Australia, joined Jul 2011, 2994 posts, RR: 2
Reply 4, posted (1 year 9 months 4 weeks 1 day 7 hours ago) and read 19613 times:

Quoting Africawings (Thread starter):
The 748s are here and ready to go now

Until they, too, suffer from some random issue. No new aircraft is immune from the potential of issues, and there's enough that's new in the -8i that an airline is still taking a risk by introducing a new type.

The 77W has been proven to be an excellent and reliable aircraft. If an airline is looking to reduce the risk of issues then the 777 makes far more sense than the 748i.


User currently offlinefinnishway From Finland, joined Jul 2012, 313 posts, RR: 0
Reply 5, posted (1 year 9 months 4 weeks 1 day 6 hours ago) and read 19507 times:

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 2):
The performance of the current 747-8 is not good enough, but things could change in 2014 with the upgrades coming in.

What upgrades are you talking about?

[Edited 2013-01-27 12:49:25]

User currently offlineLY777 From France, joined Nov 2005, 2720 posts, RR: 2
Reply 6, posted (1 year 9 months 4 weeks 1 day 6 hours ago) and read 19474 times:

The 748I has more capacity than the 77W.
I think that the 77W is too small and the A380 too big for some mission.
Look at AF: they will operate the 77W until next April, but after, they will switch back to the 744 indefinitely: the 77W didn't have enough capacity for this route.



אמא, אני מתגעגע לך
User currently offlinena From Germany, joined Dec 1999, 10804 posts, RR: 9
Reply 7, posted (1 year 9 months 4 weeks 1 day 6 hours ago) and read 19394 times:

Quoting KC135Hydraulics (Reply 1):

77W > 748 for most applications as I see it. It's not going to happen.

Speaking as a passenger thats totally wrong. Having flown on the 748I I must say its a superior product. Its a shame that so many airlines do not appreciate that. Too many beancounters staring at and acting like the competition.

The 748I is much bigger so I dont know how you come to that verdict. Its as if you say 787 > 77W, same size difference as between 77W and 748.


User currently offlinesweair From Sweden, joined Nov 2011, 1831 posts, RR: 0
Reply 8, posted (1 year 9 months 4 weeks 1 day 6 hours ago) and read 19389 times:

The 748 will get engine PIP and has shed 5000 pounds of weight up to now, they aim to shave off another 5000pounds going forward. And the tail tank will be activated too. The freighter will get a thrust boost.

User currently offlineKarelXWB From Netherlands, joined Jul 2012, 12664 posts, RR: 35
Reply 9, posted (1 year 9 months 4 weeks 1 day 6 hours ago) and read 19274 times:

Quoting finnishway (Reply 6):
What upgrades are you talking about?

- Weight reductions (another 5000 lbs lighter)
- GEnx-2b engine PIP upgrade (2% less fuel burn)
- Software update (another 1% less fuel burn)
- Tail tank reactivation (important for the intercontinental)

Those changes will be introduced in 2014.

And between the first test frame and the current models coming of the line Boeing already did:

- Reduced weight by 5000 lbs, in the end the total weight savings would be around 10 000 lbs
- Another software update
- Tweaked the aileron position during flight to reduce fuel burn



Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity. And I'm not sure about the universe.
User currently offlineskipness1E From United Kingdom, joined Aug 2007, 3297 posts, RR: 1
Reply 10, posted (1 year 9 months 4 weeks 1 day 6 hours ago) and read 19259 times:

Quoting Africawings (Thread starter):
I‘m beginning to think that there might be a stop gap opportunity for commercial carriers to order the 748i while the teething problems of any new larger capacity aircraft ordered are worked out.

One doesn't make a multi-BILLION dollar investment with a 20+ year lifespan on the basis that service introduction will have teething troubles. It really, really doesn't work like that. It's not selling as it's a 43 year old platform tweaekd with a new wing and engines whereas the B77W is only based on a platform dating from the early 90s and the A380 is a new design. Add in that the B77W can do most of what the B747-8 can do but with only two engines and it's apparent why Boeing aren't selling more.

[Edited 2013-01-27 13:11:55]

User currently offlineskipness1E From United Kingdom, joined Aug 2007, 3297 posts, RR: 1
Reply 11, posted (1 year 9 months 4 weeks 1 day 6 hours ago) and read 19186 times:

Quoting na (Reply 8):
Too many beancounters staring at and acting like the competition.

They don't count beans.
They model using advanced techniques and algorithms. They employ genuinely clever and smart people who are well paid to make the right decision for the business. There seems to be a unison across many different airlines in different alliances on different continents that the B747 is not the answer going into the 2020s.

Still, if calling them "beancounters" makes them sound like fools then I cannot stop you.


User currently offlinetdscanuck From Canada, joined Jan 2006, 12709 posts, RR: 80
Reply 12, posted (1 year 9 months 4 weeks 1 day 6 hours ago) and read 19022 times:

Quoting Africawings (Thread starter):
Given the recent teething troubles between the A380 and the 787 Dreamliner, I‘m beginning to think that there might be a stop gap opportunity for commercial carriers to order the 748i while the teething problems of any new larger capacity aircraft ordered are worked out.

Not really. The 747-8I will have teething troubles too. Moving from one airframe to another doesn't fix that problem.

Quoting na (Reply 8):
Speaking as a passenger thats totally wrong. Having flown on the 748I I must say its a superior product. Its a shame that so many airlines do not appreciate that.

They absolutely do appreciate it. But what they *really* appreciate is that passengers (in general, no necessarily you specifically) will not spend a dime for a "superior" airframe so there's absolutely no business case to base your purchase decisions on that.

Tom.


User currently offlineiahmark From United States of America, joined Nov 2007, 52 posts, RR: 0
Reply 13, posted (1 year 9 months 4 weeks 1 day 5 hours ago) and read 18850 times:

I think the 747-8i is a niche aircraft but it could have a life; like many said before it will slot between a 777W and A380 capacity wise, also it would be a good choice for airlines that have few destinations or operate from hot and high airports as it’s the only other alternative with 4 engines besides de A380.this means less penalties operating from such airfields; good candidates would be South African Airways, Iberia, KLM too, also American carriers like UA/CO and even DL.

User currently offlineLY777 From France, joined Nov 2005, 2720 posts, RR: 2
Reply 14, posted (1 year 9 months 4 weeks 1 day 5 hours ago) and read 18788 times:

What I don't understand is why the 748I is considered like a niche a/c, contrary to the 744: the difference of capacity is not so important


אמא, אני מתגעגע לך
User currently offlinetrex8 From United States of America, joined Nov 2002, 4832 posts, RR: 14
Reply 15, posted (1 year 9 months 4 weeks 1 day 5 hours ago) and read 18721 times:
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Quoting LY777 (Reply 18):
What I don't understand is why the 748I is considered like a niche a/c, contrary to the 744: the difference of capacity is not so important

Many airlines bought the 747 because it was the only thing around in years gone by with the range they needed, with the large twin widebodies like the 777 today, there is an alternative and with many routes also fragmenting and with more competitors its easier to fill a smaller plane (which is also more economic fuel wise).


User currently offlineCalebWilliams From United States of America, joined Dec 2008, 318 posts, RR: 0
Reply 16, posted (1 year 9 months 4 weeks 1 day 5 hours ago) and read 18721 times:

Quoting LY777 (Reply 18):
What I don't understand is why the 748I is considered like a niche a/c, contrary to the 744: the difference of capacity is not so important

Because of what else is available. When the 747-100 was introduced, the same options were not available.



Caleb Williams MSP AUS STL AMS CPH LGW YYZ
User currently offlineiahmark From United States of America, joined Nov 2007, 52 posts, RR: 0
Reply 17, posted (1 year 9 months 4 weeks 1 day 5 hours ago) and read 18622 times:

The times we are living, when the 747 debuted and even up to the 747-400 it was the biggest commercial plane in service.

Nowadays you have the 777W nipping as its heels plus the A380 which is capacity king; you also have the market shifting to twin engines, the saving grace for the A380 its capacity which dictates –for now- the use of 4 engines otherwise it would have been toast!
You have to facto also newcomers like the 787-10 and the A350-1000 coming in service soon and that put some pressure on the 747-8i.

However I believe the 747 could be more competitive because it’s here and available at this moment, the trick is to use it with more dense layouts, let say from 430-460 passengers which will make it more cost effective than the 777W and getting close to the A380; it should be used use in routes where twins may incur penalties (hot and high) and in airports where the conversion/set up to receive A380 may take some time or can’t be applicable.

Quoting LY777 (Reply 18):
What I don't understand is why the 747-8i is considered like a niche a/c, contrary to the 744: the difference of capacity is not so important


User currently offlineSonomaFlyer From United States of America, joined Apr 2010, 1871 posts, RR: 0
Reply 18, posted (1 year 9 months 4 weeks 1 day 5 hours ago) and read 18621 times:
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It's niche because the 77W can do almost everything the 748 can with less fuel burned. The A380 can carry more people a comparable distance. This boxes in the business case for the 748 pretty severely.

Not many airlines need the 748 given what's out there that is either cheaper to operate or can carry more people.


User currently offlineViscount724 From Switzerland, joined Oct 2006, 25843 posts, RR: 22
Reply 19, posted (1 year 9 months 4 weeks 1 day 5 hours ago) and read 18550 times:

Quoting LY777 (Reply 18):
What I don't understand is why the 748I is considered like a niche a/c, contrary to the 744:

Because the 77W didn't go into service until 15 years after the 744.


User currently offlinehOmsAR From United States of America, joined Jan 2010, 1199 posts, RR: 0
Reply 20, posted (1 year 9 months 4 weeks 1 day 4 hours ago) and read 18295 times:

I'd like to make a wild prediction:

10 years from now, when the 777X is in service, Boeing will discontinue production of the 747, having run out of 747-8 orders (most of them cargo, with maybe a handful of additional passenger models being ordered by carriers that want to top-up their fleets before production ends).

Starting the next day, you will see "Boeing should have never ended 747 production" threads running alongside the similar 757 threads here on a.net, with people using every argument in the world (except for market realities) as a reason that production should still be going on.



I was raised by a cup of coffee.
User currently offlineCerecl From Australia, joined Jul 2008, 740 posts, RR: 0
Reply 21, posted (1 year 9 months 4 weeks 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 18140 times:

Quoting Africawings (Thread starter):
the 787 Dreamliner

I don't see how 787's troubles benefit 747-8i. They are totally different classes of airplanes.

Quoting Africawings (Thread starter):
wouldn’t it make senses for carriers like Delta and United to order (or lease) say 10 748i’s each to help with the inevitable delays

Sorry, but I don't see too much sense in doing so. We don't know how long A350 will be delayed, and 77X hasn't even been launched. What if A350 ends being delayed for 6 months?

Quoting Africawings (Thread starter):
but their don’t truly match the capabilities of the 748i.

The question is, are the enhanced capability required? From the order number of past few years the answer seems to be a resounding "NO".

Quoting Africawings (Thread starter):
leasing companies might have a couple of 748i’s on order to use as leases to carriers like United when the introduction problems of the new aircraft become manifest.

Again, what if these "problems" do not become manifest? It is not like 748i are in demand everywhere so leasing company may have a hard time finding an airline willing to lease them if UA/DL no longer requires them.

Quoting Africawings (Thread starter):
The 748s are here and ready to go now!

747-8i has had better availability compared to 77W and A380 for quite a while now yet it did not seem to help.

[Edited 2013-01-27 16:53:52]

User currently offlinebirdbrainz From United States of America, joined May 2005, 470 posts, RR: 0
Reply 22, posted (1 year 9 months 4 weeks 1 day 1 hour ago) and read 16709 times:

Quoting na (Reply 8):
Speaking as a passenger thats totally wrong. Having flown on the 748I I must say its a superior product. Its a shame that so many airlines do not appreciate that. Too many beancounters staring at and acting like the competition.

I agree. I just got my first ride on the upper deck of the 748i, and nothing comes close in terms of business class comfort. The storage bins under the windows are something that the 77W just can't equal. Also, LH's new seats are truly wonderful.

All that said, though, I can see how the 777 will, in one way or another, kill the 748 economically. I just hope that Boeing can sell a few more before that happens.

Long live the 747.



A good landing is one you can walk away from. A great landing is if the aircraft can be flown again.
User currently offlinegihanjaya380 From United States of America, joined Jan 2013, 21 posts, RR: 0
Reply 23, posted (1 year 9 months 4 weeks 1 day ago) and read 16578 times:

Coming to think of it, I have not seen much 747-8i and 747-8F in service except for LH and CV. Any reason behind this?

Gihan


User currently offlineDocLightning From United States of America, joined Nov 2005, 20194 posts, RR: 59
Reply 24, posted (1 year 9 months 4 weeks 1 day ago) and read 16579 times:

Quoting LY777 (Reply 18):

What I don't understand is why the 748I is considered like a niche a/c, contrary to the 744: the difference of capacity is not so important

The 77W replaced the 744. Yes, it has 12% smaller passenger capacity but larger cargo capacity. It has almost the same range as the 744. It is a 744 replacement. The proof is in the sales: as soon as the 77W was offered, the 744 orders began to dry up. If it was not considered a satisfactory replacement, the airlines would have said so.

The 744 was so popular, in part, because its only competition was the MD-11. The only other aircraft with 7000+NM range was the 747-SP. Once the 777 became capable of matching the 744's range, it became very popular. That kind of lift is very useful to airlines.

Quoting birdbrainz (Reply 27):
Long live the 747.

   Long live the Queen.


25 tdscanuck : Of the 12 delivered 747-8I's so far, four are with LH and the others are all private, so there's no way to see a 747-8I with anyone other than LH rig
26 Post contains images Caryjack : The B-748i is certainly boxed in and may be gone in 10 years but what will replace the B-748F? Something currently being sold...I don't know what it
27 gihanjaya380 : Hi Tom, Thank you for the comment. Since the cargo capacity of the 747-8F is better the the rest, it is better for cargo carriers than passenger. If
28 Darksnowynight : Why? What does it cost Boeing to offer the 8i alongside the 8f? The I model may not be selling, but it's not as though BCA is taking a loss on suppor
29 Post contains links jbcarioca : There is no logical basis for a B748 buy, unless the price is very, very cheap. The basic aircraft is 1960's technology, with no FBW , a fuselage desi
30 bongodog1964 : Firstly, the 787's problems have no bearing on anything other than orders for 767's and A330's. If a carrier needs a plane in the 787 class they won'
31 Post contains images CXB77L : I agree. The 747-8i's future is not bright, especially with the 777-9X on the horizon. There's no reason why an airline would buy a quad when a simil
32 airproxx : Funny you mention this, I know from an inside source that AF was recently evaluating the 747-8 as a 744 replacement... Forthe time no decision has be
33 Aquila3 : Except that for now it is carrying a LOAD of dreams...
34 Africawings : Great feedback all. But don't forget that like the 767, airlines might yet find a useful role for the 748i. If I remember correctly 767's didn't reall
35 CXB77L : Actually, the 747-8i has eight fewer LD3 positions in the lower cargo hold than the 777-300ER. On top of that, the 747-8i carries a greater number of
36 slider : Look, everyone loves the whale. It's got a very emotional and romantic pull for we airline enthusiasts. But it also colors our outlook to some extent.
37 jumpjets : I still can't fathom why BA haven't ordered some 748is. Their 777-300ERs seat 297 folks and the A380 will seat 469 something of a quantum leap between
38 gihanjaya380 : I was thinking the same thing. I think BA and Delta (after NW merger) has a lot of older 747-400 that will need replacing. Replacing them now might g
39 Stitch : Airbus and RR at least matched Boeing and GE to win the last VLA RFP, so that ship has sailed. If BA needs more VLAs, they will take additional A380s
40 bongodog1964 : In theory its the ideal solution, to have a fleet of many types with a plane available all the way up the scale every 40 or 50 seats, in reality howe
41 Viscount724 : You also have to consider the longer term. The 77W is likely to hold its value much better than the 748 due to its performance, versatility and the m
42 Darksnowynight : Right. CX is a good example of this philosophy in action. They do great for payload & PAX ops on their 77Ws, and if the 748i was really viable in
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