Tupolev160 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR: Posted (10 months 3 weeks 14 hours ago) and read 7858 times:
Today we were talking about AZ cancelling FCO-PEK service, which came as a surprise to many. Among all possible hypothesis, we may start wondering who is actually taking that much passengers from AZ that they can't sustain a service between the capitals of the 2nd and 8th largest economies in the world. Cause, one starts to think, if that route can fail - any route can eventually fail, and be replaced by more profitable one-stop transit connections. Anyway, this thread is about a bit different question. Airlines open and cancel routes given their business results and strategic goals... We've been talking of many airlines cancelling routes, others readjusting their schedule, but there is one airline that for the last several years only seem to be opening new routes indefinitely, without cancelling or reducing frequency at any of those.
As an example, TK has been flying almost daily to BEG for many years, and the loads seemed to be quite good and capacity sufficient. Then FlyDubai entered the market - TK added more flights. Then QR entered the market - TK added even more flights. Lately Pegasus Airlines entered the market - TK became double-daily, and even up-to 18 weekly in SJJ - a frequency similar to IST-ZRH - (one would definitely wonder where the demand comes from, given SJJ is not exactly the economic powerhouse and handles just half-million pax a year), but then again, as other airlines entered the market, TK doubled or tripled the number of flights to given destinations...
These are short-medium haul examples, perhaps someone has long-haul examples of the never-step-back strategy.
So: TK - An airline business miracle or a dumping monster?
Tupolev160 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR: Reply 2, posted (10 months 3 weeks 14 hours ago) and read 7789 times:
Quoting LAXintl (Reply 1): Samething domestically - some routes have been cut, or in many cases given over to all Y class AnadouluJet as mainline TK was losing money, or the route did not need business class seats.
Yes, TK's coverage within Turkey is very low* and low-cost airlines do dominate the market. However i just wonder how TK manages to make a profit with 14 weekly to SKP(!) and 18 weekly to a place like SJJ - that were served by daily or even less only a year ago, just amazing.
Anyway, it seems Pegasus became a fierce competitor for TK in Eastern Europe/Middle-East region(s).
Pe@rson From United Kingdom, joined Jan 2001, 19023 posts, RR: 53 Reply 6, posted (10 months 3 weeks 14 hours ago) and read 7705 times:
Quoting Tupolev160 (Reply 2): TK's coverage within Turkey is very low and low-cost airlines do dominate the market.
In terms of LCC seats as a proportion of total seats domestically, in 2012 they represented 50.4%. While this represented a marginal drop over 2011 (52%), it was a major increase from 23.6% in 2009. (Internationally, LCCs had 19.9% of all seats in 2012, up from 7.8% in 2009.) Source for all: CAPA's LCC analysis.
[Edited 2013-02-03 11:41:07]
"Everyone writing for the Telegraph knows that the way to grab eyeballs is with Ryanair and/or sex."
Steelyman From Andorra, joined Feb 2007, 100 posts, RR: 1 Reply 8, posted (10 months 3 weeks 14 hours ago) and read 7661 times:
IIRC since 2003 there are no cancelled or reduced routes but I'm not 100% sure. What I can tell is that since 2008 there is NO case such as this one except for seasonality schedule changes (summer and winter seasons)
Tupolev160 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR: Reply 14, posted (10 months 3 weeks 11 hours ago) and read 7012 times:
Quoting LAXintl (Reply 13): Quoting Tupolev160 (Reply 10):
That's good, but i still know very few Turkish people who will first look at TK when thinking to take a plane inside Turkey.
Also, do you include AnadoluJet in those ~50% market covered by TK?
Off course - AnadoluJet is Turkish Airlines. Flight numbers are all TK flight numbers.
There is the quiproquo. I wasn't including AnadoluJet in the operations and those who fly it don't say "we flew/we're going to fly Turk Hava Yollari" but Anadolu. Many Turks are scared of TK's prices. I'm very suprised however that NAV has been dropped, being the gateway to one of the major touristic centers of Turkey. Stil, it can be reached easily via ASR as well where TK flies...how often? But as of 2013 i think they restarted it.
It is more of a surprise for me that it has been started at all than it was dropped eventually.
Quoting LAXintl (Reply 13): Quoting Steelyman (Reply 8):
IIRC since 2003 there are no cancelled or reduced routes but I'm not 100% sure.
Sure there has been.
What he wants to say is that TK dropped the least flights amongst all major Middle-Eastern carriers in the last decade, compared to QR, EY and especially the better performing EK. Those seem to be much more cautious (or impatient?).
Quoting Tupolev160 (Reply 14): It is more of a surprise for me that it has been started at all than it was dropped eventually.
It is still operating. I can't comment on the initial operations prior to cancellation, but after the relaunch I've been on the flight two times. Both times, both ways full load with very little amount of Turkish people in it. Mostly connecting passengers I believe. This is very reasonable since the frequency has increased gradually to daily operations since the relaunch.
DolphinAir747 From United States of America, joined Jun 2012, 302 posts, RR: 0 Reply 16, posted (10 months 3 weeks 9 hours ago) and read 6772 times:
Quoting mah4546 (Reply 11): 1999-2001. It we dropped following 9/11. As TK was then partnered with AA, there was no hurt. Even then, LX, LH, AZ, etc. aren't hurt by flying to a rival alliances fortress hub, why would TK?
The other airlines have much more O&D traffic Europe-side. MIA is a large destination for Germans, many of whom are *A elites.
Viscount724 From Switzerland, joined Oct 2006, 23251 posts, RR: 23 Reply 17, posted (10 months 3 weeks 8 hours ago) and read 6719 times:
Quoting Tupolev160 (Reply 14): What he wants to say is that TK dropped the least flights amongst all major Middle-Eastern carriers in the last decade
TK isn't considered a Middle Eastern carrier according to usual airline industry definitions. They consider themselves a European carrier and all traffic and other data in industry sources (IATA, ICAO etc.) includes TK as part of Europe. I realize most of Turkey isn't in Europe geographically.
stylo777 From Turkey, joined Feb 2006, 2888 posts, RR: 12 Reply 20, posted (10 months 3 weeks 4 hours ago) and read 6114 times:
Quoting Tupolev160 (Reply 14): I'm very suprised however that NAV has been dropped, being the gateway to one of the major touristic centers of Turkey. Stil, it can be reached easily via ASR as well where TK flies...how often? But as of 2013 i think they restarted it.
NAV is operating double daily...
1 TK2006 D IST D NAV 0955 1115 0 09JAN13 30MAR13 738 1:20
2 TK2008 D IST D NAV 1955 2120 0 28OCT12 30MAR13 734 1:25
in fact, I flew that route last year twice; both times with 319.
ASR is of course the second gateway to Capadocia, the touristic center, after NAV; however, ASR is also very large in terms of economy and trade.
ankaraflyjet From Turkey, joined Mar 2007, 262 posts, RR: 1 Reply 21, posted (10 months 3 weeks 1 hour ago) and read 5485 times:
The success of TK lies in the operating costs and geographical advantage. TK flies to Europe, CIS, ME, North Africa and many sub-Saharan African routes with a narrow body and this is something major European carriers cannot do (i.e. BA, AF etc) You can fly from IST to Dublin with a 737 or A320 in 3 hour and 45 minutes and from IST to Dubai in 4 hours. That is why TK is attracting an increasing number of connecting traffic from European airports towards East vice versa. Combined with TK's unrivalled in cabin service, it is difficult for many airlines to offer better service, more frequencies etc.
Given the potentail of Turkey, the trend will go like that for a while before TK starts to drop destinations. TK will grow wider and will introduce new destinations and eventually will be able to assess whether the destination makes sense as part of a global play-ground or not. This may happen 3 to 4 years from today. Of course act of God or civil unrest etc. type of reasons are always there just like it is the case for DAM at present.
On a related topic, if TK was flying to MIA today I don't think they would cancel it as before. The way TK operates today is changed since then and any seizable North American destination will work for TK.
leftyboarder From Turkey, joined Apr 2008, 690 posts, RR: 1 Reply 22, posted (10 months 3 weeks 1 hour ago) and read 5375 times:
Quoting ankaraflyjet (Reply 22): On a related topic, if TK was flying to MIA today I don't think they would cancel it as before. The way TK operates today is changed since then and any seizable North American destination will work for TK.
Right on. If only they had the planes in their fleet now... Hence the 40-strong order for 333s and 77Ws and leases for this summer.
leftyboarder From Turkey, joined Apr 2008, 690 posts, RR: 1 Reply 24, posted (10 months 3 weeks ago) and read 5073 times:
BTW, MIA, KUL and SXB are the only stations canceled and not restarted as of yet, with KUL probably coming back online this year.
Quoting Tupolev160 (Reply 2): Yes, TK's coverage within Turkey is very low* and low-cost airlines do dominate the market. However i just wonder how TK manages to make a profit with 14 weekly to SKP(!) and 18 weekly to a place like SJJ - that were served by daily or even less only a year ago, just amazing.
Anyway, it seems Pegasus became a fierce competitor for TK in Eastern Europe/Middle-East region(s).
*compared with the share of low-cost airlines.
If for example KL can operate 3 daily to LBA or 3 daily to BGO, smallish cities in other countries, it shouldn't be a surprise that TK flies 2 daily to SJJ or SKP.
25 ceo@afg: Where is it likely TK will add A380 or B748i flights if and when they order those aircraft? Not entirely sure what is TKs most heavy duty routes.
26 leftyboarder: BKK, JFK, LAX, PEK, PVG come to mind. Not to say you won't see it doing the occasional run to LHR or FRA if they order it
27 gokmengs: Heck they could even do BJV and AYT in the summer time
28 bahadir: I think MIA is still a low priority compared to other US destinations. The entire reason why MIA was opened was due to the influx of Turkish people t
29 ytz: Network effects. It works for EK. And it should work quite well for TK. They could lose money on SJJ and BEG and then make up all of it and then some
30 Istanbuler83: What do you mean exactly with that? There are no TK flights outbound to Asia from Eastern-Turkey. The only real international hub is IST. So, there i
31 sofianec: For many years TK flew a single daily flt IST-SOF and it was always pretty O/D as connections were hampered by the lack of convenient times and in 90%
32 TurkishWings: As per Tupolev160, TK is a Middle -Eastern airline. We gave him all the proof we can but he will not get it. He will not accept it. Most of the time,
33 ytz: I meant that oddly enough, Turks are the people who are best positioned to use DOH, AUH, or DXB, becuase of the backtracking involved in using IST. T
34 777way: Can the Middle Eastern carriers capture Eastern Turkey markets, especially the LCCs?
35 ytz: They should be able to get some. That said, it would really only help for South Asia and South-East Asia bound travel. And then only for the eastern
36 ASA: How much traffic is generated in Eastern Turkey? Does anyone have the numbers? IST is still the overwhelmingly dominant market in Turkey ... and the
37 viasa: 19JAN2013: Istanbul (IST) - Sebha (SEB) route has been suspended until March 10, 2013. Sebha (SEB) - Istanbul (IST) route has been suspended until Mar
38 TurkishWings: Great list though most of the mentioned routes are seasonal routes... Mostly summer only leisure routes...