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Does Turkish Airlines Ever Cancels/Reduces Routes?  
User currently offlineTupolev160 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Posted (1 year 8 months 2 weeks 5 days 9 hours ago) and read 8667 times:

Today we were talking about AZ cancelling FCO-PEK service, which came as a surprise to many. Among all possible hypothesis, we may start wondering who is actually taking that much passengers from AZ that they can't sustain a service between the capitals of the 2nd and 8th largest economies in the world. Cause, one starts to think, if that route can fail - any route can eventually fail, and be replaced by more profitable one-stop transit connections. Anyway, this thread is about a bit different question. Airlines open and cancel routes given their business results and strategic goals... We've been talking of many airlines cancelling routes, others readjusting their schedule, but there is one airline that for the last several years only seem to be opening new routes indefinitely, without cancelling or reducing frequency at any of those.

As an example, TK has been flying almost daily to BEG for many years, and the loads seemed to be quite good and capacity sufficient. Then FlyDubai entered the market - TK added more flights. Then QR entered the market - TK added even more flights. Lately Pegasus Airlines entered the market - TK became double-daily, and even up-to 18 weekly in SJJ - a frequency similar to IST-ZRH - (one would definitely wonder where the demand comes from, given SJJ is not exactly the economic powerhouse and handles just half-million pax a year), but then again, as other airlines entered the market, TK doubled or tripled the number of flights to given destinations...
These are short-medium haul examples, perhaps someone has long-haul examples of the never-step-back strategy.

So: TK - An airline business miracle or a dumping monster?

Share your thoughts.

[Edited 2013-02-03 11:14:22]

53 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineLAXintl From United States of America, joined May 2000, 25719 posts, RR: 50
Reply 1, posted (1 year 8 months 2 weeks 5 days 9 hours ago) and read 8633 times:

Yes TK certainly has withdrawn / reduced routes that did not work.

For example Miami and Kuala Lumpur are two longhaul routes that were cut.

Closer by in Europe Thessaloniki is an example of a market that was cut, and eventually brought back around 10-years later.

Samething domestically - some routes have been cut, or in many cases given over to all Y class AnadouluJet as mainline TK was losing money, or the route did not need business class seats.

Quoting Tupolev160 (Thread starter):
So: TK - An airline business miracle or a dumping monster?

Considering TK has published profits for the last 10-years, it cant be dumping capacity for the sake of dumping capacity without some positive economic return.



From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
User currently offlineTupolev160 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 2, posted (1 year 8 months 2 weeks 5 days 9 hours ago) and read 8598 times:

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 1):
Samething domestically - some routes have been cut, or in many cases given over to all Y class AnadouluJet as mainline TK was losing money, or the route did not need business class seats.

Yes, TK's coverage within Turkey is very low* and low-cost airlines do dominate the market. However i just wonder how TK manages to make a profit with 14 weekly to SKP(!) and 18 weekly to a place like SJJ - that were served by daily or even less only a year ago, just amazing.
Anyway, it seems Pegasus became a fierce competitor for TK in Eastern Europe/Middle-East region(s).

*compared with the share of low-cost airlines.

[Edited 2013-02-03 11:41:18]

User currently offlineSCQ83 From United States of America, joined Oct 2012, 1019 posts, RR: 0
Reply 3, posted (1 year 8 months 2 weeks 5 days 9 hours ago) and read 8569 times:

SKP and SJJ are very close to IST... much closer than almost any other major hub. Those are short flights.

They also have very little competition in terms of connections: LX and OS (and maybe FZ) in SKP and OS in SJJ.


User currently offlineLAXintl From United States of America, joined May 2000, 25719 posts, RR: 50
Reply 4, posted (1 year 8 months 2 weeks 5 days 9 hours ago) and read 8542 times:

Quoting Tupolev160 (Reply 2):
Yes, TK's coverage within Turkey is very low and low-cost airlines do dominate the market.

Very low?

As of September 2012 its domestic market share was almost exactly 50% serving 35 destinations.

Also keep in mind the Turkish domestic market size has tripled in less then 10-years, so yes there are multiple LCCs, but the pie has continued to grow for the benefit of all.



From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
User currently offlineDolphinAir747 From United States of America, joined Jun 2012, 312 posts, RR: 0
Reply 5, posted (1 year 8 months 2 weeks 5 days 8 hours ago) and read 8527 times:

Tk flew to MIA? When?
I assume they were hurt by MIA's status as a rival alliance's fortress hub.


User currently offlinePe@rson From United Kingdom, joined Jan 2001, 19236 posts, RR: 52
Reply 6, posted (1 year 8 months 2 weeks 5 days 8 hours ago) and read 8514 times:

Quoting Tupolev160 (Reply 2):
TK's coverage within Turkey is very low and low-cost airlines do dominate the market.

In terms of LCC seats as a proportion of total seats domestically, in 2012 they represented 50.4%. While this represented a marginal drop over 2011 (52%), it was a major increase from 23.6% in 2009. (Internationally, LCCs had 19.9% of all seats in 2012, up from 7.8% in 2009.) Source for all: CAPA's LCC analysis.

[Edited 2013-02-03 11:41:07]


"Everyone writing for the Telegraph knows that the way to grab eyeballs is with Ryanair and/or sex."
User currently offlineTupolev160 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 7, posted (1 year 8 months 2 weeks 5 days 8 hours ago) and read 8496 times:

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 4):
Very low?

As of September 2012 its domestic market share was almost exactly 50% serving 35 destinations.

Check the edit.


User currently offlineSteelyman From Andorra, joined Feb 2007, 122 posts, RR: 1
Reply 8, posted (1 year 8 months 2 weeks 5 days 8 hours ago) and read 8470 times:

IIRC since 2003 there are no cancelled or reduced routes but I'm not 100% sure. What I can tell is that since 2008 there is NO case such as this one except for seasonality schedule changes (summer and winter seasons)


BRGDS, Mike
User currently offlineusflyer msp From United States of America, joined May 2000, 2133 posts, RR: 0
Reply 9, posted (1 year 8 months 2 weeks 5 days 8 hours ago) and read 8422 times:

Quoting DolphinAir747 (Reply 5):
Tk flew to MIA? When?
I assume they were hurt by MIA's status as a rival alliance's fortress hub.

TK flew to MIA in the late 90's/early 2000's when they were still partners with AA.


User currently offlineTupolev160 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 10, posted (1 year 8 months 2 weeks 5 days 8 hours ago) and read 8275 times:

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 4):

That's good, but i still know very few Turkish people who will first look at TK when thinking to take a plane inside Turkey.

Also, do you include AnadoluJet in those ~50% market covered by TK?



Quoting Steelyman (Reply 8):

That's what seems to me as well and definitely it's kind of odd, it would mean that all routes launched are profitable or they're waiting for the competition to opt out...


[Edited 2013-02-03 12:34:59]

User currently offlinemah4546 From Sweden, joined Jan 2001, 33010 posts, RR: 71
Reply 11, posted (1 year 8 months 2 weeks 5 days 7 hours ago) and read 8172 times:

Quoting DolphinAir747 (Reply 5):

Tk flew to MIA? When?
I assume they were hurt by MIA's status as a rival alliance's fortress hub.


1999-2001. It we dropped following 9/11. As TK was then partnered with AA, there was no hurt. Even then, LX, LH, AZ, etc. aren't hurt by flying to a rival alliances fortress hub, why would TK?



a.
User currently offlinesxb From France, joined Sep 2008, 138 posts, RR: 0
Reply 12, posted (1 year 8 months 2 weeks 5 days 7 hours ago) and read 8093 times:

SXB was cancelled in 08/2008 (route was opened in 1992).


SXB
User currently offlineLAXintl From United States of America, joined May 2000, 25719 posts, RR: 50
Reply 13, posted (1 year 8 months 2 weeks 5 days 6 hours ago) and read 7953 times:

Quoting Tupolev160 (Reply 7):
Check the edit.

TK is still the #1 airline domestically by a large margin.

Other LCCs, Pegasus, Atlasjet, Onur Air, Sun Express fight out for the other 50% of the pie.

Quoting Tupolev160 (Reply 10):
That's good, but i still know very few Turkish people who will first look at TK when thinking to take a plane inside Turkey.

Also, do you include AnadoluJet in those ~50% market covered by TK?

Off course - AnadoluJet is Turkish Airlines. Flight numbers are all TK flight numbers.

Somehow - 15.9 million passengers chose to fly TK domestically in 2012. Maybe not your friends, but still almost 16 million people, the largest slice of the market.

Quoting Steelyman (Reply 8):
IIRC since 2003 there are no cancelled or reduced routes but I'm not 100% sure.

Sure there has been.

For example Osaka was dropped to come back. Same with Cape Town. Tbilisi was dropped to return.

Domestic service to Isparta, Usak, Adiyaman, Sinop, Siirt, Nevsehir, Sivas, Kahramanmaras and Balikesir have been dropped. Some to return later.

At the end while the trajectory is towards growth, if markets are not sustainable they do get reduced or dropped entirely.



From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
User currently offlineTupolev160 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 14, posted (1 year 8 months 2 weeks 5 days 6 hours ago) and read 7821 times:

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 13):
Quoting Tupolev160 (Reply 10):
That's good, but i still know very few Turkish people who will first look at TK when thinking to take a plane inside Turkey.

Also, do you include AnadoluJet in those ~50% market covered by TK?

Off course - AnadoluJet is Turkish Airlines. Flight numbers are all TK flight numbers.

There is the quiproquo. I wasn't including AnadoluJet in the operations and those who fly it don't say "we flew/we're going to fly Turk Hava Yollari" but Anadolu. Many Turks are scared of TK's prices. I'm very suprised however that NAV has been dropped, being the gateway to one of the major touristic centers of Turkey. Stil, it can be reached easily via ASR as well where TK flies...how often? But as of 2013 i think they restarted it.

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 13):
Same with Cape Town.

It is more of a surprise for me that it has been started at all than it was dropped eventually.

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 13):
Quoting Steelyman (Reply 8):
IIRC since 2003 there are no cancelled or reduced routes but I'm not 100% sure.

Sure there has been.

What he wants to say is that TK dropped the least flights amongst all major Middle-Eastern carriers in the last decade, compared to QR, EY and especially the better performing EK. Those seem to be much more cautious (or impatient?).


User currently offlineboun From Turkey, joined Nov 2012, 26 posts, RR: 0
Reply 15, posted (1 year 8 months 2 weeks 5 days 5 hours ago) and read 7690 times:

Quoting Tupolev160 (Reply 14):
But as of 2013 i think they restarted it.

Yes, it is double daily both ways.

Quoting Tupolev160 (Reply 14):
It is more of a surprise for me that it has been started at all than it was dropped eventually.

It is still operating. I can't comment on the initial operations prior to cancellation, but after the relaunch I've been on the flight two times. Both times, both ways full load with very little amount of Turkish people in it. Mostly connecting passengers I believe. This is very reasonable since the frequency has increased gradually to daily operations since the relaunch.


User currently offlineDolphinAir747 From United States of America, joined Jun 2012, 312 posts, RR: 0
Reply 16, posted (1 year 8 months 2 weeks 5 days 3 hours ago) and read 7581 times:

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 11):
1999-2001. It we dropped following 9/11. As TK was then partnered with AA, there was no hurt. Even then, LX, LH, AZ, etc. aren't hurt by flying to a rival alliances fortress hub, why would TK?

The other airlines have much more O&D traffic Europe-side. MIA is a large destination for Germans, many of whom are *A elites.


User currently offlineViscount724 From Switzerland, joined Oct 2006, 25626 posts, RR: 22
Reply 17, posted (1 year 8 months 2 weeks 5 days 3 hours ago) and read 7528 times:

Quoting Tupolev160 (Reply 14):
What he wants to say is that TK dropped the least flights amongst all major Middle-Eastern carriers in the last decade

TK isn't considered a Middle Eastern carrier according to usual airline industry definitions. They consider themselves a European carrier and all traffic and other data in industry sources (IATA, ICAO etc.) includes TK as part of Europe. I realize most of Turkey isn't in Europe geographically.


User currently offlineSOBHI51 From Saudi Arabia, joined Jun 2003, 3499 posts, RR: 17
Reply 18, posted (1 year 8 months 2 weeks 5 days ago) and read 7252 times:
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Quoting Tupolev160 (Thread starter):
As an example, TK

They cancelled DAM for obvious reason.



I am against any terrorist acts committed under the name of Islam
User currently offlinemah4546 From Sweden, joined Jan 2001, 33010 posts, RR: 71
Reply 19, posted (1 year 8 months 2 weeks 5 days ago) and read 7170 times:

Quoting DolphinAir747 (Reply 16):
The other airlines have much more O&D traffic Europe-side. MIA is a large destination for Germans, many of whom are *A elites.

Miami-Istanbul demographics are no different. Heavily Turkish originating and one of the larger U.S.-Turkey markets.



a.
User currently offlinestylo777 From Germany, joined Feb 2006, 2990 posts, RR: 11
Reply 20, posted (1 year 8 months 2 weeks 4 days 23 hours ago) and read 6923 times:

Quoting Tupolev160 (Reply 14):
I'm very suprised however that NAV has been dropped, being the gateway to one of the major touristic centers of Turkey. Stil, it can be reached easily via ASR as well where TK flies...how often? But as of 2013 i think they restarted it.

NAV is operating double daily...

1 TK2006 D IST D NAV 0955 1115 0 09JAN13 30MAR13 738 1:20
2 TK2008 D IST D NAV 1955 2120 0 28OCT12 30MAR13 734 1:25

in fact, I flew that route last year twice; both times with 319.

ASR is of course the second gateway to Capadocia, the touristic center, after NAV; however, ASR is also very large in terms of economy and trade.


User currently offlineankaraflyjet From Turkey, joined Mar 2007, 267 posts, RR: 1
Reply 21, posted (1 year 8 months 2 weeks 4 days 20 hours ago) and read 6294 times:

The success of TK lies in the operating costs and geographical advantage. TK flies to Europe, CIS, ME, North Africa and many sub-Saharan African routes with a narrow body and this is something major European carriers cannot do (i.e. BA, AF etc) You can fly from IST to Dublin with a 737 or A320 in 3 hour and 45 minutes and from IST to Dubai in 4 hours. That is why TK is attracting an increasing number of connecting traffic from European airports towards East vice versa. Combined with TK's unrivalled in cabin service, it is difficult for many airlines to offer better service, more frequencies etc.

Given the potentail of Turkey, the trend will go like that for a while before TK starts to drop destinations. TK will grow wider and will introduce new destinations and eventually will be able to assess whether the destination makes sense as part of a global play-ground or not. This may happen 3 to 4 years from today. Of course act of God or civil unrest etc. type of reasons are always there just like it is the case for DAM at present.

On a related topic, if TK was flying to MIA today I don't think they would cancel it as before. The way TK operates today is changed since then and any seizable North American destination will work for TK.


User currently offlineleftyboarder From Turkey, joined Apr 2008, 693 posts, RR: 1
Reply 22, posted (1 year 8 months 2 weeks 4 days 20 hours ago) and read 6184 times:

Quoting ankaraflyjet (Reply 22):
On a related topic, if TK was flying to MIA today I don't think they would cancel it as before. The way TK operates today is changed since then and any seizable North American destination will work for TK.


Right on. If only they had the planes in their fleet now... Hence the 40-strong order for 333s and 77Ws and leases for this summer.


User currently offlineIndianicWorld From Australia, joined Jun 2001, 2988 posts, RR: 0
Reply 23, posted (1 year 8 months 2 weeks 4 days 19 hours ago) and read 6008 times:

Turkey currently being in quite a strong economic position, along with such a good geographic location, sure does give TK a chance to exploit many opportunities others would struggle with.

The new airport will give it a huge opportunity to grow that position every stronger.

Routes may well come and go over time, but they will find new ones to take on.


User currently offlineleftyboarder From Turkey, joined Apr 2008, 693 posts, RR: 1
Reply 24, posted (1 year 8 months 2 weeks 4 days 18 hours ago) and read 5882 times:

BTW, MIA, KUL and SXB are the only stations canceled and not restarted as of yet, with KUL probably coming back online this year.

Quoting Tupolev160 (Reply 2):
Yes, TK's coverage within Turkey is very low* and low-cost airlines do dominate the market. However i just wonder how TK manages to make a profit with 14 weekly to SKP(!) and 18 weekly to a place like SJJ - that were served by daily or even less only a year ago, just amazing.
Anyway, it seems Pegasus became a fierce competitor for TK in Eastern Europe/Middle-East region(s).

*compared with the share of low-cost airlines.

If for example KL can operate 3 daily to LBA or 3 daily to BGO, smallish cities in other countries, it shouldn't be a surprise that TK flies 2 daily to SJJ or SKP.


25 ceo@afg : Where is it likely TK will add A380 or B748i flights if and when they order those aircraft? Not entirely sure what is TKs most heavy duty routes.
26 Post contains images leftyboarder : BKK, JFK, LAX, PEK, PVG come to mind. Not to say you won't see it doing the occasional run to LHR or FRA if they order it
27 Post contains images gokmengs : Heck they could even do BJV and AYT in the summer time
28 bahadir : I think MIA is still a low priority compared to other US destinations. The entire reason why MIA was opened was due to the influx of Turkish people t
29 ytz : Network effects. It works for EK. And it should work quite well for TK. They could lose money on SJJ and BEG and then make up all of it and then some
30 Istanbuler83 : What do you mean exactly with that? There are no TK flights outbound to Asia from Eastern-Turkey. The only real international hub is IST. So, there i
31 sofianec : For many years TK flew a single daily flt IST-SOF and it was always pretty O/D as connections were hampered by the lack of convenient times and in 90%
32 TurkishWings : As per Tupolev160, TK is a Middle -Eastern airline. We gave him all the proof we can but he will not get it. He will not accept it. Most of the time,
33 ytz : I meant that oddly enough, Turks are the people who are best positioned to use DOH, AUH, or DXB, becuase of the backtracking involved in using IST. T
34 777way : Can the Middle Eastern carriers capture Eastern Turkey markets, especially the LCCs?
35 ytz : They should be able to get some. That said, it would really only help for South Asia and South-East Asia bound travel. And then only for the eastern
36 ASA : How much traffic is generated in Eastern Turkey? Does anyone have the numbers? IST is still the overwhelmingly dominant market in Turkey ... and the
37 viasa : 19JAN2013: Istanbul (IST) - Sebha (SEB) route has been suspended until March 10, 2013. Sebha (SEB) - Istanbul (IST) route has been suspended until Mar
38 TurkishWings : Great list though most of the mentioned routes are seasonal routes... Mostly summer only leisure routes...
40 OA260 : Indeed and there is quite an increase in traffic DUB-IST-LOS also . They have taken traffic from AF/KL and LH. Even though its a longer trip. TK have
41 Tupolev160 : Such aircraft can't operate from IST due to airport/runway restrictions. Even the 777 has weight restrictions ex-IST, especially in summer.
42 leftyboarder : And how is that? Airbus lists take-off run at MTOW as 2750m for A380, which is shorter that that of 77W (makes sense as it has 4 engines). IST has 32
43 Tupolev160 : Hi leftyboarder, nice to hear from you. So are you talking about the left runway at IST, as your name suggests? Cause the longest runways at IST are
44 leftyboarder : 3000 indeed, my typo. And your condesending tone is omnipresent. Any A380 order won't be arriving in the next few years anyway so IST being unable to
45 Post contains images Tupolev160 : Finally, on one thing we totally agree
46 ytz : That's cute. I remember when people said that about EK ordering a bunch of A380s. The runway and terminal space limitations should be resolved in abo
47 Post contains links Tupolev160 : Safer for who, for Canadians? I remember you taking a few slaps from the UAE indeed. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canada...ace_to_Canadian_ministers.
48 Post contains links ytz : Before I was a Canadian citizen, I was an Indian citizen. And one who resided and spent half my childhood in Dubai. I assure you, I am quite knowledg
49 SCQ83 : I doubt this is an issue for 99.99% of passengers transiting with EK or TK. Anyway, Turkey is far from being a fully functioning democracy either. My
50 stylo777 : gate security is long gone; those are carried out now centrally (like in any other major hub).
51 Post contains links OA260 : Cant really disagree there as I hear the same from people still based out there. Well a lot more people are being made aware of the dangers of transi
52 ytz : I will flat out guess that your skin is lighter than mine. Turkey may not be a fully functioning democracy, but it is a democracy. It also has a rela
53 Yakamoz : So when you add Aleppo and Damascus to the list due to conflict, then there are two more.
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