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WFAA: AA-US Merger Announced Next Week (sources)  
User currently offlineblueflyer From United States of America, joined Jan 2006, 4001 posts, RR: 2
Posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 6 days 21 hours ago) and read 32305 times:
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WFAA (ABC Dallas) reports a merger is to be announced next week, possibly Monday, with headquarters in Ft Worth but leadership from US Airways.

http://www.wfaa.com/news/business/Am...-expected-next-week-190101971.html

[Edited 2013-02-06 15:49:45]


I've got $h*t to do
244 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineAllegiantFlyer From United States of America, joined Mar 2012, 177 posts, RR: 0
Reply 1, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 6 days 21 hours ago) and read 32246 times:

After looking at this article and watching the video it seemed quite biased in my opinion like a merger is what they want instead of whats really going to happen

User currently offlinephxa340 From United States of America, joined Mar 2012, 891 posts, RR: 1
Reply 2, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 6 days 21 hours ago) and read 32227 times:

Yea suggest the title is changed to Rumor as this is not fact ...

User currently offlineblueflyer From United States of America, joined Jan 2006, 4001 posts, RR: 2
Reply 3, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 6 days 21 hours ago) and read 32060 times:
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Quoting phxa340 (Reply 3):

There. Happy I hope.

Locally, WFAA is very well informed when it comes to AA, so I'd take it to the bank...



I've got $h*t to do
User currently offlinecommavia From United States of America, joined Apr 2005, 11630 posts, RR: 61
Reply 4, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 6 days 21 hours ago) and read 32023 times:

It's WFAA, in addition to Dallas Morning News, in addition to the Star-Telegram, in addition to WSJ. They're all probably talking to the same "source" who is leaking the same information. Nonetheless, it appears a deal is close.

Glad this soap opera is likely to be coming to an end, one way or another, soon ...


User currently offlineDTW2HYD From United States of America, joined Jan 2013, 1962 posts, RR: 0
Reply 5, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 6 days 21 hours ago) and read 31916 times:

It true this is a win for Texas politicians.

User currently offlineQANTASvJet From United Kingdom, joined Sep 2012, 78 posts, RR: 0
Reply 6, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 6 days 21 hours ago) and read 31748 times:

Let's just hope this means the end to that terrible tail. (I don't need to explain, you know what I mean...)

User currently offlineFL787 From United States of America, joined Aug 2007, 1541 posts, RR: 12
Reply 7, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 6 days 20 hours ago) and read 31658 times:

This article didn't mention it, but in the WSJ article it says that the AA/US merger will create the world's largest airline. By what measure are they basing this off of? Assuming RPM/Ks or ASM/Ks are used which is commonplace, UA is still bigger.

For full year 2012

RPMs
UA: 205,484,567
AA/US: 136,560,266+64,880,446= 201,440,712
DL: 192,955,777

ASMs
UA: 248,860,009
AA/US: 166,129,600+77,510,211= 243,639,811
DL: 230,399,620


Obviously being the largest isn't worth anything and there are other ways of measuring it, but should WSJ really be claiming that AA/US will be the largest airline? Seems like they need some fact-checkers to me.



717,72S,732/3/4/5/G/8/9,744,752/3,763/4,772/3,D9S/5,M8/90,D10,319/20/21,332/3,388,CR2/7/9,EM2,ER4,E70/75/90,SF3,AR8
User currently offlineSTT757 From United States of America, joined Mar 2000, 16866 posts, RR: 51
Reply 8, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 6 days 20 hours ago) and read 31641 times:

Quoting QANTASvJet (Reply 7):
Let's just hope this means the end to that terrible tail. (I don't need to explain, you know what I mean...)

From the OP's article:

Quote:
American last month debuted a new logo and paint scheme for its aircraft. At the time, Horton said he did not expect to have to change the the livery again.



Eastern Air lines flt # 701, EWR-MCO Boeing 757
User currently offlineSTT757 From United States of America, joined Mar 2000, 16866 posts, RR: 51
Reply 9, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 6 days 20 hours ago) and read 31607 times:

I hope they hurry up and announce it already so we can kick off the next phase of speculating new aircraft orders, hub changes, livery etc... That discussion should last a while and will be a nice change from "787 battery problem".


Eastern Air lines flt # 701, EWR-MCO Boeing 757
User currently offlineairliner371 From United States of America, joined Aug 2012, 1394 posts, RR: 2
Reply 10, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 6 days 20 hours ago) and read 31604 times:

Quoting FL787 (Reply 8):
By what measure are they basing this off of?

AA/US is largest if you go buy enplaned passengers.



You will either love or hate the airline industry. If you love it, it will get in your blood and it will never leave.
User currently offlineUA787DEN From United States of America, joined Dec 2012, 420 posts, RR: 0
Reply 11, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 6 days 20 hours ago) and read 31550 times:

Quoting airliner371 (Reply 11):
AA/US is largest if you go buy enplaned passengers.

Or fleet size.


User currently offlineDolphinAir747 From United States of America, joined Jun 2012, 305 posts, RR: 0
Reply 12, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 6 days 20 hours ago) and read 31389 times:

Quoting STT757 (Reply 10):
That discussion should last a while and will be a nice change from "787 battery problem".

90% of posts on this site relate to one of these two topics.


User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 30987 posts, RR: 86
Reply 13, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 6 days 20 hours ago) and read 31331 times:
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Quoting QANTASvJet (Reply 7):
Let's just hope this means the end to that terrible tail.

If the company keeps the name American - which I would expect is the more likely route - then the US planes would all be repainted /delivered in the new AA colors.


User currently offlineSTT757 From United States of America, joined Mar 2000, 16866 posts, RR: 51
Reply 14, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 6 days 20 hours ago) and read 31299 times:

Quoting DolphinAir747 (Reply 13):
90% of posts on this site relate to one of these two topics.

I want to discuss moving US A330s onto AA routes from MIA and JFK etc.., but I guess that should wait for the formal announcemt.



Eastern Air lines flt # 701, EWR-MCO Boeing 757
User currently offlineDolphinAir747 From United States of America, joined Jun 2012, 305 posts, RR: 0
Reply 15, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 6 days 20 hours ago) and read 31234 times:

Quoting Stitch (Reply 14):
If the company keeps the name American - which I would expect is the more likely route - then the US planes would all be repainted /delivered in the new AA colors.

Exactly. It's been confirmed for a looooooong time that AA will be the surviving name. Why is this constantly debated?   


User currently offlineetops1 From United States of America, joined Nov 2005, 1090 posts, RR: 1
Reply 16, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 6 days 20 hours ago) and read 31109 times:

I am Curious to see what kind of agreement US has made with Star Alliance for an exit . Do they just automatically switch to Oneworld once an announcement is reached or do they need time to do that ?

User currently offlineaacun From Mexico, joined Jan 2004, 534 posts, RR: 1
Reply 17, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 6 days 20 hours ago) and read 31078 times:
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It will be tuesday when they announce it I was told

User currently offlineplateman From United States of America, joined May 2007, 923 posts, RR: 0
Reply 18, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 6 days 20 hours ago) and read 31056 times:

This board (Airliners) has become the AA board lately and its annoying as heck .. one thread, keep it simple. Every person and media outlet seems to have an exclusive story with sources. Most members want to guess what their routes will look like, what hub they will have ... mods keep it on one post please!


"Explore. Dream. Discover." -Mark Twain
User currently offlineFL787 From United States of America, joined Aug 2007, 1541 posts, RR: 12
Reply 19, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 6 days 20 hours ago) and read 31019 times:

Quoting airliner371 (Reply 11):
AA/US is largest if you go buy enplaned passengers.
Quoting UA787DEN (Reply 12):
Or fleet size.

Thanks, I'm aware of these measurements. My point is that most were calling UA/CO the world's largest airline back in 2010 even though DL carried more passengers and had a larger fleet so I think it's safe to assume most publications/people use ASMs/RPMs, in which case UA would still be larger. If WSJ was actually using enplaned passengers then there's no issue, I'm just not sure they were.



717,72S,732/3/4/5/G/8/9,744,752/3,763/4,772/3,D9S/5,M8/90,D10,319/20/21,332/3,388,CR2/7/9,EM2,ER4,E70/75/90,SF3,AR8
User currently offlineDolphinAir747 From United States of America, joined Jun 2012, 305 posts, RR: 0
Reply 20, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 6 days 20 hours ago) and read 30979 times:

Quoting etops1 (Reply 17):
I am Curious to see what kind of agreement US has made with Star Alliance for an exit . Do they just automatically switch to Oneworld once an announcement is reached or do they need time to do that ?

How quickly did CO exit SkyTeam a few years back?


User currently offlineCIDFlyer From United States of America, joined Apr 2005, 2301 posts, RR: 3
Reply 21, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 6 days 20 hours ago) and read 30755 times:

I would imagine they will also be announcing US Airways jumping from Star to One World also? How soon can they join?

User currently offlinemesaflyguy From United States of America, joined Dec 2012, 3127 posts, RR: 5
Reply 22, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 6 days 20 hours ago) and read 30667 times:
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All I have to say is that I sincerely hope CLT and PHL better stay intact. Otherwise we on the east coast are screwed. Between LGA and JFK slots that they'd need, service would be effected, no?

[Edited 2013-02-06 17:04:06]


\________(---)________/ :) World's most beautiful aircraft: 757-200, MD-88/90, E-190, A321
User currently offlineCIDFlyer From United States of America, joined Apr 2005, 2301 posts, RR: 3
Reply 23, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 6 days 19 hours ago) and read 30653 times:

Quoting mesaflyguy (Reply 23):
All I have to say is that CLT and PHL better stay intact. Otherwise we on the east coast are screwed. Between LGA and JFK slots that they'd need, service would be effected, no?

CLT and PHL will retain major roles from everything that is speculated and has been said. PHX is the one hub that has been debatable. But with AA in CLT and PHL it will provide good competition to DL and UA. AA will finally be a major force along the east coast when you toss DCA in there as well.


User currently offlineetops1 From United States of America, joined Nov 2005, 1090 posts, RR: 1
Reply 24, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 6 days 19 hours ago) and read 31233 times:

Quoting DolphinAir747 (Reply 21):

If I remember correctly , I think it was 1year ? I could be wrong .


User currently offlinemah4546 From Sweden, joined Jan 2001, 32782 posts, RR: 72
Reply 25, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 6 days 19 hours ago) and read 32236 times:

As long as US doesn't mess with AAdvantage and doesn't bring it's customer-is-always last customer service mantra, I'm all for it.

Quoting mesaflyguy (Reply 23):
All I have to say is that CLT and PHL better stay intact. Otherwise we on the east coast are screwed.

They'll still be hubs. They won't stay intact. The fact is that all three US hubs will be hurt by the merger. I could see PHL reduced by maybe one-third at the least; CLT cut by 25%; and PHX, probably cut in half. MIA, JFK, LAX and DFW will be the winners in this merger.

Quoting mesaflyguy (Reply 23):
Between LGA and JFK slots that they'd need, service would be effected, no?

Do you mean will they need to give up slots? Highly unlikely. US only adds a handful of slots to the JFK portfolio; while a combined US-AA at LGA is still smaller - but nonetheless very competitive - than the DOT-sanctioned DL slot portfolio.

DCA slots, for sure, they will have to give some up.

[Edited 2013-02-06 17:07:23]


a.
User currently offlineDolphinAir747 From United States of America, joined Jun 2012, 305 posts, RR: 0
Reply 26, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 6 days 19 hours ago) and read 32581 times:

Quoting CIDFlyer (Reply 22):
I would imagine they will also be announcing US Airways jumping from Star to One World also? How soon can they join?

If this happens, US wouldn't join; US would be absorbed into AA which is already part of 1W.


User currently onlinekcrwflyer From United States of America, joined May 2004, 3817 posts, RR: 7
Reply 27, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 6 days 19 hours ago) and read 32628 times:

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 26):
They'll still be hubs. They won't stay intact. The fact is that all three US hubs will be hurt by the merger. I could see PHL reduced by maybe one-third at the least; CLT cut by 25%; and PHX, probably cut in half. MIA, JFK, LAX and DFW will be the winners in this merger.

Explain please. In as much detail as you care to go into.


User currently onlineadamh8297 From United States of America, joined Dec 2012, 902 posts, RR: 0
Reply 28, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 6 days 19 hours ago) and read 32555 times:

I'm guessing US/VS codeshare would go away pretty quickly?

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 26):

As long as US doesn't mess with AAdvantage and doesn't bring it's customer-is-always last customer service mantra, I'm all for it.

I'm sure DL is praying for US to do that. In Boston, this will determine how many Dividend Miles and a fair amount of Mileage Plus members jump aboard the new AA.

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 26):
and PHX, probably cut in half. MIA, JFK, LAX and DFW will be the winners in this merger.

WN will be sitting pretty in the Valley of the Sun.


User currently offlinemesaflyguy From United States of America, joined Dec 2012, 3127 posts, RR: 5
Reply 29, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 6 days 19 hours ago) and read 32449 times:
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Quoting mah4546 (Reply 26):

The way I (and many on here) have seemed to think aobut it, is that they would try to consolidate the PHL and NYC ops to the greatest extent possible, but that would require more slots at JFK and possibly LGA.



\________(---)________/ :) World's most beautiful aircraft: 757-200, MD-88/90, E-190, A321
User currently offlineBN747 From United States of America, joined Mar 2002, 5613 posts, RR: 51
Reply 30, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 6 days 19 hours ago) and read 32561 times:

Quoting etops1 (Reply 28):
They'll still be hubs. They won't stay intact. The fact is that all three US hubs will be hurt by the merger. I could see PHL reduced by maybe one-third at the least; CLT cut by 25%; and PHX, probably cut in half. MIA, JFK, LAX and DFW will be the winners in this merger.

You're being generous...

CLT will go the way of STL after TWA disappeared.

With DFW being the massive base it is.. I see PHX taking a huge hit.

And PHL with the AA fortresses at ORD and JFK... growth is certainly not in the cards.

..and any US honchos who happen to troll A.net, please vote to lose that (new) ugly AA tail. JAL bit the bullet and went back on a mistake and brought back the Crane, pls bring back the eagle and the AA or whip up anything but that Bank of America ripoff. But given the history of US Airways' logos...it's a no win situation.

I've seen all carrier mergers since 1978 and haven't liked a single one.. this is no exception.


BN747



"Home of the Brave, made by the Slaves..Land of the Free, if you look like me.." T. Jefferson
User currently offlineBeardown91737 From United States of America, joined Jun 2011, 542 posts, RR: 0
Reply 31, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 6 days 19 hours ago) and read 32475 times:

Quoting DolphinAir747 (Reply 27):
US would be absorbed into AA which is already part of 1W.

Most likely scenario is that AA is being acquired by LCC. LCC will combine US and AA under the name American Airlines. They would use the current AA membership in OW.

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 26):
MIA, JFK, LAX and DFW will be the winners in this merger.

LCC would naturally be very cautious in leaving what made money at US and running blindly into what didn't make money for AMR. Moving

AA may have the lead in passengers at LAX, but they aren't that big, maybe 160 flights counting regional. I don't see LCC management adding a lot to LAX when they could have tried a LAX focus city.

Quoting STT757 (Reply 15):
I want to discuss moving US A330s onto AA routes from MIA and JFK etc.., but I guess that should wait for the formal announcemt.

Why wait? We have been talking about hubs for 9-10 months, why not where the planes will go when LCC takes over operation of AA?

Quoting DolphinAir747 (Reply 16):
Quoting Stitch (Reply 14):
If the company keeps the name American - which I would expect is the more likely route - then the US planes would all be repainted /delivered in the new AA colors.

Exactly. It's been confirmed for a looooooong time that AA will be the surviving name. Why is this constantly debated?   

Correct that LCC would use the name American, not "keep" it since they don't own that name now. Beyond that, and the Ft Worth HQ there is no assurance that any current AA anything would be immune, even the recent rebranding of AA. Maybe that will be the first thing cut.



135 hrs PIC (mostly PA-28) - not current. Landings at MDW, PIA, JAN.
User currently offlinesouthwest737500 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 32, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 6 days 19 hours ago) and read 32367 times:

How quick until BA jumps into CLT.

Or is that pushing it  

Well CLT spotters sadly we will probably see the A346 go hopefully we can keep LH


User currently offlineCubsrule From United States of America, joined May 2004, 23014 posts, RR: 20
Reply 33, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 6 days 19 hours ago) and read 32268 times:

Quoting BN747 (Reply 32):
CLT will go the way of STL after TWA disappeared.

Where is all that traffic going to go? In to the ether? CLT will doubtless get smaller, but STL is down something like 90 percent from its peak.



I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
User currently offlineusairways85 From United States of America, joined Nov 2001, 3404 posts, RR: 7
Reply 34, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 6 days 19 hours ago) and read 32199 times:

Quoting BN747 (Reply 32):
And PHL with the AA fortresses at ORD and JFK

Uh, I'd hardly call JFK and ORD AA fortresses. DFW and MIA yes but certainly not the first two


User currently offlinemah4546 From Sweden, joined Jan 2001, 32782 posts, RR: 72
Reply 35, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 6 days 19 hours ago) and read 32353 times:

Quoting kcrwflyer (Reply 29):
Quoting mah4546 (Reply 26):
They'll still be hubs. They won't stay intact. The fact is that all three US hubs will be hurt by the merger. I could see PHL reduced by maybe one-third at the least; CLT cut by 25%; and PHX, probably cut in half. MIA, JFK, LAX and DFW will be the winners in this merger.


Explain please. In as much detail as you care to go into.

Traffic flows. It's simple.

US Airways has to rely on Charlotte today to do an insane amount of things, such as: ORDMIA; MIAFCO; SJUBOS; ORFSAN; RICLAX; SLCBHM. Those things can be handled in any combination by ORD, DFW or MIA, and often better. You don't need that capacity overlap, and CLT will simply see it's route network remain largely intact, but less need for capacity as traffic flows spread out through other hubs.

You don't need, say, 8 daily CLTILM flights anymore, when you can have 4 daily CLTILM, 1 daily to DFW, 2 daily to ORD, and 1 daily to MIA and better serve the market.

PHX is just a poor yielding market where the merged airline's cost can't compete. That simple. It doesn't serve an important purpose, either.

PHL and NYC will be consolidated to the extent possible - LGA/NYC focusing on O&D and PHL focusing on acting as a Northeast hub.

Quoting etops1 (Reply 28):
That's not a fact. That's your baseless and ridiculous opinion . Why merge then ?

Airlines merge to consolidate operations and eliminate competition. How are MEM, CVG, LAS and PIT holding up after mergers? Oh, yeah. That's right. Even MSP took a big hit after the merger; and that's the type of hit CLT will take - still large and relevant, but nonetheless a shrunken hub.

[Edited 2013-02-06 18:00:07]


a.
User currently offlinejporterfi From United States of America, joined Feb 2012, 445 posts, RR: 0
Reply 36, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 6 days 19 hours ago) and read 32071 times:

Quoting mesaflyguy (Reply 31):
The way I (and many on here) have seemed to think aobut it, is that they would try to consolidate the PHL and NYC ops to the greatest extent possible, but that would require more slots at JFK and possibly LGA.

Would PHL still be classified as a hub assuming this happens? Also, if the ops are consolidated, could we see LGA and JFK used as connecting points in the AA network (I know they already are now, but I'm referring to an increase in the number of connection there relative to PHL)? I think they would still need to keep PHL as a hub, because I highly doubt they'll get enough slots to move all connecting traffic to LGA/JFK. Not to mention the perimeter rule at LGA would be a problem if they decided to move many flights from PHL to LGA.

Quoting adamh8297 (Reply 30):
WN will be sitting pretty in the Valley of the Sun.

  

Quoting etops1 (Reply 28):
PHX, probably cut in half

AA doesn't have THAT big of an operation at LAX, do they? A 50% cut seems drastic to me. I would think they would still want a pretty big operation at PHX to compete with AS and UA at LAX and DL at SLC.


User currently offlinemah4546 From Sweden, joined Jan 2001, 32782 posts, RR: 72
Reply 37, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 6 days 19 hours ago) and read 32064 times:

Quoting jporterfi (Reply 38):
Quoting etops1 (Reply 28):
PHX, probably cut in half

AA doesn't have THAT big of an operation at LAX, do they? A 50% cut seems drastic to me. I would think they would still want a pretty big operation at PHX to compete with AS and UA at LAX and DL at SLC.

It's around 160 flights, but even then, that capacity doesn't need to move to LAX, and I doubt it ever will. It's simply largely capacity that will likely go away. DFW is the real threat to PHX. It handles most of the connection flows that PHX currently needs to handle for US, except better. Intra-West is a lost cause against AS and WN. LAX won't grow at the expense of PHX, it will simply grow as AA puts more emphasis on growing it organically, continuing what AA started in spring 2011.

This merger also will suck major for consumers, because US is pretty much the most important factor in keeping airfares largely lower in this country by effectively operating on LLC cost principles over a network carrier route network.

[Edited 2013-02-06 18:03:01]

[Edited 2013-02-06 18:04:33]


a.
User currently offlinetommy767 From United States of America, joined Aug 2003, 6584 posts, RR: 8
Reply 38, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 6 days 18 hours ago) and read 31924 times:

Was hoping for Doug to take a golden parachute and Horton to stay. Dougy is Jeffy in a different suit. Perhaps that rumor will be not true.

Overall, AA/US will be powerful. DFW, MIA, CLT, DCA, and PHL is enough of a reason to believe so. Labor issues will be complicated especially with US/HP not even fully integrated since the merger in 2005. I do feel that AA will go leaps and bound to protect their elite base, something that UA is currently failing at right now.

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 39):

It's around 160 flights, but even then, that capacity doesn't need to move to LAX, and I doubt it ever will. It's simply largely capacity that will likely go away. DFW is the real threat to PHX. It handles most of the connection flows that PHX currently needs to handle for US, except better. Intra-West is a lost cause against AS and WN.

Yeah all in all, AA isn't THAT big at LAX. Hard to believe they would cut PHX down by that much when AA simply just doesn't even have the proper gate space for a major "cornerstone" hub at LAX. Also keeping in mind that DL and UA hold their own very well out of LAX, making AA not top dog in the market.



"Folks that's the news and I'm outta here!" -- Dennis Miller
User currently offlineDolphinAir747 From United States of America, joined Jun 2012, 305 posts, RR: 0
Reply 39, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 6 days 18 hours ago) and read 31813 times:

Quoting tommy767 (Reply 41):
Yeah all in all, AA isn't THAT big at LAX. Hard to believe they would cut PHX down by that much when AA simply just doesn't even have the proper gate space for a major "cornerstone" hub at LAX. Also keeping in mind that DL and UA hold their own very well out of LAX, making AA not top dog in the market.

Most of the traffic flows will be handled via DFW, while LAX will focus more on O&D demand (for which it is the largest airport in the world). AA may keep a few high-yielding point-to-point routes, but otherwise, AA will not keep a major hub in between DFW and LAX, especially one with terrible yields and relatively little international (especially business) traffic.

End of story.   


User currently offlinerwy04lga From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 3176 posts, RR: 8
Reply 40, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 6 days 18 hours ago) and read 31723 times:

Quoting FL787 (Reply 8):
Obviously being the largest isn't worth anything

It's only worth anything if Delta is the world's largest.
 

What will happen to AA/US at LGA? Will US migrate to Terminal B and leave Terminal C all to Delta? Who currently at Terminal B could switch places with US at Terminal C? There's not enough room at Terminal C for a combined AA/US operation.



Just accept that some days, you're the pigeon, and other days the statue
User currently offlineCubsrule From United States of America, joined May 2004, 23014 posts, RR: 20
Reply 41, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 6 days 18 hours ago) and read 31498 times:

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 37):
such as: ORDMIA; MIAFCO; SJUBOS; ORFSAN; RICLAX; SLCBHM. Those things can be
handled in any combination by ORD, DFW or MIA, and often better.

Oddly, though perhaps tellingly, a number of those (MIAFCO, SJUBOS, ORFSAN and RICLAX) are probably still best handled by CLT in the combined network.



I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
User currently offlinepanam330 From United States of America, joined Mar 2004, 2679 posts, RR: 9
Reply 42, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 6 days 18 hours ago) and read 31512 times:

Quoting BN747 (Reply 32):
CLT will go the way of STL after TWA disappeared.

Uh, no. CLT will certainly shrink, but nowhere near that much. If they cut too much, the hub loses its economy of scale and will be unprofitable, like every other dismantled hub.

Quoting BN747 (Reply 32):
And PHL with the AA fortresses at ORD and JFK... growth is certainly not in the cards.

Fortresses? They wish. ORD is a shell of its former self (which hopefully will be fixed with the new cost structure and E75s, with or without the merger), and JFK is what, 100 flights a day to comparatively few destinations.

Quoting tommy767 (Reply 41):
Was hoping for Doug to take a golden parachute and Horton to stay. Dougy is Jeffy in a different suit. Perhaps that rumor will be not true.

Doug's had a bumpy road for sure, but he's done a pretty good job at US. He just had to learn the hard way that 'the Tempe way' didn't work on the east coast very well.

I welcome this merger, as long as it doesn't mess with service to the places that US' cost structure makes possible - like DAB. I'd trade a CLT frequency for a MIA one, though!


User currently offlineXT6Wagon From United States of America, joined Feb 2007, 3409 posts, RR: 4
Reply 43, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 6 days 18 hours ago) and read 31450 times:

So guys, Time to start a new thread about what WN, UA, and DL will bid on in the asset auction X years from now? Also a thread on what number X is?

Lets merge two airlines with massive labor problems still suffering from their last mergers. IT MAKES SO MUCH SENSE.

sigh.


User currently offlinejfklganyc From United States of America, joined Jan 2004, 3477 posts, RR: 5
Reply 44, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 6 days 18 hours ago) and read 31415 times:

Quoting rwy04lga (Reply 43):
What will happen to AA/US at LGA? Will US migrate to Terminal B and leave Terminal C all to Delta? Who currently at Terminal B could switch places with US at Terminal C? There's not enough room at Terminal C for a combined AA/US operation.

I can see B6 taking US gates at Terminal C.

UA, US, and AA will come to an agreement at the CTB.

Some flights need to move to the Terminal C/D complex...just to much at the CTB now...it is bursting at the seams


User currently offlineairliner371 From United States of America, joined Aug 2012, 1394 posts, RR: 2
Reply 45, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 6 days 18 hours ago) and read 31188 times:

Quoting jfklganyc (Reply 47):
I can see B6 taking US gates at Terminal C.

6 gates for 18 flights.... no way. If they want one airline to move I could see UA squeezing otherwise I could see 3 AC and 3 B6 or 4 WN, 1 NK and 1 F9, or really any combination.



You will either love or hate the airline industry. If you love it, it will get in your blood and it will never leave.
User currently offlinebobloblaw From United States of America, joined Jan 2012, 1725 posts, RR: 1
Reply 46, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 6 days 18 hours ago) and read 31073 times:

Quoting BN747 (Reply 32):
You're being generous...

CLT will go the way of STL after TWA disappeared.

No it wont. I get so tired of this stupid argument. STL is only 250 miles from ORD and 500 miles from DFW. CLT would be over 600 miles from the nearest large AA hub.

Quoting DolphinAir747 (Reply 40):
You don't need, say, 8 daily CLTILM flights anymore, when you can have 4 daily CLTILM, 1 daily to DFW, 2 daily to ORD, and 1 daily to MIA and better serve the market.

That is NOT in fact how mergers work. Dont you notice UA cutting flights to IAH from cities closer to ORD??? In fact cities in the SE that have flights to ORD and DFW will likely LOSE their service or see it reduced in favor of CLT. You DONT overfly your own hubs if you can help it. It is expensive and dilutes yields.


User currently offlinenutsaboutplanes From United States of America, joined Jul 2010, 496 posts, RR: 8
Reply 47, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 6 days 18 hours ago) and read 30897 times:

I know that many like myself are just anxious to get the announcement completed so that we can move on to the initial hurdles that come along with a merger. I would say that general consensus is "cautious optimism" in our camp.


American Airlines, US Airways, Alaska Airlines, Northwest Airlines, America West Airlines, USAFR
User currently offlinePHX787 From Japan, joined Mar 2012, 7560 posts, RR: 18
Reply 48, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 6 days 18 hours ago) and read 30956 times:

Quoting AllegiantFlyer (Reply 2):
After looking at this article and watching the video it seemed quite biased in my opinion like a merger is what they want instead of whats really going to happen

Agreed, this doesn't seem quite legit. Sure there's a "source" now but I'll believe it when that weird AA logo is gracing T4 over here.

Quoting DolphinAir747 (Reply 40):
Bingo. Now, enter the CLT/PHX fanboys, and let the trollfest begin!

Let me start by saying any airline dumping PHX is going to lose out big. PHX is a large city and is slated to grow exponentially.....not to mention that there are 4 or 5 cities out here with average incomes well over 80,000$..... lots of people wanna fly to and from PHX and US is doing a great job with the 60-70% stronghold they have here now.

Hell, if US drops PHX as a hub post merger, then, with the flow of pax I see, I can smell a second intercontinental flight out of PHX, as well as serious expansion from AM, as well as maybe F9, DL, and UA expanding significantly. Not to mention a second HA flight.

There's such a demand here for flights. There's no way the hub is going away.



次は、渋谷、渋谷。出口は、右側です。電車とホームの間は広く開いておりますので、足元に注意下さい。
User currently offlineAeroWesty From United States of America, joined Oct 2004, 20640 posts, RR: 62
Reply 49, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 6 days 18 hours ago) and read 30923 times:

Once this merger takes place, AA will be the surviving carrier combined from:

Air Cal
Allegheny
America West
Empire
Lake Central
Mohawk
Ozark
Piedmont
PSA
Reno Air
Trans Caribbean
TWA
US Airways

Did I miss any?



International Homo of Mystery
User currently offlinemah4546 From Sweden, joined Jan 2001, 32782 posts, RR: 72
Reply 50, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 6 days 18 hours ago) and read 30586 times:

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 49):
That is NOT in fact how mergers work. Dont you notice UA cutting flights to IAH from cities closer to ORD??? In fact cities in the SE that have flights to ORD and DFW will likely LOSE their service or see it reduced in favor of CLT. You DONT overfly your own hubs if you can help it. It is expensive and dilutes yields.

It's exactly how mergers work. Network optimization, and it will hurt CLT a bit, just like it hurt MSP.



a.
User currently offlinenutsaboutplanes From United States of America, joined Jul 2010, 496 posts, RR: 8
Reply 51, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 6 days 17 hours ago) and read 30559 times:

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 51):
Sure there's a "source" now but I'll believe it when that weird AA logo is gracing T4 over here.



Stand by to be made a believer.

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 51):
There's such a demand here for flights. There's no way the hub is going away.



There is demand here for CONNECTIONS. The vast majority of the US operation in PHX is conx pax moving East-West ......the local market is actually rather poor.

Quoting AeroWesty (Reply 52):

Air Cal
Allegheny
America West
Empire
Lake Central
Mohawk
Ozark
Piedmont
PSA
Reno Air
Trans Caribbean
TWA
US Airways

Did I miss any?



I think you get em all!



American Airlines, US Airways, Alaska Airlines, Northwest Airlines, America West Airlines, USAFR
User currently offlineAA767400 From United States of America, joined Jan 2001, 2363 posts, RR: 26
Reply 52, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 6 days 17 hours ago) and read 29931 times:

Quoting XT6Wagon (Reply 46):
Lets merge two airlines with massive labor problems still suffering from their last mergers. IT MAKES SO MUCH SENSE.

I'd argue thats been accomplished already. All labor issues on AA's side have been resolved. US/HP FAs have reached an agreement, and the pilots are in a resolution. They want in all in place before merging.

The only merger that made sense, and was pretty uneventful was a combined DL/NW. UA/CO have yet to fully get their act together. Their SHARES issues, and labor contracts have yet to be ironed out. Not to mention the gutting of Mileage Plus. WN/FL is without issues either. With their rising cost, and logistics hiccups, their not immune either.

No merger is perfect, so lets not make this merger the worst combination to exist.



"The low fares airline."
User currently offlinePHX787 From Japan, joined Mar 2012, 7560 posts, RR: 18
Reply 53, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 6 days 17 hours ago) and read 29680 times:

Quoting nutsaboutplanes (Reply 54):
There is demand here for CONNECTIONS. The vast majority of the US operation in PHX is conx pax moving East-West ......the local market is actually rather poor.

How so? Show me some numbers. People always say "poor" but this airport is always so crowded with people flying in and out for various reasons that pertain to the state of Arizona.



次は、渋谷、渋谷。出口は、右側です。電車とホームの間は広く開いておりますので、足元に注意下さい。
User currently offlinereffado From Brazil, joined Feb 2012, 226 posts, RR: 0
Reply 54, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 6 days 17 hours ago) and read 29539 times:

Hoping to see a settlement soon. I have a small doubt though - won't the courts, along with say, Star, have an issue with OneWorld now holding the biggest South American AND North American carriers?

User currently offlineridgid727 From United States of America, joined Jul 2008, 1122 posts, RR: 0
Reply 55, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 6 days 17 hours ago) and read 29486 times:

A few years back, they were saying PHX was #11 in the US for O & D traffic.


http://www.airliners.net/aviation-fo...eneral_aviation/read.main/3903424/


User currently offlinecommavia From United States of America, joined Apr 2005, 11630 posts, RR: 61
Reply 56, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 6 days 17 hours ago) and read 29469 times:

Quoting mesaflyguy (Reply 23):
All I have to say is that I sincerely hope CLT and PHL better stay intact. Otherwise we on the east coast are screwed.

I doubt either would stay "intact," as in "no change," but both would definitely still be hubs. The key with all of US' hubs - but in particular CLT and PHX - is that their economics are to a certain extent built upon US' low costs, particularly labor. Once that goes away, which would happen overnight once the AA-US union MOUs kicked in, it would instantly render some portion of the flying at all of those hubs unprofitable.

Some AA hubs (in particular ORD) are in the same boat, but in the opposite direction - they have been struggling for years because the costs were too high, not artificially inflated because the costs were so low.

Nonetheless, CLT and PHL are both exceptional hubs, and hubs that AA could not ever replicate on its own anywhere else. Both have immense value, and would no doubt remain very large and vibrant hubs if a merger occurs.

Quoting CIDFlyer (Reply 24):
PHX is the one hub that has been debatable.

I don't see it as debatable. PHX is going to get cut. Big. I just don't see any way around it. The economic realities are simply inescapable.

Quoting CIDFlyer (Reply 24):
But with AA in CLT and PHL it will provide good competition to DL and UA. AA will finally be a major force along the east coast when you toss DCA in there as well.


Absolutely. A combined "new AA" would be a huge force along the east coast, with hubs well placed from NYC to MIA, with PHL, DCA and CLT in between. AA would be either #1 or #2 in 3 of the 4 major northeast business markets, and an entirely sufficient #3 in NYC (AA with a hub in PHL need not carry as many people through NYC as DL and UA, both of whom rely on it as their primary northeast and Atlantic hub).

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 26):
As long as US doesn't mess with AAdvantage and doesn't bring it's customer-is-always last customer service mantra, I'm all for it.

That has been my position from the day Parker cut the deals with the AA unions. I have no particular problem per se with him taking the helm at a merged AA, along as he doesn't try and turn AA into US.

Quoting Beardown91737 (Reply 33):
LCC would naturally be very cautious in leaving what made money at US

Well too late then.

The thing that has largely been responsible for making money at US has been bankruptcy-era labor contracts that have allowed them to maintain lower fares, and capacity, that would never be sustainable at the costs of their post-bankruptcy and post-merger peers.

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 39):
It's around 160 flights, but even then, that capacity doesn't need to move to LAX, and I doubt it ever will. It's simply largely capacity that will likely go away. DFW is the real threat to PHX. It handles most of the connection flows that PHX currently needs to handle for US, except better. Intra-West is a lost cause against AS and WN. LAX won't grow at the expense of PHX, it will simply grow as AA puts more emphasis on growing it organically, continuing what AA started in spring 2011.

        

Absolutely. So many seem to focus on the inevitable reductions that are in store for PHX if AA and US merger, and the comparison/relationship to LAX - perhaps because of the geographic proximity. But the reality is that the overlap between PHX and other hubs in a combined network is far more pronounced with DFW than with LAX.

I still contend that if a merger takes place, PHX will be in for substantial reductions in flights and capacity, and that most of that capacity will in fact not be backfilled or shifted to another hub, but simply eliminated altogether to account for the higher combined costs of a merged airline. However, of the flights and capacity that would be shifted to other hubs, I think it's clear that DFW stands to gain the most from that. It handles most of the same traffic flows, has plenty of room to grow, and is a market AA just about dominates. Beyond that, LAX may stand to gain a little bit - not much - of incremental growth, probably from maybe 1-2 extra flights to Hawaii and/or some minor additional domestic flying (like PIT). And ORD might actually pick up some of the displaced PHX capacity as well - connections to/from the Pacific Northwest that US now forces over PHX could in many cases be better handled - at least geographically - over ORD.

Quoting rwy04lga (Reply 43):
What will happen to AA/US at LGA? Will US migrate to Terminal B and leave Terminal C all to Delta? Who currently at Terminal B could switch places with US at Terminal C? There's not enough room at Terminal C for a combined AA/US operation.
LGA is one of only two airports in the entire combined system (the other being LAX) where combining gate space would pose a bit of a challenge.

Quoting panam330 (Reply 45):
ORD is a shell of its former self

   A shell that is still one of the largest hubs in the U.S.

Quoting jfklganyc (Reply 47):
Quoting rwy04lga (Reply 43):
What will happen to AA/US at LGA? Will US migrate to Terminal B and leave Terminal C all to Delta? Who currently at Terminal B could switch places with US at Terminal C? There's not enough room at Terminal C for a combined AA/US operation.

I can see B6 taking US gates at Terminal C.

UA, US, and AA will come to an agreement at the CTB.

I think that's probably right. I suspect that if AA and US merge, with regard to the LGA gates they would probably try and strike a "grand bargain" with UA and the PA to consolidate ops in the CTB. If UA was out of C, AA+US could probably fit in C-D.

[Edited 2013-02-06 19:59:37]

User currently offlineRavenTech From United States of America, joined Aug 2012, 54 posts, RR: 0
Reply 57, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 6 days 17 hours ago) and read 29083 times:

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 51):

I think that's a little optimistic, If the merged carrier shut down PHX tomorrow then I see WN taking 1-2 of the north concourses for expansion. Then all other carriers either up gauging or increase frequency to fill the remaining void. Overall in this scenario PHX will be down because of the amount of connecting from but overall I don't think we are massively over-served.

Realistically, I see PHX as either a small Hub or massive Focus city for AA. The routes probably cut will be those that are currently served by AA from another hub and are very marginal currently for US. Then the remaining routes will probably those routes that currently are working well for PHX now and then right size them for O+D and any connecting where it would be of questionable benefit to try and reroute through other hubs.


User currently offlineDrmlnr1 From United States of America, joined Jun 2011, 86 posts, RR: 0
Reply 58, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 6 days 17 hours ago) and read 29125 times:

What will happen to the A350's US has on order?? I just hope that if this is indeed true, the combined carrier can make money. DCA will now have a larger op for AA. Will AA keep the DCA-SAN route????


Flying is relaxing!
User currently offlineAllegiantFlyer From United States of America, joined Mar 2012, 177 posts, RR: 0
Reply 59, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 6 days 17 hours ago) and read 29042 times:

Quoting FL787 (Reply 8):
Quoting nutsaboutplanes (Reply 54):
There is demand here for CONNECTIONS. The vast majority of the US operation in PHX is conx pax moving East-West ......the local market is actually rather poor.

PHX has 40 million passengers(as of 2011) and considering how many buissneses are going into PHX for low taxes we can expect a strong growth,with workers migrating to the area. Not only that but the Phoenix-Metro area is a BOOM town and its growing quickly

Out of all counties in the USA Maricopa county where PHX is located is expected to gain the most people by 2020 than any other,Including larger areas such as Los Angeles and New York City

http://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/papers/1319.pdf

http://morrisoninstitute.asu.edu/publications-reports/Mega_AzSunCorr

http://morrisoninstitute.asu.edu/publications-reports/Mega_AzSunCorr

All you have to do is open up these links and you can see that the area is growing fast and more traffic will be needed.Cutting "in half" could be a huge mistake


User currently offlineAllegiantFlyer From United States of America, joined Mar 2012, 177 posts, RR: 0
Reply 60, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 6 days 17 hours ago) and read 28923 times:

Quoting FL787 (Reply 8):
Quoting nutsaboutplanes (Reply 54):
There is demand here for CONNECTIONS. The vast majority of the US operation in PHX is conx pax moving East-West ......the local market is actually rather poor.

PHX has 40 million passengers(as of 2011) and considering how many buissneses are going into PHX for low taxes we can expect a strong growth,with workers migrating to the area. Not only that but the Phoenix-Metro area is a BOOM town and its growing quickly

Out of all counties in the USA Maricopa county where PHX is located is expected to gain the most people by 2020 than any other,Including larger areas such as Los Angeles and New York City

http://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/papers/1319.pdf

http://morrisoninstitute.asu.edu/publications-reports/Mega_AzSunCorr

http://www.workforce.az.gov/population-projections.aspx

All you have to do is open up these links and you can see that the area is growing fast and more traffic will be needed.Cutting "in half" could be a huge mistake


User currently offlinerfields5421 From United States of America, joined Jul 2007, 7607 posts, RR: 31
Reply 61, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 6 days 17 hours ago) and read 28878 times:

Quoting commavia (Reply 5):
It's WFAA, in addition to Dallas Morning News,

WFAA and the Dallas Morning News are the same company. They work closely together. It is not unusual for a DMN originated story to first appear on WFAA if the paper feels the news might leak out with someone else before they get to print.

However, as noted, WFAA and the DMN both have very good inside source at AA.

The basic news is that the AMR board is going to have an unpreviously scheduled meeting on Monday.

The unions appear to be getting one of their goals - Tom Horton out of the decision making, and most of his team in the executive suites.

However, will that be enough to keep them happy in the long run.

I cannot imagine what a mess merging the America West, the US Airways, the American Airlines and the American Eagle seniority lists for pilots will become.


User currently offlineusairways85 From United States of America, joined Nov 2001, 3404 posts, RR: 7
Reply 62, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 6 days 17 hours ago) and read 28735 times:

I'm not sure I understand how JFK & LGA will gain a lot in this. Aren't they both slot controlled? US has a fraction of the slots it used to after the DL deal and only has a handful at JFK. AA may have a decent domestic operation at LGA but hasn't the domestic operation at JFK struggled in recent years? They let B6 and DL take some of the market so they have shrunk to prime domestic and international markets. If JFK is slot controlled or at least during peak hours how does US help AA in JFK?

User currently offlinedw9115 From United States of America, joined Dec 2005, 449 posts, RR: 2
Reply 63, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 6 days 16 hours ago) and read 28416 times:

US Airways credit card with Barclay's is horrible! I really hope they stay with Americans deal with Citi.

User currently offlinecommavia From United States of America, joined Apr 2005, 11630 posts, RR: 61
Reply 64, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 6 days 16 hours ago) and read 28413 times:

Quoting rfields5421 (Reply 64):
WFAA and the Dallas Morning News are the same company. They work closely together. It is not unusual for a DMN originated story to first appear on WFAA if the paper feels the news might leak out with someone else before they get to print.

First off, they aren't the same company. Used to be, aren't anymore. Second, I realize they work closely together. I was simply making the point that this was being reported by multiple different sources, albeit likely all of them were getting their information from the same single leaker, with his own agenda.

Quoting usairways85 (Reply 65):
I'm not sure I understand how JFK & LGA will gain a lot in this. Aren't they both slot controlled? US has a fraction of the slots it used to after the DL deal and only has a handful at JFK. AA may have a decent domestic operation at LGA but hasn't the domestic operation at JFK struggled in recent years? They let B6 and DL take some of the market so they have shrunk to prime domestic and international markets. If JFK is slot controlled or at least during peak hours how does US help AA in JFK?

I agree in general with the premise that if AA and US do merge, the combined carrier stands to gain in the NYC market overall. I'm not sure if it will be a "big" gain, net-net, but I think it would be positive overall.

As to how, there are a few things. First, the combined carrier would be a huge slot holder at New York's capacity-constrained airports, particular JFK and LGA. AA is still sitting on a huge pool of peak-time slots at JFK, and AA and US combined at LGA amount to about 1/3 of all departures. That's big.

The second issue is what they use those slots for. Today, AA's utilization of its precious, prime-time NYC slots - particularly at JFK, but also to some extent LGA - is suboptimal because of the competitive position AA is in. If given the opportunity to use PHL as a true, omni-directional, domestic-and-international, all-day-long connecting hub, it would free AA up to use their NYC slots far better. (As a point of reference, the single only other hub in the northeast capable of serving as that kind of extensive a megahub is EWR - so AA with that kind of hub at PHL plus a huge presence in NYC and DCA would be quite a force.) Instantly AA could eliminate much of the 1-per-day JFK flights to places like BWI, CLE, CVG, etc. - those connections could be handled over PHL, and those prime slots put to better use. Similarly at LGA, AA flights to places like CLT could be eliminated in favor of US' extensive schedule, and the large pool of slots US still has parked on near-wingtip-to-wingtip schedules (mostly to PHL) could be better used. There is a lot of potential there.

It's true that AA has struggled with some of its network out of JFK in recent years. But that was largely because AA has been fighting an uphill battle with uncompetitive costs, and because AA was using its JFK slots suboptimally (albeit the best AA at the time could do). With the options opened up through a merge, AA could use its slots at both JFK and LGA better. Let DL and B6 fight over the JFK-Florida market, and using JFK or LGA as a major connecting point - I doubt AA wants that anyway. AA should be focusing on linking LGA to major U.S. business O&D markets, and JFK with major longhaul international and transcon business O&D markets. A merger would facilitate that.


User currently offlineboeingpride800 From United States of America, joined Jun 2004, 430 posts, RR: 2
Reply 65, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 6 days 16 hours ago) and read 28318 times:

Merger or no merger, what I'm hoping for is a more competitive AA and a changed management. This company needs to have happier employees who are completely on board with the "new" AA before it is ever to actually take flight.

Wishing the best for this company.


User currently offlineBarryH From United States of America, joined Sep 2012, 71 posts, RR: 0
Reply 66, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 6 days 16 hours ago) and read 28368 times:

Not to be a wet blanket, but Bloomberg's coverage seems the most rationale. And assigning a value to US' share of the combined company and who runs it aren't trivial loose ends. We're all well aware of what certain debt holders and employee groups want to see as an outcome but for the most part it's been bluster. And those that have been most vocal don't (singularly) hold enough sway to ensure an outcome. Fun times ahead.

No decisions have been made on how ownership would be split between creditors of American parent AMR Corp. and US Airways investors or who would lead the company, said four of the people, who asked not to be identified because the talks are private.

A deal would create the world’s largest airline, giving American the scale to compete with rivals that surpassed it in size amid a wave of consolidation during the past decade. The possible merger gained support late last month from a group holding $1.5 billion in unsecured AMR debt, people familiar with the matter said then.

The bondholders are pushing for a deal by Feb. 15, the expiration date for a non-disclosure agreement they signed with the two airlines. Talks may still falter, and there is no guarantee of an agreement by that date, the people said.


http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-0...o-intensify-as-deadline-looms.html

Quoting AllegiantFlyer (Reply 63):
PHX has 40 million passengers(as of 2011) and considering how many buissneses are going into PHX for low taxes we can expect a strong growth,with workers migrating to the area. Not only that but the Phoenix-Metro area is a BOOM town and its growing quickly

If those businesses are call centers or regional branches of companies headquartered elsewhere the impact on air travel won't be that significant. And you can't unring a bell. LCC competition in PHX is fierce and the resulting yield pressure is what makes PHX unattractive to network carriers.


User currently offlineIrishAyes From United States of America, joined Jan 2008, 2188 posts, RR: 15
Reply 67, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 6 days 16 hours ago) and read 27997 times:

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 53):
It's exactly how mergers work. Network optimization, and it will hurt CLT a bit, just like it hurt MSP.

I think that's a bit overstated. MSP aircraft movements are down 11% between 2010 and 2012, and overall passenger numbers are largely at the same levels. I don't think DL has trimmed MSP down to the degree that I would call it "hurtful" by any means. Optimized, yes, but not battered.

Quoting commavia (Reply 59):
PHX is going to get cut. Big. I just don't see any way around it. The economic realities are simply inescapable.

The irony of the whole situation is that if PHX gets cut (although I doubt it will be reduced to spoke size entirely) then that basically scales down the last of the HP "hub" assets that US acquired in the merger.

Quoting commavia (Reply 59):
I have no particular problem per se with him taking the helm at a merged AA, along as he doesn't try and turn AA into US.

Or UA, for that matter. That is why despite all of my frustration as a UA elite flier, I am weary of jumping ship to AA (here at ORD) in fear that I may have to go through this all again.

Quoting RavenTech (Reply 60):
Realistically, I see PHX as either a small Hub or massive Focus city for AA.

Probably will play a similar role to CLE in the merged UA network?



next flights: jfk-icn, icn-hkg-bkk-cdg, cdg-phl-msp
User currently offlinegemuser From Australia, joined Nov 2003, 5664 posts, RR: 6
Reply 68, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 6 days 16 hours ago) and read 27994 times:

Quoting AllegiantFlyer (Reply 63):
Out of all counties in the USA Maricopa county where PHX is located is expected to gain the most people by 2020 than any other,Including larger areas such as Los Angeles and New York City

Perhaps a slightly off topic slant, but can I ask where is the water coming from to support all those people. My understanding is that the Colorado River system is pretty well maxed out already.

As an Australian water is always of interest in any discussion of population growth.

Gemuser



DC23468910;B72172273373G73873H74374475275376377L77W;A319 320321332333343;BAe146;C402;DHC6;F27;L188;MD80MD85
User currently onlinedeltairlines From United States of America, joined May 1999, 8902 posts, RR: 12
Reply 69, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 6 days 16 hours ago) and read 27885 times:

Quoting RavenTech (Reply 60):
If the merged carrier shut down PHX tomorrow then I see WN taking 1-2 of the north concourses for expansion. Then all other carriers either up gauging or increase frequency to fill the remaining void. Overall in this scenario PHX will be down because of the amount of connecting from but overall I don't think we are massively over-served.

Agree with this - Southwest will likely be the big winner in Phoenix after this. I wouldn't expect two concourses, but one would seem reasonable. Between that and increasing their local passenger mix (which would improve yields) it would be a good gain.

Quoting RavenTech (Reply 60):
Realistically, I see PHX as either a small Hub or massive Focus city for AA. The routes probably cut will be those that are currently served by AA from another hub and are very marginal currently for US. Then the remaining routes will probably those routes that currently are working well for PHX now and then right size them for O+D and any connecting where it would be of questionable benefit to try and reroute through other hubs.

Phoenix could likely become a CVG type operation - right sized from where it is now. Airways right now has about 260 flights a day, going up to 290 when the Flex Flight operation is in place. You have five banks in each direction; you'd likely see this cut down to three banks in each direction, peaking out at about 125-150 flights/day. I tend to think the flex flights would be gone post-merger, with redeyes left to Charlotte, Philadelphia, Miami, Kennedy, O'Hare and maybe Boston (which I doubt, as US can't even keep a year round redeye there).

Keep in mind that with a merger, a lot of the large RJ feed at PHX (CR9s are around 40 flights/day) would likely be cut down to help support ORD and LGA where those planes could be better used early on in the merger process (just as we saw post-HP merger with those CR9s quickly making their way into the CLT market).

Now, I expect a decent AA presence in PHX to remain. There is a market there that will value the First Class, lounges, frequent flyer perks, etc. that American offers and Southwest will not. It just becomes a matter of right-sizing the market to find the balance between keeping these benefits and finding profitability. Phoenix, at least unlike some of the midwestern cities such as CVG, PIT, and STL, has a lot more potential lying ahead of it - it's still struggling with the weight of the Great Recession, but I'd say the potential is there (and I'd love to see it - I loved my year living in Scottsdale).


User currently offlinebobloblaw From United States of America, joined Jan 2012, 1725 posts, RR: 1
Reply 70, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 6 days 16 hours ago) and read 27732 times:

Quoting AeroWesty (Reply 52):
Air Cal
Allegheny
America West
Empire
Lake Central
Mohawk
Ozark
Piedmont
PSA
Reno Air
Trans Caribbean
TWA
US Airways

Did I miss any?

Penn Central?


User currently offlineRavenTech From United States of America, joined Aug 2012, 54 posts, RR: 0
Reply 71, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 6 days 16 hours ago) and read 27785 times:

Quoting gemuser (Reply 71):

Another major source is a large underground water table. In Peoria (15-20 mins NW of PHX), the major source IIRC is well water with partial replenishment from the sanitary system cleaning the used water and discharging back into the ground.

Quoting IrishAyes (Reply 70):

Just from looking at the wikipedia of the airport then more/less. Maybe a little more mainline especially given the large maintenance base, but that can also move out as well (though will probably be a quite a while down the road based on the size).


User currently offlineBlueSky1976 From Poland, joined Jul 2004, 1884 posts, RR: 4
Reply 72, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 6 days 16 hours ago) and read 27621 times:

Quoting Drmlnr1 (Reply 61):
What will happen to the A350's US has on order??

I imagine it would be cancelled in favour of some additional A32Xneos.

American has orders and options for up to 100 787s, with 42 of these being "firm" (meaning having slots assigned for delivery), so having 10 A350s makes no sense whatsoever for the new AA.



STOP TERRORRUSSIA!!!
User currently offlinerwy04lga From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 3176 posts, RR: 8
Reply 73, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 6 days 16 hours ago) and read 27379 times:

Quoting commavia (Reply 59):
AA+US could probably fit in C-D

A lot of LGA passengers show up at 'terminal C' when they really want 'concourse C' at terminal B. So, to be clear, when you say 'C-D', what you mean is 'concourses C and D at terminal B', correct? FYI, Delta boarding passes say terminal C or D...no other airline (that I've seen) at LGA denotes what terminal is to be used.



Just accept that some days, you're the pigeon, and other days the statue
User currently offlinePHLwok From United States of America, joined May 2007, 504 posts, RR: 0
Reply 74, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 6 days 16 hours ago) and read 27343 times:

Quoting usairways85 (Reply 65):
I'm not sure I understand how JFK & LGA will gain a lot in this. Aren't they both slot controlled? US has a fraction of the slots it used to after the DL deal and only has a handful at JFK. AA may have a decent domestic operation at LGA but hasn't the domestic operation at JFK struggled in recent years? They let B6 and DL take some of the market so they have shrunk to prime domestic and international markets. If JFK is slot controlled or at least during peak hours how does US help AA in JFK?

This is why all the folks saying JFK will replace PHL can't be correct - JFK can't replace PHL either operationally or geographically. And if you close PHL as a hub, you lose a lot of traffic from the country's 5th largest metro area. JFK also does not have much domestic feed, nor can it expand to either.

JFK is not a PHL replacement. Aside from some in the PHL area driving there for nonstops to far afield, such as Asia, that have been more available in recent years from EWR anyway, it's a true pain to get to JFK from the Philly area. Heck, it can be hard to get there from Manhattan at rush hour with any kind of speed.

Quoting commavia (Reply 67):
If given the opportunity to use PHL as a true, omni-directional, domestic-and-international, all-day-long connecting hub, it would free AA up to use their NYC slots far better. (As a point of reference, the single only other hub in the northeast capable of serving as that kind of extensive a megahub is EWR - so AA with that kind of hub at PHL plus a huge presence in NYC and DCA would be quite a force.) Instantly AA could eliminate much of the 1-per-day JFK flights to places like BWI, CLE, CVG, etc. - those connections could be handled over PHL, and those prime slots put to better use. Similarly at LGA, AA flights to places like CLT could be eliminated in favor of US' extensive schedule, and the large pool of slots US still has parked on near-wingtip-to-wingtip schedules (mostly to PHL) could be better used. There is a lot of potential there.

If the merged company's management is smart, this is what they'll do as this is where the opportunity is. It would be well positioned to use PHL correctly, would have the focus city at DCA serving the DC metro with its higher yields and convenient-to-DC location and limited connections, could finally make better use of LGA slots, and use JFK for international O&D and traffic pushed there by LGA perimeter restrictions (e.g., NYC-LAX/SFO). Additionally, you'd have the geographically advantageous hub in CLT and what is probably the best located hub in the US to the Caribbean and most of Latin America in MIA. Properly executed, that is one very dominant carrier in the East, the most densely populated part of the country by a long shot.

Less clear to me is the PHX situation, as much transcon traffic heading to California from points east can route via DFW, but AA at LAX also can't expand significantly without more terminal capacity, and PHX is a large and fast growing area that they shouldn't cede to WN for O&D traffic reasons. Maybe it becomes more like DCA without the perimeter rule - good connectivity to the rest of the country to support O&D and some regional connections so someone flying DEN-SAN on AA wouldn't have to route via DFW or a RJ on LAX-SAN.

We seem to have these very similar discussions around hub closures every time AA/US comes up here; most analyses ignore the opportunities and focus on pure downsizing, and misunderstand how isolated JFK is from a ground transportation perspective and how much it can't grow due to slots.


User currently offlinecoairman From United States of America, joined Dec 2010, 117 posts, RR: 0
Reply 75, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 6 days 16 hours ago) and read 27127 times:

I would love to see a AA-US merger hub optimization internal merger document. I bet CLT and PHX are hit the hardest. I think AA's MIA hub will hurt CLT as far as route duplication. PHX will shrink at the benefit of LAX and DFW.

[Edited 2013-02-06 21:13:09]


Patience Can Be A Virtue.
User currently offlinealfa164 From United States of America, joined Oct 2012, 473 posts, RR: 0
Reply 76, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 6 days 16 hours ago) and read 27091 times:

Quoting reffado (Reply 57):
Quoting IrishAyes (Reply 70):
I think that's a bit overstated. MSP aircraft movements are down 11% between 2010 and 2012, and overall passenger numbers are largely at the same levels. I don't think DL has trimmed MSP down to the degree that I would call it "hurtful" by any means. Optimized, yes, but not battered.

MSP operations are down because DL eliminated flying with the smallest planes (Saabs, most 50-passenger RJ's) and replaced them with bigger aircraft. The result has been about the same passenger numbers, but better planes and smoother operations. It looks like AA is approaching ORD with the same idea.

Quoting commavia (Reply 59):
I think that's probably right. I suspect that if AA and US merge, with regard to the LGA gates they would probably try and strike a "grand bargain" with UA and the PA to consolidate ops in the CTB. If UA was out of C, AA+US could probably fit in C-D.

I don't expect AA to be too welcome in C and D; DL spend millions to upgrade their gates (swapped from US) in C, and D... well it isn't called the "Delta Flight Center"for no reason!


User currently offlineFlighty From United States of America, joined Apr 2007, 8541 posts, RR: 2
Reply 77, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 6 days 15 hours ago) and read 26913 times:

Quoting IrishAyes (Reply 70):
. MSP aircraft movements are down 11% between 2010 and 2012, and overall passenger numbers are largely at the same levels. I don't think DL has trimmed MSP down to the degree that I would call it "hurtful" by any means. Optimized, yes, but not battered.

The metaphor is very good. DL kept the hubs that were obviously viable. Including things like SLC and MSP. Did they tweak capacity, and employ cross-fleeting, of course they did.

Having said CLT and PHL are viable, AA's ORD situation is unknown and little discussed. LAX+JFK are, to put it mildly, question marks. If AA were making money there, we would have seen gigantic AA operations there similar to another DFW. But even when JFK had slots open, AA didn't use them. Didn't want them. Same at LAX - they could expand but they (eventually tire of losing money there).

I am fully a believer on DFW/MIA and PHL/CLT as permanent hubs for a combined carrier. And DCA. The rest? Questionable imo.

[Edited 2013-02-06 21:16:07]

User currently offlineinfiniti329 From United States of America, joined Jul 2012, 667 posts, RR: 0
Reply 78, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 6 days 15 hours ago) and read 26779 times:

As much as I dont want this merger to happen....If it does and the they are forced to give up slots at LGA, the only airlines I see going after them are WN & B6 and it will be a bloodbath... And if Terminal C is vacated I see WN with the advanatge as it stands they have more flights than B6

Flight Total
WN 27 (FL 11) 3 Gates
B6 18 3 Gates


User currently offlinecapitalflyer From United States of America, joined Nov 2010, 343 posts, RR: 0
Reply 79, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 6 days 15 hours ago) and read 26678 times:

Will US DCA slots go to American in case of merger, or will we have a huge free for all?

User currently offlinerwy04lga From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 3176 posts, RR: 8
Reply 80, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 6 days 15 hours ago) and read 26572 times:

Any chance of Delta getting terminal C all to itself? Perhaps moving the Marine Air Terminal shuttle ops to terminal C?


Just accept that some days, you're the pigeon, and other days the statue
User currently offlinealfa164 From United States of America, joined Oct 2012, 473 posts, RR: 0
Reply 81, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 6 days 15 hours ago) and read 26524 times:

Quoting rwy04lga (Reply 83):
Any chance of Delta getting terminal C all to itself? Perhaps moving the Marine Air Terminal shuttle ops to terminal C?

I hope not! Please keep the MAT... and bring back the ferry service from Manhattan!


User currently offlineBDL757 From United States of America, joined Apr 2012, 150 posts, RR: 0
Reply 82, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 6 days 15 hours ago) and read 26395 times:

Quoting alfa164 (Reply 79):
I don't expect AA to be too welcome in C and D; DL spend millions to upgrade their gates (swapped from US) in C, and D... well it isn't called the "Delta Flight Center"for no reason!

Not quite, I believe he is talking about CONCOURSES C and D which are in TERMINAL B. Not terminals C and D...it is really confusing for the pax.


User currently onlinedeltairlines From United States of America, joined May 1999, 8902 posts, RR: 12
Reply 83, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 6 days 15 hours ago) and read 26390 times:

Quoting capitalflyer (Reply 82):

Will US DCA slots go to American in case of merger, or will we have a huge free for all?

Yes, but I'd most certainly expect some divestiture required by DOT and/or DOJ. AA would add 50 daily slots to US' 243, giving them 293 out of the 437 or so slots at DCA (this would be just over 2/3rds of the slots. I could see the 12 slots that AA has for BNA/RDU being divested to slightly appease the feds.

Quoting rwy04lga (Reply 83):
Any chance of Delta getting terminal C all to itself? Perhaps moving the Marine Air Terminal shuttle ops to terminal C?

Doubt it. The Marine Air Terminal is significantly closer to Manhattan than the Terminal C/D complex, chopping off a good 1.5-2 miles off (which in New York traffic can mean 10 minutes each way). Not to mention the lack of hassle - I've flown out of the MAT about 10 times in the past year and there's never been more than 3-4 people ahead of me at security. With the 15 minute check-in times at MAT, it's something that appeals to business travelers and would be difficult to replicate at C/D.

Likewise, if the new combined carrier puts their Shuttle in Pier A of the CTB for now, it could offer a quicker security check given that it's only B6 and AC in there, rather than throwing it into CTB-C/D.


User currently offlineinfiniti329 From United States of America, joined Jul 2012, 667 posts, RR: 0
Reply 84, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 6 days 15 hours ago) and read 26276 times:

Quoting rwy04lga (Reply 83):
Any chance of Delta getting terminal C all to itself? Perhaps moving the Marine Air Terminal shuttle ops to terminal C?


hmmm this would be temtping for DL as this will save them alot $$$... and that side of the airport would officially become DeltaLand


User currently offlinetommytoyz From Tonga, joined Jan 2007, 1353 posts, RR: 6
Reply 85, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 6 days 15 hours ago) and read 26210 times:

This would need court and creditor approval. This story has gotten way ahead of itself. Maybe the intention of both boards to merge and to seek court and creditor approval will be announced. But AA can not do this via board approval alone. They are still bound to the creditors - who ultimately have the last word on this, as does the judge.

User currently onlinerj777 From United States of America, joined Dec 2000, 1844 posts, RR: 2
Reply 86, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 6 days 15 hours ago) and read 26042 times:

Quoting tommytoyz (Reply 88):
They are still bound to the creditors - who ultimately have the last word on this, as does the judge.

Who's to say they haven't already asked the creditors and the judge for a hypothetical yes/no or will before making the announcement? There's just too much going on behind the scenes to know exactly what will lead to the (supposed) announcement.


User currently offlinenikeson13 From United States of America, joined Dec 2011, 8 posts, RR: 0
Reply 87, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 6 days 14 hours ago) and read 25935 times:

So will there be a joint livery like UA/CO or will it stay the new AA livery?

User currently offlinenutsaboutplanes From United States of America, joined Jul 2010, 496 posts, RR: 8
Reply 88, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 6 days 14 hours ago) and read 25739 times:

[quote=PHX787,reply=56]How so? Show me some numbers. People always say "poor" but this airport is always so crowded with people flying in and out for various reasons that pertain to the state of Arizona.[/quote

This is no different than people not understanding load factor vs. profitability. I don't care if every seat in and out of Phoenix is spoken for, if the yield isn't there, it doesn't matter how full the airplanes are or how crowded the airport is. As far as numbers, let me simply invite you to spend some time at the T4 ticket counter after 10am.....very minimal originating traffic......those concourses are FULL OF CONNECTIONS for the rest of the day.



American Airlines, US Airways, Alaska Airlines, Northwest Airlines, America West Airlines, USAFR
User currently offlineoc2dc From United States of America, joined Feb 2013, 369 posts, RR: 0
Reply 89, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 6 days 14 hours ago) and read 25374 times:

Being the biggest airline sounds nice, but i'm concerned about in-flight services. American is already ok. They have wi-fi on many of their planes and the overhead videos aren't terrible. With the new jets AA has on order, they will definitely do great in the IFE department. However, I hear US is horrendous. Advertisements on the back of seats, no IFE whatsoever and very little wi-fi. I wonder what AA elites will think when they step aboard a US plane with US crews.
'
Lets face it, US is grades below AA. I'm concerned Parker won't care to continue down the path of the "new American."



I'm not complaining, I'm critiquing...
User currently offlineAntoniemey From United States of America, joined Dec 2005, 1571 posts, RR: 4
Reply 90, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 6 days 14 hours ago) and read 25315 times:

Quoting airliner371 (Reply 11):
AA/US is largest if you go buy enplaned passengers.

Why would you want to purchase passengers?

  

Quoting nikeson13 (Reply 90):
So will there be a joint livery like UA/CO or will it stay the new AA livery?

That's only been answered three times in EVERY thread about this possible merger...

The new AA livery and branding will stay. It MIGHT be tweaked, but I doubt it.



Make something Idiot-proof, and the Universe will make a more inept idiot.
User currently offlinewn676 From Djibouti, joined Jun 2005, 1037 posts, RR: 4
Reply 91, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 6 days 13 hours ago) and read 24949 times:

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 56):
How so?

Keep in mind we're talking only about US; their entire operation is focused primarily on connections. Their model isn't to attract a large number of local passengers, which is why you see the bank structure. WN captures a better local traffic ratio and that has been the case for years. It believe it's in the range of 65/35 local to connecting with US having basically the opposite, although I can't seem to find the article where I remember those numbers being posted.

[Edited 2013-02-06 23:41:36]


Tiny, unreadable text leaves ample room for interpretation.
User currently offlineDIRECTFLT From United States of America, joined Jan 2010, 55 posts, RR: 0
Reply 92, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 6 days 12 hours ago) and read 24780 times:

Another source for the merger story from CBS news- Dallas:

Wednesday, February 6, 2013 6:01 PM CDT

http://dfw.cbslocal.com/2013/02/06/s...-aaus-air-merger-coming-next-week/

[Edited 2013-02-07 00:21:21]


Smoothest Ride so far: AA A300B4-600R ~~ Favorite Aviation Author ~ Robert J. Serling
User currently offlineDIRECTFLT From United States of America, joined Jan 2010, 55 posts, RR: 0
Reply 93, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 6 days 12 hours ago) and read 24524 times:

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 72):
Did I miss any?

Penn Central?

The USPS

(Oooops, too early to call that one...)



Smoothest Ride so far: AA A300B4-600R ~~ Favorite Aviation Author ~ Robert J. Serling
User currently offlinegemuser From Australia, joined Nov 2003, 5664 posts, RR: 6
Reply 94, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 6 days 10 hours ago) and read 23716 times:

Quoting RavenTech (Reply 73):
Another major source is a large underground water table.

Is this an artesian aquifer or local water table? In either case it seems unlikely to support the population growth being talked about in this thread.

Gemuser



DC23468910;B72172273373G73873H74374475275376377L77W;A319 320321332333343;BAe146;C402;DHC6;F27;L188;MD80MD85
User currently offlineskytony From United States of America, joined Sep 2005, 145 posts, RR: 0
Reply 95, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 6 days 10 hours ago) and read 23688 times:

Maybe they will change the name back to American Airways?


Lower your expectations! You will always be pleasantly surprised!
User currently offlinebobloblaw From United States of America, joined Jan 2012, 1725 posts, RR: 1
Reply 96, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 6 days 9 hours ago) and read 23700 times:

Quoting coairman (Reply 77):

CLT and MIA do not compete for traffic flows on probably 90% or more of the traffic. There is also enough traffic to the carribbean for flights from both hubs.


User currently offlineSTT757 From United States of America, joined Mar 2000, 16866 posts, RR: 51
Reply 97, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 6 days 9 hours ago) and read 23325 times:

Quoting commavia (Reply 58):
and an entirely sufficient #3 in NYC



They would be around 19.3 million passengers per year combined at EWR, JFK, LGA.

Quoting usairways85 (Reply 64):
I'm not sure I understand how JFK & LGA will gain a lot in this. Aren't they both slot controlled?



There really wouldn't be a change, for instance I don't see them bringing back the JFK-Caribbean routes they axed. Those are going to be routed through PHL, CLT and MIA where there's no competition.



Eastern Air lines flt # 701, EWR-MCO Boeing 757
User currently offlinetommyy From United States of America, joined Oct 2006, 66 posts, RR: 0
Reply 98, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 6 days 9 hours ago) and read 23317 times:

What will happan to the flight to TLV, AA never flew there because of the TWA pension issue, will they stop the PHL-TLV or settle with Israel and move the flight to JFK or MIA where there is a lot more traffic to Israel ?

User currently offlineSTT757 From United States of America, joined Mar 2000, 16866 posts, RR: 51
Reply 99, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 6 days 9 hours ago) and read 23281 times:

Quoting tommyy (Reply 100):
What will happan to the flight to TLV, AA never flew there because of the TWA pension issue, will they stop the PHL-TLV or settle with Israel and move the flight to JFK or MIA where there is a lot more traffic to Israel ?

Since the surving company will be AA, and they've never shown any indication they were willing to settle in the past 13 years, I'm going to say TLV will not be on AA's route map.



Eastern Air lines flt # 701, EWR-MCO Boeing 757
User currently offlinecommavia From United States of America, joined Apr 2005, 11630 posts, RR: 61
Reply 100, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 6 days 8 hours ago) and read 22751 times:

Excellent analysis from Swelbar. He makes good points. In particular:

Collaboration is critical. That doesn’t mean Tom Horton must be a part of the new American if the architects of any deal determine he’s not welcome. Nor does it mean that the entire American team in place today is necessarily the best choice. But if the leadership crown goes to Parker’s Phoenix posse, they would be making a grave error to impose the US Airways style on the new American without leveraging American’s successes and cultural assets.

American has proven adept at managing its regional affiliations, code share partners, joint ventures with British Airways and JAL and a loyalty program that arguably is more valuable than US Airways itself. Its marketing and IT capabilities exceed anything US Airways has ever tried. And American knows far better than its potential new partner how to treat the premium customer who wants warm nuts and lie-flat seats in first class.

I can only hope that the “best of the best” of the two companies will be a part of any new one, because that’s the only way the new airline will compete effectively with first movers Delta, United and Southwest.


Quoting IrishAyes (Reply 69):
The irony of the whole situation is that if PHX gets cut (although I doubt it will be reduced to spoke size entirely) then that basically scales down the last of the HP "hub" assets that US acquired in the merger.

Ironic, yes.

Quoting deltairlines (Reply 71):
Phoenix could likely become a CVG type operation - right sized from where it is now. Airways right now has about 260 flights a day, going up to 290 when the Flex Flight operation is in place. You have five banks in each direction; you'd likely see this cut down to three banks in each direction, peaking out at about 125-150 flights/day. I tend to think the flex flights would be gone post-merger, with redeyes left to Charlotte, Philadelphia, Miami, Kennedy, O'Hare and maybe Boston (which I doubt, as US can't even keep a year round redeye there).

Keep in mind that with a merger, a lot of the large RJ feed at PHX (CR9s are around 40 flights/day) would likely be cut down to help support ORD and LGA where those planes could be better used early on in the merger process (just as we saw post-HP merger with those CR9s quickly making their way into the CLT market).

Now, I expect a decent AA presence in PHX to remain. There is a market there that will value the First Class, lounges, frequent flyer perks, etc. that American offers and Southwest will not. It just becomes a matter of right-sizing the market to find the balance between keeping these benefits and finding profitability. Phoenix, at least unlike some of the midwestern cities such as CVG, PIT, and STL, has a lot more potential lying ahead of it - it's still struggling with the weight of the Great Recession, but I'd say the potential is there (and I'd love to see it - I loved my year living in Scottsdale).

  

I pretty much agree on all of the above. PHX is a huge market, with a both a large outbound and inbound demand component, and a respectable business market. But, all that being said, PHX does not require a hub the size of which US now operates there in order to cater to those markets. PHX is a hub of its size today because US, with its limited network, has little alternative. With a merger, several excellent alternatives instantly appear.

Quoting rwy04lga (Reply 75):
A lot of LGA passengers show up at 'terminal C' when they really want 'concourse C' at terminal B. So, to be clear, when you say 'C-D', what you mean is 'concourses C and D at terminal B', correct?

I was referring to Concourses C-D in the CTB.

Quoting Flighty (Reply 79):
AA's ORD situation is unknown and little discussed.

It's relatively known. It's a huge hub in one of America's largest population centers. Finally freed from union contract strictures, and thus with the right costs and the right fleet, ORD should be a thriving hub. Not to mention, if there is a merger, ORD's location means it may well stand to pick up some additional traffic as network gaps are filled in and hubs optimized.

Quoting Flighty (Reply 79):
LAX+JFK are, to put it mildly, question marks. If AA were making money there, we would have seen gigantic AA operations there similar to another DFW. But even when JFK had slots open, AA didn't use them. Didn't want them. Same at LAX - they could expand but they (eventually tire of losing money there).

I don't really see how they are question marks. For starters, it's not as easy as saying "if AA were making money, they'd have gigantic operations." Both JFK and LAX are capacity-constrained (for different reasons) and thus even if AA were making huge money, they couldn't have "gigantic" operations. But either way, the size and scope of AA's operations at both airports reflects their market realities. Both cater to massive local markets, but hyper-competitive ones. AA uses both to connect longhaul and shorthaul networks, and provide key connectivity for partners.

I don't see why any of that, in general, would change with a merger. I see LAX changing very little, as the role it serves is unique and cannot be replicated. JFK I see changing somewhat - lots of peak-time slots there are today being used for 1-per-day connections to international flights. Those I see being replaced with more longhaul (international and transcon) flights catering to the huge local NYC O&D market, while connections are shifted to some extent over PHL. But AA would still maintain a large presence in NYC (JFK and LGA).

Quoting STT757 (Reply 99):
They would be around 19.3 million passengers per year combined at EWR, JFK, LGA.

Like I said - a very respectable #3. Again - with a hub in PHL, AA need not duke it out for sheer seat/passenger count in NYC with UA and DL. Both of those carriers need to fight it out for volume in NYC because they both operate hubs of some form in NYC that require volume to drive frequency, and thus support their hubs. AA could focus its NYC presence on catering to O&D, a market AA knows quite well, and as such being #3 - with hundreds of daily departures out of EWR/LGA/JFK to the prime business markets - would be more than sufficient.

Quoting STT757 (Reply 101):
Since the surving company will be AA, and they've never shown any indication they were willing to settle in the past 13 years, I'm going to say TLV will not be on AA's route map.

If there's a merger, I expect the "new AA" to be flying to TLV, not only from PHL but possibly also from JFK. If the market is as lucrative as it seems, they'll figure out how to make it work.


User currently offlineSTT757 From United States of America, joined Mar 2000, 16866 posts, RR: 51
Reply 101, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 6 days 8 hours ago) and read 22496 times:

Quoting commavia (Reply 101):
If there's a merger, I expect the "new AA" to be flying to TLV, not only from PHL but possibly also from JFK. If the market is as lucrative as it seems, they'll figure out how to make it work.



Is it worth it though? How much can TLV earn AA vs. what the settlement will cost. We had a good thread a year or two and it was brought up that with interest and such the settlement due to Israeli employees of TWA is over $20 million. How many years would AA need to fly to TLV before they made back the $20 Million? If they paid it back in 2001 they would have save themselves a fortune.



Eastern Air lines flt # 701, EWR-MCO Boeing 757
User currently offlineusairways85 From United States of America, joined Nov 2001, 3404 posts, RR: 7
Reply 102, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 6 days 7 hours ago) and read 22383 times:

Quoting commavia (Reply 65):
The second issue is what they use those slots for. Today, AA's utilization of its precious, prime-time NYC slots - particularly at JFK, but also to some extent LGA - is suboptimal because of the competitive position AA is in. If given the opportunity to use PHL as a true, omni-directional, domestic-and-international, all-day-long connecting hub, it would free AA up to use their NYC slots far better. (As a point of reference, the single only other hub in the northeast capable of serving as that kind of extensive a megahub is EWR - so AA with that kind of hub at PHL plus a huge presence in NYC and DCA would be quite a force.) Instantly AA could eliminate much of the 1-per-day JFK flights to places like BWI, CLE, CVG, etc. - those connections could be handled over PHL, and those prime slots put to better use. Similarly at LGA, AA flights to places like CLT could be eliminated in favor of US' extensive schedule, and the large pool of slots US still has parked on near-wingtip-to-wingtip schedules (mostly to PHL) could be better used. There is a lot of potential there.

Ok, the strategy you lined out makes complete sense. Many people have said they will rationalize PHL in favor of JFK. And while I agree they may rightsize certain PHL markets I don't see them drastically cutting PHL. Mainly because I don't see them building that megahub in JFK with 400-500 daily flts.


User currently offlinejfklganyc From United States of America, joined Jan 2004, 3477 posts, RR: 5
Reply 103, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 6 days 7 hours ago) and read 22203 times:

Quoting usairways85 (Reply 62):
I'm not sure I understand how JFK & LGA will gain a lot in this. Aren't they both slot controlled? US has a fraction of the slots it used to after the DL deal and only has a handful at JFK. AA may have a decent domestic operation at LGA but hasn't the domestic operation at JFK struggled in recent years? They let B6 and DL take some of the market so they have shrunk to prime domestic and international markets. If JFK is slot controlled or at least during peak hours how does US help AA in JFK?

You're a smart man. See past a.net folklore to reality. The new AA at LGA/JFK/EWR will be AAs EWR slots+USs EWR slots+AAs LGA slots+USs LGA slots+AAs JFK slots (used and unused)+USs JFK slots.
Nothing more, nothing less...unless they get a deal to offload or gain more.

Quoting commavia (Reply 64):
Instantly AA could eliminate much of the 1-per-day JFK flights to places like BWI, CLE, CVG, etc. - those connections could be handled over PHL, and those prime slots put to better use.

Those aren't going anywhere and you know it. AA doesn't even know what to do with the JFK slots they have now. It is use or lose. You keep talking about these gold mine routes that could be started...what are they? where are they? They could start them right now. And if there is a pot of gold at the end of a rainbow, B6, DL or the 80 other airlines at the airport probably already serve it...alongside AA.

You also put the nix on Florida routes...dont know where you are from...but Florida is NYCs biggest market. And if you are not a player in that market, you are not a player in NYC. Because the guys flying to LHR in AAs high yielding business want to use their miles to get their kids to the Mouse House...plain and simple.


User currently offlinemilesrich From United States of America, joined Jul 2003, 2000 posts, RR: 6
Reply 104, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 6 days 6 hours ago) and read 21303 times:

Quoting airliner371 (Reply 10):
Quoting FL787 (Reply 8):
By what measure are they basing this off of?

AA/US is largest if you go buy enplaned passengers.

Before deregulation, Eastern Air Lines was the largest carrier based on this criteria, but only Eastern trumpeted that fact. United was the largest in terms of ppms.


User currently offlineusairways85 From United States of America, joined Nov 2001, 3404 posts, RR: 7
Reply 105, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 6 days 6 hours ago) and read 20831 times:

Quoting jfklganyc (Reply 103):
Those aren't going anywhere and you know it. AA doesn't even know what to do with the JFK slots they have now. It is use or lose. You keep talking about these gold mine routes that could be started...what are they? where are they? They could start them right now. And if there is a pot of gold at the end of a rainbow, B6, DL or the 80 other airlines at the airport probably already serve it...alongside AA.

Well the thought is they could route BWI, CLE, etc. through PHL as the connecting hub. But as you pointed out where are the prime routes, particularly O&D routes, out of JFK. You have LAX, SFO, MIA, LHR, and probably some caribbean markets. However, they have also cut JFK-caribbean, especially with the recent announcement of SDQ/STI receiving the axe and haven't they struggled with 2nd/3rd tier European airports like MUC, VCE, FRA, DUB, AMS, GLA. Many of which face stiff competition at JFK and practically none in PHL.


User currently offlinecommavia From United States of America, joined Apr 2005, 11630 posts, RR: 61
Reply 106, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 6 days 5 hours ago) and read 20503 times:

Quoting jfklganyc (Reply 103):
Those aren't going anywhere and you know it.

Thank you for telling me what I do and don't "know." And for your information, no, I don't "know" any more or less than you do. I think the scenario I laid out is entirely plausible - indeed likely - if AA and US merge: PHL becomes the true connecting "hub" while JFK/LGA are optimized primarily for the huge NYC O&D market.

Quoting jfklganyc (Reply 103):
It is use or lose. You keep talking about these gold mine routes that could be started...what are they?

Internationally - TLV, FRA, GLA. There's three right there. With the right costs and right equipment, I think all 3 would work for AA out of JFK.

Quoting jfklganyc (Reply 103):
They could start them right now.

They don't have sufficient slots. That's my point. Today AA has to balance the slot utilization at JFK for both O&D and connections. If AA needed to rely on JFK less for connections, they could free up some slots for more O&D-oriented routes.

Quoting jfklganyc (Reply 103):
And if there is a pot of gold at the end of a rainbow, B6, DL or the 80 other airlines at the airport probably already serve it...alongside AA.

AA, B6 and DL can coexist at JFK (and in NYC in general).

Quoting jfklganyc (Reply 103):
You also put the nix on Florida routes...dont know where you are from...but Florida is NYCs biggest market. And if you are not a player in that market, you are not a player in NYC. Because the guys flying to LHR in AAs high yielding business want to use their miles to get their kids to the Mouse House...plain and simple.

I didn't say AA exits NYC-Florida. I simply said AA could let DL and B6 fight over it. AA can maintain a token presence in the main NYC-Florida markets (MCO, TPA and MIA/somewhere in South Florida). But AA doesn't need to spend resources fighting DL and B6 for market share on JFK-TPA. Let them have it.

Quoting usairways85 (Reply 105):
and haven't they struggled with 2nd/3rd tier European airports like MUC, VCE, FRA, DUB, AMS, GLA

Not really. AA hasn't really flown JFK-"secondary" Europe much if at all for years. For around the last decade, AA has remained relatively stable at JFK - the only JFK-Europe routes AA has cancelled in that time have been BRU and BUD. But AA has added several more, and all the rest have stayed around.


User currently offlineckfred From United States of America, joined Apr 2001, 5236 posts, RR: 1
Reply 107, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 6 days 5 hours ago) and read 20089 times:

Quoting QANTASvJet (Reply 6):
Let's just hope this means the end to that terrible tail. (I don't need to explain, you know what I mean...)

Actually, the tail is starting to grow on me.

What US could do, post merger, is paint the planes in the US livery, replacing US Airways with American, but keep the new AA striped tail.

But, if the deal goes through, would the advertising change to the new new American, since it would be the new American with a new owner?

And, would Parker take out the first class cabins on the 773s and the trans-con A321s. After all, US doesn't have any 3-class cabins. US has managed to do well without the finicky corporate types and celebrities. So, why does the combined AA/US need those passengers.


User currently offlineusairways85 From United States of America, joined Nov 2001, 3404 posts, RR: 7
Reply 108, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 6 days 5 hours ago) and read 20055 times:

Quoting commavia (Reply 106):
Not really. AA hasn't really flown JFK-"secondary" Europe much if at all for years. For around the last decade, AA has remained relatively stable at JFK - the only JFK-Europe routes AA has cancelled in that time have been BRU and BUD. But AA has added several more, and all the rest have stayed around.

I just looked at a AA's JFK-Europe schedule today. Yes it is a small subset and in the winter season.
Here are the destinations.
LHR
MAN
MAD
MXP
CDG

I know LHR is a huge market but the number of destinations is rather underwhelming. I don't know you can simply move US' PHL flts to JFK (AMS, DUB, VCE, etc) and just expect that they will thrive. Why hasn't AA started them in the past? PHL doesn't have nearly as much O&D as JFK but they cover the gap with a rather strong connection point that JFK currently does not have.

My point is that yes AA can probably adjust JFK and add some additional markets but PHL has a relatively strong European network that the combined carrier should leverage.


User currently onlinepoint2point From United States of America, joined Mar 2010, 2758 posts, RR: 1
Reply 109, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 6 days 5 hours ago) and read 19905 times:

Okay..... now that just about everyone and their Uncle Phil has chimed in about all the hubs here (and I know we're all waiting to hear from Granny Ida who'll be along soon with here pushing in her    ), I'm thinking along the lines of probably a smallish detail..... but would the current AA-B6 code share maybe continue if there were a merger? Would the new AA need to continue with B6 here? From the B6 website....

convenient connections between 26 domestic JetBlue markets and 15 international destinations served by American Airlines from New York's JFK and Boston's Logan airports.

So at present it seems that AA and B6 make each others life a bit smoother, especially at JFK and BOS.

But has BK or would any merger plans affect this? And didn't AA and AS just expand some code-sharing as well recently? If this were recent..... maybe these ex-OW code-shares will remain?


 


User currently offlinebobloblaw From United States of America, joined Jan 2012, 1725 posts, RR: 1
Reply 110, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 6 days 5 hours ago) and read 19814 times:

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 50):
It's exactly how mergers work. Network optimization, and it will hurt CLT a bit, just like it hurt MSP.

Network optimization means you do less overflying of your hubs, not more. If anything longer haul RJ flights from DFW to cities in the SE will be cut in favor of CLT unless those routes have lots of local DFW traffic or lots of traffic to cities not served from CLT. I can use your argument against DFW as well. Saying that DFW will lose flights to ICT, OKC and TUL and that traffic will go to CLT instead. Makes no sense.


User currently offlineckfred From United States of America, joined Apr 2001, 5236 posts, RR: 1
Reply 111, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 6 days 5 hours ago) and read 19823 times:

Here's one issue that the merger would have to deal with, BOS. I know that they are building a connection around the parking garage to connect the US and AA sides of Terminal B. But could you imagine connecting at B, if you had to switch sides? Or how about a gate change due to a delay, and having to walk from one side to the other.

User currently offlinexaapb From Mexico, joined Jan 2005, 438 posts, RR: 5
Reply 112, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 6 days 5 hours ago) and read 19845 times:

Quoting nutsaboutplanes (Reply 51):
There is demand here for CONNECTIONS. The vast majority of the US operation in PHX is conx pax moving East-West ......the local market is actually rather poor

Flying from MEX to LAS via PHX is what most of the time my family and I do, not to mention that normally US have the best fares to LAS via PHX. I've also seen many passengers going via PHX to other parts of the US and even Canada.

Greetings.



Jorge Meneses
User currently offlineAA787 From United States of America, joined Feb 2004, 610 posts, RR: 12
Reply 113, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 6 days 5 hours ago) and read 19629 times:

Quoting usairways85 (Reply 108):
I just looked at a AA's JFK-Europe schedule today. Yes it is a small subset and in the winter season.
Here are the destinations.
LHR
MAN
MAD
MXP
CDG

You are missing ZRH and BCN



ET In NYC
User currently onlinedeltairlines From United States of America, joined May 1999, 8902 posts, RR: 12
Reply 114, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 6 days 5 hours ago) and read 19590 times:

Quoting usairways85 (Reply 108):
Why hasn't AA started them in the past? PHL doesn't have nearly as much O&D as JFK but they cover the gap with a rather strong connection point that JFK currently does not have.

AA hasn't had the right size fleet for a lot of these markets. The 767-300ER fleet is stretched pretty thin as it is; the 777 is simply too much aircraft and it wasn't until recently they started using the 757 over the pond (and even there, that's a limited subfleet given that they also use them ex-MIA to South America). It most likely became a matter of picking the markets where they could earn the most revenues over upgauging markets that didn't need bigger aircraft to free up additional 767s.


User currently offlinerob2507 From United States of America, joined Jan 2001, 168 posts, RR: 0
Reply 115, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 6 days 4 hours ago) and read 19460 times:

Quoting ckfred (Reply 111):
Here's one issue that the merger would have to deal with, BOS. I know that they are building a connection around the parking garage to connect the US and AA sides of Terminal B. But could you imagine connecting at B, if you had to switch sides? Or how about a gate change due to a delay, and having to walk from one side to the other.

What about putting UA into the current AA or US gates, and AA or US into the new UA gates currently under construction? I have to think that Massport wouldn't want to split up airlines, and this would allow both airlines to have a contiguous presence.


User currently offlineflyinryan99 From United States of America, joined Feb 2001, 2004 posts, RR: 13
Reply 116, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 6 days 4 hours ago) and read 19347 times:

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 110):
Network optimization means you do less overflying of your hubs, not more. If anything longer haul RJ flights from DFW to cities in the SE will be cut in favor of CLT unless those routes have lots of local DFW traffic or lots of traffic to cities not served from CLT. I can use your argument against DFW as well. Saying that DFW will lose flights to ICT, OKC and TUL and that traffic will go to CLT instead. Makes no sense.

While it may make sense in theory about over flying hubs, look at what DL has done. They have cut almost all small cities that have nothing but connections. Only cities with a decent amount of O/D and connections are surviving. You will dilute your yield if you run too many connections with little to no O/D out of your hub. I am going to side with MAH as I could see CLT overall lower in flight frequencies however, they could easily pick up new destinations in which AA already flies but is not served by US. I'm thinking cities like GRR, FWA, TOL will gain a couple of daily flights. While these frequencies will not make up for the cuts they may have in their existing cities, the hub will be strengthened. IMO, having more hubs from a spoke helps the strength of network itself even if it's at lower frequencies.


User currently offlinesccutler From United States of America, joined Jan 2000, 5520 posts, RR: 28
Reply 117, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 6 days 4 hours ago) and read 19093 times:

1. US ain't acquiring AA.

2. I have it on excellent authority that, not only will the combined carrier's HQ be in Texas; the decision has been made that, in order to avoid excessive territoriality among the combined work forces, the new juggernaut airline is to be renamed, "Braniff International Airways."

Remember, you heard it here first!  



...three miles from BRONS, clear for the ILS one five approach...
User currently offlinesouthwest737500 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 118, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 6 days 4 hours ago) and read 18967 times:

What are the chances of a daily AS flight to CLT

User currently offlineYYZbound From Canada, joined Nov 2007, 63 posts, RR: 0
Reply 119, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 6 days 4 hours ago) and read 18944 times:

Quoting ckfred (Reply 107):
And, would Parker take out the first class cabins on the 773s and the trans-con A321s. After all, US doesn't have any 3-class cabins. US has managed to do well without the finicky corporate types and celebrities. So, why does the combined AA/US need those passengers.

There's HUGE amounts of money having contracts with where those premium passengers come from. The studios are required contractually through SAG for instance, to fly celebrities in First class.


User currently offlinePanAmPaul From United States of America, joined Jan 2013, 242 posts, RR: 0
Reply 120, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 6 days 4 hours ago) and read 18932 times:

Quoting skytony (Reply 95):
Maybe they will change the name back to American Airways?

If so, we need to watch this video!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RCnWLR28pfE


User currently offlineLDVAviation From United States of America, joined Dec 2008, 1069 posts, RR: 4
Reply 121, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 6 days 4 hours ago) and read 18903 times:

Quoting PHLwok (Reply 74):
Less clear to me is the PHX situation, as much transcon traffic heading to California from points east can route via DFW, but AA at LAX also can't expand significantly without more terminal capacity, and PHX is a large and fast growing area that they shouldn't cede to WN for O&D traffic reasons. Maybe it becomes more like DCA without the perimeter rule - good connectivity to the rest of the country to support O&D and some regional connections so someone flying DEN-SAN on AA wouldn't have to route via DFW or a RJ on LAX-SAN.

At LAX? The solution may just have presented itself. With US's impending move to T3 and LAWA's recent decision to redevelop T3 as part of the LAX Specific Plan, the opportunity is there for the new AA to takeover and expand into the new T3. (T3 and T4 could be linked by an airside bus until the terminal tram is built.)

While we are speculating, the new AA could also strike a bargain with LAWA to takeover the east side of the South Concourse of the new TBIT. That is the concourse adjacent to T4. LAWA might be willing to consider this once the satellite to the new TBIT or the extension to the new TBIT north concourse are operational. (The satellite is in the planning phase. There will be a connector building between T4 and TBIT.)

Most of the terminal redevelopment at LAX will be taking place in space adjacent to the AA terminal. The new AA will have many options at LAX.

[Edited 2013-02-07 08:41:26]

User currently offlinesccutler From United States of America, joined Jan 2000, 5520 posts, RR: 28
Reply 122, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 6 days 4 hours ago) and read 18787 times:

Quoting ckfred (Reply 107):

But, if the deal goes through, would the advertising change to the new new American, since it would be the new American with a new owner?

Meh.

The "New Owner" of the combined entity will be, predominantly, the stakeholders of AA. When the dust settles, it will (from a shareholders' perspective) be more like AA acquired US/HP. Don't lose sight of which is the tail, and which is the dog.



...three miles from BRONS, clear for the ILS one five approach...
User currently offlinepanamair From United States of America, joined Oct 2001, 4910 posts, RR: 25
Reply 123, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 6 days 4 hours ago) and read 18500 times:
Support Airliners.net - become a First Class Member!

Quoting deltairlines (Reply 114):
until recently they started using the 757 over the pond (and even there, that's a limited subfleet given that they also use them ex-MIA to South America

AA has 18 75Ls (configured for international premium flying) and to date, they have been underutilizing them for their intended missions...many of them end up on domestic and Caribbean runs (I was just on one the other day between JFK and SXM, for example); I don't think the number of frames is a reason for not starting more JFK-Europe flights...


User currently offlineEricR From United States of America, joined Jul 2010, 1904 posts, RR: 1
Reply 124, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 6 days 3 hours ago) and read 18416 times:

The post-merger viewpoints on the PHX hub are too optimistic. The main objective of airline mergers in the U.S. today is to reduce capacity so airlines have the pricing power to become / maintain profitability. This becomes especially important during high fuel prices or economic downturns.

This means removing capacity from the network and vastly reducing and/or eliminating weak hubs. I think the hub is eliminated over the course of time. There are very limited traffic flows that benefit from PHX's existence as a hub and as many have stated, the traffic is lower yield traffic that the combined carrier needs to purge from its network.

DL is in the process of eliminating MEM and slowly CVG. UA is still young in their integration process, but CLE will most likely see reductions and eventual elimination as a hub once UA gets further along in their network integration process and the older gas guzzling ERJs that primarily serve CLE are retired.

Keep in mind it takes time to draw down hubs and is usually done in a stair step format. It took years before AA officially eliminated STL as a hub. But the STL hub was redundant in the AA network back then as much as PHX will be redundant in the combined US/AA network.


User currently offlinebobloblaw From United States of America, joined Jan 2012, 1725 posts, RR: 1
Reply 125, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 6 days 3 hours ago) and read 18337 times:

Quoting flyinryan99 (Reply 116):
While it may make sense in theory about over flying hubs, look at what DL has done.

There has actually been a reduction of that. Especially from UA. From DL there has been some like GRB losing ATL but that is coming back.

Quoting flyinryan99 (Reply 116):
You will dilute your yield if you run too many connections with little to no O/D out of your hub. I am going to side with MAH as I could see CLT overall lower in flight frequencies however, they could easily pick up new destinations in which AA already flies but is not served by US. I'm thinking cities like GRR, FWA, TOL will gain a couple of daily flights

I dont think TOL but I do think GRR could get CLT plus DCA. Your first point is weighed against the cost of the flight too. 50 seat RJs from DFW to SC, GA are not efficient. Unless there is lots of local traffic tp DFW, (which there very well may be), those routes would be candidates for cuts. This is exactly why UA dropped CID-IAH. Route the traffic thru ORD or DEN rather then a long thin RJ route to IAH.

I think it is possible there could be some ORD cuts to cities in the midwest in exchange for 1-2 daily flights to CLT in order to reduce ORD delays and congestion. GRR, FWA, are good candidates.

Also what is happening in ATL will have an impact on CLT.
1. There are only two SE hubs (ATL and CLT)
2. MIA is a NOT a substitute for CLT, plus carribbean LFs are high with decent yields
3. Closing CVG will help CLT a bit, though not that much
4. CLT is not STL in any way shape for form. CLT is a growing city with a vibrant finance industry, STL is not.

The idea that AA will substantially reduce the size of a profitable hub in a rapidly growing region of the country is wrong. I could see PHX lose service more than CLT. Even PHL, while it has international value, has domestic value that is no greater than CLT.


Remember this is A.net. Where a substantial number of posters insisted that DL was going to bid for all or pieces of AA. It never happened as I said it would never happen.


User currently offlineD L X From United States of America, joined May 1999, 11349 posts, RR: 52
Reply 126, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 6 days 3 hours ago) and read 18217 times:

The REAL question is...

if this merger happens, will there then be THREE American Airlines Arenas in the United States?

(Phoenix, Dallas, and Miami)



Send me a PM at http://www.airliners.net/aviation-forums/sendmessage.main?from_username=NULL
User currently offlineckfred From United States of America, joined Apr 2001, 5236 posts, RR: 1
Reply 127, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 6 days 3 hours ago) and read 18186 times:

Quoting LDVAviation (Reply 121):
At LAX? The solution may just have presented itself. With US's impending move to T3 and LAWA's recent decision to redevelop T3 as part of the LAX Specific Plan, the opportunity is there for the new AA to takeover and expand into the new T3. (T3 and T4 could be linked by an airside bus until the terminal tram is built.)

Actually, AA did this, when the former Reno Air operation was in T3, and the rest of AA's operation was in T4. I once got bumped off an LAS-ORD non-stop and rerouted via LAX. Despite the assurance that the bus would come by every few minutes, I would up walking from T3 to T4 and never saw the shuttle bus.


User currently offlineLAXdude1023 From India, joined Sep 2006, 7607 posts, RR: 24
Reply 128, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 6 days 3 hours ago) and read 18146 times:

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 125):
I dont think TOL but I do think GRR could get CLT plus DCA. Your first point is weighed against the cost of the flight too. 50 seat RJs from DFW to SC, GA are not efficient. Unless there is lots of local traffic tp DFW, (which there very well may be), those routes would be candidates for cuts. This is exactly why UA dropped CID-IAH. Route the traffic thru ORD or DEN rather then a long thin RJ route to IAH.

I agree, but pretty much every point that AA serves from DFW to the Southeast has enough O&D to make it work. Had AA still been serving FAY or AGS, I would totally agree that it makes no sense to serve those from DFW when they can be served from CLT since the local market is small. Places like GSO, TYS, CAE, CHS, etc. all have significant O&D to DFW where they can be served at least daily. Places like CHA or MGM may lose DFW service.



Stewed...Lewd...Crude...Irreverent...Belligerent
User currently offlinecommavia From United States of America, joined Apr 2005, 11630 posts, RR: 61
Reply 129, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 6 days 3 hours ago) and read 18053 times:

Quoting usairways85 (Reply 108):
I just looked at a AA's JFK-Europe schedule today. Yes it is a small subset and in the winter season.
Here are the destinations.
LHR
MAN
MAD
MXP
CDG

Plus BCN and ZRH, and during the summer FCO and DUB.

Quoting usairways85 (Reply 108):
I don't know you can simply move US' PHL flts to JFK (AMS, DUB, VCE, etc) and just expect that they will thrive.
Quoting usairways85 (Reply 108):
My point is that yes AA can probably adjust JFK and add some additional markets but PHL has a relatively strong European network that the combined carrier should leverage.

I wholeheartedly agree. You can't move US' PHL hub to JFK and make it work - no way. PHL is a viable hub - no question about it. I was simply stating that in my view there are several markets (again, specifically: FRA, GLA and TLV, and possibly even DME) that could work at JFK post-merger in addition to, not in replacement of, the existing US hub at PHL.

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 110):
Network optimization means you do less overflying of your hubs, not more. If anything longer haul RJ flights from DFW to cities in the SE will be cut in favor of CLT unless those routes have lots of local DFW traffic or lots of traffic to cities not served from CLT. I can use your argument against DFW as well. Saying that DFW will lose flights to ICT, OKC and TUL and that traffic will go to CLT instead. Makes no sense.

Agree, although net-net I suspect network optimization is going to mean far more rationalization in CLT than DFW.

Quoting ckfred (Reply 111):
Here's one issue that the merger would have to deal with, BOS. I know that they are building a connection around the parking garage to connect the US and AA sides of Terminal B. But could you imagine connecting at B, if you had to switch sides? Or how about a gate change due to a delay, and having to walk from one side to the other.

My prediction is that AA and US would consolidate in the current US side of B. With some creative scheduling and reconfiguration, I suspect the combined operation could all fit over there.

Quoting panamair (Reply 123):
AA has 18 75Ls (configured for international premium flying) and to date, they have been underutilizing them for their intended missions...many of them end up on domestic and Caribbean runs (I was just on one the other day between JFK and SXM, for example); I don't think the number of frames is a reason for not starting more JFK-Europe flights...

I believe it's 20 now, not 18. And I think post-merge AA could easily use those 20 to operate the existing AA routes that really need those jets (out of JFK and MIA), but also to replace the longhaul 757 flying US currently does to Europe, since AA's 757s offer a better product than the US longhaul 757s, anyway.

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 128):
I agree, but pretty much every point that AA serves from DFW to the Southeast has enough O&D to make it work. Had AA still been serving FAY or AGS, I would totally agree that it makes no sense to serve those from DFW when they can be served from CLT since the local market is small. Places like GSO, TYS, CAE, CHS, etc. all have significant O&D to DFW where they can be served at least daily. Places like CHA or MGM may lose DFW service.

  

I doubt DFW would lose service to any of the major southeast markets like the ones you listed - GSO, TYS, CAE, CHS, SAV, etc. All of those markets are big enough to support flying to both DFW and CLT. I could, however, see some of those markets losing some frequency in favor of larger, 2-class RJs.


User currently offlineapodino From United States of America, joined Apr 2005, 4279 posts, RR: 6
Reply 130, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 6 days 3 hours ago) and read 17589 times:

I think comparisons between PHX and either CVG or STL are apples to oranges. There are several other factors in play in PHX. One is that PHX is the 11th largest O and D market in the country. There is more O and D in PHX than there is PHL, CLT, DCA (and that includes IAD as well). People have always said the secret to a good hub is a combination of both O and D and connecting traffic. PHX provides that O and D. Also note that with AA, the AAdvantage program will give FF's a lot more options with a bigger network than Dividend Miles ever could, and a bigger network than WN. By comparison, PVD is a bigger O and D market than CVG, so its not hard to see why DL left CVG. Here is a link to a thread with a chart showing the stats, this is from 2009.

http://forum.skyscraperpage.com/showthread.php?t=176627

Of course what blows that up is the fact that LAS is a bigger O and D rlmarket than PHX and US blew that up too. Bottom line though is that no one on A.Net really has any clue how profitable PHX is because the yields are not public information. So it is pure speculation to say that PHX is not high yielding. Certainly its no ORD or DCA or LGA, but is it as low as say MCO or LAS? That may be a stretch. Plus PHX is growing at the moment as well. That bodes well.

One thing I did find interesting is that AA already has hubs in the four biggest O and D markets in the country. Had US kept LAS in tact, the merger would have given them the top five.


User currently offlinecommavia From United States of America, joined Apr 2005, 11630 posts, RR: 61
Reply 131, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 6 days 2 hours ago) and read 17270 times:

Quoting apodino (Reply 130):
I think comparisons between PHX and either CVG or STL are apples to oranges.

Yes and no. Obviously every market is different, but on the flip side some of the issues that hurt CVG and STL would also hurt PHX if a merger takes place.

Quoting apodino (Reply 130):
One is that PHX is the 11th largest O and D market in the country. There is more O and D in PHX than there is PHL, CLT, DCA (and that includes IAD as well). People have always said the secret to a good hub is a combination of both O and D and connecting traffic. PHX provides that O and D.

True, PHX is a large O&D market, but a large portion of that O&D is PHX-destined, seasonal, and leisure. That in and of itself is not really the ideal traffic upon which to build a hub, at least not at the cost levels a new AA would be operating at.

Quoting apodino (Reply 130):
Also note that with AA, the AAdvantage program will give FF's a lot more options with a bigger network than Dividend Miles ever could, and a bigger network than WN.

That's true. AADV and the far broader scope of AA's network - both branded and partner - will definitely have a positive halo effect. Enough of a positive effect to spare PHX substantial reductions in flights and capacity? I doubt it.


User currently offlinefutureorthopod From United States of America, joined Jun 2010, 77 posts, RR: 0
Reply 132, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 6 days 2 hours ago) and read 16698 times:

wow...so now will airfares skyrocket?

User currently offlinerangercarp From United States of America, joined Nov 2009, 144 posts, RR: 0
Reply 133, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 6 days 1 hour ago) and read 16394 times:

Quoting futureorthopod (Reply 132):
wow...so now will airfares skyrocket?

I do not know if I would use the term skyrocket, but fares are most certainly going up.



iwgbtp!
User currently offlineIndustryInsider From United States of America, joined Oct 2010, 28 posts, RR: 0
Reply 134, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 6 days 1 hour ago) and read 16188 times:

Point2point, I'd like to correct one of your statements/questions:

Quoting point2point (Reply 109):
I'm thinking along the lines of probably a smallish detail..... but would the current AA-B6 code share maybe continue if there were a merger?

AA and B6 do NOT have a codeshare agreement in place today.


User currently offlineUA787DEN From United States of America, joined Dec 2012, 420 posts, RR: 0
Reply 135, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 6 days 1 hour ago) and read 16201 times:

Quoting DolphinAir747 (Reply 26):
If this happens, US wouldn't join; US would be absorbed into AA which is already part of 1W.

Actually, there is a chance it will be like the CO/UA merger, or the TWA/AA merger, in which the airline to die switched into the surviving airline's alliance before the merger finalized.


User currently offlineapodino From United States of America, joined Apr 2005, 4279 posts, RR: 6
Reply 136, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 6 days 1 hour ago) and read 16160 times:

Since AA still uses the Sabre Reservations system...how much do you think Doug Parker is shooting himself now for using SHARES instead of Sabre after the US/HP merger? And will the combined carrier go back to Sabre or use SHARES? Personally, since the existing QIK interface can be used with Sabre, and given UA's problems with SHARES, I think Sabre is a no brainer. But I am not DP either.

User currently offlinebobloblaw From United States of America, joined Jan 2012, 1725 posts, RR: 1
Reply 137, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 6 days 1 hour ago) and read 16108 times:

Quoting commavia (Reply 129):

If markets in the SE can support CR7s to DFW, they will stay.


User currently offlinemah4546 From Sweden, joined Jan 2001, 32782 posts, RR: 72
Reply 138, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 6 days 1 hour ago) and read 16106 times:

Quoting panamair (Reply 123):
AA has 18 75Ls (configured for international premium flying) and to date, they have been underutilizing them for their intended missions...many of them end up on domestic and Caribbean runs (I was just on one the other day between JFK and SXM, for example); I don't think the number of frames is a reason for not starting more JFK-Europe flights...

Twenty. AA converted two more for some reason last year. Only ten frames are actively used on long-haul.

BOSCDG - 1

MIAUIO -2
MIABSB - 1
MIAASU - .6
MIASSA - .7
MIAREC - .7

JFKCDG - 1
JFKDUB - 1
JFKMAD - 1
JFKMAN - 1



a.
User currently offlineUA787DEN From United States of America, joined Dec 2012, 420 posts, RR: 0
Reply 139, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 6 days 1 hour ago) and read 15935 times:

Has there been any actual confirmation from official dudes?

User currently offlineairtechy From United States of America, joined Dec 2006, 502 posts, RR: 0
Reply 140, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 6 days 1 hour ago) and read 15998 times:

How is AA going to square away the problem of not being able to fly into TLV. I think US does. Will they just pony up the bucks and solve the problem?

User currently offlineHPRamper From United States of America, joined May 2005, 4058 posts, RR: 8
Reply 141, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 6 days ago) and read 15690 times:

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 25):
They'll still be hubs. They won't stay intact. The fact is that all three US hubs will be hurt by the merger. I could see PHL reduced by maybe one-third at the least; CLT cut by 25%; and PHX, probably cut in half. MIA, JFK, LAX and DFW will be the winners in this merger.

If you cut capacity/flights at PHL, where will they go? Maybe a handful of connections to ORD, and maybe an even smaller handful of international flights to JFK. That would be a heck of a lot less than a third.

Quoting adamh8297 (Reply 28):
WN will be sitting pretty in the Valley of the Sun.

AA would only be cutting connecting capacity. There would still be plenty of flights to effectively compete with WN on an O&D basis.

Quoting Beardown91737 (Reply 31):
AA may have the lead in passengers at LAX, but they aren't that big, maybe 160 flights counting regional. I don't see LCC management adding a lot to LAX when they could have tried a LAX focus city.

LAX can not be an effective omnidirectional superhub just as JFK cannot. They are and will continue to be megafocus cities with a minimum of connecting flights.

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 33):
Where is all that traffic going to go? In to the ether? CLT will doubtless get smaller, but STL is down something like 90 percent from its peak.

Exactly. There was an effective alternate to STL. There is not to CLT.

Quoting usairways85 (Reply 34):
Uh, I'd hardly call JFK and ORD AA fortresses. DFW and MIA yes but certainly not the first two

ORD will get stronger postmerger. JFK could never be a fortress due to the limitations, natural and artificial that are imposed upon it.

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 35):
Even MSP took a big hit after the merger; and that's the type of hit CLT will take - still large and relevant, but nonetheless a shrunken hub.

MSP took a very small hit. It's still mainly a domestic hub with a very strong O&D base.

Quoting tommy767 (Reply 38):
Labor issues will be complicated especially with US/HP not even fully integrated since the merger in 2005.

On the contrary I think labor issues will be resolved rather quickly.

Quoting XT6Wagon (Reply 43):
Lets merge two airlines with massive labor problems still suffering from their last mergers. IT MAKES SO MUCH SENSE.

US having massive labor problems is a gross exaggeration.

Quoting deltairlines (Reply 69):
Phoenix could likely become a CVG type operation - right sized from where it is now.
Quoting deltairlines (Reply 69):
Keep in mind that with a merger, a lot of the large RJ feed at PHX (CR9s are around 40 flights/day) would likely be cut down to help support ORD and LGA where those planes could be better used early on in the merger process (just as we saw post-HP merger with those CR9s quickly making their way into the CLT market).

Number of flights, yes, but PHX will have larger gauge of aircraft whereas CVG is heavily regional. PHX is simply a much larger market. Even CVG is overserved when you look at market size.

Quoting coairman (Reply 75):
I would love to see a AA-US merger hub optimization internal merger document. I bet CLT and PHX are hit the hardest. I think AA's MIA hub will hurt CLT as far as route duplication. PHX will shrink at the benefit of LAX and DFW.

PHX sure. CLT and MIA have very little route duplication. Some Caribbean traffic.

Quoting wn676 (Reply 91):
WN captures a better local traffic ratio and that has been the case for years. It believe it's in the range of 65/35 local to connecting with US having basically the opposite,

They have a better ratio because they don't connect nearly the percentage of passengers that the network carriers do. US and WN have been neck and neck in actual O&D capture in PHX for years.

Quoting ckfred (Reply 107):
What US could do, post merger, is paint the planes in the US livery, replacing US Airways with American, but keep the new AA striped tail.

I think if anything, any change would be small. Perhaps add the US flag logo after the American name on the side, or maybe even just on the sides of the engines.

Quoting ckfred (Reply 107):
And, would Parker take out the first class cabins on the 773s and the trans-con A321s. After all, US doesn't have any 3-class cabins. US has managed to do well without the finicky corporate types and celebrities. So, why does the combined AA/US need those passengers.

I think with the higher labor costs incoming, the new AA would need that revenue base.

Quoting point2point (Reply 109):
I'm thinking along the lines of probably a smallish detail..... but would the current AA-B6 code share maybe continue if there were a merger? Would the new AA need to continue with B6 here?

No. In fact with that new East Coast network, AA could try to squeeze B6.

Quoting apodino (Reply 130):
Of course what blows that up is the fact that LAS is a bigger O and D rlmarket than PHX and US blew that up too.

LAS was more suitable for a redeye hub than PHX and it really was only operated to utilize aircraft. After the merger there were far more profitable routes to use those planes on so LAS got the axe. There is also a lot more competition at LAS than at PHX, where US and WN are basically the whole show.


User currently offlineMaverick623 From United States of America, joined Nov 2006, 5647 posts, RR: 6
Reply 142, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 6 days ago) and read 15220 times:

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 25):
I could see PHL reduced by maybe one-third at the least; CLT cut by 25%; and PHX, probably cut in half. MIA, JFK, LAX and DFW will be the winners in this merger.

Interesting. So the 3 hubs that made record profits are going to be axed, in favor of hubs that lose a billion dollars a quarter?

Just when you think you've heard it all...



"PHX is Phoenix, PDX is the other city" -777Way
User currently offlinecommavia From United States of America, joined Apr 2005, 11630 posts, RR: 61
Reply 143, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 6 days ago) and read 15104 times:

Quoting Maverick623 (Reply 142):
Interesting. So the 3 hubs that made record profits are going to be axed, in favor of hubs that lose a billion dollars a quarter?

First, AA's hubs aren't losing a billion per quarter. Second, US hubs - and indeed the entire US network - is as profitable as it is today because of US' uniquely low costs (particularly labor). Those are gone day 1 of the merger.


User currently offlineER757 From Cayman Islands, joined May 2005, 2525 posts, RR: 7
Reply 144, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 5 days 23 hours ago) and read 14481 times:

Quoting Antoniemey (Reply 90):
The new AA livery and branding will stay. It MIGHT be tweaked, but I doubt it.

   From the moment I first saw it, I thought to myself that the livery was done with a US merger in mind. Sorry to all of you who hope the tail will go away. You'll have to learn to live with it. That's my   

As to the question about US' A350's, I agree with the person who thinks they'll get swapped for NEO's - too small a sub-fleet to keep on order with all the 787 firm and options that AA has.


User currently offlineAeroWesty From United States of America, joined Oct 2004, 20640 posts, RR: 62
Reply 145, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 5 days 23 hours ago) and read 14241 times:

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 138):
Only ten frames are actively used on long-haul.

ORD-MAN going back to daily 2/13/13 from 5x per week, too.



International Homo of Mystery
User currently onlinedeltairlines From United States of America, joined May 1999, 8902 posts, RR: 12
Reply 146, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 5 days 22 hours ago) and read 13899 times:

Quoting HPRamper (Reply 141):
Number of flights, yes, but PHX will have larger gauge of aircraft whereas CVG is heavily regional. PHX is simply a much larger market. Even CVG is overserved when you look at market size.

I agree with this. Part of it will be the need to maintain more diligent CASM controls against Southwest, part of it will be customer preference (why take an RJ over a 737?) and part of it simply the way the networks work in that part of the country - a larger percentage of cities within 2.5 hours of cities can support mainline service than out East, where the population is more dense, but also has more airports to choose from.

Post-merger, I can still see A319s/A320s going to every destination that gets mainline service still; it'll just be 3-4 a day rather than 5-6. The fact that as it stands 70% of the US operation at PHX is still mainline helps it a lot there. Keep in mind that only about 18% of the operation is 50-seaters as well...