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AA/US Impact On JFK  
User currently offlinequestions From Australia, joined Sep 2011, 812 posts, RR: 1
Posted (1 year 8 months 2 weeks 2 days 10 hours ago) and read 8640 times:

*IF* AA and US combine, and PHL's role becomes domestic and international hub and JFK's role focuses on O&D, what impact will that have on space requirements for T8?

33 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineSTT757 From United States of America, joined Mar 2000, 16883 posts, RR: 51
Reply 1, posted (1 year 8 months 2 weeks 2 days 10 hours ago) and read 8621 times:

Quoting questions (Thread starter):
what impact will that have on space requirements for T8?

Pretty much nothing will change, the only thing that's going to change at T-8 is if or when BA moves to T-8 from T-7.



Eastern Air lines flt # 701, EWR-MCO Boeing 757
User currently onlineflyguy1 From United States of America, joined Jun 1999, 1739 posts, RR: 4
Reply 2, posted (1 year 8 months 2 weeks 2 days 9 hours ago) and read 8434 times:

Us air A330s will arrive at JFK.


727, L1011, MD80, A300, 777-200, 737-300, 737-700, 747-400, 757-200, 737-800, A320. E190, E135, 767-200, CRJ9
User currently offlineflyinghippo From United States of America, joined Aug 2005, 703 posts, RR: 1
Reply 3, posted (1 year 8 months 2 weeks 2 days 9 hours ago) and read 8382 times:

Quoting questions (Thread starter):
PHL's role becomes domestic and international hub

Why would PHL be the international hub when AA has a international gateway out of JFK? Also, NYC has a much bigger international traveler population than PHL.


User currently offlineNYCAAer From United States of America, joined Jul 2004, 693 posts, RR: 3
Reply 4, posted (1 year 8 months 2 weeks 2 days 9 hours ago) and read 8294 times:

AA-US would be crazy to downsize JFK in favor of PHL. Although PHL offers more connectivity as a hub, JFK/NYC is one of the top 5 markets in the world for premium first class and business class seats sold. AA has been concentrating on higher-yielding business markets and reducing flying in less profitable or money-losing markets. Yes, AA has dropped some routes from JFK- BRU, SDQ, STI, MBJ, AUA, PUJ, etc. But they are also going after markets with more potential for greater revenue- a second daily GRU, 77Ws on LHR, and in recent years have added MAD, MAN, BCN, MXP, DUB and returned to GIG.

User currently offlinemesaflyguy From United States of America, joined Dec 2012, 3198 posts, RR: 5
Reply 5, posted (1 year 8 months 2 weeks 2 days 9 hours ago) and read 8231 times:
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I am really hoping thI really hope this merger does not happen, but if it is I can't wait to see more US aircraft at JFK. With US assumably moving to T8 and BA eventually moving over, what will happen to T7? It is really a nice terminal and I would hate to see it abandoned.


\________(---)________/ :) World's most beautiful aircraft: 757-200, MD-88/90, E-190, A321
User currently offlinePanAmPaul From United States of America, joined Jan 2013, 242 posts, RR: 0
Reply 6, posted (1 year 8 months 2 weeks 2 days 9 hours ago) and read 8200 times:

I don't see JFK getting downsized; in fact I think PHL will become of secondary importance (but good as a nearby backup).

This is especially true because of connecting oneworld traffic, I would imagine.

Semi-related to this, there are two good FAQs online addressing some related questions

American-US Airways Merger: What Frequent Fliers Need to Know

and

What an American-US Airways Deal Would Mean for Fliers (link not coming through in my post for some reason but it's in the WSJ)


User currently offlinesilentbob From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 2123 posts, RR: 1
Reply 7, posted (1 year 8 months 2 weeks 2 days 8 hours ago) and read 8069 times:

Quoting flyinghippo (Reply 3):
Why would PHL be the international hub when AA has a international gateway out of JFK? Also, NYC has a much bigger international traveler population than PHL.

There is very little competition for the international traffic out of PHL, so it generates a premium for many of the markets served. JFK has significantly more competition for that larger base of travelers. Being the biggest fish in a slightly smaller pond is often extremely profitable.

You will see flights to/from JFK that support the O/D passengers, just like you do from PHL. Connecting passengers from upstate NY and northward will be funneled through JFK and passengers from south of SYR will be funneled through PHL while anyone south of VA will be sent through CLT.


User currently offlineflyinghippo From United States of America, joined Aug 2005, 703 posts, RR: 1
Reply 8, posted (1 year 8 months 2 weeks 2 days 8 hours ago) and read 7980 times:

Quoting silentbob (Reply 7):
There is very little competition for the international traffic out of PHL, so it generates a premium for many of the markets served. JFK has significantly more competition for that larger base of travelers. Being the biggest fish in a slightly smaller pond is often extremely profitable.

You will see flights to/from JFK that support the O/D passengers, just like you do from PHL. Connecting passengers from upstate NY and northward will be funneled through JFK and passengers from south of SYR will be funneled through PHL while anyone south of VA will be sent through CLT.

I still don't see that... what's the point of connecting international travelers via PHL when you already have a decent international presence in JFK? If you're flying on AA from a secondary market to LHR, AA doesn't have to worry about competition from DL at JFK since the traveler is already on a AA flight, regardless if it's being connected via JFK or PHL. (Unless the traveler REALLY wants to fly only on DL, then it won't matter either if the traveler is connecting via JFK or PHL)

I see PHL continue to have direct flights to major international destinations such as LHR, but to cities such as CDG, MAD, they will route through JFK.


User currently offlinedeltaflyertoo From United States of America, joined Nov 2000, 1655 posts, RR: 1
Reply 9, posted (1 year 8 months 2 weeks 2 days 8 hours ago) and read 7971 times:

Quoting flyinghippo (Reply 3):

Why would PHL be the international hub when AA has a international gateway out of JFK? Also, NYC has a much bigger international traveler population than PHL

Just to add to silentbob's above post, in addition to what he stated, AA is also physically constrained at JFK by both slots and gate space. So even if lets say they were the only fish in the sea of NYC O&D with existing infrastructure it would be difficult. So yeah, that said they are probably going to be status quo.

My question is do they make money at JFK. If they do, let it be, but I've always wondered if it maybe best to pull JFK down esp if merger goes through. Its my perception that the LAX/JFK transcons are one sided (i.e. its the LA crowd that demands it but they don't get much on the other end originating in NY to LA).


User currently offlinedavescj From United States of America, joined Jun 2007, 2307 posts, RR: 0
Reply 10, posted (1 year 8 months 2 weeks 2 days 7 hours ago) and read 7820 times:

In any merger, PHL would be of lesser importance than JFK. Let's be realistic.

JFK would probably pick up some flights to Europe. I would expect as well BA/AA anti-trust may move some metal into PHL.

DL would have a chance to add a few flights to PHL as AA right sizes the market.

Dave



Can I have a mojito on this flight?
User currently offlineRL757PVD From United States of America, joined Dec 1999, 4693 posts, RR: 11
Reply 11, posted (1 year 8 months 2 weeks 2 days 7 hours ago) and read 7691 times:

I think you will see PHL remain a key domestic hub, but some international shift to JFK.

Delta manages to operate 2 hubs in NYC Domestic LGA, International JFK and I think AA will closely resemble that with a greater domestic component to PHL though some international will remain to major destinations, some of the more tertiary markets like LIS and GLA may shift.



Experience is what you get when what you thought would work out didn't!
User currently offlinedavescj From United States of America, joined Jun 2007, 2307 posts, RR: 0
Reply 12, posted (1 year 8 months 2 weeks 2 days 7 hours ago) and read 7616 times:

Quoting RL757PVD (Reply 11):
elta manages to operate 2 hubs in NYC Domestic LGA, International JFK

DL also does the PHL CDG (this week). With AA (merged) shifting some flights to JFK, do you think other JV could be added? I'm thinking PHL - AMS for example.

Dave



Can I have a mojito on this flight?
User currently offlinecommavia From United States of America, joined Apr 2005, 11752 posts, RR: 62
Reply 13, posted (1 year 8 months 2 weeks 2 days 7 hours ago) and read 7573 times:

Quoting davescj (Reply 10):
In any merger, PHL would be of lesser importance than JFK. Let's be realistic.

I just don't see how you figure. I'm not sure why people still seem to see this as an "either-or," when if done right, it could - and should - be a "both."

Quoting davescj (Reply 10):
DL would have a chance to add a few flights to PHL as AA right sizes the market.

I doubt it. I don't know why a "new AA" would substantially reduce Atlantic flying at PHL, and even if they did, why that would somehow open up any major opportunity for DL.

Quoting RL757PVD (Reply 11):
Delta manages to operate 2 hubs in NYC Domestic LGA, International JFK and I think AA will closely resemble that with a greater domestic component to PHL though some international will remain to major destinations, some of the more tertiary markets like LIS and GLA may shift.

DL operates two "hubs" in NYC because they have slots at both airports sufficient to do so. AA doesn't, and won't - with or without a merger. But, as I said, AA post-merger wouldn't need to, as it would have a far superior set up just down I-95. PHL isn't nearly as large a local market as NYC, but it is still huge, and it's one that US dominates. Plus, unlike DL's NYC "hub" setup, PHL is an actual megahub that handles both domestic and international traffic, in all directions, throughout the day. DL doesn't have that at JFK/LGA and never will because of the facility/slot limitations and market dynamics.


User currently offlinejustplanenutz From United States of America, joined Feb 2006, 536 posts, RR: 1
Reply 14, posted (1 year 8 months 2 weeks 2 days 7 hours ago) and read 7527 times:

Quoting flyguy1 (Reply 2):
Us air A330s will arrive at JFK.

I would think the opposite--AA 77E's moving out of JFK would be more likely than US 330s coming in.

JFK would serve premium 3-class O&D routes with 77W's, 787s and 321 trancons. An interesting question is how AA will configure the 788 and 789s; 2-class, 3-class or both?

PHL would serve 2-class connecting routes with high-density 77Es and 330s. Given that they would serve different purposes, there could be a fair amount of overlap.

[Edited 2013-02-07 10:59:39]

User currently offlinepoint2point From United States of America, joined Mar 2010, 2764 posts, RR: 1
Reply 15, posted (1 year 8 months 2 weeks 2 days 6 hours ago) and read 7485 times:

Quoting NYCAAer (Reply 4):
AA-US would be crazy to downsize JFK in favor of PHL.
Quoting silentbob (Reply 7):
There is very little competition for the international traffic out of PHL, so it generates a premium for many of the markets served.

I think that PHL will go depending on what their airport managers do there in terms of the renovations and improvements that they want to make at their airport. IIRC, from another thread here a bit back, the fact is that these renovations and improvements were estimated to raise the CPE to somewhere around $32, in which case it would by far make probably it the costliest airport in the U.S., then most carriers would avoid it like the plague. PHL currently experiences it's own version of air traffic hell at times, and even though there is a good O&D there and little competition on most routes, I remember that US went ballistics when these renovations and improvements were announced, and basically stated that PHL would become unworkable for them. I would think that the new AA/US would feel the same way.

Quoting STT757 (Reply 1):
Pretty much nothing will change, the only thing that's going to change at T-8 is if or when BA moves to T-8 from T-7.

Probably so.... there may be some tweaks, upgauges, etc, but JFK is slot restricted. Other than the tweaks and upgauges, the only option that new AA/US can really have here is reducing flights if they so choose, which I don't think that they're going to do. However, will be interesting to watch if the PHL managers do proceed with the full breadth of renovations and improvements that they intended, and how aggressive the new AA/US will be in wanting to acquire slots at JFK.


 



[Edited 2013-02-07 10:57:57]

User currently onlineapodino From United States of America, joined Apr 2005, 4287 posts, RR: 6
Reply 16, posted (1 year 8 months 2 weeks 2 days 6 hours ago) and read 7424 times:

One problem I see with JFK is you don't gain that many slots from US in a merger. Because of that, you are going to need a ton of local O and D to make any new international flight work. JFK does have that. But given the current infastructure and slot situation, you are not going to be able to route a lot of connecting passengers through JFK to connect to the Int'l flights. So while I see JFK gaining a few international flights (TLV is obvious assuming the TW issues can be worked out), the merged carrier is still going to have to rely on PHL for a lot of connecting traffic to some of the smaller destinations (GLA, MAN, etc.).

One other thing this makes me curious about. Presumably this merger, coupled with BA's desires at JFK will probably lead to a T8 buildout, and of course US is going to end up in T8 and BA will move there in the near future (I have heard 2015 for this, which is when BA's T7 lease expires). What does this mean for the future of T7? UA only has PS to SFO and LAX as well as RJ service to IAD left. ANA is the other big carrier left in T7. Could we see a couple of T4 carriers moved to free up room for DL? This will be interesting to watch.


User currently offlineSTT757 From United States of America, joined Mar 2000, 16883 posts, RR: 51
Reply 17, posted (1 year 8 months 2 weeks 2 days 6 hours ago) and read 7308 times:

Quoting apodino (Reply 16):
UA only has PS to SFO and LAX as well as RJ service to IAD left. ANA is the other big carrier left in T7. Could we see a couple of T4 carriers moved to free up room for DL? This will be interesting to watch.

VX probably.



Eastern Air lines flt # 701, EWR-MCO Boeing 757
User currently offlineusairways85 From United States of America, joined Nov 2001, 3429 posts, RR: 7
Reply 18, posted (1 year 8 months 2 weeks 2 days 6 hours ago) and read 7246 times:

I don't understand how people think JFK is going to become this 500 flt/day mega hub for the new carrier.

Quoting justplanenutz (Reply 14):
I would think the opposite--AA 77E's moving out of JFK would be more likely than US 330s coming in.

JFK would serve premium 3-class O&D routes with 77W's, 787s and 321 trancons. An interesting question is how AA will configure the 788 and 789s; 2-class, 3-class or both?

PHL would serve 2-class connecting routes with high-density 77Es and 330s. Given that they would serve different purposes, there could be a fair amount of overlap.

JFK may see some of US' smaller A330s to fly routes that previously haven't worked for AA and PHL may see 777s to places like LHR and MAD that become more important routes than they are now


User currently offlinecommavia From United States of America, joined Apr 2005, 11752 posts, RR: 62
Reply 19, posted (1 year 8 months 2 weeks 2 days 5 hours ago) and read 7104 times:

Quoting justplanenutz (Reply 14):
I would think the opposite--AA 77E's moving out of JFK would be more likely than US 330s coming in.

I think probably some of both. I could see 2-class AA 777s on PHL/CLT-LHR, plus maybe 1 or 2 other PHL-Europe routes, and US A330s on lots of AA routes such as JFK-CDG, JFK-FCO, JFK-BCN, MIA-BCN, etc.

Quoting apodino (Reply 16):
One problem I see with JFK is you don't gain that many slots from US in a merger.

At JFK and LGA, the key benefit of a merger wouldn't be more slots, but the ability to better utilize them.

Quoting usairways85 (Reply 18):
I don't understand how people think JFK is going to become this 500 flt/day mega hub for the new carrier.

It won't be a 500-flight megahub. That will never happen.


User currently offlineHPRamper From United States of America, joined May 2005, 4075 posts, RR: 8
Reply 20, posted (1 year 8 months 2 weeks 2 days 5 hours ago) and read 7098 times:

Quoting flyinghippo (Reply 3):
Why would PHL be the international hub when AA has a international gateway out of JFK? Also, NYC has a much bigger international traveler population than PHL.

AA really only serves NYC out of JFK. PHL serves the entire rest of the country which is indeed a far larger market than NYC.

Quoting flyinghippo (Reply 8):
I still don't see that... what's the point of connecting international travelers via PHL when you already have a decent international presence in JFK?

You can indeed do both.

Quoting davescj (Reply 10):
In any merger, PHL would be of lesser importance than JFK. Let's be realistic.

That is a completely unrealistic opinion.

Quoting commavia (Reply 13):
I just don't see how you figure. I'm not sure why people still seem to see this as an "either-or," when if done right, it could - and should - be a "both."

   Well-put, as usual.


User currently onlinecosyr From United States of America, joined Jul 2012, 401 posts, RR: 0
Reply 21, posted (1 year 8 months 2 weeks 2 days 3 hours ago) and read 6246 times:

My dream would be if PHL would eventually become an O&D city in general. Not having the unnecessary connecting traffic there could really ease conditions between NYC and DC. If traffic would drop enough, I know it will still be considered one airspace due to the proximity of so many airports, but maybe DC won't have the domino effect from NYC, or vice versa.

I'm more curious about what will happen to DCA. I bet one of the condisions by DOJ/DOT would be to give up some DCA slots.


User currently offlineusairways85 From United States of America, joined Nov 2001, 3429 posts, RR: 7
Reply 22, posted (1 year 8 months 2 weeks 2 days 2 hours ago) and read 6004 times:

Quoting cosyr (Reply 21):
My dream would be if PHL would eventually become an O&D city in general. Not having the unnecessary connecting traffic there could really ease conditions between NYC and DC. If traffic would drop enough, I know it will still be considered one airspace due to the proximity of so many airports, but maybe DC won't have the domino effect from NYC, or vice versa.

Taking PHL out of the Northeast JFK/LGA/EWR/TEB/PHL/BWI/DCA/IAD equation will do little to ease air traffic congestion


User currently offlinejayunited From United States of America, joined Jan 2013, 982 posts, RR: 2
Reply 23, posted (1 year 8 months 2 weeks 2 days 2 hours ago) and read 5951 times:

I think the impact on JFK all depends on how many slots AA is still holding on to. Over the past few years AA's presence at JFK has been shrinking but I think that if this merger goes through AA will look to take on Delta at JFK and United in the over all New York market. While PHL will always be an important market it will never be JFK and if American has held on to some of their unused slots we might see some resources shifted away from PHL in favor of JFK. I think the years of AA reducing service at JFK are over and if this merger goes through AA will want to increase their service at JFK.

I know US Airways enthusiast will disagree with my view but AA is itching to roar back into the JFK market. But to do this they are going to need airplanes and since most of the airplanes AA has on order are supposed to replace older aircraft they are going to need airplanes US Airways will supply them with the aircraft at the expense of PHL. But as I said before I still think PHL will be a very important HUB in their network.


User currently offlineFreshSide3 From United States of America, joined Nov 2012, 251 posts, RR: 0
Reply 24, posted (1 year 8 months 2 weeks 2 days 2 hours ago) and read 5936 times:
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I suspect that EWR will be down to a small select amount of flights, much like the UA operation at JFK. Though slightly larger than UA/JFK.

[Edited 2013-02-07 15:15:37]

25 Post contains images flyby519 : As evident by AA recently giving VX some slots and gates at EWR
26 dirtyfrankd : What effect would the merger have on LGA? I've seen on this forum that US still has many unused slots at LGA, is that true? Would a merger allow the n
27 IrishAyes : DL and US swapped their slots between LGA and DCA, a strategic and profitable move that is already paying major dividends towards revenue performance
28 PanAmPaul : If AA follows the pattern of other 787 operators, it will be business, premium economy, and economy. Today, the question is really "3 class or 4" giv
29 mah4546 : All but one which were unused. I don't see much shrinking at EWR.
30 GSPflyer : Don't see too much happening at PHL/JFK, other than; Larger equipment/more frequency between PHL and OW hubs, such as LHR, MAD, to take advantage of c
31 IrishAyes : If memory serves me correctly, the AA 787s will indeed feature the new First product. I agree, the inconsistency is annoying. However, per US standar
32 jc2354 : Couldn't agree more. Although they are very close in distance, they serve completely different markets. Hopefully, they will recognize the jewel at J
33 Post contains links jetblueguy22 : Please continue the conversation in the master thread AA/US Merger Impact Master Thread (by jetblueguy22 Feb 7 2013 in Civil Aviation) Blue
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