Moderators From United States of America, joined Apr 2004, 459 posts, RR: 0 Posted (3 months 1 week 5 days 22 hours ago) and read 23632 times:
AIRLINERS.NET CREW FORUM MODERATOR
in order to consolidate the AA/US merger threads (and after input from users, which we highly appreciate) the moderators decided to start separate threads each discussing one aspect of the AA/US merger and its impact to both the industry and the two airlines involved.
Please continue discussing this hot news in their individual official threads:
AeroWesty From United States of America, joined Oct 2004, 18835 posts, RR: 64 Reply 3, posted (3 months 1 week 5 days 21 hours ago) and read 23247 times:
Okay, let's try this one again.
Does anyone have any opinion or historical facts to share on what impact the AA/US merger will have on the DCA beyond perimeter routes? Both airlines have flights which take advantage of exemptions to the rule.
Will whichever airline is regarded as the acquiring airline matter?
What are the odds that any of these flights will be an issue in the release of DCA slots which is expected in order for the merger to gain regulatory approval?
PHLJJS From United States of America, joined Oct 2005, 412 posts, RR: 0 Reply 4, posted (3 months 1 week 5 days 20 hours ago) and read 22940 times:
Quoting jfk787nyc (Reply 2): What will happen to PHL-TLV if American Airlines takes over as owner of US Airways? Any idea if American Airlines would be able to fly there and if American Airlines would launch MIA-TLV after.
I think PHL-TLV is very safe. It does very well.
The PHL-Asia flights that the Philadelphia Mayor, airport officials, etc have been begging US to start for the last few years likely won't happen though. I see those going to JFK.
STT757 From United States of America, joined Mar 2000, 16259 posts, RR: 52 Reply 5, posted (3 months 1 week 5 days 20 hours ago) and read 22798 times:
Quoting jfk787nyc (Reply 2): What will happen to PHL-TLV if American Airlines takes over as owner of US Airways? Any idea if American Airlines would be able to fly there and if American Airlines would launch MIA-TLV after.
AA is the surving company, they still have the judgement against them in Israel. So unless they back track and pay the judgement, something AA hasn't done in the past 13 years, they're not going to fly to TLV. They pay the judgement or cut the route, we had a thread about a year or two ago discussing the former TWA employee's judgement against AA. With interest it's been mentioned to be upwards of $20 million, perhaps $30 million.
My money is on "American Airways" being the name for the combined carrier, leaving no "surviving" carrier so to speak. A holding company will be created (American Airways) with subsidiary-American Airlines and subsidiary-US Airways operating under the umbrella of American Airways. Much like Continental taking over United, the stronger brand-name will be kept (American), and we will have many discussion of "sub-AA this" and "sub-US that" until the final bits of the airlines are finally combined years down the road.
commavia From United States of America, joined Apr 2005, 10190 posts, RR: 62 Reply 7, posted (3 months 1 week 5 days 19 hours ago) and read 22558 times:
Since we're treating this as if it's already happened, and because I put my domestic predictions primarily with the hub discussion, here are my predictions on the international network ...
Atlantic: some shifting and optimization among hubs/gateways; 1 daily FRA and seasonal GLA flights shifted from PHL to JFK (as 757s), and JFK also picks up 1 daily flight to TLV; CLT-FCO shifted to MIA-MXP and seasonal CLT-DUB ended entirely; PHL/CLT-FRA each lose 1 daily and PHL-MUC/ZRH exited entirely (due to dependence on Star connections); seasonal PHL-ATH market exited entirely (due to poor economy) while PHL-BCN and CLT-MAD upgraded from seasonal to year-round
Pacific: little direct impact from merger, beyond US bringing feed and connectivity from US hubs and strength markets to AA Asia-bound flights instead of onto United codeshare flights; may provide marginal boost to NRT/China flying; longer-term, AA/JL JV adds daily JL 787 on PHL-NRT
Latin America: little change beyond CLT losing GIG and likely GRU flying and some Caribbean weekend flying with that capacity shifted to MIA, although CLT retains substantial capacity to major markets (e.g., CUN, AUA, PUJ, SJU, STT, MBJ, etc.)
chepos From Puerto Rico, joined Dec 2000, 5968 posts, RR: 12 Reply 9, posted (3 months 1 week 5 days 19 hours ago) and read 22460 times:
PHL/CLT- FRA is currently at one daily flight (it's only twice daily in the summer). If this merger goes through it would be interesting to see if BA returns to CLT, I would expect LH to exit CLT. I just don't see the CLT-MAD as going year round, maybe I'm wrong.
Cubsrule From United States of America, joined May 2004, 21240 posts, RR: 19 Reply 11, posted (3 months 1 week 5 days 18 hours ago) and read 22240 times:
Quoting commavia (Reply 7): Latin America: little change beyond CLT losing GIG and likely GRU flying and some Caribbean weekend flying with that capacity shifted to MIA,
I think CLT-GRU can work with more appropriate timing; I view it as similar to DTW-GRU or ORD-GRU. It's likely a smaller local market than either, but it's much better positioned for connections and AA is much stronger with Brasil point of sale traffic than either UA or DL.
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
AVLAirlineFreq From United States of America, joined Jun 2008, 787 posts, RR: 0 Reply 12, posted (3 months 1 week 5 days 17 hours ago) and read 21853 times:
I'd love to see an analysis by someone of...
How many airports are served by both US and AA?
How many are served by only US or only AA?
How many are likely to pick up new hub connections?
How many are likely to lose hub connections through consolidation?
brilondon From Canada, joined Aug 2005, 3172 posts, RR: 1 Reply 13, posted (3 months 1 week 5 days 16 hours ago) and read 21807 times:
Quoting thorntot (Reply 6): My money is on "American Airways" being the name for the combined carrier, leaving no "surviving" carrier so to speak. A holding company will be created (American Airways) with subsidiary-American Airlines and subsidiary-US Airways operating under the umbrella of American Airways. Much like Continental taking over United, the stronger brand-name will be kept (American), and we will have many discussion of "sub-AA this" and "sub-US that" until the final bits of the airlines are finally combined years down the road.
No, I think it will be known as American and the Airlines/Airways will only be in the official name, but will become "American" as the marketing name like most people refer to most of the airlines now anyways. Hence the "American" and no mention of AA on the new livery.
usairways85 From United States of America, joined Nov 2001, 3097 posts, RR: 8 Reply 14, posted (3 months 1 week 5 days 16 hours ago) and read 21721 times:
Quoting commavia (Reply 7): Atlantic: some shifting and optimization among hubs/gateways; 1 daily FRA and seasonal GLA flights shifted from PHL to JFK (as 757s), and JFK also picks up 1 daily flight to TLV; CLT-FCO shifted to MIA-MXP and seasonal CLT-DUB ended entirely; PHL/CLT-FRA each lose 1 daily and PHL-MUC/ZRH exited entirely (due to dependence on Star connections); seasonal PHL-ATH market exited entirely (due to poor economy) while PHL-BCN and CLT-MAD upgraded from seasonal to year-round
I think the dependence on PHL-FRA is shifted to PHL-LHR with at least 3 daily not sure how it would play out between AA/US and BA.
Possibly double daily PHL-MAD.
PHL-ATH is definitely gone.
I think PHL-NRT and HKG are definitely in the cards
AA may be the suriving "name" but isn't the leadership supposed to be predominantly US? They may make the case to put an end to the TLV issue because they see the $$. I suspect PHL-TLV is upgraded to 772 rather than double daily and then JFK-TLV added.
simairlinenet From United States of America, joined Oct 2005, 813 posts, RR: 2 Reply 15, posted (3 months 1 week 5 days 16 hours ago) and read 21529 times:
Quoting commavia (Reply 7): PHL-MUC/ZRH exited entirely (due to dependence on Star connections)
Really? US Airways has been in MUC since the late '90s. Yes, it was helped by an odd codeshare with Deutsche BA, but they kept it through the downturn, Deutsche BA's changes, and before they joined Star Alliance.
ouboy79 From United States of America, joined Nov 2001, 3997 posts, RR: 23 Reply 18, posted (3 months 1 week 5 days 14 hours ago) and read 20964 times:
A lot of the focus seems to be on specific international points, but very little on domestic points. I would almost expect that the new AA will go through an add a second hub option to every airport that is currently served by only one.
Any opinion/comment posted is that of my own and not that of Southwest Airlines Co.
FreshSide3 From United States of America, joined Nov 2012, 204 posts, RR: 0 Reply 20, posted (3 months 1 week 5 days 13 hours ago) and read 20822 times:
Quoting commavia (Reply 7): PHL-AND OLD: Munich - Riem (MUC / EDDM) (closed), Germany">MUC/ZRH exited entirely (due to dependence on Star connections)
Quoting simairlinenet (Reply 15): Really? US Airways has been in AND OLD: Munich - Riem (MUC / EDDM) (closed), Germany">MUC since the late '90s. Yes, it was helped by an odd codeshare with Deutsche BA, but they kept it through the downturn, Deutsche BA's changes, and before they joined Star Alliance.ZRH, maybe. AA flies JFK-ZRH right now.
I think PHL-AND OLD: Munich - Riem (MUC / EDDM) (closed), Germany">MUC will stay, but PHL-ZRH is going to go. Better to use the plane for Budapest(from either ORD or JFK) since there is no DL or MA.
Much will depend on what Qatar Airways does. For those of you who don't know already, QR is planning to put on JFK-AND CURRENT: Athens - Eleftherios Venizelos (Spata) (ATH / LGAV), Greece">ATH, which is a bit of an amomoly, since neither city is a hub for them. However, they have been dragging their feet on this. Right now should be the time to start loading the flight into inventory, to start selling for the peak summer season. Yet they haven't. With this in mind, it's highly likely they will turn around and decide NOT do it.
If QR is on, then it's likely AA/US will give up on AND CURRENT: Athens - Eleftherios Venizelos (Spata) (ATH / LGAV), Greece">ATH forever, just like UA did last year. If they are off, then AA/US should keep the service----but out of another hub. PHL is OK, but synergy too weak compared to JFK(or ORD)-AND CURRENT: Athens - Eleftherios Venizelos (Spata) (ATH / LGAV), Greece">ATH.
Quoting airbazar (Reply 8): I can't see PHL-LIS surviving. At best it will be shifted to JFK-LIS. I would love to see them try something out of the box like BOS-LIS.
Philly is also weak here, too. Even more so. New York is do-able, but then you are directly competing against existing TP/UA flights. BOS-LIS is good. Or perhaps even service to Terceira, Azores Islands(TER). Many people that go to LIS are connecting there, and then turning around, and going west. They get the people to where they need to be AND burn less fuel on BOS(or JFK) to TER.
FreshSide3 From United States of America, joined Nov 2012, 204 posts, RR: 0 Reply 21, posted (3 months 1 week 5 days 13 hours ago) and read 20652 times:
Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 17): I agree PHL-NRT is a distinct possibility. PHL-HKG is a nonstarter. The market isnt there.
True........there is enough Asia(as a continent) demand, but not any one strong city from PHL. But if you have to have any Asian hub to represent PHL traffic, NRT is the one........lots of connection options on AA partner JAL.
Sounds like a good idea.....but we need to see how the Iberia situation plays out, before adding the second flight. We can get a better gauge on it once IB figures out which inter-Europe flights they will have.
(1) Making the JFK-MAN trip a thru trip from AUS.
(2) More Puerto Rico in the winter
(3) One seasonal summer Europe trip out of STL, perhaps 4x/week to LHR. Good feeder to BA's hub.
FWAERJ From United States of America, joined Jun 2006, 3172 posts, RR: 1 Reply 22, posted (3 months 1 week 5 days 12 hours ago) and read 20264 times:
First, a little history of AA and US at my hometown airport: With service dating back to the PI DAY hub in the mid-1980s, US left FWA and many other small Midwestern airports in 2004 as part of the broader PIT dehubbing. However, after over 30 years serving FWA (first with 727s, then F100s and ATRs, and now ERJs), AA/Eagle remains strong at FWA with service to ORD and DFW (the FWA-DFW route turns 13 this year).
I see this as the chance where the merged AA/US finally launches FWA-PHL, FWA-CLT, and potentially FWA-DCA as American Eagle (or whatever they want to call the regional arm) routes. All three cities have close ties to FWA: Wells Fargo and Lincoln Financial have large presences in FWA, PHL, and CLT, along with many other companies. There are also a lot of people from the PHL area that live in FWA now, likely due in part to Lincoln Financial. As for FWA-DCA, there is a huge untapped O&D market with many local ties (even moreso than NYC) that currently has to connect at ORD or DTW or use another airport with nonstop DC-area service.
From FWA, I could see AA/US adding one daily flight each to CLT and either DCA or PHL (initially a CR2 or ER4 for PHL and DCA; 70-seaters for CLT to compete with the likely upgrade of DL's FWA-ATL to larger aircraft) to start to complement the 3-4 daily ORD and 2 daily DFW flights. If successful initially (and I think it would be), FWA-PHL/CLT could go double-daily, though DCA would get larger aircraft in lieu of higher frequency due to slot controls. As for the existing Eagle routes from FWA, I see a bright future for them as well. I could see DFW being upgraded to larger aircraft for sure (either MQ CR7s moved from ORD as RW takes over 70-seat ORD flying or CR7s/CR9s/E-Jets from the pre-merger US regional partners) and potentially an ORD flight or two.
And I think that it's not just FWA that will get tapped into the PMUS (is it too early to start using that term?) network: Many other cities abandoned by US in the wake of the PIT dehubbing that still have a strong Eagle presence like GRR, PIA, and EVV will likely see service to PMUS hubs, but mostly to CLT as PHL has capacity issues and DCA is slot-controlled. With DL adding ATL back to PMNW cities like GRB and PIA, the merged AA/US needs to add CLT service to smaller Midwestern cities to compete with the world's single largest airline hub. And I wouldn't be surprised to see cities not currently served by either AA or US, like SBN, YNG, and LAN, added to a mix of PMAA and PMUS hubs.
pvd757 From United States of America, joined Aug 2003, 3375 posts, RR: 18 Reply 23, posted (3 months 1 week 5 days 12 hours ago) and read 20241 times:
PVD-DFW could come back in a US-AA merger. Not sure PVD-ORD or PVD-MIA would make the cut, but DFW seems like a solid candidate. US has plenty of gates and ticket counter space at PVD, so any new flights could easily operate without increasing overhead.
jfk777 From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 7345 posts, RR: 7 Reply 24, posted (3 months 1 week 5 days 12 hours ago) and read 20215 times:
Quoting commavia (Reply 7): Latin America: little change beyond CLT losing GIG and likely GRU flying and some Caribbean weekend flying with that capacity shifted to MIA, although CLT retains substantial capacity to major markets (e.g., CUN, AUA, PUJ, SJU, STT, MBJ, etc.)
If CLT looses GIG then is DFW loosing GRU ? No way, CLT can be a complement to Miami, JFK and DFW asn an additional gateway to Brazil. AA would be wise to use CLT the way Delta uses Atlanta for international flights. AA needs to own Brazil the way Cathay owns Hong Kong. ORD to GRU needs to happen too why should United fly to Sao Paulo and not AA from ORD ?
25 commavia: Huh? What does one have at all to do with the other?
26 LHCVG: Going point by point, in no particular order of importance: 1. My guess is the SAN and LAS flights are safe, as is the legacy AA LAX. The question to
27 United_fan: I'm hoping ROC gets mainline back . All we have now is 1 A319 to/from CLT . A n/s to DFW again would be nice. Our MQ CR7 flight ended a few years back
28 af086: CLT-GIG already works. Why would they axe that? It is consolidated and got upgraded during the summer season to the 332 for the first time given the
29 PHX787: Lets not forget PHX-Asia route that the locals here are trying to get!
30 mah4546: What about it? It's even more unlikely to happen under an AA/US merger than if US remains alone.
31 AirDance: GRR currently has six flights a day to ORD on American Connection and three flights a day to DFW on American Eagle. Could we see capacity on these cu
32 FWAERJ: PHL is capacity-constrained, so the merged AA/US would have to choose PHL routes wisely (and DCA even more, as it's slot-controlled). CLT has no such
33 bobloblaw: Finally an A.netter who sees CLT opportunities. Most here can't wait to close CLT leaving ATL as the only hub in a catchment area of over 35m people.
34 jfk777: Because USairways had the vision to start its own servie to Brazil and NOT wait until AA did it for them. Why would any one think killing a profitabl
35 FWAERJ: Thanks... but you forgot to make that "35 million people and growing". Growth is the key word here, and the word that will keep CLT a viable and thri
36 flyinryan99: There are plenty of opportunities that could come to CLT for increased destinations (maybe not increased flights though). I think there are a few des
37 crAAzy: I can see a combined AA/US keeping a few select Caribbean or Central American flying out of CLT but I doubt we'll see deep S. America remain when AA
38 LAXdude1023: No, I dont think anyone credible actually believes the hub is going to be shut down outright. What were questioning is whether there is a need for a
39 AeroWesty: Thanks very much for your insightful reply. I realize that the DCA beyond perimeter route authorities have come about over time via various means, an
40 usairways85: These work because the ton of capacity US routes through CLT. If US/AA axe any of that GIG/GRU become tougher to turn a profit. Not really. US choose
41 bobloblaw: I agree that the GIG frequencies could be better used for more MIA-Northern Brazil. Why Europe? What does AA bring that makes AA want to move Europe
42 Cubsrule: Doesn't non-GRU Brasil have available frequencies? True, but US doesn't need 7 daily CLT-PIT flights to be a viable option for PIT-GRU traffic. Four
43 LAXdude1023: I never said that CLT-Caribbean will cease to exist, Ive always said that CLT-Caribbean will be the major markets only (SJU, MBJ, CUN, PUJ, AUA, etc.
44 crAAzy: I don't think it's a question of giving up the Southeast/Midwest markets to DL at ATL. They certainly don't want to do that at all. It's a question o
45 RyanairGuru: The big check mark for CLT here is airport costs. If we assume that a lot of the connecting leisure traffic to the Caribbean is relatively low yieldi
46 LHCVG: Absolutely! I don't think they necessarily have to remain as-is either, where say a DCA-PHX just switches colors to another carrier. So it could be g
47 yellowtail: As there is no AA/US Merger Impact: Pax thread, i shall post it here. Does wither carrier loose some pax by merging? For example, a AA adverse pax who
48 c172akula: I'm hearing quite a few rumours about AA pulling the plug on DFW-YYC (as early as September). WS has announced that this will be one of their new rout
49 shamrock604: I dont see why CLT-DUB is such an obvious one to scrap. Essentially, the Dublin route was a way to get extra utilisation out of a domestic 757 that w
50 LHCVG: You win some, you lose some. Take DCA-ORD for example: there will be more here because of the US fliers who previously had to take UA to ORD. Then yo
51 bobloblaw: From who? I bet there is a lot of oil related traffic. Does AA codeshare with WS? Actually yeah, it is. I bet US is highly profitable from CLT to Car
52 mah4546: No need. There is an abundance of unused non-GIG/GRU frequencies already, both unavailable currently and opening up this year. AA will be applying fo
53 yellowtail: Also, quite a bit of the YYC-DFW traffic goes on to places like SJO, GUA, BZE etc
54 af086: Yes. AA can start new services from anywhere in the US to anywhere in Brazil (but GRU) immediately if they feel like. US´ service to GIG does not ne
55 c172akula: Internal folks, and I do believe that WS and AA have started some codeshares on certain flights. I don't know if the DFW-YYC flight is one of them cu
56 commavia: Let's forget it. At least for years. Not going to happen. Huh??? What's profitable now very well may not be post-merger. Shuttling cheap fares betwee
57 mah4546: AA is not ending DFWYYC; but WS, which does codeshare with AA, will join it on DFWYYC in the late spring. Annoucement Monday. No, there isn't whatsoe
58 LAXdude1023: Part of me is a bit confused on this one. Dont get me wrong, Im thrilled to see a new airline here. That said DFW-YYC is about 75 PDEW and is smaller
59 crAAzy: ORF-MIA has been a solid route at AA for years and is a route that is heavily utilized by military/government traffic into Miami and onwards into Sou
60 RyanairGuru: I agree. In 2013 AA would be stupid to launch a host of RJ flying into small South East/Mid Atlantic markets, as you say it would be a fast way to lo
61 bobloblaw: Cost. Longer stage length on a RJ is a recipe for losing money. Rationalization means not overflying your own hubs. Well not DFW. I am not interested
62 MCOflyer: I see routes to and from MCO growing as MCO has a lot of traffic to offer to hubs. As for CLT, I see: Growth. I see more routes cut from PHL with them
63 N908AW: But even then, wouldn't most of those "unique connections" be either demanded enough to warrant a flight from CLT (which has far more western connect
64 mah4546: They are all good local markets, and they are good feeders for the MIA Caribbean market. ORF, RIC, and SDF are high fare local markets from Miami wit
65 crAAzy: Unless that flying is contracted out at a cheaper price. Not true when you have multiple hubs servicing the same catchment areas with different missi
66 SANFan: I needless to say am curious (and a bit concerned) about the current SAN-DCA flight on US. This route, like the AA LAX-DCA one, were part of last yea
67 AeroWesty: 'fan, you were in the back of my mind whilst typing up my original post. I'm going to have to do some research on how each series of exemptions came a
68 strfyr51: I SERIOUSLY doubt PHL-Asia at all, what I would bet is PHL-LAX-NRT, OR PHL-LAX -HKG/ mainland China. I do not see an overfly of a west coast Hub as I
69 mah4546: Traffic statistics proove otherwise. Philadelphia-Asia is absolutely large enough for a daily non-stop.
70 WAC: CLT will become the MEM of AA/US...slowly de-hubbed...no real reason for it with JFK-PHL-DCA
71 capitalflyer: I would say the odds are really good that we will have a feeding frenzy in a few months with a bunch of slots available. On another thread a poster c
72 mah4546: Yeah, that's pretty much never going to happen. Why do people love to forget that Dulles serves northern Virginia - one of the most densely populated
73 capitalflyer: And DCA is located in Arlington, the densest part of NOVA. The combined airline will fly to just DFW, CLT, MIA, and LAX. I hardly see this as any kin
74 AeroWesty: And as we know, a.net loves the smell of blood swirling in the Jet-A in the morning! I don't think AA's IAD station is in danger of closing. AA has a
75 southwest737500: They'll be a reduction but come on think for a second that will most likely NOT happen
76 crAAzy: I'm not sure ... it's got to be a combination of not knowing the area and thinking no one wants/can compete against UA there. A US/AA merger is going
77 EricR: Surprised no one has brought up the return of AA to DME via either ORD, JFK, MIA.
78 PHX787: Why? BA 288/289 is not about US (BA is not Starr Alliance); it's about the fact that this flight is posting awesome load factors every day. There's a
79 FreshSide3: Especially since UA gave up on DME. My guess is ORD would be the best, since you already have service on Russian carriers at JFK/MIA to MOW airports
80 mah4546: So? How is that relevant? There is good demand between Phoenix and the UK, as well as Germany. It makes sense the flight fills. The local market is s
81 commavia: I think that is highly, highly unlikely. IAD serves a market distinct and different from DCA. There is still a compelling business reason to serve th
82 ABQopsHP: Exactly! That would be a stupid move, to dehub CLT. AA has had a large hole in the route structure ever since they shuttered the BNA and RDU hubs. CL
83 KBUF: This is as good a chance as any for BUF to get AA mainline back. They'd probably have to bring back BUF-DFW and/or start BUF-MIA, though (currently, B
84 SANFan: Interesting post. I'm curious why you say, "I think SAN is toast." And yes, I'm sure someone else would love to fly it -- particularly a certain airl
85 CIDFlyer: if anyone seriously believes this then they need to look at a map. JFK-PHL-DCA are nowhere near CLT, and for that matter neither is MIA, ORD or DFW.
86 PHX787: It's growing but slowly. The demand itself is growing. I ran into a contact of mine who actually asked me to sign something to give to the Japanese c
87 CIDFlyer: I also see CLT gaining some flights to some stronger AA stations in the great lakes/midwest area. Places like PIA/CID/CMI/FWA etc and also places like
88 ckfred: Has the judgment been at all addressed in the bankruptcy proceedings? Considering that AA backed off trying to add Latin American service out of ORD,
89 mah4546: Except it is not. Miami and Philadelphia will have service to two or three cities in Asia before Phoenix has service to one. Miami has the benefit of
90 FreshSide3: It would be interesting to hear what would justify having STL-PVG service......it doesn't appear that it would be a viable route, at least on the sur