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AA/US Merger Impact: Routes  
User currently offlineModerators From United States of America, joined Apr 2004, 509 posts, RR: 0
Posted (1 year 5 months 3 weeks 2 days 19 hours ago) and read 26082 times:
AIRLINERS.NET CREW
FORUM MODERATOR

Dear All,

in order to consolidate the AA/US merger threads (and after input from users, which we highly appreciate) the moderators decided to start separate threads each discussing one aspect of the AA/US merger and its impact to both the industry and the two airlines involved.

Please continue discussing this hot news in their individual official threads:

AA/US Merger Impact: Fleet
AA/US Merger Impact: Hubs
AA/US Merger Impact: Employees
AA/US Merger Impact: HQ
A/US Merger Impact: Livery
AA/US Merger Impact: Unions
AA/US Merger Impact: Routes (THIS THREAD ONLY)
AA/US Merger Impact: Inflight Service

Enjoy & have a nice weekend!

The Airliners.net Moderator crew


Please use moderators@airliners.net to contact us.
252 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineapjung From United States of America, joined Aug 2002, 116 posts, RR: 0
Reply 1, posted (1 year 5 months 3 weeks 2 days 19 hours ago) and read 26094 times:

I hope AA would have the foresight to add the PHX-MSY route that HP abruptly canceled just before Hurricane Katrina made landfall and never resumed when they merged with US.


Andy P. Jung
User currently offlinejfk787nyc From United States of America, joined Apr 2007, 812 posts, RR: 2
Reply 2, posted (1 year 5 months 3 weeks 2 days 18 hours ago) and read 25920 times:

What will happen to PHL-TLV if American Airlines takes over as owner of US Airways? Any idea if American Airlines would be able to fly there and if American Airlines would launch MIA-TLV after.

User currently offlineAeroWesty From United States of America, joined Oct 2004, 20394 posts, RR: 62
Reply 3, posted (1 year 5 months 3 weeks 2 days 18 hours ago) and read 25699 times:

Okay, let's try this one again.


Does anyone have any opinion or historical facts to share on what impact the AA/US merger will have on the DCA beyond perimeter routes? Both airlines have flights which take advantage of exemptions to the rule.

Will whichever airline is regarded as the acquiring airline matter?

What are the odds that any of these flights will be an issue in the release of DCA slots which is expected in order for the merger to gain regulatory approval?



International Homo of Mystery
User currently offlinePHLJJS From United States of America, joined Oct 2005, 417 posts, RR: 0
Reply 4, posted (1 year 5 months 3 weeks 2 days 17 hours ago) and read 25394 times:

Quoting jfk787nyc (Reply 2):
What will happen to PHL-TLV if American Airlines takes over as owner of US Airways? Any idea if American Airlines would be able to fly there and if American Airlines would launch MIA-TLV after.

I think PHL-TLV is very safe. It does very well.

The PHL-Asia flights that the Philadelphia Mayor, airport officials, etc have been begging US to start for the last few years likely won't happen though. I see those going to JFK.


User currently offlineSTT757 From United States of America, joined Mar 2000, 16825 posts, RR: 51
Reply 5, posted (1 year 5 months 3 weeks 2 days 16 hours ago) and read 25250 times:

Quoting jfk787nyc (Reply 2):
What will happen to PHL-TLV if American Airlines takes over as owner of US Airways? Any idea if American Airlines would be able to fly there and if American Airlines would launch MIA-TLV after.

AA is the surving company, they still have the judgement against them in Israel. So unless they back track and pay the judgement, something AA hasn't done in the past 13 years, they're not going to fly to TLV. They pay the judgement or cut the route, we had a thread about a year or two ago discussing the former TWA employee's judgement against AA. With interest it's been mentioned to be upwards of $20 million, perhaps $30 million.



Eastern Air lines flt # 701, EWR-MCO Boeing 757
User currently offlinethorntot From United States of America, joined Aug 2009, 52 posts, RR: 0
Reply 6, posted (1 year 5 months 3 weeks 2 days 16 hours ago) and read 25126 times:

Quoting STT757 (Reply 8):
AA is the surving company

My money is on "American Airways" being the name for the combined carrier, leaving no "surviving" carrier so to speak. A holding company will be created (American Airways) with subsidiary-American Airlines and subsidiary-US Airways operating under the umbrella of American Airways. Much like Continental taking over United, the stronger brand-name will be kept (American), and we will have many discussion of "sub-AA this" and "sub-US that" until the final bits of the airlines are finally combined years down the road.



Work Hard. Fly Right. Fly United.
User currently offlinecommavia From United States of America, joined Apr 2005, 11463 posts, RR: 61
Reply 7, posted (1 year 5 months 3 weeks 2 days 16 hours ago) and read 25009 times:

Since we're treating this as if it's already happened, and because I put my domestic predictions primarily with the hub discussion, here are my predictions on the international network ...

Atlantic: some shifting and optimization among hubs/gateways; 1 daily FRA and seasonal GLA flights shifted from PHL to JFK (as 757s), and JFK also picks up 1 daily flight to TLV; CLT-FCO shifted to MIA-MXP and seasonal CLT-DUB ended entirely; PHL/CLT-FRA each lose 1 daily and PHL-MUC/ZRH exited entirely (due to dependence on Star connections); seasonal PHL-ATH market exited entirely (due to poor economy) while PHL-BCN and CLT-MAD upgraded from seasonal to year-round

Pacific: little direct impact from merger, beyond US bringing feed and connectivity from US hubs and strength markets to AA Asia-bound flights instead of onto United codeshare flights; may provide marginal boost to NRT/China flying; longer-term, AA/JL JV adds daily JL 787 on PHL-NRT

Latin America: little change beyond CLT losing GIG and likely GRU flying and some Caribbean weekend flying with that capacity shifted to MIA, although CLT retains substantial capacity to major markets (e.g., CUN, AUA, PUJ, SJU, STT, MBJ, etc.)

[Edited 2013-02-08 05:10:27]

User currently offlineairbazar From United States of America, joined Sep 2003, 8237 posts, RR: 10
Reply 8, posted (1 year 5 months 3 weeks 2 days 16 hours ago) and read 24942 times:

I can't see PHL-LIS surviving. At best it will be shifted to JFK-LIS. I would love to see them try something out of the box like BOS-LIS.

User currently offlinechepos From Puerto Rico, joined Dec 2000, 6207 posts, RR: 11
Reply 9, posted (1 year 5 months 3 weeks 2 days 15 hours ago) and read 24913 times:

PHL/CLT- FRA is currently at one daily flight (it's only twice daily in the summer). If this merger goes through it would be interesting to see if BA returns to CLT, I would expect LH to exit CLT. I just don't see the CLT-MAD as going year round, maybe I'm wrong.
I



Fly the Flag!!!!
User currently offlineLAXdude1023 From India, joined Sep 2006, 7512 posts, RR: 24
Reply 10, posted (1 year 5 months 3 weeks 2 days 15 hours ago) and read 24687 times:

Quoting PHLJJS (Reply 4):

I see PHL being one of the first new Asia routes of the combined airline, if not the first.



Stewed...Lewd...Crude...Irreverent...Belligerent
User currently offlineCubsrule From United States of America, joined May 2004, 22737 posts, RR: 20
Reply 11, posted (1 year 5 months 3 weeks 2 days 15 hours ago) and read 24692 times:

Quoting commavia (Reply 7):
Latin America: little change beyond CLT losing GIG and likely GRU flying and some Caribbean weekend flying with that capacity shifted to MIA,

I think CLT-GRU can work with more appropriate timing; I view it as similar to DTW-GRU or ORD-GRU. It's likely a smaller local market than either, but it's much better positioned for connections and AA is much stronger with Brasil point of sale traffic than either UA or DL.



I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
User currently offlineAVLAirlineFreq From United States of America, joined Jun 2008, 1026 posts, RR: 0
Reply 12, posted (1 year 5 months 3 weeks 2 days 13 hours ago) and read 24304 times:

I'd love to see an analysis by someone of...

How many airports are served by both US and AA?
How many are served by only US or only AA?
How many are likely to pick up new hub connections?
How many are likely to lose hub connections through consolidation?


User currently offlinebrilondon From Canada, joined Aug 2005, 4138 posts, RR: 1
Reply 13, posted (1 year 5 months 3 weeks 2 days 13 hours ago) and read 24258 times:

Quoting thorntot (Reply 6):
My money is on "American Airways" being the name for the combined carrier, leaving no "surviving" carrier so to speak. A holding company will be created (American Airways) with subsidiary-American Airlines and subsidiary-US Airways operating under the umbrella of American Airways. Much like Continental taking over United, the stronger brand-name will be kept (American), and we will have many discussion of "sub-AA this" and "sub-US that" until the final bits of the airlines are finally combined years down the road.

No, I think it will be known as American and the Airlines/Airways will only be in the official name, but will become "American" as the marketing name like most people refer to most of the airlines now anyways. Hence the "American" and no mention of AA on the new livery.



Rush for ever; Yankees all the way!!
User currently offlineusairways85 From United States of America, joined Nov 2001, 3396 posts, RR: 7
Reply 14, posted (1 year 5 months 3 weeks 2 days 13 hours ago) and read 24174 times:

Quoting commavia (Reply 7):
Atlantic: some shifting and optimization among hubs/gateways; 1 daily FRA and seasonal GLA flights shifted from PHL to JFK (as 757s), and JFK also picks up 1 daily flight to TLV; CLT-FCO shifted to MIA-MXP and seasonal CLT-DUB ended entirely; PHL/CLT-FRA each lose 1 daily and PHL-MUC/ZRH exited entirely (due to dependence on Star connections); seasonal PHL-ATH market exited entirely (due to poor economy) while PHL-BCN and CLT-MAD upgraded from seasonal to year-round

I think the dependence on PHL-FRA is shifted to PHL-LHR with at least 3 daily not sure how it would play out between AA/US and BA.
Possibly double daily PHL-MAD.
PHL-ATH is definitely gone.
I think PHL-NRT and HKG are definitely in the cards

AA may be the suriving "name" but isn't the leadership supposed to be predominantly US? They may make the case to put an end to the TLV issue because they see the $$. I suspect PHL-TLV is upgraded to 772 rather than double daily and then JFK-TLV added.


User currently offlinesimairlinenet From United States of America, joined Oct 2005, 911 posts, RR: 2
Reply 15, posted (1 year 5 months 3 weeks 2 days 12 hours ago) and read 23981 times:

Quoting commavia (Reply 7):
PHL-MUC/ZRH exited entirely (due to dependence on Star connections)

Really? US Airways has been in MUC since the late '90s. Yes, it was helped by an odd codeshare with Deutsche BA, but they kept it through the downturn, Deutsche BA's changes, and before they joined Star Alliance.

ZRH, maybe. AA flies JFK-ZRH right now.


User currently offlinedtfg From China, joined Jan 2013, 74 posts, RR: 0
Reply 16, posted (1 year 5 months 3 weeks 2 days 12 hours ago) and read 23821 times:

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 10):
I see PHL being one of the first new Asia routes of the combined airline, if not the first.

PHL-PEK ? I remember US got green light on this route years ago but for whatever reason they abandoned it.


User currently offlineLAXdude1023 From India, joined Sep 2006, 7512 posts, RR: 24
Reply 17, posted (1 year 5 months 3 weeks 2 days 11 hours ago) and read 23670 times:

Quoting usairways85 (Reply 14):
I think PHL-NRT and HKG are definitely in the cards

I agree PHL-NRT is a distinct possibility.

PHL-HKG is a nonstarter. The market isnt there.

Quoting dtfg (Reply 16):
PHL-PEK ? I remember US got green light on this route years ago but for whatever reason they abandoned it.

They didnt have the plane for it. It probably was a blessing in disguise. I dont think that flight would have been a success.



Stewed...Lewd...Crude...Irreverent...Belligerent
User currently offlineouboy79 From United States of America, joined Nov 2001, 4567 posts, RR: 23
Reply 18, posted (1 year 5 months 3 weeks 2 days 10 hours ago) and read 23416 times:

A lot of the focus seems to be on specific international points, but very little on domestic points. I would almost expect that the new AA will go through an add a second hub option to every airport that is currently served by only one.

User currently offlineAeroWesty From United States of America, joined Oct 2004, 20394 posts, RR: 62
Reply 19, posted (1 year 5 months 3 weeks 2 days 10 hours ago) and read 23396 times:

Quoting ouboy79 (Reply 18):
I would almost expect that the new AA will go through an add a second hub option to every airport that is currently served by only one.

I'd happily exchange a few PDX-PHX flights for the return of PDX-ORD and the PDX-DFW red-eye.



International Homo of Mystery
User currently offlineFreshSide3 From United States of America, joined Nov 2012, 213 posts, RR: 0
Reply 20, posted (1 year 5 months 3 weeks 2 days 10 hours ago) and read 23276 times:

Quoting commavia (Reply 7):
PHL-AND OLD: Munich - Riem (MUC / EDDM) (closed), Germany">MUC/ZRH exited entirely (due to dependence on Star connections)
Quoting simairlinenet (Reply 15):
Really? US Airways has been in AND OLD: Munich - Riem (MUC / EDDM) (closed), Germany">MUC since the late '90s. Yes, it was helped by an odd codeshare with Deutsche BA, but they kept it through the downturn, Deutsche BA's changes, and before they joined Star Alliance.ZRH, maybe. AA flies JFK-ZRH right now.

I think PHL-AND OLD: Munich - Riem (MUC / EDDM) (closed), Germany">MUC will stay, but PHL-ZRH is going to go. Better to use the plane for Budapest(from either ORD or JFK) since there is no DL or MA.

Quoting commavia (Reply 7):
seasonal PHL-AND CURRENT: Athens - Eleftherios Venizelos (Spata) (ATH / LGAV), Greece">ATH market exited entirely (due to poor economy)

Much will depend on what Qatar Airways does. For those of you who don't know already, QR is planning to put on JFK-AND CURRENT: Athens - Eleftherios Venizelos (Spata) (ATH / LGAV), Greece">ATH, which is a bit of an amomoly, since neither city is a hub for them. However, they have been dragging their feet on this. Right now should be the time to start loading the flight into inventory, to start selling for the peak summer season. Yet they haven't. With this in mind, it's highly likely they will turn around and decide NOT do it.

If QR is on, then it's likely AA/US will give up on AND CURRENT: Athens - Eleftherios Venizelos (Spata) (ATH / LGAV), Greece">ATH forever, just like UA did last year. If they are off, then AA/US should keep the service----but out of another hub. PHL is OK, but synergy too weak compared to JFK(or ORD)-AND CURRENT: Athens - Eleftherios Venizelos (Spata) (ATH / LGAV), Greece">ATH.

Quoting airbazar (Reply 8):
I can't see PHL-LIS surviving. At best it will be shifted to JFK-LIS. I would love to see them try something out of the box like BOS-LIS.

Philly is also weak here, too. Even more so. New York is do-able, but then you are directly competing against existing TP/UA flights. BOS-LIS is good. Or perhaps even service to Terceira, Azores Islands(TER). Many people that go to LIS are connecting there, and then turning around, and going west. They get the people to where they need to be AND burn less fuel on BOS(or JFK) to TER.


User currently offlineFreshSide3 From United States of America, joined Nov 2012, 213 posts, RR: 0
Reply 21, posted (1 year 5 months 3 weeks 2 days 10 hours ago) and read 23104 times:

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 17):
I agree PHL-NRT is a distinct possibility. PHL-HKG is a nonstarter. The market isnt there.

True........there is enough Asia(as a continent) demand, but not any one strong city from PHL. But if you have to have any Asian hub to represent PHL traffic, NRT is the one........lots of connection options on AA partner JAL.

Quoting usairways85 (Reply 14):
Possibly double daily PHL-MAD.

Sounds like a good idea.....but we need to see how the Iberia situation plays out, before adding the second flight. We can get a better gauge on it once IB figures out which inter-Europe flights they will have.

Also:
(1) Making the JFK-MAN trip a thru trip from AUS.
(2) More Puerto Rico in the winter
(3) One seasonal summer Europe trip out of STL, perhaps 4x/week to LHR. Good feeder to BA's hub.


User currently offlineFWAERJ From United States of America, joined Jun 2006, 3722 posts, RR: 2
Reply 22, posted (1 year 5 months 3 weeks 2 days 9 hours ago) and read 22717 times:

First, a little history of AA and US at my hometown airport: With service dating back to the PI DAY hub in the mid-1980s, US left FWA and many other small Midwestern airports in 2004 as part of the broader PIT dehubbing. However, after over 30 years serving FWA (first with 727s, then F100s and ATRs, and now ERJs), AA/Eagle remains strong at FWA with service to ORD and DFW (the FWA-DFW route turns 13 this year).

I see this as the chance where the merged AA/US finally launches FWA-PHL, FWA-CLT, and potentially FWA-DCA as American Eagle (or whatever they want to call the regional arm) routes. All three cities have close ties to FWA: Wells Fargo and Lincoln Financial have large presences in FWA, PHL, and CLT, along with many other companies. There are also a lot of people from the PHL area that live in FWA now, likely due in part to Lincoln Financial. As for FWA-DCA, there is a huge untapped O&D market with many local ties (even moreso than NYC) that currently has to connect at ORD or DTW or use another airport with nonstop DC-area service.

From FWA, I could see AA/US adding one daily flight each to CLT and either DCA or PHL (initially a CR2 or ER4 for PHL and DCA; 70-seaters for CLT to compete with the likely upgrade of DL's FWA-ATL to larger aircraft) to start to complement the 3-4 daily ORD and 2 daily DFW flights. If successful initially (and I think it would be), FWA-PHL/CLT could go double-daily, though DCA would get larger aircraft in lieu of higher frequency due to slot controls. As for the existing Eagle routes from FWA, I see a bright future for them as well. I could see DFW being upgraded to larger aircraft for sure (either MQ CR7s moved from ORD as RW takes over 70-seat ORD flying or CR7s/CR9s/E-Jets from the pre-merger US regional partners) and potentially an ORD flight or two.

And I think that it's not just FWA that will get tapped into the PMUS (is it too early to start using that term?) network: Many other cities abandoned by US in the wake of the PIT dehubbing that still have a strong Eagle presence like GRR, PIA, and EVV will likely see service to PMUS hubs, but mostly to CLT as PHL has capacity issues and DCA is slot-controlled. With DL adding ATL back to PMNW cities like GRB and PIA, the merged AA/US needs to add CLT service to smaller Midwestern cities to compete with the world's single largest airline hub. And I wouldn't be surprised to see cities not currently served by either AA or US, like SBN, YNG, and LAN, added to a mix of PMAA and PMUS hubs.



I don't work for FWA, their tenants, or their ad agency. But I still love FWA.
User currently offlinepvd757 From United States of America, joined Aug 2003, 3411 posts, RR: 17
Reply 23, posted (1 year 5 months 3 weeks 2 days 9 hours ago) and read 22691 times:

PVD-DFW could come back in a US-AA merger. Not sure PVD-ORD or PVD-MIA would make the cut, but DFW seems like a solid candidate. US has plenty of gates and ticket counter space at PVD, so any new flights could easily operate without increasing overhead.

User currently offlinejfk777 From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 8289 posts, RR: 7
Reply 24, posted (1 year 5 months 3 weeks 2 days 9 hours ago) and read 22666 times:
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Quoting commavia (Reply 7):
Latin America: little change beyond CLT losing GIG and likely GRU flying and some Caribbean weekend flying with that capacity shifted to MIA, although CLT retains substantial capacity to major markets (e.g., CUN, AUA, PUJ, SJU, STT, MBJ, etc.)

If CLT looses GIG then is DFW loosing GRU ? No way, CLT can be a complement to Miami, JFK and DFW asn an additional gateway to Brazil. AA would be wise to use CLT the way Delta uses Atlanta for international flights. AA needs to own Brazil the way Cathay owns Hong Kong. ORD to GRU needs to happen too why should United fly to Sao Paulo and not AA from ORD ?


User currently offlinecommavia From United States of America, joined Apr 2005, 11463 posts, RR: 61
Reply 25, posted (1 year 5 months 3 weeks 2 days 9 hours ago) and read 23025 times:

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 24):
If CLT looses GIG then is DFW loosing GRU ?

Huh? What does one have at all to do with the other?


User currently onlineLHCVG From United States of America, joined May 2009, 1546 posts, RR: 1
Reply 26, posted (1 year 5 months 3 weeks 2 days 9 hours ago) and read 22980 times:

Quoting AeroWesty (Reply 3):
Does anyone have any opinion or historical facts to share on what impact the AA/US merger will have on the DCA beyond perimeter routes? Both airlines have flights which take advantage of exemptions to the rule.

Will whichever airline is regarded as the acquiring airline matter?

What are the odds that any of these flights will be an issue in the release of DCA slots which is expected in order for the merger to gain regulatory approval?

Going point by point, in no particular order of importance:

1. My guess is the SAN and LAS flights are safe, as is the legacy AA LAX. The question to me would be the 3 PHX slots - I'd bet you at least 2 of those stay, but I also bet they try to get approval to swap one to LAX, maybe even two. But dollars to pesos PHX keeps at least 1x. A potential wild card is the fate of the AS partnership post-merger - I don't know what the deal is there, but that may come into play with the effective addition of 1x LAX, 1x PDX, and 2x SEA as AA codeshares (I don't see that being a problem though as it's just a codeshare between two entirely unrelated airlines). Bottom line: probably nothing too drastic here, just some upgauging maybe, and perhaps a VERY slight reduction on IAD-West Coast service.

2. Eh, I don't think so here, but it's a possibility. Since we're talking about beyond perimeter slots, the only hubs affected are PHX and LAX, and you're going to see both remain reasonably strong even after some shifting to LAX. But I see that as more of a good business move period and not one that would depend on where US or AA does the formal acquiring. Bottom line: ditto to above, little impact from this.

3. If my understanding is correct, these slots themselves would be kosher as long as it is a merger and not a pure takeover by one party. Maybe WN pleads for a PHX flight or something like that, but probably nothing too major.

3a. Slots more broadly will most definitely be an issue here. This will only further consolidate US's hold at DCA, and might make things interesting for the within perimeter stuff. ORD and DFW will probably see some upgauging going on, LGA shuttle might get a slight bump to 320s with the added AA traffic, BOS may get some upgauging, and you might see some shifting from PHL to JFK and CLT to DFW or MIA. Plus, those couple daily USX DCA-DFW flights (just one example) would be good freebies to hand over as slot concessions. But count on more than a few surrendered slots.


User currently offlineUnited_fan From United States of America, joined Nov 2000, 7456 posts, RR: 7
Reply 27, posted (1 year 5 months 3 weeks 2 days 9 hours ago) and read 23308 times:

I'm hoping ROC gets mainline back . All we have now is 1 A319 to/from CLT . A n/s to DFW again would be nice. Our MQ CR7 flight ended a few years back.


'Empathy was yesterday...Today, you're wasting my Mother-F'ing time' - Heat.
User currently offlineaf086 From France, joined Jan 2007, 1059 posts, RR: 9
Reply 28, posted (1 year 5 months 3 weeks 2 days 9 hours ago) and read 23232 times:

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 11):
I think CLT-GRU can work with more appropriate timing; I view it as similar to DTW-GRU or ORD-GRU. It's likely a smaller local market than either, but it's much better positioned for connections and AA is much stronger with Brasil point of sale traffic than either UA or DL.

CLT-GIG already works. Why would they axe that? It is consolidated and got upgraded during the summer season to the 332 for the first time given the strong loads.

CLT-GRU is more complicated though: the 762 is not the best product out there, the compatition is fierce and the schedule is plain awful. I can see US getting better slots at GRU if they stick for a while there though.



Please insert a "smart" joke here.
User currently offlinePHX787 From Japan, joined Mar 2012, 7233 posts, RR: 17
Reply 29, posted (1 year 5 months 3 weeks 2 days 9 hours ago) and read 23228 times:

Lets not forget PHX-Asia route that the locals here are trying to get!


One of the FB admins for PHX Spotters. "Zach the Expat!"
User currently offlinemah4546 From Sweden, joined Jan 2001, 32621 posts, RR: 72
Reply 30, posted (1 year 5 months 3 weeks 2 days 9 hours ago) and read 23248 times:

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 29):
Lets not forget PHX-Asia route that the locals here are trying to get!

What about it? It's even more unlikely to happen under an AA/US merger than if US remains alone.



a.
User currently offlineAirDance From United States of America, joined Feb 2013, 22 posts, RR: 0
Reply 31, posted (1 year 5 months 3 weeks 2 days 9 hours ago) and read 23146 times:

Quoting FWAERJ (Reply 22):
Many other cities abandoned by US in the wake of the PIT dehubbing that still have a strong Eagle presence like GRR, PIA, and EVV will likely see service to PMUS hubs

GRR currently has six flights a day to ORD on American Connection and three flights a day to DFW on American Eagle. Could we see capacity on these current routes reduced in return for flights to CLT, PHL, and/or DCA? There has been speculation/meetings with airport officials for the last few years about the return of US to GRR but it seems that the cost of setting up a new station has been the main concern for them. It looks like GRR could in the end reap positive benefits from this merger.

Also, could we see smaller Midwestern airports like AZO gain service to PHL after losing prior service on US to PIT?


User currently offlineFWAERJ From United States of America, joined Jun 2006, 3722 posts, RR: 2
Reply 32, posted (1 year 5 months 3 weeks 2 days 9 hours ago) and read 23148 times:

Quoting AirDance (Reply 31):
Also, could we see smaller Midwestern airports like AZO gain service to PHL after losing prior service on US to PIT?

PHL is capacity-constrained, so the merged AA/US would have to choose PHL routes wisely (and DCA even more, as it's slot-controlled).

CLT has no such similar restrictions, plus it's in a growth market and it would be defense against DL's increased ATL-Midwest routes, so expect more CLT routes from PMAA-only cities than PHL or DCA routes.



I don't work for FWA, their tenants, or their ad agency. But I still love FWA.
User currently offlinebobloblaw From United States of America, joined Jan 2012, 1646 posts, RR: 1
Reply 33, posted (1 year 5 months 3 weeks 2 days 8 hours ago) and read 22999 times:
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Quoting FWAERJ (Reply 32):

Finally an A.netter who sees CLT opportunities. Most here can't wait to close CLT leaving ATL as the only hub in a catchment area of over 35m people.


User currently offlinejfk777 From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 8289 posts, RR: 7
Reply 34, posted (1 year 5 months 3 weeks 2 days 8 hours ago) and read 22818 times:
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Quoting commavia (Reply 25):
Quoting commavia (Reply 25):
oting jfk777 (Reply 24):If CLT looses GIG then is DFW loosing GRU ?
Huh? What does one have at all to do with the other?

Because USairways had the vision to start its own servie to Brazil and NOT wait until AA did it for them. Why would any one think killing a profitable flight to Rio de Janiero is a good idea.


User currently offlineFWAERJ From United States of America, joined Jun 2006, 3722 posts, RR: 2
Reply 35, posted (1 year 5 months 3 weeks 2 days 8 hours ago) and read 22788 times:

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 33):
Finally an A.netter who sees CLT opportunities. Most here can't wait to close CLT leaving ATL as the only hub in a catchment area of over 35m people.

Thanks... but you forgot to make that "35 million people and growing".  

Growth is the key word here, and the word that will keep CLT a viable and thriving hub.



I don't work for FWA, their tenants, or their ad agency. But I still love FWA.
User currently offlineflyinryan99 From United States of America, joined Feb 2001, 2000 posts, RR: 12
Reply 36, posted (1 year 5 months 3 weeks 2 days 8 hours ago) and read 22746 times:

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 33):
Finally an A.netter who sees CLT opportunities. Most here can't wait to close CLT leaving ATL as the only hub in a catchment area of over 35m people.

There are plenty of opportunities that could come to CLT for increased destinations (maybe not increased flights though). I think there are a few destinations in the great lakes region that could see 1x to 2x flights. Depending on how station costs, revenues, and network rationalization, I could easily see GRR/FWA/TOL/FNT/EVV/BMI - CLT being added. None of those markets can support MIA but could easily support CLT with a wide array of southeastern and Caribbean destinations. It just depends on who is in charge - US or AA personnel or a mix...it's going to get interesting that's for sure. I've got my popcorn and I'm ready to watch the show.


User currently offlinecrAAzy From United States of America, joined Jan 2008, 772 posts, RR: 0
Reply 37, posted (1 year 5 months 3 weeks 2 days 8 hours ago) and read 22766 times:
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Quoting af086 (Reply 28):
CLT-GIG already works. Why would they axe that? It is consolidated and got upgraded during the summer season to the 332 for the first time given the strong loads.

CLT-GRU is more complicated though: the 762 is not the best product out there, the compatition is fierce and the schedule is plain awful. I can see US getting better slots at GRU if they stick for a while there though.


I can see a combined AA/US keeping a few select Caribbean or Central American flying out of CLT but I doubt we'll see deep S. America remain when AA has the same flights from JFK/MIA/DFW with a better product offering.

It exactly this reason why I think we'll see a rather significant expansion from AA out of MIA into the eastern US.

I'm not saying CLT is going to shrink dramatically but I personally see this merger as a big win for MIA ... if AA doesn't run out of room.


User currently offlineLAXdude1023 From India, joined Sep 2006, 7512 posts, RR: 24
Reply 38, posted (1 year 5 months 3 weeks 2 days 8 hours ago) and read 22722 times:

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 33):
Finally an A.netter who sees CLT opportunities. Most here can't wait to close CLT leaving ATL as the only hub in a catchment area of over 35m people.

No, I dont think anyone credible actually believes the hub is going to be shut down outright.

What were questioning is whether there is a need for a 650 flight per day hub. I have said that I dont think so, but that I see CLT being more than 400 and less than 500 flights per day. I have also said, there is not much of a need to serve CLT-Europe beyond the UK and Germany on a year round basis and perhaps CDG and MAD in the summer. I have also said, I think BA will come in at some point.

All that said, the only destinions I really see CLT losing are in the Caribbean, GIG, and Europe. I think GRU will be re-timed and kept. I dont see them losing any destinations domestically.

As far as growth, I dont see it beyond a couple of domestic points. Sorry.



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User currently offlineAeroWesty From United States of America, joined Oct 2004, 20394 posts, RR: 62
Reply 39, posted (1 year 5 months 3 weeks 2 days 8 hours ago) and read 22510 times:

Quoting LHCVG (Reply 26):
Going point by point, in no particular order of importance:

Thanks very much for your insightful reply. I realize that the DCA beyond perimeter route authorities have come about over time via various means, and would think these rights would be the most sought after by other airlines if any needed to be released as a condition of the merger.

It'll be interesting to watch!



International Homo of Mystery
User currently offlineusairways85 From United States of America, joined Nov 2001, 3396 posts, RR: 7
Reply 40, posted (1 year 5 months 3 weeks 2 days 8 hours ago) and read 22406 times:

Quoting af086 (Reply 28):

CLT-GIG already works. Why would they axe that? It is consolidated and got upgraded during the summer season to the 332 for the first time given the strong loads.

CLT-GRU is more complicated though: the 762 is not the best product out there, the compatition is fierce and the schedule is plain awful. I can see US getting better slots at GRU if they stick for a while there though.

These work because the ton of capacity US routes through CLT. If US/AA axe any of that GIG/GRU become tougher to turn a profit.

Quoting FWAERJ (Reply 32):
PHL is capacity-constrained, so the merged AA/US would have to choose PHL routes wisely (and DCA even more, as it's slot-controlled).

Not really. US chooses to operate a banked hub rather than rolling and they fly a ton of props/RJs. They can either spread flts out into a rolling hub or cut frequency in favor of larger aircraft.


User currently offlinebobloblaw From United States of America, joined Jan 2012, 1646 posts, RR: 1
Reply 41, posted (1 year 5 months 3 weeks 2 days 7 hours ago) and read 22355 times:
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Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 38):
All that said, the only destinions I really see CLT losing are in the Caribbean, GIG, and Europe.

I agree that the GIG frequencies could be better used for more MIA-Northern Brazil.
Why Europe? What does AA bring that makes AA want to move Europe flights elsewhere? PHL and CLT coexists now well as Euro-gateways. JFK is mostly for locals.
Also Caribbean is better served for many markets thru CLT not MIA (not saying MIA loses anything). But this notion that Caribbean wil lbe moved from CLT to MIA is incorrect I think. US already is profitable from CLT to the region, cutting CLT doesnt improve MIA at all and cuts off many smaller cities from the region as they wont have MIA service.

I dont understand why people think that AA will cede the Southest to Europe and Southeast and Midwest to Caribbean to Delta and ATL.

The WSJ has a good article on AA/US. It isnt like DL/NW or UA/CO. Those mergers were done to make the industry smaller. This is being done to make AA bigger. You wont see AA shrink US the way DL has shrunk or even UA has shrunk.


User currently offlineCubsrule From United States of America, joined May 2004, 22737 posts, RR: 20
Reply 42, posted (1 year 5 months 3 weeks 2 days 7 hours ago) and read 22156 times:

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 41):
I agree that the GIG frequencies could be better used for more MIA-Northern Brazil.

Doesn't non-GRU Brasil have available frequencies?

Quoting usairways85 (Reply 40):
These work because the ton of capacity US routes through CLT. If US/AA axe any of that GIG/GRU become tougher to turn a profit.

True, but US doesn't need 7 daily CLT-PIT flights to be a viable option for PIT-GRU traffic. Four is more than sufficient. That's true in most markets.



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User currently offlineLAXdude1023 From India, joined Sep 2006, 7512 posts, RR: 24
Reply 43, posted (1 year 5 months 3 weeks 2 days 7 hours ago) and read 22141 times:

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 41):
Also Caribbean is better served for many markets thru CLT not MIA (not saying MIA loses anything). But this notion that Caribbean wil lbe moved from CLT to MIA is incorrect I think. US already is profitable from CLT to the region, cutting CLT doesnt improve MIA at all and cuts off many smaller cities from the region as they wont have MIA service.

I never said that CLT-Caribbean will cease to exist, Ive always said that CLT-Caribbean will be the major markets only (SJU, MBJ, CUN, PUJ, AUA, etc.).

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 41):
Why Europe? What does AA bring that makes AA want to move Europe flights elsewhere? PHL and CLT coexists now well as Euro-gateways. JFK is mostly for locals.

Thats mainly because of the size of the airline. Im saying that the need for CLT-FCO and CLT-DUB can simply be shifted given ORD, JFK, and (presumably) PHL will serve those same markets and CLT doesnt have a large market to them. CLT-LHR/FRA are completely safe as CLT has a high yielding and pretty sizeable presence to those destinations. CLT-CDG is not a very large market and CDG is served from JFK, ORD, MIA, (presumably) PHL, and DFW. All of the mentioned are much larger in size than CLT-CDG, however I still see a demand for CLT-CDG in the summer as demand spikes. CLT-MAD could be a good seasonal one as well.



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User currently offlinecrAAzy From United States of America, joined Jan 2008, 772 posts, RR: 0
Reply 44, posted (1 year 5 months 3 weeks 2 days 7 hours ago) and read 22145 times:
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Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 41):
I dont understand why people think that AA will cede the Southest to Europe and Southeast and Midwest to Caribbean to Delta and ATL.

I don't think it's a question of giving up the Southeast/Midwest markets to DL at ATL. They certainly don't want to do that at all. It's a question of streamling operations and profits.

Example - CLT-GRU
Ask yourself just some of the following questions:

How many passengers are originating in CLT for the GRU flight?
How many passengers are connecting in CLT for the GRU flight with one connection?
How many passengers are connecting in CLT for the GRU flight with two or more connections?

WILL the additional options of JFK,MIA,DFW funnel customers away from the CLT flight?

How many of those connecting passengers can now connect in JFK,MIA,DFW with the same # of connections or less?

For those passengers originating in CLT, how much additional time would a connecting flight add to their itinerary?

Do we have extra capacity on our flights out of JFK,MIA,DFW?

How many corporate contracts do we have across the system will allow these customers to travel in international F if offered?

Can the equipment used on CLT-GRU be deployed somewhere else allowing us to ...
replace and retire an older piece of equipment?
enhance the customer experience?
open up a new route in the system?
upguage a route in the system?


User currently onlineRyanairGuru From Australia, joined Oct 2006, 5204 posts, RR: 4
Reply 45, posted (1 year 5 months 3 weeks 2 days 7 hours ago) and read 22066 times:

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 41):
Caribbean is better served for many markets thru CLT not MIA (not saying MIA loses anything). But this notion that Caribbean wil lbe moved from CLT to MIA is incorrect I think.

The big check mark for CLT here is airport costs. If we assume that a lot of the connecting leisure traffic to the Caribbean is relatively low yielding/price sensitive, why not fly that through one of the cheapest hubs in the country rather than one of the most expensive?

Clearly there is a HUGE O&D market for MIA-Caribbean and that traffic isn't going anywhere, but - from a cost perspective - I don't understand why so many people seem to think that connections from the North East/Central/West are better served over MIA than CLT.



Worked Hard, Flew Right
User currently onlineLHCVG From United States of America, joined May 2009, 1546 posts, RR: 1
Reply 46, posted (1 year 5 months 3 weeks 2 days 7 hours ago) and read 22027 times:

Quoting AeroWesty (Reply 39):

Thanks very much for your insightful reply. I realize that the DCA beyond perimeter route authorities have come about over time via various means, and would think these rights would be the most sought after by other airlines if any needed to be released as a condition of the merger.

It'll be interesting to watch!

Absolutely! I don't think they necessarily have to remain as-is either, where say a DCA-PHX just switches colors to another carrier. So it could be great for the other players looking to expand service elsewhere (e.g,, UA to DEN/SFO/LAX, DL or VX to LAX, someone else to SAN, etc.).


User currently offlineyellowtail From United States of America, joined Jun 2005, 6052 posts, RR: 2
Reply 47, posted (1 year 5 months 3 weeks 2 days 7 hours ago) and read 21971 times:

As there is no AA/US Merger Impact: Pax thread, i shall post it here.

Does wither carrier loose some pax by merging? For example, a AA adverse pax who was a US FFer (and vice versa)....do they move to DL. Is this a fraction of people or a lot and does it help the other carriers market share?

If this deal goes thru, it does make Parkers deal with DL over LGA look brilliant as he will be getting back a lot of slots with the merger. With the merger, he probably would have been forced to divest some anyway, so at least he go something for them.



When in doubt, hold on to your altitude. No-one has ever collided with the sky.
User currently offlinec172akula From Canada, joined Mar 2001, 998 posts, RR: 4
Reply 48, posted (1 year 5 months 3 weeks 2 days 7 hours ago) and read 21902 times:

I'm hearing quite a few rumours about AA pulling the plug on DFW-YYC (as early as September). WS has announced that this will be one of their new routes (formally being announced on Monday).

User currently offlineshamrock604 From Ireland, joined Sep 2007, 4161 posts, RR: 13
Reply 49, posted (1 year 5 months 3 weeks 2 days 7 hours ago) and read 21891 times:

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 43):
Thats mainly because of the size of the airline. Im saying that the need for CLT-FCO and CLT-DUB can simply be shifted given ORD, JFK, and (presumably) PHL will serve those same markets and CLT doesnt have a large market to them

I dont see why CLT-DUB is such an obvious one to scrap. Essentially, the Dublin route was a way to get extra utilisation out of a domestic 757 that will produce decent yields in peak season, and can use domestic gates at CLT due to CBP in Dublin. It was launched probably because it was a quick, easy win using existing resources.



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User currently onlineLHCVG From United States of America, joined May 2009, 1546 posts, RR: 1
Reply 50, posted (1 year 5 months 3 weeks 2 days 7 hours ago) and read 21855 times:

Quoting yellowtail (Reply 47):
Does wither carrier loose some pax by merging? For example, a AA adverse pax who was a US FFer (and vice versa)....do they move to DL. Is this a fraction of people or a lot and does it help the other carriers market share?

You win some, you lose some. Take DCA-ORD for example: there will be more here because of the US fliers who previously had to take UA to ORD. Then you might be able to pick off a few more such as UA fliers who still want DCA but are willing to switch alliances to keep LGA and BOS access. There will certainly be some attrition too, which is to be expected, but overall I would guess it won't be too drastic either way.


User currently offlinebobloblaw From United States of America, joined Jan 2012, 1646 posts, RR: 1
Reply 51, posted (1 year 5 months 3 weeks 2 days 6 hours ago) and read 21538 times:
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Quoting c172akula (Reply 48):
I'm hearing quite a few rumours about AA pulling the plug on DFW-YYC

From who? I bet there is a lot of oil related traffic. Does AA codeshare with WS?

Quoting crAAzy (Reply 44):
I don't think it's a question of giving up the Southeast/Midwest markets to DL at ATL.

Actually yeah, it is. I bet US is highly profitable from CLT to Caribbean and I dont see other alternatives for those shells. From much of the NE and Midwest CLT is the best gateway to the region, not MIA and certainly not JFK. In fact I can see routes like ORF-MIA being cancelled, unless there is a lot of local or lot of unique destinations on the flight that cant be served over CLT like say CCS, LIM etc.

Quoting crAAzy (Reply 44):
Example - CLT-GRU

GRU is a horrible example since I have conceeded that Brazil frequencies might be better used from MIA for new service rather than duplicate service. Show me why AA cancels CLT-SXM or CLT-AUA.

Quoting crAAzy (Reply 37):
It exactly this reason why I think we'll see a rather significant expansion from AA out of MIA into the eastern US.

And overfly CLT with RJs...fast way to lose money. AA can do that NOW, they dont need US to do something like that.


User currently offlinemah4546 From Sweden, joined Jan 2001, 32621 posts, RR: 72
Reply 52, posted (1 year 5 months 3 weeks 2 days 6 hours ago) and read 21319 times:

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 41):
I agree that the GIG frequencies could be better used for more MIA-Northern Brazil.

No need. There is an abundance of unused non-GIG/GRU frequencies already, both unavailable currently and opening up this year. AA will be applying for seven more shortly for POA/CWB.

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 41):
What does AA bring that makes AA want to move Europe flights elsewhere?

From Charlotte? Florida is the number one feeder, and MIA/FLL in particular, for CLTFCO, CLTMAD and CLTCDG; MCO is the biggest feeder for DUB. That's overlap that simply isn't needed. Florida connections to Europe are best fed via Miami, where there is a local market that is often 10x (and in the case of MAD, almost 20x) larger than Charlotte.

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 41):
Also Caribbean is better served for many markets thru CLT not MIA

Why? Because smaller markets like Roanoke that provide virtually no feed?

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 41):
But this notion that Caribbean wil lbe moved from CLT to MIA is incorrect I think.

Nobody is saying that. But those Saturday-onlys won't be needed when they can be served daily from Miami, which connects to all the important feeder markets even today. SJU, AUA, NAS, etc. aren't going anywhere.



a.
User currently offlineyellowtail From United States of America, joined Jun 2005, 6052 posts, RR: 2
Reply 53, posted (1 year 5 months 3 weeks 2 days 6 hours ago) and read 21260 times:

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 51):
From who? I bet there is a lot of oil related traffic. Does AA codeshare with WS?

Also, quite a bit of the YYC-DFW traffic goes on to places like SJO, GUA, BZE etc



When in doubt, hold on to your altitude. No-one has ever collided with the sky.
User currently offlineaf086 From France, joined Jan 2007, 1059 posts, RR: 9
Reply 54, posted (1 year 5 months 3 weeks 2 days 6 hours ago) and read 21264 times:

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 42):
Doesn't non-GRU Brasil have available frequencies?

Yes. AA can start new services from anywhere in the US to anywhere in Brazil (but GRU) immediately if they feel like. US´ service to GIG does not need to be axed.

And again: why axing a route that works is beyond me. It got consolidated and this year got a summer upgrade keeping high loads and good yields.

I can see US/AA building up CLT as a complimentary hub to MIA. I can see single nonstops from CLT to other major destinations as EZE, SCL, LIM, BOG, UIO, CCS (if Chavez lets them) and etc.



Please insert a "smart" joke here.
User currently offlinec172akula From Canada, joined Mar 2001, 998 posts, RR: 4
Reply 55, posted (1 year 5 months 3 weeks 2 days 6 hours ago) and read 21241 times:

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 51):
From who? I bet there is a lot of oil related traffic. Does AA codeshare with WS?

Internal folks, and I do believe that WS and AA have started some codeshares on certain flights. I don't know if the DFW-YYC flight is one of them currently.

I'd rather AA stay in YYC, if there is room for both them and WS I will be a happy camper.


User currently offlinecommavia From United States of America, joined Apr 2005, 11463 posts, RR: 61
Reply 56, posted (1 year 5 months 3 weeks 2 days 6 hours ago) and read 21280 times:

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 29):
Lets not forget PHX-Asia route that the locals here are trying to get!

Let's forget it. At least for years. Not going to happen.

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 34):
Because USairways had the vision to start its own servie to Brazil and NOT wait until AA did it for them.

Huh???

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 34):
Why would any one think killing a profitable flight to Rio de Janiero is a good idea.

What's profitable now very well may not be post-merger. Shuttling cheap fares between GIG and MCO over CLT isn't my idea of a great business strategy.

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 38):
No, I dont think anyone credible actually believes the hub is going to be shut down outright.

What were questioning is whether there is a need for a 650 flight per day hub. I have said that I dont think so, but that I see CLT being more than 400 and less than 500 flights per day. I have also said, there is not much of a need to serve CLT-Europe beyond the UK and Germany on a year round basis and perhaps CDG and MAD in the summer. I have also said, I think BA will come in at some point.

All that said, the only destinions I really see CLT losing are in the Caribbean, GIG, and Europe. I think GRU will be re-timed and kept. I dont see them losing any destinations domestically.

Exactly. I think it is almost inevitable that CLT will see some reductions, as it is such a huge hub now, driven in large part by US' lower costs. But AA would be crazy to get rid of such a great hub altogether.

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 41):
The WSJ has a good article on AA/US. It isnt like DL/NW or UA/CO. Those mergers were done to make the industry smaller. This is being done to make AA bigger. You wont see AA shrink US the way DL has shrunk or even UA has shrunk.

I don't buy that for one minute any more than I buy Glenn Tilton and Jeff Smisek up on Capitol Hill pitching the "no plans for hub closures" line or the Delta-Northwest dog and pony show with "end-to-end networks." It's all B.S. I feel quite confident that this merger will result in a smaller airline than the sum of the two parts - no matter what P.R. Parker has been spinning or leakers have been positioning in the media.

The only question is where the cuts will happen, and how severe they will be.


User currently offlinemah4546 From Sweden, joined Jan 2001, 32621 posts, RR: 72
Reply 57, posted (1 year 5 months 3 weeks 2 days 6 hours ago) and read 21248 times:

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 51):
From who? I bet there is a lot of oil related traffic. Does AA codeshare with WS?

AA is not ending DFWYYC; but WS, which does codeshare with AA, will join it on DFWYYC in the late spring. Annoucement Monday.

Quoting yellowtail (Reply 53):
Also, quite a bit of the YYC-DFW traffic goes on to places like SJO, GUA, BZE etc

No, there isn't whatsoever.

Quoting af086 (Reply 54):
And again: why axing a route that works is beyond me. It got consolidated and this year got a summer upgrade keeping high loads and good yields.

If yields are good, it's because of US Airways' awesome cost structure, because the average fares on that route absolutely suck.

Quoting af086 (Reply 54):
I can see US/AA building up CLT as a complimentary hub to MIA. I can see single nonstops from CLT to other major destinations as EZE, SCL, LIM, BOG, UIO, CCS (if Chavez lets them) and etc.

Never going to happen. Why on earth would AA do that when it can serve those markets from Miami, on a short stage length, with higher average fares, and with connections to 99% of the cachement area?

DFW already serves the purpose as a secondary South American hub; AA does not and will not add a third.



a.
User currently offlineLAXdude1023 From India, joined Sep 2006, 7512 posts, RR: 24
Reply 58, posted (1 year 5 months 3 weeks 2 days 6 hours ago) and read 21122 times:

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 51):
From who? I bet there is a lot of oil related traffic. Does AA codeshare with WS?
Quoting c172akula (Reply 55):
Internal folks, and I do believe that WS and AA have started some codeshares on certain flights. I don't know if the DFW-YYC flight is one of them currently.

Part of me is a bit confused on this one. Dont get me wrong, Im thrilled to see a new airline here. That said DFW-YYC is about 75 PDEW and is smaller market than DFW-YYZ, DFW-YVR, and even DFW-YUL. The one advantage I do see is being able to connect people to smaller Canadian cities like YXE, YQR, and YEG that dont have DFW nonstop service.



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User currently offlinecrAAzy From United States of America, joined Jan 2008, 772 posts, RR: 0
Reply 59, posted (1 year 5 months 3 weeks 2 days 6 hours ago) and read 21067 times:
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Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 51):
In fact I can see routes like ORF-MIA being cancelled, unless there is a lot of local or lot of unique destinations on the flight that cant be served over CLT like say CCS, LIM etc.

ORF-MIA has been a solid route at AA for years and is a route that is heavily utilized by military/government traffic into Miami and onwards into South and Central America. In fact, if AA/US do merge the evening flight would probably be an ideal route for the A319.

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 51):
And overfly CLT with RJs...fast way to lose money. AA can do that NOW, they dont need US to do something like that.

What't the difference between and RJ into CLT vs. an RJ into MIA. In fact, overflying CLT on some routes may actual provide enough feed for mainline service into MIA to return on some routes (e.g. IND-MIA)

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 51):
GRU is a horrible example since I have conceeded that Brazil frequencies might be better used from MIA for new service rather than duplicate service. Show me why AA cancels CLT-SXM or CLT-AUA

If you read MY posts above I said that believe that there's a role out of CLT for SOME Caribbean and Central American flights to continue but not deep S. America. AUA and SXM may be good routes to continue out of CLT but many of the same questions still apply. If I lived in BHM and now had the option of connecting in MIA, CLT, DFW where would I connect? Which has the better price? Which has a more convenient time for my needs?

I live in MKE and flew to AUA last summer. On AA I had the choice of connecing MKE-ORD-MIA-AUA, MKE-DFW-AUA, or MKE-DFW-MIA-AUA. I chose MKE-DFW-MIA-AUA for various reasons. If MKE-CLT-AUA would have been an option for me (but it wasn't because it's not AA) I can tell you that I still would not have chosen the flights because they did not meet my needs (F class, mainline, stopover at condo on Miami Beach, connecing with friends from DC area in MIA, etc).

What I'm trying to say is that if AA/US do merge, there are going to be more options for some people and that's a good thing. CLT is not always going to be the best/only/or cheapest option for some people when payscales are the same across the network and the planes are becoming older and more inefficient.


User currently onlineRyanairGuru From Australia, joined Oct 2006, 5204 posts, RR: 4
Reply 60, posted (1 year 5 months 3 weeks 2 days 5 hours ago) and read 20845 times:

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 51):
overfly CLT with RJs...fast way to lose money
Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 51):
I can see routes like ORF-MIA being cancelled

I agree. In 2013 AA would be stupid to launch a host of RJ flying into small South East/Mid Atlantic markets, as you say it would be a fast way to loose money. It could have worked in 2001, but things change...



Taking my local market of GSO, we have 2x MIA, 3x DFW, 3x DCA, 5x PHL, 9x CLT.

DCA and PHL are probably not going to see much change. PHL might go down to 4x, but realistically I don't think that this merger will change much heading north given that AA don't fly to NYC or ORD.

Heading south could be a different story. I'm sure many will flame me for saying this, but I could see MIA going completely and DFW back down to 2x, with an upgauge in capacity to CLT. If I want to head to LAX or SFO or IAH or MSY or anywhere else south/west of here, flying 1000mi on a RJ vs 83mi and then mainline from there will - most likely - be more cost effective. Flying me on an A321 for 2125mi from CLT to LAX is clearly going to be most cost effective than 1235 from LAX to DFW and then on an ER4 for 999mi from DFW to GSO. While I'm sure many will argue that DFW will become the main east-west connecting hub (and I don't doubt that they are right) for small(er) markets such as this one flying RJs for such long distances is not, and will not be, a sound business strategy. Instead, I could see some CLT-GSO flights going to EM9 or even A319.

I could copy and paste this logic to other similar sized markets. RDU is clearly immune, and ORF-DFW is mainline so I can't see that one changing much.

Going with RDU, I could see LAX going to 2x daily. US still has a very strong following in NC, and with the proposed day light flight + a red eye, and morning and evening services heading the other way, then AA/US could wipe the floor with DL.



Worked Hard, Flew Right
User currently offlinebobloblaw From United States of America, joined Jan 2012, 1646 posts, RR: 1
Reply 61, posted (1 year 5 months 3 weeks 2 days 5 hours ago) and read 20832 times:
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Quoting crAAzy (Reply 59):
What't the difference between and RJ into CLT vs. an RJ into MIA.

Cost. Longer stage length on a RJ is a recipe for losing money.

Quoting crAAzy (Reply 59):
In fact, overflying CLT on some routes may actual provide enough feed for mainline service into MIA to return on some routes (e.g. IND-MIA)

Rationalization means not overflying your own hubs.

Quoting crAAzy (Reply 59):
If you read MY posts above I said that believe that there's a role out of CLT for SOME Caribbean and Central American flights to continue but not deep S. America. AUA and SXM may be good routes to continue out of CLT but many of the same questions still apply. If I lived in BHM and now had the option of connecting in MIA, CLT, DFW where would I connect? Which has the better price? Which has a more convenient time for my needs?

Well not DFW. I am not interested in South America. Tell me which markets will be cancelled from CLT. SJO?

Quoting crAAzy (Reply 59):
CLT is not always going to be the best/only/or cheapest option for some people when payscales are the same across the network and the planes are becoming older and more inefficient.

For most places in the USA, CLT is a better connect point than MIA going to the Caribbean. Including from major cities like DCA and BOS ( I dont think AA will cut service from MA to DCA or BOS).

Quoting crAAzy (Reply 59):
I live in MKE and flew to AUA last summer. On AA I had the choice of connecing MKE-ORD-MIA-AUA, MKE-DFW-AUA, or MKE-DFW-MIA-AUA. I chose MKE-DFW-MIA-AUA for various reasons. If MKE-CLT-AUA would have been an option for me (but it wasn't because it's not AA) I can tell you that I still would not have chosen the flights because they did not meet my needs (F class, mainline, stopover at condo on Miami Beach, connecing with friends from DC area in MIA, etc).

You example is not relevant because you have so many parameters that dont apply to 99.9% of the traveling public. For MKE, the best connect point to AUA from the airline's standpoint is CLT, not MIA.

Now I have argued with people about this merger from the beginning and Ive been right all along. There were those who insisted that Delta would be a bidder. I said they wouldnt. There were those who insisted that US and DL would breakup AA, I said they wouldnt and that idea was nonsense.

I am telling you CLT will not be seriously downsized and certainly not in favor of MIA. In fact it is the MIA domestic RJ flights that will be at risk unless they have high local or lots of unique connections beyond MIA that cannot be reached by CLT. Brazil-CLT is a candidate to move to MIA but that is it. I worked in Network Planning at major airlines from 1994-2006 and I know what I am talking about. I have worked on mergers and acqusitions before.

Tell me exactly what Caribbean points will be cancelled to CLT in favor of MIA.


The thinking here that AA/US is like UA/CO or DL/NW is incorrect. This is not a merger to reduce capacity and close hubs. This is a merger to make AA BIGGER and to stregthen its presence on the east coast.


User currently offlineMCOflyer From United States of America, joined Jun 2006, 8664 posts, RR: 15
Reply 62, posted (1 year 5 months 3 weeks 2 days 5 hours ago) and read 20779 times:

I see routes to and from MCO growing as MCO has a lot of traffic to offer to hubs. As for CLT, I see: Growth. I see more routes cut from PHL with them being moved to JFK than CLT.

KH



Never be afraid to stand up for who you are.
User currently offlineN908AW From United States of America, joined Aug 2005, 922 posts, RR: 1
Reply 63, posted (1 year 5 months 3 weeks 2 days 5 hours ago) and read 20514 times:

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 61):
I am telling you CLT will not be seriously downsized and certainly not in favor of MIA. In fact it is the MIA domestic RJ flights that will be at risk unless they have high local or lots of unique connections beyond MIA that cannot be reached by CLT.

But even then, wouldn't most of those "unique connections" be either demanded enough to warrant a flight from CLT (which has far more western connections than MIA right now), or be so low in demand that it's not worth it for AA/US to save people the hassle of double connecting?

To me, MIA is a great gateway to the Caribbean (less so without as much MIA/SJU regional flying, but still), useful for South America, and a dependable destination for American in the winter. Beyond that, every metric you would use to judge a "hub" in its purest form leans towards continuing to use CLT as your premier hub in the southeast. Far enough north, south, east, and west (if that makes sense) for not only travel to/from the southeast, but it also works as a (relatively) pain-free connection beyond the East Coast. It's a terminal bred through and through to be a connecting hub for US. It's got the O&D. It's got none of the air traffic headaches that JFK and ORD have.



'Cause you're on ATA again, and on ATA, you're on vacation!
User currently offlinemah4546 From Sweden, joined Jan 2001, 32621 posts, RR: 72
Reply 64, posted (1 year 5 months 3 weeks 2 days 4 hours ago) and read 20296 times:

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 61):
In fact it is the MIA domestic RJ flights that will be at risk unless they have high local or lots of unique connections beyond MIA that cannot be reached by CLT

They are all good local markets, and they are good feeders for the MIA Caribbean market. ORF, RIC, and SDF are high fare local markets from Miami with limited capacity. These routes work; and will probably go to ERJ-175s.

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 61):
The thinking here that AA/US is like UA/CO or DL/NW is incorrect. This is not a merger to reduce capacity and close hubs. This is a merger to make AA BIGGER and to stregthen its presence on the east coast.

There is going to be capacity rationalization. CLT is too big for the combined networks. What it does today for US, it will share that purpose with not only MIA and DFW, but also ORD, if the carriers merge. The hub will still be huge - the second largest hub of the combined airline - but huge will still see it reduced by 100-150 daily flights.



a.
User currently offlinecrAAzy From United States of America, joined Jan 2008, 772 posts, RR: 0
Reply 65, posted (1 year 5 months 3 weeks 2 days 4 hours ago) and read 20139 times:
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Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 61):
Cost. Longer stage length on a RJ is a recipe for losing money.

Unless that flying is contracted out at a cheaper price.

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 61):
Rationalization means not overflying your own hubs.

Not true when you have multiple hubs servicing the same catchment areas with different missions.

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 61):
Tell me which markets will be cancelled from CLT. SJO?

Shortly after AA/US start operating on the same certificates I can see the following international routes gone from CLT:

I don't have specific data on any of the US's CLT routes but from a rationalization standpoint which of the following routes would be better:

LIR (CLT, DFW, MIA) which is going to draw better from PHL, DCA, IND, LGA, JAX, TLH, MEM, BNA, CVG, BHM, XNA, GPT, ORF, VPS, MSN, MKE, ORD, CLE, DAY, etc. Would the market be better served with 2 or 3 flighs a day to/from MIA and DFW or 1 from CLT, 1 from DFW and 2 from MIA?

If AA/US can sell more premium seats on their 777s, A340s, 763s out of PHL, JFK, MIA, DFW, CLT, or ORD by eliminating flights from one of these areas then you bet they are going to try to do it. The big disadvantage CLT has and people need to realize it that it's not a bad hub but when you stack it up against AA's cornerstones in the Eastern/Central US (JFK, MIA, DFW, ORD) for premium routes and traffic on redundant international flights in the system it's going to lose almost everytime.

Do the same for the following:

BGI (CLT or MIA)
UVF (CLT or MIA)
ANU (CLT or MIA)
SJD (CLT, DFW, MIA)
RIO (CLT, MIA, JFK)
GRU (CLT, MIA, JFK, DFW)
MAD (CLT, MIA, JFK, DFW, PHL)
DUB (CLT, JFK, ORD, PHL)
CDG (CLT, PHL, JFK, MIA, ORD, DFW)
FRA (CLT, PHL, DFW)
FCO (CLT, PHL, JFK)
BZE (CLT, MIA, DFW)

A combined AA/US are going to look at the numbers and all the data and how can we become more efficient, where's the money and how do we get it and how do we keep it? The answers aren't simple and there are many variables involved but to simply think that CLT is going to remain the best place to serve these routes because it worked for US would be foolish if AA/US combine.


User currently offlineSANFan From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 5367 posts, RR: 12
Reply 66, posted (1 year 5 months 3 weeks 2 days 4 hours ago) and read 20174 times:

Quoting AeroWesty (Reply 3):
Does anyone have any opinion or historical facts to share on what impact the AA/US merger will have on the DCA beyond perimeter routes? Both airlines have flights which take advantage of exemptions to the rule
Quoting LHCVG (Reply 26):
My guess is the SAN and LAS flights are safe, as is the legacy AA LAX. The question to me would be the 3 PHX slots
Quoting AeroWesty (Reply 39):
I realize that the DCA beyond perimeter route authorities have come about over time via various means, and would think these rights would be the most sought after by other airlines if any needed to be released as a condition of the merger


I needless to say am curious (and a bit concerned) about the current SAN-DCA flight on US. This route, like the AA LAX-DCA one, were part of last year's DOT proceedings and were picked by the cx themselves. They are both subject to re-assignment (read: cancellation) by the cx at any time with no notice or other restrictions. I do hope that things will not get to a point where the SAN-route might become a pawn in some maneuvering by the "new" carrier or the DOT involving slot reductions, or whatever. (I know that AA would not surrender LA-DC under any circumstances.)

The 3 PHX-DCA exemptions were granted years earlier and under totally different circumstances and (I believe) can't be dropped or swapped without (literally) an act of Congress. Of course that could all be swept aside by the DOT as a part of a merger approval.

I agree that perhaps at least one of those PHX awards might very well go somewhere (but not without a fight first from Senator John McCain!) (In fact I wonder if he will try to get some requirement entered into any merger agreement that the PHX hub NOT be dismantled or even reduced slightly?)

bb


User currently offlineAeroWesty From United States of America, joined Oct 2004, 20394 posts, RR: 62
Reply 67, posted (1 year 5 months 3 weeks 2 days 4 hours ago) and read 20091 times:

Quoting SANFan (Reply 66):
I needless to say am curious (and a bit concerned) about the current SAN-DCA flight on US.
'fan, you were in the back of my mind whilst typing up my original post.   I'm going to have to do some research on how each series of exemptions came about—it will be a hot topic for sure around here when the merger gets to the point of being submitted for regulatory approval.

If anyone has any info to share in regards to the awarding of the DCA exemptions, or links to old threads, it'd be appreciated. I don't think we'd need to open a new thread to talk about it in depth, as this is the official "routes" thread.



International Homo of Mystery
User currently offlinestrfyr51 From United States of America, joined Apr 2012, 1098 posts, RR: 1
Reply 68, posted (1 year 5 months 3 weeks 2 days 4 hours ago) and read 20097 times:
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Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 10):

I SERIOUSLY doubt PHL-Asia at all, what I would bet is PHL-LAX-NRT, OR PHL-LAX -HKG/ mainland China.
I do not see an overfly of a west coast Hub as I don't believe that PHL can generate that kind of passenger load to Asia even if all of Philadelphia's China Town residents flew every day! I wish it were so since Philly is my home town. But I SERIOUSLY doubt it. Philadelphia's mayor is wishing at best.


User currently offlinemah4546 From Sweden, joined Jan 2001, 32621 posts, RR: 72
Reply 69, posted (1 year 5 months 3 weeks 2 days 3 hours ago) and read 20045 times:

Quoting strfyr51 (Reply 68):
I SERIOUSLY doubt PHL-Asia at all, what I would bet is PHL-LAX-NRT, OR PHL-LAX -HKG/ mainland China.
I do not see an overfly of a west coast Hub as I don't believe that PHL can generate that kind of passenger load to Asia even if all of Philadelphia's China Town residents flew every day! I wish it were so since Philly is my home town. But I SERIOUSLY doubt it. Philadelphia's mayor is wishing at best.

Traffic statistics proove otherwise.

Philadelphia-Asia is absolutely large enough for a daily non-stop.



a.
User currently offlineWAC From United States of America, joined Nov 2008, 275 posts, RR: 0
Reply 70, posted (1 year 5 months 3 weeks 2 days 3 hours ago) and read 19999 times:

CLT will become the MEM of AA/US...slowly de-hubbed...no real reason for it with JFK-PHL-DCA

User currently offlinecapitalflyer From United States of America, joined Nov 2010, 342 posts, RR: 0
Reply 71, posted (1 year 5 months 3 weeks 2 days 2 hours ago) and read 19498 times:

Quoting AeroWesty (Reply 3):
What are the odds that any of these flights will be an issue in the release of DCA slots which is expected in order for the merger to gain regulatory approval?

I would say the odds are really good that we will have a feeding frenzy in a few months with a bunch of slots available. On another thread a poster commented that the merged airline would control something like 2/3 of the slots. Ain't no way DOT will let that happen. You could see a couple dozen slots up for grabs.

With the reduction in slots, I would expect less regional/express flying and more mainline. Less connections as well (which would be good as DCA is an inconvenient connecting airport).

This might result in AA closing their IAD station. They have only 9 flights daily, 4xDFW, 3xLAX, and 2xMIA. Maybe they keep the LAX if they can't get at least 1 additional beyond perimeter slot pair.

Overall, I would see them having to let go of at least a couple of their beyond perimeter slot pairs. I think SAN is toast, but likely someone else will gladly fly to SAN. Same with LAS (only 1 flight a day). Likely they will concentrate on keeping LAX and PHX.


User currently offlinemah4546 From Sweden, joined Jan 2001, 32621 posts, RR: 72
Reply 72, posted (1 year 5 months 3 weeks 2 days 2 hours ago) and read 19510 times:

Quoting capitalflyer (Reply 71):
This might result in AA closing their IAD station. They have only 9 flights daily, 4xDFW, 3xLAX, and 2xMIA. Maybe they keep the LAX if they can't get at least 1 additional beyond perimeter slot pair.

Yeah, that's pretty much never going to happen.

Why do people love to forget that Dulles serves northern Virginia - one of the most densely populated areas of the U.S?



a.
User currently offlinecapitalflyer From United States of America, joined Nov 2010, 342 posts, RR: 0
Reply 73, posted (1 year 5 months 3 weeks 2 days 1 hour ago) and read 19305 times:

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 72):
Dulles serves northern Virginia

And DCA is located in Arlington, the densest part of NOVA.


The combined airline will fly to just DFW, CLT, MIA, and LAX. I hardly see this as any kind of desire to serve IAD except for connections. They have a total of 17 daily flights between the two of them, 8 to CLT, 4 to DFW.

Don't forget that IAD is a fortress hub for UA, which also has LAX as a west coast hub and flies to MIA just as often as AA. MIA will be gone, LAX might have 1, rest will go to CLT and DFW for connections. I would imagine ops will be combined at Z gates. But if costs dictate, again I could see IAD closing.

IAD's future is continued international growth to the ME and South Asia and getting UA to pony up for a new concourse and trying to attract more LCCs.


User currently offlineAeroWesty From United States of America, joined Oct 2004, 20394 posts, RR: 62
Reply 74, posted (1 year 5 months 3 weeks 2 days 1 hour ago) and read 19228 times:

Quoting capitalflyer (Reply 71):
I would say the odds are really good that we will have a feeding frenzy in a few months with a bunch of slots available.

And as we know, a.net loves the smell of blood swirling in the Jet-A in the morning!

Quoting capitalflyer (Reply 71):
This might result in AA closing their IAD station.

I don't think AA's IAD station is in danger of closing. AA has a long history of a wide array of transcon flights to/from LAX, plus this route continues to support the QF flights at LAX.



International Homo of Mystery
User currently offlinesouthwest737500 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 75, posted (1 year 5 months 3 weeks 2 days 1 hour ago) and read 19184 times:

Quoting WAC (Reply 70):

They'll be a reduction but come on think for a second that will most likely NOT happen


User currently offlinecrAAzy From United States of America, joined Jan 2008, 772 posts, RR: 0
Reply 76, posted (1 year 5 months 3 weeks 2 days 1 hour ago) and read 19165 times:
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Quoting mah4546 (Reply 72):

Yeah, that's pretty much never going to happen.

Why do people love to forget that Dulles serves northern Virginia - one of the most densely populated areas of the U.S?


I'm not sure ... it's got to be a combination of not knowing the area and thinking no one wants/can compete against UA there. A US/AA merger is going to make a big difference in the area and I think they'd be very foolish not to take advantage of the changing dynamics of the FF base in the area.

If anything a combined AA/US will likely grow a little at IAD. They'll already serve LAX, DFW, MIA, CLT and I wouldn't be surprised to see a few additional flights into JFK, PHL, and ORD depending on how the new network ultimately shakes out, especially with Asian routes.


User currently offlineEricR From United States of America, joined Jul 2010, 1900 posts, RR: 1
Reply 77, posted (1 year 5 months 3 weeks 2 days 1 hour ago) and read 19161 times:

Surprised no one has brought up the return of AA to DME via either ORD, JFK, MIA.

User currently offlinePHX787 From Japan, joined Mar 2012, 7233 posts, RR: 17
Reply 78, posted (1 year 5 months 3 weeks 2 days ago) and read 19031 times:

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 30):
What about it? It's even more unlikely to happen under an AA/US merger than if US remains alone.

Why?
BA 288/289 is not about US (BA is not Starr Alliance); it's about the fact that this flight is posting awesome load factors every day.

There's a growing demand for a flight to Japan. Despite LAX being close by, the market here is beginning to demand a direct flight due to the fact that it's 1) Direct and 2) not going through LAX or SAN.

The demand comes from many Japanese companies beginning to set up shop here in the valley, escaping the economic issues of California.



One of the FB admins for PHX Spotters. "Zach the Expat!"
User currently offlineFreshSide3 From United States of America, joined Nov 2012, 213 posts, RR: 0
Reply 79, posted (1 year 5 months 3 weeks 2 days ago) and read 18880 times:

Quoting EricR (Reply 77):
Surprised no one has brought up the return of AA to DME via either ORD, JFK, MIA.

Especially since UA gave up on DME. My guess is ORD would be the best, since you already have service on Russian carriers at JFK/MIA to MOW airports and DL/JFK-SVO. However, what really needs to optimize the flight is to include SFO into it, since it has a big Russian market. Best bet would be a thru trip SFO-ORD-DME. And also more code-shares and other cooperation with partner Sibir/S7.


User currently offlinemah4546 From Sweden, joined Jan 2001, 32621 posts, RR: 72
Reply 80, posted (1 year 5 months 3 weeks 2 days ago) and read 18852 times:

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 78):
BA 288/289 is not about US (BA is not Starr Alliance); it's about the fact that this flight is posting awesome load factors every day.

So? How is that relevant? There is good demand between Phoenix and the UK, as well as Germany. It makes sense the flight fills.

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 78):
There's a growing demand for a flight to Japan. Despite LAX being close by, the market here is beginning to demand a direct flight due to the fact that it's 1) Direct and 2) not going through LAX or SAN.

The local market is small and isn't growing. The demand isn't there, the average fares are low, to all of Asia from Phoenix, not just Tokyo. MIA and PHL are much larger market to Asia, and will het connected before PHX ever would be.



a.
User currently offlinecommavia From United States of America, joined Apr 2005, 11463 posts, RR: 61
Reply 81, posted (1 year 5 months 3 weeks 2 days ago) and read 18793 times:

Quoting capitalflyer (Reply 73):
And DCA is located in Arlington, the densest part of NOVA.

The combined airline will fly to just DFW, CLT, MIA, and LAX. I hardly see this as any kind of desire to serve IAD except for connections. They have a total of 17 daily flights between the two of them, 8 to CLT, 4 to DFW.

Don't forget that IAD is a fortress hub for UA, which also has LAX as a west coast hub and flies to MIA just as often as AA. MIA will be gone, LAX might have 1, rest will go to CLT and DFW for connections. I would imagine ops will be combined at Z gates. But if costs dictate, again I could see IAD closing.

I think that is highly, highly unlikely. IAD serves a market distinct and different from DCA. There is still a compelling business reason to serve that market, even if just with a relatively lighly schedule.

Quoting EricR (Reply 77):
Surprised no one has brought up the return of AA to DME via either ORD, JFK, MIA.

I could see it - if it were to happen, I would expect a 763 from JFK.

[Edited 2013-02-08 20:32:06]

User currently offlineABQopsHP From United States of America, joined May 2006, 848 posts, RR: 3
Reply 82, posted (1 year 5 months 3 weeks 2 days ago) and read 18745 times:

Quoting southwest737500 (Reply 75):

Exactly! That would be a stupid move, to dehub CLT. AA has had a large hole in the route structure ever since they shuttered the BNA and RDU hubs. CLT is just far enough apart from ORD MIA and NYC to fill a need. I see PHX having more overlap with LAX, than CLT having any with another hub. As they digest the 2 operations, there will be adjustments made to all the hubs, and fleets. Just like DL/NW and UA/CO.

JD CRP



A line is evidence that other people exist.
User currently offlineKBUF From United States of America, joined Apr 2005, 516 posts, RR: 0
Reply 83, posted (1 year 5 months 3 weeks 1 day 23 hours ago) and read 18631 times:

This is as good a chance as any for BUF to get AA mainline back. They'd probably have to bring back BUF-DFW and/or start BUF-MIA, though (currently, BUF's only AA service is Eagle to ORD).


"Starting today, the Buffalo Sabres' reason for existence will be to win a Stanley Cup."-Terry Pegula, February 22, 2011
User currently offlineSANFan From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 5367 posts, RR: 12
Reply 84, posted (1 year 5 months 3 weeks 1 day 23 hours ago) and read 18635 times:

Quoting capitalflyer (Reply 71):
Overall, I would see them having to let go of at least a couple of their beyond perimeter slot pairs. I think SAN is toast, but likely someone else will gladly fly to SAN. Same with LAS (only 1 flight a day). Likely they will concentrate on keeping LAX and PHX.

Interesting post. I'm curious why you say, "I think SAN is toast." And yes, I'm sure someone else would love to fly it -- particularly a certain airline based in SEA -- but there would have to be a time and money-consuming hearing to determine what would be become of any beyond-perimeter slots that are surrendered. (And I don't know if anyone, including the govt would want to go through that again so soon.)

And they will be interested in keeping PHX -- 3 nonstops in one market -- why? This will obviously depend on what happens to the PHX hub; if it is dimished or closed, why would the new carrier want or need 3 daily r/t in the market? If it remains a hub, you feel that the carrier would rather have 3 nonstops in that market with none in the SAN-market?

I do notice that on the current schedules, LAS-DCA doesn't even operate daily. I don't know if that's indicitive of anything in particular but it could be telling.

bb


User currently offlineCIDFlyer From United States of America, joined Apr 2005, 2273 posts, RR: 3
Reply 85, posted (1 year 5 months 3 weeks 1 day 23 hours ago) and read 18574 times:

Quoting WAC (Reply 70):
CLT will become the MEM of AA/US...slowly de-hubbed...no real reason for it with JFK-PHL-DCA

if anyone seriously believes this then they need to look at a map. JFK-PHL-DCA are nowhere near CLT, and for that matter neither is MIA, ORD or DFW. CLT is in perfect position in the new AA and will likely be the 2nd or 3rd largest hub in the system (I see their big hubs going to be ORD/DFW/CLT). PHL and MIA will be the 4th/5th largest.

I cant see why anyone would think CLT would be closed. Doesnt even make sense, you'd essentially be handing over the keys to the southeast and fastest growing area of the country to DL. Its not going to happen, AA is going to be a big competitor to DL for SE traffic.


User currently offlinePHX787 From Japan, joined Mar 2012, 7233 posts, RR: 17
Reply 86, posted (1 year 5 months 3 weeks 1 day 23 hours ago) and read 18573 times:

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 80):
The local market is small and isn't growing. The demand isn't there, the average fares are low, to all of Asia from Phoenix, not just Tokyo. MIA and PHL are much larger market to Asia, and will het connected before PHX ever would be.

It's growing but slowly. The demand itself is growing. I ran into a contact of mine who actually asked me to sign something to give to the Japanese consulate in Los Angeles to see if they can persuade ANA/JAL to start a flight here.


MIA is too far for a profitable flight to asia, but I will give PHL the benefit of the doubt here.



One of the FB admins for PHX Spotters. "Zach the Expat!"
User currently offlineCIDFlyer From United States of America, joined Apr 2005, 2273 posts, RR: 3
Reply 87, posted (1 year 5 months 3 weeks 1 day 23 hours ago) and read 18516 times:

I also see CLT gaining some flights to some stronger AA stations in the great lakes/midwest area. Places like PIA/CID/CMI/FWA etc and also places like MSN/MLI/GRR/SPI could see a flight to CLT. US started DSM and OMA last year and those flights are going strong.

User currently offlineckfred From United States of America, joined Apr 2001, 5181 posts, RR: 1
Reply 88, posted (1 year 5 months 3 weeks 1 day 22 hours ago) and read 18373 times:

Quoting STT757 (Reply 5):
AA is the surving company, they still have the judgement against them in Israel. So unless they back track and pay the judgement, something AA hasn't done in the past 13 years, they're not going to fly to TLV. They pay the judgement or cut the route, we had a thread about a year or two ago discussing the former TWA employee's judgement against AA. With interest it's been mentioned to be upwards of $20 million, perhaps $30 million.

Has the judgment been at all addressed in the bankruptcy proceedings?

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 57):
Never going to happen. Why on earth would AA do that when it can serve those markets from Miami, on a short stage length, with higher average fares, and with connections to 99% of the cachement area?DFW already serves the purpose as a secondary South American hub; AA does not and will not add a third.

Considering that AA backed off trying to add Latin American service out of ORD, other than Mexico, you make a valid point. Other than the vacation spots in Mexico, I can't see AA/US keeping any flights out of CLT to Central and South America.


User currently offlinemah4546 From Sweden, joined Jan 2001, 32621 posts, RR: 72
Reply 89, posted (1 year 5 months 3 weeks 1 day 22 hours ago) and read 18307 times:

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 86):
MIA is too far for a profitable flight to asia, but I will give PHL the benefit of the doubt here.

Except it is not. Miami and Philadelphia will have service to two or three cities in Asia before Phoenix has service to one. Miami has the benefit of being a high fare and premium market to southern Asia. People pay more to fly one way from Miami to Hong Kong or Taipei then they do to fly from Pheonix to Asia round trip. Oh, and Miami-Hong Kong is a larger market than Phoenix-Tokyo.

Also, if anybody would like to sign my petition for non-stop St. Louis-Shangahi service , contact me. The fact that I'm asking people by default means there is demand.

[Edited 2013-02-08 22:41:59]


a.
User currently offlineFreshSide3 From United States of America, joined Nov 2012, 213 posts, RR: 0
Reply 90, posted (1 year 5 months 3 weeks 1 day 18 hours ago) and read 17616 times:

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 89):

Also, if anybody would like to sign my petition for non-stop St. Louis-Shangahi service , contact me. The fact that I'm asking people by default means there is demand.

It would be interesting to hear what would justify having STL-PVG service......it doesn't appear that it would be a viable route, at least on the surface. But than again, I am also a champion for certain routes that don't appear obvious to most, either, so I can relate to what you are trying to do. Please let me know what reasons you think this will work.


User currently offlineAeroWesty From United States of America, joined Oct 2004, 20394 posts, RR: 62
Reply 91, posted (1 year 5 months 3 weeks 1 day 17 hours ago) and read 17534 times:

Quoting FreshSide3 (Reply 90):
It would be interesting to hear what would justify having STL-PVG service

He forgot to use the sarcasm font.  



International Homo of Mystery
User currently offlineLAXdude1023 From India, joined Sep 2006, 7512 posts, RR: 24
Reply 92, posted (1 year 5 months 3 weeks 1 day 13 hours ago) and read 17213 times:

Ive read talk of Africa throughout some of these thread, so I thought I would chime in with some data. Below are the largest Africa markets from the AA hubs in PDEW. Bear in mind the usual talk of market stimulation:

MIA:

Total Africa PDEW: 200

JNB: 20
CPT: 9
CAI: 8
LOS: 6

ORD:

Total Africa PDEW: 210

LOS: 22
CAI: 20
JNB: 19
NBO: 15
ACC: 9
CPT: 5

DFW:

Total Africa PDEW: 198

LOS: 23
NBO: 20
JNB: 10
ADD: 9
CAI: 8
ACC: 6

NYC:

Total Africa PDEW: 1297

CAI: 275
LOS: 123
JNB: 118
CMN: 100
ACC: 95
NBO: 58
CPT: 43
DKR: 40

Im almost thinking that it would be better for AA to enter Africa from NYC as opposed to the others. Even with the competition, the market is just so much larger.



Stewed...Lewd...Crude...Irreverent...Belligerent
User currently offlinesouthwest737500 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 93, posted (1 year 5 months 3 weeks 1 day 13 hours ago) and read 17151 times:

I expect to get ripped on this post

I think it would be cool if the new AA and AS worked together on CLT-SEA. The reason I say this is AS is a great airline and they bring so many connecting opportunities. For the summer have 2 or 3 AA flights and 1 AS (summer) 2 AA and 1 AS (winter)


User currently offlineLAXdude1023 From India, joined Sep 2006, 7512 posts, RR: 24
Reply 94, posted (1 year 5 months 3 weeks 1 day 12 hours ago) and read 17088 times:

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 78):
Why?
BA 288/289 is not about US (BA is not Starr Alliance); it's about the fact that this flight is posting awesome load factors every day.

But its apples and oranges. I cant say, DFW-GRU is one of the most profitable routes in AA's networks so therefore, DFW-JNB would print money. On the contrary, it wouldnt.

As far as comparing MIA, PHL, and PHX to Asia, it breaks down like this by local market size in PDEW not including the Indian subcontinent:

MIA:

Total PDEW to Asia: 378

MNL: 66
NRT: 32
HKG: 31
PVG: 29
ICN: 24
PEK: 19
SYD: 18
JKT: 14
SIN: 10

PHX:

Total PDEW to Asia: 212

NRT: 26
ICN: 21
MNL: 16
PVG: 14
SGN: 11
TPE: 10


PHL:

Total PDEW to Asia: 215

ICN: 17
NRT: 17
PVG: 17
MNL: 16
PEK: 16
HKG: 14
SYD: 13

One thing that it important to consider when looking at PHL is that the area bleeds a lot of Asia traffic to the NYC airports because of the lack of a nonstop flight. I suspect PHL-Asia is probably closer in size to MIA-Asia.

Also when comparing MIA-Asia to PHX-Asia, both are mostly low yielding with the exception of MIA-HKG. However, MIA has an ace up its sleave in the form of MCO. If a flight could be marketed as a Florida-Asia flight, then it might work. PHX would need to try and become the gateway to the Grand Canyon, but LAS has that distinction. The Grand Canyon does receive many Asia tourists.

I dont think its a matter of filling the plane, that could be done from any of these three with the help of connections. Its doing it profitably.



Stewed...Lewd...Crude...Irreverent...Belligerent
User currently onlineLHCVG From United States of America, joined May 2009, 1546 posts, RR: 1
Reply 95, posted (1 year 5 months 3 weeks 1 day 10 hours ago) and read 16809 times:

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 78):
There's a growing demand for a flight to Japan. Despite LAX being close by, the market here is beginning to demand a direct flight due to the fact that it's 1) Direct and 2) not going through LAX or SAN.

If the demand were that good, or growing by any substantial amount, there would either be a flight today or serious talk from the airline(s) about opening one. This is the same problem we run into with your CVG arguments - if these new routes or new carriers on existing routes were really that viable, airlines would be directly mentioning them in serious discussions, rather than the talk coming from unsubstantiated and speculative rumors from unnamed sources, pilots, friends, etc.

None of this is to say your assessment isn't necessarily true. But there is as yet no firm evidence of what you state as a fact -- that PHX has sufficient demand at reasonable enough (for the airline) fare levels to support n/s Asia traffic. See below:

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 80):
The local market is small and isn't growing. The demand isn't there, the average fares are low, to all of Asia from Phoenix, not just Tokyo. MIA and PHL are much larger market to Asia, and will het connected before PHX ever would be.

PHX may be much closer to Asia than MIA, but MIA has a stronger market for Asia traffic. MIA also is in a better position to offer one-stop connecting service between two distant regions (Asia and South and Latin America), to complement the O&D traffic. PHX would only offer another alternative for Asia connections in close proximity to two major Asia gateways from a market that has weak O&D at weak yields.


User currently offlinePHX787 From Japan, joined Mar 2012, 7233 posts, RR: 17
Reply 96, posted (1 year 5 months 3 weeks 1 day 9 hours ago) and read 16701 times:

Well look at this:

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 94):
Total PDEW to Asia: 212

That's enough for a daily low-densidty JL or NH int'l 787, is it not?

Quoting LHCVG (Reply 95):
None of this is to say your assessment isn't necessarily true. But there is as yet no firm evidence of what you state as a fact -- that PHX has sufficient demand at reasonable enough (for the airline) fare levels to support n/s Asia traffic. See below:

Well see above here:

I don't know why he said it's not growing, because frankly, it is. I hear from my contacts here in the valley every day about how businesses in cali are proposing to move here due to the better economic conditions that Arizona has to offer (not to mention the amazing weather). The effects of the Californian economic crisis will be made well-apparent within the next few years, and according to one contact, it will be a "mass exodus" of asian business into the valley.

Heck this contact himself moved back into the valley from california (ASU grad 2009) after he convinced his boss that they could make much more of a profit here.

So it's growing. You'll see soon enough...and the addition of an Asian route from PHX to NRT or some other asian hub will only make that growth expand.
I'm not comparing apples to oranges here either. The BA flight is here (and is expanding to daily) because of the high demand, and the demand for asian service is growing.



One of the FB admins for PHX Spotters. "Zach the Expat!"
User currently onlineLHCVG From United States of America, joined May 2009, 1546 posts, RR: 1
Reply 97, posted (1 year 5 months 3 weeks 1 day 8 hours ago) and read 16619 times:

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 96):
That's enough for a daily low-densidty JL or NH int'l 787, is it not?

Depends on the yield. That's enough to fill a single daily widebody, but just barely, so yields would have to be pretty good. Edit: As noted below, PDEW to ASIA not to any specific destination. That would be decent for NRT, but not spread across a few places.

To your second point: again, it may well be growing, and I'd bet it is. But how much, how fast, and at what price is that group willing to travel? Correct answers: not enough, not fast enough, and not high enough.

So it's growing indeed, but that has zero relevance to a European flight on BA. That only says there is sufficient traffic to the UK and some onward European (and other random) connections, nothing about Asia. BA just says that PHX can support int'l service to one place, once a day. That's it, nothing more.

And yet again, you continue to rely on "contacts", all of which are unnamed, or like your infamous pilot stories, uncredible by nature. There is nothing you've provided here that is solid, verifiable evidence from a credible and knowledgeable source. Maybe your contact is spot-on, but nobody relevant has publicly stated anything about Asia from PHX. What I mean by relevant: someone in route planning or revenue management from an airline mentioning serious consideration being given to such service (emphasis on serious, not just "well we might take a look at this someday"), or a credible airport source with material knowledge of substantive, latter-stage negotiations with a carrier(s), or a known expert in the field who has weighed in with a considered opinion and analysis.

For example, there was an article a couple months ago saying that the KCAB was in negotiations with B6 to lure them to CVG. There hasn't been anything else since to indicate that B6 is doing anything other than testing the waters and seeing what might be on the table or potentially profitable. That doesn't warrant us saying that B6 is nigh coming to our beloved CVG. Likewise, talk of PHX-Asia is speculation at best at this point. If you have a knowledgeable and credible source like I described above, then fine. But to my knowledge no one has produced such confirmation.

[Edited 2013-02-09 11:51:22]

User currently offlineB747forever From Sweden, joined May 2007, 17056 posts, RR: 10
Reply 98, posted (1 year 5 months 3 weeks 1 day 8 hours ago) and read 16635 times:

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 96):
That's enough for a daily low-densidty JL or NH int'l 787, is it not?

You are quoting the wrong number.

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 94):
PHX:

Total PDEW to Asia: 212

NRT: 26

26 PDEW is more like it. That doesnt even fill a turboprop!



Work Hard, Fly Right
User currently offlinemah4546 From Sweden, joined Jan 2001, 32621 posts, RR: 72
Reply 99, posted (1 year 5 months 3 weeks 1 day 8 hours ago) and read 16673 times:

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 94):
One thing that it important to consider when looking at PHL is that the area bleeds a lot of Asia traffic to the NYC airports because of the lack of a nonstop flight. I suspect PHL-Asia is probably closer in size to MIA-Asia.

But Miami bleeds significantly to MCO, too.

Another thing to note is that the traffic figures are 2011, when Japan traffic was hit hard due to the earthquake. MIANRT traditionally has been closer to 50 PDEW, and I'm sure the others took a hit, too.

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 94):
Also when comparing MIA-Asia to PHX-Asia, both are mostly low yielding with the exception of MIA-HKG.

Not just HKG - MIASIN, MIACAN and surprisingly MIATPE are all very high fare ($1,350+ o/w) markets.



a.
User currently offlineAeroWesty From United States of America, joined Oct 2004, 20394 posts, RR: 62
Reply 100, posted (1 year 5 months 3 weeks 1 day 8 hours ago) and read 16575 times:

Quoting B747forever (Reply 98):
26 PDEW is more like it. That doesnt even fill a turboprop!

And even then you have to slice that number in half to get the flow in each direction.



International Homo of Mystery
User currently offlineB747forever From Sweden, joined May 2007, 17056 posts, RR: 10
Reply 101, posted (1 year 5 months 3 weeks 1 day 8 hours ago) and read 16548 times:

Quoting AeroWesty (Reply 100):

And even then you have to slice that number in half to get the flow in each direction.

People Daily Each Way  



Work Hard, Fly Right
User currently offlineAeroWesty From United States of America, joined Oct 2004, 20394 posts, RR: 62
Reply 102, posted (1 year 5 months 3 weeks 1 day 8 hours ago) and read 16572 times:

Quoting B747forever (Reply 101):
People Daily Each Way  

Check reply #1:

How To Find Pdew And Yeilds On Routes? (by jonathanxxxx Jul 24 2011 in Civil Aviation)

 



International Homo of Mystery
User currently offlineIrishAyes From United States of America, joined Jan 2008, 2167 posts, RR: 15
Reply 103, posted (1 year 5 months 3 weeks 1 day 8 hours ago) and read 16550 times:

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 92):
Im almost thinking that it would be better for AA to enter Africa from NYC as opposed to the others. Even with the competition, the market is just so much larger.

No kidding. The bottleneck here is that AA/OW lacks a decent partner in Africa. ST has KQ and Star has ET. I'm still hoping for that MIAJNB flight to eventually come online.

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 94):
MIA has an ace up its sleave in the form of MCO. If a flight could be marketed as a Florida-Asia flight, then it might work. PHX would need to try and become the gateway to the Grand Canyon, but LAS has that distinction. The Grand Canyon does receive many Asia tourists.

+ Latin America feed. PHX does not have that.

I'm visiting DFW this weekend at home, and I've been getting questions about the potential of re-launching India flights (not on this thread, but separately from friends and family) since the ORD-DEL flights were so popular. I personally don't see it happening anytime soon, knowing that AI is literally offering dirt cheap r/t premium fares and flooding the US-India market with bottom barrel seats and AA's cost structure, even post-exit, would struggle to compete against AI profitably. However, one might think that with a combined AA-US in the NorthEast, the potential for a nonstop from PHL or JFK could theoretically work this time around...thoughts?



next flights: msp-phx-slc, msp-mdw, ord-sju, sju-dfw-ord, msp-dfw, dfw-phl, phl-msp, jfk-icn, icn-hkg-bkk-cdg
User currently offlineB747forever From Sweden, joined May 2007, 17056 posts, RR: 10
Reply 104, posted (1 year 5 months 3 weeks 1 day 8 hours ago) and read 16505 times:

Quoting AeroWesty (Reply 102):
Quoting B747forever (Reply 101):People Daily Each Way
Check reply #1:

How To Find Pdew And Yeilds On Routes? (by jonathanxxxx Jul 24 2011 in Civil Aviation)


Yeah, I know, but why would you divide the 26 PDEW? It is already stated in people each way.



Work Hard, Fly Right
User currently offlinecaliatenza From United States of America, joined Dec 2006, 1566 posts, RR: 0
Reply 105, posted (1 year 5 months 3 weeks 1 day 8 hours ago) and read 16520 times:

Will AA start flying to India again? I remember they canceled DEL.

User currently offlineAeroWesty From United States of America, joined Oct 2004, 20394 posts, RR: 62
Reply 106, posted (1 year 5 months 3 weeks 1 day 8 hours ago) and read 16523 times:

Quoting B747forever (Reply 104):
Yeah, I know, but why would you divide the 26 PDEW? It is already stated in people each way.

People misquote the numbers without dividing them in half all of the time. The numbers were stated without provenance.



International Homo of Mystery
User currently offlineLAXdude1023 From India, joined Sep 2006, 7512 posts, RR: 24
Reply 107, posted (1 year 5 months 3 weeks 1 day 8 hours ago) and read 16525 times:

Quoting AeroWesty (Reply 100):

I already did it for you. 26 is the number per direction.

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 99):

No doubt, MCO and MIA bleed to each other. I've always said that a MIA-NRT flight needs to be marketed as a Florida-Asia connection as opposed to an Asia-Latin America connection.



Stewed...Lewd...Crude...Irreverent...Belligerent
User currently offlinecrAAzy From United States of America, joined Jan 2008, 772 posts, RR: 0
Reply 108, posted (1 year 5 months 3 weeks 1 day 8 hours ago) and read 16474 times:
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Does anyone think AA could make DFW-MNL work?

User currently offlineadamh8297 From United States of America, joined Dec 2012, 843 posts, RR: 0
Reply 109, posted (1 year 5 months 3 weeks 1 day 7 hours ago) and read 16300 times:

Quoting LHCVG (Reply 97):
Depends on the yield. That's enough to fill a single daily widebody, but just barely, so yields would have to be pretty good. Edit: As noted below, PDEW to ASIA not to any specific destination. That would be decent for NRT, but not spread across a few places.

A lot of folks may not fly that non-stop flight

1) You have to factor in those price sensitive customers who may do bizarre things like fly PHX-ATL-NRT to save a few bucks in the face of adding a few hours to their travel time.

2) Convenient one-stop competition is pretty tough too with multiple flights to LAX and SFO everyday. Not to split hairs but PHX-SFO-ICN is shorter than PHX-NRT-ICN though connecting on the way home in SFO will be a pain as in all connections from international to domestic in the USA.

3) Frequent-Flier loyalty is another factor too. The Skymiles addict may choose PHX-SEA-NRT on AS/DL to get his fix.

4) IMHO - JL's NRT hub isn't the greatest for connecting options as well.


User currently offlineLAXdude1023 From India, joined Sep 2006, 7512 posts, RR: 24
Reply 110, posted (1 year 5 months 3 weeks 1 day 6 hours ago) and read 16262 times:

Quoting crAAzy (Reply 108):

Not in a million years. A route with 25 PDEW and trash yields?



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User currently offlinePHX787 From Japan, joined Mar 2012, 7233 posts, RR: 17
Reply 111, posted (1 year 5 months 3 weeks 1 day 5 hours ago) and read 16085 times:

Quoting B747forever (Reply 98):
26 PDEW is more like it. That doesnt even fill a turboprop!

That's direct to NRT as a destination; the 212 or so I was quoting would be continuing on from NRT to other asian destinations, as NRT is an Asian gateway.

And I think this discussion thread degenerated into a debate about Asian service to PHX (courtesy of me) so as you all know my stance I'm just going to leave it at that.

And going to what LHCVG said I think maybe my credibility was shot when I posted a thread about a crazy rumor a pilot told me, just know that I didn't believe the rumor and the whole purpose for me posting that thread was simply to point out how nuts the rumor was.

Do I honestly need to "name" contacts because I feel that would be a breach of their own personal privacy. I don't want all of you going out and sending emails to my friends asking about me, because one- in Japan, that's quite rude and 2- about half of them don't speak english and 3- it's just not necessary, alright?



One of the FB admins for PHX Spotters. "Zach the Expat!"
User currently offlinewillzzz88 From United States of America, joined May 2011, 150 posts, RR: 0
Reply 112, posted (1 year 5 months 3 weeks 1 day 4 hours ago) and read 15921 times:

Regarding MNL btw, I'm surprised AA isn't codesharing on JL's NRT-MNL flight? When you search for MNL on AA.com you need to select "AA, American Eagle, AmericanConnection® and oneworld" instead of just "AA, American Eagle and AmericanConnection®". In my opinion AA should be code-sharing to ALL of JL'es Asia destinations and that includes NRT-DEL.

User currently offlineAAIL86 From Finland, joined Feb 2011, 408 posts, RR: 3
Reply 113, posted (1 year 5 months 3 weeks 1 day 4 hours ago) and read 15902 times:

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 111):
And I think this discussion thread degenerated into a debate about Asian service to PHX (courtesy of me) so as you all know my stance I'm just going to leave it at that.

Well I think probably all of us a-nuters have our pet routes that we would love to see operated. When I lived in Dallas my pet route was DFW-HEL. But my desire to see that operated doesn't mean I'd sit here say "gosh its going to happen".

PHX-NRT would be a highly marginal route at best.

Quoting caliatenza (Reply 105):

Will AA start flying to India again? I remember they canceled DEL.

Highly doubtful. US-India is a huge market for sure... but I think AA will focus on growing China/Hong Kong/SE Asia instead. The yields in the front cabin just aren't high enough to India to bother with.

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 92):
Im almost thinking that it would be better for AA to enter Africa from NYC as opposed to the others. Even with the competition, the market is just so much larger.

Correct as usual sir. We've heard a lot of talk about MIA-JNB but I'm not sure even with the size of AA's ops there that they would have enough feed to fill a 77W. Maybe if the reconfigured J/MCE/Y 772 could make it....
P.S. DFW-Africa is a fools errand.



Next
User currently offlineB747forever From Sweden, joined May 2007, 17056 posts, RR: 10
Reply 114, posted (1 year 5 months 3 weeks 1 day 4 hours ago) and read 15783 times:

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 111):
That's direct to NRT as a destination; the 212 or so I was quoting would be continuing on from NRT to other asian destinations, as NRT is an Asian gateway.

But that is my point. You cannot quote the PDEW for all of PHX-Asia and use it as case for a PHX-NRT flight. There is no way that all of those PAX would choose to fly via NRT.



Work Hard, Fly Right
User currently offlineLAXdude1023 From India, joined Sep 2006, 7512 posts, RR: 24
Reply 115, posted (1 year 5 months 3 weeks 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 15642 times:

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 96):
That's enough for a daily low-densidty JL or NH int'l 787, is it not?

My thoughts on a PHX-NRT flight boil down to this: Can you fill a plane from PHX-NRT with hubs on both sides? Absolutely. Can you make a profit on a PHX-NRT given the O&D yields between PHX and Asia? I dont think so.

I would love to be proven wrong on that last part, I really would. For the record, I like Phoenix. I spent a very large portion of my life living in Los Angeles and LA county. I was living there when I joined a.net (hence the name LAXdude1023). I used to visit Phoenix 3 or 4 times a year to visit friends and I have never had a negative experience there.

All of that said, I feel bad for Phoenix with regard to this merger. Its going to lose on every level. The jobs are going to be sent to Texas by the hundreds and its going to lose the HQ. I hate to tell you, but PHX is going to smaller after the merger than it is now. Now then, do I think PHX is going to be downsized to a hub or focus city? Absolutely not. I also think the comparisons to STL, PIT, and even CVG are unfounded. PHX is a much larger market (albeit lower yielding) than any of those. I see PHX being about 30% smaller, but retaining every city on the East and West Coast. Where I think PHX loses out are cities in the Midwest and smaller regional flights. Think SLC not STL for looking at PHX's future. I also think WN will step in and fill some of the void.

I know you love your city man. I feel for you guys, I really do. If the merger meant DFW losing what PHX will lose, I feel the exact same way.



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User currently offlinecrAAzy From United States of America, joined Jan 2008, 772 posts, RR: 0
Reply 116, posted (1 year 5 months 3 weeks 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 15597 times:
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Re: DFW-MNL

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 110):

Not in a million years. A route with 25 PDEW and trash yields?

I was just wondering if a higher density 772 with J,W,Y might work at AA's largest hub considering possible military traffic, the number of connections offered out of DFW, and one stop connections to many of the Caribbean cruise destinations. Definitely a niche market though.


User currently offlinemah4546 From Sweden, joined Jan 2001, 32621 posts, RR: 72
Reply 117, posted (1 year 5 months 3 weeks 1 day ago) and read 15536 times:

Quoting AAIL86 (Reply 113):
Highly doubtful. US-India is a huge market for sure... but I think AA will focus on growing China/Hong Kong/SE Asia instead. The yields in the front cabin just aren't high enough to India to bother with.

AA will absolutely return to India. It's a given, and I bet it happens in the 2015-16 timeframe. Until Air India and its governmemt backing came, ORDDEL worked for AA quite well.

Quoting AAIL86 (Reply 113):
Correct as usual sir. We've heard a lot of talk about MIA-JNB but I'm not sure even with the size of AA's ops there that they would have enough feed to fill a 77W. Maybe if the reconfigured J/MCE/Y 772 could make it....

Filling a flight to South Africa from the U.S. is so incredibly easy thanks to limited service and robust demand, it could probably work from Charlotte. MIAJNB would be a gold mine.

PDEW numbers don't accurately reflect demand in the ZA-U.S. market, which has a lot of double ticketing via Europe and Brazil, because it often is cheaper than going direct.



a.
User currently offline9w748capt From United States of America, joined Feb 2008, 562 posts, RR: 1
Reply 118, posted (1 year 5 months 3 weeks 23 hours ago) and read 15420 times:

Quoting IrishAyes (Reply 103):
I'm visiting DFW this weekend at home, and I've been getting questions about the potential of re-launching India flights (not on this thread, but separately from friends and family) since the ORD-DEL flights were so popular. I personally don't see it happening anytime soon, knowing that AI is literally offering dirt cheap r/t premium fares and flooding the US-India market with bottom barrel seats and AA's cost structure, even post-exit, would struggle to compete against AI profitably. However, one might think that with a combined AA-US in the NorthEast, the potential for a nonstop from PHL or JFK could theoretically work this time around...thoughts?

No you have it all wrong - AA withdrew from ORD-DEL because their product was just so much more inferior to AI's remember? How could you forget - haha! Hope you're having fun in DFW - let me know if you ever find yourself in OKC!

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 117):

AA will absolutely return to India. It's a given, and I bet it happens in the 2015-16 timeframe. Until Air India and its governmemt backing came, ORDDEL worked for AA quite well.

That's interesting to see you so confident about that. Are you sure? I thought with QR entering oneworld and AA placing their code on basically every subcontinental flight ex-DOH that there would be little to no incentive for AA to fly their own metal to India. What would be cool is if they sent a 77W to DOH from say DFW, for example. But I would be pleasantly shocked indeed if AA flies their own metal to India again.


User currently onlineLHCVG From United States of America, joined May 2009, 1546 posts, RR: 1
Reply 119, posted (1 year 5 months 3 weeks 19 hours ago) and read 15083 times:

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 111):
Do I honestly need to "name" contacts because I feel that would be a breach of their own personal privacy. I don't want all of you going out and sending emails to my friends asking about me, because one- in Japan, that's quite rude and 2- about half of them don't speak english and 3- it's just not necessary, alright?

Of course you don't have to name all contacts used to source a story--and I'll be the first one to defend the right of a journalist to use unnamed sources when deemed necessary to get a major scoop on a story that wouldn't be doable otherwise. But blatant speculation using friends of yours doesn't fit that. No one is asking you to name your friends so we can quiz them; the issue is that you continue to rely on friends, parents, "contacts", etc. -- all of whom are of dubious merit because they lack the necessary substantive, material knowledge to contribute verifiable information to the debate at hand. Whether it's a CVG or PHX discussion, you always seem to have "sources" or "contacts", but as I said earlier, none of those are ever in any position to have substantive on the issue. My point about names was just that you aren't providing us anything that is really earth-shattering, and so sensitive that it might have be reported on deep background. Thus, if you really have info to sway this, you'd have some kind of citations or identifiable names to attribute your assertions to. The key here is that these friends/contacts of yours are not people "in the know", otherwise you'd have provided information to that effect to bolster their claims that you relay on here.

Like I said before, if your friends/contacts are right, that's great -- good for them, and I'm happy for them. But you have a history of producing rumors and speculation that is heavily dosed with blatant homerism bias and personal opinion, while being rather light on the hard facts that would be useful to us here.


User currently offlineFreshSide3 From United States of America, joined Nov 2012, 213 posts, RR: 0
Reply 120, posted (1 year 5 months 3 weeks 17 hours ago) and read 15008 times:

Quoting EricR (Reply 77):
Surprised no one has brought up the return of AA to DME via either ORD, JFK, MIA.

I'm also surprised that nobody is flying to St. Petersburg, either, not even Aeroflot.

Quoting shamrock604 (Reply 49):
I dont see why CLT-DUB is such an obvious one to scrap. Essentially, the Dublin route was a way to get extra utilisation out of a domestic 757 that will produce decent yields in peak season, and can use domestic gates at CLT due to CBP in Dublin. It was launched probably because it was a quick, easy win using existing resources.

Keep in mind that SFO, who should have a seasonal/non-daily DUB flight, doesn't. And although there are connections via LHR, many SF Irish refuse to do so, for political reasons. Plus there is a big demand for Ireland from SAV, and this offers an alternate connection besides ATL........so really, SFO/SAV figure into the success of CLT-DUB more than most people would suspect initially.

Quoting southwest737500 (Reply 93):
I think it would be cool if the new AA and AS worked together on CLT-SEA. The reason I say this is AS is a great airline and they bring so many connecting opportunities. For the summer have 2 or 3 AA flights and 1 AS (summer) 2 AA and 1 AS (winter)

I always was under the impression that AA always had its eye on acquiring AS, but they wanted to stay indpendent. The AA/AS code-shares work well here in SEA.


User currently offlineAAIL86 From Finland, joined Feb 2011, 408 posts, RR: 3
Reply 121, posted (1 year 5 months 3 weeks 11 hours ago) and read 14598 times:

Quoting crAAzy (Reply 116):
number of connections offered out of DFW, and one stop connections to many of the Caribbean cruise destinations. Definitely a niche market though.

They could no doubt fill the plane with $1200 round trips. But at that level of return they would do just as well to have a big bonfire of $100s on the ramp at DFW ... at least it would save them the work of operating the flight.

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 117):
AA will absolutely return to India. It's a given, and I bet it happens in the 2015-16 timeframe. Until Air India and its governmemt backing came, ORDDEL worked for AA quite well.

Maybe, but a lot can happen between now and 2015-2016. Unless the market outlook worldwide gets significantly better, my gut feeling is that they won't.

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 117):
Filling a flight to South Africa from the U.S. is so incredibly easy thanks to limited service and robust demand, it could probably work from Charlotte. MIAJNB would be a gold mine.

PDEW numbers don't accurately reflect demand in the ZA-U.S. market, which has a lot of double ticketing via Europe and Brazil, because it often is cheaper than going direct.

Agreed on the US-ZA market being hard to define because of double ticketing. Even so, given the fares I regularly see on ATL-JNB I doubt DL is breaking the bank on that route, and DL's connectivity at ATL is probably double what AA now has at MIA. Let me ask you this (and I'll quallfy it by saying that I'd love to see AA give MIA-Africa a go) - if MIA-JNB would really be a "gold mine" then why isn't AA (or someone else) operating it already?

For me, the BK process and the (potential) merger with US gives AA a great chance to go back and compete aggressively in the New York market, and as LaxDude1023 pointed out, probably their best chance for success on US-Africa.



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User currently offlinesonomaflyer From United States of America, joined Apr 2010, 1709 posts, RR: 0
Reply 122, posted (1 year 5 months 3 weeks 11 hours ago) and read 14563 times:
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AA could very well return to India flying when they take delivery of 787s. It is challenging to make money given the distances involved (fuel costs) plus the limited premium travel demand but it could work from ORD or JFK.

I see no logic on a DFW-MNL route. There is no military traffic to speak of these days (Subic Bay/Clark Field) are shut down and what little O/D traffic there is would be at the back of the plane. If AA ever starts this route (which I think unlikely), it would be out of LAX with a 787.

AA has a great opportunity to leverage their MIA hub for growth to Africa and other points in the Southern Hemisphere. MIA's geographical location, large population and a combined US/AA network should make this a gold mine.


User currently offlinemah4546 From Sweden, joined Jan 2001, 32621 posts, RR: 72
Reply 123, posted (1 year 5 months 3 weeks 10 hours ago) and read 14454 times:

Quoting AAIL86 (Reply 121):
if MIA-JNB would really be a "gold mine" then why isn't SA)">AA (or someone else) operating it already?

SA would love to operate via FLL/MIA, like it has in the past. Instead of DKR, but new rules instituted after 9/11 put an end to that. And let's be realistic here: it's a Star carrier and needs to fly to Star hubs.

As for SA)">AA flying to ZA via JFK, no, I don't think that's a good idea at all, because the feed from JFK is nowhere near ample enough, and the route needs feed.

And if SA)">AA had the aircraft to fly MIAJNB non-stop, I'm sure it would have considered it. It doesn't, until now with the 77W and 787.



a.
User currently offlinenutsaboutplanes From United States of America, joined Jul 2010, 496 posts, RR: 8
Reply 124, posted (1 year 5 months 3 weeks 10 hours ago) and read 14379 times:

Quoting crAAzy (Reply 37):
I'm not saying CLT is going to shrink dramatically but I personally see this merger as a big win for MIA ... if AA doesn't run out of room.



I see MIA as static, I don't think much will change post merger so I don't see it as a "big win" at all for MIA.



American Airlines, US Airways, Alaska Airlines, Northwest Airlines, America West Airlines, USAFR
User currently offlinemesaflyguy From United States of America, joined Dec 2012, 2947 posts, RR: 4
Reply 125, posted (1 year 5 months 3 weeks 10 hours ago) and read 14336 times:
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If this merger does go through, what does it spell for the ISP flights? They are consistently full, with US adding a third daily frequency on ISP-DCA in October. Will we see a reduction in service or any changes in routes?

Maybe MQ would give ISP-ORD another try?



\________(---)________/ :) World's most beautiful aircraft: 757-200, MD-88/90, E-190, A321
User currently offlineIrishAyes From United States of America, joined Jan 2008, 2167 posts, RR: 15
Reply 126, posted (1 year 5 months 3 weeks 9 hours ago) and read 14315 times:

Quoting 9w748capt (Reply 118):
No you have it all wrong - AA withdrew from ORD-DEL because their product was just so much more inferior to AI's remember? How could you forget - haha! Hope you're having fun in DFW - let me know if you ever find yourself in OKC!

Aaw, how could I forget??! Stupid me. Where is that inane bully right now?

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 117):
AA will absolutely return to India. It's a given, and I bet it happens in the 2015-16 timeframe. Until Air India and its governmemt backing came, ORDDEL worked for AA quite well.

Mark, I often agree with your posts and rational, but I'm not sure I am on the same page with you on this one. I don't think that ORDDEL was a profitable, good performer prior to the AI nonstop. It was a survivor at best.

Quoting 9w748capt (Reply 118):
That's interesting to see you so confident about that. Are you sure? I thought with QR entering oneworld and AA placing their code on basically every subcontinental flight ex-DOH that there would be little to no incentive for AA to fly their own metal to India. What would be cool is if they sent a 77W to DOH from say DFW, for example. But I would be pleasantly shocked indeed if AA flies their own metal to India again.

   which makes me hesitant to believe AA will put India high on the priority list again. Notice how DL has not re-ventured into their nonstop US-India flights since they were axed in 2008/2009.

Quoting AAIL86 (Reply 121):
They could no doubt fill the plane with $1200 round trips. But at that level of return they would do just as well to have a big bonfire of $100s on the ramp at DFW ... at least it would save them the work of operating the flight.
Quoting sonomaflyer (Reply 122):
I see no logic on a DFW-MNL route. There is no military traffic to speak of these days (Subic Bay/Clark Field) are shut down and what little O/D traffic there is would be at the back of the plane. If AA ever starts this route (which I think unlikely), it would be out of LAX with a 787.

MNL is an ultra, ultra low-yielding market and geographically/practically speaking, is best routed via NRT for connections. Philippines is such a weird market. PAL is the only airline that flies nonstop US/Canada-MNL and those routes appear to drive the majority of their long-haul profits.



next flights: msp-phx-slc, msp-mdw, ord-sju, sju-dfw-ord, msp-dfw, dfw-phl, phl-msp, jfk-icn, icn-hkg-bkk-cdg
User currently offlinecommavia From United States of America, joined Apr 2005, 11463 posts, RR: 61
Reply 127, posted (1 year 5 months 3 weeks 9 hours ago) and read 14302 times:

Quoting nutsaboutplanes (Reply 124):
I see MIA as static

I don't. AA has been growing consistently for years, and I don't see that slowing down anytime soon. I think AA's MIA hub has more "runway" left to go on growth - I see further expansion, both domestically and internationally, with or without a merger.

Quoting nutsaboutplanes (Reply 124):
I don't think much will change post merger so I don't see it as a "big win" at all for MIA.

I agree this merger will have little direct impact on MIA, but again, I see that as meaning MIA continues to grow unabated as it has been for AA for pretty much the last decade.


User currently offlinedtwlax From United States of America, joined Aug 2009, 789 posts, RR: 0
Reply 128, posted (1 year 5 months 3 weeks 9 hours ago) and read 14276 times:

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 86):
It's growing but slowly. The demand itself is growing. I ran into a contact of mine who actually asked me to sign something to give to the Japanese consulate in Los Angeles to see if they can persuade ANA/JAL to start a flight here.

Airlines will not start routes based on written petitions. Even if the entire population of PHX signed the petition, ANA/JL will not start PHX service because they know that route is not viable for them. What places can you connect to at PHX that you cannot from the ANA/JL destinations on the west coast?

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 89):
Miami and Philadelphia will have service to two or three cities in Asia before Phoenix has service to one. Miami has the benefit of being a high fare and premium market to southern Asia.

But will the combined airline have the right aircraft to operate the route profitably?

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 89):
Also, if anybody would like to sign my petition for non-stop St. Louis-Shangahi service , contact me. The fact that I'm asking people by default means there is demand.

That is funny! How about signing a petition to start nonstop Asia service from Boise?   

Quoting IrishAyes (Reply 103):
ST has KQ and Star has ET.

Star also has SA

Quoting caliatenza (Reply 105):
Will AA start flying to India again? I remember they canceled DEL.

I do not think so, especially with AI jumping on the route now.

Quoting adamh8297 (Reply 109):
3) Frequent-Flier loyalty is another factor too. The Skymiles addict may choose PHX-SEA-NRT on AS/DL to get his fix.

Or PHX-LAX-NRT


User currently offlineVctony From United States of America, joined Aug 1999, 455 posts, RR: 0
Reply 129, posted (1 year 5 months 3 weeks 8 hours ago) and read 14180 times:

PHX isn't going to get any new routes folks.

By 2017 I predict the following routes from PHX.

PHX - CLT, DCA, DFW, JFK, LAX, MIA, ORD, and PHL.

My wild card is on PHX- BOS, LAS, and SFO.

But in the words of Porky Pig. As far as PHX is concerned, "That's all folks." for PHX.

[Edited 2013-02-10 12:19:10]

[Edited 2013-02-10 12:19:48]

User currently offlinePHX787 From Japan, joined Mar 2012, 7233 posts, RR: 17
Reply 130, posted (1 year 5 months 3 weeks 8 hours ago) and read 14152 times:

Quoting Vctony (Reply 129):
By 2017 I predict the following routes from PHX.

Why?

Again I question each and every one of you who doubt PHX's future existence.

Quoting Vctony (Reply 129):

PHX - CLT, DCA, DFW, JFK, LAX, MIA, ORD, and PHL.

My wild card is on PHX - BOS, LAX, and SFO.

You contradicted yourself when you added LAX to your list and said it was a wild card. In reality none of those routes are going anywhere.



One of the FB admins for PHX Spotters. "Zach the Expat!"
User currently offlineVctony From United States of America, joined Aug 1999, 455 posts, RR: 0
Reply 131, posted (1 year 5 months 3 weeks 8 hours ago) and read 14134 times:

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 130):
Quoting Vctony (Reply 129):
By 2017 I predict the following routes from PHX.

Why?

Again I question each and every one of you who doubt PHX's future existence.

Quoting Vctony (Reply 129):

PHX - CLT, DCA, DFW, JFK, LAX, MIA, ORD, and PHL.

My wild card is on PHX - BOS, LAX, and SFO.

You contradicted yourself when you added LAX to your list and said it was a wild card. In reality none of those routes are going anywhere.

First, I corrected my mistake with LAX twice. I meant LAS and not LAX.

PHX is going to be cut because the market just will not work for a "major" air carrier. WN flies just about everywhere from PHX and has a strong hold on the O/D market. With re-purposing some of the FL assets, I can see WN growing slightly at PHX.

We also must remember is that PHX has ALREADY been cut from what it once was when it was the main hub of HP. The reason why PHX was cut at that time is that some of the routes made more sense out of DCA, CLT, and PHL (and with the HP aircraft) they were able to move those assets (and some of the LAS assets) out East. PHX is surviving today because the next hub to the East of it in the US network is CLT which is clear across the country. DFW and ORD negate almost all of the need for PHX in the network. Not to mention DFW and ORD are located in larger metropolitan areas with scores of Fortune 500 HQs. With the US headquarters leaving town, PHX will be down to a paltry 5 Fortune 500 company headquarters.

PHX is a low yielding hub that benefits from US's current cost structure. When it moves to AA's cost structure, it's going to start bleeding money. It's essentially the west coast version of PIT and US bled money there for years before it decided to cut its losses.


User currently offlineadamh8297 From United States of America, joined Dec 2012, 843 posts, RR: 0
Reply 132, posted (1 year 5 months 3 weeks 5 hours ago) and read 13859 times:

Quoting Vctony (Reply 129):

PHX isn't going to get any new routes folks.

By 2017 I predict the following routes from PHX.

PHX - CLT, DCA, DFW, JFK, LAX, MIA, ORD, and PHL.

My wild card is on PHX- BOS, LAS, and SFO.

But in the words of Porky Pig. As far as PHX is concerned, "That's all folks." for PHX.

Could the PHX-Canada routes remain? Though you do have competition with WS and I'm sure most of the traffic is leisure, the largest O&D market from PHX is YYC.

They may keep 1-2 weekly PHX-SJD/PVR/CUN/ZIH/MZT as well for aircraft utilization.

Looking at PHX numbers, what surprises me the most is the low O&D for MEX (75 PDEW) and GDL (58 PDEW). I think those routes are doomed to go through DFW.

Also, if WN decides to re-enter the market BOS-PHX is a goner.


User currently offlinePHX787 From Japan, joined Mar 2012, 7233 posts, RR: 17
Reply 133, posted (1 year 5 months 3 weeks 5 hours ago) and read 13844 times:

Quoting adamh8297 (Reply 132):
Could the PHX-Canada routes remain? Though you do have competition with WS and I'm sure most of the traffic is leisure, the largest O&D market from PHX is YYC.

WS and AC are seasonal and leisure, except I think some AC routes to YYZ carry on to Europe sometimes. Same with Vancouver to Asia (someone I knew flew PHX to Vancouver and on to PEK or something)

For US I think those are either connecting or business-related O and D.



One of the FB admins for PHX Spotters. "Zach the Expat!"
User currently offlineLAXdude1023 From India, joined Sep 2006, 7512 posts, RR: 24
Reply 134, posted (1 year 5 months 3 weeks 5 hours ago) and read 13824 times:

Quoting adamh8297 (Reply 132):
Looking at PHX numbers, what surprises me the most is the low O&D for MEX (75 PDEW) and GDL (58 PDEW). I think those routes are doomed to go through DFW.

Well to be fair, DFW-GDL and PHX-GDL are about the same size. DFW-MEX is, however, is over 3x larger than PHX-MEX.

The markets in Mexico (and all of Central America) where PHX is larger than or equal to DFW:

GDL
HMO
PVR
MZT

and thats it.

All that said, I think PHX keeps GDL/MEX/HMO/SJD/MZT/CUN/ZIH.

I also think PHX keeps BOS no matter if WN enters.



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