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Impact Of AA/US On UA  
User currently offlineORD Boy 2 From United States of America, joined Aug 2000, 278 posts, RR: 1
Posted (1 year 2 months 1 day 22 hours ago) and read 8440 times:

While we now know that the new AA will be in oneworld, how does this impact UA? The one area where UA is going to have issues is Florida/interior south?

Would UA possibly organically build a hub in the south between IAD and IAH? And if so, where? Or do they add frequencies to both of those hubs and add new destinations?

The most valuable feed that US had for UA was the interior South feed in my view..

Thoughts?

45 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently onlinepoint2point From United States of America, joined Mar 2010, 2632 posts, RR: 1
Reply 1, posted (1 year 2 months 1 day 22 hours ago) and read 8372 times:

Well, certainly DEN-CLT, where UA/US do a code share, will no longer be workable. With anywhere from 4-6 daily US only nonstop flights here and all with mostly 320s and some 321s, a lot of traffic on this route and no competition at all for US. And works out for both Denver pax to connect at CLT, and Charlotte pax to connect in DEN, with both US and UA in *A.

Now...... will UA, or WN, or both jump into this city-pair with nonstop service? Or maybe even F9 or someone else if UA or WN (unlikely though with both) don't take advantage here?

 


User currently onlinekngkyle From United States of America, joined Dec 2006, 368 posts, RR: 1
Reply 2, posted (1 year 2 months 1 day 22 hours ago) and read 8279 times:

I think ORD is where it will become interesting. The two new behemoths sharing a full size hub. Will American try to be more competitive at ORD? Or continue giving up market share to UA in favor of fortress hubs? What even is the breakdown of destinations and capacity between UA and AA at ORD now? How has UA changed at ORD since the merger?

I personally hope to see both UA and AA fight for ORD dominance, if for no other reason than it would be fun to watch.


User currently offlinecommavia From United States of America, joined Apr 2005, 11116 posts, RR: 62
Reply 3, posted (1 year 2 months 1 day 22 hours ago) and read 8240 times:

Quoting kngkyle (Reply 3):
The two new behemoths sharing a full size hub.

Well, yes, although that's been the case continuously for 30 years. Two huge airlines with two huge hubs at the same airport is nothing new at O'Hare, and this merger certainly doesn't change that.

Quoting kngkyle (Reply 3):
Will American try to be more competitive at ORD?

Yes, but they would have anyway. The main thing holding AA back from being competitive at ORD was its union contracts, which prevented AA from doing what was necessary to be competitive. Now that this problem has been addressed, AA is free to be far more competitive - in ORD, and in general.

Quoting kngkyle (Reply 3):
Or continue giving up market share to UA in favor of fortress hubs?

Actually, while I don't have the precise numbers in front of me (but being as this is A.net, I'm sure someone will), I suspect that the last decade has been far less a case of AA "giving up market share to UA" at ORD than of both carriers giving up market share to WN across town at MDW.

AA's ORD hub - overall - is certainly smaller than it was pre-9/11. But then again, so is UA's.

Quoting kngkyle (Reply 3):
What even is the breakdown of destinations and capacity between UA and AA at ORD now?

Again, not sure - but both hubs are huge.


User currently offlineTWA772LR From United States of America, joined Nov 2011, 1137 posts, RR: 1
Reply 4, posted (1 year 2 months 1 day 18 hours ago) and read 7931 times:

Quoting ORD Boy 2 (Thread starter):
Would UA possibly organically build a hub in the south between IAD and IAH? And if so, where?

UA has the south covered well enough with IAD to the north and IAH to the west. But I guess they can technically do anything.

Before I get flamed, I know this is a pipedream. I would love to see UA build a hub at MEM that could serve as a leach to DFW and also serve the south.   



Я говорю по-русский. :)
User currently onlineSTT757 From United States of America, joined Mar 2000, 16689 posts, RR: 51
Reply 5, posted (1 year 2 months 1 day 11 hours ago) and read 7625 times:

As a Mileage plus member I will miss the PHL option, I live closer to EWR but PHL (especially on US) is almost always cheaper. We would fly US from PHL and earn UA miles, I know many folks in New Jersey who do the same. As for the loss of a Southeast hub I think UA should just ramp up flights into the Southeast from existing hubs. IAD for example is not capacity constrained, they can ramp up more regional flights from IAD.


Eastern Air lines flt # 701, EWR-MCO Boeing 757
User currently offlineAllegiantFlyer From United States of America, joined Mar 2012, 162 posts, RR: 0
Reply 6, posted (1 year 2 months 1 day 11 hours ago) and read 7538 times:

Im guessing UA will be jealous that they cant say their the worlds largest airline anymore :P

User currently offlinejfk777 From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 8089 posts, RR: 7
Reply 7, posted (1 year 2 months 1 day 11 hours ago) and read 7518 times:
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The two cities where AA and UA will do battle are Chicago and LAX. Where is AA going to expand in Los Angeles seems like the $64,000 question. AA's terminal 4 is overcapacity. TWA's former Terminal 3 could be a solution, but does AA retain any lease there ?

User currently offlineAADC10 From United States of America, joined Nov 2004, 2015 posts, RR: 0
Reply 8, posted (1 year 2 months 1 day 11 hours ago) and read 7427 times:

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 8):
Where is AA going to expand in Los Angeles seems like the $64,000 question. AA's terminal 4 is overcapacity.

The even larger problem at LAX is that AA/US cannot even consolidate existing capacity. US made an agreement to move out of T-1 but AA's T-4 does not even have space for the couple of gates US is currently using. I do not think that the merger is going to have much of an impact on UA and LAX and probably even less at ORD.

UA will probably shuffle around some flights to US hubs. Some may be dropped since it will no longer be to a codeshare hub, a few routes might be increased to compensate for the loss of the codeshares on O&D passengers. My guess is that some UA hub to US hub flights will be downguaged to UAX to keep the frequencies up.


User currently offlinecageyjames From United States of America, joined Nov 2006, 278 posts, RR: 0
Reply 9, posted (1 year 2 months 1 day 11 hours ago) and read 7405 times:

Quoting AllegiantFlyer (Reply 7):

Im guessing UA will be jealous that they cant say their the worlds largest airline anymore :P

Well I believe UA is still the largest airline when you count the regional flights. For marketing purposes, that's good enough to keep claiming it.


User currently offlinejayunited From United States of America, joined Jan 2013, 779 posts, RR: 1
Reply 10, posted (1 year 2 months 1 day 10 hours ago) and read 7357 times:

Quoting kngkyle (Reply 3):
I think ORD is where it will become interesting.

I don't see why ORD would come into play here AA already competes vigorously against UA on most routes I suspect the new AA will beef up service to CLT, PHL, PHX and perhaps LAS from ORD but that is about it. US as it stands right now only has 3 permanent gates at ORD and UA allows them to some time use and overnight aircraft at 2 other gates that UA owns. So the impact of this merger on ORD would be minimal.

Since UA and US started this codeshare agreement and especially after the CO/UA merger UA quickly reduced the number of non stops between ORD and LAS and PHX (IAM contract language was part of the reason why there where reductions.The old contract states if UA operates more than 50 mainline flights for more than 60 days into these stations they would become full IAM stations covered by the full IAM contract). UA instead chose to funnel those passengers onto US flights which is evident by upcoming spring/summer schedule which would see UA operate only 3 non stops to LAS and 2 non stops to PHX a day on UA metal. I suspect now UA will have to probably operate at least 5-6 non stops daily to LAS and probably 4 non stops to PHX a day. With US now leaving *A probably sometime in the spring or summer if this new contract that UA has with the IAM removes those constraints off LAS and PHX and if other economic factors are right I think UA will increase the number of non stops between ORD and those 2 stations. However I do recognize that the new AA would probably have at least 8-10 nonstops a day to LAS and maybe 10-13 non stops to PHX but other than that I don't see much of a shift coming in the ORD market because UA does not rely on US for flights to PHL or DCA from ORD UA covers those flights with UA metal and as far as CLT I think UA would leave the number of non stops where they are right now and just let the new AA have ORD-CLT market.


User currently offlineFriendlySkies From United States of America, joined Aug 2004, 4091 posts, RR: 5
Reply 11, posted (1 year 2 months 1 day 10 hours ago) and read 7323 times:

Quoting AllegiantFlyer (Reply 7):

Im guessing UA will be jealous that they cant say their the worlds largest airline anymore :P

I don't believe UA has ever directly marketed itself as the world's largest airline since the merger...that is the media's doing. They have been calling themselves the world's 'leading' airline, which is plenty debatable in itself, but they said from the start that being the biggest was never important.


User currently offlineklwright69 From Saudi Arabia, joined Jan 2000, 1977 posts, RR: 3
Reply 12, posted (1 year 2 months 1 day 10 hours ago) and read 7277 times:
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UA could revive CO's old GSO hub?

User currently offlinedelta2ual From United States of America, joined Dec 2007, 606 posts, RR: 1
Reply 13, posted (1 year 2 months 1 day 10 hours ago) and read 7256 times:

Quoting commavia (Reply 1):
Suggestion to Moderators: there should be a consolidated thread for impact on Competitors in general ...

Well I know that both CEO's at DL & UA have go on record to say they would like to see more consolidation. I'm sure that all 3 giants can co-exist just fine. They still have their own strengths and weaknesses. No one airline, no matter how large, can be everything to everyone.



From the world's largest airline-to the world's largest airline. Delta2ual
User currently offlinejayunited From United States of America, joined Jan 2013, 779 posts, RR: 1
Reply 14, posted (1 year 2 months 1 day 10 hours ago) and read 7171 times:

Quoting delta2ual (Reply 14):
Well I know that both CEO's at DL & UA have go on record to say they would like to see more consolidation. I'm sure that all 3 giants can co-exist just fine. They still have their own strengths and weaknesses. No one airline, no matter how large, can be everything to everyone

I think you are correct the airline industry and Wall Street wanted to see this merger go thru. Since these mergers began you can see the stabilization that has come into the U.S. airline industry. Airlines like Delta Southwest and United have been removing excess capacity from their respective markets for years and now with the AA/US merger most excess capacity will be removed from their markets as well. Dispite the high fuel prices the U.S. airline industry was profitable overall last year and a few years ago it would have never been possible because there were too many airlines with to many planes in the sky and far to few passenger on them to make a profit. So all four of these giant airlines will be able to co-exist with each other and once all the mergers are done I really do think the U.S. industry will finally see some stability and profitability year after year.


User currently offlineMountainFlyer From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 473 posts, RR: 0
Reply 15, posted (1 year 2 months 1 day 10 hours ago) and read 7140 times:

With AA's codeshare with AS and now the merger with US, I wonder if AA/US and DL could challenge UA's current presence in SEA.


SA-227; B1900; Q200; Q400; CRJ-2,7,9; 717; 727-2; 737-3,4,5,7,8,9; 747-2; 757-2,3; 767-3,4; MD-90; A319, 320; DC-9; DC-1
User currently offlinedeltairlines From United States of America, joined May 1999, 8867 posts, RR: 12
Reply 16, posted (1 year 2 months 1 day 10 hours ago) and read 7095 times:

Quoting MountainFlyer (Reply 16):
I wonder if AA/US and DL could challenge UA's current presence in SEA.

UA has more flights this summer than Delta in Seattle (47 to 43), but Delta serves more destinations (15 to 11), has about 50% more seats (UA has a lot more props and RJs into SEA than Delta) and Delta has a lot more international lift (UA has NRT, DL has NRT on a larger plane, HND, KIX, PVG, PEK, CDG and AMS). I'd say Delta is a much larger player in Seattle than United, even before the AS relationship comes in.


User currently offlineEASTERN747 From United States of America, joined Oct 2006, 472 posts, RR: 0
Reply 17, posted (1 year 2 months 1 day 10 hours ago) and read 7027 times:

Hang on to hats folks, pink slips are about to fly....On top of the lousy economy, the state of the world etc. There are alot of airline folks who are going to be out of a job because of this merger. Most probably many of whom can see their retirement not to far off. Here we go again with moral in the toilet and attitude issues starting. I remember when DL took over Northeast (BOS based) it took years to combine "those damn yankees and rebels" to work together. You see it now with CO and UA. Good luck to all those affected.

User currently offlinebobloblaw From United States of America, joined Jan 2012, 1446 posts, RR: 1
Reply 18, posted (1 year 2 months 1 day 9 hours ago) and read 6969 times:

Quoting ORD+Boy+2" class="quote" target="_blank">ORD Boy 2 (Thread starter):
Would UA possibly organically build a hub in the south between IAD and IAH? And if so,

The days of building new hubs are over for Legacies. UA cant afford to spend the capital needed to offset AA and DL's presence in the SE

Quoting point2point (Reply 2):
Well, certainly DEN-CLT, where UA/US do a code share, will no longer be workable

Any US/UA hub will likely see a reduction in capacity. In exchange there will be an increase in capacity between US and AA hubs.

For ORD, it means AA will probably pick up a few share points on UA. AA will now have strong city presence in places like BDL (hopefully upgauged ay A319s or E90s), RST, SYR., BUF, PVD (will probably get new ORD service). In the west there will be little impact on AA's ORD competitiveness.

Youll probably see UA sub UAX for mainline on ORD-PHL and ORD-CLT.

Quoting TWA772LR (Reply 5):
Before I get flamed, I know this is a pipedream. I would love to see UA build a hub at MEM that could serve as a leach to DFW and also serve the south.

No,,, with IAH only 400 miles away that makes no sense

Quoting commavia (Reply 4):
Actually, while I don't have the precise numbers in front of me (but being as this is A.net, I'm sure someone will), I suspect that the last decade has been far less a case of AA

I think youre mostly right, though I also think AA has lost a bit to UA in ORD. I also think that AA plus UA mainline in ORD today is only slightly larger than UA mainline was in 2000. In 2000, UA was at 450 mainline and AA at 350.

Quoting klwright69 (Reply 13):
UA could revive CO's old GSO hub?

No. CO never was successful there and that was CO Lite. Plus its far too close to IAD. No more hubs guys, no more hubs. Its all a dream. Only LCCs like Spirit will be building new hubs


User currently offlineFlyPNS1 From United States of America, joined Nov 1999, 6476 posts, RR: 24
Reply 19, posted (1 year 2 months 1 day 9 hours ago) and read 6905 times:

It will likely hurt UA a bit in the DC market as they lose a valuable codeshare partner in DC. I know many people who stay loyal to UA in DC because they can still earn miles on US flights out of DCA. With US gone, all UA has is the IAD hub, but IAD is a weak hub for domestic flights in perimter. It may also up open more slots at DCA to LCC's (since AA will divest away some slots at DCA) which may further weaken the IAD hub.

User currently offlineBC77008 From United States of America, joined Sep 2011, 269 posts, RR: 0
Reply 20, posted (1 year 2 months 1 day 9 hours ago) and read 6846 times:

Quoting cageyjames (Reply 10):
Im guessing UA will be jealous that they cant say their the worlds largest airline anymore :P


Poor Delta, they're number 3 again   



"He waited his whole damn life to take that flight. And as the plane crashed down he thought 'Well isn't this nice...'"
User currently offlinestxbohn From United States of America, joined Mar 2007, 52 posts, RR: 0
Reply 21, posted (1 year 2 months 1 day 7 hours ago) and read 6542 times:

Quoting klwright69 (Reply 13):
UA could revive CO's old GSO hub?

Funniest thing I've seen on the boards in years! Although I'm partial to GSO and dearly miss the CoEx/United Express IAH-GSO direct, survey says - X. I can't see how there'd be anywhere close to enough O/D traffic in GSO to support even a pass-through hub. But maybe with the loss of the Star Alliance fly thru Charlotte on US to get to GSO, we may get the IAH-GSO flight back.

Back on topic, United will just have a big hole in the southeast that you can only get to from the hubs and just do without any intra-southeast flying options.



"Thank you for flying City Airlines. We know you have a choice in airlines, and it looks like you made the wrong one."
User currently offlineORD Boy 2 From United States of America, joined Aug 2000, 278 posts, RR: 1
Reply 22, posted (1 year 2 months 1 day 4 hours ago) and read 5108 times:

The only options I could see are RDU, TPA, MCO, or FLL for mini hubs in the SE for UA. They can not just let the region go.

User currently offlinejporterfi From United States of America, joined Feb 2012, 424 posts, RR: 0
Reply 23, posted (1 year 2 months 1 day 4 hours ago) and read 5035 times:

Quoting TWA772LR (Reply 5):
Before I get flamed, I know this is a pipedream. I would love to see UA build a hub at MEM that could serve as a leach to DFW and also serve the south.  

That is similar to my dream. UA should increase its presence in ATL (and create a hub there) that could capture some traffic that would otherwise connect at DFW, CLT, DCA, or MIA. Then we would really have a fun situation in ATL: DL, WN/FL, and UA all under one roof!   


User currently offlineDualQual From United States of America, joined Mar 2006, 731 posts, RR: 1
Reply 24, posted (1 year 2 months 1 day 3 hours ago) and read 4802 times:

Quoting AllegiantFlyer (Reply 7):

SMI/J never used the phrase "largest". It was always "leading".


25 bobloblaw : The region won't go. Just because they don't have a hub in the region doesn't mean they can't be competitive for most of the traffic. Ok so UA won't
26 jayunited : Not exactly although AA will be the largest in terms of the number of planes, employees, and perhaps passengers served ( I say perhaps because UA los
27 Post contains images BDL757 : I don't really care how big we are; as long as I have a secure and profitable company then I'm happy. Especially one that gives me the profit sharing
28 jporterfi : Agreed. Just because they stop codesharing with US because of the merger doesn't mean that they will lose out on all the the traffic from the South.
29 FreshSide3 : ORD is indeed the market to watch. A few days ago, in the USA Today, they mentioned that AA has 35% of the market share there, before merging with US
30 Post contains images captainstefan : It will be interesting to see what happens on the E concourse - Will US' gates become AA's, DL's, UA's or AC's? I think DL is the frontrunner for the
31 TWA772LR : That would be epic! They have what I would call a pseudo-regional-mini-hub in FLL with the Silver intra-Florida and Bahamas flights. RDU would be the
32 LHCVG : Yup. Let's face it: DL and to some extent US have pretty much all the intra-SE/South traffic locked up anyway. For the vast majority of travel, flyin
33 AVLAirlineFreq : It wouldn't surprise me to see UA add either a few new routes and/or frequencies from IAD, IAH, and/or ORD into the southeastern U.S. IAD, in particul
34 delta2ual : Yes, poor Delta. If they keep doing what they have been the past few years, I'm sure they're crying all the way to the bank.
35 tommy767 : I agree. Best chance for a new hub in the UA network is FLL. Would be cool to see them eventually expand to FLL-AUS/RDU/BOS/LAX/PAP/STI/SJU or someth
36 oc2dc : I'm curious about how much feed UA will lose when US breaks away from STAR. I tried to book a flight from DCA to NRT on the US website yesterday and a
37 brilondon : Why do they need a new hub in the South East? Where was UA's old hub in the SE?
38 STT757 : I agree that those days are over, if it were 1993 and not 2013 I would say UA absolutely will develop a new Southeast domestic hub. The obvious optio
39 tommy767 : BOS and LAS are larger simply because they have more frequency to hubs. MCO and MIA had more cities and I'm pretty sure during the hayday of the MIA
40 STT757 : I don't know, LAS gets lots of 757-300s, 757s and 737-900s. I bet it's close. MIA domestically was 733s to most domestic cities, once daily. I always
41 tommy767 : These days LAS gets 757s, 320s, and 739s to all the hubs. There might be an occasional 753 to LAX or IAH. You also have to factor in that MIA had 741
42 T5towbar : I think that the landing fees and other charges are a lot lower than MIA. So there is a small buildup at FLL. More mainline will be heading that way.
43 STT757 : MVD was always served from JFK, via EZE , with a 763. With regards to MIA by 1997 the only 747 they flew was to EZE. MIA-GRU 1 763, 1 777- MIA-GIG 1
44 MAH4546 : For now. UA is going back to H/J. LAN just applied for building permits for it's new lounge in the D/E gates, so should be soon. It's LAN/TAM moving
45 jporterfi : Who will get the two new gates? UA? That would give them usage of 6 gates- impressive! I can't imagine AA is happy about having to share T12 with UA
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