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DOT Invites Carriers To Apply For New Brazil Slots  
User currently offlineLAXintl From United States of America, joined May 2000, 24802 posts, RR: 46
Posted (1 year 5 months 1 week 1 day 8 hours ago) and read 26851 times:

DOT has issues notice that it invites carriers to submit application for award of additional rights that are becoming available between the nations.

While the US and Brazil in 2011 reach and agreement to establish openskies, the agreement has stages that slowly liberalize market access through 2016.

Under the agreed terms, the US side is afforded the following additional rights effective October 2013:

Passenger carriers:
o 14 weekly frequencies to any point in Brazil
o 14 weekly frequencies to any Brazil point except Sao Paulo
o 14 weekly frequencies to any Brazil point except Sao Paulo or Rio de Janeiro.

Cargo carrier rights:
o 14 weekly frequencies to any point in Brazil


Application submissions are due by March 2, 2013.


It is important to note that US side already has 24 unallocated passenger frequencies along with 34 cargo frequencies, however none are available to the coveted Sao Paulo and Rio markets.


From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
263 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineB6JFKH81 From United States of America, joined Mar 2006, 2872 posts, RR: 7
Reply 1, posted (1 year 5 months 1 week 1 day 8 hours ago) and read 26906 times:

Hello B6, you are now at the corner of:



A thread a few weeks ago said they were looking to go to Brazil from FLL, not sure what cities the A320 will make it to from there, but this is an opportunity.



"If you do not learn from history, you are doomed to repeat it"
User currently offlineSTT757 From United States of America, joined Mar 2000, 16812 posts, RR: 51
Reply 2, posted (1 year 5 months 1 week 1 day 8 hours ago) and read 26874 times:

UA should apply for EWR-GIG.


Eastern Air lines flt # 701, EWR-MCO Boeing 757
User currently offlinejfk777 From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 8276 posts, RR: 7
Reply 3, posted (1 year 5 months 1 week 1 day 8 hours ago) and read 26842 times:
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OH can you smell the opportunity CLT ? Brazil the close and welcoming of Americans Emerging market country. Usairways should take advantage of this like a duck to water. A330 to GRU is the goal.

User currently offlineLAXintl From United States of America, joined May 2000, 24802 posts, RR: 46
Reply 4, posted (1 year 5 months 1 week 1 day 8 hours ago) and read 26784 times:

JetBlue could start Brazil tomorrow. As mentioned there are 24 unallocated weekly frequencies available.

These new slot opportunities are really only a beneficial for carriers that seek to serve hard to get access in Rio or Sao Paulo - two markets too far for an A320 (they are ~4100miles)



From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
User currently onlineAeroWesty From United States of America, joined Oct 2004, 20359 posts, RR: 62
Reply 5, posted (1 year 5 months 1 week 1 day 8 hours ago) and read 26737 times:

Inevitable question: Which are the largest unserved nonstop markets from the US to GRU and GIG, and what are their PDEWs?


International Homo of Mystery
User currently offlineRoseflyer From United States of America, joined Feb 2004, 9489 posts, RR: 52
Reply 6, posted (1 year 5 months 1 week 1 day 8 hours ago) and read 26729 times:

Translation. 14 weekly to GRU. 14 weekly to GIG. 14 additional slots that won't be used at all.


If you have never designed an airplane part before, let the real designers do the work!
User currently offlineRoseflyer From United States of America, joined Feb 2004, 9489 posts, RR: 52
Reply 7, posted (1 year 5 months 1 week 1 day 8 hours ago) and read 26657 times:

Quoting AeroWesty (Reply 5):
Inevitable question: Which are the largest unserved nonstop markets from the US to GRU and GIG, and what are their PDEWs?

Good question for GRU. I'm curious if AA would be interested in LAX, since Korean doesn't really count.

I have a feeling that any additional slots would go to adding frequency over new destinations. Other than LAX, I can't think of any other hub that would be able to fill the slots that doesn't have a flight already. Maybe PHL, but that's a long shot with CLT coming.



If you have never designed an airplane part before, let the real designers do the work!
User currently offlineMAH4546 From Sweden, joined Jan 2001, 32599 posts, RR: 72
Reply 8, posted (1 year 5 months 1 week 1 day 8 hours ago) and read 26654 times:

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 3):

OH can you smell the opportunity CLT ? Brazil the close and welcoming of Americans Emerging market country. Usairways should take advantage of this like a duck to water. A330 to GRU is the goal.


US begins CLTGRU in June; not long before AA discontinues it.



a.
User currently offlineLAXdude1023 From India, joined Sep 2006, 7493 posts, RR: 24
Reply 9, posted (1 year 5 months 1 week 1 day 7 hours ago) and read 26535 times:

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 3):
OH can you smell the opportunity CLT ?

Nope, sure cant.

Quoting AeroWesty (Reply 5):
Inevitable question: Which are the largest unserved nonstop markets from the US to GRU and GIG, and what are their PDEWs?

Id have to look, but Im pretty sure Boston is the largest market in the US without nonstop service to Brazil.

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 8):
US begins CLTGRU in June; not long before AA discontinues it.

I dont know. CLT-GRU may not be a bad flight if they can get the times right.



Stewed...Lewd...Crude...Irreverent...Belligerent
User currently offlineCODC10 From United States of America, joined Jul 2000, 2391 posts, RR: 6
Reply 10, posted (1 year 5 months 1 week 1 day 7 hours ago) and read 26419 times:

Resumption of the former CO EWR-GIG with a sUA 767-300ER makes sense.

User currently offlineRoseflyer From United States of America, joined Feb 2004, 9489 posts, RR: 52
Reply 11, posted (1 year 5 months 1 week 1 day 7 hours ago) and read 26354 times:

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 9):
Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 8):
US begins CLTGRU in June; not long before AA discontinues it.

I dont know. CLT-GRU may not be a bad flight if they can get the times right.

CLT is the third biggest hub in the US based on single airline passenger numbers just behind DFW. There is far more connecting traffic that goes through CLT than MIA, so it wouldn't surprise me if there is still a market even after a merger. It might in fact grow with the AA brand strong in South America and all the connection opportunities in CLT.



If you have never designed an airplane part before, let the real designers do the work!
User currently offlinemartinrpo1 From United States of America, joined Dec 2012, 63 posts, RR: 0
Reply 12, posted (1 year 5 months 1 week 1 day 6 hours ago) and read 26261 times:

LAX-GRU, LAX-GIG, and PHL-GRU (now with the merger) could work for AA. I see them applying to more secondary cities such as Fortaleza, Curitiba, Campinas, and Natal from MIA.

User currently offlineGentFromAlaska From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 3052 posts, RR: 1
Reply 13, posted (1 year 5 months 1 week 1 day 6 hours ago) and read 26203 times:

The big three being GIG, GRU and BSB

As WAG's go I can see F9 from asking for DEN-GIG for no other reason than to connect the Olympic training facility in COS.

AS from somewhere but not necessarily SEA Im not sure if the 738 or 739 has the range to fly non-stop SEA- Brazil possibly from ATL or MCI.

I would also think somewhere on the U.S. Canadian border. Other cities/airports in play would be MIA, ATL, NYC, DFW, CLT and LAX

As armchair route planning goes I also wonder if there might be an opportunity for B6 from SJU to any of the Brazil three Possibly using MCO as a launching city. SJU being a U.S. territory should qualify as a U.S. open sky city



Man can be taken from Alaska. Alaska can never be taken from the man.
User currently offlineC010T3 From Brazil, joined Jul 2006, 3681 posts, RR: 19
Reply 14, posted (1 year 5 months 1 week 1 day 6 hours ago) and read 26117 times:

Quoting LAXintl (Thread starter):
none are available to the coveted Sao Paulo and Rio markets.

Actually, 7 are immediately available for GIG service.

Quoting STT757 (Reply 2):

UA should apply for EWR-GIG.
Quoting CODC10 (Reply 10):

Resumption of the former CO EWR-GIG with a sUA 767-300ER makes sense.

If UA were interested, they would have already started the route, since like I mentioned, there are 7 GIG-eligible frequencies available.


User currently onlinemhkansan From United States of America, joined Jan 2010, 668 posts, RR: 1
Reply 15, posted (1 year 5 months 1 week 1 day 6 hours ago) and read 25994 times:

Brazil is amazingly important for AA. I wonder if we'll see the maturation of ORD-GRU/GIG service on AA or perhaps additions to secondary markets from DFW or more frequencies from MIA... LAX-GRU perhaps?

I sure hope we'll see a strong submission for new service from AA!


User currently offlineMAH4546 From Sweden, joined Jan 2001, 32599 posts, RR: 72
Reply 16, posted (1 year 5 months 1 week 1 day 6 hours ago) and read 25983 times:

Quoting martinrpo1 (Reply 12):

LAX-GRU, LAX-GIG, and PHL-GRU (now with the merger) could work for AA. I see them applying to more secondary cities such as Fortaleza, Curitiba, Campinas, and Natal from MIA.


LAXGIG wold never work. PHLGRU makes no sense when AA flies JFKGRU twice a day. LAXGRU I don't think is too far fetched, especially because AA will have 2-class 772s in about a year.

AA has already announced Curitiba. It and Porto Alegre launch in November 2013.



a.
User currently offlinepoint2point From United States of America, joined Mar 2010, 2740 posts, RR: 1
Reply 17, posted (1 year 5 months 1 week 1 day 6 hours ago) and read 25978 times:

Quoting AeroWesty (Reply 5):
Inevitable question: Which are the largest unserved nonstop markets from the US to GRU and GIG, and what are their PDEWs?

PDEWs - not really that much, other than the New York City area, Miami, and Orlando......

Brazil-U.S.A is a long distance. The flight with the least distance is MIA-MAO, and that is 2400+ milies. Most flights are are in the 4000-5000 miles range.

Quoting Roseflyer (Reply 11):
CLT is the third biggest hub in the US based on single airline passenger numbers just behind DFW. There is far more connecting traffic that goes through CLT than MIA, so it wouldn't surprise me if there is still a market even after a merger. It might in fact grow with the AA brand strong in South America and all the connection opportunities in CLT.

CLT-GIG is about a total of 20 pax per day, even with its nonstop. CLT-GRU is about another 20 pax per day. Really don't want to be bubble-busting here, but I really have doubts that this flight is going to remain...... in fact..... probably one of the first routes the new AA/US cuts.........

Quoting LAXintl (Thread starter):
It is important to note that US side already has 24 unallocated passenger frequencies along with 34 cargo frequencies, however none are available to the coveted Sao Paulo and Rio markets.

I can see why. Of the top 50 U.S. metro area, the New York City area, Miami, Chicago, Los Angeles, Orlando, San Francisco, Washington DC and oddly enough Las Vegas manage anything over 100 pax per day to Sao Paulo ( Boston is at 102, but.....).

And of the 50 top metro areas in the U.S...... other than the NYC area, Miami, and Orlando, Los Angeles and Houston, most major metro area barely manage anything near 50 pax per day in the U.S. - Rio market.......

Unless anyone is predicting that the U.S. - Brazil market is going to be growing in leaps and bounds...... there is currently probably more than enough nonstops in this market.



 


User currently offlinejayunited From United States of America, joined Jan 2013, 883 posts, RR: 1
Reply 18, posted (1 year 5 months 1 week 1 day 5 hours ago) and read 25936 times:

Brazil is a growing market on its own and it will continue to grow especially with the World Cup and the Olympics coming to Brazil in 2014 and 2016 we probably will see AA, DL, UA and US start adding flights into Brazil. I think AA/US will probably add the most flights followed closely by DL then I can see UA adding maybe 1 or 2 flights but UA would probably only add flights to the major cities and leave the secondary cities to AA and DL.

User currently offlineMAH4546 From Sweden, joined Jan 2001, 32599 posts, RR: 72
Reply 19, posted (1 year 5 months 1 week 1 day 5 hours ago) and read 25813 times:

Quoting point2point (Reply 17):
Unless anyone is predicting that the U.S. - Brazil market is going to be growing in leaps and bounds...... there is currently probably more than enough nonstops in this market.

But it is growing by leaps and bounds. It is has more than tripled in the last three years and growing around 15% annually.



a.
User currently offlinesteex From United States of America, joined Jun 2007, 1606 posts, RR: 9
Reply 20, posted (1 year 5 months 1 week 1 day 5 hours ago) and read 25787 times:

Quoting GentFromAlaska (Reply 13):
As WAG's go I can see F9 from asking for DEN-GIG for no other reason than to connect the Olympic training facility in COS.

AS from somewhere but not necessarily SEA Im not sure if the 738 or 739 has the range to fly non-stop SEA- Brazil possibly from ATL or MCI.

I would also think somewhere on the U.S. Canadian border. Other cities/airports in play would be MIA, ATL, NYC, DFW, CLT and LAX

I think you're greatly underestimating how far Brazil is from the USA, especially the western USA. Neither AS nor F9 operates an aircraft that can make it from the 50 states to GRU/GIG non-stop. DEN-GIG is 5085nm, slightly longer than DEN-NRT. Even MIA, which is the closest major US airport to Brazil, is over 3500nm from both GIG and GRU. A potential MIA-GRU would be about 600nm than the world's longest 737 flight, which is of course operated by a 73G.


User currently offlinereffado From Brazil, joined Feb 2012, 226 posts, RR: 0
Reply 21, posted (1 year 5 months 1 week 1 day 5 hours ago) and read 25768 times:

If another destination is served from BSB, I'd be impressed. Currently only connected to ATL and MIA, I could see a NYC-BSB flight. Well, I can at least dream about it.

User currently offlineadamh8297 From United States of America, joined Dec 2012, 824 posts, RR: 0
Reply 22, posted (1 year 5 months 1 week 1 day 5 hours ago) and read 25730 times:

Quoting point2point (Reply 17):
( Boston is at 102, but.....).

BOS-Brazil is about 150 PDEW and only tertiary markets not even served via MIA have grown at a decent rate but still are small 5-10 PDEW markets.

Clearly not enough for any United States Carrier to jump on a Brazil route.
Not high yielding enough for JJ to try it and connect to other deep South America as well.
Good enough for CM to try BOS-PTY and steal some traffic from AA and DL though!


Maybe someday with a change in US immigration laws, change in Brazilian visa laws, shift in global economics we may see BOS-GRU. It could be 2-3 decades easily.


User currently offlineklkla From United States of America, joined Jul 2004, 929 posts, RR: 0
Reply 23, posted (1 year 5 months 1 week 1 day 5 hours ago) and read 25702 times:

DL will probably apply for LAX-GRU just to get a.netters riled up about dart boards again.

User currently offlinepoint2point From United States of America, joined Mar 2010, 2740 posts, RR: 1
Reply 24, posted (1 year 5 months 1 week 1 day 5 hours ago) and read 25654 times:

Here are the 2011 daily pax numbers of the Top 35 U.S metro areas international markets as from the recent Brookings Institute report "to and from" Sao Paulo and Rio.

http://www.brookings.edu/research/interactives/aviation

....metro area..... Sao Paulo.... Rio

1 …. nyc …… 1167 …… 477
2 …. mia …… 1250 …… 354
3 …. lax …… 311 …… 104
4 …. sfo …… 147 …… 58
5 …. ord …… 198 …… 40
6 …. iad …… 134 …… 52
7 …. mco …… 907 …… 363
8 …. bos …… 102 …… 47
9 …. las …… 212 …… 57
10 … hnl …… 10 …… 6
11 … iah …… 67 …… 147
12 … atl …… 77 …… 38
13 … sea …… 31 …… 10
14 … dfw …… 72 …… 27
15 … phl …… 26 …… 11
16 … dtw …… 67 …… 8
17 … den …… 35 …… 15
18 … msp …… 25 …… 7
19 … phx …… 18 …… 7
20 … san …… 50 …… 22
21 … tpa …… 20 …… 14
22 … clt …… 20 …… 19
23 … pdx …… 13 …… 5
24 … bwi …… 9 …… 12
25 … rdu …… 19 …… 6
26 … stl …… 18 …… 4
27 … slc …… 21 …… 7
28 … pit …… 13 …… 5
29 … ind …… 19 …… 3
30 … msy …… 13 …… 17
31 … cle …… 16 …… 4
32 … mci …… 8 …… 3
33 … sat …… 8 …… 5
34 … aus …… 14 …… 6
35 … cvg …… 12 …… 5

…total.......5,129.........1,965



Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 19):
But it is growing by leaps and bounds. It is has more than tripled in the last three years and growing around 15% annually.

I think that it's going to have to grow more than that to fill the current available slots that are present......

Quoting adamh8297 (Reply 22):
BOS-Brazil is about 150 PDEW

Okay....numbers above here are 2011 pax numbers and are stated as "to and from", so per this report, BOS would have a total of 102 + 47, or 149 here in total "to and from" both Sao Paulo and Rio. However, this is in total, not in each direction, at least this is how I would interpret the "to and from" numbers in this report.


 

[Edited 2013-02-15 17:33:24]

User currently offlineC010T3 From Brazil, joined Jul 2006, 3681 posts, RR: 19
Reply 25, posted (1 year 5 months 1 week 1 day 5 hours ago) and read 26156 times:

Quoting mhkansan (Reply 15):
I wonder if we'll see the maturation of ORD-GRU

Well, perhaps we could see that. DL going after a second daily ATL-GRU is another possibility. It's also possible that US Airways will apply for CLT-GRU frequencies in order to replace the ones leased from UA. We don't know the details of the contract, but it might include a provision in case of merger or acquisition, so that it would automatically be rescinded.


User currently offlineflyby519 From United States of America, joined exactly 7 years ago today! , 1124 posts, RR: 0
Reply 26, posted (1 year 5 months 1 week 1 day 4 hours ago) and read 25856 times:

Quoting B6JFKH81 (Reply 1):
A thread a few weeks ago said they were looking to go to Brazil from FLL, not sure what cities the A320 will make it to from there, but this is an opportunity.

Maybe MAO? Thats about it for ~2500nm from FLL, right?



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User currently offlineTR1 From United States of America, joined Sep 2004, 265 posts, RR: 1
Reply 27, posted (1 year 5 months 1 week 1 day 4 hours ago) and read 26270 times:

How about DL JFK-GIG?

User currently offlineadamh8297 From United States of America, joined Dec 2012, 824 posts, RR: 0
Reply 28, posted (1 year 5 months 1 week 1 day 4 hours ago) and read 26219 times:

Quoting point2point (Reply 24):
Okay....numbers above here are 2011 pax numbers and are stated as "to and from", so per this report, BOS would have a total of 102 + 47, or 149 here in total "to and from" both Sao Paulo and Rio. However, this is in total, not in each direction, at least this is how I would interpret the "to and from" numbers in this report

You are correct - Brookings report is to and from you have to divide all your numbers you crunched by two to get the each way part. Also, #2 market to Brazil from BOS is CNF (and its gone down over the years) not GIG since many Brazilians in Massachusetts are from Governador Valadares which is about 100 mi or so from CNF.

Quoting point2point (Reply 24):
I think that it's going to have to grow more than that to fill the current available slots that are present......

Secondary Brazilian Market Growth to NYC/South Florida and MCO is ridiculous. Also all the US Airlines will have a Brazilian partner in the future for connections.


User currently offlinemd94 From United States of America, joined Oct 2006, 149 posts, RR: 0
Reply 29, posted (1 year 5 months 1 week 1 day 4 hours ago) and read 26210 times:

I would love to see someone try a direct VCP flight to avoid GRU traffic and delays.

Maybe DFW, ATL or MIA - VCP?



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User currently offlineLAXintl From United States of America, joined May 2000, 24802 posts, RR: 46
Reply 30, posted (1 year 5 months 1 week 1 day 4 hours ago) and read 26315 times:

Quoting klkla (Reply 23):
DL will probably apply for LAX-GRU just to get a.netters riled up about dart boards again.

Well we all know how well it worked out for DL last time with LAX-GRU.

Lasted what - a whole 7 months along with a suspension for a few weeks in between?

As Delta said in its DOT filing when it requested to move the slots to DTW instead;

"traffic has been much weaker than expected."
"Regretfully the awarded service cannot be economically supported from the Los Angeles gateway."



From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
User currently offlineGentFromAlaska From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 3052 posts, RR: 1
Reply 31, posted (1 year 5 months 1 week 1 day 4 hours ago) and read 26186 times:

Quoting steex (Reply 20):
I think you're greatly underestimating how far Brazil is from the USA,

I do have a geographical snapshot in my mind. I didn't check mileage. It is indeed a haul. Because F9 flies seasonally to SJO I suppose SJO could be used as a refueling stop.



Man can be taken from Alaska. Alaska can never be taken from the man.
User currently offlineflyguy1 From United States of America, joined Jun 1999, 1738 posts, RR: 4
Reply 32, posted (1 year 5 months 1 week 1 day 4 hours ago) and read 26156 times:

Interesting that this is announced now, as it appears one carrier Tam, is actually dropping its day flight to JFK.


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User currently offlineyellowtail From United States of America, joined Jun 2005, 6037 posts, RR: 2
Reply 33, posted (1 year 5 months 1 week 1 day 4 hours ago) and read 26098 times:

Quoting martinrpo1 (Reply 12):

LAX-GRU, LAX-GIG, and PHL-GRU (now with the merger) could work for AA.

First two could work for DL too.

Quoting reffado (Reply 21):
If another destination is served from BSB, I'd be impressed. Currently only connected to ATL and MIA, I could see a NYC-BSB flight. Well, I can at least dream about it.

What about IAH-BSB

Quoting klkla (Reply 23):
DL will probably apply for LAX-GRU just to get a.netters riled up about dart boards again.
Quoting LAXintl (Reply 30):
Well we all know how well it worked out for DL last time with LAX-GRU.

Times change, and this time DL has much more feed at LAX than before. And don't forget DL has sales teams in Brazil now too...



When in doubt, hold on to your altitude. No-one has ever collided with the sky.
User currently offlinepoint2point From United States of America, joined Mar 2010, 2740 posts, RR: 1
Reply 34, posted (1 year 5 months 1 week 1 day 4 hours ago) and read 26051 times:

Quoting adamh8297 (Reply 28):
You are correct - Brookings report is to and from you have to divide all your numbers you crunched by two to get the each way part. Also, #2 market to Brazil from BOS is CNF (and its gone down over the years) not GIG since many Brazilians in Massachusetts are from Governador Valadares which is about 100 mi or so from CNF.

Here's the Boston pax numbers to Brazil stated in the report

Sao Paulo……. 102
Belo Horizonte ……. 64
Rio de Janeiro……. 47
Grande Vitoria……. 22
Brasilia…….14
Goiania…….11
Florianopolis…….10
Curitiba…….9

Total........279

So yes, stating that Boston Brazil traffic is at 150 PDEW may be more or less accruate, but it's to about 8 different destinations spread about a country that is quite far away and very large in land area. To have nonstop flights Boston-Brazil, well..... Miami would be a very good connect place...... traffic just isn't large enough for such long flights with Boston.......

Quoting flyguy1 (Reply 32):
Interesting that this is announced now, as it appears one carrier Tam, is actually dropping its day flight to JFK.

The irony, eh?

 

[Edited 2013-02-15 18:34:55]

User currently offlineklkla From United States of America, joined Jul 2004, 929 posts, RR: 0
Reply 35, posted (1 year 5 months 1 week 1 day 3 hours ago) and read 25873 times:

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 30):
Well we all know how well it worked out for DL last time with LAX-GRU.

Lasted what - a whole 7 months along with a suspension for a few weeks in between?

I know. I was only joking. Although the fact that it was only 3 times a week and never promoted also contributed to the failure.

Quoting yellowtail (Reply 33):
Times change, and this time DL has much more feed at LAX than before. And don't forget DL has sales teams in Brazil now too...

Well, we can always hope. I tried it a few times when it was running last time and it was a big convenenience for LAX based travelers.


User currently offlineLipeGIG From Brazil, joined May 2005, 11416 posts, RR: 59
Reply 36, posted (1 year 5 months 1 week 1 day 3 hours ago) and read 25843 times:
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I don't think any airline will apply for these frequencies.

All airlines are expecting lower LF for the upcoming months and economic situation do not secure future growth in a sustainable way.

Any new route will mean share the current loads for the routes already being operated.



New York + Rio de Janeiro = One of the best combinations !
User currently offlinejfk777 From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 8276 posts, RR: 7
Reply 37, posted (1 year 5 months 1 week 1 day 3 hours ago) and read 25853 times:
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Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 8):
US begins CLTGRU in June; not long before AA discontinues it.

Why would AA discontinue CLT to Sao Paulo ? AA has never discontinued a flight to GRU, its been a license to print money for them, why else would they have 4 flights from Miami to GRU Daily.

Quoting martinrpo1 (Reply 12):
LAX-GRU, LAX-GIG, and PHL-GRU (now with the merger) could work for AA. I see them applying to more secondary cities such as Fortaleza, Curitiba, Campinas, and Natal from MIA.

All the secondary cities are viable from MIA since 737 and 757 can reach the more northern ones. PHL to GIG and GRU should be a goal, hey if DL can fly from Detroit, PHL should be easy.


User currently offlineBOStonsox From United States of America, joined Dec 2007, 1988 posts, RR: 0
Reply 38, posted (1 year 5 months 1 week 1 day 3 hours ago) and read 25737 times:

I think the only way we'll see BOS-GRU anytime soon would be if an Asian carrier like JL had fifth-freedom rights and flew something like NRT-BOS-GRU. I know JL used to do it through JFK and LAX.

FLL-MAO is within range of the A320. MAO does have AA service to MIA. FLL-BEL is about 130 miles longer than BOS-SFO, but BEL doesn't have international service so if B6 starts Brazil service, it will be FLL-MAO.



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User currently offlineincitatus From Brazil, joined Feb 2005, 4000 posts, RR: 13
Reply 39, posted (1 year 5 months 1 week 1 day 3 hours ago) and read 25621 times:

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 37):
Why would AA discontinue CLT to Sao Paulo ? AA has never discontinued a flight to GRU, its been a license to print money for them, why else would they have 4 flights from Miami to GRU Daily.

CLT-GIG is at much greater risk than CLT-GRU. The Sao Paulo - USA market is overall about double the size of Rio - USA and it is much richer. AA can use CLT-GRU to ensure that every small market in the US served by DL through ATL has an alternative through CLT on AA. I wouldn't count it out right now but anything is possible.


User currently offlinerwy04lga From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 3176 posts, RR: 8
Reply 40, posted (1 year 5 months 1 week 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 25366 times:

Quoting jayunited (Reply 18):
We probably will see....US start adding flights into Brazil.

I'll betcha we won't!



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User currently offlineas739x From United States of America, joined Apr 2003, 6087 posts, RR: 24
Reply 41, posted (1 year 5 months 1 week 1 day 1 hour ago) and read 25019 times:

Quoting GentFromAlaska (Reply 13):
AS from somewhere but not necessarily SEA Im not sure if the 738 or 739 has the range to fly non-stop SEA- Brazil possibly from ATL or MCI.

Not a chance. From MIA the 739ER would get its feet wet in the south Amazon. AS has no business doing Brazil, they have codeshares



"Some pilots avoid storm cells and some play connect the dots!"
User currently offlineCactus739 From United States of America, joined Jan 2004, 2441 posts, RR: 31
Reply 42, posted (1 year 5 months 1 week 1 day ago) and read 24819 times:

Quoting GentFromAlaska (Reply 13):
As WAG's go I can see F9 from asking for DEN-GIG for no other reason than to connect the Olympic training facility in COS.

That's cute... can't make COS-PHX or anywhere else in the US work...so let's drop an Airbus on COS-Brazil... lol



You can't fix stupid.... - Ron White
User currently offlineSTT757 From United States of America, joined Mar 2000, 16812 posts, RR: 51
Reply 43, posted (1 year 5 months 1 week 18 hours ago) and read 23853 times:

Quoting yellowtail (Reply 33):
What about IAH-BSB

EWR-BSB is actually a shorter route than IAH-BSB, however it's still outside the 757s range.



Eastern Air lines flt # 701, EWR-MCO Boeing 757
User currently offlineGentFromAlaska From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 3052 posts, RR: 1
Reply 44, posted (1 year 5 months 1 week 15 hours ago) and read 23187 times:

Quoting Cactus739 (Reply 42):

F9 seems to do well in Central America seasonally; I hear SJO is really doing well. Thus being the case why not try South America. Do I see in happening in a ULCC model; Not in the immediate future. Possibly as we get closer to 2016 and the Rio games. They were one of the first if not the first to jump on DEN-Mexico service some eight years after the DOT solicited western markets to various Mexico destinations.

It is my understanding PHX is one of F9 better performing markets from the DEN hub. When I checked last they offered six daily DEN-PHX flights



Man can be taken from Alaska. Alaska can never be taken from the man.
User currently offlineLAXdude1023 From India, joined Sep 2006, 7493 posts, RR: 24
Reply 45, posted (1 year 5 months 1 week 15 hours ago) and read 23040 times:

Quoting STT757 (Reply 43):

Not to mention EWR-BSB is much larger a local than IAH-BSB. If UA expands Brazil from IAH, it can only be to CNF. No other Brazil route could possibly work from IAH.



Stewed...Lewd...Crude...Irreverent...Belligerent
User currently offlinePIEAvantiP180 From United States of America, joined Sep 2009, 529 posts, RR: 0
Reply 46, posted (1 year 5 months 1 week 14 hours ago) and read 22876 times:
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Ok ok ill throw my self into the lions den and ask this, how about DL starting MIA-GRU, GIG. Every believer of DL will make MIA into a hub only if they could get GRU-GIG frequencies, well this is as good of an opportunity as any. All joking aside does anybody see AA asking for more GRU frequencies? Can MIA or maybe DFW support more service? I also believe AA would have the best chance of making it out of any of the carrier capable of flying LAX-GRU,GIG. Is this the year we see then try this route?

User currently offlineRafabozzolla From Brazil, joined Apr 2000, 1209 posts, RR: 0
Reply 47, posted (1 year 5 months 1 week 14 hours ago) and read 22730 times:

It's hard to believe loads are weak with the current fares... Anyway, just my two cents.

Pipeline dreams for me would be any flight to LAX or SFO.

I actually think Delta could give a shot at ATL-CNF, they applied for it in the original opening of frequencies back in 2008, if memory serves me correctly. Better chance to work than ill-fated attempts at FOR and MAO from ATL.


User currently offlinerealsim From Spain, joined Apr 2010, 645 posts, RR: 0
Reply 48, posted (1 year 5 months 1 week 14 hours ago) and read 22672 times:

Now that AA is solving their cost problems, I think they should apply for ORD-GRU to compete against UA at ORD and DL at DTW for the connections heading Asia. PEK and PVG are now 2 stops for AA.

However, if TAM finally joins OneWorld and AA intends to form some kind of partership with them, maybe we won't see many more routes to avoid more market concentration and ease its approval.


User currently offlineyellowtail From United States of America, joined Jun 2005, 6037 posts, RR: 2
Reply 49, posted (1 year 5 months 1 week 13 hours ago) and read 22580 times:

Quoting point2point (Reply 34):
Sao Paulo……. 102
Belo Horizonte ……. 64
Rio de Janeiro……. 47

Never realized Belo was a bigger market than Rio.

Quoting GentFromAlaska (Reply 44):
F9 seems to do well in Central America seasonally; I hear SJO is really doing well. Thus being the case why not try South America.

If that is the case, then they should do more C. America. SJO does fine although the LIR flights have hurt the overall LF.



When in doubt, hold on to your altitude. No-one has ever collided with the sky.
User currently offlinejetlanta From United States of America, joined Jul 2001, 3247 posts, RR: 35
Reply 50, posted (1 year 5 months 1 week 13 hours ago) and read 22625 times:

DL doing MIA-GRU/GIG in cooperation with Gol is not out of the question.

Who really knows, but I think people should keep in mind that whatever DL does, it will be doing with Gol as a partner. This is a relationship that is headed toward ATI and possibly a JV once Open Skies is in place.

ATL-GRU #2 is my first bet though.


User currently offlineLAXintl From United States of America, joined May 2000, 24802 posts, RR: 46
Reply 51, posted (1 year 5 months 1 week 13 hours ago) and read 22511 times:

Quoting yellowtail (Reply 33):
Times change, and this time DL has much more feed at LAX than before. And don't forget DL has sales teams in Brazil now too...

Actually during the last build up, Delta was just as big at LAX and served a larger set of destinations then currently.

Quoting realsim (Reply 48):
I think they should apply for ORD-GRU to compete against UA at ORD and DL at DTW for the connections heading Asia. PEK and PVG are now 2 stops for AA.

Have you looked at AA's schedules to China, PEK in particular ?

Unless you expect customer to sit around ORD for 12-hrs waiting for their connecting Brazil flight, using ORD as a connection point between is not an attractive strategy.



From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
User currently offlinePIEAvantiP180 From United States of America, joined Sep 2009, 529 posts, RR: 0
Reply 52, posted (1 year 5 months 1 week 12 hours ago) and read 22235 times:
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Quoting LAXintl (Reply 51):
Actually during the last build up, Delta was just as big at LAX and served a larger set of destinations then currently.

While that is true, DL's LAX-GRU flight was flown at or near the lowest operating levels that DL operated out of LAX, about 2 years after the last build up occurred.


User currently offlinedelta2ual From United States of America, joined Dec 2007, 614 posts, RR: 1
Reply 53, posted (1 year 5 months 1 week 12 hours ago) and read 22074 times:

Quoting STT757 (Reply 2):
UA should apply for EWR-GIG.

  



From the world's largest airline-to the world's largest airline. Delta2ual
User currently offlineFSDan From United States of America, joined Jan 2011, 750 posts, RR: 2
Reply 54, posted (1 year 5 months 1 week 12 hours ago) and read 21966 times:

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 37):
PHL to GIG and GRU should be a goal, hey if DL can fly from Detroit, PHL should be easy.

PHL-GRU would not even be close to being easy. DTW has auto-industry connections to provide at least some premium traffic, and also flights from NRT, NGO, ICN, PEK, and PVG to connect Asia passengers on to GRU. Also, ORD is the only competition geographically speaking, whereas PHL has JFK, EWR, and IAD just down the road. I would be very surprised to ever see PHL-GRU.

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 51):
Actually during the last build up, Delta was just as big at LAX and served a larger set of destinations then currently.

They were not quite as big as they are now. They may have served more destinations, but those were the likes of LMM, LTO, LAP, CUL, etc. with ERJs. Now they serve a bunch of significant West Coast cities with large RJs and higher frequencies.

Not saying that LAX-GRU would work for them if they tried it again, but they definitely are in a much more solid position than last time they tried.



SEA SFO SJC LAX ONT SAN DEN IAH DFW OMA FSD MSP MSN MKE ORD DTW CVG MEM JAN BHM RSW ATL CLT BWI PHL LGA JFK MEX LIM KEF
User currently offlineLAXSTEW From United States of America, joined Feb 2010, 40 posts, RR: 1
Reply 55, posted (1 year 5 months 1 week 11 hours ago) and read 21863 times:

Quoting FSDan (Reply 54):
Not saying that LAX-GRU would work for them if they tried it again, but they definitely are in a much more solid position than last time they tried.

could time it this go-around to connect with HND? maybe?? *hopes*


User currently offlineairbazar From United States of America, joined Sep 2003, 8194 posts, RR: 10
Reply 56, posted (1 year 5 months 1 week 11 hours ago) and read 21920 times:

The biggest obstacle to US-Brazil will be the lack of adequate equipment. Other than the 757, any other plane is just too big for service to/from most secondary cities in either country. The NEO/MAX may change some of that but even the likes of BOS-Brazil will be too far. All the focus of NEO/MAX has been on TATL routes, but I bet there are far more markets in US-S.America that will benefit from it.

Quoting adamh8297 (Reply 22):
Maybe someday with a change in US immigration laws, change in Brazilian visa laws, shift in global economics we may see BOS-GRU. It could be 2-3 decades easily.

I don't think immigration policy has anything to do with it. We already have 100+ PDEW and growing so people are doing it. The problem is yields and adequate aircraft. The market is big but not big enough for a 4,000nm route which can't be flown with anything smaller than a 757, and none of the airlines that could make money on such a low yield route (i.e. B6), have 757's or anything with the range. BOS-Brazil will have to wait for the next gen narrowbody.

To me the next logical routes from the US are from LAX, SFO, and ORD with the B788. BOS would be a distant 4th. But then again, DL does fly BOS-LHR and BOS-AMS so anything can happen I guess 


User currently offlinePanAm747LHR From United States of America, joined Sep 2005, 232 posts, RR: 1
Reply 57, posted (1 year 5 months 1 week 11 hours ago) and read 21851 times:

All this talk about AA and UA but little mention of DL. I smell JFK-GIG coming onboard, and maybe another crack at some secondary cities out of ATL now that we're tied up with GOL? Also, it'd be nice to see them start up LAX-GRU again. A) the cooperation with GOL should certainly help and B) DL would be very smart to time the flight to connect with NRT or HND this time around. Let's see what happens!

User currently offline2travel2know2 From Panama, joined Apr 2010, 2564 posts, RR: 1
Reply 58, posted (1 year 5 months 1 week 7 hours ago) and read 21108 times:

Quoting B6JFKH81 (Reply 1):
A thread a few weeks ago said they were looking to go to Brazil from FLL, not sure what cities the A320 will make it to from there, but this is an opportunity.

An A320 may be able to fly FLL-BEL. But BEL-U.S. market may be quite tiny.

Quoting LAXintl (Thread starter):
Passenger carriers:
o 14 weekly frequencies to any point in Brazil
o 14 weekly frequencies to any Brazil point except Sao Paulo
o 14 weekly frequencies to any Brazil point except Sao Paulo or Rio de Janeiro.

Does VCP counts as São Paulo or as "any point in Brazil"?

Quoting GentFromAlaska (Reply 13):
SJU being a U.S. territory should qualify as a U.S. open sky city

The only Brazilian market which may work out of SJU is perhaps GRU. Maybe if B6 is so desperate for Brazil, it should study SJU-GRU, specially if SJU has open skies with Brazil.

As my selection for most viable new routes between U.S. and Brazil:
UA EWR-GIG (former CO route)
UA EWR-CNF
US CLT-GRU
AA MIA-POA/CWB
AA MIA-VCP
And a dream route;
UA EWR-SSA-JNB



I'm not on CM's payroll.
User currently offlineRodRB From Brazil, joined Feb 2010, 124 posts, RR: 0
Reply 59, posted (1 year 5 months 1 week 6 hours ago) and read 20959 times:

Quoting 2travel2know2 (Reply 58):
Does VCP counts as São Paulo or as "any point in Brazil"?

VCP counts as São Paulo.

Quoting realsim (Reply 48):
Now that AA is solving their cost problems, I think they should apply for ORD-GRU to compete against UA at ORD and DL at DTW for the connections heading Asia. PEK and PVG are now 2 stops for AA.

The problem with connections to Asia is still the VISA.

AA, DL and UA cannot compete in equal conditions with EK, QR, EY, BA, LH, AF, SN, TK etc..


User currently offline2travel2know2 From Panama, joined Apr 2010, 2564 posts, RR: 1
Reply 60, posted (1 year 5 months 1 week 5 hours ago) and read 20893 times:

Quoting RodRB (Reply 59):
VCP counts as São Paulo.

This is bad for Campinas O/D traffic. If given the chance, pretty sure AA would jump to the possibility to fly MIA-VCP if no Sao Paulo (read GRU) slots were needed.



I'm not on CM's payroll.
User currently offlineDeltal1011man From United States of America, joined Sep 2005, 9289 posts, RR: 14
Reply 61, posted (1 year 5 months 1 week 5 hours ago) and read 20854 times:

Quoting jetlanta (Reply 50):

Agreed. Most likely ATL#2 outside chance of MIA-GRU.

Quoting PanAm747LHR (Reply 57):
I smell JFK-GIG coming onboard,

Delta could start this tomorrow. IMO the only chance of a GIG flight is if they do what Jet said. Start both GRU/GIG from MIA

Quoting PanAm747LHR (Reply 57):
Also, it'd be nice to see them start up LAX-GRU again.

Wont happen.

Quoting PanAm747LHR (Reply 57):
B) DL would be very smart to time the flight to connect with NRT or HND this time around

TYO has three other flights they can get to GRU on. (ATL/JFK/DTW)



yep.
User currently offlinejfk777 From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 8276 posts, RR: 7
Reply 62, posted (1 year 5 months 1 week 4 hours ago) and read 20755 times:
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Quoting FSDan (Reply 54):
PHL-GRU would not even be close to being easy. DTW has auto-industry connections to provide at least some premium traffic, and also flights from NRT, NGO, ICN, PEK, and PVG to connect Asia passengers on to GRU. Also, ORD is the only competition geographically speaking, whereas PHL has JFK, EWR, and IAD just down the road. I would be very surprised to ever see PHL-GRU.

With all the feed US has at PHL feeding a flight to Sao Paulo would require no additional feed then the existing feed for the European flights. IF the reasons listed above for Detroit are true then Delta should have all its flights to GRU from DTW and not ATL, but they feed ATL, as we know all too well. Most international flights out of PHL longer then 6 hours probably wouldn't be possible if it were not for the hub.


User currently offlineembrider From United States of America, joined Mar 2010, 26 posts, RR: 0
Reply 63, posted (1 year 5 months 1 week 3 hours ago) and read 20599 times:

Quoting point2point (Reply 24):
..metro area..... Sao Paulo.... Rio

1….nyc……1167……477
2….mia……1250……354
3….lax……311……104
4….sfo……147……58
5….ord……198……40
6….iad……134……52
7….mco……907……363
8….bos……102……47
9….las……212……57
10…hnl……10……6
11…iah……67……147
12…atl……77……38
13…sea……31……10
14…dfw……72……27
15…phl……26……11
16…dtw……67……8
17…den……35……15
18…msp……25……7
19…phx……18……7
20…san……50……22
21…tpa……20……14
22…clt……20……19
23…pdx……13……5
24…bwi……9……12
25…rdu……19……6
26…stl……18……4
27…slc……21……7
28…pit……13……5
29…ind……19……3
30…msy……13……17
31…cle……16……4
32…mci……8……3
33…sat……8……5
34…aus……14……6
35…cvg……12……5

…total.......5,129.........1,965

Thanks for the information. Very nice. Do you know what is the total daily offer of seats for GRU and GIG from US?


User currently offlineMCOflyer From United States of America, joined Jun 2006, 8661 posts, RR: 15
Reply 64, posted (1 year 5 months 1 week 1 hour ago) and read 20451 times:

What about the cargo slots?? Will FX or UPS apply for increased services or some smaller airline attempt to start service??

KH



Never be afraid to stand up for who you are.
User currently offlineairbazar From United States of America, joined Sep 2003, 8194 posts, RR: 10
Reply 65, posted (1 year 5 months 6 days 16 hours ago) and read 20195 times:

Quoting MCOflyer (Reply 64):
What about the cargo slots?? Will FX or UPS apply for increased services or some smaller airline attempt to start service??

Corgo flights to Brazil is a tricky business because Brazil imposes huge import taxes on goods. In a way what's driving this boom in passengers traffic to the US are these import taxes which makes shopping in the US a much cheaper alternative even when you include the price of the air fare. There's some pressure in Brazil for reform on these import taxes. If it happens that could have a significant negative impact on the passenger traffic.


User currently offlineMCOflyer From United States of America, joined Jun 2006, 8661 posts, RR: 15
Reply 66, posted (1 year 5 months 6 days 15 hours ago) and read 20055 times:

Quoting airbazar (Reply 65):

Corgo flights to Brazil is a tricky business because Brazil imposes huge import taxes on goods. In a way what's driving this boom in passengers traffic to the US are these import taxes which makes shopping in the US a much cheaper alternative even when you include the price of the air fare. There's some pressure in Brazil for reform on these import taxes. If it happens that could have a significant negative impact on the passenger traffic.

So in other words, it is cheaper to import stuff than to export it??? Regarding passenger flights, I'd bet that US/AA will get a couple and DL will get some freq to Brazil as well.

KH



Never be afraid to stand up for who you are.
User currently offlinejayunited From United States of America, joined Jan 2013, 883 posts, RR: 1
Reply 67, posted (1 year 5 months 6 days 14 hours ago) and read 19977 times:

Quoting realsim (Reply 48):
Now that AA is solving their cost problems, I think they should apply for ORD-GRU to compete against UA at ORD and DL at DTW for the connections heading Asia. PEK and PVG are now 2 stops for AA.

AA all ready has multiple non stops to GRU from JFK, MIA, and DFW they also have some slack in their wide body fleet so if they had wanted to compete against UA on ORD-GRU route they would have started this route already given the size of their operation at ORD and given that they are the dominate carrier to GRU from the US.

I think the bigger question is with all the slots AA has at GRU why haven't they added ORD to the list the non stops? Over the years this question has been asked on A.netters many times and there is never a real answer because it simply makes no since that UA has made this route work initially as a 767 and now for the past couple years as a 777 and yet AA has not even attempted to try.

While we do have some O&D traffic on this route and that traffic has increased a little over the years most of UA passengers on the ORD-GRU route are connecting passengers from SFO, LAX, and other cities out west as well as passengers coming in from NRT. So I'm thinking the reason why AA has not started ORD-GRU is because there isn't enough O&D traffic for 2 airlines on this route and they probably are happy sending most of their connecting passengers from the west coast to either DFW or MIA. Now I'm not saying that AA will never start this route I think they probably would like to have more O&D traffic on this route when they start it and right now that traffic simply does not exist in the Chicago market.


User currently offlinecommavia From United States of America, joined Apr 2005, 11410 posts, RR: 62
Reply 68, posted (1 year 5 months 6 days 14 hours ago) and read 19935 times:

Quoting jayunited (Reply 67):
if they had wanted to compete against UA on ORD-GRU route they would have started this route already given the size of their operation at ORD and given that they are the dominate carrier to GRU from the US.

Not necessarily. For some time, there have not been many, if any, free peak-time GRU arrival/departure slots available that would be viable for ORD-GRU. Down the road, when more of those slots become available, and TAM is (likely) a oneworld - and possible joint venture - partner, ORD-GRU might be viable.

Quoting jayunited (Reply 67):
I think the bigger question is with all the slots AA has at GRU why haven't they added ORD to the list the non stops?

AA's present slots are already well-used on the existing DFW/JFK schedules and of course the immensely busy MIA schedule. AA may not have added ORD-GRU due to the market being relatively smaller than, say, MIA or JFK, and/or not being quite as well-situated geographically as DFW, but it may also have come down to a precious limited number of GRU slots that had to be deployed as profitably as possible. Again - that may change in the future if/when more peak GRU slots become available.


User currently offlineDFWEagle From United States of America, joined Dec 2006, 1071 posts, RR: 9
Reply 69, posted (1 year 5 months 6 days 13 hours ago) and read 19893 times:

I think that an application for ORD-GRU service would be the best chance that AA has to get more GRU-eligible frequencies in this round. They could position their application as providing new competition to UA in a monopoly market and the 5th largest USA-GRU market. The DOT looked quite favourably on this argument with the China frequencies and gave AA ORD-PVG and later ORD-PEK, despite them already being served by UA. Also, it would benefit a lot of smaller cities served by AA's hub in ORD so they should be able to get a good level of support.

AA's biggest handicap in the application process is their dominant position in the USA-GRU market, because other carriers will argue that it's unfair to increase AA's dominance there. I don't think the DOT would give them more MIA-GRU or DFW-GRU frequencies unless there were no other applicants, and AA just added a second JFK-GRU already. AA does now use all their GRU frequencies daily, year-round with 772 and 77W equipment which will work in their favour when asking for more frequencies in the market.

An outside possibility would be LAX-GRU. With AA's good market presence at both ends of the route, the upcoming TAM partnership/codeshares and AA's hub/oneworld feed at LAX, they just might be able to make it work, but the history makes it look like real challenge. This idea might even stand a better chance of approval than ORD-GRU, but I think less chance of commercial success.

Let's hope we see a good, strong application whatever they choose, if anything.



Ryan / HKG
User currently offlineFSDan From United States of America, joined Jan 2011, 750 posts, RR: 2
Reply 70, posted (1 year 5 months 6 days 13 hours ago) and read 19855 times:

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 62):
With all the feed US has at PHL feeding a flight to Sao Paulo would require no additional feed then the existing feed for the European flights. IF the reasons listed above for Detroit are true then Delta should have all its flights to GRU from DTW and not ATL, but they feed ATL, as we know all too well. Most international flights out of PHL longer then 6 hours probably wouldn't be possible if it were not for the hub.

When it comes to serving South America, PHL is not well positioned geographically. All logical connections would have to come from Canada and the Northeast, where US mostly sends DH8s, CRJs, and E-Jets. Comparing that feed to the domestic feed DL has at ATL is likening apples to oranges. DTW-GRU would not work without a decent local market and Asian connections, and neither will PHL-GRU.



SEA SFO SJC LAX ONT SAN DEN IAH DFW OMA FSD MSP MSN MKE ORD DTW CVG MEM JAN BHM RSW ATL CLT BWI PHL LGA JFK MEX LIM KEF
User currently offlineLAXintl From United States of America, joined May 2000, 24802 posts, RR: 46
Reply 71, posted (1 year 5 months 6 days 12 hours ago) and read 19832 times:

Quoting airbazar (Reply 65):
Corgo flights to Brazil is a tricky business because Brazil imposes huge import taxes on goods. In a way what's driving this boom in passengers traffic to the US are these import taxes which makes shopping in the US a much cheaper alternative even when you include the price of the air fare.

Does not change the fact that Brazil is far the largest Latin America cargo market. It accounts for about 1/3 of the air cargo to the entire region and far ahead of Mexico and Colombia, and is the continents nexus for intra regional trade also.

Also very important to remember many things imported are not directly for consumer purchase but support industry - from petro chemicals, auto parts, machinery, electronics, pharma etc.

The primary Brazilian cargo hub are Manaus and Viracopos. Manuas is often the first point of entry as it host duty-free enterprise zone and growing center manufacturing and trading center from where the rest of the country is fed.

Imo with a decade of experience with freight to Brazil the biggest problem is not taxes, its old fashioned custom buerocracy followed by infrastructure.



From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
User currently offlinepoint2point From United States of America, joined Mar 2010, 2740 posts, RR: 1
Reply 72, posted (1 year 5 months 6 days 11 hours ago) and read 19721 times:

Quoting embrider (Reply 63):
Thanks for the information. Very nice. Do you know what is the total daily offer of seats for GRU and GIG from US?

You're welcome and thanks for the comp.

It's not to difficult or time consuming with pax numbers for me, because from various sites I can load raw data info into my spreadsheets, and then once the data is there, I can usually rather simply and quickly extract specific data. However, I do not have such with airline seats.

Since there isn't that many flights between the U.S. and GRU/GIG, I did some quick looking at the schedules in each direction, and aircraft types here, and will offer this......

DL
JFK-GRU ……..daily 764
DTW-GRU ……..daily 764
ATL-GRU ……..daily 764
ATL-GIG ……..daily 764

AA
JFK-GRU ……..daily 77W
MIA-GRU ……..4 daily 777
DFW-GRU ……..daily 777
JFK-GIG ……..daily 763
MIA-GIG ……..2 daily 763
DFW-GIG ……..4X weeky 763


UA
IAH-GIG ……..daily 764
ORD-GRU ……..daily 764
IAH-GRU ……..daily 764
EWR-GRU ……..daily 764
IAD-GRU ……..daily 777


US
CLT-GIG ……..daily 767


JJ
MIA-GIG ……..daily 330
JFK-GIG ……..daily 330
MIA-GRU ……..2 daily 777
JFK-GRU ……..2 daily 777
MCO-GRU ……..daily 330


KE
LAX-GRU ……..3X weekly 77W


I think that this is a big picture here of April 2013 traffic, but not claiming that it's 100% accurate..... and if not.... please anyone feel free to chime in with any corrections.

Then, I don't know the specific seat numbers of these planes, but what I'll do since a lot of the bigger birds are used here, I'll average about 300 seats per flight at 27 daily flights, and estimate about 8100 daily seats in each direction......

Okay..... again.... anyone can feel free to chime in if they want about how good or how terrible my guesstimate is here. And I am open to corrections....... and if anyone can get accurate info here, I'm interested as to how close my estimate is.......


 


User currently offlineMAH4546 From Sweden, joined Jan 2001, 32599 posts, RR: 72
Reply 73, posted (1 year 5 months 6 days 11 hours ago) and read 19755 times:

Quoting point2point (Reply 72):

Great list, but some corrections:

AA is double daily JFKGRU, 12w DFWGRU and up to daily DFWGIG (this sched is very seasonal).

TAM is double daily MCOGRU. It is currently double daily JFKGRU, but the daylight frequency is being discontinued in April. Also being discontinued in April is MCOGIG.

Also, there is Gol: daily MIAGIG and daily MCOGRU, both via SDQ.



a.
User currently offlinepanamair From United States of America, joined Oct 2001, 4868 posts, RR: 25
Reply 74, posted (1 year 5 months 6 days 8 hours ago) and read 19536 times:
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Quoting point2point (Reply 72):
DTW-GRU ……..daily 764

DTW-GRU on Delta is a daily 763, recently upgraded to the new flat-bed J version.


User currently offlineAA767400 From United States of America, joined Jan 2001, 2332 posts, RR: 26
Reply 75, posted (1 year 5 months 6 days 6 hours ago) and read 19344 times:

Since AA is the capacity leader in the market, and pretty much has their hubs covered. Where would they expand further? ORD-GRU, or LAX-GRU?


"The low fares airline."
User currently offlineLipeGIG From Brazil, joined May 2005, 11416 posts, RR: 59
Reply 76, posted (1 year 5 months 6 days 2 hours ago) and read 19143 times:
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FORUM MODERATOR

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 73):
AA is double daily JFKGRU, 12w DFWGRU and up to daily DFWGIG (this sched is very seasonal).

AA is operating DFWGRU 10x weekly only. One 772 is doing all the additional flights and will be back to daily this month.

Quoting point2point (Reply 72):
USCLT-GIG……..daily 767

Currently and up to the end of next month CLT-GIG is a daily A332.

Quoting point2point (Reply 72):
UAIAH-GIG……..daily 764ORD-GRU……..daily 764IAH-GRU……..daily 764EWR-GRU……..daily 764IAD-GRU……..daily 777

IAH-GIG 764, soon 772
IAH-GRU 763
ORD-GRU 772
EWR-GRU 764
IAD-GRU-GIG 772

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 73):
TAM is double daily MCOGRU. It is currently double daily JFKGRU

JFK-GRU = 9x 77W + 5x A332.



New York + Rio de Janeiro = One of the best combinations !
User currently offlineadamh8297 From United States of America, joined Dec 2012, 824 posts, RR: 0
Reply 77, posted (1 year 5 months 5 days 18 hours ago) and read 18969 times:

Quoting airbazar (Reply 56):
I don't think immigration policy has anything to do with it. We already have 100+ PDEW and growing so people are doing it. The problem is yields and adequate aircraft.

Immigration has something to do with it since there are many Brazilians here "illlegally." They cannot just hop on a plane to CNF and visit the family back home for a week. Also getting a visa to visit Brazil, especially a tourist market such as GIG, can be tedious (though easier than getting a visa China since a consulate is in Boston) so people do not bother and go somewhere else instead.

I agree with you with the yields and planes though. The only hope for a BOS-GRU route is GRU continuing to grow a global economic center.


User currently offlineLAXintl From United States of America, joined May 2000, 24802 posts, RR: 46
Reply 78, posted (1 year 4 months 3 weeks 4 days 8 hours ago) and read 18487 times:

Well the first ones are in.

AA seeks GRU service from both LAX and ORD.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/americ...s-additional-brazil-190000175.html

=



From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
User currently offlinejayunited From United States of America, joined Jan 2013, 883 posts, RR: 1
Reply 79, posted (1 year 4 months 3 weeks 4 days 8 hours ago) and read 18346 times:

To any ones knowledge has Delta or United applied for more slots?

Also If Delta and United have not applied for more slots how many slots do Delta and United currently have in their possession that they are not currently using or have leased out?


User currently offlineLAXintl From United States of America, joined May 2000, 24802 posts, RR: 46
Reply 80, posted (1 year 4 months 3 weeks 4 days 8 hours ago) and read 18300 times:

Apps are not formally due till end of business tomorrow.

Actually the AA one is not been filed either as of now. They only posted the press release.

I'm sure tomorrow we will know.



From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
User currently offlineLAXdude1023 From India, joined Sep 2006, 7493 posts, RR: 24
Reply 81, posted (1 year 4 months 3 weeks 4 days 8 hours ago) and read 18317 times:

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 78):
Well the first ones are in.

AA seeks GRU service from both LAX and ORD.

I dont hold much hope for success on LAX-GRU even with a two class 777. I think ORD-GRU is going to have a better shot despite the competition with United.



Stewed...Lewd...Crude...Irreverent...Belligerent
User currently offlineRodRB From Brazil, joined Feb 2010, 124 posts, RR: 0
Reply 82, posted (1 year 4 months 3 weeks 4 days 8 hours ago) and read 18302 times:

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 78):
Well the first ones are in.

AA seeks GRU service from both LAX and ORD.

That's great. AA will fly to GRU from all international hubs, am I right?

I think this application deserves a new thread


User currently offlineyellowtail From United States of America, joined Jun 2005, 6037 posts, RR: 2
Reply 83, posted (1 year 4 months 3 weeks 4 days 8 hours ago) and read 18302 times:

I would expect DL to apply somehow....ditto for UA.

Now what if one of these carriers made a surprise application for MIA-GRU. DL has a sales team in Brazil now so could probably make it work.



When in doubt, hold on to your altitude. No-one has ever collided with the sky.
User currently offlineCXA330300 From South Africa, joined May 2004, 1560 posts, RR: 2
Reply 84, posted (1 year 4 months 3 weeks 4 days 7 hours ago) and read 18225 times:

I could see AA going for CWB and maybe POA with this...or even a run at LAX-GRU?

Quoting B6JFKH81 (Reply 1):
A thread a few weeks ago said they were looking to go to Brazil from FLL, not sure what cities the A320 will make it to from there, but this is an opportunity.

It's pretty much BEL and MAO in range of the 320s, and that said, that's not necessarily the biggest guarantee of anything.

Now if B6 wanted to try something from SJU, that puts FOR, NAT, REC, SSA, and BSB within range. Still not the Golden Eggs of GRU and GIG; nor do they have the huge market advantage of FLL. Still something to think about, albeit likely in fantasy worlds.

Quoting CODC10 (Reply 10):

Resumption of the former CO EWR-GIG with a sUA 767-300ER makes sense.

Or even a 772. There's a lot of traffic.



The sky is the limit as long as you can stay there
User currently offlinemah4546 From Sweden, joined Jan 2001, 32599 posts, RR: 72
Reply 85, posted (1 year 4 months 3 weeks 4 days 6 hours ago) and read 18125 times:

Quoting CXA330300 (Reply 84):
I could see AA going for CWB and maybe POA with this...or even a run at LAX-GRU?

AA is applying for LAXGRU and it has already announced MIA-CWB-POA-MIA to start in November.



a.
User currently offlineb777erj145 From United States of America, joined Feb 2013, 100 posts, RR: 0
Reply 86, posted (1 year 4 months 3 weeks 4 days 6 hours ago) and read 18005 times:

It is going to be good to see who gets the slot. But i think it is going to be too much traffic between US and Brazil

User currently offlinenomorerjs From United States of America, joined Sep 2004, 444 posts, RR: 0
Reply 87, posted (1 year 4 months 3 weeks 4 days 5 hours ago) and read 17932 times:

It may take AA a year to get better ORD-BJS slots. Also, if AA adjusts schedules and adds a HKG flight (am) and adjusts schedules to other cities for 10 am departures and return to ORD around 5 pm, it would be a nice option from Asia to GRU and would impact UA as their schedules leave late and arrive early from NRT and HKG (long layovers).

User currently offlinemcmax From United States of America, joined Dec 2005, 304 posts, RR: 0
Reply 88, posted (1 year 4 months 3 weeks 4 days 5 hours ago) and read 17917 times:

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 85):
AA is applying for LAXGRU and it has already announced MIA-CWB-POA-MIA to start in November.

Looks like AA applied for LAX-GRU and ORD-GRU.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/americ...lines-seeks-ok-more-204859717.html

--Max



De minimis non curat lex tamen ego curao
User currently offlineDeltal1011man From United States of America, joined Sep 2005, 9289 posts, RR: 14
Reply 89, posted (1 year 4 months 3 weeks 4 days 5 hours ago) and read 17921 times:

Quoting jayunited (Reply 79):
Also If Delta and United have not applied for more slots how many slots do Delta and United currently have in their possession that they are not currently using or have leased out?

Delta has 21, 7x ATL-GRU, 7x JFK-GRU, 7x DTW-GRU. I also think DL may have one or two ATL-GIG frequencies that are un-restricted but at least 4x of them went to starting DTW-GRU. (two also came from the short lived LAX-GRU.)

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 81):
I think ORD-GRU is going to have a better shot despite the competition with United.

agreed. I don't think this is a bad route for AA. The question becomes how large does the DOT let AA get at GRU, or do they let others play catch up. (IIRC, DL/UA both have 21 weekly flights to GRU(ATL/DTW/JFK for DL, EWR/IAH/ORD for UA) AA is in the 42(?) range (3x MIA, 2x JFK, 1x DFW abouts?). This round may be the chance for the DOT to let DL/UA catch up. (because the DOT doesn't care about profits, just "lower fares")

*note, this is assuming Southwest doesn't get involved, if they do they will get all 14 plus the DOT will likely make AA/UA/DL give up something to make life "fair"*         

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 81):
I dont hold much hope for success on LAX-GRU even with a two class 777.

Better than zero... maybe a .05 on a scale of 1 to 10.

Quoting yellowtail (Reply 83):
Now what if one of these carriers made a surprise application for MIA-GRU. DL has a sales team in Brazil now so could probably make it work.

MIA-GRU/GIG wouldn't be shocking at all for Delta. GOL doesn't have the aircraft to fly it non-stop (and AFAIK doesn't have any orders for any) and lord knows Delta has all kinds of international capacity laying around.
I still expect ATL-GRU number two though.



yep.
User currently offlinejayunited From United States of America, joined Jan 2013, 883 posts, RR: 1
Reply 90, posted (1 year 4 months 3 weeks 4 days 5 hours ago) and read 17799 times:

Quoting Deltal1011man (Reply 89):
The question becomes how large does the DOT let AA get at GRU, or do they let others play catch up

Are the other airlines really trying to compete against AA at GRU or are they happy to let AA continue to dominate?
I ask this question because if you look at slots for HND or if you look at slots going into China UA and DL are right there fighting each other to gain any extra slots they can get their hands on. But with the GRU slots both DL and UA don't seem to be putting up a fight against AA to gain more slots. I'm sure if either of these airlines submitted a proposal the DOT would probably give them priority over AA do to the fact that AA is so dominate in the U.S. to GRU market. However that is not the case so if DL and UA do not want the slots the DOT can't tell AA no because later down the road these other airlines won't be able to catch up.

If DL and UA want to gain more slots they need to apply for these slots. The problem is AA has a rich history in Brazil and neither DL nor UA will be able to break what AA has built. It is no different than the history that UA and NW (DL inherited) has built in Asia. The big difference is AA is fighting to get more access into Asia however DL is fighting a little bit for more acces into brazil and UA seems to not even care about Brazil at this time which makes the DOT's job really easy one airline applies that airline gets the slots.


User currently offlineRodRB From Brazil, joined Feb 2010, 124 posts, RR: 0
Reply 91, posted (1 year 4 months 3 weeks 4 days 5 hours ago) and read 17803 times:

Quoting Deltal1011man (Reply 89):
(3x MIA, 2x JFK, 1x DFW abouts?).

AA currently fly MIA 4x daily, DFW 10x weekly and JFK 2x daily.

And how about US new flight CLT-GRU? It will survive after the merger?


User currently offlineDeltal1011man From United States of America, joined Sep 2005, 9289 posts, RR: 14
Reply 92, posted (1 year 4 months 3 weeks 4 days 4 hours ago) and read 17772 times:

Quoting jayunited (Reply 90):
if you look at slots going into China UA and DL are right there fighting each other to gain any extra slots they can get their hands on.

Not at all. US-China has like 28 used frequencies. (to PEK/PVG) I think CAN is at 14x plus DL/UA both sitting on 14.

Quoting jayunited (Reply 90):
Are the other airlines really trying to compete against AA at GRU or are they happy to let AA continue to dominate?

Delta has been trying to grow, Like i said they are about as big as they can be at GRU (and want to put the 744 on ATL-GRU but keep getting turned down for slots). Almost all the unrestricted slots are on GRU now. 1-2 maybe still be used on ATL-GIG.

Quoting jayunited (Reply 90):
However that is not the case so if DL and UA do not want the slots the DOT can't tell AA no because later down the road these other airlines won't be able to catch up.

well duh. I don't expect the DOT to tell AA no just because, I also don't see DL passing up at least 7x of them. No idea what UAL is doing, but Brazil is a market Delta is trying to grow into.

Quoting jayunited (Reply 90):
If DL and UA want to gain more slots they need to apply for these slots.

read above.

Quoting RodRB (Reply 91):
AA currently fly MIA 4x daily, DFW 10x weekly and JFK 2x daily.

ok so 52 GRU frequencies. jeesh.

Not sure but doesn't AA have some GIG frequencies that can be moved to GRU or are all the unrestricted Brazil frequencies at GRU for AA now?



yep.
User currently offlineaaway From United States of America, joined Oct 2003, 1521 posts, RR: 14
Reply 93, posted (1 year 4 months 3 weeks 4 days 4 hours ago) and read 17691 times:

Quoting mcmax (Reply 88):
Looks like AA applied for LAX-GRU and ORD-GRU.

I think AA is positioning itself well with World Cup (2014) and Olympic Games (2016) approaching. Another key factor will be Brazil's ascension to Visa Waiver Program status. There's been a bit of movement on that front - absolutely huge should that occur soon.

All-in-all, lots of forward momentum to potentially lift all boats besides AAs'.



With a choice between changing one's mind & proving there's no need to do so, most everyone gets busy on the proof.
User currently onlinebobloblaw From United States of America, joined Jan 2012, 1602 posts, RR: 1
Reply 94, posted (1 year 4 months 3 weeks 4 days 3 hours ago) and read 17564 times:
Support Airliners.net - become a First Class Member!

Quoting martinrpo1 (Reply 12):

LAX-GIG would de a disaster. 6000 miles and low low yield

Delta will probably apply for LAX-GRU but if they flew it before abd dropped it they'll get killed in the rebuttals. ATL-GRU #2 might work. JFK-GIG will also be applied for.


User currently offlinebsbisland From Brazil, joined Jul 2005, 376 posts, RR: 1
Reply 95, posted (1 year 4 months 3 weeks 4 days 3 hours ago) and read 17554 times:

Quoting aaway (Reply 93):

I think AA is positioning itself well with World Cup (2014) and Olympic Games (2016) approaching. Another key factor will be Brazil's ascension to Visa Waiver Program status. There's been a bit of movement on that front - absolutely huge should that occur soon.

All-in-all, lots of forward momentum to potentially lift all boats besides AAs'.

US-Brazil Open skies and end of visas will probably increase a lot the air traffic between the two countries. Will be interesting to see how the US-Brazil market will develop in the next years, specially after 2015. I see this market a lot bigger than it is now in ten years or so. As an aviation enthusiast it will be interesting to see how it develops. I hope the market develop to its full potential.


User currently offlineC010T3 From Brazil, joined Jul 2006, 3681 posts, RR: 19
Reply 96, posted (1 year 4 months 3 weeks 4 days 3 hours ago) and read 17486 times:

Quoting jayunited (Reply 90):
Are the other airlines really trying to compete against AA at GRU or are they happy to let AA continue to dominate?
I ask this question because if you look at slots for HND or if you look at slots going into China UA and DL are right there fighting each other to gain any extra slots they can get their hands on. But with the GRU slots both DL and UA don't seem to be putting up a fight against AA to gain more slots. I'm sure if either of these airlines submitted a proposal the DOT would probably give them priority over AA do to the fact that AA is so dominate in the U.S. to GRU market. However that is not the case so if DL and UA do not want the slots the DOT can't tell AA no because later down the road these other airlines won't be able to catch up.

Well, only frequencies are being allocated, not slots. That's a whole other story. It's possible that AA will face some problems launching LAX-GRU this year. Only next year will there be more capacity when the first phase of T3 is completed.

UA is in the best position today to introduce new service to GRU. They use frequencies for the tag-on service to GIG. If they axed the tag-on flights, they could introduce new service more easily. The only problem will be the parking position at GRU for two more aircraft.

Quoting Deltal1011man (Reply 92):
Not sure but doesn't AA have some GIG frequencies that can be moved to GRU or are all the unrestricted Brazil frequencies at GRU for AA now?

AA has already moved all to GRU.


User currently offlineDeltal1011man From United States of America, joined Sep 2005, 9289 posts, RR: 14
Reply 97, posted (1 year 4 months 3 weeks 4 days 2 hours ago) and read 17440 times:

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 94):
Delta will probably apply for LAX-GRU but if they flew it before abd dropped it they'll get killed in the rebuttals.

They won't be trying for LAX-GRU. ATL-GRU maybe more JFK-GRU capacity with a very small outside chance for MIA-GRU. Thats about it.

Quoting bobloblaw (Reply 94):
JFK-GIG will also be applied for.

not likely from DL. Same reason as CO for EWR-GIG. Delta can start JFK-GIG tomorrow as it has unused frequencies.

Quoting C010T3 (Reply 96):
AA has already moved all to GRU.

ah thanks. Just FWIW, how many frequencies do they hold for GIG? 2x MIA, 1x JFK and 1x DFW right?



yep.
User currently offlineC010T3 From Brazil, joined Jul 2006, 3681 posts, RR: 19
Reply 98, posted (1 year 4 months 3 weeks 4 days 2 hours ago) and read 17411 times:

Quoting Deltal1011man (Reply 97):
Delta can start JFK-GIG tomorrow as it has unused frequencies.

No, Delta doesn't currently hold any unused frequencies.

Quoting Deltal1011man (Reply 97):
how many frequencies do they hold for GIG? 2x MIA, 1x JFK and 1x DFW right?

Twice daily from MIA
Daily from JFK
3x weekly from DFW


User currently offlineDeltal1011man From United States of America, joined Sep 2005, 9289 posts, RR: 14
Reply 99, posted (1 year 4 months 3 weeks 4 days 2 hours ago) and read 17335 times:

Quoting C010T3 (Reply 98):
No, Delta doesn't currently hold any unused frequencies.

but i believe GIG has unused frequencies available. Thats what I mean.

Quoting C010T3 (Reply 98):
Twice daily from MIA
Daily from JFK
3x weekly from DFW

thanks.



yep.
User currently offlineklkla From United States of America, joined Jul 2004, 929 posts, RR: 0
Reply 100, posted (1 year 4 months 3 weeks 4 days 1 hour ago) and read 17233 times:

Quoting Deltal1011man (Reply 92):
Delta has been trying to grow, Like i said they are about as big as they can be at GRU (and want to put the 744 on ATL-GRU but keep getting turned down for slots). Almost all the unrestricted slots are on GRU now. 1-2 maybe still be used on ATL-GIG.

I've never understood this argument. Delta could move from 764 to 777 right now and add seats if they want to. Why skip over 777 and 333 to go to 744?


User currently offlineC010T3 From Brazil, joined Jul 2006, 3681 posts, RR: 19
Reply 101, posted (1 year 4 months 3 weeks 3 days 19 hours ago) and read 16989 times:

Quoting Deltal1011man (Reply 99):
but i believe GIG has unused frequencies available. Thats what I mean.

Oh, yes! There are currently 7 unassigned GIG-eligible frequencies in the unallocated pool.


User currently offlineMIflyer12 From United States of America, joined Feb 2013, 959 posts, RR: 0
Reply 102, posted (1 year 4 months 3 weeks 3 days 18 hours ago) and read 16971 times:

Quoting C010T3 (Reply 101):
Delta could move from 764 to 777 right now and add seats if they want to. Why skip over 777 and 333 to go to 744?

The differences between seat count and J:Y mix are pretty small between 764 and 777, the former at 40J 206Y and the 777 at 45J 224Y. There may be a utilization issue, too.

Delta has made a priority of putting flat bed J onto the Brazil routes and the 333s haven't been converted yet.


User currently offlineairbazar From United States of America, joined Sep 2003, 8194 posts, RR: 10
Reply 103, posted (1 year 4 months 3 weeks 3 days 18 hours ago) and read 16952 times:

Quoting adamh8297 (Reply 77):
Immigration has something to do with it since there are many Brazilians here "illlegally." They cannot just hop on a plane to CNF and visit the family back home for a week. Also getting a visa to visit Brazil, especially a tourist market such as GIG, can be tedious (though easier than getting a visa China since a consulate is in Boston) so people do not bother and go somewhere else instead.

Indeed, but many Irish and Italians are here illegaly too. My point was that there are already 100PDEW flying BOS-GRU so clearly a significant amount are not here illegaly and can afford to travel.


User currently offlinecommavia From United States of America, joined Apr 2005, 11410 posts, RR: 62
Reply 104, posted (1 year 4 months 3 weeks 3 days 17 hours ago) and read 17017 times:

AA's proposed schedules:

AA215 LAX 1930 GRU 1255+ 777
AA216 GRU 0005 LAX 0635 777

AA261 ORD 2130 GRU 1155+ 777
AA262 GRU 2210 ORD 0500+ 777


User currently offlineLAXdude1023 From India, joined Sep 2006, 7493 posts, RR: 24
Reply 105, posted (1 year 4 months 3 weeks 3 days 17 hours ago) and read 16939 times:

Quoting commavia (Reply 104):

AA's proposed schedules:

AA215 LAX 1930 GRU 1255+ 777
AA216 GRU 0005 LAX 0635 777

AA261 ORD 2130 GRU 1155+ 777
AA262 GRU 2210 ORD 0500+ 777

Frankly, I hope AA gets ORDGRU, but not LAXGRU. I dont think LAXGRU will be successful and it would waste a 777. ORDGRU has a better shot at success.



Stewed...Lewd...Crude...Irreverent...Belligerent
User currently offline2travel2know2 From Panama, joined Apr 2010, 2564 posts, RR: 1
Reply 106, posted (1 year 4 months 3 weeks 3 days 16 hours ago) and read 16868 times:

Quoting commavia (Reply 104):
AA261 ORD 2130 GRU 1155+ 777
AA262 GRU 2210 ORD 0500+ 777

Yes ORD is an AA hub, but Do Chicago and São Paulo need another U.S. airline flying between them?
Shouldn't AA be using that precious São Paulo slot to further increase its power in the MIA-SAO market flying MIA-VCP and let LA/JJ fly GRU-ORD?
IHO, if AA starts ORD-GRU, UA should do whatever possible to re-start MIA-GRU (or start MIA-VCP) as MIA can support 2 U.S. airlines flying to SAO.



I'm not on CM's payroll.
User currently offlineSCL767 From Chile, joined Feb 2006, 8748 posts, RR: 5
Reply 107, posted (1 year 4 months 3 weeks 3 days 16 hours ago) and read 16771 times:

Quoting 2travel2know2 (Reply 106):
Shouldn't AA be using that precious São Paulo slot to further increase its power in the MIA-SAO market flying MIA-VCP

VCP is not a LATAM hub.

Quoting 2travel2know2 (Reply 106):
UA should do whatever possible to re-start MIA-GRU

Should UA restart MIA-GRU, LATAM would most likely respond by increasing frequency on the GRU-MIA route to 3x daily. I'm sure that LATAM could find suitable slots at GRU; especially given the total number of daily flights that LA/JJ operate via GRU.


User currently offline2travel2know2 From Panama, joined Apr 2010, 2564 posts, RR: 1
Reply 108, posted (1 year 4 months 3 weeks 3 days 16 hours ago) and read 16751 times:

Quoting SCL767 (Reply 107):
VCP is not a LATAM hub.

And there are yet airports in Brazil which aren't LA/JJ hubs and AA still flies to those.
The AA MIA-VCP suggestion isn't because LA/JJ but because how powerful AA is in SAO, not the airport but the whole region.

Quote:
Should UA restart MIA-GRU, LATAM would most likely respond by increasing frequency on the GRU-MIA route to 3x daily.

Then better chances of Avianca Brazil doing UA the favour. As it's easier for Brazilian airlines to get slots to U.S. than for U.S. airlines to get slots to SAO.



I'm not on CM's payroll.
User currently offlinejfk777 From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 8276 posts, RR: 7
Reply 109, posted (1 year 4 months 3 weeks 3 days 16 hours ago) and read 16761 times:
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Quoting 2travel2know2 (Reply 106):
Yes ORD is an AA hub, but Do Chicago and São Paulo need another U.S. airline flying between them?
Shouldn't AA be using that precious São Paulo slot to further increase its power in the MIA-SAO market flying MIA-VCP and let LA/JJ fly GRU-ORD?
IHO, if AA starts ORD-GRU, UA should do whatever possible to re-start MIA-GRU (or start MIA-VCP) as MIA can support 2 U.S. airlines flying to SAO.

If any airline should be flying ORD to GRU its AA, why does UA need to fly it ? UA is not the force to Brazil AA is, its just another US airline flying to GRU from most of its hubs.


User currently offline2travel2know2 From Panama, joined Apr 2010, 2564 posts, RR: 1
Reply 110, posted (1 year 4 months 3 weeks 3 days 15 hours ago) and read 16683 times:

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 109):
If any airline should be flying ORD to GRU its AA, why does UA need to fly it ? UA is not the force to Brazil AA is, its just another US airline flying to GRU from most of its hubs.

ORD isn't MIA or JFK.. For Brazil-U.S. traffic it's mostly a hub, ORD doesn't have the major O/D MIA or JFK have. And location-wise AA DFW wins over ORD big time.
If AA thinks GRU slots are better used for ORD and/or LAX rather than for MIA, JFK or even DFW heck MCO, that's its prerogative.



I'm not on CM's payroll.
User currently offlineLAXintl From United States of America, joined May 2000, 24802 posts, RR: 46
Reply 111, posted (1 year 4 months 3 weeks 3 days 15 hours ago) and read 16701 times:

A little clarification on the AA proposal.

As far as the DOT is concerned for this 2013 allocation proceeding they are seeking only a single flight - LAX - effective November 21, 2013.

The ORD proposal which they show with a proposed November 20, 2014 start up would be from 2014 frequency allocation and more for informational purposes.

Quoting commavia (Reply 104):
AA215 LAX 1930 GRU 1255+ 777
AA216 GRU 0005 LAX 0635 777

DOT filling is slightly different.

AA215 LAX-GRU 1915-1255



From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
User currently offlineC010T3 From Brazil, joined Jul 2006, 3681 posts, RR: 19
Reply 112, posted (1 year 4 months 3 weeks 3 days 15 hours ago) and read 16665 times:

Quoting 2travel2know2 (Reply 108):
And there are yet airports in Brazil which aren't LA/JJ hubs and AA still flies to those.
The AA MIA-VCP suggestion isn't because LA/JJ but because how powerful AA is in SAO, not the airport but the whole region.

VCP is largely overshadowed by GRU. The airport is still not viable for international service. TP flies to it, but they really shouldn't. The only reason is because they can't get additional frequencies to GRU.

Quoting 2travel2know2 (Reply 108):
Then better chances of Avianca Brazil doing UA the favour. As it's easier for Brazilian airlines to get slots to U.S. than for U.S. airlines to get slots to SAO.

Frequencies, yes, but for slots, no, since both Brazilian and foreign carriers go through the same slot allocation process.


User currently offlineAA767400 From United States of America, joined Jan 2001, 2332 posts, RR: 26
Reply 113, posted (1 year 4 months 3 weeks 3 days 13 hours ago) and read 16503 times:

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 105):
Frankly, I hope AA gets ORDGRU, but not LAXGRU. I dont think LAXGRU will be successful and it would waste a 777. ORDGRU has a better shot at success.

We get it. You think it will fail.

I'm more optimistic - With a 2-class 777, AA/JL/CX LAX connections, and JJ's excellent connections at the GRU end, I think this can work. It would work better with a 787, but that's not available right now.



"The low fares airline."
User currently offlineLAXintl From United States of America, joined May 2000, 24802 posts, RR: 46
Reply 114, posted (1 year 4 months 3 weeks 3 days 13 hours ago) and read 16506 times:

btw - when is the first 777 2-cabin retrofits supposed to begin?

In the DOT application - AA repeatedly states is plans to offer 247 seat 3-class service and list the FCY breakdown also.


Also for those that might be interested AA supplied a list of the largest GRU-USA O&D routes.

1 GRU MIA 307,690
2 GRU JFK 258,022
3 GRU MCO 216,669
4 GRU LAX 88,428
5 GRU LAS 64,056
6 GRU EWR 61,393
7 GRU ORD 48,445
8 GRU SFO 43,220
9 BOS GRU 29,990
10 GRU IAD 27,615



From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
User currently offlineAA767400 From United States of America, joined Jan 2001, 2332 posts, RR: 26
Reply 115, posted (1 year 4 months 3 weeks 3 days 13 hours ago) and read 16453 times:

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 114):

btw - when is the first 777 2-cabin retrofits supposed to begin?

In the DOT application - AA repeatedly states is plans to offer 247 seat 3-class service and list the FCY breakdown also.

If memory serves me, I believe this fall they were slated for conversion.

AA stated a 3-class since that's what they only have currently. Legally they have to state such?



"The low fares airline."
User currently offlineIrishAyes From United States of America, joined Jan 2008, 2158 posts, RR: 15
Reply 116, posted (1 year 4 months 3 weeks 3 days 12 hours ago) and read 16427 times:

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 105):
Frankly, I hope AA gets ORDGRU, but not LAXGRU. I dont think LAXGRU will be successful and it would waste a 777

It would be a waste of TWO 777s, not just one.

Quoting 2travel2know2 (Reply 106):
IHO, if AA starts ORD-GRU, UA should do whatever possible to re-start MIA-GRU (or start MIA-VCP) as MIA can support 2 U.S. airlines flying to SAO.

This will go down like the DL MIA-LHR flight.

Quoting AA767400 (Reply 113):
We get it. You think it will fail.

I'm more optimistic - With a 2-class 777, AA/JL/CX LAX connections, and AM-Transportes Aereos Meridionais (Brazil)">JJ's excellent connections at the GRU end, I think this can work. It would work better with a 787, but that's not available right now.

If you look at the timings, the connections to other AA's Asian network and other OneWorld carriers pretty much suck except for a select few.

Let's start with Narita. It looks like the route will connect well to the AA LAX > NRT flight on the outbound (6:30 AM arrival in LAX from SAO, 10:50 AM departure to NRT) but poorly on the return NRT > LAX (8:35 AM arrival from TYO, 19:30 departure to SAO).

JL's LAX > NRT flight leaves at 11:55 am, so not too shabby. The return, however, similar to AA, arrives in the morning at 10 AM.

Connections to AA's PVG work in the opposite direction: PVG > LAX arrives at 17:15, LAX > SAO departs at 19:30. Versus 6:35 AM arrival from SAO, 13:30 departure back to PVG from LAX.

CX offers one departure from LAX at 11:25 AM (3x weekly) and the rest depart LAX for HKG in the late evening, so that doesn't really provide great connection options, either. In the opposite direction, CX has a flight that lands at 9:40 (3x weekly) 13:05 (daily) and 20:05 (daily), so none of those options are great.

Anything I am missing?



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User currently offlineLAXintl From United States of America, joined May 2000, 24802 posts, RR: 46
Reply 117, posted (1 year 4 months 3 weeks 3 days 12 hours ago) and read 16355 times:

Quoting AA767400 (Reply 115):
AA stated a 3-class since that's what they only have currently. Legally they have to state such?

Nothing stops them from making comment such as

"soon to be converted 2-class, xxx seat Boeing 777"

Quoting IrishAyes (Reply 116):
Anything I am missing?

You are right, timings for Asia connections are pretty terrible, so that clearly is not going to be much of an option for folks.

So a LAX flight will have to focus on local and West Coast demand.

I do wonder what a LAX-GRU nonstop would do for AA's DFW-GRU. Clearly California is a top feeder market for the DFW flight which is extremely reliant on feed being such a small local market.



From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
User currently offlinecrAAzy From United States of America, joined Jan 2008, 767 posts, RR: 0
Reply 118, posted (1 year 4 months 3 weeks 3 days 12 hours ago) and read 16290 times:
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Quoting LAXintl (Reply 114):
btw - when is the first 777 2-cabin retrofits supposed to begin?

772 conversions are not expected to begin until sometime in 2014 now.

Quoting IrishAyes (Reply 116):
Anything I am missing?

Don't forget MH (maybe) and QF - still not great though.

However, an expanded AA/US at LAX combined with AS connections along the west coast could provide some nice domestic feed for both flights. Also flights are good for Hawaii connections but I'm not sure of the passenger numbers between Brazil and Hawaii.

I think ultimately LAX-GRU and ORD-GRU could be prime routes for AA's new 787s.


User currently offlineC010T3 From Brazil, joined Jul 2006, 3681 posts, RR: 19
Reply 119, posted (1 year 4 months 3 weeks 3 days 12 hours ago) and read 16289 times:

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 111):

A little clarification on the AA proposal.

As far as the DOT is concerned for this 2013 allocation proceeding they are seeking only a single flight - LAX - effective November 21, 2013.

The ORD proposal which they show with a proposed November 20, 2014 start up would be from 2014 frequency allocation and more for informational purposes.

I really think that you should read the notice inviting applications once again. It's clearly about both years, 2013 and 2014.

AA's application for ORD-GRU is for real.

http://www.regulations.gov/#!documentDetail;D=DOT-OST-1998-20-0615
http://www.regulations.gov/#!documentDetail;D=DOT-OST-2013-0041-0001


User currently offlineIrishAyes From United States of America, joined Jan 2008, 2158 posts, RR: 15
Reply 120, posted (1 year 4 months 3 weeks 3 days 12 hours ago) and read 16291 times:

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 117):
I do wonder what a LAX-GRU nonstop would do for AA's DFW-GRU. Clearly California is a top feeder market for the DFW flight which is extremely reliant on feed being such a small local market.

Good question. DFWGRU has a record of strong performance, and indeed, relies on feed from the West Coast and Midwest. How will DFW, then, be impacted from the new ORD and LAX nonstops?



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User currently offlineLAXdude1023 From India, joined Sep 2006, 7493 posts, RR: 24
Reply 121, posted (1 year 4 months 3 weeks 3 days 12 hours ago) and read 16303 times:

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 117):
I do wonder what a LAX-GRU nonstop would do for AA's DFW-GRU. Clearly California is a top feeder market for the DFW flight which is extremely reliant on feed being such a small local market.

Probably some for sure. Outside of DFW itself, LAX is the largest contributor to the DFW-GRU flight.

In the end though, if it comes down to choosing between DFW-GRU and LAX-GRU, they will protect DFW-GRU. Right now, as things currently are, DFW-GRU is one of the most profitable routes in AA's entire network. If LAX-GRU starts and (against my predictions) is a success, DFW-GRU will probably hold fast at a daily 777.



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User currently offlinepsa1011 From United States of America, joined Jan 2011, 290 posts, RR: 0
Reply 122, posted (1 year 4 months 3 weeks 3 days 12 hours ago) and read 16259 times:
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Quoting LAXintl (Reply 117):
You are right, timings for Asia connections are pretty terrible, so that clearly is not going to be much of an option for folks.

I think NH & JL could help solve this problem by swapping Haneda slots. NH would move their HND-LAX to SFO, and JL would move theirs to LAX. This would mean that someone flying GRU-LAX could at least have a reasonable connection on the return, and UA would finally have some JV benefit on SFO-HND.

But I'm sure there are all sorts of reasons why JL & and NH fly where they do. Plus, Oneworld may already have enough LAX-TYO. And finally, someone might not be able to book GRU-LAX-NRT, HND-LAX-GRU cheaply.

Ultimately though I think the Asian cx need to cooperate to make these connections work.


User currently offlinejayunited From United States of America, joined Jan 2013, 883 posts, RR: 1
Reply 123, posted (1 year 4 months 3 weeks 3 days 11 hours ago) and read 16256 times:

Quoting jfk777 (Reply 109):
If any airline should be flying ORD to GRU its AA, why does UA need to fly it ? UA is not the force to Brazil AA is, its just another US airline flying to GRU from most of its hubs.


UA needs to fly ORD-GRU do to connecting passenger demand. UA has a lot of passengers that connect off UA's and ANA's NRT flights and we also get passenger from our other flights from Asia. We also get a lot of passengers from the west coast from places like LAX and SFO.Some are O&D west coast passengers while other came to the west coast from Asia. UA has been on this route for years starting it as a 767 and for the past 3 years a 777 this is all do to connecting passengers.

AA if they receive the green light from the DOT can launch ORD-GRU but it won't change a thing in this market because the O&D market between these to cities is extremely small. A lot of times UA's ORD-GRU flight might only have 25 local passengers onboard despite the fact that the 777 is going out completely full. So AA emergence into this market will have effect on UA.

But how will ORD and LAX effect AA's DFW-GRU flights? Both MIA and JFK have more than enough O&D traffic to support multiple non stops with needing a ton of connecting traffic but how is the O&D market in DFW? Will DFW still be able to maintain 10x weekly to GRU once LAX and ORD start stealing passenger from that route? I know many of you believe that just because its American Airlines they will be successful on the ORD-GRU route but make no mistake about it there is no substantial market here in Chicago and in order to fill a 767 or a777 AA is going to have to route a lot of passengers to ORD and those passengers will have to come from somewhere so how will that effect DFW especially with them flying wanting to fly from LAX as well.


User currently offlineLAXintl From United States of America, joined May 2000, 24802 posts, RR: 46
Reply 124, posted (1 year 4 months 3 weeks 3 days 11 hours ago) and read 16215 times:

Quoting crAAzy (Reply 118):
However, an expanded AA/US at LAX combined with AS connections along the west coast could provide some nice domestic feed for both flights.

US is about useless - PHX is a market already served by AA.

Yes AS can bring people down, however I dont think SEA/PDX/ANC are much of markets to Brazil.

AA already has SFO/LAS service which I suppose would be the potential largest feeder markets in the Western US via LAX.

Quoting C010T3 (Reply 119):
I really think that you should read the notice inviting applications once again. It's clearly about both years, 2013 and 2014.

AA's application for ORD-GRU is for real.

There is nothing to re-read.

This is like the multi-year China awards.

First 2013 is settled, then 2014 is looked at.

Also if you read the AA application, they are only asking for ORD-GRU is they receive LAX-GRU in 2013. The ORD proposal is contingent on receiving the LAX flight.

If they fail to get the LAX flight in 2013, then they say will try for it again for LAX for the 2014 award, and ORD can wait for openskies post 2015.

Quoting psa1011 (Reply 122):
I think NH & JL could help solve this problem by swapping Haneda slots. NH would move their HND-LAX to SFO, and JL would move theirs to LAX.

Why would they do that. For ANA it would mean double daily daytime service. Today they have both daytime and evening Tokyo service. Things work nicely at the moment.

[Edited 2013-03-01 10:55:17]


From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
User currently offlineC010T3 From Brazil, joined Jul 2006, 3681 posts, RR: 19
Reply 125, posted (1 year 4 months 3 weeks 3 days 11 hours ago) and read 16156 times:

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 124):
There is nothing to re-read.

This is like the multi-year China awards.

First 2013 is settled, and downline 2014 is looked at.

Also if you read the AA application, they are only asking for ORD-GRU is they receive LAX-GRU in 2013. The ORD proposal is contingent on receiving the LAX flight.

If they fail to get the LAX flight in 2013, then they say will try for it again for LAX in the 2014 award, and ORD can wait for openskies post 2015.

They will not try again, because both years will be decided at once. That's why ORD-GRU is not informational in the application. They're giving preference to LAX-GRU. There is no question about it.


User currently offlinepsa1011 From United States of America, joined Jan 2011, 290 posts, RR: 0
Reply 126, posted (1 year 4 months 3 weeks 3 days 11 hours ago) and read 16179 times:
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Quoting LAXintl (Reply 124):
Why would they do that. For ANA it would mean double daily daytime service. The way they have it now is a daytime and evening service. Things work nicely.

I'm unclear - the NH LAX-HND flight departs @ 12AM, while the LAX-NRT flight departs @ 1130AM. JL also flies daylight to TYO.

If JL started HND-LAX, it would provide for a nice connection to LAX-GRU on Oneworld. I'm sure UA would love the swap.


User currently offlineincitatus From Brazil, joined Feb 2005, 4000 posts, RR: 13
Reply 127, posted (1 year 4 months 3 weeks 3 days 11 hours ago) and read 16138 times:

Quoting IrishAyes (Reply 116):
Anything I am missing?

I would look at it through multiple hubs. LAX will be a good connecting point for selected destinations in a single direction. Once it is combined with connectivity through DFW and JFK (and ORD) on AA and Asian partners, I guess a strong picture emerges.

I would not discount interlines at LAX either. Some time-sensitive business people will purchase the itinerary that fits their schedule, no matter the airline combo. LAX is a very diverse airport.


User currently offlineIrishAyes From United States of America, joined Jan 2008, 2158 posts, RR: 15
Reply 128, posted (1 year 4 months 3 weeks 3 days 10 hours ago) and read 16115 times:

Quoting jayunited (Reply 123):
A lot of times UA's ORD-GRU flight might only have 25 local passengers onboard despite the fact that the 777 is going out completely full. So AA emergence into this market will have effect on UA.

Sometimes, when I arrive at ORD late at night, I like to watch the GRU flight board from the C concourse and, while not always the best indicator (I feel dumb saying this) I've noticed many a time when the departure screen shows a relatively empty J-class cabin on this flight, so it makes me wonder how it performs.

Quoting C010T3 (Reply 125):
They're giving preference to LAX-GRU. There is no question about it.

Which is what stumps me. There is far greater potential in ORDGRU, but perhaps AA feels it stands a better chance launching GRU to a cornerstone hub with fewer ASMs (being LAXGRU on KE 3x weekly vs. ORDGRU daily on UA).



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User currently offlineLAXdude1023 From India, joined Sep 2006, 7493 posts, RR: 24
Reply 129, posted (1 year 4 months 3 weeks 3 days 10 hours ago) and read 16144 times:

Quoting IrishAyes (Reply 128):
Sometimes, when I arrive at ORD late at night, I like to watch the GRU flight board from the C concourse and, while not always the best indicator (I feel dumb saying this) I've noticed many a time when the departure screen shows a relatively empty J-class cabin on this flight, so it makes me wonder how it performs.

The ORD-GRU flight on UA has the single lowest loads of any GRU flight originating from the US. However, Ive been told that UA has some good contracts (like Motorola) for that flight.



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User currently offlineC010T3 From Brazil, joined Jul 2006, 3681 posts, RR: 19
Reply 130, posted (1 year 4 months 3 weeks 3 days 10 hours ago) and read 16065 times:

Quoting IrishAyes (Reply 128):
Which is what stumps me. There is far greater potential in ORDGRU, but perhaps AA feels it stands a better chance launching GRU to a cornerstone hub with fewer ASMs (being LAXGRU on KE 3x weekly vs. ORDGRU daily on UA).

At LAX, they don't have UA as a competitor, not to mention that it seems that ORD would affect DFW's performance more. AA is trying to gain market share in California's by concentrating demand that is scattered between carriers.


User currently offlineaf086 From France, joined Jan 2007, 1059 posts, RR: 9
Reply 131, posted (1 year 4 months 3 weeks 3 days 10 hours ago) and read 16072 times:

Apparently DL and UA will not apply to fly NYC-GIG this time and seems that AA won't increase frequencies on the DFW-GIG route on a year round basis. Unfortunately.


Please insert a "smart" joke here.
User currently offlinemah4546 From Sweden, joined Jan 2001, 32599 posts, RR: 72
Reply 132, posted (1 year 4 months 3 weeks 3 days 10 hours ago) and read 16061 times:

Quoting af086 (Reply 131):
Apparently DL and UA will not apply to fly NYC-GIG this time and seems that AA won't increase frequencies on the DFW-GIG route on a year round basis. Unfortunately.

That's not a surprise. There are unused GIG frequencies as is. They could fly these routes tomorrow, but have no interest.



a.
User currently offlineIrishAyes From United States of America, joined Jan 2008, 2158 posts, RR: 15
Reply 133, posted (1 year 4 months 3 weeks 3 days 9 hours ago) and read 15876 times:

Quoting mah4546 (Reply 132):

Quoting af086 (Reply 131):
Apparently DL and UA will not apply to fly NYC-GIG this time and seems that AA won't increase frequencies on the DFW-GIG route on a year round basis. Unfortunately.

That's not a surprise. There are unused GIG frequencies as is. They could fly these routes tomorrow, but have no interest.

I never fully understood what happened with DFWGIG this winter. Was it bumped up to daily, 4x weekly, or none of the above, and for how long?



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User currently offlineyellowtail From United States of America, joined Jun 2005, 6037 posts, RR: 2
Reply 134, posted (1 year 4 months 3 weeks 3 days 9 hours ago) and read 15837 times:

Quoting crAAzy (Reply 118):
Don't forget MH (maybe) and QF - still not great though.

QF? why would anyone go SYD-LAX-GRU when they could go SYD-SCL-GRU



When in doubt, hold on to your altitude. No-one has ever collided with the sky.
User currently offlineC010T3 From Brazil, joined Jul 2006, 3681 posts, RR: 19
Reply 135, posted (1 year 4 months 3 weeks 3 days 9 hours ago) and read 15768 times:

Quoting IrishAyes (Reply 133):
I never fully understood what happened with DFWGIG this winter. Was it bumped up to daily, 4x weekly, or none of the above, and for how long?

AFAIK, it was made daily from December 12th until the end of February. It's back to 3x weekly now.


User currently offlinejayunited From United States of America, joined Jan 2013, 883 posts, RR: 1
Reply 136, posted (1 year 4 months 3 weeks 3 days 7 hours ago) and read 15564 times:

Quoting IrishAyes (Reply 128):
Sometimes, when I arrive at ORD late at night, I like to watch the GRU flight board from the C concourse and, while not always the best indicator (I feel dumb saying this) I've noticed many a time when the departure screen shows a relatively empty J-class cabin on this flight, so it makes me wonder how it performs.

My intentions was not to suggest that UA's ORD-GRU flight goes out full every night every one knows that not the truth. the point I was making was to another comment about why does UA fly ORD-GRU and not AA when AA should be flying ORD-GRU because UA does not need to fly this route.

Our flights load factor fluctuates from one night to the next even during the high season you can have two nights when the flight is over sold and the next 3 nights the load factor will be between 65-85% it all depends on how much connecting traffic UA pushes toward ORD instead of IAH, or IAD or in some cases EWR. So yes there are nights when business class will go out with 10-15 empty seats which wasn't the point I was making.
The point I was making or the question I was asking was if AA starts both LAX and ORD how would that effect their DFW flights because the O&D market between ORD and GRU is extremely small and not enough on its own to fill a 767 or a 777 without daily significant help from connecting passengers from the West Coast and NRT.


User currently offlineLAXintl From United States of America, joined May 2000, 24802 posts, RR: 46
Reply 137, posted (1 year 4 months 3 weeks 3 days 7 hours ago) and read 15541 times:

Did AA not also try a ORD-EZE briefly a few years back? I think it did not even last a year.

Quoting psa1011 (Reply 126):
I'm unclear - the NH LAX-HND flight departs @ 12AM, while the LAX-NRT flight departs @ 1130AM. JL also flies daylight to TYO.
If JL started HND-LAX, it would provide for a nice connection to LAX-GRU on Oneworld. I'm sure UA would love the swap.

You are also forgetting the other side of the equation. The JCAB awarded the Japanese carriers the route rights they have from HND. So its not a simple matter of lets swap, there is also Japanese regulatory stuff.

But anyhow, I dont see ANA dropping HND-LAX. It has higher loads then their daytime NRT flight.



From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
User currently offlinecrAAzy From United States of America, joined Jan 2008, 767 posts, RR: 0
Reply 138, posted (1 year 4 months 3 weeks 3 days 7 hours ago) and read 15480 times:
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Quoting LAXintl (Reply 117):
I do wonder what a LAX-GRU nonstop would do for AA's DFW-GRU. Clearly California is a top feeder market for the DFW flight which is extremely reliant on feed being such a small local market.

Likely keep it to once daily instead of creeping up to 10x weekly at times (or more).

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 124):
US is about useless - PHX is a market already served by AA.

Yes, US is useless but their frequent flyer base and contracts in the west are not.

Quoting yellowtail (Reply 134):
QF? why would anyone go SYD-LAX-GRU when they could go SYD-SCL-GRU

Agreed! But to answer your question - surely you realize those doing milage runs and AOWE tickets would consider the routing  


User currently offlineRafabozzolla From Brazil, joined Apr 2000, 1209 posts, RR: 0
Reply 139, posted (1 year 4 months 3 weeks 3 days 4 hours ago) and read 15259 times:

Quoting commavia (Reply 104):
AA's proposed schedules:

AA215 LAX 1930 GRU 1255+ 777
AA216 GRU 0005 LAX 0635 777

AA261 ORD 2130 GRU 1155+ 777
AA262 GRU 2210 ORD 0500+ 777

Economics aside, I'd LOVE for this to become a reality as California (LAX, SFO and Palm Springs) are my destinations of choice in the USA.

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 117):
I do wonder what a LAX-GRU nonstop would do for AA's DFW-GRU. Clearly California is a top feeder market for the DFW flight which is extremely reliant on feed being such a small local market.
Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 121):
In the end though, if it comes down to choosing between DFW-GRU and LAX-GRU, they will protect DFW-GRU. Right now, as things currently are, DFW-GRU is one of the most profitable routes in AA's entire network. If LAX-GRU starts and (against my predictions) is a success, DFW-GRU will probably hold fast at a daily 777.

If, as stated above, GRU-DFW is a prime connecting point to California, and is such a high yielding route for AA, there MUST be some money to be made on GRU-LAX. Heck, if LAN can make LAX and SFO work, from Lima of all places (a market that is far smaller than GRU and much, much, lower yielding than GRU), relying heavily on Brazil pax, again, don't believe the "common sense" (rather myth) that California-Brazil is a dead market.

Has anyone noticed how high KE's fares are?

Quoting C010T3 (Reply 130):
At LAX, they don't have UA as a competitor, not to mention that it seems that ORD would affect DFW's performance more. AA is trying to gain market share in California's by concentrating demand that is scattered between carriers.

My thoughts are the same.


User currently offlineSCL767 From Chile, joined Feb 2006, 8748 posts, RR: 5
Reply 140, posted (1 year 4 months 3 weeks 3 days 3 hours ago) and read 15175 times:

Quoting Rafabozzolla (Reply 139):
Heck, if LAN can make LAX and SFO work, from Lima of all places (a market that is far smaller than GRU and much, much, lower yielding than GRU), relying heavily on Brazil pax, again

"Lima of all places"? Perú's economy is experiencing robust growth; unlike Brazil. The majority of pax traveling on LA's 13 weekly non-stop flights between LIM and LAX originate from LIM, SCL and EZE. LIM has a size-able Japanese community and many pax transfer between LIM and NRT via LAX. Exports from Chile and Perú to Asia are also a very important component of these services.


User currently offlineLAXintl From United States of America, joined May 2000, 24802 posts, RR: 46
Reply 141, posted (1 year 4 months 3 weeks 3 days 3 hours ago) and read 15089 times:

Quoting Rafabozzolla (Reply 139):
Has anyone noticed how high KE's fares are?

Remember plane goes to Korea, so they sell accordingly.

But overall loads are not that terrific(see below) Also KE dropped its planned idea to increase to 6x weekly.

Here are the released 2012 LF numbers so far.

LAX-GRU
Jan - 78.1
Feb - 79.2
Mar - 58.3
Apr - 65.7
May - 69.0
Jun - 72.3
Jul - 79.7
Aug - 58.6

GRU-LAX
Jan - 71.4
Feb - 63.4
Mar - 64.0
Apr - 69.1
May - 64.5
Jun - 69.9
Jul - 72.4
Aug - 64.1

=



From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
User currently offlinemah4546 From Sweden, joined Jan 2001, 32599 posts, RR: 72
Reply 142, posted (1 year 4 months 3 weeks 3 days 2 hours ago) and read 14957 times:

Applications are technically do tomorrow, but given its a Saturday, should have all been in today. Is AA going to be uncontested? That is shocking.


a.
User currently offlineIrishAyes From United States of America, joined Jan 2008, 2158 posts, RR: 15
Reply 143, posted (1 year 4 months 3 weeks 2 days 23 hours ago) and read 14702 times:

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 137):

Did AA not also try a ORD-EZE briefly a few years back? I think it did not even last a year.

Both AA and UA have tried this and it has failed miserably. GRU is a different market, although I wouldn't say the route will be a slam dunk from the start. It may take some time to mature.



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User currently offlineSCL767 From Chile, joined Feb 2006, 8748 posts, RR: 5
Reply 144, posted (1 year 4 months 3 weeks 2 days 22 hours ago) and read 14569 times:

Quoting IrishAyes (Reply 143):
GRU is a different market, although I wouldn't say the route will be a slam dunk from the start. It may take some time to mature.

While the Brazilian economy is currently growing slowly compared to the past few years, the growth rate is projected to increase during 2014 onwards. AA is proactively planning for the increase in pax traffic from 2014 onwards... Remember, AA plans to launch the route during 2014 and will code-share with LATAM on the route. Also, by that time, GRU will become a oneworld hub. During 2015, Brazil will have OS with the U.S. and it is very likely that AA will apply for ATI with LATAM's affiliate TAM Airlines. IMO, AA can compete with UA on the route; especially given AA's already strong presence at GRU and AA's future with LATAM. It's very important to note that the "new AA" together with LATAM will be a strong alliance between North America and South America in the near-future.


User currently offlineByrdluvs747 From United States of America, joined Jul 2004, 2345 posts, RR: 1
Reply 145, posted (1 year 4 months 3 weeks 2 days 21 hours ago) and read 14565 times: