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AA/US Merger Impact: Hubs (Part 2)  
User currently offlinemoderators From United States of America, joined Apr 2004, 514 posts, RR: 0
Posted (1 year 10 months 2 weeks 2 days 1 hour ago) and read 22881 times:
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This is a continuation thread from part 1 (merger impact: hubs) which can be found here: AA/US Merger Impact: Hubs (Part 1)


Please feel free to continue your discussion here. On behalf of the moderators, please continue to enjoy the forums.


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220 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineSTT757 From United States of America, joined Mar 2000, 16909 posts, RR: 51
Reply 1, posted (1 year 10 months 2 weeks 1 day 23 hours ago) and read 22872 times:

Local business report on WCBS 880 in New York stated that AA plans to grow JFK after their merger with US. Love to know how they're going to do that?


Eastern Air lines flt # 701, EWR-MCO Boeing 757
User currently offlineCubsrule From United States of America, joined May 2004, 23309 posts, RR: 20
Reply 2, posted (1 year 10 months 2 weeks 1 day 18 hours ago) and read 22627 times:

Quoting STT757 (Reply 1):
AA plans to grow JFK after their merger with US. Love to know how they're going to do that?

Fewer ERJs and more international flying, I'd expect.



I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
User currently offlineBigGSFO From United States of America, joined Jun 2005, 2952 posts, RR: 6
Reply 3, posted (1 year 10 months 2 weeks 1 day 18 hours ago) and read 22610 times:

Quoting STT757 (Reply 1):
Love to know how they're going to do that?

Maybe less short haul domestic (shift that to PHL), more transcon and international?


User currently offlinePHX787 From Japan, joined Mar 2012, 7982 posts, RR: 19
Reply 4, posted (1 year 10 months 2 weeks 1 day 18 hours ago) and read 22606 times:

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 2):
Fewer ERJs and more international flying, I'd expect.

That's what I'm thinking too. I see them utilizing some of the 762s on more tatl flights.



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User currently offlineSTT757 From United States of America, joined Mar 2000, 16909 posts, RR: 51
Reply 5, posted (1 year 10 months 2 weeks 1 day 18 hours ago) and read 22594 times:

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 4):

That's what I'm thinking too. I see them utilizing some of the 762s on more tatl flights

Those are going to be retired, soon.



Eastern Air lines flt # 701, EWR-MCO Boeing 757
User currently offlineMAH4546 From Sweden, joined Jan 2001, 33289 posts, RR: 71
Reply 6, posted (1 year 10 months 2 weeks 1 day 16 hours ago) and read 22405 times:

Quoting STT757 (Reply 1):

Local business report on WCBS 880 in New York stated that AA plans to grow JFK after their merger with US. Love to know how they're going to do that.

1) Expand flying outside of peak departure times, where slots are plentiful and not an issue (e.g. slots around noon are easy to grab; noon is prime departure to Asia. I know AA is in fact considering JFKPVG).

2) Trim ERJ flying and replace with long-haul flying. Those once dai.y ERJs to CVG, ORF, BWI, etc. are not necessary now that AA has a hub in PHL.

3) Pre-anticipate that DOT/DOJ will force AA to give up Reagan slots, and arrange another slot swap with JetBlue to acquire, say, a dozen prime departure slots for 12-18 Reagan slots. With an operation still focused on trans-cons, Carribean departures and Florida, the 4-8P primary departure times aren't important for JetBlue, and B6 might be more than willing to shift its JFK departures around in order to gain an expanded footprint at Reagan.



a.
User currently offlineapodino From United States of America, joined Apr 2005, 4317 posts, RR: 6
Reply 7, posted (1 year 10 months 2 weeks 1 day 15 hours ago) and read 22337 times:

I was looking at documentation that US/AA provided on the merger website. One thing I found is there are a few western cities that US serves from PHX that are not served at all by AA. The question is, are these cities still going to be served from PHX post merger, or is AA going to pull out entirely, or shift the service to other hubs? Something to think about.

User currently offlinecommavia From United States of America, joined Apr 2005, 11983 posts, RR: 62
Reply 8, posted (1 year 10 months 2 weeks 1 day 15 hours ago) and read 22255 times:

Quoting STT757 (Reply 1):
Love to know how they're going to do that?

As others have also suggested, my guess is that AA plans to replace peak slots now used by RJs with mainline (primarily transcon and/or longhaul flights). AA already has a strong network at JFK, but I think it could benefit from some strategic additions in key New York O&D markets (both domestic and international) not already served.

AA forces transfers through JFK onto international flights because in many cases AA has little alternative to JFK for handling those connections. Now, with PHL, connections to Europe from places like CVG, BWI, CLE, etc. can be routed over the far larger PHL hub, freeing up JFK slots and capacity to be allocated in a more optimized way for the local O&D market.

Quoting apodino (Reply 7):
I was looking at documentation that US/AA provided on the merger website. One thing I found is there are a few western cities that US serves from PHX that are not served at all by AA. The question is, are these cities still going to be served from PHX post merger, or is AA going to pull out entirely, or shift the service to other hubs? Something to think about.

There are several - around 10, I think - markets in the western U.S. that are served by US through PHX but not AA at all (although many of them are markets AA used to serve within the last decade, such as LGB, OAK, SBP, BOI, BFL, etc.). My guess is that some of them may well transition to either DFW or a DFW/PHX mix, as DFW provides greater connectivity than PHX ever can.


User currently offlineSCQ83 From United States of America, joined Oct 2012, 1166 posts, RR: 0
Reply 9, posted (1 year 10 months 2 weeks 1 day 15 hours ago) and read 22219 times:

Btw I don't know why some people insist in keeping flights to BCN just because it is a "Oneworld hub". Vueling is not a OW partner airline, so BCN is not a OW hub.

Quoting commavia (Reply 8):
AA forces transfers through JFK onto international flights because in many cases AA has little alternative to JFK for handling those connections. Now, with PHL, connections to Europe from places like CVG, BWI, CLE, etc. can be routed over the far larger PHL hub, freeing up JFK slots and capacity to be allocated in a more optimized way for the local O&D market.

This has been discussed to extenuation in the previous thread. The real fact is that most carriers world wide prefer to use an airport with a huge O&D base (in this case NYC VS Philadelphia) and transfer people there... more O&D makes more routes viable... specially from Europe from where many secondary cities would only make viable a flight to New York (largest O&D in the US by far to most of those destinations) and good connectivity opportunities. That is what BA does in overcrowded Heathrow (why don't they split it between LHR and BHX for instance) or AF in CDG. Sure both BA and AF use LGW and ORY, but both London and Paris play in a very different league (comparable only to New York) and both airports serve roughly the same O&D market (same as DL does from JFK and LGA).

I feel that some people here might give the impression that transiting through an airport in a smaller city with less O&D would be more convenient. Particularly in PHL I don't think it is the case... the airport is not bad but either amazing (I prefer AA's terminal at JFK for transiting) and it shares the same crowded airspace and likely the same issues as JFK if there is a windstorm, for instance.

However for some reason many ppl insist here that "splitting" O&D with JFK and transfer with PHL makes sense. We will see.

[Edited 2013-02-16 12:09:02]

User currently offlineCubsrule From United States of America, joined May 2004, 23309 posts, RR: 20
Reply 10, posted (1 year 10 months 2 weeks 1 day 15 hours ago) and read 22161 times:

Quoting SCQ83 (Reply 9):
The real fact is that most carriers world wide prefer to use an airport with a huge O&D base (in this case NYC VS Philadelphia) and transfer people there... more O&D makes more routes viable... specially from Europe from where many secondary cities would only make viable a flight to New York (largest O&D in the US by far to most of those destinations) and good connectivity opportunities.

That may be true in Europe, as you posit, but how do we explain the relative sizes of ATL versus JFK or SFO versus LAX? In each case, the hub in the more "world class" city is significantly smaller.

[Edited 2013-02-16 12:26:58]


I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
User currently offlinecommavia From United States of America, joined Apr 2005, 11983 posts, RR: 62
Reply 11, posted (1 year 10 months 2 weeks 1 day 14 hours ago) and read 22131 times:

Quoting SCQ83 (Reply 9):
Btw I don't know why some people insist in keeping flights to BCN just because it is a "Oneworld hub". Vueling is not a OW partner airline, so BCN is not a OW hub.

True - BCN is not a oneworld hub, but it is a market where oneworld has a relatively strong market penetration given the local presence of Iberia, and Vueling, which is a partner in Iberia's frequent flyer program.

Quoting SCQ83 (Reply 9):
The real fact is that most carriers world wide prefer to use an airport with a huge O&D base (in this case NYC VS Philadelphia) and transfer people there... more O&D makes more routes viable

True - most carriers would prefer that. But the reality in the northeastern U.S. is that there is only one hub that can effectively combing both a huge O&D base and also be a huge connecting hub catering to all types of connecting flows - domestic and international, longhaul and shorthaul, throughout the day. That hub is EWR, and that hub is obviously taken. Given that, PHL is the only other hub in the reason capable of even coming close.

JFK and LGA are both limited by the fact that while they obviously both cater to a massive local market, they also compete with each other - and EWR - and the overall NYC market is now highly competitive, with (soon) four airlines each having 15-20%+ of the market share. PHL, while a smaller O&D market, true, is still a very large O&D market by national standards, and yet it competes with no other major connecting hub in the same metro area, and it's handily dominated by the hub airline. Given that, it's a great "silver medal" as hubs go in the northeast.

However, all that being said, AA is now in the strong position of being able to enjoy - to some extent - the best (or at least the "better") of both worlds: AA will continue to maintain a huge local presence in the New York market, with ~300 daily flights to dozens of cities catering (primarily) to the local O&D demand, while also having a huge, 400+ flight hub just down I-95 to handle not only the PHL market's O&D (relatively smaller than NYC's), but also connections. That is a lot of network breadth and depth in both markets, and the two should compliment each other well.

Quoting SCQ83 (Reply 9):
I feel that some people here might give the impression that transiting through an airport in a smaller city with less O&D would be more convenient. Particularly in PHL I don't think it is the case... the airport is not bad but either amazing (I prefer AA's terminal at JFK for transiting) and it shares the same crowded airspace and likely the same issues as JFK if there is a windstorm, for instance.

No question. AA's JFK terminal is overall vastly superior to the PHL terminal facilities, but PHL is at least functional. It's overcrowded, outdated, and in need of investment. But, then again, that could describe part or all of many airport terminals in the northeast.

[Edited 2013-02-16 12:26:34]

User currently offlineCubsrule From United States of America, joined May 2004, 23309 posts, RR: 20
Reply 12, posted (1 year 10 months 2 weeks 1 day 14 hours ago) and read 22129 times:

Quoting commavia (Reply 11):
No question. AA's JFK terminal is overall vastly superior to the PHL terminal facilities, but PHL is at least functional. It's overcrowded, outdated, and in need of investment. But, then again, that could describe part or all of many airport terminals in the northeast.

PHL has a fair amount of cosmetic and functional work done or planned, including a people mover that would make connections work a whole lot better. This recent press release has a somewhat complete list.



I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
User currently offlineFlighty From United States of America, joined Apr 2007, 8777 posts, RR: 3
Reply 13, posted (1 year 10 months 2 weeks 1 day 14 hours ago) and read 22098 times:

I am not sure how profitable AA growth at JFK would be. It is definitely attractive looking on a map. But JFK is competitive. AA apparently has a good facility at JFK. But getting a high RASM at JFK isn't just trivially easy.

User currently offlineSCQ83 From United States of America, joined Oct 2012, 1166 posts, RR: 0
Reply 14, posted (1 year 10 months 2 weeks 1 day 14 hours ago) and read 22029 times:

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 10):
That may be true in Europe, as you posit, but how do we explain the relative sizes of ATL versus JFK or SFO versus LAX? In each case, the hub in the more "world class" city is significantly smaller.

You are right... Europe is different to the US in many senses. I am not talking only about "world cities" but the necessity of tapping any market. My comment about "world cities" was mostly regarding the fact that for AF, BA or DL, keeping two hubs in the same city (when they are such major economic and tourism centers) probably makes more sense than for AA keeping both JFK and PHL... two nearby distinctive markets.

ATL's success is due to different factors as we all know:

- Location, no other major or medium airport in many many miles away (not the case for PHL). And certainly DL has not another hub 150 miles away  ... and don't forget IAD is not far either from PHL.
- Convenience and expansion... sure ATL is not "nice" or state of the art but it is a very efficient machine to transfer (the airport itself and the paralel runways system). Also, the airspace is not crowded. Not the case for PHL either.
- Good weather. Not the case for PHL.
- Very good location to transfer from Europe to Florida, Texas, West Coast... not the case for PHL (AND it doesn't have any geographic advantage to NYC). Even if as some ppl say here, PHL can serve a bunch of secondary markets that probably NYC can't... is it worth to keep an intercontinental hub just for the sake of 8 or 10 PVD and the likes? BA concentrated operations in London (I know that BA is the dominant player in London, not the case for AA in NYC) so some UK markets like MAN or BHX have been more and more "lost" to foreign carriers... but would it be worth for them to have kept hubs in those places just to get more share of those markets? Probably not.

On top of that, whether PHL can still be a major market, current economy, demographics (and their prospects) are really grim and I assume (this has been pointed in this thread) yields are not really that high. Again, just look at how little to none interest Philadelphia Airport gets from foreign carriers and then compare it to similar +- metro areas like Boston, Miami, DC, San Francisco, Dallas... it is like night and day. I would see a point to keep PHL even if it is so close to NYC if Philadelphia would be a kind of booming powerhouse with high yields and economic growth, like San Jose or Houston, but this is certainly not the case.


User currently offlineLAXdude1023 From India, joined Sep 2006, 7823 posts, RR: 25
Reply 15, posted (1 year 10 months 2 weeks 1 day 14 hours ago) and read 22019 times:

Quoting SCQ83 (Reply 9):

True the discussion over PHL has been had at length in the previous thread. However, the arguement clearly favors a significan usage of the PHL airport even if a few transatlantic destinations shift to JFK. That has been supported by data whereas the arguement for shutting down PHL is predominantly anecdotal and rhetorical.

Would the combined airline prefer at JFK super hub to a PHL one? I'm sure they would. Can they create JFK into a hub that serves the same function as PHL as a domestic and international connector serving all cities big and small on the east coast and Eastern Midwest? Absolutely not. AA has neither the gates or slots at JFK to create that. Unless the new AA is prepared to give those markets to DL and UA, the need PHL and won't be dumb enough to shut it down. Not to mention the PHL transatlantic market is only small compared to NYC and Boston. When you compare it with other markets across the US, it's quite sizable.



Stewed...Lewd...Crude...Irreverent...Belligerent
User currently offlinePHX787 From Japan, joined Mar 2012, 7982 posts, RR: 19
Reply 16, posted (1 year 10 months 2 weeks 1 day 14 hours ago) and read 21993 times:

Quoting STT757 (Reply 5):
Those are going to be retired, soon.

True, but I wonder what they're going to use TATL



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User currently offlineHPRamper From United States of America, joined May 2005, 4154 posts, RR: 8
Reply 17, posted (1 year 10 months 2 weeks 1 day 14 hours ago) and read 21988 times:

Quoting Flighty (Reply 13):
I am not sure how profitable AA growth at JFK would be. It is definitely attractive looking on a map. But JFK is competitive. AA apparently has a good facility at JFK. But getting a high RASM at JFK isn't just trivially easy.

It might get better once more small-spoke routes are cut in favor of either transcontinental or high-revenue transcon flights.

Quoting SCQ83 (Reply 14):
Even if as some ppl say here, PHL can serve a bunch of secondary markets that probably NYC can't... is it worth to keep an intercontinental hub just for the sake of 8 or 10 PVD and the likes?

This is basically arguing against the hub system itself in favor of high volume P2P.


User currently offlineCubsrule From United States of America, joined May 2004, 23309 posts, RR: 20
Reply 18, posted (1 year 10 months 2 weeks 1 day 13 hours ago) and read 21961 times:

Quoting SCQ83 (Reply 14):
Location, no other major or medium airport in many many miles away (not the case for PHL). And certainly DL has not another hub 150 miles away ... and don't forget IAD is not far either from PHL.

The population density is much higher in the northeast, though. There aren't other major airports near ATL because there aren't other major cities near Atlanta. The next closest MSAs over, say, 1.5 million are Nashville and Charlotte, and those are about 250 miles away.

Quoting SCQ83 (Reply 14):
ery good location to transfer from Europe to Florida, Texas, West Coast... not the case for PHL (AND it doesn't have any geographic advantage to NYC

Europe-Flords/Texas/West Coast are all shorter via PHL than via ATL.

Quoting SCQ83 (Reply 14):
On top of that, whether PHL can still be a major market, current economy, demographics (and their prospects) are really grim

Philadelphia is surely a more mature market than, say, Atlanta or Houston, but which economic fundamentals are poor?



I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
User currently offlineusairways85 From United States of America, joined Nov 2001, 3475 posts, RR: 7
Reply 19, posted (1 year 10 months 2 weeks 1 day 12 hours ago) and read 21784 times:

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 6):
1) Expand flying outside of peak departure times, where slots are plentiful and not an issue (e.g. slots around noon are easy to grab; noon is prime departure to Asia. I know AA is in fact considering JFKPVG).

I'm sure AA will consider this option but this still doesn't create an all day 400+ flts hub

Quoting SCQ83 (Reply 9):
However for some reason many ppl insist here that "splitting" O&D with JFK and transfer with PHL makes sense. We will see.

The comment below addresses this perfectly. If it it were a perfect world for AA/US they would certainly choose JFK over PHL for a Northeast mega hub (400+ flts). Problem is that it's not a perfect world and the best they can do is what MAH suggested and optimize JFK and add flts where they can.

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 15):

Would the combined airline prefer at JFK super hub to a PHL one? I'm sure they would. Can they create JFK into a hub that serves the same function as PHL as a domestic and international connector serving all cities big and small on the east coast and Eastern Midwest? Absolutely not. AA has neither the gates or slots at JFK to create that.


User currently offlineSCQ83 From United States of America, joined Oct 2012, 1166 posts, RR: 0
Reply 20, posted (1 year 10 months 2 weeks 1 day 11 hours ago) and read 21697 times:

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 15):
True the discussion over PHL has been had at length in the previous thread. However, the arguement clearly favors a significan usage of the PHL airport even if a few transatlantic destinations shift to JFK. That has been supported by data whereas the arguement for shutting down PHL is predominantly anecdotal and rhetorical.

And I haven't said either that PHL would be closed... my point is that AA would carry whatever they can from PHL to JFK.

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 15):
Would the combined airline prefer at JFK super hub to a PHL one? I'm sure they would.

So we basically agree again... PHL is not that important market... if AA at JFK would be able to expand operations as pleased... PHL could be shut down or largely minimized. If PHL would be such relevant market, AA would not do that even if they could grow at JFK as they want.


User currently offlinetommy767 From United States of America, joined Aug 2003, 6936 posts, RR: 9
Reply 21, posted (1 year 10 months 2 weeks 1 day 11 hours ago) and read 21674 times:

Would be nice to see some former AE routes from JFK flown on US 319/320 metal: JFK-ALB/BTV/PWM/SYR/BUF/MHT etc.


"KEEP CLIMBING" -- DELTA
User currently offlineblueman87 From United States of America, joined Aug 2009, 535 posts, RR: 0
Reply 22, posted (1 year 10 months 2 weeks 1 day 11 hours ago) and read 21650 times:

Quoting STT757 (Reply 1):

Local business report on WCBS 880 in New York stated that AA plans to grow JFK after their merger with US. Love to know how they're going to do that?

LEave the short Hual at LGA and more International at JFK shift the slots they have



B6 T5 JFK DL T2/3 JFK
User currently offlineusairways85 From United States of America, joined Nov 2001, 3475 posts, RR: 7
Reply 23, posted (1 year 10 months 2 weeks 1 day 11 hours ago) and read 21616 times:

Quoting SCQ83 (Reply 20):
So we basically agree again... PHL is not that important market... if AA at JFK would be able to expand operations as pleased... PHL could be shut down or largely minimized. If PHL would be such relevant market, AA would not do that even if they could grow at JFK as they want.

Well in all defense I think you'd be hard pressed to find a major carrier (past or present) that would not bite at the opportunity to turn JFK, or EWR for that matter, into a 400+ hub with connections to the US, Europe, South America, and Asia. I don't think that means PHL is not relevant.


User currently offlineLAXdude1023 From India, joined Sep 2006, 7823 posts, RR: 25
Reply 24, posted (1 year 10 months 2 weeks 1 day 10 hours ago) and read 21508 times:

Quoting SCQ83 (Reply 20):
So we basically agree again... PHL is not that important market... if AA at JFK would be able to expand operations as pleased... PHL could be shut down or largely minimized. If PHL would be such relevant market, AA would not do that even if they could grow at JFK as they want.

There is not one market in the US that is more important as NYC. Comparing it to any city in the US is not apples to apples.



Stewed...Lewd...Crude...Irreverent...Belligerent
25 AA767LOVER : PHL's ability to expand is quite limited given their current location. However, if they were to move deeper into the suburbs such as a IAD case, would
26 nutsaboutplanes : US gets more A330's this year and next to replace most if not all remaining 762's and AA has a lot of 787's on order. This combined with some schedul
27 usairways85 : Are you referencing PHL's physical ability to expand? Essentially they can't. The options are (20+ year plan): -put a new runway partially in the riv
28 CIDFlyer : Im hoping we could see some CLT flights into the heartland, like what DL has from ATL. Places like PIA, CMI, CID, MSN, GRR etc.
29 Post contains images uncgso : wonder what chance GSO has of seeing mainline jets back... maybe lower the 9+ flights a day to CLT and upgrade DFW to mainline ... or how about relaun
30 apodino : I am not sure what you are saying here. D and E are used by DL, UA, and WN primarily and this is still going to be true post merger. American is curr
31 Cubsrule : That comparison is somewhat skewed because average aircraft size is quite a bit higher at MIA.
32 FlyCaledonian : It's also interesting the impact the AA/BA ATI will have on the hubs as I expect that US will leave Star and join oneworld (and the AA/BA ATI) before
33 SCQ83 : I wonder if LH will keep the CLT-MUC (and US the CLT-FRA) once there is no Star feed at the US end. Maybe it will make more sense for LH to cancel MU
34 PHX787 : The BA744 is always an interesting flight here on our end. A few years back someone was speculating that they would send the A380 here, which we know
35 usairways85 : One thing though is with the ATI it may not necessarily make sense for AA/US and BA to each operate 1 flt. I think CLT may be a candidate for AA/US t
36 FlyCaledonian : It's hard to say. I think BA could come in with a daily flight so that it's frequent fliers who want to fly on BA can do so. I know the ATI between A
37 FreshSide3 : I can see a GRR-PHL trip, though, especially with the AMS trip out of PHL. It would be a nice connection. Lots of people from GRR go to the Netherlan
38 Post contains links capitalflyer : Per American "New American" website, no hubs are closing Maintaining all hubs* currently served by both airlines, bringing you more travel options thr
39 Post contains links EricR : Per American "New American" website, no hubs are closing. DL said the same thing when going through their merger with NW. It is all PR fodder to get t
40 flyby519 : Any thoughts on AA/US re-hubbing BOS? Or will Parker continue the cozy relationship with B6?
41 RWA380 : I would expect that we see some domestic hub to hub flying, especially if both hubs have International services. Routes like JFK-PHL may see some 777'
42 gigneil : Its hundreds of miles - its not like people in the catchment area think about one vs the other. They don't fly the AA 762s internationally anyway. NS
43 Flighty : Well, that's less than a hundred miles. US just started the route in 2012 IIRC with E-jets. That's about right. Costs too much to put widebodies on s
44 Markam : Very interesting thread, two sets of questions come to mind: - I agree with many that given the current availability of slots at JFK, the new AA will
45 Post contains images PHLBOS : The main reason why WN chose to come to PHL was because US (pre-HP merger) was in Chapter 11 and was heading for Chapter 7. Given those conditions, W
46 mia305 : With the new flights AA added last year and the new ones this year Mia will continue to grow. Especially with more 773 comming into the fleet. With th
47 Maverick623 : Not a chance. Way too short of a route for a large airplane. I doubt you'll see LAX stealing any PHX routes... their operating costs are ridiculous.
48 HPRamper : PHL is an incredibly important market. You don't just dehub the number 6 (5 by some measurements) metro area in the country for, pardon the expressio
49 mia305 : Thats what I meant to say thanx for correcting me HPRamper. Phx will be a strong focus city. But as I mentioned above Mia will continue to grow
50 PHLBOS : Apples & oranges comparison. The main issue regarding the JFK & PHL hubs is their relatively close proximity to each other. JFK & ATL muc
51 Post contains images Markam : Well, that was my question, whether an after-merger take-over of JetBlue would have any chances of being approved by the DOJ, if it overcame all the
52 PHX787 : Not to mention it's completely out of the way for connections. neeeeedle on the record, folks.
53 southwest737500 : I fully believe BA will come to CLT, 777 in the summer and 763 in the winter. I also think LH will stay they have alot of business contracts in the ar
54 iFlyLOTs : My view on PHX is that what will happen here is what happened at SJU with AA a few years ago. I think it'll still be a large regional hub and then all
55 commavia : Well that's only half the equation, though. On the other side of cost is revenue. LAX may have higher cost per enplanement (although I doubt LAX is a
56 mia305 : There's no way Phx will shrink the way Sju has. Right now Sju has 16 daily flights, no way Phx will be like that. As I mentioned in the above post it
57 PHLBOS : You missed my later quote in the same reply, reposted below: Again, the majority of the recent airline mergers are by and large consolidation driven
58 EaglePower83 : I just can't possibly see AA reducing PHL hub status. They need some kind of northeast hub since they don't use NYC, and DCA is too crowded. We need s
59 strfyr51 : I think you guys are overreaching, PHL can take as many trans cons for TATL as American can feed trough it. Because the OD market pf PHL is smaller t
60 commavia : And I simply do not agree with any such hard and fast rules. Every situation is different. So, for example, I agree that no airline could support two
61 N737AA : Mainline, if you include Eagle its around 45. But that is changing in April when the Eagle operation ceases. N737AA
62 KD5MDK : The US 762s do though and need to be replaced. It's interesting to see with BOS-LHR going all BA you would think there would need to be a correspondi
63 commavia : I suspect AA 763s (and maybe some international-configured 757s) will do the trick perfectly. Not sure how much smaller AA's piece of the pie will be
64 usairways85 : Both the US and AA 762s will be rapidly retired. AA has plans to replace the 762s with the transcon A321s. Additionally with the extra AA widebodies
65 KD5MDK : Won't the 5 A332s for this year arrive faster than the merger, more or less? I would expect that to be the first aircraft that replaces the US 762s, j
66 miaintl : MIA is going to be hurt bad by this merger. MIA will loose most of its Latin American traffic to CLT. CLT will basically become what MIA is today with
67 AeroWesty : LOL, what? I'd like to hear your business case for this happening while I go get the popcorn.
68 iFlyLOTs : As would I, MIA is a cash cow for AA, and its the best hub for Latin America.
69 ripcordd : I will have what you are smoking....Nothing can replace MIA ask DL at ATL they have a large operation but not nearly as large as MIA all due to the l
70 chepos : MIA is going to be hurt bad by this merger. MIA will loose most of its Latin American traffic to CLT. CLT will basically become what MIA is today wit
71 miaskies : Yet another ridiculous statement by this member, a.net should really monitor membership and leave it to the 21 and over set. MIA will be hurt by the
72 LAXintl : Aviation Daily Published an airline profile of AA. Some interesting charts. Top Airports in revenue. 1. DFW 2. MIA 3. ORD 4. JFK 5. LAX 6. LGA 7. LHR
73 EricR : LAS is on the list twice (10 & 13).
74 AeroWesty : They did a double-down.
75 LAXintl : Yes typo. Going cross eyed. Is corrected list. I skipped our Argentine friends by accident. 1. DFW 2. MIA 3. ORD 4. JFK 5. LAX 6. LGA 7. LHR 8. BOS 9.
76 EricR : It will be interesting to see whether AA brings back N/S service between SFO-BOS after the merger. Both are strong revenue markets for AA and AA will
77 LAXintl : Even with the cutbacks in Boston, I think it gets a bit of a artificial boost thanks to the London flight and longer distance flights generating highe
78 ripcordd : MIA does more passengers than ORD does on a daily basis which is why its #2
79 commavia : I have long been of the opinion that BOS-SFO is the single biggest gaping "point-to-point" gap in the AA network. AA is reasonably strong (as non-hub
80 GSPSPOT : I know that AA has it's own flights to South America, but wondering why LAN doesn't serve DFW?
81 realsim : With a new cost structure and a merger, the new AA will be able to face new challenges, and this means that if they want to become stronger where they
82 UA787DEN : Unserved route to a OW hub, from a major city. Not a bad idea. Hmm. If they keep price down, IAH or ATL could work. Both of those are flying straight
83 KD5MDK : Why fly DCA-IAH when you can fly DCA-HOU? I realize the airports are pretty far apart, but flying into IAH is a really tough proposition. I think serv
84 mia305 : Mia isn't going any where for AA. As mentioned before its a cash cow. Mia has made more money for AA than any of its other hubs. AA has has spent mone
85 Byrdluvs747 : While I do like the idea of intl flights from IAD (MAD & GRU have the best chance), I think AA needs to aggressively focus on LAX, and JFK before
86 BigGSFO : IMO it was a big mistake they exited this market - but then we could say that about many markets under the old AA regime. From Calif to Boston, the l
87 ckfred : Except DL had been shrinking CVG long before the merger, and NW was doing the same with MEM before the merger. Yes, the statement was PR fodder. But,
88 Cubsrule : How much did MEM shrink between 2005 and 2009? Of that shrinkage, how much was attributable to Avro and DC-9 retirement?
89 EricR : But I do not think they would not have made nearly the same amount of cuts had they not merged. For example, do you think DL would have reduced CVG t
90 seatback : I've mentioned this before in other threads. With the new large AA customer base in the DC area, I would expect to see some international growth. Alt
91 PHX787 : The only reason we were being shrink a bit was because of the economy driving demand to the ground over here. Now that things are picking up business
92 Post contains images PHLBOS : IIRC, US shrank and dropped its LAS hub (courtesy of the 2005 merger w/HP) a few years ago.
93 ckfred : True, but then, EWR and IAD are fairly close, and United doesn't seem to be in any hurry to close either one of those. Considering that JFK still has
94 wn676 : Other way around. LAS became a spoke at the end of 2011, long after PIT was dehubbed.
95 PSA727 : JFK will see probably 15-20 more departures than what exists today. Most of those will be international and domestic long-haul. You will see significa
96 bobloblaw : There are a few more US destinations in the west not served by ORD or DFW. GEG and BOI. I can't see PHX being reduced to nothing other than existing
97 EricR : There are a few more US destinations in the west not served by ORD or DFW. GEG and BOI.. There are a total of 13 destinations. Below is the list. The
98 PHXFlyer16 : Yet another clueless comment. You cannot compare CVG and MEM to PHX. The PHX metro area added 140,000 people in the last two years and climbed from t
99 Post contains images wnflyguy : I think PHX and CLT will fill a big pinch with this merger. AA has 190 OLD Mad Dogs it's ready to shed to same money. I can see the new management shi
100 ckfred : I was talking to a friend of mine who flies for AA. He thinks that PHX will have to stay around. AA's terminal at LAX isn't that big, and doesn't hav
101 Austwin : I'm starting to laugh at the dehub Phx posts. All the facts appear to be ignored in place of arguing it will be so because LA and DFW are bigger. Let'
102 mah4546 : Closed LAS, too, and PHX has lost 22 destinations and ~60 daily flights.
103 nomorerjs : I think ORD will do well with E's and 319's coming on board.
104 PSA727 : Do MEM and CVG have a strong WN presence there? But look at what those two hubs have become in the new DL: breeding grounds for regional jets.
105 PSA727 : US is moving to T3 at LAX. AA is gaining 4 gates at TBIT. So the new AA will have gates at T4, TBIT, T3, and the "eagle's nest". Not to mention the A
106 Post contains links Byrdluvs747 : Unless something has changed, I think you are incorrect about AA in T3. Should AA-US Merge: Consolidation Or Split Ops @ LAX? (by Byrdluvs747 Apr 3 2
107 Post contains links aaway : Something has changed... Terminal Renovations: The proposed Lease requires Southwest to make renovations in Terminal 1 as outlined in Schedule 1, Att
108 Post contains links LAXintl : More details here also: Southwest To Take Over LAX T-1; US Air Moves (by LAXintl Jan 15 2013 in Civil Aviation) =
109 LDVAviation : Perhaps, aaway can answer these questions: Is Qantas planning to move all of its T4 flights to the new TBIT? (I think they we will be the ones runnin
110 commavia : I wouldn't read too much into that - PHX was mentioned my name merely because it's losing the HQ, which is a rather symbolic loss. If/when several ke
111 Post contains links Byrdluvs747 : Wow, I can't believe I missed that. Thats been well discussed here. Should AA-US Merge: Consolidation Or Split Ops @ LAX? (by Byrdluvs747 Apr 3 2012
112 PHX787 : Holy crap every week a new breed of anti-PHX comments sprouts, with people ignoring the big picture: PHX is a huge draw from all over the region. The
113 Post contains images commavia : Nobody ever debated that lots of people want to fly into or out of Phoenix. The problem is the fare said people are paying, and the operating costs o
114 Cubsrule : How many legacy flights were added at STL after AA dehubbed it? How many legacy flights have been added at PIT in the past 10 years? How many legacy
115 LDVAviation : Yes. But, with all due respect, I was looking for a reply from aaway. Let's just say. He hears things. He knows things. I was wondering what his take
116 PHX787 : I can vouch for this, US with service to DCA, AC to YYZ, and UA adding to existing DEN and increasing capacity to ORD. F9 arriving, and other airline
117 AeroWesty : Right now, US files 6x/day nonstop in the PDX-PHX market. In addition, AS flies 2x/day and WN flies 3x/day. In the merged AA/US network, which cities
118 flyguy89 : Yes, but at what yield? That is the important question here. It doesn't simply serve "that" market, it's a hub that does probably 90% of what PHX doe
119 steeler83 : For as big as it is, it's also getting even larger over the years. Not to mention, but what about the economy in Phoenix? Isn't it pretty strong? (i.
120 Post contains images wnflyguy : WN,US and LAWA over the last 5 years have had many proposals on were to relocate US airways. I think US finally agreed to move to terminal 3 only bec
121 KD5MDK : I'm not clear on the reaction to the list of airports only served by PHX now. Is the idea that those markets are going to be completely abandoned, or
122 PSA727 : PHX will have to prove itself in the new airline. And do a god job of doing so. Just about every city pair served by US via PHX can be done in the new
123 PSA727 : Gate space at LAX is a treasured commodity. I doubt that the new airline would abandon those T3 gates so easily. That would be throwing away potentia
124 Byrdluvs747 : Given AA's rich history of strategic blunders, I would seriously hope that the new AA will take advantage of any additional gates whether by operatin
125 SCL767 : What a ridiculous assumption! AA plans to continue increasing flights to Latin America from the MIA hub. Plus, AA will code-share with LATAM Airlines
126 Byrdluvs747 : Launching IAD to OW hubs would be the safest way to build a presence in DC. Even if AA is the number two carrier, it would add immense value to the a
127 EricR : US is moving to T3 at LAX. AA is gaining 4 gates at TBIT. So the new AA will have gates at T4, TBIT, T3, and the "eagle's nest". Not to mention the AS
128 MIflyer12 : So, DL pulls about 400 daily flights out of CVG over ten years and you cite what, ten flights added by other carriers? Cubsrule's point is valid: whe
129 nwcoflyer : You really think US would drop PHL to 3 daily?? Even CLT for that matter? I hardly believe that US will let PHX go all RJ... If PHX goes all RJ they
130 PHX787 : When other carriers try they are spooked out of the market by DL's predatory pricing, which for whatever reason some people think doesn't deserve an
131 bobloblaw : Wont happen. Even if AA cloesd PHX completely, they would still dominate the LAX-PHX market due to residual loyalty in PHX. Does AA fly RJs only on S
132 Cubsrule : Hardly. PHX took a bath in the real estate bust. If we look at unemployment and compare to some of the other cities being discussed here, PHX is righ
133 steeler83 : Oh, right. Sorry, I forgot about how hard some of those rust belt cities were hit by the recession and the housing market collapse. With all due resp
134 Cubsrule : Pittsburgh and Cincinnati both have fairly strong economies that are probably more diverse than ever before. The narrative that the dehubbings had so
135 Maverick623 : DFW could pick up flights, but good luck finding gate space at LAX or more slots at ORD, which has GDPs more often than not. Besides, LAX probably ha
136 LDVAviation : A number of factors to consider: (1) LAWA plans to redevelop T3. That might mean a complete rebuild, resulting in fewer gates I think. Fewer gates an
137 capitalflyer : Comparing IAD to PHL is a bit apples to oranges given their locations. PHL is totally built out with no room for expansion without relocating I-95 (no
138 FlyPNS1 : ORD isn't slot controlled and really isn't that congested anymore.
139 usairways85 : I'd actually argue that comparing IAD to PHL is apples to oranges because IAD largely benefits as the International gateway to the US capital with a
140 Byrdluvs747 : Well if LAWA does cause any disruptions, there will have to be compensation to AA. Holding on to any T3 gates would constitute an investment, especia
141 ckfred : I would add that several mainline gates have had their jet bridges removed, such as K-15, and there is some slack in how many flights are run through
142 LDVAviation : Under the original agreement, that was actually AA's plan, to use the 4 TBIT gates for domestic flights. Back then, LAWA approved of that plan. Of co
143 Post contains images aaway : We're kinda delving into the minutiae of LAX here . Actually there is a domestic claim device in the old section 'A' of the arrivals level. Non-carou
144 Post contains images LAXintl : I think many here are over engineering things. At the end of the day rather small operation US Airways (mere 15 departures tomorrow for example) will
145 aaway : Agree, particularly with the observation of the operation likely mirroring that of UA's at SFO.
146 Byrdluvs747 : Yes, but we were also discussing further domestic expansion, and you can only cram so many flights into T4.
147 LAXdude1023 : Its dead in the water. The reason other carriers arent rushing to CVG to fill the void is because there is no void to fill. CVG is not a very large m
148 PSA727 : What is the need for OAK-PHX to continue? Or GEG/BOI-PHX for that matter? Are they that high-fare yielding routes? PHX as a hub has little cachement.
149 Post contains images flyguy89 : They weren't spooked by any predatory pricing by DL, it was the fact that everyone was flying DL instead of the low-fare carrier in the past. We can
150 LDVAviation : Yup, I can see that going away. As with the T6 and T5 FIS, it was never staffed at all times to be a passenger-friendly facility. As to the tunnel, t
151 HPRamper : OAK could probably work from DFW - it's not a small market in the same way SBA or FLG are and it would be good to not cede the Bay Area to Star. BUR
152 Post contains links EricR : An interesting twist developed yesterday during AA/US's Senate hearing on the merger. CEO Doug Parker revealed for the first time that the carrier now
153 Post contains images point2point : It looks like a good plan on paper for Parker and the new AA/US. I just have to wonder how good of a plan on paper it is to all of the other domestic
154 LAXintl : Well airlines like JetBlue and Southwest are now on the record saying they believe AA/US must divest DCA slots. Also a couple consumer groups shared t
155 HPRamper : I think US started viewing DCA as a hub with the acquisition of the DL slots. DL did the same thing with LGA if I'm not mistaken. It's interesting th
156 Post contains links Austwin : The Phoenix newspaper, The Arizona Republic, has an article on the meeting with details of how the they see using the Phoenix hub after the merger in
157 HPRamper : “The Phoenix hub is a critical piece of US Airways’ profitability and will be a critical piece of American’s profitability. We will be able to p
158 AeroWesty : Neither Parker or Horton promised to maintain the current level of service—a combined frequency of 288 flights per day—nor promised international
159 Austwin : Parker and Horton had this to say at the hearing: “We gave the people of Arizona more opportunities to fly more places,” he said. “The Phoenix h
160 Flighty : The PHX-Hawaii flights serve a purpose and will stay IMO. I'm not up on the yields in that market, but it is one of the few things PHX does better th
161 AeroWesty : Please justify how AA will need to continue to fly 6x/day between PDX and PHX in the post-merger era. PHX is an inconvenient transfer point for most
162 nutsaboutplanes : This is correct. DCA is now included in all internal comparisons with CLT, PHL and PHX.
163 usairways85 : This is purely PR jargon. Qantas is a long shot and Finnair is an exponentially longer shot.
164 sonomaflyer : PHX can be a logical transfer point from the west coast to Mexican destinations, certainly places such as SJD, ACA, MZL etc on the Mexican Riviera. B
165 HPRamper : Bingo. Even though this is just an example, I could see PDX-PHX dropping to 3x easily. If AA adds a single PDX-LAX, I think the number could easily d
166 EricR : “Growth is something in the future that is harder to predict,” he said. “Whatever opportunities exist in Phoenix today are even greater (with a
167 Post contains images commavia : I think the specific terminology of "hub" or "focus city" is relatively unimportant in the scheme of things - especially to politicians on CSPAN who
168 PHXFlyer16 : I agree words were chosen carefully, but don't underestimate the importance of a PHX hub. Phoenix just climbed to number 13 on the list of largest US
169 EricR : Connecting in LAX or DFW would not be a viable option to get me to SJC, LAS, RNO, PDX, SFO, Etc... You get the point.. Why wouldn't LAX work? Each of
170 PHXFlyer16 : For the same reason's UA and DL have DEN and SLC. Because AA can't cram 300 daily flights into LAX. Premium space means premium flights, trans-pacifi
171 Flighty : They will do whatever makes money. What they say has no meaning at all I don't think they need ~18 flights to RDU, for example. It's laughable for th
172 commavia : I don't believe I am underestimating it. My believe is that the hub is in a bad location for all but a very narrow set of connecting traffic flows, a
173 PHXFlyer16 : Note that I said "lagacy carrier." Here is what you are missing... In order to compete with DL and UA, you must have a comparable network. I understa
174 commavia : And here is what I believe you're missing: PHX does not give AA a "comparable" network with DL or UA anyway, and it certainly is not an "intra-west"
175 PHXFlyer16 : Spare me. No use debating with someone who doesn't understand the region. There are many W/E flows today because it is the only hub for US west of the
176 AeroWesty : From PDX, there are few population centers in the west and midwest which are better served via PHX than on a nonstop or via SLC, DEN, MSP, ORD, DFW a
177 flyguy89 : Then I guess it's no use debating someone who's deluding themselves that PHX is actually an inter-west or Mountain West hub on par with DEN and SLC.
178 osubuckeyes : Here is my 2 cents. To think that PHX will be the same post merger is naive. Although I think that there may be something that people are missing. I f
179 EricR : That is because there is no logical answer to this. The pro-hub PHX folks only think about intra-west connectivity but fail to understand the limited
180 Post contains images commavia : I'm glad all you guys in PHX "understand" your region so well that you have AA's entire domestic network figured out. What "intra-west" connections?
181 EaglePower83 : Just throwing this out there.....would it be prudent for AA/US to eventually invade DEN or SLC?
182 HPRamper : Dehubbing PHX doesn't mean it would lose flights to the select important markets in the West that can survive on O&D alone. What's the alternativ
183 superjeff : First of all, who's driving the proverbial bus? Doug Parker is US Airways' president and he's engineered this reverse takeover of AA. I can see DFW o
184 AeroWesty : But won't be as profitable at AA's higher payscale. (Don't people actually read the thread before posting a reply?)
185 BigGSFO : Probably not. SLC is one-hub city and DL has that wrapped up well. AA would lose their shirt if they tried to push their way in. With Denver, honestl
186 Post contains images Maverick623 : I could see that. Sad, as that route is a non-rev paradise... then again, that's probably why they would cut frequencies
187 HPRamper : 1. PHX is not "vastly" profitable - it's marginally profitable, and has much more value for US as a funnel for West Coast traffic than as any kind of
188 Post contains images BigGSFO : No. Which is why the Phoenix debate goes around in circles and people rehash he same point over and over again.
189 Post contains images AAIL86 : What seems a little strange to me is how much time on these threads is being spent discussing PHX.... seems like 80% of the postings on this thread t
190 Western727 : Concur. I landed at PHX this morning and found myself looking at the airport and arriving/departing US aircraft in a very different lens; it's my fir
191 Post contains images Caryjack : I understand that salaries at US will increase but does that necessarily mean that AA's cost will be higher than the current? I would hope that the e
192 HPRamper : I'm not 100% sure about what kind of aircraft AA uses on SEA routes, but at PDX all you ever saw for years on end was MD-80s. It's possible that AA v
193 Post contains images point2point : I'm sure that the DEN airport managers would be THRILLED to have another carrier in the form of the new AA/US hubbing there..... after UA, F9, WN, ZK
194 flyguy89 : Going off what Parker was offering the unions to get their support, the merged carrier's costs will be higher than what AA's would have been if it em
195 AAIL86 : Not a chance. DEN already has among the lowest (if not absolute lowest) average fares in the country and is arguably overserved at the moment ...[Edi
196 Post contains images Caryjack : I'm not either but I don't recall ever taking an MD 80 from SEA to ORD or DFW. A random mid week sample shows the following: SEA - ORD 6 X B-738 SEA
197 Post contains links and images commavia : For those sick of talking about PHX, I read a very interesting article today on CAPA about Delta. In passing, it actually included some interesting -
198 Post contains images point2point : I didn't say whether there was a chance or not, all I stated is that the airport management would be THRILLED at having another airline such as the n
199 LDVAviation : So much for the idea that US brought nothing to the table because it had no Asia-Pacific network.
200 Fastphilly : I can't understand how American (even with the US Air merger) has such a presence in Los Angeles as a western gateway when it lacks well behind Delta
201 HPRamper : Ticket prices probably won't change from station to station. The entire system will subsidize itself. Higher fares in PHX would be a disaster as WN w
202 EricR : AA has the same LAX-Asia presence as UA and a larger LAX-Asia presence than DL. Both AA & UA fly LAX-NRT and LAX-PVG. DL flies only LAX-NRT.
203 9w748capt : Not to mention AA has some pretty solid partners in JL, QF, CX, and now MH. Not too shabby at all.
204 LAXintl : Today - there is more than a 10% difference between AA and UA. Here were the 2012 actual enplanements including regional partners. AA = 11,022,509 AS
205 Post contains links AAIL86 : Sure thing! According to RITA - here's top 49 US air markets by average fare in Q3 2012 (the last quarter that they have data on). UA and AA are raki
206 commavia : ... and thus they are extremely close in actual market share. Different numbers, slightly different result, true, but same basic idea. Both are very
207 LDVAviation : Here's the more important question: At LAX, as a result of the merger, does AA end up in a better competitive position than UA? I think they do, spec
208 SkedGuy : Thanks for the information. Just so we know whether we're comparing apples-to-apples, are these fares stage-length adjusted?
209 EaglePower83 : As a greater Hartford resident, I find it humorous/asinine to see BDL in this elite club of high fares.
210 PHX787 : I'm gonna sit back now with my Japanese tea and smirk at how the rumors and speculations...and sometimes, outlandish unwarranted attacks against PHX.
211 jonathanxxxx : Alright, with all respect, how do we know those in leadership at AA and US are not giving out false promises? Delta and United said the same thing ab
212 flyguy89 : Now I know a fellow CVG fanboy wouldn't be as naive as this to think this puts questions about PHX "to rest". Remember when DL was saying that DTW wo
213 Post contains images commavia : These are words - just like all the other words you've posted in thread after thread that you think supposedly "prove" your argument. And, as has bee
214 Post contains images AAIL86 : Are you guys interested in buying a landmark New York city bridge? Because I'm looking to offload one .... So I've been thinking lately about how MIA
215 AeroWesty : If one reads the arguments from the PHX supporters carefully, it goes like this: General population: "The hub at PHX is at risk of being downsized to
216 commavia : There will obviously be interaction between the two hubs, in my view primarily on the international side, and it's hard for me to imagine how that wo
217 BigGSFO : Milan, Zurich, South Africa, Tokyo, possibly Helsinki, Tel Aviv....definitely new domestic services (Austin comes to mind). I'd also expect some extr
218 AAIL86 : Let's play around with post merger rationalization - what if MIA 'steals' 50 flights/day from CLT, and adds 50 because of AA's improving sitution (as
219 Cubsrule : I agree, but I don't think it's going to help MIA too much either (not that, as you point out, MIA needs a whole lot of help). I see two primary "mer
220 sydscott : Lets not also forget that US currently has a fair number of services into Mexico all to itself that it doesn't have access to at LAX on its own metal
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