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A 330 Orders And Backlog  
User currently offlinewimdemeester From Netherlands, joined Dec 2011, 17 posts, RR: 0
Posted (1 year 6 months 14 hours ago) and read 12772 times:

The backlog for the A 330 is now below the 300 mark and that includes at least quite a few which will never be delivered. Meanwhile the last sizeable order for that plane dates back to the beginning of October last year. Since then only 4 more orders were booked for altogether 8 frames and this count was marred by even more cancellations.
So I wonder - and insiders may perhaps be able to explain - why Airbus has decided to bring the production level to 10 a month and 115 annually and that for a number of years to come.

Are there so many orders which still have to be annouced? Are market prospects so bright for this beautiful aircraft? I look forward to your opinions.

29 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineFocker From Netherlands, joined Jan 2011, 152 posts, RR: 0
Reply 1, posted (1 year 6 months 14 hours ago) and read 12747 times:

I am pretty sure Airbus foresees new orders on the horizon considering the huge backlog of the 787.

User currently offlinedelawareusa From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 107 posts, RR: 0
Reply 2, posted (1 year 6 months 13 hours ago) and read 12711 times:

Orders for the 787 and A350 will replace orders for the A330...

User currently offlineSASMD82 From Netherlands, joined Mar 2007, 747 posts, RR: 0
Reply 3, posted (1 year 6 months 13 hours ago) and read 12682 times:
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Quoting Focker (Reply 1):

I am pretty sure Airbus foresees new orders on the horizon considering the huge backlog of the 787.

Yes, indeed. The 787 is a problem plane at this time. Boeing really needs to solve these problems before new orders may emerge.

Quoting delawareusa (Reply 2):

Orders for the 787 and A350 will replace orders for the A330...

Again: the 787 is a problem plane at this time. Boeing really needs to solve these problems before new orders may emerge. The A350 needs to prove itself too. So yes, orders for the 787 and 350 will replace ordrs for the A330 but I think that will take some time still.


User currently offlineKarelXWB From Netherlands, joined Jul 2012, 11367 posts, RR: 33
Reply 4, posted (1 year 6 months 13 hours ago) and read 12660 times:

Airbus plan is to reduce the backlog from 3 to 2 years. According to Leahy customers must now wait too long for their frames.

Quote:
Are there so many orders which still have to be annouced?

Yes. For example, about 40 A330 aircraft for the Chinese market are still waiting for government approval.



Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity. And I'm not sure about the universe.
User currently offlineRickNRoll From Afghanistan, joined Jan 2012, 812 posts, RR: 0
Reply 5, posted (1 year 6 months 13 hours ago) and read 12473 times:

It is still a viable product, with a price advantage over the 787. While Boeing has a 787 backlog as large as it has, and it has the production rate impacted as it currently has, the A330 is going to sell now, if it is available. The 787 will eventually make it obsolete, but there is easy money to be made if Airbus is quick.

User currently offlineEPA001 From Netherlands, joined Sep 2006, 4723 posts, RR: 39
Reply 6, posted (1 year 6 months 12 hours ago) and read 12252 times:
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Quoting RickNRoll (Reply 5):

It is still a viable product, with a price advantage over the 787. While Boeing has a 787 backlog as large as it has, and it has the production rate impacted as it currently has, the A330 is going to sell now, if it is available. The 787 will eventually make it obsolete, but there is easy money to be made if Airbus is quick.

Good analysis. That pretty much sums up the situation for the A330 which will remain in production for quite some time to come. And at some point in time the freighter will also sell more copies then it does now.  


User currently offlineJerseyFlyer From United Kingdom, joined May 2007, 640 posts, RR: 0
Reply 7, posted (1 year 6 months 11 hours ago) and read 12104 times:

Quoting EPA001 (Reply 6):
A330 which will remain in production for quite some time to come. And at some point in time the freighter will also sell more copies then it does now.

And there will be military MRTT orders as well.


User currently offlineRevelation From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 12450 posts, RR: 25
Reply 8, posted (1 year 6 months 9 hours ago) and read 11680 times:

Quoting EPA001 (Reply 6):
And at some point in time the freighter will also sell more copies then it does now.

Interestingly enough, I've read recent reports saying that the massive amount of belly capacity being made available via the huge sales of A330 and B777W is undermining the market for pure freighters.



Inspiration, move me brightly!
User currently offlinePihero From France, joined Jan 2005, 4407 posts, RR: 76
Reply 9, posted (1 year 6 months 9 hours ago) and read 11648 times:
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Quoting JerseyFlyer (Reply 7):
And there will be military MRTT orders as well.

There are still 14 units for the Armée de l'Air to be budgeted for Fiscal year 2014 and beyond. These KC-135 are getting awfully long in the teeth.



Contrail designer
User currently offlinecedarjet From United Kingdom, joined May 1999, 8093 posts, RR: 54
Reply 10, posted (1 year 6 months 9 hours ago) and read 11572 times:

Quoting Revelation (Reply 8):
Interestingly enough, I've read recent reports saying that the massive amount of belly capacity being made available via the huge sales of A330 and B777W is undermining the market for pure freighters.

Not to be underestimated - the A330 has the same number of pallet positions in the belly as a 747 (Classic or -400); she's an amazing machine!



fly Saha Air 707s daily from Tehran's downtown Mehrabad to Mashhad, Kish Island and Ahwaz
User currently offlineanstar From United Kingdom, joined Nov 2003, 5190 posts, RR: 6
Reply 11, posted (1 year 6 months 8 hours ago) and read 11405 times:

Quoting cedarjet (Reply 10):
Not to be underestimated - the A330 has the same number of pallet positions in the belly as a 747 (Classic or -400); she's an amazing machine!

wow - that is truely enlightening... thanks for the info!


User currently offlineairportugal310 From Palau, joined Apr 2004, 3619 posts, RR: 2
Reply 12, posted (1 year 6 months 4 hours ago) and read 9344 times:

Quoting cedarjet (Reply 10):

No doubt. We here at HA had a record cargo year in 2012, and I'm sure those 330s definitely helped the cause...

It helps that Hawaii has to import most of its goods anyways, but lets not let that get in the way of facts.



I sell airplanes and airplane accessories
User currently offlineRickNRoll From Afghanistan, joined Jan 2012, 812 posts, RR: 0
Reply 13, posted (1 year 5 months 4 weeks 1 day 18 hours ago) and read 6103 times:

It is interesting comparing the A330 to the 748i. Boeing were obviously hoping for a similar strategy to work with the 748i, but compared to the A330, it has been a failure. That doesn't mean it's a failure for Boeing overall, though, because they have not had to put up the costs for a completely new VLA, and the 77W has in fact been taking up many sales that could have gone to the 748i.

User currently offlinesweair From Sweden, joined Nov 2011, 1820 posts, RR: 0
Reply 14, posted (1 year 5 months 4 weeks 1 day 16 hours ago) and read 5466 times:

With the cheap oil era behind us airfreight will be used in less cases, unless we consumers are willing to pay more for the outsourced crappy quality products we seem to love.

User currently offlinemigair54 From Spain, joined Jun 2007, 1696 posts, RR: 0
Reply 15, posted (1 year 5 months 4 weeks 1 day 15 hours ago) and read 5325 times:

they will get more orders and we will see some of them being converted into A350 in the future, but right now they have more than 3 years production in the backlog, it´s not bad at all given that they are also selling the plane that replace them.

However i´m sure we will see also some cargo planes and MRTT in the line and not to forget that they will soon start offertin the cargo conversion program, so that will make the A330 better to buy, because that will open a whole new second hand possibilities and that will be an added value for the program for sure.

Don´t forget that airbus is working continuously on upgrades on the A330 family and that means that they are not giving up with the family, the range, payload that they offer right now is incredibly better that the one they offer at the beginning for the program.

I don´t want to be negative but after the A380 and the B787 programs problems I think Airbus will be very stupid if they are not preparing a back up solution should anything happen, and that is the A330 and i´m sure they will have some slots blocked for the first A350 in case they need to replace with A330, they can´t they wait for a couple of years to get an interim solution.


User currently offlinezeke From Hong Kong, joined Dec 2006, 9029 posts, RR: 75
Reply 16, posted (1 year 5 months 4 weeks 1 day 14 hours ago) and read 4731 times:

Quoting Revelation (Reply 8):
I've read recent reports saying that the massive amount of belly capacity being made available via the huge sales of A330 and B777W is undermining the market for pure freighters.

You should be able to post a link to that interesting report then, if it exists. The context of those comments needs to be put in perspective, as you cannot fill all the fuel, passengers, and cargo volume on either of those aircraft and go very far, in the case of the A330-200, if you fill the tanks you carry no freight or passengers (depending on MTOW), full fuel is around 110 t.



We are addicted to our thoughts. We cannot change anything if we cannot change our thinking – Santosh Kalwar
User currently offliner2rho From Germany, joined Feb 2007, 2618 posts, RR: 1
Reply 17, posted (1 year 5 months 4 weeks 1 day 11 hours ago) and read 4351 times:

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 4):
Airbus plan is to reduce the backlog from 3 to 2 years. According to Leahy customers must now wait too long for their frames.

Ironically, the success of the A330 is now starting to hurt one of its main selling points: early availability. So Airbus needs to ramp up to ensure that availability and keep the A330 attractive. They know they have to pump out as many A330's out the door as possible as long as the uncertainty over the 787 remains, because once that is over and Boeing works through the 787 backlog that advantage will diminish rapidly. Basically, enjoy the party while they can.

Also, the more A330's out there, the bigger the market for after-sales support, future upgrades (PIP's, sharklets?, ...), cargo/military conversions, etc, where there is plenty more money to be made.


User currently offlineRevelation From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 12450 posts, RR: 25
Reply 18, posted (1 year 5 months 4 weeks 10 hours ago) and read 3585 times:

Quoting zeke (Reply 16):
You should be able to post a link to that interesting report then, if it exists.

Thanks for your vote of confidence, old man.

I just checked my browser history and it's fallen off the end.

I'll try to dig it up later lest in a small step to try to regain your faith.



Inspiration, move me brightly!
User currently offlineart From United Kingdom, joined Feb 2005, 3382 posts, RR: 1
Reply 19, posted (1 year 5 months 4 weeks 8 hours ago) and read 3341 times:

Quoting delawareusa (Reply 2):
Orders for the 787 and A350 will replace orders for the A330...
Quoting SASMD82 (Reply 3):
orders for the 787 and 350 will replace ordrs for the A330 but I think that will take some time still.

If you need medium sized widebodies soon, what can you order except A330 (or 767)? If you had to wait until near the end of the decade to get A330's I'm sure orders would be much lower.


User currently offlinelightsaber From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 13011 posts, RR: 100
Reply 20, posted (1 year 5 months 4 weeks 6 hours ago) and read 3038 times:
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I was one of the few who thought the A330 had quite a sales life ahead of it years ago. There is no doubt the A350 and 787 will eat into future sales, but the lady still has a life ahead.

Quoting airportugal310 (Reply 12):
No doubt. We here at HA had a record cargo year in 2012, and I'm sure those 330s definitely helped the cause...

No doubt. The right plane at the right time for HA. With the centerline tank, I wonder if HA will take any A333s? When are their A350s first due?

Quoting r2rho (Reply 17):
Also, the more A330's out there, the bigger the market for after-sales support, future upgrades (PIP's, sharklets?, ...), cargo/military conversions, etc, where there is plenty more money to be made.

   And the longer the line continues on, the more freighters will sell (time for the cargo market to recover).

I fully expect one more MTOW increase. What I wonder is will there be a MLW increase too? I also expect the weight savings programs to continue. With a centerline tank going into the A333, that only gives incentive to keep removing weight and adding MTOW...

I'd love to see sharklets. Alas, it might be too late.  
Quoting r2rho (Reply 17):
Ironically, the success of the A330 is now starting to hurt one of its main selling points: early availability.

A classy problem to have.    Airbus will just have to charge more for short term slots.   

Lightsaber



Societies that achieve a critical mass of ideas achieve self sustaining growth; others stagnate.
User currently offlineRevelation From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 12450 posts, RR: 25
Reply 21, posted (1 year 5 months 4 weeks 3 hours ago) and read 2803 times:

Quoting zeke (Reply 16):
You should be able to post a link to that interesting report then, if it exists.

It exists.

Ref: http://cargofacts.net/profiles/blogs...es-reflect-the-decline-in-demand-f

Quote:

The reasons for the decline are many. Slow or no global economic growth in recent years, high fuel prices, and modal shift to surface transportation have combined to cut into overall demand for air freight. And further, significant growth in passenger demand has allowed carriers to shift cargo from freighters into the bellies of their rapidly-growing fleets of cargo-friendly passenger aircraft such as A330s and 777-300ERs. However, at the same time as these trends combine to reduce demand for space on freighter aircraft, record numbers of new-build large widebody freighters are entering, or are about to enter, service.



Inspiration, move me brightly!
User currently offlinezeke From Hong Kong, joined Dec 2006, 9029 posts, RR: 75
Reply 22, posted (1 year 5 months 3 weeks 6 days 16 hours ago) and read 2369 times:

Quoting Revelation (Reply 21):

That is just a blog entry, and your statement ignored the other facts listed. The blog also does not mention sea freight, the prices dropped significantly during the GFC, and the shipping companies decided to run their ships around at slower speeds saving a significant amount of fuel. A lot have not increased their speeds, and are now able to offer low long distance freight rates.

I have not seen any DATA that demonstrates A330s and 777s are taking so much freight out of the network to delay deliveries of 747-8s, it is all conjecture IMHO. I would suggest it is more of an indication of the global freight market growth rate (retraction). As I stated above, to get any real distance out of a long distance twin, they can take, fuel, passengers, or freight, but not all 3 in any great quantity at the same time.

Short to medium haul, it is a different picture, yes twins are taking freight away from dedicated freighters, however that is not why Atlas, Volga-Dnepr, Nippon Cargo, Korean Air in my view are deferring aircraft. They are in the long haul freight business with those aircraft, and that has been in a slump for some time. This is evidenced by the reduced amount of cargo being uplifted from the major freight hubs worldwide.



We are addicted to our thoughts. We cannot change anything if we cannot change our thinking – Santosh Kalwar
User currently offlineparapente From United Kingdom, joined Mar 2006, 1565 posts, RR: 10
Reply 23, posted (1 year 5 months 3 weeks 6 days 15 hours ago) and read 2227 times:

As stated the issue at present is the backlog. This dates back to the buying "rush" for the 787 and as a result the same for the 330 - just to make sure that the airlines had the planes they needed.
There have been no significant orders for 787's 330's or 358's for a long while as a result. (and the 358 has been moved back behind the 351 I believe).

The key I believe will be the production rate of the 787. Obviously right now it is impossible to say. I believe they are looking at Blended winglets for the 330 as a future enhancement as well.So I guess they see a healthy future for the aircraft. Certainly Airbus' parent's stock price reflects optimism (and it won't be based on military sales I imagine!).


User currently offlineEPA001 From Netherlands, joined Sep 2006, 4723 posts, RR: 39
Reply 24, posted (1 year 5 months 3 weeks 6 days 14 hours ago) and read 2163 times:
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Quoting parapente (Reply 23):
(and the 358 has been moved back behind the 351 I believe).

Slightly off-topic but the A358 is set for 2016 and the A351 for 2017 if I recall correctly. For the rest I mostly agree with your post but I believe the A330 has seen some recent orders (just as the B77W) from airlines like TK and others. So a slow-down in orders is there (probably also due to the backlog), but they are still coming in and my guess is they will remain coming in for quite a while.  .


User currently offlineaviaponcho From France, joined Aug 2011, 613 posts, RR: 8
Reply 25, posted (1 year 5 months 3 weeks 6 days 14 hours ago) and read 2225 times:

If you have a look at the airbus new beluga presentation you can analyse forecasted production rate to 2020 from now

A330 :
2015 11 / month;
2016 10 / month ..
2020 : 5 / month

So that's > 900 A330 to be delivered and a lot to be ordered...


User currently offlineMCOflyer From United States of America, joined Jun 2006, 8671 posts, RR: 15
Reply 26, posted (1 year 5 months 3 weeks 6 days 14 hours ago) and read 2222 times:

US Airways has some 200's on order. Whether they take them or not with the merger with AA is anyones guess.

KH



Never be afraid to stand up for who you are.
User currently offlineJerseyFlyer From United Kingdom, joined May 2007, 640 posts, RR: 0
Reply 27, posted (1 year 5 months 3 weeks 6 days 14 hours ago) and read 2171 times:

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 20):
I also expect the weight savings programs to continue.

There was talk about removing the outer engine attachment points for the A340 from the A330 wing to save weight after the A340 ceased production. Does anyone know if that has / will happen?


User currently offlineMEA-707 From Netherlands, joined Nov 1999, 4320 posts, RR: 36
Reply 28, posted (1 year 5 months 3 weeks 6 days 14 hours ago) and read 2124 times:

Both Airbus and Boeing try to have their current aircraft types available in 2-3 years; also the 747, 767, 777 and A-380 orderbooks are shrinking and if you are willing to take current generation 737s or A-320s there are still a few 2014-2017 slots for you as well. Indeed it costs quite some money to shrink or increase production rates in short notice but I am sure it's more then compensated by the high margins they make on these aircraft, where design and test costs have already been written off. Indeed if new orders don't materialize or some orders get cancelled or deferred they have to shrink production of the A-330 or 777 back to 6 or 7 a month within 2 or 3 years.


nobody has ever died from hard work, but why take the risk?
User currently offlineastuteman From United Kingdom, joined Jan 2005, 10008 posts, RR: 96
Reply 29, posted (1 year 5 months 3 weeks 6 days 14 hours ago) and read 2085 times:
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Quoting aviaponcho (Reply 25):
A330 :
2015 11 / month;
2016 10 / month ..
2020 : 5 / month

So that's > 900 A330 to be delivered and a lot to be ordered...

On the basis that Airbus's "per month" figure usually translates into 10 months worth in a year, I make that forecast, based on your numbers to be something like

2013 - 110
2014 - 110
2015 - 110
2016 - 100
2017 - 90
2018 - 70
2019 - 60
2020 - 50

Which makes my take another 700 deliveries, requiring 400 more orders, in the next 8 years.

On top of that, to be at 50 per year in 2020 would still imply a backlog remaining of over 100 frames (i.e. greater than 2 years), so it appears Airbus are forecasting another 500+ sales of A330's in the next decade

Rgds


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