miaintl From United States of America, joined Jun 2010, 827 posts, RR: 0 Posted (3 months 1 week 1 day 17 hours ago) and read 5624 times:
I remember back in the 90's SA flew daily MIA-CPT/JNB on a 744. Was there a large market between Miami and South Africa back then, and if so is that market still there today? I am aware that part of the reason that the flight was in existence back then was because of the AA codeshare. Is there a chance that SA will reinstate this route or at least AA?
MaverickM11 From United States of America, joined Apr 2000, 15813 posts, RR: 50 Reply 1, posted (3 months 1 week 1 day 17 hours ago) and read 5622 times:
Doubtful. The market is actually pretty small and it's not a star hub.
AAMDanny From United Kingdom, joined Apr 2008, 316 posts, RR: 0 Reply 3, posted (3 months 1 week 1 day 17 hours ago) and read 5607 times:
Geographically... MIA would be a good transit point for US-SA/SA-UA traffic.
With MIA being a AA hub and SA being a member of *A I think AA would probably be the best contender on the route as it has a feed to the rest of the USA to keep the loads healthy. Plus there is Comair in SA to feed the service in JNB.
MaverickM11 From United States of America, joined Apr 2000, 15813 posts, RR: 50 Reply 4, posted (3 months 1 week 1 day 17 hours ago) and read 5519 times:
Quoting miaintl (Reply 2): If the market is so small why did SA fly it for years back in the 90's. Also which route is further JFK-JNB or MIA-JNB?
It's one of the closest points to South Africa and they had an agreement with AA. As soon as they switched to DL the service quickly moved to ATL exclusively after a brief attempt in FLL. And when SA joined Star, it all moved to IAD, so even without looking at the data it's a reasonable guess that the Southeast wasn't a critical factor with SA. Since then DL has added ATL nonstop and JFK and IAD have grown in capacity on SA, and the South Florida market has remained small.
MIflyer12 From United States of America, joined Feb 2013, 167 posts, RR: 0 Reply 6, posted (3 months 1 week 1 day 17 hours ago) and read 5462 times:
Quoting miaintl (Reply 2): If the market is so small why did SA fly it for years back in the 90's. Also which route is further JFK-JNB or MIA-JNB?
JFK-JNB is actually the shorter of the two routes you mention.
With South African in *A and AA in oneworld, JNB-MIA would rely S Florida origin/destination traffic, and get killed by Delta's JNB-ATL, with ATL offering ~3x the flights of AA at MIA as well as far more domestic destinations.
miaintl From United States of America, joined Jun 2010, 827 posts, RR: 0 Reply 7, posted (3 months 1 week 1 day 16 hours ago) and read 5295 times:
But is the O&D between Miami and South Africa big enough to support a nonstop flight with SA? The O&D was very large back in the 90's. What happened to that market since then? Has the South african diaspora left Dade county?
usflyer msp From United States of America, joined May 2000, 1809 posts, RR: 0 Reply 8, posted (3 months 1 week 1 day 16 hours ago) and read 5295 times:
Quoting MIflyer12 (Reply 6): JFK-JNB is actually the shorter of the two routes you mention.
With South African in *A and AA in oneworld, JNB-MIA would rely S Florida origin/destination traffic, and get killed by Delta's JNB-ATL, with ATL offering ~3x the flights of AA at MIA as well as far more domestic destinations.
Actually, AA would get feed from BA/Comair in South Africa...
airbazar From United States of America, joined Sep 2003, 6955 posts, RR: 7 Reply 9, posted (3 months 1 week 1 day 16 hours ago) and read 5260 times:
Quoting miaintl (Reply 7): But is the O&D between Miami and South Africa big enough to support a nonstop flight with SA? The O&D was very large back in the 90's. What happened to that market since then? Has the South african diaspora left Dade county?
If you take into account that SA was cooperating with AA at MIA (i.e. feed from the rest of the country), and that for all intents SA was not concerned with being profitable (they still aren't), just because they were flying to MIA it doesn't mean that there was large O&D least of all a profitable large O&D traffic, unless you can prove it.
MaverickM11 From United States of America, joined Apr 2000, 15813 posts, RR: 50 Reply 10, posted (3 months 1 week 1 day 16 hours ago) and read 5248 times:
Quoting miaintl (Reply 7): The O&D was very large back in the 90's. What happened to that market since then? Has the South african diaspora left Dade county?
The diaspora isn't that big, sure it's big for South Africans in the US, but not big enough to support a flight. Plus it's not the 90s any more--the break even load factor probably went from 110% in the 90s to 130% now, and with South Africa lurching between high growth and high crime, I just don't think any major business developments have sprung up between Florida and South Africa that would support a flight either.
Quoting airbazar (Reply 9): and that for all intents SA was not concerned with being profitable (they still aren't),
Ascribing reason to SA's actions is a little futile
luv2fly From United States of America, joined May 2003, 11957 posts, RR: 51 Reply 11, posted (3 months 1 week 1 day 16 hours ago) and read 5224 times:
Quoting miaintl (Reply 7): But is the O&D between Miami and South Africa big enough to support a nonstop flight with SA? The O&D was very large back in the 90's. What happened to that market since then? Has the South african diaspora left Dade county?
You answered your own question, if it was big enough to support a nonstop or flight at all, it would still be operating.
Byrdluvs747 From United States of America, joined Jul 2004, 2152 posts, RR: 1 Reply 12, posted (3 months 1 week 1 day 12 hours ago) and read 4790 times:
Quoting usflyer msp (Reply 8): Actually, AA would get feed from BA/Comair in South Africa...
In addition to US domestic, I've always wondered how much traffic AA could expect between the Caribbean and Africa.
The 747: The hands who designed it were guided by god.
airbazar From United States of America, joined Sep 2003, 6955 posts, RR: 7 Reply 14, posted (3 months 1 week 1 day 11 hours ago) and read 4596 times:
Quoting BigGSFO (Reply 13): I would expect to see SA)">AA with a 787 on this route before SA returns.
It's possible however, how much traffic is there, especially premium traffic, between the US and S.Africa that is not already cornered by both DL and SA/UA?
American 767 From United States of America, joined May 1999, 3334 posts, RR: 14 Reply 15, posted (3 months 1 week 1 day 7 hours ago) and read 4339 times:
Quoting miaintl (Reply 2): If the market is so small why did SA fly it for years back in the 90's.
Don't forget back then, mid 90s, AA and SA were code sharing with each other. At that time, SA was not yet in Star.
"Aimer jusqu'a l'impossible, c'est possible". Tina Arena.
jfk777 From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 7410 posts, RR: 7 Reply 16, posted (3 months 1 week 22 hours ago) and read 2971 times:
Quoting miaintl (Thread starter): remember back in the 90's SA flew daily MIA-CPT/JNB on a 744.
SAA started once a week then twice, three times and so on. The AA code share came after the route was operating for some time and AA was building up its then new MIA hub. SAA plied the Miami route for about 10 years until early 2001, it is a unique route in the history of Miami. It is also the longest route by about 2,000 miless ever operated fom Miami. Miami to Capetown is 7,700 miles each way.
Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 4): It's one of the closest points to South Africa and they had an agreement with AA. As soon as they switched to DL the service quickly moved to ATL exclusively after a brief attempt in FLL.
FLL and DELTA were the same deal, FLL was a landing point for SAA since they could not fly nonstop from South Africa to Atlanta, SAA never sold tickets from FLL to J'berg or Cape Town nonstop or direct; passengers had to fly to Atlanta & connect. The runway at FLL is too short for a 744 for such a long flight. The DL and SAA deal lasted for about 5 years until SAA decided to join the Star Alliance.
usflyer msp From United States of America, joined May 2000, 1809 posts, RR: 0 Reply 17, posted (3 months 1 week 21 hours ago) and read 2750 times:
Quoting jfk777 (Reply 16): FLL and DELTA were the same deal, FLL was a landing point for SAA since they could not fly nonstop from South Africa to Atlanta, SAA never sold tickets from FLL to J'berg or Cape Town nonstop or direct; passengers had to fly to Atlanta & connect.
This is not exactly correct. The ATL flight only stopped in FLL on its way to ATL (the return was non-stop) but SA did allow passengers to get off at FLL. Note that SA was so committed to South Florida that it moved its US HQ to FLL (and it is still there despite the lack of service)...
ETinCaribe From Ethiopia, joined Dec 2009, 634 posts, RR: 0 Reply 18, posted (3 months 1 week 19 hours ago) and read 2342 times:
Living in Miami, I wish that option existed but I doubt it will come online anytime soon. Many reasons as mentioned by others. Just to add a couple more, SAA is still in turmoil, just got a new interim CEO, still is getting government bailout. I doubt a long shot O&D VFR traffic-based, low yield route is on their radar screen.
Quoting usflyer msp (Reply 17): Note that SA was so committed to South Florida that it moved its US HQ to FLL (and it is still there despite the lack of service)...
If only that was the worst thing SAA did to handicap itself.
Quoting BigGSFO (Reply 13): I would expect to see SA)">AA with a 787 on this route before SA returns.
cv990coronado From South Africa, joined Nov 2007, 276 posts, RR: 0 Reply 19, posted (3 months 1 week 19 hours ago) and read 2189 times:
"quoting airbazar"
"It's possible however, how much traffic is there, especially premium traffic, between the US and S.Africa that is not already cornered by both SA)">DL and SA/UA?"
BA take lots . Most of the premium one world traffic goes via LHR with BA/BA or AA/AA using the BA flights to London. BA has more capacity ex SA than any airline other than SAA and EK. At this time of year 2 x 744 CPTLHR and 2 x 744 JNBLHR. Also BA have a shareholding in the BA/Comair franchise which operates within SA and to neighbouring countries.
Before SAA got involved with Star there was a great deal of cooperation between SAA and AA, even unofficially in the pre 1994 days.
I don't think a direct CPTMIA is viable at present even if a 787 was available. The CPTMIA market was low yield, the higher yield traffic goes to NYC/WAS. I think BA covers most destinations with good connections. Another advantage BA has in this market is that they have First where many others only have J.
Sadly, as it would be great to see an AA 777 or 787 in CPT.
SSC-707B727 737-741234SP757/762/3/772/WA300/10/319/2/1-342/3/6-880-DAM-VC10 TRD 111 Ju52-DC8/9/10/11-YS11-748-VCV DH4B L
2travel2know2 From Panama, joined Apr 2010, 2076 posts, RR: 1 Reply 20, posted (3 months 1 week 17 hours ago) and read 1915 times:
If SA has doubts of MIA because it's not a Star hub.. PTY further south is one. And it'd be very happy (not to say CM too) to welcome SA be non-stop from JNB or CPT or w/ stop somewhere in Brazil (where CM isn't flying right-now).
And talking about SA to MIA,, Could AA tag-on JNB to one of its Brazilian destinations?
airbazar From United States of America, joined Sep 2003, 6955 posts, RR: 7 Reply 21, posted (3 months 1 week 17 hours ago) and read 1897 times:
Quoting cv990coronado (Reply 19): BA take lots . Most of the premium one world traffic goes via LHR with BA/BA or SA)">AA/AA using the BA flights to London.
True but that doesn't really bode well for a MIA-JNB flight either. For example, JFK-LHR-JNB is still a shorter route than JFK-MIA-JNB. There's a reason why the majority of US-SA traffic flies via Europe.
jfk777 From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 7410 posts, RR: 7 Reply 22, posted (3 months 1 week 16 hours ago) and read 1831 times:
Quoting usflyer msp (Reply 17): FLL and DELTA were the same deal, FLL was a landing point for SAA since they could not fly nonstop from South Africa to Atlanta, SAA never sold tickets from FLL to J'berg or Cape Town nonstop or direct; passengers had to fly to Atlanta & connect.
This is not exactly correct. The ATL flight only stopped in FLL on its way to ATL (the return was non-stop) but SA did allow passengers to get off at FLL. Note that SA was so committed to South Florida that it moved its US HQ to FLL (and it is still there despite the lack of service)...
US customs mandate that international flights clear customs at their first US airport, so by landing at FLL SAA passengers could get off at FLL. I didn't want to get into the minutia of customs regulations.
cv990coronado From South Africa, joined Nov 2007, 276 posts, RR: 0 Reply 23, posted (3 months 1 week 16 hours ago) and read 1800 times:
"quoting airbazar"
"True but that doesn't really bode well for a MIA-JNB flight either. For example, JFK-LHR-JNB is still a shorter route than JFK-MIA-JNB. There's a reason why the majority of US-SA traffic flies via Europe."
Yes it does and always has been. It's not so good flying US/Europe/SA as the other way around but it's not too bad.
I was thinking there has been an AA aircraft flying to JNB and CPT. Some years ago USAfrica Airways flew to JNB and CPT from IAD with a leased AA MD11. Maybe that's the closest they will ever come . Hopefully not!
SSC-707B727 737-741234SP757/762/3/772/WA300/10/319/2/1-342/3/6-880-DAM-VC10 TRD 111 Ju52-DC8/9/10/11-YS11-748-VCV DH4B L
jfk777 From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 7410 posts, RR: 7 Reply 24, posted (3 months 1 week 15 hours ago) and read 1765 times:
With the Usairways and AA merger Charlotte could be a great gateway for a J'berg flight. If there is any reason for an AA merger with Usair its CLT. Philadelphia offers AA another east coast gateway to Europe and Phoenix offers a western hub which is too far south with no flights, yet, to Tokyo or Sydney or LHR.
25 mah4546: More significantly, SAA, unsuccessfully, appealed to DOT for an exemption to allow it to continue serving Ft. Lauderdale without having to deboard ev
26 jfk777: Why would you say the old AA would never do South Africa ? Considering the political situation and safety concerns in some Latin Countries they fly t
27 flymia: If AA ever serves JNB/CPT it will be from MIA. That is an IF though and it won't be until they have the 787 or at least more 773s.
28 BigGSFO: I'm certain he wasn't implying it was for political reasons. It was more about the old AA's lack of progressive thinking and risk taking into new mar
29 MaverickM11: Given that the only way to do that would be via GRU or EZE which are both heavily constrained, there's minimal double ticketing that's going to save
30 Miami: The study found that up to four weekly roundtrip passenger frequencies on A340 aircraft with a 71% load factor potential were realistic, as long as th
31 MaverickM11: ...with a break even load factor of 103% 71% is unviable for long haul, unless you have some crazy high yield traffic, which MIA does not.
32 2travel2know2: IMHO GRU-JNB route could well use another player, if AA was able to squeeze a GRU-JNB-GRU between GRU open-slots times that'd be a better aircraft uti
33 LAXintl: For the record, US bilateral allow for service to South Africa via Brazil. Back in the day SAA even flew to the US via GIG for a period. (I believe it
34 airbazar: But it's a very price conscious market which exists primarily in the NYC area. The SA diaspora in the US is not in Florida. So as I pointed out, flyi
35 jfk777: Several long haul airlines fly to Miami with no alliance feed, why should SAA not do it just for that reason. BA flies to many cities in the USA and a
37 ETinCaribe: Not sure, since they don't seem to have any problem filling a WB on MIA-GRU, so not much space for MIA-JNB, plus I think the yield wouldn't be that g
38 airbazar: South African immigration in the US is not very large to begin with and because of it it's hard to find definitive information online but I seem to r
39 yellowtail: Probably more than you think...we just booked 4 pax BZE-ATL-JNB today on DL and in J!....about our 20th ticket to Joberg from BZE this year at this o
40 LAXintl: I think getting the South African population in the US is a bit tricky. Its really two separate groups from what I can discern. One are the historic w
41 Viscount724: As did Pan Am for a while. I recall a Pan Am 747SP flight operating JFK-GIG-JNB. SAA's JNB-GIG-JFK route was their first service to both North and So
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