Today , Monday 18th , Lion Air will sign at the Elysee in presence of F Hollande and F Bregier a huge order of more than 200 A320s , which would be a mix of CEO and NEO.
This is not the first time an Airbus order is signed at the Elysee , as Qatar did so with N Sakorzy.
However a BIG coup for Airbus , and probably a nice discount for Lion Air.
anfromme From Ireland, joined Feb 2012, 283 posts, RR: 10 Reply 4, posted (2 months 5 days 1 hour ago) and read 19374 times:
Quoting AeroWesty (Reply 1): « la page que vous avez demandée n'existe pas »
The link somehow got broken.
Here is a working version, although apparently of a slightly different article: Click!
That article quotes "more than 200 A320, many of them for the re-engined NEO version of the medium-haul plane"
I know that this has been rumoured for a while, but I'm still surprised, given that they already have orders for 201 MAX.
Looking at the current MAX vs NEO order breakdown, this order also means that, out of 11 disclosed airline customers for the MAX, three also ordered NEO. Not wholly expected.
Stitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 26697 posts, RR: 83 Reply 5, posted (2 months 5 days 1 hour ago) and read 19245 times:
Quoting lightsaber (Reply 3): Either way, Airbus just stole a customer from Boeing.
These planes are destined for their subsidiary, Malindo Air, which is currently using 737-900ERs borrowed from Lion Air. The order has long been rumored to be going Airbus and I am of the opinion the likely reason for this is the same reason AA went to Airbus - Boeing cannot get them enough planes in the timeframe they need them (they want at least 100 planes within 10 years). Airbus might also have been able to line up financing for the deal (as they did for AA).
As for Lion Air, I expect them to remain a strong Boeing customer. For example, their other subsidiary, Batik Air, has ordered the 737-900ER and 787-8.
a380900 From France, joined Dec 2003, 1006 posts, RR: 1 Reply 6, posted (2 months 4 days 23 hours ago) and read 18754 times:
Isn't this all starting to feel a little like 2007? There is so much money made available by central banks for financing everywhere in the world that we are back to a level of orders and backlogs that seem a tad unrealistic. Airlines have planes up to the gills.
I mean Airbus and Boeing are running at record production levels (600 planes each last year give or take). And if we are to believe that all these planes will be delivered, it feels like both companies will have to double production in the next few years (average of 1000 orders for Boeing and 1100 planes for Airbus for the last two year). Has this ever occurred in recent aviation history? Something smacks of "irrational exuberance" here...
Are there other folks sharing a dose of skepticism here?
Most of this is "irrational exuberance" is fueled by the belief held by a growing number of the investor class that commercial aircraft are a safe harbor for their cash. The proof of the pudding regarding this theory will most likely be during the next significant economic downturn, when we find out whether governments like Indonesia will readily assist in returning these assets to their rightful owners should the necessity arise when the chips are down.
sxf24 From United States of America, joined Aug 2007, 1225 posts, RR: 0 Reply 9, posted (2 months 4 days 23 hours ago) and read 18545 times:
Quoting a380900 (Reply 6): Are there other folks sharing a dose of skepticism here?
Absolutely. While there is currently appears real demand to support product rates, I really wonder it is all sustainable. The behavior of certain airlines with astronomical orders - Air Asia, LionAir, Norwegian - is really concerning. Even if they stay profitable, how does these airlines take delivery and pay for massive order books from both manufacturers. There are only so many places and people in Southeast Asia and Europe that are going to travel. And there are only so many banks and lessors willing and able to work with these airlines.
lightsaber From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 10671 posts, RR: 100 Reply 10, posted (2 months 4 days 22 hours ago) and read 18383 times:
Quoting AeroWesty (Reply 3): A customer who just last year ordered $22 billion worth of 737s?
Boeing Signs Record $22.4 Billion Lion Air Order for 737s
Then they will bid Boeing and Airbus off against each other.
Quoting a380900 (Reply 6):
Isn't this all starting to feel a little like 2007? There is so much money made available by central banks for financing everywhere in the world that we are back to a level of orders and backlogs that seem a tad unrealistic. Airlines have planes up to the gills.
I see why you have skepticism. However, all indications are interest rates will stay low for a while and thus the 'buy new' versus fuel expenses have shifted toward rotating fleets more often. In particular with high oil prices. I think we'll eventually see a glut. But there are enough older aircraft to replace and growth to keep the pace for a bit.
If the central banks turn off the money, we go into a depression. Or they keep it coming and we have some inflation, but mostly a re-balancing of trade deficits. The current trade deficits are unsustainable. But it will be a rolling process.
Until then, we'll watch MD-80s, 737 'classics,' old A320s, and other types rotated out for newer planes.
Oh, this will end abruptly. But not for a while. And we're talking NEOs. The 'step drop' in fuel burn will keep that line going. But we should also see the global middle class double over 13 years. That will increase the demand significantly. In particular for Lion Air (they're in one of the highest growth regions for the next decade).
MillwallSean From Brunei, joined Apr 2008, 1115 posts, RR: 5 Reply 13, posted (2 months 4 days 19 hours ago) and read 17828 times:
I remain deeply skeptical about Lionairs expansion plans, in fact about their entire organisation. they did try Australia a few years ago but ran into trouble despite offering money left, right and centre. Must have come as a surprise for them that everything cant be bought with cash.
They have ordered way to many planes for whats even remotely possible as I see it. the infrastructure in Indonesia wont catch up with the plane deliveries of Lionair. Malindo wants to be the third wheel between East and West Malaysia. 3 hours flight average fair RM 200.
I know both Boeing and Airbus happily accepts deposits, they would be fools not to and I know Exim bank in the US and the European equivalent does it best to assist with funding for airlines such as Lionair but to be honest this order just feels like a waste of time. I'm sure Airbus/Boeing oversells its lines a fair bit but why would an airline such as Lionair need to order so many planes when there is no credible plan to deploy them nor infrastructure to handle them in their homemarket...
And yeah I have flown them, a few times. Usually out of SIN. Nothing bad has ever happened and the flights are just fine.
But they are still banned by the EU which means my corporate travel insurance doesn't cover travel on Lionair and this is the same for virtually any western company since most re insurers etc are European based. Any targeting of foreign business customers is far far away.
Well congratulations to both parties non the less. An order is an order and im sure someone will be drinking champagne.
francoflier From France, joined Oct 2001, 3195 posts, RR: 10 Reply 15, posted (2 months 4 days 19 hours ago) and read 17452 times:
How many potential orders are we talking about for the A320 family between the recent Turkish, Lufthansa and Lion Air orders?
The resale value for used single aisle aircraft is bound to the floor. With so much capacity being poured out the assembly lines and made available to carriers, I'm guessing selling the aircrafts they're replacing will be tough. Parts, on the other hand, will be in high demand and the scrappers are going to be working overtime.
Unless the extra capacity is absorbed by extra growth in travel demand for these carriers, but somehow I doubt it. It just sounds too extravagant.
Looks like I picked the wrong week to quit posting...
Asiaflyer From Singapore, joined May 2007, 1019 posts, RR: 1 Reply 16, posted (2 months 4 days 18 hours ago) and read 17269 times:
Quoting Stitch (Reply 5): The order has long been rumored to be going Airbus and I am of the opinion the likely reason for this is the same reason AA went to Airbus - Boeing cannot get them enough planes in the timeframe they need them (they want at least 100 planes within 10 years). Airbus might also have been able to line up financing for the deal (as they did for AA).
Sounds just like you try to find excuses why Boeing does not get this order, but you are avoiding the real one.
The A320Neo is at least as compelling for the airlines as the 737MAX. New engines with larger fan diameter can give the A320Neo a few more percent fuel burn advantage vs 737MAX and airlines can load the luggage by containers instead of loading by hand. No surprise that A320Neo gets orders from AA as well as Lion Air and Norwegian. The plane is just as good for them as the 737.
seahawk From Germany, joined May 2005, 99 posts, RR: 0 Reply 17, posted (2 months 4 days 17 hours ago) and read 16382 times:
Sorry, I did not want to turn it into the usual A vs B war, but I think it is wrong to say that the larger engine diameter is an advantage without taking the whole plae desing into consideration. MAX and NEO should be so close that for most customers secondary features will be deciding.
Price, finance options
ability to take cargo in containers
delivery dates
Even if the MAX should be 3-5% more efficent in a best case scenario, this would be hardly a good enough reason to wait 5 or more years longer.
francoflier From France, joined Oct 2001, 3195 posts, RR: 10 Reply 18, posted (2 months 4 days 17 hours ago) and read 16329 times:
Quoting seahawk (Reply 23): Even if the MAX should be 3-5% more efficent in a best case scenario, this would be hardly a good enough reason to wait 5 or more years longer.
So, you're not only assuming that the MAX is up to 5% more efficient than the NEO, but also that the NEO backlog is so small that you can get one 5 years before a MAX and at a much higher discount?
If you're not a flame starter, then, I'm truly sorry, but your logic is seriously questionable here...
Looks like I picked the wrong week to quit posting...
seahawk From Germany, joined May 2005, 99 posts, RR: 0 Reply 19, posted (2 months 4 days 16 hours ago) and read 15634 times:
Quoting francoflier (Reply 24):
So, you're not only assuming that the MAX is up to 5% more efficient than the NEO, but also that the NEO backlog is so small that you can get one 5 years before a MAX and at a much higher discount?
I did not say that the NEO would be cheaper. The point was that both planes seem to be so close in capability that this does not make a difference. Many airline have taken up both types, I would think this is down to delivery dates.
Lion Air would probably wait longer for 400 737 to be delivered than for 200 737 + 200 A320. AA would probably also wait longer for an all Airbus order than for the mixed order.
chiad From Norway, joined May 2006, 907 posts, RR: 0 Reply 20, posted (2 months 4 days 16 hours ago) and read 16308 times:
Quoting seahawk (Reply 25): Many airline have taken up both types
May I remind you that those many airlines are earlier B737 only customers, now switching to the NEO.
One, and only one exception (as far as I know) goes against the tide: SilkAir
EPA001 From Netherlands, joined Sep 2006, 3591 posts, RR: 36 Reply 21, posted (2 months 4 days 16 hours ago) and read 16319 times:
Quoting astuteman (Reply 18): As for the 737 being "more efficient", I'd suggest that a) that would be hard to prove, and b) the meteoric sales of both types suggest that the difference is a wash....
The difference is indeed negligible. On some routes the B737-MAX will be the slightly better performing airplane, and on some routes the A320-NEO will be the better airplane. And in both cases there is not much difference, and things as seat-count and possibly taking up a little bit of cargo could shift the balance either way.
Quoting chiad (Reply 25): The majority for customers, after analysing the two competitors, regard the NEO a more suited product for them. And I think most airlines are very very very focused on the economics.
I guess all airlines are mainly focused on economics. And since the CEO's, the NEO's, the NG and the MAX are all selling like hot cakes, the overall economics must be very close to each other. Because no airliner says no to a structural 3-5% difference in economics, no matter in which airplane's favor that percentage would be.
Antoniemey From United States of America, joined Dec 2005, 1504 posts, RR: 4 Reply 22, posted (2 months 4 days 16 hours ago) and read 16010 times:
Quoting Asiaflyer (Reply 16): and airlines can load the luggage by containers instead of loading by hand
I don't think this is considered very much, if at all, when comparing the two models. Granted, I'm in the US, but I've not heard of an airline that loads its A320s with containers. It's doable, sure, but the bin just isn't large enough (except maybe on the 21) to make it any more efficient.
Make something Idiot-proof, and the Universe will make a more inept idiot.
KD5MDK From United States of America, joined Mar 2013, 60 posts, RR: 0 Reply 23, posted (2 months 4 days 15 hours ago) and read 15639 times:
Quoting lightsaber (Reply 10): I see why you have skepticism. However, all indications are interest rates will stay low for a while and thus the 'buy new' versus fuel expenses have shifted toward rotating fleets more often. In particular with high oil prices. I think we'll eventually see a glut. But there are enough older aircraft to replace and growth to keep the pace for a bit.
What we're seeing is a strong bet that operating costs are going to be higher than capital costs. Part of this is an extremely low cost of financing and part is high fuel prices. If either changes, there will be a big move in the other direction. As it is, airlines like DL which make a habit of using low capital costs to offset higher operational costs will be feeding on the unwanted narrow bodies that other airlines are casting off. I'm not sure who else follows that model, but it has to be attractive to anybody who has a very large existing MRO organization so maintenance isn't as daunting as it is for leaner operations.
EPA001 From Netherlands, joined Sep 2006, 3591 posts, RR: 36 Reply 24, posted (2 months 4 days 15 hours ago) and read 15174 times:
Quoting Antoniemey (Reply 28): Granted, I'm in the US, but I've not heard of an airline that loads its A320s with containers. It's doable, sure, but the bin just isn't large enough (except maybe on the 21) to make it any more efficient.
LH is an airline that if I recall correctly uses containers on the A320, though not on all flights. But LH is not the only one, though I have no list of airlines which use containers on the A320-series for luggage and other cargo.
Still waiting to hear more official news about the Lion Air order. At 11:00 AM in continental Europe no new information has come out.
[Edited 2013-03-18 03:09:16]
25 Pihero: As usual, a very funny thread when seen from a distance : Skepticism about the seriousness of the order or rather the number suggested from forumers w
26 sirtoby: Here is a source claiming the order is for 234 aircraft, 174 neos and (consequently) 60 ceos. http://www.thejakartaglobe.com/busin...rbus-order-costs-
27 AirbusA6: Yes, economies are growing strongly in this part of the world, but these mega orders do smack of publicity and ego massaging. Go for the headline mass
28 KarelXWB: Here is the Airbus press release: "Indonesia’s Lion Air has placed a firm order with Airbus for 234 A320 Family aircraft, comprising 109 A320neo, 65
29 EPA001: Thanks, also for the picture. And that shows an Airbus in Lion Air colors. Interesting. And of course congratulations to Airbus and Lion Air and ever
30 anfromme: Now makes for a total of 2179 firmly ordered NEO. Incredible. Leahy makes passing the 2000 order threshold look easy with three orders for more than 1
31 Aviaponcho: What can remain in Leahhy's sleeve for PAS2013 ? Widebodies orders ? Airbus buying BBD Aero Waiting for Ryan Air order now
32 Pihero: Most mainline airlines use the LD3 (45 inches) for the 320 family except the 318. The 319 takes 4 : 2 in the forward hols, 2 in the aft. For the 320
33 KarelXWB: What is Leahy's sales target for 2013? 700 orders? He is already more than halfway now, and the Bourget show has still to come.[Edited 2013-03-18 04:
34 Pihero: We could have a very boring order-less Le Bourget Airshow Still, 416 firm orders in just five days is... impressive.
35 anfromme: Delivery dates should actually be in the MAX's favour at this point - its EIS is 2017, vs late 2015 for NEO, but Airbus now has almost twice as many
36 Aviaponcho: I prefer a lot of new product launched at PAS2013 that an orgy of narrowbodies orders But I guess we'll have A380, 777X ans 787-10 orders... and boei
37 KarelXWB: Correct, but I'm sure there are still some NEO slots before 2020 left. 2200 orders is worth of > 4 years of production (2015-2019) but not all air
38 queb: Lion now has 83 737 in it's fleet, 330 737 and 234 Airbus A320 on order for a total of 647 aircrafts... [Edited 2013-03-18 04:36:59]
39 chieft: Basically an airline looks at the package the manufacturers offering them: Operational points are important, of course, financials of course too, deli
40 TS-IOR: 234 exactly, but i guess Boeing would have gained this contract as Lion Air is a classic customer for them In terms of operations on which basis will
41 Bthebest: I'm wondering where all the A320ceo slots are coming from? As I understand it, A320neos will be start being produced in 2015 with full transition to n
42 KarelXWB: I would be surpised to see the 777X launched so soon. There are about 8 months between the 787-10X ATO (October 2012) and the official launch (June -
43 autothrust: How many NEO's are ordered at the moment? I'ts amazing how it sells like hot cakes.
44 KarelXWB: The A320 production rate will go up to 42 per month / 504 per year in the next couple of months.
45 seahawk: The more interesting question will be the engine choice on those NEOs.
46 KarelXWB: Check out http://www.pdxlight.com/neomax.htm
47 airboe: Airbus only produce some 11 month a year due to holidays etc., - I do not recall the exact number though, but I am sure you can't say ("monthly produ
49 TaromA380: In almost twice of the time frame since launching, isn't it ?
50 817Dreamliiner: Congrats to Airbus and Lion Air with this order! Ill guess they'll go Leap-X, but of course stranger things have happened...[Edited 2013-03-18 05:46:5
51 autothrust: Many thanks, very interesting site.
52 francoflier: Yes. That, I agree with. It is certainly not unusual for an airline placing a huge order of single-aisle airliners to hedge their bets by going 50/50
53 Bthebest: It was 2011 actually - but a good point that my post only looked at A320 not the whole family. Family wise they delivered 455 in 2012. Even at 504, t
54 chiad: Not by a long shot!! NEO was launched 12/01/10 - 838 days - 2,179 firm orders - 2.60 firm orders per day (Average) MAX was launched 07/20/11 - 607 da
55 AirbusA6: Ordering 200 of each isn't hedging your bets, it's gambling your life savings and house on red and black! Madness...
57 sirtoby: Current backlog of ceo at the end if February was 1878, not 2800.
58 solnabo: 234 A320s!! http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/...rbus-lionair-idUSBRE92H0B320130318 Congrats to Airbus & Lion Air
59 solnabo: SpiceJet may switch from B to A http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-0...rom-boeing-on-technology-cost.html Cheers
60 rheinwaldner: But in the Easyjet thread you said, that lack of availability on Airbus' side could be the reason why the MAX has a chance therethey could buy 737s a
61 Bthebest: 1878 is actually neo backlog, but looking in more detail (I used wiki before for a rough number but it clearly needs updating) the ceo backlog is act
62 TS-IOR: Are the CEOs ordered at a preferential price ?
63 EPA001: You are correct with this statement. But it is better to review the numbers after 5 years or so. And I guess that the engine choice which Airbus is o
64 Stitch: For those arguing that the A320neo is demonstrably superior to the 737MAX and the market is responding appropriately, why did airlines like American,
65 TheSultanOfWing: I think people responded more to your argument: In other words, the NEO wouldn't sell to these airlines if it weren't for the financing and quicker a
66 a380900: On a side note: are the NEO and the MAX getting new avionics? I guess they should be... HUDs?
67 Stitch: Let's discuss that argument, shall we? My argument mentioned two specific Airbus deals - American Airlines and Lion Air. Let us first discuss America
68 excalibur: First, congrats for Airbus, outstanding order! I would like to say that sometimes people here should relax a little bit more and enjoy our common pass
69 astuteman: I think availability may not universally be an issue, but i'm pretty sure its a factor in a lot of cases. The -MAX debuts some 18 months to 2 years a
71 sturmovik: Maybe Le Bourget organizers should check with Leahy before scheduling the next one ..
72 KarelXWB: Also, keep in mind that the Max design has not been frozen yet. Some customers may want to wait for this until signing an order.
73 lightsaber: Ghad, three large NEO orders and no certainty on the engines! I expect so too... (I'm a Pratt fan.) And others have switched A to B. Airbus has a two
74 KarelXWB: To celebrate this order Airbus painted their A321 sharklet testbed in the Lion Air livery.
75 817Dreamliiner: Wow... Well I did not see that coming.... Interesting, nice find karel!
76 mariner: Yes, perhaps, to all those things, but they are fairly constant with any order. Airbus could meet the delivery schedule? That's going to affect an ai
77 ferpe: Re the bickering of Airbus vs Boeing I think we all shall be glad that the growing Asia places all these orders with us, the "old world" (I include Eu
78 Stitch: I think it is worth a mention within the context of two customers with large Boeing narrowbody fleets that they continued to add to for years now dec
80 mariner: As I tried to point out, I'm sure those issues - one or all of them - did play a role. All manner of things play a role. It is said that the Republic
81 planesmart: Where aircraft financing is concerned, there seems to be an over-simplification by some contributors. Commercial aircraft financing isn't limited to t
82 goosebayguy: All these airlines ordering hundreds of aircraft booking up production lines far into the future leads me to think there might be a business in sellin
83 Alpage: It seems that Airbus will roll over Boeing in Le Bourget as it did the last time in 2011.
84 Stitch: DL and FR have done that in the past - something Boeing now seems to be explicitly restricting in their new deals.
85 LJ: Remember that Airbus has an order for 67 A320s from Kingfisher/Kingfisher Red which won't be delivered. Thus they have 67 slots extra. There was unti
86 travelavnut: So I might becoming a bit senile being 30+ and all, but euhmm, watching the Airbus video linked below I noticed chevrons on the engine at 0:16 second
87 KarelXWB: Well spotted. I have no idea why Airbus did this, the plane should not have it: http://www.flickr.com/photos/florent...8551669427/sizes/o/in/photostr
88 starbucks: Some do have it.... Aeroflot Saudia Air France Come to mind And the photo you linked is a V2500 A321, that one doesn't have chevrons
89 mariner: Given that Lion already has a big Boeing order, it is also possible that Lion did not want to be entirely beholden to one manufacturer. I could wish
90 KarelXWB: You are right, there are 2 A321 sharklet testbeds (MSN 5470 & MSN 5295).
91 Aesma: You've got to love all that gold paint !
92 A342: LH is likely to choose PW again, and while no official engine selection for the TK order has been announced, Airbus might be giving us a hint with th
93 Hamlet69: As usual, spot on, astuteman. Couldn't have put it better myself! IMO we are seeing the near-identicality of the current NB's continued into this new
94 FlyingAY: However, if we add them both together, we get: 737NG + MAX: 1117 + 1184 = 2301 (46,7%) A320ceo + NEO: 750 + 1878 = 2628 (53,3%) So during the three y
95 seahawk: LEAP-X seems logical, should they go PW though, I think it would be an indication on engine quality. My gut feeling says they could go PW.
96 neutrino: My guess is the GTF which will reflect their now preference for two different suppliers; possibly to hedge their bets. Most folks on here do have a p
97 sturmovik: I think I read an article where Leahy stated that the target for the year remains unchanged at around 700 despite the recent mega orders, and he's al
98 KarelXWB: Almost halfway? He already has 600 net orders.
99 lightsaber: There is no doubt that F9 received a great deal and Airbus has their A319 launch customer. While I am still not a fan of the A319NEO nor -7MAX, I und
100 r2rho: AFAIK this has already been reached, or at least the target was to reach it by end of 2012. Apart from the EIS difference, I also see a production rat
101 neutrino: But annual production for A & B are X11 & X12 respectively, so that narrows the difference quite a bit. That being the case, allow me to modi
102 PW100: And there is all there is to say for the A vs B NB battle. One thing I might add. Considering that * both manufacturers are in the comfortable positi
103 Pihero: Is that wishful thinking or fact ? The 11 months production per annum, for Airbus is another A.net myth. Think that the 2012 total output was 455 fra
104 mandala499: It isn't actually... 737-900ERs 2007-2010 is set to be replaced 2014-2017, that'll be about 40 or so. 737-900ERs 2010-2012 is set to be replaced 2017
105 OzGlobal: Nonsense. This is just standard procurement good practice: a two supplier strategy to maintain leverage in future.
106 AeroWesty: What is Lion doing to those airframes which make them last only seven years, instead of simply doing a cabin refresh?
107 EPA001: Beside what you already wrote further down in your post, is there a special reason that they will need to be replaced that soon? As it always is and
108 mandala499: Nothing wrong in the cabin actually... Lion originally only planned to keep them for 5 years before putting them on the used market. Whilst there has
109 EPA001: OK. That all explains a lot. Do you know if they have improved their handling of the aircraft? Or has it also something to do with the infrastructure
110 r2rho: Actually, Airbus started 2012 producing stated 40/month, and ended the year producing 42. Let's assume 41 average. 41 x 11 = 451 which pretty much ma
111 Pihero: News to me : Source, please as my figures are Airbus.
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