lebb757 From United States of America, joined Apr 2013, 9 posts, RR: 0 Posted (2 years 4 months 3 weeks 6 days 11 hours ago) and read 5140 times:
Hi folks! I'm new to airliners.net so I wanted to post this question that has intrigued me since the last 2 years i have been into aviation. It seems like for now both manufacturers are spending their engineering resources on 737MAX/320NEO/77X and the several variants of the b787 and a350. Allright... these designs, let alone older versions of the 737, 320 or 777, are already pretty familiar to us. So basically, my question is: is there any plan for a new airplane once all these models start being delivered?? Any airbus 360 or boeing 797? I was once excited about the boeing yellowstone program and the possibility of new clean sheet revolutionary futuristic designs. However, we are apparantly stuck into the tube/wing concept.
AA737-823 From United States of America, joined Mar 2000, 6130 posts, RR: 10
Reply 1, posted (2 years 4 months 3 weeks 6 days 10 hours ago) and read 5042 times:
Welcome to a.net.
After the 737MAX engineering is completed, look for Boeing to move into increasing R&D for the 737 replacement aircraft, which I predict will enter service in the 2025 timeframe. While the MAX will be a successful aircraft, I don't think it will be as long-lived as the NG has been.
Ditto the A320NEO and whatever comes after it.
As far as widebodies go, the 787-10 and 777X will consume all of Boeing's attention for the foreseeable future. There will be no further widebody development at Boeing for twenty years, if you ask me.
For Airbus, the A350 should carry them through the next 15 years. We've reached a point at which aerospace development is at an odd place: the big changes that are left are unappealing (blended wing-body, bleedless airframe, etc), which leaves just minor step changes in engine and aerodynamic efficiency. If you look at the 787, which is the most efficient airframe Boeing is capable of producing in its size class, you see that we're just about at the pinnacle of where we can go in that field.
So, all that to say, the next changes will either be material advances (composites, a la 787 and A350), or continued improvement in engine design.
Quoting lebb757 (Thread starter): I was once excited about the boeing yellowstone program and the possibility of new clean sheet revolutionary futuristic designs. However, we are apparantly stuck into the tube/wing concept.
Yep. While the futuristic stuff (like EasyJet's proposed unducted fan narrowbody) is exciting, we're locked into more and more of what we've already got. Until SOMEONE gets REALLY BRAVE!
planemaker From Tuvalu, joined Aug 2003, 6702 posts, RR: 34
Reply 2, posted (2 years 4 months 3 weeks 6 days 7 hours ago) and read 4805 times:
Quoting AA737-823 (Reply 1): We've reached a point at which aerospace development is at an odd place: the big changes that are left are unappealing (blended wing-body, bleedless airframe, etc), which leaves just minor step changes in engine and aerodynamic efficiency.
As you note, there will indeed be minor step changes over time but they will add up to a significant improvements. The PW1000G has a healthy upgrade path, for example, which PW believes matches the open rotor but without the drawbacks. Likewise there is an upgrade path for 2nd and 3rd gen composites.
There are also several other issues that impact commercial aviation that are evolving and which impact aircraft development.
IMO, I don't anticipate an all-new narrow body from A or B before 2030.
Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
flyglobal From Germany, joined Mar 2008, 642 posts, RR: 3
Reply 3, posted (2 years 4 months 3 weeks 6 days 6 hours ago) and read 4673 times:
Boeing: after the MAX/ 777x/ 787-10 I assume that Boeing will concentrate on a real 737 successor plane.
I expect the 737 successor plan to be a 'multi Purpose Plane concept containing a body with 7 or 8 abrest which will not be a direct 737 successor, but a plane that will be between the 737 Max and the 787.
I also expect a double wing strategy, one tuned for short haul and one for Trans Con (at least Europe to east coast).
The current 737 will be continued (probably with some PIPs) until the 797 (my title for the new 'narrow' body) is designed.
A new real narrow body then may need to be designed, or Boeing teams up with Bombardier or Embraer for a joint venture or license.
I have No predictions of Boeing's further wide Body strategy after the 777x yet. (others may have and may bring Y3 into the game)
Airbus next will be to do an update of the A380: introducing the A380-900 and new engines of latest technology for the 800 and 900. In addition some weight tuning. EIS around 2020/ 2021.
Then Airbus will work on a further 'stretched' 350 - the 1100 or 1200 putting it direct against the 777x. EIS 2022.
In addition there will be the A350 Freighter also around 2020.
For the narrow body successors, I expect that the current A320 could well be modified with next generation engines, maybe including more or less body refinements (weight and wing mod). EIS around 2023.
Then Airbus will compete with Boeing's new 797 and do a similar modular 'small wide body' concept putting it between A320 and A350. This will be a modular concept of body variations and Wing/ engine variations targeting the short haul and Medium haul markets. (medium haul compete with Boeing's 797 -medium hail trans Atlantic/ larger wing version).
Airbus also may be intersted in Joint ventures and team up with Embraer or Bombardier /C-series) to extend the portfolio.
Variants starting beeing introduced from 2025 (maybe with the medium haul larger wing version) and family variants then be availeble until 2030.