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National Air Cargo B744 Down In Bagram Part 2  
User currently offlinejetblueguy22 From United States of America, joined Nov 2007, 2798 posts, RR: 4
Posted (1 year 4 months 3 weeks 1 day 5 hours ago) and read 54477 times:
AIRLINERS.NET CREW
HEAD MODERATOR

Greetings everyone,
The last thread was getting pretty long so Part 2 is being created. The previous thread can be found here National Air Cargo B744 Down In Bagram (by Gonzalo Apr 29 2013 in Civil Aviation) .
Regards,
Pat


You push down on that yoke, the houses get bigger, you pull back on the yoke, the houses get bigger- Ken Foltz
220 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlinerfields5421 From United States of America, joined Jul 2007, 7607 posts, RR: 31
Reply 1, posted (1 year 4 months 3 weeks 1 day 5 hours ago) and read 54616 times:

I don't know if this made it on the older thread.

Quoting zeke (Reply 273):
I see no reason why these vehicles could not have been returned back to the US via sea transport. That is how most of them arrive in country.

A surprisingly large percentage of the vehicles used in Afghanistan were flown in - though in relatively short hops from Muscat and Oman.

There are two land routes into Afghanistan - from the seaports of Pakistan on the southeast side of Afghanistan.

Unfortunately, this route is subject to closures - and weapons have never been allowed on this route. Those vehicles might be considered weapons.

(Munitions - bullets and bombs - are all flown into the country - usually from ports in the Gulf)

The route for many vehicles would usually include being shipped to Riga Latvia on the Baltic Sea - then a 3,212 mile train route in Russia then thru Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan to Termez.

Another route is from Poti, Georgia on the Black Sea by rail to Baku, Azerbaijan - by barge across the Caspian Sea - and then by rail through Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan to Termez. (About 1/3 of the cargo for NATO forces in Afghanistan went this way in 2010 - the rest by the Baltic Sea routes.)

There have been difficulties in Uzbekistan so an alternate for the Baltic route was developed from Kazakhstan thru Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.

Once the vehicles get to Termez - they have to be loaded on trucks and driven through high mountian passes - including passing through a 1.5 mile long tunnel at 11,000 ft altitude about 30 miles north of Bagram.

-------------------------------------------------

Quoting zeke (Reply 284):
The idea solution would be to have a good runway/port in Gwadar on the coast that can be served by smaller regular transports.


Yes, but that isn't going to happen due to political issues. Pakistan is not going to allow weapons to be loaded/ offloaded at their ports/ airfields.

Quoting bikerthai (Reply 285):
Another reason is air shipping probably require less prep work than sea-shipping for vehicles.


The vehicles were only being flown to a nearby accessible seaport. Sea transport is how they will get back to the US.

[Edited 2013-05-02 11:40:10]

User currently offlinecanoecarrier From United States of America, joined Feb 2004, 2839 posts, RR: 12
Reply 2, posted (1 year 4 months 3 weeks 1 day 5 hours ago) and read 54352 times:

Someone asked in the other thread if the crash may have been caught on other cameras at the base. I have a friend that was stationed at a large base in Iraq and he mentioned there were cameras everywhere. There probably is other footage available to investigators, but as he said a lot of what is captured by those cameras is never released to the public by the military.

Quoting rfields5421 (Reply 1):
(Munitions - bullets and bombs - are all flown into the country - usually from ports in the Gulf)

The route for many vehicles would usually include being shipped to Riga Latvia on the Baltic Sea - then a 3,212 mile train route in Russia then thru Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan to Termez.

When the Pakistanis shut the PAKGLOC, or PAKistan Ground Lines of Communication down a couple years ago all non-lethal supplies and equipment came in either by air or through the Northern Distribution Network, or NDN. That route to my knowledge is open now. For comparison, in 2012 dollars, it cost $17,500/container to go the NDN route and $7,200/container to go the PAKGLOC route. An estimate last year was there are 120,000 containers to move. By sending some of the equipment to other seaports it may be reasonably cost effective, depending on the cargo, to get them shipped by air.

http://unnamedharald.hubpages.com/hub/NATO-The-Way-Out-of-Afghanistan#

Here's some graphics to support what you said Fields.

PAKGLOC routes into/out of Afghanistan:



NDN route through Latvia and out using the Russian rail network:




The beatings will continue until morale improves
User currently offlineGonzalo From Chile, joined Aug 2005, 1988 posts, RR: 2
Reply 3, posted (1 year 4 months 3 weeks 1 day 4 hours ago) and read 54023 times:

I think is adequate to include in the beggining of this thread the public statement made ( today in the morning ) by National Air Cargo ( posted by member Blueflyer in Reply 274 of Part 1 ) :

http://evaint.com/industry-news/statement-from-national-air-cargo


"National Air Cargo will not speculate as to the cause of the accident involving National Flight NCR102. With our full cooperation, an investigation by appropriate authorities is under way, and we encourage everyone to join us in respecting that process and allowing it to take its appropriate course.

Here are some facts regarding the aircraft and its movements prior to the accident:

-- National Flight NCR102 was en route to Dubai from Camp Bastian and had stopped to refuel at Bagram Air Base.

-- The cargo contained within the aircraft was properly loaded and secured, and had passed all necessary inspections prior to departing Camp Bastian.

-- The aircraft landed safely and uneventfully in Bagram.

-- No additional cargo or personnel was added during the stop in Bagram, and the aircraft's cargo was again inspected prior to departure. "



80 Knots...V1...Rotate...Gear Up...DC-3 / EMB-110 / Fairchild-227 / Ab318-19-20 / B732 / B763
User currently offlinegatorman96 From United States of America, joined Dec 2005, 873 posts, RR: 0
Reply 4, posted (1 year 4 months 3 weeks 1 day 4 hours ago) and read 53860 times:

Quoting rfields5421 (Reply 1):
A surprisingly large percentage of the vehicles used in Afghanistan were flown in - though in relatively short hops from Muscat and Oman.

Yep, and a surprisingly large percentage of vehicles (particularly MRAPs) will not be shipped home, but rather sold off to "friendly" CENTCOM nations or piled in scrap heaps at US bases...

Quoting Zeke:
I see no reson for that, the base whist US military run, is by no means a top secret base. A lot of civil traffic and people work there.

You give Bagram very little credit. I know plenty of defense contractors (civilians) there that hold top secret clearances and partake in top secret operations. Although there are Afghan nationals on the base at all times, they are not walking willy nilly around the airfield. The sensitive locations are tightly guarded by American forces.

I'm sure any pertinent videos will be released to the NTSB and to the Afghan CAA, but they will most likely not be released to the public. It is important to maintain operational security...



Cha brro
User currently offlineF9animal From United States of America, joined Dec 2004, 5054 posts, RR: 28
Reply 5, posted (1 year 4 months 3 weeks 1 day 4 hours ago) and read 53834 times:

Someone mentioned that a picture was frozen to say the gears appeared to be in the process of lowering. Is it possible that a hydraulic failure could make the gear doors drop down? Maybe a load shifted, and it could have damaged the hydraulic systems?


I Am A Different Animal!!
User currently offlinemoriarty From Sweden, joined Jan 2006, 186 posts, RR: 0
Reply 6, posted (1 year 4 months 3 weeks 1 day 3 hours ago) and read 53740 times:

In reply to jollo, Reply 268 in previous thread (part 1):

Exactly my point! I listed those crashes as example of what one might consider to come close but I think I missed to clearify that I do not think they do, pretty much due to the reasons you listed. So I totally agree. Spectacular as they might be on video, they are mostly quite unique.

However, I can add one reason this video is so horrifying: it is really, really close.

In reply to Gonzalo, Reply 251 in previous thread (part 1):
My bad! Sorry!



Proud to part of www.novelair.com.
User currently offlinetype-rated From United States of America, joined Sep 1999, 5036 posts, RR: 19
Reply 7, posted (1 year 4 months 3 weeks 1 day 3 hours ago) and read 53756 times:

If the load shifted and went through the rear pressure bulkhead it would not be out of the normal realm of thinking that they may have had a hydraulics failure during the accident sequence. There are hydraulic lines in that area.

But National said that the weight and balances were checked and everything was tied down properly. So what happened then?



Fly North Central Airlines..The route of the Northliners!
User currently offlinegatorman96 From United States of America, joined Dec 2005, 873 posts, RR: 0
Reply 8, posted (1 year 4 months 3 weeks 1 day 3 hours ago) and read 53565 times:

Quoting type-rated (Reply 7):
But National said that the weight and balances were checked and everything was tied down properly. So what happened then?

Nothing against National, but what else would they say? If there was a load shift, it will be next to impossible to prove what caused the MRAP to move out of its intended position...



Cha brro
User currently onlineStarlionblue From Greenland, joined Feb 2004, 17041 posts, RR: 66
Reply 9, posted (1 year 4 months 3 weeks 1 day 3 hours ago) and read 53553 times:

In reply to Bikerthai from previous thread:

Quoting Starlionblue (Reply 225):
The animation specifically says that a load shift may have tilted the aircraft skyward, which in turn may have caused the engines to stall.

Never heard of an engine stall. Heard of a compressor stall. Usually comes with lots of shakes, maybe smoke and flame shooting out the front and back. Are we talking about the same thing?

From the context, I do think they mean compressor stall, but then again I don't think they know what that is any more than they know the difference from an aerodynamic stall.

Heh. I see NMA News have made the video private.



"There are no stupid questions, but there are a lot of inquisitive idiots."
User currently offlineSilver1SWA From United States of America, joined Mar 2004, 4815 posts, RR: 25
Reply 10, posted (1 year 4 months 3 weeks 1 day 3 hours ago) and read 53399 times:
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Quoting type-rated (Reply 7):
But National said that the weight and balances were checked and everything was tied down properly. So what happened then?

Well to be clear, they said cargo was properly loaded and secured prior to departure from Camp Bastion. They were a little more careful with their wording regarding leaving Bagram, saying only that the load was inspected.



ALL views, opinions expressed are mine ONLY and are NOT representative of those shared by Southwest Airlines Co.
User currently offlineshufflemoomin From Denmark, joined Jun 2010, 480 posts, RR: 2
Reply 11, posted (1 year 4 months 3 weeks 1 day 3 hours ago) and read 53241 times:

Does anyone know what laws would apply here if it's discovered that a load shift was responsible? Would whoever inspected and signed off on the load before take off be facing jail time?

User currently offlinegatorman96 From United States of America, joined Dec 2005, 873 posts, RR: 0
Reply 12, posted (1 year 4 months 3 weeks 1 day 3 hours ago) and read 53191 times:

Quoting shufflemoomin (Reply 11):
Does anyone know what laws would apply here if it's discovered that a load shift was responsible? Would whoever inspected and signed off on the load before take off be facing jail time?

May not apply at all if the responsible person(s) were sadly aboard the ill-fated aircraft...

[Edited 2013-05-02 14:09:23]


Cha brro
User currently offline135mech From United States of America, joined Oct 2006, 412 posts, RR: 4
Reply 13, posted (1 year 4 months 3 weeks 1 day 3 hours ago) and read 53191 times:
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Quoting Silver1SWA (Reply 10):
Quoting type-rated (Reply 7):
But National said that the weight and balances were checked and everything was tied down properly. So what happened then?

Well to be clear, they said cargo was properly loaded and secured prior to departure from Camp Bastion. They were a little more careful with their wording regarding leaving Bagram, saying only that the load was inspected.

I saw that too! If this were (and hopefully soon we will know) a load shift, there are a variety of reasons it could have happened. As we know chains, straps, tie-downs, and all other "mechanical" securing devices can eventually crack and brack/tear; it's a part of "wear and tear', and most all of the time things like this are noticed/caught. However, if something broke on that last take off, it would truly be an accident (as defined)...

In some of our training, "accidents" are defined by percentages:
88% Human Error (no, I AM NOT claiming this for this event)
10% Truly Accidental - caused by wear and tear, breakage, etc
2% Natural Disaster/Effects

So, that's my itty-bit of input for the possibility of "wear and tear" as a "maybe" cause.

Regards,
135Mech


User currently offlinePlanesNTrains From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 5582 posts, RR: 28
Reply 14, posted (1 year 4 months 3 weeks 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 52882 times:

Quoting 135mech (Reply 13):
I saw that too! If this were (and hopefully soon we will know) a load shift, there are a variety of reasons it could have happened. As we know chains, straps, tie-downs, and all other "mechanical" securing devices can eventually crack and brack/tear; it's a part of "wear and tear', and most all of the time things like this are noticed/caught.

However, with the redundancies that are apparently involved with securing these loads, one strap/tie-down/etc failing would seem unlikely to this novice to cause the load to shift. However, I don't know what the interface is between the straps/tie-downs and the aircraft. Are there, say, 28 different attachment-points for 28 different straps, or would 6 straps feed into one, heavy-duty tied down? If that attachment point failed, then perhaps that would be enough to start the chain reaction?

-Dave



Next Trip: SEA-ABQ-SEA on Alaska
User currently offline135mech From United States of America, joined Oct 2006, 412 posts, RR: 4
Reply 15, posted (1 year 4 months 3 weeks 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 52795 times:
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Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 14):
However, with the redundancies that are apparently involved with securing these loads, one strap/tie-down/etc failing would seem unlikely to this novice to cause the load to shift. However, I don't know what the interface is between the straps/tie-downs and the aircraft. Are there, say, 28 different attachment-points for 28 different straps, or would 6 straps feed into one, heavy-duty tied down? If that attachment point failed, then perhaps that would be enough to start the chain reaction?

-Dave

Unfortunately we may never truly know what could have initiated a cargo shift, if that was what happened. But, one simple "link" starts the chain of events.

Once again.. R.I.P. to those involved.

135Mech

p.s. I agree with your next post also! (Reply 16).

[Edited 2013-05-02 15:33:23]

User currently offlinePlanesNTrains From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 5582 posts, RR: 28
Reply 16, posted (1 year 4 months 3 weeks 1 day 1 hour ago) and read 52637 times:

Quoting 135mech (Reply 15):
Unfortunately we may never truly know what could have initiated a cargo shift, if that was what happened. But, one simple "link" starts the chain of events.

It's hard to disagree with that assessment. However, if someone has better insight into the physical tie-down process/interface in a 744F, particularly for loads like these, that'd be interesting to understand better.

FWIW, I have in my head that it's likely a load shift, but if the aircraft was fine from Camp Bastion to Bagram, and nothing changed in Bagram, it seems like I need to perhaps open my own mind more to what other reasons there could be for what happened. Of course, I don't have a clue - not an industry guy - but something obviously went terribly wrong.

-Dave



Next Trip: SEA-ABQ-SEA on Alaska
User currently offlinebikerthai From United States of America, joined Apr 2010, 2131 posts, RR: 4
Reply 17, posted (1 year 4 months 3 weeks 1 day 1 hour ago) and read 52591 times:

Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 16):
but if the aircraft was fine from Camp Bastion to Bagram, and nothing changed in Bagram, it seems like I need to perhaps open my own mind more to what other reasons there could be for what happened.

If they came in to Bagram for fuel, perhaps they took off heavier (more fuel) than they did at Camp Bastion . . . how does that change their calculations?

bt



Intelligent seeks knowledge. Enlightened seeks wisdom.
User currently offlinegatorman96 From United States of America, joined Dec 2005, 873 posts, RR: 0
Reply 18, posted (1 year 4 months 3 weeks 1 day 1 hour ago) and read 52486 times:

PlanesNTrains, this photo gallery was posted somewhere in the previous thread:
http://www.automobilemag.com/feature..._vehicle_afghanistan/photo_32.html

It documents MRAPs being loaded into an Atlas Air 742F, the same type of MRAPs that were supposedly loaded into the National bird. This will at least give you an idea on how the vehicles are secured for transport...



Cha brro
User currently offlinePlanesNTrains From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 5582 posts, RR: 28
Reply 19, posted (1 year 4 months 3 weeks 1 day 1 hour ago) and read 52365 times:

Quoting gatorman96 (Reply 18):
PlanesNTrains, this photo gallery was posted somewhere in the previous thread:

Thanks - forgot about that in the first thread. So it seems that there are multiple tie down spots, but perhaps a weak spot on one of the vehicles, perhaps brought on by damage in use, could have created an opportunity for a shifted load?

Really no clue - hopefully others with more knowledge on the workings of these loads would have more insight. Not so much on this particular incident, but rather on the concept in general.

-Dave



Next Trip: SEA-ABQ-SEA on Alaska
User currently onlineStarlionblue From Greenland, joined Feb 2004, 17041 posts, RR: 66
Reply 20, posted (1 year 4 months 3 weeks 1 day ago) and read 52162 times:

Quoting bikerthai (Reply 17):
Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 16):
but if the aircraft was fine from Camp Bastion to Bagram, and nothing changed in Bagram, it seems like I need to perhaps open my own mind more to what other reasons there could be for what happened.

If they came in to Bagram for fuel, perhaps they took off heavier (more fuel) than they did at Camp Bastion . . . how does that change their calculations?

Two effects:
- Heavier aircraft, meaning higher rotation speed and lower vertical speed.
- CG shift. However apart from the stab tank all the fuel is quite close to the CG so the CG effect would not be very great.



"There are no stupid questions, but there are a lot of inquisitive idiots."
User currently offlineF9animal From United States of America, joined Dec 2004, 5054 posts, RR: 28
Reply 21, posted (1 year 4 months 3 weeks 23 hours ago) and read 51401 times:

So.... Lets say a MRAP somehow went through the pressure bulkhead, and severed hydraulics. Would severed hydraulics cause the landing gear doors to drop?


I Am A Different Animal!!
User currently offlineAirlineCritic From Finland, joined Mar 2009, 710 posts, RR: 1
Reply 22, posted (1 year 4 months 3 weeks 23 hours ago) and read 51162 times:

It is a very interesting development that no cargo was added in Bagram.

Still, if the take-off climb at Bagram was steeper than at the previous location, a cargo shift is still a possibility.

But maybe we have to consider other possibilities as well. Unbalanced re-fueling, to the wrong tanks? Too much fuel? Simple piloting error to attempt climbing too steeply? Something else, what?


User currently offlineTrnsWrld From United States of America, joined May 1999, 933 posts, RR: 0
Reply 23, posted (1 year 4 months 3 weeks 23 hours ago) and read 51152 times:

I have seen landing gear doors down mentioned a couple times. I paused the video just before impact and almost seemed like the nose gear doors were down, but I wasn't really sure. So has it been confirmed the doors were down or something else was going on like gear in transit?

User currently offlineAlnicocunife From United States of America, joined Mar 2011, 165 posts, RR: 0
Reply 24, posted (1 year 4 months 3 weeks 23 hours ago) and read 51031 times:

Quoting F9animal (Reply 21):
So.... Lets say a MRAP somehow went through the pressure bulkhead, and severed hydraulics. Would severed hydraulics cause the landing gear doors to drop?

My guess is the gear was never raised. They were most likely way too busy trying to get the plane to push over right after rotation.


25 wjcandee : I'm thinking it's either the obvious: load shift, OR it's something less-obvious, which might well be the case here. Who would have thunk that the AF
26 Yakflyer : Looks to me like the gear was never raised and was down at the point of impact.
27 Gonzalo : There is a ( short ) time between the moment the aircraft begins to fall and the moment they leveled the wings, with the aircraft in a 90 degrees ban
28 Starlionblue : Thunderstorms with light rain. However cumulonimbus at 5000 feet means any storms were probably rather higher off the ground than the plane got. The
29 rfields5421 : There is a note about the airport and weather reports on the Worldaerodata web site.
30 armitageshanks : How would a stall protected fly by wire aircraft responded to this? I know it would have crashed anyway but would it have reacted any differently to t
31 TrnsWrld : I know, I didn't say anything about the gear ever being up. I would agree that it was probably never retracted in the first place. What I was saying
32 zeke : I am aware of that, I go through that part of the world enough to see/hear them. I have never heard of them going over Iran, always east along the Gu
33 Starlionblue : Interesting question. If we assume that it was indeed a dramatic load shift towards the rear, the aircraft would have pitched up in the same way. Eve
34 zeke : FBW in itself does nothing, it just replaces cables, pulleys, bell cranks, rods etc from the control column to the control surface. It is the electro
35 fdxgirl : So I'm just curious then, if the load was inspected and secured at the originating place.....How often are the actual individual straps and whatnot ac
36 Flyer732 : 26 straps are used to tie down the MRAPs to the floor of the 747. The vehicle itself is on two pallets which are center loaded on the aircraft. The v
37 bueb0g : A lot of people... The iced pitot and crew induced stall was probably the number 1 theory, even before the CVR and FDR were found. Seeing as it looks
38 moriarty : Part from the video I've seen very few pics (a couple though) from the site. Anyone?
39 rfields5421 : But Bagram is in an active combat zone. It has experienced several attacks by people who cleared normal security procedures. Air shows and open house
40 soon7x7 : A runaway stab trim could have resulted in the same outcome. It has happened.
41 76er : The 744 has an automatic cut out system that shuts off hydrolic power to the stabilizer whenever unscheduled trim occurs. The same thing happens when
42 zeke : Yep, I believe all that, however we are talking about the perimeter, runways, and flight line here, those cameras would be relatively open access are
43 Navigator : Check this out for other possibilities: "TIA was involved in a single fatal accident, involving a Douglas DC-8 N8963T ferry flight, with eight flight
44 sankaps : Most accidents caused by wear& tear / mechanical failure can be described similarly -- aircraft flew fine, completed its previous fight fine, unt
45 PHX787 : Anyone have any updates on if N8 is still operating?
46 Post contains links AeroWesty : Why wouldn't it be? http://www.nationalairlines.aero/
47 ATCtower : Someone will surely correct me if I am wrong but in instances like this, yes the PIC is ultimately responsible for the operation of the A/C. This wou
48 PHX787 : Well they only had 3 744fs......Losing one could be a gigantic drawback
49 windy95 : No That is what it looks like.
50 windy95 : Length of runway and field altitude at Camp Bastion could be the reason for limiting the takeoff weight of the Aircraft. No it would not. But the gea
51 SEPilot : Seeing as how the plane successfully flew a leg with the same cargo, I think the most likely cause of this crash was that something broke; probably so
52 Kaiarahi : Length 11,500ft. Elevation 2,800ft. Roughly the same length as DEN at half the elevation.
53 PlanesNTrains : Great explanation and description - thank you! Sure, which is why I asked for the above description. I was wondering if any one failure point would b
54 737tdi : This accident and causes behind it have been brought up a couple of times. Remember that the DC-8 does not have powered elevators, it is operated onl
55 packsonflight : The normal route for this flight is Bastion Bagram and then back to Dubai, It does not really matter where the cargo is mostly to or from one or both
56 Flyer732 : Final authority of the loading of the aircraft comes down to the loadmaster. Most of the PICs I've worked with wouldn't know the first thing about ca
57 bueb0g : While it's obviously true that, in practice loadmasters carry this authority, the point others are making is that legally it IS the PIC's responsibil
58 hivue : Perhaps all of these plus the original CG on departure from Camp Bastion maybe being WNL but marginal? Plus (as others have pointed out) some cargo m
59 Silver1SWA : My uncle works for FedEx at SEA and he always told me that as a loadmaster, if a plane goes down and the cause is related to the load and loading pro
60 Flyer732 : The weight and balance paperwork simply has the cargo weight in each individual position. The flight crew would have no way of knowing if the weight
61 bueb0g : That's exactly what I said.
62 Pihero : Please" remove : double post[Edited 2013-05-03 12:25:58]
63 Pihero : These are still early days andwe don't have much in terms of facts. What we can see from the video is that the pilot fought very hard to maintain cont
64 BMI727 : From an investigative standpoint, what sort of smoking gun would there be for a load shift? Obviously all of the cargo is going to have come loose and
65 rfields5421 : There is a lot they can tell from the FDR data and the CVR data. Even after such a fire, the NTSB can likely find impact points within the aircraft i
66 awthompson : You are indeed correct. I can now quite clearly see (full) left rudder deflection. On first views of the video I was intrigued as to how quickly the
67 rcair1 : From Thread 1 - I also observed this. Watching the video - the part where the a/c appears to be at a very high AOA is from nearly directly below and a
68 LTC8K6 : I have no experience here, but reading Pihero's post and watching the vid again, it almost seems to me like they actually recovered from what happened
69 Gonzalo : I saw that statement too, but the one I saw was part of the AvHerald initial report, and now was edited to this : "Several observers on the ground re
70 United727 : And He is DEAD! Along with the loadmaster, so what's the point of everyone on here continuing to point this out? Where did you see this information,
71 Silver1SWA : Did you miss the part earlier in the thread where someone asked how this kind of thing is generally handled?! So point is, someone asked a question a
72 my235 : Why hasn't the fact that according to an unconfirmed claim, a crew member was heard on VHF air-band radio reporting that some of the load of five heav
73 Post contains images cjg225 : Wouldn't that make it not a "fact" then?
74 Starlionblue : You can't lump AA587 in there. That plane had no underlying issues like the other three. The rudder snapped due to improper handling in wake turbulen
75 zeke : Which makes me still think cargo was offloaded there, those sort of milk run contracts are used to get normal supplies to places like food. If they h
76 Silver1SWA : Again, if a plane goes down, the lead loading agent who signed the paperwork will be held liable if there was a discrepancy or failure in their job d
77 BMI727 : That's possible. I forgot about that. That's what I was thinking as far as there possibly being no smoking gun but only a circumstantial case. If all
78 Starlionblue : There are ways to tell how a component failed even after a crash. For example if it sheared consistent with being pulled by the strap/chain, if it wa
79 Post contains links zeke : Have a look at FAR 91.3 and 121.537. Please not this was a cargo only supplemental operation, not a domestic or flag (and not even supplemental passe
80 Post contains images ATCtower : Thank you for confirming this. Around here, posting something you are only 99% sure of is sure to get you flamed There is a BIG difference between sp
81 Silver1SWA : You shot down a comment I made regarding input from a passenger flight perspective as it pertained to the original question asked about who would be
82 liquidair : What would happen to an aircraft this heavy, if the thrust cut during such a steep climb? Would it stall like this or would you expect a different rea
83 Starlionblue : Assuming a sudden loss of all engines and no load shift... The important thing to remember is that due to inertia the aircraft has a lot of momentum.
84 Pihero : I tend to afree with you here. That's a very intriguing start of a bad scenario : could they have missed on the balance sheet the off-loading of that
85 Post contains links flyingturtle : Electron microscopy of the surfaces should answer many of these questions. The crash fire weakens and softens the metal, leading to other fracture su
86 ltbewr : I am concerned about how much we will publicly learn about this crash investigation. While this crash involved an a/c owned and operated by a private
87 Flyer732 : I've been a cargo loadmaster for 9 years, including many on the 747-400F. I've never had a PIC who has known how to do a load plan, on a pure freight
88 Post contains links PHX787 : I thought this was from the AvHerald article. I'll check: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Airlines_%28N8%29 Actually, now they only have TWO 74
89 rfields5421 : I've read past BEA and NTSB reports where they were quickly able to determine which direction such locks broke. i.e. locks breaking because of pressu
90 Gonzalo : The international regulations should be applied and the Afghan Authorities should release for public domain ( with the assistance of NTSB, Boeing and
91 Gonzalo : True. TWA 800 was / is surrounded by all sort of conspiracy theories, but the findings of how the fuel tank exploded and the way the metal changed it
92 7BOEING7 : On a normal all engine takeoff, speed will be between V2+10 and V2+25. If it's a steep climb he'll be closer to V2+10. If all engines quit the nose w
93 BMI727 : Asked and answered then. Thanks.
94 Starlionblue : I don't fly the big iron but I don't see how why a pilot wouldn't try to hold best glide if all engines quit. Keeping his speed up in order to contro
95 7BOEING7 : Seriously, put in that situation I don't think 1 out of a million 737 and up drivers would have any idea what the best glide speed is. With almost ev
96 Starlionblue : Put in the situation we saw in the video, you are quite right. However I was answering a question about a hypothetical where all engines quit and no
97 suseJ772 : I am pretty sure every pilot with any pilots license - especially type rated - will know what his aircrafts best glide is. Even if he doesn't know th
98 suseJ772 : I miss SlamClick. I learned a lot from the two of you. You two make up one third of my respected user list.
99 7BOEING7 : Assuming he was above stall speed, in the configuration he was in, with the hypothetical all engines out, I'm guessing he had less than 30 seconds un
100 Post contains images comorin : So cool to have a real test pilot post here! Thanks for your explanations. The consensus on a.net seems to be that this was an unrecoverable upset?
101 billreid : Could someone please help with a question. If the Acft had a dramatic shift in weight to the rear and stalled how would the pilot be able to recover a
102 Silver1SWA : I did not see a recovery. We are in a world now where we are able to see video of catastrophic events unfolding, giving is a glimpse of things for th
103 flyingturtle : The very same physics applies here. As another a.net member famously said on Airbuses during the AF447 threads: "There is no Alternate Law in physics
104 737tdi : If a weight/load shift is the case, the crew would still have the ability to affect the attitude of the aircraft. It's not like the aircraft had lost
105 Post contains links LTC8K6 : How much room is left over for the M-ATV's to shift? Each one is about 20 feet long. 5 would be 100 feet long if there was no space between each. Six
106 Starlionblue : Very interesting thx. After thinking about it, I agree that best glide is perhaps not the most important if you don't care about distance. If I survi
107 ATCtower : No offense but do you even know what an airplane is? Merely exceeding load capacity for certain sections of even smaller aircraft can render things l
108 suseJ772 : Thank you for this. I would have assumed based on the 767/330 incidents that the procedure was basically the same. This definitely educated me on som
109 737tdi : Buddy, I have been working on and flying airplanes for over 30 years. Yes, I think I know what an airplane is. Read the post I was replying to. Yes a
110 HPRamper : At Fedex, yes, that is the reason for the load verification process. The pilot cannot physically check his own load due to the nature of ULD use. He
111 cbphoto : This is 100% not true at all. If you have a large CG shift due to cargo breaking loose, you will never regain control of the aircraft as the CG will
112 Post contains links Gonzalo : A Memorial Site has been created to support the families of the crew : http://www.ncr102.org/ Rgds. Moderators, this Memorial site is open to donation
113 suseJ772 : My thoughts exactly. My understanding was that once you lose the CG tail heavy like that, and essentially start falling "backwards" you of course sti
114 airtran737 : On a BCF you can't load the vehicles in positions A1, A2, B1, CL/R. DL/R, EL/R or T. This means that there will be one centerloaded in FG, GH, HJK, K
115 Silver1SWA : I don't think the "pilot got the nose down". To me it looks like a stall leading to the aircraft just falling out of the sky. I'm no expert, but sinc
116 spacecadet : If you look carefully at the video, it does not appear that the nose simply lowered. In fact, the aircraft seemed to fall on its side in about a 90 d
117 LTC8K6 : Could they have dragged the tail? Would we be able to tell? I was thinking that if the cargo was already loose, it would shift right at rotation, and
118 Pihero : 1/-The first frames show the airplane climbing and a continuously dropping **left** wing. 2/- There is a definite pilot action : a yawing movement to
119 LTC8K6 : Yes, the barn doors are definitely open. The number of things I didn't realize at first view of the video is growing. How long does it take to raise o
120 Post contains links Gonzalo : Another video ( POST Crash ,taken from Bagram Airbase ) shows the black smoke moving fast towards the base. Looking at the smoke, the US flag and the
121 billreid : This was my question. It appears a stall occurs where all forward flight is lost. The aircraft appears to lose all inertia and comes to almost a full
122 rickabone : Bingo
123 F9animal : I dont think they could have dragged the tail. The impact alone tells me they did not have enough airspeed to slow the descent. One thing that cant be
124 cbphoto : You might be trying to read the stall too much. First things first, if the cargo is loose in the back, what is stopping it from rolling forward once
125 Pihero : So what's - where is ? - the *next* fulcrum or pivot point ? We are now dealing with a static situation : the CoG hasn't changed... and aerodyn&m
126 Western727 : Concur. Gear definitely appears to have been in transit. I would normally expect to see the backwards-slung wing MLG bogeys prominent just before imp
127 Starlionblue : Here's an experiment regarding aft CG. - Take a model airplane. Balsa will do. Notice how the CG is forward of the center of lift. - Attach a weight t
128 737tdi : See, I quoted you and no one has any idea of what was said before. I never ever said anything about this crash in my explanation of a stall. This is
129 Pihero : There is no need for that sort of aggressiveness. And this is not - as cbphoto remarked - in any way a classical stall event. Why ? We can assume tha
130 LTC8K6 : NAC said that it was a fuel stop only. No cargo was added. Cargo was inspected. They didn't say no cargo was removed, but I think that's implied. How
131 Post contains images cbphoto : After reviewing the tape a few more times, it appears you are correct, the gear does seem to be in transit at the time of impact. This is something t
132 Post contains images Pihero : Otherwise the stop makes no sense. It's possible but they needed not much fuel for the trip and, if the aircraft hasn't been modified by Boeing, the
133 airtran737 : It was most likely a permit issue. That corner of the world is a bit anal about you coming from and going to where your permit says. AMC may have cha
134 hivue : How is it that a stop that both delivers some cargo and also takes on fuel makes no sense?
135 Pihero : It's the **this was only a fuel stop** that made no sense, although, with airtran737 # 133, a question of permit and military cargo could be an expla
136 Post contains images Silver1SWA : I thought to try this as well.[Edited 2013-05-07 08:28:20]
137 76er : Regarding the tail tank, AFAIK BCF's and BDSF's have it deactivated. As a 744 pilot myself, I have a very hard time believing the gear extension theor
138 spacecadet : Gravity is not the only force at work here. Airflow and lift (in varying degrees throughout the event) are also in play. Gravity does not change, but
139 rfields5421 : Another reason to stop at Bagram is if the direct route to the Gulf destination was closed due to military air activity. This is an active war zone,
140 GentFromAlaska : The authorities will also be looking at sandstorms or any combination of sand and humidity. The weather report a pilot or military aircraft commander
141 LTC8K6 : Okay, it flew from Châteauroux to Bastion. Picked up and inspected cargo at Bastion. Did not/could not refuel at Bastion. Had to fly to Bagram to ref
142 Pihero : Problem is that your theory doesn't hold much water : the study of all the forces applied to an aircraft are relative to the CoG. Nothing else. In th
143 Post contains links flyingturtle : It is now clear which organization is conducting the investigation? NTSB, the USAF, the Afghanistan Air Force (if they have any)... Google didn't turn
144 Gonzalo : Hi David. My understanding is that the Afghan M of Transport will lead the investigation with the support of the NTSB, Boeing, NAC and the Engine's ma
145 Kaiarahi : Actually, the country of registration has the right to participate (although it's not the lead).
146 KarelXWB : Perhaps the crew thought they could crash-land the plane? From some Mayday episodes I learned that pilots sometimes lower the landing gear because it
147 kanban : what is the possibility one or all the crew became incapacitated either from something they ate or stowaway inflicted?
148 trex8 : I could see an intruder in the cockpit or someone on the plane sabotaging it being a problem. I cant see the entire crew all getting food poisoning t
149 Post contains images dtw9 : This was sent to me last week. Not much left
150 okie : I keep waiting for other explanations. I as well tried to throw that out the CoG issue to see what else could cause the problem. Mis-trim and runaway
151 Gonzalo : Uffff..... after the video of the plane crashing and this picture I can say without a doubt that this is one of the most heartbreaking threads I can
152 kanban : not the whole crew, but the pilot or FO would be sufficient .. or a fight where someone was clinging to the wheel while others attempted to remove th
153 ATCtower : You're going to need to explain how even this theory could lead to the crash.... Food poisoning alone simply could not cause something like this... T
154 moriarty : Pic as scary as vid. Any official or near official words on the events yet? I haven't found any and guess it's too early. Still...
155 LTC8K6 : Would there really be that little left, or have they begun to clean the area up?
156 LTC8K6 : I don't see any sign of catastrophic trouble at the rear of the plane, though. No smoke or fluid. The resolution is low, but it seems like we would s
157 dtw9 : I received the picture on May 9th so I would doubt that clean up would have begun yet. If it had, you would think that they would clear the road firs
158 LTC8K6 : It just looks a little odd. No wing impact marks, or engine impact marks. Maybe it's the resolution? Then again, they would probably be further back,
159 76er : Regarding the APU, it is normally shut down after the engines have started. On some 744 versions there is an APU-to-pack takeoff procedure that can be
160 rfields5421 : It looks to me like a pretty substantial crater near 200 feet long, 60-80 feet wide and five to eight feet deep. The photo looks like a lot of aerial
161 CALTECH : Hearing from military brothers that National used straps to tie down these heavy vehicles, whereas the military use chains. Something that will be loo
162 Post contains links Gonzalo : Hi Caltech, I don't have any proof about the NAC crew(s) using straps, but I think the fact that the FAA just released a SAFO on May 17, precisely abo
163 Post contains links LTC8K6 : This: http://www.386aew.afcent.af.mil/shar...todb/photos/080208-F-9876D-146.jpg Vs this: http://image.automobilemag.com/f/fea...tary_vehicle%2Bin_an_a
164 Post contains links and images CALTECH : Rumored it was so, have to wait for the investigation findings. Yes. Problem is with straps going over sharp edges while under tension. http://www.fl
165 sancho99504 : You know, if they truly secured those MRAP's like that, somebody needs to be shot immediately. From personal experience in dealing with securing load
166 MD11Engineer : Cargo 747-400 don´t have a stab tank. The 747 has a sensor (actually a pressure switch) on the nose gear strut, which should give an alert ("Green b
167 fxra : I think the biggest difference, especially form the pictures and own personal experience with plane loads, that allows for the use of straps versus c
168 wjcandee : The FAA SAFO certainly provides a roadmap as to what could have happened based on what was considered. The bit about not mixing materials and not mixi
169 Post contains links flyingturtle : Reminds me of the reason why we climbers use self-equalizing anchors: http://ffden-2.phys.uaf.edu/211_fall....web.dir/Samantha_Davis/page3.html For a
170 GARUDAROD : One thing i notice in those last photos, there is no shoring across the pallets to spread the load. You are supposed to use at least 4 x 4's laid all
171 dtw9 : Received another E-mail today. There were seven MRAP's on board and load shift is being focused on. There is more troubling information in the E-mail
172 okie : That would sort of indicate something went through the bulkhead and damaged electrical? Okie
173 LTC8K6 : Hmmm...I remember reading that 6 was the max on a 744F and I remember a story about how Atlas had managed to get another one in to make 6 instead of
174 dtw9 : Oops. Misread that part of the E-mail, it does say 5 were carried.
175 wjcandee : It was World that got six on there, instead of five.. Of course, "MRAP" is a term that describes a number of vehicles, each of which is different as t
176 wjcandee : It would be interesting to have a little more color on this. Plainly they still had radio communication, and therefore some electrical power, if the
177 Post contains images Gonzalo : Source ? Just kidding In the case this information about the recorders is accurate, it is very disturbing information ... What can cause this abrupt
178 CALTECH : Rumors are that there were some radio VHF transmissions, with reference to cargo shift. May they Rest In Peace. Heard there were 5 on board also.
179 bikerthai : Can someone tell us where exactly the recorders would have been located? bt
180 LTC8K6 : I believe they were Oshkosh M-ATV's, though I cannot find a source for that at the moment. That's the vehicle that has been associated with these fli
181 LTC8K6 : They are usually in the tail. The theory being that an MRAP rolled back, smashing into the rear area, and doing damage to the recorders or their powe
182 Post contains links LTC8K6 : Yes, it was indeed World that upped the ante to 6. http://www.armybase.us/2010/03/world...istan-aboard-boeing-747-freighter/
183 richierich : Ironically, the National Cargo crash plane was a former AF 744. Of course this means nothing. I thought that too. Honestly, I think National's press
184 Post contains links LTC8K6 : http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/5...o-crash-bagram-18.html#post7824864 There is a post which shows the method of tie down used, apparently. Two pal
185 sancho99504 : Yes sir, I understand what you are saying. I do have experience loading freighters as well as loading equipment onto C-17's and C-130's. You are abso
186 Post contains images F9animal : If the cause of this crash leads to a shift in cargo, would it be safe to say the crew did not die for nothing? I mean, I assume new requirements will
187 bikerthai : Is this specifically for the 747. I know that for the 737, the recorder is above the ceiling in the aft section. So depending on where "in the tail"
188 135mech : It could be that said shift could have just severed the electrical lines to the FDR/DVR (which would run along the body from the batteries), but don'
189 Post contains links and images CALTECH : Internal batteries are for the locator beacon. Think of the data cable that has to run back to the recorders so they have something to record, and th
190 Post contains links bikerthai : Found a photo of KLM data recorder location. http://media.nowpublic.net/images/36...d32a6c08b98b2ce8b9a6a443aed4d3.jpg If this is the same location fo
191 wjcandee : For the poster that asked, you don't want the FDR and CVR to have internal batteries b/c of the danger that they would run on after the incident, and
192 4holer : Of course, then the next question is if that battery would be Lithium ion. With storage media now so compact, is it absurd to suggest that there woul
193 LTC8K6 : Some newer planes also have a QAR, Quick Access Recorder in addition. BA038 G-YMMM for instance. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quick_access_recorder
194 Post contains links LTC8K6 : Well, exactly where in the tail they are located can vary, but the theory is that in the back of the plane, they will have the most chance of surviva
195 AirlineCritic : Would a very hard tail strike be able to do this? Or, if bikerthai's post (#190) is right, if the recorders are at the side, and cabling runs in the
196 bikerthai : From the photo, looks like the data recorder is aft of the aft door, about 8-9 ft high. They are the red modules. Looks like the wiring comes in from
197 Post contains links Gonzalo : Try here : http://www.flickr.com/photos/viktori.../214259750/sizes/o/in/photostream/ Rgds. G.
198 LTC8K6 : Keep in mind that an M-ATV weighs around 28,000 pounds and is heavily armored. So if it gets rolling, it will be quite a battering ram.
199 bikerthai : Thanks, Looks like those red boxes are the recorders alright. Looks like they are mounted on standard trays with dagger pins and hold-down knobs. Wir
200 rcair1 : I'm sorry to say but, No. Unfortunately, if this was caused by load shift - I think they did die for nothing. It should never have happened. This is
201 SEPilot : You overlook the fact that EVERYTHING in an aircraft has to be certified, which takes a lot of time and money. Once it is certified it usually does n
202 cmb56 : The recorders on the 747 are located on a shelf forward of the aft pressure bulkhead on the left side. They are about 7 feet off the floor, just a lit
203 SEPilot : If it is true that the recorders stopped working at rotation, I have difficulty imagining anything other than a vehicle coming loose causing it. They
204 awthompson : CVR stopped working, straps in use, destruction by fire etc etc.................. I will speculate that the precise cause will never be known, never m
205 Gonzalo : Wouldn't be the first time.... there are a bunch of accidents where the *precise cause* was never found. This accident has a lot of clues and probabl
206 Post contains links Eightball : Here's an update from Avherald: "On Jun 2nd 2013 accident investigators by the Ministry of Transport and Civil Aviation of Afghanistan reported in a p
207 AeroWesty : Seems as if the entire load shifted, and pieces of the plane were shed before it came into view on the video we saw. Thanks for posting the update, t
208 cjg225 : Seems to confirm a lot of what was suspected so far. Very unfortunate.
209 rfields5421 : There have been other accidents where the recorders 'stopped working' Mostly on-board fires. The recorders actually kept working - what caused no dat
210 Gonzalo : Was this 744 version equipped with QAR ? I guess the QAR probably wouldn't be able to survive this crash, just asking out of curiosity. Rgds. G.
211 Post contains links wjcandee : New York Times now reporting that as the 747 took off "the vehicles slammed into the back of the cargo space so hard that parts of the plane were left
212 Post contains links AR385 : http://www.avherald.com/h?article=46183bb4&opt=0 The load shifted with such violence that the three armored vehicles and two mine sweepers slammed
213 rfields5421 : I've posted this before - maybe it will stick this time. There have been several crashes where the recorders "stopped working". Most often it happens
214 Post contains links Kaiarahi : Odd. The empennage looks intact here: http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=c32_1367332518 What other parts might have separated as a result of an internal
215 LTC8K6 : Do they mean "cut" as in sabotage?
216 okie : I suspect as in stretched over a sharp object that cut the straps. I would wonder if the landing at Bagram would show a high "g" force that might ind
217 bikerthai : reached a capacity that is usable A technicality . . . but I have to clarify. There's two types of "stop working" 1) as in no power, no signal, nothin
218 spacecadet : There are also plenty of accidents where FDR/CVR recordings were not available that were conclusively solved. You guys are underestimating the abilit
219 LTBEWR : I suspect that the front most load shifted or broke first, if on a pallet, then that pallet shifted aft, then causing a domino affect onto the other l
220 rfields5421 : Does anyone know if the shipments of the same or similar vehicles out of Afghanistan via air (B747) are continuing, or have they been stopped?
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