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DAE Cancels Boeing 747-8F Order  
User currently offlineBogi From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Posted (1 year 2 months 1 week 3 days 3 hours ago) and read 17684 times:

"Boeing confirmed Thursday that the leasing firm had dropped its five remaining 747-8 freighters on order, having cancelled another five in December."

http://www.nasdaq.com/article/dubai-...ls-boeing-747-order-20130502-01417

73 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlinefalkerker From Seychelles, joined Apr 2012, 162 posts, RR: 0
Reply 1, posted (1 year 2 months 1 week 3 days 3 hours ago) and read 17577 times:

The only worst thing that could happen to Boeing is an imminent maiden flight by the A350   

on a more serious note (is it?), yet another nail in the coffin for the 747-8


User currently offlinekaitak From Ireland, joined Aug 1999, 12396 posts, RR: 37
Reply 2, posted (1 year 2 months 1 week 3 days 2 hours ago) and read 17226 times:

Quoting falkerker (Reply 1):
on a more serious note (is it?), yet another nail in the coffin for the 747-8

I'm not sure I'd put it quite so strongly; certainly, things aren't looking well for the 747-8F, but as was pointed out on another forum, most of the current line of freighters - A332F, 772LRF and 74N - have been experiencing a sales drought recently.

I think it's more a reflection on DAE; does this company have any aircraft on order anymore? Did it ever manage to place even one with an airline (apart from orders which it placed, which were then taken over by EK - which doesn't really count!). It seems to have been a pretty dismal failure as a leasing company.


User currently offlineRonaldo747 From United States of America, joined Feb 2009, 369 posts, RR: 0
Reply 3, posted (1 year 2 months 1 week 3 days 2 hours ago) and read 17188 times:

Quoting falkerker (Reply 1):

on a more serious note (is it?), yet another nail in the coffin for the 747-8

Why? The 747-8F still stands on its own without competitor but struggles because of the weak cargo market. With better times ahead the 8F will get new orders. But I suspect it will take another two, three years before the cargo business is picking up again.


User currently onlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 30397 posts, RR: 84
Reply 4, posted (1 year 2 months 1 week 3 days 2 hours ago) and read 17157 times:
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DAE's 747-8s were originally ordered by Emirates SkyCargo, who then sold them to DAE and planned to lease them back.

EK's original order was for 10, but they have been drawing that down (with DAE cancelling frames), so looks like EK has decided the 777F is sufficient for them and they do not want anything larger.


User currently offlineRickNRoll From Afghanistan, joined Jan 2012, 767 posts, RR: 0
Reply 5, posted (1 year 2 months 1 week 3 days 2 hours ago) and read 16991 times:

Quoting kaitak (Reply 2):
I'm not sure I'd put it quite so strongly; certainly, things aren't looking well for the 747-8F, but as was pointed out on another forum, most of the current line of freighters - A332F, 772LRF and 74N - have been experiencing a sales drought recently.

The problem for the 747-8 is that no other line of plane has depended on the freighters for it's success. Take away the freighters from the 747-8 sales, and you have a line that is ready to be shut down.


User currently offlinerotating14 From United States of America, joined Jan 2012, 610 posts, RR: 0
Reply 6, posted (1 year 2 months 1 week 3 days 2 hours ago) and read 16889 times:

Quoting falkerker (Reply 1):
yet another nail in the coffin for the 747-8

This cancellation is not really the 748's fault. I f they could afford it they would buy it but because of the Real Estate bussiness they so heavily depended on went south, so did other investments predicated on the RE aspirations.


User currently offlineJHwk From United States of America, joined Jan 2013, 218 posts, RR: 0
Reply 7, posted (1 year 2 months 1 week 3 days 1 hour ago) and read 16730 times:

It's nearly 10% of the 747 backlog, or 3 months production. I would think it would force Boeing to drop from 1.75/month to 1.5/month to try and buy time if nothing changes soon.

It seems like the 747 basically needs to be priced to match the 777 to have a life left, and I doubt that would be profitable. I fear the Queen's day's are numbered.


User currently offlineJoeCanuck From Canada, joined Dec 2005, 5383 posts, RR: 30
Reply 8, posted (1 year 2 months 1 week 3 days 1 hour ago) and read 16499 times:

With the huge investment in the 748, Boeing will settle for slowing the production rate before considering shutting down the line. For sure, the 748i is basically a T-Rex looking up at a growing fireball in the sky, but the cargo version should live on for quite some time.

It will take a couple of years with no orders after the last one rolls off of the line before production shuts down for good.

My guess it will last until around 2020.



What the...?
User currently offlineboeingguy26 From United States of America, joined Apr 2013, 37 posts, RR: 0
Reply 9, posted (1 year 2 months 1 week 2 days 18 hours ago) and read 15540 times:

I am a huge fan of the 747-8i/f and am hoping in the near future it will pick up some business.

I know that the 748 is basically being buried by the 77X, 351 (the 773 began the decay of 747, really), but with DLH operating the 748i, I wonder what the actual numbers are in regards to operation; better, worse or at the specs that Boeing stated? If DLH shows some good results, maybe other customers will be willing to peak again at the 748i? Just hoping because she's a beautiful machine!  


User currently offlinefrancoflier From France, joined Oct 2001, 3712 posts, RR: 11
Reply 10, posted (1 year 2 months 1 week 2 days 16 hours ago) and read 14368 times:

The 748F will keep picking up orders for some years to come.
The is nothing out there that can replace the 744F, and there are a lot of those still around which will need replacing eventually. Event accounting for a contraction in overall air freight, a large chunk of that fleet will be replaced by 748s.

I expect CX to get additional frames, especially if they can shift their older -400F faster (Boeing will be happy to help them with that, I'm sure). The dice is still rolling as far as them getting the -8i...



Looks like I picked the wrong week to quit posting...
User currently offlineKarelXWB From Netherlands, joined Jul 2012, 10329 posts, RR: 30
Reply 11, posted (1 year 2 months 1 week 2 days 15 hours ago) and read 13789 times:

Quoting rotating14 (Reply 6):
This cancellation is not really the 748's fault. I f they could afford it they would buy it but because of the Real Estate bussiness they so heavily depended on went south, so did other investments predicated on the RE aspirations.

I doesn't really matter who's fault it is, fact is that Boeing has lost 10 orders (5 in December 2012 and 5 this month) = 5 months of production at the old rate of 2 frames per month. That's a lot IMO, no wonder they had to cut the production rate.

Quoting francoflier (Reply 10):
The is nothing out there that can replace the 744F, and there are a lot of those still around which will need replacing eventually. Event accounting for a contraction in overall air freight, a large chunk of that fleet will be replaced by 748s.

The world will not stop rotating if Boeing shuts down the 747 production line. Operators will find other solutions.

Quoting francoflier (Reply 10):
The 748F will keep picking up orders for some years to come.

Let's hope so.

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 8):
With the huge investment in the 748

Now imagine the investment costs if Boeing had developed a CFRP wing for the 747.

Quoting Ronaldo747 (Reply 3):
Why? The 747-8F still stands on its own without competitor but struggles because of the weak cargo market. With better times ahead the 8F will get new orders. But I suspect it will take another two, three years before the cargo business is picking up again.

Competition or not, if Boeing cannot keep the line open it's game over. But we're not there yet. I suppose Boeing can keep the line open even at a rate of 0.5 frames per month.

[Edited 2013-05-03 00:48:47]


Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity. And I'm not sure about the universe.
User currently offlinefrigatebird From Netherlands, joined Jun 2008, 1530 posts, RR: 1
Reply 12, posted (1 year 2 months 1 week 2 days 15 hours ago) and read 13619 times:

Quoting Ronaldo747 (Reply 3):
Why? The 747-8F still stands on its own without competitor but struggles because of the weak cargo market. With better times ahead the 8F will get new orders. But I suspect it will take another two, three years before the cargo business is picking up again.

   There will still be a market for a large freighter. Etihad will soon be a another new operator for the 748F. No new order, it will be leased from Atlas, but I'm quite optimistic EY will eventually place an order themselves. Just like TK did with the 77W: lease a few first, discover its capabilities and than place direct order with Boeing for their own machines.

Quoting JHwk (Reply 7):
It's nearly 10% of the 747 backlog, or 3 months production. I would think it would force Boeing to drop from 1.75/month to 1.5/month to try and buy time if nothing changes soon.

I'm fairly sure Boeing already knew this cancellation was on its way, no production slots were assigned yet.

Quoting boeingguy26 (Reply 9):
with DLH operating the 748i, I wonder what the actual numbers are in regards to operation; better, worse or at the specs that Boeing stated?

They seem to be doing better than expected at EIS, but are still quite some way off from the original specs.

Quoting francoflier (Reply 10):
The is nothing out there that can replace the 744F,
Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 8):
My guess it will last until around 2020.

It will IMO last longer: at least until a 777-8F would be in service, I don't expect this to happen in another 10 years.



146,318/19/20/21,AB6,332,343,345,388,722,732/3/4/5/G/8,9,742,74E,744,752,762,763,772,77E,773,77W,AT4/7,ATP,CRK,E90,F50/7
User currently offlinena From Germany, joined Dec 1999, 10589 posts, RR: 10
Reply 13, posted (1 year 2 months 1 week 2 days 14 hours ago) and read 13248 times:

In a few years sales will rise again, the market will grow and many old freighters gone means new planes.

Quoting frigatebird (Reply 12):
It will IMO last longer: at least until a 777-8F would be in service, I don't expect this to happen in another 10 years.

2025 perhaps. I doubt Boeing is eager to build a plane that is a serious threat to its flagship.
Imho Boeing is stupid anyway, first they build a 787 that kills its 772, then a 77W which seriously limits the success of the 748I, and soon a 777-9X that kills it?


User currently offlineRonaldo747 From United States of America, joined Feb 2009, 369 posts, RR: 0
Reply 14, posted (1 year 2 months 1 week 2 days 14 hours ago) and read 12929 times:

Quoting frigatebird (Reply 12):
It will IMO last longer: at least until a 777-8F would be in service,

As I mentioned in another thread, the 777-8F might replace the 744BCF/BSDF but payload-wise it cannot replace the 747-8F.


User currently offlineAsiaflyer From Singapore, joined May 2007, 1123 posts, RR: 0
Reply 15, posted (1 year 2 months 1 week 2 days 14 hours ago) and read 12909 times:

Quoting na (Reply 13):
Imho Boeing is stupid anyway, first they build a 787 that kills its 772, then a 77W which seriously limits the success of the 748I, and soon a 777-9X that kills it?


What is stupid with that? Airbus builds planes that kills 772 and 747, so what shall Boeing do? Sit and watch?



SQ,MI,MH,CX,KA,CA,CZ,MU,KE,OZ,QF,NZ,FD,JQ,3K,5J,IT,AI,IC,QR,SK,LF,KL,AF,LH,LX,OS,SR,BA,SN,FR,WF,1I,5T,VZ,VX,AC,NW,UA,US,
User currently offlinena From Germany, joined Dec 1999, 10589 posts, RR: 10
Reply 16, posted (1 year 2 months 1 week 2 days 14 hours ago) and read 12690 times:

Quoting Asiaflyer (Reply 15):
What is stupid with that? Airbus builds planes that kills 772 and 747, so what shall Boeing do? Sit and watch?

So Boeing only reacts? I still dont really get what they are doing. Why didnt they develop the 77E further instead of spending 10 billion+ on a new plane then when they needed to replace the old 767 in the first place? Soon Airbus builds a 77W killer. And here suddenly Boeing doesnt build an all-new plane where it would make more sense (as an all-new 777/747 successor could beat A350 AND A380).


User currently offlinefrigatebird From Netherlands, joined Jun 2008, 1530 posts, RR: 1
Reply 17, posted (1 year 2 months 1 week 2 days 13 hours ago) and read 12184 times:

Quoting Ronaldo747 (Reply 14):
the 777-8F might replace the 744BCF/BSDF but payload-wise it cannot replace the 747-8F.

Probably not, but a 777-8F could so much more efficient it may very well offset a bit less payload... Like the 77W vs the 748i. Difference in payload would be bigger in the 778F - 748F case, but also the difference in efficiency would be (much!) bigger.



146,318/19/20/21,AB6,332,343,345,388,722,732/3/4/5/G/8,9,742,74E,744,752,762,763,772,77E,773,77W,AT4/7,ATP,CRK,E90,F50/7
User currently offlineDanny From Poland, joined Apr 2002, 3506 posts, RR: 2
Reply 18, posted (1 year 2 months 1 week 2 days 12 hours ago) and read 11581 times:

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 11):
Competition or not, if Boeing cannot keep the line open it's game over. But we're not there yet. I suppose Boeing can keep the line open even at a rate of 0.5 frames per month.

0,5 per month cannot be profitable. They'll shut it once new, larger variants of 777 become avaliable.


User currently offlineFlyingAY From Finland, joined Jun 2007, 699 posts, RR: 0
Reply 19, posted (1 year 2 months 1 week 2 days 11 hours ago) and read 11158 times:

Quoting francoflier (Reply 10):
The is nothing out there that can replace the 744F

What is it that the 744F or even 748F can do that the 77F cannot? I know about the nose loading, but is that a deal breaker for most of the operators?

There is not a single older plane that the 77F would perfectly replace - however, it's a popular plane that I expect will get even more popular. This means the operators who introduce 77F are not making 1:1 replacements, which probably means that 77F will replace some planes that it cannot replace. If you don't absolutely need the nose-loading of the 747, I'd say the cost-revenue delta looks more attractive on the 777F...


User currently offlineRevelation From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 12270 posts, RR: 25
Reply 20, posted (1 year 2 months 1 week 2 days 11 hours ago) and read 11138 times:

Quoting na (Reply 13):
In a few years sales will rise again, the market will grow and many old freighters gone means new planes.

That's one thought. Another thought is that planes that save 15% on fuel don't help much when fuel costs grow 300% and will probably continue to rise, so it's not exactly clear which cargo a/c will be replaced. For many important markets, shippers are choosing to deal with the delays associated with ground and sea transport instead of the increasing cost of air freight.

Quoting na (Reply 16):

So Boeing only reacts? I still dont really get what they are doing. Why didnt they develop the 77E further instead of spending 10 billion+ on a new plane then when they needed to replace the old 767 in the first place? Soon Airbus builds a 77W killer. And here suddenly Boeing doesnt build an all-new plane where it would make more sense (as an all-new 777/747 successor could beat A350 AND A380).

Both players react. B787 was a reaction to A330 and will be the A330 killer in the mid term future. A350 is a reaction to the B787 and will be a 777 killer in the mid term future.

The 777E is too big a plane to be in the 787/A330 market. It will be replaced from below by 787-10 and above by 778-X.

The main reason we have all new A350 and B787 is the manufacturers wanted to change the fuselage width.

B777-8X will be fine with an AL fuse.



Inspiration, move me brightly!
User currently offlinemoo From Falkland Islands, joined May 2007, 3854 posts, RR: 5
Reply 21, posted (1 year 2 months 1 week 2 days 11 hours ago) and read 10996 times:

Quoting Revelation (Reply 20):
The main reason we have all new A350 and B787 is the manufacturers wanted to change the fuselage width.

The only issue I would take with that sentence is that the A350XWB launched at the Farnborough International Airshow with an AL fuselage and only switched to CFRP several months later.


User currently offlineSEPilot From United States of America, joined Dec 2006, 6792 posts, RR: 46
Reply 22, posted (1 year 2 months 1 week 2 days 9 hours ago) and read 9387 times:

Quoting na (Reply 13):

2025 perhaps. I doubt Boeing is eager to build a plane that is a serious threat to its flagship.

Boeing will build the plane that makes them the most money. If the 748 is going to be eclipsed, better it be by another Boeing model than by an Airbus.



The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
User currently offlineRonaldo747 From United States of America, joined Feb 2009, 369 posts, RR: 0
Reply 23, posted (1 year 2 months 1 week 2 days 9 hours ago) and read 9267 times:

Quoting frigatebird (Reply 17):
Probably not, but a 777-8F could so much more efficient it may very well offset a bit less payload

The 747-8F is not that inefficient I would say. On certain missions (hot & high, short runways etc.) the 747-8F will still have performance advantages over a 777-8F, given it's engines will probably have less thrust anyway.


User currently onlinePanAm1971 From United States of America, joined Aug 2007, 382 posts, RR: 0
Reply 24, posted (1 year 2 months 1 week 2 days 7 hours ago) and read 8053 times:

Listen to all this panic. The 747-8F will be just fine. There really isn't a true competitor for it. As the world economy improves-so will the sales of the 747-8F... as well as other cargo aircraft. What concerns me more is 748i sales.

25 WesternA318 : The 747-8 has no coffin for it, and wont for a while. This is definately a reflection on the poor statistics of the leasing company.
26 babybus : I agree with that. Just from a very passive observer point of view the 'new' 747 was a mockery and even its own marketing blurb never made convincing
27 Post contains images seabosdca : The writing is on the wall for the 747-8, but it has quite a few years before it will actually be redundant. Boeing will eventually build a 777-8LXF.
28 falkerker : The 747-8I does, and when the entire market of a frame depends almost entirely on the freight market, it will eventually be shut down. As many have s
29 skipness1E : The major players who bought new B744Fs and might reasonably have been expected to buy the B748F have already ordered. The only medium size replaceme
30 WesternA318 : Would the proposed 777-8F have the same payload capability of the 7478?
31 falkerker : The 747-8 has bigger payload capabilities but it also has MUCH lower efficiency. The 777-8X will offset the 747 due to it's much more tempting effici
32 rampbro : Lose two engines and not crash. Nonsense. The on-board experience is different, the plane is longer and sleeker, the wing is entirely different, the
33 falkerker : I know those are ¨BIG¨ differences in these forums, but to the average Joe, does it really make a difference? WOuld the majority of the passengers
35 falkerker :
36 JoeCanuck : I always thought that the -8, just wasn't enough aircraft to compete...it was always going to be too close to the 77W on the bottom end and the 380 a
37 Stitch : I'd love to know what the trip cost differences are between the 777-300ER and 747-8 Intercontinental for an airline like KE that will operate both. Th
38 JoeCanuck : Very good point...KE and LH are well aware of the advantages and disadvantages of every aircraft type and they wouldn't have bought the 748i if there
39 skipness1E : Actually the B777-X redevelopment is the comparison you need. Anyone ordering a new B747-8I would be looking to operate it for 20 years or more, so o
40 boeingguy26 : Where/When will this data be available?
41 Post contains images PEK777 : Shut 'er down boys!
42 Revelation : And add to that two more years and millions more dollars than you intended to spend on it and you're in real hot water...
43 JoeCanuck : Still, as a fan, I'm happy as long as Boeing sees fit to produce them...even if they didn't see fit to take my wonderful advice about their plane.
44 PM : On 31st December 2007 DAE ordered... 15 x 787-8 10 x 777-300ER 5 x 747-8F And now they are all cancelled.
45 KarelXWB : But LH is not operating the 77W so the 747 fits perfectly in between the A346 and the A380's despite of those "disadvantages". KE on the other hand d
46 Post contains images EPA001 : I think (and hope) so too. I still have confidence in the B747-8F. I agree, but currently the cargo market is weak. The major cause for the losses AF
47 JoeCanuck : True but I'm sure they're well aware of the operating costs associated with any plane they could purchase, whether or not they operate them, and choo
48 Revelation : Very interesting. To me it illustrates the effect of Dubai's overspending. It's not that big an issue overall for Boeing because 25 of the frames wil
49 777way : Why did Boeing make the passenger version of the 748, who was it meant for?
50 kanban : don't forget there are 3 AF1 planes in the offing.. Boeing will keep the line running even if it is just for those.
51 B777LRF : The -8F can lift around 20 tons more than the 77F. The nose-door is not a deal breaker to anyone but a few remaining general cargo haulers. But these
52 SEPilot : They believed that a large number of 744's would be coming up for replacement, and thought that many airlines would like to replace them with the 748
53 KarelXWB : Can they keep the line open even if the backlog drops to 0 ?
54 kanban : They could.. my point is those three frames should be penciled in when figuring the backlog.
55 EPA001 : No, it is not a given. But I am an optimist in the end. It will take some years, but I believe the market will bounce back. And in 4-5 years we will
56 skipness1E : Let me try again. Which customer do you guys see buying 10 or more B747-8Fs that has not already done so? Tha's absolutely key IMHO.
57 solarflyer22 : Thats a shame. I don't see any more big orders coming in unless they come from the government (AF1, maybe some tankers/transports). I'm not a big fan
58 777way : I don't think any airline is desperate for the 748, based on economics both would go for twinjets, if allowed to buy. how could they have been so wro
59 Post contains images NWAROOSTER : If you need a civilian freighter with a nose loading door, the only real choice is the 747-8F unless you can find a used 747-400 with a nose cargo doo
60 BestWestern : There are plenty of BCF's underused at present.
61 Hamlet69 : Oh, it's much worse than that. At one time, DAE had orders for: 70 737NG 15 747-8F (10 came from Emirates SkyCargo) 10 777-300ER 15 787-8 70 A320 30
62 solarflyer22 : If they do close it down is this the original 747 line from the series' first production run or is it another line specifically for the 748?
63 Stitch : Lufthansa has wanted one since 2000, but as SEPilot noted, they believed they would see more interest which is why I believe they finally launched it
64 Mortyman : I would have thought that KLM would have been interested in the 747-8 Interc. But I Guess not. Why have they chosen to not to buy New 747 ?
65 Stitch : The 777-300ER seems to be large enough for them?
66 KarelXWB : The CEO of KLM recently said that the 777 has better economics than the 747-8.[Edited 2013-05-05 09:31:13]
67 Mortyman : Sad It will be strange with a KLM without the MD11's and the 747's ...[Edited 2013-05-05 09:46:31][Edited 2013-05-05 09:47:14]
68 KarelXWB : Replacing the 747's with 787 and A350 aircraft seems to be a trend.
69 Post contains images NWAROOSTER : A BCF usually only comes only with a rear side door. No nose door is installed.
70 Mortyman : Seems to me that Boeing has'nt been offering a combi Version of the 747-8. Would KLM have been more interested if such a Product was offered ? I belea
71 KarelXWB : Hard to say. Times have changed, the cargo market has changed too. Most of them are combi aircraft (17 units to be precise).
72 Stitch : Mainly because current certification requirements require a fixed partition between the passenger and cargo areas - so you have to decide at construc
73 SSTeve : Given the way variants like the 767-400 stay on offer long after there are no orders, I'm not sure it's a given that the 8i becomes unavailable even
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