Sponsor Message:
Civil Aviation Forum
My Starred Topics | Profile | New Topic | Forum Index | Help | Search 
DAE Cancels Boeing 747-8F Order  
User currently offlineBogi From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Posted (1 year 4 months 3 weeks 1 day 15 hours ago) and read 17796 times:

"Boeing confirmed Thursday that the leasing firm had dropped its five remaining 747-8 freighters on order, having cancelled another five in December."

http://www.nasdaq.com/article/dubai-...ls-boeing-747-order-20130502-01417

73 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlinefalkerker From Seychelles, joined Apr 2012, 163 posts, RR: 0
Reply 1, posted (1 year 4 months 3 weeks 1 day 15 hours ago) and read 17689 times:

The only worst thing that could happen to Boeing is an imminent maiden flight by the A350   

on a more serious note (is it?), yet another nail in the coffin for the 747-8


User currently offlinekaitak From Ireland, joined Aug 1999, 12476 posts, RR: 37
Reply 2, posted (1 year 4 months 3 weeks 1 day 15 hours ago) and read 17338 times:

Quoting falkerker (Reply 1):
on a more serious note (is it?), yet another nail in the coffin for the 747-8

I'm not sure I'd put it quite so strongly; certainly, things aren't looking well for the 747-8F, but as was pointed out on another forum, most of the current line of freighters - A332F, 772LRF and 74N - have been experiencing a sales drought recently.

I think it's more a reflection on DAE; does this company have any aircraft on order anymore? Did it ever manage to place even one with an airline (apart from orders which it placed, which were then taken over by EK - which doesn't really count!). It seems to have been a pretty dismal failure as a leasing company.


User currently offlineRonaldo747 From United States of America, joined Feb 2009, 381 posts, RR: 0
Reply 3, posted (1 year 4 months 3 weeks 1 day 15 hours ago) and read 17300 times:

Quoting falkerker (Reply 1):

on a more serious note (is it?), yet another nail in the coffin for the 747-8

Why? The 747-8F still stands on its own without competitor but struggles because of the weak cargo market. With better times ahead the 8F will get new orders. But I suspect it will take another two, three years before the cargo business is picking up again.


User currently onlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 31006 posts, RR: 86
Reply 4, posted (1 year 4 months 3 weeks 1 day 15 hours ago) and read 17269 times:
Support Airliners.net - become a First Class Member!

DAE's 747-8s were originally ordered by Emirates SkyCargo, who then sold them to DAE and planned to lease them back.

EK's original order was for 10, but they have been drawing that down (with DAE cancelling frames), so looks like EK has decided the 777F is sufficient for them and they do not want anything larger.


User currently offlineRickNRoll From Afghanistan, joined Jan 2012, 830 posts, RR: 0
Reply 5, posted (1 year 4 months 3 weeks 1 day 15 hours ago) and read 17103 times:

Quoting kaitak (Reply 2):
I'm not sure I'd put it quite so strongly; certainly, things aren't looking well for the 747-8F, but as was pointed out on another forum, most of the current line of freighters - A332F, 772LRF and 74N - have been experiencing a sales drought recently.

The problem for the 747-8 is that no other line of plane has depended on the freighters for it's success. Take away the freighters from the 747-8 sales, and you have a line that is ready to be shut down.


User currently offlinerotating14 From United States of America, joined Jan 2012, 663 posts, RR: 0
Reply 6, posted (1 year 4 months 3 weeks 1 day 14 hours ago) and read 17001 times:

Quoting falkerker (Reply 1):
yet another nail in the coffin for the 747-8

This cancellation is not really the 748's fault. I f they could afford it they would buy it but because of the Real Estate bussiness they so heavily depended on went south, so did other investments predicated on the RE aspirations.


User currently offlineJHwk From United States of America, joined Jan 2013, 235 posts, RR: 0
Reply 7, posted (1 year 4 months 3 weeks 1 day 14 hours ago) and read 16842 times:

It's nearly 10% of the 747 backlog, or 3 months production. I would think it would force Boeing to drop from 1.75/month to 1.5/month to try and buy time if nothing changes soon.

It seems like the 747 basically needs to be priced to match the 777 to have a life left, and I doubt that would be profitable. I fear the Queen's day's are numbered.


User currently offlineJoeCanuck From Canada, joined Dec 2005, 5471 posts, RR: 30
Reply 8, posted (1 year 4 months 3 weeks 1 day 13 hours ago) and read 16611 times:

With the huge investment in the 748, Boeing will settle for slowing the production rate before considering shutting down the line. For sure, the 748i is basically a T-Rex looking up at a growing fireball in the sky, but the cargo version should live on for quite some time.

It will take a couple of years with no orders after the last one rolls off of the line before production shuts down for good.

My guess it will last until around 2020.



What the...?
User currently offlineboeingguy26 From United States of America, joined Apr 2013, 44 posts, RR: 0
Reply 9, posted (1 year 4 months 3 weeks 1 day 7 hours ago) and read 15652 times:

I am a huge fan of the 747-8i/f and am hoping in the near future it will pick up some business.

I know that the 748 is basically being buried by the 77X, 351 (the 773 began the decay of 747, really), but with DLH operating the 748i, I wonder what the actual numbers are in regards to operation; better, worse or at the specs that Boeing stated? If DLH shows some good results, maybe other customers will be willing to peak again at the 748i? Just hoping because she's a beautiful machine!  


User currently offlinefrancoflier From France, joined Oct 2001, 3766 posts, RR: 11
Reply 10, posted (1 year 4 months 3 weeks 1 day 5 hours ago) and read 14480 times:

The 748F will keep picking up orders for some years to come.
The is nothing out there that can replace the 744F, and there are a lot of those still around which will need replacing eventually. Event accounting for a contraction in overall air freight, a large chunk of that fleet will be replaced by 748s.

I expect CX to get additional frames, especially if they can shift their older -400F faster (Boeing will be happy to help them with that, I'm sure). The dice is still rolling as far as them getting the -8i...



Looks like I picked the wrong week to quit posting...
User currently offlineKarelXWB From Netherlands, joined Jul 2012, 11691 posts, RR: 33
Reply 11, posted (1 year 4 months 3 weeks 1 day 4 hours ago) and read 13901 times:

Quoting rotating14 (Reply 6):
This cancellation is not really the 748's fault. I f they could afford it they would buy it but because of the Real Estate bussiness they so heavily depended on went south, so did other investments predicated on the RE aspirations.

I doesn't really matter who's fault it is, fact is that Boeing has lost 10 orders (5 in December 2012 and 5 this month) = 5 months of production at the old rate of 2 frames per month. That's a lot IMO, no wonder they had to cut the production rate.

Quoting francoflier (Reply 10):
The is nothing out there that can replace the 744F, and there are a lot of those still around which will need replacing eventually. Event accounting for a contraction in overall air freight, a large chunk of that fleet will be replaced by 748s.

The world will not stop rotating if Boeing shuts down the 747 production line. Operators will find other solutions.

Quoting francoflier (Reply 10):
The 748F will keep picking up orders for some years to come.

Let's hope so.

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 8):
With the huge investment in the 748

Now imagine the investment costs if Boeing had developed a CFRP wing for the 747.

Quoting Ronaldo747 (Reply 3):
Why? The 747-8F still stands on its own without competitor but struggles because of the weak cargo market. With better times ahead the 8F will get new orders. But I suspect it will take another two, three years before the cargo business is picking up again.

Competition or not, if Boeing cannot keep the line open it's game over. But we're not there yet. I suppose Boeing can keep the line open even at a rate of 0.5 frames per month.

[Edited 2013-05-03 00:48:47]


Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity. And I'm not sure about the universe.
User currently offlinefrigatebird From Netherlands, joined Jun 2008, 1614 posts, RR: 1
Reply 12, posted (1 year 4 months 3 weeks 1 day 4 hours ago) and read 13731 times:

Quoting Ronaldo747 (Reply 3):
Why? The 747-8F still stands on its own without competitor but struggles because of the weak cargo market. With better times ahead the 8F will get new orders. But I suspect it will take another two, three years before the cargo business is picking up again.

   There will still be a market for a large freighter. Etihad will soon be a another new operator for the 748F. No new order, it will be leased from Atlas, but I'm quite optimistic EY will eventually place an order themselves. Just like TK did with the 77W: lease a few first, discover its capabilities and than place direct order with Boeing for their own machines.

Quoting JHwk (Reply 7):
It's nearly 10% of the 747 backlog, or 3 months production. I would think it would force Boeing to drop from 1.75/month to 1.5/month to try and buy time if nothing changes soon.

I'm fairly sure Boeing already knew this cancellation was on its way, no production slots were assigned yet.

Quoting boeingguy26 (Reply 9):
with DLH operating the 748i, I wonder what the actual numbers are in regards to operation; better, worse or at the specs that Boeing stated?

They seem to be doing better than expected at EIS, but are still quite some way off from the original specs.

Quoting francoflier (Reply 10):
The is nothing out there that can replace the 744F,
Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 8):
My guess it will last until around 2020.

It will IMO last longer: at least until a 777-8F would be in service, I don't expect this to happen in another 10 years.



146,318/19/20/21,AB6,332,343,345,388,722,732/3/4/5/G/8,9,742,74E,744,752,762,763,772,77E,773,77W,AT4/7,ATP,CRK,E90,F50/7
User currently offlinena From Germany, joined Dec 1999, 10736 posts, RR: 9
Reply 13, posted (1 year 4 months 3 weeks 1 day 3 hours ago) and read 13360 times:

In a few years sales will rise again, the market will grow and many old freighters gone means new planes.

Quoting frigatebird (Reply 12):
It will IMO last longer: at least until a 777-8F would be in service, I don't expect this to happen in another 10 years.

2025 perhaps. I doubt Boeing is eager to build a plane that is a serious threat to its flagship.
Imho Boeing is stupid anyway, first they build a 787 that kills its 772, then a 77W which seriously limits the success of the 748I, and soon a 777-9X that kills it?


User currently offlineRonaldo747 From United States of America, joined Feb 2009, 381 posts, RR: 0
Reply 14, posted (1 year 4 months 3 weeks 1 day 3 hours ago) and read 13041 times:

Quoting frigatebird (Reply 12):
It will IMO last longer: at least until a 777-8F would be in service,

As I mentioned in another thread, the 777-8F might replace the 744BCF/BSDF but payload-wise it cannot replace the 747-8F.


User currently offlineAsiaflyer From Singapore, joined May 2007, 1136 posts, RR: 0
Reply 15, posted (1 year 4 months 3 weeks 1 day 3 hours ago) and read 13021 times:

Quoting na (Reply 13):
Imho Boeing is stupid anyway, first they build a 787 that kills its 772, then a 77W which seriously limits the success of the 748I, and soon a 777-9X that kills it?


What is stupid with that? Airbus builds planes that kills 772 and 747, so what shall Boeing do? Sit and watch?



SQ,MI,MH,CX,KA,CA,CZ,MU,KE,OZ,QF,NZ,FD,JQ,3K,5J,IT,AI,IC,QR,SK,LF,KL,AF,LH,LX,OS,SR,BA,SN,FR,WF,1I,5T,VZ,VX,AC,NW,UA,US,
User currently offlinena From Germany, joined Dec 1999, 10736 posts, RR: 9
Reply 16, posted (1 year 4 months 3 weeks 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 12802 times:

Quoting Asiaflyer (Reply 15):
What is stupid with that? Airbus builds planes that kills 772 and 747, so what shall Boeing do? Sit and watch?

So Boeing only reacts? I still dont really get what they are doing. Why didnt they develop the 77E further instead of spending 10 billion+ on a new plane then when they needed to replace the old 767 in the first place? Soon Airbus builds a 77W killer. And here suddenly Boeing doesnt build an all-new plane where it would make more sense (as an all-new 777/747 successor could beat A350 AND A380).


User currently offlinefrigatebird From Netherlands, joined Jun 2008, 1614 posts, RR: 1
Reply 17, posted (1 year 4 months 3 weeks 1 day 1 hour ago) and read 12296 times:

Quoting Ronaldo747 (Reply 14):
the 777-8F might replace the 744BCF/BSDF but payload-wise it cannot replace the 747-8F.

Probably not, but a 777-8F could so much more efficient it may very well offset a bit less payload... Like the 77W vs the 748i. Difference in payload would be bigger in the 778F - 748F case, but also the difference in efficiency would be (much!) bigger.



146,318/19/20/21,AB6,332,343,345,388,722,732/3/4/5/G/8,9,742,74E,744,752,762,763,772,77E,773,77W,AT4/7,ATP,CRK,E90,F50/7
User currently offlineDanny From Poland, joined Apr 2002, 3509 posts, RR: 2
Reply 18, posted (1 year 4 months 3 weeks 1 day ago) and read 11693 times:

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 11):
Competition or not, if Boeing cannot keep the line open it's game over. But we're not there yet. I suppose Boeing can keep the line open even at a rate of 0.5 frames per month.

0,5 per month cannot be profitable. They'll shut it once new, larger variants of 777 become avaliable.


User currently offlineFlyingAY From Finland, joined Jun 2007, 702 posts, RR: 0
Reply 19, posted (1 year 4 months 3 weeks 1 day ago) and read 11270 times:

Quoting francoflier (Reply 10):
The is nothing out there that can replace the 744F

What is it that the 744F or even 748F can do that the 77F cannot? I know about the nose loading, but is that a deal breaker for most of the operators?

There is not a single older plane that the 77F would perfectly replace - however, it's a popular plane that I expect will get even more popular. This means the operators who introduce 77F are not making 1:1 replacements, which probably means that 77F will replace some planes that it cannot replace. If you don't absolutely need the nose-loading of the 747, I'd say the cost-revenue delta looks more attractive on the 777F...


User currently onlineRevelation From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 12564 posts, RR: 25
Reply 20, posted (1 year 4 months 3 weeks 1 day ago) and read 11250 times:

Quoting na (Reply 13):
In a few years sales will rise again, the market will grow and many old freighters gone means new planes.

That's one thought. Another thought is that planes that save 15% on fuel don't help much when fuel costs grow 300% and will probably continue to rise, so it's not exactly clear which cargo a/c will be replaced. For many important markets, shippers are choosing to deal with the delays associated with ground and sea transport instead of the increasing cost of air freight.

Quoting na (Reply 16):

So Boeing only reacts? I still dont really get what they are doing. Why didnt they develop the 77E further instead of spending 10 billion+ on a new plane then when they needed to replace the old 767 in the first place? Soon Airbus builds a 77W killer. And here suddenly Boeing doesnt build an all-new plane where it would make more sense (as an all-new 777/747 successor could beat A350 AND A380).

Both players react. B787 was a reaction to A330 and will be the A330 killer in the mid term future. A350 is a reaction to the B787 and will be a 777 killer in the mid term future.

The 777E is too big a plane to be in the 787/A330 market. It will be replaced from below by 787-10 and above by 778-X.

The main reason we have all new A350 and B787 is the manufacturers wanted to change the fuselage width.

B777-8X will be fine with an AL fuse.



Inspiration, move me brightly!
User currently offlinemoo From Falkland Islands, joined May 2007, 3948 posts, RR: 4
Reply 21, posted (1 year 4 months 3 weeks 1 day ago) and read 11108 times:

Quoting Revelation (Reply 20):
The main reason we have all new A350 and B787 is the manufacturers wanted to change the fuselage width.

The only issue I would take with that sentence is that the A350XWB launched at the Farnborough International Airshow with an AL fuselage and only switched to CFRP several months later.


User currently offlineSEPilot From United States of America, joined Dec 2006, 6910 posts, RR: 46
Reply 22, posted (1 year 4 months 3 weeks 22 hours ago) and read 9499 times:

Quoting na (Reply 13):

2025 perhaps. I doubt Boeing is eager to build a plane that is a serious threat to its flagship.

Boeing will build the plane that makes them the most money. If the 748 is going to be eclipsed, better it be by another Boeing model than by an Airbus.



The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
User currently offlineRonaldo747 From United States of America, joined Feb 2009, 381 posts, RR: 0
Reply 23, posted (1 year 4 months 3 weeks 21 hours ago) and read 9379 times:

Quoting frigatebird (Reply 17):
Probably not, but a 777-8F could so much more efficient it may very well offset a bit less payload

The 747-8F is not that inefficient I would say. On certain missions (hot & high, short runways etc.) the 747-8F will still have performance advantages over a 777-8F, given it's engines will probably have less thrust anyway.


User currently offlinePanAm1971 From United States of America, joined Aug 2007, 397 posts, RR: 0
Reply 24, posted (1 year 4 months 3 weeks 20 hours ago) and read 8165 times:

Listen to all this panic. The 747-8F will be just fine. There really isn't a true competitor for it. As the world economy improves-so will the sales of the 747-8F... as well as other cargo aircraft. What concerns me more is 748i sales.

User currently offlineWesternA318 From United States of America, joined Oct 2004, 5681 posts, RR: 24
Reply 25, posted (1 year 4 months 3 weeks 20 hours ago) and read 8396 times:

Quoting falkerker (Reply 1):
yet another nail in the coffin for the 747-8

The 747-8 has no coffin for it, and wont for a while. This is definately a reflection on the poor statistics of the leasing company.



Check out my blog at fl310travel.blogspot.com!
User currently offlinebabybus From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 26, posted (1 year 4 months 3 weeks 19 hours ago) and read 8209 times:

Quoting JHwk (Reply 7):
It seems like the 747 basically needs to be priced to match the 777 to have a life left, and I doubt that would be profitable. I fear the Queen's day's are numbered.

I agree with that.

Just from a very passive observer point of view the 'new' 747 was a mockery and even its own marketing blurb never made convincing reading.


User currently offlineseabosdca From United States of America, joined Sep 2007, 5467 posts, RR: 6
Reply 27, posted (1 year 4 months 3 weeks 19 hours ago) and read 8001 times:

Quoting Danny (Reply 18):
They'll shut it once new, larger variants of 777 become avaliable.

   The writing is on the wall for the 747-8, but it has quite a few years before it will actually be redundant.

Boeing will eventually build a 777-8LXF. That frame will be big enough, and be convincingly more efficient enough, that it will spell the end of the 747. But before that happens, Boeing will need to get through the inevitable passenger backlog of the 777-9X, which will probably take 5+ years after 777X EIS. Expect a 777-8XF entering service in the late 2020s. Until then, there will still be heavy air cargo demand, and there will still be 747-8F demand.

I'd expect to see at least a decade more of 747-8F production, even if at 1 or 1.25 frames/month.


User currently offlinefalkerker From Seychelles, joined Apr 2012, 163 posts, RR: 0
Reply 28, posted (1 year 4 months 3 weeks 19 hours ago) and read 7894 times:

Quoting WesternA318 (Reply 25):
The 747-8 has no coffin for it

The 747-8I does, and when the entire market of a frame depends almost entirely on the freight market, it will eventually be shut down. As many have stated, the 777-8F will steer freight companies away from the 747-8


User currently offlineskipness1E From United Kingdom, joined Aug 2007, 3255 posts, RR: 1
Reply 29, posted (1 year 4 months 3 weeks 18 hours ago) and read 7499 times:

Quoting PanAm1971 (Reply 24):
Listen to all this panic. The 747-8F will be just fine. There really isn't a true competitor for it.

The major players who bought new B744Fs and might reasonably have been expected to buy the B748F have already ordered. The only medium size replacement orders I might see coming down the pipeline would be China Airlines and Singapore Cargo. Korean Air Cargo are already dabbling with the B77F and Emirates and Air France already went down that two engined path.
The B747-8i is dead in the water and will be buried by the upcoming B777 replacement and A350s.

Yes the B747-8 is sleek, elegant and beautiful but given that only a single major airline has put down a "significant" order for the passenger variant and the remainder are luxury toys and dribs and drabs from existing customers, the figures just don't add up. Boeing will be concentrating on the B777 upgrade and you can bet sales will be focussed laser like on that. The B747-8F line will pootle along for a few years to fulfil remaining orders and like the MD11 before it, it will be closed. Can anyone see a new double digit freighter order yet to come? If so, from where?


User currently offlineWesternA318 From United States of America, joined Oct 2004, 5681 posts, RR: 24
Reply 30, posted (1 year 4 months 3 weeks 17 hours ago) and read 7129 times:

Quoting falkerker (Reply 28):
The 747-8I does, and when the entire market of a frame depends almost entirely on the freight market, it will eventually be shut down. As many have stated, the 777-8F will steer freight companies away from the 747-8

Would the proposed 777-8F have the same payload capability of the 7478?



Check out my blog at fl310travel.blogspot.com!
User currently offlinefalkerker From Seychelles, joined Apr 2012, 163 posts, RR: 0
Reply 31, posted (1 year 4 months 3 weeks 16 hours ago) and read 6464 times:

Quoting WesternA318 (Reply 30):
Would the proposed 777-8F have the same payload capability of the 7478?
Quoting frigatebird (Reply 17):
Probably not, but a 777-8F could so much more efficient it may very well offset a bit less payload... Like the 77W vs the 748i. Difference in payload would be bigger in the 778F - 748F case, but also the difference in efficiency would be (much!) bigger.

The 747-8 has bigger payload capabilities but it also has MUCH lower efficiency. The 777-8X will offset the 747 due to it's much more tempting efficiency, even if the payload is a tad smaller.


User currently offlinerampbro From Canada, joined Nov 2012, 223 posts, RR: 0
Reply 32, posted (1 year 4 months 3 weeks 16 hours ago) and read 6007 times:

Quoting FlyingAY (Reply 19):
What is it that the 744F or even 748F can do that the 77F cannot?

Lose two engines and not crash.

Quoting babybus (Reply 26):
the 'new' 747 was a mockery

Nonsense. The on-board experience is different, the plane is longer and sleeker, the wing is entirely different, the engines are different. I'm going to conclude that you've never travelled on one, and I will also venture that you've never even spotted one.

Hong Kong World Trader flew directly overhead of at about FL10 the other night whilst I was playing cricket. Magnificent machine.


User currently offlinefalkerker From Seychelles, joined Apr 2012, 163 posts, RR: 0
Reply 33, posted (1 year 4 months 3 weeks 16 hours ago) and read 5885 times:

Quoting rampbro (Reply 32):
The on-board experience is different, the plane is longer and sleeker, the wing is entirely different, the engines are different.

I know those are ¨BIG¨ differences in these forums, but to the average Joe, does it really make a difference? WOuld the majority of the passengers pay the difference to travel in a 747 instead of any other aircraft that would still take them from A to B on time?

Quoting babybus (Reply 26):
the 'new' 747 was a mockery and even its own marketing blurb never made convincing reading.

It didn´t bring anything new to what matters most, fuel efficiency and comfort.


User currently offlineboeingguy26 From United States of America, joined Apr 2013, 44 posts, RR: 0
Reply 34, posted (1 year 4 months 3 weeks 15 hours ago) and read 5549 times:

Quoting rampbro (Reply 32):
Nonsense. The on-board experience is different, the plane is longer and sleeker, the wing is entirely different, the engines are different. I'm going to conclude that you've never travelled on one, and I will also venture that you've never even spotted one.

  


User currently offlinefalkerker From Seychelles, joined Apr 2012, 163 posts, RR: 0
Reply 35, posted (1 year 4 months 3 weeks 15 hours ago) and read 5538 times:

Quoting boeingguy26 (Reply 34):
if it aint Boeing I aint going


User currently offlineJoeCanuck From Canada, joined Dec 2005, 5471 posts, RR: 30
Reply 36, posted (1 year 4 months 3 weeks 15 hours ago) and read 5548 times:

Quoting falkerker (Reply 33):
It didn´t bring anything new to what matters most, fuel efficiency and comfort.

I always thought that the -8, just wasn't enough aircraft to compete...it was always going to be too close to the 77W on the bottom end and the 380 at the top. EK and others had already been putting 747 sized passenger loads on their 77W's, so the writing was already on the wall.

Boeing knew from the outset that the VLA market is limited

It seemed to me to be too big of a job for too little gain. I know it would have been a daunting task, but instead of the stretch, (or in addition to), they would have been better served by stretching the top floor all the way back, making it a true double decker.

Still, that time has past and it's a big twin world we live in. There will be jobs for which the 8i will be ideally suited but there aren't many. The -8F's longevity will depend, in part, on how desirable 744 conversions end up being.

I'm a bit surprised that no military have purchased any, as an alternative to the C-17 or the like.



What the...?
User currently onlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 31006 posts, RR: 86
Reply 37, posted (1 year 4 months 3 weeks 14 hours ago) and read 5352 times:
Support Airliners.net - become a First Class Member!

I'd love to know what the trip cost differences are between the 777-300ER and 747-8 Intercontinental for an airline like KE that will operate both. That is likely going to determine whether or not the 747-8 Intercontinental has any real future.

User currently offlineJoeCanuck From Canada, joined Dec 2005, 5471 posts, RR: 30
Reply 38, posted (1 year 4 months 3 weeks 14 hours ago) and read 5320 times:

Quoting Stitch (Reply 37):
I'd love to know what the trip cost differences are between the 777-300ER and 747-8 Intercontinental for an airline like KE that will operate both. That is likely going to determine whether or not the 747-8 Intercontinental has any real future.

Very good point...KE and LH are well aware of the advantages and disadvantages of every aircraft type and they wouldn't have bought the 748i if there was no advantage to do so.

Some side by side experience should bring interesting comparisons.



What the...?
User currently offlineskipness1E From United Kingdom, joined Aug 2007, 3255 posts, RR: 1
Reply 39, posted (1 year 4 months 3 weeks 12 hours ago) and read 5169 times:

Quoting Stitch (Reply 37):
I'd love to know what the trip cost differences are between the 777-300ER and 747-8 Intercontinental for an airline like KE that will operate both. That is likely going to determine whether or not the 747-8 Intercontinental has any real future.

Actually the B777-X redevelopment is the comparison you need. Anyone ordering a new B747-8I would be looking to operate it for 20 years or more, so one needs to compare the B748 with the new upcoming platforms.


User currently offlineboeingguy26 From United States of America, joined Apr 2013, 44 posts, RR: 0
Reply 40, posted (1 year 4 months 3 weeks 12 hours ago) and read 5083 times:

Quoting Stitch (Reply 37):
I'd love to know what the trip cost differences are between the 777-300ER and 747-8 Intercontinental for an airline like KE that will operate both. That is likely going to determine whether or not the 747-8 Intercontinental has any real future.

Where/When will this data be available?


User currently offlinePEK777 From China, joined Jun 2012, 148 posts, RR: 1
Reply 41, posted (1 year 4 months 3 weeks 11 hours ago) and read 5016 times:

Shut 'er down boys!

  


User currently onlineRevelation From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 12564 posts, RR: 25
Reply 42, posted (1 year 4 months 3 weeks 11 hours ago) and read 5011 times:

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 36):
It seemed to me to be too big of a job for too little gain.

And add to that two more years and millions more dollars than you intended to spend on it and you're in real hot water...



Inspiration, move me brightly!
User currently offlineJoeCanuck From Canada, joined Dec 2005, 5471 posts, RR: 30
Reply 43, posted (1 year 4 months 3 weeks 10 hours ago) and read 4879 times:

Quoting Revelation (Reply 42):
And add to that two more years and millions more dollars than you intended to spend on it and you're in real hot water...

Still, as a fan, I'm happy as long as Boeing sees fit to produce them...even if they didn't see fit to take my wonderful advice about their plane.



What the...?
User currently offlinePM From Germany, joined Feb 2005, 6921 posts, RR: 63
Reply 44, posted (1 year 4 months 3 weeks 7 hours ago) and read 4678 times:

On 31st December 2007 DAE ordered...

15 x 787-8
10 x 777-300ER
5 x 747-8F

And now they are all cancelled.


User currently offlineKarelXWB From Netherlands, joined Jul 2012, 11691 posts, RR: 33
Reply 45, posted (1 year 4 months 3 weeks 3 hours ago) and read 4475 times:

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 38):
Very good point...KE and LH are well aware of the advantages and disadvantages of every aircraft type and they wouldn't have bought the 748i if there was no advantage to do so.

But LH is not operating the 77W so the 747 fits perfectly in between the A346 and the A380's despite of those "disadvantages". KE on the other hand does operate to the 77W.

Quoting boeingguy26 (Reply 40):
Where/When will this data be available?

I believe first deliveries are slated for 2014.

Unforgettably we hear almost nothing about KE's 748i aircraft. No seat maps, nothing about the cabin and routes it will fly.

[Edited 2013-05-04 01:24:43]


Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity. And I'm not sure about the universe.
User currently offlineEPA001 From Netherlands, joined Sep 2006, 4739 posts, RR: 39
Reply 46, posted (1 year 4 months 3 weeks 2 hours ago) and read 4363 times:
Support Airliners.net - become a First Class Member!

Quoting francoflier (Reply 10):
The 748F will keep picking up orders for some years to come.

I think (and hope) so too.   

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 11):
Let's hope so.

I still have confidence in the B747-8F.

Quoting frigatebird (Reply 12):
There will still be a market for a large freighter.

I agree, but currently the cargo market is weak. The major cause for the losses AF-KLM posted this week is caused by the weak cargo market.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 37):
I'd love to know what the trip cost differences are between the 777-300ER and 747-8 Intercontinental for an airline like KE that will operate both. That is likely going to determine whether or not the 747-8 Intercontinental has any real future.

Now that would be very interesting indeed.  .

Quoting PM (Reply 44):
And now they are all cancelled.

That is not good for DAE, and not good for Boeing.  .


User currently offlineJoeCanuck From Canada, joined Dec 2005, 5471 posts, RR: 30
Reply 47, posted (1 year 4 months 2 weeks 6 days 20 hours ago) and read 4096 times:

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 45):

But LH is not operating the 77W so the 747 fits perfectly in between the A346 and the A380's despite of those "disadvantages". KE on the other hand does operate to the 77W.

True but I'm sure they're well aware of the operating costs associated with any plane they could purchase, whether or not they operate them, and choose aircraft based on their route structure.

I seems, though, that not a lot of airlines have found a niche for the 748. The 77X will make that niche even harder to find.



What the...?
User currently onlineRevelation From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 12564 posts, RR: 25
Reply 48, posted (1 year 4 months 2 weeks 6 days 20 hours ago) and read 4073 times:

Quoting PM (Reply 44):
On 31st December 2007 DAE ordered...

15 x 787-8
10 x 777-300ER
5 x 747-8F

And now they are all cancelled.

Very interesting.

To me it illustrates the effect of Dubai's overspending.

It's not that big an issue overall for Boeing because 25 of the frames will have no problem finding buyers.

Quoting EPA001 (Reply 46):
I agree, but currently the cargo market is weak.

It's not a given that it will bounce back. Fuel prices are high and not too likely to decrease much if at all, and other modalities such as contianerized freight have improved to the point that customers have switched to using them, and it's not clear how the air freight industry will get them back.

Surely there will be a core set of customers that will continue to use air freight, and clearly the older freighters will continue to wear out and become economically unviable, but it's not clear to me how long Boeing will continue to tread water with the 747-8 program, especially keeping in mind it's best competition is its own 777F program so shutting down 747-8 will mainly shift any remaining orders to 777F. It'd be a gutsy move, but at some point Boeing might say it'd be better off using the space to build more 777s, and that point may come when it's time to build the 777Xs.



Inspiration, move me brightly!
User currently offline777way From Pakistan, joined Dec 2005, 5716 posts, RR: 4
Reply 49, posted (1 year 4 months 2 weeks 6 days 17 hours ago) and read 3943 times:

Why did Boeing make the passenger version of the 748, who was it meant for?

User currently offlinekanban From United States of America, joined Jan 2008, 3560 posts, RR: 27
Reply 50, posted (1 year 4 months 2 weeks 6 days 17 hours ago) and read 3892 times:
Support Airliners.net - become a First Class Member!

don't forget there are 3 AF1 planes in the offing.. Boeing will keep the line running even if it is just for those.

User currently offlineB777LRF From Luxembourg, joined Nov 2008, 1361 posts, RR: 3
Reply 51, posted (1 year 4 months 2 weeks 6 days 17 hours ago) and read 3896 times:

Quoting FlyingAY (Reply 19):
What is it that the 744F or even 748F can do that the 77F cannot? I know about the nose loading, but is that a deal breaker for most of the operators?

There is not a single older plane that the 77F would perfectly replace - however, it's a popular plane that I expect will get even more popular. This means the operators who introduce 77F are not making 1:1 replacements, which probably means that 77F will replace some planes that it cannot replace. If you don't absolutely need the nose-loading of the 747, I'd say the cost-revenue delta looks more attractive on the 777F...

The -8F can lift around 20 tons more than the 77F. The nose-door is not a deal breaker to anyone but a few remaining general cargo haulers. But these days most freighters are bought by integrators who have no use of it.

The 77F is, however, the perfect replacement for the MD-11F. Yes, it's far easier making money with a 777F than a 748F.

Quoting 777way (Reply 49):

Why did Boeing make the passenger version of the 748, who was it meant for?

Boeing had it in their minds a large proportion of today's 744 operators would change to the -8I, and actually projected the vast majority of orders to be for the I rather than the F. So, in essence, your question should really be 'why did Boeing build the F?',.



From receips and radials over straight pipes to big fans - been there, done that, got the hearing defects to prove
User currently offlineSEPilot From United States of America, joined Dec 2006, 6910 posts, RR: 46
Reply 52, posted (1 year 4 months 2 weeks 6 days 17 hours ago) and read 3891 times:

Quoting 777way (Reply 49):
Why did Boeing make the passenger version of the 748, who was it meant for?

They believed that a large number of 744's would be coming up for replacement, and thought that many airlines would like to replace them with the 748. Obviously, they were wrong.



The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
User currently offlineKarelXWB From Netherlands, joined Jul 2012, 11691 posts, RR: 33
Reply 53, posted (1 year 4 months 2 weeks 6 days 16 hours ago) and read 3870 times:

Quoting kanban (Reply 50):
Boeing will keep the line running even if it is just for those.

Can they keep the line open even if the backlog drops to 0 ?



Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity. And I'm not sure about the universe.
User currently offlinekanban From United States of America, joined Jan 2008, 3560 posts, RR: 27
Reply 54, posted (1 year 4 months 2 weeks 6 days 14 hours ago) and read 3720 times:
Support Airliners.net - become a First Class Member!

They could.. my point is those three frames should be penciled in when figuring the backlog.

User currently offlineEPA001 From Netherlands, joined Sep 2006, 4739 posts, RR: 39
Reply 55, posted (1 year 4 months 2 weeks 6 days 13 hours ago) and read 3602 times:
Support Airliners.net - become a First Class Member!

Quoting Revelation (Reply 48):
It's not a given that it will bounce back.

No, it is not a given. But I am an optimist in the end. It will take some years, but I believe the market will bounce back. And in 4-5 years we will know if my optimism had any solid ground or not.

Quoting Revelation (Reply 48):
It'd be a gutsy move, but at some point Boeing might say it'd be better off using the space to build more 777s, and that point may come when it's time to build the 777Xs.

It would be gutsy on the one hand, but it might also be the rational thing to do. The introduction of the B777-X's could be the trigger. But it could also happen before that. But as fan of 4-holers I hope you and I are wrong on this. But my hopes are not that high that we are wrong.

[Edited 2013-05-04 15:44:03]

User currently offlineskipness1E From United Kingdom, joined Aug 2007, 3255 posts, RR: 1
Reply 56, posted (1 year 4 months 2 weeks 6 days 11 hours ago) and read 3479 times:

Let me try again. Which customer do you guys see buying 10 or more B747-8Fs that has not already done so?
Tha's absolutely key IMHO.


User currently offlinesolarflyer22 From US Minor Outlying Islands, joined Nov 2009, 1087 posts, RR: 3
Reply 57, posted (1 year 4 months 2 weeks 6 days 11 hours ago) and read 3414 times:

Thats a shame. I don't see any more big orders coming in unless they come from the government (AF1, maybe some tankers/transports).

I'm not a big fan of the aviation sanctions on Iran or Cuba and frankly I could see 20 748's they'd love to have. That would keep the line for 2 years additional.


User currently offline777way From Pakistan, joined Dec 2005, 5716 posts, RR: 4
Reply 58, posted (1 year 4 months 2 weeks 6 days 11 hours ago) and read 3397 times:

Quoting solarflyer22 (Reply 57):

I'm not a big fan of the aviation sanctions on Iran or Cuba and frankly I could see 20 748's they'd love to have. That would keep the line for 2 years additional.

I don't think any airline is desperate for the 748, based on economics both would go for twinjets, if allowed to buy.

Quoting SEPilot (Reply 52):

how could they have been so wrong.


User currently offlineNWAROOSTER From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 1091 posts, RR: 3
Reply 59, posted (1 year 4 months 2 weeks 6 days 10 hours ago) and read 3376 times:
Support Airliners.net - become a First Class Member!

If you need a civilian freighter with a nose loading door, the only real choice is the 747-8F unless you can find a used 747-400 with a nose cargo door that still available and does not require the need to be resurrected from the dead.
I don't think there are any Antonov 124s or 224s available and they only have limited use and are expensive to operate and maintain.
Otherwise, a 777 freighter would be more than adequate for all but the heaviest of loads.   


User currently offlineBestWestern From Hong Kong, joined Sep 2000, 7152 posts, RR: 57
Reply 60, posted (1 year 4 months 2 weeks 6 days 10 hours ago) and read 3353 times:

Quoting NWAROOSTER (Reply 59):

If you need a civilian freighter with a nose loading door, the only real choice is the 747-8F unless you can find a used 747-400 with a nose cargo door that still available and does not require the need to be resurrected from the dead.

There are plenty of BCF's underused at present.



The world is really getting smaller these days
User currently offlineHamlet69 From United States of America, joined Mar 2000, 2744 posts, RR: 58
Reply 61, posted (1 year 4 months 2 weeks 6 days 10 hours ago) and read 3365 times:

Quoting Revelation (Reply 48):
Quoting PM (Reply 44):On 31st December 2007 DAE ordered...15 x 787-810 x 777-300ER5 x 747-8FAnd now they are all cancelled.Very interesting.To me it illustrates the effect of Dubai's overspending.

Oh, it's much worse than that. At one time, DAE had orders for:

70 737NG
15 747-8F (10 came from Emirates SkyCargo)
10 777-300ER
15 787-8
70 A320
30 A350-900

Of all that, only 3 were ever delivered (737-800's, leased to FlyDubai, IIRC). As noted, all other orders were cancelled.


Regards,

Hamlet69



Honor the warriors, not the war.
User currently offlinesolarflyer22 From US Minor Outlying Islands, joined Nov 2009, 1087 posts, RR: 3
Reply 62, posted (1 year 4 months 2 weeks 5 days 20 hours ago) and read 3047 times:

If they do close it down is this the original 747 line from the series' first production run or is it another line specifically for the 748?

User currently onlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 31006 posts, RR: 86
Reply 63, posted (1 year 4 months 2 weeks 5 days 20 hours ago) and read 3043 times:
Support Airliners.net - become a First Class Member!

Quoting 777way (Reply 49):
Why did Boeing make the passenger version of the 748, who was it meant for?

Lufthansa has wanted one since 2000, but as SEPilot noted, they believed they would see more interest which is why I believe they finally launched it after scrapping the various earlier concepts (747-400X, 747X, 747X Stretch, etc.).


User currently offlineMortyman From Norway, joined Aug 2006, 3941 posts, RR: 1
Reply 64, posted (1 year 4 months 2 weeks 5 days 19 hours ago) and read 2987 times:

I would have thought that KLM would have been interested in the 747-8 Interc. But I Guess not. Why have they chosen to not to buy New 747 ?

User currently onlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 31006 posts, RR: 86
Reply 65, posted (1 year 4 months 2 weeks 5 days 19 hours ago) and read 2992 times:
Support Airliners.net - become a First Class Member!

Quoting Mortyman (Reply 64):
I would have thought that KLM would have been interested in the 747-8 Interc. But I Guess not. Why have they chosen to not to buy New 747 ?

The 777-300ER seems to be large enough for them?


User currently offlineKarelXWB From Netherlands, joined Jul 2012, 11691 posts, RR: 33
Reply 66, posted (1 year 4 months 2 weeks 5 days 19 hours ago) and read 2987 times:

The CEO of KLM recently said that the 777 has better economics than the 747-8.

[Edited 2013-05-05 09:31:13]


Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity. And I'm not sure about the universe.
User currently offlineMortyman From Norway, joined Aug 2006, 3941 posts, RR: 1
Reply 67, posted (1 year 4 months 2 weeks 5 days 19 hours ago) and read 2970 times:

Sad

It will be strange with a KLM without the MD11's and the 747's ...

[Edited 2013-05-05 09:46:31]

[Edited 2013-05-05 09:47:14]

User currently offlineKarelXWB From Netherlands, joined Jul 2012, 11691 posts, RR: 33
Reply 68, posted (1 year 4 months 2 weeks 5 days 19 hours ago) and read 2948 times:

Replacing the 747's with 787 and A350 aircraft seems to be a trend.


Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity. And I'm not sure about the universe.
User currently offlineNWAROOSTER From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 1091 posts, RR: 3
Reply 69, posted (1 year 4 months 2 weeks 5 days 19 hours ago) and read 2941 times:
Support Airliners.net - become a First Class Member!

Quoting BestWestern (Reply 60):
Quoting NWAROOSTER (Reply 59):

If you need a civilian freighter with a nose loading door, the only real choice is the 747-8F unless you can find a used 747-400 with a nose cargo door that still available and does not require the need to be resurrected from the dead.

There are plenty of BCF's underused at present.

A BCF usually only comes only with a rear side door. No nose door is installed.   


User currently offlineMortyman From Norway, joined Aug 2006, 3941 posts, RR: 1
Reply 70, posted (1 year 4 months 2 weeks 5 days 19 hours ago) and read 2933 times:

Seems to me that Boeing has'nt been offering a combi Version of the 747-8. Would KLM have been more interested if such a Product was offered ? I beleave several of the 747's they have now are combis

User currently offlineKarelXWB From Netherlands, joined Jul 2012, 11691 posts, RR: 33
Reply 71, posted (1 year 4 months 2 weeks 5 days 19 hours ago) and read 2910 times:

Quoting Mortyman (Reply 70):
Would KLM have been more interested if such a Product was offered ?

Hard to say. Times have changed, the cargo market has changed too.

Quoting Mortyman (Reply 70):
I beleave several of the 747's they have now are combis

Most of them are combi aircraft (17 units to be precise).



Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity. And I'm not sure about the universe.
User currently onlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 31006 posts, RR: 86
Reply 72, posted (1 year 4 months 2 weeks 5 days 19 hours ago) and read 2885 times:
Support Airliners.net - become a First Class Member!

Quoting Mortyman (Reply 70):
Seems to me that Boeing has'nt been offering a combi Version of the 747-8.

Mainly because current certification requirements require a fixed partition between the passenger and cargo areas - so you have to decide at construction time how much space you want to dedicate to passengers and to main deck cargo. There are also stronger safety requirements.



Quoting Mortyman (Reply 70):
ould KLM have been more interested if such a Product was offered?

I guess it depends on how flexible KLM needs to be in terms of adjusting loads.

[Edited 2013-05-05 10:04:45]

User currently offlineSSTeve From United States of America, joined Dec 2011, 706 posts, RR: 1
Reply 73, posted (1 year 4 months 2 weeks 5 days 17 hours ago) and read 2781 times:

Quoting falkerker (Reply 28):
The 747-8I does, and when the entire market of a frame depends almost entirely on the freight market, it will eventually be shut down. As many have stated, the 777-8F will steer freight companies away from the 747-8

Given the way variants like the 767-400 stay on offer long after there are no orders, I'm not sure it's a given that the 8i becomes unavailable even after years of no orders. Perhaps if Boeing is the primary supplier for the parts that are different, the 8i will remain available for VIP orders indefinitely. Plus if there's no backlog for the 8i and a long wait for the A380&777-9, the salespeople will do creative crap like offering readily available frames to LCC startups in the Pacific. (See Skymark's A380 order, or even Ryanair's willingness to order frames with a successor already in the works.) If the 8F and 8i share the same line, it's hardly a given that the costs of keeping the 8i available mean that it's removed from offer soon after orders dry up. It's not like the 757, where the entire line is sitting empty with capital opportunity costs.


Top Of Page
Forum Index

This topic is archived and can not be replied to any more.

Printer friendly format

Similar topics:More similar topics...
Korean Air Boeing 747-8F And 777F Dual Delivery posted Tue Feb 7 2012 08:18:07 by gothamspotter
Boeing 747-8F Makes A Big Splash! posted Mon Oct 11 2010 12:06:12 by propilot83
Boeing 747-8F Delayed To Mid-2011 posted Fri Oct 1 2010 02:51:00 by Chiad
New British Airways Boeing 747-8F posted Mon Aug 23 2010 10:23:45 by mikey72
Boeing 747-8F Leaves Paint Hangar posted Wed Nov 18 2009 05:04:28 by OyKIE
62 Boeing 747-400 Order Backlog? posted Thu Mar 30 2006 00:47:20 by Vfw614
Boeing 747-8i/8F Order Thread. posted Mon Dec 10 2007 11:58:41 by WINGS
Will Qantas Airways Order The Boeing 747-8I posted Mon Dec 12 2011 05:34:30 by mcpcshowcaseHD
Boeing To Deliver 747-8F October 12 posted Fri Sep 30 2011 14:37:00 by Gunsontheroof
Atlas Air Cancels 3 747-8F Due Delay, Performance posted Wed Sep 21 2011 13:46:51 by LAXintl