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Airbus, ANA & JAL In Discussions For A350 Orders  
User currently offlineBogi From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Posted (1 year 11 months 3 weeks 5 days 16 hours ago) and read 16923 times:

"Airbus SAS is in discussions with Japan’s two biggest carriers about an order for its A350-1000, a long-range plane aimed at eroding Boeing Co. (BA)’s dominance in wide-body aircraft, three people familiar with the talks said."

http://www.businessweek.com/news/201...der-from-largest-japanese-airlines

44 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently onlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 32188 posts, RR: 85
Reply 1, posted (1 year 11 months 3 weeks 5 days 16 hours ago) and read 16919 times:
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It's the only model that makes financial sense as a long-haul 777-300ER replacement for both carriers.

Neither carrier has the traffic to fill a 777-9 at 9-abreast, to say nothing of 10-abreast. And with neither carrier likely going 10-abreast in long-haul Economy, the extra weight of the 777-8 is a penalty (and they certainly do not need the range nor the payload of the 777-8L).

For medium-haul and short-haul 777-300(ER) replacement, I could see them going with the 787-10. But I don't see either finding a role for the 777X.


User currently offlineKarelXWB From Netherlands, joined Jul 2012, 14609 posts, RR: 43
Reply 2, posted (1 year 11 months 3 weeks 5 days 16 hours ago) and read 16823 times:

French president Hollande is scheduled to visit Japan from 6 to 8 June, is he just going to check out some flowers?   


Close, but no cigar http://vine.co/v/OjqeYWWpVWK
User currently offlinetkukucka From Australia, joined Apr 2013, 79 posts, RR: 0
Reply 3, posted (1 year 11 months 3 weeks 5 days 14 hours ago) and read 16277 times:

I think that the A350-1000 is a good replacement for the 77W,minus the cabin width it will a great aircraft. But at this point its all speculation, because for many months now JAL has been in talks with Boeing for a possible 777x order. cheers

User currently offlinetrex8 From United States of America, joined Nov 2002, 5145 posts, RR: 14
Reply 4, posted (1 year 11 months 3 weeks 5 days 13 hours ago) and read 16108 times:
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With big customers like these they are "stealing" from B no wonder there is all this talk of another line to produce the A35J to meet demand!

User currently offlinecarpethead From Japan, joined Aug 2004, 3010 posts, RR: 3
Reply 5, posted (1 year 11 months 3 weeks 5 days 3 hours ago) and read 15047 times:

A350-1000 LHW (low-gross weight) would be great for 773 replacement at the end of the decade to go with the normal A350-1000.
Even if the 777X doesn't have similar Japanese-manfacturing content to the existing family of 777, both carriers are open to fulfill the largest aircraft segment. Still I don't think neither carrier is pressed to place an order or decision for either type yet. Waiting a couple of years will allow them to evaluate a hopefully in-revenue service A350 against a frozen design 777X.


User currently offlineanfromme From Germany, joined Feb 2012, 533 posts, RR: 11
Reply 6, posted (1 year 11 months 3 weeks 5 days 3 hours ago) and read 14843 times:

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 2):
French president Hollande is scheduled to visit Japan from 6 to 8 June, is he just going to check out some flowers?

Don't think so. Cherry blossom season will be well over by then.
  

Quoting tkukucka (Reply 3):
But at this point its all speculation, because for many months now JAL has been in talks with Boeing for a possible 777x order.

That's all speculation, though, because for many months now, JAL has been in talks with Airbus about a possible 777x order.

Regarding JAL, there have been hints that they may actually order Airbus for the first time ever for a few months now. From their chairman's comments about JAL's single-source policy being unnatural, to news reports back in March that they may buy 20 A350
I'm surprised at the mention of ANA in all of this now as well.
Seems Airbus are really stepping up their efforts on cracking that market, and for a change it does look like they have a credible chance of succeeding. That in itself is the big news here (to me, anyway).



42
User currently onlinescbriml From United Kingdom, joined Jul 2003, 13573 posts, RR: 46
Reply 7, posted (1 year 11 months 3 weeks 5 days 2 hours ago) and read 14287 times:
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Quoting anfromme (Reply 6):
JAL has been in talks with Airbus about a possible 777x order.

Now that would be news!   

My understanding is that JAL will sign for 20 A350s at Paris.

If Airbus managed to snag ANA as well...  Wow!



Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
User currently offlinefrigatebird From Netherlands, joined Jun 2008, 1745 posts, RR: 1
Reply 8, posted (1 year 11 months 3 weeks 5 days 1 hour ago) and read 13698 times:

Quoting scbriml (Reply 7):
My understanding is that JAL will sign for 20 A350s at Paris.

That may be too soon. From the Boeing Grants Authority To Offer 777X thread:

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 213):
Some quotes from the Bloomberg article*: Airbus SAS is in discussions with Japan’s two biggest carriers about an order for its A350-1000, a long-range plane aimed at eroding Boeing Co. (BA)’s dominance in wide-body aircraft, three people familiar with the talks said.Negotiations with ANA Holdings Inc. (9202) and Japan Airlines Co. (9201) are advanced, and JAL may place an order by September to replace some of its older Boeing 777s, said two of the people, who asked not to be identified because talks are continuing

* http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-0...rom-largest-japanese-airlines.html
IMO JL and NH ordering the A350-1000 would be quite a blow to Boeing. Yes, the 777-9 would be a bit bigger and the 777-8 heavier than the A35J, but I bet Boeing would have both NH and JL high on their list as possible candidates for the 777X. Actually, there were reports Boeing had asked JL to be one of the launch customers for the 777X, along with BA. BA already went for the A35J...

I'm really not so sure about the business case for the 777X. EK will buy a huge number, but I doubt it will be as popular with other airlines as the 77W is. Would not be easy to recoup its development costs.



146,318/19/20/21,AB6,332,343,345,388,722,732/3/4/5/G/8,9,742,74E,744,752,762,763,772,77E,773,77W,AT4/7,ATP,CRK,E90,F50/7
User currently offlineanfromme From Germany, joined Feb 2012, 533 posts, RR: 11
Reply 9, posted (1 year 11 months 3 weeks 5 days 1 hour ago) and read 13318 times:

Quoting scbriml (Reply 7):
Now that would be news!   

Caught me there - I took c&p a bit too far in my attempt to point out that the original statement wasn't really saying much  



42
User currently offlineKarelXWB From Netherlands, joined Jul 2012, 14609 posts, RR: 43
Reply 10, posted (1 year 11 months 3 weeks 5 days ago) and read 12934 times:

Quoting anfromme (Reply 6):
Seems Airbus are really stepping up their efforts on cracking that market, and for a change it does look like they have a credible chance of succeeding.

I recall Airbus saying they are starting to market the A35J more aggressively.



Close, but no cigar http://vine.co/v/OjqeYWWpVWK
User currently onlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 32188 posts, RR: 85
Reply 11, posted (1 year 11 months 3 weeks 4 days 22 hours ago) and read 11535 times:
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Quoting frigatebird (Reply 8):
IMO JL and NH ordering the A350-1000 would be quite a blow to Boeing. Yes, the 777-9 would be a bit bigger and the 777-8 heavier than the A35J, but I bet Boeing would have both NH and JL high on their list as possible candidates for the 777X.

If the 777X is the wrong plane for NH and JL, why is it a "blow" if they don't order it?


I've heard that Boeing told JL to "name their own price" for the 747-8, but JL has yet to order it. If JL would lose money on every flight, then even getting the plane for free is pointless.

If NH and JL will make more money per flight operating the A350-1000 than the 777-8 or 777-9, then it would be madness for them to buy the Boeing product, no matter how tight they have been. Especially JL, who have just emerged from bankruptcy reorganization.



Quoting carpethead (Reply 5):
A350-1000 LHW (low-gross weight) would be great for 773 replacement at the end of the decade to go with the normal A350-1000.

I would not be surprised if they choose to order the 787-10 as a 777-300A replacement.


User currently offlinelightsaber From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 13970 posts, RR: 100
Reply 12, posted (1 year 11 months 3 weeks 4 days 18 hours ago) and read 9420 times:
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This is a shot across the bow...

This will be interesting to follow...

Quoting Stitch (Reply 11):
I've heard that Boeing told JL to "name their own price" for the 747-8, but JL has yet to order it. If JL would lose money on every flight, then even getting the plane for free is pointless.

Interesting. But I bet JL could make money on a 'free' plane.  

Lightsaber



Lawn set to brown: dang drought.
User currently offlinespacecadet From United States of America, joined Sep 2001, 3823 posts, RR: 11
Reply 13, posted (1 year 11 months 3 weeks 4 days 16 hours ago) and read 8437 times:

Quoting Stitch (Reply 11):
If JL would lose money on every flight, then even getting the plane for free is pointless.

There's almost no chance of that. Obviously, the cost of the plane itself is figured into its overall profitability projections by any airline. At $350 million each (list price), it would take a long, long time to make back that investment if you're making an average of, say, $10,000 per flight and making one or two flights per day. ($10,000 is actually a pretty realistic figure.) That's why not many airlines are buying the 747-8. An airplane that saves them $100 million on initial outlay while giving a slightly better CASM (albeit balanced by slightly worse ASM) is going to let them make their money back more quickly.

But if Boeing were to actually give JAL 747-8's for free, I can't see how they'd be anything but stupid not to take them. Worst case, they could park the damn things somewhere until they figured out how to make money on them. But with no $300-$350 million to try to make back, all they'd need to do would be to charge fares that cover the ongoing operating costs. They'd be able to undercut all of their competitors and still be profitable.

Let's put it this way: if an airline can purchase an A380, put it on a route and be profitable, then there's something seriously wrong if an airline can be *given* a 747-8, put it on a similar route and not be profitable. There's no way JAL could take a free 747-8 and put it on NRT-SFO or NRT-JFK and not make money.

I seriously doubt this is what Boeing offered. Boeing's got their own business considerations, and giving away a $350 million plane is probably not compatible with those considerations. More likely that they've said they'll do whatever they have to to beat any Airbus deal, which would include various tricks (leasing the plane back, early options for future orders, discounts on future orders, etc.) to get the total costs over the lifetime of the airplane to come in lower than Airbus. The problem for JAL is that a lot of those tricks would rely on future projections that may or may not come to pass, and obviously Boeing's analysis will be biased in their favor. So even "naming their price" for the 747-8 might not really get JAL what they'd want to take the 747-8 over a competing plane.



I'm tired of being a wanna-be league bowler. I wanna be a league bowler!
User currently offlineEPA001 From Netherlands, joined Sep 2006, 5263 posts, RR: 40
Reply 14, posted (1 year 11 months 3 weeks 4 days 14 hours ago) and read 8055 times:
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Quoting scbriml (Reply 7):
My understanding is that JAL will sign for 20 A350s at Paris.

That would be great!  .

Quoting scbriml (Reply 7):
If Airbus managed to snag ANA as well...  

That would even be better.  .

Quoting frigatebird (Reply 8):
three people familiar with the talks said.Negotiations with ANA Holdings Inc. (9202) and Japan Airlines Co. (9201) are advanced, and JAL may place an order by September to replace some of its older Boeing 777s,

Probably you are correct, but as long as they can get a signature under a sales contract I do not think Airbus will mind the date of signing such an order.


User currently onlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 32188 posts, RR: 85
Reply 15, posted (1 year 11 months 3 weeks 4 days 14 hours ago) and read 7966 times:
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Quoting spacecadet (Reply 13):
So even "naming their price" for the 747-8 might not really get JAL what they'd want to take the 747-8 over a competing plane.


And if the 777-8 and/or 777-9 cannot get NH and JL what they want to order it over the A350-1000, then is is really a "blow" to Boeing or a "failure" by Boeing to not secure a 777X order from either carrier and for Airbus to do so with a plane that does get JL and NH what they want for a price they would take?


User currently onlinetortugamon From United States of America, joined Apr 2013, 3866 posts, RR: 12
Reply 16, posted (1 year 11 months 3 weeks 4 days 13 hours ago) and read 7834 times:

Quoting Stitch (Reply 11):
I've heard that Boeing told JL to "name their own price" for the 747-8

Less than 10 years ago JL was operating 76 747s (the largest operator) and it is amazing that the industry has changed that much that they no longer have a need for one 747-8...and apparently they do not have a need for an aircraft with the same seat count as the 744.
Quoting Stitch (Reply 1):
But I don't see either finding a role for the 777X.
Quoting frigatebird (Reply 8):
I'm really not so sure about the business case for the 777X. EK will buy a huge number, but I doubt it will be as popular with other airlines as the 77W is. Would not be easy to recoup its development costs.

I do not think I would go that far. This is a big hit, no doubt but Boeing has to know that they are going to split this 350-406 seat market. Airlines who are comfortable with 10 abreast Y & 7 abreast J and/or have ULH or payload needs, will probably prefer the 777X. BTW, airlines with these preferences are over half of 77W sales. As this is not going to be clean sheet, recouping the developing costs should not take more than 150 frames and I suspect they will get that from just one carrier or they will not launch.

tortugamon


User currently offlinemariner From New Zealand, joined Nov 2001, 26335 posts, RR: 84
Reply 17, posted (1 year 11 months 3 weeks 4 days 13 hours ago) and read 7823 times:
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Quoting lightsaber (Reply 12):
Interesting. But I bet JL could make money on a 'free' plane.
[quote=Bogi,reply=0]"Airbus SAS is in discussions with Japan’s two biggest carriers about an order for its A350-1000, a long-range plane aimed at eroding Boeing Co. (BA)’s dominance in wide-body aircraft, three people familiar with the talks said."

I wonder why people leak stuff like this before it happens?

What do these "three people familiar" hope to achieve?

mariner

[Edited 2013-05-15 17:14:17]


aeternum nauta
User currently onlinetortugamon From United States of America, joined Apr 2013, 3866 posts, RR: 12
Reply 18, posted (1 year 11 months 3 weeks 4 days 12 hours ago) and read 7761 times:

Quoting mariner (Reply 17):
I wonder why people leak stuff like this before it happens?

Well, first of all, people like to feel important and leaking private important info does that. Basic human nature and that should not be a surprise. The more cynical side of this is that this is no accident at all and they want to tell Boeing that they are really thinking about going to Airbus which will force Boeing to drop their price on the 777X even more.

Honestly, I am more surprised when potential deals do not leak before hand. There really is not much benefit to keeping it quiet other than signaling your plan to your competitors and this business is not a zero sum game like it is for Airbus and Boeing.

tortugamon


User currently offlinemariner From New Zealand, joined Nov 2001, 26335 posts, RR: 84
Reply 19, posted (1 year 11 months 3 weeks 4 days 12 hours ago) and read 7676 times:
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Quoting tortugamon (Reply 18):
Well, first of all, people like to feel important and leaking private important info does that. Basic human nature and that should not be a surprise.

Anonymously? Oh, well, maybe, but I've never seen the fun in that.

I assume there is some kind of agenda, but I puzzle as to what. It's easy enough for an airline - especially in this circumstance - to tell one manufacturer they'd had a great deal from the rival and will they match or better it.

mariner



aeternum nauta
User currently onlinetortugamon From United States of America, joined Apr 2013, 3866 posts, RR: 12
Reply 20, posted (1 year 11 months 3 weeks 4 days 11 hours ago) and read 7604 times:

Quoting mariner (Reply 19):
Anonymously? Oh, well, maybe, but I've never seen the fun in that.

Maybe not you, but don't you know someone like that? All it takes is one and there have to be dozens of people that are in the know.

tortugamon


User currently offlineAR385 From Mexico, joined Nov 2003, 7097 posts, RR: 34
Reply 21, posted (1 year 11 months 3 weeks 4 days 11 hours ago) and read 7517 times:
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Quoting mariner (Reply 17):
I wonder why people leak stuff like this before it happens?

Because this:

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 18):
The more cynical side of this is that this is no accident at all and they want to tell Boeing that they are really thinking about going to Airbus which will force Boeing to drop their price on the 777X even more.

However, there´s no cynical side to it. It´s called "Game Theory" and it´s pretty effective if done right.


User currently offlinemariner From New Zealand, joined Nov 2001, 26335 posts, RR: 84
Reply 22, posted (1 year 11 months 3 weeks 4 days 11 hours ago) and read 7469 times:
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Quoting AR385 (Reply 21):
However, there´s no cynical side to it. It´s called "Game Theory" and it´s pretty effective if done right.

I think it may be not much more than a theory.

I know of one airline who didn't like the prices from one manufacturer and went to the second - but the second manufacturer (initially) showed them the door because they didn't intend to be used as a bargaining tool in order to get better prices from the first manufacturer.

I think the folk at Airbus and Boeing are very well aware when games are being played.

mariner



aeternum nauta
User currently offlinebillreid From Netherlands, joined Jun 2006, 1086 posts, RR: 0
Reply 23, posted (1 year 11 months 3 weeks 4 days 10 hours ago) and read 7457 times:

This is just part of sales.
Just because JL is speaking to AB it is the end of the world for BA. Not a chance. As soon as the meeting is over JL will be talking about what they have to offer.
Without any AB in the fleet the cost of starting with a new type is FAR FAR FAR more than just the acft. Start talking about mx and flight training with AB's 888,888,888 different laws on flying.

Free, are we going to be any more silly?
I am sure that if BA would give JL free B748's then AB would throw in six A380's with every A350 ordered and an additional 11,234 free A320's and the french governments tax revenues for the next twenty thousand milleniums and more.

Free aircraft is a ridiculous thought and discussion.

Every airline has dialogues with every manufacturer. And then they go back and forth.



Some people don't get it. Business is about making MONEY!
User currently offlineAR385 From Mexico, joined Nov 2003, 7097 posts, RR: 34
Reply 24, posted (1 year 11 months 3 weeks 4 days 10 hours ago) and read 7358 times:
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Quoting mariner (Reply 22):
I think it may be not much more than a theory.

I never said it works on all cases. I also said:

Quoting AR385 (Reply 21):
it´s pretty effective if done right.

It´s one more tool out there in the business world. I´m sure JL and NH are using it.


25 malaysia : Didn't Airbus give away A300 for $1 or something to promote it to some airline? Laker? Eastern? or Pan Am? don't remember which one.
26 motorhussy : If that were indeed the case, you'd have been talking about something that happened 40-years ago... and if that were the case, it would have appeared
27 spacecadet : "Initially" being the key word. Any salesman will tell you that all he's got to do to close a sale is get the customer on the lot. It may not always
28 tkukucka : Could not be more right.
29 aaron747 : There's a political dimension to this as well. The Japanese aerospace industry has been building their supplier ties to Airbus considerably over the l
30 Bogi : Had Japan, ANA and JAL until now dislikes opposite Europe and Airbus? If so, why really?
31 PM : And let's not forget many years of cooperation between RR and Japanese industry. Recall that ANA chose RR for their 787s and were about to order Tren
32 anfromme : The sources are not anonymous to whoever they're leaking their information to, which means they'll probably be asked for more info in the future. Eno
33 jfk777 : It would be a "failure" by Boeing if ANA and JAL switched from 777 to the new "miracle" airplane, the A350-1000. How can a 777-9X be too big for ANa &
34 BlueSky1976 : ...because 777-300 is carrying roughly 300 people in their configuration and they don't have enough traffic to justify putting another 50 seats into
35 angmoh : Not long ago the new JAL chairman stated that it was incomprehensible for an airline the size of JAL to have a single supplier strategy. Also it was
36 EddieDude : I agree with AR385 comments. This has happened many times. The Wall Street Journal had some years ago a very interesting article about how IB had Air
37 jfk777 : I don't question Airbus ability to make a good airplane, but Boeing needs to stop being so complacent. Boeing is not offering these airline a new pla
38 mariner : One can only hope the leakers are right, because they're going to look foolish if the deal falls apart - perhaps because of their leaks. marinerf
39 tortugamon : The relationship between Japanese manufacturers and Boeing goes back a very long time. Airbus must primarily use Spain, England, France and Germany f
40 jfk777 : I don't question Airbus ability to make a good airplane, but Boeing needs to stop being so complacent. Boeing is not offering these airline a new pla
41 anfromme : That article was recently linked here in another thread - I read it and to me it didn't look at all like the Airbus order was a foregone conclusion.
42 carpethead : Actually, more closer to 250. ANA has one version that seats only 214.
43 spacecadet : Restructuring was probably the wrong word to use. I did know that they were out of bankruptcy and had had an IPO. What I meant was the literal defini
44 carpethead : With the last MD-90 out the door, they are done with with re-fleeting. Most of it was finished two years ago when the MD-81, 747s, and A300s all left
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