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Possible CSeries Order By EasyJet  
User currently offlineKarelXWB From Netherlands, joined Jul 2012, 11171 posts, RR: 33
Posted (1 year 3 months 5 days 15 hours ago) and read 30559 times:

This news just came in:

> EasyJet's fleet replacement order will not just be from Airbus or Boeing but will also include the CSeries.
> Sub-150 seater needed for routes with low passenger demand.
> Order could be officially announced during the Bourget airshow.
> Also talks about an Air Canada order for 100+ planes with the possible inclusion of the CSeries; to be announced in the coming months.

Article in French here.


Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity. And I'm not sure about the universe.
139 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineRussianJet From Belgium, joined Jul 2007, 7694 posts, RR: 21
Reply 1, posted (1 year 3 months 5 days 15 hours ago) and read 30545 times:
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Sweet! Please God let it turn into reality. I can't help but think, however, that they are probably only half-serious at best about the type, but perhaps I'm being a little harsh and cynical?


✈ Every strike of the hammer is a blow against the enemy. ✈
User currently offlinePugman211 From UK - England, joined Dec 2012, 104 posts, RR: 0
Reply 2, posted (1 year 3 months 5 days 15 hours ago) and read 30470 times:
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Interesting, EasyJet are still taking new A320 aircraft.

User currently online817Dreamliiner From Montserrat, joined Jul 2008, 2290 posts, RR: 1
Reply 3, posted (1 year 3 months 5 days 15 hours ago) and read 30450 times:

Great, would love to see some more orders for the CSeries! Wouldn't mind seeing a few here at MAN  


Reality be Rent. Synapse, break! Vanishment, This World!
User currently offlinetimboflier215 From United Kingdom, joined May 2005, 1334 posts, RR: 1
Reply 4, posted (1 year 3 months 5 days 14 hours ago) and read 30103 times:

Would not surprise me - they don't need the range of the A319neo on most of their routes, and the lighter CSeries should kill the neo economically intra-Europe. They should also be able to get the CSeries earlier than a neo, due to the neo having sold so well.

I do see the A320neo/ 737 - MAX 8 in U2's future though....


User currently offlinePaolo92 From Italy, joined Oct 2007, 260 posts, RR: 0
Reply 5, posted (1 year 3 months 5 days 13 hours ago) and read 29827 times:

Nice to see that the CSeries is back among the options for easyJet's fleet replacement!
I say back, because it was already disclosed by McCall that the options they were looking at were Airbus, Boeing and Bombardier. Then since november last year, every article concerning the easyJet fleet replacement only mentioned Airbus and Boeing!
The CS300XCS (eXtra Capacity Seating) is comparable to the U2 A319s at 156 seats.



Each evening, stars come out their daylight hiding places... But one of those, will be my wingtip, passing over...
User currently offlinegilesdavies From United Kingdom, joined Dec 2003, 3011 posts, RR: 2
Reply 6, posted (1 year 3 months 5 days 12 hours ago) and read 29736 times:

Interesting if this did happen, but I am not too sure it will any time soon...

I have read earlier this week, that easyJet are unlikely to place any orders until towards the end of the year, as they will have a fight in their hands with Stelios, who is against growth and wants to instead focus on maximising the profits of the business.

Also I have read on here and in other news articles, that easyJet has previously regretted purchasing the A319, and would rather focus on an aircraft in the 150-200 seat market, hence why we are seeing the growth of the A320 in the fleet...

These articles have previously stated the operating costs of the A319 compared to the A320 are negligible for the airline, and the extra seats they can sell on busy flights, far out weighs the empty seats on quieter flights that they might be able to fill on an A319 compared to an A320.

Initially when the A319's were ordered, easyJet's business model was to fly aircraft in the 150 seat range, hence why they were flying 737-300/700's at the time. But as they have seen their business grow and have followed the trend with other Low Cost Carriers that now consider the 737-800 and A320, as the standard for this sector of the airline industry.


User currently offlineawacsooner From United States of America, joined Jan 2008, 1894 posts, RR: 1
Reply 7, posted (1 year 3 months 5 days 12 hours ago) and read 29689 times:

Quoting gilesdavies (Reply 6):
ut as they have seen their business grow and have followed the trend with other Low Cost Carriers that now consider the 737-800 and A320, as the standard for this sector of the airline industry.

So why not go one step further and go 739/321?


User currently offlinetimboflier215 From United Kingdom, joined May 2005, 1334 posts, RR: 1
Reply 8, posted (1 year 3 months 5 days 12 hours ago) and read 29679 times:

Quoting gilesdavies (Reply 6):
These articles have previously stated the operating costs of the A319 compared to the A320 are negligible for the airline

That may be true, but on most of their sectors, the CSeries should handily beat the A320neo in terms of efficiency, so unless you are filling the extra 30-odd seats, the CSeries makes sense (ignoring fleet commonality etc for now!).


User currently offlinePaolo92 From Italy, joined Oct 2007, 260 posts, RR: 0
Reply 9, posted (1 year 3 months 5 days 12 hours ago) and read 29605 times:

Quoting gilesdavies (Reply 6):

The point is, if they actually take the CS300, it will have the same CASM as a 180-seat A320neo, while having a substantially lower trip cost and lower fuel burn.
They currently have 155x A319 (156-seat) and 57x A320 (180-seat) +13 A320 still on order (source: Airbus).
I guess that even if they will aim at growing in terms of seating capacity, they would still need a 150-160 seat sized aircraft. Otherwise it would be a massive upgauge in capacity.
I think that easyJet could place an order for something like 50 CS300 and 100 A320neo (plus additional option to convert as needed). And if they want to increase further their seat capacity they could add some A321neo....



Each evening, stars come out their daylight hiding places... But one of those, will be my wingtip, passing over...
User currently offlinearrow From Canada, joined Jun 2002, 2676 posts, RR: 2
Reply 10, posted (1 year 3 months 5 days 12 hours ago) and read 29596 times:
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Story in English in Montreal Gazette:

EasyJet hints at CSeries order

MONTREAL— It sounds unusually categorical: easyJet Airline Co., it appears, is about to order some CSeries airliners from Bombardier Inc., perhaps at the Paris air show next month.

http://www.montrealgazette.com/busin...s+CSeries+order/8396899/story.html



Never let the facts get in the way of a good story.
User currently offlineBlueSky1976 From Poland, joined Jul 2004, 1874 posts, RR: 4
Reply 11, posted (1 year 3 months 5 days 5 hours ago) and read 28378 times:

If this comes true, this will be the equivalent of JetBlue's famous E190 order.

A certain member of this forum will have to put his foot in his mouth when that happens.

GO CSERIES!!!



STOP TERRORRUSSIA!!!
User currently offlinefrigatebird From Netherlands, joined Jun 2008, 1583 posts, RR: 1
Reply 12, posted (1 year 3 months 5 days 3 hours ago) and read 27655 times:

Quoting gilesdavies (Reply 6):
Also I have read on here and in other news articles, that easyJet has previously regretted purchasing the A319, and would rather focus on an aircraft in the 150-200 seat market, hence why we are seeing the growth of the A320 in the fleet...

Well, they've discovered that flying an A320 isn't that much more expensive than an A319, and those extra seats are almost 'free'. Same reason why many airlines go for the 738 rather than the 73G.
It will be different with the CS300 though, it will be a lot cheaper to fly than the A319 and also the A320NEO. So it would make very good sense to have a fleet of CS300's for thinner routes. In the end, I expect the bigger part of U2's fleet to be A320NEO's, but at least 1/3 fleet CS300's       Can´t really imagine U2 ordering the 737MAX   



146,318/19/20/21,AB6,332,343,345,388,722,732/3/4/5/G/8,9,742,74E,744,752,762,763,772,77E,773,77W,AT4/7,ATP,CRK,E90,F50/7
User currently onlineAirbusA6 From United Kingdom, joined Apr 2005, 2012 posts, RR: 0
Reply 13, posted (1 year 3 months 5 days 1 hour ago) and read 26733 times:

Yes, it seemed curious that U2 bought the 73G/A319 when FR went (exclusively) for the larger 738.

An order for the C series from a respected LCC like U2 would be a massive vote of confidence in the programme, I'm sure U2 could negotiate a very good deal that reflects that...



it's the bus to stansted (now renamed national express a4 to ruin my username)
User currently offlinescouseflyer From United Kingdom, joined Apr 2006, 3385 posts, RR: 9
Reply 14, posted (1 year 3 months 4 days 23 hours ago) and read 25523 times:

Love the variety that this order could provide to the increasingly uniforms fleets at the UK airports.

Interesting that single type, single offering Low Cost carriers are gradually morphing into legacy carriers with mixed fleets and multiple hubs. They;ll be going longhaul soon!


User currently offlineBongodog1964 From United Kingdom, joined Oct 2006, 3544 posts, RR: 3
Reply 15, posted (1 year 3 months 4 days 22 hours ago) and read 25342 times:

A report In the UK press yesterday clearly stated that the 319 is too small for u2 and they are looking towards more 320 sized planes. This of course is totally at odds with this thread.

User currently offlinelightsaber From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 12981 posts, RR: 100
Reply 16, posted (1 year 3 months 4 days 21 hours ago) and read 24901 times:
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I can only hope this happens. After Bombardier lost some large orders, this could be the game changing order. The C-series needs just *one* large order (50+) to put itself on the map. The type has enough smaller orders to launch from.

Quoting RussianJet (Reply 1):

Sweet! Please God let it turn into reality.

I think we're on the same page.  
Quoting Pugman211 (Reply 2):
Interesting, EasyJet are still taking new A320 aircraft.

I bet they still take A321NEOs. But a reasonably large C-series order will give them *far* more negotiating leverage.

Quoting arrow (Reply 10):
perhaps at the Paris air show next month.

I hoped for a few C-series orders at Paris. I'd be happy with just one large order...

Quoting BlueSky1976 (Reply 11):

If this comes true, this will be the equivalent of JetBlue's famous E190 order.

  

Quoting Bongodog1964 (Reply 15):

A report In the UK press yesterday clearly stated that the 319 is too small for u2

Too small for the per flight costs. G4 (or was it NK?) noted that the A320 has a 14% lower CASM than the A319. As we already known:

Quoting frigatebird (Reply 12):
Well, they've discovered that flying an A320 isn't that much more expensive than an A319,

Which is why I'm surprised anyone is ordering the A319NEO as the cost delta will shrink! Same with the -7MAX. Why did WN order that size?

Quoting AirbusA6 (Reply 13):
I'm sure U2 could negotiate a very good deal that reflects that...

   I hope this deal goes through...

We can now suspect for whom the high density C-series was targeting...

Now to see if any of the rumors of FlyDubai and the C-series pan out... That is the only other large order I've heard potential on since AirAsia turned down the C-series. But that would be announced at the Dubai air show, not Paris...

Lightsaber



Societies that achieve a critical mass of ideas achieve self sustaining growth; others stagnate.
User currently offlinegilesdavies From United Kingdom, joined Dec 2003, 3011 posts, RR: 2
Reply 17, posted (1 year 3 months 4 days 21 hours ago) and read 24647 times:

Does the C-Series have the range to fly all of easyJet's routes with a full load, in a high density configuration?

For example easyJet flies MAN/LTN-SSH which is around 2500 miles!

The only source I can see is on WIkipedia, where the given maximum range is 2950 miles, but that is highly unlikely to be the range at maximum weight. As the ranges usually quoted are in a lower config and flying in optimum conditions.


User currently offlinelightsaber From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 12981 posts, RR: 100
Reply 18, posted (1 year 3 months 4 days 21 hours ago) and read 24568 times:
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Quoting gilesdavies (Reply 17):
Does the C-Series have the range to fly all of easyJet's routes with a full load, in a high density configuration?

   Not yet. There will be range improvements with time and the A319s won't go away quickly.

The C-series save a fortune in fuel. A sub-fleet makes sense. As others have noted, about 1/3rd of their fleet.

Lightsaber



Societies that achieve a critical mass of ideas achieve self sustaining growth; others stagnate.
User currently offlineBlueSky1976 From Poland, joined Jul 2004, 1874 posts, RR: 4
Reply 19, posted (1 year 3 months 4 days 19 hours ago) and read 23837 times:

Quoting gilesdavies (Reply 17):
Does the C-Series have the range to fly all of easyJet's routes with a full load, in a high density configuration?

For example easyJet flies MAN/LTN-SSH which is around 2500 miles!

I am quite positive CSeries will not be flown by easyJet on such route, if purchased. That's A320Neo/737MAX - type route, for 180 passenger configuration.



STOP TERRORRUSSIA!!!
User currently offlinefrigatebird From Netherlands, joined Jun 2008, 1583 posts, RR: 1
Reply 20, posted (1 year 3 months 4 days 19 hours ago) and read 23768 times:

Quoting BlueSky1976 (Reply 19):
For example easyJet flies MAN/LTN-SSH which is around 2500 miles!
I am quite positive CSeries will not be flown by easyJet on such route, if purchased. That's A320Neo/737MAX - type route, for 180 passenger configuration.

Or even A321NEO...   



146,318/19/20/21,AB6,332,343,345,388,722,732/3/4/5/G/8,9,742,74E,744,752,762,763,772,77E,773,77W,AT4/7,ATP,CRK,E90,F50/7
User currently offlinelightsaber From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 12981 posts, RR: 100
Reply 21, posted (1 year 3 months 4 days 17 hours ago) and read 22692 times:
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Quoting frigatebird (Reply 20):
Or even A321NEO...

Concur. I see U2 upgauging most (if not all future orders) to the A321.

Lightsaber



Societies that achieve a critical mass of ideas achieve self sustaining growth; others stagnate.
User currently offlinedforce1 From Canada, joined Jul 2005, 505 posts, RR: 0
Reply 22, posted (1 year 3 months 4 days 17 hours ago) and read 22480 times:

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 16):
AirAsia turned down the C-series

What happened to this? Why did they get turned down? Is there the possibility of an order in the future now that Air Asia will be going into the competitive Indian and Philippine markets?

What other airlines are potential C-Series customers?


User currently offlinetimboflier215 From United Kingdom, joined May 2005, 1334 posts, RR: 1
Reply 23, posted (1 year 3 months 4 days 17 hours ago) and read 22306 times:

Quoting gilesdavies (Reply 17):
Does the C-Series have the range to fly all of easyJet's routes with a full load, in a high density configuration?

No, but it has the range to fly the vast majority of them, hence why it's a serious contender. A320neo/A321neo can cover the other routes which the CSeries can't fly/ require more capacity


User currently offlineBlueSky1976 From Poland, joined Jul 2004, 1874 posts, RR: 4
Reply 24, posted (1 year 3 months 4 days 16 hours ago) and read 22141 times:

Quoting dforce1 (Reply 22):
What happened to this? Why did they get turned down?

Leahy made Tony F. an offer he could not refuse. Godfather style.

[Edited 2013-05-17 10:59:23]

[Edited 2013-05-17 10:59:47]


STOP TERRORRUSSIA!!!
User currently offlinePlymSpotter From Spain, joined Jun 2004, 11637 posts, RR: 60
Reply 25, posted (1 year 3 months 4 days 16 hours ago) and read 22741 times:

CS100/300 and A320/321NEO... that would be one heck of a fleet.

Even if they don't go for the smaller CS100 as well, the CS300 will make a huge difference to shorter regional routes where frequency is more important than price for a good proportion of the market.

Quoting dforce1 (Reply 22):
What other airlines are potential C-Series customers?

Anyone operating large regional jets, the A318/319, the 736/73G or the B717/MD87. Quite a few in other words.


Dan  



...love is just a camouflage for what resembles rage again...
User currently offlinelightsaber From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 12981 posts, RR: 100
Reply 26, posted (1 year 3 months 4 days 15 hours ago) and read 22181 times:
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Quoting dforce1 (Reply 22):
Is there the possibility of an order in the future now that Air Asia will be going into the competitive Indian and Philippine markets?

When? November:
http://www.aviationweek.com/Article....e-xml/awx_11_23_2012_p0-520457.xml

There is hope in the future for AirAsia, but not this round. Wait two years or so...


Quoting dforce1 (Reply 22):
What other airlines are potential C-Series customers?

FlyDubai
Qatar
Gulf Air (if they get in better financial health). The C-series is ideal for the mid-east.

Every small European airline will be given a sales pitch.

We hear about AC/Westjet, but I think they'll sit on the sidelines for a few years.

IMHO, the airframe would serve B6 or DL very well... Yes, I'm aware of DL's 717 T-Tail fetish...

UA talked to Bombardier, but I have heard nothing in the years since and with the Embraer order, it looks grim for Bombardier. I expect UA is a no go  http://blog.seattlepi.com/aerospace/...ed-to-consider-bombardier-cseries/

The only big sales campaigns that I was aware of were Easyjet, FlyDubai (still going), and Air Asia.
We can talk about LH, but they'll wait until LZ proves out the CS100s.

Bombardier has an issue, until production ramps up, costs are high. Until they can sell more, they will find it tougher to compete. If they can break 400 orders, the economics change both for building and supporting the plane. The current book is at 145. U2 could add about 50 more easily and start the 'game change.' IMHO, Bombardier will offer a better deal due to the need to push orders over 200 for marketing purposes.

Lightsaber



Societies that achieve a critical mass of ideas achieve self sustaining growth; others stagnate.
User currently offlineJoeCanuck From Canada, joined Dec 2005, 5416 posts, RR: 30
Reply 27, posted (1 year 3 months 4 days 14 hours ago) and read 22325 times:

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 16):
Why did WN order that size?

Even though it makes better headlines to talk about the first -7 sales, in reality, this is a deferral. They put off their original order for 30 -700's to be ordered in the next couple of years, and ordered -7's to be delivered a few years later.

That being said, WN can take -8's, (which I suspect they will do), or even if they're feeling wacky -9's, instead of the -7's.

Even though I don't think it would take a lot of effort to shrink the -8, it's probably in Boeing's best interest to 'encourage' customers to go with the -8 instead of the -7.

With both Boeing and Airbus delaying their smallest single aisles until last, I suspect they are tacitly ceding the under 150 seat market to the CSeries. I have my doubts that the MAX -7 and the 319 NEO ever see the light of day.

The real fight will be if, (I believe 'when'), BBD offers a CS500, with seating of up to as high as 180.

As for Easyjet, the CSeries has had so many announced 'almost' orders that came to nothing that I'll wait until it actually happens before passing out cigars.

[Edited 2013-05-17 13:35:09]


What the...?
User currently offlineatct From United States of America, joined Mar 2001, 2283 posts, RR: 38
Reply 28, posted (1 year 3 months 4 days 14 hours ago) and read 22221 times:

Quoting dforce1 (Reply 22):
What other airlines are potential C-Series customers?

Also add on BAe-146/ARJ and Fokker operators.

atct



"The way to get started is to quit talking and begin doing." - Walt Disney
User currently offlineElbowRoom From United Kingdom, joined Jun 2008, 179 posts, RR: 0
Reply 29, posted (1 year 3 months 4 days 14 hours ago) and read 22209 times:

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 27):
As for Easyjet, the CSeries has had so many announced 'almost' orders that came to nothing that I'll wait until it actually happens before passing out cigars.

I think it may happen this time. U2 is the kind of progressive airline that might see the value in this and be prepared to take the risk. Bravo if it works out.

ER


User currently offlinegolfradio From Canada, joined Jun 2009, 757 posts, RR: 2
Reply 30, posted (1 year 3 months 4 days 14 hours ago) and read 22120 times:

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 27):
As for Easyjet, the CSeries has had so many announced 'almost' orders that came to nothing that I'll wait until it actually happens before passing out cigars.

  

I'll believe it when I see the airplane fly in U2 colors. I have a feeling they might just use the CSeries as a bait.



User currently offlinedforce1 From Canada, joined Jul 2005, 505 posts, RR: 0
Reply 31, posted (1 year 3 months 3 days 3 hours ago) and read 21120 times:

Quoting atct (Reply 28):
Also add on BAe-146/ARJ and Fokker operators.

Who is the largest operator of Bae-146 aircraft? Have they considered the C-Series yet? I know the Swiss order is to replace their Bae-146 fleet.


User currently offlinesweair From Sweden, joined Nov 2011, 1817 posts, RR: 0
Reply 32, posted (1 year 3 months 3 days 3 hours ago) and read 21070 times:

C-series is the best choice below 150 seats IMO. But where does a fleet size start to pay in commonality?

In these days when every drop of fuel counts I am surpriced that we have not seen more C-series orders.

The A319/737-700 are really suboptimal compared.


User currently offlinePaolo92 From Italy, joined Oct 2007, 260 posts, RR: 0
Reply 33, posted (1 year 3 months 3 days ago) and read 20843 times:

Quoting dforce1 (Reply 31):

Also Malmo Aviation will replace its whole fleet of Avro RJ with CS100 and 300.

Quoting sweair (Reply 32):
But where does a fleet size start to pay in commonality?

During the "investors day" in March, where the FTV1 was showcased, Nico Buchholz (fleet management-LH Group), said that fleet commonality benefits diminish when an airline buys at least 20 of the type.



Each evening, stars come out their daylight hiding places... But one of those, will be my wingtip, passing over...
User currently offlineRussianJet From Belgium, joined Jul 2007, 7694 posts, RR: 21
Reply 34, posted (1 year 3 months 2 days 23 hours ago) and read 20757 times:
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Quoting golfradio (Reply 30):
I'll believe it when I see the airplane fly in U2 colors. I have a feeling they might just use the CSeries as a bait.

This, of course, is the biggest fear here - that the C Series will purely be used to extract a better deal from the original favourites.



✈ Every strike of the hammer is a blow against the enemy. ✈
User currently offlineKarelXWB From Netherlands, joined Jul 2012, 11171 posts, RR: 33
Reply 35, posted (1 year 3 months 2 days 23 hours ago) and read 20698 times:

Quoting BlueSky1976 (Reply 24):
Leahy made Tony F. an offer he could not refuse. Godfather style.

Tony and John are personal friends, I hardly doubt is was "Godfather style".



Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity. And I'm not sure about the universe.
User currently offlineby738 From Tonga, joined Sep 2000, 2292 posts, RR: 1
Reply 36, posted (1 year 3 months 2 days 23 hours ago) and read 20697 times:

Quoting RussianJet (Reply 34):
This, of course, is the biggest fear here

Fear for who ? The thousands of Airbus (or Boeing) employees will not be fearing it.


User currently offlineplanemaker From Tuvalu, joined Aug 2003, 6144 posts, RR: 34
Reply 37, posted (1 year 3 months 2 days 18 hours ago) and read 20429 times:

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 16):
Which is why I'm surprised anyone is ordering the A319NEO as the cost delta will shrink! Same with the -7MAX. Why did WN order that size?

As I mentioned earlier, virtually everyone on here was surprised when AA announced their 65 A319CEO order last month (along with the 65 A321CEO's). Conventional wisdom on A.net is why would AA be "saddling" themselves with the A319 for 15-20 years... yet they did. And don't be surprised when AA will be choosing some A319NEO's later this year when they split out the 130 NEO family orders they have with deliveries starting in 2017. The same will happen with MAX orders. Many carriers will be splitting their orders among all the variants, including the -7.

Quoting sweair (Reply 32):
C-series is the best choice below 150 seats IMO. But where does a fleet size start to pay in commonality?

It really all depends upon the individual carrier as each has a different threshold for various reasons.

Quoting sweair (Reply 32):
In these days when every drop of fuel counts I am surpriced that we have not seen more C-series orders.

Because it is much more than just about "every drop of fuel" that counts... it is total costs - not just the "0-60" numbers. Look no further than the Airbus/CFM deal for Frontier.

Quoting Paolo92 (Reply 33):
During the "investors day" in March, where the FTV1 was showcased, Nico Buchholz (fleet management-LH Group), said that fleet commonality benefits diminish when an airline buys at least 20 of the type.

Yes, but it is all relative... 20 would work for LH for several reasons. A while ago he also said that the CSeries would outperform the A380 and the 747-8, which is true for LH's LF's and configuration, etc.

Quoting RussianJet (Reply 34):
This, of course, is the biggest fear here - that the C Series will purely be used to extract a better deal from the original favourites.

They can still use the CSeries as a chip... and... still end up ordering it if all the purchasing criteria still lines up for them.



Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
User currently offlineRussianJet From Belgium, joined Jul 2007, 7694 posts, RR: 21
Reply 38, posted (1 year 3 months 2 days 16 hours ago) and read 20254 times:
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Quoting by738 (Reply 36):
Fear for who ? The thousands of Airbus (or Boeing) employees will not be fearing it.

I would have thought it was obvious by implication, but just in case it really does need spelling out - for those of us who are aviation enthusiasts and like seeing more than just A or B on any given day.



✈ Every strike of the hammer is a blow against the enemy. ✈
User currently offlineF9animal From United States of America, joined Dec 2004, 5025 posts, RR: 28
Reply 39, posted (1 year 3 months 2 days 16 hours ago) and read 20248 times:

I really think the C Series is just starting to get warmed up. I think it will sell like hot cakes!


I Am A Different Animal!!
User currently offlinequeb From Canada, joined May 2010, 663 posts, RR: 3
Reply 40, posted (1 year 2 months 3 weeks 3 days 20 hours ago) and read 19166 times:

From Aspire Aviation:

UK’s easyJet likely to defect to Boeing 737 MAX, Bombardier CSeries

http://www.aspireaviation.com/2013/0...27/boeing-lost-grounds-all-fronts/


User currently offlineAither From South Korea, joined Oct 2004, 858 posts, RR: 0
Reply 41, posted (1 year 2 months 3 weeks 3 days 19 hours ago) and read 18889 times:

For utilization, crew, maintenance etc. the capacity to switch 2 aircraft easily is very cost effective.

So how a sub fleet would make sense ? to have a smaller aircraft to open more destinations ? but small destinations are traditionally low yield as well, and do not require frequencies. Therefore as Ryanair is doing, if the destination is small, just operate less frequencies.
Damaging 80% of the operations for some kind of gain on 20% of the network does not seem logical. In addition it goes against the trend of larger aircraft being used. So if it happens It would be interesting to see their plans.

[Edited 2013-05-27 08:23:39]


Never trust the obvious
User currently offlineart From United Kingdom, joined Feb 2005, 3382 posts, RR: 1
Reply 42, posted (1 year 2 months 3 weeks 2 days 22 hours ago) and read 18113 times:

Quoting Paolo92 (Reply 5):
The CS300XCS (eXtra Capacity Seating) is comparable to the U2 A319s at 156 seats.

A bit off topic, but why go for a 156 seat aircraft if it needs 1 more flight attendant than a 149 seat aircraft? How many of those last 7 seats on an A319 need to be filled to pay the cost of 1 more flight attendant? Now that a sub 150 seat aircraft is available, why not buy that?

CS300 + A320 seems a better mix than A319 + A320 to me. Commonality issue: what is the minimum CS300 sub-fleet size required to overcome the commonality advantages of flying A319 if CS300 CASM is significantly lower than A319?


User currently offliner2rho From Germany, joined Feb 2007, 2596 posts, RR: 1
Reply 43, posted (1 year 2 months 3 weeks 2 days 22 hours ago) and read 18084 times:

Basically the decision for U2 is whether they want a split fleet or not. If they do, the CSeries is a perfect fit.
IMO U2 has reached a fleet size where a split is viable. Commonality was king in the 90's when fuel was dirt cheap, but nowadays the numbers are more complex and it can make sense, for large enough airlines, to have subfleets optimized for each mission. A CS300 / A320/321NEO combo would be ideal in that sense.

Quoting AirbusA6 (Reply 13):
it seemed curious that U2 bought the 73G/A319 when FR went (exclusively) for the larger 738.
Quoting Aither (Reply 41):
to have a smaller aircraft to open more destinations ? but small destinations are traditionally low yield as well, and do not require frequencies. Therefore as Ryanair is doing, if the destination is small, just operate less frequencies.

Keep in mind FR and U2 have different business models. FR doesn't mind flying only twice weekly to fill a 738 to a small regional destination as they are chasing the leisure holiday traveler. U2 flies to main airports and likes to maintain higher frequencies to cater to the cost-conscious business traveler. Therefore, in order to not fly empty aircraft around, U2 has to have a smaller aircraft size. Nevertheless, for the trunk routes they are increasingly upgauging to A320's.


User currently offlinelightsaber From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 12981 posts, RR: 100
Reply 44, posted (1 year 2 months 3 weeks 2 days 22 hours ago) and read 17956 times:
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Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 27):
That being said, WN can take -8's, (which I suspect they will do), or even if they're feeling wacky -9's, instead of the -7's.

Deferred orders... Now that makes sense.

Quoting r2rho (Reply 43):

Basically the decision for U2 is whether they want a split fleet or not. If they do, the CSeries is a perfect fit.

   I guess we'll find out in a few weeks if the order went through...

Lightsaber



Societies that achieve a critical mass of ideas achieve self sustaining growth; others stagnate.
User currently offlinevoodoo From Niue, joined Mar 2001, 2074 posts, RR: 0
Reply 45, posted (1 year 2 months 3 weeks 2 days 22 hours ago) and read 17853 times:

Quoting art (Reply 42):
CS300 + A320 seems a better mix than A319 + A320 to me. Commonality issue: what is the minimum CS300 sub-fleet size required to overcome the commonality advantages of flying A319 if CS300 CASM is significantly lower than A319?

I agree and would add... are U2's 319s perhaps a bit more valuable on the used-a/c market than other 319s because of their slightly higher density potential.. for those airlines not willing to fork over or wait for the next generation NEO/MAX/CSeries?



` Yeaah! Baade 152! Trabi of the Sky! '
User currently offlineYTZ From Canada, joined Jun 2009, 1986 posts, RR: 24
Reply 46, posted (1 year 2 months 2 weeks 6 days 13 hours ago) and read 17062 times:

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 27):
As for Easyjet, the CSeries has had so many announced 'almost' orders that came to nothing that I'll wait until it actually happens before passing out cigars.

Agreed. I too fear that this is more a pressure tactic than a genuine buy. Unfortunately, Bombardier has no choice but to be used as a foil if that's what it is.

I can't see an LCC which relies on frequent refreshes of the fleet, risking capital on an airplane pre-EIS. They need to know how it does in service, to determine how it will sell after they are done with it.

That said, I do hope, deep down, that U2 has seen the merits of the airplane and that this is a sincere buy.


User currently offlineJoeCanuck From Canada, joined Dec 2005, 5416 posts, RR: 30
Reply 47, posted (1 year 2 months 2 weeks 6 days 13 hours ago) and read 17033 times:

There will be definite advantages of the CSeries over the 319NEO and -7 MAX. Unlike those two whose economics will not be significantly better than their larger brethren, the CS300 will have economic advantages great enough to warrant using planes of the sub 150 seat range.

Should Easyjet choose to go with a CSeries subfleet, they would buy in numbers large enough to overcome the economics of commonality.

I do give these rumours somewhat more credence than the Air Asia ones, but I will still hold back celebrating until an official announcement.



What the...?
User currently offlineplanemaker From Tuvalu, joined Aug 2003, 6144 posts, RR: 34
Reply 48, posted (1 year 2 months 2 weeks 6 days 10 hours ago) and read 16742 times:

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 47):
Should Easyjet choose to go with a CSeries subfleet

Yes, that is a possibility... stranger things have happened.  
Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 47):
Unlike those two whose economics will not be significantly better than their larger brethren, the CS300 will have economic advantages great enough to warrant using planes of the sub 150 seat range.

Now, with the addition of 6-9 seats to the -7, the MAX continues chips away at the margin advantage. However, too many people (just about everyone) just focuses on the operating economics and not the "total cost package"... and that is where A and B shoot the CSeries out of the air (unless the BBD is prepared to sacrifice profitability to land Easyjet as a customer).



Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
User currently offlineJoeCanuck From Canada, joined Dec 2005, 5416 posts, RR: 30
Reply 49, posted (1 year 2 months 2 weeks 6 days 10 hours ago) and read 16674 times:

Quoting planemaker (Reply 48):
Now, with the addition of 6-9 seats to the -7, the MAX continues chips away at the margin advantage.

...to no avail, having only the 30 deferred -700 orders from WN, and they are more than likely going to be converted to -8's in the next 5 years when they decide to get their order fulfilled.

They not only haven't shot the CSeries out of the air, nobody wants their planes which directly compete. The CSeries at least has the excuse of being brand new as a reason to hold back sales...the -7 MAX and the 319NEO have decades of history to fall back on as a springboard to sales, and they're still getting outsold by a plane which hasn't even flown yet.

It is unlikely any -7 MAX or 319's ever get sold as anything other than business jets.



What the...?
User currently offlineplanemaker From Tuvalu, joined Aug 2003, 6144 posts, RR: 34
Reply 50, posted (1 year 2 months 2 weeks 6 days 9 hours ago) and read 16613 times:

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 49):
...to no avail

The WN dynamic (and the speculation) has no relevance to a possible Easyjet order.

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 49):
They not only haven't shot the CSeries out of the air, nobody wants their planes which directly compete. The CSeries at least has the excuse of being brand new as a reason to hold back sales...the -7 MAX and the 319NEO have decades of history to fall back on as a springboard to sales, and they're still getting outsold by a plane which hasn't even flown yet.
...

It is unlikely any -7 MAX or 319's ever get sold as anything other than business jets.

Outsold?!? Unlikely?!? AA ordered 65 A319's with CFM56-5B's... just last month. And other airlines with massive A320 and MAX orders will likewise split out their orders as AA did just last month (65 A321s and 65 A319s). On the other hand, BBD has only sold a total of 82 CS300's - and almost half of them, 40, are "orphaned" as Airbus and GE "shot down" the Frontier order.



Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
User currently offlinePlymSpotter From Spain, joined Jun 2004, 11637 posts, RR: 60
Reply 51, posted (1 year 2 months 2 weeks 6 days 8 hours ago) and read 16547 times:

Quoting planemaker (Reply 48):
Now, with the addition of 6-9 seats to the -7, the MAX continues chips away at the margin advantage.

It's like chipping away at an iceberg with a pick. If you need more than a handful it's going to be cheaper to run two fleets - commonality only goes so far.

Quoting planemaker (Reply 48):
However, too many people (just about everyone) just focuses on the operating economics and not the "total cost package"... and that is where A and B shoot the CSeries out of the air (unless the BBD is prepared to sacrifice profitability to land Easyjet as a customer).

It's not Bombardier which would have to undersell the product to make it competitive. And really, where is the incentive for Airbus or Boeing to do that? Both have strong order books for the next gen families, why undersell an A319NEO when the same production slot can be used for an A320NEO at a reasonable margin? I can't see it being worth it, just to deprive the C Series of an order - both manufacturers can see the writing is on the wall for their smaller narrowbodies.

I can see the A319NEO picking up some orders where containerised luggage is preferred and there is commonality with other types. But generally the A319NEO and -7 MAX are going to be occupying a small niche where carriers require more range than the C Series can offer.

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 49):
It is unlikely any -7 MAX or 319's ever get sold as anything other than business jets.

I agree, they will make good Bizjets.


Dan  



...love is just a camouflage for what resembles rage again...
User currently offlineYVRLTN From Canada, joined Oct 2006, 2447 posts, RR: 0
Reply 52, posted (1 year 2 months 2 weeks 6 days 8 hours ago) and read 16580 times:

As usual, a certain poster takes every opportunity to bash the C Series. We get it, you dont like BBD...

I think this would be a great aircraft for U2 for their bases like BRS & EDI and expanding airports like SEN, IOM & regional France & Italy. I could see them having Airbus bases & BBD bases.



Follow me on twitter for YVR movements @vernonYVR
User currently offlineplanemaker From Tuvalu, joined Aug 2003, 6144 posts, RR: 34
Reply 53, posted (1 year 2 months 2 weeks 6 days 7 hours ago) and read 16465 times:

Quoting PlymSpotter (Reply 51):
It's like chipping away at an iceberg with a pick.

Do you realize what the difference actually is? Not an iceberg... more like a block of ice that melts extremely quickly when fleet commonality, pricing, financing, etc, etc, etc. is added.  
Quoting PlymSpotter (Reply 51):
It's not Bombardier which would have to undersell the product to make it competitive.

It is for obvious reasons. They don't have anywhere near A & B's pricing power when they are making close to 90 frames a month combined and can put together family and fleet deals that are impossible to match with only the CS300.

Quoting PlymSpotter (Reply 51):
And really, where is the incentive for Airbus or Boeing to do that? I can't see it being worth it, just to deprive the C Series of an order - both manufacturers can see the writing is on the wall for their smaller narrowbodies.

I already gave the Frontier deal as an example. JL has been quite vocal about "killing" the CSeries business case.

Quoting YVRLTN (Reply 52):
As usual, a certain poster takes every opportunity to bash the C Series.

Oh... what specifically is bashing??? Obviously you don't "get it"! Have I ever said the CSeries was a bad aircraft - no, the opposite. 



Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
User currently offlineYVRLTN From Canada, joined Oct 2006, 2447 posts, RR: 0
Reply 54, posted (1 year 2 months 2 weeks 6 days 7 hours ago) and read 16419 times:

Quoting planemaker (Reply 53):
Have I ever said the CSeries was a bad aircraft

More BBD in general I guess - hey, I like EMB's too  
Quoting planemaker (Reply 53):
They don't have anywhere near A & B's pricing power when they are making close to 90 frames a month combined and can put together family and fleet deals that are impossible to match with only the CS300.

So hopefully it will win orders on its own merits. I think it will be a great aircraft for LATAM, QF Link, BA at LGW, SN as well as LH mainline or wherever they will assign them and a whole bunch others if they had money like SK, OA and a lot of the European "legacy" carriers.



Follow me on twitter for YVR movements @vernonYVR
User currently offlineplanemaker From Tuvalu, joined Aug 2003, 6144 posts, RR: 34
Reply 55, posted (1 year 2 months 2 weeks 6 days 6 hours ago) and read 16372 times:

Quoting YVRLTN (Reply 54):
More BBD in general I guess - hey, I like EMB's too

Nope, not even BBD in general... I just use underlying facts and, unfortunately, it doesn't sit well with "rooters." I've been bashed at different times by A, B and E rooters as well. I was "bashed" for pointing out way back when that the 7E7 was going to have problems. And I was also bashed simply for saying, factually, that E was lucky about the Ejets. I've been through a few airliner certifications and you get bit in the ass even when you think you have everything covered.

Quoting YVRLTN (Reply 54):
So hopefully it will win orders on its own merits. I think it will be a great aircraft for LATAM, QF Link, BA at LGW, SN as well as LH mainline or wherever they will assign them and a whole bunch others if they had money like SK, OA and a lot of the European "legacy" carriers.

It can but selectively... and that is what BBD has been trying to do as it is a very delicate balancing act between getting market traction, profitability, delivery rate/availability, etc., etc. Both SUH and Aboulafia have said that BBD has to be aggressive to score some significant orders to ensure program success but BBD has resisted because the share price would take a hit and production skyline would "clog up" with marginal orders.



Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
User currently offlineJoeCanuck From Canada, joined Dec 2005, 5416 posts, RR: 30
Reply 56, posted (1 year 2 months 2 weeks 6 days 6 hours ago) and read 16338 times:

Quoting planemaker (Reply 50):

They can get the 319 before anything else since slots are available. It's the NEO it competes with.

Quoting planemaker (Reply 53):
They don't have anywhere near A & B's pricing power when they are making close to 90 frames a month combined and can put together family and fleet deals that are impossible to match with only the CS300.

But they can't seem to sell the planes that directly compete with the CSeries; the -7 MAX and the 319 NEO. These planes can't win against their bigger brothers, much less the CSeries...and A and B aren't going to price their NEO and MAX to compete with the CSeries. For one thing, they don't have to. More seats just give them better CASM, which is far from everything...it doesn't reduce their trip cost.

Quoting planemaker (Reply 53):
JL has been quite vocal about "killing" the CSeries business case.

He just hasn't managed to be able to do it.

But regardless of speculation, (yours and mine), we'll find out in the next few years if the program is going to be a success. I think it will, (and no, that's not based on being a 'rooter'...you're not the only one capable of speculating based on fact and logic), and you think it won't.

We'll see.



What the...?
User currently offlineplanemaker From Tuvalu, joined Aug 2003, 6144 posts, RR: 34
Reply 57, posted (1 year 2 months 2 weeks 6 days 5 hours ago) and read 16283 times:

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 56):
But they can't seem to sell the planes that directly compete with the CSeries; the -7 MAX and the 319 NEO.

I've already pointed out that the mega-orders for the NEO and MAX are for the most part generic and the model breakdown of the order hasn't been specified (and why would given industry dynamics and with delivery several years into the future). Furthermore, given consolidation (and it will continue), there are more than enough sub-150 seat aircraft in-service (and still to be delivered) that airlines don't need to replace their sub-150 fleet short term. In this case, WN is a perfect example. And there are other factors such as slot restrictions, for example.

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 56):
it doesn't reduce their trip cost.

But it isn't about trip costs but total costs.

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 56):
He just hasn't managed to be able to do it.

As I have pointed out before, there is nothing that A or B can do vs the CS100 but if you look at CS300 orders after the Frontier "debacle" JLhas been quite successful in impeding traction.

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 56):
We'll see.

Yup, I've "speculated" that the CSeries will be the F100 redux... I loved the aircraft, best in class, but ultimately unsuccessful (for mostly different reasons).



Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
User currently offlineJoeCanuck From Canada, joined Dec 2005, 5416 posts, RR: 30
Reply 58, posted (1 year 2 months 2 weeks 6 days 5 hours ago) and read 16292 times:

Quoting planemaker (Reply 57):

Yup, I've "speculated" that the CSeries will be the F100 redux... I loved the aircraft, best in class, but ultimately unsuccessful (for mostly different reasons).

Prepare to be disappointed.



What the...?
User currently offlineplanemaker From Tuvalu, joined Aug 2003, 6144 posts, RR: 34
Reply 59, posted (1 year 2 months 2 weeks 6 days 5 hours ago) and read 16255 times:

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 58):
Prepare to be disappointed.

Nothing to be disappointed about.  



Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
User currently offlinePlymSpotter From Spain, joined Jun 2004, 11637 posts, RR: 60
Reply 60, posted (1 year 2 months 2 weeks 5 days 21 hours ago) and read 15859 times:

Quoting planemaker (Reply 53):
Do you realize what the difference actually is? Not an iceberg... more like a block of ice that melts extremely quickly when fleet commonality, pricing, financing, etc, etc, etc. is added.

I have a thorough understanding of the aircraft and their commercial capabilities. Ultimately, unless you need the extra range/cargo, nothing makes up for the OEW/MTOW difference, which you will be reminded of at practically every step of your operation.

Quoting planemaker (Reply 53):
It is for obvious reasons. They don't have anywhere near A & B's pricing power when they are making close to 90 frames a month combined and can put together family and fleet deals that are impossible to match with only the CS300.

What you don't seem to grasp is that the C Series has the natural advantage here. List prices and discounted prices paid are beside the point, it's significantly cheaper to operate and attractive finance does not make up for that. Or do you expect Airbus/Boeing to provide a deal which underwrites the higher operating costs over the life of the aircraft? If so, think again.

Quoting planemaker (Reply 53):
I already gave the Frontier deal as an example. JL has been quite vocal about "killing" the CSeries business case.
Quoting planemaker (Reply 57):
As I have pointed out before, there is nothing that A or B can do vs the CS100 but if you look at CS300 orders after the Frontier "debacle" JLhas been quite successful in impeding traction.

So where else have Airbus and Boeing 'won' (as the order still stands, it can't be considered a win) over the C Series? They were not successful in beating Bombardier to the airBaltic order, and the 73G/-7 MAX didn't sway Korean when they went looking for a smaller aircraft. According to your view, Boeing should have been able to offer them a deal and fleet commonality which couldn't be matched.


Dan  



...love is just a camouflage for what resembles rage again...
User currently offlinePW100 From Netherlands, joined Jan 2002, 2426 posts, RR: 12
Reply 61, posted (1 year 2 months 2 weeks 5 days 18 hours ago) and read 15585 times:

Quoting YTZ (Reply 46):
Agreed. I too fear that this is more a pressure tactic than a genuine buy. Unfortunately, Bombardier has no choice but to be used as a foil if that's what it is

OTH, the dynamics have shifted somewhat now that both the NEO and MAX are virtually sold out for this decade. I would think that Bombardier should have some slots available before 2020. Now that I think of it, I suspect that at this point Bombardier probably has more available slots until 2020 than both the NEO and MAX (combined?) . . .

Quoting planemaker (Reply 50):
Unlikely?!? AA ordered 65 A319's with CFM56-5B's... just last month

Come on. You can do much much better than this. Or am I the only one who strongly suspect that Joe meant the -7MAX or 319NEO . . . Off course poor writing from his side, but your reply is totally uncalled for in a civilised discussion.

PW100



Immigration officer: "What's the purpose of your visit to the USA?" Spotter: "Shooting airliners with my Canon!"
User currently offlinelightsaber From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 12981 posts, RR: 100
Reply 62, posted (1 year 2 months 2 weeks 5 days 18 hours ago) and read 15532 times:
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Who else might order the C-series at Paris?

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 47):
Should Easyjet choose to go with a CSeries subfleet, they would buy in numbers large enough to overcome the economics of commonality.

I do give these rumours somewhat more credence than the Air Asia ones, but I will still hold back celebrating until an official announcement.

I concur on all points. I'm wait and see, but there is far more 'noise' than I saw with Air Asia.

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 49):
It is unlikely any -7 MAX or 319's ever get sold as anything other than business jets.

I share in that prediction. There will be no resale for the -7MAX nor the A319NEO. Thus, the lease payments will be elevated naturally pushing airlines to the larger brethren.

If the C-series meets promise, there will be a healthy resale market.   

Quoting planemaker (Reply 57):
I loved the aircraft, best in class, but ultimately unsuccessful (for mostly different reasons).

I have never seen a post of yours on the C-series that didn't predict its demise. Its doing well and only needs a *small* order at Paris to generate some excitement. If it meets its cost promises, it will own whatever the sub-150 seat market turns out to be. I predict 4000 sales out of 28000 narrowbodies over 20 years. More if there is a CS500.

Lightsaber



Societies that achieve a critical mass of ideas achieve self sustaining growth; others stagnate.
User currently offlinePlymSpotter From Spain, joined Jun 2004, 11637 posts, RR: 60
Reply 63, posted (1 year 2 months 2 weeks 5 days 16 hours ago) and read 15260 times:

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 62):
Who else might order the C-series at Paris?

Carriers I think are contenders for the C Series in general include:

Vueling - CS300.

Brussels Airlines - CS100/300. They have 10 RJ100 to replace on short European routes, but I can also see them being interested in the A319NEO. They are one of the carriers who could use it's range to central African regions.

BA CityFlyer - CS100. Perhaps not just yet, but I see the C Series dominating LCY within 5-10 years.

CityJet - CS100. *If* (and I think it's a big if) they are not going to disappear, they will need to modernise their fleet. It's bad enough competing against current generation E-Jets, operating an aircraft two generations behind the current offering isn't sustainable.

Cebu Pacific - CS100/300. I can see an ATR 72, C Series, A320/321NEO short haul fleet for them in the future.

SAS - CS100/300. Ideal 736 replacement.

TAROM - CS100/300. Replacement for the A318 and B733/G.

LOT - CS100/300.

Druk Air - CS100/300.


Who orders them at Paris, well, only Bombardier will know that for sure


Dan  



...love is just a camouflage for what resembles rage again...
User currently offlineViscount724 From Switzerland, joined Oct 2006, 25090 posts, RR: 22
Reply 64, posted (1 year 2 months 2 weeks 5 days 14 hours ago) and read 15026 times:

Quoting art (Reply 42):
Quoting Paolo92 (Reply 5):
The CS300XCS (eXtra Capacity Seating) is comparable to the U2 A319s at 156 seats.

A bit off topic, but why go for a 156 seat aircraft if it needs 1 more flight attendant than a 149 seat aircraft? How many of those last 7 seats on an A319 need to be filled to pay the cost of 1 more flight attendant?

Selling an average of one of those seats should be more than enough. Assuming about 6 sectors a day at an average fare of around $100, that's $600 revenue for one extra seat. I don't know any flight attendants who make $600 a day. Even if the average fare was only $50, it would still more than cover the cost of the extra flight attendant.

And with average load factors generally over 80%, several of those seats are going to be sold, not just one.

[Edited 2013-06-01 14:32:13]

User currently offlinevfw614 From Germany, joined Dec 2001, 3995 posts, RR: 5
Reply 65, posted (1 year 2 months 2 weeks 5 days 13 hours ago) and read 14920 times:

This pretty much says it all:

Quote:
easyJet will use the Bombardier CSeries to expand in second-tier European cities while the 737 MAX will be used to expand in major European cities.
http://www.aspireaviation.com/2013/0...27/boeing-lost-grounds-all-fronts/

The CS300 allows easyjet to grow to second tier European markets for which a 180 seater is too big if operated under the easyjet and not the Ryanair model (that, unlike easyjet, tends to link third tier airports with second tier airports)


User currently offlineJoeCanuck From Canada, joined Dec 2005, 5416 posts, RR: 30
Reply 66, posted (1 year 2 months 2 weeks 5 days 11 hours ago) and read 14703 times:

There have been so many 'orders' just around the corner for this plane...and some have definitely used it as a bargaining chip, (Air Asia and Qatar are two notables), that it has made me very wary of new speculation. Aspire doesn't exactly have the most stellar reputation for accuracy, (though I find some of their analysis interesting), but I believe that the CS300 will eventually be the logical and go to 319/737-700 replacement.

There are a lot of these planes to be replaced and while some airlines will simply go up a size, not every market needs the extra seats, that's a large commitment in purchase price and operating expenses, including crew, fuel and airport fees. The CSeries should be able to serve these markets for similar seat costs of the larger models, without the capital outlay and operating expenses.

The move for airlines to go to the larger model isn't purely because the market no longer exists for the 100-150 seater, but that the economics of the other options, (319NEO/-7 max), aren't enough of an advantage over the bigger brothers to justify their limitations.

The CSeries should, (on paper...at least until we know for sure), offers a significant enough economic advantage, (in price and performance), over the 320NEO/-8 MAX duo to keep the sub -150 seat market viable.

Ironically, rather than the 320 NEO/-8 MAX killing the CSeries, their economics have effectively killed the 319NEO/-7MAX....sorry Leahy.

AA and many other large carriers have gone away, (wisely , I think), from the one manufacturer model to order the best plane for the task, regardless of what factory it's from. This move away from commonality for its own sake is fairly recent and will be some help for CSeries sales moving forward.

That all being said, the CSeries does need a couple of hundred more orders in the books to ensure its future goes from 'makes sense', to reality.

[Edited 2013-06-01 16:21:59]


What the...?
User currently offlineplanemaker From Tuvalu, joined Aug 2003, 6144 posts, RR: 34
Reply 67, posted (1 year 2 months 2 weeks 5 days 6 hours ago) and read 14452 times:

Quoting PlymSpotter (Reply 60):
Ultimately, unless you need the extra range/cargo, nothing makes up for the OEW/MTOW difference, which you will be reminded of at practically every step of your operation.

Frontier.

Quoting PlymSpotter (Reply 60):
List prices and discounted prices paid are beside the point

Frontier.

Quoting PlymSpotter (Reply 60):
So where else have Airbus and Boeing 'won' (as the order still stands, it can't be considered a win) over the C Series? They were not successful in beating Bombardier to the airBaltic order, and the 73G/-7 MAX didn't sway Korean when they went looking for a smaller aircraft.

As has been discussed in the press, it will be interesting to see what is done with the "firm" order, especially since the airline alliance LCC idea went absolutely no where. In any case, I didn't bring up the "winning"... was just replying to the BBD "marketing spin" that many on here parrot. But since you brought up the Korean order for 10 CS300 and the airBaltic order 10 CS300 I will repeat what I have said before. First, there was not MAX model when the orders were placed. Second, after failing to announce a single order at Farnborough, BBD, during a very dry stretch of zilch CSeries interest/news, was desperate to garner at least one major airline order for Paris 2011, and Korean became the Asian launch customer in the fastest growing market (and thus far no other Asian carrier has ordered). And airBaltic, is not a "blue chip" order but there are doubts it will survive with its financial troubles and European Commission investigation.

Quoting PW100 (Reply 61):
Or am I the only one who strongly suspect that Joe meant the -7MAX or 319NEO

If you had read (or understood) my post you would have realized that it doesn't matter.

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 62):
I have never seen a post of yours on the C-series that didn't predict its demise.

To be precise... eventual demise... and for very good reason. But, I repeat, not because of the aircraft but the market dynamics... and I am not Richard Abouaflia!  
Quoting lightsaber (Reply 62):
More if there is a CS500.

And you think that A & B are not going to do everything to inhibit that possibility?

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 66):
The move for airlines to go to the larger model isn't purely because the market no longer exists for the 100-150 seater, but that the economics of the other options, (319NEO/-7 max), aren't enough of an advantage over the bigger brothers to justify their limitations.

For the most part it doesn't currently exist because there is a "glut" of 150-seaters due to consolidation/rationalization/slot restrictions/growth/etc. Fleets are being "rebalanced." Furthermore, airlines are not specifying their NEO or MAX order split... so we don't know which model they'll use all their production slots for. No one on A.net thought that AA would have ordered 65 A319's last month... and they haven't split out yet (and don't need to) which NEO and MAX models they'll be taking of the 130 on order.

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 66):
Ironically, rather than the 320 NEO/-8 MAX killing the CSeries, their economics have effectively killed the 319NEO/-7MAX....sorry Leahy.

Airlines have only ordered NEO family and MAX family slots with which model to take delivery of to be specified closer to delivery date. JL is still chortling over Frontier... still no significant CS300 order since then.

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 66):
AA and many other large carriers have gone away, (wisely , I think), from the one manufacturer model to order the best plane for the task, regardless of what factory it's from. This move away from commonality for its own sake is fairly recent and will be some help for CSeries sales moving forward.

Many? Some, yes but certainly not "many." And in AA's case (which already has a large mixed NB fleet), with 460 new NB's on order, it obviously made sense for a variety reasons... including ordering competing models from both OEM's .



Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
User currently offlinelightsaber From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 12981 posts, RR: 100
Reply 68, posted (1 year 2 months 2 weeks 5 days 5 hours ago) and read 14461 times:
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Quoting PlymSpotter (Reply 63):
Who orders them at Paris, well, only Bombardier will know that for sure

Thank you. That list is much longer than my personal list... encouraging.   

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 66):
Ironically, rather than the 320 NEO/-8 MAX killing the CSeries, their economics have effectively killed the 319NEO/-7MAX....sorry Leahy.

Agreed. The -8MAX and A320 NEO cost so little more per flight than the A319NEO/-7MAX that there is little if any remaining market.

Look at it another way, both the -7/-8 and A319/A320 suffer the same weight penalty within each family for the upgraded engine. But the heavier variant will benefit slightly more from the fuel economy savings (due to the nature of 'heavily loaded' jet engines). Thus, the cost per flight gap will shrink. Thus, a push towards the larger airframe as the likelihood of the extra seats paying off increases.

But the C-series brings in a much lower cost per flight (through weight, new wing, and longer maintenance intervals).
On the maintenance intervals:
http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/stor...iness-bombardier-cseries-test.html

Quoting planemaker (Reply 67):
But, I repeat, not because of the aircraft but the market dynamics...

Then we will just have to have a friendly disagreement. I see more frames below 150 seats than you and I see the C-series achieving economy of scale.

Lightsaber



Societies that achieve a critical mass of ideas achieve self sustaining growth; others stagnate.
User currently offlineplanemaker From Tuvalu, joined Aug 2003, 6144 posts, RR: 34
Reply 69, posted (1 year 2 months 2 weeks 5 days 5 hours ago) and read 14386 times:

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 68):
Look at it another way, both the -7/-8 and A319/A320 suffer the same weight penalty within each family for the upgraded engine. But the heavier variant will benefit slightly more from the fuel economy savings (due to the nature of 'heavily loaded' jet engines). Thus, the cost per flight gap will shrink. Thus, a push towards the larger airframe as the likelihood of the extra seats paying off increases.

You are forgetting that there are several $million difference in purchase price and financing... absolutely nothing to sneeze at when ordering several dozen frames... and there is absolutely no point in paying extra if you are not going to need the capability. Of course, by 2017/18 there could be carbon taxes, on the one hand, and lower fuel costs on the other (IAE believes that US will become energy exporter).

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 68):
Then we will just have to have a friendly disagreement. I see more frames below 150 seats than you and I see the C-series achieving economy of scale.

Always friendly!   Re. economies of scale... if they don't bulk up their orders they aren't going to achieve them. As it is, the Korean order is going to be pretty expensive to support if they don't sign up other Asian operators quickly (and more than just 10 frames like the Korean order).



Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
User currently offlinemon From United Kingdom, joined Jul 2012, 29 posts, RR: 0
Reply 70, posted (1 year 2 months 2 weeks 5 days 1 hour ago) and read 14150 times:

Monarch is another carrier that is looking at the possibility of a significant order.

User currently offlinePlymSpotter From Spain, joined Jun 2004, 11637 posts, RR: 60
Reply 71, posted (1 year 2 months 2 weeks 4 days 23 hours ago) and read 13890 times:

Quoting planemaker (Reply 67):
was just replying to the BBD "marketing spin" that many on here parrot.

Personally I think you are confusing 'marketing spin' for not being downbeat and negative. I don't follow these threads religiously, but you appear quick to shoot down anything positive about the type.

Quoting planemaker (Reply 67):
But since you brought up the Korean order for 10 CS300 and the airBaltic order 10 CS300 I will repeat what I have said before. First, there was not MAX model when the orders were placed.

I don't for a second believe that Korean was not given a very good overview of the MAX well before they placed their order. Boeing was talking to airlines about the next 737 development well before the official launch date. And regardless, there was fleet commonality with a standard 73G - but Korean still went with the C Series.

Quoting planemaker (Reply 67):
And airBaltic, is not a "blue chip" order but there are doubts it will survive with its financial troubles and European Commission investigation.

It's rather disingenuous to write it off as being irrelevant due to their circumstances - which are improving. Ultimately Boeing and Airbus both pitched their offering, and lost.


Dan  



...love is just a camouflage for what resembles rage again...
User currently offlineKarelXWB From Netherlands, joined Jul 2012, 11171 posts, RR: 33
Reply 72, posted (1 year 2 months 2 weeks 4 days 21 hours ago) and read 13778 times:

Hmmz, from Twitter:

> @Bombardier_Aero indicates that Easyjet is NOT customer that it will announce at #pas13



Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity. And I'm not sure about the universe.
User currently offlinetimboflier215 From United Kingdom, joined May 2005, 1334 posts, RR: 1
Reply 73, posted (1 year 2 months 2 weeks 4 days 21 hours ago) and read 13714 times:

That's a shame! I fly U2 pretty regularly, and was hoping to get a chance to fly the CSeries. Have to hope easy picks some up a little later on!

User currently offlinePaolo92 From Italy, joined Oct 2007, 260 posts, RR: 0
Reply 74, posted (1 year 2 months 2 weeks 4 days 21 hours ago) and read 13620 times:

Quoting timboflier215 (Reply 73):

What Karel quoted simply means that U2 has not ordered yet, an order at PAS13 is still possible.



Each evening, stars come out their daylight hiding places... But one of those, will be my wingtip, passing over...
User currently offlineplanemaker From Tuvalu, joined Aug 2003, 6144 posts, RR: 34
Reply 75, posted (1 year 2 months 2 weeks 4 days 19 hours ago) and read 13391 times:

Quoting PlymSpotter (Reply 71):
Personally I think you are confusing 'marketing spin' for not being downbeat and negative. I don't follow these threads religiously, but you appear quick to shoot down anything positive about the type.

No confusion at all as I am just being realistic. I am not a "fan" of any OEM and call them all out (as I have said earlier, I have been called a basher by the fans of ALL OEM's).

Quoting PlymSpotter (Reply 71):

I don't for a second believe that Korean was not given a very good overview of the MAX well before they placed their order..

There was absolutely no MAX when Korean decided to purchase the CS300. As the several threads on here have discussed, Boeing was dragged shouting and kicking into re-enginging the 737 by AA's Airbus NB order.

Quoting PlymSpotter (Reply 71):

It's rather disingenuous to write it off as being irrelevant due to their circumstances - which are improving.

It is not "disingenuous" to call a spade a spade. Aside from the recent financial and political scandals, airBaltic is under EU investigation and is continuing to lose money. No matter how you spin it, airBaltic is not a blue chip order.



Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
User currently offlinePlymSpotter From Spain, joined Jun 2004, 11637 posts, RR: 60
Reply 76, posted (1 year 2 months 2 weeks 4 days 18 hours ago) and read 13269 times:

Quoting planemaker (Reply 75):
No confusion at all as I am just being realistic.

You are predicting the 'eventual demise' of a class leading aircraft in a market requiring, by all forecasts, thousands of aircraft. That is highly pessimistic, not realistic.

Quoting planemaker (Reply 75):
There was absolutely no MAX when Korean decided to purchase the CS300.

The Korean order came a month before Boeing received authority to offer the MAX. I do not buy the idea that Korean didn't have a dialogue with Boeing about likely improvements to the 737 offering, regardless of what it was called at the time. But as I say again, the 73G was available right there and then, but despite the fleet commonality they didn't go for that either.

Quoting planemaker (Reply 75):
No matter how you spin it, airBaltic is not a blue chip order.

Please point out where I have said they are?


Dan  



...love is just a camouflage for what resembles rage again...
User currently offlineplanemaker From Tuvalu, joined Aug 2003, 6144 posts, RR: 34
Reply 77, posted (1 year 2 months 2 weeks 4 days 17 hours ago) and read 13335 times:

Quoting PlymSpotter (Reply 76):
You are predicting the 'eventual demise' of a class leading aircraft in a market requiring, by all forecasts, thousands of aircraft. That is highly pessimistic, not realistic.

Given the market dynamics it is not at all. One just has to look at the knife fights between the goliaths... and now a newcomer is trying to play in the same alley. Not a fair fight at all but BBD had no choice but to take this gamble if they were going to have any chance to stay in the game.

Quoting PlymSpotter (Reply 76):
The Korean order came a month before Boeing received authority to offer the MAX..

The order was announced at the Paris Airshow (it was reached several months earlier) while MAX ATO did not come until the last day in August. Again, as widely discussed, Boeing was forced to re-engine by AA's split order for 260 A320s with 365 options while Boeing only got 200 and 100. And even after that Boeing was still saying that they still believed that an all-new NB design was the preferred route.

Quoting PlymSpotter (Reply 76):
But as I say again, the 73G was available right there and then, but despite the fleet commonality they didn't go for that either.

For very basic reasons. if the CS300 already is expected to beat the MAX on COC's it is painfully obvious that it is that much better than the NG. Coupled with a desperate BBD and an over confidant B and it isn't a surprise why Korean ordered 10 CS300's. As I have repeated often, commonality is only ONE factor of the total cost package. It is beyond me why people are unable to look at all the purchase factors.

Quoting PlymSpotter (Reply 76):
Please point out where I have said they are?

You brought up the airBaltic order, not me.



Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
User currently offlinePlymSpotter From Spain, joined Jun 2004, 11637 posts, RR: 60
Reply 78, posted (1 year 2 months 2 weeks 4 days 16 hours ago) and read 13180 times:

Quoting planemaker (Reply 77):
Given the market dynamics it is not at all.

That is your opinion, I have my opinion. We will have to disagree there.

Quoting planemaker (Reply 77):
while MAX ATO did not come until the last day in August.

And of course manufacturers never talk to their customers prior to putting these things before the board for approval. The AA order caused the trigger to be pulled.

Quoting planemaker (Reply 77):
As I have repeated often, commonality is only ONE factor of the total cost package. It is beyond me why people are unable to look at all the purchase factors.

My point is in response to your comment in post 53 that Airbus/Boeing can put together family and fleet deals which are impossible for the CS300 to match alone. The message from Korean is simple; we disagree and feel it's better to run a fleet of CS300 aircraft alongside whatever larger Boeing/Airbus aircraft are available in the future.

Quoting planemaker (Reply 77):
You brought up the airBaltic order, not me.

And where did I make it out to be a blue chip order - simple, I didn't.


Dan  



...love is just a camouflage for what resembles rage again...
User currently offlinetimboflier215 From United Kingdom, joined May 2005, 1334 posts, RR: 1
Reply 79, posted (1 year 2 months 2 weeks 4 days 15 hours ago) and read 13039 times:

Quoting Paolo92 (Reply 74):
U2 has not ordered yet, an order at PAS13 is still possible.

Absolutely! Hence:

Quoting timboflier215 (Reply 73):
Have to hope easy picks some up a little later on!


User currently offlineplanemaker From Tuvalu, joined Aug 2003, 6144 posts, RR: 34
Reply 80, posted (1 year 2 months 2 weeks 4 days 13 hours ago) and read 12860 times:

Quoting PlymSpotter (Reply 78):
That is your opinion, I have my opinion. We will have to disagree there.

Yes, my opinion supported by the facts: in the 5 years since ATO, total CS300 orders stand at only 82 frames... of which the ex-Frontier order for 40 have no operating scenario and 10 are to a financially troubled airline under EU investigation.

Quoting PlymSpotter (Reply 78):
The AA order caused the trigger to be pulled.

Yes, as widely reported in all the aviation press and even discussed on A.net.

Quoting PlymSpotter (Reply 78):
The message from Korean is simple; we disagree and feel it's better to run a fleet of CS300 aircraft alongside whatever larger Boeing/Airbus aircraft are available in the future.

No... it is that the total deal that BBD made for 10 CS300s was better than the 73G offer from a complacent Boeing. And it should be very obvious that if Korean had a need for a sub-150 seater that it was not going to wait a decade for an all-new Boeing NB (as AA has proven with their orders for OEO's.)

Quoting PlymSpotter (Reply 78):
And where did I make it out to be a blue chip order - simple, I didn't.

Exactly, it was pointless to have referenced airBaltic.



Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
User currently offlinePlymSpotter From Spain, joined Jun 2004, 11637 posts, RR: 60
Reply 81, posted (1 year 2 months 2 weeks 4 days 13 hours ago) and read 12698 times:

Quoting planemaker (Reply 80):
Yes, my opinion supported by the facts:

Yes, I know what you are saying. I disagree with your position because I think it is shortsighted and quite narrow minded. Repeating it isn't going to change that.

Quoting planemaker (Reply 80):
Exactly, it was pointless to have referenced airBaltic.

Oh sure, pointless to refer to a 10 frame firm order. Whilst we're at it, shall we discount every order currently attributed to a carrier in financial distress - clearly they must be pointless too.  


Dan  



...love is just a camouflage for what resembles rage again...
User currently offlineplanemaker From Tuvalu, joined Aug 2003, 6144 posts, RR: 34
Reply 82, posted (1 year 2 months 2 weeks 4 days 12 hours ago) and read 12612 times:

Quoting PlymSpotter (Reply 81):
Yes, I know what you are saying. I disagree with your position because I think it is shortsighted and quite narrow minded. Repeating it isn't going to change that.

I am not trying to change your opinion... I know that it is impossible to change an opinion that ignores facts and that is based on sunny optimism.

Quoting PlymSpotter (Reply 81):
Oh sure, pointless to refer to a 10 frame firm order.

Yes, it is pointless to refer to a small airline in financial distress and under EU investigation.



Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
User currently offlineopethfan From Canada, joined Dec 2012, 462 posts, RR: 0
Reply 83, posted (1 year 2 months 2 weeks 4 days 12 hours ago) and read 12576 times:

This discussion is starting to appear less and less productive with each passing post.

Can we leave it to rest agreeing that some of us have more optimism in the market for the CSeries than others? Various philosophers and "experts" have proved quite handily that the future isn't something that can be predicted with any great confidence.

Now let's stop bickering and get back to the topic on hand: U2 potentially ordering CSeries planes.


User currently offlinePlymSpotter From Spain, joined Jun 2004, 11637 posts, RR: 60
Reply 84, posted (1 year 2 months 2 weeks 4 days 12 hours ago) and read 12552 times:

Quoting planemaker (Reply 82):
I am not trying to change your opinion... I know that it is impossible to change an opinion that ignores facts and that is based on sunny optimism.

Sunny optimism... well I admit the nice weather here this past weekend has been pleasant, but that doesn't have a bearing on the facts and figures I'll be dealing with come Monday morning.

Quoting planemaker (Reply 82):
Yes, it is pointless to refer to a small airline in financial distress and under EU investigation.

Spoken like a true pessimist.

Quoting opethfan (Reply 83):
Now let's stop bickering and get back to the topic on hand

 checkmark  Agreed


Dan  

[Edited 2013-06-02 15:30:20]


...love is just a camouflage for what resembles rage again...
User currently offlinelightsaber From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 12981 posts, RR: 100
Reply 85, posted (1 year 2 months 2 weeks 4 days 6 hours ago) and read 12342 times:
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Quoting planemaker (Reply 69):
You are forgetting that there are several $million difference in purchase price and financing... absolutely nothing to sneeze at when ordering several dozen frames...

I never forget that. Boeing and Airbus have a *huge* advantage there, hence why the Canadian government has set up what they have to help. IIRC, limited to the CS100 though...

Quoting planemaker (Reply 69):
Re. economies of scale... if they don't bulk up their orders they aren't going to achieve them.

That we can agree on. However, Bombardier is soon going to have sold enough for their first engine PIP. Those PIPs are important. (Well, I happen to be working an engine PIP since last week... so I'm biased.).   If Easyjet does purchase the C0series, it gets the plane past the first 'economy of scale threshold.'

The thresholds:
1. 400 engines (engine pip becomes worthwhile at 200 airframes as well as some minor improvements).
2. 400 airframes (Pays for the launch and first airframe PIPs that are not a fix...).
3. 1000 airframes (speeds up PIPs/improvements)

Everything above that is gravy and helps pay for major changes. e.g., the 737NG is helping pay for the new winglets helping improve the business case for the MAX. Same with A320 OEO sales paying or the sharklets that will benefit the NEO. The C-series will be a loss for that level of improvement. However, they will start at a better level than many others trying to enter the narrow body competition. If this Easyjet order plays out, there will be a nice boost in the 'economy of scale' to almost the first threshold.

I've stated before, there is no reason for an airline to order before seeing flight test data. I'm not talking about the data gathered the first few flights, but rather when Bombardier can show a portfolio of 50+ flights with fuel burn versus payload (usually barrels of water).

Lightsaber



Societies that achieve a critical mass of ideas achieve self sustaining growth; others stagnate.
User currently offlinePW100 From Netherlands, joined Jan 2002, 2426 posts, RR: 12
Reply 86, posted (1 year 2 months 2 weeks 3 days 19 hours ago) and read 11972 times:

Quoting planemaker (Reply 67):
If you had read (or understood) my post you would have realized that it doesn't matter.

I don't understand how you can state that, when you stated this . . . :

Quoting planemaker (Reply 50):
AA ordered 65 A319's with CFM56-5B's...

Last time I checked, CFM56-5B were not intended to be found on a NEO . . .

PW100



Immigration officer: "What's the purpose of your visit to the USA?" Spotter: "Shooting airliners with my Canon!"
User currently offlineyellowtail From United States of America, joined Jun 2005, 6085 posts, RR: 2
Reply 87, posted (1 year 2 months 2 weeks 3 days 16 hours ago) and read 11724 times:

The C series would be a good aircraft for someone like AV or CM....and maybe even Virgin Australia. CM would make a killing with them on routes like PTY-CTG, PTY-SJO


When in doubt, hold on to your altitude. No-one has ever collided with the sky.
User currently offlineJoeCanuck From Canada, joined Dec 2005, 5416 posts, RR: 30
Reply 88, posted (1 year 2 months 2 weeks 3 days 12 hours ago) and read 11575 times:

The MAX -7 and 319NEO are dead ducks. Airlines were already upsizing before the MAX, NEO and CSeries came along. It's not that the 150ish seat airliner doesn't have a market, it's that the current offerings don't economically serve that market. The CSeries beats them in every metric and they aren't significantly enough more economical than their bigger siblings to make the purchase of smaller planes with almost the same trip costs, worthwhile.

That leaves the CSeries as the only sub 160 seater that will operate as the same CASM as the MAX-8 and 320NEO, at a significantly lower purchase price.

Still, this doesn't guarantee airlines will line up to buy the aircraft...but that's a pretty huge, (and has been very popular), gap to just leave empty.

The CS300 doesn't so much compete with the -7MAX and 319 NEO, as compliment the -8MAX and 320NEO.



What the...?
User currently offlineplanemaker From Tuvalu, joined Aug 2003, 6144 posts, RR: 34
Reply 89, posted (1 year 2 months 2 weeks 3 days 6 hours ago) and read 11373 times:

Quoting PW100 (Reply 86):
I don't understand how you can state that, when you stated this . . . :

You simply don't understand.

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 88):
The MAX -7 and 319NEO are dead ducks.

With EIS in late 2016 or early 2017 (A319NEO) and in 2019 (737-7MAX), ~3-4 and 6 years from now, respectively, "dead ducks" is a very interesting prediction... especially since airlines don't have to specify which model they are going to take delivery of until close to production date.

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 88):
It's not that the 150ish seat airliner doesn't have a market, it's that the current offerings don't economically serve that market.

Pretty foolish of AA to order all those A319s.

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 88):
That leaves the CSeries as the only sub 160 seater that will operate as the same CASM as the MAX-8 and 320NEO, at a significantly lower purchase price.

Brackets the threshold depending upon seat configuration.

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 88):
The CS300 doesn't so much compete with the -7MAX and 319 NEO

Short term it competes with the 73G and A319OEO... used ones, that is. Hundreds that will be coming off lease and will be available very cheaply (see Allegiant). Longer term the CS300 will face stiff competition from with the 7MAX and A319NEO... not because it doesn't have better COCs but because...

Quote:
In the AirInsight study on the CSeries last December, the biggest threat to BBD was not the neo program, we concluded. As noted, we believe the CSeries has better economics. The threat is the pricing power of Airbus and Boeing and the ability to cut “global” deals that BBD can’t match.



Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
User currently offlineJoeCanuck From Canada, joined Dec 2005, 5416 posts, RR: 30
Reply 90, posted (1 year 2 months 2 weeks 3 days 5 hours ago) and read 11352 times:

Quoting planemaker (Reply 89):
Pretty foolish of AA to order all those A319s.

The CSeries competes against the NEO and MAX...and they don't have slots open for when AA wants the 319's.

Quoting planemaker (Reply 89):
Short term it competes with the 73G and A319OEO... used ones, that is. Hundreds that will be coming off lease and will be available very cheaply (see Allegiant). Longer term the CS300 will face stiff competition from with the 7MAX and A319NEO... not because it doesn't have better COCs but because...

So do the OEO, -700, MAX-7 and 319NEO. You really don't seem very keen to make consistent arguments...but that's fine...you are consistent in your lack of faith in the CSeries. Everybody is competing against used planes.

As for the airinsight article, (I seem to recall you normally don't have much faith in their analysis), they do mention the pricing power of the big two...except that if they take a loss out of their production lines, (or a bunch of them to make a big sale), they take production slots away from the bigger planes, which do make them money...and they don't have to discount them nearly as much.

That also didn't influence the airlines which did order the CSeries. Presumably the big savings pitch was made to them from A & B...but they aren't smart enough to jump at the great deal.

Pretty foolish of LH to order those CSeries, eh?

And while some airlines have yet to choose which model, none is even talking about taking the smaller ones...but they don't seem shy about being committed to the 320 or the 320 by the thousands...the same for the -8 and -9 MAX's. Airlines have long been moving up a model...even WN has decided to forego -700's for -800's. They have deferred 30 -700, while continuing to take deliveries of -800's. The deferral is technically a swap for -7MAX's, but as you mentioned, they can take the -8 if they wish.

Aviation week, from today, holds out little hope for the future of the -7MAX and 319NEO...in fact, nobody is expecting the -7MAX or 319NEO to sell. Even their makers have concluded these ones are the ugly ducklings of the bunch, with plans, (such as they are), to bring those to market last...well behind their real money makers.

http://www.aviationweek.com/Article....l/AW_06_03_2013_p46-581757.xml&p=1


...in fact, nobody is expecting the -7MAX or 319NEO to sell. Even their makers have concluded these ones are the ugly ducklings of the bunch, with plans, (such as they are), to bring those to market last...well behind their real money makers.


Maybe the CSeries is also a dead duck...who knows? You don't...and neither do I. You are not the only one who can analyse market forces and come to conclusions. Some, like I, happen to come to different conclusions than you do. You are willing to stick your neck out and claim that it won't sell more than a few extra copies and I'm willing to stick my neck out and predict at least 1000 sales before production ends. Not only that, I predict the next couple of years will also see the introduction of a CS500.

We can guess and argue back and forth forever but only time will tell. I can live with that.



What the...?
User currently offliner2rho From Germany, joined Feb 2007, 2596 posts, RR: 1
Reply 91, posted (1 year 2 months 2 weeks 2 days 22 hours ago) and read 10937 times:

We'll need a bit of patience to find out... why should anyone order the CS300 just now? There is not even a reason to immediately order the CS100 - there are plenty of production slots, just wait a few months for the first 20-30 flights and good hard data, then order planes at will. EIS for the CS300 is even further out, with even more free slots, so even less reason to hurry and commit. The second half of the year could get interesting on the orders side if flight tests progress well. Now it's too early.

By the way, same goes - in relative terms - for the A350-1000. Why hurry to commit to a still unfrozen design whose EIS is years away? In that sense, every CS300 order is worth "double" to BBD, just like Airbus happily brags about any A35J order or -900 to -1000 conversion - those are airlines commiting far in advance to a design, without having any immediate need to do so.


User currently offlinelightsaber From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 12981 posts, RR: 100
Reply 92, posted (1 year 2 months 2 weeks 2 days 22 hours ago) and read 10859 times:
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The C-series is for smaller markets with frequency. IMHO U2 would do very well with a hundred of the type (50 initial order with 50 options later).

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 90):
The deferral is technically a swap for -7MAX's, but as you mentioned, they can take the -8 if they wish.

I will be shocked if WN takes the -7. How the heck will they finance them? The 736/A318 didn't just die on their CASM, they also died due to the poor resale values driving up lease rates.

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 90):
Aviation week, from today, holds out little hope for the future of the -7MAX and 319NEO...in fact, nobody is expecting the -7MAX or 319NEO to sell.

From your link: The omens also seem favorable for the identically sized 737-8 which has so far accumulated firm orders for 1,121, or 85% of the entire MAX orderbook.

Wow... I actually expected more -9 orders as *every* new engine on the 737 has made the most popular variant one step larger than the prior engine. Interesting how dominant the -8 is... I speculate the -8 is partially doing so well as it will have the most liquid resale market.

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 90):
Maybe the CSeries is also a dead duck

Unlikely. Its sold better than any non A or B airframe since Douglas. In fact, one more order and the CS100 outsells the 736!    What the C-series needs is to prove its economics and that takes a large number of flights.

Quoting planemaker (Reply 89):


Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 88):
The CS300 doesn't so much compete with the -7MAX and 319 NEO

Short term it competes with the 73G and A319OEO... used ones, that is.

   Due to A and B's high production rates and the declining resale of the short narrowbodies, it will make things tougher for Bombardier. It will be interesting to see what happens in 5 to 7 years when so many 738s and A320OEOs come off lease. Even G4 has declared an intention to upgauge. (A319s/73Gs are simply worth too much as parts thanks to the NEO/MAX.)

But for airlines that wish a lower cost per flight for serving mid-size markets with frequency, there is a niche for the C-series. For airlines such as U2, there is economics in buying a subfleet. I'll be very curious to see if this order goes through...

Lightsaber



Societies that achieve a critical mass of ideas achieve self sustaining growth; others stagnate.
User currently offlineCRJ900 From Norway, joined Jun 2004, 2174 posts, RR: 1
Reply 93, posted (1 year 2 months 2 weeks 2 days 21 hours ago) and read 10774 times:
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I'm thinking that short-field performance might be a key factor if EZY is looking at the CS300.

The CS100 is touted as having excellent short-field performance but 125 seats is not enough for EZY. IIRC, the CS300 and CS100 have the same wing but the CS300 is longer and heavier - and the question is if EZY can use a 150-seat CS300 on smaller airfields, like SEN?

If the CS300 also has good short-field performance with 150 pax onboard, EZY can open up new destinations to/from smaller airports that are not suitable for larger aircraft.



Come, fly the prevailing winds with me
User currently offlineYTZ From Canada, joined Jun 2009, 1986 posts, RR: 24
Reply 94, posted (1 year 2 months 2 weeks 2 days 21 hours ago) and read 10724 times:

I wonder if planemaker is shorting the stock. Were I to be as confident in my analysis of the market, I'd put my money where my mouth is.

I have bought Bombardier stock. I expect the airplane will be a success and I expect orders will start flying in towards the end of the year, once Bombardier has some actual flight test data to show potential customers. At that point, it'll be difficult to deny that the value of the CSeries is substantial enough to break commonality for at least a few customers.


User currently offlinedrgmobile From Canada, joined Aug 2006, 623 posts, RR: 0
Reply 95, posted (1 year 2 months 2 weeks 2 days 18 hours ago) and read 10521 times:

The Air Canada bit I find very interesting. AC already suggested that it may remove the Embraer 190s from its fleet. I've suspected for some time that with the A319s going to Rouge that we'd see a split narrowbody order for the C-Series and A320 family NEOs to replace the A320s. The A321s are relatively new so I think they'd stay for the time being.

There is precedent. After CCAA, AC announced a split Bombardier CRJ-705 and Embarer 170/190 order with the former operated by Jazz and the latter operated by AC mainline. A C-Series order would be good politically.


User currently offlinePW100 From Netherlands, joined Jan 2002, 2426 posts, RR: 12
Reply 96, posted (1 year 2 months 2 weeks 2 days 16 hours ago) and read 10325 times:

Quoting planemaker (Reply 89):
You simply don't understand.

Apparently not . . .

Quoting planemaker (Reply 89):
With EIS in late 2016 or early 2017 (A319NEO) and in 2019 (737-7MAX), ~3-4 and 6 years from now, respectively, "dead ducks" is a very interesting prediction... especially since airlines don't have to specify which model they are going to take delivery of until close to production date

Yet it was you who brought up AA order for 65 A319's to counteract the claim that mentioned frames were being outsold.

PW100



Immigration officer: "What's the purpose of your visit to the USA?" Spotter: "Shooting airliners with my Canon!"
User currently offlinequeb From Canada, joined May 2010, 663 posts, RR: 3
Reply 97, posted (1 year 2 months 2 weeks 2 days 16 hours ago) and read 10337 times:

Russia's Ilyushin Finance Co. Firms Purchase Agreement for up to 42 Bombardier CSeries Aircraft

http://www.bombardier.com/wps/portal...edia-centre?docID=0901260d802c39d1


User currently offlineYTZ From Canada, joined Jun 2009, 1986 posts, RR: 24
Reply 98, posted (1 year 2 months 2 weeks 2 days 15 hours ago) and read 10173 times:

Quoting drgmobile (Reply 95):
The Air Canada bit I find very interesting.

I am a little more suspicious.

The CSeries is perfect for AC in that it lets AC move to two families that are much better optimized. Instead of flying less optimized A319s. AC could operate the CS100 as an E190 replacement and the CS300 as a 319 replacement. This would allow AC to then get the 320N/738M and 321N/739M as their larger narrowbodies. They wouldn't be flying any shrinks.

The country's population has grown significantly since AC first ordered the Airbus narrowbodies. Most of that population growth has been centred on AC's largest hubs. AC will need to upsize a bit. The way I see it, AC would be much better off with a fleet mix something like this:

40 CS100
20 CS300 (All for Rouge)
40 CS500

40 A321NEOs

They could use the NEOs almost exclusively to serve larger city pairs (YYZ-YVR, YYZ-LAX, YVR-LAX) and longer routes YYZ-CCS. Or any routes where cargo loads are significant and/or palletized cargo is useful. The CSeries would be used for anything and everything else.

However, there are some members who say that AC is adamant about getting its return from the EJets and that they are too new to replace. If that's actually true, then AC is just manouvering to get a better deal from Airbus or Boeing. We can't rule that out.

Also interesting is the idea that AC could get access to YTZ if they acquire the CSeries. It wouldn't be exactly Machiavellian to suggest that they want to kill Porter's ambitions by scaring councillors in Toronto into thinking that AC will add another 100 flights into YTZ in addition to Porter's traffic.


User currently offlineYTZ From Canada, joined Jun 2009, 1986 posts, RR: 24
Reply 99, posted (1 year 2 months 2 weeks 2 days 15 hours ago) and read 10125 times:

Quoting queb (Reply 97):
Russia's Ilyushin Finance Co. Firms Purchase Agreement for up to 42 Bombardier CSeries Aircraft

Really curious who they'll place them with.


User currently offlineViscount724 From Switzerland, joined Oct 2006, 25090 posts, RR: 22
Reply 100, posted (1 year 2 months 2 weeks 2 days 12 hours ago) and read 9918 times:

Quoting YTZ" class="quote" target="_blank">YTZ (Reply 98):
Also interesting is the idea that AC could get access to YTZ if they acquire the CSeries. It wouldn't be exactly Machiavellian to suggest that they want to kill Porter's ambitions by scaring councillors in Toronto into thinking that AC will add another 100 flights into YTZ in addition to Porter's traffic.

Where do the new YTZ slots come from? Isn't YTZ already using all available slots, including only 15 for AC (Sky Regional) flights to YUL? Does the YTZ terminal have enough capacity to handle another 100 flights? I doubt it.


User currently offlineYTZ From Canada, joined Jun 2009, 1986 posts, RR: 24
Reply 101, posted (1 year 2 months 2 weeks 1 day 16 hours ago) and read 9397 times:

Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 100):

Where do the new YTZ slots come from? Isn't YTZ already using all available slots, including only 15 for AC (Sky Regional) flights to YUL? Does the YTZ terminal have enough capacity to handle another 100 flights? I doubt it.

Porter is asking for more slots as part and parcel of expanding YTZ to suport "jets".

That said, it's not about reality. AC could do quite well just by asking for more slots and giving ammunition to certain left-leaning councillors in the city.


User currently offlineDALCE From Netherlands, joined Feb 2007, 1680 posts, RR: 7
Reply 102, posted (1 year 2 months 2 weeks 1 day 14 hours ago) and read 9543 times:

Although I can't reveal my source, which is very trustworthy I know for a fact that SWISS will replace their A319's with CS300's. Was this already known to the general public?
Phase out of the 319's already started with HB-IPR being phased out and replaced by 321 HB-ION.
The phase-out will be finished around 2018, which is slow with current fleetsize 6, but the CS's are not flying yet  

Sorry if I posted in the wrong topic, but since it's about the C-series anyway I though of sharing it with you guys 



flown on : F50,F70,CR1,CR2,CR9,E75,143,AR8,AR1,733,735,736,73G,738,753,744,319,320,321,333,AB6.
User currently offlinePlymSpotter From Spain, joined Jun 2004, 11637 posts, RR: 60
Reply 103, posted (1 year 2 months 2 weeks 1 day 13 hours ago) and read 9433 times:

Quoting CRJ900 (Reply 93):
the question is if EZY can use a 150-seat CS300 on smaller airfields, like SEN?

Definitely. Even considering summer temperatures it should comfortably achieve the 1,500nm range Bombardier quote for shorter runways.

Quoting DALCE (Reply 102):
Although I can't reveal my source, which is very trustworthy I know for a fact that SWISS will replace their A319's with CS300's. Was this already known to the general public?

That makes perfect sense for them; CS100, 300 (and possibly 500) plus the A321/321NEO and possible the A320/320NEO depending on the CS500 launch.


Dan  



...love is just a camouflage for what resembles rage again...
User currently offlinePaolo92 From Italy, joined Oct 2007, 260 posts, RR: 0
Reply 104, posted (1 year 2 months 2 weeks 1 day 13 hours ago) and read 9382 times:

Quoting PlymSpotter (Reply 103):
That makes perfect sense for them; CS100, 300 (and possibly 500) plus the A321/321NEO and possible the A320/320NEO depending on the CS500 launch.

That's indeed what the CEO of Swiss told reporters in Cape Town a few days ago:

Quote:
A stretched version of the CSeries could be a suitable replacement for the Airbus A320, Swiss Chief Executive Officer Harry Hohmeister said in an interview in Cape Town. Still, the the Montreal-based manufacturer should first focus on development of the two models now being created, he said.



Each evening, stars come out their daylight hiding places... But one of those, will be my wingtip, passing over...
User currently offlineZBBYLW From Canada, joined Nov 2006, 1984 posts, RR: 6
Reply 105, posted (1 year 2 months 2 weeks 1 day 12 hours ago) and read 9289 times:

Quoting YTZ" class="quote" target="_blank">YTZ (Reply 98):
I am a little more suspicious.

The CSeries is perfect for AC in that it lets AC move to two families that are much better optimized. Instead of flying less optimized A319s. AC could operate the CS100 as an E190 replacement and the CS300 as a 319 replacement. This would allow AC to then get the 320N/738M and 321N/739M as their larger narrowbodies. They wouldn't be flying any shrinks.

The country's population has grown significantly since AC first ordered the Airbus narrowbodies. Most of that population growth has been centred on AC's largest hubs. AC will need to upsize a bit. The way I see it, AC would be much better off with a fleet mix something like this:

40 CS100
20 CS300 (All for Rouge)
40 CS500

40 A321NEOs

They could use the NEOs almost exclusively to serve larger city pairs (YYZ-YVR, YYZ-LAX, YVR-LAX) and longer routes YYZ-CCS. Or any routes where cargo loads are significant and/or palletized cargo is useful. The CSeries would be used for anything and everything else.

However, there are some members who say that AC is adamant about getting its return from the EJets and that they are too new to replace. If that's actually true, then AC is just manouvering to get a better deal from Airbus or Boeing. We can't rule that out.

Also interesting is the idea that AC could get access to YTZ if they acquire the CSeries. It wouldn't be exactly Machiavellian to suggest that they want to kill Porter's ambitions by scaring councillors in Toronto into thinking that AC will add another 100 flights into YTZ in addition to Porter's traffic.

I agree to a certain extent but I would say instead of 40 321s you would probably see a split of say 15 or so 321s and 25 or so 320s. I would probably wait to see about a CS500 before making this assumption. A CS500 carrying about 150 in a J/Y config may be tempting if it has good legs. The CS300 would be very interesting for longer thinner routes that are season/been left/weak. Ones I can think of would be from YYZ: CCS, SAN, PDX, SEA, YDF, any smaller vacation spots such as Exhuma etc...

The CS100 would be very good to improve frequencies on flights such as YVR-YYC,YEG,LAX,SFO and YYZ-YWG,YYT,YMM,YHZ,YXE,YQR,MEX,ORD,NYC,MIA etc...

The 321 would be perfect on trunk routes, YYC, YVR, LAX, SFO, YUL, LAS from YYZ and from YVR-YUL,YOW, YYZ and if it has the legs HNL on a 2x a day frequency I know people who avoid AC because the red eye into HNL and home.

Interesting opportunities if AC is open to 2 types in the narrow body. With a CS100,300 and 500 on offer I think AC may have enough planes to validate the two types.



Keep the shinny side up!
User currently offlinedrgmobile From Canada, joined Aug 2006, 623 posts, RR: 0
Reply 106, posted (1 year 2 months 2 weeks 1 day 12 hours ago) and read 9240 times:

Quoting YTZ (Reply 98):
I am a little more suspicious.

However, there are some members who say that AC is adamant about getting its return from the EJets and that they are too new to replace. If that's actually true, then AC is just manouvering to get a better deal from Airbus or Boeing. We can't rule that out.


I generally agree with the rest of your post... I think we're essentially saying the same thing. On the Embraer 190s, my comments were based on two articles that appeared in Wings Magazine within the last year:

"The transfer of the Embraer 175 is part of a broader plan by Air Canada to retool its narrow-body fleet. With the bulk of the company%u2019s A319s already earmarked for the low-cost carrier, what is most likely to happen is a phasing out of the Embraer 190, which the airline has described as an excellent aircraft but an awkward fit (and too large to transfer to a regional partner under the scoping clause in the collective agreement)" http://www.wingsmagazine.com/content/view/7836/

and, based on an interview with AC President and CEO Calin Rovinescu:

"Air Canada is also re-evaluating its narrow body fleet and is expected to make some announcements next year, including phasing out the Embraer 190s, which are too large to be transferred to Air Canada Express carriers and making a decision on a new generation twinjet." http://www.wingsmagazine.com/content/view/7623/"

Capacity wise, the 190s are about the same as the CS100 and the A319s about the same size as the CS300, but the economics are much better. Depending on the particulars of their strategy, they could go with either C-Series or a mix and go A320 NEO for larger markets. Sure, the 737 MAX would get a look see, but I gotta think the NEO has a serious edge since the carrier already has a fleet of Airbus narrowbodies.

Quoting YTZ (Reply 98):
The country's population has grown significantly since AC first ordered the Airbus narrowbodies. Most of that population growth has been centred on AC's largest hubs. AC will need to upsize a bit. The way I see it, AC would be much better off with a fleet mix something like this:

I really don't see how population growth has much to do with it. While the size of certain traffic markets certainly has grown, the trend has been to move to more frequency and there is a benefit to yield by keeping capacity tight assuming your competition is doing likewise.


User currently offlinePhilInBRN From Switzerland, joined Jun 2009, 253 posts, RR: 0
Reply 107, posted (1 year 2 months 2 weeks 1 day 12 hours ago) and read 9279 times:

Quoting DALCE (Reply 102):

Although I can't reveal my source, which is very trustworthy I know for a fact that SWISS will replace their A319's with CS300's. Was this already known to the general public?
Phase out of the 319's already started with HB-IPR being phased out and replaced by 321 HB-ION.
The phase-out will be finished around 2018, which is slow with current fleetsize 6, but the CS's are not flying yet  

Swiss CEO Hohmeister stated just days ago that LX would initially take delivery of ten CS100. After that the exact spread has yet to be determined, but they will undoubtedly also take some CS300, as the article indicates. According to Hohmeister, LX expects the first CS100 to arrive in early 2015. I bet Swiss can't wait to replace those aging Avros.

What also surprised me, the article mentions that the CS100 would seat 120 passengers for LX. Up to this point I figured that 110 seats would be the standard one-class configuration.

Here's the aforementioned article: http://www.businessweek.com/news/201...ed-role-for-bombardier-cseries-jet


User currently offlineconnies4ever From Canada, joined Feb 2006, 4066 posts, RR: 13
Reply 108, posted (1 year 2 months 2 weeks 1 day 11 hours ago) and read 9217 times:

Quoting drgmobile (Reply 106):
"The transfer of the Embraer 175 is part of a broader plan by Air Canada to retool its narrow-body fleet. With the bulk of the company%u2019s A319s already earmarked for the low-cost carrier, what is most likely to happen is a phasing out of the Embraer 190, which the airline has described as an excellent aircraft but an awkward fit (and too large to transfer to a regional partner under the scoping clause in the collective agreement)" http://www.wingsmagazine.com/content/view/7836/

I'd say that the E190s would most likely be traded into BBD as part of a bulk CS100/300 order. Then they're BBD's problem. The A343s, for example, went to Boeing as part of the 77L/77W order.



Nostalgia isn't what it used to be.
User currently offlinePlymSpotter From Spain, joined Jun 2004, 11637 posts, RR: 60
Reply 109, posted (1 year 2 months 2 weeks 1 day 11 hours ago) and read 9204 times:

Quoting PhilInBRN (Reply 107):
I bet Swiss can't wait to replace those aging Avros.

It's not the age, the latter batch are only 12-15 years old. The issue is the fuel consumption now aircraft like the RJ100 isn't the only optimum aircraft for LCY, or for regional operations in general.

Quoting PhilInBRN (Reply 107):
What also surprised me, the article mentions that the CS100 would seat 120 passengers for LX. Up to this point I figured that 110 seats would be the standard one-class configuration.

The 110 seat configuration is Bombardier's 'Urban' base model, capable of the 1,500nm range from small airports like LCY. If you don't need that range, you might as well add in some more seats.


Dan  



...love is just a camouflage for what resembles rage again...
User currently offlineViscount724 From Switzerland, joined Oct 2006, 25090 posts, RR: 22
Reply 110, posted (1 year 2 months 2 weeks 1 day 11 hours ago) and read 9139 times:

Quoting ZBBYLW (Reply 105):
I know people who avoid AC because the red eye into HNL and home.

Only HNL-YVR is a redeye. The westbound flight arrives HNL at 6:15 PM. WS is also a redeye from HNL.

The return redeye is best for connections. People also like being able to spend another afternoon on the beach.


User currently offlineKarelXWB From Netherlands, joined Jul 2012, 11171 posts, RR: 33
Reply 111, posted (1 year 2 months 1 week 15 hours ago) and read 8499 times:

Last week I heard a rumor about the 737 Max and CSeries being a smokescreen and easyJet would buy Airbus anyway because they don't want to retrain the pilots. I didn't pay any attention about this rumor but now Reuters reports that Airbus is the "front-runner" and they might win the order for 100 new jets.

Airbus in advanced talks for $10 billion easyJet order: sources:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/...asyjet-order-idUSBRE95C0SH20130613



Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity. And I'm not sure about the universe.
User currently offlinedouglasyxz From Germany, joined Jan 2013, 96 posts, RR: 0
Reply 112, posted (1 year 2 months 1 week 14 hours ago) and read 8220 times:

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 111):
Airbus in advanced talks for $10 billion easyJet order: sources:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/...30613

Makes sense to maintain the aircraft type and also to up-gauge the fleet. The benefit of a competitor's aircraft must be huge in order to satisfy the cost to roll over the entire fleet. I know it happens sometimes, yet rarely in such dimensions.

Also the A320 instead of A319 makes sense as many LCCs operating that size and air-traffic will be rather growing throughout the next decade.

Sad for BBD, I wished they'd received a part of that deal.
   


User currently offlineflyingcello From United Kingdom, joined Jul 2010, 151 posts, RR: 0
Reply 113, posted (1 year 2 months 1 week 14 hours ago) and read 8162 times:

Quoting douglasyxz (Reply 112):
Sad for BBD, I wished they'd received a part of that deal.

100 NEOs still leaves room for the C series...if you look at the size of the Easyjet fleet, 100 new aircraft will probably only cover routine replacement.


User currently offlineopethfan From Canada, joined Dec 2012, 462 posts, RR: 0
Reply 114, posted (1 year 2 months 1 week 9 hours ago) and read 7787 times:

Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 110):
Only HNL-YVR is a redeye. The westbound flight arrives HNL at 6:15 PM. WS is also a redeye from HNL.

The return redeye is best for connections. People also like being able to spend another afternoon on the beach.

WS from OGG - YVR is also a red-eye.


User currently offlinelightsaber From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 12981 posts, RR: 100
Reply 115, posted (1 year 2 months 1 week 7 hours ago) and read 7690 times:
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Quoting flyingcello (Reply 113):
100 NEOs still leaves room for the C series...if you look at the size of the Easyjet fleet, 100 new aircraft will probably only cover routine replacement.

   The rumor was only for 50 C-series for U2. A 'starter' if you will. I'm a bit disheartened that there hasn't been a U2/C-series announcement yet, but I haven't given up hope.

Quoting YTZ (Reply 94):
I have bought Bombardier stock.

I'm considering... but Bombardier is so much rail and while I'm also a transportation fan... there isn't a "C-series play."

Quoting DALCE (Reply 102):

Although I can't reveal my source, which is very trustworthy I know for a fact that SWISS will replace their A319's with CS300's. Was this already known to the general public?

It has been discussed, but is not 'fact'... yet.

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 90):
Everybody is competing against used planes.

And that everyone needs to remember. But those are heavier aircraft than the C-series with older engines. But it is handicapping Bombardier from getting into some of the smaller airlines until there are enough airlines flying the C-series to bring in the leasing companies. A Catch-22 so to speak... One I see Bombardier overcoming, but it will take time.

Lightsaber



Societies that achieve a critical mass of ideas achieve self sustaining growth; others stagnate.
User currently offlineDALCE From Netherlands, joined Feb 2007, 1680 posts, RR: 7
Reply 116, posted (1 year 2 months 1 week 1 hour ago) and read 7396 times:

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 115):
It has been discussed, but is not 'fact'... yet.

It is, I heard it from top management directly.



flown on : F50,F70,CR1,CR2,CR9,E75,143,AR8,AR1,733,735,736,73G,738,753,744,319,320,321,333,AB6.
User currently offlineYTZ From Canada, joined Jun 2009, 1986 posts, RR: 24
Reply 117, posted (1 year 2 months 6 days 11 hours ago) and read 6885 times:

Quoting flyingcello (Reply 113):
100 NEOs still leaves room for the C series...if you look at the size of the Easyjet fleet, 100 new aircraft will probably only cover routine replacement.

Sadly, I can't see U2 splitting up their ops and getting a second set of crews and maintenance structures. The 320/319 combo let's them use existing crew with very minimal training. And let's them mix and match aircraft to demand.


User currently offlinequeb From Canada, joined May 2010, 663 posts, RR: 3
Reply 118, posted (1 year 2 months 6 days 11 hours ago) and read 6869 times:

Quoting YTZ (Reply 117):
and maintenance structures.

Easyjet line & heavy maintenance is outsourced (SR Technics). Engine maintenance & overhaul is also outsourced to GE.

[Edited 2013-06-14 16:24:38]

User currently offlinePaolo92 From Italy, joined Oct 2007, 260 posts, RR: 0
Reply 119, posted (1 year 2 months 3 days 1 hour ago) and read 6392 times:

Posted it also in the CSeries updates thread, but it fits into this thread:



Easyjet ordered A320 (ceo+neo) because they were "the best aircraft available in the 180-seat category" (and they reportedly got a discount better than the one received in 2002 by Airbus).
It still keeps the door open for the lower end of the Easyjet fleet (in terms of seating). Perhaps after first flight, with some more technical details and specifications, they could order.



Each evening, stars come out their daylight hiding places... But one of those, will be my wingtip, passing over...
User currently offlinevoodoo From Niue, joined Mar 2001, 2074 posts, RR: 0
Reply 120, posted (1 year 2 months 3 days 1 hour ago) and read 6325 times:

Interesting that there is still a.net hope for a U2 C-Series order.
Perhaps U2 themselves don't 'know' what to do yet...apart from what they've just done..order 100 320neos.

They are expanding at Stansted, no? Which means increased rivalry with FR.
So the ball is in FRs court for now to compete with a future U2 NEO fleet.
Perhaps if FR makes a move, a U2 C-Series order will be forthcoming.

[Edited 2013-06-18 02:28:23]


` Yeaah! Baade 152! Trabi of the Sky! '
User currently offlineBoeingVista From Australia, joined Jan 2009, 1575 posts, RR: 3
Reply 121, posted (1 year 2 months 3 days 1 hour ago) and read 6204 times:

Quoting queb (Reply 118):
Engine maintenance & overhaul is also outsourced to GE.

Which will make the engine choice interesting.



BV
User currently offlinelightsaber From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 12981 posts, RR: 100
Reply 122, posted (1 year 2 months 2 days 23 hours ago) and read 5906 times:
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Quoting YTZ (Reply 117):
Sadly, I can't see U2 splitting up their ops and getting a second set of crews and maintenance structures.

If the C-series is "Power by the hour," why not? They've operated two types before and that would give them a *huge* advantage in negotiations for top off orders...

Lightsaber



Societies that achieve a critical mass of ideas achieve self sustaining growth; others stagnate.
User currently offlineBongodog1964 From United Kingdom, joined Oct 2006, 3544 posts, RR: 3
Reply 123, posted (1 year 2 months 2 days 22 hours ago) and read 5622 times:

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 122):
They've operated two types before and that would give them a *huge* advantage in negotiations for top off orders...

Lightsaber

They have, but only as a result of switching from B to A. When the first A319 arrived in the fleet, it was known that the would eventually replace every 737 with a 319.


User currently offlinelightsaber From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 12981 posts, RR: 100
Reply 124, posted (1 year 2 months 2 days 21 hours ago) and read 5485 times:
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Quoting Bongodog1964 (Reply 123):
When the first A319 arrived in the fleet, it was known that the would eventually replace every 737 with a 319.

But that told them the costs of a two airliner fleet. And they kept the 737s longer than many predicted. Who would have thought that 2003 through 2011 it would be a two fleet operation?

For certain routes, the C-series would make more money for U2. Enough routes to justify a sub-fleet.

Lightsaber



Societies that achieve a critical mass of ideas achieve self sustaining growth; others stagnate.
User currently offliner2rho From Germany, joined Feb 2007, 2596 posts, RR: 1
Reply 125, posted (1 year 2 months 2 days 13 hours ago) and read 5081 times:

I still don't rule out the CSeries for U2. 35CEO's + 100 NEO's is not enough to cover all their replacement needs + growth, there will have to be a follow-up order some day. And honestly I wasn't expecting a CSeries order at Le Bourget this year; it's still too early to order, and there's no hurry to commit to the CSeries (but there is a big hurry to secure NEO slots). Time will tell.

User currently offlineplanemaker From Tuvalu, joined Aug 2003, 6144 posts, RR: 34
Reply 126, posted (1 year 2 months 2 days 9 hours ago) and read 4930 times:

Quoting r2rho (Reply 125):
I still don't rule out the CSeries for U2. 35CEO's + 100 NEO's is not enough to cover all their replacement needs + growth, there will have to be a follow-up order some day. And honestly I wasn't expecting a CSeries order at Le Bourget this year; it's still too early to order, and there's no hurry to commit to the CSeries (but there is a big hurry to secure NEO slots). Time will tell.

Easyjet has... easyJet plc Fleet Plans 18 June 2013



Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
User currently offlinewaly777 From United Kingdom, joined Oct 2012, 332 posts, RR: 3
Reply 127, posted (1 year 2 months 2 days 8 hours ago) and read 5028 times:

Quoting r2rho (Reply 125):

I still don't rule out the CSeries for U2. 35CEO's + 100 NEO's is not enough to cover all their replacement needs + growth, there will have to be a follow-up order some day. And honestly I wasn't expecting a CSeries order at Le Bourget this year; it's still too early to order, and there's no hurry to commit to the CSeries (but there is a big hurry to secure NEO slots). Time will tell.

The C-series is completely out of the running for U2, it is NEO all the way. Hopefully someone asks that in an interview and it becomes public knowledge

I had an interview with an insider earlier today; of the C-series, NEO and MAX that were under consideration, the C-series was the first to be eliminated as the decision to stick to a single family strategy ensures continued simplicity. The MAX and NEO were in direct competition to the very last minute. However, Airbus offered a deal too good to refuse and hence the order swung to Airbus.



The test of first-rate intelligence is the ability to hold 2 opposed ideas in the mind concurrently, and still function
User currently offlinedougbr2006 From Brazil, joined Oct 2006, 391 posts, RR: 0
Reply 128, posted (1 year 2 months 2 days 8 hours ago) and read 4949 times:

Quoting waly777 (Reply 127):
The C-series is completely out of the running for U2, it is NEO all the way.

Agreed are we all missing the point, firm order will be more CEO's to fill the gap until NEO, 100 firm NEO plus 100 options.

Easyjet's predicted fleet size in 2020 is consuming all the firm plus the options should the world economy be good at that time. The C series was a dream by other people, but used by Easyjet to probably secure better discounts on the CEO/NEO deals.


User currently offlineflood From United States of America, joined Feb 2009, 1381 posts, RR: 1
Reply 129, posted (1 year 2 months 2 days 7 hours ago) and read 4886 times:

Quoting waly777 (Reply 127):
The C-series is completely out of the running for U2, it is NEO all the way. Hopefully someone asks that in an interview and it becomes public knowledge

David KM of flightglobal tweeted yesterday

"Regarding #Airbus fleet deal, EasyJet says "that's everything" - in other words, don't expect a bolt-on order for any other aircraft. "
http://twitter.com/FlightDKM/status/346890532204732416


User currently offlineJoeCanuck From Canada, joined Dec 2005, 5416 posts, RR: 30
Reply 130, posted (1 year 2 months 2 days 4 hours ago) and read 4712 times:

For one thing, the CSeries wasn't even in the running because it's too small. They obviously wanted to upsize and were pitting the -8MAX against the 320NEO.

The only chance it ever had is if Easyjet decided they absolutely need a 1 for 1 replacement for the 319...and, it seems, they don't.



What the...?
User currently offlinegolfradio From Canada, joined Jun 2009, 757 posts, RR: 2
Reply 131, posted (1 year 2 months 1 day 20 hours ago) and read 4459 times:

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 130):
For one thing, the CSeries wasn't even in the running because it's too small. They obviously wanted to upsize and were pitting the -8MAX against the 320NEO.

The rumours at least (not sure if this was started here on a.net  ) were that U2 was looking at a sub-fleet that was optimized for thinner routes as not route could support the capacity of the MAX or the NEO. And in that regard CSeries was supposed to be in the running.


User currently offlineplanemaker From Tuvalu, joined Aug 2003, 6144 posts, RR: 34
Reply 132, posted (1 year 2 months 1 day 9 hours ago) and read 4228 times:

Quoting golfradio (Reply 131):
The rumours at least (not sure if this was started here on a.net ) were that U2 was looking at a sub-fleet that was optimized for thinner routes as not route could support the capacity of the MAX or the NEO.

The U2 CSeries sub-fleet was definitely a.net "wishful dreaming." It seems that few recognize that U2's existing A319s will end up becoming that "sub-fleet."



Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
User currently offlineSYDAIRPORTS From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 133, posted (1 year 2 months 1 day 7 hours ago) and read 4141 times:

If C series numbers are correct, if would be the perfect hub buster aircraft for Australia.

Secondary airports at major cities could be used, which have much shorter runways.


User currently offliner2rho From Germany, joined Feb 2007, 2596 posts, RR: 1
Reply 134, posted (1 year 2 months 1 day 1 hour ago) and read 4013 times:

If the Cseries is indeed completely out, it is a strategy shift by U2. Under their current business model (smaller a/c to maintain higher frequencies to main destinations - as opposed to, for instance, FR sending twice-weekly 738's to secondary destinations), the CSeries did have a place as A319 replacement. If they are upgauging to almost all-A320 in their new business model, then indeed they either think that most of their routes will support that size and/or will have to reduce frequencies on their smaller routes.

User currently offlineplanemaker From Tuvalu, joined Aug 2003, 6144 posts, RR: 34
Reply 135, posted (1 year 2 months 18 hours ago) and read 3835 times:

Quoting r2rho (Reply 134):
If the Cseries is indeed completely out, it is a strategy shift by U2.

It isn't a "strategy shift" as only 85 A320NEOS's are for A319/A320 replacement... there will still be a chunk of the A319s still in the fleet after all the NEO's are delivered.



Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
User currently offlineYTZ From Canada, joined Jun 2009, 1986 posts, RR: 24
Reply 136, posted (1 year 1 month 3 weeks 5 days 10 hours ago) and read 3431 times:

Quoting planemaker (Reply 135):
It isn't a "strategy shift" as only 85 A320NEOS's are for A319/A320 replacement... there will still be a chunk of the A319s still in the fleet after all the NEO's are delivered.

What? I'd say it most definitely is a significant shift. This is an airline that has less than 60 A320s today. And twice as many A319s. They are ordering nearly as many 320s as there are 319s in the fleet. When the order has run out, their ratio of 320s to 319s will be inverted from what it is today. Indeed, they'll be very close to parity after just the 35 320 CEOs get delivered. Easyjet's own investor presentation says they go from 68% 319 fleet in 2014 to 52% in 2018 and 25% in 2022.


User currently offlineplanemaker From Tuvalu, joined Aug 2003, 6144 posts, RR: 34
Reply 137, posted (1 year 1 month 3 weeks 5 days 7 hours ago) and read 3225 times:

Quoting YTZ (Reply 136):
What? I'd say it most definitely is a significant shift. This is an airline that has less than 60 A320s today. And twice as many A319s. They are ordering nearly as many 320s as there are 319s in the fleet. When the order has run out, their ratio of 320s to 319s will be inverted from what it is today. Indeed, they'll be very close to parity after just the 35 320 CEOs get delivered. Easyjet's own investor presentation says they go from 68% 319 fleet in 2014 to 52% in 2018 and 25% in 2022.

But it isn't a "strategy" shift.



Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
User currently offlineYTZ From Canada, joined Jun 2009, 1986 posts, RR: 24
Reply 138, posted (1 year 1 month 3 weeks 4 days 17 hours ago) and read 3015 times:

Quoting planemaker (Reply 137):
But it isn't a "strategy" shift.

Upsizing to reduce unit cost, as opposed to using smaller aircraft and increased frequencies is not a strategy shift?


User currently offlineplanemaker From Tuvalu, joined Aug 2003, 6144 posts, RR: 34
Reply 139, posted (1 year 1 month 3 weeks 4 days 10 hours ago) and read 2806 times:

Quoting YTZ (Reply 138):
Upsizing to reduce unit cost, as opposed to using smaller aircraft and increased frequencies is not a strategy shift?

They have already been "upsizing", so no shift, let alone a "significant shift". Moreover, it is rational to add 30 seats to a market instead of 150 seats. Furthermore, they have flex built into the deal so that they can adjust their fleet to actual growth.



Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
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