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Will AA/US Move Their TLV Flights From PHL To JFK.  
User currently offlinestaralliance85 From United States of America, joined Jul 2011, 201 posts, RR: 0
Posted (1 year 4 months 1 week 6 days 17 hours ago) and read 8047 times:

Pre-Merger AA was the only US airliner that did not have service to TLV because of their dispute with former TWA employees who were not paid their pensions by TWA/AA.

To say the least AA will have to rectify the situation before they can fly there again.


Once everything is settled, I feel that AA/US will be much more better off moving their TLV flights from PHL to JFK. The New York area has a very large Jewish population and they can easily compete with DL, UA and EY.

As proven in the past New York is the best place for flights to Tel Aviv. For example, JFK-TLV and ATL-TLV (discontinued).

Overall, AA/US will more than likely de-hub PHL a little bit to make JFK T8 a OneWorld Powerhouse.


brad Fitzpatrick
38 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineSTT757 From United States of America, joined Mar 2000, 16878 posts, RR: 51
Reply 1, posted (1 year 4 months 1 week 6 days 16 hours ago) and read 7977 times:

Quoting staralliance85 (Thread starter):

Overall, AA/US will more than likely de-hub PHL a little bit to make JFK T8 a OneWorld Powerhouse.

Not unless they can create new slots, and lots of them. AA's JFK operation handles about 90 flights a day, US at PHL is probably above 400.



Eastern Air lines flt # 701, EWR-MCO Boeing 757
User currently offlineByrdluvs747 From United States of America, joined Jul 2004, 2361 posts, RR: 1
Reply 2, posted (1 year 4 months 1 week 6 days 16 hours ago) and read 7956 times:

Quoting staralliance85 (Thread starter):
Once everything is settled, I feel that AA/US will be much more better off moving their TLV flights from PHL to JFK. The New York area has a very large Jewish population and they can easily compete with DL, UA and EY.

As proven in the past New York is the best place for flights to Tel Aviv. For example, JFK-TLV and ATL-TLV (discontinued).

Please explain how the new airline is supposed to capture connecting traffic at JFK.

PHL-TLV will remain as PHL is better suited for connections. If and when AA starts TLV service from JFK, it will be to capture O&D traffic.



The 747: The hands who designed it were guided by god.
User currently offlineMah4546 From Sweden, joined Jan 2001, 32882 posts, RR: 71
Reply 3, posted (1 year 4 months 1 week 6 days 16 hours ago) and read 7959 times:

Quoting STT757 (Reply 1):
Not unless they can create new slots, and lots of them. AA's JFK operation handles about 90 flights a day, US at PHL is probably above 400.

Seriously, this again?

JFK is not slot constrained outside of peak, and AA is indeed squatting on a large number of peak slots being used for domestic flying.

AA can probably grow JFK to a 140-160 daily flight operation if it choses, but I don't see that happening. Slots aren't stopping it, though.



a.
User currently offlineblue100 From United States of America, joined Mar 2012, 44 posts, RR: 0
Reply 4, posted (1 year 4 months 1 week 6 days 15 hours ago) and read 7801 times:

Quoting Byrdluvs747 (Reply 2):
Please explain how the new airline is supposed to capture connecting traffic at JFK.

PHL-TLV will remain as PHL is better suited for connections. If and when AA starts TLV service from JFK, it will be to capture O&D traffic.

While I know that there is a significant portion of TLV bound traffic from other US cities, New York makes up a very large percentage of the traffic. While I'm sure that there is some traffic that leaks to PHL, I would wager that most of the New York traffic to TLV will simply go nonstop or via Europe.

AA does not need 400 flights a day at JFK to fill a flight to TLV. The most important cities to offer connections to and from would be MIA and LAX. AA already has flights that arrive at 7:30pm or later from both cities flights and the most popular time for departures to TLV is generally 10-12pm. The return flight could leave during the late night bank from TLV and arrive early morning to JFK, allowing for early morning connections to both LAX and MIA. I believe that if AA would like to serve TLV from JFK, they are more than capable of doing so.

Just my   


User currently offlineboberito6589 From United States of America, joined Nov 2009, 355 posts, RR: 0
Reply 5, posted (1 year 4 months 1 week 6 days 14 hours ago) and read 7735 times:

What if AA flew JFK-TLV & PHL-TLV!?   

User currently offlinecjpmaestro From United States of America, joined Mar 2011, 88 posts, RR: 0
Reply 6, posted (1 year 4 months 1 week 6 days 10 hours ago) and read 7493 times:

Quoting boberito6589 (Reply 5):
boberito6589 From United States of America, joined Nov 2009, 239 posts, RR: 0
Reply 5, posted Tue May 21 2013 03:32:24 your local time (4 hours 2 minutes 54 secs ago) and read 0 times:


What if AA flew JFK-TLV & PHL-TLV!?

Probably what would more likely happen IMHO. The PHL-TLV does extremely well for US without tapping the NYC market. I don't see this flight going anywhere unless the TWA situation impacts the airline after the merger.

Quoting staralliance85 (Thread starter):
Overall, AA/US will more than likely de-hub PHL a little bit to make JFK T8 a OneWorld Powerhouse.

Not going to happen. JFK and PHL will be two seperate hubs utilized differently. Also, with Qatar coming to PHL, we'll most likely see PHL get beefed-up with more of a OneWorld presence rather than de-hubbed.


User currently offlinemesaflyguy From United States of America, joined Dec 2012, 3160 posts, RR: 5
Reply 7, posted (1 year 4 months 1 week 6 days 10 hours ago) and read 7398 times:
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Quoting boberito6589 (Reply 5):

that was my first thought as well. Keep PHL for connex and JFK for O&D



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User currently offlinejfk777 From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 8387 posts, RR: 7
Reply 8, posted (1 year 4 months 1 week 6 days 7 hours ago) and read 7132 times:
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Quoting cjpmaestro (Reply 6):
Probably what would more likely happen IMHO. The PHL-TLV does extremely well for US without tapping the NYC market. I don't see this flight going anywhere unless the TWA situation impacts the airline after the merger.

PHL to Israel does well, why fix what works ? Southern New Jersey probably fills lots of the plane since Newark has so many flights to Tel Aviv too. With United at Newark and El AL at JFK, its a well covered market.


User currently offlineD L X From United States of America, joined May 1999, 11381 posts, RR: 52
Reply 9, posted (1 year 4 months 1 week 6 days 7 hours ago) and read 7040 times:

Quoting staralliance85 (Thread starter):
Overall, AA/US will more than likely de-hub PHL

Not a chance at all that this happens.

Believe it or not, there is life in the United States outside of NYC.

Quoting boberito6589 (Reply 5):
What if AA flew JFK-TLV & PHL-TLV!?

Now, this I could see happening. However, NYC already has a lot of lift to TLV: four flights from JFK by DL and LY, and three from EWR by UA and LY.



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User currently offline802flyguy From United States of America, joined May 2012, 204 posts, RR: 0
Reply 10, posted (1 year 4 months 1 week 6 days 6 hours ago) and read 6912 times:

Quoting Byrdluvs747 (Reply 2):
PHL-TLV will remain as PHL is better suited for connections. If and when AA starts TLV service from JFK, it will be to capture O&D traffic.

I am sorry if this has been covered elsewhere, but how many markets are served by US out of PHL vs those served by AA out of JFK. My guess is that Philly offers more connection.


User currently offlineAADC10 From United States of America, joined Nov 2004, 2092 posts, RR: 0
Reply 11, posted (1 year 4 months 1 week 6 days 4 hours ago) and read 6758 times:

Quoting staralliance85 (Thread starter):
To say the least AA will have to rectify the situation before they can fly there again.

Will they or can they? It is not a foregone conclusion. AMR's liability may be millions of dollars with interest and penalties by now and Israel clearly will not let them off the hook through a merger or Ch. 11 so they may decide it is just not worth flying there as it could take a decade before they can generate enough profit to make up for the payments. TLV is obviously not big enough for more than a handful of routes from the USA so it is probably not hugely profitable.


User currently offlineD L X From United States of America, joined May 1999, 11381 posts, RR: 52
Reply 12, posted (1 year 4 months 1 week 6 days 3 hours ago) and read 6691 times:

Quoting AADC10 (Reply 11):
Quoting staralliance85 (Thread starter):
To say the least AA will have to rectify the situation before they can fly there again.

Will they or can they? It is not a foregone conclusion. AMR's liability may be millions of dollars with interest and penalties by now and Israel clearly will not let them off the hook through a merger or Ch. 11

How do we know this?

Has Israel made any comments at all on this topic since merger speculation began?



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User currently offlineDeltal1011man From United States of America, joined Sep 2005, 9508 posts, RR: 14
Reply 13, posted (1 year 4 months 1 week 6 days 3 hours ago) and read 6585 times:

Quoting staralliance85 (Thread starter):

Always a good idea to cut something that makes money and move it to a city that has 3 other carriers and a ton of capacity on the route. (well....That does kinda seem like something AA likes to do.)

Quoting Mah4546 (Reply 3):
Seriously, this again?

Seriously, not reading what he said again?
He said the PHL hub can't be moved to JFK.....it can't.

Quoting Mah4546 (Reply 3):
but I don't see that happening

Ah I don't see why not, I thought it would be a good idea to fly a bunch of flights a non-peak times.  

Come on, AA is going to take over the world remember?

Quoting AADC10 (Reply 11):
Ch. 11

Yeah that happens to everyone. Any debt any US airline has had outside of the US doesn't get to go away. BK only works inside the country.



yep.
User currently offlinemax550 From United States of America, joined Nov 2007, 1151 posts, RR: 0
Reply 14, posted (1 year 4 months 1 week 6 days 2 hours ago) and read 6489 times:

Quoting staralliance85 (Thread starter):
Once everything is settled, I feel that AA/US will be much more better off moving their TLV flights from PHL to JFK. The New York area has a very large Jewish population and they can easily compete with DL, UA and EY.


As proven in the past New York is the best place for flights to Tel Aviv. For example, JFK-TLV and ATL-TLV (discontinued).

The New York area does have a very large Jewish population but PHL is easily able to handle a daily flight to TLV. As for the JFK/ATL example, DL ran JFK-TLV for three months in '01, started ATL-TLV in '05, started JFK-TLV in '08 and then cancelled ATL-TLV in '11. Hardly evidence that NYC is the only place that works to TLV.

Quoting staralliance85 (Thread starter):
Overall, AA/US will more than likely de-hub PHL a little bit to make JFK T8 a OneWorld Powerhouse.

Not going to happen. What good does a T8 OW powerhouse do without domestic connections? Connect Europe with Asia?

Quoting 802flyguy (Reply 10):
I am sorry if this has been covered elsewhere, but how many markets are served by US out of PHL vs those served by AA out of JFK. My guess is that Philly offers more connection.

US at PHL serve 218 destinations non-stop while AA at JFK serve 49.

US serves 15 destinations in Europe from PHL while AA serves 9. US has 8 European destinations from PHL that AA doesn't serve from JFK and AA has 2 destinations from JFK that aren't served by US from PHL.

For comparison DL serves 62 destinations from JFK and 20 European destinations.


User currently offlineSTT757 From United States of America, joined Mar 2000, 16878 posts, RR: 51
Reply 15, posted (1 year 4 months 1 week 6 days 1 hour ago) and read 6408 times:

Quoting Mah4546 (Reply 3):
JFK is not slot constrained outside of peak, and AA is indeed squatting on a large number of peak slots being used for domestic flying

They're available at those times for a reason (they're undesirable/uncompetitive/not viable) correct, otherwise AA, B6 or DL would have been all over them a while ago.



Eastern Air lines flt # 701, EWR-MCO Boeing 757
User currently offlinecommavia From United States of America, joined Apr 2005, 11709 posts, RR: 62
Reply 16, posted (1 year 4 months 1 week 5 days 23 hours ago) and read 6214 times:

Quoting staralliance85 (Thread starter):
Overall, AA/US will more than likely de-hub PHL a little bit to make JFK T8 a OneWorld Powerhouse.

I continue to be fascinated by this theory that somehow AA could "de-hub" PHL and shift this capacity to JFK, even if it wanted to. It can't! JFK can never replicate PHL. It simply cannot happen. JFK is too capacity-constrained, and too competitive, a market. JFK, and NYC in general, is a great market, and one that will figure quite prominently for AA post-merger (the combined airline will have about 300 daily departures in the region). But JFK can never serve as a true megahub in the way PHL can. It caters to a huge and extremely high-yielding local market, which is what AA can focus on - leaving the hub connectivity primarily to PHL.

Quoting boberito6589 (Reply 5):
What if AA flew JFK-TLV & PHL-TLV!?
Quoting cjpmaestro (Reply 6):
Probably what would more likely happen IMHO.

  

This what I expect will happen. AA will work out whatever needs to be worked out in Israel, and AA will not only continue the PHL-TLV flights, but add a JFK-TLV flight alongside. Both markets should work. PHL is a decent local market and offers huge connectivity, while JFK is obviously a massive O&D market. AA should be able to do well in both markets.


User currently offlinejmc1975 From Israel, joined Sep 2000, 3283 posts, RR: 15
Reply 17, posted (1 year 4 months 1 week 5 days 3 hours ago) and read 5641 times:

Quoting max550 (Reply 14):
As for the JFK/ATL example, DL ran JFK-TLV for three months in '01, started ATL-TLV in '05, started JFK-TLV in '08 and then cancelled ATL-TLV in '11. Hardly evidence that NYC is the only place that works to TLV.

True that! Just because DL dropped ATL-TLV doesn't mean that it was an entirely unsuccessful route. It was simply a matter of them finding a more profitable way to utilize the 1.5 777s in a high fuel price environment, and they could cancel the route without losing the most valuable clientele, most of which could be accommodated by the JFK-TLV flight.



.......
User currently offlineflybaby From United States of America, joined Apr 2006, 91 posts, RR: 0
Reply 18, posted (1 year 4 months 1 week 4 days 21 hours ago) and read 5442 times:

Just wanted to mention that the Israeli courts have yet to weigh in on the issue in the context of the merger yet. Anything could happen but I wonder if the end result would be that they'll let the merged company retain the current PHL-TLV service but they would not be allowed to add any new routes to TLV or change the origination from PHL unless they work out some deal with the former TWA staff over there.

User currently offlinesteeler83 From United States of America, joined Feb 2006, 9217 posts, RR: 21
Reply 19, posted (1 year 4 months 1 week 4 days 20 hours ago) and read 5403 times:

Quoting max550 (Reply 14):
US serves 15 destinations in Europe from PHL while AA serves 9. US has 8 European destinations from PHL that AA doesn't serve from JFK and AA has 2 destinations from JFK that aren't served by US from PHL.

This is what I am thinking here:

Whatever connecting traffic there is at JFK will be re-routed through PHL. Apparently, there is some domestic connectivity going on at JFK. JFK, however, will see more int'l O&D city pairs opening up.

Both will be major gateways to Europe, with JFK being the larger of the two (maybe).

In terms of daily departures, PHL will be a primary hub while JFK will be a 2ndary one while most of the flights at JFK will be international...



Do not bring stranger girt into your room. The stranger girt is dangerous, it will hurt your life.
User currently onlinejfklganyc From United States of America, joined Jan 2004, 3508 posts, RR: 5
Reply 20, posted (1 year 4 months 1 week 4 days 19 hours ago) and read 5254 times:

Quoting steeler83 (Reply 19):
In terms of daily departures, PHL will be a primary hub while JFK will be a 2ndary one while most of the flights at JFK will be international...

Interesting.

So what of the AA domestic network out of JFK:

BOS 4x
DCA 6x
BWI 1x
RDU 4x
ORF 1x
CLE 1x
PIT 1x
CVG 1x
CLT 5x US
MCO 2x
FLL 1x seasonal
TPA 1x
MIA 6x
AUS 1x
ORD 1x
DFW 1x
IAH 1x
SJU 4x
STT 1x
PHX 4x US
LAS 2x
SEA 1x
LAX 9x
SFO 4x
SAN 1x

64 domestic flights including US. 53 without US. And I may be missing a few cities...this is just off the top of my head.

They fly around 90 flights per day (100 with US). That's a 60/40 split.

How much can that ratio change? How many more international routes can be started?

Also, some feed has to stay there to fill some of the seats.

I can see AA leaving JFK altogether. Or I can see them building upon what they have.

I do not see the ratio of domestic/international changing very much in terms of flights


User currently offlineflybaby From United States of America, joined Apr 2006, 91 posts, RR: 0
Reply 21, posted (1 year 4 months 1 week 4 days 13 hours ago) and read 5111 times:

64 domestic flights, yes - but many are just 1x. Not reasonable to operate an intl' gateway that way.

User currently offlineusairways85 From United States of America, joined Nov 2001, 3413 posts, RR: 7
Reply 22, posted (1 year 4 months 1 week 4 days 10 hours ago) and read 5037 times:

Quoting steeler83 (Reply 19):
Both will be major gateways to Europe, with JFK being the larger of the two (maybe).

I certainly see the value of the JFK TA international gateway with exponentially more O&D than PHL. Though JFK faces exponentially more competition than PHL. How many TA routes has AA tried from JFK that haven't worked and were ultimately cancelled?

If AA/US really only build JFK into a ~150/day operation that isn't a ton of additional connections flowing through than there currenty are. AA/US may certainly be able to move some TA flts from PHL to JFK, however I don't think that many routes can simply be moved from PHL to JFK and expected to be stellar performers from JFK in the competitive market. Once again this assumes JFK is at no more than 150 flts/day


User currently onlinejfklganyc From United States of America, joined Jan 2004, 3508 posts, RR: 5
Reply 23, posted (1 year 4 months 1 week 4 days 10 hours ago) and read 4976 times:

Quoting flybaby (Reply 21):
64 domestic flights, yes - but many are just 1x. Not reasonable to operate an intl' gateway that way.

Actually, it works well. They are timed to connect with the TA bank.

Delta has been doing the same thing across the field for 20 years...except they use 2 afternoon banks. They also have a morning bank...but thats serves another purpose.


User currently offlineouboy79 From United States of America, joined Nov 2001, 4602 posts, RR: 23
Reply 24, posted (1 year 4 months 1 week 4 days 6 hours ago) and read 4829 times:

Quoting D L X (Reply 9):
Believe it or not, there is life in the United States outside of NYC.

Hey now, stop that thinking right there! The other 310 million of us don't want to be found out.  


25 HPRamper : I mostly agree, but you can't just have international there. Lots of business is domestic. Right. I think routes like 1x FLL should be flowed across
26 n737aa : Most of the EU Intl' arrivals are before 10am and departures are after 6pm.....1x service from key cities works fine for that since the O&D is re
27 steeler83 : Oh yeah, I know that. I think you'll have quite a few domestic flights as well as international. It will probably be a 50/50 split. I know someone ab
28 luckyone : I think that's people in general being what's around them. I used to live in a small town in NE Georgia and most peoples' sphere of relevance spanned
29 ORDTLV2414 : I fly ORD-TLV alot. I've connected in JFK with AA/LY and DL and flown US through PHL and various european/LY flight and of course AC via YYZ. JFK is s
30 Post contains images HPRamper : You mean it's not?
31 discoverCSG : What is the purpose of DL's morning domestic bank at JFK? Most New Yorkers who fly to FLL would avoid such an itinerary in droves. With B6, DL, UA@EW
32 MasseyBrown : I wonder if there isn't some way that the AMR estate in bankruptcy could be left to die with certain assets and obligations (such as the Israeli empl
33 Mah4546 : They are perfectly viable for expansion to South America and Asia. Fortunately for AA, Delta was the guinea pig, found that serving every runway in E
34 STT757 : I really don't see any Asian expansion from AA at JFK, they should instead focus Asian growth from LAX. And where else can they go in South America f
35 panamair : With the cost and economic environment at that time, it worked. It only started falling apart when fuel prices shot up and Europe became an economic
36 usairways85 : LAX-Asia is pretty much a blood bath in terms of competition.
37 FreshSide3 : There is also less capacity from ORD-JFK than there used to be. So, PHL/EWR/Europe are better options. ORD is also a bit of a "wild card" in this sce
38 EricR : While it might be easy to say that it didn't work, one has to dig deeper to determine why it didn't work. DL's European expansion worked well until t
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