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Need For New 19-40 Seater Aircraft?  
User currently offlineAndrensn From New Zealand, joined Jun 2012, 70 posts, RR: 0
Posted (1 year 1 month 3 weeks 1 day 19 hours ago) and read 10287 times:

With aircraft such as the SAAB 340 and the Beech 1900 becoming older and less efficient is there currently a need for a new aircraft or series of aircrafts in the 19-40 seater market. I feel that unless a manufacturer is able to create a plane to replace aging aircraft of this size many routes and airlines around the globe will cease to exist soon.
Also how many passenger aircraft seating between 19 and 40 PAX are in service globally and how bigger market really is this???

Your thoughts??

61 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineJoKeR From Serbia, joined Nov 2004, 2232 posts, RR: 9
Reply 1, posted (1 year 1 month 3 weeks 1 day 18 hours ago) and read 10149 times:

The need is definitely there, though the numbers may not be to very large OEM's liking.

Attempts to replace turbo-prop oldies has been rather disappointing so far, I guess the big OEM's simply don't see this as profitable enough, and others will say that ATR still offers the fantastic 42-600 and that plane is not selling on droves.

But I always had a feeling that the ATR42 is simply too much of a plane for certain required missions. Still wiping my tears over the 328 demise, what a fantastic little performer, but they did not survive either.

So let's see if someone will be brave enough to tackle this market niche.



Kafa, čaj, šraf?
User currently offlinecobra27 From Slovenia, joined May 2001, 1008 posts, RR: 0
Reply 2, posted (1 year 1 month 3 weeks 1 day 18 hours ago) and read 10099 times:

True, there is market gap there. Embraer should develop one

User currently offlinePlymSpotter From Spain, joined Jun 2004, 11607 posts, RR: 60
Reply 3, posted (1 year 1 month 3 weeks 1 day 18 hours ago) and read 10018 times:

In my opinion the market is there for a ~35 seat STOL frame capable of operating within RFFS Cat 3 requirements and from Code 1 runways - those with declared distances of 799m or less. Much of the original 35 seat market has ceased to exist and what is left focuses around this niche, where there will be a significant void over the coming 10 years.

In other words, a Dash 8-100/200 and Do328 replacement will be required for remote/island operations like Wideroe. If you are currently using a J-41, Saab 340 or EMB-120 then you don't need such a STOL aircraft and the best replacement is most likely the ATR 72 or, if demand is low, the ATR 42 - both offer better performance.

I wouldn't rule out a reintroduction of the Q200 by Viking, it's less costly and risky than a clean sheet design.

Quoting cobra27 (Reply 2):
Embraer should develop one

Embraer have categorically said they will not be returning to the 50 seat and below category.


Dan  



...love is just a camouflage for what resembles rage again...
User currently offlinedrgmobile From Canada, joined Aug 2006, 594 posts, RR: 0
Reply 4, posted (1 year 1 month 3 weeks 1 day 10 hours ago) and read 9463 times:

As the largest operator of Dash 8-100s with 36 aircraft, Jazz has indicated that it would be interested in a new 37-seat aircraft but I don't think that's enough of a commitment to justify the launch of a new model. On the small capacity end of the range, the Twin Otter is now being built once again by Viking Aircraft That's a 19-seater

User currently offlinegr09 From Czech Republic, joined Jul 2008, 115 posts, RR: 0
Reply 5, posted (1 year 1 month 3 weeks 1 day 5 hours ago) and read 9130 times:

At the bottom of the range (19 passengers) there should be a new version of L-410 soon.
http://www.let.cz/clanek_295_vyvoj-l410-ng.html?lang=2


User currently offlineViscount724 From Switzerland, joined Oct 2006, 24664 posts, RR: 22
Reply 6, posted (1 year 1 month 3 weeks 1 day 4 hours ago) and read 9035 times:

Quoting PlymSpotter (Reply 3):
I wouldn't rule out a reintroduction of the Q200 by Viking, it's less costly and risky than a clean sheet design.

Viking owns the type certificates for the DHC-1 through -7 only, not the Dash 8.


User currently offlinePlymSpotter From Spain, joined Jun 2004, 11607 posts, RR: 60
Reply 7, posted (1 year 1 month 3 weeks 1 day 3 hours ago) and read 8924 times:

Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 6):
Viking owns the type certificates for the DHC-1 through -7 only, not the Dash 8.

Bombardier stated they have no intention to return to the Q200 market size, but it doesn't take a giant leap of the imagination to consider that they would sell the type or license production to someone who would. There is no competition between a Q200 size aircraft and any current Bombardier products, so unless they have something planned for the future it would be another revenue stream.


Dan  



...love is just a camouflage for what resembles rage again...
User currently offlineKarlB737 From United States of America, joined Mar 2004, 3090 posts, RR: 10
Reply 8, posted (1 year 1 month 3 weeks 1 day 3 hours ago) and read 8862 times:

Quoting Andrensn (Thread starter):
I feel that unless a manufacturer is able to create a plane to replace aging aircraft of this size

Similar threads on this subject in the past have indicated that you can still get an E-120.


User currently onlineTWA772LR From United States of America, joined Nov 2011, 1686 posts, RR: 1
Reply 9, posted (1 year 1 month 3 weeks 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 8745 times:

Maybe Pilatus is willing to step up to the plate?


Go coogs! \n//
User currently offlinemacsog6 From Singapore, joined Jan 2010, 525 posts, RR: 0
Reply 10, posted (1 year 1 month 3 weeks 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 8716 times:
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With Beech dropping out of the jet business, would they consider putting the B1900D back into production after updating it? The C model faced pax dislike due to the low cabin ceiling, but the D model, whilst a bit awkward looking, was nice to fly.


Sixty Plus Years of Flying! "I fly because it releases my mind from the tyranny of petty things." - Saint Ex
User currently offlinehawaiian717 From United States of America, joined May 1999, 3188 posts, RR: 7
Reply 11, posted (1 year 1 month 3 weeks 1 day 1 hour ago) and read 8661 times:

US Airways has openly stated they're looking for a small and slow prop. Manufacturers don't seem to want to build one.

http://crankyflier.com/2013/04/25/ac...and-new-york-to-american-and-more/


User currently offlinefrancoflier From France, joined Oct 2001, 3718 posts, RR: 11
Reply 12, posted (1 year 1 month 3 weeks 23 hours ago) and read 7980 times:

Quoting gr09 (Reply 5):
At the bottom of the range (19 passengers) there should be a new version of L-410 soon.

The LET 410 is a great little aircraft. Very underrated due to its Soviet roots, but a new version equipped with recognizably named equipment and engines would hopefully muster more interest in the west.



Looks like I picked the wrong week to quit posting...
User currently offlinebomber996 From United States of America, joined Aug 2005, 390 posts, RR: 0
Reply 13, posted (1 year 1 month 3 weeks 22 hours ago) and read 7880 times:

Quoting hawaiian717 (Reply 11):

US Airways has openly stated they're looking for a small and slow prop. Manufacturers don't seem to want to build one.

http://crankyflier.com/2013/04/25/ac...more/

Very interesting link.... Thanks for sharing!!

Peace   



AVIATION - A Vacation In Any Town, I Own Nothing
User currently offlineplanemaker From Tuvalu, joined Aug 2003, 6079 posts, RR: 34
Reply 14, posted (1 year 1 month 3 weeks 22 hours ago) and read 7866 times:

Quoting hawaiian717 (Reply 11):
US Airways has openly stated they're looking for a small and slow prop. Manufacturers don't seem to want to build one.

They can always buy the Dornier 228NG.



Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
User currently offlinegr09 From Czech Republic, joined Jul 2008, 115 posts, RR: 0
Reply 15, posted (1 year 1 month 3 weeks 22 hours ago) and read 7687 times:

Quoting francoflier (Reply 12):
Very underrated due to its Soviet roots

The L410 project was initiated based on a demand from Russia looking for an An-2 replacement and Aeroflot was it's biggest customer but the plane itself was designed and manufactured in Czechoslovakia.

I also with it would sell better in the West, let's see how successful the L410NG will be.


User currently offlineseahawk From Germany, joined May 2005, 916 posts, RR: 0
Reply 16, posted (1 year 1 month 3 weeks 22 hours ago) and read 7635 times:

Do228 is too small. On the other hand I wonder if AA could not do with the ATR 42-600.

User currently offlineyenne09 From Canada, joined Jun 2010, 186 posts, RR: 0
Reply 17, posted (1 year 1 month 3 weeks 16 hours ago) and read 6657 times:

In eearlier thread this subject has been discussed a lot. There are many new versions of older aircraft already or that will be ready soon in the category up to 19 aircraft:

1)up to 9 seats: Britten-Norman Turbo-Islander (UK), Evektor EV-55 Outback (Czhek republic), Vulcanair A-Viator (Italy),

2)10-19 seats: Dirgantara N-219 (Indonesia), Gipps Aero GA-18 (a kind of new Nomad) (Australia) ,
Harbin Y-12F (China), Let 410 NG (Czhek Rep.), NAL Saras (India), PZL M-28 Skytruck (Poland),
Technoavia Rysachok (Russia), RUAG Do 228NG (very expensive) (Swiss-Germany),
Viking Twin Otter 400.
3)70-90: PT Ilthabie/PT Eagle Cap «New 70-90 pax aircraft (Enlarged N-250?) (indonesia)

Unfortunately, up to now theris is no new project bet 21 and 50 pax. It seems for a time that Saab was looking to return to commercial aviation but there is no confirmation of that.


User currently offlineAirbusA6 From United Kingdom, joined Apr 2005, 2006 posts, RR: 0
Reply 18, posted (1 year 1 month 3 weeks 14 hours ago) and read 6497 times:

One problem is that everyone has become obsessed with regional jets, thus when countries want to start or reboot their aviation industry, it's the overcrowded RJ market they target. An-148, Mitsubishi MRJ, the Superjet, the ARJ-21, the larger C series etc. Even India is targetting a new RJ.

If one of them had decided to produce an all new 30-40 seater prop, they'd have a whole segment to themselves. Not massive sales, but steady sales and a good way to build up a customer base. After all Embraer worked their way up from small props, and it worked well for them!



it's the bus to stansted (now renamed national express a4 to ruin my username)
User currently onlineTWA772LR From United States of America, joined Nov 2011, 1686 posts, RR: 1
Reply 19, posted (1 year 1 month 3 weeks 13 hours ago) and read 6452 times:

Quoting AirbusA6 (Reply 18):
One problem is that everyone has become obsessed with regional jets,

But with everyone realizing they are a money pit, the worlds RJ fleet will be back to almost nothing but 70+ seaters, with 50 seaters here-and-there.

The turboprop will regain the throne of most profitable regional aircraft, albeit in about 10-20 years.



Go coogs! \n//
User currently onlineJoeCanuck From Canada, joined Dec 2005, 5384 posts, RR: 30
Reply 20, posted (1 year 1 month 3 weeks 8 hours ago) and read 6228 times:

Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 6):

Viking owns the type certificates for the DHC-1 through -7 only, not the Dash 8.

I would be willing to be that BBD would sell the rights for the 100/200/300.

Quoting macsog6 (Reply 10):
With Beech dropping out of the jet business, would they consider putting the B1900D back into production after updating it? The C model faced pax dislike due to the low cabin ceiling, but the D model, whilst a bit awkward looking, was nice to fly.

They still make the King Air, and there is some commonality there so I would venture that it's possible.

One problem is that these turbo props last forever, and there are so many out there...though fewer every year.
At some point, the used supply will shrink enough for new planes to be worthwhile.

Another problem is the price of fuel. People will only pay so much money to fly on a little plane and the CASM is just low enough to make it pay.



What the...?
User currently offlinefreeze3192 From United States of America, joined Oct 2006, 164 posts, RR: 0
Reply 21, posted (1 year 1 month 3 weeks 8 hours ago) and read 6220 times:

The CommutAir President/Owner recently spoke at an RAA conference and mentioned this very subject:

Quote:
Asked about using out-of-production aircraft, Sullivan noted that those in the CommutAir fleet “have had about 30,000 hours of operation, so they’re pretty early in their life cycle”. That does not stop him from wanting a more modern replacement though. “I could use one now. I would be delighted to hear that someone was going to produce a 30-50 seat turboprop with modern technology, materials, and maintenance schedules. We haven’t counted out the ATR 42, but we don’t like the idea of just a single source.”
http://www.hmgaerospace.com/news/show/5265

I think Bombardier would do very well with an updated Q200/Q300 with new engines and avionics. There was a thread a few months back about them considering starting the line back up again, but I think someone claimed that the tooling was destroyed. Who knows. Either way, there's a market for a new 19-50 seat turboprop. Just takes a manufacturer to realize it.



"A passenger bets his life that his pilot is a worthy heir to an ancient tradition of excellence and professionalism."
User currently offlinepanais From Cyprus, joined May 2008, 453 posts, RR: 0
Reply 22, posted (1 year 1 month 3 weeks 8 hours ago) and read 6162 times:

What engine? any new 40-50 seater, needs to be able to beat the CASM of the MRJ and the E-175 neo.

User currently onlineJoeCanuck From Canada, joined Dec 2005, 5384 posts, RR: 30
Reply 23, posted (1 year 1 month 3 weeks 7 hours ago) and read 6123 times:

Quoting panais (Reply 22):
What engine? any new 40-50 seater, needs to be able to beat the CASM of the MRJ and the E-175 neo.

CASM isn't everything. If you only have 30 passengers, the great CASM of those extra seats is just extra expense.



What the...?
User currently offlineYVRLTN From Canada, joined Oct 2006, 2435 posts, RR: 0
Reply 24, posted (1 year 1 month 3 weeks 3 hours ago) and read 5980 times:

Quoting planemaker (Reply 14):
They can always buy the Dornier 228NG.

If RUAG can build the 228, is there anything to stop them building the 328? Also you should be able to confirm the truth of the below which I have seen stated several times?

Quoting KarlB737 (Reply 8):
Similar threads on this subject in the past have indicated that you can still get an E-120.
Quoting panais (Reply 22):
What engine?

If PWC cant uprate the PT6A further, Im sure they would offer the PW118 which powers the EMB120 still.

Quoting francoflier (Reply 12):
The LET 410 is a great little aircraft. Very underrated due to its Soviet roots, but a new version equipped with recognizably named equipment and engines would hopefully muster more interest in the west.
Quoting drgmobile (Reply 4):
As the largest operator of Dash 8-100s with 36 aircraft, Jazz has indicated that it would be interested in a new 37-seat aircraft but I don't think that's enough of a commitment to justify the launch of a new model. On the small capacity end of the range, the Twin Otter is now being built once again by Viking Aircraft That's a 19-seater

Its an interesting conundrum for Jazz. Q400's are coming in, but as CRJ replacements. The aircraft is far too large for many of the routes.

The main issue I think is that these types are generally operated by second tier carriers like 8P and Hawkair in YVR for example, who dont have the money to buy new metal. They are already operating hand me downs, so when there are no more left Im not sure what they will do. 8P's 1900C's are 28 years old, and the "new" Saab's which replaced the Shorts (which were not much younger and already largely out of service...) are not far behind as early c/n's. Theres no way they can afford a new RUAG 228 or an ATR.



Follow me on twitter for YVR movements @vernonYVR
25 Post contains links briboy : BBD has a rebuild program for the Dash-8 http://www.bombardier.ca/en/aerospac...ses/details?docID=0901260d800c2ab8 "Bombardier Commercial Aircraft has
26 Post contains images PlymSpotter : That kicks the ball further down the road, but then what? I know in theory it gives the aircraft 50% more life, but most are likely to be withdrawn w
27 YVRLTN : Meant to add the L410 has operated in the UK with a couple of carriers now for a while with little negative result.
28 RyanairGuru : I believe that this is the biggest problem. The larger carriers are more interested in the ATR/Q400 (UA, AC, QF, NZ etc) and while they do operate sm
29 AirNovaBAe146 : How big is the supply of Dash 8/J41s/SF340s/ATR42s/D328Props/E120s and even B1900/J31&J32s/D228Prop on the used aircraft market? I know in the la
30 JoeCanuck : There must be a glut at the moment because nobody is ordering them. It's easy to say you'd like some new aircraft...but all it takes is one order to
31 silentbob : If that were the case, they wouldn't have shut down the line
32 AirNovaBAe146 : I've been working in aviation in third world countries for the last ~6 years or so. Anytime an airline or charter operator acquires something "new" t
33 JoeCanuck : They would be thrilled to make their aircraft. They stopped building them because customers stopped buying them. If customer decide they want them ag
34 YLWbased : There is the DHC6-400, it seats 20. YLWbased
35 Post contains images PlymSpotter : Perhaps long term, but Bombardier have made it very clear that for now the Q200/300 line is closed and will remain that way for the foreseeable futur
36 BMED : One UK company that jumps to mind is Loganair. With a fleet of SAAB 340s they will need replacing an there isn't a need to jump to anything larger so
37 Post contains images PlymSpotter : They have a small fleet of Do 328s - this is a contender, it's still a younger aircraft than the Saabs. Otherwise I suspect the ATR 42 would be their
38 silentbob : All of the Colgan/Mesaba Saabs that were retired must be available if someone really wanted them.
39 Post contains images NWAROOSTER : If my information is correct, there are only about two Saab 340B+ aircraft in storage. They were built between 1994 and 1999. The Saab 340B was built
40 SXDFC : How about a small freighter that's a twin engine/ prop that could be use as a Beech 99 replacement. I know many people here say pages don't care, but
41 SSTeve : I has sounded to me like any reoffer of the 200/300 would be essentially a shrink of the Q400. And generally, shrinks suck. They advertise the Q400 a
42 JoeCanuck : All it takes is a large enough order and BBD could have the jigs dusted off in no time. They certainly aren't going to do it on spec. The already shu
43 93Sierra : There isn't and hasn't been a replacement for the Beech 1900. The "new" aircraft offered by Viking isn't new, its 40 plus years old with a glass cockp
44 JoeCanuck : You're right on all counts...and all it takes is orders from airlines...which isn't happening. Beach probably would have little trouble restarting th
45 Boeing717200 : The ATR-42 fills this void if an airline really needs something under 60 seats. I don't think we'll ever see a 19 seater again with the new weight req
46 FlyingGoat : I'd like to see Embraer produce a prop similar to their 123. Offer it in 20, 35, and 50 seat variants. It could be heavily based on the current ERJ-13
47 YXwatcherMKE : That program is great for the airlines that have the A/C. But what does the that do for the airline that is looking for new A/C to replace old and ti
48 columba : Wasn´t there a rumor that Saab wants to enter the regional market again ?
49 MasseyBrown : New turboprops have good operating costs but seemingly they cannot be built cheaply enough; ownership costs sink a lot of potential deals. A company c
50 JoeCanuck : As mentioned, the Q's are getting a life extension, which will keep them flying for at least another decade...and there's nothing saying they couldn'
51 JQflightie : This is my question exactly, The airline I work for, the regional division QantasLink, Fly to a destination called Lord Howe Island, Now, they have t
52 MasseyBrown : A service life extension, to me, means 'keeping it flying'. Bombardier's initial, 2009 description of their Q100 program, however, sounded like a str
53 Viscount724 : And very few ATR-42s have been sold in the past few years. Virtually all recent orders have been for the ATR-72. That's a good indication that the ma
54 JoeCanuck : It actually means quite a bit more than that...more like keep it flying as if it was designed from the outset with the extended service life expectan
55 silentbob : Piedmont is not going to replace their Dash 8 fleet. It's already down to 1/3 the size that it was when you factor in the Allegheny Airlines fleet si
56 Post contains images NWAROOSTER : The lack of engine parts is one of the reasons the DC-3 is starting to diminish in numbers. Some have been converted to turbo props. If you want to c
57 Post contains images lightsaber : I see two gaps in the turboprop market, but not enough of a gap to pay for new development. In part as the current aircraft have kept growing to cut t
58 RyanairGuru : The problem is that the AT4 has almost identical operating costs as the AT7. Therefore the operators that might consider buying new turboprops (the r
59 lightsaber : And that is the issue. The short hop US market that funded the development of small turboprops. Now we see people hiring limos instead of dealing wit
60 Sharktail : I know this may be wishful thinking, but what about a Civilian version of the V-22 Osprey? Can carry 24-30 passengers. Modern engines. Can takeoff fro
61 LH707330 : I put a bottle of whisky on a prohibitive CSAM stopping that from happening, but it would be a really cool concept.
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