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Need For New 19-40 Seater Aircraft?  
User currently offlineAndrensn From New Zealand, joined Jun 2012, 66 posts, RR: 0
Posted (11 months 6 days 15 hours ago) and read 9850 times:

With aircraft such as the SAAB 340 and the Beech 1900 becoming older and less efficient is there currently a need for a new aircraft or series of aircrafts in the 19-40 seater market. I feel that unless a manufacturer is able to create a plane to replace aging aircraft of this size many routes and airlines around the globe will cease to exist soon.
Also how many passenger aircraft seating between 19 and 40 PAX are in service globally and how bigger market really is this???

Your thoughts??

61 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineJoKeR From Serbia, joined Nov 2004, 2226 posts, RR: 9
Reply 1, posted (11 months 6 days 15 hours ago) and read 9710 times:

The need is definitely there, though the numbers may not be to very large OEM's liking.

Attempts to replace turbo-prop oldies has been rather disappointing so far, I guess the big OEM's simply don't see this as profitable enough, and others will say that ATR still offers the fantastic 42-600 and that plane is not selling on droves.

But I always had a feeling that the ATR42 is simply too much of a plane for certain required missions. Still wiping my tears over the 328 demise, what a fantastic little performer, but they did not survive either.

So let's see if someone will be brave enough to tackle this market niche.



Kafa, čaj, šraf?
User currently offlinecobra27 From Slovenia, joined May 2001, 1003 posts, RR: 0
Reply 2, posted (11 months 6 days 14 hours ago) and read 9662 times:

True, there is market gap there. Embraer should develop one

User currently offlinePlymSpotter From Spain, joined Jun 2004, 11573 posts, RR: 61
Reply 3, posted (11 months 6 days 14 hours ago) and read 9580 times:

In my opinion the market is there for a ~35 seat STOL frame capable of operating within RFFS Cat 3 requirements and from Code 1 runways - those with declared distances of 799m or less. Much of the original 35 seat market has ceased to exist and what is left focuses around this niche, where there will be a significant void over the coming 10 years.

In other words, a Dash 8-100/200 and Do328 replacement will be required for remote/island operations like Wideroe. If you are currently using a J-41, Saab 340 or EMB-120 then you don't need such a STOL aircraft and the best replacement is most likely the ATR 72 or, if demand is low, the ATR 42 - both offer better performance.

I wouldn't rule out a reintroduction of the Q200 by Viking, it's less costly and risky than a clean sheet design.

Quoting cobra27 (Reply 2):
Embraer should develop one

Embraer have categorically said they will not be returning to the 50 seat and below category.


Dan  



...love is just a camouflage for what resembles rage again...
User currently offlinedrgmobile From Canada, joined Aug 2006, 578 posts, RR: 0
Reply 4, posted (11 months 6 days 7 hours ago) and read 9024 times:

As the largest operator of Dash 8-100s with 36 aircraft, Jazz has indicated that it would be interested in a new 37-seat aircraft but I don't think that's enough of a commitment to justify the launch of a new model. On the small capacity end of the range, the Twin Otter is now being built once again by Viking Aircraft That's a 19-seater

User currently offlinegr09 From Czech Republic, joined Jul 2008, 115 posts, RR: 0
Reply 5, posted (11 months 6 days 1 hour ago) and read 8692 times:

At the bottom of the range (19 passengers) there should be a new version of L-410 soon.
http://www.let.cz/clanek_295_vyvoj-l410-ng.html?lang=2


User currently offlineViscount724 From Switzerland, joined Oct 2006, 24109 posts, RR: 23
Reply 6, posted (11 months 6 days 1 hour ago) and read 8597 times:

Quoting PlymSpotter (Reply 3):
I wouldn't rule out a reintroduction of the Q200 by Viking, it's less costly and risky than a clean sheet design.

Viking owns the type certificates for the DHC-1 through -7 only, not the Dash 8.


User currently offlinePlymSpotter From Spain, joined Jun 2004, 11573 posts, RR: 61
Reply 7, posted (11 months 6 days ago) and read 8486 times:

Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 6):
Viking owns the type certificates for the DHC-1 through -7 only, not the Dash 8.

Bombardier stated they have no intention to return to the Q200 market size, but it doesn't take a giant leap of the imagination to consider that they would sell the type or license production to someone who would. There is no competition between a Q200 size aircraft and any current Bombardier products, so unless they have something planned for the future it would be another revenue stream.


Dan  



...love is just a camouflage for what resembles rage again...
User currently offlineKarlB737 From United States of America, joined Mar 2004, 3047 posts, RR: 10
Reply 8, posted (11 months 5 days 23 hours ago) and read 8424 times:

Quoting Andrensn (Thread starter):
I feel that unless a manufacturer is able to create a plane to replace aging aircraft of this size

Similar threads on this subject in the past have indicated that you can still get an E-120.


User currently onlineTWA772LR From United States of America, joined Nov 2011, 1185 posts, RR: 1
Reply 9, posted (11 months 5 days 22 hours ago) and read 8307 times:

Maybe Pilatus is willing to step up to the plate?


Я говорю по-русский. :)
User currently offlinemacsog6 From Singapore, joined Jan 2010, 520 posts, RR: 0
Reply 10, posted (11 months 5 days 22 hours ago) and read 8278 times:
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With Beech dropping out of the jet business, would they consider putting the B1900D back into production after updating it? The C model faced pax dislike due to the low cabin ceiling, but the D model, whilst a bit awkward looking, was nice to fly.


Sixty Plus Years of Flying! "I fly because it releases my mind from the tyranny of petty things." - Saint Ex
User currently offlinehawaiian717 From United States of America, joined May 1999, 3177 posts, RR: 8
Reply 11, posted (11 months 5 days 22 hours ago) and read 8223 times:

US Airways has openly stated they're looking for a small and slow prop. Manufacturers don't seem to want to build one.

http://crankyflier.com/2013/04/25/ac...and-new-york-to-american-and-more/


User currently onlinefrancoflier From France, joined Oct 2001, 3613 posts, RR: 11
Reply 12, posted (11 months 5 days 19 hours ago) and read 7542 times:

Quoting gr09 (Reply 5):
At the bottom of the range (19 passengers) there should be a new version of L-410 soon.

The LET 410 is a great little aircraft. Very underrated due to its Soviet roots, but a new version equipped with recognizably named equipment and engines would hopefully muster more interest in the west.



Looks like I picked the wrong week to quit posting...
User currently offlinebomber996 From United States of America, joined Aug 2005, 390 posts, RR: 0
Reply 13, posted (11 months 5 days 19 hours ago) and read 7442 times:

Quoting hawaiian717 (Reply 11):

US Airways has openly stated they're looking for a small and slow prop. Manufacturers don't seem to want to build one.

http://crankyflier.com/2013/04/25/ac...more/

Very interesting link.... Thanks for sharing!!

Peace   



AVIATION - A Vacation In Any Town, I Own Nothing
User currently offlineplanemaker From Tuvalu, joined Aug 2003, 5925 posts, RR: 34
Reply 14, posted (11 months 5 days 19 hours ago) and read 7428 times:

Quoting hawaiian717 (Reply 11):
US Airways has openly stated they're looking for a small and slow prop. Manufacturers don't seem to want to build one.

They can always buy the Dornier 228NG.



Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
User currently offlinegr09 From Czech Republic, joined Jul 2008, 115 posts, RR: 0
Reply 15, posted (11 months 5 days 18 hours ago) and read 7250 times:

Quoting francoflier (Reply 12):
Very underrated due to its Soviet roots

The L410 project was initiated based on a demand from Russia looking for an An-2 replacement and Aeroflot was it's biggest customer but the plane itself was designed and manufactured in Czechoslovakia.

I also with it would sell better in the West, let's see how successful the L410NG will be.


User currently offlineseahawk From Germany, joined May 2005, 580 posts, RR: 0
Reply 16, posted (11 months 5 days 18 hours ago) and read 7197 times:

Do228 is too small. On the other hand I wonder if AA could not do with the ATR 42-600.

User currently offlineyenne09 From Canada, joined Jun 2010, 186 posts, RR: 0
Reply 17, posted (11 months 5 days 12 hours ago) and read 6220 times:

In eearlier thread this subject has been discussed a lot. There are many new versions of older aircraft already or that will be ready soon in the category up to 19 aircraft:

1)up to 9 seats: Britten-Norman Turbo-Islander (UK), Evektor EV-55 Outback (Czhek republic), Vulcanair A-Viator (Italy),

2)10-19 seats: Dirgantara N-219 (Indonesia), Gipps Aero GA-18 (a kind of new Nomad) (Australia) ,
Harbin Y-12F (China), Let 410 NG (Czhek Rep.), NAL Saras (India), PZL M-28 Skytruck (Poland),
Technoavia Rysachok (Russia), RUAG Do 228NG (very expensive) (Swiss-Germany),
Viking Twin Otter 400.
3)70-90: PT Ilthabie/PT Eagle Cap «New 70-90 pax aircraft (Enlarged N-250?) (indonesia)

Unfortunately, up to now theris is no new project bet 21 and 50 pax. It seems for a time that Saab was looking to return to commercial aviation but there is no confirmation of that.


User currently offlineAirbusA6 From United Kingdom, joined Apr 2005, 2004 posts, RR: 0
Reply 18, posted (11 months 5 days 10 hours ago) and read 6060 times:

One problem is that everyone has become obsessed with regional jets, thus when countries want to start or reboot their aviation industry, it's the overcrowded RJ market they target. An-148, Mitsubishi MRJ, the Superjet, the ARJ-21, the larger C series etc. Even India is targetting a new RJ.

If one of them had decided to produce an all new 30-40 seater prop, they'd have a whole segment to themselves. Not massive sales, but steady sales and a good way to build up a customer base. After all Embraer worked their way up from small props, and it worked well for them!



it's the bus to stansted (now renamed national express a4 to ruin my username)
User currently onlineTWA772LR From United States of America, joined Nov 2011, 1185 posts, RR: 1
Reply 19, posted (11 months 5 days 10 hours ago) and read 6015 times:

Quoting AirbusA6 (Reply 18):
One problem is that everyone has become obsessed with regional jets,

But with everyone realizing they are a money pit, the worlds RJ fleet will be back to almost nothing but 70+ seaters, with 50 seaters here-and-there.

The turboprop will regain the throne of most profitable regional aircraft, albeit in about 10-20 years.



Я говорю по-русский. :)
User currently offlineJoeCanuck From Canada, joined Dec 2005, 5321 posts, RR: 30
Reply 20, posted (11 months 5 days 4 hours ago) and read 5791 times:

Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 6):

Viking owns the type certificates for the DHC-1 through -7 only, not the Dash 8.

I would be willing to be that BBD would sell the rights for the 100/200/300.

Quoting macsog6 (Reply 10):
With Beech dropping out of the jet business, would they consider putting the B1900D back into production after updating it? The C model faced pax dislike due to the low cabin ceiling, but the D model, whilst a bit awkward looking, was nice to fly.

They still make the King Air, and there is some commonality there so I would venture that it's possible.

One problem is that these turbo props last forever, and there are so many out there...though fewer every year.
At some point, the used supply will shrink enough for new planes to be worthwhile.

Another problem is the price of fuel. People will only pay so much money to fly on a little plane and the CASM is just low enough to make it pay.



What the...?
User currently offlinefreeze3192 From United States of America, joined Oct 2006, 164 posts, RR: 0
Reply 21, posted (11 months 5 days 4 hours ago) and read 5783 times:

The CommutAir President/Owner recently spoke at an RAA conference and mentioned this very subject:

Quote:
Asked about using out-of-production aircraft, Sullivan noted that those in the CommutAir fleet “have had about 30,000 hours of operation, so they’re pretty early in their life cycle”. That does not stop him from wanting a more modern replacement though. “I could use one now. I would be delighted to hear that someone was going to produce a 30-50 seat turboprop with modern technology, materials, and maintenance schedules. We haven’t counted out the ATR 42, but we don’t like the idea of just a single source.”
http://www.hmgaerospace.com/news/show/5265

I think Bombardier would do very well with an updated Q200/Q300 with new engines and avionics. There was a thread a few months back about them considering starting the line back up again, but I think someone claimed that the tooling was destroyed. Who knows. Either way, there's a market for a new 19-50 seat turboprop. Just takes a manufacturer to realize it.



"A passenger bets his life that his pilot is a worthy heir to an ancient tradition of excellence and professionalism."
User currently offlinepanais From Cyprus, joined May 2008, 446 posts, RR: 0
Reply 22, posted (11 months 5 days 4 hours ago) and read 5724 times:

What engine? any new 40-50 seater, needs to be able to beat the CASM of the MRJ and the E-175 neo.

User currently offlineJoeCanuck From Canada, joined Dec 2005, 5321 posts, RR: 30
Reply 23, posted (11 months 5 days 4 hours ago) and read 5685 times:

Quoting panais (Reply 22):
What engine? any new 40-50 seater, needs to be able to beat the CASM of the MRJ and the E-175 neo.

CASM isn't everything. If you only have 30 passengers, the great CASM of those extra seats is just extra expense.



What the...?
User currently onlineYVRLTN From Canada, joined Oct 2006, 2351 posts, RR: 0
Reply 24, posted (11 months 5 days ago) and read 5542 times:

Quoting planemaker (Reply 14):
They can always buy the Dornier 228NG.

If RUAG can build the 228, is there anything to stop them building the 328? Also you should be able to confirm the truth of the below which I have seen stated several times?

Quoting KarlB737 (Reply 8):
Similar threads on this subject in the past have indicated that you can still get an E-120.
Quoting panais (Reply 22):
What engine?

If PWC cant uprate the PT6A further, Im sure they would offer the PW118 which powers the EMB120 still.

Quoting francoflier (Reply 12):
The LET 410 is a great little aircraft. Very underrated due to its Soviet roots, but a new version equipped with recognizably named equipment and engines would hopefully muster more interest in the west.
Quoting drgmobile (Reply 4):
As the largest operator of Dash 8-100s with 36 aircraft, Jazz has indicated that it would be interested in a new 37-seat aircraft but I don't think that's enough of a commitment to justify the launch of a new model. On the small capacity end of the range, the Twin Otter is now being built once again by Viking Aircraft That's a 19-seater

Its an interesting conundrum for Jazz. Q400's are coming in, but as CRJ replacements. The aircraft is far too large for many of the routes.

The main issue I think is that these types are generally operated by second tier carriers like 8P and Hawkair in YVR for example, who dont have the money to buy new metal. They are already operating hand me downs, so when there are no more left Im not sure what they will do. 8P's 1900C's are 28 years old, and the "new" Saab's which replaced the Shorts (which were not much younger and already largely out of service...) are not far behind as early c/n's. Theres no way they can afford a new RUAG 228 or an ATR.



Follow me on twitter for YVR movements @vernonYVR
User currently offlinebriboy From Canada, joined Jul 2001, 358 posts, RR: 1
Reply 25, posted (11 months 5 days ago) and read 5829 times:

BBD has a rebuild program for the Dash-8
http://www.bombardier.ca/en/aerospac...ses/details?docID=0901260d800c2ab8

"Bombardier Commercial Aircraft has launched its Extended Service Program (ESP) to extend the economic life of the Dash 8-100 turboprop to 120,000 flight cycles from the original 80,000 flight cycles."



next up: YYC, SFO, SYD, AKL, WLG, CMB, BKK, SIN, FRA, VCE, JFK
User currently offlinePlymSpotter From Spain, joined Jun 2004, 11573 posts, RR: 61
Reply 26, posted (11 months 4 days 23 hours ago) and read 5774 times:

Quoting briboy (Reply 25):
BBD has a rebuild program for the Dash-8
http://www.bombardier.ca/en/aerospac...ses/details?docID=0901260d800c2ab8

"Bombardier Commercial Aircraft has launched its Extended Service Program (ESP) to extend the economic life of the Dash 8-100 turboprop to 120,000 flight cycles from the original 80,000 flight cycles."

That kicks the ball further down the road, but then what? I know in theory it gives the aircraft 50% more life, but most are likely to be withdrawn well before then as they generally become life expired and costly to maintain.


Dan  



...love is just a camouflage for what resembles rage again...
User currently onlineYVRLTN From Canada, joined Oct 2006, 2351 posts, RR: 0
Reply 27, posted (11 months 4 days 21 hours ago) and read 5753 times:

Quoting YVRLTN (Reply 24):
Quoting francoflier (Reply 12):
The LET 410 is a great little aircraft. Very underrated due to its Soviet roots, but a new version equipped with recognizably named equipment and engines would hopefully muster more interest in the west.
Quoting drgmobile (Reply 4):

Meant to add the L410 has operated in the UK with a couple of carriers now for a while with little negative result.



Follow me on twitter for YVR movements @vernonYVR
User currently offlineRyanairGuru From Australia, joined Oct 2006, 4718 posts, RR: 4
Reply 28, posted (11 months 4 days 20 hours ago) and read 5711 times:

Quoting YVRLTN (Reply 24):
Theres no way they can afford a new RUAG 228 or an ATR.

I believe that this is the biggest problem. The larger carriers are more interested in the ATR/Q400 (UA, AC, QF, NZ etc) and while they do operate smaller props along side them, the biggest market is among small airlines that are flying PSO routes in the Canadian Tundra or Australian Outback (or similar markets).

Thinking here in Australia, Rex, Skytrans, and Brindabella are going to need to replace the SF3/8-100/J41 at some point, but I can't see what they would buy. The best they could do is buy ex-AA SF3 or ex-DL E120 out of storage, as those aircraft were relatively young when they were retired.



Worked Hard, Flew Right
User currently offlineAirNovaBAe146 From Canada, joined Jun 2008, 359 posts, RR: 0
Reply 29, posted (11 months 4 days 19 hours ago) and read 5642 times:

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 20):
One problem is that these turbo props last forever, and there are so many out there...though fewer every year.
At some point, the used supply will shrink enough for new planes to be worthwhile.

How big is the supply of Dash 8/J41s/SF340s/ATR42s/D328Props/E120s and even B1900/J31&J32s/D228Prop on the used aircraft market? I know in the last decade several US airlines (Comair, ASA, ACA, PSA, Mesaba, Pinnacle) have parked huge numbers of those type and many are just sitting around waiting for a buyer. As you noted, once the supply shrinks enough, then basic economics dictate something new will come along.


User currently offlineJoeCanuck From Canada, joined Dec 2005, 5321 posts, RR: 30
Reply 30, posted (11 months 4 days 19 hours ago) and read 5607 times:

Quoting AirNovaBAe146 (Reply 29):

There must be a glut at the moment because nobody is ordering them. It's easy to say you'd like some new aircraft...but all it takes is one order to make it real.

BBD would be thrilled to sell a few Dash 8-200/300's...or Beach with the 1900D, or anyone who can still make what was a desirable aircraft.

When the market becomes available, somebody will make them...like Viking has done with the Twin Otter.



What the...?
User currently offlinesilentbob From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 1963 posts, RR: 1
Reply 31, posted (11 months 4 days 19 hours ago) and read 5584 times:

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 30):
BBD would be thrilled to sell a few Dash 8-200/300's

If that were the case, they wouldn't have shut down the line


User currently offlineAirNovaBAe146 From Canada, joined Jun 2008, 359 posts, RR: 0
Reply 32, posted (11 months 4 days 19 hours ago) and read 5590 times:

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 30):
There must be a glut at the moment because nobody is ordering them. It's easy to say you'd like some new aircraft...but all it takes is one order to make it real.

I've been working in aviation in third world countries for the last ~6 years or so. Anytime an airline or charter operator acquires something "new" to them, it usually is an old Dash 8 or E120 or B1900 from Piedmont or CommutAir or ASA. From talking to the people at the receiving end, they make it seem like there is no shortage of available options.

But the next decade will be interesting, with Jazz and Piedmont having to focus on replacement for their mega Dash 8 fleets. Maybe American Eagle will want to get back into the turboprop game as well.


User currently offlineJoeCanuck From Canada, joined Dec 2005, 5321 posts, RR: 30
Reply 33, posted (11 months 4 days 16 hours ago) and read 5465 times:

Quoting silentbob (Reply 31):

If that were the case, they wouldn't have shut down the line

They would be thrilled to make their aircraft. They stopped building them because customers stopped buying them. If customer decide they want them again, BBD will probably make them again.



What the...?
User currently offlineYLWbased From Hong Kong, joined Jan 2006, 806 posts, RR: 4
Reply 34, posted (11 months 4 days 16 hours ago) and read 5441 times:

There is the DHC6-400, it seats 20.

YLWbased



Hong Kong is not China. Not better or worse, just different.
User currently offlinePlymSpotter From Spain, joined Jun 2004, 11573 posts, RR: 61
Reply 35, posted (11 months 4 days 15 hours ago) and read 5397 times:

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 33):
They would be thrilled to make their aircraft. They stopped building them because customers stopped buying them. If customer decide they want them again, BBD will probably make them again.

Perhaps long term, but Bombardier have made it very clear that for now the Q200/300 line is closed and will remain that way for the foreseeable future.


Dan  



...love is just a camouflage for what resembles rage again...
User currently offlineBMED From United Kingdom, joined Dec 2004, 860 posts, RR: 7
Reply 36, posted (11 months 4 days 12 hours ago) and read 5261 times:

One UK company that jumps to mind is Loganair. With a fleet of SAAB 340s they will need replacing an there isn't a need to jump to anything larger so what is available to them!


Living the jetset life! No better way to be
User currently offlinePlymSpotter From Spain, joined Jun 2004, 11573 posts, RR: 61
Reply 37, posted (11 months 4 days 12 hours ago) and read 5269 times:

Quoting BMED (Reply 36):

One UK company that jumps to mind is Loganair. With a fleet of SAAB 340s they will need replacing an there isn't a need to jump to anything larger so what is available to them!

They have a small fleet of Do 328s - this is a contender, it's still a younger aircraft than the Saabs. Otherwise I suspect the ATR 42 would be their choice. It has much better runway performance than the Saab 340 and similar economics but with more available seats.


Dan  



...love is just a camouflage for what resembles rage again...
User currently offlinesilentbob From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 1963 posts, RR: 1
Reply 38, posted (11 months 4 days 7 hours ago) and read 5166 times:

All of the Colgan/Mesaba Saabs that were retired must be available if someone really wanted them.

User currently onlineNWAROOSTER From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 1011 posts, RR: 3
Reply 39, posted (11 months 4 days 2 hours ago) and read 4963 times:
Support Airliners.net - become a First Class Member!

If my information is correct, there are only about two Saab 340B+ aircraft in storage. They were built between 1994 and 1999. The Saab 340B was built from about 1991 though 1994. There are several of these that are in "storage"and what is the condition of these aircraft maybe very questionable. You are basically looking at a twenty year old aircraft and much older if you want fly the even older Saab 340A, which still have a high percentage of them that are flying. Most will continue flying as no replacement is currently being built or studied. When they run out of cycles and also are needing heavy maintenance, they will go the way of the foo-doo bird.   

User currently offlineSXDFC From United States of America, joined Dec 2007, 2228 posts, RR: 19
Reply 40, posted (11 months 4 days 2 hours ago) and read 4912 times:

How about a small freighter that's a twin engine/ prop that could be use as a Beech 99 replacement. I know many people here say pages don't care, but some of those Ameriflight 99's look ancient!


ALL views, opinions expressed are mine ONLY and are NOT representative of those shared by Southwest Airlines Co.
User currently offlineSSTeve From United States of America, joined Dec 2011, 635 posts, RR: 1
Reply 41, posted (11 months 4 days ago) and read 4813 times:

Quoting PlymSpotter (Reply 35):
Perhaps long term, but Bombardier have made it very clear that for now the Q200/300 line is closed and will remain that way for the foreseeable future.

I has sounded to me like any reoffer of the 200/300 would be essentially a shrink of the Q400. And generally, shrinks suck. They advertise the Q400 as having a breakeven at 1/3rd full. That's not necessarily worse than a 50-seater with a breakeven at 1/2 full, then.


User currently offlineJoeCanuck From Canada, joined Dec 2005, 5321 posts, RR: 30
Reply 42, posted (11 months 3 days 23 hours ago) and read 4753 times:

Quoting PlymSpotter (Reply 35):
Perhaps long term, but Bombardier have made it very clear that for now the Q200/300 line is closed and will remain that way for the foreseeable future.

All it takes is a large enough order and BBD could have the jigs dusted off in no time. They certainly aren't going to do it on spec. The already shuttered the line because of a lack of sales and the ATR42-600 isn't exactly flying off of the shelves.

There just isn't a market yet...and probably won't be for at least a decade. By then, who knows what tech might be available?



What the...?
User currently offline93Sierra From United States of America, joined Apr 2010, 405 posts, RR: 0
Reply 43, posted (11 months 3 days 23 hours ago) and read 4758 times:

There isn't and hasn't been a replacement for the Beech 1900. The "new" aircraft offered by Viking isn't new, its 40 plus years old with a glass cockpit, not to mention its slow as a dog and the Beech 1900 is way more efficient and a better platform.

The 328 prop was way ahead of its time and is a very quick and nice aircraft, just to expensive to buy. The Saab 2000 albeit larger than what we are talking about was in the same boat.

Looking back, the flying shed, the SD-360, was well liked by airlines for having a large aircraft cabin feel, great dispatch reliability and low operating costs....its only downsize was its slow speed.

An updated EMB 120 platform IMHO would be a great performer. With the backing of a large company like EMB and todays technology it doesn't seem that hard to imagine the possible improvements.


User currently offlineJoeCanuck From Canada, joined Dec 2005, 5321 posts, RR: 30
Reply 44, posted (11 months 3 days 23 hours ago) and read 4731 times:

Quoting 93Sierra (Reply 43):

You're right on all counts...and all it takes is orders from airlines...which isn't happening. Beach probably would have little trouble restarting the 1900D line, but nobody is asking for them, or any other small turboprop twin.

Either nobody has the money to buy new or the market is saturated. Either way, you don't build what isn't wanted.



What the...?
User currently offlineBoeing717200 From United States of America, joined Jan 2013, 635 posts, RR: 0
Reply 45, posted (11 months 3 days 23 hours ago) and read 4723 times:

The ATR-42 fills this void if an airline really needs something under 60 seats. I don't think we'll ever see a 19 seater again with the new weight requirements and to be honest, the economics of the 30 seater have imploded in the same way the 50 seat RJ. It just costs too much for the airframe. I think the first EMB-120s went out the door for just under $4 million. A new one would cost over $10 million. An ATR-42 ain't cheap either. Those list around $15 million.

User currently offlineFlyingGoat From United States of America, joined Apr 2013, 114 posts, RR: 0
Reply 46, posted (11 months 3 days 22 hours ago) and read 4647 times:

I'd like to see Embraer produce a prop similar to their 123. Offer it in 20, 35, and 50 seat variants. It could be heavily based on the current ERJ-135, but with new wings and, of course, new engines. Think of it as a more fuel efficient, next gen ERJ-135/145.

Most of the flying public probably wouldn't notice the props on the rear, and the fear of flying on an "old prop" should be greatly reduced.

[Edited 2013-05-24 19:55:32]

User currently offlineYXwatcherMKE From United States of America, joined May 2007, 942 posts, RR: 2
Reply 47, posted (11 months 3 days 22 hours ago) and read 4596 times:

Quoting PlymSpotter (Reply 3):
Quoting briboy (Reply 25):

That program is great for the airlines that have the A/C. But what does the that do for the airline that is looking for new A/C to replace old and tired A/C? Nothing, now if they were to bring that line back into production with the upgrades I would think there would be several airlines that would be knocking on Bombardier Sales Department door asking to buy a number of the A/C. But Bombardier has made it clear that they are not willing to do that, I think that is shortsighted on their part.

Quoting FlyingGoat (Reply 46):
I'd like to see Embraer produce a prop similar to their 123. Offer it in 20, 35, and 50 seat variants. It could be heavily based on the current EMB-135, but with new wings and, of course, new engines. Think of it as a more fuel efficient, next gen EMB-135/145.

Most of the flying public probably wouldn't notice the props on the rear, and the fear of flying on an "old prop" should be greatly reduced.

I agree a great deal with your comment here. They need to make an effort to make the A/C look like a Jet or at least look more modern so that the flying public feel more comfortable about boarding the A/C.
I know that there many routes/cities in the Midwest and Rocky Mountain region that have lost or could lose air service if they lose there EAS status that would benefit by these A/C. And here is another case of shortsightedness on the part of the manufacturer. What really needs to happen is the airlines have to start really making it known loud and clear that they want a prop replacement, and soon.



I miss the 60's & 70's when you felt like a guest on the plane not cattle like today
User currently offlinecolumba From Germany, joined Dec 2004, 7029 posts, RR: 4
Reply 48, posted (11 months 3 days 20 hours ago) and read 4495 times:

Wasn´t there a rumor that Saab wants to enter the regional market again ?


It will forever be a McDonnell Douglas MD 80 , Boeing MD 80 sounds so wrong
User currently offlineMasseyBrown From United States of America, joined Dec 2002, 5222 posts, RR: 7
Reply 49, posted (11 months 3 days 20 hours ago) and read 4466 times:

New turboprops have good operating costs but seemingly they cannot be built cheaply enough; ownership costs sink a lot of potential deals.

A company called Nextant is remanufacturing the Beechjet/Hawker 400 adding new engines, new avionics, and airframe tweaking. Nextant says the result is added range, speed, and improved fuel burn at half the price of a new plane; they got FAA as well as non-US certifications and are in production with orders for about 175 of the rebuilt craft so far.

I wonder if there is a fifty-or-fewer seat passenger aircraft that could benefit from similar treatment - like the successful upgrading of old Convair 240/340/440s to 580/600/640 models.



Consilivm: Cave ne nothi te vexant
User currently offlineJoeCanuck From Canada, joined Dec 2005, 5321 posts, RR: 30
Reply 50, posted (11 months 3 days 18 hours ago) and read 4354 times:

Quoting MasseyBrown (Reply 49):

As mentioned, the Q's are getting a life extension, which will keep them flying for at least another decade...and there's nothing saying they couldn't be extended again.

I'm sure updating will happen to others as well.



What the...?
User currently offlineJQflightie From Australia, joined Mar 2009, 941 posts, RR: 1
Reply 51, posted (11 months 3 days 18 hours ago) and read 4328 times:

Quoting PlymSpotter (Reply 3):
In other words, a Dash 8-100/200 and Do328 replacement will be required for remote/island operations like Wideroe. If you are currently using a J-41, Saab 340 or EMB-120 then you don't need such a STOL aircraft and the best replacement is most likely the ATR 72 or, if demand is low, the ATR 42 - both offer better performance.

I wouldn't rule out a reintroduction of the Q200 by Viking, it's less costly and risky than a clean sheet design.

This is my question exactly, The airline I work for, the regional division QantasLink, Fly to a destination called Lord Howe Island, Now, they have to keep 4 Dash8-200 purely for this flight, as its the only aircraft that can fly into LDH .
For those of you who do not know or have not heard of LDH its 787kms from SYD with a runway size of 886meters.
and requires, most of the time to be weight restricted, also carry a life raft too, QantasLink is the only airline that flies into the island.
These aircraft are going to need to be replaced soon, the oldest one is from 1995 and the newest one is from 1998.



Next Trip: PER-DPS-LOP-CGK-KUL-PVG-LHR, LCY-MAD-VLC, BCN-LYS-TLS-IST-JED-KUL-SGN-CAN-MEL
User currently offlineMasseyBrown From United States of America, joined Dec 2002, 5222 posts, RR: 7
Reply 52, posted (11 months 3 days 9 hours ago) and read 3996 times:

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 50):
As mentioned, the Q's are getting a life extension, which will keep them flying for at least another decade...and there's nothing saying they couldn't be extended again.

A service life extension, to me, means 'keeping it flying'. Bombardier's initial, 2009 description of their Q100 program, however, sounded like a structural analysis and patch project. (I don't mean to dismiss the value of their effort, but the scope of work sounds quite limited.)

Something more drastic that adds greater utility to the airframe would sell - if it can be done for the right price. Bombardier may not be the right company to do it.



Consilivm: Cave ne nothi te vexant
User currently offlineViscount724 From Switzerland, joined Oct 2006, 24109 posts, RR: 23
Reply 53, posted (11 months 3 days 6 hours ago) and read 3850 times:

Quoting Boeing717200 (Reply 45):
The ATR-42 fills this void if an airline really needs something under 60 seats. I

And very few ATR-42s have been sold in the past few years. Virtually all recent orders have been for the ATR-72. That's a good indication that the market for smaller turboprops is very limited. The tendency in the entire industry, from turboprop to widebodies, has been to the larger members of the family.


User currently offlineJoeCanuck From Canada, joined Dec 2005, 5321 posts, RR: 30
Reply 54, posted (11 months 3 days 4 hours ago) and read 3662 times:

Quoting MasseyBrown (Reply 52):
A service life extension, to me, means 'keeping it flying'.

It actually means quite a bit more than that...more like keep it flying as if it was designed from the outset with the extended service life expectancy...which really isn't that rare. No amount of testing can substitute for a few decades of real world flying, so planes are given quite conservative specifications when new, partially for liability reasons.

There might not be much more to the extension than increased inspections and a few braces.

Quoting MasseyBrown (Reply 52):
Something more drastic that adds greater utility to the airframe would sell - if it can be done for the right price. Bombardier may not be the right company to do it.

The problem is increasing the capabilities of the aircraft can reduce the service life. Keeping specs much as they are, it's possible to predict fatigue and wear paths. As well, only fixing what needs fixing keeps the costs down for airlines.

These smallish turboprops do what they do very well. The Dash 8-200, for example, is basically a -100, with de-rated -300 engines so it actually is quite a hot rod.



What the...?
User currently offlinesilentbob From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 1963 posts, RR: 1
Reply 55, posted (11 months 3 days 3 hours ago) and read 3611 times:

Quoting AirNovaBAe146 (Reply 32):
But the next decade will be interesting, with Jazz and Piedmont having to focus on replacement for their mega Dash 8 fleets

Piedmont is not going to replace their Dash 8 fleet. It's already down to 1/3 the size that it was when you factor in the Allegheny Airlines fleet sizes before they were merged.

Quoting briboy (Reply 25):
BBD has a rebuild program for the Dash-8
http://www.bombardier.ca/en/aerospac...ses/details?docID=0901260d800c2ab8

"Bombardier Commercial Aircraft has launched its Extended Service Program (ESP) to extend the economic life of the Dash 8-100 turboprop to 120,000 flight cycles from the original 80,000 flight cycles."

The extension is expensive and includes a lot of things many of the airlines flying the Dash don't want. There are also a number of parts that are increasingly difficult to locate. It doesn't matter how many cycles they add if you can't find the parts to fix the airplanes.


User currently onlineNWAROOSTER From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 1011 posts, RR: 3
Reply 56, posted (11 months 3 days 1 hour ago) and read 3532 times:
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Quoting silentbob (Reply 55):
Quoting briboy (Reply 25):
BBD has a rebuild program for the Dash-8
http://www.bombardier.ca/en/aerospac...ses/details?docID=0901260d800c2ab8

"Bombardier Commercial Aircraft has launched its Extended Service Program (ESP) to extend the economic life of the Dash 8-100 turboprop to 120,000 flight cycles from the original 80,000 flight cycles."

The extension is expensive and includes a lot of things many of the airlines flying the Dash don't want. There are also a number of parts that are increasingly difficult to locate. It doesn't matter how many cycles they add if you can't find the parts to fix the airplanes.

The lack of engine parts is one of the reasons the DC-3 is starting to diminish in numbers. Some have been converted to turbo props. If you want to continue flying a particular aircraft type, you are going to have spend the necessary money to continue flying them. You cannot wait for the aircraft manufactures to build a new aircraft to fit the smaller aircraft needs unless there is sufficient demand. Right now that demand is not there as there are still small aircraft available for the remainder of this decade.   


User currently offlinelightsaber From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 12443 posts, RR: 100
Reply 57, posted (11 months 2 days 22 hours ago) and read 3401 times:
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I see two gaps in the turboprop market, but not enough of a gap to pay for new development. In part as the current aircraft have kept growing to cut the CASM.

1. A new modern 1900D replacement with CFRP wing (aluminum body).
2. A new modern 50 seat turboprop.

The first is due to the market I perceive with a faster aircraft sans F/A. The only way small turboprops will thrive is by cutting costs and that means removing the F/A for below 50 passengers. A plane that has better short field performance, a little more speed, and a lot better fuel efficiency. But what engine? To make this plane competitive would require a modern engine. That won't happen from civilian funding... It would have to be a military derived engine and I'm simply not aware of anything that small in development.   I do not believe the current airframes meet efficiency needs nor is there enough demand to develop a new type.

The 50 seater has much more commercial potential. But again, I'm stuck on finding a business case for new engines as well as the airframe...  
Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 30):
There must be a glut at the moment because nobody is ordering them. It's easy to say you'd like some new aircraft...but all it takes is one order to make it real.

Sigh... I must agree. My above post is as an enthusiast. I hope someone else can find a business case, for I am unable.  
Quoting NWAROOSTER (Reply 56):
The lack of engine parts is one of the reasons the DC-3 is starting to diminish in numbers. Some have been converted to turbo props.

A neat kit, but not needed by most operators.

Quoting NWAROOSTER (Reply 56):
Right now that demand is not there as there are still small aircraft available for the remainder of this decade.

And with improved roads, less need for replacements. The "TSA delay" killed off too much short haul that was the market of these sizes.

Lightsaber



I've posted how many times?!?
User currently offlineRyanairGuru From Australia, joined Oct 2006, 4718 posts, RR: 4
Reply 58, posted (11 months 2 days 20 hours ago) and read 3345 times:

Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 53):
Virtually all recent orders have been for the ATR-72. That's a good indication that the market for smaller turboprops is very limited

The problem is that the AT4 has almost identical operating costs as the AT7. Therefore the operators that might consider buying new turboprops (the regional affiliates of the likes of AF, AC, WS, UA, QF, VA, NZ etc) are going for the larger model. It practically makes as much sense to fly an AT7 with 45 passengers on board as flying a full AT4.

The airlines that need the smaller prop for the most part can't absorb the capital costs of buying new. I'm thinking of the likes of Air Creebec, Provincial Airlines, Air Labrador, Pascan, ERA Alaska, Great Lakes, REX, Skytrans, Brindabella...

Quoting lightsaber (Reply 57):
The "TSA delay" killed off too much short haul that was the market of these sizes.

In the contiguous United States I agree, the intra-CA and intra-PA stuff that is the bread and butter of the Skywest E120s and Piedmont Dashes is seemingly dying out.

In other places (again, I use Canada, Alaska and Australia as examples) there is a market, but not one that could readily absorb the capital costs of new aircraft.



Worked Hard, Flew Right
User currently offlinelightsaber From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 12443 posts, RR: 100
Reply 59, posted (11 months 2 days 8 hours ago) and read 3141 times:
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Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 58):
In other places (again, I use Canada, Alaska and Australia as examples) there is a market, but not one that could readily absorb the capital costs of new aircraft.

And that is the issue. The short hop US market that funded the development of small turboprops. Now we see people hiring limos instead of dealing with the airport.

Lightsaber



I've posted how many times?!?
User currently offlineSharktail From United States of America, joined Feb 2012, 26 posts, RR: 0
Reply 60, posted (11 months 2 days 8 hours ago) and read 3094 times:

I know this may be wishful thinking, but what about a Civilian version of the V-22 Osprey? Can carry 24-30 passengers. Modern engines. Can takeoff from any helipad, meaning that you actually could open up new markets, especially on islands or in gridlocked cities.

I have a feeling that the cost may be prohibitive though...


User currently offlineLH707330 From United States of America, joined Jun 2012, 597 posts, RR: 0
Reply 61, posted (11 months 2 days 6 hours ago) and read 2988 times:

Quoting Sharktail (Reply 60):

I put a bottle of whisky on a prohibitive CSAM stopping that from happening, but it would be a really cool concept.


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