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Philippine Airlines To Fly To Brazil But Via?  
User currently offlinedforce1 From Canada, joined Jul 2005, 505 posts, RR: 0
Posted (1 year 3 months 1 week 4 days 18 hours ago) and read 7158 times:

The Philippines and Brazil just signed its first ever air agreement. Philippine Airlines announced earlier this year that it wanted to serve Sao Paulo. But it is unable to do the route non-stop which leaves the only two questions remaining:

Which stopover will be made utilizing fifth freedom rights? AND
Which aircraft in the PAL fleet will likely be utilized?

Read More Here:
http://www.philippineflightnetwork.c...ne-airlines-flights-to-brazil.html



Image Source: Exciting Centennial of Philippine Aviation Blog

27 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineAkiestar From Philippines, joined May 2009, 784 posts, RR: 0
Reply 1, posted (1 year 3 months 1 week 4 days 17 hours ago) and read 7119 times:

I won't be surprised if it tried doing this in the other direction. I did suggest MEX, though others have also suggested JED and BEY.

User currently offlineMaverickM11 From United States of America, joined Apr 2000, 17447 posts, RR: 46
Reply 2, posted (1 year 3 months 1 week 4 days 17 hours ago) and read 7089 times:

They just canned DEL, which is a lot bigger and closer. How the heck are they going to make Brazil work?


E pur si muove -Galileo
User currently offlineabrelosojos From Venezuela, joined May 2005, 5089 posts, RR: 55
Reply 3, posted (1 year 3 months 1 week 4 days 17 hours ago) and read 7059 times:

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 2):

They just canned DEL, which is a lot bigger and closer. How the heck are they going to make Brazil work?

= Yup. This is an airline with a lot of pipe dreams.

Saludos,
Alex



Live, and let live.
User currently offlineMIflyer12 From United States of America, joined Feb 2013, 1001 posts, RR: 0
Reply 4, posted (1 year 3 months 1 week 4 days 17 hours ago) and read 7049 times:

Quoting Akiestar (Reply 1):
I did suggest MEX, though others have also suggested JED and BEY.

MEX isn't going to work unless they want to do GRU-MEX-XXX-MNL; MEX is a hot and high airport. AM stops in TIJ on MEX-NRT, and that's a lot shorter than MEX-MNL.


User currently offlineAngMoh From Singapore, joined Nov 2011, 485 posts, RR: 0
Reply 5, posted (1 year 3 months 1 week 4 days 17 hours ago) and read 6947 times:

Quoting dforce1 (Thread starter):
The Philippines and Brazil just signed its first ever air agreement. Philippine Airlines announced earlier this year that it wanted to serve Sao Paulo. But it is unable to do the route non-stop which leaves the only two questions remaining:

Singing an air agreement is no indication of starting flights. I have seen news of some crazy open skies agreements signed which will never lead to any flights. A good example is the Singapore and Cape Verde open skies agreement signed September last year. No commercial relevance whatsoever.


User currently offlineAkiestar From Philippines, joined May 2009, 784 posts, RR: 0
Reply 6, posted (1 year 3 months 1 week 4 days 17 hours ago) and read 6877 times:

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 2):
They just canned DEL, which is a lot bigger and closer. How the heck are they going to make Brazil work?

Due to poor sales. While the airline may be at fault to an extent, I am doubtful it is solely the airline's fault.

Quoting MIflyer12 (Reply 4):
MEX isn't going to work unless they want to do GRU-MEX-XXX-MNL; MEX is a hot and high airport. AM stops in TIJ on MEX-NRT, and that's a lot shorter than MEX-MNL.

I believe that's the case for all of PR's trans-Pacific flights. Again, we're merely speculating here, so we will never really know how this will be routed until, God forbid, they announce a route.


User currently offlinediesel33 From United States of America, joined Mar 2004, 301 posts, RR: 0
Reply 7, posted (1 year 3 months 1 week 4 days 16 hours ago) and read 6775 times:

Quoting Akiestar (Reply 6):
I am doubtful it is solely the airline's fault.

Would you care to share your thoughts?


User currently offlineAkiestar From Philippines, joined May 2009, 784 posts, RR: 0
Reply 8, posted (1 year 3 months 1 week 4 days 15 hours ago) and read 6624 times:

Quoting diesel33 (Reply 7):
Would you care to share your thoughts?

The thing about this route is that similar to PR heavily advertised its route to DEL before and when it started, so there has to be some awareness that PR has a route to India: its first in a half-century. There were billboards in MNL announcing the service, newspaper ad spreads announcing seat sales to DEL, and a big rollout of the route (PR sent the 77W on the inaugural flight), so I don't think it's necessarily a lack of awareness that translated to poor sales. Other factors would have to be looked at as well.

For one, MNL-DEL is flown at an ungodly hour: 1:00 am arrival in DEL, and an early morning arrival in MNL, both for the now-discontinued non-stop and the one-stop via BKK. If PR intended to capture a share of the India-U.S. market, it wouldn't do so well given the route's schedule, especially given that Indians are restricted nationals under Philippine law, and they will need pre-entry visas to enter the Philippines (so they cannot just leave MNL while waiting for the evening flight to LAX, for example). However, I don't think we can blame PR for lacking aircraft to make DEL work: the route was constricted by the scheduling of the A320s, which are the workhorse of the PR fleet, and PR is not necessarily an airline with the capital to buy planes left and right to boost its capacity. The only logical way PR would be able to fly this route with the aircraft that it currently has is to fly it at night, when its aircraft utilization is lower. (If PR can make the economics work somehow, I'd like to see them try India again with the new A321 when it comes online this August.)

Another factor that we'd have to look into is the size of the market. Undeniably, there is a decently-sized Indian community in the Philippines (150,000 as of 2008), but not the other way around (500-1000, depending on who you ask). However, admittedly, there are few economic linkages between the two countries. It can be argued that PR wanted to grow those economic linkages, and it took a gamble, but I am still doubtful that they should be solely blamed for trying to stimulate trade between the Philippines and India by starting a route, and then failing afterward. I'm also curious as to how BKK-DEL worked for them, given the competition on this route by TG, AI and 9W: home airlines with a natural home advantage.

Also, it seems that the Philippines is distrustful of India's rise in the world, with 57% of Filipinos believing that India has a negative influence on the world according to a 2006 BBC survey (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/4676304.stm). Yes, these perceptions can change (and for one, I think India would be a positive world influence), but we don't know as to how much they have (or have not) changed.

[Edited 2013-05-22 09:55:48]

User currently offlinewedgetail737 From United States of America, joined Aug 2003, 5902 posts, RR: 6
Reply 9, posted (1 year 3 months 1 week 4 days 15 hours ago) and read 6612 times:
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PR could plea to the Canadian Government for YVR-Sao Paulo with 777-300ER's.

User currently offlinemigair54 From Spain, joined Jun 2007, 1701 posts, RR: 0
Reply 10, posted (1 year 3 months 1 week 4 days 14 hours ago) and read 6510 times:

it they start, something that i really doubt, They will make a huge loss in any market they try... I don´t see any future on the route to brazil from MNL... It´s a waste of equipments and crew resources, they should try to codeshare with someone and that´s it much easier.

Soon, ET and KQ will have flights, so ADD or NBO are no go, DXB has EK and they will increase soon I think, Doha has Qatar, SQ goes via BCN, KLM via AMS, MEX and JNB difficult because elevation is not good for B77W, it will be restricted. VAncouver??? I don´t think Canadian will ever allow.... I really see it difficult, maybe LAX like Korean does...


User currently offlinePlymSpotter From Spain, joined Jun 2004, 11646 posts, RR: 60
Reply 11, posted (1 year 3 months 1 week 4 days 14 hours ago) and read 6464 times:

MAD, BCN or LIS would be my suggestion, in that order.

In which case I can't see the XYZ-GRU-XYZ portion being an issue, but filling the sectors to and from Manila could well be. Still, it fits with their planned return to Europe.


Dan  



...love is just a camouflage for what resembles rage again...
User currently offlineairbazar From United States of America, joined Sep 2003, 8321 posts, RR: 10
Reply 12, posted (1 year 3 months 1 week 4 days 14 hours ago) and read 6415 times:

MNL-LAX-GRU, MNL-SFO-GRU, or even MNL-LAS-GRU are the only routes that would make any sense.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Ce...Filipinos_in_the_United_States.png


User currently offlinebehramjee From Canada, joined Aug 2003, 4772 posts, RR: 43
Reply 13, posted (1 year 3 months 1 week 4 days 14 hours ago) and read 6383 times:

PAL should not fly to GRU period...the market size between Brazil and Manila is minimal i.e. 20,000 pax flew in 2012.

PAL is better off code sharing to GRU with EY or EK via UAE or via YYZ with AC !


User currently offlineTomassjc From United States of America, joined Jan 2010, 868 posts, RR: 2
Reply 14, posted (1 year 3 months 1 week 4 days 13 hours ago) and read 6322 times:
Support Airliners.net - become a First Class Member!

Quoting abrelosojos (Reply 3):
= Yup. This is an airline with a lot of pipe dreams


The more I read the posts about PAL, the more I think someone in their planning department has had one too many San Migs! As excited as I am in regards to the growth at PR, most of us who follow Filipino aviation know that there are immediate obstacles to overcome before any major growth can successfully happen. Like getting beyond Cat II, finding slots at NAIA for all the new birds coming into the fleet and improving facilities and product!

Like my namesake from biblical times roughly said, I have doubts and I'll believe it when I see it!

Baby steps PAL, baby steps.

Tomas in SJC



When once you have tasted flight, you will forever walk the Earth with your eyes turned skyward -Leonardo DaVinci
User currently offlinedrgmobile From Canada, joined Aug 2006, 637 posts, RR: 0
Reply 15, posted (1 year 3 months 1 week 4 days 13 hours ago) and read 6289 times:

This could have absolutely nothing to do with Philippine/Brazil traffic. There is a fair bit of traffic between Japan and Brazil and a lot of this currently flows through Canada and the U.S.

User currently offlinelindberghflyer From United States of America, joined Feb 2013, 28 posts, RR: 0
Reply 16, posted (1 year 3 months 1 week 4 days 12 hours ago) and read 6215 times:

If its just a fuel stop, Could PPT work?

User currently offlinelindberghflyer From United States of America, joined Feb 2013, 28 posts, RR: 0
Reply 17, posted (1 year 3 months 1 week 4 days 12 hours ago) and read 6173 times:

...or KWI, which has a large Filipino guest worker population. They would, however be competing with KU on the MNL-KWI segment.

User currently offlineViscount724 From Switzerland, joined Oct 2006, 25191 posts, RR: 22
Reply 18, posted (1 year 3 months 1 week 4 days 9 hours ago) and read 5952 times:

There was another thread on this just last month.
PAL Philippines Airlines (PR) To Sao Paulo (by jpen4314 Apr 5 2013 in Civil Aviation)


User currently offlineairbazar From United States of America, joined Sep 2003, 8321 posts, RR: 10
Reply 19, posted (1 year 3 months 1 week 4 days 9 hours ago) and read 5924 times:

Quoting lindberghflyer (Reply 17):
...or KWI, which has a large Filipino guest worker population. They would, however be competing with KU on the MNL-KWI segment.

Large for Kuwait but still very small nevertheless if htis page is even remotely correct.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Overseas_Filipino

The issue is not just traffic between MNL and the intermediary point. That's easy to find. The issue is traffic between that intermediary point and Brazil. That makes the USA, Canada the only viable options as I don't believe PAL would be able to compete with the ME carriers and I don't think there is enough traffic between Saudi Arabia and Brazil.


User currently offlinecrownvic From United States of America, joined Oct 2004, 1902 posts, RR: 5
Reply 20, posted (1 year 3 months 1 week 4 days 4 hours ago) and read 5544 times:

Quoting airbazar (Reply 12):
MNL-LAX-GRU, MNL-SFO-GRU, or even MNL-LAS-GRU are the only routes that would make any sense.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Ce...Filipinos_in_the_United_States.png

There are lots of Brazilians that want to come to Vegas too, so the transit through LAS is not so far fetched. Of course, the Cat 1 status will decide anything like this to happen.


User currently offlineAkiestar From Philippines, joined May 2009, 784 posts, RR: 0
Reply 21, posted (1 year 3 months 1 week 3 days 22 hours ago) and read 5052 times:

Quoting Tomassjc (Reply 14):
The more I read the posts about PAL, the more I think someone in their planning department has had one too many San Migs!

But it's the CEO making these claims, not the planning department. Granted, Ramon Ang is known as a visionary, but is that necessarily because he's drinking too much of his own product? 

Quoting airbazar (Reply 12):
MNL-LAX-GRU, MNL-SFO-GRU, or even MNL-LAS-GRU are the only routes that would make any sense.
Quoting airbazar (Reply 19):
The issue is traffic between that intermediary point and Brazil. That makes the USA, Canada the only viable options
Quoting crownvic (Reply 20):
There are lots of Brazilians that want to come to Vegas too, so the transit through LAS is not so far fetched. Of course, the Cat 1 status will decide anything like this to happen.

While it makes sense traffic-wise, it will not make sense from a practical point of view. Brazil is one of a handful of countries where Filipinos have visa-free access, and if they do decide to go to Brazil and take advantage of any future PR service, transiting through the United States will be a very big inconvenience, especially if they don't already have B1/B2 visas in their passports.


User currently offlineUnited1689 From United States of America, joined May 2013, 71 posts, RR: 0
Reply 22, posted (1 year 3 months 1 week 3 days 19 hours ago) and read 4308 times:

Quoting MIflyer12 (Reply 4):
MEX isn't going to work unless they want to do GRU-MEX-XXX-MNL; MEX is a hot and high airport. AM stops in TIJ on MEX-NRT, and that's a lot shorter than MEX-MNL.

AM stops through TIJ because of range issues on their 767-200s. However I agree that MEX probably won't work because there is already 2 flights a day from MEX to GRU. I would think SFO would work... maybe LAD.



The act of "driving" is only possible with a manual transmission.
User currently offlineairbazar From United States of America, joined Sep 2003, 8321 posts, RR: 10
Reply 23, posted (1 year 3 months 1 week 3 days 19 hours ago) and read 4225 times:

Quoting Akiestar (Reply 21):
While it makes sense traffic-wise, it will not make sense from a practical point of view. Brazil is one of a handful of countries where Filipinos have visa-free access, and if they do decide to go to Brazil and take advantage of any future PR service, transiting through the United States will be a very big inconvenience, especially if they don't already have B1/B2 visas in their passports.

True but as pointed out many times, there's really no market between the Philipines and Brazil so that point is sort of muted   According a post above the market is about 20,000 annual and I suspect that the majority of those were shipping related so the visa issue is also muted as most seamen as likely to already have a visa to enter the US. The key to the viability of this route is to find an intermediate point that has a market to both the Philipines and Brazil, and that is LAX, SFO, and LAS.

Quoting crownvic (Reply 20):
There are lots of Brazilians that want to come to Vegas too, so the transit through LAS is not so far fetched. Of course, the Cat 1 status will decide anything like this to happen.

Indeed on both counts but is there enough demand from Vegas to Brazil? The demand has to be 2-way for the route to be viable. Perhaps 3x weekly would work?


User currently offlineAkiestar From Philippines, joined May 2009, 784 posts, RR: 0
Reply 24, posted (1 year 3 months 1 week 3 days 18 hours ago) and read 3798 times:

Quoting airbazar (Reply 23):
According a post above the market is about 20,000 annual and I suspect that the majority of those were shipping related so the visa issue is also muted as most seamen as likely to already have a visa to enter the US.

I don't have hard data for this, but as far as I know, while most shipping-related traffic (i.e. seafarers) from the Philippines is to Europe and the U.S., I am doubtful this is the case beyond that, including Brazil. There are a number of seafarers who are permanently settled in the country, but most Filipinos there are religious missionaries.

http://web.archive.org/web/200910190...gov.ph/brazil2009/backgrounder.htm

I was doing some research, and seamen would be issued a combined C-1/D visa. While the visa allows for the bearer to transit the United States, it's to transit so that the bearer can make it to the port of call of his/her ship. I am not sure if this visa would still be valid if someone were to transit the United States for any other reason.

Also, according to the data, significantly more Brazilians go to the Philippines than the other way around. As pointed in the previous thread about this topic, Brazilians now form the tenth-largest expatriate community in the Philippines, and we'll have to see just how many more people decide to come here for employment or other reasons. While not an indicator of this route's success, there is some traffic coming in, and this is perhaps one of the few places where there are more people from that country coming here than the usual flow of people here going there.


User currently offlinejfkgig From Brazil, joined Apr 2011, 38 posts, RR: 0
Reply 25, posted (1 year 3 months 1 week 3 days 12 hours ago) and read 3434 times:

I believe that those who assume that there is no market for travel between Brazil and the Philippines are incorrect. In fact, there are a tremendous number of Philippinos working in the Brazilian offshore oil industry, and many more employed on the cruise industry. I don't know much about the cruise workers, but there are many thousands of workers from the Philippines who work in cycles on the platforms offshore, and get flown home regularly by their employers several times per year. Both of these industries are centered in Rio de Janeiro, which is the point of embarkation -- not GRU. Vale, also with HQ in GIG, also operates from its local offices in Manila.

If this route happens, I think it would be more likely to route to GIG than GRU, as GIG has the offshore workers who will use this route, and it is much easier to get a slot there than GRU. I have doubts that PAL has the resources to do this route, but it would have an advantage over all carriers save EK in being able to fly GIG-MNL in one stop (an advantage which would be lost if traffic had to fly to GRU to get the flight).

I don't know if the route authorities are available, but there is a real lack of capacity from GIG to southern Africa, with plenty of Brazilian oil, mining, and engineering industry demand between GIG and JNB and LAD, and I could also see LOS being useful to avoid connecting in Europe.


User currently offlineyellowtail From United States of America, joined Jun 2005, 6128 posts, RR: 2
Reply 26, posted (1 year 3 months 1 week 3 days 10 hours ago) and read 3322 times:

Quoting United1689 (Reply 22):
AM stops through TIJ because of range issues on their 767-200s.

No, AM stops even when it is the 777. MEX is hot and high....and the aircraft can't do it without a severe penalty.



When in doubt, hold on to your altitude. No-one has ever collided with the sky.
User currently offlineSA7700 From South Africa, joined Dec 2003, 3431 posts, RR: 26
Reply 27, posted (1 year 3 months 1 week 13 hours ago) and read 2838 times:
AIRLINERS.NET CREW
HEAD MODERATOR

This thread will be locked as a new thread has been opened, announcing LAX as the potential stopover point. If you would like to follow this thread, kindly use this link: PAL Set To Land In Sao Paulo Via LAX

Thanks and regards,

SA7700

[Edited 2013-05-26 23:13:25]


When you are doing stuff that nobody has done before, there is no manual – Kevin McCloud (Grand Designs)
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